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August 5, 2011
Bosch
Performance Highlights
Y/E Dec. (` cr) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Reported PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
2QCY10 1,700 319 18.8 210 % chg (yoy) 21.1 18.5 (40)bp 32.9 Angel est. 1,950 363 18.6 249 diff. (%) 5.6 4.4 (21)bp 12.0
`6,945 `7,304
12 Months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Auto Ancillary 21,891 0.3 7,480/5,671 2,517 10 17,306 5,211 BOSH.BO BOS@IN
Bosch reported better-than-expected performance during 2QCY2012 on account of sustained momentum in the diesel cars, light commercial vehicle (LCV) and tractor segments. Good demand for starter and generator products and exports also boosted the companys performance. We revise our revenue and earnings estimates to account for better-than-expected 2QCY2011 performance and recommend Accumulate on the stock. Strong operating performance during 2QCY2011: Bosch reported strong 21.1% yoy (down 1.3% qoq) growth in its top line to `2,059cr, driven by a 22.1% yoy (down 1.4% qoq) increase in the auto segments revenue and 29.7% yoy (down 10.1% qoq) jump in the non-auto segments revenue. During the quarter, the diesel systems segment grew by ~23% yoy and the automotive aftermarket segment reported a ~15% yoy increase in sales. EBITDA margin posted a marginal 40bp yoy (50bp qoq) decline on account of input cost pressures. Noticeably, a sharp 311bp yoy decline in other expenses helped Bosch to maintain its margin. Led by strong top-line performance and a substantial jump in interest and other income, net profit posted better-than-expected 32.9% yoy (1.6% qoq) growth to `279cr. Outlook and valuation: We expect Bosch to register a ~17% CAGR in its net sales over CY201012E, leading to a ~16% CAGR in earnings. As a result, we estimate Bosch to post EPS of `327.2 and `365.2 for CY2011E and CY2012E, respectively. At `6,945, the stock is trading at 21.2x CY2011E and 19x CY2012E earnings, respectively. We recommend Accumulate on the stock with a target price of `7,304, valuing it at 20x CY2012E earnings.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 71.2 15.6 5.7 7.5
3m (5.0) 6.3
Key financials
Y/E Dec. (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
CY2009 4,822 4.8 540 (2.4) 16.5 171.8 40.4 6.4 15.9 15.7 3.9 30.6
CY2010 6,682 38.6 858 59.1 18.2 273.4 25.4 5.3 20.9 26.2 2.7 18.2
CY2011E 7,937 18.8 1,027 19.7 18.3 327.2 21.2 4.2 20.0 25.9 2.2 12.6
CY2012E 9,124 15.0 1,147 11.6 17.9 365.2 19.0 3.5 18.6 23.7 1.9 10.8
Yaresh Kothari
022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com
2QCY11 2QCY10 % chg 1HCY11 1HCY10 % chg 2,059 564 27.4 236 11.4 582 28.3 299 14.5 1,681 379 18.4 (45) 50 28 401 19.5 122 30.5 279 13.5 31.4 88.8 1,700 396 23.3 199 11.7 489 28.8 296 17.4 1,381 319 18.8 (24) 48 16 312 18.3 102 32.7 210 12.3 31.4 66.8 32.9 32.9 20.2 84.9 3.4 70.8 28.8 21.7 18.5 1.0 19.0 18.1 21.1 42.3 4,145 1,310 31.6 451 10.9 1,011 24.4 600 14.5 3,372 773 18.6 (91) 97 39 805 19.4 252 31.3 553 13.3 31.4 176.2 3,296 915 27.8 418 12.7 816 24.8 523 15.9 2,672 624 18.9 (49) 105 36 603 18.3 191 31.7 412 12.5 31.4 131.3 34.2 34.2 31.9 85.5 (7.5) 9.9 33.4 26.2 23.8 14.8 23.9 8.1 25.8 43.1
2QCY11 2QCY10 1,834 204 2,037 13 2,024 335 21 355 45 (1) 401 18.3 10.2 17.4 1,502 157 1,659 3 1,656 285 9 294 24 312 19.0 5.6 17.7
% chg 1HCY11 1HCY10 22.1 29.7 22.8 22.2 17.3 136.3 20.8 84.9 28.8 3,694 431 4,124 18 4,107 684 42 726 91 11 805 18.5 9.7 17.6 2,911 332 3,244 7 3,237 534 32 566 49 11 603 18.3 9.7 17.4
% chg 26.9 29.6 27.1 26.9 28.2 30.0 28.3 85.6 (0.3) 33.5
7 (118.0)
August 5, 2011
Strong top-line performance; beats estimates: Bosch reported strong 21.1% yoy (down 1.3% qoq) growth in its top line to `2,059cr, ahead of our expectation of `1,950cr. Top-line growth was led by strong 22.1% yoy (down 1.4% qoq) growth in the auto segment to `1,834cr. Non-auto business also recorded strong growth of 29.7% yoy (down 10.1% qoq) to `204cr. The diesel systems and automotive aftermarket segment posted strong growth of ~23% and ~15% yoy, respectively. The starters and generator segment registered growth of ~44% yoy during 2QCY2011. Exports growth also remained robust, registering an increase of ~26% yoy, primarily due to higher exports to European markets.
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EBITDA margin at 18.4%: For 2QCY2011, Bosch reported a marginal 40bp yoy (down 50bp qoq) contraction in EBITDA margin to 18.4% due to increases in commodity costs, especially steel, aluminium and copper. The companys raw-material cost increased by 316bp yoy resulting in a raw-material cost/net sales ratio at 56.6% vs. 53.5% in 2QCY2011. However, a 311bp and 41bp yoy decrease in other expenditure and employee cost arrested further margin contraction. Thus, operating profit grew by 18.5% yoy (down 3.9% qoq) to `379cr.
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August 5, 2011
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Net profit growth boosted by higher other income: Net profit grew strongly by 32.9% yoy (1.6% qoq) to `279cr, aided by strong operating performance. Further, a sharp increase in other income and interest income on account of sale of marketable securities and higher treasury yields, respectively, benefitted the companys net profit performance. Tax rate during the quarter was slightly lower than expected, as sale of securities was exempted from tax.
August 5, 2011
Investment arguments
Technology-intensive industry supplemented by high bargaining power: We estimate Bosch to post a ~17% CAGR in its top line and a ~16% CAGR in its net profit over CY201012E. Further, the company enjoys high margins in the auto component segment due to high entry barriers and its dominant position in the market. Moreover, better utilisation of new capacities and gradual localisation of component supplies would help the company to sustain its margin at 18% going ahead. Dependent on favourable CV cycle for growth: Bosch's prospects are largely derived from demand arising in the CV and tractor segments, which are estimated to post CAGRs of 1012% each over the next couple of years. Further, greater visibility on newer growth opportunities is emerging for the company, following its investments in new and innovative technologies such as CRS and gasoline systems. We believe the company will continue to enjoy premium valuations, owing to strong parental focus and increasing long-term growth opportunities in the Indian market, facilitated by changes in emission norms. Moreover, Bosch has been a consistent performer with strong cash flows in the Indian auto component industry.
August 5, 2011
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P/E (x) FY12E 11.6 11.6 14.9 21.2 18.8 12.4 21.3 6.8
^
EV/EBITDA (x) FY12E 6.6 6.5 7.9 12.6 11.5 6.9 9.3 4.2 FY13E 5.6 5.4 6.3 10.8 9.6 6.1 7.4 3.8 10.2 9.8 11.9 19.0 16.4 11.3 15.9 6.4
RoE (%) FY12E 23.3 26.2 20.4 20.0 23.0 25.0 27.3 12.2 FY13E 21.5 25.0 21.3 18.6 22.4 22.1 30.9 11.8
FY11-13E EPS CAGR (%) 17.3 24.1 35.3 15.6 12.0 21.0 17.3 5.1
FY13E
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August 5, 2011
Balance Sheet
Y/E Dec. (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital Reserves& Surplus Shareholders Funds Total Loans Deferred Tax Liability Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Goodwill Investments Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Other Current liabilities Net Current Assets Mis. Exp. not written off Total Assets
CY07 32 2,531 2,563 252 (141) 2,674 2,339 1,859 481 158 6 1,064 2,063 686 306 1,071 1,098 965 2,674
CY08 32 3,063 3,095 264 (170) 3,190 2,722 2,120 602 167 6 867 2,741 1,071 422 1,248 1,193 1,548 3,190
CY09 31 3,354 3,385 284 (201) 3,468 2,865 2,358 507 100 6 1,418 2,758 1,068 556 1,135 1,320 1,438 3,468
CY10 31 4,067 4,098 276 (218) 4,156 3,017 2,588 430 224 6 1,607 3,752 1,326 896 1,530 1,863 1,889 4,156
CY11E 31 5,118 5,149 287 (218) 5,218 3,732 2,868 864 112 6 1,826 4,145 1,460 1,071 1,614 1,736 2,409 5,218
CY12E 31 6,126 6,157 287 (218) 6,226 4,179 3,190 988 84 6 2,179 4,932 1,842 1,232 1,858 1,963 2,969 6,226
August 5, 2011
Key Ratios
Y/E Dec. Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest) (0.6) (1.6) 178.2 (0.5) (2.0) (0.7) (2.7) (0.6) (2.1) 254.3 (0.6) (2.0) 763.7 (0.6) (2.2) 743.7 2.0 42 47 64 19 1.9 41 51 59 29 1.8 42 49 61 31 2.3 37 36 60 25 2.4 38 35 63 34 2.4 39 35 65 40 28.0 26.2 22.0 18.9 19.4 17.9 15.7 14.0 15.9 26.2 28.2 20.9 25.9 26.4 20.0 23.7 25.4 18.6 15.4 0.7 2.6 27.8 1.1 27.8 12.0 0.7 2.3 19.8 2.4 19.8 10.8 0.7 2.2 17.5 0.3 17.5 15.0 0.7 2.6 28.1 1.0 28.1 15.3 0.7 2.5 26.9 0.4 26.9 14.9 0.7 2.3 24.3 0.5 24.3 175.8 172.7 171.8 175.8 172.7 171.8 255.0 267.1 268.5 25.0 800 25.0 30.0 967 1,078 273.4 273.4 354.3 40.0 1,305 327.2 327.2 416.4 40.0 1,640 365.2 365.2 467.8 40.0 1,961 39.5 27.2 8.7 0.4 4.2 26.2 7.6 40.2 26.0 7.2 0.4 4.0 28.2 6.3 40.4 25.9 6.4 0.4 3.9 30.6 5.7 25.4 19.6 5.3 0.6 2.7 18.2 4.6 21.2 16.7 4.2 0.6 2.2 12.6 3.6 19.0 14.8 3.5 0.6 1.9 10.8 2.9 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11E CY12E
63.5 439.2
August 5, 2011
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Bosch No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) :
August 5, 2011
10