Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 41

IndependentStatistics&Analysis

U.S. Energy Information


Administration

August2011

ShortTermEnergyOutlook
August9,2011Release

Highlights

EIAexpectstheU.S.averagerefineracquisitioncostofcrudeoilwillrisefrom
$100perbarrelin2011to$107perbarrelin2012asglobalspareproduction
capacityandinventoriescontinuetodecline.ThisforecastassumesthatU.S.
realgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)growsby2.4percentthisyearand2.6
percentnextyear,whileworldoilconsumptionweightedrealGDPgrowsby
3.4and4.1percentin2011and2012,respectively.Theseassumptionsdonot
fullyreflectrecenteconomicandfinancialdevelopmentsthatpointtowardsa
weakereconomicoutlookandalsocontributedtoasharpdropinworldcrude
oilpricesduringthefirstweekofAugust.Thereisasignificantdownsiderisk
foroilpricesifeconomicandfinancialmarketconcernsbecomemore
widespreadortakehold.

Theregulargradegasolinemonthlyaverageretailpricefellfrom$3.91per
galloninMayto$3.65pergalloninJuly,reflectingthedeclineincrudeoil
pricesfromtheirAprilpeakandarecoveryfromunexpectedrefineryoutages.
Projectedregulargradegasolinepricesaverage$3.58pergallonand$3.44per
galloninthethirdandfourthquartersof2011,respectively,about6centsper
gallonbelowlastmonthsOutlook.

ExtremelyhotweathersettledonmuchoftheNationlastmonth,withU.S.
populationweightedcoolingdegreedays27percenthigherthanthe30year
normaland8percenthigherthanlastyear,whichcontributedtoanincreasein
naturalgasconsumptionforelectricitygenerationcomparedwithJuly2010.
Nevertheless,theestimated246billioncubicfeet(Bcf)increaseinnaturalgas
workinginventoriesduringJuly2011was21Bcfhigherthanduringthesame
monthlastyear.NaturalgasworkinginventoriesendedJuly2011at2.8trillion
cubicfeet(Tcf),about7percent,or194Bcf,belowthe2010endofJulylevel.
EIAexpectsthatworkingnaturalgasinventorieswillbuildstrongly,
approachinglastyearshighlevelsbytheendofthisyearsinventorybuild
season.TheprojectedHenryHubnaturalgasspotpriceaverages$4.24per
millionBritishthermalunits(MMBtu)in2011,$0.15perMMBtulowerthanthe
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2011
1

2010average.EIAexpectsthenaturalgasmarkettobegintighteningin2012,
withtheHenryHubspotpriceincreasingtoanaverageof$4.41perMMBtu.

GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuels
CrudeOilandLiquidFuelsOverview.Globaloildemandgrowth,ledbyChina,is
expectedtooutpacethegrowthinsuppliesfromcountriesoutsideoftheOrganization
ofthePetroleumExportingCountries(OPEC),leadingmarketstorelyonbotha
drawdownofinventoriesandproductionincreasesinOPECcountriestoclosethe
gap.However,OPECcountriesarenotexpectedtomarkedlyincreaseproduction
overthenextfewmonths.
Amongthemajorupsiderisksinthecrudeoilpriceoutlookareadditionalsupply
disruptionsinproducingregionsandhigherthanexpecteddemandgrowth,
particularlyinthecountriesthatarenotmembersoftheOrganizationforEconomic
Cooperationanddevelopment(OECD).Downsiderisksforoilpricesincludethe
rateofglobaleconomicrecoveryandfiscalissuesfacingnationalandsubnational
governments.
GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuelsConsumption.Worldcrudeoilandliquidfuels
consumptiongrewtoarecordhigh86.8millionbarrelsperday(bbl/d)in2010.
Despitecontinuedconcernsoverthepaceoftheglobaleconomicrecovery,
particularlyinOECDcountries,EIAexpectsthatworldconsumptiontogrowby1.4
millionbbl/din2011andby1.6millionbbl/din2012,outpacingaverageglobal
demandgrowthof1.3millionbbl/dfrom19982007,priortotheonsetoftheglobal
economicdownturn(WorldLiquidFuelsConsumptionChart).Countriesoutsidethe
OECDmakeupalmostalloftheprojectedgrowthinconsumptionoverthenexttwo
years,withChinaaccountingforalmosthalfofthisgrowth.Chineseoildemand
continuestoshowstronggrowthdespiteChinesemeasurestocoolitseconomydown,
andEIAsprojectionsforChineseoildemandgrowthhaveagainbeenrevised
upwards.
NonOPECSupply.EIAprojectsthatnonOPECcrudeoilandliquidfuelsproduction
willincreasebyanaverage650thousandbbl/din2011and2012(NonOPECCrude
OilandLiquidFuelsProductionGrowthChart).ThegreatestincreasesinnonOPEC
oilproductionduring2011and2012occurinBrazil,Canada,China,Columbia,
Kazakhstan,andtheUnitedStates,withannualaveragegrowthineachcountryof
over100thousandbbl/d.Atthesametime,EIAexpectsproductiondeclinesthisyear
intheNorthSearegionof140thousandbbl/d,particularlyintheUnitedKingdom,as
wellasdeclinesinYemenof140thousandbbl/dstemmingfromongoingstrife.

U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2011


2

OPECSupply.ForecastOPECcrudeoilproductionisunchangedfromlastmonths
Outlook.EIAexpectsOPECcrudeoilproductionwilldeclinebyabout250thousand
bbl/din2011,inlargepartduetothesupplydisruptioninLibya.EIAassumesthat
aboutonehalfofLibyaspredisruptionproductionwillresumebytheendof2012,
contributingtoanoverallincreaseinOPECproductionof500thousandbbl/din2012.
EIAprojectsthatOPECsurpluscrudeoilproductioncapacitywillfallfrom4.0
millionbbl/dattheendof2010to3.5millionbbl/dattheendof2011,followedbya
furtherdeclineto3.3millionbbl/dbytheendof2012(OPECSurplusCrudeOil
ProductionCapacityChart).ForecastOPECnoncrudeliquidsproduction,whichis
notsubjecttoproductiontargets,isexpectedtoincreaseby520thousandbbl/din2011
andby410thousandbbl/din2012.
OECDPetroleumInventories.EIAexpectsthatOECDcommercialinventorieswill
declineinboth2011and2012.Daysofsupply(totalinventoriesdividedbyaverage
dailyconsumption)dropfromarelativelyhigh58daysduringthefourthquarterof
2010to56daysand55daysinthefourthquartersof2011and2012,respectively(Days
ofSupplyofOECDCommercialStocksChart).
CrudeOilPrices.WestTexasIntermediate(WTI)crudeoilspotpricesfellfroman
averageof$110perbarrelinAprilto$97perbarrelinJuly.Duringthefirstweekof
August,worldcrudeoilpricesfellbyabout$10perbarrelreflectingmarketconcerns
aboutworldeconomicandoildemandgrowth.However,EIAstillexpectsoil
marketstotightenasgrowingliquidfuelsdemandinemergingeconomiescontinues
tooutpacesupplygrowthwithcontinuingupwardpressureonoilprices.EIA
expectsthatWTIspotprices,whichaveraged$79perbarrelin2010,willaverage$96
perbarrelin2011and$101perbarrelin2012,whiletheU.S.refineraveragecrudeoil
acquisitioncostisprojectedtoaverage$100and$107perbarrelin2011and2012,
respectively(WestTexasIntermediateCrudeOilPriceChart).

Energypriceforecastsarehighlyuncertain(MarketPricesandUncertaintyReport).
WTIfuturesforOctober2011deliveryoverthe5dayperiodendingAugust4
averaged$93perbarrelandimpliedvolatilityaveraged33percent,establishingthe
lowerandupperlimitsofa95percentconfidenceintervalforthemarkets
expectationsofmonthlyaverageWTIpricesinOctoberof$75perbarreland$116per
barrel,respectively.Lastyearatthistime,WTIforOctober2010deliveryaveraged
$82perbarrelandimpliedvolatilityaveraged30percent.Thecorrespondinglower
andupperlimitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$67perbarreland$100
perbarrel.

U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2011


3

U.S.CrudeOilandLiquidFuels
U.S.LiquidFuelsConsumption.Totalconsumptionofliquidfuelsin2010grewby
410thousandbbl/d,or2.2percent,thehighestrateofgrowthsince2004(U.S.Liquid
FuelsConsumptionGrowthChart).Incontrast,projectedtotalU.S.liquidfuels
consumptionin2011fallsby150thousandbbl/d(0.8percent),areversalofthesmall
30thousandbbl/dincreaseprojectedinlastmonthsOutlook.Motorgasolineand
distillatefueleachaccountforaboutonefourthofthechange.
EIAexpectstotalliquidfuelsconsumptiontoincreaseby170thousandbbl/d(0.9
percent)to19.2millionbbl/din2012,withmotorgasolineconsumptionrisingby50
thousandbbl/d(0.6percent)anddistillatefuelconsumptionincreasingby70
thousandbbl/d(1.8percent)aseconomicgrowthimprovesandretailliquidfuels
pricesshowonlysmallincreasesfromthisyear.
U.S.LiquidFuelsSupplyandImports.Domesticcrudeoilproduction,which
increased110thousandbbl/din2010to5.5millionbbl/d,increasesbyafurther100
thousandbbl/din2011and80thousandbbl/din2012(U.S.CrudeOilProduction
Chart),drivenbyproductionresultingfromincreasedoildirecteddrillingactivityin
unconventionalshaleformations.
Liquidfuelnetimports(includingbothcrudeoilandrefinedproducts)fellfrom57
percentoftotalU.S.consumptionin2008to49percentin2010becauseofrising
domesticproductionandthedeclineinconsumptionduringtheeconomicdownturn.
EIAforecaststhatliquidfuelnetimportsshareoftotalconsumptionwilldecline
furtherto47percentin2011beforerisingslightlyto48percentin2012.
U.S.PetroleumProductPrices.EIAforecaststhattheannualaverageregulargrade
gasolineretailpricewillincreasefrom$2.78pergallonin2010to$3.53pergallonin
2011andto$3.64pergallonin2012duetoincreasesinoilprices.Theincreasein
retailpricesreflectsnotonlythehighercostofcrudeoilbutalsochangesinaverage
U.S.refinerygasolinemargin(thedifferencebetweenrefinerywholesalegasoline
pricesandtheaveragecostofcrudeoil)from$0.34pergallonin2010to$0.48per
gallonin2011and$0.43pergallonin2012.
EIAexpectsthatonhighwaydieselfuelretailprices,whichaveraged$2.99pergallon
in2010,willaverage$3.83pergallonin2011and$3.96pergallonin2012.Projected
U.S.refinerydieselfuelmarginsincreasefromanaverageof$0.38pergallonin2010
to$0.62pergallonin2011,thenfalltoanaverageof$0.55pergallonin2012.
U.S.Inventories.CommercialcrudeoilinventorylevelsendedJulyatanestimated
354millionbarrels,down3millionbarrelsfromlastyearbutstill21millionbarrels
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2011
4

higherthanthepreviousfiveyearaverageforthatmonth.Followingthereleaseof
about31millionbarrelsofcrudeoilfromtheU.S.StrategicPetroleumReserve(SPR),
commercialcrudeoilstocksareexpectedtorisetoabout369millionbarrelsbythe
endofSeptember2011,about40millionbarrelshigherthanthepreviousfiveyear
average.Crudeoilstocksaregraduallydrawndowntoneartheirfiveyearaverages
bytheendof2012.
Incontrast,refinedproductinventorieshavemovedclosertotheirfiveyearaverages
sincethebeginningofthisyearandareexpectedtoremainsothroughnextyear.
TotalmotorgasolinestocksattheendofJuly2011wereanestimated215million
barrels,down5millionbarrelsfromlastyearbut4millionbarrelsabovetheprevious
fiveyearaverageforthatmonth.DistillatefueloilstocksendedJulyat153million
barrels,down14millionbarrelsfromlastyearbut7millionbarrelsabovethe
previousfiveyearaverage.Projectedtotalmotorgasolineanddistillateinventoriesin
2012averageabout4millionbarrelsand7millionbarrelshigherthantheprevious
fiveyearaverage,respectively,ashigherthannormalstocklevelsaremaintainedto
supportcontinuingstrongexportmarkets.
NaturalGas

U.S.NaturalGasConsumption.EIAexpectsthattotalnaturalgasconsumptionwill
growby1.8percentto67.4billioncubicfeetperday(Bcf/d)in2011(U.S.Total
NaturalGasConsumptionChart).Forecastindustrialandelectricpower
consumptiongrowthmakeupmostoftheincrease,withexpectedincreasesin2011to
18.4Bcf/d(1.7percent)and21.0Bcf/d(3.7percent),respectively.

ExtremelyhotweatherseeninJulythroughoutmostofthecountrycontributedtoan
increaseinconsumptionofnaturalgasforelectricpowergenerationtomeetincreased
coolingdemand.ThismonthsOutlookraisestheforecastofconsumptionofnatural
gasforpowergenerationforthethirdquarterof2011to28.3Bcf/d(a4.2percent
increasefromthepreviousmonthsforecastof27.2Bcf/d)correspondingtoan11
percentincreaseinprojectedthirdquartercoolingdegreedaysfromlastmonths
forecast.

Projectedtotalconsumptionincreasesslightlyin2012to67.8Bcf/d.Expectedgrowth
intheindustrialandelectricpowersectorsoffsetsprojecteddeclinesinresidentialand
commercialconsumptionduetoanticipatedwarmerwinterweather.

U.S.NaturalGasProductionandImports.Marketednaturalgasproductionis
expectedtoaverage65.5Bcf/din2011,a3.7Bcf/d(5.9percent)increaseover2010.
ThisgrowthiscenteredintheonshoreproductionintheLower48States,whichmore
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2011
5

thanoffsetsprojecteddeclinesintheFederalGulfofMexico.EIAexpectsproduction
willcontinuetogrowin2012,butataslowerpace,increasing0.6Bcf/d(0.9percent)to
anaverageof66.1Bcf/d.

Growingdomesticnaturalgasproductionhasreducedrelianceonnaturalgasimports
andcontributedtoincreasedexports.EIAexpectsthatpipelinegrossimportsof
naturalgaswillfallby4.3percentto8.7Bcf/dduring2011andbyanother3.7percent
to8.4Bcf/din2012.PipelinegrossexportstoMexicoandCanadaareexpectedto
average4.3Bcf/dinboth2011and2012,comparedwithjust3.1Bcfin2010.

ProjectedU.S.importsofliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)fallfrom1.2Bcf/din2010to1.0
Bcf/dinboth2011and2012.BecauseoftheearthquakeinJapanandsubsequent
nucleargenerationoutages,JapansdemandforLNGasareplacementfuelforelectric
powergenerationisexpectedtoincrease,contributingtohigherglobalLNGprices.

U.S.NaturalGasInventories.OnJuly29,2011,workingnaturalgasinstoragestood
at2,758Bcf,186BcfbelowlastyearslevelinlateJuly(U.S.WorkingNaturalGasin
StorageChart).EIAexpectsthatinventories,thoughcurrentlylowerthanlastyear,
willcomeclosetolastyearslevelstowardstheendofthe2011injectionseason
despitethehotweather.Projectedinventoriessurpass3.77TcfattheendofOctober
2011becauseofcurrenthighproductionrates.

U.S.NaturalGasPrices.TheHenryHubspotpriceaveraged$4.42perMMBtuin
July2011,13centslowerthantheJune2011average(HenryHubNaturalGasPrice
Chart).EIAexpectsthattheHenryHubpricewillaverage$4.24perMMBtuin2011
and$4.41perMMBtuin2012.Thoughthe2012averagereflectssometighteningin
supplyasdomesticproductiongrowthslows,priceshaveremainedrelativelylow
overthepastfewyearsasaresultofabundantproduction.

Uncertaintyaboutnaturalgaspricesislowerthisyearcomparedwithlastyearatthis
time(MarketPricesandUncertaintyReport).NaturalgasfuturesforOctober2011
delivery(forthe5dayperiodendingAugust4)averaged$4.11perMMBtu,andthe
averageimpliedvolatilitywas33percent.Thelowerandupperboundsforthe95
percentconfidenceintervalforOctober2011contractsare$3.20perMMBtuand$5.28
perMMBtu.Atthistimelastyear,theOctober2010naturalgasfuturescontract
averaged$4.74perMMBtuandimpliedvolatilityaveraged51percent.The
correspondinglowerandupperlimitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$3.26
perMMBtuand$6.89perMMBtu.

U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2011


6

Electricity

U.S.ElectricityConsumption.AccordingtotheNationalOceanicandAtmospheric
Administration,U.S.populationweightedcoolingdegreedaysduringJulywasthe
highestrecordedmonthlyvaluesinceatleastthe1930s.ThisOutlookestimatesthat
retailsalesofelectricitytotheresidentialsectorduringJulywereslightlyhigherthan
therecordsetting5.02billionkilowatthoursperday(kwh/d)consumedduringJulyof
2010.EIAexpectstotalconsumptionofelectricityduring2011togrowby0.5percent
fromlastyearslevelandby1.1percentin2012(U.S.TotalElectricityConsumption
Chart).

U.S.ElectricityGeneration.Hydroelectricgenerationbytheelectricpowersector
averaged946millionkwh/dduringthemonthsofJanuarytoMay2011,whichis252
millionkwh/d(36percent)higherthanthesameperiodlastyear.Mostofthis
increaseinhydropoweroccurredintheWestCensusregion,wherenaturalgaswas
displacedasageneratingfuel,fallingby159millionkwh/dyearoveryear.In
contrast,thelowcostofnaturalgasrelativetoAppalachiancoaldroveuptheuseof
naturalgasasagenerationfuelintheeasternregionsoftheU.S.,increasingby244
millionkwh/dduringthefirstfivemonthsofthisyearcomparedtothesameperiod
in2010.EIAexpectsa3.5percentincreaseinU.S.naturalgasgenerationduring2011
andanincreaseof3.3percentnextyear(U.S.TotalElectricityGenerationbyFuels,all
SectorsChart).

U.S.ElectricityRetailPrices.Theregulatorylaginpassingthroughchangesin
generationcostsshouldleadtoa2.3percentincreaseintheaverageU.S.residential
retailelectricitypriceduring2011,inresponsetotheincreaseinnaturalgasfuelcosts
lastyear.Relativelystablefuelcoststhisyeartranslateintolittlegrowthinretailrates
during2012(U.S.ResidentialElectricityPricesChart).

Coal

U.S.CoalConsumption.EIAexpectsthatcoalconsumptionintheelectricpower
sectorwilldeclinebynearly3percentin2011,astotalelectricitygenerationrisesby
lessthan1percentandgenerationfromnaturalgasincreasesby3.5percent.Forecast
coalconsumptionintheelectricpowersectorremainsrelativelyunchangedin2012.

Recentlyreleaseddataforthefirstquarterof2011showedthatcoalconsumptionat
cokeplantsrosebymorethan20percent.EIAexpectsthatcoalconsumptionatcoke
plantswillincreaseto25millionshorttons(mmst)(17percent)in2011,andstayclose
tothatlevelin2012.EIAforecaststhatcoalconsumedintheothersectors(excluding
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2011
7

electricpowerandcokeplants)willremainatapproximately52mmstin2011and
2012(U.S.CoalConsumptionGrowthChart).

U.S.CoalSupply.EIAforecaststhatcoalproductionwillfallby1.7percentin2011
despiteasignificantincreaseincoalexports.CoalproductionfromtheWestern
regiondeclinedinthefirstsixmonthsof2011by2percentfromthesameperiodthe
yearbefore,whileproductionintheAppalachianandInteriorregionsincreased.EIA
projectsonlya0.3percentincreaseincoalproductionfor2012(U.S.AnnualCoal
ProductionChart).

EIAexpectsthattotalcoalinventoriesfallbyover17mmstin2011,withsecondary
inventoriesdeclininganadditional4.7mmstin2012.Primaryinventoriesareforecast
toincreaseslightly(0.5mmst)in2012(U.S.ElectricPowerSectorCoalStocksChart).

U.S.CoalTrade.U.S.coalexportsrosebyabout50percentduringthefirstquarterof
2011comparedwith2010.Thefirstquarterexportlevelof26.6mmstwasthehighest
quarterlylevelsince1992.Despiteaslowergrowthrate,EIAexpectsU.S.coalexports
toremainelevatedin2011,reachinganannuallevelof98mmst.ForecastU.S.coal
exportsfallbacktoabout83mmstin2012assupplyfromothermajorcoalexporting
countriesrecoversfromdisruptions.EIAalsoexpectsthestrongglobaldemandfor
coaltocontinuetosuppresscoalimports,withimportsprojectedbelow19mmstin
both2011and2012.U.S.coalimportsaveragedabout31mmstannuallyfrom2004
through2009.

U.S.CoalPrices.Averagedeliveredcoalpricestotheelectricpowersectorhaverisen
steadilyoverthelast10years,withanaverageannualincreaseof6.7percent.EIA
expectsthatthistrendwillcontinuein2011,withasignificantportionoftheincrease
attributedtoasharpriseintransportationcosts.Nearlyallcoaltransportationis
poweredbydieselfuel(rail,bargeortruck),andwholesaledieselpricesareforecast
torisebyabout36percentin2011.Thetrendshiftsin2012,withthepowersectorcoal
priceremainingrelativelystable.Theprojectedpowersectordeliveredcoalprice,
whichaveraged$2.26perMMBtuin2010,averagesabout$2.38perMMBtufor2011
and2012.

U.S.CarbonDioxideEmissions

EIAestimatesthatCO2emissionsfromcombustingfossilfuelsincreasedby3.9
percentin2010(U.S.CarbonDioxideEmissionsGrowthChart).Forecastfossilfuel
CO2emissionsfallby0.5percentin2011,asemissionincreasesfromhighernatural
gasconsumptionareoffsetbydeclinesincoalandpetroleumconsumption.Increases
inhydroelectricgenerationandotherrenewableenergysourcesin2011alsohelpto
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2011
8

mitigateemissionsgrowth.Expectedincreasesintotalenergyconsumptionnextyear
coupledwitha0.5percentdeclineinrenewableenergyconsumptioncontributetoa
0.4percentincreaseinfossilfuelCO2emissionsin2012.

U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2011


9

U.S. Energy Information Administration


Independent Statistics & Analysis

Short--Term Energy Outlook


Short

Chart Gallery for August 2011

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price


dollars per barrel
200
Historical spot price
STEO price forecast
NYMEX futures price
95% NYMEX futures price confidence interval

180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan 2010

Jul 2010

Jan 2011

Jul 2011

Jan 2012

Jul 2012

Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending August 4, 2011
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices


dollars per gallon

dollars per gallon

4.50

3.50
Forecast

4.00

3.00
Retail Regular Gasoline

3.50

2.50
Crude Oil

3.00

2.00

2.50

1.50

2.00

1.00

1.50

0.50

1.00
Jan 2007

0.00
Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Crude oil price is refiner average acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

Jan 2012

U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Prices


dollars per gallon

dollars per gallon

4.80

3.50
Forecast

Retail Diesel Fuel


4.30

3.00

3.80

2.50
Crude Oil

3.30

2.00

2.80

1.50

2.30

1.00

1.80

0.50

1.30
Jan 2007

0.00
Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Crude oil price is refiner average acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

Henry Hub Natural Gas Price


dollars per million Btu
10
Historical spot price
STEO price forecast
NYMEX futures price
95% NYMEX futures price confidence interval

0
Jan 2010

Jul 2010

Jan 2011

Jul 2011

Jan 2012

Jul 2012

Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for 5 trading days ending August 4, 2011
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

Natural Gas Prices


dollars per thousand cubic feet
25
Forecast
Residential price
Henry Hub spot price
Composite wellhead price

20

15

10

0
Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

World Liquid Fuels Consumption


million barrels per day
95

million barrels per day


9.0
Forecast
8.0

Total consumption

90

7.0
6.0

85

5.0

80

4.0

Annual growth
75

3.0
2.0

70

1.0

65

0.0
-1.0

60

-2.0
55

-3.0
2004

2005

2006
China

2007

2008

2009

United States

2010

2011

2012

Other Countries

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth


(change from previous year)
million barrels per day
1.5

Forecast

1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
2010
OECD*

2011
Non-OECD Asia

2012

Former Soviet Union

Other

* Countries belonging to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth


(change from previous year)
million barrels per day
2.0

Forecast

1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
2010

2011
OPEC countries
North America
North Sea

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

2012
Russia and Caspian Sea
Latin America
Other Non-OPEC

Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth


(change from previous year)
million barrels per day
1.0
2012
0.8

2011

0.6

2010

0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2

Norway

Mexico

United Kingdom

Malaysia

Australia

Other North Sea

Syria

Gabon

Egypt

Sudan

India

Oman

Azerbaijan

Russia

Vietnam

Kazakhstan

Brazil

Colombia

China

Canada

United States

-0.4

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production


(change from previous year)
millions of barrels per day
4

dollars per barrel


100

World oil consumption (left axis)


Non-OPEC production (left axis)
WTI crude oil price (right axis)

Forecast
80
60

2
40
1

20

0
-20

-1

-40
-2
-60
-3

-80

-4
2008-Q1

-100
2009-Q1

2010-Q1

2011-Q1

2012-Q1

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity


million barrels per day
7
Forecast
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Note: Shaded area represents 2000-2010 average (2.7 million barrels per day)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

2010

2012

OECD Commercial Oil Stocks


days of supply
70
Forecast
65
60
55
50
45
400
Jan 2006

Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Note: Colored band represents the range between the minimum and maximum observed inventories from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production


Change from prior year
(million barrels per day)

Total production
million barrels per day

Forecast

9.0
Total production

8.0

1.4
1.2

7.0

1.0

6.0

0.8

5.0

0.6
Annual change

4.0

0.4

3.0

0.2

2.0

0.0

1.0

-0.2

0.0

-0.4
2001

2002

2003

Fuel ethanol

2004

2005

Crude oil

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Liquified petroleum gas and pentanes plus

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

U.S. Crude Oil Stocks


million barrels
400
Forecast
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
2000
Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Note: Colored bands represent "normal" range published in EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Appendix A.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth


(change from previous year)
thousand barrels per day
Forecast

600
2.2%

-0.8%

2010

2011

0.9%

400
200
0
-200
-400
-600

Total

Motor gasoline

2012

Jet fuel

Distillate fuel

Other

Note: Percent change labels refer to total petroleum products growth

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

U.S. Gasoline and Distillate Inventories


million barrels
260
Total motor gasoline inventory

Forecast

240
220
200
180

Total distillate fuel inventory

160
140
120
100
80
600
Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Note: Colored bands represent "normal" range published in EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Appendix A.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

U.S. Total Natural Gas Consumption


billion cubic feet per day
70

change from prior year


20%
Forecast
18%

68
66

16%
Consumption

64

14%

62

12%

60

10%

58
54

3.9%

8%

6.5%

Annual growth

56

5.7%

6%

3.5%

4%

52

1.8%

50

0.7%

0.5%

0.2%

2%
0%

48
46

-2%

-1.6%

-1.4% -1.5%
-3.2%

44

-4%

-4.4%

42
2000

2001

-6%
2002

2003

2004

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage


billion cubic feet
Forecast

Storage level

4,000

120%

3,000

100%

2,000

80%

1,000

60%
40%

0
Deviation from 2006 - 2010 average
-1,000

20%

-2,000

0%

-3,000
Jan 2007

-20%
Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

U.S. Coal Consumption Growth


(change from previous year)
50%
Forecast
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
2010
Total consumption

2011
Electric power sector

2012

Retail and general industry

Coke plants

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

U.S. Annual Coal Production


million short tons
1,400
Forecast
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Total U.S.

Western region

Appalachian region

Interior region

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

2010

2011

2012

U.S. Electric Power Coal Stocks


million short tons
220
Forecast
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
600
Jan
2003

Jan
2004

Jan
2005

Jan
2006

Jan
2007

Jan
2008

Jan
2009

Jan
2010

Jan
2011

Jan
2012

Note: Colored bands represent "normal" range published in EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Appendix A.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

U.S. Total Electricity Consumption


billion kilowatthours per day

change from prior year


24%
Forecast
22%

12

20%

Consumption

11

18%
16%

10

14%
12%

10%
Annual growth

8%

6%

4.3%
2.8%

2.8%

2.1%

1.2%

0.8%

4%

1.9%
0.5%

0.2%

1.1%

2%
0%

-0.7%

-2%

-0.9%

-4%

-3.4%
5

-6%
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

U.S. Residential Electricity Price


cents per kilowatthour

change from prior year

14
13

Forecast

Monthly average electricity price

36%

12
11

30%

10
9

24%

8
7

18%

6
10.3%

Annual growth

4
4.2%

3
2

3.2%

12%

5.7%

5.4%
2.6%

2.4%

0.9%

6%
2.2%

2.3%
0.6%

1.1%
0%

1
0

-1.6%
-6%

-1
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, All Sectors


thousand megawatthours per day
Forecast

12,000
10,000

Petroleum
Renewables

8,000

Hydropower

6,000

16.7%

17.9%

18.8%

20.1%

21.6%

21.4%
23.3%

23.8%

24.5%

25.0%

Nuclear
Natural Gas
Coal

4,000

Other Gases

50.8%

49.8%

49.6%

49.0%

48.5%

48.2%

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2,000

Other Sources

44.4%

44.9%

43.3%

43.0%

2009

2010

2011

2012

Note: Labels show percentage share of total generation provided by natural gas and coal.
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures Share


of Gross Domestic Product
Forecast

14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth


(change from previous year)
9%
Forecast
6%
3%
0%
-3%
-6%
-9%
2010
All Fossil Fuels
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

2011
Coal

Petroleum

2012
Natural Gas

2012

U.S. Summer Cooling Degree-Days


(population-weighted)
450
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Normal

400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

U.S. Winter Heating Degree-Days


(population-weighted)
1200

2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
Normal

1000

800

600

400

200

0
OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

U.S. Census Regions and Census Divisions


AK

Pacific

WEST

MIDWEST

NORTHEAST

WA
ND

MT

MN

OR
W

ID
NV

Mountain
CO

CA

West
North
Central

SD

Pacific

NE

VT
W

IA

MO

KS

Middle
Atlantic
PA

IN

IL

UT
WV
NM

Pacific
HI

VA

KY
OK

AZ
TX

EastTN

AR
South
West
Central
South
AL
LA MS
Central

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011

NH

MA
RI
CT
NJ

DE
MD

NC

South
Atlantic
SC
GA

LEGEND
REGION
Division
State

FL

SOUTH

ME

New

NY England

East
MI
North
Central OH

Table SF01. U.S. Motor Gasoline Summer Outlook


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook -- August 2011
2010

2011

Year-over-year Change
(percent)
Q2
Q3
Season

Q2

Q3

Season

Q2

Q3

Season

WTI Crude Oil (Spot) a

1.85

1.81

1.83

2.43

2.19

2.31

31.4

21.1

26.3

Imported Crude Oil Priceb

1.77

1.75

1.76

2.58

2.34

2.46

45.7

34.1

39.7

Nominal Prices (dollars per gallon)

U.S. Refiner Average Crude Oil Cost

1.79

1.76

1.78

2.57

2.34

2.46

43.5

32.8

38.1

Wholesale Gasoline Pricec

2.18

2.10

2.14

3.11

2.91

3.01

42.7

38.9

40.8

Wholesale Diesel Fuel Pricec

2.20

2.15

2.17

3.17

3.00

3.08

44.0

39.5

41.8

Regular Gasoline Retail Priced

2.81

2.72

2.76

3.79

3.58

3.68

35.3

31.4

33.3

3.03

2.94

2.98

4.02

3.85

3.93

32.7

31.0

31.9

Diesel Fuel Retail Price

Gasoline Consumption/Supply (million barrels per day)


Total Consumption

9.193

9.224

9.209

8.916

9.121

9.019

-3.0

-1.1

-2.1

Total Refinery and Blender Outpute

7.607

7.692

7.650

7.516

7.730

7.624

-1.2

0.5

-0.3

-0.2

-2.2

-1.2

-17.0

-21.3

-19.3

Fuel Ethanol Blending

0.849

0.855

0.852

0.848

0.837

0.842

Total Stock Withdrawal f

0.104

-0.040

0.032

0.026

-0.009

0.008

Net Imports f

0.633

0.716

0.675

0.526

0.564

0.545

Refinery Utilization (percent)

89.2

88.9

89.1

85.4

88.0

86.7

Gasoline Stocks, Including Blending Components (million barrels)


Beginning

225.0

215.6

225.0

214.9

212.5

214.9

Ending

215.6

219.3

219.3

212.5

213.4

213.4

Economic Indicators (annualized billion 2000 dollars)


Real GDP

13,195

13,279

13,237

13,508

13,618

13,563

2.4

2.6

2.5

Real Income

10,252

10,277

10,264

10,332

10,390

10,361

0.8

1.1

0.9

Spot Price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.


Cost of imported crude oil to U.S. refiners.
c
Price product sold by refiners to resellers.
d
Average pump price including taxes.
e
Refinery and blender net production plus finished motor gasoline adjustment.
f
Total stock withdrawal and net imports includes both finished gasoline and gasoline blend components.
GDP = gross domestic product.
b

Notes: Minor discrepancies with other Energy Information Administration (EIA) published historical data are due to rounding. Historical data
are printed in bold. Forecasts are in italic. The forecasts were generated by simulation of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Sources: Historical data: latest data available from: EIA,Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109; Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA0035; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP and income); Reuters News Service (WTI crude oil spotprice).
Macroeconomic projections are based on IHS Global Insight Macroeconomic Forecast Model.

Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
1st

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

Energy Supply
Crude Oil Production (a)
(million barrels per day) ..............................

5.49

5.40

5.46

5.54

5.57

5.60

5.46

5.64

5.69

5.67

5.62

5.64

5.47

5.57

5.65

Dry Natural Gas Production


(billion cubic feet per day) ...........................

57.93

58.56

59.28

60.66

61.05

63.01

63.06

63.13

63.15

62.96

62.96

63.41

59.12

62.57

63.12

Coal Production
(million short tons) .......................................

265

265

278

277

274

258

263

272

276

257

269

268

1,085

1,067

1,070

Liquid Fuels
(million barrels per day) ..............................

18.87

19.15

19.47

19.23

19.09

18.67

19.18

19.17

19.16

19.07

19.33

19.24

19.18

19.03

19.20

Natural Gas
(billion cubic feet per day) ...........................

83.41

54.42

57.93

68.99

83.87

56.07

58.58

71.10

83.85

56.03

59.53

71.96

66.13

67.35

67.83

Coal (b)
(million short tons) .......................................

265

247

286

250

254

239

276

255

267

232

272

250

1,048

1,025

1,022

Electricity
(billion kilowatt hours per day) ....................

10.61

10.02

12.01

9.92

10.60

10.13

11.98

10.06

10.78

10.23

12.01

10.23

10.64

10.70

10.82

Renewables (c)
(quadrillion Btu) ...........................................

1.77

1.95

1.80

1.84

2.04

2.30

2.05

1.91

2.05

2.20

2.00

2.02

7.36

8.30

8.26

Total Energy Consumption (d)


(quadrillion Btu) ...........................................

25.75

22.97

24.63

25.08

26.02

23.38

24.62

24.95

26.44

23.30

24.65

25.14

98.43

98.98

99.53

Crude Oil (e)


(dollars per barrel) .......................................

75.89

75.34

74.06

81.69

93.98

108.10

98.36

101.00

105.00

106.00

108.00

109.00

76.72

100.40

107.01

Natural Gas Wellhead


(dollars per thousand cubic feet) .................

4.79

4.07

4.11

3.67

4.06

4.10

4.04

3.91

4.01

3.87

4.03

4.46

4.15

4.03

4.09

Coal
(dollars per million Btu) ...............................

2.26

2.26

2.28

2.25

2.35

2.42

2.40

2.34

2.41

2.39

2.36

2.32

2.26

2.38

2.37

Real Gross Domestic Product


(billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) .........
Percent change from prior year ...................

13,139
2.4

13,195
3.0

13,279
3.2

13,381
2.8

13,444
2.3

13,508
2.4

13,618
2.6

13,713
2.5

13,793
2.6

13,865
2.6

13,952
2.4

14,059
2.5

13,248
2.9

13,571
2.4

13,917
2.6

GDP Implicit Price Deflator


(Index, 2005=100) ........................................
Percent change from prior year ...................

110.0
0.5

110.5
0.8

111.1
1.2

111.2
1.3

111.7
1.6

112.5
1.9

113.1
1.8

113.2
1.9

113.6
1.7

113.8
1.1

114.3
1.1

114.8
1.4

110.7
1.0

112.6
1.8

114.1
1.3

Real Disposable Personal Income


(billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) .........
Percent change from prior year ...................

10,113
0.7

10,252
0.6

10,277
2.0

10,305
2.2

10,328
2.1

10,332
0.8

10,390
1.1

10,450
1.4

10,410
0.8

10,478
1.4

10,506
1.1

10,542
0.9

10,237
1.4

10,375
1.4

10,484
1.0

85.0
2.2

86.9
7.5

88.1
7.2

89.0
6.6

90.5
6.4

90.8
4.5

92.5
4.9

93.6
5.2

94.7
4.6

95.3
4.9

96.3
4.2

97.1
3.8

87.3
5.8

91.8
5.3

95.9
4.4

2,311
12

422
445

62
930

1,665
68

2,285
33

517
432

92
864

1,626
77

2,247
36

539
345

99
777

1,614
82

4,460
1,455

4,520
1,406

4,499
1,240

Energy Consumption

Energy Prices

Macroeconomic

Manufacturing Production Index


(Index, 2007=100) ........................................
Percent change from prior year ...................
Weather
U.S. Heating Degree-Days ..........................
U.S. Cooling Degree-Days ..........................

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption.
(c) Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy.
EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.
(d) The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIAs Monthly Energy Review (MER).
Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER or the Annual Energy Review (AER).
(e) Refers to the refiner average acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report, DOE/EIA-0208; Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380; Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130;
Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226; Quarterly Coal Report, DOE/EIA-0121; and International Petroleum Monthly, DOE/EIA-0520.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model. Macroeconomic projections are based on Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.
Weather projections from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Table 2. U.S. Energy Prices


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
1st

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

Crude Oil (dollars per barrel)


West Texas Intermediate Spot Average ...........................
Imported Average .............................................................
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost ....................................
Liquid Fuels (cents per gallon)

78.64
75.28
75.89

77.79
74.32
75.34

76.05
73.32
74.06

85.10
81.03
81.69

93.50
94.23
93.98

102.22
108.30
108.10

92.10
98.30
98.36

95.00
100.95
101.00

99.00
105.00
105.00

100.00
106.00
106.00

102.00
108.00
108.00

103.00
109.00
109.00

79.40
75.87
76.72

95.71
100.46
100.40

101.00
107.00
107.01

211
209
205

218
220
212

210
215
204

227
240
234

267
286
275

311
317
309

291
300
293

279
300
299

289
303
303

302
307
304

303
313
308

294
315
314

217
221
215

287
301
291

297
310
307

210
172

219
170

214
166

238
182

287
218

321
244

299
231

300
234

305
239

305
240

311
244

315
250

220
172

302
231

309
243

271
277
285
292

281
286
303
292

272
277
294
282

288
294
315
310

329
335
363
359

379
385
402
393

358
363
385
381

344
350
384
390

354
360
391
402

369
374
395
401

371
377
397
401

360
366
401
411

278
283
299
297

353
358
383
374

364
369
396
405

Average Wellhead (dollars per thousand cubic feet) ......


Henry Hub Spot (dollars per thousand cubic feet) ..........
Henry Hub Spot (dollars per Million Btu) .........................
End-Use Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)

4.79
5.30
5.15

4.07
4.45
4.32

4.11
4.41
4.28

3.67
3.91
3.80

4.06
4.31
4.18

4.10
4.50
4.37

4.04
4.33
4.20

3.91
4.31
4.19

4.01
4.48
4.35

3.87
4.31
4.19

4.03
4.46
4.33

4.46
4.93
4.79

4.15
4.52
4.39

4.03
4.36
4.24

4.09
4.55
4.41

Industrial Sector ............................................................


Commercial Sector .......................................................
Residential Sector .........................................................
Electricity
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)

6.51
9.30
10.59

4.98
9.25
12.54

5.07
9.63
15.47

4.89
8.66
10.56

5.41
8.74
9.97

5.21
9.16
11.91

5.40
9.81
16.09

5.67
9.66
11.77

5.89
9.41
10.79

5.31
9.46
12.45

5.42
9.96
16.44

6.10
10.08
12.44

5.40
9.14
11.18

5.43
9.22
11.22

5.70
9.69
11.93

Coal ...............................................................................
Natural Gas ..................................................................
Residual Fuel Oil (c) ......................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil ...........................................................
End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)

2.26
6.06
12.10
15.84

2.26
4.89
12.36
16.48

2.28
4.88
12.36
16.18

2.25
4.69
14.19
17.94

2.35
5.05
15.88
20.99

2.42
4.92
18.42
23.64

2.40
4.98
18.06
22.95

2.34
4.97
17.79
22.93

2.41
5.17
18.37
23.26

2.39
4.93
18.73
23.31

2.36
5.04
18.91
23.74

2.32
5.52
19.08
24.12

2.26
5.08
12.63
16.60

2.38
4.98
17.70
22.60

2.37
5.15
18.78
23.63

Industrial Sector ............................................................


Commercial Sector .......................................................
Residential Sector .........................................................

6.53
9.87
10.88

6.75
10.30
11.90

7.17
10.71
12.02

6.67
10.06
11.50

6.68
10.01
11.24

6.85
10.40
12.03

7.41
10.88
12.34

6.84
10.31
11.71

6.70
10.20
11.26

6.87
10.58
12.21

7.33
11.09
12.51

6.85
10.41
11.89

6.79
10.26
11.58

6.95
10.42
11.85

6.94
10.59
11.97

Refiner Prices for Resale


Gasoline ........................................................................
Diesel Fuel ....................................................................
Heating Oil ....................................................................
Refiner Prices to End Users
Jet Fuel .........................................................................
No. 6 Residual Fuel Oil (a) ............................................
Retail Prices Including Taxes
Gasoline Regular Grade (b) ..........................................
Gasoline All Grades (b) .................................................
On-highway Diesel Fuel ................................................
Heating Oil ....................................................................
Natural Gas

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Average for all sulfur contents.
(b) Average self-service cash price.
(c) Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Prices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review , DOE/EIA-0035.
Natural gas Henry Hub and WTI crude oil spot prices from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3a. International Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010

2011

2012

Year
2011

2012

21.42
9.69
3.49
2.98
3.73
1.52
65.51
35.15
29.77
5.39
13.17
4.27
12.92
86.93

21.48
9.83
3.62
2.93
3.60
1.49
66.22
35.42
29.51
5.91
13.37
4.42
13.00
87.70

21.66
9.91
3.84
2.90
3.51
1.50
67.75
36.33
30.01
6.32
13.43
4.55
13.44
89.41

52.96

51.78

52.28

53.08

45.75
19.33
0.27
2.28
14.47
4.03
5.37
44.32
4.71
0.82
10.64
9.95
18.20
90.07

46.41
19.23
0.27
2.27
14.59
4.40
5.65
44.03
4.67
0.82
10.84
10.18
17.52
90.45

46.12
19.18
0.27
2.21
14.58
4.45
5.43
40.70
4.40
0.80
9.17
9.72
16.60
86.82

45.84
19.02
0.27
2.23
14.42
4.43
5.47
42.35
4.52
0.79
10.00
10.02
17.02
88.19

45.95
19.19
0.27
2.25
14.36
4.34
5.54
43.87
4.61
0.80
10.60
10.24
17.63
89.83

-0.39
0.01
0.01
-0.36

-0.07
0.31
0.51
0.74

0.56
0.07
0.12
0.76

-0.05
0.00
-0.06
-0.11

0.11
0.11
0.27
0.50

0.05
0.14
0.23
0.42

1,088
2,612

1,095
2,591

1,043
2,532

1,068
2,649

1,063
2,603

1,043
2,532

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Supply (million barrels per day) (a)


OECD ................................................
U.S. (50 States) .............................
Canada ..........................................
Mexico ............................................
North Sea (b) .................................
Other OECD ...................................
Non-OECD ........................................
OPEC .............................................
Crude Oil Portion ........................
Other Liquids ...............................
Former Soviet Union ......................
China ..............................................
Other Non-OECD ...........................
Total World Supply ............................

21.56
9.58
3.37
3.02
4.08
1.51
64.55
34.51
29.40
5.11
13.11
4.16
12.78
86.11

21.33
9.58
3.47
2.99
3.74
1.55
65.33
35.02
29.65
5.37
13.15
4.23
12.92
86.66

21.04
9.70
3.49
2.97
3.36
1.53
66.22
35.71
30.15
5.57
13.18
4.31
13.01
87.26

21.74
9.89
3.64
2.95
3.76
1.50
65.94
35.35
29.85
5.49
13.23
4.39
12.97
87.68

21.40
9.77
3.58
2.99
3.60
1.46
65.98
35.32
29.78
5.54
13.28
4.36
13.02
87.38

21.55
9.89
3.60
2.99
3.56
1.50
65.78
35.08
29.22
5.86
13.32
4.42
12.96
87.33

21.42
9.77
3.62
2.91
3.60
1.53
66.87
35.82
29.70
6.12
13.52
4.46
13.08
88.29

21.55
9.89
3.70
2.85
3.63
1.48
66.24
35.46
29.35
6.11
13.37
4.45
12.95
87.79

21.82
9.88
3.80
2.93
3.71
1.50
67.36
36.03
29.78
6.25
13.61
4.51
13.22
89.18

21.74
9.95
3.82
2.91
3.56
1.49
67.69
36.16
29.86
6.30
13.52
4.56
13.45
89.42

21.50
9.91
3.86
2.89
3.33
1.51
67.83
36.39
30.04
6.35
13.37
4.57
13.50
89.33

21.57
9.89
3.89
2.88
3.43
1.48
68.12
36.73
30.36
6.37
13.23
4.58
13.58
89.69

Non-OPEC Supply ............................

51.60

51.64

51.55

52.33

52.06

52.25

52.48

52.32

53.15

53.27

52.94

Consumption (million barrels per day) (c)


OECD ................................................
45.90
U.S. (50 States) .............................
18.87
U.S. Territories ...............................
0.27
Canada ..........................................
2.15
Europe ............................................ 14.31
Japan .............................................
4.82
Other OECD ...................................
5.48
Non-OECD ........................................
39.63
Former Soviet Union ......................
4.32
Europe ............................................
0.79
China ..............................................
8.88
Other Asia ......................................
9.81
Other Non-OECD ...........................
15.83
Total World Consumption .................
85.52

45.28
19.15
0.27
2.17
14.25
4.07
5.37
41.14
4.34
0.77
9.31
9.93
16.79
86.42

46.60
19.47
0.27
2.26
14.92
4.36
5.32
40.92
4.49
0.83
8.89
9.47
17.25
87.52

46.70
19.23
0.27
2.25
14.82
4.57
5.57
41.08
4.45
0.83
9.60
9.69
16.52
87.79

46.14
19.09
0.27
2.23
14.18
4.86
5.52
41.30
4.42
0.78
9.65
10.18
16.27
87.44

44.45
18.67
0.27
2.14
14.08
3.91
5.37
42.68
4.47
0.76
10.11
10.20
17.13
87.12

46.05
19.17
0.27
2.28
14.65
4.33
5.35
42.88
4.62
0.81
10.02
9.74
17.69
88.93

46.73
19.14
0.27
2.27
14.77
4.65
5.63
42.53
4.58
0.81
10.21
9.97
16.96
89.26

46.66
19.15
0.27
2.26
14.36
4.93
5.69
43.05
4.50
0.79
10.32
10.40
17.03
89.71

44.97
19.06
0.27
2.17
14.01
4.00
5.46
44.08
4.55
0.77
10.58
10.42
17.75
89.06

Inventory Net Withdrawals (million barrels per day)


U.S. (50 States) ................................
-0.12
-0.60
Other OECD ......................................
-0.16
-0.40
Other Stock Draws and Balance ......
-0.31
0.76
Total Stock Draw ............................
-0.58
-0.24

-0.21
0.27
0.21
0.26

0.73
0.29
-0.91
0.11

0.27
0.00
-0.22
0.06

-0.31
-0.19
0.29
-0.21

-0.16
0.31
0.49
0.64

0.65
0.33
0.50
1.47

0.11
0.17
0.26
0.53

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)


U.S. Commercial Inventory ..............
1,060
OECD Commercial Inventory ...........
2,656

1,135
2,743

1,068
2,649

1,043
2,624

1,071
2,670

1,122
2,693

1,063
2,603

1,053
2,578

1,115
2,747

2010

- = no data available
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
(a) Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
(b) Includes offshore supply from Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom.
(c) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with "petroleum product supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.
Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3b. Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010

2011

2012

Year
2011

2012

16.16
3.49
2.98
9.69

16.39
3.62
2.93
9.83

16.65
3.84
2.90
9.91

5.32
0.75
3.04
1.06
0.46

4.79
0.78
2.74
0.80
0.46

5.02
0.76
2.87
0.94
0.45

5.24
0.76
2.99
1.03
0.46

4.18
1.98
1.11
0.25

4.27
2.03
1.15
0.24

4.60
2.13
1.32
0.28

4.46
2.10
1.23
0.27

4.35
2.07
1.19
0.25

13.52
1.19
1.81
10.14
0.21
0.39

13.37
1.14
1.82
10.03
0.21
0.38

13.23
1.09
1.83
9.93
0.22
0.38

13.17
1.04
1.61
10.13
0.20
0.39

13.37
1.10
1.70
10.19
0.21
0.39

13.43
1.15
1.81
10.08
0.21
0.38

1.43
0.88
0.38
0.11

1.54
0.88
0.38
0.23

1.54
0.88
0.37
0.24

1.53
0.88
0.37
0.24

1.58
0.87
0.40
0.26

1.42
0.87
0.38
0.12

1.51
0.88
0.37
0.20

9.11
0.55
4.45
0.98
1.02
0.64
0.42

9.25
0.55
4.51
1.01
1.03
0.65
0.45

9.30
0.55
4.56
1.00
1.03
0.63
0.48

9.34
0.56
4.57
1.00
1.03
0.63
0.50

9.37
0.53
4.58
1.01
1.03
0.65
0.52

8.90
0.55
4.27
0.95
1.03
0.67
0.36

9.05
0.53
4.42
1.00
1.01
0.65
0.39

9.32
0.55
4.55
1.01
1.03
0.64
0.49

2.58
0.69
0.30
0.22
0.46

2.55
0.68
0.29
0.21
0.46

2.58
0.70
0.29
0.21
0.46

2.58
0.70
0.29
0.21
0.46

2.57
0.70
0.29
0.20
0.46

2.58
0.70
0.29
0.20
0.46

2.58
0.66
0.32
0.23
0.51

2.56
0.68
0.30
0.21
0.47

2.58
0.70
0.29
0.21
0.46

52.25

52.48

52.32

53.15

53.27

52.94

52.96

51.78

52.28

53.08

5.86
58.10

6.12
58.60

6.11
58.43

6.25
59.40

6.30
59.56

6.35
59.29

6.37
59.33

5.39
57.17

5.91
58.19

6.32
59.40

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

North America ...................................


Canada ................................................
Mexico ..................................................
United States .......................................

15.97
3.37
3.02
9.58

16.04
3.47
2.99
9.58

16.16
3.49
2.97
9.70

16.48
3.64
2.95
9.89

16.34
3.58
2.99
9.77

16.48
3.60
2.99
9.89

16.30
3.62
2.91
9.77

16.44
3.70
2.85
9.89

16.61
3.80
2.93
9.88

16.68
3.82
2.91
9.95

16.66
3.86
2.89
9.91

16.66
3.89
2.88
9.89

Central and South America ............


Argentina .............................................
Brazil ....................................................
Colombia ..............................................
Other Central and S. America .............

4.72
0.80
2.68
0.77
0.47

4.80
0.79
2.75
0.79
0.46

4.81
0.79
2.75
0.80
0.46

4.83
0.75
2.80
0.83
0.45

4.90
0.76
2.82
0.88
0.45

5.05
0.76
2.90
0.94
0.45

5.09
0.77
2.90
0.96
0.46

5.04
0.75
2.86
0.97
0.45

5.12
0.76
2.89
1.00
0.46

5.25
0.76
3.02
1.02
0.46

5.29
0.76
3.02
1.04
0.46

Europe ...............................................
Norway .................................................
United Kingdom (offshore) ..................
Other North Sea ..................................

4.92
2.32
1.46
0.30

4.60
2.11
1.35
0.29

4.24
1.93
1.18
0.25

4.64
2.18
1.30
0.28

4.51
2.10
1.24
0.26

4.43
2.07
1.22
0.28

4.45
2.17
1.16
0.27

4.46
2.06
1.30
0.26

4.56
2.14
1.31
0.26

4.40
2.12
1.19
0.25

Former Soviet Union (FSU) ..............


Azerbaijan ............................................
Kazakhstan ..........................................
Russia ..................................................
Turkmenistan .......................................
Other FSU ...........................................

13.11
1.00
1.61
10.10
0.20
0.41

13.15
1.05
1.57
10.14
0.20
0.39

13.18
1.05
1.61
10.14
0.20
0.38

13.23
1.06
1.66
10.13
0.21
0.39

13.28
1.00
1.67
10.22
0.21
0.39

13.32
1.00
1.67
10.25
0.21
0.39

13.52
1.21
1.72
10.19
0.21
0.39

13.37
1.17
1.72
10.09
0.21
0.39

13.61
1.19
1.79
10.23
0.21
0.39

Middle East ........................................


Oman ...................................................
Syria .....................................................
Yemen .................................................

1.59
0.86
0.40
0.27

1.58
0.86
0.40
0.26

1.57
0.87
0.40
0.25

1.58
0.88
0.40
0.25

1.56
0.89
0.38
0.24

1.40
0.87
0.39
0.09

1.37
0.87
0.38
0.07

1.36
0.86
0.38
0.07

Asia and Oceania ............................


Australia ...............................................
China ...................................................
India .....................................................
Indonesia .............................................
Malaysia ...............................................
Vietnam ................................................

8.68
0.56
4.16
0.91
1.02
0.68
0.35

8.86
0.58
4.23
0.92
1.04
0.67
0.36

9.02
0.55
4.31
0.98
1.04
0.65
0.39

9.02
0.53
4.39
1.00
1.00
0.66
0.36

8.90
0.46
4.36
1.00
1.00
0.66
0.36

9.03
0.54
4.42
1.00
1.00
0.63
0.37

9.18
0.59
4.46
1.00
1.03
0.67
0.41

Africa ..................................................
Egypt ....................................................
Equatorial Guinea ................................
Gabon ..................................................
Sudan ..................................................

2.61
0.66
0.33
0.23
0.51

2.60
0.66
0.33
0.23
0.51

2.57
0.66
0.32
0.23
0.51

2.55
0.66
0.31
0.22
0.51

2.56
0.66
0.31
0.22
0.49

2.54
0.68
0.31
0.20
0.47

Total non-OPEC liquids ....................

51.60

51.64

51.55

52.33

52.06

OPEC non-crude liquids .................


Non-OPEC + OPEC non-crude .......

5.11
56.71

5.37
57.01

5.57
57.11

5.49
57.82

5.54
57.60

2010

- = no data available
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
Sudan production represents total production from both north and south.
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
Not all countries are shown in each region and sum of reported country volumes may not equal regional volumes.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Supply (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010

2011

2012

Year
2011

2012

1.30
1.85
0.49
3.75
2.37
2.28
1.65
2.05
0.85
8.78
2.30
2.11
29.77

29.51

30.01

6.37

5.39

5.91

6.32

36.39

36.73

35.15

35.42

36.33

33.31

33.49

33.67

1.30
1.85
0.49
3.75
2.37
2.60
1.65
2.05
0.85
12.19
2.60
2.11
33.76

32.86

33.42

3.45

3.45

3.31

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.32
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.41
0.30
0.00
3.99

3.35

3.41

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Crude Oil
Algeria ...........................................
Angola ...........................................
Ecudaor .........................................
Iran ................................................
Iraq ................................................
Kuwait ............................................
Libya ..............................................
Nigeria ...........................................
Qatar .............................................
Saudi Arabia .................................
United Arab Emirates ....................
Venezuela .....................................
OPEC Total ................................

1.35
1.97
0.47
3.80
2.42
2.30
1.65
2.03
0.84
8.20
2.30
2.07
29.40

1.30
1.94
0.48
3.80
2.37
2.23
1.65
1.95
0.85
8.70
2.30
2.09
29.65

1.27
1.79
0.49
3.70
2.32
2.30
1.65
2.08
0.85
9.30
2.30
2.10
30.15

1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.40
2.30
1.65
2.12
0.85
8.90
2.30
2.17
29.85

1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.33
1.09
2.13
0.85
9.03
2.43
2.20
29.78

1.27
1.60
0.49
3.70
2.53
2.50
0.20
2.15
0.85
9.13
2.60
2.20
29.22

29.70

29.35

29.78

29.86

30.04

30.36

Other Liquids ..................................

5.11

5.37

5.57

5.49

5.54

5.86

6.12

6.11

6.25

6.30

6.35

Total OPEC Supply ........................

34.51

35.02

35.71

35.35

35.32

35.08

35.82

35.46

36.03

36.16

Crude Oil Production Capacity


Algeria ...........................................
Angola ...........................................
Ecudaor .........................................
Iran ................................................
Iraq ................................................
Kuwait ............................................
Libya ..............................................
Nigeria ...........................................
Qatar .............................................
Saudi Arabia .................................
United Arab Emirates ....................
Venezuela .....................................
OPEC Total ................................

1.35
1.97
0.47
3.80
2.42
2.60
1.65
2.03
0.85
12.00
2.60
2.07
33.69

1.30
1.94
0.48
3.80
2.37
2.60
1.65
1.95
0.85
12.25
2.60
2.09
33.85

1.27
1.79
0.49
3.70
2.32
2.60
1.65
2.08
0.85
12.25
2.60
2.10
33.70

1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.40
2.60
1.65
2.12
0.85
12.25
2.60
2.17
33.81

1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.62
1.09
2.13
0.85
12.25
2.66
2.20
33.48

1.27
1.60
0.49
3.70
2.53
2.64
0.20
2.15
0.85
12.25
2.66
2.20
32.54

32.64

32.80

33.23

Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity


Algeria ...........................................
0.00
Angola ...........................................
0.00
Ecudaor .........................................
0.00
Iran ................................................
0.00
Iraq ................................................
0.00
Kuwait ............................................
0.30
Libya ..............................................
0.00
Nigeria ...........................................
0.00
Qatar .............................................
0.01
Saudi Arabia .................................
3.80
United Arab Emirates ....................
0.30
Venezuela .....................................
0.00
OPEC Total ................................
4.29

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.55
0.30
0.00
4.19

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.95
0.30
0.00
3.55

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.35
0.30
0.00
3.95

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.22
0.23
0.00
3.70

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.12
0.06
0.00
3.32

2.95

3.45

3.45

2010

- = no data available
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3d. World Liquid Fuels Consumption (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

North America ............................................................


Canada ........................................................................
Mexico .........................................................................
United States ...............................................................

23.10
2.15
2.07
18.87

23.43
2.17
2.10
19.15

23.79
2.26
2.05
19.47

23.55
2.25
2.07
19.23

23.35
2.23
2.03
19.09

23.00
2.14
2.18
18.67

23.61
2.28
2.15
19.17

23.58
2.27
2.16
19.14

23.60
2.26
2.18
19.15

23.46
2.17
2.22
19.06

23.78
2.28
2.16
19.33

23.69
2.27
2.17
19.23

Central and South America .....................................


Brazil ............................................................................

6.15
2.51

6.40
2.62

6.39
2.67

6.38
2.65

6.29
2.63

6.55
2.74

6.54
2.80

6.53
2.77

6.50
2.78

6.77
2.89

6.76
2.96

Europe .......................................................................

15.10

15.03

15.75

15.65

14.96

14.85

15.46

15.58

15.15

14.78

Former Soviet Union ..................................................


Russia ..........................................................................

4.32
2.92

4.34
2.94

4.49
3.04

4.45
3.00

4.42
2.95

4.47
3.01

4.62
3.10

4.58
3.06

4.50
2.99

Middle East ................................................................

6.56

7.30

7.87

7.05

6.94

7.58

8.19

7.42

Asia and Oceania .....................................................


China ...........................................................................
Japan ...........................................................................
India .............................................................................

26.93
8.88
4.82
3.36

26.59
9.31
4.07
3.33

25.99
8.89
4.36
3.05

27.37
9.60
4.57
3.30

28.19
9.65
4.86
3.54

27.43
10.11
3.91
3.41

27.31
10.02
4.33
3.13

Africa ..........................................................................

3.37

3.34

3.25

3.34

3.29

3.24

Total OECD Liquid Fuels Consumption ..................


Total non-OECD Liquid Fuels Consumption ...........

45.90
39.63

45.28
41.14

46.60
40.92

46.70
41.08

46.14
41.30

Total World Liquid Fuels Consumption ...................

85.52

86.42

87.52

87.79

World Real Gross Domestic Product (a) .................


Index, 2007 Q1 = 100 ..................................................
Percent change from prior year ...................................

105.93
4.1

107.05
4.5

107.91
4.3

Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate (a)


Index, January 2007 = 100 ..........................................
Percent change from prior year ...................................

97.58
-6.4

99.82
-1.1

98.69
0.8

2010

2011

2012

23.47
2.21
2.07
19.18

23.39
2.23
2.13
19.02

23.63
2.25
2.18
19.19

6.75
2.93

6.33
2.61

6.48
2.73

6.69
2.89

15.29

15.41

15.38

15.22

15.16

4.55
3.04

4.71
3.14

4.67
3.10

4.40
2.98

4.52
3.03

4.61
3.07

7.41

7.91

8.41

7.69

7.20

7.54

7.86

28.32
10.21
4.65
3.37

29.18
10.32
4.93
3.66

28.27
10.58
4.00
3.52

27.84
10.64
4.03
3.24

28.91
10.84
4.40
3.49

26.72
9.17
4.45
3.26

27.81
10.00
4.43
3.36

28.55
10.60
4.34
3.48

3.20

3.26

3.36

3.31

3.27

3.33

3.32

3.25

3.32

44.45
42.68

46.05
42.88

46.73
42.53

46.66
43.05

44.97
44.08

45.75
44.32

46.41
44.03

46.12
40.70

45.84
42.35

45.95
43.87

87.44

87.12

88.93

89.26

89.71

89.06

90.07

90.45

86.82

88.19

89.83

108.93
3.9

109.72
3.6

110.40
3.1

111.57
3.4

112.78
3.5

113.96
3.9

115.05
4.2

116.15
4.1

117.36
4.1

107.47
4.2

111.13
3.4

115.64
4.1

96.17
0.8

97.31
-0.3

97.00
-2.8

96.43
-2.3

95.88
-0.3

95.65
-1.7

95.73
-1.3

95.79
-0.7

95.85
0.0

98.06
-1.5

96.65
-1.4

95.76
-0.9

- = no data available
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
(a) Weighted geometric mean of real indices for various countries with weights equal to each country's share of world oil consumption in the base period. Exchange rate is measured in foreign currency per U.S.
dollar.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 4a. U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
1st
Supply (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil Supply
Domestic Production (a) .........................................
Alaska .................................................................
Federal Gulf of Mexico (b) ...................................
Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ...............................
Crude Oil Net Imports (c) ........................................
SPR Net Withdrawals ............................................
Commercial Inventory Net Withdrawals .................
Crude Oil Adjustment (d) ........................................
Total Crude Oil Input to Refineries ............................
Other Supply
Refinery Processing Gain .......................................
Natural Gas Liquids Production .............................
Renewables and Oxygenate Production (e) ...........
Fuel Ethanol Production ......................................
Petroleum Products Adjustment (f) ........................
Product Net Imports (c) ..........................................
Pentanes Plus .....................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .....................................
Unfinished Oils ....................................................
Other HC/Oxygenates ..........................................
Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. ..............................
Finished Motor Gasoline .....................................
Jet Fuel ................................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil .................................................
Residual Fuel Oil .................................................
Other Oils (g) .......................................................
Product Inventory Net Withdrawals ........................
Total Supply ...............................................................

2nd

2011

2012

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

5.49
0.64
1.71
3.14
8.82
0.00
-0.38
0.04
13.98

5.40
0.58
1.65
3.17
9.73
0.00
-0.07
0.18
15.24

5.46
0.57
1.58
3.32
9.52
0.00
0.03
0.12
15.13

5.54
0.61
1.56
3.37
8.61
0.00
0.32
0.06
14.54

5.57
0.56
1.54
3.47
8.68
0.00
-0.32
0.31
14.23

5.60
0.56
1.50
3.55
8.90
0.00
0.04
0.21
14.75

5.46
0.51
1.39
3.56
9.49
0.33
-0.11
0.07
15.25

5.64
0.56
1.43
3.65
8.69
0.00
0.24
-0.02
14.54

5.69
0.56
1.45
3.68
8.91
0.00
-0.21
0.07
14.46

5.67
0.54
1.41
3.72
9.25
0.00
0.10
0.09
15.12

5.62
0.52
1.35
3.75
9.28
0.00
0.17
0.03
15.09

5.64
0.50
1.35
3.79
8.75
0.00
0.15
-0.02
14.53

5.47
0.60
1.63
3.25
9.17
0.00
-0.02
0.10
14.72

5.57
0.55
1.47
3.56
8.94
0.08
-0.04
0.14
14.70

5.65
0.53
1.39
3.73
9.05
0.00
0.05
0.04
14.80

1.03
2.05
0.87
0.84
0.15
0.54
-0.03
0.08
0.52
-0.06
0.61
-0.12
0.01
-0.10
-0.02
-0.35
0.26
18.87

1.06
2.07
0.89
0.85
0.16
0.26
-0.01
-0.01
0.57
-0.07
0.74
-0.11
0.02
-0.48
-0.03
-0.38
-0.53
19.15

1.10
2.06
0.91
0.87
0.18
0.35
0.01
-0.02
0.65
-0.09
0.83
-0.12
0.03
-0.54
-0.07
-0.34
-0.24
19.47

1.08
2.13
0.95
0.91
0.18
-0.06
0.01
0.03
0.68
-0.09
0.62
-0.30
-0.01
-0.58
-0.03
-0.39
0.41
19.23

1.03
2.04
0.95
0.91
0.18
0.05
0.01
0.04
0.62
-0.10
0.65
-0.30
-0.04
-0.44
0.02
-0.39
0.60
19.08

1.04
2.16
0.94
0.89
0.18
0.00
0.03
-0.08
0.67
-0.10
0.84
-0.32
-0.01
-0.67
-0.01
-0.36
-0.37
18.69

1.04
2.17
0.92
0.88
0.12
0.13
-0.01
-0.01
0.72
-0.08
0.77
-0.20
0.00
-0.60
-0.09
-0.37
-0.44
19.20

1.04
2.14
0.93
0.89
0.13
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
0.64
-0.09
0.66
-0.29
0.00
-0.42
-0.09
-0.39
0.40
19.17

1.00
2.12
0.93
0.90
0.13
0.20
-0.02
-0.01
0.62
-0.08
0.68
-0.23
0.00
-0.48
0.02
-0.29
0.32
19.16

1.02
2.19
0.93
0.90
0.13
0.16
-0.02
-0.06
0.64
-0.08
0.74
-0.20
0.02
-0.48
-0.01
-0.39
-0.48
19.07

1.05
2.18
0.93
0.90
0.13
0.20
-0.02
-0.07
0.72
-0.08
0.71
-0.11
0.02
-0.49
-0.06
-0.42
-0.25
19.33

1.04
2.15
0.93
0.90
0.13
0.06
-0.01
-0.03
0.63
-0.08
0.71
-0.30
0.01
-0.36
-0.07
-0.44
0.39
19.24

1.07
2.07
0.91
0.87
0.17
0.27
-0.01
0.02
0.61
-0.08
0.70
-0.16
0.01
-0.43
-0.04
-0.36
-0.03
19.18

1.04
2.13
0.93
0.89
0.15
0.05
0.00
-0.02
0.66
-0.09
0.73
-0.28
-0.01
-0.53
-0.04
-0.38
0.04
19.04

1.03
2.16
0.93
0.90
0.13
0.16
-0.02
-0.04
0.66
-0.08
0.71
-0.21
0.01
-0.45
-0.03
-0.39
-0.01
19.20

0.09
2.46
0.03

0.07
1.89
0.02

0.11
2.03
0.00

0.10
2.32
0.00

0.10
2.45
0.06

0.09
1.94
-0.03

0.09
2.00
0.00

0.10
2.24
0.01

0.08
2.42
0.01

0.08
1.96
0.00

0.09
2.04
0.00

0.10
2.26
0.02

0.09
2.17
0.01

0.10
2.16
0.01

0.09
2.17
0.01

8.63
1.38
3.79
0.55
1.93
18.87

9.19
1.47
3.71
0.54
2.25
19.15

9.22
1.48
3.75
0.53
2.35
19.47

8.92
1.40
3.94
0.52
2.04
19.23

8.60
1.36
3.95
0.60
1.96
19.09

8.92
1.44
3.66
0.53
2.14
18.67

9.12
1.48
3.71
0.48
2.30
19.18

8.87
1.42
3.97
0.50
2.05
19.17

8.67
1.40
3.98
0.59
2.02
19.16

9.01
1.46
3.78
0.57
2.22
19.07

9.17
1.48
3.78
0.51
2.27
19.33

8.88
1.43
4.04
0.51
2.01
19.24

8.99
1.43
3.80
0.54
2.14
19.18

8.88
1.43
3.82
0.53
2.11
19.03

8.93
1.44
3.89
0.54
2.13
19.20

................................

9.36

9.99

9.87

8.55

8.74

8.90

9.62

8.68

9.11

9.42

9.47

8.82

9.44

8.98

9.20

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)


Commercial Inventory
Crude Oil (excluding SPR) .....................................
Pentanes Plus ........................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ........................................
Unfinished Oils .......................................................
Other HC/Oxygenates .............................................
Total Motor Gasoline ..............................................
Finished Motor Gasoline .....................................
Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. ..............................
Jet Fuel ...................................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil ....................................................
Residual Fuel Oil ....................................................
Other Oils (f) ...........................................................
Total Commercial Inventory .......................................
Crude Oil in SPR .......................................................
Heating Oil Reserve ..................................................

359.2
9.4
72.9
87.2
22.6
225.0
81.9
143.1
42.2
146.8
40.7
54.4
1,060
727
2.0

365.5
11.5
119.9
84.2
20.5
215.6
71.8
143.8
44.8
157.9
42.7
52.3
1,115
727
2.0

362.8
11.9
141.4
83.3
18.9
219.3
70.2
149.0
46.8
166.7
40.1
43.4
1,135
727
2.0

333.4
12.5
108.3
80.6
19.4
219.4
63.3
156.2
43.2
164.3
41.3
45.0
1,068
727
2.0

362.6
10.8
68.7
87.4
23.2
214.9
60.8
154.1
40.0
148.5
37.1
49.6
1,043
727
0.0

358.6
14.5
104.8
86.4
21.9
212.5
56.8
155.8
43.3
144.1
37.8
49.1
1,073
727
0.0

368.6
15.1
138.7
85.0
22.4
213.4
54.4
159.0
44.3
158.3
36.6
41.5
1,124
696
1.5

346.9
12.4
106.5
81.1
21.8
218.7
54.3
164.5
42.2
156.8
36.5
42.8
1,066
696
2.0

365.7
11.8
74.9
90.1
23.8
219.1
52.3
166.8
42.2
136.5
38.5
52.4
1,055
696
2.0

356.5
13.4
115.0
86.6
22.9
217.9
55.6
162.2
42.8
146.0
39.1
49.9
1,090
696
2.0

341.3
14.2
141.1
85.6
23.4
212.4
55.9
156.5
43.9
155.1
38.1
42.8
1,098
696
2.0

327.0
11.7
106.1
80.0
22.9
220.7
56.3
164.4
41.4
155.7
38.5
43.8
1,048
696
2.0

333.4
12.5
108.3
80.6
19.4
219.4
63.3
156.2
43.2
164.3
41.3
45.0
1,068
727
2.0

346.9
12.4
106.5
81.1
21.8
218.7
54.3
164.5
42.2
156.8
36.5
42.8
1,066
696
2.0

327.0
11.7
106.1
80.0
22.9
220.7
56.3
164.4
41.4
155.7
38.5
43.8
1,048
696
2.0

Consumption (million barrels per day)


Natural Gas Liquids and Other Liquids
Pentanes Plus ........................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ........................................
Unfinished Oils .......................................................
Finished Liquid Fuels
Motor Gasoline .......................................................
Jet Fuel ...................................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil ....................................................
Residual Fuel Oil ....................................................
Other Oils (f) ...........................................................
Total Consumption ....................................................
Total Liquid Fuels Net Imports

- = no data available
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Crude oil production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).
(c) Net imports equals gross imports minus gross exports.
(d) Crude oil adjustment balances supply and consumption and was previously referred to as "Unaccounted for Crude Oil."
(e) Renewables and oxygenate production includes pentanes plus, oxygenates (excluding fuel ethanol), and renewable fuels.
(f) Petroleum products adjustment includes hydrogen/oxygenates/renewables/other hydrocarbons, motor gasoline blend components, and finished motor gasoline.
(g) "Other Oils" inludes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still
gas, and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
SPR: Strategic Petroleum Reserve
HC: Hydrocarbons
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 4b. U.S. Petroleum Refinery Balance (Million Barrels per Day, Except Utilization Factor)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
1st

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

2012

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

Refinery and Blender Net Inputs


Crude OIl ............................................................
Pentanes Plus .....................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ....................................
Other Hydrocarbons/Oxygenates .......................
Unfinished Oils ....................................................
Motor Gasoline Blend Components ....................
Aviation Gasoline Blend Components ................
Total Refinery and Blender Net Inputs ...................

13.98
0.14
0.30
0.88
0.41
0.48
0.00
16.20

15.24
0.15
0.24
0.97
0.58
0.73
0.00
17.91

15.13
0.16
0.24
0.98
0.66
0.86
0.00
18.03

14.54
0.17
0.37
0.99
0.71
0.61
0.00
17.38

14.23
0.17
0.34
0.96
0.48
0.60
0.00
16.78

14.75
0.18
0.26
1.00
0.71
0.82
0.00
17.72

15.25
0.16
0.27
0.95
0.74
0.69
0.00
18.05

14.54
0.17
0.38
0.93
0.67
0.59
0.00
17.29

14.46
0.16
0.31
0.94
0.51
0.62
0.00
16.99

15.12
0.15
0.25
0.97
0.68
0.74
0.00
17.91

15.09
0.16
0.26
0.95
0.73
0.75
0.00
17.94

14.53
0.17
0.38
0.95
0.68
0.61
0.00
17.32

14.72
0.16
0.29
0.96
0.59
0.67
0.00
17.38

14.70
0.17
0.31
0.96
0.65
0.67
0.00
17.46

14.80
0.16
0.30
0.95
0.65
0.68
0.00
17.54

Refinery Processing Gain .................................

1.03

1.06

1.10

1.08

1.03

1.04

1.04

1.04

1.00

1.02

1.05

1.04

1.07

1.04

1.03

Refinery and Blender Net Production


Liquefied Petroleum Gas ....................................
Finished Motor Gasoline .....................................
Jet Fuel ...............................................................
Distillate Fuel ......................................................
Residual Fuel ......................................................
Other Oils (a) ......................................................
Total Refinery and Blender Net Production ...........

0.58
8.59
1.35
3.68
0.61
2.40
17.22

0.86
9.13
1.47
4.31
0.59
2.61
18.97

0.75
9.36
1.47
4.39
0.57
2.59
19.13

0.44
9.14
1.38
4.50
0.56
2.44
18.46

0.52
8.76
1.37
4.21
0.53
2.41
17.80

0.80
9.15
1.48
4.28
0.55
2.49
18.76

0.77
9.22
1.49
4.48
0.55
2.59
19.10

0.43
9.08
1.39
4.38
0.58
2.45
18.33

0.53
8.81
1.40
4.24
0.59
2.42
17.99

0.82
9.15
1.45
4.36
0.58
2.58
18.93

0.77
9.21
1.47
4.37
0.56
2.62
18.99

0.42
9.11
1.39
4.40
0.58
2.46
18.36

0.66
9.06
1.42
4.22
0.58
2.51
18.45

0.63
9.06
1.43
4.34
0.56
2.48
18.50

0.64
9.07
1.43
4.34
0.58
2.52
18.57

Refinery Distillation Inputs ...............................


Refinery Operable Distillation Capacity ..........
Refinery Distillation Utilization Factor ..............

14.32
17.59
0.81

15.66
17.57
0.89

15.65
17.59
0.89

15.06
17.55
0.86

14.69
17.70
0.83

15.14
17.72
0.85

15.60
17.73
0.88

14.91
17.73
0.84

14.80
17.73
0.83

15.43
17.73
0.87

15.43
17.73
0.87

14.89
17.73
0.84

15.18
17.57
0.86

15.09
17.72
0.85

15.14
17.73
0.85

- = no data available
(a) "Other Oils" includes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still
gas, and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
1st

2nd

Prices (cents per gallon)


Refiner Wholesale Price .......................
211
Gasoline Regular Grade Retail Prices Including Taxes
PADD 1 ..............................................
271
PADD 2 ..............................................
265
PADD 3 ..............................................
259
PADD 4 ..............................................
264
PADD 5 ..............................................
294
U.S. Average ...................................
271
Gasoline All Grades Including Taxes
277
End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)
Total Gasoline Inventories
PADD 1 ..............................................
56.8
PADD 2 ..............................................
55.2
PADD 3 ..............................................
74.9
PADD 4 ..............................................
5.9
PADD 5 ..............................................
32.3
U.S. Total ........................................
225.0
Finished Gasoline Inventories
U.S. Total ........................................
81.9
Gasoline Blending Components Inventories
U.S. Total ........................................
143.1

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

218

210

227

267

311

291

279

289

302

303

294

217

287

297

278
276
269
284
304
281
286

265
270
257
279
304
272
277

288
286
272
279
311
288
294

329
326
314
311
353
329
335

377
380
365
365
400
379
385

359
354
343
352
375
358
363

343
338
329
340
369
344
350

354
347
341
345
380
354
360

366
362
355
363
399
369
374

369
366
355
370
399
371
377

360
353
345
357
388
360
366

275
274
264
276
303
278
283

352
350
338
342
375
353
358

362
357
349
359
392
364
369

60.1
49.3
72.5
6.4
27.3
215.6

55.3
52.5
73.9
6.5
31.1
219.3

52.7
49.1
78.4
7.0
32.3
219.4

55.0
50.5
70.3
6.5
32.7
214.9

55.3
49.6
71.2
6.9
29.5
212.5

55.6
51.2
71.4
6.4
28.8
213.4

56.9
50.4
74.0
6.9
30.5
218.7

56.9
51.5
74.3
6.7
29.7
219.1

57.5
50.6
73.3
6.2
30.2
217.9

55.8
50.3
70.9
6.3
29.1
212.4

58.0
51.1
74.2
6.9
30.5
220.7

52.7
49.1
78.4
7.0
32.3
219.4

56.9
50.4
74.0
6.9
30.5
218.7

58.0
51.1
74.2
6.9
30.5
220.7

71.8

70.2

63.3

60.8

56.8

54.4

54.3

52.3

55.6

55.9

56.3

63.3

54.3

56.3

143.8

149.0

156.2

154.1

155.8

159.0

164.5

166.8

162.2

156.5

164.4

156.2

164.5

164.4

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD).
See Petroleum for Administration Defense District in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 5a. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Inventories


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010

2011

2012

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

60.59
1.16
6.67
52.77
57.93
11.42
9.87
1.55
3.12
8.29
0.20
16.26
82.68
0.74
83.41

61.27
0.98
6.22
54.07
58.56
9.65
8.44
1.22
2.77
6.89
0.16
-11.94
53.67
0.75
54.42

61.97
0.89
5.94
55.14
59.28
9.95
9.01
0.94
2.71
7.23
0.19
-8.22
58.48
-0.55
57.93

63.46
1.11
5.82
56.54
60.66
10.00
8.97
1.02
3.85
6.14
0.19
4.08
71.07
-2.08
68.99

63.83
1.12
5.60
57.10
61.05
11.07
9.84
1.23
4.50
6.57
0.20
16.97
84.80
-0.92
83.87

65.99
0.99
5.36
59.64
63.01
9.02
7.97
1.05
4.24
4.78
0.14
-10.44
57.48
-1.42
56.07

66.05
0.95
5.14
59.96
63.06
9.48
8.63
0.85
4.03
5.45
0.17
-10.51
58.16
0.42
58.58

66.13
1.08
5.39
59.67
63.13
9.18
8.31
0.87
4.25
4.92
0.19
3.57
71.81
-0.71
71.10

66.15
1.15
5.48
59.52
63.15
10.52
9.32
1.19
4.57
5.95
0.19
14.46
83.75
0.10
83.85

65.95
0.94
5.37
59.64
62.96
8.84
7.86
0.98
4.26
4.58
0.16
-11.43
56.27
-0.24
56.03

65.96
0.97
5.08
59.91
62.96
9.19
8.35
0.84
4.06
5.14
0.17
-9.12
59.15
0.38
59.53

66.43
1.09
5.19
60.15
63.41
8.76
7.89
0.87
4.29
4.47
0.19
4.08
72.14
-0.19
71.96

61.83
1.03
6.16
54.64
59.12
10.25
9.07
1.18
3.11
7.13
0.18
-0.01
66.42
-0.29
66.13

65.51
1.03
5.37
59.10
62.57
9.68
8.68
1.00
4.25
5.43
0.17
-0.17
68.00
-0.65
67.35

66.12
1.04
5.28
59.80
63.12
9.33
8.36
0.97
4.29
5.03
0.18
-0.52
67.82
0.01
67.83

Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)


Residential ...................................
26.69
Commercial .................................
14.81
Industrial ......................................
19.70
Electric Power (c) .........................
16.37
Lease and Plant Fuel ...................
3.58
Pipeline and Distribution Use .......
2.18
Vehicle Use .................................
0.09
Total Consumption ..........................
83.41

7.33
5.73
17.12
19.11
3.62
1.43
0.09
54.42

3.76
4.24
17.01
27.66
3.66
1.52
0.09
57.93

16.73
10.46
18.53
17.62
3.75
1.81
0.09
68.99

26.14
14.65
20.23
16.79
3.77
2.20
0.09
83.87

7.30
5.65
17.53
20.10
3.90
1.50
0.09
56.07

3.58
3.93
17.13
28.34
3.90
1.61
0.09
58.58

17.41
10.58
18.68
18.54
3.90
1.89
0.09
71.10

25.61
14.43
20.17
17.31
3.90
2.33
0.09
83.85

6.70
5.54
17.62
20.61
3.89
1.59
0.09
56.03

3.62
3.95
17.38
28.98
3.89
1.60
0.09
59.53

17.43
10.65
19.07
18.91
3.92
1.89
0.09
71.96

13.57
8.79
18.08
20.21
3.65
1.73
0.09
66.13

13.56
8.68
18.38
20.97
3.87
1.80
0.09
67.35

13.32
8.63
18.56
21.47
3.90
1.85
0.09
67.83

End-of-period Inventories (billion cubic feet)


Working Gas Inventory ................
1,662
Producing Region (d) ................
627
East Consuming Region (d) ......
744
West Consuming Region (d) .....
291

2,741
962
1,330
450

3,500
1,092
1,913
495

3,107
1,077
1,591
439

1,581
738
618
225

2,527
987
1,189
351

3,494
1,129
1,886
479

3,166
1,090
1,666
410

1,851
800
776
275

2,891
1,062
1,407
422

3,730
1,179
2,055
496

3,355
1,126
1,778
452

3,107
1,077
1,591
439

3,166
1,090
1,666
410

3,355
1,126
1,778
452

Supply (billion cubic feet per day)


Total Marketed Production ............
Alaska ......................................
Federal GOM (a) .......................
Lower 48 States (excl GOM) .....
Total Dry Gas Production .............
Gross Imports ..............................
Pipeline ....................................
LNG ..........................................
Gross Exports ..............................
Net Imports ..................................
Supplemental Gaseous Fuels ......
Net Inventory Withdrawals ...........
Total Supply ....................................
Balancing Item (b) ..........................
Total Primary Supply .......................

2010

Year
2011

1st

2012

- = no data available
(a) Marketed production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico.
(b) The balancing item represents the difference between the sum of the components of natural gas supply and the sum of components of natural gas demand.
(c) Natural gas used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(d) For a list of States in each inventory region refer toMethodology for EIA Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Estimates (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/methodology.html).
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
LNG: liquefied natural gas.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; and Electric Power Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
1st
Wholesale/Spot
U.S. Average Wellhead ......
Henry Hub Spot Price ........
Residential
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
Commercial
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
Industrial
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

4.79
5.30

4.07
4.45

4.11
4.41

3.67
3.91

4.06
4.31

4.10
4.50

4.04
4.33

3.91
4.31

4.01
4.48

3.87
4.31

4.03
4.46

4.46
4.93

4.15
4.52

4.03
4.36

4.09
4.55

14.33
12.79
9.54
9.09
12.61
10.50
9.72
9.24
10.43
10.59

15.56
15.17
12.24
11.89
18.74
14.81
13.93
9.83
10.47
12.54

17.73
18.46
16.66
16.50
24.07
17.75
18.19
13.03
11.10
15.47

14.29
12.74
9.37
9.34
12.28
10.73
10.22
9.25
9.89
10.56

13.99
11.85
8.87
8.84
11.97
9.91
8.60
8.87
9.98
9.97

14.14
13.93
10.92
11.16
17.67
13.65
14.38
9.70
10.65
11.91

17.43
18.34
16.38
17.17
24.67
18.24
18.65
13.06
10.65
16.09

14.85
14.28
10.31
9.58
15.29
12.69
11.26
9.47
10.12
11.77

14.33
13.00
9.46
8.89
13.33
11.88
10.10
8.49
10.25
10.79

15.27
14.33
11.56
11.54
17.96
14.95
14.24
9.32
10.21
12.45

18.20
18.38
16.86
17.77
24.94
19.16
19.08
13.28
11.00
16.44

15.58
14.51
11.17
10.37
16.18
13.60
12.08
9.96
10.85
12.44

14.78
13.46
10.24
9.91
13.71
11.33
10.94
9.63
10.37
11.18

14.52
13.28
10.03
9.85
14.45
11.55
10.77
9.52
10.24
11.22

15.12
13.98
10.68
10.16
15.49
13.10
11.87
9.42
10.50
11.93

11.68
10.76
8.85
8.36
10.53
9.42
8.48
8.33
9.48
9.30

11.68
9.77
9.24
8.38
10.74
10.12
9.06
8.11
8.97
9.25

11.45
9.51
9.67
9.54
10.74
10.23
9.17
8.89
9.21
9.63

11.01
9.70
8.14
7.70
9.50
9.08
7.62
8.12
9.10
8.66

11.14
9.85
8.42
7.92
9.80
8.80
7.34
7.99
9.15
8.74

10.71
9.74
8.91
8.37
10.83
9.51
8.72
7.91
9.06
9.16

11.42
9.92
9.47
9.54
11.18
10.54
9.46
8.64
8.84
9.81

11.93
10.90
8.80
7.97
11.09
10.54
8.89
8.51
9.16
9.66

11.98
10.59
8.77
8.06
10.77
9.97
8.23
8.27
9.05
9.41

12.10
10.13
9.22
8.25
11.05
10.45
8.60
8.13
8.48
9.46

12.15
9.95
9.66
9.79
11.38
10.92
9.46
9.03
8.79
9.96

12.59
11.05
9.32
8.48
11.49
11.16
9.42
8.80
9.66
10.08

11.47
10.15
8.76
8.28
10.28
9.51
8.48
8.29
9.21
9.14

11.30
10.14
8.69
8.13
10.63
9.55
8.29
8.20
9.08
9.22

12.17
10.56
9.06
8.34
11.12
10.46
8.77
8.48
9.05
9.69

11.41
10.04
7.98
6.73
7.61
7.21
5.58
7.32
7.77
6.51

9.74
9.01
7.01
5.65
6.14
5.64
4.36
6.36
7.01
4.98

9.07
9.01
6.96
5.59
6.28
5.61
4.59
6.59
7.01
5.07

10.21
9.54
6.88
5.74
6.09
5.44
3.98
6.40
6.92
4.89

10.67
9.58
7.39
6.28
6.52
5.83
4.24
6.81
7.23
5.41

9.87
9.10
7.18
5.64
6.41
5.79
4.56
6.35
7.13
5.21

10.24
8.93
7.33
5.40
7.17
6.43
4.78
6.91
7.01
5.40

11.31
10.23
7.25
5.94
7.53
6.95
4.54
7.79
7.95
5.67

12.02
10.06
7.62
6.42
7.45
7.14
4.54
7.86
7.78
5.89

11.18
8.64
7.17
5.30
6.76
6.24
4.67
6.75
6.40
5.31

10.64
8.61
7.41
5.51
7.30
6.71
4.81
7.13
6.39
5.42

12.01
10.60
7.85
6.34
8.10
7.53
4.99
8.11
7.97
6.10

10.37
9.60
7.38
6.01
6.61
6.06
4.62
6.72
7.21
5.40

10.64
9.58
7.30
5.84
6.94
6.27
4.54
6.98
7.35
5.43

11.63
9.74
7.58
5.97
7.43
6.94
4.76
7.54
7.24
5.70

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130.
Natural gas Henry Hub spot price from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 6. U.S. Coal Supply, Consumption, and Inventories


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

Supply (million short tons)


Production ........................................
Appalachia ....................................
Interior ..........................................
Western ........................................
Primary Inventory Withdrawals ..........
Imports ............................................
Exports ............................................
Metallurgical Coal ..........................
Steam Coal ...................................
Total Primary Supply ...........................

265.3
84.4
37.7
143.3
-2.4
4.8
17.8
14.2
3.6
249.9

265.1
84.4
37.8
142.8
1.5
5.1
22.0
15.6
6.4
249.7

278.2
83.5
41.4
153.3
6.2
4.7
21.1
13.0
8.0
268.0

276.6
83.8
40.7
152.1
0.3
4.8
20.9
13.3
7.6
260.8

273.6
87.3
41.5
144.8
4.8
3.4
26.6
17.2
9.5
255.2

258.1
84.2
38.3
135.7
-1.7
4.0
26.2
17.9
8.4
236.8

262.7
83.7
38.4
140.5
1.0
5.2
22.6
15.4
7.1
259.7

272.1
88.0
39.6
144.5
1.2
4.8
22.1
15.1
7.0
256.0

276.0
82.5
39.2
154.3
-4.6
4.5
18.7
14.6
4.1
257.1

256.6
79.0
36.7
140.9
0.5
4.4
22.2
15.3
7.0
239.2

269.1
82.9
36.5
149.7
3.8
5.2
21.6
13.5
8.1
256.5

267.9
82.8
36.8
148.3
-0.2
4.8
20.7
13.7
7.0
251.7

1085.3
336.1
157.6
591.6
5.6
19.4
81.7
56.1
25.6
1028.5

1066.5
343.2
157.7
565.6
5.2
17.3
97.5
65.5
32.0
1007.6

1069.6
327.2
149.2
593.2
-0.5
18.9
83.3
57.1
26.2
1004.6

Secondary Inventory Withdrawals .....


Waste Coal (a) .................................
Total Supply ........................................

13.1
3.1
266.1

-3.8
3.3
249.1

18.1
3.2
289.4

-12.5
3.2
251.6

9.2
3.2
267.6

-5.7
3.2
234.2

13.2
3.2
276.1

-4.6
3.2
254.6

7.0
3.2
267.4

-10.1
3.2
232.3

12.5
3.2
272.2

-4.6
3.2
250.3

14.9
12.7
1056.1

12.1
12.7
1032.5

4.7
12.8
1022.1

Consumption (million short tons)


Coke Plants .....................................
Electric Power Sector (b) ..................
Retail and Other Industry ..................
Residential and Commercial ..........
Other Industrial .............................
Total Consumption .............................

4.9
246.3
13.4
1.0
12.4
264.6

5.4
229.8
12.3
0.6
11.7
247.4

5.5
267.9
12.8
0.6
12.1
286.1

5.4
231.6
13.2
0.8
12.4
250.1

5.9
235.1
13.4
1.1
12.3
254.5

5.7
221.4
12.4
0.6
11.8
239.5

6.7
256.7
12.7
0.6
12.1
276.1

6.4
235.2
13.0
0.8
12.2
254.6

6.3
247.4
13.6
1.0
12.6
267.4

6.0
213.4
13.0
0.8
12.1
232.3

6.6
252.8
12.7
0.8
11.9
272.2

6.2
230.7
13.3
1.2
12.1
250.3

21.1
975.6
51.6
3.1
48.5
1048.3

24.7
948.4
51.5
3.1
48.3
1024.6

25.1
944.4
52.6
3.9
48.7
1022.1

1.5

1.7

3.2

1.4

13.1

-5.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

7.8

7.8

0.0

End-of-period Inventories (million short tons)


Primary Inventories (d) ......................
50.2
Secondary Inventories ......................
184.0
Electric Power Sector ....................
177.8
Retail and General Industry ...........
4.2
Coke Plants ..................................
1.6

48.7
187.8
181.1
4.3
2.0

42.4
169.7
162.8
4.5
1.9

42.2
182.2
175.2
4.5
1.9

37.3
172.9
167.0
3.8
1.6

39.1
178.7
172.0
4.1
2.1

38.1
165.4
158.3
4.6
2.0

36.9
170.1
162.5
4.9
2.1

41.5
163.1
156.4
4.2
1.8

41.0
173.2
165.9
4.5
2.2

37.2
160.7
152.9
5.1
2.2

37.4
165.3
157.2
5.4
2.2

42.2
182.2
175.2
4.5
1.9

36.9
170.1
162.5
4.9
2.1

37.4
165.3
157.2
5.4
2.2

5.58

5.58

5.59

5.60

5.57

5.57

5.57

5.57

5.70

5.70

5.70

5.70

5.59

5.57

5.70

0.234

0.253

0.245

0.237

0.257

0.261

0.263

0.248

0.261

0.272

0.262

0.249

0.242

0.257

0.261

2.26

2.26

2.28

2.25

2.35

2.42

2.40

2.34

2.41

2.39

2.36

2.32

2.26

2.38

2.37

Discrepancy (c)

Coal Market Indicators


Coal Miner Productivity
(Tons per hour) .............................
Total Raw Steel Production
(Million short tons per day) ............
Cost of Coal to Electric Utilities
(Dollars per million Btu) .................

- = no data available
(a) Waste coal includes waste coal and cloal slurry reprocessed into briquettes.
(b) Coal used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(c) The discrepancy reflects an unaccounted-for shipper and receiver reporting difference, assumed to be zero in the forecast period.
(d) Primary stocks are held at the mines and distribution points.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Quarterly Coal Report , DOE/EIA-0121; and Electric Power Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7a. U.S. Electricity Industry Overview


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
1st
2nd
Electricity Supply (billion kilowatthours per day)
Electricity Generation ....................
11.01
10.90
Electric Power Sector (a) ............
10.61
10.50
Industrial Sector .........................
0.38
0.38
Commercial Sector .....................
0.02
0.02
Net Imports .................................
0.12
0.07
Total Supply ..................................
11.13
10.97
Losses and Unaccounted for (b) ...
0.52
0.95
Electricity Consumption (billion kilowatthours per day)
Retail Sales ..................................
10.25
9.66
Residential Sector ......................
4.26
3.41
Commercial Sector .....................
3.45
3.57
Industrial Sector .........................
2.51
2.66
Transportation Sector .................
0.02
0.02
Direct Use (c) ................................
0.37
0.36
Total Consumption .......................
10.61
10.02
Prices
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)
Coal ...........................................
2.26
2.26
Natural Gas ...............................
6.06
4.89
Residual Fuel Oil ........................
12.10
12.36
Distillate Fuel Oil ........................
15.84
16.48
End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)
Residential Sector ......................
10.88
11.90
Commercial Sector .....................
9.87
10.30
Industrial Sector .........................
6.53
6.75

2011

2012
2010

Year
2011

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2012

12.65
12.22
0.40
0.02
0.06
12.71
0.70

10.58
10.19
0.37
0.02
0.04
10.62
0.70

11.04
10.65
0.37
0.02
0.08
11.12
0.52

10.94
10.55
0.37
0.02
0.10
11.05
0.91

12.62
12.19
0.41
0.02
0.14
12.76
0.78

10.72
10.32
0.38
0.02
0.09
10.81
0.75

11.29
10.87
0.40
0.02
0.09
11.38
0.59

11.04
10.63
0.39
0.02
0.08
11.13
0.90

12.70
12.26
0.42
0.02
0.11
12.81
0.80

10.90
10.49
0.39
0.02
0.07
10.98
0.75

11.29
10.88
0.38
0.02
0.07
11.36
0.72

11.33
10.93
0.38
0.02
0.11
11.44
0.74

11.49
11.06
0.40
0.02
0.09
11.57
0.76

11.62
4.74
4.09
2.76
0.02
0.39
12.01

9.56
3.48
3.45
2.61
0.02
0.36
9.92

10.25
4.15
3.45
2.62
0.02
0.35
10.60

9.78
3.50
3.60
2.66
0.02
0.35
10.13

11.59
4.64
4.15
2.79
0.02
0.39
11.98

9.69
3.51
3.51
2.65
0.02
0.37
10.06

10.40
4.19
3.53
2.67
0.02
0.38
10.78

9.85
3.42
3.65
2.76
0.02
0.37
10.23

11.61
4.57
4.17
2.85
0.02
0.40
12.01

9.86
3.57
3.58
2.69
0.02
0.37
10.23

10.27
3.97
3.64
2.64
0.02
0.37
10.64

10.33
3.95
3.68
2.68
0.02
0.37
10.70

10.43
3.94
3.73
2.74
0.02
0.38
10.82

2.28
4.88
12.36
16.18

2.25
4.69
14.19
17.94

2.35
5.05
15.88
20.99

2.42
4.92
18.42
23.64

2.40
4.98
18.06
22.95

2.34
4.97
17.79
22.93

2.41
5.17
18.37
23.26

2.39
4.93
18.73
23.31

2.36
5.04
18.91
23.74

2.32
5.52
19.08
24.12

2.26
5.08
12.63
16.60

2.38
4.98
17.70
22.60

2.37
5.15
18.78
23.63

12.02
10.71
7.17

11.50
10.06
6.67

11.24
10.01
6.68

12.03
10.40
6.85

12.34
10.88
7.41

11.71
10.31
6.84

11.26
10.20
6.70

12.21
10.58
6.87

12.51
11.09
7.33

11.89
10.41
6.85

11.58
10.26
6.79

11.85
10.42
6.95

11.97
10.59
6.94

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) Includes transmission and distribution losses, data collection time-frame differences, and estimation error.
(c) Direct Use represents commercial and industrial facility use of onsite net electricity generation; and electrical sales or transfers to adjacent or colocated facilities
for which revenue information is not available. See Table 7.6 of the EIA Monthly Energy Review .
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7b. U.S. Regional Electricity Retail Sales (Million Kilowatthours per Day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
1st
Residential Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Commercial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Industrial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Total All Sectors (a)
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

141
394
579
337
1,129
405
595
243
424
15
4,261

114
326
456
250
878
291
514
227
346
13
3,414

150
444
639
350
1,232
428
771
325
391
13
4,742

122
335
481
261
891
294
467
225
390
15
3,482

145
405
577
331
1,042
373
574
248
441
15
4,152

115
330
457
256
897
295
560
225
350
13
3,499

145
426
626
357
1,165
405
793
312
395
13
4,635

123
339
488
271
879
287
475
233
398
15
3,507

146
407
583
334
1,069
374
561
252
445
15
4,188

116
330
458
258
862
287
511
233
355
13
3,424

143
417
607
350
1,155
399
763
318
403
14
4,569

125
344
492
276
890
297
488
239
404
15
3,570

132
375
539
300
1,032
354
587
255
388
14
3,975

132
375
537
304
996
340
601
254
396
14
3,948

132
375
535
305
994
339
581
261
402
14
3,938

123
443
490
266
792
220
442
234
420
17
3,447

120
434
491
267
852
228
479
251
432
16
3,571

137
506
555
302
965
271
578
285
478
17
4,092

119
425
481
261
804
213
450
241
442
17
3,453

123
435
497
268
789
216
447
237
425
18
3,454

119
425
492
265
868
228
501
251
437
17
3,603

138
503
563
307
980
270
593
287
487
17
4,146

121
431
486
266
822
215
460
248
447
18
3,514

128
452
505
272
816
219
448
240
430
17
3,527

121
434
504
272
872
225
498
258
445
17
3,647

139
503
556
308
995
272
592
293
495
18
4,171

123
436
497
270
846
217
467
252
452
18
3,579

125
452
504
274
853
233
487
253
443
17
3,642

125
449
509
276
865
232
500
256
449
17
3,680

128
457
516
280
883
233
501
261
456
17
3,732

76
178
523
222
360
336
397
195
214
13
2,514

77
186
544
235
397
334
432
209
228
14
2,655

83
192
551
245
406
334
464
232
245
14
2,765

76
181
534
233
379
334
421
207
229
14
2,607

75
195
539
233
377
343
420
204
221
14
2,620

76
189
533
234
401
324
443
213
232
14
2,657

81
195
549
247
406
336
472
239
251
14
2,789

76
184
537
239
382
346
433
212
229
14
2,652

76
187
548
239
385
354
432
207
224
13
2,667

78
192
555
245
408
351
460
226
234
14
2,762

80
198
563
257
414
354
477
242
252
14
2,850

77
186
540
246
386
358
437
215
226
14
2,686

78
184
538
234
385
334
429
211
229
14
2,636

77
190
539
238
392
337
442
217
233
14
2,680

78
191
552
247
398
354
451
223
234
14
2,741

342
1,027
1,594
825
2,286
960
1,433
672
1,061
45
10,246

312
957
1,492
752
2,130
854
1,425
687
1,008
43
9,660

371
1,152
1,746
897
2,606
1,032
1,813
842
1,117
44
11,620

318
952
1,498
755
2,078
842
1,338
673
1,063
45
9,562

345
1,047
1,614
832
2,211
932
1,441
688
1,089
46
10,247

311
955
1,483
755
2,170
847
1,503
689
1,021
44
9,779

366
1,135
1,739
911
2,554
1,010
1,857
838
1,136
45
11,592

322
965
1,512
776
2,087
849
1,368
693
1,076
46
9,694

351
1,060
1,638
845
2,274
947
1,442
700
1,101
46
10,404

317
968
1,519
775
2,146
863
1,469
717
1,036
44
9,854

364
1,131
1,728
915
2,568
1,024
1,832
853
1,153
46
11,614

326
979
1,531
791
2,126
872
1,392
707
1,085
47
9,856

336
1,022
1,583
808
2,275
922
1,503
719
1,063
45
10,274

336
1,026
1,587
819
2,256
909
1,543
727
1,081
45
10,330

339
1,035
1,604
832
2,279
927
1,534
744
1,094
46
10,434

- = no data available
(a) Total retail sales to all sectors includes residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sector sales.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Retail Sales represents total retail electricity sales by electric utilities and power marketers.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7c. U.S. Regional Electricity Prices (Cents per Kilowatthour)


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
1st
Residential Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............
Commercial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............
Industrial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............
All Sectors (a)
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

16.56
14.82
10.50
8.33
10.46
8.81
10.28
9.71
12.03
10.88

16.60
16.16
11.88
10.08
11.31
9.90
11.00
10.83
12.47
11.90

16.46
16.65
11.82
10.61
11.42
10.02
10.79
11.22
13.37
12.02

16.43
15.39
11.38
9.45
10.94
10.05
10.46
9.97
12.20
11.50

15.99
15.20
11.01
9.06
10.86
9.77
10.08
9.76
12.02
11.24

16.38
16.24
12.03
10.48
11.53
10.41
10.91
10.84
12.36
12.03

16.62
17.13
12.10
10.81
11.87
10.44
11.09
11.31
13.51
12.34

16.57
15.54
11.57
9.51
11.41
10.30
10.55
10.31
11.93
11.71

16.74
15.20
10.99
8.95
10.81
9.56
10.33
9.95
11.86
11.26

17.00
16.58
12.21
10.49
11.60
10.48
11.05
11.07
12.57
12.21

16.89
17.56
12.25
10.95
11.93
10.49
11.13
11.50
13.90
12.51

16.82
15.97
11.72
9.66
11.50
10.38
10.63
10.49
12.28
11.89

16.51
15.79
11.39
9.61
11.03
9.66
10.64
10.50
12.51
11.58

16.38
16.06
11.68
9.98
11.43
10.22
10.70
10.61
12.45
11.85

16.86
16.34
11.78
10.01
11.47
10.21
10.82
10.80
12.64
11.97

15.27
13.23
9.17
7.08
9.13
8.86
8.95
8.20
10.78
9.87

14.71
13.93
9.51
7.93
9.33
9.33
8.80
9.04
12.20
10.30

15.33
14.60
9.59
8.60
9.42
9.54
8.74
9.25
14.05
10.71

14.46
13.43
9.28
7.58
9.35
9.75
8.53
8.40
11.40
10.06

14.41
13.23
9.29
7.60
9.45
9.67
8.57
8.32
10.97
10.01

14.82
13.72
9.60
8.42
9.58
9.81
8.72
9.01
12.18
10.40

14.75
14.87
9.67
8.76
9.79
9.86
8.94
9.28
13.93
10.88

14.45
13.60
9.39
7.64
9.82
9.76
8.74
8.79
11.71
10.31

15.25
13.58
9.22
7.54
9.57
9.47
9.17
8.46
11.06
10.20

15.09
14.09
9.60
8.45
9.67
10.00
9.03
9.14
12.49
10.58

15.24
15.24
9.75
8.98
9.93
10.04
9.10
9.39
14.35
11.09

14.80
13.73
9.48
7.75
9.90
9.94
8.79
8.80
11.81
10.41

14.96
13.83
9.40
7.83
9.31
9.38
8.75
8.76
12.17
10.26

14.61
13.90
9.50
8.13
9.67
9.78
8.76
8.87
12.26
10.42

15.10
14.19
9.52
8.21
9.78
9.87
9.02
8.97
12.49
10.59

12.33
8.50
6.34
5.43
6.45
5.31
6.08
5.69
7.29
6.53

12.91
8.52
6.48
5.74
6.53
5.85
6.00
6.17
7.84
6.75

12.78
8.71
6.71
6.45
7.00
6.33
6.14
6.87
8.73
7.17

12.62
8.30
6.52
5.67
6.54
5.97
5.80
5.65
7.68
6.67

12.68
8.62
6.41
5.75
6.53
5.85
5.77
5.60
7.43
6.68

11.64
8.69
6.50
6.18
6.83
6.20
5.92
6.01
7.70
6.85

12.78
9.18
7.03
6.81
7.52
6.64
6.23
6.59
8.65
7.41

12.72
8.38
6.67
5.88
6.92
6.11
5.90
5.78
7.80
6.84

12.83
8.46
6.48
5.71
6.67
5.87
5.99
5.78
7.39
6.70

11.67
8.78
6.54
6.18
6.79
6.16
5.96
6.22
7.83
6.87

12.64
9.00
6.87
6.72
7.34
6.53
6.15
6.85
8.79
7.33

12.71
8.39
6.58
5.82
6.94
6.12
5.87
5.96
7.99
6.85

12.66
8.51
6.51
5.84
6.64
5.87
6.01
6.13
7.91
6.79

12.46
8.72
6.66
6.16
6.96
6.20
5.96
6.02
7.92
6.95

12.46
8.66
6.62
6.12
6.94
6.17
6.00
6.23
8.02
6.94

15.12
13.01
8.72
7.14
9.37
7.60
8.71
8.02
10.57
9.47

14.92
13.63
9.13
7.96
9.63
8.16
8.74
8.76
11.30
9.89

15.19
14.40
9.50
8.80
9.99
8.70
8.95
9.35
12.64
10.40

14.74
13.13
8.97
7.64
9.52
8.36
8.35
8.08
10.89
9.66

14.66
13.13
8.94
7.66
9.62
8.30
8.35
8.03
10.76
9.66

14.59
13.58
9.23
8.42
9.88
8.64
8.71
8.68
11.21
10.02

15.03
14.73
9.71
9.03
10.38
9.02
9.17
9.27
12.60
10.63

14.82
13.27
9.12
7.75
9.96
8.45
8.47
8.38
10.95
9.87

15.32
13.27
8.93
7.58
9.67
8.16
8.67
8.20
10.63
9.73

14.92
13.86
9.27
8.41
9.90
8.60
8.77
8.85
11.46
10.11

15.29
14.97
9.69
9.10
10.42
9.00
9.18
9.46
12.96
10.73

15.05
13.47
9.17
7.81
10.04
8.52
8.52
8.51
11.18
9.97

15.00
13.58
9.09
7.91
9.64
8.21
8.71
8.60
11.37
9.88

14.79
13.72
9.27
8.24
9.98
8.62
8.71
8.63
11.40
10.07

15.15
13.92
9.27
8.25
10.02
8.58
8.81
8.79
11.58
10.16

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Volume-weighted average of retail prices to residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric
Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7d. U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel and Sector (Billion Kilowatthours per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
Electric Power Sector (a)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Other Gases ................................
Petroleum ....................................
Residual Fuel Oil .......................
Distillate Fuel Oil .......................
Petroleum Coke ........................
Other Petroleum .......................
Nuclear ........................................
Pumped Storage Hydroelectric .....
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Renewables:
Conventional Hydroelectric ........
Geothermal ...............................
Solar .........................................
Wind .........................................
Wood and Wood Waste ............
Other Renewables ....................
Subtotal Electric Power Sector .....
Commercial Sector (c)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Petroleum ....................................
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Renewables (d) ............................
Subtotal Commercial Sector .........
Industrial Sector (c)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Other Gases ................................
Petroleum ....................................
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Renewables:
Conventional Hydroelectric ........
Wood and Wood Waste ............
Other Renewables (e) ...............
Subtotal Industrial Sector .............
Total All Sectors ...........................

2011
2nd

2012
3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

5.172
2.135
0.009
0.084
0.029
0.015
0.035
0.005
2.230
-0.016
0.020

4.443
2.504
0.010
0.086
0.035
0.014
0.034
0.003
2.181
-0.015
0.021

5.174
3.536
0.010
0.101
0.047
0.014
0.036
0.003
2.321
-0.019
0.021

4.753
2.340
0.009
0.080
0.027
0.016
0.034
0.003
2.152
-0.015
0.020

5.017
2.461
0.008
0.094
0.039
0.020
0.033
0.002
2.211
-0.011
0.019

4.850
2.547
0.008
0.085
0.034
0.016
0.033
0.003
2.136
-0.015
0.019

4.886
2.631
0.009
0.088
0.034
0.015
0.035
0.004
2.221
-0.016
0.021

0.611
0.045
0.002
0.321
0.030
0.046
10.315

0.754
0.045
0.003
0.354
0.032
0.047
10.870

0.865
0.044
0.010
0.403
0.029
0.050
10.632

0.667
0.046
0.010
0.307
0.034
0.053
12.261

0.643
0.045
0.003
0.376
0.033
0.049
10.489

0.700
0.043
0.004
0.259
0.032
0.044
10.880

0.852
0.045
0.005
0.321
0.029
0.046
10.929

0.732
0.045
0.006
0.360
0.032
0.050
11.065

0.003
0.014
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.024

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.022

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.022

0.003
0.011
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.022

0.003
0.014
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.024

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.022

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.023

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.022

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.022

0.048
0.211
0.021
0.006
0.007

0.054
0.230
0.025
0.006
0.002

0.050
0.216
0.023
0.006
0.002

0.052
0.227
0.024
0.006
0.002

0.051
0.221
0.023
0.006
0.002

0.055
0.237
0.026
0.006
0.002

0.051
0.220
0.024
0.006
0.002

0.051
0.216
0.023
0.006
0.010

0.050
0.217
0.023
0.006
0.005

0.052
0.226
0.024
0.006
0.002

0.006
0.067
0.002
0.370
10.941

0.003
0.075
0.002
0.406
12.622

0.004
0.073
0.002
0.384
10.721

0.006
0.072
0.002
0.399
11.291

0.006
0.070
0.002
0.389
11.043

0.003
0.077
0.002
0.418
12.703

0.004
0.075
0.002
0.392
10.903

0.004
0.072
0.002
0.385
11.288

0.005
0.070
0.002
0.382
11.333

0.005
0.074
0.002
0.400
11.487

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5.181
2.011
0.009
0.094
0.034
0.023
0.034
0.003
2.249
-0.008
0.017

4.750
2.306
0.009
0.095
0.042
0.016
0.034
0.002
2.116
-0.008
0.020

5.450
3.329
0.008
0.111
0.054
0.019
0.035
0.002
2.314
-0.015
0.020

4.688
2.188
0.006
0.078
0.027
0.020
0.028
0.003
2.164
-0.014
0.019

4.887
2.059
0.008
0.082
0.025
0.017
0.037
0.003
2.258
-0.011
0.017

4.511
2.418
0.009
0.081
0.034
0.016
0.029
0.002
1.944
-0.015
0.019

5.192
3.428
0.009
0.103
0.050
0.015
0.034
0.003
2.248
-0.018
0.020

4.806
2.273
0.008
0.075
0.025
0.014
0.033
0.003
2.093
-0.015
0.020

0.697
0.044
0.001
0.235
0.032
0.042
10.605

0.797
0.043
0.005
0.291
0.029
0.045
10.497

0.658
0.042
0.005
0.221
0.034
0.044
12.221

0.647
0.043
0.002
0.290
0.030
0.045
10.187

0.900
0.046
0.003
0.329
0.030
0.042
10.650

1.081
0.045
0.007
0.374
0.025
0.049
10.549

0.818
0.045
0.007
0.261
0.031
0.048
12.192

0.003
0.011
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.022

0.003
0.011
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.022

0.003
0.014
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.025

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.022

0.003
0.011
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.022

0.002
0.011
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.022

0.052
0.216
0.022
0.007
0.009

0.047
0.211
0.023
0.007
0.010

0.055
0.228
0.024
0.007
0.011

0.048
0.211
0.022
0.006
0.009

0.049
0.209
0.022
0.006
0.008

0.006
0.072
0.002
0.384
11.011

0.005
0.072
0.002
0.377
10.897

0.003
0.075
0.002
0.404
12.650

0.004
0.072
0.002
0.374
10.583

0.005
0.067
0.002
0.368
11.039

1st

- = no data available
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) "Other" includes non-biogenic municipal solid waste, batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, tires and miscellaneous technologies.
(c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants.
(d) "Renewables" in commercial sector includes wood, black liquor, other wood waste, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass,
geothermal, solar thermal, photovoltaic energy and wind.
(e) "Other Renewables" in industrial sector includes black liquor, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass, geothermal, solar thermal,
photovoltaic energy and wind.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Values of 0.000 may indicate positive levels of generation that are less than 0.0005 billion kilowatthours per day.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual ,
DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7e. U.S. Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation by Sector


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
1st
Electric Power Sector (a)
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............
Residual Fuel Oil (mmb/d) .....
Distillate Fuel Oil (mmb/d) .....
Petroleum Coke (mmst/d) ......
Other Petroleum (mmb/d) ......
Commercial Sector (c)
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............
Industrial Sector (c)
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............
Total All Sectors
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............

2nd

2011

2012

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

2.72
15.48
0.17
0.06
0.04
0.07
0.01

2.51
18.25
0.17
0.07
0.03
0.07
0.00

2.90
26.72
0.20
0.09
0.04
0.07
0.00

2.51
16.78
0.14
0.04
0.04
0.05
0.01

2.60
15.83
0.15
0.04
0.03
0.07
0.00

2.42
19.18
0.15
0.06
0.03
0.05
0.00

2.78
27.23
0.19
0.09
0.03
0.07
0.01

2.54
17.44
0.14
0.04
0.03
0.06
0.01

2.71
16.16
0.15
0.05
0.03
0.07
0.01

2.33
19.56
0.16
0.06
0.03
0.07
0.01

2.74
27.80
0.18
0.08
0.03
0.07
0.01

2.50
17.78
0.14
0.04
0.03
0.06
0.01

2.66
19.33
0.17
0.07
0.04
0.06
0.00

2.59
19.94
0.16
0.06
0.03
0.06
0.00

2.57
20.34
0.16
0.06
0.03
0.07
0.01

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.11
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.11
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.11
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.02
1.48
0.01

0.02
1.44
0.01

0.02
1.57
0.01

0.02
1.44
0.01

0.02
1.48
0.01

0.02
1.46
0.01

0.02
1.58
0.01

0.02
1.47
0.01

0.02
1.61
0.01

0.02
1.52
0.01

0.02
1.63
0.01

0.02
1.50
0.01

0.02
1.48
0.01

0.02
1.50
0.01

0.02
1.56
0.01

2.75
17.05
0.18

2.53
19.79
0.18

2.93
28.40
0.21

2.53
18.32
0.15

2.62
17.40
0.16

2.44
20.73
0.15

2.80
28.91
0.20

2.57
19.01
0.14

2.73
17.87
0.16

2.36
21.17
0.16

2.76
29.54
0.19

2.52
19.37
0.15

2.68
20.91
0.18

2.61
21.54
0.16

2.59
22.00
0.17

End-of-period Fuel Inventories Held by Electric Power Sector


Coal (mmst) ..............................
177.8
181.1
162.8
Residual Fuel Oil (mmb) ............
18.7
17.4
17.4
Distillate Fuel Oil (mmb) ............
17.3
17.2
17.0
Petroleum Coke (mmb) .............
5.8
5.5
6.1

175.2
16.7
17.1
5.4

167.0
15.6
16.8
2.8

172.0
15.6
16.6
3.1

158.3
14.4
16.8
3.3

162.5
12.8
17.0
3.1

156.4
13.2
16.5
3.2

165.9
15.0
16.5
3.1

152.9
14.6
16.7
3.1

157.2
14.0
16.9
3.0

175.2
16.7
17.1
5.4

162.5
12.8
17.0
3.1

157.2
14.0
16.9
3.0

- = no data available
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) Petroleum category may include petroleum coke, which is converted from short tons to barrels by multiplying by 5.
(c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Physical Units: mmst/d = million short tons per day; mmb/d = million barrels per day; bcf/d = billion cubic feet per day; mmb = million barrels.
Values of 0.00 may indicate positive levels of fuel consumption that are less than 0.005 units per day.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 8. U.S. Renewable Energy Supply and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
1st
Supply
Hydroelectric Power (a) ...............
Geothermal .................................
Solar .............................................
Wind .............................................
Wood ............................................
Ethanol (b) .....................................
Biodiesel (b) ..................................
Other Renewables .......................
Total ..........................................
Consumption
Electric Power Sector
Hydroelectric Power (a) ............
Geothermal ..............................
Solar ..........................................
Wind ..........................................
Wood .........................................
Other Renewables ....................
Subtotal ..................................
Industrial Sector
Hydroelectric Power (a) ............
Geothermal ..............................
Wood and Wood Waste ...........
Other Renewables ....................
Subtotal ..................................
Commercial Sector
Hydroelectric Power (a) ............
Geothermal ..............................
Wood and Wood Waste ...........
Other Renewables ....................
Subtotal ..................................
Residential Sector
Geothermal ..............................
Biomass .....................................
Solar ..........................................
Subtotal ..................................
Transportation Sector
Ethanol (b) ..................................
Biodiesel (b) ...............................
Total Consumption ........................

2nd

2011
3rd

2012

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

0.618
0.053
0.025
0.208
0.490
0.270
0.011
0.110
1.786

0.713
0.053
0.029
0.261
0.491
0.275
0.012
0.115
1.949

0.593
0.053
0.029
0.200
0.508
0.284
0.010
0.114
1.792

0.585
0.054
0.026
0.263
0.497
0.298
0.007
0.115
1.844

0.795
0.055
0.026
0.292
0.478
0.293
0.014
0.111
2.065

0.972
0.084
0.030
0.335
0.474
0.289
0.024
0.121
2.325

0.744
0.102
0.030
0.237
0.515
0.289
0.026
0.124
2.070

0.558
0.101
0.026
0.291
0.508
0.293
0.027
0.118
1.922

0.682
0.101
0.027
0.317
0.503
0.291
0.026
0.118
2.066

0.781
0.099
0.033
0.362
0.487
0.292
0.026
0.125
2.206

0.608
0.103
0.033
0.278
0.531
0.296
0.027
0.132
2.009

0.587
0.103
0.027
0.341
0.520
0.296
0.028
0.124
2.025

2.509
0.212
0.109
0.933
1.986
1.128
0.039
0.454
7.371

3.069
0.343
0.113
1.155
1.976
1.164
0.091
0.473
8.382

2.658
0.406
0.119
1.298
2.042
1.175
0.107
0.500
8.305

0.618
0.038
0.001
0.208
0.048
0.060
0.975

0.715
0.038
0.005
0.261
0.044
0.064
1.127

0.596
0.038
0.005
0.200
0.049
0.063
0.952

0.587
0.039
0.002
0.263
0.046
0.064
1.001

0.798
0.041
0.003
0.292
0.045
0.061
1.239

0.970
0.070
0.006
0.335
0.037
0.070
1.480

0.741
0.087
0.006
0.237
0.047
0.070
1.188

0.554
0.086
0.002
0.291
0.046
0.067
1.046

0.676
0.087
0.003
0.317
0.049
0.068
1.199

0.775
0.085
0.009
0.362
0.044
0.072
1.346

0.605
0.088
0.009
0.278
0.052
0.076
1.108

0.583
0.088
0.003
0.341
0.050
0.072
1.136

2.516
0.153
0.013
0.933
0.189
0.252
4.055

3.063
0.284
0.017
1.155
0.175
0.267
4.953

2.639
0.347
0.023
1.298
0.194
0.288
4.790

0.005
0.001
0.321
0.041
0.372

0.005
0.001
0.324
0.042
0.376

0.003
0.001
0.335
0.042
0.385

0.003
0.001
0.326
0.042
0.378

0.005
0.001
0.312
0.041
0.363

0.005
0.001
0.315
0.043
0.368

0.003
0.001
0.346
0.045
0.399

0.004
0.001
0.340
0.044
0.393

0.005
0.001
0.332
0.042
0.385

0.006
0.001
0.322
0.045
0.378

0.003
0.001
0.357
0.047
0.412

0.004
0.001
0.348
0.044
0.401

0.016
0.004
1.307
0.168
1.511

0.016
0.004
1.313
0.173
1.522

0.018
0.004
1.359
0.179
1.576

0.000
0.005
0.017
0.008
0.031

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.009
0.033

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032

0.000
0.005
0.017
0.008
0.031

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.029

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.009
0.027

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.026

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.026

0.000
0.005
0.017
0.008
0.026

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.009
0.027

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.027

0.001
0.019
0.070
0.034
0.127

0.001
0.018
0.071
0.033
0.114

0.001
0.018
0.071
0.033
0.106

0.009
0.104
0.024
0.136

0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.106
0.024
0.140

0.009
0.106
0.024
0.140

0.009
0.104
0.024
0.136

0.009
0.104
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.104
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.104
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.104
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.104
0.024
0.138

0.037
0.420
0.097
0.554

0.037
0.417
0.096
0.550

0.037
0.418
0.096
0.551

0.251
0.009

0.275
0.011

0.280
0.010

0.284
0.008

0.263
0.015

0.275
0.024

0.274
0.024

0.282
0.025

0.274
0.026

0.285
0.026

0.284
0.027

0.287
0.027

1.091
0.039

1.094
0.088

1.129
0.106

1.770

1.951

1.796

1.843

2.036

2.303

2.054

1.910

2.047

2.199

1.996

2.016

7.360

8.304

8.258

- = no data available
(a) Conventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy.
(b) Fuel ethanol and biodiesel supply represents domestic production only. Fuel ethanol and biodiesel consumption in the transportation sector includes production, stock change, and imports
less exports. Some biodiesel may be consumed in the residential s
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226 and Renewable Energy Annual , DOE/EIA-0603; Petroleum
Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010

2011

2012
2010

Year
2011

2012

14,059

13,248

13,571

13,917

10,506

10,542

10,237

10,375

10,484

1,924

1,972

2,041

1,695

1,798

1,957

15.45

13.18

10.17

12.21

18.12

29.64

12.75

123.5

123.5

123.5

123.6

123.6

123.5

123.5

123.6

131.4

132.0

132.6

133.0

133.5

134.0

129.8

131.3

133.3

89.1

89.6

90.2

90.8

91.2

91.6

92.0

87.8

89.4

91.4

92.6
90.5
103.2
89.7

93.1
90.8
102.9
89.1

94.3
92.5
103.3
89.6

95.0
93.6
103.8
90.0

95.8
94.7
104.3
90.4

96.3
95.3
105.0
90.8

97.1
96.3
105.6
91.5

97.7
97.1
106.2
92.2

90.1
87.3
102.3
89.0

93.8
91.8
103.3
89.6

96.7
95.9
105.3
91.2

87.0
98.0
69.1
85.3
79.1
92.5
87.5

88.0
96.2
67.6
90.4
78.8
95.2
88.4

89.2
95.6
69.0
89.7
78.4
92.7
87.8

90.1
95.8
69.6
90.6
78.9
93.7
88.4

90.8
96.0
69.9
91.4
79.1
94.3
88.8

91.3
96.1
70.5
91.6
79.3
94.6
89.1

92.0
96.3
71.7
91.9
79.7
94.8
89.5

92.9
96.6
73.6
93.3
80.5
95.4
90.4

93.5
96.8
75.3
94.5
81.1
95.7
91.1

86.7
96.5
67.6
83.3
77.0
94.0
86.5

89.5
95.9
69.0
90.5
78.8
94.0
88.3

92.4
96.4
72.7
92.8
80.1
95.1
90.0

2.18

2.19

2.22

2.25

2.26

2.27

2.28

2.28

2.30

2.31

2.18

2.25

2.29

1.83

1.82

1.90

1.99

2.02

2.01

2.03

2.03

2.03

2.04

2.06

1.85

2.01

2.04

2.17

2.26

2.20

2.38

2.74

3.22

2.98

2.93

3.00

3.07

3.11

3.09

2.25

2.96

3.07

110.0

110.5

111.1

111.2

111.7

112.5

113.1

113.2

113.6

113.8

114.3

114.8

110.7

112.6

114.1

7,663

8,555

8,523

8,127

7,656

8,421

8,477

8,094

7,777

8,530

8,506

8,117

8,219

8,164

8,233

491

530

546

526

519

545

547

536

534

557

560

548

523

537

550

293

330

341

323

307

341

348

328

315

352

354

334

322

331

339

266.4

282.0

282.2

282.2

298.2

309.7

316.3

327.3

327.4

321.0

311.9

313.5

278.2

312.9

318.5

0.234

0.253

0.245

0.237

0.257

0.261

0.263

0.248

0.261

0.272

0.262

0.249

0.242

0.257

0.261

Carbon Dioxide (CO 2) Emissions (million metric tons)


Petroleum ......................................................
569
586
Natural Gas ...................................................
401
263
Coal ...............................................................
502
471
Total Fossil Fuels ..........................................
1,472
1,320

600
283
543
1,427

596
338
474
1,408

575
403
483
1,461

581
274
453
1,309

593
287
524
1,405

590
349
484
1,423

582
407
508
1,497

583
272
443
1,298

594
292
517
1,403

593
353
476
1,422

2,351
1,285
1,990
5,627

2,339
1,314
1,945
5,597

2,352
1,324
1,944
5,621

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

(billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) .......

13,139

13,195

13,279

13,381

13,444

13,508

13,618

13,713

Real Disposable Personal Income


(billion chained 2005 Dollars - SAAR) .......

10,113

10,252

10,277

10,305

10,328

10,332

10,390

1,631

1,703

1,709

1,737

1,743

1,765

21.04

-3.40

29.63

25.20

37.74

123.5

123.6

123.6

123.5

129.3

130.0

129.9

87.3

87.6

1st

2nd

3rd

13,793

13,865

13,952

10,450

10,410

10,478

1,818

1,867

1,891

36.39

23.51

20.90

123.5

123.5

123.5

130.1

130.5

131.1

87.9

88.2

88.6

89.5
86.9
101.4
89.5

91.0
88.1
103.3
88.8

91.7
89.0
103.9
89.1

85.5

86.3
96.9
68.0
84.1
74.7
93.2
86.2

86.5
98.0
68.8
82.1
78.1
89.5
86.6

2.18

2.17

1.85

4th

Macroeconomic
Real Gross Domestic Product

Real Fixed Investment


(billion chained 2005 dollars-SAAR) .........
Business Inventory Change
(billion chained 2005 dollars-SAAR) .........
Housing Stock
(millions) ......................................................
Non-Farm Employment
(millions) .....................................................
Commercial Employment
(millions) .....................................................

Industrial Production Indices (Index, 2007=100)


Total Industrial Production ............................
88.0
Manufacturing ................................................
85.0
Food .............................................................
100.6
Paper ............................................................
88.7
Chemicals .....................................................
86.9
Petroleum ......................................................
92.9
Stone, Clay, Glass .......................................
64.6
Primary Metals ..............................................
81.7
Resins and Synthetic Products .....................
76.0
Agricultural Chemicals ..................................
100.9
Natural Gas-weighted (a) .............................
Price Indexes
Consumer Price Index (all urban consumers)
(index, 1982-1984=1.00) .............................
Producer Price Index: All Commodities
(index, 1982=1.00) ......................................
Producer Price Index: Petroleum
(index, 1982=1.00) ......................................
GDP Implicit Price Deflator
(index, 2005=100) .......................................
Miscellaneous
Vehicle Miles Traveled (b)
(million miles/day) .......................................
Air Travel Capacity
(Available ton-miles/day, thousands) .........
Aircraft Utilization
(Revenue ton-miles/day, thousands) ..........
Airline Ticket Price Index
(index, 1982-1984=100) ..............................
Raw Steel Production
(million short tons per day) .........................

- = no data available
(a) Natural gas share weights of individual sector indices based on EIAManufacturing Energy Consumption Survey, 2002.
(b) Total highway travel includes gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17; Federal Highway Administration;
and Federal Aviation Administration.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy and Regional Economic Information and simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Real Gross State Product (Billion $2005)
New England ...............
717
720
726
730
Middle Atlantic .............
1,937
1,944
1,952
1,966
E. N. Central ...............
1,820
1,828
1,836
1,845
W. N. Central ..............
861
865
871
877
S. Atlantic ....................
2,401
2,410
2,426
2,444
E. S. Central ................
616
617
620
625
W. S. Central ..............
1,509
1,520
1,534
1,550
Mountain .....................
875
878
885
892
Pacific .........................
2,344
2,353
2,368
2,389
Industrial Output, Manufacturing (Index, Year 2007=100)
New England ...............
87.2
89.1
90.4
91.4
Middle Atlantic .............
85.3
87.0
88.1
89.0
E. N. Central ...............
81.4
83.9
85.2
85.7
W. N. Central ..............
87.7
90.0
91.5
92.3
S. Atlantic ....................
82.2
83.6
84.5
84.9
E. S. Central ................
82.1
84.0
85.1
85.6
W. S. Central ..............
88.2
90.7
92.6
93.8
Mountain .....................
83.9
85.8
87.0
88.1
Pacific .........................
86.8
88.0
88.7
89.7
Real Personal Income (Billion $2005)
New England ...............
630
643
644
646
Middle Atlantic .............
1,697
1,726
1,727
1,733
E. N. Central ...............
1,571
1,594
1,603
1,606
W. N. Central ..............
720
727
733
738
S. Atlantic ....................
2,092
2,118
2,128
2,134
E. S. Central ................
552
561
564
566
W. S. Central ..............
1,238
1,256
1,266
1,275
Mountain .....................
722
730
733
736
Pacific .........................
1,905
1,924
1,930
1,940
Households (Thousands)
New England ...............
5,498
5,498
5,498
5,498
Middle Atlantic .............
15,217
15,210
15,224
15,231
E. N. Central ...............
17,732
17,725
17,710
17,697
W. N. Central ..............
8,065
8,068
8,077
8,085
S. Atlantic ....................
22,256
22,294
22,315
22,342
E. S. Central ................
7,100
7,107
7,113
7,117
W. S. Central ..............
12,841
12,871
12,896
12,921
Mountain .....................
7,926
7,942
7,961
7,980
Pacific .........................
16,950
16,969
16,997
17,033
Total Non-farm Employment (Millions)
New England ...............
6.7
6.7
6.8
6.8
Middle Atlantic .............
17.9
18.0
17.9
17.9
E. N. Central ...............
19.9
20.0
20.0
20.0
W. N. Central ..............
9.8
9.8
9.8
9.8
S. Atlantic ....................
24.6
24.8
24.8
24.8
E. S. Central ................
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
W. S. Central ..............
14.8
14.9
14.9
15.0
Mountain .....................
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.0
Pacific .........................
19.1
19.2
19.1
19.2

2011

2012
2010

Year
2011

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

733
1,975
1,853
880
2,456
628
1,560
897
2,402

736
1,984
1,858
884
2,469
630
1,570
901
2,413

742
1,999
1,871
890
2,491
635
1,585
908
2,434

746
2,013
1,885
896
2,509
640
1,597
914
2,451

750
2,022
1,895
901
2,525
644
1,609
920
2,463

753
2,032
1,904
905
2,540
647
1,621
925
2,475

756
2,043
1,914
911
2,558
652
1,633
932
2,491

761
2,057
1,925
916
2,580
657
1,647
939
2,513

723
1,950
1,832
868
2,420
620
1,528
882
2,363

739
1,993
1,867
888
2,481
633
1,578
905
2,425

755
2,038
1,910
908
2,551
650
1,627
929
2,485

92.9
90.5
87.2
94.0
86.2
87.1
95.3
90.0
91.4

93.0
90.7
87.5
94.3
86.4
87.6
95.8
90.3
91.9

94.5
92.2
88.9
95.9
87.8
89.4
97.6
92.1
93.7

95.5
93.1
89.8
96.9
88.7
90.7
99.0
93.3
95.0

96.4
93.9
90.8
98.0
89.7
92.1
100.3
94.4
96.2

96.6
94.4
91.6
98.8
90.2
93.2
101.1
94.9
96.6

97.3
95.3
92.7
99.9
91.2
94.6
102.3
95.9
97.4

97.7
96.0
93.5
100.9
92.0
95.7
103.1
96.6
98.0

89.5
87.4
84.0
90.4
83.8
84.2
91.3
86.2
88.3

94.0
91.6
88.3
95.2
87.3
88.7
96.9
91.4
93.0

97.0
94.9
92.2
99.4
90.8
93.9
101.7
95.5
97.1

650
1,747
1,619
746
2,153
571
1,288
742
1,957

650
1,749
1,618
748
2,157
571
1,292
744
1,961

654
1,761
1,625
752
2,173
575
1,303
749
1,974

658
1,775
1,631
754
2,189
578
1,314
755
1,988

657
1,772
1,625
753
2,190
577
1,314
755
1,986

661
1,787
1,636
758
2,207
582
1,325
762
2,001

663
1,796
1,642
761
2,218
585
1,334
766
2,011

666
1,807
1,650
764
2,232
588
1,343
772
2,024

641
1,721
1,593
729
2,118
561
1,259
730
1,924

653
1,758
1,623
750
2,168
574
1,299
748
1,970

662
1,791
1,638
759
2,212
583
1,329
764
2,005

5,497
15,240
17,687
8,094
22,374
7,123
12,950
7,998
17,056

5,493
15,240
17,671
8,099
22,402
7,125
12,975
8,015
17,074

5,494
15,250
17,672
8,112
22,447
7,133
13,015
8,037
17,106

5,499
15,266
17,679
8,130
22,504
7,150
13,065
8,067
17,150

5,507
15,282
17,704
8,152
22,575
7,168
13,123
8,106
17,206

5,517
15,303
17,737
8,177
22,661
7,190
13,183
8,146
17,269

5,528
15,325
17,771
8,201
22,754
7,213
13,245
8,187
17,333

5,540
15,348
17,810
8,227
22,855
7,238
13,312
8,231
17,396

5,498
15,231
17,697
8,085
22,342
7,117
12,921
7,980
17,033

5,499
15,266
17,679
8,130
22,504
7,150
13,065
8,067
17,150

5,540
15,348
17,810
8,227
22,855
7,238
13,312
8,231
17,396

6.8
18.0
20.0
9.9
24.8
7.4
15.1
9.1
19.3

6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
24.9
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.3

6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
25.0
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.4

6.8
18.2
20.2
10.0
25.1
7.5
15.3
9.2
19.5

6.9
18.3
20.3
10.0
25.3
7.5
15.4
9.2
19.6

6.9
18.3
20.3
10.1
25.4
7.5
15.5
9.3
19.6

6.9
18.4
20.4
10.1
25.5
7.5
15.5
9.3
19.7

6.9
18.4
20.4
10.1
25.6
7.6
15.6
9.4
19.8

6.7
17.9
20.0
9.8
24.7
7.3
14.9
9.0
19.2

6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
25.0
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.4

6.9
18.4
20.4
10.1
25.4
7.5
15.5
9.3
19.7

- = no data available
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.

2012

Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2011

2010
1st

2nd

Heating Degree-days
New England ................
2,948
634
Middle Atlantic ..............
2,805
477
E. N. Central .................
3,217
523
W. N. Central ................
3,475
536
South Atlantic ...............
1,804
144
E. S. Central .................
2,297
169
W. S. Central ................
1,608
79
Mountain .......................
2,313
780
Pacific ...........................
1,312
678
U.S. Average ............
2,311
422
Heating Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a)
New England ................
3,219
930
Middle Atlantic ..............
2,968
752
E. N. Central .................
3,227
798
W. N. Central ................
3,326
729
South Atlantic ...............
1,523
247
E. S. Central .................
1,895
299
W. S. Central ................
1,270
112
Mountain .......................
2,321
741
Pacific ...........................
1,419
556
U.S. Average ............
2,242
543
Cooling Degree-days
New England ................
0
129
Middle Atlantic ..............
0
261
E. N. Central .................
0
282
W. N. Central ................
1
320
South Atlantic ...............
34
772
E. S. Central .................
8
679
W. S. Central ................
27
950
Mountain .......................
11
370
Pacific ...........................
7
120
U.S. Average ............
12
445
Cooling Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a)
New England ................
0
81
Middle Atlantic ..............
0
151
E. N. Central .................
1
208
W. N. Central ................
3
270
South Atlantic ...............
113
576
E. S. Central .................
29
469
W. S. Central ................
80
790
Mountain .......................
17
383
Pacific ...........................
10
171
U.S. Average ............
34
353

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

Year
3rd

4th

2010

2011

2012

81
57
99
142
7
11
2
116
93
62

2,280
2,116
2,369
2,430
1,264
1,516
833
1,745
1,086
1,665

3,314
3,023
3,306
3,517
1,501
1,866
1,273
2,338
1,481
2,285

846
609
755
769
179
247
101
773
675
517

168
112
138
166
24
32
8
160
109
92

2,252
2,048
2,298
2,505
1,056
1,373
872
1,931
1,146
1,626

3,233
2,971
3,236
3,351
1,526
1,892
1,236
2,336
1,436
2,247

925
746
791
725
245
293
107
730
557
539

187
125
156
183
23
32
9
164
105
99

2,253
2,043
2,294
2,487
1,036
1,353
874
1,919
1,121
1,614

5,942
5,455
6,209
6,583
3,219
3,993
2,521
4,954
3,170
4,460

6,580
5,792
6,497
6,957
2,760
3,518
2,254
5,202
3,411
4,520

6,598
5,885
6,477
6,746
2,830
3,570
2,226
5,149
3,219
4,499

190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101

2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638

3,219
2,968
3,227
3,326
1,523
1,895
1,270
2,321
1,419
2,242

930
752
798
729
247
299
112
741
556
543

190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101

2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638

3,219
2,968
3,227
3,326
1,523
1,895
1,270
2,321
1,419
2,242

930
752
798
729
247
299
112
741
556
543

190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101

2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638

6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524

6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524

6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524

526
730
684
787
1,292
1,256
1,593
991
495
930

0
5
10
15
168
61
179
78
33
68

0
0
0
1
99
9
113
11
2
33

111
216
227
294
789
653
1,091
316
68
432

439
631
654
784
1,169
1,091
1,566
858
507
864

0
5
9
12
210
64
183
68
40
77

0
0
1
3
114
31
86
15
7
36

69
140
198
264
571
464
788
376
150
345

351
515
502
650
1,099
1,012
1,426
861
513
777

0
5
8
12
223
68
186
79
46
82

656
996
976
1,123
2,265
2,005
2,749
1,450
655
1,455

550
852
890
1,091
2,267
1,817
2,953
1,253
617
1,406

420
660
709
929
2,007
1,575
2,486
1,331
716
1,240

361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775

1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80

0
0
1
3
113
29
80
17
10
34

81
151
208
270
576
469
790
383
171
353

361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775

1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80

0
0
1
3
113
29
80
17
10
34

81
151
208
270
576
469
790
383
171
353

361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775

1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80

443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242

443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242

443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242

- = no data available
(a) 30-year normal represents average over 1971 - 2000, reported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Based on forecasts by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Vous aimerez peut-être aussi