Académique Documents
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August2011
ShortTermEnergyOutlook
August9,2011Release
Highlights
EIAexpectstheU.S.averagerefineracquisitioncostofcrudeoilwillrisefrom
$100perbarrelin2011to$107perbarrelin2012asglobalspareproduction
capacityandinventoriescontinuetodecline.ThisforecastassumesthatU.S.
realgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)growsby2.4percentthisyearand2.6
percentnextyear,whileworldoilconsumptionweightedrealGDPgrowsby
3.4and4.1percentin2011and2012,respectively.Theseassumptionsdonot
fullyreflectrecenteconomicandfinancialdevelopmentsthatpointtowardsa
weakereconomicoutlookandalsocontributedtoasharpdropinworldcrude
oilpricesduringthefirstweekofAugust.Thereisasignificantdownsiderisk
foroilpricesifeconomicandfinancialmarketconcernsbecomemore
widespreadortakehold.
Theregulargradegasolinemonthlyaverageretailpricefellfrom$3.91per
galloninMayto$3.65pergalloninJuly,reflectingthedeclineincrudeoil
pricesfromtheirAprilpeakandarecoveryfromunexpectedrefineryoutages.
Projectedregulargradegasolinepricesaverage$3.58pergallonand$3.44per
galloninthethirdandfourthquartersof2011,respectively,about6centsper
gallonbelowlastmonthsOutlook.
ExtremelyhotweathersettledonmuchoftheNationlastmonth,withU.S.
populationweightedcoolingdegreedays27percenthigherthanthe30year
normaland8percenthigherthanlastyear,whichcontributedtoanincreasein
naturalgasconsumptionforelectricitygenerationcomparedwithJuly2010.
Nevertheless,theestimated246billioncubicfeet(Bcf)increaseinnaturalgas
workinginventoriesduringJuly2011was21Bcfhigherthanduringthesame
monthlastyear.NaturalgasworkinginventoriesendedJuly2011at2.8trillion
cubicfeet(Tcf),about7percent,or194Bcf,belowthe2010endofJulylevel.
EIAexpectsthatworkingnaturalgasinventorieswillbuildstrongly,
approachinglastyearshighlevelsbytheendofthisyearsinventorybuild
season.TheprojectedHenryHubnaturalgasspotpriceaverages$4.24per
millionBritishthermalunits(MMBtu)in2011,$0.15perMMBtulowerthanthe
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2011
1
2010average.EIAexpectsthenaturalgasmarkettobegintighteningin2012,
withtheHenryHubspotpriceincreasingtoanaverageof$4.41perMMBtu.
GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuels
CrudeOilandLiquidFuelsOverview.Globaloildemandgrowth,ledbyChina,is
expectedtooutpacethegrowthinsuppliesfromcountriesoutsideoftheOrganization
ofthePetroleumExportingCountries(OPEC),leadingmarketstorelyonbotha
drawdownofinventoriesandproductionincreasesinOPECcountriestoclosethe
gap.However,OPECcountriesarenotexpectedtomarkedlyincreaseproduction
overthenextfewmonths.
Amongthemajorupsiderisksinthecrudeoilpriceoutlookareadditionalsupply
disruptionsinproducingregionsandhigherthanexpecteddemandgrowth,
particularlyinthecountriesthatarenotmembersoftheOrganizationforEconomic
Cooperationanddevelopment(OECD).Downsiderisksforoilpricesincludethe
rateofglobaleconomicrecoveryandfiscalissuesfacingnationalandsubnational
governments.
GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuelsConsumption.Worldcrudeoilandliquidfuels
consumptiongrewtoarecordhigh86.8millionbarrelsperday(bbl/d)in2010.
Despitecontinuedconcernsoverthepaceoftheglobaleconomicrecovery,
particularlyinOECDcountries,EIAexpectsthatworldconsumptiontogrowby1.4
millionbbl/din2011andby1.6millionbbl/din2012,outpacingaverageglobal
demandgrowthof1.3millionbbl/dfrom19982007,priortotheonsetoftheglobal
economicdownturn(WorldLiquidFuelsConsumptionChart).Countriesoutsidethe
OECDmakeupalmostalloftheprojectedgrowthinconsumptionoverthenexttwo
years,withChinaaccountingforalmosthalfofthisgrowth.Chineseoildemand
continuestoshowstronggrowthdespiteChinesemeasurestocoolitseconomydown,
andEIAsprojectionsforChineseoildemandgrowthhaveagainbeenrevised
upwards.
NonOPECSupply.EIAprojectsthatnonOPECcrudeoilandliquidfuelsproduction
willincreasebyanaverage650thousandbbl/din2011and2012(NonOPECCrude
OilandLiquidFuelsProductionGrowthChart).ThegreatestincreasesinnonOPEC
oilproductionduring2011and2012occurinBrazil,Canada,China,Columbia,
Kazakhstan,andtheUnitedStates,withannualaveragegrowthineachcountryof
over100thousandbbl/d.Atthesametime,EIAexpectsproductiondeclinesthisyear
intheNorthSearegionof140thousandbbl/d,particularlyintheUnitedKingdom,as
wellasdeclinesinYemenof140thousandbbl/dstemmingfromongoingstrife.
OPECSupply.ForecastOPECcrudeoilproductionisunchangedfromlastmonths
Outlook.EIAexpectsOPECcrudeoilproductionwilldeclinebyabout250thousand
bbl/din2011,inlargepartduetothesupplydisruptioninLibya.EIAassumesthat
aboutonehalfofLibyaspredisruptionproductionwillresumebytheendof2012,
contributingtoanoverallincreaseinOPECproductionof500thousandbbl/din2012.
EIAprojectsthatOPECsurpluscrudeoilproductioncapacitywillfallfrom4.0
millionbbl/dattheendof2010to3.5millionbbl/dattheendof2011,followedbya
furtherdeclineto3.3millionbbl/dbytheendof2012(OPECSurplusCrudeOil
ProductionCapacityChart).ForecastOPECnoncrudeliquidsproduction,whichis
notsubjecttoproductiontargets,isexpectedtoincreaseby520thousandbbl/din2011
andby410thousandbbl/din2012.
OECDPetroleumInventories.EIAexpectsthatOECDcommercialinventorieswill
declineinboth2011and2012.Daysofsupply(totalinventoriesdividedbyaverage
dailyconsumption)dropfromarelativelyhigh58daysduringthefourthquarterof
2010to56daysand55daysinthefourthquartersof2011and2012,respectively(Days
ofSupplyofOECDCommercialStocksChart).
CrudeOilPrices.WestTexasIntermediate(WTI)crudeoilspotpricesfellfroman
averageof$110perbarrelinAprilto$97perbarrelinJuly.Duringthefirstweekof
August,worldcrudeoilpricesfellbyabout$10perbarrelreflectingmarketconcerns
aboutworldeconomicandoildemandgrowth.However,EIAstillexpectsoil
marketstotightenasgrowingliquidfuelsdemandinemergingeconomiescontinues
tooutpacesupplygrowthwithcontinuingupwardpressureonoilprices.EIA
expectsthatWTIspotprices,whichaveraged$79perbarrelin2010,willaverage$96
perbarrelin2011and$101perbarrelin2012,whiletheU.S.refineraveragecrudeoil
acquisitioncostisprojectedtoaverage$100and$107perbarrelin2011and2012,
respectively(WestTexasIntermediateCrudeOilPriceChart).
Energypriceforecastsarehighlyuncertain(MarketPricesandUncertaintyReport).
WTIfuturesforOctober2011deliveryoverthe5dayperiodendingAugust4
averaged$93perbarrelandimpliedvolatilityaveraged33percent,establishingthe
lowerandupperlimitsofa95percentconfidenceintervalforthemarkets
expectationsofmonthlyaverageWTIpricesinOctoberof$75perbarreland$116per
barrel,respectively.Lastyearatthistime,WTIforOctober2010deliveryaveraged
$82perbarrelandimpliedvolatilityaveraged30percent.Thecorrespondinglower
andupperlimitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$67perbarreland$100
perbarrel.
U.S.CrudeOilandLiquidFuels
U.S.LiquidFuelsConsumption.Totalconsumptionofliquidfuelsin2010grewby
410thousandbbl/d,or2.2percent,thehighestrateofgrowthsince2004(U.S.Liquid
FuelsConsumptionGrowthChart).Incontrast,projectedtotalU.S.liquidfuels
consumptionin2011fallsby150thousandbbl/d(0.8percent),areversalofthesmall
30thousandbbl/dincreaseprojectedinlastmonthsOutlook.Motorgasolineand
distillatefueleachaccountforaboutonefourthofthechange.
EIAexpectstotalliquidfuelsconsumptiontoincreaseby170thousandbbl/d(0.9
percent)to19.2millionbbl/din2012,withmotorgasolineconsumptionrisingby50
thousandbbl/d(0.6percent)anddistillatefuelconsumptionincreasingby70
thousandbbl/d(1.8percent)aseconomicgrowthimprovesandretailliquidfuels
pricesshowonlysmallincreasesfromthisyear.
U.S.LiquidFuelsSupplyandImports.Domesticcrudeoilproduction,which
increased110thousandbbl/din2010to5.5millionbbl/d,increasesbyafurther100
thousandbbl/din2011and80thousandbbl/din2012(U.S.CrudeOilProduction
Chart),drivenbyproductionresultingfromincreasedoildirecteddrillingactivityin
unconventionalshaleformations.
Liquidfuelnetimports(includingbothcrudeoilandrefinedproducts)fellfrom57
percentoftotalU.S.consumptionin2008to49percentin2010becauseofrising
domesticproductionandthedeclineinconsumptionduringtheeconomicdownturn.
EIAforecaststhatliquidfuelnetimportsshareoftotalconsumptionwilldecline
furtherto47percentin2011beforerisingslightlyto48percentin2012.
U.S.PetroleumProductPrices.EIAforecaststhattheannualaverageregulargrade
gasolineretailpricewillincreasefrom$2.78pergallonin2010to$3.53pergallonin
2011andto$3.64pergallonin2012duetoincreasesinoilprices.Theincreasein
retailpricesreflectsnotonlythehighercostofcrudeoilbutalsochangesinaverage
U.S.refinerygasolinemargin(thedifferencebetweenrefinerywholesalegasoline
pricesandtheaveragecostofcrudeoil)from$0.34pergallonin2010to$0.48per
gallonin2011and$0.43pergallonin2012.
EIAexpectsthatonhighwaydieselfuelretailprices,whichaveraged$2.99pergallon
in2010,willaverage$3.83pergallonin2011and$3.96pergallonin2012.Projected
U.S.refinerydieselfuelmarginsincreasefromanaverageof$0.38pergallonin2010
to$0.62pergallonin2011,thenfalltoanaverageof$0.55pergallonin2012.
U.S.Inventories.CommercialcrudeoilinventorylevelsendedJulyatanestimated
354millionbarrels,down3millionbarrelsfromlastyearbutstill21millionbarrels
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2011
4
higherthanthepreviousfiveyearaverageforthatmonth.Followingthereleaseof
about31millionbarrelsofcrudeoilfromtheU.S.StrategicPetroleumReserve(SPR),
commercialcrudeoilstocksareexpectedtorisetoabout369millionbarrelsbythe
endofSeptember2011,about40millionbarrelshigherthanthepreviousfiveyear
average.Crudeoilstocksaregraduallydrawndowntoneartheirfiveyearaverages
bytheendof2012.
Incontrast,refinedproductinventorieshavemovedclosertotheirfiveyearaverages
sincethebeginningofthisyearandareexpectedtoremainsothroughnextyear.
TotalmotorgasolinestocksattheendofJuly2011wereanestimated215million
barrels,down5millionbarrelsfromlastyearbut4millionbarrelsabovetheprevious
fiveyearaverageforthatmonth.DistillatefueloilstocksendedJulyat153million
barrels,down14millionbarrelsfromlastyearbut7millionbarrelsabovethe
previousfiveyearaverage.Projectedtotalmotorgasolineanddistillateinventoriesin
2012averageabout4millionbarrelsand7millionbarrelshigherthantheprevious
fiveyearaverage,respectively,ashigherthannormalstocklevelsaremaintainedto
supportcontinuingstrongexportmarkets.
NaturalGas
U.S.NaturalGasConsumption.EIAexpectsthattotalnaturalgasconsumptionwill
growby1.8percentto67.4billioncubicfeetperday(Bcf/d)in2011(U.S.Total
NaturalGasConsumptionChart).Forecastindustrialandelectricpower
consumptiongrowthmakeupmostoftheincrease,withexpectedincreasesin2011to
18.4Bcf/d(1.7percent)and21.0Bcf/d(3.7percent),respectively.
ExtremelyhotweatherseeninJulythroughoutmostofthecountrycontributedtoan
increaseinconsumptionofnaturalgasforelectricpowergenerationtomeetincreased
coolingdemand.ThismonthsOutlookraisestheforecastofconsumptionofnatural
gasforpowergenerationforthethirdquarterof2011to28.3Bcf/d(a4.2percent
increasefromthepreviousmonthsforecastof27.2Bcf/d)correspondingtoan11
percentincreaseinprojectedthirdquartercoolingdegreedaysfromlastmonths
forecast.
Projectedtotalconsumptionincreasesslightlyin2012to67.8Bcf/d.Expectedgrowth
intheindustrialandelectricpowersectorsoffsetsprojecteddeclinesinresidentialand
commercialconsumptionduetoanticipatedwarmerwinterweather.
U.S.NaturalGasProductionandImports.Marketednaturalgasproductionis
expectedtoaverage65.5Bcf/din2011,a3.7Bcf/d(5.9percent)increaseover2010.
ThisgrowthiscenteredintheonshoreproductionintheLower48States,whichmore
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2011
5
thanoffsetsprojecteddeclinesintheFederalGulfofMexico.EIAexpectsproduction
willcontinuetogrowin2012,butataslowerpace,increasing0.6Bcf/d(0.9percent)to
anaverageof66.1Bcf/d.
Growingdomesticnaturalgasproductionhasreducedrelianceonnaturalgasimports
andcontributedtoincreasedexports.EIAexpectsthatpipelinegrossimportsof
naturalgaswillfallby4.3percentto8.7Bcf/dduring2011andbyanother3.7percent
to8.4Bcf/din2012.PipelinegrossexportstoMexicoandCanadaareexpectedto
average4.3Bcf/dinboth2011and2012,comparedwithjust3.1Bcfin2010.
ProjectedU.S.importsofliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)fallfrom1.2Bcf/din2010to1.0
Bcf/dinboth2011and2012.BecauseoftheearthquakeinJapanandsubsequent
nucleargenerationoutages,JapansdemandforLNGasareplacementfuelforelectric
powergenerationisexpectedtoincrease,contributingtohigherglobalLNGprices.
U.S.NaturalGasInventories.OnJuly29,2011,workingnaturalgasinstoragestood
at2,758Bcf,186BcfbelowlastyearslevelinlateJuly(U.S.WorkingNaturalGasin
StorageChart).EIAexpectsthatinventories,thoughcurrentlylowerthanlastyear,
willcomeclosetolastyearslevelstowardstheendofthe2011injectionseason
despitethehotweather.Projectedinventoriessurpass3.77TcfattheendofOctober
2011becauseofcurrenthighproductionrates.
U.S.NaturalGasPrices.TheHenryHubspotpriceaveraged$4.42perMMBtuin
July2011,13centslowerthantheJune2011average(HenryHubNaturalGasPrice
Chart).EIAexpectsthattheHenryHubpricewillaverage$4.24perMMBtuin2011
and$4.41perMMBtuin2012.Thoughthe2012averagereflectssometighteningin
supplyasdomesticproductiongrowthslows,priceshaveremainedrelativelylow
overthepastfewyearsasaresultofabundantproduction.
Uncertaintyaboutnaturalgaspricesislowerthisyearcomparedwithlastyearatthis
time(MarketPricesandUncertaintyReport).NaturalgasfuturesforOctober2011
delivery(forthe5dayperiodendingAugust4)averaged$4.11perMMBtu,andthe
averageimpliedvolatilitywas33percent.Thelowerandupperboundsforthe95
percentconfidenceintervalforOctober2011contractsare$3.20perMMBtuand$5.28
perMMBtu.Atthistimelastyear,theOctober2010naturalgasfuturescontract
averaged$4.74perMMBtuandimpliedvolatilityaveraged51percent.The
correspondinglowerandupperlimitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$3.26
perMMBtuand$6.89perMMBtu.
Electricity
U.S.ElectricityConsumption.AccordingtotheNationalOceanicandAtmospheric
Administration,U.S.populationweightedcoolingdegreedaysduringJulywasthe
highestrecordedmonthlyvaluesinceatleastthe1930s.ThisOutlookestimatesthat
retailsalesofelectricitytotheresidentialsectorduringJulywereslightlyhigherthan
therecordsetting5.02billionkilowatthoursperday(kwh/d)consumedduringJulyof
2010.EIAexpectstotalconsumptionofelectricityduring2011togrowby0.5percent
fromlastyearslevelandby1.1percentin2012(U.S.TotalElectricityConsumption
Chart).
U.S.ElectricityGeneration.Hydroelectricgenerationbytheelectricpowersector
averaged946millionkwh/dduringthemonthsofJanuarytoMay2011,whichis252
millionkwh/d(36percent)higherthanthesameperiodlastyear.Mostofthis
increaseinhydropoweroccurredintheWestCensusregion,wherenaturalgaswas
displacedasageneratingfuel,fallingby159millionkwh/dyearoveryear.In
contrast,thelowcostofnaturalgasrelativetoAppalachiancoaldroveuptheuseof
naturalgasasagenerationfuelintheeasternregionsoftheU.S.,increasingby244
millionkwh/dduringthefirstfivemonthsofthisyearcomparedtothesameperiod
in2010.EIAexpectsa3.5percentincreaseinU.S.naturalgasgenerationduring2011
andanincreaseof3.3percentnextyear(U.S.TotalElectricityGenerationbyFuels,all
SectorsChart).
U.S.ElectricityRetailPrices.Theregulatorylaginpassingthroughchangesin
generationcostsshouldleadtoa2.3percentincreaseintheaverageU.S.residential
retailelectricitypriceduring2011,inresponsetotheincreaseinnaturalgasfuelcosts
lastyear.Relativelystablefuelcoststhisyeartranslateintolittlegrowthinretailrates
during2012(U.S.ResidentialElectricityPricesChart).
Coal
U.S.CoalConsumption.EIAexpectsthatcoalconsumptionintheelectricpower
sectorwilldeclinebynearly3percentin2011,astotalelectricitygenerationrisesby
lessthan1percentandgenerationfromnaturalgasincreasesby3.5percent.Forecast
coalconsumptionintheelectricpowersectorremainsrelativelyunchangedin2012.
Recentlyreleaseddataforthefirstquarterof2011showedthatcoalconsumptionat
cokeplantsrosebymorethan20percent.EIAexpectsthatcoalconsumptionatcoke
plantswillincreaseto25millionshorttons(mmst)(17percent)in2011,andstayclose
tothatlevelin2012.EIAforecaststhatcoalconsumedintheothersectors(excluding
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2011
7
electricpowerandcokeplants)willremainatapproximately52mmstin2011and
2012(U.S.CoalConsumptionGrowthChart).
U.S.CoalSupply.EIAforecaststhatcoalproductionwillfallby1.7percentin2011
despiteasignificantincreaseincoalexports.CoalproductionfromtheWestern
regiondeclinedinthefirstsixmonthsof2011by2percentfromthesameperiodthe
yearbefore,whileproductionintheAppalachianandInteriorregionsincreased.EIA
projectsonlya0.3percentincreaseincoalproductionfor2012(U.S.AnnualCoal
ProductionChart).
EIAexpectsthattotalcoalinventoriesfallbyover17mmstin2011,withsecondary
inventoriesdeclininganadditional4.7mmstin2012.Primaryinventoriesareforecast
toincreaseslightly(0.5mmst)in2012(U.S.ElectricPowerSectorCoalStocksChart).
U.S.CoalTrade.U.S.coalexportsrosebyabout50percentduringthefirstquarterof
2011comparedwith2010.Thefirstquarterexportlevelof26.6mmstwasthehighest
quarterlylevelsince1992.Despiteaslowergrowthrate,EIAexpectsU.S.coalexports
toremainelevatedin2011,reachinganannuallevelof98mmst.ForecastU.S.coal
exportsfallbacktoabout83mmstin2012assupplyfromothermajorcoalexporting
countriesrecoversfromdisruptions.EIAalsoexpectsthestrongglobaldemandfor
coaltocontinuetosuppresscoalimports,withimportsprojectedbelow19mmstin
both2011and2012.U.S.coalimportsaveragedabout31mmstannuallyfrom2004
through2009.
U.S.CoalPrices.Averagedeliveredcoalpricestotheelectricpowersectorhaverisen
steadilyoverthelast10years,withanaverageannualincreaseof6.7percent.EIA
expectsthatthistrendwillcontinuein2011,withasignificantportionoftheincrease
attributedtoasharpriseintransportationcosts.Nearlyallcoaltransportationis
poweredbydieselfuel(rail,bargeortruck),andwholesaledieselpricesareforecast
torisebyabout36percentin2011.Thetrendshiftsin2012,withthepowersectorcoal
priceremainingrelativelystable.Theprojectedpowersectordeliveredcoalprice,
whichaveraged$2.26perMMBtuin2010,averagesabout$2.38perMMBtufor2011
and2012.
U.S.CarbonDioxideEmissions
EIAestimatesthatCO2emissionsfromcombustingfossilfuelsincreasedby3.9
percentin2010(U.S.CarbonDioxideEmissionsGrowthChart).Forecastfossilfuel
CO2emissionsfallby0.5percentin2011,asemissionincreasesfromhighernatural
gasconsumptionareoffsetbydeclinesincoalandpetroleumconsumption.Increases
inhydroelectricgenerationandotherrenewableenergysourcesin2011alsohelpto
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2011
8
mitigateemissionsgrowth.Expectedincreasesintotalenergyconsumptionnextyear
coupledwitha0.5percentdeclineinrenewableenergyconsumptioncontributetoa
0.4percentincreaseinfossilfuelCO2emissionsin2012.
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan 2010
Jul 2010
Jan 2011
Jul 2011
Jan 2012
Jul 2012
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending August 4, 2011
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts
4.50
3.50
Forecast
4.00
3.00
Retail Regular Gasoline
3.50
2.50
Crude Oil
3.00
2.00
2.50
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
Jan 2007
0.00
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Crude oil price is refiner average acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes
Jan 2012
4.80
3.50
Forecast
3.00
3.80
2.50
Crude Oil
3.30
2.00
2.80
1.50
2.30
1.00
1.80
0.50
1.30
Jan 2007
0.00
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Crude oil price is refiner average acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes
0
Jan 2010
Jul 2010
Jan 2011
Jul 2011
Jan 2012
Jul 2012
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for 5 trading days ending August 4, 2011
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts
20
15
10
0
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Total consumption
90
7.0
6.0
85
5.0
80
4.0
Annual growth
75
3.0
2.0
70
1.0
65
0.0
-1.0
60
-2.0
55
-3.0
2004
2005
2006
China
2007
2008
2009
United States
2010
2011
2012
Other Countries
Forecast
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
2010
OECD*
2011
Non-OECD Asia
2012
Other
Forecast
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
2010
2011
OPEC countries
North America
North Sea
2012
Russia and Caspian Sea
Latin America
Other Non-OPEC
2011
0.6
2010
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
Norway
Mexico
United Kingdom
Malaysia
Australia
Syria
Gabon
Egypt
Sudan
India
Oman
Azerbaijan
Russia
Vietnam
Kazakhstan
Brazil
Colombia
China
Canada
United States
-0.4
Forecast
80
60
2
40
1
20
0
-20
-1
-40
-2
-60
-3
-80
-4
2008-Q1
-100
2009-Q1
2010-Q1
2011-Q1
2012-Q1
2002
2004
2006
2008
Note: Shaded area represents 2000-2010 average (2.7 million barrels per day)
2010
2012
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Note: Colored band represents the range between the minimum and maximum observed inventories from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010.
Total production
million barrels per day
Forecast
9.0
Total production
8.0
1.4
1.2
7.0
1.0
6.0
0.8
5.0
0.6
Annual change
4.0
0.4
3.0
0.2
2.0
0.0
1.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.4
2001
2002
2003
Fuel ethanol
2004
2005
Crude oil
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Note: Colored bands represent "normal" range published in EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Appendix A.
600
2.2%
-0.8%
2010
2011
0.9%
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
Total
Motor gasoline
2012
Jet fuel
Distillate fuel
Other
Forecast
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
600
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Note: Colored bands represent "normal" range published in EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Appendix A.
68
66
16%
Consumption
64
14%
62
12%
60
10%
58
54
3.9%
8%
6.5%
Annual growth
56
5.7%
6%
3.5%
4%
52
1.8%
50
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
2%
0%
48
46
-2%
-1.6%
-1.4% -1.5%
-3.2%
44
-4%
-4.4%
42
2000
2001
-6%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Storage level
4,000
120%
3,000
100%
2,000
80%
1,000
60%
40%
0
Deviation from 2006 - 2010 average
-1,000
20%
-2,000
0%
-3,000
Jan 2007
-20%
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010
2011
Electric power sector
2012
Coke plants
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Total U.S.
Western region
Appalachian region
Interior region
2010
2011
2012
Jan
2004
Jan
2005
Jan
2006
Jan
2007
Jan
2008
Jan
2009
Jan
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Note: Colored bands represent "normal" range published in EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Appendix A.
12
20%
Consumption
11
18%
16%
10
14%
12%
10%
Annual growth
8%
6%
4.3%
2.8%
2.8%
2.1%
1.2%
0.8%
4%
1.9%
0.5%
0.2%
1.1%
2%
0%
-0.7%
-2%
-0.9%
-4%
-3.4%
5
-6%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
14
13
Forecast
36%
12
11
30%
10
9
24%
8
7
18%
6
10.3%
Annual growth
4
4.2%
3
2
3.2%
12%
5.7%
5.4%
2.6%
2.4%
0.9%
6%
2.2%
2.3%
0.6%
1.1%
0%
1
0
-1.6%
-6%
-1
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
12,000
10,000
Petroleum
Renewables
8,000
Hydropower
6,000
16.7%
17.9%
18.8%
20.1%
21.6%
21.4%
23.3%
23.8%
24.5%
25.0%
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Coal
4,000
Other Gases
50.8%
49.8%
49.6%
49.0%
48.5%
48.2%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2,000
Other Sources
44.4%
44.9%
43.3%
43.0%
2009
2010
2011
2012
Note: Labels show percentage share of total generation provided by natural gas and coal.
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2011
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2011
Coal
Petroleum
2012
Natural Gas
2012
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
Normal
1000
800
600
400
200
0
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/
Pacific
WEST
MIDWEST
NORTHEAST
WA
ND
MT
MN
OR
W
ID
NV
Mountain
CO
CA
West
North
Central
SD
Pacific
NE
VT
W
IA
MO
KS
Middle
Atlantic
PA
IN
IL
UT
WV
NM
Pacific
HI
VA
KY
OK
AZ
TX
EastTN
AR
South
West
Central
South
AL
LA MS
Central
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
NC
South
Atlantic
SC
GA
LEGEND
REGION
Division
State
FL
SOUTH
ME
New
NY England
East
MI
North
Central OH
2011
Year-over-year Change
(percent)
Q2
Q3
Season
Q2
Q3
Season
Q2
Q3
Season
1.85
1.81
1.83
2.43
2.19
2.31
31.4
21.1
26.3
1.77
1.75
1.76
2.58
2.34
2.46
45.7
34.1
39.7
1.79
1.76
1.78
2.57
2.34
2.46
43.5
32.8
38.1
2.18
2.10
2.14
3.11
2.91
3.01
42.7
38.9
40.8
2.20
2.15
2.17
3.17
3.00
3.08
44.0
39.5
41.8
2.81
2.72
2.76
3.79
3.58
3.68
35.3
31.4
33.3
3.03
2.94
2.98
4.02
3.85
3.93
32.7
31.0
31.9
9.193
9.224
9.209
8.916
9.121
9.019
-3.0
-1.1
-2.1
7.607
7.692
7.650
7.516
7.730
7.624
-1.2
0.5
-0.3
-0.2
-2.2
-1.2
-17.0
-21.3
-19.3
0.849
0.855
0.852
0.848
0.837
0.842
0.104
-0.040
0.032
0.026
-0.009
0.008
Net Imports f
0.633
0.716
0.675
0.526
0.564
0.545
89.2
88.9
89.1
85.4
88.0
86.7
225.0
215.6
225.0
214.9
212.5
214.9
Ending
215.6
219.3
219.3
212.5
213.4
213.4
13,195
13,279
13,237
13,508
13,618
13,563
2.4
2.6
2.5
Real Income
10,252
10,277
10,264
10,332
10,390
10,361
0.8
1.1
0.9
Notes: Minor discrepancies with other Energy Information Administration (EIA) published historical data are due to rounding. Historical data
are printed in bold. Forecasts are in italic. The forecasts were generated by simulation of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Sources: Historical data: latest data available from: EIA,Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109; Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA0035; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP and income); Reuters News Service (WTI crude oil spotprice).
Macroeconomic projections are based on IHS Global Insight Macroeconomic Forecast Model.
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
Energy Supply
Crude Oil Production (a)
(million barrels per day) ..............................
5.49
5.40
5.46
5.54
5.57
5.60
5.46
5.64
5.69
5.67
5.62
5.64
5.47
5.57
5.65
57.93
58.56
59.28
60.66
61.05
63.01
63.06
63.13
63.15
62.96
62.96
63.41
59.12
62.57
63.12
Coal Production
(million short tons) .......................................
265
265
278
277
274
258
263
272
276
257
269
268
1,085
1,067
1,070
Liquid Fuels
(million barrels per day) ..............................
18.87
19.15
19.47
19.23
19.09
18.67
19.18
19.17
19.16
19.07
19.33
19.24
19.18
19.03
19.20
Natural Gas
(billion cubic feet per day) ...........................
83.41
54.42
57.93
68.99
83.87
56.07
58.58
71.10
83.85
56.03
59.53
71.96
66.13
67.35
67.83
Coal (b)
(million short tons) .......................................
265
247
286
250
254
239
276
255
267
232
272
250
1,048
1,025
1,022
Electricity
(billion kilowatt hours per day) ....................
10.61
10.02
12.01
9.92
10.60
10.13
11.98
10.06
10.78
10.23
12.01
10.23
10.64
10.70
10.82
Renewables (c)
(quadrillion Btu) ...........................................
1.77
1.95
1.80
1.84
2.04
2.30
2.05
1.91
2.05
2.20
2.00
2.02
7.36
8.30
8.26
25.75
22.97
24.63
25.08
26.02
23.38
24.62
24.95
26.44
23.30
24.65
25.14
98.43
98.98
99.53
75.89
75.34
74.06
81.69
93.98
108.10
98.36
101.00
105.00
106.00
108.00
109.00
76.72
100.40
107.01
4.79
4.07
4.11
3.67
4.06
4.10
4.04
3.91
4.01
3.87
4.03
4.46
4.15
4.03
4.09
Coal
(dollars per million Btu) ...............................
2.26
2.26
2.28
2.25
2.35
2.42
2.40
2.34
2.41
2.39
2.36
2.32
2.26
2.38
2.37
13,139
2.4
13,195
3.0
13,279
3.2
13,381
2.8
13,444
2.3
13,508
2.4
13,618
2.6
13,713
2.5
13,793
2.6
13,865
2.6
13,952
2.4
14,059
2.5
13,248
2.9
13,571
2.4
13,917
2.6
110.0
0.5
110.5
0.8
111.1
1.2
111.2
1.3
111.7
1.6
112.5
1.9
113.1
1.8
113.2
1.9
113.6
1.7
113.8
1.1
114.3
1.1
114.8
1.4
110.7
1.0
112.6
1.8
114.1
1.3
10,113
0.7
10,252
0.6
10,277
2.0
10,305
2.2
10,328
2.1
10,332
0.8
10,390
1.1
10,450
1.4
10,410
0.8
10,478
1.4
10,506
1.1
10,542
0.9
10,237
1.4
10,375
1.4
10,484
1.0
85.0
2.2
86.9
7.5
88.1
7.2
89.0
6.6
90.5
6.4
90.8
4.5
92.5
4.9
93.6
5.2
94.7
4.6
95.3
4.9
96.3
4.2
97.1
3.8
87.3
5.8
91.8
5.3
95.9
4.4
2,311
12
422
445
62
930
1,665
68
2,285
33
517
432
92
864
1,626
77
2,247
36
539
345
99
777
1,614
82
4,460
1,455
4,520
1,406
4,499
1,240
Energy Consumption
Energy Prices
Macroeconomic
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption.
(c) Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy.
EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.
(d) The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIAs Monthly Energy Review (MER).
Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER or the Annual Energy Review (AER).
(e) Refers to the refiner average acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report, DOE/EIA-0208; Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380; Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130;
Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226; Quarterly Coal Report, DOE/EIA-0121; and International Petroleum Monthly, DOE/EIA-0520.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model. Macroeconomic projections are based on Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.
Weather projections from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
78.64
75.28
75.89
77.79
74.32
75.34
76.05
73.32
74.06
85.10
81.03
81.69
93.50
94.23
93.98
102.22
108.30
108.10
92.10
98.30
98.36
95.00
100.95
101.00
99.00
105.00
105.00
100.00
106.00
106.00
102.00
108.00
108.00
103.00
109.00
109.00
79.40
75.87
76.72
95.71
100.46
100.40
101.00
107.00
107.01
211
209
205
218
220
212
210
215
204
227
240
234
267
286
275
311
317
309
291
300
293
279
300
299
289
303
303
302
307
304
303
313
308
294
315
314
217
221
215
287
301
291
297
310
307
210
172
219
170
214
166
238
182
287
218
321
244
299
231
300
234
305
239
305
240
311
244
315
250
220
172
302
231
309
243
271
277
285
292
281
286
303
292
272
277
294
282
288
294
315
310
329
335
363
359
379
385
402
393
358
363
385
381
344
350
384
390
354
360
391
402
369
374
395
401
371
377
397
401
360
366
401
411
278
283
299
297
353
358
383
374
364
369
396
405
4.79
5.30
5.15
4.07
4.45
4.32
4.11
4.41
4.28
3.67
3.91
3.80
4.06
4.31
4.18
4.10
4.50
4.37
4.04
4.33
4.20
3.91
4.31
4.19
4.01
4.48
4.35
3.87
4.31
4.19
4.03
4.46
4.33
4.46
4.93
4.79
4.15
4.52
4.39
4.03
4.36
4.24
4.09
4.55
4.41
6.51
9.30
10.59
4.98
9.25
12.54
5.07
9.63
15.47
4.89
8.66
10.56
5.41
8.74
9.97
5.21
9.16
11.91
5.40
9.81
16.09
5.67
9.66
11.77
5.89
9.41
10.79
5.31
9.46
12.45
5.42
9.96
16.44
6.10
10.08
12.44
5.40
9.14
11.18
5.43
9.22
11.22
5.70
9.69
11.93
Coal ...............................................................................
Natural Gas ..................................................................
Residual Fuel Oil (c) ......................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil ...........................................................
End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)
2.26
6.06
12.10
15.84
2.26
4.89
12.36
16.48
2.28
4.88
12.36
16.18
2.25
4.69
14.19
17.94
2.35
5.05
15.88
20.99
2.42
4.92
18.42
23.64
2.40
4.98
18.06
22.95
2.34
4.97
17.79
22.93
2.41
5.17
18.37
23.26
2.39
4.93
18.73
23.31
2.36
5.04
18.91
23.74
2.32
5.52
19.08
24.12
2.26
5.08
12.63
16.60
2.38
4.98
17.70
22.60
2.37
5.15
18.78
23.63
6.53
9.87
10.88
6.75
10.30
11.90
7.17
10.71
12.02
6.67
10.06
11.50
6.68
10.01
11.24
6.85
10.40
12.03
7.41
10.88
12.34
6.84
10.31
11.71
6.70
10.20
11.26
6.87
10.58
12.21
7.33
11.09
12.51
6.85
10.41
11.89
6.79
10.26
11.58
6.95
10.42
11.85
6.94
10.59
11.97
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Average for all sulfur contents.
(b) Average self-service cash price.
(c) Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Prices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review , DOE/EIA-0035.
Natural gas Henry Hub and WTI crude oil spot prices from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3a. International Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
2011
2012
Year
2011
2012
21.42
9.69
3.49
2.98
3.73
1.52
65.51
35.15
29.77
5.39
13.17
4.27
12.92
86.93
21.48
9.83
3.62
2.93
3.60
1.49
66.22
35.42
29.51
5.91
13.37
4.42
13.00
87.70
21.66
9.91
3.84
2.90
3.51
1.50
67.75
36.33
30.01
6.32
13.43
4.55
13.44
89.41
52.96
51.78
52.28
53.08
45.75
19.33
0.27
2.28
14.47
4.03
5.37
44.32
4.71
0.82
10.64
9.95
18.20
90.07
46.41
19.23
0.27
2.27
14.59
4.40
5.65
44.03
4.67
0.82
10.84
10.18
17.52
90.45
46.12
19.18
0.27
2.21
14.58
4.45
5.43
40.70
4.40
0.80
9.17
9.72
16.60
86.82
45.84
19.02
0.27
2.23
14.42
4.43
5.47
42.35
4.52
0.79
10.00
10.02
17.02
88.19
45.95
19.19
0.27
2.25
14.36
4.34
5.54
43.87
4.61
0.80
10.60
10.24
17.63
89.83
-0.39
0.01
0.01
-0.36
-0.07
0.31
0.51
0.74
0.56
0.07
0.12
0.76
-0.05
0.00
-0.06
-0.11
0.11
0.11
0.27
0.50
0.05
0.14
0.23
0.42
1,088
2,612
1,095
2,591
1,043
2,532
1,068
2,649
1,063
2,603
1,043
2,532
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
21.56
9.58
3.37
3.02
4.08
1.51
64.55
34.51
29.40
5.11
13.11
4.16
12.78
86.11
21.33
9.58
3.47
2.99
3.74
1.55
65.33
35.02
29.65
5.37
13.15
4.23
12.92
86.66
21.04
9.70
3.49
2.97
3.36
1.53
66.22
35.71
30.15
5.57
13.18
4.31
13.01
87.26
21.74
9.89
3.64
2.95
3.76
1.50
65.94
35.35
29.85
5.49
13.23
4.39
12.97
87.68
21.40
9.77
3.58
2.99
3.60
1.46
65.98
35.32
29.78
5.54
13.28
4.36
13.02
87.38
21.55
9.89
3.60
2.99
3.56
1.50
65.78
35.08
29.22
5.86
13.32
4.42
12.96
87.33
21.42
9.77
3.62
2.91
3.60
1.53
66.87
35.82
29.70
6.12
13.52
4.46
13.08
88.29
21.55
9.89
3.70
2.85
3.63
1.48
66.24
35.46
29.35
6.11
13.37
4.45
12.95
87.79
21.82
9.88
3.80
2.93
3.71
1.50
67.36
36.03
29.78
6.25
13.61
4.51
13.22
89.18
21.74
9.95
3.82
2.91
3.56
1.49
67.69
36.16
29.86
6.30
13.52
4.56
13.45
89.42
21.50
9.91
3.86
2.89
3.33
1.51
67.83
36.39
30.04
6.35
13.37
4.57
13.50
89.33
21.57
9.89
3.89
2.88
3.43
1.48
68.12
36.73
30.36
6.37
13.23
4.58
13.58
89.69
51.60
51.64
51.55
52.33
52.06
52.25
52.48
52.32
53.15
53.27
52.94
45.28
19.15
0.27
2.17
14.25
4.07
5.37
41.14
4.34
0.77
9.31
9.93
16.79
86.42
46.60
19.47
0.27
2.26
14.92
4.36
5.32
40.92
4.49
0.83
8.89
9.47
17.25
87.52
46.70
19.23
0.27
2.25
14.82
4.57
5.57
41.08
4.45
0.83
9.60
9.69
16.52
87.79
46.14
19.09
0.27
2.23
14.18
4.86
5.52
41.30
4.42
0.78
9.65
10.18
16.27
87.44
44.45
18.67
0.27
2.14
14.08
3.91
5.37
42.68
4.47
0.76
10.11
10.20
17.13
87.12
46.05
19.17
0.27
2.28
14.65
4.33
5.35
42.88
4.62
0.81
10.02
9.74
17.69
88.93
46.73
19.14
0.27
2.27
14.77
4.65
5.63
42.53
4.58
0.81
10.21
9.97
16.96
89.26
46.66
19.15
0.27
2.26
14.36
4.93
5.69
43.05
4.50
0.79
10.32
10.40
17.03
89.71
44.97
19.06
0.27
2.17
14.01
4.00
5.46
44.08
4.55
0.77
10.58
10.42
17.75
89.06
-0.21
0.27
0.21
0.26
0.73
0.29
-0.91
0.11
0.27
0.00
-0.22
0.06
-0.31
-0.19
0.29
-0.21
-0.16
0.31
0.49
0.64
0.65
0.33
0.50
1.47
0.11
0.17
0.26
0.53
1,135
2,743
1,068
2,649
1,043
2,624
1,071
2,670
1,122
2,693
1,063
2,603
1,053
2,578
1,115
2,747
2010
- = no data available
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
(a) Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
(b) Includes offshore supply from Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom.
(c) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with "petroleum product supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.
Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3b. Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
2011
2012
Year
2011
2012
16.16
3.49
2.98
9.69
16.39
3.62
2.93
9.83
16.65
3.84
2.90
9.91
5.32
0.75
3.04
1.06
0.46
4.79
0.78
2.74
0.80
0.46
5.02
0.76
2.87
0.94
0.45
5.24
0.76
2.99
1.03
0.46
4.18
1.98
1.11
0.25
4.27
2.03
1.15
0.24
4.60
2.13
1.32
0.28
4.46
2.10
1.23
0.27
4.35
2.07
1.19
0.25
13.52
1.19
1.81
10.14
0.21
0.39
13.37
1.14
1.82
10.03
0.21
0.38
13.23
1.09
1.83
9.93
0.22
0.38
13.17
1.04
1.61
10.13
0.20
0.39
13.37
1.10
1.70
10.19
0.21
0.39
13.43
1.15
1.81
10.08
0.21
0.38
1.43
0.88
0.38
0.11
1.54
0.88
0.38
0.23
1.54
0.88
0.37
0.24
1.53
0.88
0.37
0.24
1.58
0.87
0.40
0.26
1.42
0.87
0.38
0.12
1.51
0.88
0.37
0.20
9.11
0.55
4.45
0.98
1.02
0.64
0.42
9.25
0.55
4.51
1.01
1.03
0.65
0.45
9.30
0.55
4.56
1.00
1.03
0.63
0.48
9.34
0.56
4.57
1.00
1.03
0.63
0.50
9.37
0.53
4.58
1.01
1.03
0.65
0.52
8.90
0.55
4.27
0.95
1.03
0.67
0.36
9.05
0.53
4.42
1.00
1.01
0.65
0.39
9.32
0.55
4.55
1.01
1.03
0.64
0.49
2.58
0.69
0.30
0.22
0.46
2.55
0.68
0.29
0.21
0.46
2.58
0.70
0.29
0.21
0.46
2.58
0.70
0.29
0.21
0.46
2.57
0.70
0.29
0.20
0.46
2.58
0.70
0.29
0.20
0.46
2.58
0.66
0.32
0.23
0.51
2.56
0.68
0.30
0.21
0.47
2.58
0.70
0.29
0.21
0.46
52.25
52.48
52.32
53.15
53.27
52.94
52.96
51.78
52.28
53.08
5.86
58.10
6.12
58.60
6.11
58.43
6.25
59.40
6.30
59.56
6.35
59.29
6.37
59.33
5.39
57.17
5.91
58.19
6.32
59.40
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
15.97
3.37
3.02
9.58
16.04
3.47
2.99
9.58
16.16
3.49
2.97
9.70
16.48
3.64
2.95
9.89
16.34
3.58
2.99
9.77
16.48
3.60
2.99
9.89
16.30
3.62
2.91
9.77
16.44
3.70
2.85
9.89
16.61
3.80
2.93
9.88
16.68
3.82
2.91
9.95
16.66
3.86
2.89
9.91
16.66
3.89
2.88
9.89
4.72
0.80
2.68
0.77
0.47
4.80
0.79
2.75
0.79
0.46
4.81
0.79
2.75
0.80
0.46
4.83
0.75
2.80
0.83
0.45
4.90
0.76
2.82
0.88
0.45
5.05
0.76
2.90
0.94
0.45
5.09
0.77
2.90
0.96
0.46
5.04
0.75
2.86
0.97
0.45
5.12
0.76
2.89
1.00
0.46
5.25
0.76
3.02
1.02
0.46
5.29
0.76
3.02
1.04
0.46
Europe ...............................................
Norway .................................................
United Kingdom (offshore) ..................
Other North Sea ..................................
4.92
2.32
1.46
0.30
4.60
2.11
1.35
0.29
4.24
1.93
1.18
0.25
4.64
2.18
1.30
0.28
4.51
2.10
1.24
0.26
4.43
2.07
1.22
0.28
4.45
2.17
1.16
0.27
4.46
2.06
1.30
0.26
4.56
2.14
1.31
0.26
4.40
2.12
1.19
0.25
13.11
1.00
1.61
10.10
0.20
0.41
13.15
1.05
1.57
10.14
0.20
0.39
13.18
1.05
1.61
10.14
0.20
0.38
13.23
1.06
1.66
10.13
0.21
0.39
13.28
1.00
1.67
10.22
0.21
0.39
13.32
1.00
1.67
10.25
0.21
0.39
13.52
1.21
1.72
10.19
0.21
0.39
13.37
1.17
1.72
10.09
0.21
0.39
13.61
1.19
1.79
10.23
0.21
0.39
1.59
0.86
0.40
0.27
1.58
0.86
0.40
0.26
1.57
0.87
0.40
0.25
1.58
0.88
0.40
0.25
1.56
0.89
0.38
0.24
1.40
0.87
0.39
0.09
1.37
0.87
0.38
0.07
1.36
0.86
0.38
0.07
8.68
0.56
4.16
0.91
1.02
0.68
0.35
8.86
0.58
4.23
0.92
1.04
0.67
0.36
9.02
0.55
4.31
0.98
1.04
0.65
0.39
9.02
0.53
4.39
1.00
1.00
0.66
0.36
8.90
0.46
4.36
1.00
1.00
0.66
0.36
9.03
0.54
4.42
1.00
1.00
0.63
0.37
9.18
0.59
4.46
1.00
1.03
0.67
0.41
Africa ..................................................
Egypt ....................................................
Equatorial Guinea ................................
Gabon ..................................................
Sudan ..................................................
2.61
0.66
0.33
0.23
0.51
2.60
0.66
0.33
0.23
0.51
2.57
0.66
0.32
0.23
0.51
2.55
0.66
0.31
0.22
0.51
2.56
0.66
0.31
0.22
0.49
2.54
0.68
0.31
0.20
0.47
51.60
51.64
51.55
52.33
52.06
5.11
56.71
5.37
57.01
5.57
57.11
5.49
57.82
5.54
57.60
2010
- = no data available
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
Sudan production represents total production from both north and south.
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
Not all countries are shown in each region and sum of reported country volumes may not equal regional volumes.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Supply (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
2011
2012
Year
2011
2012
1.30
1.85
0.49
3.75
2.37
2.28
1.65
2.05
0.85
8.78
2.30
2.11
29.77
29.51
30.01
6.37
5.39
5.91
6.32
36.39
36.73
35.15
35.42
36.33
33.31
33.49
33.67
1.30
1.85
0.49
3.75
2.37
2.60
1.65
2.05
0.85
12.19
2.60
2.11
33.76
32.86
33.42
3.45
3.45
3.31
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.32
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.41
0.30
0.00
3.99
3.35
3.41
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Crude Oil
Algeria ...........................................
Angola ...........................................
Ecudaor .........................................
Iran ................................................
Iraq ................................................
Kuwait ............................................
Libya ..............................................
Nigeria ...........................................
Qatar .............................................
Saudi Arabia .................................
United Arab Emirates ....................
Venezuela .....................................
OPEC Total ................................
1.35
1.97
0.47
3.80
2.42
2.30
1.65
2.03
0.84
8.20
2.30
2.07
29.40
1.30
1.94
0.48
3.80
2.37
2.23
1.65
1.95
0.85
8.70
2.30
2.09
29.65
1.27
1.79
0.49
3.70
2.32
2.30
1.65
2.08
0.85
9.30
2.30
2.10
30.15
1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.40
2.30
1.65
2.12
0.85
8.90
2.30
2.17
29.85
1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.33
1.09
2.13
0.85
9.03
2.43
2.20
29.78
1.27
1.60
0.49
3.70
2.53
2.50
0.20
2.15
0.85
9.13
2.60
2.20
29.22
29.70
29.35
29.78
29.86
30.04
30.36
5.11
5.37
5.57
5.49
5.54
5.86
6.12
6.11
6.25
6.30
6.35
34.51
35.02
35.71
35.35
35.32
35.08
35.82
35.46
36.03
36.16
1.35
1.97
0.47
3.80
2.42
2.60
1.65
2.03
0.85
12.00
2.60
2.07
33.69
1.30
1.94
0.48
3.80
2.37
2.60
1.65
1.95
0.85
12.25
2.60
2.09
33.85
1.27
1.79
0.49
3.70
2.32
2.60
1.65
2.08
0.85
12.25
2.60
2.10
33.70
1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.40
2.60
1.65
2.12
0.85
12.25
2.60
2.17
33.81
1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.62
1.09
2.13
0.85
12.25
2.66
2.20
33.48
1.27
1.60
0.49
3.70
2.53
2.64
0.20
2.15
0.85
12.25
2.66
2.20
32.54
32.64
32.80
33.23
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.55
0.30
0.00
4.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.95
0.30
0.00
3.55
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.35
0.30
0.00
3.95
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.22
0.23
0.00
3.70
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.12
0.06
0.00
3.32
2.95
3.45
3.45
2010
- = no data available
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3d. World Liquid Fuels Consumption (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
2011
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23.10
2.15
2.07
18.87
23.43
2.17
2.10
19.15
23.79
2.26
2.05
19.47
23.55
2.25
2.07
19.23
23.35
2.23
2.03
19.09
23.00
2.14
2.18
18.67
23.61
2.28
2.15
19.17
23.58
2.27
2.16
19.14
23.60
2.26
2.18
19.15
23.46
2.17
2.22
19.06
23.78
2.28
2.16
19.33
23.69
2.27
2.17
19.23
6.15
2.51
6.40
2.62
6.39
2.67
6.38
2.65
6.29
2.63
6.55
2.74
6.54
2.80
6.53
2.77
6.50
2.78
6.77
2.89
6.76
2.96
Europe .......................................................................
15.10
15.03
15.75
15.65
14.96
14.85
15.46
15.58
15.15
14.78
4.32
2.92
4.34
2.94
4.49
3.04
4.45
3.00
4.42
2.95
4.47
3.01
4.62
3.10
4.58
3.06
4.50
2.99
6.56
7.30
7.87
7.05
6.94
7.58
8.19
7.42
26.93
8.88
4.82
3.36
26.59
9.31
4.07
3.33
25.99
8.89
4.36
3.05
27.37
9.60
4.57
3.30
28.19
9.65
4.86
3.54
27.43
10.11
3.91
3.41
27.31
10.02
4.33
3.13
Africa ..........................................................................
3.37
3.34
3.25
3.34
3.29
3.24
45.90
39.63
45.28
41.14
46.60
40.92
46.70
41.08
46.14
41.30
85.52
86.42
87.52
87.79
105.93
4.1
107.05
4.5
107.91
4.3
97.58
-6.4
99.82
-1.1
98.69
0.8
2010
2011
2012
23.47
2.21
2.07
19.18
23.39
2.23
2.13
19.02
23.63
2.25
2.18
19.19
6.75
2.93
6.33
2.61
6.48
2.73
6.69
2.89
15.29
15.41
15.38
15.22
15.16
4.55
3.04
4.71
3.14
4.67
3.10
4.40
2.98
4.52
3.03
4.61
3.07
7.41
7.91
8.41
7.69
7.20
7.54
7.86
28.32
10.21
4.65
3.37
29.18
10.32
4.93
3.66
28.27
10.58
4.00
3.52
27.84
10.64
4.03
3.24
28.91
10.84
4.40
3.49
26.72
9.17
4.45
3.26
27.81
10.00
4.43
3.36
28.55
10.60
4.34
3.48
3.20
3.26
3.36
3.31
3.27
3.33
3.32
3.25
3.32
44.45
42.68
46.05
42.88
46.73
42.53
46.66
43.05
44.97
44.08
45.75
44.32
46.41
44.03
46.12
40.70
45.84
42.35
45.95
43.87
87.44
87.12
88.93
89.26
89.71
89.06
90.07
90.45
86.82
88.19
89.83
108.93
3.9
109.72
3.6
110.40
3.1
111.57
3.4
112.78
3.5
113.96
3.9
115.05
4.2
116.15
4.1
117.36
4.1
107.47
4.2
111.13
3.4
115.64
4.1
96.17
0.8
97.31
-0.3
97.00
-2.8
96.43
-2.3
95.88
-0.3
95.65
-1.7
95.73
-1.3
95.79
-0.7
95.85
0.0
98.06
-1.5
96.65
-1.4
95.76
-0.9
- = no data available
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
(a) Weighted geometric mean of real indices for various countries with weights equal to each country's share of world oil consumption in the base period. Exchange rate is measured in foreign currency per U.S.
dollar.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 4a. U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
1st
Supply (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil Supply
Domestic Production (a) .........................................
Alaska .................................................................
Federal Gulf of Mexico (b) ...................................
Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ...............................
Crude Oil Net Imports (c) ........................................
SPR Net Withdrawals ............................................
Commercial Inventory Net Withdrawals .................
Crude Oil Adjustment (d) ........................................
Total Crude Oil Input to Refineries ............................
Other Supply
Refinery Processing Gain .......................................
Natural Gas Liquids Production .............................
Renewables and Oxygenate Production (e) ...........
Fuel Ethanol Production ......................................
Petroleum Products Adjustment (f) ........................
Product Net Imports (c) ..........................................
Pentanes Plus .....................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .....................................
Unfinished Oils ....................................................
Other HC/Oxygenates ..........................................
Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. ..............................
Finished Motor Gasoline .....................................
Jet Fuel ................................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil .................................................
Residual Fuel Oil .................................................
Other Oils (g) .......................................................
Product Inventory Net Withdrawals ........................
Total Supply ...............................................................
2nd
2011
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
5.49
0.64
1.71
3.14
8.82
0.00
-0.38
0.04
13.98
5.40
0.58
1.65
3.17
9.73
0.00
-0.07
0.18
15.24
5.46
0.57
1.58
3.32
9.52
0.00
0.03
0.12
15.13
5.54
0.61
1.56
3.37
8.61
0.00
0.32
0.06
14.54
5.57
0.56
1.54
3.47
8.68
0.00
-0.32
0.31
14.23
5.60
0.56
1.50
3.55
8.90
0.00
0.04
0.21
14.75
5.46
0.51
1.39
3.56
9.49
0.33
-0.11
0.07
15.25
5.64
0.56
1.43
3.65
8.69
0.00
0.24
-0.02
14.54
5.69
0.56
1.45
3.68
8.91
0.00
-0.21
0.07
14.46
5.67
0.54
1.41
3.72
9.25
0.00
0.10
0.09
15.12
5.62
0.52
1.35
3.75
9.28
0.00
0.17
0.03
15.09
5.64
0.50
1.35
3.79
8.75
0.00
0.15
-0.02
14.53
5.47
0.60
1.63
3.25
9.17
0.00
-0.02
0.10
14.72
5.57
0.55
1.47
3.56
8.94
0.08
-0.04
0.14
14.70
5.65
0.53
1.39
3.73
9.05
0.00
0.05
0.04
14.80
1.03
2.05
0.87
0.84
0.15
0.54
-0.03
0.08
0.52
-0.06
0.61
-0.12
0.01
-0.10
-0.02
-0.35
0.26
18.87
1.06
2.07
0.89
0.85
0.16
0.26
-0.01
-0.01
0.57
-0.07
0.74
-0.11
0.02
-0.48
-0.03
-0.38
-0.53
19.15
1.10
2.06
0.91
0.87
0.18
0.35
0.01
-0.02
0.65
-0.09
0.83
-0.12
0.03
-0.54
-0.07
-0.34
-0.24
19.47
1.08
2.13
0.95
0.91
0.18
-0.06
0.01
0.03
0.68
-0.09
0.62
-0.30
-0.01
-0.58
-0.03
-0.39
0.41
19.23
1.03
2.04
0.95
0.91
0.18
0.05
0.01
0.04
0.62
-0.10
0.65
-0.30
-0.04
-0.44
0.02
-0.39
0.60
19.08
1.04
2.16
0.94
0.89
0.18
0.00
0.03
-0.08
0.67
-0.10
0.84
-0.32
-0.01
-0.67
-0.01
-0.36
-0.37
18.69
1.04
2.17
0.92
0.88
0.12
0.13
-0.01
-0.01
0.72
-0.08
0.77
-0.20
0.00
-0.60
-0.09
-0.37
-0.44
19.20
1.04
2.14
0.93
0.89
0.13
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
0.64
-0.09
0.66
-0.29
0.00
-0.42
-0.09
-0.39
0.40
19.17
1.00
2.12
0.93
0.90
0.13
0.20
-0.02
-0.01
0.62
-0.08
0.68
-0.23
0.00
-0.48
0.02
-0.29
0.32
19.16
1.02
2.19
0.93
0.90
0.13
0.16
-0.02
-0.06
0.64
-0.08
0.74
-0.20
0.02
-0.48
-0.01
-0.39
-0.48
19.07
1.05
2.18
0.93
0.90
0.13
0.20
-0.02
-0.07
0.72
-0.08
0.71
-0.11
0.02
-0.49
-0.06
-0.42
-0.25
19.33
1.04
2.15
0.93
0.90
0.13
0.06
-0.01
-0.03
0.63
-0.08
0.71
-0.30
0.01
-0.36
-0.07
-0.44
0.39
19.24
1.07
2.07
0.91
0.87
0.17
0.27
-0.01
0.02
0.61
-0.08
0.70
-0.16
0.01
-0.43
-0.04
-0.36
-0.03
19.18
1.04
2.13
0.93
0.89
0.15
0.05
0.00
-0.02
0.66
-0.09
0.73
-0.28
-0.01
-0.53
-0.04
-0.38
0.04
19.04
1.03
2.16
0.93
0.90
0.13
0.16
-0.02
-0.04
0.66
-0.08
0.71
-0.21
0.01
-0.45
-0.03
-0.39
-0.01
19.20
0.09
2.46
0.03
0.07
1.89
0.02
0.11
2.03
0.00
0.10
2.32
0.00
0.10
2.45
0.06
0.09
1.94
-0.03
0.09
2.00
0.00
0.10
2.24
0.01
0.08
2.42
0.01
0.08
1.96
0.00
0.09
2.04
0.00
0.10
2.26
0.02
0.09
2.17
0.01
0.10
2.16
0.01
0.09
2.17
0.01
8.63
1.38
3.79
0.55
1.93
18.87
9.19
1.47
3.71
0.54
2.25
19.15
9.22
1.48
3.75
0.53
2.35
19.47
8.92
1.40
3.94
0.52
2.04
19.23
8.60
1.36
3.95
0.60
1.96
19.09
8.92
1.44
3.66
0.53
2.14
18.67
9.12
1.48
3.71
0.48
2.30
19.18
8.87
1.42
3.97
0.50
2.05
19.17
8.67
1.40
3.98
0.59
2.02
19.16
9.01
1.46
3.78
0.57
2.22
19.07
9.17
1.48
3.78
0.51
2.27
19.33
8.88
1.43
4.04
0.51
2.01
19.24
8.99
1.43
3.80
0.54
2.14
19.18
8.88
1.43
3.82
0.53
2.11
19.03
8.93
1.44
3.89
0.54
2.13
19.20
................................
9.36
9.99
9.87
8.55
8.74
8.90
9.62
8.68
9.11
9.42
9.47
8.82
9.44
8.98
9.20
359.2
9.4
72.9
87.2
22.6
225.0
81.9
143.1
42.2
146.8
40.7
54.4
1,060
727
2.0
365.5
11.5
119.9
84.2
20.5
215.6
71.8
143.8
44.8
157.9
42.7
52.3
1,115
727
2.0
362.8
11.9
141.4
83.3
18.9
219.3
70.2
149.0
46.8
166.7
40.1
43.4
1,135
727
2.0
333.4
12.5
108.3
80.6
19.4
219.4
63.3
156.2
43.2
164.3
41.3
45.0
1,068
727
2.0
362.6
10.8
68.7
87.4
23.2
214.9
60.8
154.1
40.0
148.5
37.1
49.6
1,043
727
0.0
358.6
14.5
104.8
86.4
21.9
212.5
56.8
155.8
43.3
144.1
37.8
49.1
1,073
727
0.0
368.6
15.1
138.7
85.0
22.4
213.4
54.4
159.0
44.3
158.3
36.6
41.5
1,124
696
1.5
346.9
12.4
106.5
81.1
21.8
218.7
54.3
164.5
42.2
156.8
36.5
42.8
1,066
696
2.0
365.7
11.8
74.9
90.1
23.8
219.1
52.3
166.8
42.2
136.5
38.5
52.4
1,055
696
2.0
356.5
13.4
115.0
86.6
22.9
217.9
55.6
162.2
42.8
146.0
39.1
49.9
1,090
696
2.0
341.3
14.2
141.1
85.6
23.4
212.4
55.9
156.5
43.9
155.1
38.1
42.8
1,098
696
2.0
327.0
11.7
106.1
80.0
22.9
220.7
56.3
164.4
41.4
155.7
38.5
43.8
1,048
696
2.0
333.4
12.5
108.3
80.6
19.4
219.4
63.3
156.2
43.2
164.3
41.3
45.0
1,068
727
2.0
346.9
12.4
106.5
81.1
21.8
218.7
54.3
164.5
42.2
156.8
36.5
42.8
1,066
696
2.0
327.0
11.7
106.1
80.0
22.9
220.7
56.3
164.4
41.4
155.7
38.5
43.8
1,048
696
2.0
- = no data available
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Crude oil production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).
(c) Net imports equals gross imports minus gross exports.
(d) Crude oil adjustment balances supply and consumption and was previously referred to as "Unaccounted for Crude Oil."
(e) Renewables and oxygenate production includes pentanes plus, oxygenates (excluding fuel ethanol), and renewable fuels.
(f) Petroleum products adjustment includes hydrogen/oxygenates/renewables/other hydrocarbons, motor gasoline blend components, and finished motor gasoline.
(g) "Other Oils" inludes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still
gas, and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
SPR: Strategic Petroleum Reserve
HC: Hydrocarbons
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 4b. U.S. Petroleum Refinery Balance (Million Barrels per Day, Except Utilization Factor)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
1st
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
2012
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
13.98
0.14
0.30
0.88
0.41
0.48
0.00
16.20
15.24
0.15
0.24
0.97
0.58
0.73
0.00
17.91
15.13
0.16
0.24
0.98
0.66
0.86
0.00
18.03
14.54
0.17
0.37
0.99
0.71
0.61
0.00
17.38
14.23
0.17
0.34
0.96
0.48
0.60
0.00
16.78
14.75
0.18
0.26
1.00
0.71
0.82
0.00
17.72
15.25
0.16
0.27
0.95
0.74
0.69
0.00
18.05
14.54
0.17
0.38
0.93
0.67
0.59
0.00
17.29
14.46
0.16
0.31
0.94
0.51
0.62
0.00
16.99
15.12
0.15
0.25
0.97
0.68
0.74
0.00
17.91
15.09
0.16
0.26
0.95
0.73
0.75
0.00
17.94
14.53
0.17
0.38
0.95
0.68
0.61
0.00
17.32
14.72
0.16
0.29
0.96
0.59
0.67
0.00
17.38
14.70
0.17
0.31
0.96
0.65
0.67
0.00
17.46
14.80
0.16
0.30
0.95
0.65
0.68
0.00
17.54
1.03
1.06
1.10
1.08
1.03
1.04
1.04
1.04
1.00
1.02
1.05
1.04
1.07
1.04
1.03
0.58
8.59
1.35
3.68
0.61
2.40
17.22
0.86
9.13
1.47
4.31
0.59
2.61
18.97
0.75
9.36
1.47
4.39
0.57
2.59
19.13
0.44
9.14
1.38
4.50
0.56
2.44
18.46
0.52
8.76
1.37
4.21
0.53
2.41
17.80
0.80
9.15
1.48
4.28
0.55
2.49
18.76
0.77
9.22
1.49
4.48
0.55
2.59
19.10
0.43
9.08
1.39
4.38
0.58
2.45
18.33
0.53
8.81
1.40
4.24
0.59
2.42
17.99
0.82
9.15
1.45
4.36
0.58
2.58
18.93
0.77
9.21
1.47
4.37
0.56
2.62
18.99
0.42
9.11
1.39
4.40
0.58
2.46
18.36
0.66
9.06
1.42
4.22
0.58
2.51
18.45
0.63
9.06
1.43
4.34
0.56
2.48
18.50
0.64
9.07
1.43
4.34
0.58
2.52
18.57
14.32
17.59
0.81
15.66
17.57
0.89
15.65
17.59
0.89
15.06
17.55
0.86
14.69
17.70
0.83
15.14
17.72
0.85
15.60
17.73
0.88
14.91
17.73
0.84
14.80
17.73
0.83
15.43
17.73
0.87
15.43
17.73
0.87
14.89
17.73
0.84
15.18
17.57
0.86
15.09
17.72
0.85
15.14
17.73
0.85
- = no data available
(a) "Other Oils" includes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still
gas, and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
218
210
227
267
311
291
279
289
302
303
294
217
287
297
278
276
269
284
304
281
286
265
270
257
279
304
272
277
288
286
272
279
311
288
294
329
326
314
311
353
329
335
377
380
365
365
400
379
385
359
354
343
352
375
358
363
343
338
329
340
369
344
350
354
347
341
345
380
354
360
366
362
355
363
399
369
374
369
366
355
370
399
371
377
360
353
345
357
388
360
366
275
274
264
276
303
278
283
352
350
338
342
375
353
358
362
357
349
359
392
364
369
60.1
49.3
72.5
6.4
27.3
215.6
55.3
52.5
73.9
6.5
31.1
219.3
52.7
49.1
78.4
7.0
32.3
219.4
55.0
50.5
70.3
6.5
32.7
214.9
55.3
49.6
71.2
6.9
29.5
212.5
55.6
51.2
71.4
6.4
28.8
213.4
56.9
50.4
74.0
6.9
30.5
218.7
56.9
51.5
74.3
6.7
29.7
219.1
57.5
50.6
73.3
6.2
30.2
217.9
55.8
50.3
70.9
6.3
29.1
212.4
58.0
51.1
74.2
6.9
30.5
220.7
52.7
49.1
78.4
7.0
32.3
219.4
56.9
50.4
74.0
6.9
30.5
218.7
58.0
51.1
74.2
6.9
30.5
220.7
71.8
70.2
63.3
60.8
56.8
54.4
54.3
52.3
55.6
55.9
56.3
63.3
54.3
56.3
143.8
149.0
156.2
154.1
155.8
159.0
164.5
166.8
162.2
156.5
164.4
156.2
164.5
164.4
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD).
See Petroleum for Administration Defense District in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2011
2012
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
60.59
1.16
6.67
52.77
57.93
11.42
9.87
1.55
3.12
8.29
0.20
16.26
82.68
0.74
83.41
61.27
0.98
6.22
54.07
58.56
9.65
8.44
1.22
2.77
6.89
0.16
-11.94
53.67
0.75
54.42
61.97
0.89
5.94
55.14
59.28
9.95
9.01
0.94
2.71
7.23
0.19
-8.22
58.48
-0.55
57.93
63.46
1.11
5.82
56.54
60.66
10.00
8.97
1.02
3.85
6.14
0.19
4.08
71.07
-2.08
68.99
63.83
1.12
5.60
57.10
61.05
11.07
9.84
1.23
4.50
6.57
0.20
16.97
84.80
-0.92
83.87
65.99
0.99
5.36
59.64
63.01
9.02
7.97
1.05
4.24
4.78
0.14
-10.44
57.48
-1.42
56.07
66.05
0.95
5.14
59.96
63.06
9.48
8.63
0.85
4.03
5.45
0.17
-10.51
58.16
0.42
58.58
66.13
1.08
5.39
59.67
63.13
9.18
8.31
0.87
4.25
4.92
0.19
3.57
71.81
-0.71
71.10
66.15
1.15
5.48
59.52
63.15
10.52
9.32
1.19
4.57
5.95
0.19
14.46
83.75
0.10
83.85
65.95
0.94
5.37
59.64
62.96
8.84
7.86
0.98
4.26
4.58
0.16
-11.43
56.27
-0.24
56.03
65.96
0.97
5.08
59.91
62.96
9.19
8.35
0.84
4.06
5.14
0.17
-9.12
59.15
0.38
59.53
66.43
1.09
5.19
60.15
63.41
8.76
7.89
0.87
4.29
4.47
0.19
4.08
72.14
-0.19
71.96
61.83
1.03
6.16
54.64
59.12
10.25
9.07
1.18
3.11
7.13
0.18
-0.01
66.42
-0.29
66.13
65.51
1.03
5.37
59.10
62.57
9.68
8.68
1.00
4.25
5.43
0.17
-0.17
68.00
-0.65
67.35
66.12
1.04
5.28
59.80
63.12
9.33
8.36
0.97
4.29
5.03
0.18
-0.52
67.82
0.01
67.83
7.33
5.73
17.12
19.11
3.62
1.43
0.09
54.42
3.76
4.24
17.01
27.66
3.66
1.52
0.09
57.93
16.73
10.46
18.53
17.62
3.75
1.81
0.09
68.99
26.14
14.65
20.23
16.79
3.77
2.20
0.09
83.87
7.30
5.65
17.53
20.10
3.90
1.50
0.09
56.07
3.58
3.93
17.13
28.34
3.90
1.61
0.09
58.58
17.41
10.58
18.68
18.54
3.90
1.89
0.09
71.10
25.61
14.43
20.17
17.31
3.90
2.33
0.09
83.85
6.70
5.54
17.62
20.61
3.89
1.59
0.09
56.03
3.62
3.95
17.38
28.98
3.89
1.60
0.09
59.53
17.43
10.65
19.07
18.91
3.92
1.89
0.09
71.96
13.57
8.79
18.08
20.21
3.65
1.73
0.09
66.13
13.56
8.68
18.38
20.97
3.87
1.80
0.09
67.35
13.32
8.63
18.56
21.47
3.90
1.85
0.09
67.83
2,741
962
1,330
450
3,500
1,092
1,913
495
3,107
1,077
1,591
439
1,581
738
618
225
2,527
987
1,189
351
3,494
1,129
1,886
479
3,166
1,090
1,666
410
1,851
800
776
275
2,891
1,062
1,407
422
3,730
1,179
2,055
496
3,355
1,126
1,778
452
3,107
1,077
1,591
439
3,166
1,090
1,666
410
3,355
1,126
1,778
452
2010
Year
2011
1st
2012
- = no data available
(a) Marketed production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico.
(b) The balancing item represents the difference between the sum of the components of natural gas supply and the sum of components of natural gas demand.
(c) Natural gas used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(d) For a list of States in each inventory region refer toMethodology for EIA Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Estimates (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/methodology.html).
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
LNG: liquefied natural gas.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; and Electric Power Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
1st
Wholesale/Spot
U.S. Average Wellhead ......
Henry Hub Spot Price ........
Residential
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
Commercial
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
Industrial
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
4.79
5.30
4.07
4.45
4.11
4.41
3.67
3.91
4.06
4.31
4.10
4.50
4.04
4.33
3.91
4.31
4.01
4.48
3.87
4.31
4.03
4.46
4.46
4.93
4.15
4.52
4.03
4.36
4.09
4.55
14.33
12.79
9.54
9.09
12.61
10.50
9.72
9.24
10.43
10.59
15.56
15.17
12.24
11.89
18.74
14.81
13.93
9.83
10.47
12.54
17.73
18.46
16.66
16.50
24.07
17.75
18.19
13.03
11.10
15.47
14.29
12.74
9.37
9.34
12.28
10.73
10.22
9.25
9.89
10.56
13.99
11.85
8.87
8.84
11.97
9.91
8.60
8.87
9.98
9.97
14.14
13.93
10.92
11.16
17.67
13.65
14.38
9.70
10.65
11.91
17.43
18.34
16.38
17.17
24.67
18.24
18.65
13.06
10.65
16.09
14.85
14.28
10.31
9.58
15.29
12.69
11.26
9.47
10.12
11.77
14.33
13.00
9.46
8.89
13.33
11.88
10.10
8.49
10.25
10.79
15.27
14.33
11.56
11.54
17.96
14.95
14.24
9.32
10.21
12.45
18.20
18.38
16.86
17.77
24.94
19.16
19.08
13.28
11.00
16.44
15.58
14.51
11.17
10.37
16.18
13.60
12.08
9.96
10.85
12.44
14.78
13.46
10.24
9.91
13.71
11.33
10.94
9.63
10.37
11.18
14.52
13.28
10.03
9.85
14.45
11.55
10.77
9.52
10.24
11.22
15.12
13.98
10.68
10.16
15.49
13.10
11.87
9.42
10.50
11.93
11.68
10.76
8.85
8.36
10.53
9.42
8.48
8.33
9.48
9.30
11.68
9.77
9.24
8.38
10.74
10.12
9.06
8.11
8.97
9.25
11.45
9.51
9.67
9.54
10.74
10.23
9.17
8.89
9.21
9.63
11.01
9.70
8.14
7.70
9.50
9.08
7.62
8.12
9.10
8.66
11.14
9.85
8.42
7.92
9.80
8.80
7.34
7.99
9.15
8.74
10.71
9.74
8.91
8.37
10.83
9.51
8.72
7.91
9.06
9.16
11.42
9.92
9.47
9.54
11.18
10.54
9.46
8.64
8.84
9.81
11.93
10.90
8.80
7.97
11.09
10.54
8.89
8.51
9.16
9.66
11.98
10.59
8.77
8.06
10.77
9.97
8.23
8.27
9.05
9.41
12.10
10.13
9.22
8.25
11.05
10.45
8.60
8.13
8.48
9.46
12.15
9.95
9.66
9.79
11.38
10.92
9.46
9.03
8.79
9.96
12.59
11.05
9.32
8.48
11.49
11.16
9.42
8.80
9.66
10.08
11.47
10.15
8.76
8.28
10.28
9.51
8.48
8.29
9.21
9.14
11.30
10.14
8.69
8.13
10.63
9.55
8.29
8.20
9.08
9.22
12.17
10.56
9.06
8.34
11.12
10.46
8.77
8.48
9.05
9.69
11.41
10.04
7.98
6.73
7.61
7.21
5.58
7.32
7.77
6.51
9.74
9.01
7.01
5.65
6.14
5.64
4.36
6.36
7.01
4.98
9.07
9.01
6.96
5.59
6.28
5.61
4.59
6.59
7.01
5.07
10.21
9.54
6.88
5.74
6.09
5.44
3.98
6.40
6.92
4.89
10.67
9.58
7.39
6.28
6.52
5.83
4.24
6.81
7.23
5.41
9.87
9.10
7.18
5.64
6.41
5.79
4.56
6.35
7.13
5.21
10.24
8.93
7.33
5.40
7.17
6.43
4.78
6.91
7.01
5.40
11.31
10.23
7.25
5.94
7.53
6.95
4.54
7.79
7.95
5.67
12.02
10.06
7.62
6.42
7.45
7.14
4.54
7.86
7.78
5.89
11.18
8.64
7.17
5.30
6.76
6.24
4.67
6.75
6.40
5.31
10.64
8.61
7.41
5.51
7.30
6.71
4.81
7.13
6.39
5.42
12.01
10.60
7.85
6.34
8.10
7.53
4.99
8.11
7.97
6.10
10.37
9.60
7.38
6.01
6.61
6.06
4.62
6.72
7.21
5.40
10.64
9.58
7.30
5.84
6.94
6.27
4.54
6.98
7.35
5.43
11.63
9.74
7.58
5.97
7.43
6.94
4.76
7.54
7.24
5.70
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130.
Natural gas Henry Hub spot price from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
265.3
84.4
37.7
143.3
-2.4
4.8
17.8
14.2
3.6
249.9
265.1
84.4
37.8
142.8
1.5
5.1
22.0
15.6
6.4
249.7
278.2
83.5
41.4
153.3
6.2
4.7
21.1
13.0
8.0
268.0
276.6
83.8
40.7
152.1
0.3
4.8
20.9
13.3
7.6
260.8
273.6
87.3
41.5
144.8
4.8
3.4
26.6
17.2
9.5
255.2
258.1
84.2
38.3
135.7
-1.7
4.0
26.2
17.9
8.4
236.8
262.7
83.7
38.4
140.5
1.0
5.2
22.6
15.4
7.1
259.7
272.1
88.0
39.6
144.5
1.2
4.8
22.1
15.1
7.0
256.0
276.0
82.5
39.2
154.3
-4.6
4.5
18.7
14.6
4.1
257.1
256.6
79.0
36.7
140.9
0.5
4.4
22.2
15.3
7.0
239.2
269.1
82.9
36.5
149.7
3.8
5.2
21.6
13.5
8.1
256.5
267.9
82.8
36.8
148.3
-0.2
4.8
20.7
13.7
7.0
251.7
1085.3
336.1
157.6
591.6
5.6
19.4
81.7
56.1
25.6
1028.5
1066.5
343.2
157.7
565.6
5.2
17.3
97.5
65.5
32.0
1007.6
1069.6
327.2
149.2
593.2
-0.5
18.9
83.3
57.1
26.2
1004.6
13.1
3.1
266.1
-3.8
3.3
249.1
18.1
3.2
289.4
-12.5
3.2
251.6
9.2
3.2
267.6
-5.7
3.2
234.2
13.2
3.2
276.1
-4.6
3.2
254.6
7.0
3.2
267.4
-10.1
3.2
232.3
12.5
3.2
272.2
-4.6
3.2
250.3
14.9
12.7
1056.1
12.1
12.7
1032.5
4.7
12.8
1022.1
4.9
246.3
13.4
1.0
12.4
264.6
5.4
229.8
12.3
0.6
11.7
247.4
5.5
267.9
12.8
0.6
12.1
286.1
5.4
231.6
13.2
0.8
12.4
250.1
5.9
235.1
13.4
1.1
12.3
254.5
5.7
221.4
12.4
0.6
11.8
239.5
6.7
256.7
12.7
0.6
12.1
276.1
6.4
235.2
13.0
0.8
12.2
254.6
6.3
247.4
13.6
1.0
12.6
267.4
6.0
213.4
13.0
0.8
12.1
232.3
6.6
252.8
12.7
0.8
11.9
272.2
6.2
230.7
13.3
1.2
12.1
250.3
21.1
975.6
51.6
3.1
48.5
1048.3
24.7
948.4
51.5
3.1
48.3
1024.6
25.1
944.4
52.6
3.9
48.7
1022.1
1.5
1.7
3.2
1.4
13.1
-5.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.8
7.8
0.0
48.7
187.8
181.1
4.3
2.0
42.4
169.7
162.8
4.5
1.9
42.2
182.2
175.2
4.5
1.9
37.3
172.9
167.0
3.8
1.6
39.1
178.7
172.0
4.1
2.1
38.1
165.4
158.3
4.6
2.0
36.9
170.1
162.5
4.9
2.1
41.5
163.1
156.4
4.2
1.8
41.0
173.2
165.9
4.5
2.2
37.2
160.7
152.9
5.1
2.2
37.4
165.3
157.2
5.4
2.2
42.2
182.2
175.2
4.5
1.9
36.9
170.1
162.5
4.9
2.1
37.4
165.3
157.2
5.4
2.2
5.58
5.58
5.59
5.60
5.57
5.57
5.57
5.57
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.59
5.57
5.70
0.234
0.253
0.245
0.237
0.257
0.261
0.263
0.248
0.261
0.272
0.262
0.249
0.242
0.257
0.261
2.26
2.26
2.28
2.25
2.35
2.42
2.40
2.34
2.41
2.39
2.36
2.32
2.26
2.38
2.37
Discrepancy (c)
- = no data available
(a) Waste coal includes waste coal and cloal slurry reprocessed into briquettes.
(b) Coal used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(c) The discrepancy reflects an unaccounted-for shipper and receiver reporting difference, assumed to be zero in the forecast period.
(d) Primary stocks are held at the mines and distribution points.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Quarterly Coal Report , DOE/EIA-0121; and Electric Power Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2011
2012
2010
Year
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2012
12.65
12.22
0.40
0.02
0.06
12.71
0.70
10.58
10.19
0.37
0.02
0.04
10.62
0.70
11.04
10.65
0.37
0.02
0.08
11.12
0.52
10.94
10.55
0.37
0.02
0.10
11.05
0.91
12.62
12.19
0.41
0.02
0.14
12.76
0.78
10.72
10.32
0.38
0.02
0.09
10.81
0.75
11.29
10.87
0.40
0.02
0.09
11.38
0.59
11.04
10.63
0.39
0.02
0.08
11.13
0.90
12.70
12.26
0.42
0.02
0.11
12.81
0.80
10.90
10.49
0.39
0.02
0.07
10.98
0.75
11.29
10.88
0.38
0.02
0.07
11.36
0.72
11.33
10.93
0.38
0.02
0.11
11.44
0.74
11.49
11.06
0.40
0.02
0.09
11.57
0.76
11.62
4.74
4.09
2.76
0.02
0.39
12.01
9.56
3.48
3.45
2.61
0.02
0.36
9.92
10.25
4.15
3.45
2.62
0.02
0.35
10.60
9.78
3.50
3.60
2.66
0.02
0.35
10.13
11.59
4.64
4.15
2.79
0.02
0.39
11.98
9.69
3.51
3.51
2.65
0.02
0.37
10.06
10.40
4.19
3.53
2.67
0.02
0.38
10.78
9.85
3.42
3.65
2.76
0.02
0.37
10.23
11.61
4.57
4.17
2.85
0.02
0.40
12.01
9.86
3.57
3.58
2.69
0.02
0.37
10.23
10.27
3.97
3.64
2.64
0.02
0.37
10.64
10.33
3.95
3.68
2.68
0.02
0.37
10.70
10.43
3.94
3.73
2.74
0.02
0.38
10.82
2.28
4.88
12.36
16.18
2.25
4.69
14.19
17.94
2.35
5.05
15.88
20.99
2.42
4.92
18.42
23.64
2.40
4.98
18.06
22.95
2.34
4.97
17.79
22.93
2.41
5.17
18.37
23.26
2.39
4.93
18.73
23.31
2.36
5.04
18.91
23.74
2.32
5.52
19.08
24.12
2.26
5.08
12.63
16.60
2.38
4.98
17.70
22.60
2.37
5.15
18.78
23.63
12.02
10.71
7.17
11.50
10.06
6.67
11.24
10.01
6.68
12.03
10.40
6.85
12.34
10.88
7.41
11.71
10.31
6.84
11.26
10.20
6.70
12.21
10.58
6.87
12.51
11.09
7.33
11.89
10.41
6.85
11.58
10.26
6.79
11.85
10.42
6.95
11.97
10.59
6.94
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) Includes transmission and distribution losses, data collection time-frame differences, and estimation error.
(c) Direct Use represents commercial and industrial facility use of onsite net electricity generation; and electrical sales or transfers to adjacent or colocated facilities
for which revenue information is not available. See Table 7.6 of the EIA Monthly Energy Review .
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 7b. U.S. Regional Electricity Retail Sales (Million Kilowatthours per Day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
1st
Residential Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Commercial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Industrial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Total All Sectors (a)
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
141
394
579
337
1,129
405
595
243
424
15
4,261
114
326
456
250
878
291
514
227
346
13
3,414
150
444
639
350
1,232
428
771
325
391
13
4,742
122
335
481
261
891
294
467
225
390
15
3,482
145
405
577
331
1,042
373
574
248
441
15
4,152
115
330
457
256
897
295
560
225
350
13
3,499
145
426
626
357
1,165
405
793
312
395
13
4,635
123
339
488
271
879
287
475
233
398
15
3,507
146
407
583
334
1,069
374
561
252
445
15
4,188
116
330
458
258
862
287
511
233
355
13
3,424
143
417
607
350
1,155
399
763
318
403
14
4,569
125
344
492
276
890
297
488
239
404
15
3,570
132
375
539
300
1,032
354
587
255
388
14
3,975
132
375
537
304
996
340
601
254
396
14
3,948
132
375
535
305
994
339
581
261
402
14
3,938
123
443
490
266
792
220
442
234
420
17
3,447
120
434
491
267
852
228
479
251
432
16
3,571
137
506
555
302
965
271
578
285
478
17
4,092
119
425
481
261
804
213
450
241
442
17
3,453
123
435
497
268
789
216
447
237
425
18
3,454
119
425
492
265
868
228
501
251
437
17
3,603
138
503
563
307
980
270
593
287
487
17
4,146
121
431
486
266
822
215
460
248
447
18
3,514
128
452
505
272
816
219
448
240
430
17
3,527
121
434
504
272
872
225
498
258
445
17
3,647
139
503
556
308
995
272
592
293
495
18
4,171
123
436
497
270
846
217
467
252
452
18
3,579
125
452
504
274
853
233
487
253
443
17
3,642
125
449
509
276
865
232
500
256
449
17
3,680
128
457
516
280
883
233
501
261
456
17
3,732
76
178
523
222
360
336
397
195
214
13
2,514
77
186
544
235
397
334
432
209
228
14
2,655
83
192
551
245
406
334
464
232
245
14
2,765
76
181
534
233
379
334
421
207
229
14
2,607
75
195
539
233
377
343
420
204
221
14
2,620
76
189
533
234
401
324
443
213
232
14
2,657
81
195
549
247
406
336
472
239
251
14
2,789
76
184
537
239
382
346
433
212
229
14
2,652
76
187
548
239
385
354
432
207
224
13
2,667
78
192
555
245
408
351
460
226
234
14
2,762
80
198
563
257
414
354
477
242
252
14
2,850
77
186
540
246
386
358
437
215
226
14
2,686
78
184
538
234
385
334
429
211
229
14
2,636
77
190
539
238
392
337
442
217
233
14
2,680
78
191
552
247
398
354
451
223
234
14
2,741
342
1,027
1,594
825
2,286
960
1,433
672
1,061
45
10,246
312
957
1,492
752
2,130
854
1,425
687
1,008
43
9,660
371
1,152
1,746
897
2,606
1,032
1,813
842
1,117
44
11,620
318
952
1,498
755
2,078
842
1,338
673
1,063
45
9,562
345
1,047
1,614
832
2,211
932
1,441
688
1,089
46
10,247
311
955
1,483
755
2,170
847
1,503
689
1,021
44
9,779
366
1,135
1,739
911
2,554
1,010
1,857
838
1,136
45
11,592
322
965
1,512
776
2,087
849
1,368
693
1,076
46
9,694
351
1,060
1,638
845
2,274
947
1,442
700
1,101
46
10,404
317
968
1,519
775
2,146
863
1,469
717
1,036
44
9,854
364
1,131
1,728
915
2,568
1,024
1,832
853
1,153
46
11,614
326
979
1,531
791
2,126
872
1,392
707
1,085
47
9,856
336
1,022
1,583
808
2,275
922
1,503
719
1,063
45
10,274
336
1,026
1,587
819
2,256
909
1,543
727
1,081
45
10,330
339
1,035
1,604
832
2,279
927
1,534
744
1,094
46
10,434
- = no data available
(a) Total retail sales to all sectors includes residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sector sales.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Retail Sales represents total retail electricity sales by electric utilities and power marketers.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
16.56
14.82
10.50
8.33
10.46
8.81
10.28
9.71
12.03
10.88
16.60
16.16
11.88
10.08
11.31
9.90
11.00
10.83
12.47
11.90
16.46
16.65
11.82
10.61
11.42
10.02
10.79
11.22
13.37
12.02
16.43
15.39
11.38
9.45
10.94
10.05
10.46
9.97
12.20
11.50
15.99
15.20
11.01
9.06
10.86
9.77
10.08
9.76
12.02
11.24
16.38
16.24
12.03
10.48
11.53
10.41
10.91
10.84
12.36
12.03
16.62
17.13
12.10
10.81
11.87
10.44
11.09
11.31
13.51
12.34
16.57
15.54
11.57
9.51
11.41
10.30
10.55
10.31
11.93
11.71
16.74
15.20
10.99
8.95
10.81
9.56
10.33
9.95
11.86
11.26
17.00
16.58
12.21
10.49
11.60
10.48
11.05
11.07
12.57
12.21
16.89
17.56
12.25
10.95
11.93
10.49
11.13
11.50
13.90
12.51
16.82
15.97
11.72
9.66
11.50
10.38
10.63
10.49
12.28
11.89
16.51
15.79
11.39
9.61
11.03
9.66
10.64
10.50
12.51
11.58
16.38
16.06
11.68
9.98
11.43
10.22
10.70
10.61
12.45
11.85
16.86
16.34
11.78
10.01
11.47
10.21
10.82
10.80
12.64
11.97
15.27
13.23
9.17
7.08
9.13
8.86
8.95
8.20
10.78
9.87
14.71
13.93
9.51
7.93
9.33
9.33
8.80
9.04
12.20
10.30
15.33
14.60
9.59
8.60
9.42
9.54
8.74
9.25
14.05
10.71
14.46
13.43
9.28
7.58
9.35
9.75
8.53
8.40
11.40
10.06
14.41
13.23
9.29
7.60
9.45
9.67
8.57
8.32
10.97
10.01
14.82
13.72
9.60
8.42
9.58
9.81
8.72
9.01
12.18
10.40
14.75
14.87
9.67
8.76
9.79
9.86
8.94
9.28
13.93
10.88
14.45
13.60
9.39
7.64
9.82
9.76
8.74
8.79
11.71
10.31
15.25
13.58
9.22
7.54
9.57
9.47
9.17
8.46
11.06
10.20
15.09
14.09
9.60
8.45
9.67
10.00
9.03
9.14
12.49
10.58
15.24
15.24
9.75
8.98
9.93
10.04
9.10
9.39
14.35
11.09
14.80
13.73
9.48
7.75
9.90
9.94
8.79
8.80
11.81
10.41
14.96
13.83
9.40
7.83
9.31
9.38
8.75
8.76
12.17
10.26
14.61
13.90
9.50
8.13
9.67
9.78
8.76
8.87
12.26
10.42
15.10
14.19
9.52
8.21
9.78
9.87
9.02
8.97
12.49
10.59
12.33
8.50
6.34
5.43
6.45
5.31
6.08
5.69
7.29
6.53
12.91
8.52
6.48
5.74
6.53
5.85
6.00
6.17
7.84
6.75
12.78
8.71
6.71
6.45
7.00
6.33
6.14
6.87
8.73
7.17
12.62
8.30
6.52
5.67
6.54
5.97
5.80
5.65
7.68
6.67
12.68
8.62
6.41
5.75
6.53
5.85
5.77
5.60
7.43
6.68
11.64
8.69
6.50
6.18
6.83
6.20
5.92
6.01
7.70
6.85
12.78
9.18
7.03
6.81
7.52
6.64
6.23
6.59
8.65
7.41
12.72
8.38
6.67
5.88
6.92
6.11
5.90
5.78
7.80
6.84
12.83
8.46
6.48
5.71
6.67
5.87
5.99
5.78
7.39
6.70
11.67
8.78
6.54
6.18
6.79
6.16
5.96
6.22
7.83
6.87
12.64
9.00
6.87
6.72
7.34
6.53
6.15
6.85
8.79
7.33
12.71
8.39
6.58
5.82
6.94
6.12
5.87
5.96
7.99
6.85
12.66
8.51
6.51
5.84
6.64
5.87
6.01
6.13
7.91
6.79
12.46
8.72
6.66
6.16
6.96
6.20
5.96
6.02
7.92
6.95
12.46
8.66
6.62
6.12
6.94
6.17
6.00
6.23
8.02
6.94
15.12
13.01
8.72
7.14
9.37
7.60
8.71
8.02
10.57
9.47
14.92
13.63
9.13
7.96
9.63
8.16
8.74
8.76
11.30
9.89
15.19
14.40
9.50
8.80
9.99
8.70
8.95
9.35
12.64
10.40
14.74
13.13
8.97
7.64
9.52
8.36
8.35
8.08
10.89
9.66
14.66
13.13
8.94
7.66
9.62
8.30
8.35
8.03
10.76
9.66
14.59
13.58
9.23
8.42
9.88
8.64
8.71
8.68
11.21
10.02
15.03
14.73
9.71
9.03
10.38
9.02
9.17
9.27
12.60
10.63
14.82
13.27
9.12
7.75
9.96
8.45
8.47
8.38
10.95
9.87
15.32
13.27
8.93
7.58
9.67
8.16
8.67
8.20
10.63
9.73
14.92
13.86
9.27
8.41
9.90
8.60
8.77
8.85
11.46
10.11
15.29
14.97
9.69
9.10
10.42
9.00
9.18
9.46
12.96
10.73
15.05
13.47
9.17
7.81
10.04
8.52
8.52
8.51
11.18
9.97
15.00
13.58
9.09
7.91
9.64
8.21
8.71
8.60
11.37
9.88
14.79
13.72
9.27
8.24
9.98
8.62
8.71
8.63
11.40
10.07
15.15
13.92
9.27
8.25
10.02
8.58
8.81
8.79
11.58
10.16
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Volume-weighted average of retail prices to residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric
Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 7d. U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel and Sector (Billion Kilowatthours per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2011
2010
Electric Power Sector (a)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Other Gases ................................
Petroleum ....................................
Residual Fuel Oil .......................
Distillate Fuel Oil .......................
Petroleum Coke ........................
Other Petroleum .......................
Nuclear ........................................
Pumped Storage Hydroelectric .....
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Renewables:
Conventional Hydroelectric ........
Geothermal ...............................
Solar .........................................
Wind .........................................
Wood and Wood Waste ............
Other Renewables ....................
Subtotal Electric Power Sector .....
Commercial Sector (c)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Petroleum ....................................
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Renewables (d) ............................
Subtotal Commercial Sector .........
Industrial Sector (c)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Other Gases ................................
Petroleum ....................................
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Renewables:
Conventional Hydroelectric ........
Wood and Wood Waste ............
Other Renewables (e) ...............
Subtotal Industrial Sector .............
Total All Sectors ...........................
2011
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
5.172
2.135
0.009
0.084
0.029
0.015
0.035
0.005
2.230
-0.016
0.020
4.443
2.504
0.010
0.086
0.035
0.014
0.034
0.003
2.181
-0.015
0.021
5.174
3.536
0.010
0.101
0.047
0.014
0.036
0.003
2.321
-0.019
0.021
4.753
2.340
0.009
0.080
0.027
0.016
0.034
0.003
2.152
-0.015
0.020
5.017
2.461
0.008
0.094
0.039
0.020
0.033
0.002
2.211
-0.011
0.019
4.850
2.547
0.008
0.085
0.034
0.016
0.033
0.003
2.136
-0.015
0.019
4.886
2.631
0.009
0.088
0.034
0.015
0.035
0.004
2.221
-0.016
0.021
0.611
0.045
0.002
0.321
0.030
0.046
10.315
0.754
0.045
0.003
0.354
0.032
0.047
10.870
0.865
0.044
0.010
0.403
0.029
0.050
10.632
0.667
0.046
0.010
0.307
0.034
0.053
12.261
0.643
0.045
0.003
0.376
0.033
0.049
10.489
0.700
0.043
0.004
0.259
0.032
0.044
10.880
0.852
0.045
0.005
0.321
0.029
0.046
10.929
0.732
0.045
0.006
0.360
0.032
0.050
11.065
0.003
0.014
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.024
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.022
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.022
0.003
0.011
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.022
0.003
0.014
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.024
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.022
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.023
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.022
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.022
0.048
0.211
0.021
0.006
0.007
0.054
0.230
0.025
0.006
0.002
0.050
0.216
0.023
0.006
0.002
0.052
0.227
0.024
0.006
0.002
0.051
0.221
0.023
0.006
0.002
0.055
0.237
0.026
0.006
0.002
0.051
0.220
0.024
0.006
0.002
0.051
0.216
0.023
0.006
0.010
0.050
0.217
0.023
0.006
0.005
0.052
0.226
0.024
0.006
0.002
0.006
0.067
0.002
0.370
10.941
0.003
0.075
0.002
0.406
12.622
0.004
0.073
0.002
0.384
10.721
0.006
0.072
0.002
0.399
11.291
0.006
0.070
0.002
0.389
11.043
0.003
0.077
0.002
0.418
12.703
0.004
0.075
0.002
0.392
10.903
0.004
0.072
0.002
0.385
11.288
0.005
0.070
0.002
0.382
11.333
0.005
0.074
0.002
0.400
11.487
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5.181
2.011
0.009
0.094
0.034
0.023
0.034
0.003
2.249
-0.008
0.017
4.750
2.306
0.009
0.095
0.042
0.016
0.034
0.002
2.116
-0.008
0.020
5.450
3.329
0.008
0.111
0.054
0.019
0.035
0.002
2.314
-0.015
0.020
4.688
2.188
0.006
0.078
0.027
0.020
0.028
0.003
2.164
-0.014
0.019
4.887
2.059
0.008
0.082
0.025
0.017
0.037
0.003
2.258
-0.011
0.017
4.511
2.418
0.009
0.081
0.034
0.016
0.029
0.002
1.944
-0.015
0.019
5.192
3.428
0.009
0.103
0.050
0.015
0.034
0.003
2.248
-0.018
0.020
4.806
2.273
0.008
0.075
0.025
0.014
0.033
0.003
2.093
-0.015
0.020
0.697
0.044
0.001
0.235
0.032
0.042
10.605
0.797
0.043
0.005
0.291
0.029
0.045
10.497
0.658
0.042
0.005
0.221
0.034
0.044
12.221
0.647
0.043
0.002
0.290
0.030
0.045
10.187
0.900
0.046
0.003
0.329
0.030
0.042
10.650
1.081
0.045
0.007
0.374
0.025
0.049
10.549
0.818
0.045
0.007
0.261
0.031
0.048
12.192
0.003
0.011
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.022
0.003
0.011
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.022
0.003
0.014
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.025
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.022
0.003
0.011
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.022
0.002
0.011
0.000
0.002
0.005
0.022
0.052
0.216
0.022
0.007
0.009
0.047
0.211
0.023
0.007
0.010
0.055
0.228
0.024
0.007
0.011
0.048
0.211
0.022
0.006
0.009
0.049
0.209
0.022
0.006
0.008
0.006
0.072
0.002
0.384
11.011
0.005
0.072
0.002
0.377
10.897
0.003
0.075
0.002
0.404
12.650
0.004
0.072
0.002
0.374
10.583
0.005
0.067
0.002
0.368
11.039
1st
- = no data available
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) "Other" includes non-biogenic municipal solid waste, batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, tires and miscellaneous technologies.
(c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants.
(d) "Renewables" in commercial sector includes wood, black liquor, other wood waste, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass,
geothermal, solar thermal, photovoltaic energy and wind.
(e) "Other Renewables" in industrial sector includes black liquor, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass, geothermal, solar thermal,
photovoltaic energy and wind.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Values of 0.000 may indicate positive levels of generation that are less than 0.0005 billion kilowatthours per day.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual ,
DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2nd
2011
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
2.72
15.48
0.17
0.06
0.04
0.07
0.01
2.51
18.25
0.17
0.07
0.03
0.07
0.00
2.90
26.72
0.20
0.09
0.04
0.07
0.00
2.51
16.78
0.14
0.04
0.04
0.05
0.01
2.60
15.83
0.15
0.04
0.03
0.07
0.00
2.42
19.18
0.15
0.06
0.03
0.05
0.00
2.78
27.23
0.19
0.09
0.03
0.07
0.01
2.54
17.44
0.14
0.04
0.03
0.06
0.01
2.71
16.16
0.15
0.05
0.03
0.07
0.01
2.33
19.56
0.16
0.06
0.03
0.07
0.01
2.74
27.80
0.18
0.08
0.03
0.07
0.01
2.50
17.78
0.14
0.04
0.03
0.06
0.01
2.66
19.33
0.17
0.07
0.04
0.06
0.00
2.59
19.94
0.16
0.06
0.03
0.06
0.00
2.57
20.34
0.16
0.06
0.03
0.07
0.01
0.00
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.02
1.48
0.01
0.02
1.44
0.01
0.02
1.57
0.01
0.02
1.44
0.01
0.02
1.48
0.01
0.02
1.46
0.01
0.02
1.58
0.01
0.02
1.47
0.01
0.02
1.61
0.01
0.02
1.52
0.01
0.02
1.63
0.01
0.02
1.50
0.01
0.02
1.48
0.01
0.02
1.50
0.01
0.02
1.56
0.01
2.75
17.05
0.18
2.53
19.79
0.18
2.93
28.40
0.21
2.53
18.32
0.15
2.62
17.40
0.16
2.44
20.73
0.15
2.80
28.91
0.20
2.57
19.01
0.14
2.73
17.87
0.16
2.36
21.17
0.16
2.76
29.54
0.19
2.52
19.37
0.15
2.68
20.91
0.18
2.61
21.54
0.16
2.59
22.00
0.17
175.2
16.7
17.1
5.4
167.0
15.6
16.8
2.8
172.0
15.6
16.6
3.1
158.3
14.4
16.8
3.3
162.5
12.8
17.0
3.1
156.4
13.2
16.5
3.2
165.9
15.0
16.5
3.1
152.9
14.6
16.7
3.1
157.2
14.0
16.9
3.0
175.2
16.7
17.1
5.4
162.5
12.8
17.0
3.1
157.2
14.0
16.9
3.0
- = no data available
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) Petroleum category may include petroleum coke, which is converted from short tons to barrels by multiplying by 5.
(c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Physical Units: mmst/d = million short tons per day; mmb/d = million barrels per day; bcf/d = billion cubic feet per day; mmb = million barrels.
Values of 0.00 may indicate positive levels of fuel consumption that are less than 0.005 units per day.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2nd
2011
3rd
2012
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
0.618
0.053
0.025
0.208
0.490
0.270
0.011
0.110
1.786
0.713
0.053
0.029
0.261
0.491
0.275
0.012
0.115
1.949
0.593
0.053
0.029
0.200
0.508
0.284
0.010
0.114
1.792
0.585
0.054
0.026
0.263
0.497
0.298
0.007
0.115
1.844
0.795
0.055
0.026
0.292
0.478
0.293
0.014
0.111
2.065
0.972
0.084
0.030
0.335
0.474
0.289
0.024
0.121
2.325
0.744
0.102
0.030
0.237
0.515
0.289
0.026
0.124
2.070
0.558
0.101
0.026
0.291
0.508
0.293
0.027
0.118
1.922
0.682
0.101
0.027
0.317
0.503
0.291
0.026
0.118
2.066
0.781
0.099
0.033
0.362
0.487
0.292
0.026
0.125
2.206
0.608
0.103
0.033
0.278
0.531
0.296
0.027
0.132
2.009
0.587
0.103
0.027
0.341
0.520
0.296
0.028
0.124
2.025
2.509
0.212
0.109
0.933
1.986
1.128
0.039
0.454
7.371
3.069
0.343
0.113
1.155
1.976
1.164
0.091
0.473
8.382
2.658
0.406
0.119
1.298
2.042
1.175
0.107
0.500
8.305
0.618
0.038
0.001
0.208
0.048
0.060
0.975
0.715
0.038
0.005
0.261
0.044
0.064
1.127
0.596
0.038
0.005
0.200
0.049
0.063
0.952
0.587
0.039
0.002
0.263
0.046
0.064
1.001
0.798
0.041
0.003
0.292
0.045
0.061
1.239
0.970
0.070
0.006
0.335
0.037
0.070
1.480
0.741
0.087
0.006
0.237
0.047
0.070
1.188
0.554
0.086
0.002
0.291
0.046
0.067
1.046
0.676
0.087
0.003
0.317
0.049
0.068
1.199
0.775
0.085
0.009
0.362
0.044
0.072
1.346
0.605
0.088
0.009
0.278
0.052
0.076
1.108
0.583
0.088
0.003
0.341
0.050
0.072
1.136
2.516
0.153
0.013
0.933
0.189
0.252
4.055
3.063
0.284
0.017
1.155
0.175
0.267
4.953
2.639
0.347
0.023
1.298
0.194
0.288
4.790
0.005
0.001
0.321
0.041
0.372
0.005
0.001
0.324
0.042
0.376
0.003
0.001
0.335
0.042
0.385
0.003
0.001
0.326
0.042
0.378
0.005
0.001
0.312
0.041
0.363
0.005
0.001
0.315
0.043
0.368
0.003
0.001
0.346
0.045
0.399
0.004
0.001
0.340
0.044
0.393
0.005
0.001
0.332
0.042
0.385
0.006
0.001
0.322
0.045
0.378
0.003
0.001
0.357
0.047
0.412
0.004
0.001
0.348
0.044
0.401
0.016
0.004
1.307
0.168
1.511
0.016
0.004
1.313
0.173
1.522
0.018
0.004
1.359
0.179
1.576
0.000
0.005
0.017
0.008
0.031
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.009
0.033
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032
0.000
0.005
0.017
0.008
0.031
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.029
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.009
0.027
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.026
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.026
0.000
0.005
0.017
0.008
0.026
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.009
0.027
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.027
0.001
0.019
0.070
0.034
0.127
0.001
0.018
0.071
0.033
0.114
0.001
0.018
0.071
0.033
0.106
0.009
0.104
0.024
0.136
0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138
0.009
0.106
0.024
0.140
0.009
0.106
0.024
0.140
0.009
0.104
0.024
0.136
0.009
0.104
0.024
0.138
0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138
0.009
0.104
0.024
0.138
0.009
0.104
0.024
0.138
0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138
0.009
0.104
0.024
0.138
0.009
0.104
0.024
0.138
0.037
0.420
0.097
0.554
0.037
0.417
0.096
0.550
0.037
0.418
0.096
0.551
0.251
0.009
0.275
0.011
0.280
0.010
0.284
0.008
0.263
0.015
0.275
0.024
0.274
0.024
0.282
0.025
0.274
0.026
0.285
0.026
0.284
0.027
0.287
0.027
1.091
0.039
1.094
0.088
1.129
0.106
1.770
1.951
1.796
1.843
2.036
2.303
2.054
1.910
2.047
2.199
1.996
2.016
7.360
8.304
8.258
- = no data available
(a) Conventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy.
(b) Fuel ethanol and biodiesel supply represents domestic production only. Fuel ethanol and biodiesel consumption in the transportation sector includes production, stock change, and imports
less exports. Some biodiesel may be consumed in the residential s
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226 and Renewable Energy Annual , DOE/EIA-0603; Petroleum
Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2011
2012
2010
Year
2011
2012
14,059
13,248
13,571
13,917
10,506
10,542
10,237
10,375
10,484
1,924
1,972
2,041
1,695
1,798
1,957
15.45
13.18
10.17
12.21
18.12
29.64
12.75
123.5
123.5
123.5
123.6
123.6
123.5
123.5
123.6
131.4
132.0
132.6
133.0
133.5
134.0
129.8
131.3
133.3
89.1
89.6
90.2
90.8
91.2
91.6
92.0
87.8
89.4
91.4
92.6
90.5
103.2
89.7
93.1
90.8
102.9
89.1
94.3
92.5
103.3
89.6
95.0
93.6
103.8
90.0
95.8
94.7
104.3
90.4
96.3
95.3
105.0
90.8
97.1
96.3
105.6
91.5
97.7
97.1
106.2
92.2
90.1
87.3
102.3
89.0
93.8
91.8
103.3
89.6
96.7
95.9
105.3
91.2
87.0
98.0
69.1
85.3
79.1
92.5
87.5
88.0
96.2
67.6
90.4
78.8
95.2
88.4
89.2
95.6
69.0
89.7
78.4
92.7
87.8
90.1
95.8
69.6
90.6
78.9
93.7
88.4
90.8
96.0
69.9
91.4
79.1
94.3
88.8
91.3
96.1
70.5
91.6
79.3
94.6
89.1
92.0
96.3
71.7
91.9
79.7
94.8
89.5
92.9
96.6
73.6
93.3
80.5
95.4
90.4
93.5
96.8
75.3
94.5
81.1
95.7
91.1
86.7
96.5
67.6
83.3
77.0
94.0
86.5
89.5
95.9
69.0
90.5
78.8
94.0
88.3
92.4
96.4
72.7
92.8
80.1
95.1
90.0
2.18
2.19
2.22
2.25
2.26
2.27
2.28
2.28
2.30
2.31
2.18
2.25
2.29
1.83
1.82
1.90
1.99
2.02
2.01
2.03
2.03
2.03
2.04
2.06
1.85
2.01
2.04
2.17
2.26
2.20
2.38
2.74
3.22
2.98
2.93
3.00
3.07
3.11
3.09
2.25
2.96
3.07
110.0
110.5
111.1
111.2
111.7
112.5
113.1
113.2
113.6
113.8
114.3
114.8
110.7
112.6
114.1
7,663
8,555
8,523
8,127
7,656
8,421
8,477
8,094
7,777
8,530
8,506
8,117
8,219
8,164
8,233
491
530
546
526
519
545
547
536
534
557
560
548
523
537
550
293
330
341
323
307
341
348
328
315
352
354
334
322
331
339
266.4
282.0
282.2
282.2
298.2
309.7
316.3
327.3
327.4
321.0
311.9
313.5
278.2
312.9
318.5
0.234
0.253
0.245
0.237
0.257
0.261
0.263
0.248
0.261
0.272
0.262
0.249
0.242
0.257
0.261
600
283
543
1,427
596
338
474
1,408
575
403
483
1,461
581
274
453
1,309
593
287
524
1,405
590
349
484
1,423
582
407
508
1,497
583
272
443
1,298
594
292
517
1,403
593
353
476
1,422
2,351
1,285
1,990
5,627
2,339
1,314
1,945
5,597
2,352
1,324
1,944
5,621
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
13,139
13,195
13,279
13,381
13,444
13,508
13,618
13,713
10,113
10,252
10,277
10,305
10,328
10,332
10,390
1,631
1,703
1,709
1,737
1,743
1,765
21.04
-3.40
29.63
25.20
37.74
123.5
123.6
123.6
123.5
129.3
130.0
129.9
87.3
87.6
1st
2nd
3rd
13,793
13,865
13,952
10,450
10,410
10,478
1,818
1,867
1,891
36.39
23.51
20.90
123.5
123.5
123.5
130.1
130.5
131.1
87.9
88.2
88.6
89.5
86.9
101.4
89.5
91.0
88.1
103.3
88.8
91.7
89.0
103.9
89.1
85.5
86.3
96.9
68.0
84.1
74.7
93.2
86.2
86.5
98.0
68.8
82.1
78.1
89.5
86.6
2.18
2.17
1.85
4th
Macroeconomic
Real Gross Domestic Product
- = no data available
(a) Natural gas share weights of individual sector indices based on EIAManufacturing Energy Consumption Survey, 2002.
(b) Total highway travel includes gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17; Federal Highway Administration;
and Federal Aviation Administration.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy and Regional Economic Information and simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2011
2012
2010
Year
2011
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
733
1,975
1,853
880
2,456
628
1,560
897
2,402
736
1,984
1,858
884
2,469
630
1,570
901
2,413
742
1,999
1,871
890
2,491
635
1,585
908
2,434
746
2,013
1,885
896
2,509
640
1,597
914
2,451
750
2,022
1,895
901
2,525
644
1,609
920
2,463
753
2,032
1,904
905
2,540
647
1,621
925
2,475
756
2,043
1,914
911
2,558
652
1,633
932
2,491
761
2,057
1,925
916
2,580
657
1,647
939
2,513
723
1,950
1,832
868
2,420
620
1,528
882
2,363
739
1,993
1,867
888
2,481
633
1,578
905
2,425
755
2,038
1,910
908
2,551
650
1,627
929
2,485
92.9
90.5
87.2
94.0
86.2
87.1
95.3
90.0
91.4
93.0
90.7
87.5
94.3
86.4
87.6
95.8
90.3
91.9
94.5
92.2
88.9
95.9
87.8
89.4
97.6
92.1
93.7
95.5
93.1
89.8
96.9
88.7
90.7
99.0
93.3
95.0
96.4
93.9
90.8
98.0
89.7
92.1
100.3
94.4
96.2
96.6
94.4
91.6
98.8
90.2
93.2
101.1
94.9
96.6
97.3
95.3
92.7
99.9
91.2
94.6
102.3
95.9
97.4
97.7
96.0
93.5
100.9
92.0
95.7
103.1
96.6
98.0
89.5
87.4
84.0
90.4
83.8
84.2
91.3
86.2
88.3
94.0
91.6
88.3
95.2
87.3
88.7
96.9
91.4
93.0
97.0
94.9
92.2
99.4
90.8
93.9
101.7
95.5
97.1
650
1,747
1,619
746
2,153
571
1,288
742
1,957
650
1,749
1,618
748
2,157
571
1,292
744
1,961
654
1,761
1,625
752
2,173
575
1,303
749
1,974
658
1,775
1,631
754
2,189
578
1,314
755
1,988
657
1,772
1,625
753
2,190
577
1,314
755
1,986
661
1,787
1,636
758
2,207
582
1,325
762
2,001
663
1,796
1,642
761
2,218
585
1,334
766
2,011
666
1,807
1,650
764
2,232
588
1,343
772
2,024
641
1,721
1,593
729
2,118
561
1,259
730
1,924
653
1,758
1,623
750
2,168
574
1,299
748
1,970
662
1,791
1,638
759
2,212
583
1,329
764
2,005
5,497
15,240
17,687
8,094
22,374
7,123
12,950
7,998
17,056
5,493
15,240
17,671
8,099
22,402
7,125
12,975
8,015
17,074
5,494
15,250
17,672
8,112
22,447
7,133
13,015
8,037
17,106
5,499
15,266
17,679
8,130
22,504
7,150
13,065
8,067
17,150
5,507
15,282
17,704
8,152
22,575
7,168
13,123
8,106
17,206
5,517
15,303
17,737
8,177
22,661
7,190
13,183
8,146
17,269
5,528
15,325
17,771
8,201
22,754
7,213
13,245
8,187
17,333
5,540
15,348
17,810
8,227
22,855
7,238
13,312
8,231
17,396
5,498
15,231
17,697
8,085
22,342
7,117
12,921
7,980
17,033
5,499
15,266
17,679
8,130
22,504
7,150
13,065
8,067
17,150
5,540
15,348
17,810
8,227
22,855
7,238
13,312
8,231
17,396
6.8
18.0
20.0
9.9
24.8
7.4
15.1
9.1
19.3
6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
24.9
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.3
6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
25.0
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.4
6.8
18.2
20.2
10.0
25.1
7.5
15.3
9.2
19.5
6.9
18.3
20.3
10.0
25.3
7.5
15.4
9.2
19.6
6.9
18.3
20.3
10.1
25.4
7.5
15.5
9.3
19.6
6.9
18.4
20.4
10.1
25.5
7.5
15.5
9.3
19.7
6.9
18.4
20.4
10.1
25.6
7.6
15.6
9.4
19.8
6.7
17.9
20.0
9.8
24.7
7.3
14.9
9.0
19.2
6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
25.0
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.4
6.9
18.4
20.4
10.1
25.4
7.5
15.5
9.3
19.7
- = no data available
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.
2012
2010
1st
2nd
Heating Degree-days
New England ................
2,948
634
Middle Atlantic ..............
2,805
477
E. N. Central .................
3,217
523
W. N. Central ................
3,475
536
South Atlantic ...............
1,804
144
E. S. Central .................
2,297
169
W. S. Central ................
1,608
79
Mountain .......................
2,313
780
Pacific ...........................
1,312
678
U.S. Average ............
2,311
422
Heating Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a)
New England ................
3,219
930
Middle Atlantic ..............
2,968
752
E. N. Central .................
3,227
798
W. N. Central ................
3,326
729
South Atlantic ...............
1,523
247
E. S. Central .................
1,895
299
W. S. Central ................
1,270
112
Mountain .......................
2,321
741
Pacific ...........................
1,419
556
U.S. Average ............
2,242
543
Cooling Degree-days
New England ................
0
129
Middle Atlantic ..............
0
261
E. N. Central .................
0
282
W. N. Central ................
1
320
South Atlantic ...............
34
772
E. S. Central .................
8
679
W. S. Central ................
27
950
Mountain .......................
11
370
Pacific ...........................
7
120
U.S. Average ............
12
445
Cooling Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a)
New England ................
0
81
Middle Atlantic ..............
0
151
E. N. Central .................
1
208
W. N. Central ................
3
270
South Atlantic ...............
113
576
E. S. Central .................
29
469
W. S. Central ................
80
790
Mountain .......................
17
383
Pacific ...........................
10
171
U.S. Average ............
34
353
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
Year
3rd
4th
2010
2011
2012
81
57
99
142
7
11
2
116
93
62
2,280
2,116
2,369
2,430
1,264
1,516
833
1,745
1,086
1,665
3,314
3,023
3,306
3,517
1,501
1,866
1,273
2,338
1,481
2,285
846
609
755
769
179
247
101
773
675
517
168
112
138
166
24
32
8
160
109
92
2,252
2,048
2,298
2,505
1,056
1,373
872
1,931
1,146
1,626
3,233
2,971
3,236
3,351
1,526
1,892
1,236
2,336
1,436
2,247
925
746
791
725
245
293
107
730
557
539
187
125
156
183
23
32
9
164
105
99
2,253
2,043
2,294
2,487
1,036
1,353
874
1,919
1,121
1,614
5,942
5,455
6,209
6,583
3,219
3,993
2,521
4,954
3,170
4,460
6,580
5,792
6,497
6,957
2,760
3,518
2,254
5,202
3,411
4,520
6,598
5,885
6,477
6,746
2,830
3,570
2,226
5,149
3,219
4,499
190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101
2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638
3,219
2,968
3,227
3,326
1,523
1,895
1,270
2,321
1,419
2,242
930
752
798
729
247
299
112
741
556
543
190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101
2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638
3,219
2,968
3,227
3,326
1,523
1,895
1,270
2,321
1,419
2,242
930
752
798
729
247
299
112
741
556
543
190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101
2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638
6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524
6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524
6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524
526
730
684
787
1,292
1,256
1,593
991
495
930
0
5
10
15
168
61
179
78
33
68
0
0
0
1
99
9
113
11
2
33
111
216
227
294
789
653
1,091
316
68
432
439
631
654
784
1,169
1,091
1,566
858
507
864
0
5
9
12
210
64
183
68
40
77
0
0
1
3
114
31
86
15
7
36
69
140
198
264
571
464
788
376
150
345
351
515
502
650
1,099
1,012
1,426
861
513
777
0
5
8
12
223
68
186
79
46
82
656
996
976
1,123
2,265
2,005
2,749
1,450
655
1,455
550
852
890
1,091
2,267
1,817
2,953
1,253
617
1,406
420
660
709
929
2,007
1,575
2,486
1,331
716
1,240
361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775
1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80
0
0
1
3
113
29
80
17
10
34
81
151
208
270
576
469
790
383
171
353
361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775
1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80
0
0
1
3
113
29
80
17
10
34
81
151
208
270
576
469
790
383
171
353
361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775
1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80
443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242
443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242
443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242
- = no data available
(a) 30-year normal represents average over 1971 - 2000, reported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Based on forecasts by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.