TF2 Item Rarity Value Index

This index is designed to provide a rarity value for items. This index is not a hard and fast final price, but is intended to inform player about the rarity value of certain items and prevent excessive markup. How to use this index: The metal value provided in our index is calculated from the rarity of items and is a baseline. When trading, subtract our value from the seller s asking price to see the seller markup. The seller markup can be based on many factors including, perceived demand, title modifiers ie. Vintage, or simply seller profit markup. If you are ok with paying that markup, make the trade. This is intended to avoid situations where the buyer purchases a low rarity hat (such as soldier s stash) for huge markup. For example, there have been sellers trying to sell a Soldier s Stash for 2 refined, of which, only 2.5 scrap of that price is associated with rarity. In other words, the markup is 1 refined, 2 reclaimed, and 1 weapon. Players can use this index as leverage when trading citing the rarity and general availability of the item. For example, if there is an item that 15% of players own, then declining a bad trade would be easier because you d know that you could easily find another seller. NOTE: some values on the rarity index are higher than the normal asking price. For example, the western wear s rarity is valued at 7 refined. Currently, you can easily buy one for 2-4 refined, meaning that (for its rarity) the current price is a very good deal. Generally, it isn t rare hats that are over-priced; it s the common ones that are. Pricing Metal Each week, you get between 7 and 12 items, assuming you play long enough. You get roughly 1 item per 50 min of gameplayhttp://wiki.teamfortress.com/wiki/Item_drop_system. Our system uses the weapon as the value we base our numbers off of. We have done this because the weapon is the most basic currency in item trading and is required to make other kinds of metal. 1 Scrap = 1 Reclaimed metal = 1 Refined metal = 2 weapons 6 weapons 18 weapons

Normal Weapons: In general, weapons sell for 1-2 scrap, which we feel isfair. Strange weapons:There are no statistics for strange weapons. Strange weapons are simply normal weapons that count kills and gain titles depending on the kill count. They are rare because someone needs to buy a key ($2.49) to open a crate that is obtained through random drops. Based on our experience, you can usually find someone selling what strange you want to buy. This indicates that strange weapons are not terribly rare, but could be classified as uncommon . Therefore we recommend the rarity value to be 1-2 reclaimed. 1

Keys: these are a large part of trading, but no statistics exist for them. Keys are used to open crates. These are a cheat in the current system to bring down prices, since it is worth between 2-3 refined metal. For about $2.50 someone gets the equivalent of 36-54 weapons, which can easily be traded for a hat.

Intro to pricing index

Justification for our equation: We do a few things that the current system does not. First, our prices are based on statistical mathematics to provide a solid value number. In particular, we attempt to account, mathematically, for the perceived value of a particular item. In other words, we use math to value how much people think an item is worth. Our system makes a few crucial assumptions 1. We assume that in the statistics given, every person that has the item only has one copy of it. We understand that in some cases this may be false, but no statistics are given on actual item counts, so we feel that this is the most accurate measure. 2. We assume that everyone that has the particular item equipped will not sell it. Of course, this is not entirely true, but in general, people that equip the item actually like it, so would be less inclined to sell it. At the very least, they would charge more. On the other hand, this assumption does attempt to account for those that own the hat through the Mann-co Store, since they are obviously inclined to equip it because they paid money for it. Also, hats bought in the store cannot be traded. 3.We assume the rarity of an item has a large effect on the price. This is easily justifiable because of the basic principle of supply and demand rarer hats have less supply for the demand, thus they are more expensive.

Advantages of using the index:

Values vary by rarity: It is important to note that the prices will not stay the same. As different hats become more or less rare or desirable, the price will vary accordingly. Values are streamlined: Our index is designed to provide a value based on rarity that is used as a baseline. When this is compared to the seller s asking price, it becomes easier to see exactly how much more the seller is charging for factors other than rarity. Faster Flow of Commerce:This general smoothing of trade values will have the effect of improving the flow of trade. Lower value hats will be cheaper, and, therefore, more easily obtained.At the same time, prices will become more consistent across servers, meaning that there will be less time wasted price shopping and more time will be spent buying. This means that metal will flow more smoothly from buyers to sellers, ensuring that a greater percentage of trades will be completed quickly. To provide an example, the current system works like a flea market much time is spent on shopping.

Description of the Item Value Formula: The formula is a modified rarity index taken from http://www.discogs.com/help/forums/topic/233011. Statistics were taken from http://tf2stats.net/hats/ . 2

The total item value formula is as follows: Tv = Bw + Hv Total value (Tv)= base perceived + hat value Hat value (Hv)=hat rarity x (hat slider value) Slider = X4.5 < verycommon = X3.5 for hats< common = 4.5 6.96 7.47 X2 for hats <uncommon = X1.5 for hats <rare X1for hats >super rare 9.98 11.25 13

NOTE: the slider is designed to create a minimum price for a hat and roughly adjust value accordingly. The idea is that a hat should not be worth less than 1 reclaimed. Base perceived value in weapons (Bw)= R x 1000 Rarity index (R) = (users that don t have the item / users that have the item / items for sale) Rarity index uses the three statistics the total profiles sampled, the profiles seen in, and the total equipped. The equation is as follows: users that don t have = (sampled profiles) (profiles seen in) users that have = profiles seen in items for sale = (profiles seen in) (total equipped)

LEGEND Promotional

Hats
A rather Festive Tree Aperture Labs Hard Hat Armored Authority Attendant Backbiter's Billycock Baseball Bill's Sports Shine Batter's Helmet Benefactor's Kanmuri Berliner's Bucket Helm Big Chief Big Country Bill's Hat Bloke's Bucket Hat Bombing Run Bonk Boy Bonk Helm Bounty Hat Brain Bucket Brigade Helm Buckaroos Hat Cadaver's Cranium Capo's Capper Carouser's Capotain Charmer's Chapeau Chieftan's Challenge Conjurer's Cowl Connoisseur's Cap Copper's Hard Top Cosa Nostra Cap Coupe D'isaster Crocleather Slouch Dead Cone Dealer's Visor Defiant Spartan Demoman's Fro Desert Marauder Detective Noir Doctor's Sack

Value in Weapons 17.3 17.52 48.61 12.83 10.36 10.71 8.17 61.89 16.16 16.8 88.19 13.49 15.45 20.1 78.43 9.28 13.15 13.43 10.69 21.85 23.94 89.9 24.97 94.4 14.34 18.42 97.38 20.47 107.84 25.22 112.69 13.47 13.4 15.64 6 71.05 20.69 128.76

Total Trade Value 2 rec 2 scrap 1 ref 2 ref 2 rec 2 rec 1 rec 1 rec 1 rec 1 rec 2 rec 2 rec 2 rec 2 rec 2 rec 1 rec 1 rec 2 rec 2 rec 1 rec 1 rec 1 rec 2 rec 1 ref 5 ref 1 ref 6 ref 1 ref 6 ref 1 rec 1 scrap 1 rec 2 scrap 2 rec 2 rec 2 rec 1 rec 2 rec 2 scrap 1 scrap

1 wep

1 wep 2 scrap 2 scrap 1 scrap 1 wep 2 scrap 2 scrap 2 scrap 1 scrap 1 scrap 1 scrap 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep

3 ref

4 ref

1 ref 4 ref

1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 2 wep

1 ref 1 ref 5 ref 1 ref 5 ref

2 scrap 1 scrap

1 wep

1 wep

1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep

1 scrap 2 scrap 1 scrap 1 scrap

3 ref 1 ref 7 ref

Dread Knot Dr's Dapper Topper Engineer's Cap Exquisite Rack Familiar Fez Fancy Fedora Flipped Triby Football Helmet Foster's Faade Frenchman's Beret Frontline Field Recorder Furious Fukaamigasa Geisha Boy Gentleman's Gatsby German Gonzilla Glengarry Bonnet Grenadier's Softcap Grimm Hatte Handyman's Handle Hard Counter Heavy Duty Rag Hero's Hachimaki Hero's Tail Hetman's Headpiece Honcho's Headgear Horrific Headsplatter Hotrod Hottie's Hoodie Hound Dog Humanitarian's Hachimaki Hustler's Hallmark Industrial Festivizer Janissary Ketche Jumper's Jeepcap Killer's Kabuto Large Luchadore Larrikin Robin Lo-fi Longwave Lord Cockswain's Pith Helmet Lumbricus Lid Madam Dixie Magistrate's Mullet

19.38 14.98 10.32 18.92 12.53 5.96 19.26 6.9 13.11 16.16 24.56 90.55 18.42 17.32 21.79 8.94 12.79 69.05 16.47 28.22 13.77 35.27 68.81 22.81 57.07 20.73 12.59 99.2 12.33 20.17 12 22.55 22.52 69 11.73 101.76 18.84 90.54

1 ref 2 rec 1 rec 1 ref 2 rec 1 rec 1 ref 1 rec 2 rec 2 rec 1 rec 1 scrap 2 scrap

1 wep 1 wep 1 wep

1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 2 scrap

1 ref 5 ref 1 ref 1 ref

2 rec 1 rec 2 rec 2 rec 2 rec 1 rec 2 rec 2 rec 2 rec

2 scrap 1 scrap 1 scrap 1 scrap 2 scrap 2 scrap 2 scrap 1 scrap 2 scrap 1 scrap 1 scrap 1 scrap 1 scrap

1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep

3 ref 1 ref 1 ref 3 ref 1 ref 3 ref 1 ref 5 ref 1 ref

1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep

2 rec 1 rec 2 rec 2 rec

1 ref 1 ref 3 ref 5 ref 1 ref 5 ref

2 rec 2 rec 2 rec

2 scrap 2 scrap 2 scrap

78.68 4 ref 13.97 20.05 1 ref 14.3

1 rec 2 rec 2 rec

1 wep 1 scrap 1 scrap 1 scrap 5

Magnificent Mongolian Mask of the Shaman Master's Yellow Belt Max's Severed Head Medic's Mountain Cap Milkman Mining Light Modest Pile of Hat Napper's Respite Noble Amassment of Hats Noh Mercy Officer's Ushanka Ol' Geezer Ol' Snaggletooth Old Guadalajara Otolaryngologist's Mirror Planeswalker Helm Prancer's Pride Prince Tavish's Crown Private Eye Professional's Panama Professor's Peculiarity Prussian Pickelhaube Pugilist's Protector Pyromancer's Mask Pyro's Beanie Reggaelator Respectless Rubber Glove Rimmed Raincatcher Ritzy Rick's Hair Fixative Safe'n'sound Samur-eye Scotch Bonnet Scotsman's Stove Pipe Sergeant's Drill Hat Shooter's Sola Topi Sober Stuntman Soldier's Stash Spine-Chilling Skull Spiral Sallet Stainless Pot Stately Steel Toe Stout Shako

24.83 54.83 9.65 37.64 80.49 12.37 7.4 11.7 13.27 14.19 18.4 10.27 144.7 13.31 13.29 10 37.21 26.14 17.37 47.46 11.7 58.29 6.19 19.68 15.18 6.96 70.69 8.39 22.15 10.73 13.3 17.6 16.35 13.66 12.71 15 16.37 5.4 17.35 13.21 8.93 21.42 15.58

1 ref 3 ref 2 ref 4 ref

1 rec 1 rec 1 rec 2 rec 1 rec 1 rec 2 rec 2 rec 1 rec 1 scrap

1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep

2 scrap 1 scrap 2 scrap

1 wep 1 wep 1 wep

1 ref 8 ref 2 rec 2 rec 1 rec 2 ref 1 ref 2 ref 3 ref 1 rec 1 ref 2 rec 1 rec 2 rec 1 rec 1 rec 2 rec 2 rec 2 rec 2 rec 2 rec 2 rec 2 rec 2 rec 2 rec 1 rec 1 ref 2 rec 2 scrap 2 scrap 1 scrap 2 scrap 2 scrap 2 scrap 2 scrap 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 scrap 1 scrap 2 scrap 2 scrap 1 scrap 1 scrap 1 scrap 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 6 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 rec 2 rec 1 rec 1 rec 1 wep 1 wep 2 scrap 1 wep 1 scrap 2 scrap 2 scrap 2 scrap 2 scrap 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep

3 ref 1 ref

Sultan's Ceremonial Summer Hat Tam O' Shanter Team Captain Texas Slim's Dome Shine Texas Ten Gallon The Athletic Supporter The Superfan Tippler's Tricorne Tough Guy's Toque Towering Pillar of Hats Treasure Hat TriboniophorusTyrannus Trophy Belt Troublemaker's Tossle Cap Tyrant's Helm Vintage Merryweather Vintage Tyrolean Voodoo Juju Western Wear Whoopee Cap World Traveler's Hat Ye Olde Baker Boy Ze Goggles

73.4 109.77 20.79 65.5 9.46 8.9 13.94 13.94 14.06 11.05 13.94 19.65 12.33 7.02 12.6 9.7 13.6 10.5 18.19 125.95 13.76 6.5 9.09 12.57

4 ref 6 ref 1 ref 3 ref

1 scrap 1 scrap 1 scrap 2 rec 1 rec 1 rec 2 rec 2 rec 2 rec 1 rec 2 rec 2 rec 1 rec 2 rec 1 rec 2 rec 2 rec 1 scrap 1 scrap 1 scrap 1 scrap 1 scrap 2 scrap 1 scrap

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1 ref 7 ref 2 rec 1 rec 1 rec 2 rec 1 wep 1 scrap 1 wep

Accessories
Big Kill Big Steel Jaw of Summer Fun Blighted Beak Camera Beard Companion Cube Pin Dangeresque, too? Dr. Grordbort's Crest Earbuds Enthusiast's Timepiece Fancy Dress Uniform Value in Weapons 29.11 1 ref 21.93 1 ref 17 8.99 13.37 13.41 176.4 9 ref 14.67 13.24 76.88 4 ref Total Trade Value 1 rec 2 scrap 2 scrap 2 scrap 1 scrap 1 wep

2 rec 1 rec 2 rec 2 rec 2 rec 2 rec 2 rec

1 wep 1 wep 1 wep

1 scrap 1 scrap 2 scrap 1 wep 1 wep 7

Flip-Flops Gentle Mann's Service Medal Googly Gazer Le Party Phantom License to Maim Lord Cockswain's Novelty Mutton Chops and Pipe Lucky No. 42 Lugermorph Made Man Physician's Procedure Mask Pip-boy Planeswalker Goggles Pocket Medic Prarie Heel Biters Professor Speks Resurrection Associate Pin Rogue's Col Roule Security Shades Sight for Sore Eyes Sign of the Wolf's School Spacechem Pin Stockbroker's Scarf Summer Shades Teddy Roosebelt The Essential Accessories Unusual Horseless Headless Horsemann'sHeadtaker Villain's Veil Whiskered Gentleman

71.44 3 ref 39.27 56.51 16.97 13.31 113.18 91.34 13.37 97.34 12.7 21.17 48.43 60.84 19.65 17.58 23.6 24.99 22.32 88.27 60 81.64 13.16 13.22 52.94 14.43 13.53 98 14.41 2 ref 3 ref

2 rec

2 scrap 1 scrap 1 scrap 2 scrap 2 scrap

1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep

2 rec 2 rec 6 ref 5 ref 5 ref 2 rec 1 rec 2 rec 1 ref 2 ref 3 ref 1 ref 1 ref 1 ref 1 ref 1 ref 4 ref 3 ref 4 ref

1 scrap 2 rec 1 rec

2 wep 1 rec 1 rec 2 rec 1 rec 1 rec 2 rec 2 rec 2 rec 2 rec 2 rec 1 rec 2 rec 2 scrap 2 scrap 1 scrap 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 wep 1 scrap 1 scrap

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2 ref

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5 ref

Researched and authored by Shiro_kishi andKura_kishi About the authors: Shiro_kishiis currently pursuing a degree in political science. He has studied economics and political issues for over 4 years. Kura_kishi is currently has a Bachelor s degree in Psychology. He has studied economics and political issues for over 7 years. Currently, he is conducting research in both psychology and economics. 8