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August 9, 2011
Indian Bank
ACCUMULATE
Performance Highlights
CMP
Target Price
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY12
4QFY11
% chg (qoq)
1QFY11
% chg (yoy)
1,030
1,111
(7.3)
927
11.2
Pre-prov. profit
781
903
(13.5)
838
(6.8)
PAT
407
439
(7.3)
368
10.5
NII
`213
`232
Investment Period
12 Months
Stock Info
Sector
Banking
For 1QFY2012, Indian Bank reported a decline of 7.3% qoq in its net profit to
`407cr, mostly in-line with our estimates. Healthy growth momentum combined
with stable asset quality was the key highlight of the result. We recommend an
Accumulate rating on the stock.
Strong growth in business; Asset quality remains stable: Net advances for the
bank grew strongly by 9.6% qoq and 21.3% yoy to `85,510cr, while deposits
grew by 4.4% qoq and 21.3% yoy to `110,425cr. CASA ratio as of 1QFY2012
stood at 31.0%, up 20bp from 30.8% in 4QFY2011. The effect of rising interest
rates was felt in 1QFY2012, with cost of deposits increasing by 90bp qoq to
7.2%. However, yield on advances increased by 101bp qoq to 10.9%, leading to
a sequential increase of 11bp in reported NIM to 2.5%. During the quarter,
non-interest income decreased by 8.2% qoq (down 29.9% yoy) to `249cr.
Treasury income was strong at `47cr (`5cr in 4QFY2011), while income from
recoveries was weak at `19cr (`89cr in 4QFY2011). For 1QFY2012, the banks
operating expenses increased by 3.9% qoq to `498cr, driven by a 16.0%
sequential rise in employee expenses to `359cr.
Outlook and valuation: The banks relatively higher rural and semi-urban
presence has enabled it to maintain reasonable cost of funds, resulting in more
resilient NIMs than other mid-size PSU banks. At the CMP, the stock is trading at
5.4x FY2013E EPS of `39.8 and 0.9x FY2013E ABV of `244.3, which is below
our target multiple of 1.0x FY2013 ABV. Hence, we recommend an Accumulate
rating on the stock with a target price of `232, implying a 9.0% upside from
current levels.
9,154
Beta
1.1
317/197
28,387
10
BSE Sensex
16,858
Nifty
5,073
Reuters Code
INBA.BO
Bloomberg Code
INBK@IN
80.0
4.2
10.0
Abs. (%)
5.8
3m
1yr
3yr
Sensex
(9.0)
(7.8)
11.1
Indian Bank
(8.0)
(8.2)
83.1
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr)
NII
% chg
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012E
FY2013E
3,161
4,036
4,166
4,434
21.2
27.7
3.2
6.4
1,555
1,714
1,625
1,748
24.9
10.2
-5.2
7.6
NIM (%)
3.5
3.7
3.3
3.0
EPS (`)
35.1
38.8
36.9
39.8
P/E (x)
6.1
5.5
5.8
5.4
P/ABV (x)
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.9
RoA (%)
1.7
1.5
1.2
1.2
RoE (%)
25.6
23.5
19.0
17.8
Net profit
% chg
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808
vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Shrinivas Bhutda
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845
shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847
varun.varma@angelbroking.com
1QFY12 4QFY11
Interest earned
2,781
2,594
Interest expenses
1,751
NII
1,030
Non-interest income
Operating income
% chg (yoy)
7.2
2,122
31.1
1,483
18.1
1,195
46.5
1,111
(7.3)
927
11.2
249
272
(8.2)
355
(29.9)
1,279
1,383
(7.5)
1,282
(0.2)
Operating expenses
498
480
3.9
444
12.1
Pre-prov. profit
781
903
(13.5)
838
(6.8)
177
127
39.6
344
(48.5)
PBT
604
776
(22.2)
494
22.3
197
337
(41.5)
126
56.8
PAT
407
439
(7.3)
368
10.5
(7.3)
4.4
10.5
EPS (`)
4.9
5.3
38.9
34.7
34.7
32.6
43.5
25.5
0.5
0.5
0.8
Actual
Estimates
Var. (%)
NII
1,030
1,112
(7.4)
Non-interest income
249
273
(8.8)
1,279
1,385
(7.6)
Operating expenses
498
481
3.5
Pre-prov. profit
781
904
(13.6)
177
287
(38.3)
PBT
604
617
(2.1)
197
200
(1.5)
PAT
407
417
(2.4)
Operating income
August 9, 2011
1QFY12 4QFY11
Agriculture
% chg (yoy)
11,638
11,048
5.3
10,433
11.5
9,638
9,681
(0.4)
8,666
11.2
45,768
39,915
14.7
34,963
30.9
3,367
3,138
7.3
2,959
13.8
Retail
12,100
11,944
1.3
11,006
9.9
Gross advances
82,511
75,726
9.0
68,027
21.3
SME
Corporate
Overseas credit
10.0
73.2
8.0
6.0
71.1
70.9
August 9, 2011
74.0
32.0
72.0
31.0
70.0
30.0
68.0
29.0
9.6
4.4
1.8
4.7
6.5
3.1
2.1
7.7
2.0
8.6
6.7
4.0
76.0
29.6
27.4
30.0
22.7
15.1
15.0
31.0
74.7
CASA ratio
33.0
30.8
74.8
32.0
12.0
32.2
32.7
20.0
10.0
-
1,128
1,900
1,850
3.50
3.43
3.40
1,800
1,750
3.30
1,700
3.20
1,650
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
1,064
1,100
1,050
1,010
1,822
3.60
1,200
1,150
1,085
1,803
3.70
1,863
3.76
3.71
ATMs (RHS)
1,179
1,950
1,762
3.80
3.86
3.84
3.90
1,895
1,000
950
900
83.3
83.0
1.0
0.5
1.0
0.5
1.0
0.6
1.3
0.7
1.5
0.8
0.5
August 9, 2011
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
84.5
6.0
84.0
5.0
83.5
4.0
83.0
3.0
82.5
2.0
82.0
1.0
1.3
Slippages (%)
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.4
1QFY11
2QFY11
0.2
0.1
3QFY11
4QFY11
0.9
83.0
84.1
1.9
1.0
1.6
1.5
2.1
5.3
0.4
0.2
-
1QFY12
30.0
1.7
40.0
1.7
1.6
1.6
2.0
10.0
20.0
1.0
10.0
0.5
38.9
1.5
34.7
30.0
36.9
1QFY12
2.5
1.9
41.7
359
309
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
50.0
40.0
34.7
38.9
139
170
159
34.7
333
150
36.9
20.0
369
300
123
450
34.7
321
600
41.7
142
Investment arguments
Relatively high yield on advances, with resilient asset quality
A large part of the banks credit book comprises SME and mid-size corporates,
contributing relatively high yield on advances but, at the same time, maintaining
superior asset quality with net NPA ratio of less than 1%.
August 9, 2011
Particulars (%)
Revised estimates
FY2012E
FY2013E
FY2012E
FY2013E
Credit growth
19.0
17.0
19.0
17.0
Deposit growth
15.0
14.0
15.0
14.0
CASA ratio
30.5
30.4
30.5
30.4
NIM
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.0
5.2
12.5
(3.9)
14.9
2.5
12.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
15.0
10.0
15.0
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
81.0
81.0
81.0
80.0
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
Slippages
Coverage ratio
Treasury gain/(loss) (% of investments)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Earlier
estimates
4,435
NII
FY2012
Revised
% chg
estimates
4,166 (6.1)
FY2013
Earlier
estimates
4,798
Revised
% chg
estimates
4,434 (7.6)
Non-interest income
1,243
1,136
(8.6)
1,398
1,305
(6.7)
Operating income
5,678
5,302
(6.6)
6,196
5,739
(7.4)
Operating expenses
2,049
2,106
2.8
2,315
2,378
2.7
Pre-prov. profit
3,630
3,196 (11.9)
3,881
3,361 (13.4)
819
PBT
791
2,810
(3.5)
813
2,405 (14.4)
3,068
774
(4.8)
2,587 (15.7)
912
780 (14.4)
995
839 (15.7)
PAT
1,898
1,625 (14.4)
2,073
1,748 (15.7)
Preference Dividend
4,435
4,166
(6.1)
4,798
4,434
(7.6)
1,243
1,136
(8.6)
1,398
1,305
(6.7)
0.5x
0.8x
1.1x
1.4x
1.7x
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Mar-11
Sep-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Mar-10
Sep-09
Jun-09
Mar-09
Dec-08
Sep-08
Jun-08
Mar-08
Dec-07
Sep-07
Jun-07
Mar-07
August 9, 2011
Tgt.
price (`)
Upside
(%)
FY2013E
P/ABV (x)
FY2013E
Tgt. P/ABV (x)
FY2013E
P/E (x)
FY11-13E
CAGR in EPS (%)
FY2013E
RoA (%)
FY2013E
RoE (%)
1,211
1,648
36.1
1.9
2.7
10.0
20.9
1.5
21.0
384
441
14.9
1.0
1.2
7.9
19.0
1.2
13.9
Accumulate
466
519
11.4
3.1
3.5
16.2
30.5
1.7
20.9
ICICIBk*
Buy
941
1,281
36.1
1.7
2.3
13.3
25.8
1.5
16.0
SIB
Buy
21
24
16.1
1.1
1.3
6.5
11.6
0.9
17.2
YesBk
Buy
292
353
20.7
1.9
2.3
9.8
19.1
1.2
20.6
AllBk
Neutral
191
0.9
5.4
9.2
0.9
17.8
AndhBk
Neutral
132
0.9
5.9
(0.6)
0.9
15.9
BOB
Buy
854
1,018
19.2
1.2
1.4
6.4
10.8
1.1
19.6
BOI
Accumulate
350
397
13.4
1.0
1.1
5.5
18.7
0.8
18.0
BOM
Buy
52
61
18.3
0.7
0.8
4.9
30.8
0.6
14.8
CanBk
Accumulate
434
490
13.1
0.8
1.0
5.0
(2.4)
0.9
17.2
CentBk
Neutral
109
0.8
5.3
(14.0)
0.5
14.4
CorpBk
Buy
460
576
25.3
0.7
0.9
4.3
6.1
0.9
17.9
DenaBk
Neutral
83
0.6
3.9
7.0
0.8
16.5
IDBI#
Neutral
118
0.7
5.5
13.0
0.7
14.3
IndBk
Accumulate
213
232
9.0
0.9
1.0
5.4
1.2
1.2
17.8
IOB
Accumulate
128
143
11.3
0.8
0.9
4.9
22.4
0.7
16.4
J&KBk
Neutral
841
0.9
5.8
7.3
1.2
16.5
OBC
Accumulate
333
372
11.5
0.8
0.9
5.6
7.5
0.9
14.4
PNB
Accumulate
1,116
1,217
9.1
1.3
1.4
6.9
7.4
1.0
20.0
SBI*
Buy
2,231
2,776
24.5
1.7
2.1
8.2
44.2
1.1
22.6
SynBk
Buy
111
131
18.5
0.8
0.9
5.1
8.6
0.6
15.6
UcoBk
Neutral
UnionBk
Accumulate
UtdBk
VijBk
Company
Reco.
AxisBk
Buy
FedBk
Accumulate
HDFCBk
77
1.0
4.6
16.0
0.6
17.0
279
313
12.3
1.0
1.2
5.9
20.0
0.8
17.9
Buy
87
103
18.3
0.7
0.9
5.1
13.2
0.6
14.1
Neutral
60
0.8
6.4
61.9
0.4
11.7
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), # Without adjusting for SASF
August 9, 2011
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr)
NII
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
1,872
1,992
2,609
3,161
4,036
4,166
4,434
24.0
6.4
31.0
21.2
27.7
3.2
6.4
Other Income
823
1,068
1,035
1,316
1,182
1,136
1,305
54.9
29.7
(3.0)
27.1
(10.2)
(3.9)
14.9
2,695
3,060
3,644
4,478
5,218
5,302
5,739
32.0
13.5
19.1
22.9
16.5
1.6
8.3
1,247
1,400
1,415
1,730
1,926
2,106
2,378
15.5
12.3
1.1
22.3
11.3
9.3
12.9
1,448
1,659
2,229
2,747
3,292
3,196
3,361
50.6
14.6
34.3
23.3
19.8
(2.9)
5.2
564
424
443
396
657
791
774
40.6
(24.8)
4.3
(10.6)
66.1
20.3
(2.1)
884
1,235
1,786
2,352
2,634
2,405
2,587
57.7
39.7
44.6
31.7
12.0
(8.7)
7.6
124
226
541
797
920
780
839
- as a % of PBT
14.1
18.3
30.3
33.9
34.9
32.4
32.4
PAT
760
1,009
1,245
1,555
1,714
1,625
1,748
50.6
32.8
23.5
24.9
10.2
(5.2)
7.6
Preference Dividend
36
40
43
46
46
37
37
723
969
1,203
1,509
1,668
1,588
1,710
43.4
33.9
24.1
25.5
10.5
(4.8)
7.7
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr)
Share Capital
Equity
Preference
Reserves & Surplus
Deposits
- Growth (%)
Borrowings
Tier 2 Capital
Other Liab. & Prov.
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
830
830
830
830
830
830
830
430
430
430
430
430
430
430
400
400
400
400
400
400
400
3,011
4,381
6,306
7,442
8,691
9,929
11,265
47,091
61,046 72,582
15.4
29.6
18.9
21.6
19.9
15.0
14.0
1,936
1,283
531
657
800
920
1,049
216
300
300
1,300
1,547
1,810
3,281
2,752
3,573
3,932
4,293
5,075
5,909
Total Liabilities
56,149
Cash Balances
3,729
6,433
6,212
7,061
6,878
7,909
9,016
Bank Balances
1,088
340
472
1,052
1,684
2,800
3,191
38,626
Investments
20,878
21,915 22,801
28,268
34,784
36,185
Advances
29,058
39,839 51,465
89,547 104,770
62,146
75,250
37.1
29.2
20.8
21.1
19.0
17.0
551
539
1,594
1,580
1,606
1,792
1,981
844
1,442
1,578
1,282
1,516
1,744
1,988
- Growth (%)
29.2
Fixed Assets
Other Assets
Total Assets
- Growth (%)
August 9, 2011
FY07
56,149
17.9
19.3
20.5
20.1
15.0
14.0
Ratio analysis
Y/E March
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11 FY12E
FY13E
3.7
3.2
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.3
3.0
46.3
45.8
38.8
38.6
36.9
39.7
41.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.5
1.2
1.2
ROE
27.7
25.8
24.7
25.6
23.5
19.0
17.8
CASA ratio
35.4
32.3
31.6
32.2
30.9
30.5
30.4
Credit/Deposit ratio
61.7
65.3
70.9
70.4
71.1
73.6
75.5
CAR
14.1
12.9
12.0
11.5
12.3
13.6
13.6
- Tier I
12.3
11.4
10.2
10.1
10.0
11.1
11.1
Gross NPAs
1.9
1.2
0.9
0.8
1.0
1.9
2.6
Net NPAs
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.7
0.8
Slippages
0.7
1.5
0.6
1.1
1.5
1.6
1.6
0.2
0.6
0.0
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.4
81.3
79.9
79.6
93.6
84.3
81.0
80.0
EPS
16.8
22.5
28.0
35.1
38.8
36.9
39.8
Provision coverage
Per Share Data (`)
213.2
244.3
3.0
3.0
5.0
6.5
7.5
7.0
7.5
12.7
9.4
7.6
6.1
5.5
5.8
5.4
P/ABVPS (x)
2.8
2.0
1.7
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.9
Dividend Yield
1.4
1.4
2.3
3.1
3.5
3.3
3.5
NII
3.6
3.1
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.2
3.0
1.1
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.5
Adj NII
2.5
2.5
2.8
3.0
3.0
2.6
2.4
Treasury
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
2.6
2.9
3.1
3.4
3.2
2.6
2.5
Other Inc.
1.5
1.3
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
Op. Inc.
4.1
4.2
4.1
4.4
4.1
3.4
3.3
Opex
2.4
2.2
1.8
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.6
PBT
1.7
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.4
1.8
1.7
Taxes
0.2
0.4
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.6
DPS
Valuation Ratios
PER (x)
Dupont Analysis
ROA
August 9, 2011
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.5
1.2
1.2
Leverage
18.9
16.2
15.3
15.3
15.3
15.3
15.2
ROE
27.7
25.8
24.7
25.6
23.5
19.0
17.8
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
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risks of such an investment.
Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make
investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
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Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the
latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have
investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Indian Bank
No
No
No
No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
August 9, 2011
10