DISPERSION MODELLING AND GENETIC ALGORITHM APPLICATION FOR EMISSIONS ABATEMENT MEASURES OPTIMIZATION

Josef Keder
esk hydrometeorologick stav keder@chmi.cz

Abstract. A problem of optimum sources emission reduction in such sense that maximum possible sink of population exposure to air pollution is reached by respecting of an assigned ceiling of expenses or economic losses connected with or caused by such effect achievement is formulated and solved. Optimisation problem solution based on the generic algorithm is demonstrated on the artificial data set. Keywords: Air pollution, human exposure, exposure index, optimal emission abatement, genetic algorithm

1. Introduction
In conjunction with problems connected to the frequent air quality standards for particles violations, a need of appropriate measures for population exposure abatement arises. An analysis recently published in [4] showed that even a massive emission reduction would not have to fetch an expected effect concerning an air pollution load reduction. An absolute source emission rate cannot be treated as a sole criterion for its incorporation among these for which emission abatement measures application is necessary. Thus, a question of optimum source emission rate reduction arises in such sense that concentration (and population exposure) reduction resulting from it would reach a maximum effect complying the fixed limit of costs, required for such effect achievement.

2. Exposure index as a remedies effect measure

An exposure index introduced in publications [2] and [3] is applicable as an appropriate measure of proposed sources emissions abatement effect. An area of interest where the influence of the k-th air pollution source and abatement measures effect is investigated can be fractioned into squares of proper size, e.g. 1x1 or 2x2 km. For each square a population density PDi is known. For all square centres a corresponding concentration contribution Cik from the k-th source in the i-th grid square is calculated and concentration shares Pik= Cik /Ci of particular sources on the summary concentration Ci in the i-th square where

C i = C ik
k

A population exposure in the i-th square EXi is determined according to [2] and [3] as EXi = Ci*PDi. A total exposure in the area of interest is given as a sum over all squares covering the whole area

EX = EX i
i

A formula for the total population exposure reduction as a result of emission abatement can be derived as

EX = EX PDi Ci Ak Pik 102

i k

where Ak is a percentage reduction of the k-th source emissions. It only must be supposed that the emission reduction is not accompanied by the substantial source parameter change which might change the dispersion term in model equations and lead to the violation of the linear relationship between emission and concentration.

3. Optimal emission portfolio assessment method

Let us suppose that N is a number of emission sources operated in the area of interest, each of them having an emission rate Ek. a fixed amount of funds PRaloc is available for the emission abatement financing for each source a price of unit emission rate abatement is known upper emission reduction limits which cannot be exceeded from any reason are fixed a full source cessation (100% emission abatement) is also permissible

Under these conditions it is necessary to find an optimum composition of emission rate reduction for particular sources so that the allocated fund would be spent (but not overdraw) and the emission rate reduction would earn the maximum possible population exposure reduction in the area of interest at the same time. Theory of such type of problems solving has been formulated already in the seventies of the previous century (e.g. [1]). Nevertheless, only the contemporary computing technique and newly developed algorithms enable their applicable solution. With Wk designated as costs of 1% emission reduction for the k-th source, the total cost necessary for such source emission abatement are PRk=Ak*Wk. This calculation is valid for such Ak values which does not cause the source cessation. For such case the different (probably higher) costs PRk=PRlikv must be expected. The total costs PR must not exceed the funds allocated to the emission sources sanitation

PR = PRk PRaloc
k

A set of percentage emission reduction Ak which minimizes the EX value can be derived as a result of optimization problem solution under given constrains. This is achieved by setting up of the term

PD C A
i i i k

Pik 10 2

to the maximum value.

4. Optimization procedure test

The method has been tested on the problem including 5771 squares and 39 fictive emission sources. The minimization problem has been solved. It has been proven that the generalized reduced gradient (GRG) method usually applied for the multidimensional function extremes search works not satisfactorily for the problem investigated. The reason is that the algorithm frequently strays into the local extreme and evaluates this as a general one. Consequently, an output set of Ak values does not minimize the total population exposure. Accordingly, the generic algorithm (GA) method (e.g. [5]) has been applied which is, by the appropriate adjustment set, more successful for general extremes search. The initial parameters of the problem are summarized in the table 1. The costs are evaluated in the imaginary financial units (IFU).

Table 1 Initial parameters of the optimization problem

k source number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 Ak percentage emission reduction of k-th source 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PRlikv costs caused by source cessation 71 77 106 52 101 135 109 51 93 76 61 77 114 51 141 77 102 115 63 114 105 87 68 62 133 75 147 58 111 121 107 93 146 64 74 114 51 135 69 Wk costs per 1% emission reduction 8 7 25 17 20 8 29 7 13 11 22 23 28 14 22 5 8 28 20 24 35 35 25 27 24 12 20 31 5 19 14 17 6 21 25 13 32 24 16

The total amount allocated for the emission reduction has been set for 85000 IFU. The further input data were annual PM10 concentrations in 5771 squares, sources shares on these concentrations and population density in particular squares. The total initial exposure before the emission reduction amounted 162016042,1. The initial situation in the area of interest shows figures 1 and 2. The set of percentage emission reduction for particular sources yielded as an optimization problem solution under given constrains is summarized in the table 2. Estimated reduction costs amounted 84247 IFU, allocated amount has been exploited maximally. The total population exposure in the area sank until 43794977,53 which represents 73% reduction of the initial value. The situation after the optimal emission reduction shows the figure 3.

Table 2 Optimization problem solution results the optimal set of source emission percentage reduction
k source number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Ak percentage emission reduction of the k-th source 100.00% 41.90% 78.95% 77.98% 82.79% 60.70% 53.91% 90.77% 69.44% 77.59% 52.60% 31.56% 46.94% 26.24% 51.54% 58.29% 95.17% 55.73% 100.00% 67.90% k source number 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 Ak percentage emission reduction of the k-th source 62.35% 61.24% 42.74% 44.85% 39.52% 100.00% 54.67% 78.80% 67.41% 63.89% 73.30% 66.34% 60.35% 59.81% 59.11% 61.32% 60.39% 39.70% 49.76%

The method presented shows a procedure how to, under existing constrains, objectively propose emission reduction with the maximum effect. The effect is measured by reduction of the total population exposure to pollutants. The method prefers solutions leading to air pollution load reduction in densely populated areas and suppress those resulting into concentration reduction in not populated localities. The procedure has been tested on the problem with the relatively small amount of sources. The real problems may include hundreds of sources and cover areas of order of thousands square kilometres. It is necessary to test if existing software tools can cover optimization problems of such extent or if the procedure showed might by applicable for only limited number of sources.

Fig. 1 Population density in the area of interest persons/km2

Fig. 2 PM10 concentration field in the area of interest before the emission reduction at sources depicted

Fig. 3 PM10 concentration field in the area of interest after the optimum emission reduction at sources depicted. By this reduction the maximum possible population exposure sink has been achieved respecting the limited emission reduction costs.

Fig. 4 PM10 concentration sink in the area of interest (in percentage of the initial level) after the optimum emission reduction at sources depicted. References 1. GORR, W.R., GUSTAFSON, A., KORTANEK, K.O.: Optimal control strategies for air quality standards and regulatory policy. Environmental and Planning, Vol.4, ss. 183-192, 1972 2. JENSEN, S.S.: A Geographic Approach to Modelling Human Exposure to Traffic Air Pollution using GIS. PhD Thesis 1999, National Environmental Research Institute, Denmark, 1999 3. JENSEN, S.S., BERKOWICZ, R., BRANDT, J., W ILLUMSEN, E., KRISTENSEN, N.B.: ExternE transport methodology for external cost evaluation of air pollution Estimation of Danish exposure factors. NERI Technical Report No. 523, National Environmental Research Institute, Roskilde, Denmark, 2004 4. KEDER, J., JANATOV, L.: Zhodnocen monosti snen etnosti vskytu pekraovn imisnch limit cestou regulace emis. Sbornk konference Ochrana ovzdu ve sttn sprv V, teorie a praxe, EKOMONITOR, ISBN 978-80-86832-46-3, 2009 (in Czech) 5. POKORN, M.: Uml inteligence v modelovn a zen, BEN technick literatura, ISBN 80-901984-4-9, 1996 (in Czech)