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INDEPENDENT EQUITY RESEARCH

Deutsche Lufthansa
Airlines / Germany
34 rue Mdric, 75017 Paris - France Tel +33 (0) 1 70 61 10 58 Email sales@alphavalue.eu Web ALPHAVALUE.COM

Latest
13/07/2011

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Target Price (6 months) Share Price

Upside : 20.4 %
17.1 14.2 6,519
NEGATIVE

Fact
Lufthansa increased the number of passengers by 6.4% to 5.88m in June which brings the ytd number to 31.2m (+14.8%). Simultaneously, the cargo volume was up by 3.7% to 159k tons and 14.8% to 953k tons, respectively.

Market Capitalisation M Price Momentum Extremes 12Months Newsflow Bloomberg Reuters

11.8

17.7 Neutral

LHA GR Equity LHAG.DE

Analysis
The carrier continued increasing the offer more sharply than demand moved up. Consequently, the groups seat load factor (SLF) fell by 2.4pp to 81.0% in June and by 2.1pp to 75.7% in H1. The freight load factor (FLF) fell by 3.9pp to 68.6% in the past month and by 3.3pp to 69.1% in H1. The SLF continued to fall quite sharply on Asian/Pacific destinations. The number of passengers flying to/from these destinations is still rising strongly, but Lufthansa is continuing to increase the offer disproportionately (+14.5% in June and +13.1% in H1).

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PERF Deutsche Lufthansa Transport DJ STOXX 600

1w -7.02 % -7.02 % -2.71 %

1m 2.30 % -6.72 % 0.01 %

3m -4.14 % -4.14 % -2.92 %

12m 17.2 % -5.05 % 6.76 %

Sector Opinion Strongest upside Worst potential

Overweight Air France-KLM Kuehne & Nagel Intl

Complete Sector Analysis

Last updated: 08/05/2011 Adjusted P/E (x) Dividend yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Adjusted EPS () Growth in EPS (%) Dividend () Sales (M) EBIT margin (%) Attributable net profit (M) ROE (after tax) (%) Gearing (%)

12/09A -20.8 0.00 8.29 -0.49

12/10A 8.24 4.60 5.15 1.58

12/11E 12.6 4.21 4.52 1.13 -28.7

12/12E 8.71 4.92 4.30 1.63 45.0 0.70 30,400 4.57 748 9.10 25.1

0.00 22,283 0.58 -112 -1.73 21.9

0.60 27,324 3.21 1,131 15.8 25.3

0.60 29,300 4.30 516 6.34 24.7

Company Valuation - Company Financials

Sales by Geography

Valuation Summary
Benchmarks DCF NAV/SOTP per share P/E EV/Ebitda P/Book Dividend Yield TARGET PRICE DCF Calculation Value 16.2 15.9 20.1 19.0 18.7 28.5 17.1 Weight 40 % 40 % 5% 5% 5% 5% 100 %

Largest comparables IAG (International A... Amadeus IT Holding Ryanair Air France-KLM EasyJet

NAV/SOTP Calculation

Consolidated P&L Account


Sales Change in sales Change in staff costs EBITDA EBITDA margin Depreciation Underlying operating profit Operating profit (EBIT) Net financial expense of which related to pensions Exceptional items & other Corporate tax Equity associates Minority interests Adjusted attributable net profit NOPAT M % % M % M M M M M M M M M M M

12/10A 27,324 22.6 11.1 2,570 9.41 -1,591 1,123 1,095 -357 -182 194 165 46.0 -12.0 724 904

12/11E 29,300 7.23 2.51 3,249 11.1 -1,679 1,490 1,430 -746 -113

12/12E 30,400 3.75 2.55 3,458 11.4 -1,785 1,598 1,533 -552 -140

Balance Sheet
Goodwill Tangible fixed assets Financial fixed assets WCR Other assets Total assets (net of short term liab.) Ordinary shareholders' equity Quasi Equity & Preferred Minority interests Provisions for pensions Other provisions for risks and liabilities M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M

12/10A 605 14,150 1,763 -4,130 2,177 16,221 8,242

12/11E 605 15,020 1,514 -4,472 2,384 16,677 8,027

12/12E 605 15,600 1,514 -4,596 2,507 17,256 8,421

98.0 2,571 1,524 4,095 642 1,340 1,804 16,221

88.0 3,113 1,380 4,493 471 1,430 2,168 16,677

88.0 3,265 1,450 4,715 471 1,500 2,061 17,256

-177 25.0 -16.0 516 1,105

-255 40.0 -18.0 748 1,211

Total provisions for risks and liabilities Tax liabilities Other liabilities Net debt (cash) Total liab. and shareholders' equity

Cashflow Statement
EBITDA Change in WCR Actual div. received from equity holdi... Paid taxes Exceptional items Other operating cash flows Total operating cash flows Capital expenditure Total investment flows Net interest expense Dividends (parent company) Dividends to minorities interests New shareholders' equity Total financial flows Change in cash position Free cash flow (pre div.) M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M 14.0 1,005 240 -593 -0.03 -274 -751 0.34 199 27.0 2,765 -2,168 -1,838 -357 0.00 -18.0 -570 2,922 -2,450 -2,329 -746 -275 -20.0 -108 3,301 -2,550 -2,550 -552 -275 -21.0 2,570 204 74.0 -110 3,249 342 78.0 -177 3,458 124 82.0 -255

Capital Employed
Capital employed after depreciation M 16,931 17,293 17,849

Profits & Risks Ratios


ROE (after tax) ROCE Gearing (at book value) Adj. Net debt/EBITDA(R) Interest cover (x) % % % x x 15.8 6.35 25.3 1.67 6.42 6.34 7.50 24.7 1.47 2.35 9.10 7.96 25.1 1.37 3.88

Valuation Ratios
Reference P/E (benchmark) Free cash flow yield P/Book Dividend yield x % x % 8.24 4.02 0.72 4.60 12.6 -4.20 0.81 4.21 8.71 3.05 0.77 4.92

AlphaValue EV Calculation
Market cap + Provisions + Unrecognised acturial losses/(gains) M M M M M M M M x x 5,969 4,095 0.00 1,804 2,887 350 98.0 14,503 5.15 0.53 6,519 4,493 0.00 2,168 3,000 350 98.0 15,928 4.52 0.54 6,519 4,715 0.00 2,061 3,100 350 98.0 16,143 4.30 0.53

Per Share Data


No. of shares net of treas. stock (year... Number of diluted shares (average) Benchmark EPS Restated NAV per share Net dividend per share Mio Mio 458 458 1.58 13.8 0.60 458 458 1.13 14.4 0.60 458 458 1.63 15.5 0.70

+ Net debt at year end + Leases debt equivalent - Financial fixed assets (fair value) + Minority interests (fair value) = EV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

Analyst : Hans-Peter Wodniok, Changes to Forecasts : 08/05/2011.

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