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Adult Learning Human Capital and Economic Development

Lewis 1. Perelman





.c 19H4 by the Council 01 State Plauuuu;


Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

Perelman. Lewts .J, 'l'he learuuu; entcrprtse. Bibllo~rClphy: p, I, Adult cducattou=-Untted Statcs=-Plunnlnu, 2, Couunutnu Educauon-c-Economuaspt'('ts--Ullltl'd a, Human Capital-United Stau-s, I. Title, I.C525I.P:IH H-lH4 :r14',97:i tH--213.tH IS13l" O8J4H42442


'1~'P()graph~' by The' l~'Pl'W()rl\s Manufactun-d In the United States

Tilt' Counctl of Statl' Plalllling Agl'tlt'les Is a nu-mbershtp organtzatton comprtscd or tilt' plunnuu; ami policy stuff or tilt' nut ton S govt'rllOl's. Throuuh ill'i Waslllllgtoll olt'll't', tht' COllJlt'1I provides usslstuucc W iudtvtdual statl':-; 011" wtd spoctrum of pollr'y matters. The Counctl also I)(,r forms policy and ll'l'hlli('al n-searcl 1011 hoth state' and nuuonul iSSUl'S, Till' COUll' ell has IJl'(~1I alflliatt'd with till' Nat tunal GOVl't'IIOl"s' Assortat ion stnve 1975, TIll' statt'l1It'lIts, findings, conclustons. nx-omnu-nduttons. and other data runtatncd 111 this report do not nvressartly represent the vtews of the ('mllleil 01 Statl' Phlllllilll.! Agl'IH'it's_ 1'\0 part ot this honk lIIay ln- used or n-produ-: '<I ill allY 111<11111('1' what sovvrr wu hout writ tvn pcrnussion exrvpt III till' ("<lSl' 01 brid quotauons embodied III I"l'Sl',IITII papers and reviews.

The Council of State Planning Agencies

Hall 01 Sliltl'S


Nnrt It Capttol SI n't'!

Washlll~(tnll, n.c. :WOOI (202) li245:IH()

.Janu-s 1\1. SOl1lJ~'

Lxvvut tve Dirertur

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Foreword Acknowledgments About the Author Introduction Executive Summary Chapter 1
A HILma1l 1-'11 JlCtiOIl FlI

vii tx xi xv

Capital Crisis; FOIL,. F

Frusun Ii()II "]'hirl{/s to COrlle

Chapter 2

The Fbllrr/l Sector The L('(l1"1li1l9 Enu/rprisc: A /\('!J /Ilcillstr!l


Chapter 3

J'o/ic!J Gaps Tlu: Edllnllion l'o/ic!J Uup The Train illfl Po/i<'!J Gup Tilt'. Ecollom ic I k!'d(lp~1! ('11/ l'o/iC!I Gap 111 Employer Policies The C()'!J'lLseci Social Contract



Chapter 4

t;/C'r('()/ !I/ U'S wid Min Lack (Jr/,,'eJ1'lllClti()1I
111 ('(


U 111 ired



\VllClt H-i.. Must




A VIGOHOUS NAT!ONAL I';CONOMY depends on investments by all levels of goV('rnmcnt and the private sector. States playa key role ill tnfluenctug these tuvest ment dectstous through their tax and regulatory pollctes. grant and loan programs. budget allocations. dtrect services and management of federal programs, Human resource Investments are becomtnu more and mort' crtttcal to the entire process of economic developI11t'l1tin a IlC\\' posundustrtal era, As part of its broad mission to anticipate. deftue, and analyze ('merging issues of Importance to t he states. the Council of State Planning A~l'n('i(>s has begun to explore the potential of the learning industry sector of the economy. This effort will lead to a reappraisal of till' state government role ill this area of human resource tnvestment to improve its contribution to economtc development. III part icular, CSPA wants to stimulate policymakers to make the overall U.S. system of adult training. education. and learntua more responstve to the changing needs of both employers and tndtvtdual workers. The publicatton of Tile teaming Enterprise Is an Important step toward this objective. Wh ill' CSPA does not neccssartly endorse all the author's views we believe that Dn Perelrnaus work is thought provoking and t tmciy, Challenging conven t ton al approaches to adult learntnu, work. and development. he makes a persuasive case for rethtnktuu training policy by 51ates and other actors. For Its part. CSPA is seeking to expand and refine the analysis that Lew P(,I'('I111a11 has begun in this exploratory study. We appreciate Dr. Perelmans effort and thank him for his Interest and support in a \ 'tal issue for the states.

James M. Souby
Executtve Director


I AM INnEBTI~D to the following people who have provided information. comments. ideas. su~gestions. advice. and other assistance to this project: Pat Choate (TRW); Marc Tucker (Project on Information Technology and Education): Madeleine Hernnungs (National Alltance of Business): John Clough ILl.S. House of Representatives. Committee 011 Energy and Commercel: John Jerkc (National Bureau of Standards); Hogt~r Vaughan (Vmlghan Associates): Mary Komarntckt (Public Agl'nda Foundation): 10m Bcrkshlre (Governor's Office. Illinois): Randy Harrison (Govcrnor s Office. Colorado): .Jack Brtztus (Brizius & Fosterl: Walt Plostla+l'ennsylvanta Department of Commerce): Dana Friedman and Leonard LU11d (The Conference Board): Beth Brown (formerly with the Office of'lcclmology Assessment): Caroline Wagncr: Paul Barton (National Institute for Work and Learning): Hobert Craig (American Society for Trauuuu and Development): Stephen Case (Control Video Corp.I: Sol Hurwitz (Committee for Economic Development l: Doug Bodwell (Corporation for Public Broadcasttngl: Carol Aslanian (College Board): Morris i\el'toll (Cooperative Assessment of Experiential Learning); Allen Tou~h (Ontario Institute for Studies in Education): Michael Marien (Future Survey): Kirk Bozdogan (Arthur D. Ltttle. Inc.I: Barbara Farhar Pilgrim (formerly with the Education Commission of the States): James O'Toole (University of Southern California): Larry Landry (Landry & Assoctatcs): G.B. Whitney: Stanley Foster Reed (l{el'd Assortates): John Berenyt (L.E Rothschild. Unterht'rg. Towbtn l: Thomas Kuehn (Energy Research Advisory Board); John Proctor (proctor Assoctates l: and Phyllis Gapm. I also am grateful to the World Future SocIety, the National Commtsst-m 011 Industrial Innovation. and the National Insrttute 01 Educat ron for the opportunity to attend conferences sponsored by each of those organizations during the past year that cont rtbutcd valuable information to my study.


.~.:.'; ,

.Jnn Souby, Gloria Whitman. Bert Wal{clcy.and Norma d(~F'rt'itas of the Council of State Planning Agencies provided intellectual and logistil'al support too extensive to list here. Their contributions to this publication. from the conception of the project. have been invaluable. Of course, responsibility for the oplntons and facts presented here is exclusively the authors. Lewis J. Perelman






About the Author

DR U~WIS J. PEI~r:LMAN is a consultant on policy and strategtc management. Followinu undergraduate and ~radllate study in appltcd mathematics at City College of New York. the Goddard Institute, and Larvard. he earned his doctorate in Administration. Planntng, and Social Policy at the Harvard Graduate School of Education. He has worked as a consultant to several postsecondary education organizations. tncludtng the Western Interstate Commtsston for Higher Educatton. the Ontario Educational Communrcattons Authority. and the Assocatton of American Colleges, Dr. Perelman also has worked for local (City of New York). state (Colorado). and federal (Department of Enerl-lY)~overlUnent a~t~ncl('s in a variety of policy analysis assignments. He was formerly Director of Business lnte.lt~ence at Holiday Inns. Inc .. and his clients in his private pract ice have included the Council of State Planning Agencies. the Edison Electric Instttute. the International Business Machines Corp .. the President's Commission on the Accident at Three Mile Island. and the Public Service Co. of Colorado. His experience in advanced technology research and development includes over four years on the staffs of the Solar Energy Research Institute and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. as well as being a visiting scientist at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Dr. Perelman Is the author of The Global Mind: Beyond the Limits to Growth (Mason/Charter. 1976). coeditor of Enerqi, Transitions: Long-Term Perspectives (Westview Press, 1981). and has produced over 40 other publications concerned with lcarning. management. and economic development. Dr. Perelman currently resides in Alexandria. Vtrunua.



... '

In public policy and private management. America hungers for new ideas. Of the new ideas that have percolated into the agenda of public debate in recent days. I can think of none more provocative. more tnnovauve, or more Important than Lew Perelman's vision of the "learning enterprtse. "Its central concept is a stirring challenge to conventional wisdom! Learning is the key capital-forming tndustry of the postindustrial economy. This monograph is a refreshing departure from the themes presented by a slew of reports on the state of American education issued during the past year by a variety of national task forces and commissions. Though the author concedes that the education of children is a valid concern. he correctly points out that reforms of elementary and secondary education will have little impact on the immediate human capital crisis that will put +us nation at risk for the next 20 to 30 years. In contrast. Perelman tackles head-on the crucial facts about learning and economic development that many of these other studies have Sidestepped or ignored. Because of the population bulge of the baby-boom generation. 80 percent of the people who will comprise the American work force at the beginning of the 21st century are already adults today. Of this current adult population. at least a fifth is classified as functionally illiterate. Moreover. the turbulent technological and structural changes that characterize the ongotng transition to a posttndu= t rtal economy pose the threat of employment dtslocation to virtually every adult in the work force-not just to blue-collar workers in aging smokestack industries. but to whtte-collar office workers. business executives. and even such professionals as lawyers and doctors. While the United States is doing much to modernize its stock of plant. equipment. and technology it is doing too little to modernize its human capital. What the nation lacks. but desperately requires. is an integrated approach

.1 I..,

to renewing the skill of its adult work force through continual retratntng and reeducation, Perelman presents a unique and creative approach to meeting this urgent need. First. if our chtet' concern is the competttive strength of the U.S. C('OllOI1lY during the next two decades. then Perelman insists we must focus our attention not on t he education of children but on the learumg of adults. He wants us to look beyond the interests of educational and training institutions to conccntrate on the processes of learning and the needs of the learning consumer; The l'hallcng{' to our thinking is pervasive. Perelman compels us to reconsider not only our policies. but our stereotypes. our prejudices. even our vocabulary. He tells us. in effect. he is here to talk about learning. not education or training or schooling. Jobs is a political concept that differs from work and may not have much to do with an individual's hopes for employment. Development of the community is not the same thing as development of the

Perhaps what most distinguishes this report from other recent studies in this area is Perelman's urgent concern for the costs as well as the benefits of training and educatton. The edifice of the school-a building with classrooms and teachers-is an tnetllctent and obsolescent technology. in Perelmans view. To meet the needs of an tncreastngly knowledge-based economy. we must vastly Increase the productivity of the learning process by taking full advantage of the burgeoning; power of computers and telecommunications-what Perelman calls "tclemat ic technology " Perelman's obsession with cost-effectiveness is reflected in this report's central vision of learning as a competitive industry. in stark contrast to the conventional view of education as an institutionalized social service. By cultivating; the growth of the learning industry. Perelman belleves we could actually reduce the cost and scope of government's role in education and training while meeting the needs for adult learning more effectively. There is no call here for expanded entttlernents or soctal services. What Perelman wants ;.{overnment to do is highly focused: support basic research and development

Ii'; rHOlllJ(TION

and t('l'llllOI()g_\~ transfer, and help meet the crittral need for better information about learunu; markets-e-m terms of learning needs, demands, technologtes, and suppliers. Beyond that. Pen-lman would like government to rethink its poltcies and try to gt!t out of the way of the lcarmng eu terprtse. I hope this report will be widely read. It shorld be seriously studied by public and private poltcymukers: by funding <l.gell<:it'sInvest lug resources ill training. educa lion. and econouuc developmcn t: by bus tness execu t Ives: and by labor leaders, I suspect that people in the many organizations that constttute the learntug industry will be esprcially excited by Perelman's vision of their crucial role in a changing economy. Ultimately. there is a valuable 111essage of hope III these pa~cs for every adult in the nations work force: the same technology that is transforming work call increase our power to learn and to choose a future. Pcrelmans st udy has been exploratory. His report offers new ideas and raises important questions that demand a substantial Investment of resources to analyze as thoroughly as thev should be. I hope this report will stimulate the support needed for the Council of State Planning AgcllC'le~ and ot her organtzat ions to carry this work forward. Still. this is a milestone statement in the national debatt' SWirling about work and learutug, and about education and the economy I believe Perclmai i s concept of the leurntnu enterprise will force a baste change In the terms of this debate. His report is dest Ined to be controversial. But tilt' new ideas it offers an' just what Amertca needs
today . Pat Choate

Sen ior Poltcy Analys t.

THW, Inc.


Executive Summary
THE IU:Cl<:NT l"HENZY over education-that is. children and schools=-has obscured an adult learning crtsts that is what really will put this nations economy at risk between now and the beginning of the next century. The postindustrial economy demands a new kind of learning enterprise. focused on adults rather than children. on learning rather than education. on technology rather than tnstttuttons. and on private competition rather than public administration. Structural transformation of the world economy is leading to a human capt tal crisis in America as workers are compelled to adapt their knowledge and skill to new technological and organizational requirements. The human costs of the transition to a new economy are already evident. Between 3.5 million and 4 million U.S. workers are structurally unemployed today. Automation and foreign competltton have taken the jobs of thousands of industrial workers. and will eliminate 10 m tlllon to 15 million manufacturing jobs by the next decade. Out. contrary to popular perception. the economic transformation affects all working Americans. not Just blue-collar workers in aging "smokestack" industries. Up to half of today's office Jobs will be elimtnateu by automation. As the baby-boom generation ages. the population of WOUld-bemanagers is growing twice as fast as the number of management jobs, Only half the doctors in private practice today are working at full capacity. and there will be a surplus of 0\'('1" 100.000 physicians In the 1990s. The problem Is not simply a shortage of jJ~s but a hi,gh rate of obsolescence of working skills and knowledge. For example. the amalgamation and automation of financial services demand a new kind of gt'neral practitioner knowledgeable about real estate. savtngs. Investments. cash manaaement. and customer relations. Physicians need to invest less effort in simply memorizing facts and greater effort in learning to use computers to manage

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data. dlagnose disease, and control costs, American bustIWSS executives need to learn how to manage people in a participatory culture and how to compete in international markets. Manufuct u :'ill~ work tncreasmgly requ in's highly creative abtltttrs in computer-based design and production. Economic security in the postindustrial economy depends less all expertise and more on./7expertise-the ability to continually adapt indtvidual knowledge and sktll. Unless we in America greatly increase the flexibility of our human capital. tile ecouonuc transtt lon threatens turbulent, even Violent. social upheaval as the economic ambitions of a major portion of the worklng population become tucreastngly frustrated. Learnlng by the mainstream of work-force adults will be essen t tal to resolve th is crisis. Learning is the key to a mort' competitive. productive economy. Learning i~' also the key to preservtng the hopes of American workers at all levels for indtvtdual economic security and advancement. But adult learntnu in the United States today is largely ail "invisible system" whose scope and function arc widely misunderstood and whose critical importance to ceonomic development Is inadequately appreciated. Virtually the entire adult population needs retraining and new learning to be economically productive. A fifth of the present adult population is functionally Illiterate. Most of the rest-c-tncludrnu skilled workers. managers. and professtonals-c-have knowledge and skills that technological change is rendertnu obsolete, Reforms of elementary and secondary educat ion. however justtfted. will have lillie impact Oil these urgent adult learning needs before t he next century. Over three-quarters of the U.S, labor force ill the year 2000 will be people who are working-age adults today. Furthermore. the dist tnct ion commonly made between t raining and educat ion is IlOW obsolete. 'J)-aining is usually drftnrd as instruction intended to convey jobspectltr competency while educatioTl is held to he ('011cerned with broader, more general knowledue and skill. Today. traditional training programs often fail because of tht' broad lack of baste skills or Iunct ioual ltterucy xvi


among prospect tve students. One-third of dislocated workers lack a high school diploma. and another third have diplomas hut arc still functionally illiterate. On the other hand. much of postsecondary education has failed to meet students' expectations for an economic payoff. The most common single reason adults give for participating in organized learning is to advance in the work world. Yet the irrelevancy of much of the curriculum and process of formal education to real work opportunities has led to a growing mass of overeducated underemployed adults. Simply "more education" will not solve America's human capital crisis. In this decade. a surplus of a quartermillion college graduates each year will mean that nearly half of those who go to work after graduation will not ~et the kind of job traditionally held by college graduates. Today's college graduates are twice as likely to be working in a blue-collar or service job as they were in 1970. Tracht tonal training and educat tonal institu tions serve only a minority of adult learning needs today and are too li,...,ited and inefficient to supply the burgeoning human capital requirements of tomorrow's economy. While the costs of computers and telecommunications have been falling precipitously. the cost of classroom instruction has been rising much faster than the Inflation rate. The tnstttuttonr ltzed instruction of the industrial age is inadequate for the postindustrial era. The emergence of a knowledge-based economy requires a new synthesis of the functions of training. educat ion. and other forms of communication and learning under the single umbrella of the learning enterprise, In the postindustrial age. the learning enterprise will no longer be a parochial social service. but is destined to become the keystone industry ot the emerging fourth sector of the economy-the knowledge sector. By the beginning of the next century, three-quarters of the jobs in the U.S. economy will involve creating and processtnu knowledge. Knowledge workers will find that continual learrung is not only a prerequisite of employment but is a major form of work. Rupid advances in telemattv technology-fusing the power of computers with tile reach of u-lecommunrrattons xvn



-now present the opportunity to create all entrepreneurial. compet Hive. consumer-directed. hi~h-tlchnology. adult learurng industry. This new learning e-iterprtse could actually reduce the burden ofgovcrnmenl CHi It profitably serves the '.~rowing needs of employers and workers for flexible. adaptable human capital. But realizing this opportunity will require rethinking some basic poltctes=-both public and private. Conventional policies concerning education. training. economic development. the relationship between employer and worker. and the distribution of responsibility for investment ill human capital arc broadly unresponsive to the challenges of the post industrial age. In general. the relevant policies are aimed more at protecting the holders of extstmg jobs from the threat of change than at facilitating work transitions. The underlying theme is not simply that the worker is entitled to employment. but that the current holder of H particularly defined job has a proprietary interest in that position. There is. throughout our ell tire national system of employment. a voracious hunger for "tenure." This policy paradigm delays the necessary adaptation of the entire U.S. economy to the forces of global competition and technological change. It largely omits any systematic process for adapting the knowledge and skill of workers at all levels to changtna needs and opportunities. The major barrier to reforming this obsolete policy framework. and to creattng the kind oflearntng enterprise needed by a new economy is an appalltng lack of timely and accurate Information about the entire system of adult learning in the United States. We need more information about: the demands for adult learning by both individuals and employers: the needs for learning ill terms of chmqing occupational rcqutn-menrs and opportuntt res: the state of tile art and projected trends in learning
tl'chnologies: and

tht' shape of the marker. ill terms of the suppliers karnillg products and services .


.xvi ii

EX(.;Clmvr.; SUMMAH\'

Not only arc there dettcits of tnformatton in all these categories. hut there is a total lark of integration or the information t hat does exist to provide a comprehensive map-the proverbial "big plcturev=-of the learning enterprise as an mdust ry, This lack of tnform, ... tton handicaps the suppliers Ill' the learning enterprtse, who need to know more about the demands and technologies of learning markets. consumers. who Bred better guidance about the options avatlablc to mel" learning needs: and polrcyrnakers. who need to find more productive ways to meet our economy's ~ro\Ving need for flexible human capital. In addttton to developing beth. r information about the adult learlling system, public and private polteymakers should consider the tollowtns; options for action: Reduce emphasis on academic degrees. Focus on evaluattou of competency and achievement. Expand research, development. and transfer of learning tl'('hllolo~\'. Develop human capital invest ment advisory services. Focus telemat tcs industry products and services on the adult Iearnrru; market. Revise the finant'ing of human capital development. DefUSing a potent rally explostvr human capnal crisis and capturing the opportunities of a new. postindustrial economy require cooperative action ;10\\' by business. gover nnu-nt. worker oruantzauons, and others to build a new
learning enterprise'.




Human Capital Crisis: Four Fs

HUMAN CAPITAL is the combination of innate talent. knowledge. skill. ami experience that makes each human Cl valuable contrtbu.or to economic production. Learning is the process through which human capital grows. As we proceed through the transition to a I1('W. postindustrial economy human capital and the learntnj; that generates it are becoming ever more crtt tcal to healthy economic developrnen t. Economist John Kendrtck attributes 22 percent of the growt h in Amertca s tot al factor product Ivity between 1948 and 1966 to till' edurut lon and training that develop human capital. For the period W66 to 1977. he finds that the education and training of the labor force account for 54 percent of the much lower rate of producttvity growth that the U.S. economy has expertenced since the early 1970s.1 Management expert Peter Drucker concludes: "TIH.~ switch to knowledge work as the economy's growth nrea and the large-scale movement to new technology mean above all that producuvtty will illcreasingly be deterrntned by the knowledge and skill workers put into their task. ":l At the same t ime that human capital is becomtnu the key requirement of economic development: America's humall capital "infrastructure" is being exposed as critically Inadequate. The chief dimensions of this looming human caplul crisis can be surnmartzcd under four Fs: Function. Fit. Flexibility. and Frustration.

Some 20 percent of American adults are Iunct tonally illitl'ratt'-lIllubh' to read ajo}) notice. fill out a job application. or make challgc.:1 Twenty nullton English-splaking .

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nattvc-born American adults read or write so poorly u.at they "have trouble iwIding jobs or suffer loss of self-esteem." according to the International Readtru; Association." Not only does functtonal Illlte.acy handicap the individuals affected. it imposes enormous costs on American employers. For example. Vunasco Corp .. H small West Virginia firm. esttmatcs that tlltteracy costs it $25.000 per year, or 15 percent of it!; hourly payroll. In lost product tvit~I.r) Before the breakup of the Bell system. AT&T was spending sn million a year to teach 14.000 employees basic reading and math. {j The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) expects to spend 820.4 million Oil training in basic skills in 1984. an increase or over 40 percent from W79.7 Some experts guess that a fifth or even a quarter of the 830 b1l11011 to 850 billion corporattons spend each year 011 employee tratntng .s devoted simply to remedying functional dcflctenctes in bask sktlls. ~

A growing number of adults have knowledge and skills which. though extenstve. no longer fit th technological and other requirements of a rapidly lhang;ing economy. Most likely to be displaced by the new wave of automation and cost-cutting are not the unskilled. entrylevel workers. bu t rather the experienced-and expenstve=-skttlcd blue-collar workers. while-collar middle mauauers in bus! ness and JJ;ov~r.'men t. and even professtonals such as lawyers and doctors. Todav between 3.5 million and 4 million U.S. workers an' structurally unemployed-that is. faced with the perrnanent loss of their old jobs because of shifts in the economy. H T11t co mbt nat ton of robou zat ion and foreran compeuuon is expected to lead to the displacement of 10 million to 15 million manufacturing workers and a similar number of service workers by the next decade." More wh lt e-collu r workers than blue-collar workers will haw their careers disrupted by new technology. Peter Cunmnuhum. president ofINPUT Corp .. cst imutes that 20 penent to 50 pert-cut of todays oflkt' jobs will be eltrntnated bv automat iou.!" 2
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One by-product of t he growth of the knowledge sector and the spread of tr-lemat ie nx-hnologn-s (that is. the combination of corn puters and u-lecomrn till Irat lu: IS) is the in(Tl'aslng transience and dynamism of work. lhday. 'Sollie 36 percent of the adult working popu'nuon is either ill a work transit ion or auttctpat Ing oue-i-cuch year some 15 million nu-n and women change their occupnttcn."! Bet ween 15 percen 1 and 20 pert-en t of t he work force is employed part-time. Temporary services. whicil20 years ago was a S159-l11illion-a-Yl'ar tudust ry employing only 400.000 pea pic mostly In secretarial and clertcal jobs, today has grown to 85 billion in annual sal. 0;; ami employs 4 million people annually in Industrial. marketing. technical. security. legal. accounttng, health care. and executive posit Ions. in addition to its traditional otttce jobs.!-' And. because teleuiattc tedll1ology permits knowledge work to be totally dccentraltzed. by the next century as many as 30 percent of American WOI'I{cl's arc projected to be "telecomrnu ters"-worklng outside of any factory or office, If America is to regain its compettt tve ('(lge in the world economy, workers and managers will have to be more tlextble to adapt their knowledge and skills to the rapidly dHlI1gillg requirements of technolr . tical innovation and tuu-ru.uronal competition. TtH' need for flexible. adaptive human ('''pitai affl'l'ts vlrtually every member of tlu- adult work force and creatt-s all 1mprcccde 11 ted requtrenu-nt for couttnuul adult n-tranuru; Bernard Anderson of till' Hocl<dC'ller Foundation claims that "workers tvptcally will have to be rrtramed ('Vl'ry tour or livl' yl'<.lI"S for dtfferr nt occuputtonal careers."!:' And, a n-cent report by t hr U,S. Congress' Office of 1i.'l'I1llolog_\,J\S~t'SSIlH'lIt (OTA) conrludes: "The day is Ias t approach IIlg wlu-n ellreer- n-la ti-d t ra I11 Ilg and educai lion at all occup.u ronal levels will be a lttelonu process and p()ssibl~' a mundutory 011('. "11

Fn istration
The "r..urrh l" is worker trustr.utou. dangerous factor uudcrlyuu; the loomttu;
II is t lu- most




crtsts, and it results from the failure to deal adequately with the needs represented by the previous three. A society that has a large number of workers unprepared to tuner ion product tvelv, that employs a work force with mostly obsolescent skills. and that lacks a systematic process to qutckly adapt its human capital to chan~in~ technologies and' .arket condt ttons is a society in j~opardy. A structural economtc revolution contains the thr-c: of turbulent. even violent. social upheaval as the economic: ambitions of a major portion of t!Jc working population become increasingly frust rater'. The past technologtcal revolutions in agriculture and manufacturtng were marked by strikes. riots. ar,d rebellions: the transition to a postindustrial economy could be equally distressed. The danger of worker frustrat ion depends not only on the number of available jobs. but also on occupational status. the quality of work. and the opportunities for advancement and mobility. In fact. frustrations are growing today along all these dimensions.

A Polarized Work Force

A recent report on the future of work by the AFL-CIO agonized particularly about the prospect of a polarized work force:
At the top will be a few executives. seit'n! ists and engtneers. professtonals, and managers. pertormtng hl~h-It'\'el. creauve. hl~h-pal<l full-time jobs In a ~(}od work euvtronment. ... At the bottom will be low-paid workers performtna relattvely simple. low-skill. dull. routine, hl~h-tllrno\'t'r jobs In a poor work envtronment. ... Betweeu these two major tiers will be fewer and fewer permanent. well-paid. full-time. skilled. seml-sktlled. and craft production and matntenance jobs which in t he past have offered hope and opportunity and upward mobility to workers who start ill low-paid. entrylevel jobs. Many nuddle-manuuement jobs also will be

IAI two-t ler work force is developing ....

Ironically. labor unions themselves may be contributing to tlu: polarization of the work force through their growing (lc('cpta'l('(' of two-tier contracts. These contracts.


which recently have been signed with such firms as Boeing. Lockheed. McDonnell Douglas. Giant Food. Safeway Stores. American Airlines. Briggs & Stratton. and Dow Chemical. preserve the wages of existing union members by sharply reducing-up to 50 percent in some cases-the wages paid to IWW employees.!" AFL-CIO economist John Zalusky predicts that such agreements will lead to a plunge in producttvtty in future years. when companies have two distinct employee classes receiving unequal pay for equal work.!?

A Threatened Professional Class

The changes in required skills and obsolescence of middle-class work may provoke even greater frustration among managers and professionals than among industrial workers. For this group. the impact of technological change and structural economic shifts is compounded by the pressures of the demographic wave produced by the "baby boom" and subsequent "baby bust." For example. from 1980 to 1990. the number of people 35 to 44 years old. the prime age for middle managers. will increase 42 percent. However. the Bureau of Labor Stattstics (BLSI projects that jobs for middle managers will increase by only 19 percent.!" The intense competition for executive jobs will be further inflamed by the just demands of a steadily growing number of women-two of every three entrants to the work force during this decade-and minorities for their share of leadership positions. Professions. such as law and medicine. are being glutted by the baby-boom generation: In the past 10 yt'ars. the number of lawyers in the United States Arc\\' by 83 percent and may double in the next decade. America now has five times more lawyers per capita than West Germany. 10 times more than France. and 20 times more than Japan. The legal profession is troubled more and more by declining income. underemployment. and even unemployment. 19 The number of licensed physicians went from 334.000 in 1970 to 490.000 today and is expected to grow to 536.000 in 1990. when there will be a surplus of 63.000

.. ,)
. 'wi

..~ .

medical doc-tors. Even now, only 5~~ percent of physicians ill private practice are working at full capacttyv" Not only are such professions oversupplied. but technolouical progress-c-part tcularly In t he advanced computer technologies labeled artificial tntelltgence (Al)--may have as broad an impact 011 the number and quality of these jobs as robotics is havuu; on industrial (Tans. For example. researchers now are worktng 011 "expert systems" that can perform tilt' diagnosl it.' functions normally provided by a highl)' trained physician. Others are working on machines that seem to think as lawyers do, ~I

Things to Come
Some econom ist s aruue that the frustrations and fears th.:.t attend terhnoloutral tnnovat ion are unfounded. In the past. they note. terhnologtcal chanue always led to greater prospcrtty, wider employment opportun it it's. and tncreusmgly productive work. But Nobel-laureate economist Wasslly Lcont tef observes that it was a unique charartertst ic of the iechnology of the Industrtal a.Ut' that created demand for progresstvely skilled labor which. III turn. produced a growing mtddle class, In the new postindustrial wave or automation, says Leont ief, "not only the physical but also the controlling 'mental' Iunctions Involved ill the production of goods and services run be performed without the participation of hurnau labor;" And thus. the new automat ton may lead to ;~ gelleral reduction in employment opport urn tit's.:l:l A portent or these m-uds mav be seen in .Japan, a bellwether nation that has led the Un ited States in industrial automat ton. III Iar t. the tradition or"lif'etillle employmeut " is vanishing in .Japan. and t he country is st ruuglill.~ to find adequate employment opportunn tes for its workers. Part-unu- employment is gro\\,ing rapidly: in superrnarkets. for Iusuuu:e. 44 percent of employees are now part-tuners. up from ~3:3pcrrvnr ill 1976. Skilled marhtutsts are heuu; rl'placed by part-t inu: women workers. Although till' official unemplovuu-nt rat e ill Japan Sl't'IIlS low b)' U.S. stundards. disgllist'd joblt'Ssl1t'ss--ex-


Ct'Ss employees

who have no real work 10 dO-is !lOW esttmau-d at 10 percent of the labor f01'('t" up from ~~ l)t'lTl'Jlt in 1979. Su perfluous \\'11 ue-rollar workers an' called "wlndow wan-hers" beruuse they haw nothtng 10 do but 1001, out tilt.' Window all day Japan's usuully dortle labor unions have become resttve. They an' campaigning 10 gt't the workweek shortened. to slow I he .141'O\\'t h of part -I inu- work and to spread work by persuading workers 10 rake all paid vacation tinw,l:~



The Fourth Sector

LEADliWi FUTUHlSTS-l)allid



Totflcr, ami

.Iohu l\;aishitt-tdl tiS (luu w aft' at uu- rhreshok! of all t'C'OllOlllir ! ranstormut ion as S\\,{,t'pin~ as I he i\~riClll! ural

Ri-voluuun and t hv Industrial Rrvuluttou: t hr rise or a posl indust nul ('l'OnOlll,\', in whirh tntornuu ion. conununt(';111011. and vxper: is(' ber-ouuIlit, IH'~'fa('lOrs of ('('OllOIl1il' pr-rtornuuu-r. Tilt, \\"I\'t':~ Ill' It'l'hllolol.!ical chu IIgt' rut a i! musstv ...h iIt sill! lit' d ist rthu t inn of em pIOYI1H'11land Ihe na! lire o:



('1I1plo."l'd 70

lorct';ls n'ITlIll~' as H):lO, 1I0W I Itt' work lorn' und \\'iIl,HTIJlII11 Illt'jl)\),"\ ill t lu- l!I~H)s_;'I

of tlu: lallor t'lIlplo~'s 0111,\' 4 P('IT("II for onlv 2,5 P('ITl nt of



:\1.lIll1fil('lllrilll.!, wlmh providt-d 1)1ll'Ill' ('\'('1-,\' four Anu-rir.u: jll!>s in 1~)(;{), ,\('('CllIIII('d for oulv om- of (''.'('1\' fin' jobs ill 1~IH()urcl will .utouru lor ft'\\'(T i h.ui 011(' [oh ill . -tx IJ,\' lilt, 1~1~IOs,h 'I()da~', 0111\'10 P('IT('111 01 Ih~'U,S, Iahnr IlInT '}('lllall,\' Illakl's ;1 prudurt . and Ilu: 1I111l1ill'r \\,111 (It-dill!' nvr-r III(' IIt'XI dl'l'd<it' til 0111,\' P('I,(,t'llt 10 !)


lroru IQ,t(1 III lW-i(), st'n'il't' induxt ru-x' shun- or IOlnl vn mlovuu-ut wenr Iroin ,I;) 1)I'1,(,t'lIl III uhou I 70 pr rce-nt , ;111(1. ill Iltt' 1It',\1 <1('(':1<1(', i lu: sluft 10 1I prcdnmu uuuly s('I'\'iu's-Il<lsl'd l'('()lIl1ltl~' wtll 1)(' IIl'al'l~' l'lIl1lplt'tl"~';-


inn "'W('pl 11t(, ;1l2,t'iclIlllIral s('('lor, ;1 sl'('IIIt' \\,;IS tlbl('11l .tl isorh t l n: displill'l'<! Iilrllll'rs .u nl Ikld hu n ds. Wluu .uu om.u inn 1001, oil ill nuuu u.ut urtuu .i n l'.\P;llldilll! st'l'\'in':-o "('('llIr provider! IIt'\\' joil oppurt u n i t it'S, HilI t l u: P""'! :11<111",1 rlill I illt, III .u n on r.u run I" cluu in.u uuz Ilion' ",I,illt'li jlliJ...ill S('IYil'('''' i l urn
i iz.u

Wl u-n nu-r-h.u


, .1


even ill ot her sectors. raising the questions: Where are the dlspluced workers gOillg to go'? Where are the IWWjob opportumttes going to be found? The most hopeful answer lit's ill the growth of the knowledge sector as a u 11Iquc. Iou rth sectur 0:' the CCOIlomy (after agriculture, mintuu/construcuon/man ulacturing, and services). Knowledue-work is rapidly hcrom iIlg t he major 1()I'1ll of em ployrnen t . Over the past 40 years, every 100 manutart u ring jobs lost were replaced wit h 250 of what Davld Birch of the Massachusetts Institute of 'lcchnology (MIT) calls "thouuhtwarc" jobs.:lH Lv the Iwgilllling of the next century, nearly thrce-quurters of Amcrtcan workers could be employed in knowledue related jobs-e-prrformtna Iunctlons that requtrr uniquely human illtl'lligellcl', imagination, and creat ivily,

The Learning Enterprise: A Key Industry

If tltt' bright opportunity offered by the knowledge l'('0I1omy is to be reulizert. eonunuul learning by the rnatnstream of work-font' adults must become a centra! ceonornu- entl'Iprise-thl' keystone Industry of the fourth sector, I'l'oplt doing knowledue work will find that the skills required to create and prm-ess knowledge producnvi-lv are the basil' skills of leaming. Ll'arning, then. will 1101 only be ner-ded to fal'i1i!ult' work-lue transitions. but will he a major form olwork ill the l'11lt'rging economy Till' roll' of tilt' Ill'\\'II.'Clrnillfl enterprise in the post mdustrtnl cvouomv is Iar 1ll00T pr-rvastve and pruduct tve t hun that of tilt' t rndl t lonul. industrial-,Igt' institutions of adult edurut iou and traillillg. Till' new l'('011Om), demands an adult ll'arl1illg S~'stl'1I1that is vntu-pn-neurtal. compet ltive. and consunu-r din-cu-d. and that employs the most powerful and l'ITi('il'l1t 1ll0dt'J'I1 Informauon techuoloatcs. Till' toundauon of till' new learninq enterprise is aln-acly ill plarc. Basi<.' research ill cognitivt' s('it'IH'f' and artificial i:ltdli~l'IH't' is vonsuuulv expandnu; knowledge or tltl' k-arn im; proct'ss. Bllrgl'onill.~ compu n-r lind cornmunuauon t('C'ill1ol(Jgit'S an: t'xploding tilt' ddi\,l'ry medta for inst rut ronal Sl'I'\'it'l'S. Propril,t'Il;" schools an' growing


rapidly, Computer software producers have targeted educat lon and training as IH'~'markets, Even conventtonal higher edurarion tusutuuons, faced with a declining populut ion of t rad it tonal IH- to 22-year-old st udell ts, are becorn in,~ more compeut ive a nd consumer-orten ted, However, to culnvate tile further development of the lcarntnu enterprise. we need 10 I'('('ognize and then rel'tity ~011lt'crit trul ~aps ill existing public and private poltcies com -erni HI.!; cducu I Ion. 11'<\n ing. evouorn ie developmen t, i manuucmcnr. and human capital.




Policy (laps
PUBLIC AND PHIVATE POLICIES are lagging behind the challenges presented by the transition to the knowledge economy. The kind of learning enterprise that will be critical to the fourth sector of the emerging economy falls within the gaps in the existing policies of both government and employers. In general. the relevant policies. both public and private. are aimed more at protecting the holders of existing jobs from the threat of change than at facilitating work transitions: Public employment and training programs such as the defunct Comprehensive Employment and Training Act (CETA) or the Trade Adjustment and Assistance Act have worked. in practice. to protect the jobs of the employed by 'ruytng off the unemployed with income maintenance. Through seniority rules. acceptance of "two-tier" contracts. and similar practices. unions work to preserve existing jobs and income of their employed members. Corporate poltctes such as "golden parachutes" and "y otsoned pills" are designed to protect the jobs and income of senior management executives. Professional societies have collaborated with the state to regulate the supply of practitioners and thereby shield their members from competition.

The underlying theme is not simply that the worker is entitled to employment. but that the current holder of a part icularly defined job has a proprietary interest in that position. There is. throughout our entire national system of employment. a voracious hunger for tenure.



This policy paradigm delays the necessary adaptauon of the entire U.S. economy to the forces of global competition and technological change. It largelv omits any systemattc process for adapting the knowledge and skills of workers at all levels to changing needs and opportunities. Convent ional policies concerning education. training. economic development. the relationship between employer and worker, and the dtstrthutton of responsibility for investment in human capital are broadly unresponsive to the challenges of the postindustrial age.

'The Education Policy Gap

At a time when t he adult working population confronts a festering crlsts of inability to function. poor fit of skills to \\'01'1(.. Insufficient tlextbiltty to adapt \0 new conditions. and growing frustration in the face of change. public education policy is fundamentally misdlrected. The flourishing debate about education is doing little to defuse America's human capital crisis. because the framework of education policy so far remains fixated on youth Instead of adults. on established institutions rather than innovative technologies. on pay rather than productivity. and on the interests of providers rat her than the needs of consumers. Last year. a slew of nat tonal commission reports and studies focused political attention on the poor performance of Ann-rica's schools. /\. consistent theme of such reports as A Nation at Risk: Tilt' ltnpercuiuejor EdllCaliolla[ Reiorn: (U.S. Dept. of Education. 19H3) is that the country's economic development depends on improving dementary and secondary educat ton. Although the welfare of our children is an important (,OUCCI'Il. t hese report s have had the un fort unat t' erfe('t of muddling public perception of tilt' critu-al relat ionshtp betWCt'11 k-aruun; and economtc development. We must recognizl' that:
t lu: bulk of the baby-boom gt'IltTatioll is already past school agt'-o\'t'r threo-quaru-rs of tlu- people who will comprise the /\.111('ri(,<l11 work foret' of the yeur 2000 art' adults toduv:


a fifth of t lu: existillg adult \\'01'1, forct' is Iunctlonally illiteratc-thlTt, arc more adult tlltu-rutvs ill the United Statl's than students in prtvau: and public secondary schools: rOrtTastl'rS alit kipatt' that tl'dlllological and ('collomie dl<lng(' will rumpel tlu: t1\'prag(' worker to change curvcrs four t iuu-s or more durtnu a worktru; ltfet inll'-"lil"t-iollg learm-rs' is 110 longt')' a euphemlsm fur dtlettuuu-s and ltohbylst hut un ubsolutr lll'lTSSity of ceonouu rornpvt it tun.

Wh.u this 1l1t',II1S is that. if WI' could wave a magiC wand and l'reate perrtTt rh-uu-n tnrv ami secondary schools tomorrow t lu: result (however drstrabkfor our children) would haw 110 major impact on the U,S, economy for the I1l'Xt two to three dl'l'adt's, 1n short, t lu: cu rrcn t Ire IIzy over "cd uca t ion" (cit Ildren <111<.1 schools) obscures an adult [('umillf/ crisis that is what n-nllv will put this nation's crunomy "at risk" between now and the iJegillning of the next century lksidt's till' iJias toward youth. curn-nt edui-at ion polu-v also u-uds to br infatuated with the amount of cducat iou and IIt'gitTts i lu- qunl itv of leurntnu. its econumkn-lev.uuc. and tilt' Ill,t'd for producuvuy and innovauon in t lu: pro{'t'ssl'S of learn ing,

Overeducation and Underemployment

Wltatt'\'t'l' 111<1,\' t lu: sulut iun to tilt' "Iour Fs" olAmerbt, il'(I'S loom n u; humuu capitul crtxts. suuplv more edurut ion ('allllot bt' it. "If anythtnu." wrttvs Tl10111a~ .J, Moore, "the t'dlll'atiOll<l1 ('stabhs!tlllt'lll is pan oj t lu: problem. In its t'llort to .u tr.ut st uch-u ts and obtain fl'dl'ral subsidies, it has otuu ovi-rsold ('0 IIq.. l'rt'dt'lltials !,t' as a t tcket to good jobs, ":~'I Tlu- I"at'ts illdicatt' that il"OUI' educ.u iouul poltcv b ('011('('I'IIt'd olll~' ',vii h tilt, (lIlIOIl1!l of sl'hoolillg, t lu- United Slates I1ta~' have too murh 01 it: t Itt' uumln-r oj l'ollt'gt'-l'<iuratt'd mcmlx-rs of the work rOnT !.!rt'\\' h~' 12(j PtT('t'lIt sill('e ID70: over I hr pasl <I ('('a <It', graduatl' school cnrollnu-ut illrrvascd 1J~' 22A pl'ITl'llt: 1:)

1'1'0111 1973 to 1981. the number of institutions offering doctorate degrees grew 36 percent to 452. and the number offering masters degrees grew 22 percen t to 6G2.:m The result of all this sprawl of higher education not only has been a decline in quality-a "pall of mediocrity" threatens graduate educat ion according to a recent study for the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of 'leaching-but also a rising tide of overeducated underemploued graduates:

in the 19708. one-fifth of college graduates took jobs that did llOl require a college degree: 25 to 35 percent of recent college graduates are estimated to be underemployed: in the 1980s. nearly half of those who go to work after graduation will not get the kind ofjob traditionally held by col leur graduates-there will be a surplus of 200.000 to :300.000 graduates per year: in a study of more than 20.000 members of the hi.~h school class of 1972. 43 percen t of t hose with a college degn'(' were not doing colleue-levcl work: t he number of college graduates sl'l'ldng work grew tlin'(' umes taster than the total work force since 1970: ~O\'enlm('nt Indlrer-tlv and directly gCl1cr<ltt'ci 50 pern'nl of all jobs held b~' college grad. :1\('S in 1980. campa fed wit h only abou t OI1l'-t h iI'd of all employment: and ill 19H2, ('ollt'gt' gradu<ltt's \\'('IT twice as likclv to be worki l1g ina blue-colla r or service job as they were 12 years earln-r.-'!

A .I.?;l'I1l'ratioIl a!.!o, virt ually any invest mcnt ill ilion' education offered an at t rac-t tvr rate of return-i-thc cost of education was 11101'('t han paid bark hy the g'Tall'r inc-omes onuuandcd h~' college graduatl's and those with advaurvd dq,!rt'l's, But thr n-turn 011 tnvest r. lit in genertr educ.u ion has 1)l,{,0ll1l' i1HTl'asillp;Iy dubious for all ('OIH'lTIIl'd. The soaril1g costs of traditional classroom tnst ruct ton combined wit h tht' unvertuin employment opport uutt ies for graduatt's ill all but a u-w. ill-demand tt'ellI1iral nl'lds have made tilt' tnvr-st ment in cdur-atton far mort' riskv ;\;o\\" whok- tnst nut tuns as well as Iq.!iolls 01


graduC:ltt's are defau lt ing on go\,cnlI11t'nt-insured loans. The door of opportuntty 011(,l' offered by "more education" is steadily dosing,

Productivity and Thchnology in Education

Perhaps the most serious policy gap in this field, and edurattous most serious shortcoming, is the studied indifference to product tvity in educat ion al tn s t tt u t ions which is marched by a glacial rate of tr-cnnolouk-al Innovat ion. The predomtnan t ledmoiogy of formal education ranges from nearly 100 to over 1,000 years old, In the midst of an information revolution, formal educalion seems to be standing still or even going backwards. III a study by the late II hit'! de !.;ola Pool at MIT of trends in the productivity of 17 communtranons media over the period 1960 10 1977. "education" [t.t: .. r1aSSI'OOI1l inst rurtlon) W;lS the only 011t' to show a "striking increase in cost": nearly all the ot hr-rs showed a moderate to drumatre dcchn in cost. :l<! In 19H2. wlule gt'lwral consumer prices rose kss than 4 percent. cducat ton-rcluted consumer costs I'Os(' 12 perrent .'!" The grf'at clamor ill educauonal pohry is over faculty salaries. At tilt, l'1e1lll'lItary/s(,(,OIHiary level. cornpeu-nt math and s('il'!I('l' teachers haw been lun-d to entry-level jobs ill industry that pay 40 perc-rut or 50 percent more tr.an till' salarv of all cxpertcnced tearlu-r, In coll('ges and untverstues. tip to half the faculty jobs in Stich high-demaud In-Ids as ('OIllIH iu-r scil'Ill'(', dl'('1 rual l'llginet.'rinL!;, ancl ucnet ics go unfilled. (~t'Ill' Bottoms or lilt' American Vorut Ioual Assor-tatton puint s out t hut . ill vocauonal edu('il t ion ilist iIII t ions, mauv graduales gel h ight'1' salaries than hegilll1illL!; t('(lcilil1ti; stalr,:I. Amotu; till' m.mv 1'('('(,lIt reports Oil educational policy, there Sl'('IIlS 10 IH' a ('OIl~('I1SllS rh.u h i~~h('r pay--t'it her acruss-t he-board. for high-dl'IIl<lIH! f'it'lds. or base-d on SOIllC ('OIH'('pt of "nu-rt t "-is Il('pd('d to at I rart and hold hi.L!;lwr-('alibt'r 1t"Hllers. Yet t 11('logi(' now cl(,(,t'ptt'd in such industries as slt'd. uutomobtk-s. mar-himtools, and airlilies-thaI pa~' m us t IH' proporuonul 10 producuvnv-> gl'lll'l'all.\ has 1I0t lx-en applied 10 ('dIlC<ltioll.




If it were technoloutcally infeasible to increase Ow productivity of education. this attitude might be understandable, But the revolution now under way ill computation and u-lecommuntcauon technology actually offers the opportun tty to vastly expand the product Ivtty of the learning process for learners of all ages, A recent study of tnstructtonal tcchnology by OTA concluded that:
Costs for labor-mtenstve educat Ion and training methods ront tnue to cltrnb faster than t he Inflation rate. while costs for Information technology ron 1Inue 10 drop pre('iplto\lsly, These trends will result In a steadily growing number of appltcat tons tn which technology-based instruct ton is dearly t he most cost-elfecttve method, :1;'

And. a research conference Oil computers in educauon sponsored by tilt' U,S, Department of Education coneluded that "strtk ing tmprovement in the quality and productivity of instructional computer systems is attainable with a coherent and sustained research investment. ":Ih A few insutut ions are pushing technologic'll Innovation, At MIT. Projcc: Athena. inttiated by Dean Jerry Wilson of the SdlOOI of clIgilll'('rlng. is a five-year plan to explore the use of computers in tcachnu; with 850 million in equipment and other support donated by IUM and Digital Equipment Corp."? And Carnegte-Mellon University, a leader in applying computers Widely to instruction in the arts and humantt it's in addit ion to science and technical Iu-lds. is plallning to create an in tegrated network, with help from IBM. linl,ing up to H.OOO campus computers, :11-1 Nevertheless, rather i han emphastze the computer as a nudtum to expand t he productivity of instruction. many 01 t he recen t edurat ion reports focus 011 making t he COI11purer a sll/~j('('1 of tnstruct tou. all adjunct component of "Iiu-rary" to he conveyed through traditional classroom nu-t hods, Marc Tucker, dltT('tor of tilt' Canwgit' Corporations I'roject Oil Instructional Tt'dllwlog_\' and Eduvat ion. condemns this undenry bluntly: "Whut s going Oil in the majori t~ of sthools ill tilt' numr of com pu t er Itterac: is IIIisgu tded. ":I!' Compuu-i lit{'racy cannot ht' tau~lll lx-ruuse t lu- techI1olog_\' is evolvinu so rapidly that tur rent k nowledue heconu-s obsolete ill a matter of months. Computer li:l'nl('Y


need not be taught because the technology Is rapidly becoming so "USCI' friendly" that tilt' vast majority of compurer users will never need to know mort> about how a computer works than they can learn ill a few minutes. "Five years from now." says Esther Dyson. president of Elsveuturc. publisher of a respected computer Industry newsletter, "people won't need to be computer-literate. Computers will be people-literate, "40 The mania for compu ter IIteracy only serves to distract attention from the growing opportunity and urgent need to apply modern technology to enhancing the productivity of education. John Diebold. a leading authority 011 mforruatton technology industries. observes that educarton in ~eneral is a "major area that has been slow to adopt the computer. which is probably the most important thill~ to happen to that field since the prtnung press. "41 While there are only about a quarter of a million computers in Instructional usc ill elementary/secondary schools today. there are computers in more than 10 million homes. and the lat tel' number could double within the next year. Sales of desktop computers for both home and business are explodin~-lBM sold more Personal Computers (pes) in the first two months of 1984 than in the prevtou s two years. Infocorp .. a market research firm. estimates that a computer will be found in nearly one of three American households by the end of 1985. and in el~ht of ten by the end of the century!" Another leudtng market analyst. future Cornputtng Inc .. claims that over 70 percent of educational software will be sold to the home market by 1987. 4;~ A new generation of educational ~am(>s will rinp; up annual sales of 83 billion in five years. according to Electroruc Arts. a leading software publisher. 1,1 By t hr next decade. not only will most U.S. homes have computers of growin~ sophlsttcat ion. the majority also will have broadband communications access-via cable television a.id/or videotex (two-way. interactive video by telephone or cablcj-c-to a burgeontng array of Interactive information resources. Employees will find even more powerful tcvlmolouu-s=-for example. micro-mainframe computers ltnkcd in local networks. interactive video19




disks. and vtdeoconferenrtng=-avutlablc the job.

for learning


The Software Gap

The main technological barrier to vastly Increaslng the producttvtty and accesslhtlltv of learning Is 110 longer hardware but software. OTA's two-year-old report found ",~el1eral widespread agreement that. with few except ions, the quality of educational software-curriculum matertal designed for educattonal technology-vnow available was. in general. not wry good. ",I" But two or three years in todays explostve information industry Is practically a lifetime. In just three years. video games went from being a minor adjunct of the toy business to a 87-billion-a-~'ear entertainment industry, with sales greater than motion pictures or recorded music. (The shakeout came just as suddenly: revenues declined by more than 30 percent ill one year.) Hundreds of entrepreneurs. some barely teenagers, suddenly emerged to make quick fortunes by designing software for the gamt' market. In fact. the market for computer software of all kinds is booming. This year. 20,000 new software products wfll be marketed-s-cqual to nearly half the number of new books published (and computer-related books arc the hottest catl'gory of book sales). Recent 'id\'an(,t's in artificial intl'lIlgrnce research promise to advance the stall' of the art oflcarning technology rapidly DEBUGGY. developed at the Xerox Palo Alto Research Center (which spawned many of the advances in user- tru-ndly elt'sign incorporu t ed ill Apples new Mart ntnsh ltne l, is in t hv mamstreum of work on computeraided inst rurt ion. one of the most act ive subltelds of ArtifiCial Intdligt'IH'(' (AI) research, DEBUGGY is a "responsive tutor." a program which adapts itself to t he leurnma Ilt,t'ds of an individual student-a quantum advance over the "progranunco It'arnin~C of {hl' 1960s and tile ill-conceived "computer lin -rarv" efforts of rerent years.'!" As the market for Video gamcs has leveled olt, cornpurer entrepreneurs art' turning their at teuttou to rlu- instrucnonul murkr-t. A n-crnt issue of Electronic L(,(lrTIifl9 listed 200 educational soltwart- producers. and a 19HO in20


dust ry st udy iden t ifled some 304 edurut ronal software developers.:'? Future Computtnu, Inc, estimates that sales of vducat tonul software will exceed 81 billion a year by 1987. rouuhlv threr-qiuuters of wh Ich will be for software to usc in the horne rather than in schools.'!" William Norris. chau'man of the Control Data Corporation. and all early and perslsteut belu-ver ill the Importunce of the learning marker. asserts t l iat "Itftcen vears from now education is I-!oill~ to be the largt.'st source of(eonl rol Data's) revenues and profits, "I!I

The Rise of Thlematic Learning

The thrust of t hesr technoloatral trends is unmistakable. Tilt, traditional school-a ce n t rul izvd e d iftce . compartmenraltzed into a warren of classrooms. each stratified with rq~inll'nted rows of desks. and relying on Icctu re/rec ttut ion as the principal medium of instruction-will have almost as little place in the 21st century's learning ell terprise as t he blacksmith shop has in todays transportation industry, The vanguard of tOlllOITO\\'S learn inu industry can be seen in such 11('\\', network nrganizat ions as Tl'1rlearning Systems, 111('. and Nut innal Ecluca t iOI1 Cor porat ion's EDNET. These ('11 ierprtses an' a quant urn advance over traeli t tonal cor respoudcucc courses. They art' set lip to distribute instructional servtces dtrectlv to consumers virt nallv anvwlu-re tlu t i:l personal computer call be hooked to a u-h-phone lim', And. unlike courses by mall. they permit direct two-wav ('0 III I11UII teat ion ln-tween student and u-aclu-r or amom; st uden ts. The uutornaunn of learning will not replace tilt, daycan- tunct ton of l'it'IlIl'lItary/sl'('OIHiary sl'i 100 is , but it ran help reduce costs wlule vnablnu; students to learn mort'.

For adults. tvlvmat ic tel'illlologit's at tuck t he two most Irequeutlv ciu-d barrn-rs to part icipa: iOIl ill organized !camillg: ('ost and t inu-. 'It-lcnuu: leurnuu; will be cheaper bcruuse of lower overhead and ~rl'atl'r compct it ion, And it will not onlv save t lu: t ime lost ill t ravel and in the inrfftciellcil's of clasxroom Instruct ton but also will perm it learning to be sclu-dulcd at the convcntenre of tlu: consume .....

'lelemauc learnrng also will g;ive professional educators the opportunity to earn virtually unlimited income by selling the products of their instructional talents to audiences of hundreds or thousands or even millions. instead of to a classroom of only a few dozen students. Despite these dramatic implications. the telernattc revolution has yet to be accommodated by public education policy. Policy that remains locked In to the traditional form of education tncreastngly will obstruct the Junction of learning.

The Tratntng Policy Gap

In 1983. before the dlversiltcatlon of the Bell system. AT&T signed a milestone contract with its major employee unions that committed the corporation to a 836 million program of training and retraining. open to all employees with more than one year of seniority. What made this agreement a watershed was that the training/retraining to be provided is not geared to any specific job but is general in nature. Thus workers whose jobs are threatened by technological innovation have the opportunity under this program to be trained for new careers. by their current employer. Commenting on the significapce of the AT&T contract. Paul Strassman of Xerox noud that "the union is now seeing education as big an issue RS wages and benefits." And THW economist Pat Choate charactertzes the agreement as being "on the cutting edge of where the Whole country is going. "Go While prouresstve companies and labor organizattons such as AT&T and the Comrnuntcatron Workers of Arnertea are creating innovative arrangements for meeting the human capital needs of a new economy, public policy on training and retraining is hobbled by outworn assumptions and misguided efforts.

A Narrow FOcus
A basic flaw in governml'Ilt policy on training is the focus on a limited range of training needs and opportunities. Training is actually a large. sophisticated.


P< ll.l( 0'1'

growt hind US Iry. The t rai nln~ provided wit lun corporations I~ as large an ell terprtse as all of formal h iglH'r eduration. accounung for 8:30 billion to 850 billion In annual expenditures and employing abou t 700.000 full- and parttime tnst rucrors."! And the number of institutions providing vocational education ill the United States has growlI from only 600 in 1960 to over 8.000 today.!>2 The 000 is the largest single trainer in the United States (and probably the world). In fiscal year 1985. DOD will invest nearly S 18 billion and 260,000 person-years (full-lime equivalent) in formal (institutional) training and educauon. Since World War II. millions of veterans have received addtttonal educational benefits from military service through the famous "GI Blll" and special tuition-aid programs that succeeded It. The opportuntty for training and educat ion is critical to military recruitment. OOD surveys show that "training for a ctvtltan job" is given as the principal reason for enlisting by the largest number (28 percent l of new recruits. "Better myself In life," is given as the main reason by the next largest segment of enlistees (20 percent l. followed by "money for college education" (15 perrentj."' In a study for the Americau Sortety for Training and Developmcn t. An thoriy Carnevale and Harold Goldstein concluded that the amount of training demanded by the U.S. economy will increase faster than total employment during the 1~80s. The reason: not only will the fastest growth in t he labor force he in the 25- to 44-year-old age cohort-the very age group that ret-elves the most training-hut employment growth will be concentrated in just thoxe industries that require the most training.=>4 Yrt public policy addresses only a very narrow segment of the broad spcctrum of training activity. ignoring many of the important needs for economic development. Existing vocational education focuses heavily on entry level training. and negle('ts the needs for retraining as well as the needs of advanced-level. skilled workers.Y' "The public training programs that do exi.st serve less than H percent of the popular ion." says Pal Choate: and. "they for-us prtrnartly on t he ('('ollomi("ally and culturally disadvantaged and provide some entrv level training while


~ivin~ very limited attention to retraining employed worktheir skllls. ":,Ii Echotng this view, a report of the Busmess-Htgher Education Forum concludes that ". . , the scope of existing policies on education. training and retraining. which concentrate prunartly on youth and the disadvantaged. must be expanded to Include the entire work force, "!l7 Though publicly funded training programs concentrate heavily on t he younu, disadvantaged. and hard-core unemployed, the total universe of training and continuing education is slanted heavily in favor of those who are already most well-off. Uri tor-educated workers receive a disproportionately largl' share of all training, III 1981. workers with four or more years of ('ollege were IS percent of the labor force. but 35 percent of the trainees. Those with one to three years of colleue wen' also 18 percent of the labor force. but 27 percent of tilt' t ratnees. At the other extreme, workers with less than a Iull high school edurat ion wi-re 23 percent of the labor force but only 5 percent of the t rat nces. :,H SO. prtv.ue t rainuu; J'('SOllJ'('CS art.' skewed toward the top 01' thejob pyramid. wlule publirlv Iundedjob programs concentrate on the very bottom, lcavinu the mass of workers in thr middle-tht, ones whose _johs art' most threatvned h.\ !t'('hllological and ccononur changes-with the least support for t raining or retraining.
ers and upgrading

Large versus Small Employers

Allot her distortion in training policy n-sts on the dnIcn-nt roles ill eruploynu-nt of largt' versus small compani(s. In the past dt'('adt'. small husmesse provided the great majorrtv otcmplovnu-nt growth in tile U.S. t'c()nol1l~'; Fort 1I I It' :;00 corpnrut ions contrtbuted only a Iew thousand of tilt' rollghl~' 20 m lllion newjobs that were created. Small cumpa nu-s an' the nut lo ns major training .I.!;rolllld for new workers. inl'!ft('t suhsidizillg the training costs or big corporut inn as snialler hustru-ssr-s lost' t'XPt'rienrr-d workers to the hight'l" pay largt'r nrms can alford. Compunu-s with Iewr-r than 100 vmplovees accouut for 5~ PlTl't'lll of total emplovuunt , hut t lu-y hire 67 perrt-nt of Itrst-t tnu- workers. Yt'[ most k(lt-raJ uununu grants go to big, not small, ('OII1P<llIit's. !,!I


Skill Obsolescence
Many vocuttonal eduruuon and training prograrus=particularly those provided by t he public sector-give training in skills and vocations that are already out-ofdate. Such programs perststed in training welders and lathe operators 10n14 after robots and computers had made those Jobs obsolete. High-tech companies find that graduares of even top-grade engineering schools require substantial additional in-house training to catch up with the latest technology. "It's important to spot the obsolete occupations and get the training for those jobs out of our educational system." argues consultant Clyde Helms. "Teachers who are eduraung students who p;o out and stand In unemployment lines are just as obsolete as their graduates. "(;()But eliminating obsolete training will not. by itself. meet the need for durable, future-relevant training. The basic problem of sktll obsolescence results from the isolation of training from the rapidly rhan,e;ing real world of work. Several forces conspire to insulate current training from work: The major complaints of vocaucnal educanon institutions. community colleges. and even major universities are a lack of modern equipment and a shortage of upto-date faculty in key technical fields. The kind of high-tech equipment now used ill industry is not only very expensive. but the rate of obsolescence in such Ilelds as computers and semiconductors is so high that companies themselves are often hardpressed to keep up with the state of the art. Under r hvse condtt ious. ~l'ttin~ the latest cqutpnu .. into -ru schools is extremely difficult. Full-t ime engine('ring and technology faculty are virtually doomed to obsolescence. Not only does industry otter far more lucrative salarles than educational institutions for experts in ".~rowth" fields. but faculty simply cannot keep current with technology except by working at least part-t nne in private business. Even s('ll'nti!~!s interested ill basil' research. in such fields as g('lH't Irs, artificial intl'lltgt'nce. and some branches of mat hetnut ics. an' at trartcd to corporations rather than
untverslt u-s. 25
! i

Unions and professional societies often work against training and education programs that threaten their members with Increased competition. Training In obsolete skills often prollfcrates simply because it is unopposed. Employers and managers htstorlcally have been inadequately involved 111 the training process. Many external training and educatton programs proceed Without their participation. Even inside their own or~anizations. line managers arc often uninterested In (and unrewarded for) employee tratntng and development. Instead. they delegate that responsibility to personnel officers who often lack the intimate acquaintance with changing technologies and operations needed to antictpate future sklll requtrements. Teaching credentials of various kinds often prevent those who have up-to-date skills and knowledge. and who want to teach others. from doing so. Formal eduration Institutions commonly will not give faculty positions to individuals who lack the "right" academic degrees. Part-t nne teaching Is discouraged by Inferior pay and status. Accreditation and other regulations dtscrtrntuate against on-the-job and nontradtttonal alternatives to educat lonal tnstttuttons. The sktll-obsolescence gap between training and employment is generatt'd by turbulent technological and economic changes that will continue for decades to come. Bridging this gap will require .. a more Intimate mixing of learning and work. Continual lr-arn mg must become accepted as a necessary part of any job. And those who perform and manage produrt ive work must become more directly involved in training others for work.

The Job Training Partnership Act

The focal point of public peltry on training/retraining today is the Iederal Job "lhlining Part nershtp Art (JTPA), created last year to replace the III-fated CETA program. CETA's critics ('harged that the program dt'generatl'd Into an rncomc-muuueuancc program for the unemployed. provided "training" of !ittit' economic value. and got real jobs for only a few percent of its parttcipants.

~JTPA experts to produce HOO.OOOto l milllon trainees in ttscal venr 18H4 at a cost to the U.S. Tl'f'<lSUI'Y of l;3,5 billion, 'lo help insure that training is relevant to real employment opportunil Ies, t he program is p;uidl'ci by 59410<.'al private Indus: ry councils.
t.!l'llt on successtutly tratm-i-s into jobs.


Fur: hertuore. funding is conttni.\ minimum percent aue of

While it is too soon to measure the actual impact of JTPA, critics ('har~(:' that. by tying funding to successful job plm'PIlH'1I1 of traluees. the program is dl'siglled to enlist t he best prospects-i-thos most likr lv to be employed anyway-and leave the worst CHS{'S 011 the street."! But t hc basil' problem with JTPA and similar programs to train or ret ruln till' unemployed is that the most disadvantaged workers an' less in ner-d of joh-spectftc t rai ni ng t han of help wit h bask skills prcrequ islte to being trainable and employable. For inst ance, as Marc Bendick Jr. of the Urban Institute points out. onr-thtrd of dislorated workers lad, a l1igh school diploma. and another third have diplomas but are still functionally ilIitcmtl.'i;l Employers will (,(lI1tiI1l11' to provtcle the great majority or job-related tmining. Private industry expenditures on trauung.rctrauunu an' at least 10 times the amount of the total JTPA budget. Even uovernrnent spends more on training its own r-mployrvs than on such civilian training programs as JTPA The 1'1.'111 ag;on alone spends abou t five times t he JTI'A Imdp;t't O~l institutional tratntnu and education for military persoruu-l. What prtvan- employers resent is huvinu to spend a nn 11or a quarter of their 1 ratntnu dollars to teuch baste sl,ills that. munv rmplover fed. should have hl'l'1l con\'l'!'l'c1 bv puhll edurutton (for which. by the way, they alreadv haw paid oncr through taxes l. Tlu: glaring .~aps in public poluv h-It by JTPA and similar programs an' tilt' IH',gll'cl of: (lIt lu- ret ra innu; ner-ds of t he largl' nuddle t u-r of rmp loycd but ut-rtsk workers Itncludlm; honu-mukvrs l: and \2) the basil' skill needs of the 20 nullion or so Iuucuonally tlliu-rut worktorrv adults who will not hl' touched by reforms tn elenu-ntary/secoudarv cdurat ton. and who-a- learning handtrups preven t t hCIIl from IH'Ill'fi t iIIg from job-spec ilk t ra i11 ng. i

Paul Barton of the National Institute for Work and recommends that. "Rather than repeat past mistakes by creating large programs with preselected training 'slots' into which workers are fit. we should assess worker needs and aspirat ions on an individual basis and purchase appropriate training from the best possible facility for each particular skill. "fi:i


Individual1i'aining Accounts
One step in this direction. suggrsted by Pat Choate, would be a program of Individual Tranum; Accounts (ITA). Similar to lndividual Retirement Accounts (IRA), Though the specifics of an ITA program are still being debated. the gt'lleral concept is that employers and employees would make equal. tax-free contributions to the ITA. which then could be drawn from to pay for retratnmg when needed. The advantage of this approach is that it would direct rCSOliITt'S toward the retratmng needs of mainstream WOr1H'l'S now neulccred. 1\\'0 principal crtr lcIsms have been raised to the ITA proposal. One is that retraining Is irrelevant to the overall need for jobs, As Eli Gil1zhr.rg, professor cmerttus at Columbia Untversuv puts it. "If there aren't any jobs. you ran ret rat II people un tilt he cows come horne and it still won't do anv g:ood, "'i" The second key objcctton is that most workers luck cit her mottvauon or ability to dtrect their OWI1 trainil1g. Economists Robert Haveman and Curv Burtless note that unemployed workers giv(,11 t raining vouchers ill Denver and Se at t le chos cour ses that Iallcd to increase their l'arllings over i.I six-year period, And traintru; expert John Bishop ar,~Ut's that t he most significant barriers to part i('ipatton III "school-based t r.un lnj; programs" by the unemploved art' the "fear and dishl: .hat many adults have of schools" and the g('nl'J'<lI lad" of approprtau: programs.'!" Both ob.i('('tiolls S(,),Vt.' to underscore the importunce of tilt, learllillg cnu-rprtse to future econom tr development. 'l'ho first. that ntratnnu; will not tTl'at(' new [obs. is valid only wtt lnn the hnuud framework of tilt' passnu; industrial ('('1)1l01ll~', In tilt, ('Illt'r,gill,~ fourth s('('tor-th(' kuowlcdue



PUI.i( 'Y

secror=-conr inual adult learntnu is not only a prerequtstte of employment hut is actually a major form of work, The second complaint. that workers are not currently able t () make product tve use of the resou rces the ITA would provide. cmphastzes that more-of-t he-same t r ad it ional. Iustttut ton-based education and training will not serve the adult learllillg needs of the postindustrial economy Rather, we need a high-tech. telemat tc learntnu enterprise. and workers who an,' t rained to be effect tve consumers of the latest karning products and services. ITA is a "demand-stdc" policy initiative (hat would direct J'('SOUITt'S to the leurnrnu needs of the mainstream of wOI'I<ing-ugt' adults. But a complementary "supply-side" push is needed as well to cutt ivat the learntru; enterprise that call meet those ll'anJlllg demands.

The Economic Development Policy Gap

'Irad it tonally, evon 0 111 ie developmen t has been a policy rnatnlv of state and local governmenls in the United Stall'S, The fl'(kral roll' was relat ivcly sJllall until the New Deal. Even sinct' then, till' great majority of tederal devr-lopnu-nt proarums=-for example, ill highway c-nnst rue! ion. water rerlunuu ion. ('k('l r ic- power-have been regionally or lo('ally oru-ntcd. with dfl'ctivt' control vesu-d in stau- and local a,l.!(,IIl'il's, (The ftodl'ral roll' is most douununt in t hosv states where a largt' portion of Iill' territory is federally O\\'I1l'd,) MClII~'of t hr contltcrs aud parudoxes ill t'('ollOmic developuu-ut pClli('~' (It'ri\'(' from, on o Ill' hand. t he fact of st au- donuuunre ill suth policy and. Oil t lu- other, tlulunits 011 stall' s()\'l'n'igllty cstuhltslu-d by till' U,S, Const ltut inn. Bl'('clllSl' st a tl'S c.umot cnn I rot I lu: III igrat ion of cupuul and pvopl across t hvt r hor clr rx. uuu-h of t hvtr ('OIllIH't it ion for l,(,OIICllllit'dr-velopnu-n t bl'('()Jlll'~ irrelevant or couuterprodurt ivv.

High-Tech Mania
Coulustou O\'lT tilt' n-lauouslup ln-twi-rn "jobs" (that is, "[ol," as a pnht irul issw' its opposed to ,johs as actual cmplovuu-ut oppun uuit n-sj dlUI l'('ollOillir <il'Vl'IOPIIH'1l1in




the unrest rictcd common market that is the United States often traps states and localities in a negative-sum. competitive ,game colloquially labelled smokestack chasing, One of tbe worst examples is the current mania in development policy for anythtng high-tech. making smokestack chastng Into chip chasmu. The meaning of "high-tech" Is universally vague, but it usually includes computers, robotics, and btoenatneering, "High-tech employment generally refers to jobs directly involved in the development and production of such new, advanced technologies, The reality Is that If "lugh-tech" has any useful meaning for economtc development, it is not to define an eltte group of sunrise industries but to represent a technological renaissance crossing all economic sectors, 'Iodays automobile, steel, chemical. and machine tool Industries are as high-tech as any at her III terms of sophistication and pare of tnnovauon. It could be argued that agriculture is the most terhnology-tntcnstve business in todays economy. Whatever the economic benetlts of high-tech industry may be, employment is among the least Carnevale and Goldstein observe. "The not ion that most Americans will be worknu; ill high tt't'ill1olog_v occupattons and Industry In the near Iut ure is 1I0t supported by the available evtdence. At best. high tt'chnology product ion will employ 10 pert-ern of the American work force ill the foreseeable

tu t u re.


Iligh-tt'l'h industry in total will provide fewer than a nulliou new lobs over tlu u-xt decade, less than a tent h of what will Iw' nrvded to avoid inrreased unemployment.':" For exumple. whtle compuu-r ocrupuuon-. will increase by ilion' than 4f> percent OWl' the decade of the WHOso this I't'PI't'Sl'lIts all ilHTt'LlSt' of only (jOO.OOO.iobs-1.5 million to 2.1 rutlliou ill ImJO. still OIlly 1.5 percent of the 19HO labor lorn'. hH Hiuh-teth sunply will not have a major Impact Oil total emplovment. Nor will higIHt'('h otter " PLlIlt.l(t'" to thl' highly paid, skilled workers. ill such heavy mdustrtes as automobiles and slt't'l. dlspl.u-ed by IIH' cornlnu.uron or foreign compet it iotl and tt'dlllological n-nov.u ion. Then: will not be t'llough high-tech jdhs to go around. The c1isplan'd work-


ers will need to he thoroughly retrained to have any chance to ~et such jobs. and many of thcm. though skillful in their traditional work. lack the basil' lcarrnng skills to be easily retrainable. And. most of those who do make a successful nugranon Irom their htuh-wag industrial jobs to high-tech companies will be forced to accept lower wages. simply because no other industry pays as much as such basil' industries as cars and steel. In 1982. the average wage in the steel industry was 8530 a week: the figure for (he elect neal and clcctrontcs tndust rIes was 8370 a week. close to the average for all manufacturers, But ,e;ruwing productivity and automation In all manufacturing mean that many displaced industrial workers will have to take jobs in service companies. where the average weekly wage was 8242. (;!J Most of the jobs available during the 1980s. both new jobs and existing jobs. are not going to be l1ightech jobs. Ac.cordtru; to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) forecast. the following will he the fastest growing occupations in the U.S. economy during this decade?":
Nurses Aide Guard 94 thousand/year

Pracural Nurse
Machtne Repair

70 60

Computer Operator
Bank Clerk Dining Room At tcudam/Dt-dtwasher Hornemuker/I lome i h-alth Aidl'

46 45

Bank Otftrvr
Teacher's Ai<1('


Only om: of t hr-se jobs, computer operator, could be co nstdered luuh-u-ch, and Dilly one other. bank officer. would be judged a nuddle-class job. However, if we look not at growth but the total number of job openings annually for each occuputton. the latter drop down the list and we gt! the tollowiuu pic! ure of what t he majority of employment opportumt n-s ill t he WHOs wlll ln?":




Secretary/ Stenographer Retail Sales Worker Janitor Cashier Bookkeeper Nurse's Aide. Orderly Cook K-GTeacher Regtstered Nurse Assembler

305 thousand
226 180 119 " " "

94 86 86 85



Forecaster Marvin Cetron has argued that such official BLS projections understate future high-tech employment because they fail to account for jobs in all-new categories created by technological innovation. Cetron foresees substantial employment opportunities in such Hovel occupations as industrial laser process technician. industrial robot production technician. auromouve fuel cell technician. nuclear medtcme technologist. computerassisted design (CAD) technician. and computer-assisted manufacturing (CAM) specialist. 72 Official job forecasts almost certainly do not take adequate account of technological trends. But Cctron also may be underesttmattng the potential of emerging technologies to displace labor. For example. writer 130bKuttner notes that. as man L,racturinA becomes ever more computer integrated. "The job of CAD/CAM technician. which is regarded as a hot new opportunity. will diminish. because the engmeer himself will sit at the computer terminal and transform his specifications directly into a product. "7:\ Cctron anticipates 800.000 jobs in the next decade for robot production technicians. But in Japan. the leader in the production and application of robotics. most of the work done in robot-producing factories is performed by ... robots. What is clear is that the major impact of so-called hi~h technology on employment will not be in the production of the technology Itself. but rather in the application of new technologies in many occupations across a Wide range of tndustrtcs=-manufar-t uring. agrtculture. transportation. health carl'. financial services. arts and cntertatnment. ami govcnunent.
32 ,",


"The debate should not center 011 whether 11Igh-tl'ch Is the solut Ion or till' problem," says Lawrence Welser of the Un tverstty of Wisconsin. "The focus should be on how tu provide job opport un i ties for all those who wall t to work and Income maintenance I'dr those who cannot find employment. "'/4

Development and People

The recen t man ia OWl' "high-tech" is symptornat Ic of a Iundamen tal problem in developmen t po)j('y-- the dtsconttuulty between the indtvlduul person and the collective community. The relationship between the development of individual human capital and the development of the communal economy Is 110t as simple as Is often claimed. Confusion about the relat ionshtp can be an obstacle to development of both kinds. Since the economic disaster of the Great Depresston, "jobs" have been a central obsession of political rhetoric. Vtrt ually every proposal in economic policy is justified in terms 01' its promise of "jobs ... And, in political debate, that promise of collert i\'t "jobs" is prescn ted as a symbol of the tndivtduul s hopes for econonuc securlty, independence, and advanrernen t. 'l'he reality is that mac-rort-nnornir development of a conununttv twhet her town. slate, or nation) may be irrclevan t t () I he t'C0l101ll j(' prospect sol' S0I111' or even most of the members of that cornmunuy Such gross nuu-roeconorntr statistics as Income. vmploymcnt. and growth rat-s just do not say I1HIl'h about how any part lculur person is doing. On the other hand. the investments made in indlvldual ernnnmu- dr-vclopnu-nt-i-pnrttcularlv ill edurat ion and trutntnu but even in houxuu; or tnsuruncc=-ure frequently out of rune with till' broad trends lcaduu; toward a post indus trial socit'ty. Convent tonal political wisdom implies that developnu-nt is a oue-dinu-nstonal process, with proun-ss for all nu-asurr-d along a singlt, lim' of growth. lnstrud. we need a two-dtuu-nsionul Iramework for devrlopnunt policy Ihat addresses the erunumh- developnunt of the vunuuuntty and the l'('0I10I11i(' developuu-nt of the Indtvidual as separate bu t in terdrpenden t goals.

Only in this more dtscrtmtnattnu policy framework \\T be able to apprectate the learning enterprise as both the essential inst rurncnt of Individual advancement and t he critical capital-forming industry of the postindustrial ero 110 Illy, The one-d inu-ns tonal rhe torte of pol itical campaigns often .seems to sw~p:t.~st t hat economic development is Intended mainly to bcneftt work iuu people. that those who pay thr costs of development will receive the benefits. and that creat lnu jobs is the same thing as (Tt'atlng work, 'l'hese slmplist Ie assumptions 11m)' be emotionally appealIng. but they actually obstruct practical progress, A mort.' realistic. two-dimensional view of the developnu-nt process compels us to grapple with the followtng compltcat Ions: The ccononuc devr-lopmcnt efforts of state and local gO\'lTn!lH'nts art' focused more on property than on people. Till' rousutuuonal guarantt'(' of frce track and. mtgrat:OI1 within till' United Stall'S and the high mobility' of tilt' American populauon mean t hat t hr impacts of 10rul development can be ncuher confined 1101' accounted lor locallv There is a suhstnn ttal ditferenrr between creunnu jobs and lTt'atill~ work , comparable to till' ditlervnce betwi-en distrtbut illg ilH'OIlH' and expandillg iIH'OIl1C; furt hr rmorc . policies 111<11 cout rtbu t to o n e mav be trrelcvunt and vvcn cont rnrv to till' other.


Property and People

The t r.idtt iouu! focus of t'('OllOll1i(' dcvvlupnu-nt at the suur and local Jto\'l'ls is to uun-us t lu- valur or property lovan-d wu hiu thrjurtsdirt tou. part trularlv property t hat is illllllOl>ik--Ialld, nat ural J'f'SOUI,(,('S, 1>11ild i nus. lur torit's, a nd t ru nxpurt a t Ion Iaci l i t h-s . 1'01' vxnmplc. 'lhr O\\'IHTS of such assels are t hr matn ,){'llt'I'iciarit'S-Cllld thcrrfore an' usunllv t lu most carru-st ad\'ol'iI(('S-o!' lTOnonuc dr-velopuu-nt , Slich propertv owmrs arc illlt'J't'slt'd ill jobs olily as olle of st'\'('I'al l'()IlIIH'liIH,~ tacll,r ... illllllt'lIdll.~ till' value of tlu-tr propt'rt~', Also, what is betH'tidal to III\' value of one

ptece of local property

often is detrtmerual

to another,


even when


property owner may benettt

from more jobs

allot her will not. This observat ton is not meant to suggt'st that there is an absolute conflict between "jobs" and economtc developnu-nt , Many working people an' also property ownerscommonly. of homes, And increased employruent often may be necessary to devclopnu; lill' econonuc value of property But thc rorrcspundenrc. at tilt' Slate und local levels. Is not vxactlv OIl('tO-OIlC. and mtsundcrstaudtng the reluuonsh ip can lead to dtsappoint ment and Irustratton. For example. g{'ntrilkatioll may trn-rruse t he averauc standard of living in a giv{>n urban area. But it commonly does so by replacing the resident poor with an immigrant middk class. not by raising till' origill:ll inhabitants to a hight'r level. A CflSt' ill poiut is Atlantic City, New Jersey, Though till' legalization of castno gambling has contrtbuted substunt ially to local {'('onullli(' development and to the state treasury', few hvnef'us have acrrtu-d to origillal n-stdent s. Jobs have gOIlt' nuunly to imnuurunt s and t here has been lit til' mult iplu-r effl'et Oil non-castno bllSilH'SS('S, Most of tile poor n-mam as thev were or have ber-n Iorrcd to leave.

Mobility and Locality

TIll' SCl'OIICI Import ant complic.u ion w must coun-nd with ill devvlopuu-nt polil'~' is tilt' n-markable molnlttv of pcopil' ill Auu-run. 111 il nut lou t h.u cousututtnnallv prohibits harr ivrs to llli,~rilti()Jl or romnu-rr- .unoru; tilt, statt's. pl'Opit' ;11,(,I'I'(,t' to "vr.tt: wl t II t hrir Irvt " and 1ll00'l' to wln-n-ver tlu-v ran ~t't t hc br-s: reward for tlu-tr labor, This Irvcdom otnuur.u iOIl--t'SSt'llt ial to mak nu; t lit, United Statl's the most prosperous conuuou market ill lIistor~'rumplnutcs tilt' n-l.urouslup of emplovnu-nt and luunun capital to t'COllOlllil' dr-vvlopnu-nt at tilt' statt' and local levels. BCl"IlISt' pvopk- art' fret' to 1110\'(' around. t lu-re is no \\,~I~' to ('J'l'att' jobs I()('all~' jus: lor til(' local n-sidvnt s who nrvd them. TIWUL!,h it is ronuuunplactlor poliurtans to (>1'01 111St' "jobs" <IS (I hvnvltr oj their pulu-u-s. tilt' rvalnv is t h.u s(atl' :IIHII()('al L!,()\'('nlllit'llts--Ilil\'illg 110 ruut rol over

{ I I,




currency, migration, or trade-are extremely limited in what they can do to affect the employment of their constituents. Attracting or cultivating industry in the name of "jobs" will not necessarily benefit current. unemployed residents who may not have the skills to get the jobs that will he created-some or all of which may actually be taken by immigrants from somewhere else. A particular state or local governments investment III training and education may enable local residents to compete more effectively for new jobs. Bu t that Investmen t in human capital development also will enable those residents to compete for Jobs located in another city or state. The only local beneft t may be the reduct ion in unemployment insurance or welfare costs. Bu t then, the very success of a local program that helped disadvantaged people to move up and out would be a magnet for disadvantaged immigrants from elsewhere. By statistical measures, communities such as Boulder, Colorado or Aust In. Texas that have employed growth controls to limit migration seem to have enjoyed considerable success in securtru; the benefits of economic development for their original residents. Omitted from the accounting. though. arc the opportunity costs Imposed on those who were prevented from immigrating or were forced to emigrate. If people did not 1110V(' around much. these paradoxes in local and stute development policy caused by the freedom of migration mighl be dismissed as mere equtvocattou. But Arnertcans .utuallv are extraordinarily mobile, The 1BHO (,t'nSlIs shows t hat. in most COUlltit's In t he United States. roughly a sixth Ifrostbelt I to a third (sunbelt) of the local rcstdents had moved from another part of the sanu: state OJ' from another state altogt'tht'r within the previous fivl' years. With such a substantial proportion of"rcsidt'nts" ('011t inuully ('Olllillg and goillg. it bt'('olllt'S extrernely difficult to trace who actually lwnt'lits and who <I('tllally pays when state and local gO\'t'rlllllt'llts at u-mpt to (Teate "jobs." whet her dtn-ctlv or t h rnuuh traditional property-focused projects. AmI this ointts Iht' lubyrun htne complnattons of t lu federal gownlllH'llt's t ransler-, of i1H'011lt'from place to place and person to person.

, .......


Wh tle econom ic development of property is ma inly a state and local interest. economic development of jobs-in terms of productive workers and opportunities for meaningful employment-c-Is a natior.al problem. This is not to say that employment is mainly a federal government concern. or even a ~overmnent concern at all. Rather. it is simply to recognize that. within the United States. all cittzens are free to compete in a ~;il1Ale.national job market.

Jobs and Work

The third complication in thinkin~ about development is that "jobs" and work arc not the same thing. Work is what actually creates economic product. Jobs-that is. employment-is one of several mechanisms for distributing shares in the produc.ton process. Investment. debt. and taxation are other mechanisms for dividing up the stakes in production. If the total amount of work in the economy were constant. the only way to expand employment would be through redistribution-dividing the economic pie into more slices. Government has a number of effective devices for doing this-from rcrtuctnj; the length of the workweek to taxing more private mcome in order to put more people 011 the public payroll. There is a lot ',0 be said for redistribution. but a baste problem with this option is that. at some point. it dilutes the incentives Ior work, Investment. and overall economic growth. If the rrernand for employment Is grO\ving. simply slicing the e'.'onomic pie into more pieces necessarily means taking income from some people to give it to others. The P' ocess tends to make the losers mad and to make the :~aiI1t'rs complacent. Incnastng the total amount of work-expanding the (TOnon'.!c pte-e-seems to be a more attractive way to increase employment without rn:'atlng any absolute losers. If dl-.trtbutton is left constant. more work should mean 1110:'C jobs. should it not? Maybe. The problem is complicated by two thrngs: ~~'c11110Io,lzyand product tvlty Work gets done by a combination of people and tl'chnology. Productivity is a measure

r . ')


of how much work people get done- how much they producc=-In a given period of tune on till' job. As new tcchnol()~\' increases product ivit~'. more work can get done wit hour requiring more people. and perhaps even requiring fewer people. to do It. So getting more work done-e-more economic product and a bigger pie-may not directly increase employmen t or fulfill the political promise of "jobs." In fact. productivity growth In specttic industries may even lead to reduced employmen t. as we have seen in automobiles. metals. and other manufacturing industries, The hope Is that the greatcr income gcncrated by increased producnvny will be respent. creating demand for IWW products and services ill other industries. and thus lead indirectly to more employment. But when tcchnolouical Innovat ion and product tvlty Increases arc occurring simultuncously t hrouuhout all sectors of the economy, expanding total production may take place with little increase or even wit h a loss of jobs. It was fashionable for poll t Iclans to agonize about Amertru s nagging productivity during the past decade. But by ktting its producttvtty slip, the U.S, economy was able to (,IT.1I(' employmen t for abou t HO Pt'I'Ct'1lt of till' tidal wave of new entrants to its work t'ol'l'l'--haby-boomers, women. and mtnortttes-c-ru tile 1870s, During the same period. Western Europe Oll tst ripped tile United Stutes in producuvuv growtl1, but wound up with a net loss of 3 millton jobs, The ~mwth of thr: fourth scctor-i--thc know1l'dgl' Sl'Ctor of the evonomv-c-otfers a t leas t part tal dehverance from this q UC!IH.l;.1l~' of pos t indus trial tt'd IIloiog_v a nd employmont. lkc<lusl' tn lormat tun is a virtually unlimited rcSOlUTt', t he tl('t'eit'rating automation informutton processing dot's not n-durv tilt' amount of 11l1l11~JIl "k nowlcdue work" to be done. but simply makes it more interesting, It would t akr: 5 t rtllion to 10 t rllllou human hl'ingsmort' than a t housu nd t inu-s the earth's total human populauon-i-to do tile work done hv t he wor lds current populat ron of compu u-rs. Compuu-rs did n ot eliminate 5 trillion "jobs." Most of (he \\'01'1, compuu-rs do sililply would not be .u mpu-d if tile l'OlI1PUttT did not ('xis!.


' . .J

Computers are t'iilllillatillg some kinds of knowledge worl<.-sudl as drafting. uu-dnal diagnosis, Ilavigat ion. and bookkeeptnu. But till' net effect is only to change the qual tty of knowledue work (usually for t 11(' better I, not to reduce t 11('quan t it~'of vmplovnu-n t opport unit Ies, The advauve of art ilki,ll intelligcll(.'(' will nnlv tncreuse t he needs and opport untt ies for work that depends on uniquely humau rreat Ivttv and inteliiuence. Although gm'eJ'llllH'llts can alfl'et tilt' dtstrtbution of eruplovnu-nt and inc-orne. there is much less that govcrnmerits can do. ill the short run at least to creuu- work. Work is most ly created by private In tt iat ive and ellt repn-ueurshtp, Nearly all of the 20 million tH'W jobs added to tilt' U.S. ('('onomy durtng the IH70s were created in small- to m td-sized compuntes. Broad areas of go\'{'rnn1t'llt policy can, of course, k('l the general condition of t hr l'l'onolllY, along with the prospects for work and cmplovnu-nt . At the federal level. an uubulu nccd 1ll0011't;.Ir~' policy can dumauc trade or plunue thr ('('onoI1lY into rerr-sston. rcducuu; employment en masse, Lax tmuuuruuon poltcics peruuillegal Inuuigmllts to t akr jobs ih.u. at least in prtncIple. could be avatlahhto Anu-ncun clt izr ns. Prou-cttomst trade nu-asun-s, most t'('olloIllists agree, wind lip costing more in cmplovnu-nt than they san'. B~' uvordnu; or undotnu suc-h rounu-rprndurt ive polil'i('s. gO\'l'J'Illlll'nts mav provide a mort' l'oIlgt'lliall'll\'ironment for ('l'OIlOllli(' growth. till' crvat iou of new work, and the possible expansion of mplovmout . But n-movuu; barru-rs to cuterprtse-c-t hough cnuncutlv dr sf rublc-c-will not. bv i1~l'lL di-ltvr-r "jobs" any IIlOIT than building a dam will IHT('ssaril~' bruu; rain. There art' SOIll(' pO!;i t i\'e t lunus gO\,(Tnl111'nts van do to hel p crca t l' 71('((' work. TIll'~' an' gl'llt'ra1!y in tilt' na t U re of lonu-u-rm Invvst nu-nt s. Support Ior bastr: research and devclopnu-nt (H&D) is one. 1311ildill.~ and maintaining the !,uulit' rupitul tnfrast ruct urr is another, A third is to st nnur lu-n t lu: lilll\agt' hetwrvn indtvtdual human capital ch-velopnu-nt ami t lu: drvr-loprm-ut of till' mucrtu-conomv, TIll' nl't'd is not oulv for till' ri.l~ht kinds of human capital to do t lu- work that is wanted.


.. ....
. !


Work is created by the imagination and initiative of individual people. People with the right kinds of human capital will create work and jobs for themselves and for others. The need here is not for massive new entitlement programs or heroic industrial policies. The learning enterprise is the linchpin between individual development and macroeconomic development. Government can help cultivate the learning enterprise by: removing the barriers presented by extsttng training. educat ion. and other policies: supporting basic research in cognitive science: encouraging the development and transfer of learning technology: developing and disseminating statistical information about the adult learning system: and facilitating communication between consumers and suppliers of learning products and services.

Neither high-tech nor economic development in general can solve the policy problem of jobs. The employment opportunities American workers desire do not flow directly or uniformly from all kinds of economic investment. As the baby-boom ~eneratlon ages and the numbers of young people entering the work force decline. there may even be n numerical surplus of several million jobs in the next few years. But many of the available jobs will be unattainable for adults who lack the right skills and knowledge. The low quality and poor prospects for advancement of many other jobs will make them unacceptable to many of the adults who want to work. Nett her t he amount of available workers nor the amount of educatton or experience they possess offers assurance of meeting the human capltal requirements of econornlc development In an ag<' of structural transition. 1'11(' quality of the worker-in terms of function. fit. and Ilexibtltty-c-Is becomtng most employers' major concern. On the other hand. the overall quality of the work and the working environment will be the key determinant of worker frustration. To workers of the baby-boom generation. the "jobs" issue is 110tmerely a matter of the number of openings. but is i:l coustellatton of uceds=-chullcuge.


independence. pay. location. mobility. status. and opportunity for growth. In the absence of a productive learning enterprise. human capital tnadequactes=-thc four Fs=-wtll be a brake on all forms of economic development in the emerging knowledge economy.

Gaps in Employer Policies

The policies that have the most Jmmedtatc Impact on human capital are not those promulgated through government statutes and regulations. but art' the policies employers establish to manage their organizations. In relation to our national human capital crisis. many employer policies arc as deltctent as government policies.

The Passing of Taylorism

The outworn philosophy of "scientific management" developed in the late 19th century by Frederick Winslow Taylor continues to dominate the management polictes of American employers. Taylortsrn established a strict dlvlston between management and labor and reduced human capital to a fungible factor of production. Workers became the scientifically manipulated pawns In the Industrial chess game played by management. In the Taylor scheme. the cardinal virtue of the worker was obedience. Induced by the promise of growing wages and disciplined by the threat of unemploymen t. The Taylor paradigm was well-Intentioned and generally productive in an industrial <lgc of mass production and standardization. But Taylortsm has become obsolete in the postindustrial era. for several reasons. First. the boundaries between worker. manager, and owner an' increasingly blurred. Workers are becoming major owners of American business. either Indirectly through what Peter Drucker has dubbed "penston-Iund SOCialism" or directly throuah employee stock ownership olans (ESOPsl. And foreign competition has Induced a growing number of firms to embrace the principle of parttctpatory rnanauemen




Second. the massive entry of women into the work force is transforming the nature of workers and work. anc of managers and niauagcmcnt. The traditional model of the husband as the sole breadwinner now applies tu only about a quarter of American famtlies. Not only are 53 percent of all women in the labor force. but the majority of married women are now ill the labor furce. "Women-owned bustnesses an' the Iastest-urowtng segment of small business." says .Juanita Weaver of the Small Bustness Administration. From 1972 to 1982. the number of self-employed women increased 69 percent. compared tu la percent fur men. By 1980. the 2.8 million women-owned sole proprietorships were over a fifth of such businesses. were itH'rf'HSiI1A their number hy 7 percent a year. and had annual sales of over 840 billion, 7:' The identity. needs. demands. and expectauons of workers and managers are being radically chanued by the growing impact of workmg women. Single or two-Income parents need day-care for therr children. The member of a two-Income household is less threatened by unernployment and less willing to transfer. but wants "flextime" and "cafeteria" benettts. Women owners and managers chalI('n~(' tilt' role models or both female and male employees, Recr-n t ('OUI'I dertstons concerrnng t he "comparable worth" of fernale-dornlnatcd occupations threaten an upheaval in cornpcnsanon poltr it's , And so 011. Third. a SI udy by Daniel Yankelovtch and John Irnrnerwahr cont-Iudes that the groWl h of dtscret tonary effort in the American workplace is a major cause of torpid produrt tvitv and requ ires a Iundame nt al shift In managernent ph ilosophy. Tlu-re is a gl'OWill,L!; gap between I he high level of inu-usnv and quahtv of work n-quired 10 achteve "excellence." and the nununum level that suffices for the Indlviduul 10 avoid bl'ill,L!; fired or penalized. Probing lor lire SIlIIITl' of t h is "vouunl ttneru ,L!;ap." Yaukr-lovnh and Inunerwahr found Illat three-quarters of AIlHTi(,C11l workers sa~' t hat thvv could Ill' si~nilkalllly more t'fltTI i\'(' Oil theIr johs than IIJ('_van.' 110\\'. The reason they an' 1101 1II0rt' <'ITt'('liv(' is t hat only 1:3 percent of the work torcr bdit'Vt's t hat work nu; harder or bCII('f v.. ollid IWllen I Ihe 111 pr-rsonallv Threv-tuurt lis of all workers agree

r : ,. ..


that management docs not know how to motivate workers today. 70 And fourth. rapid technological change demands a work force that is tlextble, innovative. and entrepreneurial. In many bustuesses. product life cycles that once wert' measured ill years or even decades have shrunk to months or even weeks. Rapidly changiug products and services require employces-i-both workers and managers-who can exercise discretion and creativity. and quickly adapt their knowledge and skill. As more workers rely on computers and other advanced t('rhnology In pertormtng their work. the whole ethos of work and management will be forced to change. A study at Columbia University shows that "computer people" have needs and mottvatlons quite different from those of workers In tradtttonaljobs: They are informal in dress. indifferent to "perks" and promotions. and comparatively unconcerned about money. but are motivated by the quality of the work itself and are insistent on the opportunity to continue to develop their technical expertise. For these people. work and learning are inseparable.

Learning for a New Paradigm

The rise of the learning en terprtse is part of this broad paradigm shift in the management of American organizations, In the age of Taylorlsm. t!" .lIning was mostly equivalent to programming the human worker for the robotllkc performanc-e of simplistic and repetitive tasks, In the course of the industrial a~{'. schools Increasingly took on tilt' eharar-n-rtsttcs of the factory. stressing specialization, analysis. measurement. and regimentation. Now. in the post industrial era. robots do robotic work. They can be t ratned and re tramed at the push of a button to perform those routine tasks that requtre no discretion. no judgment. no creat tvny We no longer need education and training institutions to "produce" standardized. reltable, predictubhIT! Search


success of Peters and Waterman's (Harper and How. 19H2) demonstrates the force of tlu- Winds of change blowing through
q{ Exceilcnc:

The cxuaordtnary


American management. The best organizations in our economy do not treat their employees as tools of production but as partners in a shared venture in which the complete development of the person is recognized as a key factor of success. Revising corporate cultures-whether In business. ~ovcrnment. or nonprofit organizations-requires extensive new learning by managers and workers at all levels. TIw culture of collaboration. creativity. and tndtvldual tntttattve that many organizations are now pursuing In search of excellence can only be attained through a learning enierprtse built on those same values.

The Confused Social Con tract

Underlytru; the array of policy ~aps described above Is a fundamental confusion about the appropriate distrtuut ton of costs. benefits. and responsibilities for adult learning. Our social commttment to the education of children Is almost universally accepted. and. despl te occasional arguments about the aoequacy of our efforts. the responsibilities of parents. teachers. taxpayers, and churches to support childhood learning are broadly recognized. But we lack a comparable social contract to meet the learning needs of adul ts. Employers Invest t('I1Sof billions of dollars in training employees. But a quarter or more of this expenditure is estimated to go mainly to remedy the dettctenctes In workers' baste skills that employers often feel are the responsibility of public education. Employers also arc often irked to see a worker they have invested in training Own leave to work for someone else. For example. the S:lO.OOO-a-year cost of the Wharton Execut ive MBA prourarn is paid In most cases by the students employer: yet over 40 percent of the graduates take a job with another employer within two years of graduating. 77 American workers Invest billions of dollars worth of their own money and time In postsecondarv cducat ion and training of various krnds. But if the expected eranomic benefits fail to matertaltzc. workers often blame



governlllent and/or industry for not providing accurate career guidance 01' adequate financial aid and Job-placement assistance. Sayin~ that 1J:0vernment has some responsibility ill this area leaves unresolved the key quest Ions of what spedne services government is supposed to perform. for whom. and who is supposed to pay the co. . The protectionist character of most of our public and private policies concerntru; human capital may reflect our essential ambivalence about the ownership of human capital. Uncertain of our ability to control and profit from the mtrtnstr knowledge. skill. and experience that constitute each individuals human capital. we seek the Illusory security of tenure III an extrinsic "job." We mortgage our selves to our titles. Slavery. indentured servitude. and some traditional laws that treated women as virtual chattels settled many questions of human capital ownership with brutal clarity. The liberal laws that succeeded these unjust institutions an' more humane. but nevertheless are complex and vague in their treatment of human capital ownership: for example: In the divorce ease of Sullivan VS. SHllivan In the state of California. a woman who had supported her exhusband through medical school demanded a share of all the expected income he would earn as a doctorthus claiming that his medical degree was part of (;0111munity property Some govcrnnlt'nt financial aid programs for medical and dental students require several years of postgraduate service as retmbursement: such a lien on human capital is difficult to collect. For example. the National Health Service Corps provides scholarships to educate health professionals in ret urn for an obligation to serve at least two years in areas (usually rural) lacking primary medical services. But over half of the scholarship recipients never fufill the service obligation-~30 percent pay the government back for their tranung while another 23 percent simply default. returnlnu neither money nor servtce for their free educat ion. II-! In the knowledge sector of the economy the boundary between human capital and intellectual property is a



twilight zone that is Increasingly a combat zone. A prominent physicist at the California Institute of' Technology [Caltech l resigned when the Institute claimed ownership of a valuable computer program he had developed on his OW11 time. When three 113Mengincers who had helped develop the PC left the company to produce competmg products they were charged with stealtua trade secrets, that is, the proprietary lUlOWIedge they had gained in the course of their work. Human capital starts with a baste genetic endowment and is then increased by the product of knowledge, skills, and experiences. But who owns it? More particularly. what equity interest is conferred by the investment ill human capital? What are the proper measures of the return on that tnvestment ? What is the appropriate distribution of the profit or loss from human capital Investments? The growth of the learning en terprtse and its value to the economy will be hampered until we have better and more universally acknowledged answers to such questions .

.. i H



Stereotypes and Misconceptions

BEYOND THE AHHAY OF DEFICIENCIES in public and private policies bearing on human capital development, the learntuu enterprise is handicapped by obsolete beliefs and attitudes about adult learning. Many leaders in government and industry, as well as the American public as a whole, harbor imag('s of "adult education" that bear little resemblance to the needs and opport unit res for adult learning ill till' ('Ilwrgillg knowledge economy. First. our convent ronal concepts of .fil1lcliorwl liter(lCY and bast: skills are based on judgments about t he skills an individual needs to tuner ion effect ively-as a \\'OI'I\('r. COllSUIlHT, and cili;l.('I1-in a society of the past, Some of thes sl\1115may be obsolete, while others needed in the economy of t he future are not y(,t bt'ing tested, For example, as videotex becomes the major medium of financtal transart ions, balancing a checkbook may he a less important sk il] t hall kuowtru; how to in teract wit h a televised display-"Pa<:-Mall" may be mort' relevant to tomorrows tuuct ional lru-rurv (hall some high school math ('OUrSl'S, Emr!! l('vel mav no longer be a useful concept in des<TihiIlg workers or jobs, The agiIl.~ of the baby-boom gellcrauon and tilt' su-adtlv .~ro\Villg roil' 01'\\'0111('11 ill the work force IIH'i.l1l t hat many people l'lIterill,~ a particular lint' of work will be mature adults wt t h c-onstderublc skill and explTil'II('t'-IlH'!1 and women shifting ('artTI'1-; or reentering the labor market after tak iru; tune out for child rearing or eduvat iOIl-ratlll'r than ({'l'!Iagl'rs look tnj; for their first real job. In mnnv pl'ople's minds. tlu- {('l'Il1S adult edu('atioll, l'Oc(ltjollai edllC(ltioTl, and trui nitu; or retmilliTlgeVoi{(' all image of sonu-t hi IIg ei t her n-cn-a t iorial or ITIII l'd lal, t'i t her t'('onolllil'all~' irrdl'\'ant or Cllll'('tillg olll~' t lu- puorest and most disadvantal!,('d IIH'lIIi>ns of t hr work forc('.


Actually. between 40 percent and 80 percent of the adult population is estimated to be actively parttrtpattng in organized learning at any ~iven ttme.?" (The wide range of the estimates is symptomatic of the poor data available about adult learntng.) And the most common single reason adults give for participating in education and training is to advance in the work world. HO

The Institutional Bias

Stili another obstructive bias Is the widespread tendency to identify education and tratntna with formal institutions. Actually. the American Society for Tramtng and Development estimates that U.S. corporations spend about as much on employee tratntng each year as the total amount of tuition and fees paid to all of Americas colleges and untverstttes."! This estimate does not account for the informal but critical on-the-job training whose dollar value may be two to five times greater than that of the formal training companies provide. Altogether. It is evident that postsecondary educattonal institutions account for only a minor portion of the Investment In economically relevant adult learning. According to an estimate by Alan P. Wagner. schools accounted for 44.6 percent of job-related adult educat ion expenditures in 1980. while nonschool providers (businesses. unions. military. government programs. etc.) accounted for 55.3 percent.r'" Another study by the Educauonal Testtng Service estimated that, of 64 million adult participants ill deliberate learning ill an organizational setting. roughly 72 percent wert' lcarntng through nonschool organizations compared to only 2H perccn t enrolled in schools and colleges. H:l Research by Allen Touuh of the Ontario Institute for Studies III Educat ton suggests that t he great majority of adult learning is self-directed and informal: 79 percent to 98 percent of t he adult population is estimated to participate in such lcarninj.!.x.,

The Youth Bias

Furt ln-rrnorc.

tional msutuuons

here is it clr-ar bias in most educaagainst ..dulls and In favor of youth.



Paul Barton. president and Learning. writes:

of the National


for Work

Tilt' largest tmpedlment to equal service in highcr educattou for adult workers is plain prejudu-e-i-prejudtce a,galns! the adult learner .... We have not yet achieved a system of adult education. Thus far. we have merely tinkered with youth-serving ins! uuttons .... There needs to be a new uuderstandrna of adult Iearntng defined not simply In contrast to the old tradtuons.eo

Lack of Information
In addition to misleading stereotypes and misconceptions about adult learning and the wide gaps in extstlng public policies. a major barrier to creating; the kind of learning enterprise needed by the new economy is an appalling lack of timely and accurate Information about the entire system of adult learning In the United States. We need more Information about: the demands for adult learning by both individuals and employers; the needs for learning in terms of changing occupational requtrernents and opportunities: the state of the art and projected trends ill learning technologies: and the shape of the market. in terms of the suppliers of learning products and services. Nut only are there deltct ts of mforrna ~10n in all of these categories. but there is a total lack of Integration of the information that docs exist to provide a comprehensive map-the proverbial "big pk-turev=-of the learning enterprise as an industry. Although the federal government has gath(Tt'd enormous volumes of data about elementary and secondary education. information about formal higher and adult education is far more sparse, and useful data about training and other nonforrnal. noninstitutional adult learning processes art' nearly nonexistent. III the area of fortnul educat ion. the principal tnlormatiOI1 n'SOliIH' is till' National Center for Education Stat is49



tics (NCES). But. as Paul Barton points out. this resource inadequate:
The NCES data an' Ilmtted in several respects. Only school-based Instruction Is measured. Only Individuals over the compulsory school age of 16 arc counted, although our popular dettnttton of youth extends to age 18 or 21. Furthermore, restricting adult education to partlime attendance Ignores the worker who gors to school full-time before going back to work. Moreover, the data measure education rather than learning ill the broad sensc,H6

Not only is the scope of federal education statistics inadequate. but the quality of the available data is sometimes dubious, for example. the Vocational Education Data System (YEDS). which cost about 8200 million over the past seven years. produced the following "facts": more than 29.000 Indians are enrolled in vocattonal education courses in Vtrumta (the total Indian population of the state is only 9.000): in New Jersey. 741.000 students took high school vocauonal education courses in 1979 (the number exceeds the state's total high school enrollment by 50 percent): In some states there arc large numbers of vocational educat ion students. but no teachers."? On the paucity of useful national information about the vast enterprise of private training. Paul Barton. again. comments:
... Wl' know almost nothing about tilt' dollar volume of private tramtnu mvestuu-nt. ... Corporate and union headquarters du not haw the data 011 which to bast' futun' tratnmg dectstons ('it ill'!", or at least 1101lt' arc in cvideuce. E\T1l firms cornrnttted to training do not have complete records on how much is performed. how much it costs. who gets It. and with what result .... An exerutive facing dectstons about how much to spend on training has pract trully not !lIng to go on III making .iUcigllH.'I1IS about alternuttve tnvestrnents.s''

The available tnformat ton about t ratntru; often is extrernely duted. The primary source of information 011 in50
" ,


dustrtal training. based on a survey of workers themselves. is a Department of Labor study done in 1963.H9 The latest comprehenstve survey of the training practices of large employers. done by the Conference Board. is 10 years old. lit)

Learning 1echnology
Up-to-date information on learning technology is even harder to come by. The best information about this technology is compiled by private market-research firms: but it is not nccessartly structured around learning as a market category it is mostly unpublished. and it is 110t commonly used by public policyrnakers. The comprehensive survey of Instructional technology by OTA Is two years old. and drew on information sources several years older. In this explosive field. three years Is almost ancient history. l\vo and a half years ago. there W('1'(, fewer than a dozen software packages available for the then-new IBM PC: now there arc over 10.000. Then. tht' home computer was a novelty; by 1985. as many as 20 million American homes will have computers. The most serious shortage of information on learning u-chnology may be not simply of published data but of basic knowledge. The available information slIp;gcsts that t he nat ion is not making an adequate effort in the H&D of learning technology The OTA study found that "to make the most elfecttve usc of technology, there was a need for H&D in learning strategies and cognitive development. methods for the production of effer ttve and economical currtcular software. and the long-term psychologtcal and cognitive impacts of technology-based education. "!11 In the federal government. the DOD now provides the bulk of R.&D support In the field of learning technology Civilian agency fur. ding for H&D in learning tcchnologj, the majority of which comes from the Department of Education. has fallen precipitously from a temporary shortterm peak in the late 1960s.!J:l

Job Swveillance
Another tion

area ill which a deficit of a(,(,t'ssiblr inforrnaan obstacle to t hr learnnu; cnterprtse is tilt>job

.. :



The diverse programs

and proposals

for training/

retratntng-c-frorn JTPA to Pat Choate's ITA-founder on the inability of the individual worker/student to link
learning to earning, that Is, to build a bridge between education or trauuru; and real employment opportunities, The principal public agency devoted to serving this need. the Employment Service. "has gained the reputation in many quarters since the mid-Bus of being a labor exchange for the lowest-paid and the highest-turnover jobs, , , , Actually, 38 percent of the new permanent job orders listed with the Employment Service are designated as low-skill. low-status occupations by the Department of Labor; "fl;) What we need, instead, says Lawrence Vickery of General Motors, is "some kind of surveillance system that shows jobs that do exist. where Liley exist and when are (other.s) going to be available, "H4 To be fully effective, the learning enterprise must be able to provide the consumer-s-both the employer and the individual worker-with sufficient information to know: What an' the learn ing requirements of not only existing but future occupattons? What is the competitive environment for a particular occupation (that is, how many and what kind otpeople arc pursuing the same career path)'? What learning products. technologies, and services are available? What is the expected return on specific investments in tratnmj; and cducat ion '? What and where arc the real opportunities for employmen t '? The same kind of information is critical to the suppliers of products and services for t he adult learning marIH't to develop their bustness plans. to at tract Investment. and to meet customers' demands, This tnformat ion dot's not now exist ill a form that can be used by the ('(HlSUI11CrS and supplie-rs who IHTd n.

Limned Resources
Ftnally, anv pract Iral solut ions to t 11('probk-ms ol' hu-

man capital.

adult learrunu.

and ('('()nol1li(' ck-velopnn-nt-c. '''f

the problems of the four Fs=-must recogntze the (:011stratnts of an era of ltnuts. The U.S, govcrnment is faced with ballooning deficits and is in no condition to take on massive new fiscal burdens, American industry, hectored by ever more intense toretgn competition. has made productivity and cftlctcncy its new watchwords, These trends have led to new more pragmatic thrusts in policy thtnktna. an interest in containing the ~).owth of government. in deregulating several industries, and in privatizing some public services: a concern for increasing the efficiency and productivity of both public and private enterprises: a desire to reduce dependency and to increase local and individual self-reliance: a broad sentiment in favor of partnership. both among governmcnt entities (for example. the Reagan administrations New Federalism Initiative) and between public and private institutions: a movement toward entrepreneurial management in both private and public organizations: ., a popular antipathy for bureaucracy and "red tape": and a tasctnat ion with high-technology tools-computers, telecornmuntcattons. robotics, and so forth. The concept of the learning enterprise itself is a way of accommodating solutions of the human capital crtsts to the reality of limned resources by ernphastztng technological mnovat ion. productivity. private ini t Iat tve. competition, entrepreneurship. and a primary focus on the needs of the learning consumer. America is now spending 8100 billion to 8200 billion or even more each year on adult learning of various kinds. DOD spends about S18 btllion a year on formal training and education: a large portion of the total defense budget represents the cost of on-going military training. There is no shortage of total resources available for adult learning. Resolving our human capital crisis does not necessarily require more resources. Rather, the resources already invested in learning need to be allocated more efficiently, more drcet lvely, and in some cases more equitably.
!I ( '0



What Must Be Done

An economy undergoing irresistible structural transformation contains the threat of severe human capital crisis and painful social upheaval. A national effort is needed to crystalllze public awareness and concern and to mobilize support for action to transform this crisis into an opportunity. With the cooperation of business. govemment , nonprofit organizations. associations. and others. the learning enterprise must and can become the backbone industry of a new. fourth sector of the modern economy. In general. we must work to attack the barriers described above: remedy gaps and deficiencies in existing polictes: educate the public to overcome popular misconceptions about the increasingly critical role of adult learnin~ in economic development: develop better information about all key aspects of the emerging learning enterprise: and find solutions that make minimal demands on limited public and private resources. Of these. the first objecuve should be to develop better information about the learning enterprise in a form that provides a comprehensive map-the big picture-of the adult learning system. including supply and demand. public and private. formal and nonformal. proprietary and nonprofit. institutional and individual. traditional and emerging elements. This mapping of the system is urgently needed by: extsung and prospective suppliers who need to know more about the needs. demands. and technologies of learning markets; consumers who need better information about the options available to meet learning needs; and public and private polirymakers. as a basis for devising policies that remove barriers and provide low-cost. cfttctent stimulation to the growth of the lear ntng enterprise. Of course. gathering more Information about the learntng enterprise will not. alone. provide sufftcient impetus for change. A detailed plan of action demands more rigorous research and analysis than this exploratory study has been able to provide. But t he following options for action are at least worth thinking about.
I. .

'1 l
, j


HedtKe emphasis on academic degrees. There is no Job in this economy that requires an academic degree for its effective performance. Demanding academic rredenttals as a condition of employment only serves as a barrier to competition. both in the job market and in the learning market. Fortunately. the trend in recent years has been fur more employers to include the phrase "or equivalent" when menttontng degree requirements in their job requisitions. The result of the proltferatton of degree granting and the decline of academtc standards is that a diploma. even from an allegedly "top" institution. by Itself tells an employer next to nothing about individual competence. Focus on evaluation oj cOT11petcmcy and achievement. The efficiency of the learning market depends on the ability of the consumer-whether individual or employer-to measure the value of the products and services offered by vendors. What needs to be measured is the competence and achievement resulting from learning. Evaluations administered by vendors themselves are mevttably handicapped by a contltct of interest. We need more and better independent testing and evaluation services-such as the Educational Testing Service-to assess the productivity and competitiveness of the learning process. Expand U&D and technology transfer: A larger and more focused investment is warranted in basic R&D in cognitive science and learning technology. Much of the research now going on in artiftctal intelligence and related domains of computer -ctence is relevant to learning but needs to be applied more explicitly to human learning needs. Much research is focused on childhood learning and development: adult learning and development is qualitatively different and demands at least an equal investment of research effort. DOD is the major source of support for research in artificial intelligence and advanced computer technology: DOD also is the major developer and user of learntng technology. Although some will debate whether DOD should be the focal }otnt for this work. the important need is to transfer DOD's technical knowledue and resources for adult learning to the civilian learning industry. To its credit. the department has been actively supporting such transfer. What may be needed is a complementary effort
"J, I ) .'

from outside of DOD--a collaborative venture of learning providers. consumers. associations. etc.-to identify what DOD has to offer and to accelerate its dissemination in the civilian economy. about future demands for human capital. our investments in human capital development arc likely to be more productive. Current job forecasts clearly do not adequately account for technological and other environmental changes. Actually. predicting future jobs is almost impossible. and is not particularly relevant to human capital investment decisions. What would be somewhat easter, and more useful. is to tdenttty how specific areas of knowledge and skill compare In terms of expected benefits and risks. The need is not so much for bet ter official forecasts as it Is for a more robust supply of advisory services. People who are buying real estate 01' Investing in stock find an enormous social infrastructure-brokers. lawyers. accountants. books. newsletters. seminars. financial institutions. govt'rnment regulators. consumer groupsready and eager to help them get a rewarding return on that kind of investment. By contrast. the sources we can turn to for advice on an investment in our personal human capital arc less abundant and less sophisticated. With over 8100 billion (perhaps over 8200 billion) being spent annually in the U.S. on adult learntng, developing advisory services for human capual tnvestors (100 million or more people) would seem to be a golden opportunity for en trepreneu rs. of companies in telecommuntcattons, computers. and software have begun to pursue educut ion as an attractive market. Bu t many of these new entrants to the learning industry have been concentrating on products and services for children rather than for adults. The adult market is actually a larger and more lucrauve one for new venturers in the learning enterprise. Though the amount of money devoted to elementary/ scr : -lary education seems large. most of it is tied up in rn l' .. tions-part tcularly for bu ildi ngs and salaries-and
lite adult 56
Focus lelernatlcs industry products learning market. A number Develop human capital investment advisory vices. To the extent that we have better intelligence ser-

and services on



is not available for dtscrettonary purchases from private vendors. There are only a few thousand schools in the country. and st'lling to them is difficult. The adult learning market is over $100 billion a year, The majortty of the market is non-Institutional. For the most part. adult learning is purchased by the consumer (in contrast to childhood education. which is purchased by someone else 011 behalf of the consumcr.) The demand for adult learning products and services is substantial. it is here now. and it is ~rowing as the baby boomers age. as career transitions become more frequent. and as the distribution of employment In the economy shifts toward knowledge work and training-intensive industries. Uevise the ftnanctnq q{ human capital. Within the generally confused social contract concerning human capital. the area most urgently dernandtna attention is finance. We need to rethink the means for financing human capital development and the resulting dlstrtbut ton of benefits. costs. and obligations. U.S. tax laws already favor physical capital over human capital development; a tax bill recently passed by Congress would further reduce the Incentives for investment In training and education. Although Pat Choate's ITA proposal may not be perfect. among its most commendable features is the linkage of savings to human capital investment. This is an important shift away from entitlements and borrowing as major mechanisms for ttnanctna adult training and education. The overall problem is complex, and deserves the serious attention of public and prtvate policy analysts. Hetltink. This exploratory study necessarily raises more questions than It answers. Its immediate goal Is to provoke serious reexarrunat ion of the crit k..al role of adult learning in a changing economy Government leaders need to rethink many of thetr existing poltctes concerning education. training. economic development. ami human capital. St ues in part tcular are likely to find literally dozens of state polictes having an impact on adult learning-accrediting and operating institutions. ltcenstnu professions. providing financial ald. administering tests, and so forth. This reexamination should Iorus Oil finding ways to accele-rate the maturation of the adult il'arning market. and to increase cornpet it ion.

. 'oJ


1.I~AI~NIN(i E.!,;TEHI'I~ISI!:

Managers. workers. and owners in both private and public organtzauons need to rethink the social contract surrounding the human capital they employ Finally. people in the myriad businesses that constitute the learning Industry need to adopt a broad vision of their cconoiruc role. and must take the lead In building the learning enterprise our whole society so urgently requires. The learn ing en terprtse Is not a panacea for all the ills of an economy in transition. But it is an essenttal lubrtcant for the wheels of change. The good news is that the same telemattc technology that is causing economic upheaval can cncnnze the learntng process that the transformation demands. In the words of the philosopher Pogo. we seem to be confronted with an "insurmountable opportunity."




I, !'aul K Barton, \\'orkl{/I> '/hl1l~III()1(s: Till' Adult lioll (New Yo~l{: M(,(jn.lwHiII. HlH2J, p,lOu,
2, P I>nl('kt'I', "quality Edul'alioll: Jou1'1Iai July W, 19Ha. The I'Il'\\' Growth



Era," \Vetil Stre('t


3. !'al Choate. U('to()lillfj




SlrcI/C'm1 (Washillgroll,


W()rk/ilrn': Tou-art! Nortlu-ast-Mtdwest


lnst lt ute.

Jill.\' I HH2t, p.l. 4, "For Americans Unnble to I{('ad Well, LlII' Is a SNil'S of Small Crtses." Wall S/r('('1 .JollrTI(l1 January 17, IBH4. 5. ibid.
6, Basi: Skills
H('SOl I rn's

til til!' U.S. Work Forco , Fehruarv, IUH:L


York: l'('1I11'r lor Public

7. Lenore Salt mau. DOD.

H. A III(.'riCCl :..
('()lIIfJ(litil( (,11(I1l(II~II.': TIl(' '\;ctcl.1ilr Cl ,\'((liOIlCIi Rc SP01lse': A Rcpon III tile' 1'1'('siel('111 c!1 III(' 11llilf'cl SICII('S ./mll! /Ii(' HIISill(sslIi,c/ller Education FO,.1I11I IWashin!.tlon. 1)(': BIiSilll"'-;sHight'l" Educat lnn Forum, April IUH:3J,p.11.

9. Ciloalt'. RC'100lill!/,



'/i'dI1l010H!1 (lOci !.;1IIplll!l1llC',Il, SubromruttuxOil S('I('11('(', Hrs('ar('h ami lhjllloIOl'\'V nlIluSeil'III'(' alld n'dl!!olol..\,v Comnutu-c. and Task For('t' lin Edurattun and Euiploymout III Ill!' BlIdg('1 Comuum-e. U.S, Hous or H('PI"t'~(IIIClliV(s. JlIlH' 72:1. 1!IH:i,


Harton. Work/1ft'


p.74. P(JSI ,)allllal)' :i I, 1~)H4, US


12, "Trends:

Toduv," Wlls/tiTH/loll


"('Ult ini.! Elllplo~'IIH'III: Wlrat Ri-pon SepII'llIlll'I"!l. IlJH:1.



&. World

14. U.S. 01111"1' oJ 'lh'II!IIlIOI!~'

wlCllIs Impel!'1 Oil I\11Il'rinl1l



lntoruuu uina! 1('c/lllOlocl!1 UTA( TI~IH7 1\\'aslrillgIOII.


1)('; UIA I:>. AI-'I.('IO


1'\0\"1'1111)('1" HlH21. p.IOo.

('(1111111 i lIel' 011

rx ':


till' Evolutioll (II Wor k , Tlu: AIIl!lIS( I!JH:n p.H. IIII' Joh Even
ParI., With
St arts."

o! l'\'ork

1b. Stl'\'I'1I


"l'a~' ('Ills


FOr/IIIII' .JillIlIal)'

9. JHH4. 17. "!\!o!"t

("OIIITrll ... Set '1\\'0'1'11'1" l!1I101l ....



lim'..,. "Willi


I!>. 1!IH:1.

IH. Anrhon,: I' ("anll'\';IIt' ;I:tcl Harold (;ol<bll'lIl. Emplo!I('C' '['milli1lct: lt ('111111(1111.1/ HII/c' etnri All ",,(I/I/SI ... 01 i\"'II' /)CII(I. AIIH'I'lI"ilil SOCII'I.\' for 'ILIIIlIlIJ' ;lIld I kvl'lojl II lI'l II. 1\:.lli(lIl.11 hSlll'S SI'I'II' ... JWa ...lunuron. [)(': ASTI J 111........ 1<tH: II. p.:.! I.

. ,
.1 ;,


1B, "\Val'l1lll~s of a Lawyer Glut Are Sounded ill~lon Post .July 31. Im'l:3. 20, "For Doctors. 'loo, It's a Surplus:' bel' 19, 1983,

at ABA Conventton."


US News & World Report Decemof Law Profession," chip on joblessness." Wall Busi

21. "COIllPlItt'I'S Arc Transformtnu Tradtttous Slreet Journal August 19, 1983.

22, "Wl'lghing the impact of the electronic ness Week November 7, 1983. 23, "A spark of militancy her 5, 1983. 21. Davtd Birch,

In the land of loyalty," Business

Week Septern-

Ueartnu un 'i'cchnoluyy and Employment.

25. AFLCIO, Future q( Work, p.12. 26. David Blrch. ill lleartnq 011 nxhllolo9!1 27. AfLCIO, Future 28. Heartnqs

allci Employment.

q(Work, p.12,

1eclillolu~m and Emp/oumenl. to

29, l'homasJ. Moon', "Tinker. Tatlor, Waitress. Clerk: Is It Worthwhile Go to Colle~{")," Washillf/loli Post October 23, 1983.

30. Moore. "Ttnker, 'Iatlor, ... '': "More U.S. Aid Souuht to Stop 'Erostun' of Grad-School Quality," Washington Post D('{'C'lIIbC'r 13. 1983, :11. Bob Kuttner, "The D('{'lillln,g Middle." Allanlic Montllly July 19H3: "Many .Junr Graduates ArC' Still Hunung for a First Career Job." Wall Slr('(>1 Juurnal October IH, 1983: Russell Rumberger, In HearillfiS on T('clJnolo~1!JWid Emptoument: Moore, "T'Inker; Tailor, ... ": "More U.S. Aid Sought ... ," Washillglon PUSl December 13, lY83. :12. lt htel de Sola Pool. '''Il'al'kill,l.! the Flow of Information," gust 12. IBH3. SCience Au-



01 the Assistant S{'('rt'tal)' for Educauonal H('St'(IITh aud (III' provemcnt. Complllers III I::dIICCJliOII: H('cliiy.ill!1 1/1(' Potentia! IWasil IlI,1.!toll.DC: U.S. l repartrucnt of Educauon. .Junv 19H:n p.~).

:\4, Hearinqs

Oil Ted II 10 IO[/!I

alld Emplo!lllll'III.

:\!). 01'A, lq/iJrnlClli()/wl


au. u.s. Dept.


of Ed ..

('UlIlplII('rs ill EdllCClliolt. (jot'S 011 tilt,

p. W.

Brunn. "Educut ton March 20. WM4.

5-'ahlr Plan." PC

aH, Rnhard M. Cver t , "Personal COIIIIHllillg ill Eclu('utioll seurth ," 5cil'/If'l' November II, WH:\: "( 'artlcgl('Ml'llol1

Srun-hcs for Ways to USl' Small Computers SIrt'('1 JOllrIJn/.Jullt' 2H. IHH;1. :\B, "Courses III Computer
511"('('r .JolirnClI Septemher


and ReFaculty tilt, l.therul Arts." W(lil

l.tterury Bt'gilH1ll1~ to Draw Bad Marks," Wull 16, I ~'H:\.


40. Jot'! ()rt'yfuss, 2. mH4.

"What Will St'nd tht' Compuu-r

I-ilrllllll' April

I.... _




US News &. Worlci Repon


I. 1983. p.BC-5.

42. Dreyfuss.

"What Will Send the Computer

Home." to 'nil~l' Olf." The Futur\\i!ek January

43. "Computertzed I100lll' Education lSI August 19H3.


44. "New h.Clrnil1g ganll's


make the gradt ." Busilless ledlnoio9Y. p.lO.



45. OTA. IIj{omtntiollai

46. M. Mitchell Waldrop. "Artlfi<:iallr1t('lllgt'Ill'l' ence February 24. 19H4. 47. OTA. IIlJormatiollat
48. "Soft wan' Firm 'ii!dllloio9!1. Taps Market for

Into the World." Sd



Wall Street Journal Business

November 15. 19t:!3.

49. "Control Data: Is there room for change after Uill Norrts"." \Vt'<.'k October 17. 19H3,

50. "AT&T Contract 198a.

Hailed as Landmark."
"The ('Iwnglng


Post August


51. Samuel L. Dunn, 19H:l.


Tlie FliLUrls( August

52. Gelll' Bot toms. in 1I('0l'11I9S 011 'J(:cllIlOi09Y

53. DOD sources.

allci cmpiO!lIllt'llt.

54. Carnevale G6. Choate.

57. Americas 5H, Carnevale

and Goldstetn.




55. Gt'IlC Bottoms.

Ull 'Ii'chlloioml

UlHl I::lllpi()!JnH.'1l1.

f<t'tooitng. Comp(tilive (,I.ollc"l~l('. p.2:~.

and Goldstetn.


TruillIIlY. p,5!), groulHl." Hllsi Ilf'SS WCf.'k St'P1'illl('s Auuust


59. "Sm:11I bustness:

ternber S. I ~HJ. 60. "<it, thr jump

t hl' nation's

Irain iIIg

011 1001IorroW:"




61. "New Ft'dt'rdl Approach October 17. WH:L

.Job Trailling."


&. Worlel Report

62. lI('clI'ill9s 011 '/i'dllwio!/ll

(jj. Bartoli.


p.HO. 011." \\'W,ltillHlull 1'0.0.;1 ay 20. M

WOI~i!1i' TrwlsiClolIs.



of Harts 'New tdt'as'ls



tiS. ibid.

Comlt",,!! and (;oldslC'ill. f:lIlpio!lc't'




li7. 1\111111('('. "lkdillillg


UH. AFL-( '10. F'tlltm' (!f W()rk. p.7. 61 .

. ,~

6B. "Wal..!l'Study Doesn't

19M. 70. BLS Bulletin

Find H 2Tlrr Sortetv," \\-nshll1gtol1

Post April!.

2121. WH2.

71. tbut. 72, Marvin ,J. ('('11'011. "Getting Futunst .June WH~~. 73. Kuttner,

Heady for t lit' Jobs of the Fut ure." 'rile

Middle." p.67.

74. Letter; \\-all Slr('el Journal '15. J. Weaver. Small Busrncss

:3. Hl~3.
tn Work


76. D. Y.. nkelovk-h and J. Imrnewalu. Puuinq 1/1(.' Work Ethic i (Nt'\\! York: The Publu- Agl'II(la Foundat ion. WH:H 77. "Wharton Students

'luke a Long 'lrtp on the Fast Road to Success," March 26. 1984.

7H. V W. Seidel and R Seidel. eels" H(:r()rnlitl~J MediCI nc: Lessons ottiie l.ast quarrel' Centuru (Nt'w York: Pantheon, 1984): Edward D. Martin. MD. Dtrertor, Bureau of Health Can' Delivery and Assistnncc, Health HCSOllITI'S and Services Administration, "Statemcnt't before the Subcomm IIIl'(' on EIl(I'.ltv. Nuclear Proliterauon and Government Processt-s of ,11(' U.S. S('mltt' Comnntte on Governmental Affairs. April 12, 19H4. 78. Bartoli.
HO. ibul.,

Work/!Ii.' 1'mlisillOllS,


~ I. Curnevak:

and Goldsu-tn,

f:l1Iplo!lt't' 'j'ruillill{J.

H2. tbu! .. p.:~H. HJ. Hrynu Slion- Fraser. 1'11<' SI rllC't II1'1 , orlldll/t l.earnitv), Eduratton, (IIld TraillillH Oppol'tllllil!1 ill tlu: Ulllt('(i .stCl!(,S IWashltlgtoll. 1)(': Nanouul lusruut for \Vorl( and I.lal'llillg. WHC), p.5. H4. illici.

H5, Barron.

V.'ork/!lI' "I'mIIsil iOlls. IIII' Li 11('." \\'w .. !irl9toll I

pp. )(}!)!l.

HH. il1i(/ .. p.ll.

H 7 .... Facts' I'u t ,Jolls :\1h"ioll IHH4. HH. Hal'lOIl. \\.'mldl/f'

J 'ost i\t"I'\'i1 :W,


H!l. IiJicl.. p.IO I. !IO. i/JlCI.. \II.


OTA. /T!/IJrlIIIIIICJllfd tim/ .. p.111 \\'or/dl/I'



H:i. Bal'lllll.

'/'((111 .... /11111 p.!);). 1 .....

J 'J)',,>pld('c'd \\"rkcr..... ."

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Commit tee 011 the Evolut ion of Work (19H:n TIl(! Future qf Work (Washington. DC.). August.

A Report to the Prestdent of the United States from the BusinessHlgl1<>r Education Forum (IBH3). America:-; Conipetiuoe Cnallonue: Tlu: Needfor a Nattonat Response (Washington. DC.). April. Barton. Paul E. (l982). \Vorkl{te Transtliolls: Cotinecuon (New York: McGraw-Hill).
Tlu: Adult Learning

Carnevale, Anthony n and Harold Goldstein (198:3). Etnplouee Tratruno: Its Changing Role and Clll Allnlusis q{ New Data. Amvrtcan Sortcty for 1hllnlng and Development. National Issues Sertes (Washington. DC: AST[) Press).


for Publrc Resourc-es (I!:}H:n Basic Skills iTt lite U.S. Work Force (New York). February

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Byrn<l Shore (WHO). Tlu: Structure o! Adult Learnnu]. Educcuion, Wid Trainiuq Opport unin] ill tlu: Unitecl Suues, Nuttonul lnsttt uu- for Work and Livnu; (Washington. DC.). Middle". Atlantic
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