Aug 14th Aug 20th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 15

Elite Global Trading

Forex Weekly Commentary

Fundamental Outlook
day In these volatile markets with pressure coming off the US for now. Keep any eye in the Swiss Franc on a possibility target band or peg, so range may become tight in all CHF pairs, keep an eye on the data out of Switzerland, for all CHF pairs will be affected.

In this issue: USDCHF AUDUSD NZDUSD GBPCHF GBPUSD GBPJPY EURUSD EURJPY EURCHF Event Risk Contact Info Disclaimer 6 5 4 3 1 2

An economic outlook for the week with eyes on Spain and Italy debt and French CDS over the next few weeks in the Eurozone. In the US TIC on Monday some important numbers and Thursday is a big day for US data. The past few weeks have been extremely volatile with a calmer week ahead can be expected with no very critical data compared to the past few weeks. The change in focus happens day to

United States Dollar / Swiss Franc

USDCHF: The Swiss Franc reached a extreme high last week and has shown a strong weekly reversal in all its pairs. With mixed USD data this week expected to come out, this pair had a strong reversal weekly bar last week and is expected to continue its move towards major resistance at .8285 before it makes another move downwards following its long-term trend Bearish. A pullback is expected before this pair continues its bull move. Recommendation: Short term bullish, wait for pullback to enter this pair on the long and careful of congestion. A pullback to .7800 and .7730 is expected prior to long continuing. A further move down brings support at .7670, .7590 and .7490. Congestion is probable for this pair so be careful for what to expect with the moves when entering. Resistance on upside is at .7915, .7954, .8030 .8140. +

Aug 14th Aug 20th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 15

Elite Global Trading

Australian Dollar / United States Dollar

AUDUSD: Last week this pair reached a low of .9925. Last week the low happened on Tuesday and the week closed with the entire short move being retraced close to where the open was of the week. This gives us a weekly reversal candle that may indicate that the low of .9925 is in place for the month and a look higher is likely or congestion in current monthly range to the high of 1.1060. With this wide range to play in we have some levels to play both on long and short side. Current picture indicates to a move higher for the beginning of week. With RBA coming out with their Monetary Policy Meeting Min on Monday, current outlook shows that they may be looking to lower rates, if this is the case a bearish opportunity may present itself. A move towards 1.0500 is likely within the next 24 hours prior to event. Recommendation: Neutral, Monday evening will give us a stronger picture of the week after RBA comes out with their min, if a dovish outlook for economy then we will likely see a move lower, other wise we may see a move to higher resistance levels at 1.0500, 1.0680 and 1.0700. Support sits at 1.0366, 1.0250 1.0200 1.0110. Looking for plays on both long and short side.

New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) / United States Dollar

NZDUSD: This pair has the same weekly bar from last week as the AUDUSD, also this pair came off its all time highs the previous week giving this pair a range of over 900 pips for the month. With last weeks weekly bar showing a doji, a move higher is probable for this pair as well. A move to .8400 and .8500 is very probable to start this week off, a pullback towards .8300 can be expected prior to the move up to these resistance levels. The only news on the docket this week to watch for is on Tuesday at 6:45pm, PPI, which is expected to be weaker which may turn this pair back to a short play to support levels. Recommendation: Neutral, Look higher to start the week off towards .8400-.8500 and stronger resistance at .8650 area. With Tuesday's numbers most likely weaker a move lower is probable and a short down to support may present itself. Support sits at .8308, .8280, .8214, .8170 and .8100. a break their will bring the low of .7960 into play.

UK Pound Sterling / Swiss Franc

GBPCHF: The Swiss Franc reached a extreme high last week and has shown a strong weekly reversal in all its pairs. The GBPCHF is coming off its all time low at 1.1459 last Tuesday and has driven to its most recent high at 1.2885 to start this week off. A test of some higher levels is likely before this pair goes back to its long term bearish bias. A pull back towards 1.2550 is likely prior to this bull move continues. Recommendation: Short Term Bullish Bias, looking for pull back towards 127.00-125.50, topside resistance levels to watch for where major resistance may be is at 1.3080 a break here will push towards 1.3160 1.3260 and 1.3300. With the strong 4 day recovery up to these highs a recovery pullback is expected prior to these resistance levels being tested. Support sits at 1.2770 1.2650 and 1.2549. If the 1.3080 level holds on upside a look to the short side may come into play. Take into consideration this pair has moved up from low of 1400 pips inside 3 days, which is indicative of an impulsive move.

Aug 14th Aug 20th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 15

Elite Global Trading

UK Pound Sterling / United States Dollar

GBPUSD: This pair has an economic focus on Tuesday with expected CPI numbers to come out with an increase which may push this pair higher with hopes the UK will raise rates sooner then later. With this months low sitting at 1.6100 and high at 1.6475 we are looking at a possible push higher from current levels to test 1.6475 again, but with the UK still standing firm with holding rates and most likely not to give an hint of when they will make a move the top of 1.6475 may stand strong and a new low may be more likely. Wednesday is the meeting min and most likely when a bear move will present itself. Recommendation: Neutral with a possibility on the long side prior to Wednesday, but with the UK meeting min on Wednesday morning, likely to continue the dovish outlook which will drive this pair lower, exposing a short opportunity to the lows. Highly probable for the pair to test highs at beginning of week and make a move lower after Wednesday. Economic outlook does not look strong enough to break highs.

UK Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen

GBPJPY: This pair similar to EURJPY with the BOJ possibility of intervention, if this were to happen this pair will also surge higher. Current outlook for this pair is lower to new lows. With the Pounds CPI numbers out Tuesday most likely giving strength to GBP pairs, this pair most likely to break higher to start week off, but will not last with weak outlook from UK on Wednesday. So look for some upward movement to start this week off in this pair but by Wednesday tops to be created and look to the bear side. Now this is subject to change based on BOJ to intervene, like I said before which would make this pair surge to highs above the 130s. Recommendation: Long term picture is Bearish, a move to resistance levels to start week off is expected, 126.20, 126.60 and strong resistance at 127.00 area. A break of these levels will most likely come from a BOJ intervention, if this does not happen then a push lower is likely after these levels are tested. Most likely a shift to bear side will come after Wednesday, which is when UK will give its rate outlook.

Aug 14th Aug 20th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 15

Elite Global Trading

Euro / United States Dollar

EURUSD: This pair has been in congestion between a low of 1.4050 and a high of 1.4450 for a few weeks now looking for a direction. Current pattern is a descending triangle with the top of triangle around 1.4430 and bottom around 1.4150. As we come closer to the apex of the triangle we are likely to see a break into a direction giving us a clearer picture of which way the trend will go. With the stability of the euro zone to be uncertain a bearish outlook from an economic standpoint stands strong. This week we have GDP numbers on Tuesday expected to show shrinking economic outlook in Germany, and CPI numbers on Wednesday. These two events are the focus of the week regarding economic data. A rally to the highs is likely to start the week off. Recommendation: Bearish Bias for longer term picture. Highest probability play will be on the short side after rally to top of downward trend line around 1.4330-1.4400. In order for a break up above those numbers we will need to see some economic support with a weaker USD dollar or a strong EUR. On the short side within the triangle we have support at 1.4201, 1.4150, a break below will be driven from an economic event and will most likely push to retest 1.4050 and 1.4000, a break lower will bring 1.3950 and 1.3840 into sight. On top side we have 1.4315, 1.4366, 1.4400 and 1.4450 as resistance. A break above this resistance will most likely happen with support from an economic event which does not look probable this week.

Euro / Japanese Yen

EURJPY: This pair is coming off its low last week of 108.00 from the high of April at 123.30. With the BOJ looking to step in to weaken it's currency we may start to see a further recovery up in the weeks to come. The current trend on this pair is Bearish from a longer term view. The long plays are currently limited until we get further confirmation. The short plays need to be played with caution to the BOJ and their interest to intervene on its currency the YEN. If an intervention happens the pair will certainly make a sharp move higher. Recommendation: Bearish Bias, step a side on the short plays until we get confirmation that the BOJ will NOT intervene anymore. Only play here will be bull plays which are still early and dangerous, depending on your entries and exits. Support at 109.48, 109.24, 108.80 108.40 and low at 108.00. Resistance on upside is 110.30, 110.70, 111.10 and 111.40. Currently waiting for pull back prior to entry on long side. Unless we get strength in the EURO this week to break higher, or the BOJ intervenes on the YEN to push this pair up, the upside may be capped and another push lower may occur and can not be ruled out.

Aug 14th Aug 20th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 15

Elite Global Trading

Euro / Swiss Franc

EURCHF: The Swiss Franc reached a extreme high last week and has shown a strong weekly reversal in all its pairs. With the EUR in a tight range now we may see the EURCHF pair make small move higher and start to congest in current range. A strong resistance level on the upside is 1.1653, below this we are looking at a long term bearish bias. This pair as the other CHF pairs has a weekly reversal bar from last week indicating a possible direction change, which may give this pair a look higher. Prior to going higher a pullback is expected towards 1.1150-1.1080. Congestion can be expected with this pair, so small moves on bull or bear can be made, favoring short term bull moves, need to keep in mind the longer term is still bearish on all CHF pairs except CHFJPY and need to keep that in mind on the profit side when in a long position. This pair has a range of 1400pips this month giving opportunity to both the bull and bear side, keep in mind the strengthof the CHF and an economic changes for the SWISS FRANC.

Recommendation: Short term bullish bias with taking in consideration the long term Bear outlook. Looking for a pullback to occur towards 1.1150-1.1080. Possible entry on the bull side taking into consideration the levels on the way up and strength in the move. A reversal sign to short side will give a longer term play to some lows, with support at 1.0978, 1.0828, 1.0680 and 1.0537.

Weeks Event Risk

Monday: USD: TIC Long Term Purchases 9am AUD: Monetary Policy Meeting Min 9:30pm Thursday: Tuesday: EUR: German CPI 2am GDP: CPI 4:30am EUR: Flash GDP 5am USD: Building Permits 8:30am USD: Capacity Utilization 9:15am NZD: PPI Output 6:45pm Friday: EUR: German PPI 2am Wednesday: EUR: Current Account 4am GBP: MPC Meeting Min 4:30am EUR: CPI/Core CPI 5am GBP: Public Sector Borrowing 4:30am CAD: Core CPI 8:30am GBP: Retail Sales 4:30am USD: Core CPI 8:30am USD: Unemployment Claims 8:30am USD: Existing Home Sales 10am USD: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 10am USD: PPI 8:30am JPY: Trade Balance

Elite Global Trading

News letter Authors: Anthony Rousseau

arousseau@eliteglobaltrader.com

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