Key areas of research

Center for Global Environment Research (CGER) Earth Science & Climate Change Division

Centre for Global Environment Research

Dedicated centre on climate change research set up in 1989 Undertake research and outline effective policy initiatives that integrate developing country concerns in the search for effective and equitable solutions to global environmental challenges

Climate modeling activities Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation assessment GHG inventorisation, mitigation options Policy review and analysis, international negotiations Capacity building and outreach

Regional Models and their importance for Impact Studies

The observational feature of rainfall is not well represented by Coupled Models, however Regional Climate Models are able to represent the feature with reasonable degree of accuracy.

Rainfall Projections using PRECIS

Extreme - scenario (20712099) Moderate-scenario

Temperature change using PRECIS

Extreme-scenario (20712099) Moderate-scenario

TERI Study with ORNL on Impacts of severe Climate change over North India region
To analyze potential impacts of severe climate change scenario over North Indian using fossil fuel intensive scenario A1fi and to link these impacts with the socio-economic scenarios developed for the country at state scales using population and demand projections at the state level.
Climate Change Projections over India from CCSM3 at 150 km resolution
Socio-economic scenario generation using demographic and economic details of the state for the different narrative storylines.
1. 2. 3. 4. Validation of CCSM3 Methodology to calculate extreme events Determination of severity of cyclones Methods to estimate snow melt over the Himalayan region Qualitative linkages to find the hotspots due to climate change and the socio-economic drivers and best strategies for the North Indian states to follow

Impacts on water, agricultural demand, health infrastructure demand etc., for the four different scenarios

Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation assessments

Macro and micro vulnerability assessments Sectoral analysis

Agriculture crop growth models Water storm surge, hydrological models Forests/ biodiversity biome model/ RS and GIS Coastal regions RS and GIS Health statistical analysis

Costs of adaptation

Sectoral assessments (health, forestry, water, agriculture, coastal zones)

Contributions to National Communications to UNFCCC (NATCOM I, II) Mapping climate vulnerability and poverty in Africa

Mapping layers of vulnerability: Impacts of climate change and globalization on Indian agriculture
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Adaptive capacity Biophysical vulnerability Soil degradation and cover Groundwater availability

Climate sensitivity (monsoon dependence and dryness)

Climate change vulnerability

Social vulnerability Agricultural workers and labourers Literacy Gender discrimination Child mortality and fertility
Technological vulnerability Irrigation Infrastructure

Trade sensitivity (port distance and import- Globalization vulnerability sensitive crops)

Source: TERI, 2003

Vulnerability profiles
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Adaptive capacity + Climate sensitivity

Adaptive capacity + Trade sensitivity

Source: TERI, 2003

Vulnerability profiles

Regions with highest climate sensitivity and exposure are not necessarily the most vulnerable

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Assessment of vulnerability of Indian agriculture to double exposure (climate change and globalization)- a case study (Source: TERI, 2003)

Sensitisation and awareness-raising

Climate risk screening

Climate change and disasters profile 1. Climate science 2. Vulnerability

Strategic Overview

3. Economic impacts

Selects high risk projects

Initial Portfolio Screening

Climate change and disasters assessment Multi criteria analysis of options

Adaptation / Risk reduction options

Risk assessment and adaptation options

Cost benefit analysis

Cost benefit analysis

Options analysis
Adaptation options integrated Risk screening of future programming

Coastal vulnerability assessment and strategies for better preparedness towards impacts of climate change and sea level rise: State of West Bengal

Site focus

Broad objective

Is to describe current and projected vulnerabilities to impacts of climate change in the study area
Identify target areas for interventions for development of suitable adaptation strategies to projected impacts of climate change

Specific objectives

Climatic-hazard mapping of the West Bengal coast (covering the deltaic region) Estimate SLR Impacts mangrove ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater resources, fisheries and aquaculture; and human systems, by loss to tourism, human settlements and health Vulnerability assessments of communities living in the Sunderbans Draw policy conclusions and recommendations

Flowchart of West Bengal project components

CLIMATE DATASETS Baseline data Projected dataset under A2 scenario Trends and climatology of different weather parameters (temperature, rainfall etc.) for the study region using baseline data and projected data BASE MAPS of the 3 districts (Medinipur, South 24 P and North 24 P) Hazard and vulnerability mapping component

Policy recommendations for adaptation interventions

Flood hazard

Cyclone hazard
Storm surge hazard SLR hazard

Multi-hazard maps ( for baseline period and under climate change scenario A2)

Vulnerability mapping Impacts matrix (grading of risk) for each of the sectors Surface Water resources Ground water saline intrusion Ecosystems Agriculture Health Human Settlements & tourism Vulnerability assessment for communities dependent on Sunderban ecosystem for their livelihood

Sect oral impact assessment component Community vulnerabili ty component

Filtered PMSL over Bay of Bengal

Thank you