Integrated Climate Impact Assessment Software System for Urban Policy Makers

Framework and mock-up

Purpose
The following framework represents a strategic goal reached through a technical feasibility study and is to stimulate discussion. Actual componentry and functionalities are to be defined and prioritized through end user involvement.

Questions
How can a software tool help in the policy making process? How can climate change issues be emphasized in the tool? What kind of methodologies can be applied to help simplify complicated systems? How can multiple components be programmed within the software system? What might the tool look like?
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Understanding the policy making process

(Linking theory and practice)

Risk, uncertainty and decision-making framework (RUD) (Source: UKCIP) Emphasising the importance of the adaptive approach to managing climate change problems Encourage feedback and iteration Certain stages (3, 4 and 5) are tiered. This allows the decision-maker to identify, screen, prioritise and evaluate climate and non-climate risks and options, before deciding whether more detailed risk assessments and options appraisals are required
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Sectoral interaction in relation to climate change (theoretical structure)

Climate change issues are central Risk, adaptation, mitigation and economics are core issues In the context of urban planning and policymaking All sectors link to climate change issues (each sector has a long list of risks and opportunities) Sectors interact by nature (can be complicated)

Philosophy 1: Out of clutter, find simplicity

Modelling methodological structure

Models must be coupled and developed using an integrated model and system dynamics methodologies. (Model registry, data exchange, workflow definition)

Philosophy 2: In the middle of difficulty, lies opportunity.

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Model Integration Tool System Dynamics Methodology

A unique advantage of applying system dynamics models is the ease of extension and revision as additional questions arise. Software system must allow users to add models, input and output of the model, use a visual coupling tool for data conversion, define workflows, run workflows, and monitor workflows.

Layered open framework software structure

One radiant concept

Six core components as solid foundation

Six interactive components as the functionalities link with policymakers and model developers Nine key stages of policy making process link the theory to practice
Philosophy 3: From discord, find harmony.

Framework summary
Theoretical structure: Focus on climate change risk, adaptation, mitigation economics, and link to sectors. Modelling methodological structure: Provide integration of methodologies, emphasis on climate change economic analysis, and scenario planning.

Software engineering structure: Provide a layered open framework for the urban climate change policymaking processes.

Dr. Wei Ye A mock up of a software system

Mock-up flowchart (link to policy making procedure)

PM Stage1

Project setup
Project define Sector selection Model integration Data management ----import data

Model simulation setup

Climate scenario Socio-economic develop-scenario Adaption and/or mitigation option --selection, related cost estimate Loss estimate method -damage function Target setting

Result visualization and analysis

Run Model

--graphing --Google earth --spatial display --summary Result translation

PM Stage 8

PM Stage 3,4,5

Implement

Plan revisit

PM Stage 7

Target and evaluation indicators

Risk level reduction PM level reduction asset loss reduction GDP loss avoid Mitigation target

PM Stage 2 Stage 9

Decision making
CCMCDA Reporting --Description --Table, Graph

Model reset

NO

PM Stage 6

YES

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Health impact assessment Health impact assessment

Emission sources Emission sources Transport Transport Vehicle spatial distribution Vehicle spatial distribution Motorcycle, Car/Jeep/van Motorcycle, Car/Jeep/van Bus/Truck Bus/Truck

Options/objective Cost benefit Cost effectiveness WTP/GDP, COI, VSL

Development Development plan plan Population Population Industry, Industry, transport transport

Emission sources Emission sources (Non transport) (Non transport) Source load spatial distribution Source load spatial distribution Annual emissions, Industrial, Annual emissions, Industrial, Domestic, &changes Domestic, &changes

Emission Emission Total PM, SOx,NOx,CO2 Total PM, SOx,NOx,CO2 Industry, Power plant Industry, Power plant Domestic, Transport Domestic, Transport

Ambient Ambient concentration concentration

Global climate change scenarios

Local CC scenarios Temperature, precipitation, extremes, heatwaves, Vector borne diseases

Health impact Health impact DALY, Morbidity, Premature DALY, Morbidity, Premature mortality, acute respiratory mortality, acute respiratory symptoms, heat strokes symptoms, heat strokes

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Integrated model development as interactive process (model coupling tool)

Problem identification

Sub-model/function and interaction formulation (coupling) Model simulation

Model validation

Reformulation of the integrated models Application of the integrated model

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benefit

Project finished in 2015

damage investment
Project finished in 2020

Timeline

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Project cost benefit ranking

Proposed Resilience Action Economic 1 2 3 7 8 .5 Social 6 8 3 .

COSTS
TOTAL Other C 2 5 0 14 21 8

BENEFITS
TOTAL Other B 7 6 6 7 9 0 20 24 10

B/C Ratio Comparison

Envt

Economi c 6 9 4

Social

Envt

1.40 1.14 1.25

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Agile Software Development

Test driven development, release workable software regularly (staged approach) .

Prompt stakeholder/enduser/developer communication, agilely adapt to the new demands/changes.

Repeat the process until the strategic goal is fulfilled
(From WIKI)

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Tool Development Issue: Agile development methodologies

(1) Develop a broad framework and core models as the foundational piece in the primary stage.

(2) Build up more new models through a co-evolutionary process, projects, and end user demand. (3) Provide inclusive linking methods for other models (APIs, OpenMPI, Plugins, and data exchange) (4) Collaborate with interested groups (ADB, WB, IADB, etc).
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