*

TECHNICAL REPORT

A PRACTICAL METHOD OF PREDICTING SEA ICE FORMATION AND GROWTH

OWEN
LLOYD
Division of

S.

LEE

and
S.

SIMPSON

Applied Oceanography Branch

Oceanography

SEPTEMBER 1954

U. S.

NAVY HYDROGRAPHIC OFFICE WASHINGTON, D. C.

ABSTRACT
A technique
sented.
for predicting ice formation and growth is preThe ice potential calculations originally discussed by Zubov and Defant form part of the method, as do the

standard
authors.

heat budget equations developed

In addition,

by various

new formulas are derived for computing ice growth in terms of known or predicted oceanographic and meteorological data. The method is applied to
the problem of predicting the general features of the ice distribution in the Baffin Bay- Davis Strait area for the

season 1952-53.

It is

pointed out that use of this method

must be
polar ice

limited to open-sea areas

is

where winter and not

However, the technique
ice

the dominating feature.

features of such areas several months

has important applications to estimating the general in advance.

FOREWORD

The increasing importance of defense installations in northern areas has increased greatly the responsibilities of the U. S. Navy in supplying bases in Arctic waters, where sea ice is often an operating obstacle. The Hydrographic Office is charged with the responsibility of developing and testing techniques for observing and forecasting sea ice conditions. Standardized techniques for observing, charting, and reporting sea ice are now in operational use by the Navy, as described in publications issued by the Hydrographic Office. Heretofore, techniques for forecasting the formation, growth, and movement of sea ice have not been published by this Office. This publication describes a method of long-range forecasting of ice formation and growth. Since this technique is still in the developmental stage, the Hydrographic Office welcomes comments as to its operational value.

//.

yCaptain, U c

B. COCHRAN S.

Navy

Hydrographer

iii

DISTRIBUTION LIST

CNO (Op-03, 03D3, 31, 316, 32, 33, 332, 04, 05, 533, 55) BUAER (2) BUSHIPS (2) BUDOCKS (2) ONR (Code 100, 102, 410, 416, 420, 430, 464, 466) NOL (2) NEL (2)

NRL (2) CGMOPDEVFOR

CCMSTS (2)

(2)

CODTMB (2) ARCWA SUPNAVACAD (2) NAVWARCOL (2) NAVPOSTGRADSCOL, Monterey (2) COMDT COGARD (IIP) (2) USC&GS (2) CG USAF (AFOOP) CGAWS (2) CGNEAC (2) USAF CAMBRSCHLAB (2) USWB (2)
CIA (2)

BEB (2) SIPRE (2) ASTIA (2) ARTRANSCORP CE (2) INTLHYDROBU, Monaco (2) ARCRSCHLAB, COL, Alaska ARCINSTNA (2) WHOI (2) SIO (2) UNIV WASH (2) TEXAS AM (2) CBI (2)

iv

CONTENTS
Page

Foreword

iii

Distribution List
Figures
Tables
A.
B.
C.

iv

v
vi
1 1
5

Introduction
The Ice Potential of a Water Column

Method of Computing Date of Ice Formation

Method of Computing Ice Growth
Use of the Ice Growth Tables in Forecasting

D.

E.
F.

10

Baffin Bay-Davis Strait Long-Range Ice Forecast for Season 1952-53

13

Conclusions

_ 13
27

Bibliography

FIGURES
1. 2.

Oceanographic Plot for Station #37

Ice-Potential Curve for Station #37
.

4
6

3.
4.

Ice-Growth Forecast for Station #37.

12

Forecasted and Observed Ice Boundaries in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait for the Season 1952-53

TABLES
Page
1.

Oceanographic Data for Station #37

<

2.
3o

Ice Potential Calculations for Station #37

<>

15

Degree-days of Frost Associated with Given Ice Thickness cm., o. and Heat Losses for Snow Cover =

oo...

o.ol6
. . .

4.

Degree-days of Frost Associated with Given Ice Thickness . . . . . . and Heat Losses for Snow Cover = 25 cm. . Degree-days of Frost Associated with Given Ice Thickness and Heat Losses for Snow Cover = 5<>0 cm, Degree-days of Frost Associated with Given Ice Thickness and Heat Losses for Snow Cover = 7<>5 cm. . . .

1?

...........
.......

18

19

7.

Degree-days of Frost Associated with Given Ice Thickness and Heat Losses for Snow Cover = 10 cm

..... ......

20

8.

Degree-days of Frost Associated with Given Ice Thickness and Heat Losses for Snow Cover = 15 cm. Degree-days of Frost Associated with Given Ice Thickness and Heat Losses for Snow Cover = 20 cm.
Degree-days of Frost Associated with Given Ice Thickness and Heat Losses for Snow Cover = 30 cm.

....... ....
...... ....
o

21

9.

22

10.

..........
......
.

23

11.

Degree-days of Frost Associated with Given Ice Thickness . . and Heat Losses for Snow Cover = 40 cm.

24

12.

Degree-days of Frost Associated with Given Ice Thickness . . and Heat Losses for Snow Cover = 50 cm.
Degree-days of Frost for Differing Heat Loss and Ice
Thickness (QTlj)
2ki
o
o
,

........
.
. .

25

13.

26

A.

INTRODUCTION

The expanding program of ice observation and forecasting at the Hydrographic Office has emphasized the desirability of long-range ice forecasting. There are many phases of the ice program for which long range forecasts giving advance estimates of ice conditions of as much as 150 days are required. This paper deals with long-range forecasting of ice thickness in open seas whose salinity and density remain relatively constant, such as Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea.
An operational method of forecasting for a long period must be easy to use, require a minimum number of involved calculations, and yield forecasts of reasonable accuracy. Most formulas previously developed have been complicated expressions which are not suited for operational use. In developing the following method, the goal has been to perfect a technique from which quantitative results can be derived with a minimum of computation and observation.
B.

THE ICE POTENTIAL OF A WATER COLUMN

The severity of an ice season depends, among other things, upon the amount of thermal energy stored in the water mass and upon the rate at which convective mixing takes place. It is necessary to select a model of convective mixing which will explain the variation in the thermohaline conditions caused by heat removal and ice accretion. The method proposed by Defant (1949) and by Zubov (1938) of computing the ice potential and potential heat loss has been adopted as a basis for the present forecasting technique.
Before a forecast can be made, an analysis of the properties that inhibit ice formation and growth must be perforated. Oceanographic measurements within the area in question must be secured in order to obtain information about salinity and thermal energy stored within the water mass. Unnecessary computation can be avoided by making the measurements at a time after the heat flux reverses, when thermal energy is being continually removed from the water. Otherwise the amount of heat which was added to the water column prior to the reversal of the heat flux would have to be computed before the method of Defant and Zubov could be utilized.

Establishing the ice potential of a given water column requires only the temperature and salinity at N levels within the column. The column is divided into (N-l)jLayers and the mean temperature (T n ), salinity (S n ), and density (crn ), are computed for each layer. The mixing model, as defined by the method of Defant and Zubov is constructed by finding the rrvjan temperature and salinity of the surface and second layers, i.e.,

hlh

= i,2

hJ-h

= T lf2

The column is then said to be partially mixed down to the second level. Complete mising is achieved by cooling the partially mixed column until its density, <r lt 2 , equals that of the original second layer, <r 2 . This mixing may be accomplished merely by changing the temperature of the partially mixed column, provided the water is not cooled below its freezing point. If the temperature change necessary for completely mixing the column requires a temperature below the freezing point, ice will form and the salinity of the remaining water in the column will be increased. The mixing process is carried out layer by layer until the potential heat loss is greater than the possible heat loss for a given ice
season.

For convenience the expressions "partially mixed" and "completely mixed" have been used in connection with the ice potential computations. Two layers of water are termed "partially mixed" when the mixed column is defined completely by the means of the temperatures and salinities of the two original layers (i.e., no heat loss is involved). A "partially mixed" layer becomes "completely mixed" when the density of the partially mixed layer equals that of the original lower layer, with the density of the original lower layer remaining fixed throughout the process. In this latter case a heat loss is necessary, provided that the density distribution is stable. Temperature and salinity changes which result from this mixing model can be easily read from a T-S nomograph, or can be computed by use of standard hydrographic tables, (H.O. Pub. No. 615)
Complete mixing can be accomplished only by releasing o gram calories of sensible heat from the water column one square cm in cross section. Quantitatively, <W } = c p hAT where c is the specific heat of sea
n

water P w is the density of sea water, h is the depth to which complete mixing reaches (or volume of h aa?) r and AT W is the amount of heat lost in changing the partially mixed column to a completely mixed column. When it is necessary to change the salinity of the column in order to achieve complete mixing, latent heat is involved in the process as well as sensible heat. Since a known percentage of the salt is frozen out of the ice, it is possible to write an expression for the latent heat as a function of the salinity change. Consequently, the ice accretion corresponding to a given salinity change can be expressed mathematically. As written by Defant, the ice thickness is given by

has
fic /

w bS

(i)

where S is the salinity of the partially mixed column and b is the percentage of the salts frozen out of the ice. The latent heat can now be evaluated from the well-known formula q^ (Z) K (Z), where K is the latent heat of fusion, which decreases with increasing salinity of the ice. The total potential latent heat is given by

qdz =

Q,(h)

2)

Aa the mixing model is developed, each layer will .yield a certain amount of potential heat loss, q^, and eventually, when the temperatures are low and the densities are high, each layer will yield a certain masa of potential ice ( ) associated with convective mixing down through the corresponding layer. Thus it is possible to construct the very useful "potential curve" (Figure 2) from corresponding

&Z=l,(h)
I

and

Q T (h)=Q T (h)-Q

wh ere

V V
/

'

(3)

The potential curve is plotted, QT starting from zero within the layer where ice first appears. The remainder of the %% Q , which is lost before ice is formed, determines the date of ice formation. The reason for taking QT as zero at this point becomes evident when one considers the lower limits of the integrals in equation (13). Obviously some question arises as to the exact quantity of heat that has been removed at the There is, of course, some error introduced, time ice is first formed. but it is not large as long as the water temperatures are near the freezing point and the water column is divided into layers of sufficiently small depth, for example five to ten meters. Recent work on the same type of model as Defant's has yielded exact values of the 0^. which must be removed before ice is formed, thus determining the proper point to start accumulating the Qjp for the potential curve (Brown, 1954)
In order to illustrate the computation of the ice potential and the drawing of the potential curve, a typical oceanographlc station Station 37, at 66 N, 58 W, was occupied is used as an illustratioa. on 3 October 1952. A ploc, of the oceanographlc variables at this station is given in Figure 1, and the complete numerical data are shown in Table 1.

TABLE 1 Oceanographic Data for Station #37 (66N, 58W), 3 October 1952
Depth
m.

Tempe rature
L.

Salinity

%o
32.37 32.36 32.39 32.47 32.78 33.08 33.69 33.69 34.04 34.21 34.34 34.52

Density Anomaly (t) gm/liter

10 20 30
50 75 99

148 197 296

394

0.56 0.10 0.61 0.73 -0.41 -1.65 -1.61 -2.13 -0.52 1.52 0.08 -1.71

25.98 26,00 25.99 26.05 26.36 26.64 27.13 27.14 27.38 27.40 27.59 27.81

o 25.00

A D

31.00 3

26.00 32.00
~l
-1
I

27.00

33.00
3

28.00 34.00
8 9
10
II

29(
35.
13

12

14

15

16

20

40
60
80

100

120

140

_ <n
cc

160

F
S ~
1Q.

!80

LJ

200
220

Ul

240
260

280

300
320

340
360

380

400
FIG.

a T EMPE ?ATUF ECO

ENSIT /(""t)

'

SALI VJITYC

Ui
1952.

OCEANOGRAPHIC PLOT FOR STATION

NO. 37,

66N 58W, 3 OCTOBER

From these data the ice potential has been calculated by the method of Defant and the results shown in Table 2A, Finally, the ic potential curve for Station 37 is shown in Figure 2 It will be noted that the ice potential curve is by no means a straight line or a smooth curve. In fact, for this station, the heat loss necessary to form a given amount of ice varies considerably. For this reason, the actual forecasting for this station is difficult, for a small additional heat loss In at about 2 kg. cal. causes the formation of a large amount of ice. this respect the example shown is not typical of may stations where the ice potential curve is quite regular and smooth j however., it is included to illustrate the kind of difficulties encountered in practice. In addition, the curve is atypical because Q , the heat loss necessary to bring about formation of ice was found exactly at 25 meters when the temperature of the completely mixed layer (1-4, Table 2B) first dropped to -1.8 C. In general, Q cannot be so easily determined.
C*

METHOD OF COMPUTING DATE OF ICE FORMATION

There are two acceptable methods of computing the date of ice formation. Since the amount of heat that must be lost before ice is formed is known from the ice potential computations, it is only necessary to compute the time required to lose this heat. One method is to make actual observations of the heat loss per day per square cm, and thus to find the mean heat loss which is representative of a given area. The other method is to compute the total heat loss by consideration of the climatological data, the sun's altitude, and oceanographic data. For this purpose the only known formulas are those of Jacobs (1942), which yield rates of heat loss of the right order of magnitude in the Arctic, although they were specifically derived for middle latitudes.
Jacobs' formulas for computing heat losses aret

Q ab

.025

a [.29 +.71 (!-__)]

Qb U- .0083c}]

ft- r)t,t

in

minutes

(4)

Qb= .94
Qe
where Q
ab
.

[eff.

in

minutes

(5)

145.4 w(e w

-e a

)|

j+

#01

fTw- Jkllt * "w @oiJ

in

days,

6)

= total Incoming radiation- in gm, cal/cm,

Q.

q
cc

~ - total back radiation in gra. cal/cm. ? - total heat loss due to evaporation in gm, cal/cn

a mean altitude of the sun in degress,

mean cloud amount in percent, mean wind velocity in knots,

uu
ICE THICKNESS IS PLOTTED AGAINST HEAT LOSS AFTER ICE FORMATION. DEPTHS OF CONVECTION ARE INDICATED BESIDE EACH POINT (TABLE 2
)

150

OlOOm

075 m

J 070m
~r
065m

r
no
'

i55m

BO 70 50 m 50

d>45m

40 30
20
10

yv0ni

rreo m

^5m
I

5
IN

6
(Q T -Q )=

iEAT
FIG.

LOSS AFTER

ICE

FORMATION

KILOGRAM CALORIES
37.

QT

ICE-POTENTIAL CURVE FOR STATION NUMBER

6

of the water in inches Hg 0i of the air in inches Hg,, the water in degrees F, the air in degrees F. eff. Qb (effective back radiation) difference between temperature radiation of the sea surface and long-wave radiation from the atmosphere, t time in units designated above,, and r ~ fractional part of the incoming radiation reflected from the sea surface.
,

&W - vapor pressure e a - vapor pressure T w = temperature of T a <s temperature of

The ice potential computations determine the amount of sensible heat which must be removed from the water column prior to the initial formation of ice. For example, let this value be Q. Then setting Q Qfc ~ QQ - Qat, p and solving for t gives the number of days between the time that the oceanwere made and the time ice will form. ographic measurements
D.

METHOD OF COMPUTING ICE GROWTH

time ice radiation,

From the time oceanographic observations are made until the forms, it is assumed that the heat exchange results from incoming back radiation, and evaporation. After ice forms, the processes heat is removed from the water column are altered considerably.

by which

Any heat that is then removed from the water must be conducted through the solid layer of ice above it. Thus, the rate of further heat loss is determined by the temperature gradient through ice and snow. Hence, assuming steadystate conditions for finite increments of time,

cKQt+QJ
dt
K
i

AT,
"

AT
k
s

(^

where,

Qp is the amount of sensible heat loss (in kg, cal.), Ql is the amount of latent heat loss (in kgo cal,),

k l is the heat conductivity coefficient of sea ice, k s is the heat conductivity coefficient of snow, A Tjl i s the temperature difference between the upper surface of the ice and freezing point of sea water (in C), A T s is the temperature difference between the surface of the snow and the surface of the ice (in C), ll is the thicknesr of the ice in om s l s is the thickness of the snow in cm, and l s is the mean snow cover over a finite period of time*,
Since AT =aTj +AT 3 , where A T is the temperature difference between the freezing point of sea water (taken at -1>8 C.) and the snow surface temperature, and from (7)

AT.V1.

kiln
then

AT = AT,U+T-rf k,l,J
I

AT,

AT 1~

(9)

Mi

Then

(7) becomes:

d(Q + Q ) T l
1

k
I

AT

(10)

jj^
(

Substituting

Q|=/o-Kl.

into

10 )

^o

denotes ice density)

p,ku^L _J^L_ dt
s
'

dt

(11)

l.hSJk]

^K { +
l

^}

1
?

dl +
'

^}

1
S

dQ T ==k ATdf
J

(12)

/l|(h)

P]

k[ '^(zjdiiiz)^
'o s

A Kk,

r 'i di,(z)+ r s
"'0
"'O

(h)

r Q T (h)

i,(z)dQ T (z) +

iiK
s

r
^0

T
i s

dQ T (z)=k r
r

Mdt

(13)

"'t,,

^l^(h)/^l sl.(h) +
*-

r
0

,Qjh) T
l
1

(Z)dQ T (Z) +

L 4 l s Q T (h) = k
S

et
i

/
</f

(TF -T)dt.( U)

The right-hand expression in equation 14 is usually denoted by the title "degree-days of frost;" A degree-day of frost la defined as a day with a mean temperature 1-degree Centigrade below the freezing point of sea water. While the freezing temperature of sea water varies with salinity, it is here assumed to be -1.8C. A degree-day of frost is then 1 day with a mean temperature of -2.8C. Degree-days of frost usually are accumulated for forecasting over periods of 15 or 30 days* By giving the following values to some of the terms in equation 14*

- 0.9
gm
JfcCfii

K = .080

ki , .389 1
ks ~

cm C day
K

062 ot" d

Cal

>

cm C day*

the formula can be used directly to forecast the ice in terms of degreedays of frost
,

f
T

<

T)dt,

Thus, for a given value of 1^ and Qip. A given 1^ and from the potential curve. and by evaluating the area limits for the expression

ls all terms in the equation are known except likewise the corresponding QT , can be selected By substituting 1^ and Q^ into equation (14) under the potential curve between the proper

>Q (h)

l[(Z)dQT (Z)
the number of degree-days of frost required to form can be computed.
1.

centimeters of ice

To eliminate the necessity of computation, the end results of the derivation have been presented in the form of tables (Tables 3-12). In addition the integral
-Q T (h)
f

l[(Z)dQ T (Z)

had to be evaluated by approximation methods. It was found from the majority of potential curves that the integral could be approximated as

~2~ QT(n).

The error Introduced was found to be small unless the water temperature was unusually high, and in most cases ice will not form under such conditions. Since the potential curve 1^(Qt) must always be plotted, it Is readily apparent when the above approximation is invalid; in this situation the formula can be used. In order to facilitate substitution of the actual integral for the approximation, an auxiliary table (Table 13) is included whicn gives the degree-days of frost associated with various values of 1^ and Op. If the potential curve is very Irregular, Table 13 is entered, and by comparison with the degree-day figure computed from an average 1^, one can determine the amount of error introduced into the total* Most frequently this will be found to be small, since the potential term is only one of four separate factors contributing to the total $ however, the actual value can be added or subtracted and a more accurate figure secured.
The form of equation 14 which was used in the tables is

The degree-days of frost for fixed 1 8 0, 2*5, 5, 7.5, 10, 15, 20, 30, The concept of degree-days 40, and 50 cm. are given in Tables 3 to 12. has an advantage over one of calendar days because of its versatility as far as forecasting is concerned. An ice forecast in days is difficult because It requires a forecast of air temperatures as well as ice growth, while the degree-day forecast permits ice growth forecasts which fit all conceivable temperature variations.
E.

USE OF THE ICE GROWTH TABLES IN FORECASTING

Forecasting the ice growth in a given area requires the following informations (1) oceanographic data taken after the water mass begins to cool and prior to ice formation, (2) the date of Ice formation, and (3) an expression relating ice growth to degree-days of frost for the given area. With this information the forecaster can. then proceed to make a forecast for the entire season. The procedure is as follows? (1) the ico potential of each oceanographic station is calculated and the ice potential curve (example, Figure 2) is drawn; (2) from available meteorological and oceanographic data, the date of ice formation is determined; and (3) the forecast is made in terms of degree-days of frost.
Since the calculation of the ice potential, the date of first ice formation, and the ice potential curve have been previously explained, the remaining discussion will describe the preparation of an actual forecast. As before., Station #37 is used as an example. The ice potential curve for this station is given in Figure 2. In order to draw the ice forecast curves for this station it is necessary to read the ice thickness figures corresponding to integral values of Qp from the Ice potential curve. The degree-days of frost corresponding to each combi-

10

read from each of the tables 3 to 12. A lj. and Q T values are plot of ice thickness vs degree-days of frost is made from each set of values obtained from the graphs, and a smooth curve is drawn for each value of snow depth (l g ). An example of a completed forecast is given in Figure 3. In Figure 3,0= 1 corresponds to an ice thickness of 27 cm. and Qp a 2 to an ice thickness of 72 cm. on the ice potential curve of Figure 2. To convert the completed forecast into a time forecast the meteorologist must provide temperature and snow depth forecasts in order to secure an ice thickness forecast of 120 to 150 days for this station.

nation of

Now let us suppose that the date of first ice formation at Station #37 is 12 November and that the meteorologist provides a forecast, including the following data for the succeeding months

, p Period
.

Mean Temperature
^ 0c)

Degree-Dy
of Frost

Snow Depth (cm j

12 - 15 Nov. 16 - 30 Nov. Dec. 16 - 31 Dec. Jan. 16 - 31 Jan.

1-15 1-15

-5.8 -4.8 -8.8 -7.8 -9.8 -18.8

16 45 105 96

120 272

2.5 2,5 7.5 7.5

The ice thickness for any given date may be found from the above data and the forecast curve.
During the period when the snow depth is will be along the upper curve on Figure 3} on day with no snow, the total of degree-days of and the ice thickness will be 17 cm. (point A
zero, the growth of ice

30 November, the final frost is 16 4- 45 or 61 on Figure 3).

During the month of December the ice grows under a snow depth of 2.5 cm. from a starting point of 17 cm. This point is marked A*. During December a total of 105 plus 96 or 201 degree-days of frost is counted^ so that it is necessary to follow the curve l g = 2 5 for 201 degree-days of frost beyond point A , or to point B. At point B, reached 31 December the ice thickness will be 35 cm.
1

Similarly, during January the ice grows uhder a snow depth of 7.5
cm. for 120 plus 272 or 392 degree-days beyond the point B 1 corresponding to an ice thickness of 35 cm. On 31 January the point G is reached, and the ice thickness will be 53 cm. This constitutes an operational forecast, as the user of the forecast can determine the ice thickness on any day between 12 November and 31 January by counting the number of degreedays of frost and noting the snow depth applicable to the situation,,

11

!V

|_ UJ 4.

o
>-

U.

UJ K U.

< n
I

O
I
l-

UJ oc

hi

liJ

o no Q LU o
to

(ujo)

SS3NX0IH1 301

12

P.

BAFFIN BAY-DAVIS STRAIT LONG-RANGE ICE FORECAST FOR SEASON 1952-53.

During early autumn, 1952, oceanographic obse nations were taken at the locations shown on Figure 4 The method explained previously was employed to forecast the ice formation and growth of these locations. The dates of ice formation were computed and are shown beside each station. Since the thermohaline structure at some of the stations was such that no ice would be formed, it was possible to delineate the theoretical extreme ice boundary shoivn as a heavy line in Figure 4 This boundary agrees very well with the boundary which was actually observed in lat March and early April 1953* (shown as a dashed line in Figure 4) except for the occurrence of ice south of Stations 39 and 40. It is possible that ice which was observed at these two stations was not formed there, but had drifted from nearby areas of ice formation,, The dispersion of ice near the observed boundary in this area indicates that the ice actually was formed outside the area.
CONCLUSIONS
The methods of Zubov and Defant for ice potential calculation have proved in practice to give reasonable answers for open seas and for inshore areas where local variations in the physical properties of the water are not large. In harbors and areas where runoff is important, changes in salinity and density are so rapid that it is difficult to attach a meaning to an average value of these parameters. Hence any ice potential calculation based on one or a few observations in a harbor may give a potential ice growth which is unreasonably high or low for a
single season.

The forecast of ice growth based on the ice potential can be used only during tho period when ice thickness is increasing,. No theory has been included which accounts for decreasing ice thicknesses during the breakup period. Indeed, no mathematical theory has yet been developed. for the breakup of ice.

Many refinements of the method presented in this paper are possible. Some of them are discussed in a paper by Brown (1954). The method described here was used to forecast during the 1952-53 ice seasonj the forecast proved to be satisfactory. The most 'important advancement discussed in this report is the use of the ice potential as a basis for forecasting ice growth.

13

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

FIG.

4.

FORECASTED AND OBSERVED ICE BOUNDARIES DAVIS STRAIT FOR THE SEASON 1952-1953
14

IN

BAFFIN BAY AND

TABLE 2 ICE POTENTIAL CALCULATIONS FOR STATION #37 (66N,58"W), 3 OCTOBER 1952

Depth Meters

TC
.56 .10 .61 .67 .73 .15

S o

Layer
No.

Depth (Meters)

Mean Values

TC
.54 .70

%o
25.99 26.00 26.02 26.12 26.28 26.40 26.45 26.51 26.59 26.70 26.82 26.93 27.02 27.10

10
15

20 25 30 35 40 45
50 55

-.41 -.86 -1.18 -1.50 -1.65

-1.65 -1.62 -1.62

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

150 200 300

4.00

-1.61 -1.61 -1.72 -1.80 -1.80 -1.80 -1.80 -0.51 1.50 0.06 -1.75

32.38 32.36 32.39 32.41 32.47 32.62 32.78 32.86 32.94 33.01 33.08 33.20 33.36 33.50 33.60 33.69 33.69 33.69 33.69 33.69 33.70 34.06 34.21 34.35 34.53

25.98 26.00 25.99 26.00

26.05 26.20 26.36 26.43 26.48 26.54 26.64 26.76 26.88 26.98 27.07 27.13 27.14 27.14 27.14 27.14 27.14 27.38 27. 40 27.60 27.82

0-10
10-15 15-20 20-25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 60-65 65-70 70-75 75-80 80-85 85-90 90-95 95-100 100-150 150-200 200-300 300-400

.44 -.13 -.64

-1.02 -1.34 -1.58 -1.65 -1.64 -1.62 -1.62 -1.61 -1.66 -1.76 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.16 .50 .78 -.84

32.38 32.40 32.44 32.54 32.70 3282 32.90 32.98 33.04 33.14 33.28 33.43 33.55 33.64 33.69 33.69 33.69 33.69 33.70 33.88 34.14 34.28 34.44

27.14
27.14

27.14 27.14 27.14

27.26 27.39 27.50 27.71

TABLE 2B

j=
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Layer
1-2 1-3

<U

Before Mixing T "C S / 00

.46 .51 .33

After Mixi ng
T C 26.00 26.02 26.12 26.28 26.40 26.45 26.51 26.59 26.70 26.82 26.93 27.02 27.10 27. L4 27.26 27.39 27.50
.45

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cij

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Ox

15

20
25

1-4
1-5

1-6 1-7 1-8 1-9 1-10 1-11 1-12

1-13

10 35 40
45 50 55

60
65

70
75

1-14 1-19 1-20 1-21 1-22

100 150 200 300

-1.52 -1.63 -1.70 -1.75 -1.78 -1.79 -1.79 -1.79 -].79 -1.79 -1.79 -1.59 -1.22 -.94

32.39 32.40 32.44 32.48 32.72 32.80 32.87 32.94 33.02 33.16 33.31 33. V+ 33.55 33.53 33.76 33.93 34.11

.30

-1.80 -1.80 -1.80 -1.80 -1.80 -1.80 -1.80 -1.80 -1.80 -1.80 -1.80 -1.80 -1.80 -1.80 -1.80

32.39 32.40 32.44 32.70 32.79 32.86 32.93 33.01 33.15 33.30 33.43 33.54 33.65 33.70 33.86 34.02
14.15

-.01
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4.79
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5.18 5.94 6.48 6.84

7.04
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7.13
7.23

-.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.01 -.21 -.58 -.86

.06
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2.83 10.44 23.22

7.29 7.35 7.42 7 .'51 10.34 20.78 44.00

.14 .12 .10 .10 .17 .10 .09 .04

1.30 38.6 1.66 47.6 1.86 11.7 59.3 1.95 23.8 83.1 2.00 27.7 110.8 2,05 25.6 136.4 2.11 23.0 159.4 2.17 24.5 183.9 2.24 55.4 239.3 2.33 48.7 288.0 5.16 58.2 346.2 15.60 38.7 384.9 38.32

22.4 8.2 8.0 9.0

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BIBLIOGRAPHY

BROWN, A. L. An analytical method of ice potential calculation. Washington. U. . Hydrographic Office, Technical Report jjS.

September

1954-*

13p.

DEFANT, A. Konvektion und Eisbereitschaft in polaren Schelfmeeren (Convection and ice formation in polar shelf seas), Geoerafiska Annaler . Arg. 31, pp. 25-35, 1949.
JACOBS, W. C. On the energy exchange between sea and atmosphere, Journal of Marine Research . Vol. 5, pp. 37-66, 1942.
ZUBOV, N. N. Morskie vody i l'dy (Marine water and ice). Gidrometeorologicheskoe Izdatel'stvo, 1938. 451p.

Moskva

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