Climate Change and Ordinary Folk

2 - The Consequences of Localised Climate Change Introduction:

Having taken a look at the general picture of some of the consequences of climate change and also determined who it is who is the genuine climate change migrant or more specifically the displaced people from climate change, there is a need to look at some of the politics and some of the areas that are most likely to be affected by these changes. First there is a need to look at the overall picture of the Earth and what the general environment probabilities are. Generally, it is predicted that the global temperatures will rise and some scientists state that these could be by up to 8o Celsius (many decades ahead) and if so, many parts of the world are going to rapidly dry and dry so much that little flora or fauna will be able to survive and the term used for this is desertification and the map below from the US Department of Agriculture gives a very good overall picture of the probabilities. Map 1:

(Map 1 - Part of a desertification map produced by the US Department of Agriculture - 2007)

Map 1 clearly shows the areas (shown on the legend in yellow, orange and red) where there is a greater risk of desertification adding to the areas (shown as grey) where it is already very dry and thus, it can be seen that large proportions of Africa, Australia, the Arab States, the eastern coast of the USA and a broad belt of central Asia will be affected. Europe other than the Iberian Peninsula will not be affected too much, although there are sites where some of the problems will be found. India, with its very large population will find the production of basic food crops very difficult to maintain and this is of great concern. In South East Asia it is generally accepted that there will be very little desertification in the area that comprises of many island states, although there are many localised areas in South East Asia that already are suffering the consequences of climate changes and although these have little significance on a global scale they are certainly having a dramatic affect locally.
- Many more parts of the world will become hostile environments for human habitation and food production -

Given that these areas at risk have existing populations, it is understandable to suppose that these populations will not be able to stay fully productive in their home areas and many will become displaced people, seeking environmentally sustainable places to resettle. The map below (map 2) from the US Department of Agriculture shows where the majority of the global population is living and this shows very high to moderate population spreads through the China, India, Japan and several hot spots in South East Asia.

2 - The Consequences of localised Climate Change

It is interesting to note that in July 2011 a group of indigenous Australians stated that the coastal area of their ancestral homeland is subject to erosion because of higher sea levels and they claim that they will be climate change refugees, whereas their homeland will be lost due to rising seawater and thus, they will be climate change displace people and should be subject to official support to relocate. As they are indigenous people and it is their ancestral homeland that will be lost; it may be harder to resettle these folk in an environment that is suitable.
Map 2:

(Map 2 Human population impact map produced by the US Department of Agriculture - 2007)

There are other places where populations are high and when a direct comparison is made with the likely areas of desertification; it shows that in future decades there will be stress points and this is emphasised by the human population density map (map 3) from the US Department of Agriculture that shows where the majority of the global population is resident; known as population density, being the number of people per square kilometre. Map 3:

(Map 3 Human population density map produced by the US Department of Agriculture - 2007)

Map 3 again highlights India, China, South-East Asia as having the highest populations, but now it can be seen how densely the populations of Europe and both north and South America; although these show concentrated populations in mostly coastal areas.
2

2 - The Consequences of localised Climate Change

As a result of comparing maps 1 through 5, it can be seen that some parts of the world are going to struggle to produce sufficient basic food crops to feed their own populations, adding to this the fact that many of these parts of the world will have sufficient water, either for human consumption or irrigation. Those countries with mineral deposits will be able to sustain its populations needs for food though prices will be higher. These maps also show that migration away from affected areas is bound to happen and with internal migrants the places of resettlement are certain to be the urban areas. In Africa, it would appear that many parts of central Africa might be ideal but these are not as suitable as it may seem to be at first glance. Central Africa contains The Democratic Republic of Congo and many other countries that are hostile to human habitation as parts are dense forest and also full of armed conflict areas, where commercial food production is very difficult at best.
Map 4:

(Map 4 Soil temperature map produced by the US Department of Agriculture - 2007)

The stresses on various regions of the world to produce basic foods and water are emphasised by map 5 showing the worlds water scarcity. Although map 5 shows areas of little or no water scarcity this does not mean that everyone has easy access to water, as distribution systems in many places are very poor and although it may be generally thought that it would make common sense for communities to be based near to water sources, this is not so everywhere and wastage is high. There are some communities that not only have to collect what rainwater is available but have to collect water from one or two kilometres away. Map 5 shows that central Africa is in an economic water scarcity area and this may seem to be somewhat strange considering this area includes The Democratic Republic of Congo where there is very high rainfall that feeds several rivers and again it shows that the amount of rainfall does not mean that everyone has easy access to water, thus the economics of distribution are high. Some of the Arabian nations; shown in the physical water scarcity area, process seawater to remove the salt so that it is usable for both household and agricultural use. However, desalination of seawater is an expensive process and technology needs to be advanced in order to reduce the costs of this essential service. It has been stated by some climate change scientists that unless there is a 40% increase in potable water production by 2050 there are going to be serious consequences for humanity and whether or not this is as stated, the human population needs to take immediate action to not only harvest potable water better but also in the utilisation of this finite resource.
- Wasting potable water is no longer a behaviour that is acceptable 3

2 - The Consequences of localised Climate Change Map 5:

(Map 5 Water scarcity map produced based on mapping by the US Department of Agriculture)

Although both public and private water authorities do the best they can, at the present time, by recycling waste water many times over, there is a limit to how much and how quickly this processing can be done. However, there needs to be a greater increase in investment in water processing and distribution by these companies in order to be able to expand and increase the amount of water available; but these companies would need to raise the price of their distribution services to the public and industry and few wish to pay even higher water charges. There are vast underground water reserves in the porous rocks etc, but with changing climate in some areas, these water sources are slowly being depleted due to faster evaporation of surface water and wastage, often due to so much land being covered by concrete and other hard surfaces. In developing countries there is a great demand for water for irrigation and it is often the case that this water is taken from natural resources underground, rather than communities constructing reservoirs to store water for this purpose. Therefore, agricultural food and non-food production systems are wasting large amounts of underground water with a significant percentage of which evaporates in the hot dry seasons.
Map 6:

(Map 6 World climate map produced by theodra.com/maps) 4

2 - The Consequences of localised Climate Change

Map 6 shows the worlds climates from ice through to desert, produced by Theodora.com/maps and makes an ideal comparison for all of the previous maps. There is now enough visual depiction to allow anyone to compare climates, water scarcity, population distribution and temperatures. All of these show that there will be problems with basic food production and the production and distribution of potable and irrigation water. All of the maps above are included for the visual effect of showing the worlds population spread and density, together with the projected deforestation map, the soil temperature map and the water scarcity map. Any comparison of these visual representations will show that the worlds population must [a] take more responsibility for harvesting water, [b] take more responsibility in using water sensibly [c], must accept to concentrate human settlement areas away from food production land and [d], must utilise its basic food resources much better than it has done for many generations.

The overall situation:

From a study of the foregoing maps it can be seen that parts of the world are very hot and arid, parts of the world are very hot and humid, parts of the world are very cold and arid, with the majority of the habitable land in the northern hemisphere (above the equator) and most of this concentrated above the Tropic of Cancer, which contains the Mediterranean area; the large land masses of North America and Europe. This is not to dismiss South America, southern Africa, South-East Asia or Australasia, but to emphasise where the human population density is highest and where also where the majority of the basic foods are grown. As previous events in the Horn of Africa have shown in the past, with droughts, famines and inconsistent rainfall, a study of the maps included in the document show that the ground temperatures are rising, desertification is spreading in the hot arid areas; there has been and will continue to be a serious water shortage and this area will yet again find itself at the mercy of the richer nations to help it through hard times. This diagram shows an area that is rapidly being changed into desert (desertification) by increasing ground temperatures and less rainfall, with the clearly defined existing desert surrounded by an area of Sahel (semi-arid) whereby the vegetation is slowly dying back because of reduced rainfall and higher ground temperatures. This is of great concern, as this slow desertification forces communities to move due to displacement and reduces the amount of flora and fauna; be these natural or introduced by man. These areas are not restricted to national borders and there may have to be some international agreements in order to assure that the communities displaced are allowed to resettle without conflict. It is also worthy of note that there are more areas like these throughout the world and some are very small indeed, although few have any suggestions how many more might occur are where these might be. At risk areas is a topic where consideration should be given to partially resettling the most at risk, although some cross-border support may be needed to achieve the nearest ideal situation. Not only are the original areas in Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia and parts of Kenya likely to experience further problems caused by climate but due to the expanding desertification of this arid area, Uganda, Eritrea, Djibouti and further parts of Kenya and Malawi are now more likely to be included and this is only one area where these changes are occurring. African and other governments have totally failed to make provisions for climate related changes or emergencies; preferring to rely on the richer western nations to freely give the necessary aid and this has caused a regrettable dependency on others. However, the rich western nations have been keen to maintain these dependencies as they provide a means of continuing political and commercial influences. The richer nations now have little choice but to give aid during (and long after) climate related emergencies and also to continue with the development programmes that so many developing
5

2 - The Consequences of localised Climate Change

nations rely on. This is wrong in many cases but not all of the African countries can, at this time afford to be without international help and gradually, some of the recipient nations wish to stop this dependency on foreign money as they know that they cannot be truly independent in their political or physical development into emerging nations. It is also worrying that there is so much competition between the aid and development agencies, as this helps no one. This map (7) of Africa shows Map 7 the areas where in 2011 either political or food related civil conflict is occurring or likely to occur and despite the strong potential for economic development on the African continent the fact of so much conflict will restrict the pace of any potential development in mineral extraction or food production. The central zone of land from Mali through to Somalia contains some of the driest parts of the continent where extended droughts can be expected and the Sahel expansion to cause greater desertification. Despite its mineral and other riches, the Democratic Republic of Congo is short of food and traders scour Zambia and Tanzania in order to provide some of the basics. That Malawi has recently joined the conflict club has surprised many, but given the shortages in the northern areas of the country and some evidence of growing political unrest nationwide together with some racial tension between the north and south and this usually peaceful nation needs close observation. With South Africa having to accept many of the civil conflict migrants from Zimbabwe and economic migrants from other areas, the outbreaks of food shortage conflicts can only increase and the political / tribal conflicts only add to the problem.
- Too many countries with possible climate emergencies rely on foreign help but do not care to make provision for possible emergencies themselves they are willingly dependent -

Developing countries are very happy to do business with foreign nations and individual companies, but no longer are prepared to tolerate the political arm twisting that goes with aid support and this is why China has been so successful in Africa and other areas. Incidental to this is that Chinas involvement in business with developing countries is slowly giving China a significant percentage of mineral resources, not only to build their home economy but also to control these resources and sell to the richer western nations and industries, thus and to some extent having the richer nations also partially dependent on the Chinese economy. The Horn of Africa is not the only place in the world where similar events may occur and although the African continent contains a number of these, Asia, southern Europe, the Americas and other places will see similar if less dramatic incidences. Looking at the maps it could be assumed that south east Asia is an area less likely to experience the magnitude of the events that may happen in the Horn of Africa and yet, there are places in South-East Asia where the symptoms are equally dire and where there are large populations having to live off land that cannot supply enough to sustain the populations and thus, heavily dependent on either external aid or trading; assuming that what they have to trade is what is required by the rest of the world.
6

2 - The Consequences of localised Climate Change

Fresh drinking water is at a premium in many places and the only water that many people now trust, comes in bottles, creating a multi-billion dollar industry and this is likely to increase many fold as marginal water sources decline. Some have stated that the next war could be over water rights and there is always the possibility of this. Food: There is growing concern about food being used in ordinary commodity trading on the international trading markets, where the aim is to produce profit only and it is partly this trading that is diving up the prices in local markets. By creating theoretical shortages of basic foods the commodity traders profit greatly and although there may be actual shortages in some food stuffs the traders hold back, awaiting a shortage to cause a price rise. The traders are taking advantage of seasonal variations throughout the world climate and taking advantage also of some countries not achieving targets because of drought or prolonged rain storms, which affect crop yields.
- With approximately 9 to 10 billion people to feed by 2050, space must be found to produce more food and also to develop sustainable ways to grow it -

Although there are still vast tracts of land where food crops can be grown; such as Africa, South America, Canada and Russia, improved methods of production and processing must be found and ways in which to ensure that these crops have sufficient and sustainable water. There is also the constant competition for basic grains and pulses between to human and livestock food processors and this competition is exacerbated by the increasing demand for meat products by the new middle classes of Asia and South America. This is where the production of basic foods has now entered the political arena, not just because basic foods are becoming harder to source, but because some countries that cannot produce enough food for self-sufficiency, have been buying up or leasing vast tracts of land in foreign countries in order to produce the basic foods to transport back to an ever hungry national population. Consider the large areas of land that some Arab states, China and Koreas have taken over in Africa, subtly ignoring the local politics and often harsh regimes that ignore international human rights issues. Zimbabwe, once the food basket of central Africa, has large areas of highly productive land that at this time is wasted due to conflict, under use or mismanagement. Consider the political problems of South Africa where it is now problematical for certain people to finance and manage large industrial farms that could with Zimbabwe feed a large percentage of the continents population. Consider also nations such a Zambia, Mozambique, Kenya, Sudan and Tanzania where conflict restricts the development in food production and where much of the natural resources are underutilised and yet, foreign nations that need extra land are taking over these assets, probably detrimentally to the needs of the local people. Whilst some investors are growing table flowers for export, local communities have lost hereditary land rights and now depend upon any employment opportunities offered by the investors; although much of the work is mechanised. There is also the great concern about agricultural land being lost to the ever spreading urban areas. Many are against the use of genetically modified crops for the human food chain, although there are many thousands of hectares of land already in production and genetically modified crops may be part of the solutions to food shortages. Nevertheless, there are many actions that can be taken before there needs to be a reliance on genetically modified crops and some of these are logical solutions, although not enough on their own to solve the problems. Genetically modified food crops may have an important role in two ways. [a], in providing a stop gap whilst natural methods of improving agricultural yields are found and [b], where there is likely to be great food shortage stress, genetically modified food crops could save many people. However, there would remain the problem of once the genetically modified species are in the market they will be hard to remove. Genetically modified food crops could severely reduce the insect and disease damage to yields, although the production of terminal crops is very worrying. Terminal crops produce seed for processing into food, but they do not produce viable fertile seed for reproduction and seed breeders now demand royalties for growing their seeds. Again, profit is the only motive. And this is one area where politics will enter into the daily life of consumers, as the governments will have the difficult choices in making the decisions about basic food availability and prices and from
7

2 - The Consequences of localised Climate Change

where the food will be sourced. Will governments be forced to intervene in controlling basic supplies through the markets or will this be left to private enterprise? There are solutions available and in order to make the best of the potential solutions, a large amount of research and planning needs to be undertaken and this will require global co-operation.
Primary solutions to food production: * Create a world map of land availability. (Soil mapping) * Rehabilitate underused land resources. * Develop and improve integrated crop production systems. * Improve soil moisture retention capability. * Improve irrigation water availability and distribution systems, but reduce wastage. * Develop and improve plant irrigation systems. * Develop and improve basic crop seeds. * Improve availability and distribution of low cost seed. * Reduce fertiliser wastage. * Improve effectiveness of herbicides and pesticides. * Improve and encourage crop residue recycling. * Improve post harvest storage facilities. * Improve farm to market roads. Interestingly, the Stern Revue states that in the year 2000 agricultural production contributed 14% to the greenhouse gas emissions and although this is of concern, the alternative is to return to labour intensive agricultural production and reduce the number of ruminant animals and to the industrialised agricultural producers this would make no sense. The paradox of this is that agricultural output must increase to meet the needs of an expanding global population and this means increasing industrialised agricultural production and yet this cannot be done without adding to the 14% greenhouse gasses. A large majority of the food produced in developing countries is produced by small farmers, using hand tools to work the land, although the methods of clearing land produces large amounts of carbon emissions by burning grasses, scrub and crop residues. In developing countries the quality of the nitrogen fertilisers available is very poor and this leads to great wastage and uneconomic production. The small farmers in developing countries are subsistence farmers living on the edge of marginality and who have to sell their freshly harvested crops to pay off the previous growing seasons debt and then, these same farmers have to buy the basic grains from the processors in order to put food on the table. It would be interesting to know what percentage of the worlds greenhouse gas emissions are produced by the global food processing and distribution systems. (The Stern Revue states: Non-CO2 emissions from agriculture amount to 14% of total GHG emissions. Of

this, fertiliser use and livestock each account for one third of emissions; other sources include rice and manure management. Over half of these emissions are from developing countries. Agricultural practices such as the manner of tillage are also responsible for releasing stores of CO2 from the soil, although there are no global estimates of this effect. Agriculture is also indirectly responsible for emissions from land-use change (agriculture is a key driver of deforestation), industry (in the production of fertiliser), and transport (in the movement of goods). Increasing demand for agricultural products, due to rising population and incomes per head, is expected to lead to continued rises in emissions from this source.)

Man and the Animals:

There are vast tracts of prime land that is not available to human food production and these are the large areas set aside for wild animal sanctuaries or reserves which are mostly in Africa. There is already clear evidence that local farmers are encroaching onto this land, grazing their animals and producing crops and although some governments are setting up buffer zones to protect the wild animals, these are ignored in many areas. Buffer zones around wildlife preservation areas are intended to allow local farmers some access to these areas, whilst keeping strict rules about how far they can go, also allowing restricted access to the wildlife within the buffer zones. It is very easy for the inhabitants of the northern hemisphere to demand that the wildlife reservations be maintained and protected, but the need to grow food, especially in these countries that have the wildlife reserves is a pressing need. One of the side effects of mans encroachment onto these reserves is that the wild animals are now starting to suffer the domesticated livestock diseases and the reverse side of this is
8

2 - The Consequences of localised Climate Change

that the farmers animals are subject to the many problems that the wild animals face. The result of this is that the farmers are demanding compensation for losses incurred. Some of these farmers also lay poisoned bait to kill out the predator animals and birds in order to protect their domesticated animals. As with everything else to do with climate change and predicted shortages, solutions need to be found for the tension between man and wildlife and this needs to be managed.
- The competition between humans and animals for food will continue to grow because of a burgeoning middle class that demands meat products -

One of the longest running arguments of man versus animals is the feed provided for maintaining and fattening domesticated livestock and poultry. The emerging nations now have many more middle class residents and because of improved circumstances, the new middle class is demanding access to better food and in many cases this means a greater variety of meat products. In order to provide the growing market with the meat products that it demands, the producers mix or purchase the concentrated animal feeds necessary to hasten and improve the quality of preparing animals for slaughter. The livestock concentrated feeds include cereal grains, cereal brans, legumes, pulses and many other ingredients that are required for direct feeding of humans and many say that by passing these food resources through livestock, it deprives starving people of food and feeding livestock with these materials is not economically acceptable. Most meat producers now demand greater control over their livestock and many are intensively reared and thus, feeds are controlled, the growing environment is controlled and chemical inputs are controlled and this gives the producers not only greater profit but better (commercial) growing conditions. This paper does not go into the rights and wrongs of intensively produced livestock versus naturally (organic) means, but does put forward the argument that the variety of materials used in livestock feeds is in direct competition with human food and these arguments need addressing. There is a case for more naturally produced meat products, but at this time, this is a niche market and potentially more expensive than intensively reared meat products. Other than humans eating mostly vegetarian diets there is little at this time that can be achieved in redressing the human livestock competition for many of the basic materials.

Water:
Some say that potable water will have more value per litre than petrol and in some places, this could be correct, given the remoteness of some communities where underground water tables have declined. It will also be very likely that in heavily populated urban areas water will be of high value and these are places where wastage is high. By the year 2050 it is estimated that the planet will be home to between nine and ten billion people and the sourcing and distribution of potable water will be a major problem and it therefore makes some sense that householders or whole communities must be made more responsible for collecting their own water, be it from harvested rainwater or recycling reusable water. It has been stated by scientists that by the year 2050 there will need to be an increase of 30% of potable water made available and if this is the case, this has to be resourced from somewhere.
- With approximately 9 to 10 billion people to feed by 2050, improved methods of household water harvesting and storage must be developed -

Governments are responsible for ensuring that water is made available be this through a governments own resources or contracting this out to private companies and the companies are likely to be more efficient and are more likely to make sustainable charges which may guarantee less water is wasted. It is also up to governments to make and enforce laws regarding water storage and usage. No matter how much or how well the water that is used is recycled there are costs associated with the processes involved and also in the means of gathering and redistributing the recycled water and these costs are rising and few developing countries have any means of charging households for the water that comes through the taps. There is a vast amount of water wasted through evaporation, run off and general misuse, mostly by householders. The industrial use of water is slowly being improved although most industries have to recycle their own water, ensuring that any chemicals in the system are extracted. Due to the high chemical content of storm-water (from streets, farms etc), most of this is
9

2 - The Consequences of localised Climate Change

left to run into the seas, rivers and lakes with fresh water being taken from rivers above the point where storm-water flows in.
Solutions to wastage of water: * Require householders to harvest and store rainwater. * Provide householders with ceramic or other water filters. * Create and maintain more community water catchment areas. * Encourage communities to construct reservoirs. * Charge for potable water at point of collection. * Modernise and Improve the water storage and distribution infrastructure. * Improve the processing capability and reduce the cost of seawater desalination. * Improve awareness of household water wastage. * Improve awareness of industrial water wastage. * Improve the water distribution infrastructure and maintain pipe and valve systems.

Some governments are already harvesting seawater and desalinating this to make it potable, although there is the problem of what to do with the salt (and other waste materials) once desalination is completed. It is possible to return some of it to the sea but there will come a point when this will be difficult to sustain. Some sea salt can be extracted for industrial and condiment use but only so much of this can be used. Drilling deeper to reach lowering water tables has its own problems, as has already been seen in some delta countries and this is, the deeper that boreholes go the more likely they will encounter heavy metal substances that pollute the water and these are very poisonous and difficult to remove.

Land and Housing:

As more people are displaced or migrate voluntarily from areas affected by climate change there is a need to ensure that not only is there infrastructure to place residential areas, there is a requirement to better ensure that the dwellings are economical to run but also have contained communities. At the rate at which urbanisation is occurring, it is unlikely that civil authorities will be able to keep up with the resources to match the needs. Imagine at first few, followed by large numbers of people moving away from the economical and physical changes from climate changes and seeking opportunities in the urban areas, which must expend to satisfy these people. No matter that if left unmanaged any primary expansion will be haphazard. Prior to any thoughts or actions regarding settlement areas for migrants or displaced people from climate change, it is very necessary to study maps and undertake a zoning exercise to show where settlement areas can or cannot be. There are many areas where housing developments must not be allowed to start as there are also many areas where housing developments would be ideal, given that certain criteria are met and these are outlined on page 9 of Climate Change and Ordinary Folk 1. However, as also discussed, the impoverished tend to break many of the rules when they need places to resettle and to some extent, some leeway can be given but not where there are hazardous areas. Added to the need to provide zoning for settlements there is an even greater need to undertake a full land use study, as there must be obvious areas for various usages, be it for agriculture, forestry, water catchment and storage, mineral extraction, residential or other. Likewise there must be areas where settlements cannot be allowed. There is no escaping that fact that people will migrate and that studies show that urbanisation is growing rapidly and this entails making sure that land is available. These new residential areas must not be allowed to take anymore agricultural land or land that is termed unsuitable for peoples dwellings. Local governments will need strength of character in order to cope with the political needs of planning and managing new urban areas; otherwise shanty towns will proliferate.
- With approximately 9 to 10 billion people to house by 2050, space must be found to shelter an ever expanding urban population -

With so many people expected to migrate to the urban areas, planning of infrastructure becomes vital and also, the planning of essential services that are affordable for low income inhabitants.
10

2 - The Consequences of localised Climate Change

Urban planning: (Basic requirements) * Using the least land to the maximum affect. * Ensuring a sustainable power supply. * Ensuring a sustainable potable water supply (community outlets). * Ensuring a sustainable other water supplies. * Ensuring a sustainable waste disposal capacity. * Garbage * Waste & Storm-water * Recyclables * Ensuring a sustainable and efficient sewerage disposal capacity. * Local markets. * Employment opportunities (may require community based projects). * Low cost health clinics. * Community service and recreation areas. * Retail and service outlets. * Food * Domestic commodities * Other

Without doubt, the settlement areas will be crowded places and with all of the competition for resources and employment there are bound to be conflicts, whether or not they are minor squabbles of major civil disturbances, the authorities must be aware of the potential of civil conflict and be able to respond accordingly and there are many variables that are likely to add to stress situations. As noted in Climate Change and Ordinary Folk 1 there are certain variables that require attention when planning resettlement housing areas and of these religious tolerances, racial tolerances and tribal tolerances are paramount and it is necessary not to discount developed country resettlement areas in these considerations. There is a need to develop better housing structures that use less of the depleting resources for heating or cooling and also to develop much improved household equipment that uses power, especially as the processes and residue from creating power causes an ever increasing carbon footprint in the Earths atmosphere.

Adapting to Change:
For some who may deny that any changes are occurring, or are unlikely to occur and prefer to leave any possible problems and solutions of changing climates to future generations, there is little to be done other than to let them confront the higher costs that are starting to occurr now. They will leave the future generations to alter their lifestyles because of changing local climates. This means that others who do believe that the climates are changing now to possibly sacrificing many of the benefits that they have accrued and others believe that by adopting new attitudes or lifestyles is what they will have to do and few seem to understand the logic in adapting. As was pointed out in The Stern Review, adaption cannot in itself solve problems of climate change and adaption will only provide local benefits and this has to be accepted. Governments are not going to fund massive support projects that will act as a band-aid only, although governments with political consensus will bring in laws that make it harder to waste resources. Stern tells us that due to melting glaciers one-sixth of the worlds population could be threatened by flooding; mainly in Indian sub-continent, China and the Andes. Likewise sea level rises will cause flooding in South-East Asia (Vietnam and Bangladesh), the Caribbean and the Pacific area; whilst if global temperatures rise to 4o Celsius global food production is likely to be seriously affected. There are many such warnings in the Stern Revue and they should be taken seriously. Strangely, few people tend to notice that they are adapting and it is not until looking back that people realise that they have changed to meet situations that arise. Adapting to local changes in climate is the main way in which many communities will find some of the solutions and if governments can provide a few of the basic resources, it will save large amounts of capital and ensure that the public is involved. Communities that face a shortage of water will quickly learn not to waste this resource and may, without having to think too hard about the problem, start to put in place systems for harvesting, storing and filtering rainwater and given this, government should give assistance. However, there have been some cases where communities have attempted to improve their water catchment areas by planting
11

2 - The Consequences of localised Climate Change

trees in the mistaken belief that the trees would reduce evaporation. In fact, the trees planted were of a fast growing commercial pulping species grown on contract and took 90% of the water, but due to the contract, the community could not remove the trees. Small farming communities may slowly come to see that greater co-operation between them may work out well if they process much of the crop residues through livestock and poultry, producing not only better animals (thus income) but also valuable manures. It is hoped also that some form of cultivation free method of planting might become more popular than it is already and thus help to reduce the carbon emissions when soil is cultivated, although this may mean that more chemicals would be used for land clearance.
- Doing nothing about climatic changes is not an option -

If governments are to provide aid for adaption techniques they will need to raise capital in order to fund the need and this can only be achieved successfully by indirect taxation, whereby those able to afford other than the basic needs can be asked to pay an added indirect tax. It has been said many times that doing nothing is not an option and this is correct unless the general populace and its leaders are prepared to meet the consequences.

The consequences of doing nothing:

The land: There are very large amounts of unused and underused land in Africa and some national governments and private institutions have purchased or leased thousands of square kilometres in order to produce food to be sent back to the home nation or traded on the international commodity markets. Providing water for irrigation on these lands may be something of a problem and the danger is that rivers may be diverted (and/or dammed) or large amounts of underground water may be taken, without regard to sustainability. As discussed in Climate Change and Ordinary Folk 1 there will need to be zoning of land to separate non-agricultural land from other land in order to ensure that crop production land is not wasted. (Map 8)

Map 8

Map 8 source: The Mineral Industries of Africa 1999 G.J Coakley

Whilst discussing land, it is important to note that although there are vast amounts of unused land in Africa there is possibly a reason why African governments are reluctant to invest in these open spaces and map 8 will show some of the reasons why: minerals and lots of them and who knows where the
12

2 - The Consequences of localised Climate Change

next mega find may be. The red and yellow sections of map 8 show the various conflict areas (1999) and although there have been some additions since 1999, minerals and conflict often go together.
(It should be noted that none of the maps in this document take into account the newly established country of The Republic of South Sudan and this is because the border between north and south Sudan is not yet finally defined. as soon as the United Nations releases maps that show the final definition of this boundary they will be used.)

There may be some interest as to why many researchers concentrate on the African continent and one obvious answer comes to mind and that is; it is accessible easily to all and the vast amount of resources available in the form of land and minerals are of interest to all. Africa, other than the northern states are in constant flex, meaning that most of the countries leaders are open to negotiations to all and Africa has yet to go through many changes. Too many people also forget that African tribal politics still plays a very important role in day to day life, from presidents to paupers and it is often to which group you belong, rather than personal capabilities. Tribal politics is more common throughout the world than many would suppose and to some extent this acts as a restraint on development of solutions to combat the advancing climatic changes. India [b]

India [a]

These maps, India [a] and India [b] show the vulnerability to desertification[a] and the population density[b]

Studying maps of India will also alarm many, as the medium to long term effects of climate changes take hold. India map [a] is one example for the Indian nation, showing the areas likely to be affected by desertification, ranging from moderate to very high and in a country that needs to improve its food production industry, this will be difficult to do where essential land is drying out and crop production becomes impossible in some areas. India map [b] shows the very high population density and a comparison with India map [a] will show that in the southeast sector of the country, where the population density is high is an area vulnerable to high vulnerability to desertification. The map, India [c] shows the general quality of the soil and highlights the fact that a majority of the soil is medium (marginal) and requires a lot of inputs for it to yield well. This does not bode well for Indias expending population and here again, many of the problems are political and to some extent territorial. Some Indian communities have already successfully
13

2 - The Consequences of localised Climate Change

challenged the government on land reforms, whereby the government has attempted to take land away from small farming communities to turn into new industrialised business areas and although Indias industrial economy is growing well, it must not be allowed to do so by taking land away from agriculture.
- There are formidable tasks to be undertaken if the worlds population is to find the solutions necessary to adapt to change -

Whether or not India decides to join the other countries investing in large areas of agricultural land in Africa is yet to be seen, although they do have an existing presence; mostly in mineral resources and they may feel the need to improve the amount of basic foods to their growing population. It is probable that some areas of the world will notice little physical change, whilst others suffer the consequences of severe drought, severe flooding, coastal and upland erosion and displacement from these. The potential of having to fight for their basic needs and as greater and more rapid urbanisation is very likely; the mix of problems can only lead to civil unrest. As much of the civil unrest will be within national borders other nations may hope not to be affected and yet, it is inevitable that everyone will be affected and will share in the consequences. Already there is growing apathy towards the increasing demand for cash to be raised for climatic emergencies and too soon there may be too many emergencies and too little funds to address the consequences of not aiding. The tasks are formidable if solutions are to be found to some of the consequences envisaged; not least to distribute essential basic needs such as water, food and shelter to those affected by emergency needs. The consequences for China may be very difficult to manage and although little information filters through to the west, the Chinese Government must be beginning to wonder if it can control the probable consequences of general economic migration, climate change displacement or climate change migration of people who have noticed that climatic changes are already affecting household budgets and thus migrate. With greater industrialisation China is rapidly urbanising and the climatic changes will encourage more community members to move from the economically challenged rural areas and seek opportunities in the rapidly burgeoning urban areas. The large grey and blue areas of the map (alongside) shows the vast dry area of China and the yellow and orange areas show areas that are at risk from higher temperatures and although Chinas industrial economy is strong, questions will be asked if it is strong enough to cope with a significant percentage of its population wanting to take advantage of the economical boom and leave behind areas that are prone to climate change.

Map 9

Not only does China have a water shortage it also has many that are undernourished and perhaps, the giant dams that the Chinese Government are constructing may go some way to reduce the water shortages, also allowing a wider use of irrigation for crop production. Population comparison: Country: African continent China India World Population: (2008-2009) 1,010,798,629 (15.13%) 1,330,045,000 (19.91%) 1,147,996,000 (17.18%) 6,679,676,248 Landmass: 30,354,295 sq km. (21.58%) 9,596,960 sq km. (6.82%) 3,287,590 sq km. (2.33%) 140,663,792 sq km.
14

2 - The Consequences of localised Climate Change

The small table above shows that the populations of Africa, China and India have between them 52.22% of the worlds population and 30.73% of the worlds land mass (including lakes and rivers) and this shows how little room there is for expansion, taking into account the inclusion of desert, mountains and other inhabitable areas. Food resources: Given that areas within the globe will experience changes in climatic conditions, the scenario for food production needs to be addressed and given also that the majority of the world depends on certain grains, tubers and pulses; there could be problems both with production and distribution.
Grains: Rice Wheat Oat Maize Tubers: Irish potato Sweet potato Yam Other: Sorghum Soya Pulses

The main producers of wheat will experience various changes; some small and some large; be it in Russia, Canada, USA, Australia or Europe, with drier areas in the USA and warmer in Russia, Canada and Europe. It may be that where, in colder climates with short growing seasons, more wheat could be grown, whereas in Australia for example, less wheat can be grown. Wheat is the main food of many cultures, be it made into leavened bread loaves, unleavened chapattis or pita, or into a form of porridge. With rice, the subject is a little more complicated as new varieties are being developed that require less water and that grow in upland areas and this could be important for the areas where rice is the staple food. None-the-less the market prices of rice will continue to rise as although improved varieties are being produced, the rice consuming global population is increasing. With many of the existing varieties, large areas of flooded land are required and rice is not heat tolerant, other than the tolerance that it has at present and it is stated by the agricultural scientists that for every one degree Celsius rise in temperature rice production decreases by ten percent. With maize, conditions in some areas are making it more difficult to grow, though this hardy species has some tolerance to drought, having the ability to put roots down well into the soil but needs high inputs of fertiliser to grow well. Although a large amount of research has gone into developing higher yielding varieties of maize, few have developed a shorter variety that takes up less of the soils natural nutrients and maize can grow to 1.5 metres. Maize is the main food of Africa and South America, although it is grown throughout the world. Where the western countries enjoy the sweet yellow cobs, the Africans make a thick porridge like meal from white maize, to be taken with vegetables and meats. The husks (or bran) make an ideal basic food for livestock. The remains of maize after harvesting (stover) can be used as cooking fuel, but is very hard to incorporate back into the soil, as it is very hard to break down and is usually burnt in heaps in the fields. With drier temperatures and less rainfall, it is probable that less maize will be grown, although as Europe gets warmer, more will be grown on this continent. There is a also demand from bio-fuel producers to process the maize into alcohol for adding to petroleum fuels. As can be seen there are many more demands on the cereal crops other than human food resources, although genetically modified maize and rice is now available and may help to improve yields and also improve protection against pest invasion. However, the cost of the new seed varieties is too much for the multitude of small growers and they keep to the old varieties, saving seed year-after-year and this causes many long term problems. Many of the grains and pulses are used in livestock and domestic pet feeds and this is causing great concern and a conundrum, as more human inhabitants demand more basic foods from grains but, they also demand a greater amount of meats. Tubers, the great standby crop of Irish potato, sweet potato or yam for many that live in the tropical areas and although many regard these as poor mans food they are easy to grow and will tolerate poor soils, although they do better in fertile soils, but these are usually kept for cereal production. They are many ways to cook the tuber crops and some are dried and processed into flour for adding to sorghum or other basics.
15

2 - The Consequences of localised Climate Change

Sorghum is a tropical plant that is very drought resistant although it is difficult to harvest and there are high losses to birds that feed on the ripening seeds. It can be dried and ground into flour for adding to cereal meals and can be fermented into a delicious non-alcoholic drink and also a potent alcohol. Being drought resistant it is a very useful plant but is out of favour with many cultures, again being seen as a poor mans food. Pulses are vegetables that provide a large amount of natural protein and many cultures rely on these for sustenance together with a basic cereal crop food. Pulses range from the humble per or string bean to soya and others. Soya is in worldwide demand and there is a great shortage of this valuable crop for both human and animal food. There are genetically modified varieties (mostly in the USA) although these are sold under licence with royalties being paid to the seed producers. Unlike other pulses soya can be processed into lookalike meat products for vegetarians and into milk and soya is a most versatile plant. In South America it is said that forests are being cleared in order to grow soya and this is of great concern and the earths supply of oxygen depends on many forests such as found in southern America. Many small farmers in developing countries are subsistent farmers, barely producing enough to keep their households in food and often having to find work outside of the home in order to top up the diet and to purchase other household needs. At best the majority of these are inefficient agriculturalists and more support is required to raise the level of proficiency and production as part of a solution, with support given for fresh planting material. Should these farmers be able to progress and produce sufficient for their households, it would decrease the amount of subsequent aid required. Many are so poor by the time harvest comes they are forced to sell the freshly harvested crop in order to pay off debts accrued during the growing seasons. Throughout the world there are hotspots of those that do not get enough to eat and recent famine alerts highlight what can happen when climates start to change and/or there are political disturbances that enhance a potential conflict situation where food is short. As can be seen from map 9 Africa has many hotspots and yet it has great potential to produce sufficient food for the continent not to experience shortages. Genetically Modified Food Crops: There are three camps regarding genetically modified food crops; the anti, the pro and the dont know or care and of these the anti are the most vociferous, whilst the pros cannot make a case, as so little is known about the benefits or detriments of processing or eating genetically modified crops. The same should be said of the antis as they cannot make a case either, simply because not enough time (as in generations) has passed in order for any facts to be known. The likelihood is that there will be many more benefits than detriments, though this may depend upon what purpose modifications are made for. For example, if modifications are made to improve drought resistance then this is good, but if modifications are made in order to patent a particular strain, then this can be seen as bad. Anything to improve the ability of food crops to improve growth and yield and in a world that is short of food, then these benefits should be tested and if successful, should be made widely available and if there are risks involved, these should be taken. Any risks far outweigh the possible benefits and there are likely to be less people that die because of certain modifications than would die of starvation; again, the risks are acceptable. One important benefit that can be accrued is improving the drought resistance of cereals such as maize and wheat or developing rice varieties that need less water. Trials have been undertaken and these benefits have been developed already and yet, they cannot be released into the main commercial markets. Soya has been genetically modified and much is grown in the United States of America and exported throughout the world and soya is a very important vegetable protein source. Of some concern is the potential for cross-pollination of genetically modified crops to naturally produced crops and to some extent, the results of any cross-pollination are an unknown. Any crosspollination could be beneficial but there are risks attached. In the wild, plants naturally cross-pollinate and the strongest survive and thrive to form new species, which may or may not be beneficial to humans or animals; but this process can take many generations.

16

2 - The Consequences of localised Climate Change

Map 10

Map 10 shows the world situation of the undernourished

This map (10) shows the situation, as in 2009, of the estimated undernourishment of populations throughout the world, although this is estimated on nationwide summaries. As can be seem from map 10, there are many malnourished throughout the world and again, Africa features greatly and yet, Africa has so much potential to grow much more food. India, parts of South East Asia, Mongolia and parts of central and southern America also feature and some of these areas also feature in the water scarcity map (map 11). Therefore some of the food / water shortages are related to climate and genetically modified crops would probably be of assistance in decreasing the number of undernourished. Water resources:
Map 11

Map 11 - Water poverty map (source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management)

17

2 - The Consequences of localised Climate Change

Too many people take the availability of clean drinking water for granted and yet it has to undergo many processes of cleaning in most countries, although where there are outlets of naturally drinkable water, it is usually sweet and cool. It is said that soon, clean drinking (potable) water will be more expensive per litre than carbon fuels, as there are now great shortages in many areas and as the human or animal body cannot live very long without water, many could suffer from the deprivation of this valuable resource. Many countries are converting seawater into drinking water and this has potential, although the process is as yet expensive to manufacture and run and it is hoped to reduce the cost of this process by improved technology, although this may be some time off in the future. The consequences of not harvesting and storing river or rain water are many and yet, at a household level it is relatively simple to harvest rainwater, although in industrialised areas there would need to be extra care taken to filter out harmful pollutants of the rainwater. It could be imagined that in tropical areas with heavy periods of rain that people would not be short of drinking water but many are. Few gather (or harvest) rainwater and store this in reservoirs and this needs addressing as too many rely on government to process and pipe water to outreaching areas and the use of simple and cheap ceramic and other filters helps to clean rainwater at household or community level. There is some concern about seawater percolating into low lying delta areas as sea levels rise and should this occur it is possible that underground water may be polluted by salt. Many of the rivers throughout the world are polluted with silt and debris and human waste and the extracted water has to go through many cleaning processes before it is fit for drinking. Much of the silt pollution comes from soil erosion in the uplands and upper reaches of rivers and as certain areas become overused for agricultural purposes, erosion is likely to increase. Trying to dissuade householders from growing crops on the banks of rivers is difficult to do and the continual use disturbs the deeper soils which eventually erode, be it by rain or wind.

Conclusion:
To quote the Stern Report, Climate change is global in its causes and consequences, and international collective action will be critical in driving an effective, efficient and equitable response on the scale required. Although the Stern Report states that climate change is global in its causes and consequences, the word overall needs to be applied because the consequences are local and it is local areas where the full effects will be felt and indeed the ideal would be a truly global response and yet, this is very unlikely to happen, taking into account home politics, home economies and attitudes to climate change. Many will attempt to disguise to true extend of climate changes, not wishing the rest of the world to know of some of the dire consequences within communities. Given some of the scare tactics used by some, many people would get the impression that climate changes are a doomsday situation, which it is not. There is no apocalypse and climate changes, like any other environmental process can be managed and although it is true to say that this means great hardship for many of the impoverished, millions are not going to die. Some will, be it from direct starvation in some circumstances or which is more likely civil conflict and natural calamities. Neither are these climate changes some form of religious retribution, as the planet, like others is a living organism that changes throughout the centuries. What is needed is a global mapping system to determine where extra land can be made available for food production, where underused land can be revitalised and where sustainable water sources can be established and distributed to where it is needed. There is also a requirement to determine where the majority of the human population can dwell, where they can receive the basic food, water and services that they require. The Sahara Desert was once a fertile place, known as the breadbasket of the Roman Empire; until that is, the Roman Empire became greedy and overextended itself, thinking that it could not only rule a large proportion of the planet but also feed it from its own resources and hereby lies a lesson. Overextension of concentrated food production will fail unless it is managed and managed it can be. Therefore the paramount need is not only to determine what the basic problems are in maintaining the lifestyles of the human race, but to determine the solutions and thus management of the resources.
- It is interesting to note that many speak of changing lifestyles or adopting new technology to meet the needs and so few talk of logically adapting to change 18

2 - The Consequences of localised Climate Change

Solutions are what are required as there are too many people willing to point out the problems and yet so few willing to address the possible solutions. There are solutions to some of the problems although too many expect lifestyles to return to what they were before these changes started to occur and it is, as usual, up to the ordinary folk to make these changes. Therefore, we must address the problems of water shortages by implementing some of the logical solutions, such as householders harvesting rainwater and passing this through a simple filter system to at least, provide water for the daily chores and charge for potable water, at source, delivered to communities. It is interesting to think that without thinking about it people will adapt to changes in climate and this will occur without perceivable intent and as with prehistoric man, adaption will evolve naturally and although the benefits will only be local, the changes will be noted and gradually spread. And yet, how important are these gentle adaptations to the overall outcome in the grossly impoverished and underresourced areas of the world. It is likely that adaptation will be too late for some communities and people are more likely to flee the apparent changes, rather than adapt rapidly, assuming that they have the wherewithal to adapt.
- Adaption cannot in itself solve problems of climate change and will only provide local benefits (Stern Report) -

In order to be able to better ensure that climate change migrants and displaced persons have adequate places in which to resettle, there needs to be some form of co-ordination between government offices and international associations. This is probably best achieved under the regional associations that represent groups of countries as they will have a better idea of the potential problems and thus be able to put forward solutions. Research to undertake zoning is best done locally, although the abilities of the major international associations would be needed to provide support to some of the developing countries and likewise, some of the potential solutions to either adjusting to climate changes or preparing for the consequences of many millions of people likely to want to settle elsewhere.
- Any advancement in implementing the solutions regarding climate changes will depend on cooperation to source the solutions and co-operation is a hard goal to achieve when competition for resources is high -

Most of the people on the move will move internally although there are bound to be occasions where resettlement across borders may be needed and hence, the importance of the regional associations. Although often seen as ineffective the United Nations seems to be the right choice to act as overall coordinator for solution enactment. Without improving the availability of potable water and basic foods, there are going to be many more famines as seen in east Africa and in this area alone, famines may be repetitive. The worlds population has by one means or another to come to terms with adapting to living in localised climate changes and if we do not, it is the ordinary folk that will be burdened with the consequences.
Core Studies July 2011

Acknowledgements: United States of America - Department of Agriculture www.theodora.con/maps Stern Revue Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management Map 1 source: The Mineral Industries of Africa 1999 G.J Coakley (Please note that any maps within this document are as accurate as possible although there may be some small divergence in national boundaries etc Core Studies)
19