DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 August, 2011

M
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
Ron William, CMT, MSTA

S-TERM
MULTI-DAY

L-TERM
MULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/ POSITION

ENTRY LEVEL

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS

STOP

LONG 3 1869 SHORT 3 0.8720 Sell limit 3 127.35 Buy stop 3 77.20

Await directional trade setup into 1.4060 or 1.4580. Await fresh signal. 80.20/81.50/83.30 Await signal. Possibly looking to buy lower. Await buy trade setup above 0.9810. Await new sell trade setup below 1.0310. 126.35/125.00/123.00 Await fresh signal. Look to sell higher. 0.8680/0.8610/0.8500 (Entered on 19/08/2011) Possibly looking to buy lower. 1920/2100/2400 (Entered on 19/08/2011) Await trade setup. 1852 0.8760 128.35 75.90

USD/CAD AUD/USD GBP/JPY EUR/JPY

Bijoy Kar, CFA

EUR/GBP EUR/CHF GOLD SILVER

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES

Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports. CH-2008 Neuchtel info@migbank.com Switzerland www.migbank.com

MIG BANK Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01

EUR/USD EUR/USD
EURUSD's BERMUDA TRIANGLE

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 August, 2011 EURUSD remains bearish under resistance at 1.4420/1.4580.

FAILED
BREAKOUTS
PIVOT ZONE

EUR/USD remains bearish, despite the recent sharp reactionary bounce which eventually stalled around resistance at 1.4420 (pivot zone). This confirms yet another bearish signal, weighed down by additional failed breakouts (see red arrows) from this major Bermuda triangle pattern, which has proved costly to most investors and traders.

REVERSAL PATTERNS REVERSAL PATTERN AT 200 DMA (1.3962) TREND 2 YEARS (1.3880)

We prefer to open a trade setup once this pattern triggers a meaningful directional breakout into either 1.4160 or 1.4580 (on a closing basis). Our bearish view remains in play while the downtrend (from May 04th) holds. A resumption lower will target 1.3962 (200-DMA), where a large amount of die-hard trend followers will be watching closely for repeat support or a big squeeze lower toward our initial objectives at 1.3770 and 1.3410. Only a close above 1.4580 will lead to a reassessment of this view. Inversely, the US dollar index is maintaining consolidation above key
+27% +19%

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

200-DMA (76.54) US DOLLAR INDEX (Daily 2 years) US$ INDEX (Weekly) (4 YEARS)

support at 73.50-73.00. We expect this level to hold (as the last point of defence), helping launch a rebound back into 80.00 over the multiweek/month horizon. COT liquidity readings are currently neutral and must

TD EXHAUSTION BUY SIGNAL

return back to our upside trigger level of 15000 net long contracts. SPECIAL REPORT : EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410.
Please select link: REPORT VIDEO

STILL UNWINDING!

13
TD EXHAUSTION BUY SIGNALS

KEY SUPPORT (73.50)

TRIGGER (15000) COT LIQUIDITY

US Dollar Index daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Awaiting Directional Trade Setup into 1.4160 or 1.4580.

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 2

GBP/USD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 August, 2011 A re-test of 1.6747 remains possible near-term.
GBP/USD found support at 1.6111 and has since pushed back over the 1.6476/78 ceiling, reaching 1.6618 thus far, next targeting a return to 1.6747. Short-term structure remains positive and we continue to be biased towards a return to 1.6747 while above 1.6421. weaken our shorter-term bullish stance. However due to structure present since 1.6111, we would expect any potential break over 1.6747 to be minimal, with resistance expected close to 1.6800. We also view the recent break down to 1.6421 as the first signs of a breakdown in structure, so remain wary of aggressively following momentum at these levels, keeping our options open for possible signs of exhaustion too. Failure to remain above 1.6093 (200-day MA) will warn of a fresh relapse towards 1.5781, in the longer-term. Below this level will

GBP/USD weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3

USD/JPY
USD/JPY (Daily 1 YEAR)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 August, 2011
POST INTERVENTION RETRACEMENT (PIR I)

Potential BUY signal after NEW Record Low.

USD/JPY has developed a potential DeMark exhaustion buy signal, after last week's new post WWII record low which was carved out at 75.95. The

EARTHQUAKE SHOCK!

reversal signal is also taking place following the second post intervention
83.30

retracement (PIR II) in 2011, which is holding around multi-day support near 76.30-25. We remain bullish in the medium/long-term, watching for a sustained move above our initial upside trigger level at 77.00-77.20. This would initiate our buy trade setup, offering a resumption of the preferred new structural bullcycle into the all-important psychological level at 80.00, near 80.24 (post BOJ intervention II high).

POST G7 MOVE HIGH

82.00

POST BOJ MOVE HIGH

80.24

PIR II
USD/JPY Weekly (2007 2011)

ENDING DIAGONAL PATTERN BREAKOUT TARGET

(88-85)

Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-term monthly DeMark exhaustion signal, with TD Risk lines still holding at 79.83 and 76.79. Remember, only a sustained weekly close below here and 76.25 will lead to a reassessment of our view.

WAVE 5

MONTHLY TD EXHAUSTION BUY SIGNAL

13

TD EXHAUSTION BUY SIGNAL AFTER NEW POST WWII LOW (75.95)

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Buy stop 3 at 77.20, Obj: 80.20/81.50/83.30, Stop:75.90

USD/JPY daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426 4

USD/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 August, 2011 Tight consolidation continues. Pullback sought.
USD/CHF when viewed from a weekly perspective has the appearance of a possible false break lower. With this in mind, we continue to favour the formation of a higher low versus 0.7071 for a further recovery leg higher. However, we are inclined to wait for a pullback before committing to long positioning, expecting a breakout from the recent tight hourly consolidation between 0.7770 and 0.8017, with a bias to the downside. We also remain of the view that the current region may potentially offer medium-term scope for USD/CHF long positioning. However, we are also wary of issues in the Eurozone periphery which have been responsible for the extreme pricing we see now. We await the appropriate short-term set up, keeping an eye on periphery government

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

bond yields.

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await signal. Possibly looking to buy lower.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 5

USD/CAD
USD/CAD (Daily)
USD/CAD (Weekly )

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 August, 2011 Unwinding beneath 1.0000.
BULLISH REVERSAL PATTERN EXTENDS HIGHER USD/CADs accelerated recovery is finally unwinding, having reached that all-important 1.0000 parity level. However, expect to see further unwinding into near-term support at 0.9751 and 0.9670, before a resumption higher. We are watching for a renewed buy trade setup, favouring a major upsurge into 1.0210 plus. Elsewhere, EUR/CAD is still also unwinding from overbought condition, having recently accelerated above its 200-day MA. Key resistance at
MAJOR LOW (0.9446)

200-DMA (0.9808)

1.4379 (June swing high) is likely to hold. CHF/CAD is consolidating after its sharp decline from extremely
REVERSAL PATTERN

USD/CAD daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

MAJOR RESISTANCE CHF/CAD (Daily)

overbought conditions, having triggered a bearish reversal pattern. Key support can be found at 1.2260 (17th Aug swing low), then 1.1880 and 1.1240.

50% (1.3466) 61.8% (1.3379)

200-DMA (1.3676)

200-dMA (1.0932) EUR/CAD (Daily)

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await Buy Trade Setup Above 0.9810.

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 6

AUD/USD
AUD/USD (Daily 1 YEAR)
TD EXHAUSTION SELL SIGNALS TD RISK (1.1102) TD RISK (1.0935)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 August, 2011 Sharp decline unwinds from 1.0000 (parity).
AUD/USDs sharp decline is unwinding after reaching key level at 1.0000 (parity). We are watching for new sell trade setup into this bounce. The current oversold bounce is likely to hold for a few sessions and we would look to sell into this for a resumption back into 1.0000 and 0.9706. Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar. The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320. The Aussie dollar is unwinding against the Japanese yen, following its sharp pattern breakout which extended beneath key support at 80.42
13
TD EXHAUSTION SELL SIGNAL

200-DMA (1.0305)

AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/NZD (Daily) 200-DMA CAPS BEAR MKT AUD/JPY (Daily)

(61.8% Fib). The move adds to current risk aversion in the global financial community.

38.2% (84.09) 50% (82.25) 61.8% (80.42) 200-DMA (84.04)

BREAKOUT ADDS TO RISK AVERSION

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await New Sell Trade Setup below 1.0310.

KEY SUPPORT 1.2319 / 1.2100

AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 7

GBP/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 August, 2011 Lower high sought for fresh weakness.
GBP/JPY remains close to the 127.00 level, so we maintain our original scenario of a lower high in the 127.35 region for now, with the expectation of an eventual final leg lower in the fall from 130.85, following the BOJ intervention earlier in the month. The weekly timeframe continues to contain price within a falling channel, also maintaining our downside bias. However, we expect strong support to manifest between 118.85 and 122.36, should the pair weaken to those levels. Focusing on the shorter-term timeframe, we see scope for a return to the recent low at 123.31 ahead of a potential recovery higher. Longer-term we remain biased to a return to the region near 190.00, although any attempt at long positioning needs to be driven by evidence in the short-term that is suggestive of extended gains in the hourly daily timeframe at the very least. A break back under 118.85 is required to change this longer-term bias.

GBP/JPY weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 127.35, Objs: 126.35/125.00/123.00, Stop: 128.35

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 8

EUR/JPY
Hourly consolidation continues.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 August, 2011

EUR/JPY continues to be contained by a falling daily channel. A return towards 108.03 and then 106.61 is favoured over coming sessions. We have seen a test of the 200 day moving average (currently at 113.73), which has thus far been met by supply, with a relapse back below the trading range of the last few weeks reaching 108.03 so far. Infact, while under 114.18 we continue to expect a return to 106.61 initially, ahead of a return to 105.44. We await the formation of short-term structure to assist us in trade direction. In particular a breakout is sought from the recent consolidation that has evolved. We look to sell higher. EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await fresh signal. Look to sell higher.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 9

EUR/GBP
Return towards 0.8643 favoured.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 August, 2011

EUR/GBP has made an initial attempt at pushing under 0.8643, reaching 0.8654 thus far. We view a break under 0.8643 as likely triggering a fresh bout of weakness. Given that the recovery from 0.8643 to 0.8886 has now been unwound, beyond the 61.8% retrace, we now see an increased probability of an eventual break under 0.8643. With this in mind we expect a lower high to form close to current levels, with scope then for a fresh extension lower. We also note that a push under 0.8643 will begin to break down the positive structure seen since 0.8285, warning of a longer-term return to EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP 0.8068. Failure to stay below 0.8760 will warn of a larger corrective phase higher from the key low at 0.8643, with potential then for a return to 0.8886 before fresh weakness.

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Short 3 at 0.8720, Objs: 0.8680/0.8610/0.8500. Stop: 0.8760

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 10

EUR/CHF
Consolidation continues.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 August, 2011

EUR/CHF has left a possible false break lower out of a falling channel. We await a push over 1.1892 to confirm this formation. We have noted on previous reports the link between movements in EUR/CHF and the yield on Eurozone periphery yields. We continue to monitor the yields on Italian and Spanish 10 year government bonds. Short-term structure has been consolidating over the last six trading days. A break lower would be favoured, in line with our view in USD/CHF. However, a higher low is currently expected to form ahead of 1.0075 for a fresh recovery leg higher. Alternatively if price action hints at signs of exhaustion, we may be EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP tempted to trade with the larger trend and sell into what we initially expect to be a corrective swing lower. In the meantime, price remains confined in a tight hourly range. Stronger signals from short-term structure are awaited ahead of trade positioning.

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

www.migbank.com

Possibly looking to buy lower.

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 11

GOLD
GOLD Daily (April 2010-2011)
BIG 2000!
KEY LEVEL (1934-35)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 August, 2011 Gold unwinds amidst overbought signals. RISK ZONE
Gold is unwinding once again from renewed overbought signals, having recently carved out its fresh record high at 1913.50. As previously stated, a sustained confirmation above these new levels will offer extensions into the all-important 2000.00 level. We remain long, with an aggressive trailing stop-loss in place. Mild unwinding in gold can also be seen against key currencies (including FX majors; EUR, GBP, CHF and commodity-driven AUD & ZAR).
10 consecutive Higher Closes

III

In terms of the big picture, we continue to encourage strong riskmanagement, as prices extend the surge above its 12-year trend-channel. The unsustainable parabolic move also maintains a unique long-term DeMark exhaustion signal, which coincides with an important peak cycle on Gold.

TREND CHANNEL
(12 YEARS) GOLD RESUMES ACROSS KEY FX RATES GOLD in USD GOLD in EUR GOLD in CHF BREAKOUT!

The bearish risk for Gold is still weighed by the CMEs recent hike in margins, which often occurs during major highs (akin to Silvers crash in April). Watch support at 1720.00 and 1640.40. A break warns of a sharper reversal lower through the previous psychological level at 1600.00.

I
GOLD in AUD GOLD in ZAR

II
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GOLD Weekly LOG Chart (1999-2011)

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY LONG 3: 1869, Obj: 1920/2100/2400, Stop: 1852

Gold daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 12

SILVER
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High!
TD EXHAUSTION SELL SIGNALS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 August, 2011
13

Relief-rally unwinds from our target zone at 43.8480.

Silver's relief-rally is unwinding lower, in line with Gold's latest rise, after testing our target zone at 43.8477-80. Only a sustained close above here will offer further gains into 45.6650, where we believe some further unwinding may occur. Near-term support can be found at 38.2100 (20th July low). A break here

Silver (Daily)

13

TARGET II

200 DMA (34.1853)

would trigger downside risk into 34.8096 (200-dMA).

38.2% (32.3135)

Gold/Silver Ratio 50% (26.9150)

Key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bull market) and would still mean that silvers long-term uptrend remains intact.

We also continue to watch silvers relative performance against gold, which

61.8% (21.5165)
13 YEAR LEVEL UNWINDING 37% FROM OVERSOLD TERRITORY

is currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.

37%

OVER

30 YEAR BASE

BULL MARKET FROM 1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting Trade Setup.

Spot Silver daily, weekly, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13

LEGAL TERMS
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 August, 2011 Limitation of liability
MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

DISCLAIMER

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Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

www.migbank.com

14

CONTACT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

23 August, 2011

Howard Friend www.migbank.com Chief Market Strategist h.friend@migbank.com

Ron William Technical Strategist r.william@migbank.com

Bjioy Kar Technical Strategist b.kar@migbank.com

MIG BANK info@migbank.com www.migbank.com

14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Tel.+41 32 722 81 00 15