Semana Demanda 3 5 7 MAD3 MAD5

1 800
2 1400
3 1000
4 1500 1066.67
5 1500 1300.00
6 1300 1333.33 1240
7 1800 1433.33 1340
8 1700 1533.33 1420 1328.57 166.67 280.00
9 1300 1600.00 1560 1457.14 300.00 260.00
10 1700 1600.00 1520 1442.86 100.00 180.00
11 1700 1566.67 1560 1542.86 133.33 140.00
12 1500 1566.67 1640 1571.43 66.67 140.00
13 2300 1633.33 1580 1571.43 666.67 720.00
14 2300 1833.33 1700 1714.29 466.67 600.00
15 2000 2033.33 1900 1785.71 33.33 100.00
16 2200.00 2200.00 1960 1828.57 241.67 302.50

Sema Dema
na nda
1 100
2 125
3 90
4 110
5 105
6 130
7 85
8 102
9 110
10 90
11 105
12 95
13 115
14 120
15 80
16 95
17 100
MAD7 ECM3 ECM5 ECM7

371.43 27777.7778 78400 137959.184

157.14 90000 67600 24693.8776
257.14 10000 32400 66122.449
157.14 17777.7778 19600 24693.8776
71.43 4444.44444 19600 5102.04082
728.57 444444.444 518400 530816.327
585.71 217777.778 360000 343061.224
214.29 1111.11111 10000 45918.3673
317.86 101666.667 138250 147295.918
Semana Demanda 3 5 7 MAD
1 100
2 125
3 90
4 110 105.00
5 105 108.33
6 130 101.67 106.00
7 85 115.00 112.00
8 102 106.67 104.00 106.43 4.67 2.00
9 110 105.67 106.40 106.71 4.33 3.60
10 90 99.00 106.40 104.57 9.00 16.40
11 105 100.67 103.40 104.57 4.33 1.60
12 95 101.67 98.40 103.86 6.67 3.40
13 115 96.67 100.40 102.43 18.33 14.60
14 120 105.00 103.00 100.29 15.00 17.00
15 80 110.00 105.00 105.29 30.00 25.00
16 95 105.00 103.00 102.14 10.00 8.00
17 100 98.33 101.00 100.00 1.67 1.00
102.00 10.40 9.26
 4.43
3.29
14.57
0.43
8.86
12.57
19.71
25.29
7.14
0.00
9.63
Periodos
Demanda (D)
Mensuales 2 3 4 mad2
Enero 30
Febrero 35
Marzo 28 32.5
Abril 20 31.5 31
Mayo 25 24 27.666667 28.25 1
Junio 30 22.5 24.333333 27 7.5
Julio 35 27.5 25 25.75 7.5

Agosto 40
32.5 30 27.5 7.5
Septiembre 50 37.5 35 32.5 12.5
Octubre ¿? 45 41.666667 38.75 7.2

PROMEDIO MOVIL DOBLE

Periodo Dem Real Mt Mt' At Bt

1 654
2 658
3 665
4 672 659
5 673 665
6 671 670 664.67 675.33 5.33
7 693 672 669.00 675.00 3.00
8 694 679 673.67 684.33 5.33
9 701 686 679.00 693.00 7.00
10 703 696 687.00 705.00 9.00
11 702 699.333 693.78 704.89 5.56
12 710 702 699.11 704.89 2.89
13 712 705 702.11 707.89 2.89
14 711 708 705.00 711.00 3.00
15 728 711 708.00 714.00 3.00
16
 Mt Mt' At Bt
1 1140
2 1212
3 1274
4 1297
5 1317
6 1370 1248
7 1348 1294
8 1436 1321.2
9 1433 1353.6
10 1461 1380.8 1319.52 1442.08 30.64
11 1509 1409.6 1351.84 1467.36 28.88
12 1510 1437.4 1380.52 1494.28 28.44
13 1546 1469.8 1410.24 1529.36 29.78
14 1541 1491.8 1437.88 1545.72 26.96
15 1494 1513.4 1464.4 1562.4 24.5
16 1545 1520 1486.48 1553.52 16.76
17 1552 1527.2 1504.44 1549.96 11.38
18 1568 1535.6 1517.6 1553.6 9
19 1605 1540 1527.24 1552.76 6.38
20 1621 1552.8 1535.12 1570.48 8.84
21 1647 1578.2 1546.76 1609.64 15.72
22 1728 1598.6 1561.04 1636.16 18.78
23 1730 1633.8 1580.68 1686.92 26.56
24 1766 1666.2 1605.92 1726.48 30.14
25
26
27
28
PROMEDO MOVIL PONDERADO

100 90 105 95 97.5

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

90 105 95 120 106.5

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL
ALFA
SEM DEM REAL 0.23446944 1 MAD 0.4 MAD 0.7
1 820 820 820
2 775 820 820 45 45
3 680 809.448875 775 129.44887538 95
4 655 779.097071 680 124.09707058 25
5 750 750.0001 655 0.0001004283 95
6 802 750.000077 750 51.999923119 52
7 798 762.19247 802 35.807530473 4
8 689 770.588241 798 81.588241002 109
9 775 751.458292 689 23.541707851 86
10 756.978103 775 61.435431104 63.875

ALFA MAD 0.5

PERIODO DEMANDA 0.73999391 0.8
2011 1080 1080 1080
2012 1190 1080 1080 110
2013 1100 1161.39933 1168 61.399330125
2014 1220 1115.9642 1113.6 104.03580026
2015 1300 1192.95006 1198.72 107.04994162
2016 1450 1272.16636 1279.744 177.83363673
2017 1400 1403.76217 1415.9488 3.7621714832
2018 1500 1400.97819 1403.18976 99.021812504
2019 1550 1474.25373 1480.637952 75.746274271
2020 1520 1530.30551 1536.12759 10.305507412
2021 1570 1522.67949 1523.225518 47.320505315
2022 1600 1557.69638 1560.645104 42.303619553
2023 1589.0008 1592.129021 76.252599934

SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL DOBLE

0.8
PERIODO DEM REAL At At' a b
 1 200 200 200 200 0
2 135 200 200 200 0
3 195 148 158.4 137.6 -41.6
4 197.5 185.6 180.16 191.04 21.76
5 310 195.12 192.128 198.112 11.968
6 175 287.024 268.0448 306.0032 75.9168
7 155 197.4048 211.5328 183.2768 -56.512
8 130 163.48096 173.091328 153.870592 -38.441472
9 220 136.696192 143.9752192 129.4171648 -29.1161088
10 277.5 203.339238 191.4664346 215.21204224 47.49121536
11 235 262.667848 248.4275651 276.9081303 56.961130496
12
mad3 mad4 ECM2 ECM3 ECM4

2.6666667 3.25 1 7.11111111 10.5625

5.6666667 3 56.25 32.1111111 9
10 9.25 56.25 100 85.5625

10 12.5 56.25 100 156.25

15 17.5 156.25 225 306.25
8.6666667 9.1 65.2 92.8444 113.525

n =3
p =1
Yt 2
3
Chart Title
740

720

700

680

660
680.67
640
678.00
620
689.67
700.00 600
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
714.00 Column C Column D Column E Column H
710.44
707.78
710.78
714.00
717.00
720.00
Yt P n=5
1
2

1472.72
1496.24
1522.72
1559.14
1572.68
1586.9
1570.28
1561.34
1562.6
1559.14
1579.32
1625.36
1654.94
1713.48
1756.62
1786.76
 ALFA
0.4 0.7
820 820
820 820
802 788.5
753.2 712.55
713.92 672.265
728.352 726.6795
757.8112 779.40385
773.88672 792.421155
739.932032 720.026347
753.959219 758.507904

MAD 0.8

110
68
106.4
101.28
170.256
15.9488
96.81024
69.362048
16.1275904
46.77448192
39.35489638
76.39218697

Y
 200
200
96
212.8
210.08
381.92
126.7648
115.42912
100.301056
262.7032576
333.8692608
390.8303913
13 14 15 16 17

Column H
REGRESION LINEAL
Semana Demanda
1 600
2 1550
3 1500
4 1500
5 2400 Chart Tit
6 3100 7000

7 2600 6000
8 2900
5000
9 3800
4000
10 4500
11 4000 3000

12 4900 Y = a + bX 2000
13 5116.6667 5116.667 1000
14 5476.2821 5476.282
0
15 5835.8974 5835.897 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

16 6195.5128 6195.513

a 441.66667 LS 5776.18103
b 359.6153846 LI 4457.15231
Sxy 363.877797
R 0.96601558
R^2 0.9331861
0.9331861

t 1.812461122812
1.812461122812

Permisos Ventas -Alfo

18 13000
15 12000
12 11000
10 10000
 20 14000
28 16000
35 19000
30 17000
20 13000
40 20467.3367

Syx 331.954555
R2 0.98880289

REGRESION EXPONENCIAL

PEIRODO VENTAS
1 108
2 119
3 110
4 122
5 130
6 132.3393313068

Y = ab^X
a 104.3704841658
b 1.040363737736
Y 132.3393313068

Año Ventas
1 1000
2 1300
3 1800
4 2000
5 2000
6 2000
7 2200
8 2600
9 2900
10 3200
11 3286.666666667
Syx 173.0300376796
NC 0.9
Gl 2
t 1.859548037531 1.85954804
LS 3608.424333668
LI 2964.908999666
 Y = Bo + B1X1 + B2X2+………BnXn
Y X1 X2
8 4 20
10 3 22
12 6 23
13 6 26
15 7 27
18 8 30
26 9 40
-8.89473684 0.368421052632 0.78947368

Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente d 0.989137680912
Coeficiente d 0.978393351801
R^2 ajustado 0.963988919668
Error típico 0.675381633506
Observacione 6

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 2 61.9649123 30.9824561 67.9230769 0.003176
Residuos 3 1.36842105 0.45614035
Total 5 63.3333333

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%

Intercepción -8.89473684211 2.80805902 -3.16757475 0.05057503 -17.8312339 0.0417602
Variable X 1 0.368421052632 0.35262721 1.04478905 0.37289365 -0.75379612 1.49063823
Variable X 2 0.789473684211 0.17891297 4.41261304 0.02159713 0.22009278 1.35885459
 Chart Title

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Inferior 95.0%
Superior 95.0%
-17.8312339 0.0417602
-0.75379612 1.49063823
0.22009278 1.35885459