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T R E N D S
Welcome to Wave 5
Five waves of the GlobalWebIndex research project has revealed for the first time the true picture of internet evolution globally. Two structural trends are influencing consumers worldwide and are the key drivers behind behavioural trends that are not only occurring globally but diverge from one another at the local level. The following, is a summary deck designed for external publication, for the full deck and to understand the data and tool behind the GlobalWebIndex, please visit globalwebindex.net or email globalwebindex@trendstream.net
ONE WORLD: MANY INTERNETS THE POST PC ERA: BREAKING THE MOUSE BARRIER
The most detailed research study ever instigated into the consumer adoption of the internet
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27 markets in Wave 5
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S U M M A R Y
O F W A V E 5 T R E N D S K E Y P O I N T S
A N D
By putting a computer inside the mobile phone, mobile device manufacturers started a process that has seen mobile phones and tablet devices evolve to a point where people no longer go to the internet as a separate part of their everyday lives, but rather, the internet is evolving to become an integral part of peoples everyday lives. The fact that mobile devices accompany them at all times have made this change possible.
Online consumers want brands to provide services that fit with their lifestyle. Most importantly, they want brands to listen to them and their comments where ever they are posted whether on a social network page, company website or micro-blog. More and more, consumers are expecting brands to improve their knowledge in specific areas and to connect them with other similar-minded brand users. To drive brand perception, it is now crucial that brands provide online services that services the needs of modern consumers when they want to engage a brand. For younger, more socially engaged consumers, this means entertaining them online with content and services in addition to driving increased knowledge around a brand.
S T R U C T U R A L
T R E N D
1 :
Social and entertainment leading the growth of internet activity globally; Broadband intensive activities are also growing strongly, such as video and VOIP; Blogging is in decline as we see a shift from text based forms of social interaction into Real-Time (see later trend) Web 1.0 is declining: Portals, news and information sites and instant messenger are all in decline Search is showing a slight fall at the global level, indicating a rise in social media platforms as consumers entry point onto the web as well as the rise of using social media as an editorial layer. (i.e. filtering content through likes, tweets, recommendations, etc. as oppose to search algorithms)
Internet Activities participated in the last month. Changes in penetration. (% point change of Internet users globally, Wave 1 July 2009 - Wave 5 June 2011)
The gap between market leader and laggard is growing in all markets
80% Wave 1 (Difference Between Leader and Lagard) 70% Wave 5 (Difference Between Leader and Lagard) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Looking at a range of internet activities, we can see the difference between leading and trailing markets in terms of penetration is growing in 11 out of 16 activities; Many of these behaviours are social media, open platforms, that require little infrastructure and no payment; The open, consumer driven nature of social media has enabled enthusiastic markets, who are generally newer to the internet, to adopt and use at a mass scale; The large growth in variance in instant messaging is due to a massive decline in IM usage in many markets; Only webmail and internet banking show significant falls in variance thanks to infrastructure investments in these services as well as their ubiquity across the world; In summary, the internet is not creating a mono-culture of information and behaviour as some predicted at the outset. Instead, the cultural fragmentation that existed offline before the internet now exists online and is visible in the divergence of online attitudes and behaviour across the world.
Which of the following have you done online in the past month?. Gap between the leading market and the last. (% difference in users globally, Wave 1 July 2009 - Wave 5 June 2011)
Purchase a product online in the past month versus an aggregate score of Manage a Social Network, Write a Blog, Comment in a Forum, Upload a Video, Use a Microblog (% penetration by country. Wave 5 June 2011)
Impact
Growing differentiation between markets, creates opportunities for local players
Online influencers will increasingly emerge from outside the English language internet
S T R U C T U R A L
T R E N D
2 :
Internet users can give us a good idea of the future purchases and Internet behaviour by telling us what they think their favourite Internet access device will be in a years time. A year from now, consumers say that mobile devices combine may nearly equal PC/Laptops as peoples preferred Internet access device.
Which of the following is your favourite device to access the Internet? Now / One year from now (% of Internet users globally, Wave 5)
Mobile Internet has Already Exploded Globally and Impacting in Home Usage
70% Asia Pacific Europe 60% Latin America
North America
50% Whilst Travelling or Roaming 23%
At home 33%
40%
20%
10% At Work 17% 0% Wave1 Wave2 Wave3 Wave4 Wave5 (% of mobile internet users globally, Wave 5) Which of the following have you done on the internet via your mobile phone in the past six months? Browsed the internet (% of internet users globally, Wave 5)
Asia Pacific
Europe
Mobile internet usage is growing globally largely thanks to the increasing use of mobile applications or apps that take fulladvantage of enhancements in user interface in recent years. Internet users in the APAC region still lead in terms of the proportion of mobile users that are downloading apps on the mobile phones just as they lead the world in internet usage on mobiles.
Here as in other areas, we are seeing a regional divergence in app downloads with an increasing share of mobile users in APAC downloading apps while the share in LATAM markets is stagnant.
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0% Wave1
Wave2
Wave3
Wave4
Wave5
Which of the following actions have you performed on your mobile phone in the past month? - Installed an application (% of internet users globally, Wave 5)
Brands must have a multi-platform strategy: website, mobile site and applications are a must Packaged platforms reintroduce barriers: Mobile and tablets are not open consumer driven platforms. This is an opportunity for brands, who have the connections and budgets to gain access
Impact
Packaged platforms demand that brands think about creating content. This is particularly true as internet connected TVs become the norm
Online influencers will increasingly emerge from outside the English language internet
LEAN-BACK: THE RISE OF VIDEO ENTERTAINMENT ONLINE REAL-TIME SOCIAL MEDIA: TRANSFORMING INTERACTION FACEBOOK FATIGUE: THE GROWING PAINS OF A GLOBAL PLATFORM THE SOCIAL BRAND A RENAISSANCE FOR PROFESSIONAL MEDIA
ONE WORLD: MANY INTERNETS THE POST PC ERA: BREAKING THE MOUSE BARRIER
B E H A V I O U R
T R E N D
25 to 34
57% 55%
35 to 44
43% 44%
45 to 54
30% 35%
55 to 64
23% 26%
Globally, younger internet users are much more active in consuming content online. However, most of the content that they and older users are enjoying is not user-generated content but is professionally produced content such as full-length movies and TV shows. These same consumers are also willing to pay for this content, but the hurdle has been the slow development of digital content distribution channels and models. This is changing, however, and promises huge rewards for content owners as consumers consume more and more content online.
51% 49%
47% 42% 40% 31% 31% 31% 25% 23% 22% 19% 14% 9%
39% 44%
43% 31% 35% 25% 25% 27% 20% 20% 19% 18% 13% 8%
29% 33%
35% 22% 29% 17% 17% 22% 16% 15% 12% 13% 9% 6%
25% 29%
27% 16% 27% 11% 11% 18% 11% 14% 7% 7% 6% 3%
17% 20%
19% 10% 24% 7% 7% 15% 9% 11% 5% 4% 4% 2%
Which of the following have you done online in the past month? (% of Internet users globally by age group, Wave 5)
50%
40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
The difference between the newly industrialised countries of Brazil, India, China, and Russia and the advance Western economies of the EU 5 and USA in terms of online content consumption perfectly illustrate the divergence that is occurring between all the different internet markets across the world. In general, internet users in emerging markets consume much more content online. There are, of course, multiple factors that contribute to this in each market, but one of the universal factors is the relative underdevelopment of traditional media markets in the emerging countries. As a result, the quality of online content often surpasses that which is available through traditional channels in many markets.
Which of the following have you done on the Internet in the past month? (% of Internet users in each region, Wave 5)
16 to 24 45 to 54
66% 67% 63% 56% 53% 48% 42%
25 to 34 55 to 64
35 to 44 Market Average
This index chart reveals the proportions of the Internet population in each country that would not consider paying for online content in Wave 5. It also shows how averse to buying online content each age group is compared to the overall Internet population. The key factor we see is that older Internet users are generally much less likely buy content online.
+ 100 -
Spain
France
Germany
Italy
UK
USA
Brazil
India
Russia
China
Which of the following would you consider paying to access online?- None of the above (answer options) (% of Internet users in each market)
Impact
Disconnect between the developed media and content markets in US, UK and Europe and the consumer demand for content in the emerging markets. Content producers should look at the global opportunity Massive opportunity for brands to build global content strategy
B E H A V I O U R
T R E N D
60%
+40% +2%
The first generation of the Internet focused on the new ways that everyone could create and publish content. As the Internet has evolved, internet users have moved more to the consumption and retransmission of content rather than producing it themselves. This is evident when we look at the fastest growing internet activities and those with the highest penetration. Consumption of video clips on platforms like YouTube and Dailymotion are among the most popular internet activities. Microblogging and social networking are the first and second fastest social media activities. So much of the activity on these platforms is retransmission of content, retweeting, re-posting of video clips, etc. and so little is the actual creation of content. This presents great opportunities for professional content creators to harness social channels to spread their content.
50%
+9%
40%
+24% +4% +62% +6% +10%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Which of the following have you done online in the past month? (% of Internet users globally; Wave 1 (September 2009) to Wave 5 (June 2011)
While we have seen that penetration growth in social networking is consistent across all Waves and regions, when we look at micro-blogging, we see a much different story. Micro-blogging growth has grown significantly in the BRIC markets while stagnating at less than 10% penetration among internet users in the advanced markets of the EU 5 and USA. This trend further illustrates the divergence in online behaviour between markets and shows how real-time social media is increasing in emerging markets while blogs, as we will see in the next slide, are not growing at all.v
What have you done on the internet in the past month? (% of internet users worldwide)
How often do you update your micro-blog status? vs. Which of the following have you done on your micro-blog in the past month? (% of internet users worldwide)
Real-time is moving the emphasis away from creating content to transmitting other peoples content
Shifts the focus from brands to create rather than engage consumers to create
Impact
Transmitter culture makes journalists, media owners, content producers and brands more relevant in the online economy
B E H A V I O U R
T R E N D
FACEBOOK FATIGUE
30%
25%
As expected, Facebook is the fastest growing social network across the 16 original GWI markets since Wave 1 in July 2009. The Chinese social networks of RenRen and Qzone are the most striking, however, and illustrate the vast market potential that China offers not just in social networking but across the entire internet. LinkedIn is an interesting social networking that has grown substantially since Wave 1, particularly because it is a social network developed around a specific type of real-life network, the professional network.
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Which of the following have you done online in the past month? Managed a social network profile (% change in in active social networkers by platform globally Wave 1 to Wave 5)
One of the biggest surprises that we see across the world is the decline in social network penetration among younger users in certain markets such as Brazil, India, and the UK.
In other markets, however, such as Spain, South Korea, and China, social network penetration has seen strong growth across all age groups. In general, the middle age groups are growing across all countries, and in many countries, they are the fastest growing age segments. Moving forward, it will be interesting to examine whether the decreasing penetration of social networking in younger age segments is an indicator of future trends for other age groups.
Mexico
Brazil Canada Australia
23.6%
-10.0% 0.0% 4.8%
69.0%
0.0% -1.6% 3.3%
71.4%
15.1% 6.5% 29.7%
58.3%
28.9% -8.3% 36.7%
121.1%
47.4% 31.8% 38.9%
Which of the following have you done online in the past month? Managed a social network profile (% change in active social networking penetration by market)
Between Wave1 (July 2009) and Wave 5 (June 2011), there has been a large level of decline in contribution and active participation into Facebook The hype suggests that with Facebook always growing its user base, it is quickly becoming the global social, communication, content and increasingly purchasing platform. However our research points to a different story. Over time users have began to contribute less and are increasingly passive. This raises questions on the quality of user data that often underpins huge valuation figures. It also raises questions on whether brands should vest everything in Facebook pages. This change suggests they need to diversify This decline is most marked in young college educated Facebook users in the US who were the original adopters of Facebook. This allows to forecast a plateau in usage that will spread into other demographics and markets
Facebook users: Social Network Behaviour / Actions in the past month (% change in active social networking penetration from Wave 1 (July 2009 to June 2011)
Its not all about Facebook A decline in contribution raises questions over whether brands would be better building a more multi-platform social offering to maximise social engagement, particularly in US and EU5
Impact
Facebooks valuation is largely based on quality of the data and the ability to target consumers based on this data. However active sharing of data is in decline. Most users are increasingly passive. This fact strongly questions $100bn valuation Facebooks growing pains, mirror wider trends in global differentiation. Emerging markets will drive the user growth
B E H A V I O U R
T R E N D
16 to 24
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
Entertain you
55%
49%
45%
38%
38%
55%
55%
58%
60%
64%
The things that consumers want from their brands change with age in ways that are more or less intuitive. Older consumers much prefer that brand keep them informed and improve their knowledge, while younger consumers want to be entertained in addition to improve their knowledge and connecting them with people. This generation gap illustrates the differing brand expectations that social engagement create.
49%
43%
38%
36%
39%
Be part of your daily routine Provide you with interesting real life experiences Keep you informed on the product and the company Help you organise your life
45%
45%
43%
42%
38%
31%
32%
28%
23%
20%
28%
33%
38%
43%
43%
24%
29%
33%
33%
29%
13%
14%
18%
24%
28%
How would you like a brand to act towards you? (% of global internet users by age)
Consumers around the world still value branded websites more than any other form of online marketing and branding techniques. Social marketing techniques are gaining traction, however, and liking a brand or product on a social network is popular among consumers in all regions in a relative sense.
Thinking about all the ways in which you can interact with a brand or company online, which have you done in the past month? (% of global internet users by age)
Consumers are not bothered about engaging with brands in a two-way conversation. What they want is simply to be listened to when they need the brand and for the brand to make their products and services readily available where they are, not where the brand wants them to be. Creating content is also important, especially for younger internet users as we have seen previously. Consumers react well to high quality branded content that is entertaining and engaging.
Wave5
Wave4
Wave3
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Which of the following marketing activities would improve your opinion of the participating brand? (% of global internet users by age)
Social branded channels are close to matching brand websites in reach Social media provides a new medium for brands to engage consumers, but brands must know the rules of engagement and identify what consumers want from them on these platforms
Impact
Their is increasing demand for branded content. This is a result of the growing demand for a lean back experience and a result of the transmitter culture. Brands need a content strategy. The line between produced content and advertising will disappear online The crucial aspect of social consumer engagement is to ensure that consumers feel that their voice is heard online. This doesnt necessitate constant two-way conversation but requires brands to be attentive when that conversation is wanted
B E H A V I O U R
T R E N D
LEAN BACK
25%
Traditional news sources still dominate news delivery across all age groups at a global level. For young adults, news websites are most likely to be their first source of news about a particular event, but older internet users still rely on TV news. Interestingly, social networks are more likely to be the first source of news for 16 to 24 year olds than are newspapers. A growing trend, accelerated by the use of social channels by traditional news sources, is the trend for users to get their news from a traditional source but then to follow up via social channels in an attempt to get the most up-to-date information possible.
16 to 24 25 to 34
20%
35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64
15%
10%
5%
0%
In the last major news event you heard about, what was the first source of information? (% of global internet users)
Even for highly engaged social media users traditional news sources are still the main channel through which they get breaking news. The importance of news websites provides leverage for the argument that news organisations should focus on digital content distribution and business models as many have done in recent months. Internet users still very much value traditional news sources, especially when they act as not only as a reporter of news but also as a curator of social news content; integrating old media with new media means that traditional news organisations have even greater opportunities than they had previously.
Radio
Newspaper
News website
Microblog update
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
In the last major news event you heard about, what was the first source of information? (% of global internet users)
Daily bloggers
9%
17%
12%
Global Average
7% 9% 19%
15%
26%
24% How much time do you spend watching TV during a typical day? (% of internet users by segment)
Social and online must be integrated with offline strategy The internet will not replace traditional media, traditional media will distribute through internet channels
Impact
The internet is becoming more like traditional media. Packaged platforms, applications etc enable traditional format with traditional advertising models
E X P L O R E
T H E
D A T A
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