Aircraft protection heats up

MAN-PORTABLE SHOULDER-FIRED INFRAREDguided surface-to-air missiles have been the primary cause of helicopter and aircraft combat losses since the rst gulf war in 1990. With the proliferation of more advanced SAMs and the advent of more advanced IR staring-array seekers, more sophisticated infrared countermeasure (IRCM) systems are needed. And since the U.S. began the global war on terrorism, the growing number of opponents and increased weapons funding have added to fears of MANPADS (manportable air defense systems) attacks on commercial airliners. Improved IRCM systems are especially needed for low-ying helicopters and xed-wing transport aircraft, as most MANPADS have a range of 10,000 ft of altitude or less. Low and slow aircraft are especially vulnerable on takeoff and landing, a particular problem for airliners using urban airports, where terrorists can easily hide in friendly neighborhoods. Fighters and fast jets are less vulnerable, as they typically take off and land at secure military airelds in rear areas or aircraft carriers, and y at higher altitudes. The new IR-guided SAMs have allaspect attack capability and improved immunity to aircraft-deployed ares. Traditional IRCMs such as BAE Systems AN/ALQ-144(V), with almost 3,000 still in U.S. service, all use wideangle heat lamps to counter missile seekers, but do not radiate enough energy in all directions to allow all-aspect jamming, and jammer radiation is often blocked by the helicopters fuselage. The new generation of directed IRCMs (DIRCMs), targeted by longer range and more sophisticated missile warning systems (MWSs), point jamming energy directly onto an incoming missile seeker. The next generation, currently in development, will not only shrink the bulky laser jamheads now serving on large aircraft but will also reduce costs and add better multiband lasers, which can provide deception jamming. A DIRCM system works by rst detecting missile launch with an MWS as the incoming missile body heats up through air friction and emits both IR and UV radiation from its rocket motor. Next the DIRCM directs its pointer onto the missile, which it continues to track. It then uses a low-power laser (or directable IR arc lamp) in the jamhead to jam the missile seeker, causing the missile to break lock and miss. Unlike a dumb IR arc lamp, a lowpower laser must match the incoming missiles operational wavelength, meaning a multiband laser is necessary to protect against various threats (such as the Stinger, SA-7, SA-14/16/18). The laser is then modulated to jam the incoming missile. Todays lasers do not have the power to blow up a missile, as in the movies, but they may damage the seeker in addition to spoong it.

LAIRCM
Today there is only one military DIRCM program seeing substantial production and funding, Northrop Grummans AN/ AAQ-24(V) LAIRCM (large aircraft IRCM), an Air Force program developed for troop transports such as the C-17 C5 and C-130. BAE Systems AN/ALQ212(V) ATIRCM and Northrops AAQ24(V) DIRCM systems are both optimized for helicopters and smaller aircraft. As DIRCM production has wound down, LAIRCM has become a huge program, and has proceeded so far without a hitch. A $2 billion-$6 billion production value for LAIRCM was originally mentioned by the Air Force, which sounded outlandish. But even a few years ago, a straight-line projection from current technology did result in this number (1,000 transports at $3 million per suite is $3 billion right there), assuming LAIRCM suite unit costs remain high and the services have the money to fund 1,000 systems at these high prices. Before the current war we thought this unlikely; now we are convinced. The services clearly have the need, and we do not see system costs coming down. But what will really result in huge

Airman 1st Class Wesley Brown installs a LAIRCM sensor on a C-17 Globemaster III. Almost 3,000 ALQ-144s are in U.S. service today. (USAF photo by Abner Guzman.)

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66 in 2004, the Army again planned at least 1,000 ATIRCM builds. But the service has now postponed production again, to wait for development of an alllaser system (ATIRCM began with directable IR arc lamps). Operational testing is planned for this year, with elding beginning in 2010. But Northrop Grumman is now so far ahead in the DIRCM market that ATIRCM is once again at risk of replacement. For now, we will be optimistic, and forecast fairly healthy production in a few years, but this could be canceled at any point.
Crews of an Egyptian ranger battalion give a demonstration during Operation Desert Shield. The soldiers standing are holding SA-7 MANPADS.

Low-cost DIRCMs
If not LAIRCM (which would create a monopoly in the world DIRCM market), what is probably more likely to replace ATIRCM is one of a new generation of smaller, less expensive DIRCM systems now in development, originally as company-funded programs. Raytheon rather cleverly leveraged its AIM-9X Sidewinder missile seeker to develop Scorpion and Quiet Eyes, lowcost DIRCM systems intended for light helicopters and other small platforms, potentially including fast jets. Low cost and light weight were the principles behind the thousands of ALQ-144s procured worldwide. The new-generation equipment such as Nemesis DIRCM, LAIRCM, and ATIRCM are too expensive for such a broad procurement. Based on proven components, there is a potential market for thousands of

production funding is LAIRCMs melding with DIRCM, and its use on smaller platforms. A good comparison is with U.S. past-generation IRCMs. The AN/ ALQ-157(V) for large aircraft saw 800 systems produced, while the ALQ-144 for helicopters saw over 6,000 systems. Our LAIRCM forecasts are now including smaller and smaller platforms. The next few years will see accelerated procurements to equip nearly every large U.S. aircraft anywhere near the front lines, but will now include many smaller aircraft and large helicopters as well. International sales are also beginning, with head-of-state aircraft systems ordered by Morocco and Saudi Arabia, and Australia requesting 12 systems for its C-130Js (making it the rst country besides Britain and the U.S. to procure LAIRCM for non-head-of-state aircraft). In all, we see production worth over $0.5 billion a year for at least a decade. In terms of technology development, LAIRCM Phase II is adding the next generation missile warning system (NexGen MWS), and the Guardian laser tracking assembly to replace the Phase I small laser tracking assembly. Guardian will be smaller, more reliable, and cheaper, incorporating Fiberteks Viper laser. Phase I C-17 equipment will be replaced with Phase II as it becomes available, with the older equipment going on C-130s. In February 2008, the Air Force awarded $77 million for 37 Guardian kits. NexGen MWS is planned to replace the AN/AAR-54(V) missile warning sys-

tem for Nemesis DIRCM and LAIRCM (MWS funding is not included in our DIRCM forecasts), which will improve the probability of declaring threat missiles and increase the probability of detection in high clutter environments. In October 2008, Northrops two-color IR sensor technology won over Lockheeds one-color seeker (based on the F-22s AN/AAR-56), when the Navy awarded Northrop a $5.5-million contract to begin production. A different version of Northrops system is being developed for the Navys JATAS program; another is in production for Marine Corps CH46 and CH-53D/E helicopters.

ATIRCM questions
The other major U.S. DIRCM program, which preceded, and was supposed to be much bigger than, LAIRCM, is BAE Systems AN/ALQ-212(V) ATIRCM (advanced threat IRCM). It was meant to be the Armys next-generation system, supplanting the ALQ-144 on thousands of helicopters. ATIRCM had always been important, but when the Army took responsibility for future triservice missile warning systems in 1995, ATIRCM/CMWS became huge. Unfortunately, the other services slowly pulled out, as the program suffered long delays and cost overruns, leaving the Army alone in planning major procurements. By early this decade, the requirement was down to a few hundred systems for Army helicopters. Following cancellation of the RAH-

Operational testing of the BAE Sytems ATIRCM/CMWS is scheduled to begin this year.
AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2009

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small DIRCMs. The U.S. already spends more than $0.5 billion annually to equip large platforms with a DIRCM; another $100 million a year might allow hundreds of smaller platforms to have a modern system. But there are currently no denite plans or contracts for a major procurement. Quiet Eyes is essentially the same DIRCM system as Scorpion but without the missile warning sensors, intended for the Air Force. It is planned as a lower cost jamhead for systems like LAIRCM, and as such has more direct competition from Northrop Grumman and BAE Systems. On the other hand, AIM-9X components are relatively inexpensive, and Raytheon could have an advantage here as well. Scorpion and Quiet Eyes have many interchangeable components, and future procurements may lead in unexpected directions. But we see a good future for lower cost systems, and Raytheon has both a head start and a very solid production base already with its AIM-9X. They could enter the DIRCM market in a big way. Northrop Grumman is working with Raytheon at integrating Quiet Eyes with LAIRCM, under the CELAMP (cost-effective light aircraft missile protection) project. There are no denite production plans, but CELAMP has a chance to be the pioneering system for smaller/ slower platforms, with funding split between the two companies. Suggested platforms include Army and Navy helicopters and Air Force aircraft. The primary CELAMP goals are to demonstrate the ability of the Quiet Eyes turret to handle the higher power laser associated with the AAQ-24, and to successfully integrate the turret with the Northrop Grumman processor, resulting in a readily available lightweight IRCM jammer for the Army and Navy, while meeting the Air Force requirement for the next-generation IRCM jammer. In April 2008, Quiet Eyes completed successful USAF static testing. According to Raytheon, the jamhead had a 100% success rate in defeating incoming IR-seeking missiles when paired with an AAR-54 MWS and the Viper laser. Flight testing will begin this year. CELAMP is scheduled to be completed in September, with production 24
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possible for Army and Navy helicopters starting in 2011 and Air Force cargo aircraft in 2012. But Raytheon is not alone in realizing the potential market for a small, inexpensive DIRCM. In July 2007, ITT Electronic Systems successfully demonstrated its own integrated laser pointer/ tracker on a UH-60 Blackhawk. In September 2008, ITT ight tested the new system aboard a UH-60 at ranges from 2,300 to13,100 ft and speeds up to 75 kt. Integrated with an IR MWS the small, lightweight system demonstrated threat detection, handoff of threat to a pointer tracker, tracking of the threat by the pointer tracker, and application of the countermeasure laser against the threat, according to the company.

Slow going for Navy DIRCM

In September 2008, the Navy issued a draft RFP for JATAS (joint allied threat awareness system), a next-generation IR-sensor missile warning system, with a two-company technology development period planned to begin late this year, to be followed by a downselect to a single company for system design and development (SDD) in FY11. Although only JATAS MWS development is funded, the Navy still refers to the overall program as Assault DIRCM, which may eventually be procured for almost 1,000 small and large helicopters, and the MV-22. IOC for the full DIRCM system was originally planned for FY15. An SDD contract was expected to be awarded last summer, but continuing delays have occurred. In July 2008, Alliant Techsystems (ATK) announced it would partner with BAE Systems (with ATK as prime) to bid for JATAS. The Navy also eventually plans a Strike DIRCM program, possibly to develop a podded family of systems for fast jets. Strike DIRCM is also unfunded, though plans called for it to debut with a third-generation MWS with four to six two-color staring sensors providing a full sphere of coverage. There would be one or two lasers and a compact pointer/ tracker for the DIRCM itself. Teal Group believes both Strike and Assault DIRCM will continue to be delayed but will likely eventually see production, as the Navy needs something.

But Northrop Grummans suites have swallowed up almost all world procurements of DIRCM systems to date, and its eventual bid for any Assault DIRCM SDD contract is sure to be strong (and based heavily on the AAQ-24). So the Navys eventual system could be very similar to the Air Forces LAIRCM. Certainly, BAE Systems constantly delayed ATIRCM will not be expected as the favorite, unless as part of a teaming arrangement. Assault DIRCM would be an excellent candidate for any of the new low-cost systems in development. In any case, since Assault DIRCM will not see any funding until FY10 at the earliest, we do not forecast production until FY15 at best, unless the Navy buys LAIRCM essentially off-the-shelf. Until threats change, there is really no need for Strike DIRCM for fast jets, and we do not see it becoming more than a technology development program in our forecast period.

Commercial IRCMs
In February 2003, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) envisioned retrotting 6,800 U.S. commercial aircraft with DIRCM units for a relatively small investment of $7 billion-$10 billion. But many of the commercial DIRCM development programs have been conducting nal testing with no production planned. The Dept. of Homeland Security has spent at least $230 million since 2004 on contracts with Northrop Grumman, BAE Systems, United Airlines, FedEx, and others, and Northrop has reportedly reduced system cost to below $1 million per aircraft (which we highly doubt). But a eet-wide procurement would still cost more than $6 billion that airlines simply do not want to spend in times of increased fuel costs, fewer passengers, and now a deep recession. Programs included Northrop Grummans Guardian, mounted in a conformal pod under the aircraft. By mid2008, Guardian had completed 10,000 hr of actual ying time aboard nine FedEx cargo aircraft, but the company began dissolving the program in April 2008 when DHS funding ended. BAE Systems JetEye is based on ATIRCM and the Navys earlier TADIRCM development program, and is also

IRCM FUNDING FORECAST RDT&E+procurement available to the U.S.

(FY09 $millions) $1,500

1,200

900

600

300

work on a principle similar to the electromagnetic pulse (EMP) from nuclear weapons that can knock out electronics, although its frequency would not affect aircraft and is within personnel safety standards set by the U.S. government. Its basically a mini-EMP pulse, and it will scramble electronics, according to Raytheon. The company proposed follow-up tests for this year. Overall, commercial DIRCM funding has now proven that functional options exist, even relatively affordable options, but there is not yet anyone willing to pay for the massive undertaking of a eetwide commercial airliner procurement.
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

FY08

FYO9

FY10

FY11

FY12

Market analysis
Northrop Grumman got an early jump on the market with its Nemesis DIRCM, in production for the U.K. since early 2001. The opportunity for the system to prove itself has paid off, as large production contracts continue for LAIRCM. BAE Systems ATIRCM has seen constant delays, and even a best-case forecast now gives them only a minority share of the next 10 years market. But there is also a very good chance that much or all of the Armys eventual procurement for helicopters will go for a totally new system, perhaps one of the low-cost developments by Raytheon or ITT Electronic Systems. Thus our market share projection looks a bit deceiving. It forecasts the Army sticking with ATIRCM for most of its future needs, and the small Available share only includes moderate procurements of undetermined low-cost DIRCMs for multiple users, as well as future (and delayed) Navy funding. But we believe there is at least a 40% chance that the Army will go for a new low-cost system for most of its helicopters, or at least a new competition. That would mean the near-term market will be dominated by Northrop Grumman, but in ve years half the market is up for grabs. In either case, our funding forecast shows the overall market more than doubling over just the next few years, meaning there will be lots of new research and procurement funding to go around. David L. Rockwell Teal Group drockwell@tealgroup.com
AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2009

ALQ-144/-157

DIRCM

LAIRCM

ATIRCM

Low Cost Sys

Ass/Strike

Commercial

housed in a pod under the aircraft. In mid-2008, JetEye completed the rst ight of a functional DIRCM on a commercial ight, mounted on a Boeing 767-200 from New York to Los Angeles. Funding for continued testing was reportedly in place for the short term. Numerous creative ideas have also been tested to provide protection at a cost lower than that of outtting every airliner with a full DIRCM suite, but none has succeeded. The DHSs Project Chloe considered having one or more

Global Hawk UAVs loiter at 65,000 ft above an airport to detect missile launches and direct a jamming laser. But each UAV would cost at least $123 million with development costs, and each airport may need three. In mid-2008, Raytheon completed sensor testing of its Vigilant Eagle system, which would link a net of passive IR sensors around an airport to detect any threats, then use a beam of microwave energy to scramble a threatening missiles guidance system. The microwaves

IRCM FUNDING FORECAST RDT&E+procurement available to the U.S.

(FY09 $millions) $100%

80

60

40

20

FY08

FYO9

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

Northrup Grumman

BAE Systems

Available

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