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IndependentStatistics&Analysis

U.S. Energy Information


Administration

September2011

ShortTermEnergyOutlook
September7,2011Release

Highlights

EIAseconomicgrowthassumptionshavebeenloweredsubstantially
comparedwithlastmonthsOutlook.ThisforecastassumesthatU.S.realgross
domesticproduct(GDP)growsby1.5percentthisyearand1.9percentnext
yearcomparedwith2.4percentand2.6percent,respectively,intheprevious
Outlook.WorldoilconsumptionweightedrealGDPgrowsby3.1percentand
3.8percentin2011and2012,respectively,comparedwith3.4percentand4.1
percentinthelastOutlook.Withweakereconomicgrowthandlower
petroleumconsumptiongrowth,EIAexpectstheU.S.averagerefiner
acquisitioncostofcrudeoiltorisefromanaverageof$100perbarrelin2011to
$103perbarrelin2012,comparedwithanincreaseto$107perbarrelin2012in
lastmonthsOutlook.

Regulargradegasolineretailpricesfellby40centspergallonfromtheirpeak
thisyearof$3.97pergallononMay9to$3.57pergallononJune27followinga
declineincrudeoilprices.GasolineretailpricesstabilizedinJulyandAugust
withweeklyretailpricesaveragingbetween$3.58pergallonand$3.71per
gallon,butareprojectedtofalltoanaverage$3.47pergalloninthefourth
quarter2011afterrefinersswitchproductionfromsummergradegasolineto
lowercostwintergradegasoline.

NaturalgasworkinginventoriesendedAugust2011at3.0trillioncubicfeet
(Tcf),about5percent,or144billioncubicfeet(Bcf),belowthe2010endof
Augustlevel.EIAexpectsthatworkingnaturalgasinventorieswillapproach
lastyearshighlevelsbytheendofthisyearsinjectionseason.Theprojected
HenryHubnaturalgasspotpriceaverages$4.20permillionBritishthermal
units(MMBtu)in2011,$0.18perMMBtulowerthanthe2010average.EIA
expectsthenaturalgasmarkettotightenmoderatelyin2012,withtheHenry
Hubspotpriceincreasingtoanaverageof$4.30perMMBtu.

Globalcoalsupplydisruptions,particularlyinAustralia,andgrowingdemand
inChinahavehelpedboostU.S.coalexportsforthefirsthalfof2011toa29
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2011
1

yearhighof54millionshorttons(MMst),anincreaseof35percentcompared
tothesameperiodin2010anddouble2009levels.EIAexpectscoalexportsto
begintoweaken,totaling45MMstoverthesecondhalfof2011and87MMstin
2012.

GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuels
CrudeOilandLiquidFuelsOverview.Theprojectedpaceofglobaloildemand
growthislowerinthismonthsOutlookduetolessoptimisticassumptionsabout
globaleconomicgrowth.Thedownwardrevisiontooildemandgrowthrelieves
someofthepotentialoilmarkettightnessthathadbeenimpliedbypreviousforecast
balances.Nonetheless,withoutasignificantchangeintheoutlookforsupply,EIA
expectsmarketstodrawuponinventoriestomeetatleastsomeofthegrowthin
consumptionoverthefourthquarterof2011andbeyond.In2012,oildemandgrowth
fromcountriesoutsideoftheOrganizationforEconomicCooperationand
Development(OECD)isprojectedtooutpacethegrowthinsupplyfromproducers
thatarenotmembersoftheOrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries
(OPEC),implyinganeedforOPECproducerstoincreasetheiroutputtobalancethe
market.
Theinherentuncertaintyoftherevisedpriceforecastisevidencedbythevarious
shockstooilsupply,demand,andpricesthathaveoccurredthisyear.Upsiderisksto
thecrudeoilpriceoutlookremain,particularlyduetoongoingunrestinoil
producingregionsandthepossibilitythatnonOECDdemandwillbemoreresilient
thanexpected.Yetdownsiderisksarguablypredominate,asfearspersistaboutthe
rateofglobaleconomicrecovery,contagioneffectsofthedebtcrisisintheEuropean
Union,andotherfiscalissuesfacingnationalandsubnationalgovernments.Onthe
supplyside,thepossibilityremainsthatLibyamaybeabletorampupoilproduction
andexportssoonerthananticipated.
GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuelsConsumption.EIAexpectsworldcrudeoiland
liquidfuelsconsumptionwillcontinuegrowingfromitsrecordhighlevelsin2010,
albeitlessrobustlythaninthepreviousOutlook,duetoareductionofapproximately
0.3percentagepointsintheglobaloilconsumptionweightedeconomicgrowth
forecastforboth2011and2012.EIAexpectsworldconsumptiontogrowbyabout1.4
millionbarrelsperday(bbl/d)inboth2011and2012to89.6millionbbl/din2012a
downwardrevisionofover200thousandbbl/dfromlastmonthsOutlook(World
LiquidFuelsConsumptionChart).Thedemandforecastisalsoadivergenttaleof
tworegions:consumptioninOECDmembercountriesisprojectedtodeclineinboth
2011and2012,whileChinaandotheremergingeconomiesaccountforallofthe
projectedgrowthinoilconsumptionthrough2012.
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2011
2

NonOPECSupply.EIAprojectsthatnonOPECcrudeoilandliquidfuelsproduction
willgrowby500thousandbbl/din2011and770thousandbbl/din2012,toa2012
averageof53.1millionbbl/d(NonOPECCrudeOilandLiquidFuelsProduction
GrowthChart).ThelargestsourcesofexpectedgrowthinnonOPECoilproduction
overtheforecastperiodareBrazil,Canada,China,Colombia,Kazakhstan,andthe
UnitedStates,withaverageannualgrowthineachcountryofover100thousand
bbl/d.Incontrast,Russianoilproductionisexpectedtodeclinebyroughly120
thousandbbl/dnextyear,whileNorthSeaproductiondeclinesby130thousandbbl/d
in2011and110thousandbbl/din2012.EIAassumesthatYemenwillrecovermostof
itspredisruptionlevelsofproduction(240thousandbbl/d)earlynextyear,but
heightenedturmoilinSyriaandthepotentialformoresanctionsonthecountrys
energysectorintroduceyetanothersourceofpoliticalrisktothenonOPECoutlook.
OPECSupply.EIAexpectsOPECcrudeoilproductiontodeclinebyabout360
thousandbbl/din2011,inlargepartduetothesupplydisruptioninLibya.Though
thesituationinLibyaisdynamicandcircumstanceshavechangedconsiderablysince
lastmonthsOutlook,EIAiscontinuingtomaintainitsassumptionwithonlya
slightlyacceleratedtimetablethataboutonehalfofLibyaspredisruption
productionwillresumebytheendof2012.TherestorationofatleastsomeLibyan
productionisexpectedtocontributetoanoverallincreaseinOPECoutputof510
thousandbbl/din2012.EIAprojectsthatOPECsurpluscrudeoilproductioncapacity
willfallfrom4.0millionbbl/dattheendof2010to3.5millionbbl/dattheendof2011
(OPECSurplusCrudeOilProductionCapacityChart).ForecastOPECnoncrude
liquidsproduction,whichisnotsubjecttoproductiontargets,isexpectedtoincrease
by490thousandbbl/din2011andby440thousandbbl/din2012.
OECDPetroleumInventories.EIAexpectsthatOECDcommercialinventorieswill
declineslightlyinboth2011and2012.Daysofsupply(totalinventoriesdividedby
averagedailyconsumption)fallslightlybutremainrelativelyhighat58daysduring
thefourthquarterof2010,57daysduringthefourthquarter2011,and56daysduring
thefourthquarter2012(DaysofSupplyofOECDCommercialStocksChart).
CrudeOilPrices.WestTexasIntermediate(WTI)crudeoilspotpricesfellfroman
averageof$97perbarrelinJulyto$86perbarrelinAugust(WestTexasIntermediate
CrudeOilPriceChart).EIAhasrevisedtheprojectedoilpricepathsdownwardfrom
lastmonthsOutlook.EIAexpectsthattheU.S.refineraveragecrudeoilacquisition
costwillaverage$100perbarrelin2011and$103perbarrelin2012comparedwith
$100perbarreland$107perbarrelfor2011and2012,respectively,intheprevious
Outlook.

U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2011


3

ThecurrentpricediscountforWTIrelativetootherU.S.andworldcrudeoilsis
expectedtocontinueuntiltransportationbottlenecksrestrictingthemovementof
crudeoiloutofthemidcontinentregionarerelieved.Consequently,theprojected
averageU.S.refineracquisitioncostofcrudeoil,whichaveragedalmost$2.70per
barrelbelowWTIin2010,averagesabout$6perbarrelaboveWTIin2011and$8per
barrelaboveWTIin2012.

Energypriceforecastsarehighlyuncertain(MarketPricesandUncertaintyReport).
WTIfuturesforNovember2011deliveryoverthe5dayperiodendingSeptember1
averaged$88perbarrelandimpliedvolatilityaveraged40percent,establishingthe
lowerandupperlimitsofa95percentconfidenceintervalforthemarkets
expectationsofmonthlyaverageWTIpricesinNovemberof$67perbarreland$116
perbarrel,respectively.Impliedvolatility,ortheexpectationoffuturepricevolatility,
isupfromthe33percentimpliedvolatilityreportedinlastmonthsOutlookforthe
October2011contract.Lastyearatthistime,WTIforNovember2010delivery
averaged$75perbarrelandimpliedvolatilityaveraged32percent.The
correspondinglowerandupperlimitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$61
perbarreland$94perbarrel.

U.S.CrudeOilandLiquidFuels
U.S.LiquidFuelsConsumption.Totalconsumptionofliquidfuelsin2010grew410
thousandbbl/d,or2.2percent,thehighestrateofgrowthsince2004(U.S.LiquidFuels
ConsumptionGrowthChart).Incontrast,projectedtotalU.S.liquidfuels
consumptionin2011fallsby170thousandbbl/d(0.9percent).Motorgasoline
consumptionaccountsforalmostalltheprojecteddeclinefortheyear.
EIAexpectstotalliquidfuelsconsumptiontoincreaseby80thousandbbl/d(0.4
percent)to19.1millionbbl/din2012,downfromthe170thousandbbl/dincrease
projectedinthepreviousOutlookbecauseofthedownwardrevisionstotheU.S.
economicgrowthforecast.Projectedmotorgasolineconsumptionrisesby40
thousandbbl/d(0.5percent)ashighwaytravelincreasesmodestly,anddistillatefuel
consumptionincreasesby30thousandbbl/d(0.9percent)asgrowthinindustrial
activityandnonpetroleumimportscontinuestoslowasaresultofcontinuingweak
economicgrowthin2012.
U.S.LiquidFuelsSupplyandImports.Domesticcrudeoilproduction,which
increasedby110thousandbbl/din2010to5.5millionbbl/d,increasesbyafurther140
thousandbbl/din2011andby60thousandbbl/din2012(U.S.CrudeOilProduction
Chart),drivenbyincreasedoildirecteddrillingactivity,particularlyin
unconventionalshaleformations.
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2011
4

Liquidfuelnetimports(includingbothcrudeoilandrefinedproducts)fellfrom57
percentoftotalU.S.consumptionin2008to49percentin2010becauseofrising
domesticproductionandthedeclineinconsumptionduringtheeconomicdownturn.
EIAforecaststhatliquidfuelnetimportsshareoftotalconsumptionwilldecline
furtherto47percentinboth2011and2012.
U.S.Inventories.CommercialcrudeoilinventorylevelsendedAugust2011atan
estimated359millionbarrels,thesamelevelaslastyearbut29millionbarrelshigher
thantheprevious5yearaverageforthatmonth.Followingthecompletionofthe
releaseofabout31millionbarrelsofcrudeoilfromtheU.S.StrategicPetroleum
Reserve(SPR),commercialcrudeoilstocksareexpectedtoriseto364millionbarrels
bytheendofSeptember2011,34millionbarrelshigherthantheprevious5year
average.Commercialcrudeoilstocksaregraduallydrawndowntoneartheir5year
averagesbytheendof2012.
EIAexpectsrefinedproductinventoriestoremainclosetotheir5yearaverages
despitetherecentSPRrelease.TotalmotorgasolinestocksattheendofAugust2011
wereanestimated208millionbarrels,down13millionbarrelsfromlastyearbut2
millionbarrelsabovetheprevious5yearaverageforthatmonth.Distillatefueloil
stocksendedAugust2011atanestimated157millionbarrels,down13millionbarrels
fromthesametimelastyearbut7millionbarrelsabovetheprevious5yearaverage.
Projectedtotalmotorgasolineanddistillateinventoriesaverageabout1million
barrelsand7millionbarrelshigher,respectively,thantheirprevious5yearaverages
attheendof2011.
U.S.PetroleumProductPrices.EIAforecaststhattheannualaverageregulargrade
gasolineretailprice,whichaveraged$2.78pergallonin2010,willincreaseto$3.56
pergallonin2011,andaverage$3.54pergallonin2012.Theincreaseinretailprices
in2011reflectsnotonlythehighercostofcrudeoilbutalsochangesinaverageU.S.
refinerygasolinemargin(thedifferencebetweenrefinerywholesalegasolineprices
andtheaveragecostofcrudeoil)from$0.34pergallonin2010,to$0.50pergallonin
2011and$0.43pergallonin2012.
EIAexpectsthatonhighwaydieselfuelretailprices,whichaveraged$2.99pergallon
in2010,willaverage$3.85pergallonin2011and$3.87pergallonin2012.Projected
U.S.refinerydieselfuelmarginsincreasefromanaverageof$0.38pergallonin2010
to$0.65pergallonin2011,thenfalltoanaverageof$0.58pergallonin2012.
NaturalGas

U.S.NaturalGasConsumption.Projectednaturalgasconsumptionforelectricpower
generationfellfrom29.7Bcf/dinJulyto29.2Bcf/dinAugust,astheextreme
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2011
5

temperatures(411coolingdegreedaysinJuly)recededsomewhat(to350cooling
degreedaysinAugust).HurricaneIrene,laterdowngradedtoTropicalStormIreneas
itmoveduptheEastCoast,broughtwind,rain,andpoweroutagesneartheendof
themonth.

EIAexpectsthattotalnaturalgasconsumptionwillgrowby1.8percentto67.3billion
cubicfeetperday(Bcf/d)in2011(U.S.TotalNaturalGasConsumptionChart).
Growthintheindustrialandelectricpowersectorsaccountsformostofthegrowthin
totalconsumption,withexpectedincreasesin2011to18.5Bcf/d(2.1percent)and20.7
Bcf/d(2.4percent),respectively.Projectedtotalnaturalgasconsumptionincreases
0.6percentin2012to67.7Bcf/d.
U.S.NaturalGasProductionandImports.Marketednaturalgasproductionis
expectedtoaverage65.8Bcf/din2011,a4.0Bcf/d(6.4percent)increaseover2010.
ThemajorityofthisgrowthiscenteredintheonshoreproductionintheLower48
States,whichwillmorethanoffsetsteepprojecteddeclinesintheFederalGulfof
Mexico(GOM).ForecastGOMproductionfalls0.9Bcf/d(13.9percent)in2011.EIA
expectsthatoverallproductionwillcontinuetogrowin2012,butataslowerpace,
increasing1.1Bcf/d(1.7percent)toanaverageof66.9Bcf/d.
Drillingactivityhasbeenresilientdespitelowernaturalgasspotandfuturesprices.
AccordingtoBakerHughes,theAugust26rigcounthadreboundedto898active
drillingrigstargetingnaturalgas,upfrom866onMay20.Ifdrillingcontinuesto
increase,productioncouldgrowmorethanexpectedin2012.
Growingdomesticnaturalgasproductionhasreducedrelianceonnaturalgasimports
andcontributedtoincreasedexports.EIAexpectsthatpipelinegrossimportsof
naturalgaswillfallby4.1percentto8.7Bcf/dduring2011andbyanother3.8percent
to8.4Bcf/din2012.ProjectedU.S.importsofliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)fallfrom1.2
Bcf/din2010to1.0Bcf/dinboth2011and2012.PipelinegrossexportstoMexicoand
Canadaareexpectedtoaverage4.1Bcf/din2011and4.2Bcf/din2012,comparedwith
3.1Bcf/din2010.
U.S.NaturalGasInventories.OnAugust26,2011,workingnaturalgasinstorage
stoodat2,961Bcf,137BcfbelowlastyearslevelinlateAugust(U.S.WorkingNatural
GasinStorageChart).EIAexpectsthatinventories,thoughcurrentlylowerthanlast
year,willcomeclosetolastyearslevelstowardstheendofthe2011injectionseason,
reaching3.74TcfattheendofOctober2011.
U.S.NaturalGasPrices.TheHenryHubspotpriceaveraged$4.05perMMBtuin
August2011,37centslowerthantheJuly2011average(HenryHubNaturalGasPrice
Chart).ThismonthsOutlooklowersthe2011forecastby4centsto$4.20perMMBtu
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2011
6

andlowersthe2012forecastby11centsto$4.30perMMBtu.Theincreaseinprice
from2011to2012reflectssometighteninginsupplyasproductiongrowthslowsin
2012.
Uncertaintyaboutnaturalgaspricesislowerthisyearcomparedwithlastyearatthis
time(MarketPricesandUncertaintyReport).NaturalgasfuturesforNovember2011
delivery(forthe5dayperiodendingSeptember1,2011)averaged$4.07perMMBtu,
andtheaverageimpliedvolatilitywas34percent.Thelowerandupperboundsfor
the95percentconfidenceintervalforNovember2011contractsare$3.16perMMBtu
and$5.26perMMBtu.Atthistimelastyear,theNovember2010naturalgasfutures
contractaveraged$4.07perMMBtuandimpliedvolatilityaveraged48percent.The
correspondinglowerandupperlimitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$2.84
perMMBtuand$5.83perMMBtu.
Electricity

U.S.ElectricityConsumption.Althoughcumulativecoolingdegreedaysfor2011
throughAugustfortheentireUnitedStateswerejust2.8percenthigherthanthesame
periodin2010,someregionsexperiencedextremeweatherduringthepastfew
months.RecordheatinTexashasledtorecordsettingpowerdemandwhile
HurricaneIrenerecentlycausedwidespreadpoweroutagesintheNortheast.Overall,
EIAexpectsrelativelyflatgrowththisyearforU.S.retailsalesofelectricitytothe
residentialsector.

Electricitysalestotheindustrialsectorwere3.0percenthigherduringthefirsthalfof
2011comparedwiththesameperiodlastyear.However,aprojectedslowerrecovery
inmanufacturingfortheremainderofthisyearshouldtranslatetoloweryearover
yeargrowthinindustrialelectricitysalesof0.6percentduringthesecondhalf.EIA
expectstotalconsumptionofelectricityduring2011togrowby0.6percentfromlast
yearslevelandby0.2percentin2012(U.S.TotalElectricityConsumptionChart).

U.S.ElectricityGeneration.Alargenumberofunplannednuclearplantoutages
duringthespringof2011ledtothelowestsecondquarterlevelofnucleargeneration
since1999.EIAexpectsthattotalnucleargenerationfor2011willbe3.4percentlower
thanlastyearslevel.Incontrast,theshareofgenerationfueledbynaturalgas
continuestoincrease,spurredbyrelativelylowfuelcostscomparedwithcoaland
continuedwarmsummertemperatures.EIAexpectsthefuelsharefornaturalgasto
risefrom23.8percentin2010to24.2percentthisyearand24.9percentin2012(U.S.
ElectricityGenerationbyFuel,allSectorsChart).

U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2011


7

U.S.ElectricityRetailPrices.Retailpricesofelectricitytotheresidentialsector
duringthefirstsixmonthsofthisyearweregenerallyhigherthanthesameperiodin
2010.Growthinresidentialelectricitypricesshouldmoderateduringthesecondhalf.
EIAexpectsaverageU.S.residentialelectricitypricestoincreaseby2.3percentin2011
andby0.6percentin2012(U.S.ResidentialElectricityPricesChart).

Coal

U.S.CoalConsumption.EIAexpectsthatcoalconsumptionforelectricitygeneration
willdeclineby21millionshorttons(MMst)(2.1percent)in2011,astotalelectricity
generationrisesby0.4percentandgenerationfromnaturalgasincreasesbyalmost2
percent.Forecastcoalconsumptionintheelectricpowersectordeclinesanadditional
22MMst(2.3percent)in2012.

U.S.CoalSupply.EIAforecaststhatcoalproductionwillfallby2.2percentin2011
despiteasignificantincreaseincoalexports.CoalproductionintheWesternregion
declinedinthefirsthalfof2011by2.0percentcomparedtothesameperiodtheyear
before,whileproductionintheAppalachianandInteriorregionsincreasedby1.6
percentand5.6percent,respectively.EIAexpectscoalproductionwillremainflatin
2012(U.S.AnnualCoalProductionChart).

EIAexpectstotalcoalinventoriestofallby12percent(27MMst)in2011,anddecline
byanadditional2.5percent(4.9MMst)in2012(U.S.ElectricPowerSectorCoalStocks
Chart).

U.S.CoalTrade.U.S.coalexportsrosebyabout35percentduringthefirsthalfof
2011comparedwith2010.Thefirsthalfexportsof54MMstwerethehighestsince
1982,whenexportswere57MMst.EIAexpectsU.S.coalexportstoremainelevated
overthesecondhalfof2011,reachinganannualtotalof99MMst.ForecastU.S.coal
exportsfallbacktoabout87MMstin2012assupplyfromothermajorcoalexporting
countriesrecoversfromdisruptions.EIAalsoexpectsstrongglobaldemandforcoal
tocontinuetosuppresscoalimports.

U.S.CoalPrices.Averagedeliveredcoalpricestotheelectricpowersectorhaverisen
steadilyoverthelast10years,withanaverageannualincreaseof6.7percent.EIA
expectsthatthistrendwillcontinuein2011,withasignificantportionoftheincrease
attributedtoasharpriseintransportationcosts.Theprojectedaveragedeliveredcoal
pricetotheelectricpowersector,whichaveraged$2.26perMMBtuin2010,averages
$2.37perMMBtufor2011and$2.36perMMBtufor2012.

U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2011


8

U.S.CarbonDioxideEmissions

EIAestimatesthatCO2emissionsfromcombustingfossilfuelsincreasedby3.9
percentin2010(U.S.CarbonDioxideEmissionsGrowthChart).Forecastfossilfuel
CO2emissionsfallby0.7percentin2011,asemissionincreasesfromhighernatural
gasconsumptionareoffsetbydeclinesincoalandpetroleumconsumption.Increases
inhydroelectricgenerationandotherrenewableenergysourcesin2011alsohelpto
mitigateemissionsgrowth.FossilfuelCO2emissionsin2012remainstableas
expecteddeclinesincoalemissionsarenearlyequaledbytheincreasesinemissions
frompetroleumandnaturalgas.

U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2011


9

U.S. Energy Information Administration


Independent Statistics & Analysis

Short--Term Energy Outlook


Short

Chart Gallery for September 2011

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price


dollars per barrel
200

Historical spot price


STEO price forecast
NYMEX futures price
95% NYMEX futures price upper confidence interval
95% NYMEX futures price lower confidence interval

180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan 2010

Jul 2010

Jan 2011

Jul 2011

Jan 2012

Jul 2012

Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending September 1, 2011
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices


dollars per gallon
4.50
Forecast

Price difference
Retail regular gasoline
Crude oil

4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Crude oil price is refiner average acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

Jan 2012

U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Prices


dollars per gallon
5.00
Forecast

Price difference
Retail diesel fuel
WTI crude oil

4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Crude oil price is refiner average acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

Henry Hub Natural Gas Price


dollars per million Btu
10
Historical spot price
STEO price forecast
NYMEX futures price
95% NYMEX futures price upper confidence interval
95% NYMEX futures price lower confidence interval

0
Jan 2010

Jul 2010

Jan 2011

Jul 2011

Jan 2012

Jul 2012

Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for 5 trading days ending September 1, 2011
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

U.S. Natural Gas Prices


dollars per thousand cubic feet
25
Residential price
Henry Hub spot price
Composite wellhead price

Forecast

20

15

10

0
Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

World Liquid Fuels Consumption


million barrels per day
95

million barrels per day


9.0
Forecast
8.0

Total consumption

90

7.0
6.0

85

5.0

80

4.0

Annual growth
75

3.0
2.0

70

1.0

65

0.0
-1.0

60

-2.0
55

-3.0
2004

2005

2006
China

2007

2008

2009

United States

2010

2011

2012

Other Countries

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

World Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth


(change from previous year)
million barrels per day
1.5

Forecast

1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
2010
OECD*

2011
Non-OECD Asia

2012

Former Soviet Union

Other

* Countries belonging to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth


(change from previous year)
million barrels per day
2.0

Forecast

1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
2010

2011
OPEC countries
North America
North Sea

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

2012
Russia and Caspian Sea
Latin America
Other Non-OPEC

Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production Growth


(change from previous year)
million barrels per day
1.0
2012
0.8

2011

0.6

2010

0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2

Norway

Mexico

United Kingdom

Malaysia

Australia

Other North Sea

Syria

Gabon

Egypt

Sudan

India

Oman

Azerbaijan

Russia

Vietnam

Kazakhstan

Brazil

Colombia

China

Canada

United States

-0.4

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production


(change from previous year)
millions of barrels per day
4

dollars per barrel


100

World oil consumption (left axis)


Non-OPEC production (left axis)
WTI crude oil price (right axis)

Forecast
80
60

2
40
1

20

0
-20

-1

-40
-2
-60
-3

-80

-4
2008-Q1

-100
2009-Q1

2010-Q1

2011-Q1

2012-Q1

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity


million barrels per day
7
Forecast
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Note: Shaded area represents 2000-2010 average (2.7 million barrels per day)

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

2010

2012

OECD Commercial Oil Stocks


days of supply
70
Forecast
65
60
55
50
45
400
Jan 2006

Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Note: Colored band represents the range between the minimum and maximum observed inventories from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

Total production
(line chart)
9.00

U.S Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production


(million barrels per day)
Change from prior year
(column chart)
1.10

8.75

1.00

8.50

0.90

8.25

0.80

8.00

0.70

7.75

0.60

7.50

0.50

7.25

0.40

7.00

0.30

6.75

0.20

6.50

0.10

6.25

0.00

6.00
2009
Crude oil
Fuel ethanol
Total Production

-0.10
2011
2012
Liquified petroleum gas and pentanes plus
Biodiesel
Forecast

2010

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

U.S. Crude Oil Stocks


million barrels
400
Forecast
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
2000
Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Note: Colored band represents "normal" range published in EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Appendix A.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption


(million barrels per day)

Total consumption
(line chart)
20.0
19.5
19.0
18.5
18.0
17.5
17.0
16.5
2009

2010

Motor gasoline
Other

2011
Jet fuel
Total consumption

Change from prior year


(column chart)
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
2012

Distillate fuel
Forecast

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

U.S. Gasoline and Distillate Inventories


million barrels
260
Total motor gasoline inventory

Forecast

240
220
200
180

Total distillate fuel inventory

160
140
120
100
80
600
Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

Jan 2012

Note: Colored bands represent "normal" range published in EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Appendix A.

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

Total consumption
(line chart)
100

U.S. Natural Gas Consumption


(billion cubic feet per day)

Change from prior year


(column chart)
4.0

90

3.5

80

3.0

70

2.5

60

2.0

50

1.5

40

1.0

30

0.5

20

0.0

10

-0.5

-1.0
-1.5

-10
2009

2010
Electric power
Industrial
Total consumption

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

2011

2012

Residential and Commercial


Other
Forecast

U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage


billion cubic feet
Forecast

Storage level

4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0

Deviation from 2006 - 2010 average

-1,000
-2,000
-3,000
Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Jan 2011

130%
120%
110%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%

Jan 2012

Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

U.S. Coal Consumption


(million short tons)

Total consumption
(line chart)
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
2009

2010

2011

Electric power

Coke plants

Total consumption

Forecast

Change from prior year


(column chart)
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
-120
2012
Retail and general industry

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

U.S. Coal Production


(million short tons)

Total production
(line chart)
100

Change from prior year


(column chart)
120

95

100

90
80

85
80

60

75

40

70
20

65
60

55

-20

50
-40

45
40

-60
2009

2010

2011

Western region

Appalachian region

Total production

Forecast

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

2012
Interior region

U.S. Electric Power Coal Stocks


million short tons
220

Forecast

200
180
160
140
120
100
80
600
Jan
2003

Jan
2004

Jan
2005

Jan
2006

Jan
2007

Jan
2008

Jan
2009

Jan
2010

Jan
2011

Jan
2012

Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

U.S. Electricity Consumption


(million kilowatthours per day)

Total consumption
(line chart)

Change from prior year


(column chart)

13,000

700

12,000

600

11,000

500

10,000

400

9,000

300

8,000

200

7,000

100

6,000

5,000

-100

4,000

-200

3,000

-300
2009

2010

2011

Residential
Industrial
Total consumption

2012

Commercial and transportation


Direct use
Forecast

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

U.S. Residential Electricity Price


cents per kilowatthour

change from prior year

14
13

Forecast

Monthly average electricity price

36%

12
11

30%

10
9

24%

8
7

18%

6
10.3%

Annual growth

4
4.2%

3
2

3.2%

12%

5.7%

5.4%
2.6%

2.4%

0.9%

6%
2.2%

2.3%
0.6%

0.6%
0%

1
0

-1.6%
-6%

-1
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, All Sectors


thousand megawatthours per day
Forecast

12,000
10,000
8,000

50.8%

49.8%

49.6%

48.5%

49.0%

48.2%

44.4%

44.9%

43.7%

42.9%

Coal
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Nuclear

6,000
4,000

16.7%

17.9%

18.8%

21.6%

20.1%

21.4%

23.3%

23.8%

24.2%

24.9%

Hydropower
Renewables
Other Sources

2,000
0
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Note: Labels show percentage share of total generation provided by coal and natural gas.
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures Share


of Gross Domestic Product
Forecast

14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth


(change from previous year)
8%
Forecast

6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
2009

2010
All Fossil Fuels

Coal

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

2011
Petroleum

2012
Natural Gas

2012

U.S. Summer Cooling Degree-Days


(population-weighted)
450
400
2009
2010
2011
2012
Normal

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

U.S. Winter Heating Degree-Days


(population-weighted)
1200

2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
Normal

1000

800

600

400

200

0
OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

U.S. Census Regions and Census Divisions


AK

Pacific

WEST

MIDWEST

NORTHEAST

WA
ND

MT

MN

OR
W

ID
NV

Mountain

NE

CO
CA

West
North
Central

SD

Pacific

VT
W

IA

MO

KS

Middle
Atlantic
PA

IN

IL

UT
WV
NM

Pacific

VA

KY
OK

AZ
TX

HI

EastTN

AR
South
West
Central
South
AL
LA MS
Central

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011

NH

MA
RI
CT
NJ

DE
MD

NC

South
Atlantic
SC
GA

LEGEND
REGION
Division
State

FL

SOUTH

ME

New

NY England

East
MI
North
Central OH

Table SF01. U.S. Motor Gasoline Summer Outlook


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook -- September 2011
2010

2011

Year-over-year Change
(percent)
Q2
Q3
Season

Q2

Q3

Season

Q2

Q3

Season

WTI Crude Oil (Spot) a

1.85

1.81

1.83

2.43

2.16

2.30

31.4

19.5

25.5

Imported Crude Oil Priceb

1.77

1.75

1.76

2.59

2.37

2.48

46.3

35.7

40.8

Nominal Prices (dollars per gallon)

U.S. Refiner Average Crude Oil Cost

1.79

1.76

1.78

2.58

2.36

2.47

43.6

33.9

38.6

Wholesale Gasoline Pricec

2.18

2.10

2.14

3.09

2.97

3.03

42.0

41.4

41.7

Wholesale Diesel Fuel Pricec

2.20

2.15

2.17

3.16

3.08

3.12

43.7

43.4

43.6

Regular Gasoline Retail Priced

2.81

2.72

2.76

3.80

3.64

3.72

35.3

33.8

34.5

3.03

2.94

2.98

4.01

3.88

3.95

32.7

32.1

32.4

Diesel Fuel Retail Price

Gasoline Consumption/Supply (million barrels per day)


Total Consumption

9.193

9.224

9.209

8.863

9.067

8.966

-3.6

-1.7

-2.6

Total Refinery and Blender Outpute

7.607

7.692

7.650

7.481

7.771

7.627

-1.7

1.0

-0.3

0.8

0.3

0.5

-16.4

-43.1

-30.6

Fuel Ethanol Blending

0.849

0.855

0.852

0.856

0.858

0.857

Total Stock Withdrawal f

0.104

-0.040

0.032

-0.003

0.031

0.014

Net Imports f

0.633

0.716

0.675

0.530

0.407

0.468

Refinery Utilization (percent)

89.2

88.9

89.1

85.4

88.8

87.1

Gasoline Stocks, Including Blending Components (million barrels)


Beginning

225.0

215.6

225.0

214.9

215.2

214.9

Ending

215.6

219.3

219.3

215.2

212.3

212.3

Economic Indicators (annualized billion 2000 dollars)


Real GDP

13,059

13,140

13,099

13,270

13,308

13,289

1.6

1.3

1.5

Real Income

10,058

10,114

10,086

10,189

10,222

10,205

1.3

1.1

1.2

Spot Price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.


Cost of imported crude oil to U.S. refiners.
c
Price product sold by refiners to resellers.
d
Average pump price including taxes.
e
Refinery and blender net production plus finished motor gasoline adjustment.
f
Total stock withdrawal and net imports includes both finished gasoline and gasoline blend components.
GDP = gross domestic product.
b

Notes: Minor discrepancies with other Energy Information Administration (EIA) published historical data are due to rounding. Historical data
are printed in bold. Forecasts are in italic. The forecasts were generated by simulation of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Sources: Historical data: latest data available from: EIA,Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109; Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA0035; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP and income); Reuters News Service (WTI crude oil spotprice).
Macroeconomic projections are based on IHS Global Insight Macroeconomic Forecast Model.

Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
1st

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

Energy Supply
Crude Oil Production (a)
(million barrels per day) ..............................

5.49

5.40

5.46

5.54

5.57

5.61

5.52

5.77

5.72

5.70

5.64

5.64

5.47

5.62

5.68

Dry Natural Gas Production


(billion cubic feet per day) ...........................

57.93

58.56

59.28

60.66

61.05

63.01

63.47

63.83

63.32

63.79

64.01

64.52

59.12

62.85

63.91

Coal Production
(million short tons) .......................................

265

265

278

277

274

258

260

269

269

257

271

264

1,085

1,061

1,061

Liquid Fuels
(million barrels per day) ..............................

18.87

19.15

19.47

19.23

19.09

18.75

19.19

19.01

19.03

18.93

19.26

19.14

19.18

19.01

19.09

Natural Gas
(billion cubic feet per day) ...........................

83.38

54.41

57.92

68.99

83.90

56.26

57.83

71.40

83.89

56.01

59.10

71.74

66.11

67.29

67.67

Coal (b)
(million short tons) .......................................

265

247

286

250

255

242

283

251

260

232

273

246

1,048

1,031

1,011

Electricity
(billion kilowatt hours per day) ....................

10.61

10.02

12.01

9.92

10.60

10.17

11.98

10.05

10.61

10.21

11.97

10.12

10.64

10.70

10.73

Renewables (c)
(quadrillion Btu) ...........................................

1.76

1.95

1.79

1.83

2.04

2.26

2.02

1.93

2.04

2.22

2.00

2.02

7.33

8.25

8.29

Total Energy Consumption (d)


(quadrillion Btu) ...........................................

25.71

23.15

24.59

24.62

25.93

23.13

24.56

24.82

26.18

23.20

24.55

24.95

98.08

98.44

98.88

Crude Oil (e)


(dollars per barrel) .......................................

75.89

75.34

74.06

81.69

93.98

108.16

99.18

99.17

101.00

102.00

103.00

104.00

76.72

100.17

102.51

Natural Gas Wellhead


(dollars per thousand cubic feet) .................

4.79

4.07

4.11

3.67

4.06

4.10

4.08

3.88

3.95

3.78

3.93

4.35

4.15

4.03

4.00

Coal
(dollars per million Btu) ...............................

2.26

2.26

2.28

2.25

2.35

2.41

2.39

2.33

2.40

2.38

2.35

2.31

2.26

2.37

2.36

Real Gross Domestic Product


(billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) .........
Percent change from prior year ...................

12,938
2.2

13,059
3.3

13,140
3.5

13,216
3.1

13,228
2.2

13,270
1.6

13,308
1.3

13,354
1.0

13,437
1.6

13,520
1.9

13,585
2.1

13,651
2.2

13,088
3.0

13,290
1.5

13,548
1.9

GDP Implicit Price Deflator


(Index, 2005=100) ........................................
Percent change from prior year ...................

110.4
0.6

110.8
1.1

111.2
1.4

111.7
1.6

112.4
1.8

113.0
2.0

113.7
2.3

113.9
2.0

114.1
1.5

114.1
0.9

114.5
0.7

115.0
1.0

111.0
1.2

113.3
2.0

114.4
1.0

Real Disposable Personal Income


(billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) .........
Percent change from prior year ...................

9,923
-0.3

10,058
1.0

10,114
3.0

10,152
3.5

10,170
2.5

10,189
1.3

10,222
1.1

10,287
1.3

10,337
1.6

10,403
2.1

10,426
2.0

10,448
1.6

10,062
1.8

10,217
1.5

10,403
1.8

85.0
2.2

86.9
7.5

88.1
7.2

89.0
6.6

90.6
6.6

90.8
4.4

91.6
3.9

92.0
3.5

92.7
2.3

93.6
3.1

94.5
3.2

95.2
3.4

87.3
5.8

91.3
4.6

94.0
3.0

2,311
12

422
445

62
930

1,665
68

2,285
33

517
432

82
920

1,625
77

2,250
37

538
347

98
777

1,612
77

4,460
1,455

4,509
1,462

4,498
1,238

Energy Consumption

Energy Prices

Macroeconomic

Manufacturing Production Index


(Index, 2007=100) ........................................
Percent change from prior year ...................
Weather
U.S. Heating Degree-Days ..........................
U.S. Cooling Degree-Days ..........................

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption.
(c) Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy.
EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.
(d) The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIAs Monthly Energy Review (MER).
Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER or the Annual Energy Review (AER).
(e) Refers to the refiner average acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report, DOE/EIA-0208; Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380; Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130;
Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226; Quarterly Coal Report, DOE/EIA-0121; and International Petroleum Monthly, DOE/EIA-0520.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model. Macroeconomic projections are based on Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.
Weather projections from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Table 2. U.S. Energy Prices


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
1st

2nd

2011

2012

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

Crude Oil (dollars per barrel)


West Texas Intermediate Spot Average ...........................
Imported Average .............................................................
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost ....................................
Liquid Fuels (cents per gallon)

78.64
75.28
75.89

77.79
74.32
75.34

76.05
73.32
74.06

85.10
81.03
81.69

93.50
94.23
93.98

102.22
108.73
108.16

90.88
99.50
99.18

91.00
99.15
99.17

93.00
101.00
101.00

94.00
102.00
102.00

95.00
103.00
103.00

96.00
104.00
104.00

79.40
75.87
76.72

94.40
100.46
100.17

94.50
102.50
102.51

211
209
205

218
220
212

210
215
204

227
240
234

267
286
275

309
316
307

297
308
301

281
304
301

282
299
299

293
301
298

291
303
298

282
305
303

217
221
215

289
304
293

287
302
300

210
172

219
170

214
166

238
182

287
218

322
246

307
238

304
235

301
235

300
234

301
236

304
241

220
172

305
234

301
236

271
277
285
292

281
286
303
292

272
277
294
282

288
294
315
310

329
335
363
359

380
385
401
393

364
370
388
377

347
353
386
393

348
353
384
396

360
365
386
389

359
365
387
389

348
354
390
399

278
283
299
297

356
361
385
374

354
359
387
395

Average Wellhead (dollars per thousand cubic feet) ......


Henry Hub Spot (dollars per thousand cubic feet) ..........
Henry Hub Spot (dollars per Million Btu) .........................
End-Use Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)

4.79
5.30
5.15

4.07
4.45
4.32

4.11
4.41
4.28

3.67
3.91
3.80

4.06
4.31
4.18

4.10
4.50
4.37

4.08
4.28
4.16

3.88
4.22
4.10

3.95
4.38
4.25

3.78
4.32
4.19

3.93
4.32
4.20

4.35
4.69
4.55

4.15
4.52
4.39

4.03
4.33
4.20

4.00
4.43
4.30

Industrial Sector ............................................................


Commercial Sector .......................................................
Residential Sector .........................................................
Electricity
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)

6.51
9.31
10.59

4.98
9.26
12.55

5.07
9.63
15.49

4.89
8.66
10.56

5.41
8.74
9.97

5.13
9.14
11.94

5.38
9.81
16.28

5.57
9.60
11.74

5.76
9.31
10.73

5.26
9.34
12.41

5.32
9.90
16.39

5.91
10.08
12.39

5.40
9.14
11.19

5.38
9.20
11.23

5.58
9.62
11.87

Coal ...............................................................................
Natural Gas ..................................................................
Residual Fuel Oil (c) ......................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil ...........................................................
End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)

2.26
6.06
12.10
15.84

2.26
4.89
12.36
16.48

2.28
4.88
12.36
16.18

2.25
4.69
14.19
17.94

2.35
5.05
15.88
20.99

2.41
4.94
18.42
23.37

2.39
4.97
18.19
23.26

2.33
4.92
17.96
23.22

2.40
5.09
18.25
22.96

2.38
4.87
18.49
22.91

2.35
4.93
18.55
23.09

2.31
5.36
18.67
23.34

2.26
5.08
12.63
16.60

2.37
4.97
17.70
22.68

2.36
5.04
18.50
23.08

Industrial Sector ............................................................


Commercial Sector .......................................................
Residential Sector .........................................................

6.53
9.87
10.88

6.75
10.30
11.90

7.17
10.71
12.02

6.67
10.06
11.50

6.68
10.01
11.24

6.83
10.37
11.97

7.30
10.90
12.35

6.77
10.24
11.73

6.69
10.06
11.23

6.79
10.51
12.14

7.17
11.02
12.44

6.73
10.35
11.82

6.79
10.26
11.58

6.90
10.40
11.84

6.85
10.51
11.92

Refiner Prices for Resale


Gasoline ........................................................................
Diesel Fuel ....................................................................
Heating Oil ....................................................................
Refiner Prices to End Users
Jet Fuel .........................................................................
No. 6 Residual Fuel Oil (a) ............................................
Retail Prices Including Taxes
Gasoline Regular Grade (b) ..........................................
Gasoline All Grades (b) .................................................
On-highway Diesel Fuel ................................................
Heating Oil ....................................................................
Natural Gas

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Average for all sulfur contents.
(b) Average self-service cash price.
(c) Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Prices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review , DOE/EIA-0035.
Natural gas Henry Hub and WTI crude oil spot prices from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3a. International Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010

2011

2012

Year
2011

2012

21.42
9.69
3.49
2.98
3.73
1.53
65.51
35.15
29.77
5.39
13.18
4.27
12.90
86.93

21.52
9.89
3.58
2.96
3.59
1.51
66.04
35.28
29.40
5.88
13.39
4.42
12.95
87.56

21.68
9.97
3.79
2.91
3.51
1.51
67.61
36.23
29.92
6.32
13.43
4.55
13.39
89.29

52.96

51.78

52.28

53.06

45.63
19.26
0.27
2.28
14.44
4.02
5.36
44.24
4.70
0.82
10.62
9.93
18.16
89.87

46.26
19.14
0.27
2.27
14.56
4.40
5.63
43.95
4.66
0.82
10.82
10.16
17.49
90.21

46.12
19.18
0.27
2.21
14.58
4.45
5.43
40.71
4.40
0.80
9.17
9.72
16.61
86.83

45.85
19.01
0.27
2.24
14.44
4.44
5.44
42.35
4.52
0.79
10.00
10.02
17.02
88.20

45.79
19.09
0.27
2.24
14.33
4.33
5.53
43.79
4.60
0.80
10.58
10.22
17.59
89.59

-0.39
-0.01
-0.02
-0.42

-0.09
0.28
0.46
0.65

0.55
-0.05
-0.07
0.43

-0.05
-0.03
-0.02
-0.10

0.10
0.14
0.40
0.64

0.04
0.10
0.16
0.30

1,088
2,615

1,096
2,598

1,046
2,551

1,068
2,659

1,062
2,603

1,046
2,551

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Supply (million barrels per day) (a)


OECD ................................................
U.S. (50 States) .............................
Canada ..........................................
Mexico ............................................
North Sea (b) .................................
Other OECD ...................................
Non-OECD ........................................
OPEC .............................................
Crude Oil Portion ........................
Other Liquids ...............................
Former Soviet Union ......................
China ..............................................
Other Non-OECD ...........................
Total World Supply ............................

21.56
9.58
3.37
3.02
4.08
1.51
64.55
34.51
29.40
5.11
13.11
4.16
12.78
86.11

21.34
9.58
3.47
2.99
3.74
1.55
65.31
35.02
29.65
5.37
13.15
4.23
12.90
86.65

21.05
9.70
3.49
2.97
3.36
1.54
66.19
35.71
30.15
5.57
13.18
4.31
12.98
87.24

21.75
9.89
3.64
2.95
3.76
1.51
65.96
35.35
29.85
5.49
13.27
4.39
12.96
87.71

21.43
9.77
3.60
2.99
3.60
1.46
66.00
35.32
29.78
5.54
13.28
4.36
13.04
87.43

21.40
9.98
3.40
2.98
3.50
1.52
65.34
34.88
29.20
5.68
13.31
4.37
12.78
86.74

21.56
9.77
3.66
2.97
3.62
1.55
66.73
35.55
29.40
6.16
13.61
4.49
13.08
88.30

21.69
10.02
3.66
2.90
3.62
1.49
66.08
35.36
29.25
6.11
13.37
4.45
12.90
87.77

21.81
9.91
3.74
2.94
3.71
1.51
67.12
35.84
29.59
6.25
13.60
4.51
13.17
88.93

21.76
10.01
3.77
2.92
3.56
1.50
67.46
35.98
29.68
6.30
13.52
4.56
13.40
89.22

21.54
9.98
3.80
2.90
3.33
1.52
67.67
36.28
29.93
6.35
13.37
4.57
13.46
89.21

21.61
9.95
3.85
2.89
3.43
1.49
68.17
36.82
30.45
6.37
13.23
4.58
13.54
89.78

Non-OPEC Supply ............................

51.60

51.62

51.52

52.36

52.11

51.86

52.74

52.41

53.09

53.24

52.94

Consumption (million barrels per day) (c)


OECD ................................................
45.90
U.S. (50 States) .............................
18.87
U.S. Territories ...............................
0.27
Canada ..........................................
2.15
Europe ............................................ 14.31
Japan .............................................
4.82
Other OECD ...................................
5.48
Non-OECD ........................................
39.66
Former Soviet Union ......................
4.32
Europe ............................................
0.79
China ..............................................
8.88
Other Asia ......................................
9.81
Other Non-OECD ...........................
15.87
Total World Consumption .................
85.56

45.28
19.15
0.27
2.17
14.25
4.07
5.37
41.14
4.34
0.77
9.31
9.93
16.79
86.42

46.60
19.47
0.27
2.26
14.92
4.36
5.32
40.92
4.49
0.83
8.89
9.47
17.25
87.52

46.70
19.23
0.27
2.25
14.82
4.57
5.57
41.08
4.45
0.83
9.60
9.69
16.52
87.79

46.19
19.09
0.27
2.25
14.21
4.86
5.52
41.30
4.42
0.78
9.65
10.18
16.27
87.50

44.52
18.75
0.27
2.18
14.14
3.92
5.27
42.68
4.47
0.76
10.11
10.20
17.13
87.20

46.06
19.19
0.27
2.28
14.65
4.33
5.35
42.88
4.62
0.81
10.02
9.74
17.69
88.95

46.60
19.01
0.27
2.27
14.77
4.65
5.63
42.53
4.58
0.81
10.21
9.97
16.96
89.13

46.49
19.03
0.27
2.26
14.34
4.92
5.68
42.97
4.50
0.79
10.30
10.38
17.00
89.46

44.79
18.93
0.27
2.17
13.98
3.99
5.45
44.00
4.54
0.77
10.56
10.40
17.72
88.80

Inventory Net Withdrawals (million barrels per day)


U.S. (50 States) ................................
-0.12
-0.60
Other OECD ......................................
-0.25
-0.32
Other Stock Draws and Balance ......
-0.18
0.69
Total Stock Draw ............................
-0.54
-0.23

-0.21
0.30
0.20
0.28

0.73
0.15
-0.80
0.08

0.27
0.14
-0.34
0.07

-0.42
-0.17
1.04
0.46

-0.06
0.28
0.44
0.65

0.59
0.30
0.47
1.36

0.10
0.17
0.26
0.53

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)


U.S. Commercial Inventory ..............
1,060
OECD Commercial Inventory ...........
2,664

1,135
2,740

1,068
2,659

1,043
2,622

1,081
2,675

1,116
2,685

1,062
2,603

1,053
2,579

1,115
2,747

2010

- = no data available
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
(a) Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
(b) Includes offshore supply from Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom.
(c) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with "petroleum product supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.
Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3b. Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010

2011

2012

Year
2011

2012

16.16
3.49
2.98
9.69

16.43
3.58
2.96
9.89

16.67
3.79
2.91
9.97

5.28
0.72
3.04
1.05
0.46

4.79
0.78
2.74
0.80
0.46

4.97
0.72
2.86
0.94
0.45

5.20
0.73
2.99
1.02
0.46

4.19
1.98
1.11
0.25

4.28
2.03
1.15
0.24

4.61
2.13
1.32
0.28

4.47
2.10
1.22
0.27

4.36
2.07
1.19
0.25

13.52
1.19
1.81
10.14
0.21
0.38

13.37
1.14
1.82
10.03
0.21
0.38

13.23
1.09
1.83
9.93
0.22
0.38

13.18
1.04
1.61
10.14
0.20
0.39

13.39
1.10
1.70
10.20
0.21
0.39

13.43
1.15
1.81
10.08
0.21
0.38

1.42
0.88
0.38
0.11

1.53
0.88
0.38
0.23

1.53
0.88
0.37
0.24

1.53
0.88
0.37
0.24

1.58
0.87
0.40
0.26

1.42
0.87
0.38
0.12

1.51
0.88
0.37
0.20

9.10
0.55
4.45
0.98
1.02
0.64
0.42

9.25
0.55
4.51
1.01
1.03
0.65
0.45

9.30
0.55
4.56
1.00
1.03
0.63
0.48

9.34
0.56
4.57
1.00
1.03
0.63
0.50

9.36
0.53
4.58
1.01
1.03
0.65
0.52

8.88
0.55
4.27
0.95
1.03
0.67
0.34

9.04
0.53
4.42
1.00
1.01
0.65
0.39

9.31
0.55
4.55
1.00
1.03
0.64
0.49

2.59
0.69
0.30
0.22
0.46

2.55
0.68
0.29
0.21
0.46

2.58
0.70
0.29
0.21
0.46

2.58
0.70
0.29
0.21
0.46

2.57
0.70
0.29
0.20
0.46

2.58
0.70
0.29
0.20
0.46

2.58
0.66
0.32
0.23
0.51

2.56
0.67
0.30
0.21
0.47

2.58
0.70
0.29
0.21
0.46

51.86

52.74

52.41

53.09

53.24

52.94

52.96

51.78

52.28

53.06

5.68
57.54

6.16
58.90

6.11
58.52

6.25
59.33

6.30
59.54

6.35
59.29

6.37
59.33

5.39
57.17

5.88
58.16

6.32
59.37

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

North America ...................................


Canada ................................................
Mexico ..................................................
United States .......................................

15.97
3.37
3.02
9.58

16.04
3.47
2.99
9.58

16.16
3.49
2.97
9.70

16.48
3.64
2.95
9.89

16.36
3.60
2.99
9.77

16.37
3.40
2.98
9.98

16.40
3.66
2.97
9.77

16.58
3.66
2.90
10.02

16.59
3.74
2.94
9.91

16.70
3.77
2.92
10.01

16.69
3.80
2.90
9.98

16.69
3.85
2.89
9.95

Central and South America ............


Argentina .............................................
Brazil ....................................................
Colombia ..............................................
Other Central and S. America .............

4.72
0.80
2.68
0.77
0.47

4.80
0.79
2.75
0.79
0.46

4.81
0.79
2.75
0.81
0.46

4.83
0.75
2.80
0.83
0.45

4.92
0.78
2.82
0.88
0.45

4.91
0.70
2.83
0.93
0.45

5.06
0.72
2.92
0.96
0.46

4.98
0.70
2.86
0.97
0.45

5.07
0.72
2.89
1.00
0.46

5.21
0.73
3.02
1.01
0.46

5.25
0.73
3.03
1.03
0.46

Europe ...............................................
Norway .................................................
United Kingdom (offshore) ..................
Other North Sea ..................................

4.92
2.32
1.46
0.30

4.61
2.11
1.35
0.29

4.24
1.93
1.18
0.25

4.65
2.18
1.30
0.28

4.52
2.10
1.24
0.26

4.42
2.07
1.16
0.28

4.48
2.18
1.17
0.27

4.47
2.06
1.30
0.26

4.57
2.14
1.31
0.26

4.41
2.12
1.19
0.25

Former Soviet Union (FSU) ..............


Azerbaijan ............................................
Kazakhstan ..........................................
Russia ..................................................
Turkmenistan .......................................
Other FSU ...........................................

13.11
1.00
1.61
10.10
0.20
0.41

13.15
1.05
1.57
10.14
0.20
0.39

13.18
1.05
1.61
10.14
0.20
0.38

13.27
1.06
1.66
10.17
0.21
0.39

13.28
1.00
1.67
10.22
0.21
0.39

13.31
1.00
1.67
10.25
0.21
0.39

13.61
1.23
1.73
10.25
0.21
0.40

13.37
1.17
1.72
10.09
0.21
0.39

13.60
1.19
1.79
10.23
0.21
0.39

Middle East ........................................


Oman ...................................................
Syria .....................................................
Yemen .................................................

1.59
0.86
0.40
0.27

1.58
0.86
0.40
0.26

1.57
0.87
0.40
0.25

1.58
0.88
0.40
0.25

1.56
0.89
0.38
0.24

1.40
0.87
0.38
0.10

1.37
0.87
0.39
0.07

1.36
0.85
0.38
0.07

Asia and Oceania ............................


Australia ...............................................
China ...................................................
India .....................................................
Indonesia .............................................
Malaysia ...............................................
Vietnam ................................................

8.68
0.56
4.16
0.91
1.02
0.68
0.35

8.84
0.58
4.23
0.92
1.04
0.67
0.34

8.99
0.55
4.31
0.98
1.04
0.65
0.36

9.00
0.53
4.39
1.00
1.00
0.66
0.34

8.90
0.46
4.36
1.00
1.00
0.66
0.36

8.92
0.53
4.37
1.00
1.01
0.61
0.35

9.23
0.59
4.49
1.00
1.03
0.67
0.41

Africa ..................................................
Egypt ....................................................
Equatorial Guinea ................................
Gabon ..................................................
Sudan ..................................................

2.61
0.66
0.33
0.23
0.51

2.60
0.66
0.33
0.23
0.51

2.57
0.66
0.32
0.23
0.51

2.55
0.66
0.31
0.22
0.51

2.56
0.66
0.31
0.22
0.49

2.53
0.66
0.31
0.20
0.47

Total non-OPEC liquids ....................

51.60

51.62

51.52

52.36

52.11

OPEC non-crude liquids .................


Non-OPEC + OPEC non-crude .......

5.11
56.71

5.37
56.99

5.57
57.09

5.49
57.86

5.54
57.65

2010

- = no data available
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
Sudan production represents total production from both north and south.
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
Not all countries are shown in each region and sum of reported country volumes may not equal regional volumes.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Supply (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010

2011

2012

Year
2011

2012

1.30
1.85
0.49
3.75
2.37
2.28
1.65
2.05
0.85
8.78
2.30
2.11
29.77

29.40

29.92

6.37

5.39

5.88

6.32

36.28

36.82

35.15

35.28

36.23

33.33

33.58

33.96

1.30
1.85
0.49
3.75
2.37
2.60
1.65
2.05
0.85
12.19
2.60
2.11
33.76

32.76

33.53

3.65

3.65

3.51

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.32
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.41
0.30
0.00
3.99

3.35

3.61

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Crude Oil
Algeria ..........................................
Angola ..........................................
Ecudaor ........................................
Iran ...............................................
Iraq ...............................................
Kuwait ...........................................
Libya .............................................
Nigeria ..........................................
Qatar ............................................
Saudi Arabia .................................
United Arab Emirates ....................
Venezuela .....................................
OPEC Total ...............................

1.35
1.97
0.47
3.80
2.42
2.30
1.65
2.03
0.84
8.20
2.30
2.07
29.40

1.30
1.94
0.48
3.80
2.37
2.23
1.65
1.95
0.85
8.70
2.30
2.09
29.65

1.27
1.79
0.49
3.70
2.32
2.30
1.65
2.08
0.85
9.30
2.30
2.10
30.15

1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.40
2.30
1.65
2.12
0.85
8.90
2.30
2.17
29.85

1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.33
1.09
2.13
0.85
9.03
2.43
2.20
29.78

1.27
1.60
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.50
0.17
2.15
0.85
9.13
2.60
2.20
29.20

29.40

29.25

29.59

29.68

29.93

30.45

Other Liquids .................................

5.11

5.37

5.57

5.49

5.54

5.68

6.16

6.11

6.25

6.30

6.35

Total OPEC Supply ........................

34.51

35.02

35.71

35.35

35.32

34.88

35.55

35.36

35.84

35.98

Crude Oil Production Capacity


Algeria ..........................................
Angola ..........................................
Ecudaor ........................................
Iran ...............................................
Iraq ...............................................
Kuwait ...........................................
Libya .............................................
Nigeria ..........................................
Qatar ............................................
Saudi Arabia .................................
United Arab Emirates ....................
Venezuela .....................................
OPEC Total ...............................

1.35
1.97
0.47
3.80
2.42
2.60
1.65
2.03
0.85
12.00
2.60
2.07
33.69

1.30
1.94
0.48
3.80
2.37
2.60
1.65
1.95
0.85
12.25
2.60
2.09
33.85

1.27
1.79
0.49
3.70
2.32
2.60
1.65
2.08
0.85
12.25
2.60
2.10
33.70

1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.40
2.60
1.65
2.12
0.85
12.25
2.60
2.17
33.81

1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.62
1.09
2.13
0.85
12.25
2.66
2.20
33.48

1.27
1.60
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.64
0.17
2.15
0.85
12.25
2.66
2.20
32.51

32.34

32.70

33.24

Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity


Algeria ..........................................
0.00
Angola ..........................................
0.00
Ecudaor ........................................
0.00
Iran ...............................................
0.00
Iraq ...............................................
0.00
Kuwait ...........................................
0.30
Libya .............................................
0.00
Nigeria ..........................................
0.00
Qatar ............................................
0.01
Saudi Arabia .................................
3.80
United Arab Emirates ....................
0.30
Venezuela .....................................
0.00
4.29
OPEC Total ...............................

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.55
0.30
0.00
4.19

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.95
0.30
0.00
3.55

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.35
0.30
0.00
3.95

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.22
0.23
0.00
3.70

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.12
0.06
0.00
3.31

2.95

3.45

3.65

2010

- = no data available
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3d. World Liquid Fuels Consumption (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010

2011

2012

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

North America ............................................................


Canada ........................................................................
Mexico .........................................................................
United States ...............................................................

23.11
2.15
2.07
18.87

23.43
2.17
2.10
19.15

23.79
2.26
2.05
19.47

23.55
2.25
2.07
19.23

23.37
2.25
2.03
19.09

23.02
2.18
2.09
18.75

23.62
2.28
2.15
19.19

23.45
2.27
2.16
19.01

23.47
2.26
2.17
19.03

23.32
2.17
2.21
18.93

23.71
2.28
2.16
19.26

23.58
2.27
2.16
19.14

Central and South America .....................................


Brazil ............................................................................

6.15
2.51

6.40
2.62

6.39
2.67

6.38
2.65

6.29
2.63

6.55
2.74

6.54
2.80

6.53
2.77

6.49
2.78

6.76
2.89

6.74
2.95

Europe .......................................................................

15.10

15.03

15.75

15.65

14.99

14.90

15.46

15.58

15.12

14.75

Former Soviet Union ..................................................


Russia ..........................................................................

4.32
2.92

4.34
2.94

4.49
3.04

4.45
3.00

4.42
2.95

4.47
3.01

4.62
3.10

4.58
3.06

4.50
2.99

Middle East ................................................................

6.60

7.30

7.87

7.05

6.94

7.58

8.19

7.42

Asia and Oceania .....................................................


China ...........................................................................
Japan ...........................................................................
India .............................................................................

26.93
8.88
4.82
3.36

26.59
9.31
4.07
3.33

25.99
8.89
4.36
3.05

27.37
9.60
4.57
3.30

28.19
9.65
4.86
3.54

27.43
10.11
3.92
3.41

27.31
10.02
4.33
3.13

Africa ..........................................................................

3.37

3.34

3.25

3.34

3.29

3.24

Total OECD Liquid Fuels Consumption ..................


Total non-OECD Liquid Fuels Consumption ...........

45.90
39.66

45.28
41.14

46.60
40.92

46.70
41.08

46.19
41.30

Total World Liquid Fuels Consumption ...................

85.56

86.42

87.52

87.79

World Real Gross Domestic Product (a) .................


Index, 2007 Q1 = 100 ..................................................
Percent change from prior year ...................................

105.59
4.1

106.83
4.6

107.70
4.4

Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate (a)


Index, January 2007 = 100 ..........................................
Percent change from prior year ...................................

97.58
-6.4

99.82
-1.1

98.69
0.8

2010

2011

2012

23.47
2.21
2.07
19.18

23.37
2.24
2.11
19.01

23.52
2.24
2.18
19.09

6.73
2.92

6.33
2.61

6.48
2.73

6.68
2.88

15.26

15.38

15.38

15.24

15.13

4.54
3.04

4.70
3.13

4.66
3.09

4.40
2.98

4.52
3.03

4.60
3.06

7.40

7.90

8.40

7.67

7.21

7.54

7.84

28.32
10.21
4.65
3.37

29.12
10.30
4.92
3.66

28.21
10.56
3.99
3.52

27.79
10.62
4.02
3.23

28.86
10.82
4.40
3.48

26.72
9.17
4.45
3.26

27.81
10.00
4.44
3.36

28.50
10.58
4.33
3.47

3.20

3.26

3.36

3.31

3.27

3.33

3.32

3.25

3.31

44.52
42.68

46.06
42.88

46.60
42.53

46.49
42.97

44.79
44.00

45.63
44.24

46.26
43.95

46.12
40.71

45.85
42.35

45.79
43.79

87.50

87.20

88.95

89.13

89.46

88.80

89.87

90.21

86.83

88.20

89.59

108.67
4.0

109.34
3.5

109.93
2.9

110.85
2.9

111.90
3.0

113.02
3.4

114.13
3.8

115.19
3.9

116.26
3.9

107.21
4.3

110.51
3.1

114.66
3.8

96.17
0.8

97.31
-0.3

97.00
-2.8

96.43
-2.3

95.88
-0.3

95.65
-1.7

95.73
-1.3

95.79
-0.7

95.85
0.0

98.06
-1.5

96.65
-1.4

95.76
-0.9

- = no data available
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
(a) Weighted geometric mean of real indices for various countries with weights equal to each country's share of world oil consumption in the base period. Exchange rate is measured in foreign currency per U.S.
dollar.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 4a. U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
1st
Supply (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil Supply
Domestic Production (a) .........................................
Alaska .................................................................
Federal Gulf of Mexico (b) ...................................
Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ...............................
Crude Oil Net Imports (c) ........................................
SPR Net Withdrawals ............................................
Commercial Inventory Net Withdrawals .................
Crude Oil Adjustment (d) ........................................
Total Crude Oil Input to Refineries ............................
Other Supply
Refinery Processing Gain .......................................
Natural Gas Liquids Production .............................
Renewables and Oxygenate Production (e) ...........
Fuel Ethanol Production ......................................
Petroleum Products Adjustment (f) ........................
Product Net Imports (c) ..........................................
Pentanes Plus .....................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .....................................
Unfinished Oils ....................................................
Other HC/Oxygenates ..........................................
Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. ..............................
Finished Motor Gasoline .....................................
Jet Fuel ................................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil .................................................
Residual Fuel Oil .................................................
Other Oils (g) .......................................................
Product Inventory Net Withdrawals ........................
Total Supply ...............................................................

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

5.49
0.64
1.65
3.20
8.82
0.00
-0.38
0.04
13.98

5.40
0.58
1.52
3.30
9.73
0.00
-0.07
0.18
15.24

5.46
0.57
1.52
3.37
9.52
0.00
0.03
0.12
15.13

5.54
0.61
1.51
3.42
8.61
0.00
0.32
0.06
14.54

5.57
0.56
1.54
3.47
8.68
0.00
-0.32
0.31
14.23

5.61
0.56
1.46
3.59
8.95
0.00
0.05
0.21
14.81

5.52
0.51
1.31
3.70
9.41
0.40
-0.06
0.13
15.39

5.77
0.56
1.40
3.81
8.67
0.00
0.23
-0.01
14.66

5.72
0.55
1.43
3.74
8.90
0.00
-0.21
0.07
14.47

5.70
0.53
1.40
3.77
9.22
0.00
0.10
0.09
15.11

5.64
0.51
1.35
3.77
9.35
0.00
0.16
0.04
15.19

5.64
0.49
1.36
3.79
8.76
0.00
0.15
-0.02
14.54

5.47
0.60
1.55
3.32
9.17
0.00
-0.02
0.10
14.72

5.62
0.55
1.43
3.64
8.93
0.10
-0.03
0.16
14.78

5.68
0.52
1.38
3.77
9.06
0.00
0.05
0.04
14.83

1.03
2.05
0.87
0.84
0.15
0.54
-0.03
0.08
0.52
-0.06
0.61
-0.12
0.01
-0.10
-0.02
-0.35
0.26
18.87

1.06
2.07
0.89
0.85
0.16
0.26
-0.01
-0.01
0.57
-0.07
0.74
-0.11
0.02
-0.48
-0.03
-0.38
-0.53
19.15

1.10
2.06
0.91
0.87
0.18
0.35
0.01
-0.02
0.65
-0.09
0.83
-0.12
0.03
-0.54
-0.07
-0.34
-0.24
19.47

1.08
2.13
0.95
0.91
0.18
-0.06
0.01
0.03
0.68
-0.09
0.62
-0.30
-0.01
-0.58
-0.03
-0.39
0.41
19.23

1.03
2.04
0.95
0.91
0.18
0.05
0.01
0.04
0.62
-0.10
0.65
-0.30
-0.04
-0.44
0.02
-0.39
0.60
19.08

1.06
2.19
0.94
0.89
0.19
0.04
0.06
-0.08
0.65
-0.10
0.83
-0.31
0.01
-0.62
-0.03
-0.38
-0.46
18.76

1.05
2.15
0.92
0.89
0.13
-0.11
-0.01
-0.02
0.70
-0.06
0.72
-0.31
-0.01
-0.59
-0.11
-0.40
-0.32
19.21

1.04
2.14
0.93
0.90
0.13
-0.25
-0.01
0.00
0.65
-0.09
0.68
-0.41
-0.04
-0.47
-0.12
-0.44
0.36
19.02

1.00
2.12
0.94
0.91
0.13
0.05
-0.02
0.02
0.62
-0.08
0.69
-0.31
-0.04
-0.48
-0.02
-0.33
0.31
19.03

1.02
2.22
0.94
0.91
0.13
0.00
-0.03
-0.07
0.65
-0.08
0.74
-0.29
0.00
-0.48
-0.03
-0.41
-0.48
18.93

1.05
2.22
0.94
0.91
0.13
-0.02
-0.02
-0.09
0.73
-0.09
0.71
-0.17
0.00
-0.55
-0.09
-0.43
-0.25
19.26

1.04
2.19
0.94
0.91
0.13
-0.11
-0.02
-0.06
0.63
-0.09
0.71
-0.32
-0.02
-0.40
-0.09
-0.45
0.40
19.14

1.07
2.07
0.91
0.87
0.17
0.27
-0.01
0.02
0.61
-0.08
0.70
-0.16
0.01
-0.43
-0.04
-0.36
-0.03
19.18

1.05
2.13
0.94
0.90
0.16
-0.07
0.01
-0.01
0.65
-0.09
0.72
-0.33
-0.02
-0.53
-0.06
-0.40
0.04
19.02

1.03
2.19
0.94
0.91
0.13
-0.02
-0.02
-0.05
0.66
-0.09
0.71
-0.27
-0.02
-0.48
-0.06
-0.41
0.00
19.09

0.09
2.46
0.03

0.07
1.89
0.02

0.11
2.03
0.00

0.10
2.32
0.00

0.10
2.45
0.06

0.11
1.95
-0.03

0.09
2.01
0.00

0.10
2.25
0.01

0.08
2.43
0.01

0.08
1.97
0.00

0.09
2.05
0.00

0.10
2.28
0.02

0.09
2.17
0.01

0.10
2.16
0.01

0.09
2.18
0.01

8.63
1.38
3.79
0.55
1.93
18.87

9.19
1.47
3.71
0.54
2.25
19.15

9.22
1.48
3.75
0.53
2.35
19.47

8.92
1.40
3.94
0.52
2.04
19.23

8.60
1.36
3.95
0.60
1.96
19.09

8.86
1.47
3.75
0.52
2.11
18.75

9.07
1.49
3.80
0.44
2.29
19.19

8.80
1.39
3.95
0.48
2.02
19.01

8.61
1.37
3.98
0.55
1.99
19.03

8.91
1.45
3.79
0.54
2.19
18.93

9.12
1.47
3.79
0.48
2.26
19.26

8.85
1.40
4.02
0.49
1.99
19.14

8.99
1.43
3.80
0.54
2.14
19.18

8.83
1.43
3.86
0.51
2.10
19.01

8.87
1.42
3.90
0.51
2.11
19.09

................................

9.36

9.99

9.87

8.55

8.74

8.99

9.30

8.42

8.95

9.22

9.33

8.66

9.44

8.86

9.04

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)


Commercial Inventory
Crude Oil (excluding SPR) .....................................
Pentanes Plus ........................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ........................................
Unfinished Oils .......................................................
Other HC/Oxygenates .............................................
Total Motor Gasoline ..............................................
Finished Motor Gasoline .....................................
Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. ..............................
Jet Fuel ...................................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil ....................................................
Residual Fuel Oil ....................................................
Other Oils (f) ...........................................................
Total Commercial Inventory .......................................
Crude Oil in SPR .......................................................
Heating Oil Reserve ..................................................

359.2
9.4
72.9
87.2
22.6
225.0
81.9
143.1
42.2
146.8
40.7
54.4
1,060
727
2.0

365.5
11.5
119.9
84.2
20.5
215.6
71.8
143.8
44.8
157.9
42.7
52.3
1,115
727
2.0

362.8
11.9
141.4
83.3
18.9
219.3
70.2
149.0
46.8
166.7
40.1
43.4
1,135
727
2.0

333.4
12.5
108.3
80.6
19.4
219.4
63.3
156.2
43.2
164.3
41.3
45.0
1,068
727
2.0

362.6
10.8
68.7
87.4
23.2
214.9
60.8
154.1
40.0
148.5
37.1
49.6
1,043
727
0.0

358.5
15.3
105.3
91.9
21.2
215.2
56.4
158.8
42.3
143.7
37.4
50.5
1,081
727
0.0

363.6
15.8
136.2
84.9
20.4
212.3
56.0
156.3
43.8
157.4
38.9
42.9
1,116
690
0.3

342.8
13.0
105.8
81.0
19.8
218.6
55.5
163.0
41.9
157.5
37.9
44.0
1,062
690
1.0

362.3
12.2
75.4
90.0
21.8
219.0
53.1
165.9
42.0
137.6
39.4
53.3
1,053
690
1.0

353.5
13.8
115.6
86.5
20.9
217.9
56.0
161.9
42.6
147.3
39.7
50.6
1,088
690
1.0

338.7
14.5
141.4
85.8
21.4
212.3
56.0
156.3
43.7
156.4
38.6
43.5
1,096
690
1.0

324.7
12.0
106.1
80.1
20.9
220.5
56.2
164.3
41.2
156.9
39.0
44.4
1,046
690
1.0

333.4
12.5
108.3
80.6
19.4
219.4
63.3
156.2
43.2
164.3
41.3
45.0
1,068
727
2.0

342.8
13.0
105.8
81.0
19.8
218.6
55.5
163.0
41.9
157.5
37.9
44.0
1,062
690
1.0

324.7
12.0
106.1
80.1
20.9
220.5
56.2
164.3
41.2
156.9
39.0
44.4
1,046
690
1.0

Consumption (million barrels per day)


Natural Gas Liquids and Other Liquids
Pentanes Plus ........................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ........................................
Unfinished Oils .......................................................
Finished Liquid Fuels
Motor Gasoline .......................................................
Jet Fuel ...................................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil ....................................................
Residual Fuel Oil ....................................................
Other Oils (f) ...........................................................
Total Consumption ....................................................
Total Liquid Fuels Net Imports

- = no data available
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Crude oil production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).
(c) Net imports equals gross imports minus gross exports.
(d) Crude oil adjustment balances supply and consumption and was previously referred to as "Unaccounted for Crude Oil."
(e) Renewables and oxygenate production includes pentanes plus, oxygenates (excluding fuel ethanol), and renewable fuels.
(f) Petroleum products adjustment includes hydrogen/oxygenates/renewables/other hydrocarbons, motor gasoline blend components, and finished motor gasoline.
(g) "Other Oils" inludes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still
gas, and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
SPR: Strategic Petroleum Reserve
HC: Hydrocarbons
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 4b. U.S. Petroleum Refinery Balance (Million Barrels per Day, Except Utilization Factor)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
1st

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

Refinery and Blender Net Inputs


Crude OIl ............................................................
Pentanes Plus .....................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ....................................
Other Hydrocarbons/Oxygenates .......................
Unfinished Oils ....................................................
Motor Gasoline Blend Components ....................
Aviation Gasoline Blend Components ................
Total Refinery and Blender Net Inputs ...................

13.98
0.14
0.30
0.88
0.41
0.48
0.00
16.20

15.24
0.15
0.24
0.97
0.58
0.73
0.00
17.91

15.13
0.16
0.24
0.98
0.66
0.86
0.00
18.03

14.54
0.17
0.37
0.99
0.71
0.61
0.00
17.38

14.23
0.17
0.34
0.96
0.48
0.60
0.00
16.78

14.81
0.18
0.26
1.01
0.63
0.82
0.00
17.72

15.39
0.16
0.27
0.96
0.77
0.74
0.00
18.29

14.66
0.17
0.38
0.94
0.68
0.60
0.00
17.43

14.47
0.16
0.31
0.94
0.51
0.62
0.00
17.01

15.11
0.15
0.25
0.97
0.68
0.74
0.00
17.91

15.19
0.16
0.26
0.95
0.74
0.75
0.00
18.05

14.54
0.17
0.38
0.96
0.68
0.61
0.00
17.34

14.72
0.16
0.29
0.96
0.59
0.67
0.00
17.38

14.78
0.17
0.31
0.97
0.64
0.69
0.00
17.56

14.83
0.16
0.30
0.96
0.65
0.68
0.00
17.58

Refinery Processing Gain .................................

1.03

1.06

1.10

1.08

1.03

1.06

1.05

1.04

1.00

1.02

1.05

1.04

1.07

1.05

1.03

Refinery and Blender Net Production


Liquefied Petroleum Gas ....................................
Finished Motor Gasoline .....................................
Jet Fuel ...............................................................
Distillate Fuel ......................................................
Residual Fuel ......................................................
Other Oils (a) ......................................................
Total Refinery and Blender Net Production ...........

0.58
8.59
1.35
3.68
0.61
2.40
17.22

0.86
9.13
1.47
4.31
0.59
2.61
18.97

0.75
9.36
1.47
4.39
0.57
2.59
19.13

0.44
9.14
1.38
4.50
0.56
2.44
18.46

0.52
8.76
1.37
4.21
0.53
2.41
17.80

0.81
9.12
1.49
4.31
0.55
2.50
18.78

0.77
9.33
1.51
4.55
0.57
2.61
19.34

0.43
9.13
1.41
4.43
0.59
2.48
18.48

0.53
8.81
1.41
4.24
0.59
2.43
18.01

0.82
9.14
1.45
4.38
0.58
2.57
18.93

0.76
9.23
1.48
4.44
0.56
2.62
19.10

0.42
9.11
1.39
4.42
0.58
2.46
18.38

0.66
9.06
1.42
4.22
0.58
2.51
18.45

0.63
9.09
1.45
4.38
0.56
2.50
18.60

0.63
9.07
1.43
4.37
0.58
2.52
18.61

Refinery Distillation Inputs ...............................


Refinery Operable Distillation Capacity ..........
Refinery Distillation Utilization Factor ..............

14.32
17.59
0.81

15.66
17.57
0.89

15.65
17.59
0.89

15.06
17.55
0.86

14.69
17.70
0.83

15.14
17.72
0.85

15.75
17.74
0.89

15.03
17.74
0.85

14.81
17.74
0.84

15.42
17.74
0.87

15.52
17.74
0.88

14.91
17.74
0.84

15.18
17.57
0.86

15.15
17.72
0.86

15.17
17.74
0.86

- = no data available
(a) "Other Oils" includes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still
gas, and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
1st

2nd

Prices (cents per gallon)


Refiner Wholesale Price .......................
211
Gasoline Regular Grade Retail Prices Including Taxes
PADD 1 ..............................................
271
PADD 2 ..............................................
265
PADD 3 ..............................................
259
PADD 4 ..............................................
264
PADD 5 ..............................................
294
U.S. Average ...................................
271
Gasoline All Grades Including Taxes
277
End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)
Total Gasoline Inventories
PADD 1 ..............................................
56.8
PADD 2 ..............................................
55.2
PADD 3 ..............................................
74.9
PADD 4 ..............................................
5.9
PADD 5 ..............................................
32.3
U.S. Total ........................................
225.0
Finished Gasoline Inventories
U.S. Total ........................................
81.9
Gasoline Blending Components Inventories
U.S. Total ........................................
143.1

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

218

210

227

267

309

297

281

282

293

291

282

217

289

287

278
276
269
284
304
281
286

265
270
257
279
304
272
277

288
286
272
279
311
288
294

329
326
314
311
353
329
335

377
380
365
365
400
380
385

365
365
351
354
375
364
370

347
343
332
344
372
347
353

347
341
334
339
374
348
353

357
353
345
354
390
360
365

357
354
343
358
388
359
365

347
341
333
345
376
348
354

275
274
264
276
303
278
283

355
354
341
344
375
356
361

352
347
339
349
382
354
359

60.1
49.3
72.5
6.4
27.3
215.6

55.3
52.5
73.9
6.5
31.1
219.3

52.7
49.1
78.4
7.0
32.3
219.4

55.0
50.5
70.3
6.5
32.7
214.9

55.1
49.5
73.5
6.6
30.4
215.2

55.5
48.7
73.9
6.4
27.8
212.3

56.9
49.7
74.8
6.9
30.2
218.6

56.9
51.3
74.6
6.7
29.6
219.0

57.5
50.5
73.4
6.2
30.2
217.9

55.8
49.9
71.2
6.3
29.0
212.3

57.9
50.7
74.6
6.9
30.4
220.5

52.7
49.1
78.4
7.0
32.3
219.4

56.9
49.7
74.8
6.9
30.2
218.6

57.9
50.7
74.6
6.9
30.4
220.5

71.8

70.2

63.3

60.8

56.4

56.0

55.5

53.1

56.0

56.0

56.2

63.3

55.5

56.2

143.8

149.0

156.2

154.1

158.8

156.3

163.0

165.9

161.9

156.3

164.3

156.2

163.0

164.3

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD).
See Petroleum for Administration Defense District in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 5a. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Inventories


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010

2011

2012

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

60.59
1.16
6.67
52.77
57.93
11.42
9.87
1.55
3.12
8.29
0.20
16.26
82.68
0.70
83.38

61.27
0.98
6.22
54.07
58.56
9.65
8.44
1.22
2.77
6.89
0.16
-11.94
53.67
0.74
54.41

61.97
0.89
5.94
55.14
59.28
9.95
9.01
0.94
2.71
7.23
0.19
-8.22
58.48
-0.55
57.92

63.46
1.11
5.82
56.54
60.66
10.00
8.97
1.03
3.85
6.14
0.19
4.08
71.07
-2.08
68.99

63.83
1.12
5.60
57.10
61.05
11.07
9.84
1.23
4.50
6.57
0.20
16.97
84.80
-0.89
83.90

65.99
1.00
5.24
59.75
63.01
9.03
7.98
1.05
4.13
4.90
0.14
-10.45
57.61
-1.35
56.26

66.47
0.95
5.08
60.45
63.47
9.50
8.65
0.85
3.81
5.69
0.17
-9.60
59.73
-1.91
57.83

66.85
1.07
5.28
60.50
63.83
9.18
8.31
0.87
4.11
5.07
0.19
3.37
72.46
-1.07
71.40

66.31
1.14
5.35
59.82
63.32
10.53
9.34
1.19
4.47
6.06
0.19
14.41
83.98
-0.09
83.89

66.80
0.94
5.40
60.47
63.79
8.85
7.87
0.98
4.19
4.66
0.16
-11.67
56.94
-0.94
56.01

67.03
0.97
5.09
60.97
64.01
9.20
8.36
0.84
4.01
5.18
0.17
-9.26
60.09
-1.00
59.10

67.57
1.09
5.20
61.28
64.52
8.76
7.88
0.87
4.27
4.49
0.19
3.99
73.19
-1.45
71.74

61.83
1.03
6.16
54.64
59.12
10.25
9.07
1.18
3.11
7.13
0.18
-0.01
66.42
-0.31
66.11

65.79
1.03
5.30
59.46
62.85
9.69
8.69
1.00
4.14
5.56
0.17
0.01
68.59
-1.31
67.29

66.93
1.03
5.26
60.64
63.91
9.33
8.36
0.97
4.24
5.09
0.18
-0.64
68.54
-0.87
67.67

Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)


Residential ...................................
26.67
Commercial .................................
14.80
Industrial ......................................
19.70
Electric Power (c) .........................
16.37
Lease and Plant Fuel ...................
3.58
Pipeline and Distribution Use .......
2.18
Vehicle Use .................................
0.09
Total Consumption ..........................
83.38

7.32
5.73
17.12
19.11
3.62
1.43
0.09
54.41

3.76
4.24
17.01
27.66
3.66
1.52
0.09
57.92

16.73
10.46
18.53
17.62
3.75
1.81
0.09
68.99

26.14
14.72
20.20
16.79
3.77
2.20
0.09
83.90

7.52
5.87
17.73
19.68
3.90
1.47
0.09
56.26

3.58
3.93
17.27
27.44
3.92
1.60
0.09
57.83

17.39
10.58
18.69
18.80
3.95
1.91
0.09
71.40

25.67
14.46
20.25
17.18
3.91
2.33
0.09
83.89

6.70
5.54
17.71
20.42
3.94
1.60
0.09
56.01

3.62
3.95
17.42
28.43
3.96
1.62
0.09
59.10

17.40
10.63
19.05
18.66
3.99
1.91
0.09
71.74

13.57
8.78
18.08
20.21
3.65
1.73
0.09
66.11

13.61
8.75
18.46
20.70
3.88
1.79
0.09
67.29

13.33
8.64
18.60
21.18
3.95
1.87
0.09
67.67

End-of-period Inventories (billion cubic feet)


Working Gas Inventory ................
1,662
Producing Region (d) ................
627
East Consuming Region (d) ......
744
West Consuming Region (d) .....
291

2,741
962
1,330
450

3,500
1,092
1,913
495

3,107
1,077
1,591
439

1,581
738
618
225

2,530
992
1,188
350

3,413
1,081
1,853
479

3,103
1,049
1,644
410

1,791
764
754
274

2,853
1,037
1,394
422

3,705
1,163
2,047
496

3,338
1,116
1,774
449

3,107
1,077
1,591
439

3,103
1,049
1,644
410

3,338
1,116
1,774
449

Supply (billion cubic feet per day)


Total Marketed Production ............
Alaska ......................................
Federal GOM (a) .......................
Lower 48 States (excl GOM) .....
Total Dry Gas Production .............
Gross Imports ..............................
Pipeline ....................................
LNG ..........................................
Gross Exports ..............................
Net Imports ..................................
Supplemental Gaseous Fuels ......
Net Inventory Withdrawals ...........
Total Supply ....................................
Balancing Item (b) ..........................
Total Primary Supply .......................

2010

Year
2011

1st

2012

- = no data available
(a) Marketed production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico.
(b) The balancing item represents the difference between the sum of the components of natural gas supply and the sum of components of natural gas demand.
(c) Natural gas used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(d) For a list of States in each inventory region refer toMethodology for EIA Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Estimates (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/methodology.html).
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
LNG: liquefied natural gas.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; and Electric Power Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
1st
Wholesale/Spot
U.S. Average Wellhead ......
Henry Hub Spot Price ........
Residential
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
Commercial
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
Industrial
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

4.79
5.30

4.07
4.45

4.11
4.41

3.67
3.91

4.06
4.31

4.10
4.50

4.08
4.28

3.88
4.22

3.95
4.38

3.78
4.32

3.93
4.32

4.35
4.69

4.15
4.52

4.03
4.33

4.00
4.43

14.33
12.79
9.54
9.08
12.61
10.50
9.80
9.24
10.43
10.59

15.56
15.17
12.24
11.90
18.74
14.81
14.06
9.83
10.47
12.55

17.73
18.46
16.66
16.65
24.07
17.75
18.30
13.03
11.10
15.49

14.29
12.74
9.37
9.34
12.28
10.73
10.22
9.25
9.89
10.56

13.99
11.85
8.87
8.83
11.97
9.91
8.60
8.87
9.98
9.97

14.28
14.08
10.97
11.04
17.38
13.69
14.31
9.77
10.91
11.94

17.99
18.85
16.47
16.96
24.16
18.32
18.67
13.26
10.93
16.28

15.06
14.21
10.21
9.58
15.17
12.76
11.24
9.35
10.12
11.74

14.40
12.89
9.39
8.83
13.25
11.95
9.96
8.45
10.21
10.73

15.27
14.23
11.49
11.42
17.88
15.01
14.27
9.46
10.13
12.41

18.33
18.31
16.83
17.55
24.86
19.17
19.04
13.29
10.89
16.39

15.68
14.57
11.09
10.27
16.05
13.53
11.89
9.92
10.76
12.39

14.78
13.46
10.24
9.92
13.71
11.33
11.01
9.63
10.37
11.19

14.65
13.31
10.01
9.81
14.35
11.58
10.75
9.51
10.32
11.23

15.19
13.92
10.61
10.08
15.40
13.13
11.76
9.42
10.43
11.87

11.68
10.76
8.85
8.36
10.53
9.42
8.52
8.33
9.48
9.31

11.68
9.77
9.24
8.38
10.74
10.12
9.09
8.11
8.97
9.26

11.45
9.51
9.67
9.53
10.74
10.23
9.19
8.89
9.21
9.63

11.01
9.70
8.14
7.70
9.50
9.08
7.62
8.12
9.10
8.66

11.14
9.85
8.42
7.93
9.80
8.80
7.33
7.99
9.15
8.74

10.64
9.55
8.98
8.44
10.82
9.55
8.58
7.98
9.19
9.14

11.21
9.53
9.72
9.63
11.26
10.62
9.28
8.85
9.04
9.81

11.88
10.69
8.80
7.90
11.11
10.56
8.80
8.35
9.17
9.60

11.92
10.35
8.70
8.00
10.75
9.96
8.14
8.06
9.00
9.31

12.03
9.98
9.14
8.18
11.01
10.40
8.51
7.82
8.39
9.34

12.06
9.96
9.61
9.70
11.34
10.96
9.37
8.77
8.71
9.90

12.48
11.12
9.34
8.38
11.55
11.23
9.32
8.61
9.65
10.08

11.47
10.15
8.76
8.28
10.28
9.51
8.50
8.29
9.21
9.14

11.26
10.00
8.72
8.13
10.65
9.57
8.23
8.19
9.15
9.20

12.09
10.45
9.02
8.26
11.12
10.47
8.68
8.25
9.00
9.62

11.41
10.04
7.98
6.73
7.61
7.21
5.58
7.32
7.77
6.51

9.74
9.01
7.01
5.65
6.14
5.64
4.36
6.36
7.01
4.98

9.07
9.01
6.96
5.53
6.28
5.61
4.59
6.59
7.01
5.07

10.21
9.54
6.88
5.74
6.09
5.44
3.98
6.40
6.92
4.89

10.67
9.58
7.39
6.28
6.52
5.83
4.24
6.81
7.45
5.41

9.81
9.27
7.19
5.75
6.24
5.58
4.46
6.42
7.22
5.13

10.09
9.08
7.33
5.47
7.11
6.34
4.75
7.09
7.14
5.38

11.24
10.20
7.16
5.85
7.37
6.79
4.43
7.75
7.96
5.57

11.97
10.00
7.49
6.32
7.34
6.92
4.41
7.67
7.75
5.76

11.19
8.63
7.09
5.26
6.69
6.11
4.63
6.61
6.40
5.26

10.61
8.72
7.35
5.45
7.18
6.59
4.71
7.01
6.49
5.32

11.82
10.57
7.65
6.18
7.87
7.29
4.79
7.96
8.03
5.91

10.37
9.60
7.38
6.00
6.61
6.06
4.62
6.72
7.21
5.40

10.59
9.64
7.28
5.85
6.86
6.17
4.48
7.02
7.47
5.38

11.55
9.73
7.45
5.87
7.30
6.76
4.64
7.39
7.26
5.58

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130.
Natural gas Henry Hub spot price from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 6. U.S. Coal Supply, Consumption, and Inventories


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
1st

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

Supply (million short tons)


Production ........................................
Appalachia ....................................
Interior ..........................................
Western ........................................
Primary Inventory Withdrawals ..........
Imports ............................................
Exports ............................................
Metallurgical Coal ..........................
Steam Coal ...................................
Total Primary Supply ...........................

265.3
84.4
37.7
143.3
-2.4
4.8
17.8
14.2
3.6
249.9

265.1
84.4
37.8
142.8
1.5
5.1
22.0
15.6
6.4
249.7

278.2
83.5
41.4
153.3
6.2
4.7
21.1
13.0
8.0
268.0

276.6
83.8
40.7
152.1
0.3
4.8
20.9
13.3
7.6
260.8

273.6
87.3
41.5
144.8
4.8
3.4
26.6
17.2
9.5
255.2

258.1
84.2
38.3
135.7
-1.7
3.5
27.0
17.8
9.1
232.9

260.4
81.3
38.4
140.7
1.0
4.5
23.3
15.7
7.7
242.5

269.1
86.0
40.2
143.0
1.2
4.6
22.1
15.1
7.1
252.7

269.3
80.5
38.3
150.5
-4.6
4.4
19.5
15.2
4.3
249.6

256.5
79.0
36.7
140.8
0.5
4.4
23.1
15.8
7.2
238.3

270.8
83.4
36.7
150.7
3.8
5.2
22.5
14.0
8.5
257.3

264.3
81.7
36.3
146.3
-0.2
4.8
21.5
14.3
7.3
247.3

1085.3
336.1
157.6
591.6
5.6
19.4
81.7
56.1
25.6
1028.5

1061.2
338.7
158.3
564.2
5.2
15.9
99.1
65.8
33.3
983.3

1060.9
324.6
148.0
588.3
-0.5
18.8
86.6
59.4
27.3
992.6

Secondary Inventory Withdrawals .....


Waste Coal (a) .................................
Total Supply ........................................

13.1
3.1
266.1

-3.8
3.3
249.1

18.1
3.2
289.4

-12.5
3.2
251.6

7.2
3.2
265.6

2.5
3.2
238.5

16.4
3.2
262.0

-4.5
3.2
251.4

7.3
3.2
260.1

-9.9
3.2
231.5

12.6
3.2
273.1

-4.5
3.2
246.0

14.9
12.7
1056.1

21.6
12.7
1017.6

5.5
12.8
1010.8

Consumption (million short tons)


Coke Plants .....................................
Electric Power Sector (b) ..................
Retail and Other Industry ..................
Residential and Commercial ..........
Other Industrial .............................
Total Consumption .............................

4.9
246.3
13.4
1.0
12.4
264.6

5.4
229.8
12.3
0.6
11.7
247.4

5.5
267.9
12.8
0.6
12.1
286.1

5.4
231.6
13.2
0.8
12.4
250.1

5.2
235.1
14.4
1.0
13.3
254.7

5.7
223.7
12.4
0.6
11.8
241.8

6.7
263.9
12.4
0.6
11.8
283.1

6.4
232.2
12.9
0.8
12.0
251.4

6.3
240.3
13.5
1.0
12.5
260.1

6.0
212.6
13.0
0.8
12.2
231.5

6.6
253.8
12.7
0.8
11.8
273.1

6.2
226.5
13.3
1.2
12.1
246.0

21.1
975.6
51.6
3.1
48.5
1048.3

24.0
954.9
52.1
3.1
49.0
1030.9

25.1
933.2
52.5
3.9
48.6
1010.8

1.5

1.7

3.2

1.4

11.0

-3.2

-21.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

7.8

-13.3

0.0

End-of-period Inventories (million short tons)


Primary Inventories (d) ......................
50.2
Secondary Inventories ......................
184.0
Electric Power Sector ....................
177.8
Retail and General Industry ...........
4.2
Coke Plants ..................................
1.6

48.7
187.8
181.1
4.3
2.0

42.4
169.7
162.8
4.5
1.9

42.2
182.2
175.2
4.5
1.9

37.3
174.9
167.0
5.5
2.0

39.1
172.4
165.8
4.1
2.1

38.1
156.1
148.9
4.6
2.0

36.9
160.6
153.1
4.9
2.1

41.5
153.3
146.7
4.2
1.8

41.0
163.3
155.9
4.5
2.2

37.2
150.6
142.8
5.1
2.2

37.4
155.1
147.0
5.4
2.2

42.2
182.2
175.2
4.5
1.9

36.9
160.6
153.1
4.9
2.1

37.4
155.1
147.0
5.4
2.2

5.58

5.58

5.59

5.60

5.57

5.57

5.57

5.57

5.70

5.70

5.70

5.70

5.59

5.57

5.70

0.234

0.253

0.245

0.237

0.257

0.261

0.267

0.250

0.261

0.273

0.264

0.254

0.242

0.259

0.263

2.26

2.26

2.28

2.25

2.35

2.41

2.39

2.33

2.40

2.38

2.35

2.31

2.26

2.37

2.36

Discrepancy (c)

Coal Market Indicators


Coal Miner Productivity
(Tons per hour) .............................
Total Raw Steel Production
(Million short tons per day) ............
Cost of Coal to Electric Utilities
(Dollars per million Btu) .................

- = no data available
(a) Waste coal includes waste coal and cloal slurry reprocessed into briquettes.
(b) Coal used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(c) The discrepancy reflects an unaccounted-for shipper and receiver reporting difference, assumed to be zero in the forecast period.
(d) Primary stocks are held at the mines and distribution points.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Quarterly Coal Report , DOE/EIA-0121; and Electric Power Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7a. U.S. Electricity Industry Overview


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
1st
2nd
Electricity Supply (billion kilowatthours per day)
Electricity Generation ....................
11.01
10.90
Electric Power Sector (a) ............
10.61
10.50
Industrial Sector .........................
0.38
0.38
Commercial Sector .....................
0.02
0.02
Net Imports .................................
0.12
0.07
Total Supply ..................................
11.13
10.97
Losses and Unaccounted for (b) ...
0.52
0.95
Electricity Consumption (billion kilowatthours per day)
Retail Sales ..................................
10.25
9.66
Residential Sector ......................
4.26
3.41
Commercial Sector .....................
3.45
3.57
Industrial Sector .........................
2.51
2.66
Transportation Sector .................
0.02
0.02
Direct Use (c) ................................
0.37
0.36
Total Consumption .......................
10.61
10.02
Prices
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)
Coal ...........................................
2.26
2.26
Natural Gas ...............................
6.06
4.89
Residual Fuel Oil ........................
12.10
12.36
Distillate Fuel Oil ........................
15.84
16.48
End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)
Residential Sector ......................
10.88
11.90
Commercial Sector .....................
9.87
10.30
Industrial Sector .........................
6.53
6.75

2011
3rd

4th

1st

12.65
12.22
0.40
0.02
0.06
12.71
0.70

10.58
10.19
0.37
0.02
0.04
10.62
0.70

11.04
10.65
0.37
0.02
0.08
11.12
0.52

11.62
4.74
4.09
2.76
0.02
0.39
12.01

9.56
3.48
3.45
2.61
0.02
0.36
9.92

2.28
4.88
12.36
16.18
12.02
10.71
7.17

2nd

2012
2010

Year
2011

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2012

10.93
10.54
0.37
0.02
0.10
11.03
0.85

12.64
12.21
0.40
0.02
0.12
12.76
0.78

10.72
10.32
0.38
0.02
0.08
10.80
0.74

11.11
10.70
0.40
0.02
0.08
11.19
0.58

11.02
10.61
0.39
0.02
0.08
11.10
0.89

12.65
12.21
0.42
0.02
0.11
12.76
0.79

10.78
10.37
0.39
0.02
0.07
10.85
0.74

11.29
10.88
0.38
0.02
0.07
11.36
0.72

11.33
10.93
0.38
0.02
0.10
11.43
0.73

11.40
10.97
0.40
0.02
0.08
11.48
0.75

10.25
4.15
3.45
2.62
0.02
0.35
10.60

9.82
3.52
3.58
2.70
0.02
0.35
10.17

11.60
4.68
4.12
2.78
0.02
0.38
11.98

9.69
3.51
3.54
2.63
0.02
0.36
10.05

10.23
4.08
3.48
2.65
0.02
0.38
10.61

9.84
3.46
3.61
2.75
0.02
0.37
10.21

11.57
4.63
4.08
2.83
0.02
0.40
11.97

9.74
3.54
3.52
2.67
0.02
0.37
10.12

10.27
3.97
3.64
2.64
0.02
0.37
10.64

10.34
3.96
3.67
2.68
0.02
0.36
10.70

10.35
3.93
3.67
2.73
0.02
0.38
10.73

2.25
4.69
14.19
17.94

2.35
5.05
15.88
20.99

2.41
4.94
18.42
23.37

2.39
4.97
18.19
23.26

2.33
4.92
17.96
23.22

2.40
5.09
18.25
22.96

2.38
4.87
18.49
22.91

2.35
4.93
18.55
23.09

2.31
5.36
18.67
23.34

2.26
5.08
12.63
16.60

2.37
4.97
17.70
22.68

2.36
5.04
18.50
23.08

11.50
10.06
6.67

11.24
10.01
6.68

11.97
10.37
6.83

12.35
10.90
7.30

11.73
10.24
6.77

11.23
10.06
6.69

12.14
10.51
6.79

12.44
11.02
7.17

11.82
10.35
6.73

11.58
10.26
6.79

11.84
10.40
6.90

11.92
10.51
6.85

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) Includes transmission and distribution losses, data collection time-frame differences, and estimation error.
(c) Direct Use represents commercial and industrial facility use of onsite net electricity generation; and electrical sales or transfers to adjacent or colocated facilities
for which revenue information is not available. See Table 7.6 of the EIA Monthly Energy Review .
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7b. U.S. Regional Electricity Retail Sales (Million Kilowatthours per Day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
1st
Residential Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Commercial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Industrial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Total All Sectors (a)
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

141
394
579
337
1,129
405
595
243
424
15
4,261

114
326
456
250
878
291
514
227
346
13
3,414

150
444
639
350
1,232
428
771
325
391
13
4,742

122
335
481
261
891
294
467
225
390
15
3,482

145
405
577
331
1,042
373
574
248
441
15
4,152

116
329
457
252
910
295
566
227
354
13
3,518

146
430
627
354
1,178
416
811
310
396
13
4,681

126
343
485
268
877
287
475
233
398
15
3,506

143
398
575
326
1,016
371
545
245
444
15
4,079

115
325
455
256
875
294
530
235
358
13
3,457

142
423
595
341
1,184
415
762
332
418
13
4,626

124
342
495
273
882
298
484
230
393
15
3,536

132
375
539
300
1,032
354
587
255
388
14
3,975

133
377
537
301
1,002
343
607
254
397
14
3,965

131
372
530
299
990
345
580
261
404
14
3,925

123
443
490
266
792
220
442
234
420
17
3,447

120
434
491
267
852
228
479
251
432
16
3,571

137
506
555
302
965
271
578
285
478
17
4,092

119
425
481
261
804
213
450
241
442
17
3,453

123
435
497
268
789
216
447
237
425
18
3,454

119
421
486
262
861
226
504
250
432
17
3,577

138
502
558
303
968
270
592
283
488
17
4,119

123
434
491
268
824
216
463
247
452
17
3,535

126
447
498
266
802
214
447
235
428
17
3,481

122
434
499
268
860
226
496
254
438
17
3,613

136
495
549
301
969
263
578
286
488
18
4,084

121
430
488
265
824
213
467
245
444
18
3,515

125
452
504
274
853
233
487
253
443
17
3,642

126
448
508
275
861
232
502
254
449
17
3,673

126
451
508
275
864
229
497
255
450
17
3,674

76
178
523
222
360
336
397
195
214
13
2,514

77
186
544
235
397
334
432
209
228
14
2,655

83
192
551
245
406
334
464
232
245
14
2,765

76
181
534
233
379
334
421
207
229
14
2,607

75
195
539
233
377
343
420
204
221
14
2,620

77
194
545
237
400
342
448
217
233
13
2,705

81
192
540
243
399
350
469
240
250
14
2,778

75
179
531
236
377
346
429
211
229
14
2,629

75
186
542
234
379
360
430
209
223
13
2,652

77
190
549
240
401
357
457
228
233
14
2,746

80
196
557
252
407
359
474
244
251
14
2,835

76
185
535
241
380
364
434
216
226
14
2,671

78
184
538
234
385
334
429
211
229
14
2,636

77
190
539
238
388
345
442
218
233
14
2,683

77
189
546
242
392
360
449
224
233
14
2,726

342
1,027
1,594
825
2,286
960
1,433
672
1,061
45
10,246

312
957
1,492
752
2,130
854
1,425
687
1,008
43
9,660

371
1,152
1,746
897
2,606
1,032
1,813
842
1,117
44
11,620

318
952
1,498
755
2,078
842
1,338
673
1,063
45
9,562

345
1,047
1,614
832
2,211
932
1,441
688
1,089
46
10,247

313
954
1,490
751
2,174
863
1,519
693
1,020
43
9,820

366
1,135
1,727
900
2,548
1,036
1,873
833
1,137
44
11,599

325
968
1,509
772
2,081
849
1,368
691
1,081
46
9,691

346
1,043
1,617
827
2,201
945
1,422
690
1,098
46
10,235

315
960
1,505
764
2,141
876
1,484
717
1,032
44
9,837

360
1,127
1,703
895
2,564
1,038
1,815
862
1,160
45
11,568

322
969
1,519
779
2,090
875
1,386
691
1,066
46
9,744

336
1,022
1,583
808
2,275
922
1,503
719
1,063
45
10,274

337
1,026
1,585
814
2,254
920
1,551
727
1,082
45
10,341

336
1,025
1,586
816
2,249
934
1,527
740
1,089
45
10,347

- = no data available
(a) Total retail sales to all sectors includes residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sector sales.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Retail Sales represents total retail electricity sales by electric utilities and power marketers.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7c. U.S. Regional Electricity Prices (Cents per Kilowatthour)


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
1st
Residential Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............
Commercial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............
Industrial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............
All Sectors (a)
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ...............
W. N. Central ..............
S. Atlantic ....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ..............
Mountain .....................
Pacific .........................
U.S. Average ............

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

16.56
14.82
10.50
8.33
10.46
8.81
10.28
9.71
12.03
10.88

16.60
16.16
11.88
10.08
11.31
9.90
11.00
10.83
12.47
11.90

16.46
16.65
11.82
10.61
11.42
10.02
10.79
11.22
13.37
12.02

16.43
15.39
11.38
9.45
10.94
10.05
10.46
9.97
12.20
11.50

15.99
15.20
11.01
9.06
10.86
9.77
10.08
9.76
12.02
11.24

16.13
15.96
12.02
10.49
11.51
10.31
10.77
10.84
12.49
11.97

16.87
16.96
12.11
10.96
11.80
10.44
11.09
11.33
13.81
12.35

16.79
15.42
11.55
9.58
11.35
10.30
10.56
10.30
12.17
11.73

16.86
15.04
10.94
8.96
10.74
9.50
10.25
9.95
11.97
11.23

17.08
16.39
12.15
10.49
11.52
10.41
10.94
11.07
12.70
12.14

16.94
17.35
12.19
10.94
11.84
10.40
10.98
11.49
14.04
12.44

16.89
15.78
11.65
9.64
11.39
10.27
10.47
10.47
12.41
11.82

16.51
15.79
11.39
9.61
11.03
9.66
10.64
10.50
12.51
11.58

16.45
15.92
11.67
10.03
11.39
10.20
10.67
10.61
12.61
11.84

16.94
16.17
11.72
10.01
11.39
10.13
10.69
10.81
12.78
11.92

15.27
13.23
9.17
7.08
9.13
8.86
8.95
8.20
10.78
9.87

14.71
13.93
9.51
7.93
9.33
9.33
8.80
9.04
12.20
10.30

15.33
14.60
9.59
8.60
9.42
9.54
8.74
9.25
14.05
10.71

14.46
13.43
9.28
7.58
9.35
9.75
8.53
8.40
11.40
10.06

14.41
13.23
9.29
7.60
9.45
9.67
8.57
8.32
10.97
10.01

14.40
13.55
9.64
8.43
9.55
9.80
8.66
9.04
12.33
10.37

15.08
14.76
9.57
8.79
9.75
9.90
9.06
9.34
14.07
10.90

14.51
13.24
9.31
7.63
9.67
9.86
8.69
8.76
11.81
10.24

14.95
13.08
9.18
7.49
9.42
9.44
8.82
8.48
11.25
10.06

14.91
13.90
9.51
8.32
9.58
9.76
8.86
9.17
12.70
10.51

15.21
15.03
9.66
8.88
9.83
9.88
9.01
9.42
14.38
11.02

14.62
13.49
9.40
7.73
9.75
9.86
8.66
8.85
12.10
10.35

14.96
13.83
9.40
7.83
9.31
9.38
8.75
8.76
12.17
10.26

14.62
13.74
9.46
8.14
9.61
9.81
8.77
8.89
12.36
10.40

14.93
13.91
9.44
8.13
9.66
9.74
8.85
9.01
12.66
10.51

12.33
8.50
6.34
5.43
6.45
5.31
6.08
5.69
7.29
6.53

12.91
8.52
6.48
5.74
6.53
5.85
6.00
6.17
7.84
6.75

12.78
8.71
6.71
6.45
7.00
6.33
6.14
6.87
8.73
7.17

12.62
8.30
6.52
5.67
6.54
5.97
5.80
5.65
7.68
6.67

12.68
8.62
6.41
5.75
6.53
5.85
5.77
5.60
7.43
6.68

12.62
8.38
6.49
6.10
6.73
6.07
6.00
6.07
7.74
6.83

12.93
8.58
6.90
6.65
7.19
6.36
6.40
6.80
8.68
7.30

12.88
8.34
6.54
5.74
6.69
5.95
6.05
5.74
7.75
6.77

12.77
8.77
6.46
5.73
6.62
5.78
5.88
5.77
7.42
6.69

12.59
8.40
6.50
6.00
6.52
5.88
6.02
6.25
7.88
6.79

12.78
8.35
6.74
6.54
6.90
6.20
6.27
6.94
8.79
7.17

12.87
8.25
6.51
5.72
6.62
5.86
6.01
5.83
7.90
6.73

12.66
8.51
6.51
5.84
6.64
5.87
6.01
6.13
7.91
6.79

12.78
8.48
6.59
6.07
6.79
6.06
6.07
6.08
7.93
6.90

12.75
8.44
6.55
6.00
6.67
5.93
6.05
6.22
8.02
6.85

15.12
13.01
8.72
7.14
9.37
7.60
8.71
8.02
10.57
9.47

14.92
13.63
9.13
7.96
9.63
8.16
8.74
8.76
11.30
9.89

15.19
14.40
9.50
8.80
9.99
8.70
8.95
9.35
12.64
10.40

14.74
13.13
8.97
7.64
9.52
8.36
8.35
8.08
10.89
9.66

14.66
13.13
8.94
7.66
9.62
8.30
8.35
8.03
10.76
9.66

14.57
13.32
9.22
8.38
9.85
8.50
8.67
8.70
11.33
9.97

15.29
14.53
9.65
9.06
10.30
8.92
9.27
9.35
12.78
10.63

14.98
13.09
9.05
7.73
9.84
8.41
8.51
8.36
11.08
9.84

15.23
13.04
8.89
7.57
9.55
8.07
8.48
8.18
10.75
9.65

15.10
13.63
9.21
8.32
9.80
8.39
8.73
8.87
11.60
10.04

15.33
14.71
9.59
9.01
10.30
8.82
9.12
9.51
13.03
10.64

15.05
13.27
9.11
7.78
9.88
8.34
8.46
8.44
11.31
9.89

15.00
13.58
9.09
7.91
9.64
8.21
8.71
8.60
11.37
9.88

14.89
13.56
9.23
8.23
9.92
8.55
8.74
8.65
11.51
10.05

15.18
13.69
9.21
8.19
9.90
8.42
8.73
8.80
11.70
10.08

- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Volume-weighted average of retail prices to residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric
Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7d. U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel and Sector (Billion Kilowatthours per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
Electric Power Sector (a)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Other Gases ................................
Petroleum ....................................
Residual Fuel Oil .......................
Distillate Fuel Oil .......................
Petroleum Coke ........................
Other Petroleum .......................
Nuclear ........................................
Pumped Storage Hydroelectric .....
Renewables:
Conventional Hydroelectric ........
Geothermal ...............................
Solar .........................................
Wind .........................................
Wood and Wood Waste ............
Other Renewables ....................
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Subtotal Electric Power Sector .....
Commercial Sector (c)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Petroleum ....................................
Renewables (d) ............................
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Subtotal Commercial Sector .........
Industrial Sector (c)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Other Gases ................................
Petroleum ....................................
Renewables:
Conventional Hydroelectric ........
Wood and Wood Waste ............
Other Renewables (e) ...............
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Subtotal Industrial Sector .............
Total All Sectors ...........................

2011
2nd

2012
3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

5.028
2.118
0.009
0.074
0.020
0.015
0.034
0.005
2.230
-0.016

4.436
2.479
0.010
0.080
0.028
0.015
0.034
0.003
2.181
-0.015

5.206
3.467
0.010
0.088
0.034
0.014
0.037
0.003
2.321
-0.019

4.668
2.308
0.009
0.076
0.023
0.016
0.033
0.003
2.152
-0.015

5.017
2.461
0.008
0.094
0.039
0.020
0.033
0.002
2.211
-0.011

4.908
2.510
0.009
0.079
0.029
0.016
0.032
0.003
2.135
-0.015

4.835
2.595
0.010
0.080
0.026
0.015
0.034
0.004
2.221
-0.016

0.637
0.044
0.002
0.319
0.030
0.044
0.020
10.316

0.754
0.045
0.003
0.351
0.032
0.046
0.020
10.696

0.890
0.044
0.009
0.400
0.029
0.049
0.021
10.614

0.667
0.046
0.010
0.304
0.039
0.052
0.021
12.211

0.643
0.045
0.003
0.374
0.037
0.049
0.020
10.370

0.700
0.043
0.004
0.259
0.032
0.044
0.019
10.880

0.844
0.045
0.005
0.319
0.029
0.045
0.019
10.932

0.738
0.045
0.006
0.357
0.034
0.049
0.020
10.975

0.003
0.014
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.024

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.004
0.002
0.022

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.004
0.002
0.022

0.003
0.011
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022

0.003
0.014
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.024

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.004
0.002
0.022

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.023

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022

0.047
0.211
0.022
0.005

0.052
0.228
0.025
0.006

0.049
0.214
0.023
0.006

0.051
0.227
0.024
0.006

0.051
0.220
0.024
0.005

0.055
0.237
0.026
0.006

0.051
0.220
0.024
0.006

0.051
0.216
0.023
0.006

0.049
0.216
0.023
0.006

0.052
0.226
0.024
0.006

0.006
0.067
0.002
0.009
0.370
10.928

0.003
0.074
0.002
0.011
0.401
12.639

0.004
0.073
0.002
0.009
0.380
10.718

0.006
0.072
0.002
0.009
0.397
11.115

0.006
0.071
0.002
0.010
0.389
11.025

0.003
0.077
0.002
0.011
0.418
12.653

0.004
0.075
0.002
0.010
0.392
10.784

0.004
0.072
0.002
0.010
0.385
11.288

0.005
0.070
0.002
0.009
0.380
11.334

0.005
0.074
0.002
0.010
0.399
11.396

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5.181
2.011
0.009
0.094
0.034
0.023
0.034
0.003
2.249
-0.008

4.750
2.306
0.009
0.095
0.042
0.016
0.034
0.002
2.116
-0.008

5.450
3.329
0.008
0.111
0.054
0.019
0.035
0.002
2.314
-0.015

4.688
2.188
0.006
0.078
0.027
0.020
0.028
0.003
2.164
-0.014

4.887
2.059
0.008
0.082
0.025
0.017
0.037
0.003
2.258
-0.011

4.619
2.349
0.008
0.068
0.028
0.017
0.026
0.002
1.943
-0.016

5.364
3.316
0.009
0.095
0.042
0.016
0.033
0.003
2.248
-0.019

4.757
2.305
0.009
0.071
0.022
0.014
0.032
0.003
2.093
-0.015

0.697
0.044
0.001
0.235
0.032
0.042
0.017
10.605

0.797
0.043
0.005
0.291
0.029
0.045
0.020
10.497

0.658
0.042
0.005
0.221
0.034
0.044
0.020
12.221

0.647
0.043
0.002
0.290
0.030
0.045
0.019
10.187

0.900
0.046
0.003
0.329
0.030
0.042
0.017
10.650

1.050
0.044
0.007
0.372
0.025
0.047
0.019
10.537

0.794
0.044
0.007
0.257
0.031
0.047
0.020
12.214

0.003
0.011
0.000
0.004
0.002
0.022

0.003
0.011
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022

0.003
0.014
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.025

0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022

0.003
0.011
0.000
0.004
0.002
0.022

0.002
0.011
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.021

0.052
0.216
0.022
0.007

0.047
0.211
0.023
0.007

0.055
0.228
0.024
0.007

0.048
0.211
0.022
0.006

0.049
0.209
0.022
0.006

0.006
0.072
0.002
0.009
0.384
11.011

0.005
0.072
0.002
0.010
0.377
10.897

0.003
0.075
0.002
0.011
0.404
12.650

0.004
0.072
0.002
0.009
0.374
10.583

0.005
0.067
0.002
0.008
0.368
11.039

1st

- = no data available
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) "Other" includes non-biogenic municipal solid waste, batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, tires and miscellaneous technologies.
(c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants.
(d) "Renewables" in commercial sector includes wood, black liquor, other wood waste, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass,
geothermal, solar thermal, photovoltaic energy and wind.
(e) "Other Renewables" in industrial sector includes black liquor, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass, geothermal, solar thermal,
photovoltaic energy and wind.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Values of 0.000 may indicate positive levels of generation that are less than 0.0005 billion kilowatthours per day.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual ,
DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7e. U.S. Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation by Sector


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
1st
Electric Power Sector (a)
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............
Residual Fuel Oil (mmb/d) .....
Distillate Fuel Oil (mmb/d) .....
Petroleum Coke (mmst/d) ......
Other Petroleum (mmb/d) ......
Commercial Sector (c)
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............
Industrial Sector (c)
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............
Total All Sectors
Coal (mmst/d) ...........................
Natural Gas (bcf/d) ....................
Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

2.72
15.48
0.17
0.06
0.04
0.07
0.01

2.51
18.25
0.17
0.07
0.03
0.07
0.00

2.90
26.72
0.20
0.09
0.04
0.07
0.00

2.51
16.78
0.14
0.04
0.04
0.05
0.01

2.60
15.83
0.15
0.04
0.03
0.07
0.00

2.45
18.81
0.12
0.05
0.03
0.05
0.00

2.86
26.42
0.17
0.07
0.03
0.06
0.01

2.51
17.70
0.13
0.03
0.03
0.06
0.01

2.63
16.06
0.14
0.03
0.03
0.06
0.01

2.33
19.39
0.14
0.05
0.03
0.07
0.01

2.75
27.29
0.16
0.06
0.03
0.07
0.01

2.45
17.55
0.14
0.04
0.03
0.06
0.01

2.66
19.33
0.17
0.07
0.04
0.06
0.00

2.60
19.71
0.14
0.05
0.03
0.06
0.01

2.54
20.09
0.14
0.04
0.03
0.07
0.01

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.11
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.11
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.09
0.00

0.00
0.11
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.00
0.10
0.00

0.02
1.48
0.01

0.02
1.44
0.01

0.02
1.57
0.01

0.02
1.44
0.01

0.02
1.48
0.01

0.02
1.47
0.01

0.02
1.57
0.01

0.02
1.46
0.01

0.02
1.60
0.01

0.02
1.53
0.01

0.02
1.63
0.01

0.02
1.50
0.01

0.02
1.48
0.01

0.02
1.49
0.01

0.02
1.56
0.01

2.75
17.05
0.18

2.53
19.79
0.18

2.93
28.40
0.21

2.53
18.32
0.15

2.62
17.40
0.16

2.47
20.36
0.13

2.88
28.09
0.18

2.53
19.25
0.13

2.65
17.76
0.14

2.35
21.01
0.15

2.77
29.02
0.17

2.47
19.14
0.14

2.68
20.91
0.18

2.63
21.30
0.15

2.56
21.75
0.15

End-of-period Fuel Inventories Held by Electric Power Sector


Coal (mmst) ..............................
177.8
181.1
162.8
Residual Fuel Oil (mmb) ............
18.7
17.4
17.4
Distillate Fuel Oil (mmb) ............
17.3
17.2
17.0
Petroleum Coke (mmb) .............
5.8
5.5
6.1

175.2
16.7
17.1
5.4

167.0
15.6
16.8
2.8

165.8
15.4
16.8
2.8

148.9
14.3
17.0
3.2

153.1
12.7
17.2
3.1

146.7
13.1
16.7
3.2

155.9
15.0
16.7
3.2

142.8
14.6
16.8
3.2

147.0
14.0
17.1
3.1

175.2
16.7
17.1
5.4

153.1
12.7
17.2
3.1

147.0
14.0
17.1
3.1

- = no data available
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) Petroleum category may include petroleum coke, which is converted from short tons to barrels by multiplying by 5.
(c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Physical Units: mmst/d = million short tons per day; mmb/d = million barrels per day; bcf/d = billion cubic feet per day; mmb = million barrels.
Values of 0.00 may indicate positive levels of fuel consumption that are less than 0.005 units per day.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 8. U.S. Renewable Energy Supply and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
1st
Supply
Hydroelectric Power (a) ...............
Geothermal .................................
Solar .............................................
Wind .............................................
Wood ............................................
Ethanol (b) .....................................
Biodiesel (b) ..................................
Other Renewables (c) ...................
Total ..........................................
Consumption
Electric Power Sector
Hydroelectric Power (a) ............
Geothermal ..............................
Solar ..........................................
Wind ..........................................
Wood and Wood Waste ...........
Other Renewables (c) ................
Subtotal ..................................
Industrial Sector
Hydroelectric Power (a) ............
Geothermal ..............................
Wood and Wood Waste ...........
Other Renewables (c) ................
Subtotal ..................................
Commercial Sector
Hydroelectric Power (a) ............
Geothermal ..............................
Wood and Wood Waste ...........
Other Renewables (c) ................
Subtotal ..................................
Residential Sector
Geothermal ..............................
Wood and Wood Waste ...........
Solar ..........................................
Subtotal ..................................
Transportation Sector
Ethanol (b) ..................................
Biodiesel (b) ...............................
Total Consumption ........................

2nd

2011
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

0.618
0.053
0.025
0.208
0.490
0.270
0.011
0.110
1.786

0.713
0.053
0.029
0.261
0.491
0.275
0.012
0.115
1.949

0.593
0.053
0.029
0.200
0.508
0.284
0.010
0.114
1.792

0.585
0.054
0.026
0.263
0.497
0.298
0.007
0.115
1.844

0.795
0.055
0.026
0.292
0.478
0.293
0.014
0.111
2.065

0.941
0.071
0.030
0.333
0.471
0.290
0.024
0.117
2.278

0.723
0.101
0.030
0.233
0.512
0.291
0.026
0.121
2.039

0.582
0.101
0.026
0.289
0.505
0.295
0.027
0.116
1.940

0.682
0.101
0.027
0.315
0.503
0.294
0.026
0.116
2.063

0.804
0.099
0.033
0.358
0.490
0.295
0.026
0.123
2.229

0.608
0.103
0.033
0.275
0.539
0.299
0.027
0.131
2.015

0.587
0.103
0.027
0.339
0.527
0.298
0.028
0.123
2.032

2.509
0.212
0.109
0.933
1.986
1.128
0.039
0.454
7.371

3.041
0.327
0.113
1.147
1.967
1.169
0.091
0.464
8.322

2.680
0.406
0.119
1.288
2.059
1.186
0.107
0.493
8.339

0.618
0.038
0.001
0.208
0.048
0.060
0.975

0.715
0.038
0.005
0.261
0.044
0.064
1.127

0.596
0.038
0.005
0.200
0.049
0.063
0.952

0.587
0.039
0.002
0.263
0.046
0.064
1.001

0.798
0.041
0.003
0.292
0.045
0.061
1.239

0.942
0.056
0.006
0.333
0.037
0.067
1.441

0.720
0.086
0.006
0.233
0.047
0.067
1.158

0.578
0.086
0.002
0.289
0.046
0.064
1.065

0.676
0.087
0.003
0.315
0.049
0.066
1.195

0.798
0.085
0.008
0.358
0.044
0.071
1.363

0.605
0.088
0.009
0.275
0.059
0.076
1.112

0.583
0.088
0.003
0.339
0.056
0.071
1.140

2.516
0.153
0.013
0.933
0.189
0.252
4.055

3.037
0.268
0.016
1.147
0.175
0.259
4.903

2.662
0.347
0.023
1.288
0.208
0.283
4.810

0.005
0.001
0.321
0.041
0.372

0.005
0.001
0.324
0.042
0.376

0.003
0.001
0.335
0.042
0.385

0.003
0.001
0.326
0.042
0.378

0.005
0.001
0.312
0.041
0.363

0.005
0.001
0.311
0.042
0.363

0.003
0.001
0.343
0.045
0.395

0.004
0.001
0.337
0.043
0.389

0.005
0.001
0.332
0.042
0.384

0.006
0.001
0.324
0.044
0.379

0.003
0.001
0.357
0.047
0.412

0.004
0.001
0.348
0.044
0.401

0.016
0.004
1.307
0.168
1.511

0.016
0.004
1.303
0.171
1.510

0.018
0.004
1.361
0.177
1.576

0.000
0.005
0.017
0.008
0.031

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.009
0.033

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032

0.000
0.005
0.017
0.008
0.031

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.031

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.009
0.032

0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032

0.001
0.019
0.070
0.034
0.127

0.001
0.018
0.071
0.033
0.127

0.001
0.018
0.071
0.033
0.128

0.009
0.104
0.024
0.136

0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.106
0.024
0.140

0.009
0.106
0.024
0.140

0.009
0.104
0.024
0.136

0.009
0.105
0.024
0.139

0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138

0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138

0.037
0.420
0.097
0.554

0.037
0.418
0.096
0.551

0.037
0.419
0.097
0.553

0.251
0.009

0.275
0.011

0.280
0.010

0.284
0.008

0.263
0.015

0.277
0.025

0.281
0.024

0.285
0.025

0.276
0.026

0.287
0.026

0.285
0.027

0.288
0.027

1.091
0.039

1.107
0.090

1.136
0.106

1.765

1.948

1.788

1.831

2.036

2.262

2.023

1.928

2.045

2.221

2.001

2.022

7.332

8.250

8.288

- = no data available
(a) Conventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy.
(b) Fuel ethanol and biodiesel supply represents domestic production only. Fuel ethanol and biodiesel consumption in the transportation sector includes production, stock change, and imports
less exports. Some biodiesel may be consumed in the residential s
(c) Other renewable energy sources include municipal solid waste from biogenic sources, landfill gas, sludge waste, agricultural byproducts, and other biomass.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226 and Renewable Energy Annual , DOE/EIA-0603; Petroleum
Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010

2011

2012
2010

Year
2011

2012

13,651

13,088

13,290

13,548

10,426

10,448

10,062

10,217

10,403

1,814

1,838

1,861

1,648

1,735

1,825

5.84

5.94

3.40

3.98

20.26

21.10

4.79

123.5

123.5

123.6

123.6

123.6

123.5

123.5

123.6

131.2

131.4

131.8

132.3

132.7

133.1

129.8

131.1

132.5

89.1

89.3

89.6

90.1

90.7

91.1

91.4

87.8

89.2

90.8

92.8
90.6
103.1
89.7

93.0
90.8
102.5
87.9

93.6
91.6
102.5
87.8

93.6
92.0
102.9
88.0

94.2
92.7
103.4
88.2

94.8
93.6
104.1
88.6

95.3
94.5
104.7
89.3

95.8
95.2
105.3
89.8

90.1
87.3
102.3
89.0

93.3
91.3
102.8
88.4

95.0
94.0
104.4
89.0

87.0
98.0
69.1
85.3
79.1
92.5
87.5

88.6
96.2
67.5
90.3
78.8
99.6
89.0

88.8
96.4
69.7
90.3
74.7
97.2
88.0

88.9
97.1
69.6
90.8
74.9
96.7
88.2

89.0
97.4
69.5
91.1
75.0
96.1
88.3

89.3
97.6
69.6
91.3
75.4
95.6
88.5

89.8
97.8
70.5
91.9
75.7
95.8
88.9

90.5
98.1
72.3
93.2
76.4
96.3
89.7

91.0
98.3
74.3
94.2
76.9
96.4
90.2

86.7
96.5
67.6
83.3
77.0
94.0
86.5

88.8
96.8
69.0
90.6
75.9
97.4
88.4

90.2
97.9
71.7
92.6
76.1
96.0
89.3

2.18

2.19

2.22

2.25

2.26

2.27

2.27

2.27

2.29

2.30

2.18

2.25

2.28

1.83

1.82

1.90

1.99

2.02

2.01

2.00

1.99

1.98

1.99

2.02

1.85

2.00

2.00

2.17

2.26

2.20

2.38

2.74

3.22

3.04

2.95

2.94

2.99

3.00

2.97

2.25

2.99

2.98

110.4

110.8

111.2

111.7

112.4

113.0

113.7

113.9

114.1

114.1

114.5

115.0

111.0

113.3

114.4

7,663

8,555

8,523

8,127

7,657

8,391

8,401

8,042

7,728

8,448

8,481

8,107

8,219

8,125

8,191

491

530

546

526

519

545

542

523

523

556

553

535

523

532

542

293

330

341

323

307

339

340

314

301

347

344

320

322

325

328

266.4

282.0

282.2

282.2

298.2

308.1

310.3

318.0

318.9

317.5

305.4

301.9

278.2

308.6

310.9

0.234

0.253

0.245

0.237

0.257

0.261

0.267

0.250

0.261

0.273

0.264

0.254

0.242

0.259

0.263

Carbon Dioxide (CO 2) Emissions (million metric tons)


Petroleum ......................................................
569
588
Natural Gas ...................................................
401
263
Coal ...............................................................
502
471
Total Fossil Fuels ..........................................
1,472
1,322

599
283
543
1,425

593
338
474
1,405

575
403
483
1,461

577
272
457
1,306

590
283
536
1,409

584
350
477
1,411

577
407
494
1,477

579
271
440
1,290

591
289
518
1,398

588
351
467
1,407

2,349
1,286
1,990
5,625

2,326
1,308
1,953
5,588

2,335
1,319
1,919
5,572

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

(billion chained 2005 dollars - SAAR) .......

12,938

13,059

13,140

13,216

13,228

13,270

13,308

13,354

Real Disposable Personal Income


(billion chained 2005 Dollars - SAAR) .......

9,923

10,058

10,114

10,152

10,170

10,189

10,222

1,582

1,654

1,664

1,694

1,699

1,723

12.38

4.84

24.17

39.65

33.28

123.5

123.6

123.6

123.5

129.3

130.0

129.9

87.3

87.6

1st

2nd

3rd

13,437

13,520

13,585

10,287

10,337

10,403

1,746

1,773

1,787

25.72

14.97

10.42

123.5

123.5

123.5

130.1

130.5

131.0

87.9

88.2

88.6

89.5
86.9
101.4
89.5

91.0
88.1
103.3
88.8

91.7
89.0
103.9
89.1

85.5

86.3
96.9
68.0
84.1
74.7
93.2
86.2

86.5
98.0
68.8
82.1
78.1
89.5
86.6

2.18

2.17

1.85

4th

Macroeconomic
Real Gross Domestic Product

Real Fixed Investment


(billion chained 2005 dollars-SAAR) .........
Business Inventory Change
(billion chained 2005 dollars-SAAR) .........
Housing Stock
(millions) ......................................................
Non-Farm Employment
(millions) .....................................................
Commercial Employment
(millions) .....................................................

Industrial Production Indices (Index, 2007=100)


Total Industrial Production ............................
88.0
Manufacturing ................................................
85.0
Food .............................................................
100.6
Paper ............................................................
88.7
Chemicals .....................................................
86.9
Petroleum ......................................................
92.9
Stone, Clay, Glass .......................................
64.6
Primary Metals ..............................................
81.7
Resins and Synthetic Products .....................
76.0
Agricultural Chemicals ..................................
100.9
Natural Gas-weighted (a) .............................
Price Indexes
Consumer Price Index (all urban consumers)
(index, 1982-1984=1.00) .............................
Producer Price Index: All Commodities
(index, 1982=1.00) ......................................
Producer Price Index: Petroleum
(index, 1982=1.00) ......................................
GDP Implicit Price Deflator
(index, 2005=100) .......................................
Miscellaneous
Vehicle Miles Traveled (b)
(million miles/day) .......................................
Air Travel Capacity
(Available ton-miles/day, thousands) .........
Aircraft Utilization
(Revenue ton-miles/day, thousands) ..........
Airline Ticket Price Index
(index, 1982-1984=100) ..............................
Raw Steel Production
(million short tons per day) .........................

- = no data available
(a) Natural gas share weights of individual sector indices based on EIAManufacturing Energy Consumption Survey, 2002.
(b) Total highway travel includes gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17; Federal Highway Administration;
and Federal Aviation Administration.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy and Regional Economic Information and simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Real Gross State Product (Billion $2005)
New England ...............
708
715
720
724
Middle Atlantic .............
1,913
1,929
1,937
1,948
E. N. Central ...............
1,797
1,814
1,822
1,828
W. N. Central ..............
850
858
864
869
S. Atlantic ....................
2,371
2,392
2,407
2,420
E. S. Central ................
608
613
616
619
W. S. Central ..............
1,490
1,508
1,522
1,535
Mountain .....................
864
872
878
884
Pacific .........................
2,314
2,335
2,350
2,367
Industrial Output, Manufacturing (Index, Year 2007=100)
New England ...............
87.2
89.1
90.4
91.4
Middle Atlantic .............
85.3
87.0
88.1
89.0
E. N. Central ...............
81.4
83.9
85.2
85.7
W. N. Central ..............
87.7
90.0
91.5
92.3
S. Atlantic ....................
82.2
83.6
84.5
84.9
E. S. Central ................
82.1
84.0
85.1
85.6
W. S. Central ..............
88.2
90.7
92.6
93.8
Mountain .....................
83.9
85.8
87.0
88.1
Pacific .........................
86.8
88.0
88.7
89.7
Real Personal Income (Billion $2005)
New England ...............
620
633
636
638
Middle Atlantic .............
1,668
1,699
1,706
1,714
E. N. Central ...............
1,544
1,569
1,583
1,587
W. N. Central ..............
707
715
724
730
S. Atlantic ....................
2,057
2,084
2,101
2,110
E. S. Central ................
543
552
557
559
W. S. Central ..............
1,218
1,236
1,250
1,261
Mountain .....................
710
718
724
728
Pacific .........................
1,873
1,893
1,906
1,918
Households (Thousands)
New England ...............
5,498
5,498
5,498
5,498
Middle Atlantic .............
15,217
15,210
15,224
15,231
E. N. Central ...............
17,732
17,725
17,710
17,697
W. N. Central ..............
8,065
8,068
8,077
8,085
S. Atlantic ....................
22,256
22,294
22,315
22,342
E. S. Central ................
7,100
7,107
7,113
7,117
W. S. Central ..............
12,841
12,871
12,896
12,921
Mountain .....................
7,926
7,942
7,961
7,980
Pacific .........................
16,950
16,969
16,997
17,033
Total Non-farm Employment (Millions)
New England ...............
6.7
6.7
6.8
6.8
Middle Atlantic .............
17.9
18.0
17.9
17.9
E. N. Central ...............
19.9
20.0
20.0
20.0
W. N. Central ..............
9.8
9.8
9.8
9.8
S. Atlantic ....................
24.6
24.8
24.8
24.8
E. S. Central ................
7.3
7.3
7.3
7.3
W. S. Central ..............
14.8
14.9
14.9
15.0
Mountain .....................
9.0
9.0
9.0
9.0
Pacific .........................
19.1
19.2
19.1
19.2

2011
1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

Year
2011

2012

723
1,949
1,828
868
2,423
619
1,539
885
2,370

725
1,955
1,831
871
2,433
621
1,547
888
2,378

727
1,959
1,833
873
2,441
623
1,553
890
2,385

729
1,966
1,840
875
2,450
625
1,560
893
2,393

732
1,976
1,851
880
2,467
629
1,572
899
2,406

736
1,987
1,862
885
2,484
633
1,585
905
2,420

738
1,995
1,869
889
2,497
636
1,594
910
2,432

741
2,003
1,874
892
2,512
640
1,604
915
2,447

717
1,932
1,815
860
2,397
614
1,514
874
2,341

726
1,957
1,833
872
2,437
622
1,550
889
2,381

737
1,990
1,864
887
2,490
634
1,589
907
2,426

93.0
90.6
87.4
94.1
86.3
87.2
95.5
90.1
91.6

92.9
90.7
87.4
94.2
86.3
87.5
95.7
90.3
91.8

93.6
91.3
88.0
94.9
86.9
88.5
96.7
91.2
92.8

94.0
91.6
88.3
95.3
87.3
89.2
97.3
91.7
93.5

94.4
92.0
89.0
96.0
87.8
90.2
98.2
92.5
94.2

94.9
92.7
90.0
97.0
88.6
91.5
99.3
93.2
94.9

95.5
93.5
90.9
98.0
89.5
92.8
100.3
94.1
95.6

95.8
94.1
91.7
99.0
90.1
93.8
101.1
94.7
96.1

89.5
87.4
84.0
90.4
83.8
84.2
91.3
86.2
88.3

93.4
91.0
87.8
94.6
86.7
88.1
96.3
90.8
92.4

95.1
93.1
90.4
97.5
89.0
92.1
99.7
93.6
95.2

644
1,729
1,603
739
2,132
565
1,275
735
1,938

644
1,733
1,604
741
2,138
566
1,281
737
1,944

646
1,740
1,605
743
2,146
568
1,287
740
1,950

649
1,752
1,610
744
2,161
570
1,297
745
1,963

653
1,763
1,616
748
2,178
574
1,307
751
1,975

657
1,777
1,627
754
2,194
578
1,317
757
1,989

659
1,785
1,632
756
2,203
581
1,325
761
1,998

661
1,792
1,636
758
2,214
583
1,332
766
2,007

632
1,697
1,571
719
2,088
553
1,241
720
1,897

646
1,739
1,605
742
2,145
568
1,285
739
1,949

657
1,779
1,628
754
2,197
579
1,320
759
1,992

5,497
15,240
17,687
8,094
22,374
7,123
12,950
7,998
17,056

5,493
15,240
17,672
8,100
22,403
7,125
12,976
8,015
17,075

5,493
15,247
17,669
8,110
22,443
7,132
13,012
8,036
17,102

5,495
15,254
17,666
8,123
22,487
7,144
13,055
8,061
17,137

5,501
15,264
17,683
8,142
22,548
7,160
13,107
8,096
17,186

5,510
15,283
17,713
8,166
22,630
7,180
13,165
8,135
17,246

5,520
15,303
17,746
8,190
22,721
7,203
13,226
8,175
17,308

5,532
15,325
17,783
8,215
22,820
7,227
13,292
8,218
17,370

5,498
15,231
17,697
8,085
22,342
7,117
12,921
7,980
17,033

5,495
15,254
17,666
8,123
22,487
7,144
13,055
8,061
17,137

5,532
15,325
17,783
8,215
22,820
7,227
13,292
8,218
17,370

6.8
18.0
20.0
9.9
24.8
7.4
15.1
9.1
19.3

6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
24.9
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.3

6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
25.0
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.4

6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
25.0
7.4
15.3
9.1
19.4

6.8
18.2
20.1
10.0
25.1
7.4
15.3
9.2
19.5

6.8
18.2
20.2
10.0
25.2
7.5
15.4
9.2
19.5

6.8
18.3
20.3
10.0
25.3
7.5
15.4
9.3
19.6

6.8
18.3
20.3
10.1
25.4
7.5
15.5
9.3
19.7

6.7
17.9
20.0
9.8
24.7
7.3
14.9
9.0
19.2

6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
24.9
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.3

6.8
18.2
20.2
10.0
25.3
7.5
15.4
9.2
19.6

- = no data available
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.

Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data


Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2011

2010
1st

2nd

Heating Degree-days
New England ................
2,948
634
Middle Atlantic ..............
2,805
477
E. N. Central .................
3,217
523
W. N. Central ................
3,475
536
South Atlantic ...............
1,804
144
E. S. Central .................
2,297
169
W. S. Central ................
1,608
79
Mountain .......................
2,313
780
Pacific ...........................
1,312
678
U.S. Average ............
2,311
422
Heating Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a)
New England ................
3,219
930
Middle Atlantic ..............
2,968
752
E. N. Central .................
3,227
798
W. N. Central ................
3,326
729
South Atlantic ...............
1,523
247
E. S. Central .................
1,895
299
W. S. Central ................
1,270
112
Mountain .......................
2,321
741
Pacific ...........................
1,419
556
U.S. Average ............
2,242
543
Cooling Degree-days
New England ................
0
129
Middle Atlantic ..............
0
261
E. N. Central .................
0
282
W. N. Central ................
1
320
South Atlantic ...............
34
772
E. S. Central .................
8
679
W. S. Central ................
27
950
Mountain .......................
11
370
Pacific ...........................
7
120
U.S. Average ............
12
445
Cooling Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a)
New England ................
0
81
Middle Atlantic ..............
0
151
E. N. Central .................
1
208
W. N. Central ................
3
270
South Atlantic ...............
113
576
E. S. Central .................
29
469
W. S. Central ................
80
790
Mountain .......................
17
383
Pacific ...........................
10
171
U.S. Average ............
34
353

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2012
3rd

4th

1st

2nd

Year
3rd

4th

2010

2011

2012

81
57
99
142
7
11
2
116
93
62

2,280
2,116
2,369
2,430
1,264
1,516
833
1,745
1,086
1,665

3,314
3,023
3,306
3,517
1,501
1,866
1,273
2,338
1,481
2,285

846
609
755
769
179
247
101
773
675
517

158
104
129
141
24
31
8
129
93
82

2,257
2,051
2,302
2,484
1,055
1,373
865
1,923
1,145
1,625

3,255
2,994
3,258
3,359
1,515
1,874
1,220
2,332
1,439
2,250

929
748
794
727
242
290
102
727
556
538

184
124
155
182
24
32
9
167
107
98

2,242
2,037
2,276
2,474
1,040
1,352
875
1,923
1,138
1,612

5,942
5,455
6,209
6,583
3,219
3,993
2,521
4,954
3,170
4,460

6,575
5,787
6,492
6,911
2,759
3,517
2,247
5,163
3,394
4,509

6,610
5,903
6,483
6,742
2,821
3,548
2,206
5,149
3,240
4,498

190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101

2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638

3,219
2,968
3,227
3,326
1,523
1,895
1,270
2,321
1,419
2,242

930
752
798
729
247
299
112
741
556
543

190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101

2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638

3,219
2,968
3,227
3,326
1,523
1,895
1,270
2,321
1,419
2,242

930
752
798
729
247
299
112
741
556
543

190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101

2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638

6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524

6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524

6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524

526
730
684
787
1,292
1,256
1,593
991
495
930

0
5
10
15
168
61
179
78
33
68

0
0
0
1
99
9
113
11
2
33

111
216
227
294
789
653
1,091
316
68
432

443
637
680
836
1,230
1,157
1,730
942
550
920

0
5
8
13
208
62
183
66
41
77

0
0
1
3
114
33
90
15
7
37

70
141
198
263
574
468
805
382
151
347

353
517
502
653
1,090
1,009
1,431
866
513
777

0
5
8
12
213
63
177
75
41
77

656
996
976
1,123
2,265
2,005
2,749
1,450
655
1,455

554
858
915
1,144
2,326
1,881
3,117
1,335
661
1,462

423
663
709
931
1,991
1,573
2,503
1,338
712
1,238

361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775

1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80

0
0
1
3
113
29
80
17
10
34

81
151
208
270
576
469
790
383
171
353

361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775

1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80

0
0
1
3
113
29
80
17
10
34

81
151
208
270
576
469
790
383
171
353

361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775

1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80

443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242

443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242

443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242

- = no data available
(a) 30-year normal represents average over 1971 - 2000, reported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Based on forecasts by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

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