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September2011
ShortTermEnergyOutlook
September7,2011Release
Highlights
EIAseconomicgrowthassumptionshavebeenloweredsubstantially
comparedwithlastmonthsOutlook.ThisforecastassumesthatU.S.realgross
domesticproduct(GDP)growsby1.5percentthisyearand1.9percentnext
yearcomparedwith2.4percentand2.6percent,respectively,intheprevious
Outlook.WorldoilconsumptionweightedrealGDPgrowsby3.1percentand
3.8percentin2011and2012,respectively,comparedwith3.4percentand4.1
percentinthelastOutlook.Withweakereconomicgrowthandlower
petroleumconsumptiongrowth,EIAexpectstheU.S.averagerefiner
acquisitioncostofcrudeoiltorisefromanaverageof$100perbarrelin2011to
$103perbarrelin2012,comparedwithanincreaseto$107perbarrelin2012in
lastmonthsOutlook.
Regulargradegasolineretailpricesfellby40centspergallonfromtheirpeak
thisyearof$3.97pergallononMay9to$3.57pergallononJune27followinga
declineincrudeoilprices.GasolineretailpricesstabilizedinJulyandAugust
withweeklyretailpricesaveragingbetween$3.58pergallonand$3.71per
gallon,butareprojectedtofalltoanaverage$3.47pergalloninthefourth
quarter2011afterrefinersswitchproductionfromsummergradegasolineto
lowercostwintergradegasoline.
NaturalgasworkinginventoriesendedAugust2011at3.0trillioncubicfeet
(Tcf),about5percent,or144billioncubicfeet(Bcf),belowthe2010endof
Augustlevel.EIAexpectsthatworkingnaturalgasinventorieswillapproach
lastyearshighlevelsbytheendofthisyearsinjectionseason.Theprojected
HenryHubnaturalgasspotpriceaverages$4.20permillionBritishthermal
units(MMBtu)in2011,$0.18perMMBtulowerthanthe2010average.EIA
expectsthenaturalgasmarkettotightenmoderatelyin2012,withtheHenry
Hubspotpriceincreasingtoanaverageof$4.30perMMBtu.
Globalcoalsupplydisruptions,particularlyinAustralia,andgrowingdemand
inChinahavehelpedboostU.S.coalexportsforthefirsthalfof2011toa29
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2011
1
yearhighof54millionshorttons(MMst),anincreaseof35percentcompared
tothesameperiodin2010anddouble2009levels.EIAexpectscoalexportsto
begintoweaken,totaling45MMstoverthesecondhalfof2011and87MMstin
2012.
GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuels
CrudeOilandLiquidFuelsOverview.Theprojectedpaceofglobaloildemand
growthislowerinthismonthsOutlookduetolessoptimisticassumptionsabout
globaleconomicgrowth.Thedownwardrevisiontooildemandgrowthrelieves
someofthepotentialoilmarkettightnessthathadbeenimpliedbypreviousforecast
balances.Nonetheless,withoutasignificantchangeintheoutlookforsupply,EIA
expectsmarketstodrawuponinventoriestomeetatleastsomeofthegrowthin
consumptionoverthefourthquarterof2011andbeyond.In2012,oildemandgrowth
fromcountriesoutsideoftheOrganizationforEconomicCooperationand
Development(OECD)isprojectedtooutpacethegrowthinsupplyfromproducers
thatarenotmembersoftheOrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries
(OPEC),implyinganeedforOPECproducerstoincreasetheiroutputtobalancethe
market.
Theinherentuncertaintyoftherevisedpriceforecastisevidencedbythevarious
shockstooilsupply,demand,andpricesthathaveoccurredthisyear.Upsiderisksto
thecrudeoilpriceoutlookremain,particularlyduetoongoingunrestinoil
producingregionsandthepossibilitythatnonOECDdemandwillbemoreresilient
thanexpected.Yetdownsiderisksarguablypredominate,asfearspersistaboutthe
rateofglobaleconomicrecovery,contagioneffectsofthedebtcrisisintheEuropean
Union,andotherfiscalissuesfacingnationalandsubnationalgovernments.Onthe
supplyside,thepossibilityremainsthatLibyamaybeabletorampupoilproduction
andexportssoonerthananticipated.
GlobalCrudeOilandLiquidFuelsConsumption.EIAexpectsworldcrudeoiland
liquidfuelsconsumptionwillcontinuegrowingfromitsrecordhighlevelsin2010,
albeitlessrobustlythaninthepreviousOutlook,duetoareductionofapproximately
0.3percentagepointsintheglobaloilconsumptionweightedeconomicgrowth
forecastforboth2011and2012.EIAexpectsworldconsumptiontogrowbyabout1.4
millionbarrelsperday(bbl/d)inboth2011and2012to89.6millionbbl/din2012a
downwardrevisionofover200thousandbbl/dfromlastmonthsOutlook(World
LiquidFuelsConsumptionChart).Thedemandforecastisalsoadivergenttaleof
tworegions:consumptioninOECDmembercountriesisprojectedtodeclineinboth
2011and2012,whileChinaandotheremergingeconomiesaccountforallofthe
projectedgrowthinoilconsumptionthrough2012.
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2011
2
NonOPECSupply.EIAprojectsthatnonOPECcrudeoilandliquidfuelsproduction
willgrowby500thousandbbl/din2011and770thousandbbl/din2012,toa2012
averageof53.1millionbbl/d(NonOPECCrudeOilandLiquidFuelsProduction
GrowthChart).ThelargestsourcesofexpectedgrowthinnonOPECoilproduction
overtheforecastperiodareBrazil,Canada,China,Colombia,Kazakhstan,andthe
UnitedStates,withaverageannualgrowthineachcountryofover100thousand
bbl/d.Incontrast,Russianoilproductionisexpectedtodeclinebyroughly120
thousandbbl/dnextyear,whileNorthSeaproductiondeclinesby130thousandbbl/d
in2011and110thousandbbl/din2012.EIAassumesthatYemenwillrecovermostof
itspredisruptionlevelsofproduction(240thousandbbl/d)earlynextyear,but
heightenedturmoilinSyriaandthepotentialformoresanctionsonthecountrys
energysectorintroduceyetanothersourceofpoliticalrisktothenonOPECoutlook.
OPECSupply.EIAexpectsOPECcrudeoilproductiontodeclinebyabout360
thousandbbl/din2011,inlargepartduetothesupplydisruptioninLibya.Though
thesituationinLibyaisdynamicandcircumstanceshavechangedconsiderablysince
lastmonthsOutlook,EIAiscontinuingtomaintainitsassumptionwithonlya
slightlyacceleratedtimetablethataboutonehalfofLibyaspredisruption
productionwillresumebytheendof2012.TherestorationofatleastsomeLibyan
productionisexpectedtocontributetoanoverallincreaseinOPECoutputof510
thousandbbl/din2012.EIAprojectsthatOPECsurpluscrudeoilproductioncapacity
willfallfrom4.0millionbbl/dattheendof2010to3.5millionbbl/dattheendof2011
(OPECSurplusCrudeOilProductionCapacityChart).ForecastOPECnoncrude
liquidsproduction,whichisnotsubjecttoproductiontargets,isexpectedtoincrease
by490thousandbbl/din2011andby440thousandbbl/din2012.
OECDPetroleumInventories.EIAexpectsthatOECDcommercialinventorieswill
declineslightlyinboth2011and2012.Daysofsupply(totalinventoriesdividedby
averagedailyconsumption)fallslightlybutremainrelativelyhighat58daysduring
thefourthquarterof2010,57daysduringthefourthquarter2011,and56daysduring
thefourthquarter2012(DaysofSupplyofOECDCommercialStocksChart).
CrudeOilPrices.WestTexasIntermediate(WTI)crudeoilspotpricesfellfroman
averageof$97perbarrelinJulyto$86perbarrelinAugust(WestTexasIntermediate
CrudeOilPriceChart).EIAhasrevisedtheprojectedoilpricepathsdownwardfrom
lastmonthsOutlook.EIAexpectsthattheU.S.refineraveragecrudeoilacquisition
costwillaverage$100perbarrelin2011and$103perbarrelin2012comparedwith
$100perbarreland$107perbarrelfor2011and2012,respectively,intheprevious
Outlook.
ThecurrentpricediscountforWTIrelativetootherU.S.andworldcrudeoilsis
expectedtocontinueuntiltransportationbottlenecksrestrictingthemovementof
crudeoiloutofthemidcontinentregionarerelieved.Consequently,theprojected
averageU.S.refineracquisitioncostofcrudeoil,whichaveragedalmost$2.70per
barrelbelowWTIin2010,averagesabout$6perbarrelaboveWTIin2011and$8per
barrelaboveWTIin2012.
Energypriceforecastsarehighlyuncertain(MarketPricesandUncertaintyReport).
WTIfuturesforNovember2011deliveryoverthe5dayperiodendingSeptember1
averaged$88perbarrelandimpliedvolatilityaveraged40percent,establishingthe
lowerandupperlimitsofa95percentconfidenceintervalforthemarkets
expectationsofmonthlyaverageWTIpricesinNovemberof$67perbarreland$116
perbarrel,respectively.Impliedvolatility,ortheexpectationoffuturepricevolatility,
isupfromthe33percentimpliedvolatilityreportedinlastmonthsOutlookforthe
October2011contract.Lastyearatthistime,WTIforNovember2010delivery
averaged$75perbarrelandimpliedvolatilityaveraged32percent.The
correspondinglowerandupperlimitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$61
perbarreland$94perbarrel.
U.S.CrudeOilandLiquidFuels
U.S.LiquidFuelsConsumption.Totalconsumptionofliquidfuelsin2010grew410
thousandbbl/d,or2.2percent,thehighestrateofgrowthsince2004(U.S.LiquidFuels
ConsumptionGrowthChart).Incontrast,projectedtotalU.S.liquidfuels
consumptionin2011fallsby170thousandbbl/d(0.9percent).Motorgasoline
consumptionaccountsforalmostalltheprojecteddeclinefortheyear.
EIAexpectstotalliquidfuelsconsumptiontoincreaseby80thousandbbl/d(0.4
percent)to19.1millionbbl/din2012,downfromthe170thousandbbl/dincrease
projectedinthepreviousOutlookbecauseofthedownwardrevisionstotheU.S.
economicgrowthforecast.Projectedmotorgasolineconsumptionrisesby40
thousandbbl/d(0.5percent)ashighwaytravelincreasesmodestly,anddistillatefuel
consumptionincreasesby30thousandbbl/d(0.9percent)asgrowthinindustrial
activityandnonpetroleumimportscontinuestoslowasaresultofcontinuingweak
economicgrowthin2012.
U.S.LiquidFuelsSupplyandImports.Domesticcrudeoilproduction,which
increasedby110thousandbbl/din2010to5.5millionbbl/d,increasesbyafurther140
thousandbbl/din2011andby60thousandbbl/din2012(U.S.CrudeOilProduction
Chart),drivenbyincreasedoildirecteddrillingactivity,particularlyin
unconventionalshaleformations.
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2011
4
Liquidfuelnetimports(includingbothcrudeoilandrefinedproducts)fellfrom57
percentoftotalU.S.consumptionin2008to49percentin2010becauseofrising
domesticproductionandthedeclineinconsumptionduringtheeconomicdownturn.
EIAforecaststhatliquidfuelnetimportsshareoftotalconsumptionwilldecline
furtherto47percentinboth2011and2012.
U.S.Inventories.CommercialcrudeoilinventorylevelsendedAugust2011atan
estimated359millionbarrels,thesamelevelaslastyearbut29millionbarrelshigher
thantheprevious5yearaverageforthatmonth.Followingthecompletionofthe
releaseofabout31millionbarrelsofcrudeoilfromtheU.S.StrategicPetroleum
Reserve(SPR),commercialcrudeoilstocksareexpectedtoriseto364millionbarrels
bytheendofSeptember2011,34millionbarrelshigherthantheprevious5year
average.Commercialcrudeoilstocksaregraduallydrawndowntoneartheir5year
averagesbytheendof2012.
EIAexpectsrefinedproductinventoriestoremainclosetotheir5yearaverages
despitetherecentSPRrelease.TotalmotorgasolinestocksattheendofAugust2011
wereanestimated208millionbarrels,down13millionbarrelsfromlastyearbut2
millionbarrelsabovetheprevious5yearaverageforthatmonth.Distillatefueloil
stocksendedAugust2011atanestimated157millionbarrels,down13millionbarrels
fromthesametimelastyearbut7millionbarrelsabovetheprevious5yearaverage.
Projectedtotalmotorgasolineanddistillateinventoriesaverageabout1million
barrelsand7millionbarrelshigher,respectively,thantheirprevious5yearaverages
attheendof2011.
U.S.PetroleumProductPrices.EIAforecaststhattheannualaverageregulargrade
gasolineretailprice,whichaveraged$2.78pergallonin2010,willincreaseto$3.56
pergallonin2011,andaverage$3.54pergallonin2012.Theincreaseinretailprices
in2011reflectsnotonlythehighercostofcrudeoilbutalsochangesinaverageU.S.
refinerygasolinemargin(thedifferencebetweenrefinerywholesalegasolineprices
andtheaveragecostofcrudeoil)from$0.34pergallonin2010,to$0.50pergallonin
2011and$0.43pergallonin2012.
EIAexpectsthatonhighwaydieselfuelretailprices,whichaveraged$2.99pergallon
in2010,willaverage$3.85pergallonin2011and$3.87pergallonin2012.Projected
U.S.refinerydieselfuelmarginsincreasefromanaverageof$0.38pergallonin2010
to$0.65pergallonin2011,thenfalltoanaverageof$0.58pergallonin2012.
NaturalGas
U.S.NaturalGasConsumption.Projectednaturalgasconsumptionforelectricpower
generationfellfrom29.7Bcf/dinJulyto29.2Bcf/dinAugust,astheextreme
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2011
5
temperatures(411coolingdegreedaysinJuly)recededsomewhat(to350cooling
degreedaysinAugust).HurricaneIrene,laterdowngradedtoTropicalStormIreneas
itmoveduptheEastCoast,broughtwind,rain,andpoweroutagesneartheendof
themonth.
EIAexpectsthattotalnaturalgasconsumptionwillgrowby1.8percentto67.3billion
cubicfeetperday(Bcf/d)in2011(U.S.TotalNaturalGasConsumptionChart).
Growthintheindustrialandelectricpowersectorsaccountsformostofthegrowthin
totalconsumption,withexpectedincreasesin2011to18.5Bcf/d(2.1percent)and20.7
Bcf/d(2.4percent),respectively.Projectedtotalnaturalgasconsumptionincreases
0.6percentin2012to67.7Bcf/d.
U.S.NaturalGasProductionandImports.Marketednaturalgasproductionis
expectedtoaverage65.8Bcf/din2011,a4.0Bcf/d(6.4percent)increaseover2010.
ThemajorityofthisgrowthiscenteredintheonshoreproductionintheLower48
States,whichwillmorethanoffsetsteepprojecteddeclinesintheFederalGulfof
Mexico(GOM).ForecastGOMproductionfalls0.9Bcf/d(13.9percent)in2011.EIA
expectsthatoverallproductionwillcontinuetogrowin2012,butataslowerpace,
increasing1.1Bcf/d(1.7percent)toanaverageof66.9Bcf/d.
Drillingactivityhasbeenresilientdespitelowernaturalgasspotandfuturesprices.
AccordingtoBakerHughes,theAugust26rigcounthadreboundedto898active
drillingrigstargetingnaturalgas,upfrom866onMay20.Ifdrillingcontinuesto
increase,productioncouldgrowmorethanexpectedin2012.
Growingdomesticnaturalgasproductionhasreducedrelianceonnaturalgasimports
andcontributedtoincreasedexports.EIAexpectsthatpipelinegrossimportsof
naturalgaswillfallby4.1percentto8.7Bcf/dduring2011andbyanother3.8percent
to8.4Bcf/din2012.ProjectedU.S.importsofliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)fallfrom1.2
Bcf/din2010to1.0Bcf/dinboth2011and2012.PipelinegrossexportstoMexicoand
Canadaareexpectedtoaverage4.1Bcf/din2011and4.2Bcf/din2012,comparedwith
3.1Bcf/din2010.
U.S.NaturalGasInventories.OnAugust26,2011,workingnaturalgasinstorage
stoodat2,961Bcf,137BcfbelowlastyearslevelinlateAugust(U.S.WorkingNatural
GasinStorageChart).EIAexpectsthatinventories,thoughcurrentlylowerthanlast
year,willcomeclosetolastyearslevelstowardstheendofthe2011injectionseason,
reaching3.74TcfattheendofOctober2011.
U.S.NaturalGasPrices.TheHenryHubspotpriceaveraged$4.05perMMBtuin
August2011,37centslowerthantheJuly2011average(HenryHubNaturalGasPrice
Chart).ThismonthsOutlooklowersthe2011forecastby4centsto$4.20perMMBtu
U.S. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2011
6
andlowersthe2012forecastby11centsto$4.30perMMBtu.Theincreaseinprice
from2011to2012reflectssometighteninginsupplyasproductiongrowthslowsin
2012.
Uncertaintyaboutnaturalgaspricesislowerthisyearcomparedwithlastyearatthis
time(MarketPricesandUncertaintyReport).NaturalgasfuturesforNovember2011
delivery(forthe5dayperiodendingSeptember1,2011)averaged$4.07perMMBtu,
andtheaverageimpliedvolatilitywas34percent.Thelowerandupperboundsfor
the95percentconfidenceintervalforNovember2011contractsare$3.16perMMBtu
and$5.26perMMBtu.Atthistimelastyear,theNovember2010naturalgasfutures
contractaveraged$4.07perMMBtuandimpliedvolatilityaveraged48percent.The
correspondinglowerandupperlimitsofthe95percentconfidenceintervalwere$2.84
perMMBtuand$5.83perMMBtu.
Electricity
U.S.ElectricityConsumption.Althoughcumulativecoolingdegreedaysfor2011
throughAugustfortheentireUnitedStateswerejust2.8percenthigherthanthesame
periodin2010,someregionsexperiencedextremeweatherduringthepastfew
months.RecordheatinTexashasledtorecordsettingpowerdemandwhile
HurricaneIrenerecentlycausedwidespreadpoweroutagesintheNortheast.Overall,
EIAexpectsrelativelyflatgrowththisyearforU.S.retailsalesofelectricitytothe
residentialsector.
Electricitysalestotheindustrialsectorwere3.0percenthigherduringthefirsthalfof
2011comparedwiththesameperiodlastyear.However,aprojectedslowerrecovery
inmanufacturingfortheremainderofthisyearshouldtranslatetoloweryearover
yeargrowthinindustrialelectricitysalesof0.6percentduringthesecondhalf.EIA
expectstotalconsumptionofelectricityduring2011togrowby0.6percentfromlast
yearslevelandby0.2percentin2012(U.S.TotalElectricityConsumptionChart).
U.S.ElectricityGeneration.Alargenumberofunplannednuclearplantoutages
duringthespringof2011ledtothelowestsecondquarterlevelofnucleargeneration
since1999.EIAexpectsthattotalnucleargenerationfor2011willbe3.4percentlower
thanlastyearslevel.Incontrast,theshareofgenerationfueledbynaturalgas
continuestoincrease,spurredbyrelativelylowfuelcostscomparedwithcoaland
continuedwarmsummertemperatures.EIAexpectsthefuelsharefornaturalgasto
risefrom23.8percentin2010to24.2percentthisyearand24.9percentin2012(U.S.
ElectricityGenerationbyFuel,allSectorsChart).
U.S.ElectricityRetailPrices.Retailpricesofelectricitytotheresidentialsector
duringthefirstsixmonthsofthisyearweregenerallyhigherthanthesameperiodin
2010.Growthinresidentialelectricitypricesshouldmoderateduringthesecondhalf.
EIAexpectsaverageU.S.residentialelectricitypricestoincreaseby2.3percentin2011
andby0.6percentin2012(U.S.ResidentialElectricityPricesChart).
Coal
U.S.CoalConsumption.EIAexpectsthatcoalconsumptionforelectricitygeneration
willdeclineby21millionshorttons(MMst)(2.1percent)in2011,astotalelectricity
generationrisesby0.4percentandgenerationfromnaturalgasincreasesbyalmost2
percent.Forecastcoalconsumptionintheelectricpowersectordeclinesanadditional
22MMst(2.3percent)in2012.
U.S.CoalSupply.EIAforecaststhatcoalproductionwillfallby2.2percentin2011
despiteasignificantincreaseincoalexports.CoalproductionintheWesternregion
declinedinthefirsthalfof2011by2.0percentcomparedtothesameperiodtheyear
before,whileproductionintheAppalachianandInteriorregionsincreasedby1.6
percentand5.6percent,respectively.EIAexpectscoalproductionwillremainflatin
2012(U.S.AnnualCoalProductionChart).
EIAexpectstotalcoalinventoriestofallby12percent(27MMst)in2011,anddecline
byanadditional2.5percent(4.9MMst)in2012(U.S.ElectricPowerSectorCoalStocks
Chart).
U.S.CoalTrade.U.S.coalexportsrosebyabout35percentduringthefirsthalfof
2011comparedwith2010.Thefirsthalfexportsof54MMstwerethehighestsince
1982,whenexportswere57MMst.EIAexpectsU.S.coalexportstoremainelevated
overthesecondhalfof2011,reachinganannualtotalof99MMst.ForecastU.S.coal
exportsfallbacktoabout87MMstin2012assupplyfromothermajorcoalexporting
countriesrecoversfromdisruptions.EIAalsoexpectsstrongglobaldemandforcoal
tocontinuetosuppresscoalimports.
U.S.CoalPrices.Averagedeliveredcoalpricestotheelectricpowersectorhaverisen
steadilyoverthelast10years,withanaverageannualincreaseof6.7percent.EIA
expectsthatthistrendwillcontinuein2011,withasignificantportionoftheincrease
attributedtoasharpriseintransportationcosts.Theprojectedaveragedeliveredcoal
pricetotheelectricpowersector,whichaveraged$2.26perMMBtuin2010,averages
$2.37perMMBtufor2011and$2.36perMMBtufor2012.
U.S.CarbonDioxideEmissions
EIAestimatesthatCO2emissionsfromcombustingfossilfuelsincreasedby3.9
percentin2010(U.S.CarbonDioxideEmissionsGrowthChart).Forecastfossilfuel
CO2emissionsfallby0.7percentin2011,asemissionincreasesfromhighernatural
gasconsumptionareoffsetbydeclinesincoalandpetroleumconsumption.Increases
inhydroelectricgenerationandotherrenewableenergysourcesin2011alsohelpto
mitigateemissionsgrowth.FossilfuelCO2emissionsin2012remainstableas
expecteddeclinesincoalemissionsarenearlyequaledbytheincreasesinemissions
frompetroleumandnaturalgas.
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan 2010
Jul 2010
Jan 2011
Jul 2011
Jan 2012
Jul 2012
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending September 1, 2011
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts
Price difference
Retail regular gasoline
Crude oil
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Crude oil price is refiner average acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes
Jan 2012
Price difference
Retail diesel fuel
WTI crude oil
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Crude oil price is refiner average acquisition cost. Retail prices include State and Federal taxes
0
Jan 2010
Jul 2010
Jan 2011
Jul 2011
Jan 2012
Jul 2012
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for 5 trading days ending September 1, 2011
Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in "near-the-money" options contracts
Forecast
20
15
10
0
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Total consumption
90
7.0
6.0
85
5.0
80
4.0
Annual growth
75
3.0
2.0
70
1.0
65
0.0
-1.0
60
-2.0
55
-3.0
2004
2005
2006
China
2007
2008
2009
United States
2010
2011
2012
Other Countries
Forecast
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
2010
OECD*
2011
Non-OECD Asia
2012
Other
Forecast
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
2010
2011
OPEC countries
North America
North Sea
2012
Russia and Caspian Sea
Latin America
Other Non-OPEC
2011
0.6
2010
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
Norway
Mexico
United Kingdom
Malaysia
Australia
Syria
Gabon
Egypt
Sudan
India
Oman
Azerbaijan
Russia
Vietnam
Kazakhstan
Brazil
Colombia
China
Canada
United States
-0.4
Forecast
80
60
2
40
1
20
0
-20
-1
-40
-2
-60
-3
-80
-4
2008-Q1
-100
2009-Q1
2010-Q1
2011-Q1
2012-Q1
2002
2004
2006
2008
Note: Shaded area represents 2000-2010 average (2.7 million barrels per day)
2010
2012
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Note: Colored band represents the range between the minimum and maximum observed inventories from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010.
Total production
(line chart)
9.00
8.75
1.00
8.50
0.90
8.25
0.80
8.00
0.70
7.75
0.60
7.50
0.50
7.25
0.40
7.00
0.30
6.75
0.20
6.50
0.10
6.25
0.00
6.00
2009
Crude oil
Fuel ethanol
Total Production
-0.10
2011
2012
Liquified petroleum gas and pentanes plus
Biodiesel
Forecast
2010
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Note: Colored band represents "normal" range published in EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Appendix A.
Total consumption
(line chart)
20.0
19.5
19.0
18.5
18.0
17.5
17.0
16.5
2009
2010
Motor gasoline
Other
2011
Jet fuel
Total consumption
Distillate fuel
Forecast
Forecast
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
600
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
Jan 2012
Note: Colored bands represent "normal" range published in EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Appendix A.
Total consumption
(line chart)
100
90
3.5
80
3.0
70
2.5
60
2.0
50
1.5
40
1.0
30
0.5
20
0.0
10
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-10
2009
2010
Electric power
Industrial
Total consumption
2011
2012
Storage level
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
-2,000
-3,000
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
130%
120%
110%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Jan 2012
Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010
Total consumption
(line chart)
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
2009
2010
2011
Electric power
Coke plants
Total consumption
Forecast
Total production
(line chart)
100
95
100
90
80
85
80
60
75
40
70
20
65
60
55
-20
50
-40
45
40
-60
2009
2010
2011
Western region
Appalachian region
Total production
Forecast
2012
Interior region
Forecast
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
600
Jan
2003
Jan
2004
Jan
2005
Jan
2006
Jan
2007
Jan
2008
Jan
2009
Jan
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Note: Colored band around storage levels represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2006 - Dec. 2010
Total consumption
(line chart)
13,000
700
12,000
600
11,000
500
10,000
400
9,000
300
8,000
200
7,000
100
6,000
5,000
-100
4,000
-200
3,000
-300
2009
2010
2011
Residential
Industrial
Total consumption
2012
14
13
Forecast
36%
12
11
30%
10
9
24%
8
7
18%
6
10.3%
Annual growth
4
4.2%
3
2
3.2%
12%
5.7%
5.4%
2.6%
2.4%
0.9%
6%
2.2%
2.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0%
1
0
-1.6%
-6%
-1
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
12,000
10,000
8,000
50.8%
49.8%
49.6%
48.5%
49.0%
48.2%
44.4%
44.9%
43.7%
42.9%
Coal
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Nuclear
6,000
4,000
16.7%
17.9%
18.8%
21.6%
20.1%
21.4%
23.3%
23.8%
24.2%
24.9%
Hydropower
Renewables
Other Sources
2,000
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Note: Labels show percentage share of total generation provided by coal and natural gas.
Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2011
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%
2009
2010
All Fossil Fuels
Coal
2011
Petroleum
2012
Natural Gas
2012
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
Normal
1000
800
600
400
200
0
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/
Pacific
WEST
MIDWEST
NORTHEAST
WA
ND
MT
MN
OR
W
ID
NV
Mountain
NE
CO
CA
West
North
Central
SD
Pacific
VT
W
IA
MO
KS
Middle
Atlantic
PA
IN
IL
UT
WV
NM
Pacific
VA
KY
OK
AZ
TX
HI
EastTN
AR
South
West
Central
South
AL
LA MS
Central
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
NC
South
Atlantic
SC
GA
LEGEND
REGION
Division
State
FL
SOUTH
ME
New
NY England
East
MI
North
Central OH
2011
Year-over-year Change
(percent)
Q2
Q3
Season
Q2
Q3
Season
Q2
Q3
Season
1.85
1.81
1.83
2.43
2.16
2.30
31.4
19.5
25.5
1.77
1.75
1.76
2.59
2.37
2.48
46.3
35.7
40.8
1.79
1.76
1.78
2.58
2.36
2.47
43.6
33.9
38.6
2.18
2.10
2.14
3.09
2.97
3.03
42.0
41.4
41.7
2.20
2.15
2.17
3.16
3.08
3.12
43.7
43.4
43.6
2.81
2.72
2.76
3.80
3.64
3.72
35.3
33.8
34.5
3.03
2.94
2.98
4.01
3.88
3.95
32.7
32.1
32.4
9.193
9.224
9.209
8.863
9.067
8.966
-3.6
-1.7
-2.6
7.607
7.692
7.650
7.481
7.771
7.627
-1.7
1.0
-0.3
0.8
0.3
0.5
-16.4
-43.1
-30.6
0.849
0.855
0.852
0.856
0.858
0.857
0.104
-0.040
0.032
-0.003
0.031
0.014
Net Imports f
0.633
0.716
0.675
0.530
0.407
0.468
89.2
88.9
89.1
85.4
88.8
87.1
225.0
215.6
225.0
214.9
215.2
214.9
Ending
215.6
219.3
219.3
215.2
212.3
212.3
13,059
13,140
13,099
13,270
13,308
13,289
1.6
1.3
1.5
Real Income
10,058
10,114
10,086
10,189
10,222
10,205
1.3
1.1
1.2
Notes: Minor discrepancies with other Energy Information Administration (EIA) published historical data are due to rounding. Historical data
are printed in bold. Forecasts are in italic. The forecasts were generated by simulation of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Sources: Historical data: latest data available from: EIA,Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109; Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA0035; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (GDP and income); Reuters News Service (WTI crude oil spotprice).
Macroeconomic projections are based on IHS Global Insight Macroeconomic Forecast Model.
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
Energy Supply
Crude Oil Production (a)
(million barrels per day) ..............................
5.49
5.40
5.46
5.54
5.57
5.61
5.52
5.77
5.72
5.70
5.64
5.64
5.47
5.62
5.68
57.93
58.56
59.28
60.66
61.05
63.01
63.47
63.83
63.32
63.79
64.01
64.52
59.12
62.85
63.91
Coal Production
(million short tons) .......................................
265
265
278
277
274
258
260
269
269
257
271
264
1,085
1,061
1,061
Liquid Fuels
(million barrels per day) ..............................
18.87
19.15
19.47
19.23
19.09
18.75
19.19
19.01
19.03
18.93
19.26
19.14
19.18
19.01
19.09
Natural Gas
(billion cubic feet per day) ...........................
83.38
54.41
57.92
68.99
83.90
56.26
57.83
71.40
83.89
56.01
59.10
71.74
66.11
67.29
67.67
Coal (b)
(million short tons) .......................................
265
247
286
250
255
242
283
251
260
232
273
246
1,048
1,031
1,011
Electricity
(billion kilowatt hours per day) ....................
10.61
10.02
12.01
9.92
10.60
10.17
11.98
10.05
10.61
10.21
11.97
10.12
10.64
10.70
10.73
Renewables (c)
(quadrillion Btu) ...........................................
1.76
1.95
1.79
1.83
2.04
2.26
2.02
1.93
2.04
2.22
2.00
2.02
7.33
8.25
8.29
25.71
23.15
24.59
24.62
25.93
23.13
24.56
24.82
26.18
23.20
24.55
24.95
98.08
98.44
98.88
75.89
75.34
74.06
81.69
93.98
108.16
99.18
99.17
101.00
102.00
103.00
104.00
76.72
100.17
102.51
4.79
4.07
4.11
3.67
4.06
4.10
4.08
3.88
3.95
3.78
3.93
4.35
4.15
4.03
4.00
Coal
(dollars per million Btu) ...............................
2.26
2.26
2.28
2.25
2.35
2.41
2.39
2.33
2.40
2.38
2.35
2.31
2.26
2.37
2.36
12,938
2.2
13,059
3.3
13,140
3.5
13,216
3.1
13,228
2.2
13,270
1.6
13,308
1.3
13,354
1.0
13,437
1.6
13,520
1.9
13,585
2.1
13,651
2.2
13,088
3.0
13,290
1.5
13,548
1.9
110.4
0.6
110.8
1.1
111.2
1.4
111.7
1.6
112.4
1.8
113.0
2.0
113.7
2.3
113.9
2.0
114.1
1.5
114.1
0.9
114.5
0.7
115.0
1.0
111.0
1.2
113.3
2.0
114.4
1.0
9,923
-0.3
10,058
1.0
10,114
3.0
10,152
3.5
10,170
2.5
10,189
1.3
10,222
1.1
10,287
1.3
10,337
1.6
10,403
2.1
10,426
2.0
10,448
1.6
10,062
1.8
10,217
1.5
10,403
1.8
85.0
2.2
86.9
7.5
88.1
7.2
89.0
6.6
90.6
6.6
90.8
4.4
91.6
3.9
92.0
3.5
92.7
2.3
93.6
3.1
94.5
3.2
95.2
3.4
87.3
5.8
91.3
4.6
94.0
3.0
2,311
12
422
445
62
930
1,665
68
2,285
33
517
432
82
920
1,625
77
2,250
37
538
347
98
777
1,612
77
4,460
1,455
4,509
1,462
4,498
1,238
Energy Consumption
Energy Prices
Macroeconomic
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption.
(c) Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy.
EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.
(d) The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIAs Monthly Energy Review (MER).
Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER or the Annual Energy Review (AER).
(e) Refers to the refiner average acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report, DOE/EIA-0208; Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380; Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130;
Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226; Quarterly Coal Report, DOE/EIA-0121; and International Petroleum Monthly, DOE/EIA-0520.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model. Macroeconomic projections are based on Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.
Weather projections from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
2nd
2011
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
78.64
75.28
75.89
77.79
74.32
75.34
76.05
73.32
74.06
85.10
81.03
81.69
93.50
94.23
93.98
102.22
108.73
108.16
90.88
99.50
99.18
91.00
99.15
99.17
93.00
101.00
101.00
94.00
102.00
102.00
95.00
103.00
103.00
96.00
104.00
104.00
79.40
75.87
76.72
94.40
100.46
100.17
94.50
102.50
102.51
211
209
205
218
220
212
210
215
204
227
240
234
267
286
275
309
316
307
297
308
301
281
304
301
282
299
299
293
301
298
291
303
298
282
305
303
217
221
215
289
304
293
287
302
300
210
172
219
170
214
166
238
182
287
218
322
246
307
238
304
235
301
235
300
234
301
236
304
241
220
172
305
234
301
236
271
277
285
292
281
286
303
292
272
277
294
282
288
294
315
310
329
335
363
359
380
385
401
393
364
370
388
377
347
353
386
393
348
353
384
396
360
365
386
389
359
365
387
389
348
354
390
399
278
283
299
297
356
361
385
374
354
359
387
395
4.79
5.30
5.15
4.07
4.45
4.32
4.11
4.41
4.28
3.67
3.91
3.80
4.06
4.31
4.18
4.10
4.50
4.37
4.08
4.28
4.16
3.88
4.22
4.10
3.95
4.38
4.25
3.78
4.32
4.19
3.93
4.32
4.20
4.35
4.69
4.55
4.15
4.52
4.39
4.03
4.33
4.20
4.00
4.43
4.30
6.51
9.31
10.59
4.98
9.26
12.55
5.07
9.63
15.49
4.89
8.66
10.56
5.41
8.74
9.97
5.13
9.14
11.94
5.38
9.81
16.28
5.57
9.60
11.74
5.76
9.31
10.73
5.26
9.34
12.41
5.32
9.90
16.39
5.91
10.08
12.39
5.40
9.14
11.19
5.38
9.20
11.23
5.58
9.62
11.87
Coal ...............................................................................
Natural Gas ..................................................................
Residual Fuel Oil (c) ......................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil ...........................................................
End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)
2.26
6.06
12.10
15.84
2.26
4.89
12.36
16.48
2.28
4.88
12.36
16.18
2.25
4.69
14.19
17.94
2.35
5.05
15.88
20.99
2.41
4.94
18.42
23.37
2.39
4.97
18.19
23.26
2.33
4.92
17.96
23.22
2.40
5.09
18.25
22.96
2.38
4.87
18.49
22.91
2.35
4.93
18.55
23.09
2.31
5.36
18.67
23.34
2.26
5.08
12.63
16.60
2.37
4.97
17.70
22.68
2.36
5.04
18.50
23.08
6.53
9.87
10.88
6.75
10.30
11.90
7.17
10.71
12.02
6.67
10.06
11.50
6.68
10.01
11.24
6.83
10.37
11.97
7.30
10.90
12.35
6.77
10.24
11.73
6.69
10.06
11.23
6.79
10.51
12.14
7.17
11.02
12.44
6.73
10.35
11.82
6.79
10.26
11.58
6.90
10.40
11.84
6.85
10.51
11.92
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Average for all sulfur contents.
(b) Average self-service cash price.
(c) Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Prices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review , DOE/EIA-0035.
Natural gas Henry Hub and WTI crude oil spot prices from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3a. International Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
2011
2012
Year
2011
2012
21.42
9.69
3.49
2.98
3.73
1.53
65.51
35.15
29.77
5.39
13.18
4.27
12.90
86.93
21.52
9.89
3.58
2.96
3.59
1.51
66.04
35.28
29.40
5.88
13.39
4.42
12.95
87.56
21.68
9.97
3.79
2.91
3.51
1.51
67.61
36.23
29.92
6.32
13.43
4.55
13.39
89.29
52.96
51.78
52.28
53.06
45.63
19.26
0.27
2.28
14.44
4.02
5.36
44.24
4.70
0.82
10.62
9.93
18.16
89.87
46.26
19.14
0.27
2.27
14.56
4.40
5.63
43.95
4.66
0.82
10.82
10.16
17.49
90.21
46.12
19.18
0.27
2.21
14.58
4.45
5.43
40.71
4.40
0.80
9.17
9.72
16.61
86.83
45.85
19.01
0.27
2.24
14.44
4.44
5.44
42.35
4.52
0.79
10.00
10.02
17.02
88.20
45.79
19.09
0.27
2.24
14.33
4.33
5.53
43.79
4.60
0.80
10.58
10.22
17.59
89.59
-0.39
-0.01
-0.02
-0.42
-0.09
0.28
0.46
0.65
0.55
-0.05
-0.07
0.43
-0.05
-0.03
-0.02
-0.10
0.10
0.14
0.40
0.64
0.04
0.10
0.16
0.30
1,088
2,615
1,096
2,598
1,046
2,551
1,068
2,659
1,062
2,603
1,046
2,551
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
21.56
9.58
3.37
3.02
4.08
1.51
64.55
34.51
29.40
5.11
13.11
4.16
12.78
86.11
21.34
9.58
3.47
2.99
3.74
1.55
65.31
35.02
29.65
5.37
13.15
4.23
12.90
86.65
21.05
9.70
3.49
2.97
3.36
1.54
66.19
35.71
30.15
5.57
13.18
4.31
12.98
87.24
21.75
9.89
3.64
2.95
3.76
1.51
65.96
35.35
29.85
5.49
13.27
4.39
12.96
87.71
21.43
9.77
3.60
2.99
3.60
1.46
66.00
35.32
29.78
5.54
13.28
4.36
13.04
87.43
21.40
9.98
3.40
2.98
3.50
1.52
65.34
34.88
29.20
5.68
13.31
4.37
12.78
86.74
21.56
9.77
3.66
2.97
3.62
1.55
66.73
35.55
29.40
6.16
13.61
4.49
13.08
88.30
21.69
10.02
3.66
2.90
3.62
1.49
66.08
35.36
29.25
6.11
13.37
4.45
12.90
87.77
21.81
9.91
3.74
2.94
3.71
1.51
67.12
35.84
29.59
6.25
13.60
4.51
13.17
88.93
21.76
10.01
3.77
2.92
3.56
1.50
67.46
35.98
29.68
6.30
13.52
4.56
13.40
89.22
21.54
9.98
3.80
2.90
3.33
1.52
67.67
36.28
29.93
6.35
13.37
4.57
13.46
89.21
21.61
9.95
3.85
2.89
3.43
1.49
68.17
36.82
30.45
6.37
13.23
4.58
13.54
89.78
51.60
51.62
51.52
52.36
52.11
51.86
52.74
52.41
53.09
53.24
52.94
45.28
19.15
0.27
2.17
14.25
4.07
5.37
41.14
4.34
0.77
9.31
9.93
16.79
86.42
46.60
19.47
0.27
2.26
14.92
4.36
5.32
40.92
4.49
0.83
8.89
9.47
17.25
87.52
46.70
19.23
0.27
2.25
14.82
4.57
5.57
41.08
4.45
0.83
9.60
9.69
16.52
87.79
46.19
19.09
0.27
2.25
14.21
4.86
5.52
41.30
4.42
0.78
9.65
10.18
16.27
87.50
44.52
18.75
0.27
2.18
14.14
3.92
5.27
42.68
4.47
0.76
10.11
10.20
17.13
87.20
46.06
19.19
0.27
2.28
14.65
4.33
5.35
42.88
4.62
0.81
10.02
9.74
17.69
88.95
46.60
19.01
0.27
2.27
14.77
4.65
5.63
42.53
4.58
0.81
10.21
9.97
16.96
89.13
46.49
19.03
0.27
2.26
14.34
4.92
5.68
42.97
4.50
0.79
10.30
10.38
17.00
89.46
44.79
18.93
0.27
2.17
13.98
3.99
5.45
44.00
4.54
0.77
10.56
10.40
17.72
88.80
-0.21
0.30
0.20
0.28
0.73
0.15
-0.80
0.08
0.27
0.14
-0.34
0.07
-0.42
-0.17
1.04
0.46
-0.06
0.28
0.44
0.65
0.59
0.30
0.47
1.36
0.10
0.17
0.26
0.53
1,135
2,740
1,068
2,659
1,043
2,622
1,081
2,675
1,116
2,685
1,062
2,603
1,053
2,579
1,115
2,747
2010
- = no data available
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
(a) Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
(b) Includes offshore supply from Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom.
(c) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with "petroleum product supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.
Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3b. Non-OPEC Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
2011
2012
Year
2011
2012
16.16
3.49
2.98
9.69
16.43
3.58
2.96
9.89
16.67
3.79
2.91
9.97
5.28
0.72
3.04
1.05
0.46
4.79
0.78
2.74
0.80
0.46
4.97
0.72
2.86
0.94
0.45
5.20
0.73
2.99
1.02
0.46
4.19
1.98
1.11
0.25
4.28
2.03
1.15
0.24
4.61
2.13
1.32
0.28
4.47
2.10
1.22
0.27
4.36
2.07
1.19
0.25
13.52
1.19
1.81
10.14
0.21
0.38
13.37
1.14
1.82
10.03
0.21
0.38
13.23
1.09
1.83
9.93
0.22
0.38
13.18
1.04
1.61
10.14
0.20
0.39
13.39
1.10
1.70
10.20
0.21
0.39
13.43
1.15
1.81
10.08
0.21
0.38
1.42
0.88
0.38
0.11
1.53
0.88
0.38
0.23
1.53
0.88
0.37
0.24
1.53
0.88
0.37
0.24
1.58
0.87
0.40
0.26
1.42
0.87
0.38
0.12
1.51
0.88
0.37
0.20
9.10
0.55
4.45
0.98
1.02
0.64
0.42
9.25
0.55
4.51
1.01
1.03
0.65
0.45
9.30
0.55
4.56
1.00
1.03
0.63
0.48
9.34
0.56
4.57
1.00
1.03
0.63
0.50
9.36
0.53
4.58
1.01
1.03
0.65
0.52
8.88
0.55
4.27
0.95
1.03
0.67
0.34
9.04
0.53
4.42
1.00
1.01
0.65
0.39
9.31
0.55
4.55
1.00
1.03
0.64
0.49
2.59
0.69
0.30
0.22
0.46
2.55
0.68
0.29
0.21
0.46
2.58
0.70
0.29
0.21
0.46
2.58
0.70
0.29
0.21
0.46
2.57
0.70
0.29
0.20
0.46
2.58
0.70
0.29
0.20
0.46
2.58
0.66
0.32
0.23
0.51
2.56
0.67
0.30
0.21
0.47
2.58
0.70
0.29
0.21
0.46
51.86
52.74
52.41
53.09
53.24
52.94
52.96
51.78
52.28
53.06
5.68
57.54
6.16
58.90
6.11
58.52
6.25
59.33
6.30
59.54
6.35
59.29
6.37
59.33
5.39
57.17
5.88
58.16
6.32
59.37
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
15.97
3.37
3.02
9.58
16.04
3.47
2.99
9.58
16.16
3.49
2.97
9.70
16.48
3.64
2.95
9.89
16.36
3.60
2.99
9.77
16.37
3.40
2.98
9.98
16.40
3.66
2.97
9.77
16.58
3.66
2.90
10.02
16.59
3.74
2.94
9.91
16.70
3.77
2.92
10.01
16.69
3.80
2.90
9.98
16.69
3.85
2.89
9.95
4.72
0.80
2.68
0.77
0.47
4.80
0.79
2.75
0.79
0.46
4.81
0.79
2.75
0.81
0.46
4.83
0.75
2.80
0.83
0.45
4.92
0.78
2.82
0.88
0.45
4.91
0.70
2.83
0.93
0.45
5.06
0.72
2.92
0.96
0.46
4.98
0.70
2.86
0.97
0.45
5.07
0.72
2.89
1.00
0.46
5.21
0.73
3.02
1.01
0.46
5.25
0.73
3.03
1.03
0.46
Europe ...............................................
Norway .................................................
United Kingdom (offshore) ..................
Other North Sea ..................................
4.92
2.32
1.46
0.30
4.61
2.11
1.35
0.29
4.24
1.93
1.18
0.25
4.65
2.18
1.30
0.28
4.52
2.10
1.24
0.26
4.42
2.07
1.16
0.28
4.48
2.18
1.17
0.27
4.47
2.06
1.30
0.26
4.57
2.14
1.31
0.26
4.41
2.12
1.19
0.25
13.11
1.00
1.61
10.10
0.20
0.41
13.15
1.05
1.57
10.14
0.20
0.39
13.18
1.05
1.61
10.14
0.20
0.38
13.27
1.06
1.66
10.17
0.21
0.39
13.28
1.00
1.67
10.22
0.21
0.39
13.31
1.00
1.67
10.25
0.21
0.39
13.61
1.23
1.73
10.25
0.21
0.40
13.37
1.17
1.72
10.09
0.21
0.39
13.60
1.19
1.79
10.23
0.21
0.39
1.59
0.86
0.40
0.27
1.58
0.86
0.40
0.26
1.57
0.87
0.40
0.25
1.58
0.88
0.40
0.25
1.56
0.89
0.38
0.24
1.40
0.87
0.38
0.10
1.37
0.87
0.39
0.07
1.36
0.85
0.38
0.07
8.68
0.56
4.16
0.91
1.02
0.68
0.35
8.84
0.58
4.23
0.92
1.04
0.67
0.34
8.99
0.55
4.31
0.98
1.04
0.65
0.36
9.00
0.53
4.39
1.00
1.00
0.66
0.34
8.90
0.46
4.36
1.00
1.00
0.66
0.36
8.92
0.53
4.37
1.00
1.01
0.61
0.35
9.23
0.59
4.49
1.00
1.03
0.67
0.41
Africa ..................................................
Egypt ....................................................
Equatorial Guinea ................................
Gabon ..................................................
Sudan ..................................................
2.61
0.66
0.33
0.23
0.51
2.60
0.66
0.33
0.23
0.51
2.57
0.66
0.32
0.23
0.51
2.55
0.66
0.31
0.22
0.51
2.56
0.66
0.31
0.22
0.49
2.53
0.66
0.31
0.20
0.47
51.60
51.62
51.52
52.36
52.11
5.11
56.71
5.37
56.99
5.57
57.09
5.49
57.86
5.54
57.65
2010
- = no data available
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
Sudan production represents total production from both north and south.
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
Not all countries are shown in each region and sum of reported country volumes may not equal regional volumes.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Supply (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
2011
2012
Year
2011
2012
1.30
1.85
0.49
3.75
2.37
2.28
1.65
2.05
0.85
8.78
2.30
2.11
29.77
29.40
29.92
6.37
5.39
5.88
6.32
36.28
36.82
35.15
35.28
36.23
33.33
33.58
33.96
1.30
1.85
0.49
3.75
2.37
2.60
1.65
2.05
0.85
12.19
2.60
2.11
33.76
32.76
33.53
3.65
3.65
3.51
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.32
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.41
0.30
0.00
3.99
3.35
3.61
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Crude Oil
Algeria ..........................................
Angola ..........................................
Ecudaor ........................................
Iran ...............................................
Iraq ...............................................
Kuwait ...........................................
Libya .............................................
Nigeria ..........................................
Qatar ............................................
Saudi Arabia .................................
United Arab Emirates ....................
Venezuela .....................................
OPEC Total ...............................
1.35
1.97
0.47
3.80
2.42
2.30
1.65
2.03
0.84
8.20
2.30
2.07
29.40
1.30
1.94
0.48
3.80
2.37
2.23
1.65
1.95
0.85
8.70
2.30
2.09
29.65
1.27
1.79
0.49
3.70
2.32
2.30
1.65
2.08
0.85
9.30
2.30
2.10
30.15
1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.40
2.30
1.65
2.12
0.85
8.90
2.30
2.17
29.85
1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.33
1.09
2.13
0.85
9.03
2.43
2.20
29.78
1.27
1.60
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.50
0.17
2.15
0.85
9.13
2.60
2.20
29.20
29.40
29.25
29.59
29.68
29.93
30.45
5.11
5.37
5.57
5.49
5.54
5.68
6.16
6.11
6.25
6.30
6.35
34.51
35.02
35.71
35.35
35.32
34.88
35.55
35.36
35.84
35.98
1.35
1.97
0.47
3.80
2.42
2.60
1.65
2.03
0.85
12.00
2.60
2.07
33.69
1.30
1.94
0.48
3.80
2.37
2.60
1.65
1.95
0.85
12.25
2.60
2.09
33.85
1.27
1.79
0.49
3.70
2.32
2.60
1.65
2.08
0.85
12.25
2.60
2.10
33.70
1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.40
2.60
1.65
2.12
0.85
12.25
2.60
2.17
33.81
1.27
1.70
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.62
1.09
2.13
0.85
12.25
2.66
2.20
33.48
1.27
1.60
0.50
3.70
2.53
2.64
0.17
2.15
0.85
12.25
2.66
2.20
32.51
32.34
32.70
33.24
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.55
0.30
0.00
4.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.95
0.30
0.00
3.55
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.35
0.30
0.00
3.95
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.22
0.23
0.00
3.70
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.12
0.06
0.00
3.31
2.95
3.45
3.65
2010
- = no data available
OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 3d. World Liquid Fuels Consumption (million barrels per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
2011
2012
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23.11
2.15
2.07
18.87
23.43
2.17
2.10
19.15
23.79
2.26
2.05
19.47
23.55
2.25
2.07
19.23
23.37
2.25
2.03
19.09
23.02
2.18
2.09
18.75
23.62
2.28
2.15
19.19
23.45
2.27
2.16
19.01
23.47
2.26
2.17
19.03
23.32
2.17
2.21
18.93
23.71
2.28
2.16
19.26
23.58
2.27
2.16
19.14
6.15
2.51
6.40
2.62
6.39
2.67
6.38
2.65
6.29
2.63
6.55
2.74
6.54
2.80
6.53
2.77
6.49
2.78
6.76
2.89
6.74
2.95
Europe .......................................................................
15.10
15.03
15.75
15.65
14.99
14.90
15.46
15.58
15.12
14.75
4.32
2.92
4.34
2.94
4.49
3.04
4.45
3.00
4.42
2.95
4.47
3.01
4.62
3.10
4.58
3.06
4.50
2.99
6.60
7.30
7.87
7.05
6.94
7.58
8.19
7.42
26.93
8.88
4.82
3.36
26.59
9.31
4.07
3.33
25.99
8.89
4.36
3.05
27.37
9.60
4.57
3.30
28.19
9.65
4.86
3.54
27.43
10.11
3.92
3.41
27.31
10.02
4.33
3.13
Africa ..........................................................................
3.37
3.34
3.25
3.34
3.29
3.24
45.90
39.66
45.28
41.14
46.60
40.92
46.70
41.08
46.19
41.30
85.56
86.42
87.52
87.79
105.59
4.1
106.83
4.6
107.70
4.4
97.58
-6.4
99.82
-1.1
98.69
0.8
2010
2011
2012
23.47
2.21
2.07
19.18
23.37
2.24
2.11
19.01
23.52
2.24
2.18
19.09
6.73
2.92
6.33
2.61
6.48
2.73
6.68
2.88
15.26
15.38
15.38
15.24
15.13
4.54
3.04
4.70
3.13
4.66
3.09
4.40
2.98
4.52
3.03
4.60
3.06
7.40
7.90
8.40
7.67
7.21
7.54
7.84
28.32
10.21
4.65
3.37
29.12
10.30
4.92
3.66
28.21
10.56
3.99
3.52
27.79
10.62
4.02
3.23
28.86
10.82
4.40
3.48
26.72
9.17
4.45
3.26
27.81
10.00
4.44
3.36
28.50
10.58
4.33
3.47
3.20
3.26
3.36
3.31
3.27
3.33
3.32
3.25
3.31
44.52
42.68
46.06
42.88
46.60
42.53
46.49
42.97
44.79
44.00
45.63
44.24
46.26
43.95
46.12
40.71
45.85
42.35
45.79
43.79
87.50
87.20
88.95
89.13
89.46
88.80
89.87
90.21
86.83
88.20
89.59
108.67
4.0
109.34
3.5
109.93
2.9
110.85
2.9
111.90
3.0
113.02
3.4
114.13
3.8
115.19
3.9
116.26
3.9
107.21
4.3
110.51
3.1
114.66
3.8
96.17
0.8
97.31
-0.3
97.00
-2.8
96.43
-2.3
95.88
-0.3
95.65
-1.7
95.73
-1.3
95.79
-0.7
95.85
0.0
98.06
-1.5
96.65
-1.4
95.76
-0.9
- = no data available
Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
(a) Weighted geometric mean of real indices for various countries with weights equal to each country's share of world oil consumption in the base period. Exchange rate is measured in foreign currency per U.S.
dollar.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration international energy statistics; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 4a. U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
1st
Supply (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil Supply
Domestic Production (a) .........................................
Alaska .................................................................
Federal Gulf of Mexico (b) ...................................
Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ...............................
Crude Oil Net Imports (c) ........................................
SPR Net Withdrawals ............................................
Commercial Inventory Net Withdrawals .................
Crude Oil Adjustment (d) ........................................
Total Crude Oil Input to Refineries ............................
Other Supply
Refinery Processing Gain .......................................
Natural Gas Liquids Production .............................
Renewables and Oxygenate Production (e) ...........
Fuel Ethanol Production ......................................
Petroleum Products Adjustment (f) ........................
Product Net Imports (c) ..........................................
Pentanes Plus .....................................................
Liquefied Petroleum Gas .....................................
Unfinished Oils ....................................................
Other HC/Oxygenates ..........................................
Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. ..............................
Finished Motor Gasoline .....................................
Jet Fuel ................................................................
Distillate Fuel Oil .................................................
Residual Fuel Oil .................................................
Other Oils (g) .......................................................
Product Inventory Net Withdrawals ........................
Total Supply ...............................................................
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
5.49
0.64
1.65
3.20
8.82
0.00
-0.38
0.04
13.98
5.40
0.58
1.52
3.30
9.73
0.00
-0.07
0.18
15.24
5.46
0.57
1.52
3.37
9.52
0.00
0.03
0.12
15.13
5.54
0.61
1.51
3.42
8.61
0.00
0.32
0.06
14.54
5.57
0.56
1.54
3.47
8.68
0.00
-0.32
0.31
14.23
5.61
0.56
1.46
3.59
8.95
0.00
0.05
0.21
14.81
5.52
0.51
1.31
3.70
9.41
0.40
-0.06
0.13
15.39
5.77
0.56
1.40
3.81
8.67
0.00
0.23
-0.01
14.66
5.72
0.55
1.43
3.74
8.90
0.00
-0.21
0.07
14.47
5.70
0.53
1.40
3.77
9.22
0.00
0.10
0.09
15.11
5.64
0.51
1.35
3.77
9.35
0.00
0.16
0.04
15.19
5.64
0.49
1.36
3.79
8.76
0.00
0.15
-0.02
14.54
5.47
0.60
1.55
3.32
9.17
0.00
-0.02
0.10
14.72
5.62
0.55
1.43
3.64
8.93
0.10
-0.03
0.16
14.78
5.68
0.52
1.38
3.77
9.06
0.00
0.05
0.04
14.83
1.03
2.05
0.87
0.84
0.15
0.54
-0.03
0.08
0.52
-0.06
0.61
-0.12
0.01
-0.10
-0.02
-0.35
0.26
18.87
1.06
2.07
0.89
0.85
0.16
0.26
-0.01
-0.01
0.57
-0.07
0.74
-0.11
0.02
-0.48
-0.03
-0.38
-0.53
19.15
1.10
2.06
0.91
0.87
0.18
0.35
0.01
-0.02
0.65
-0.09
0.83
-0.12
0.03
-0.54
-0.07
-0.34
-0.24
19.47
1.08
2.13
0.95
0.91
0.18
-0.06
0.01
0.03
0.68
-0.09
0.62
-0.30
-0.01
-0.58
-0.03
-0.39
0.41
19.23
1.03
2.04
0.95
0.91
0.18
0.05
0.01
0.04
0.62
-0.10
0.65
-0.30
-0.04
-0.44
0.02
-0.39
0.60
19.08
1.06
2.19
0.94
0.89
0.19
0.04
0.06
-0.08
0.65
-0.10
0.83
-0.31
0.01
-0.62
-0.03
-0.38
-0.46
18.76
1.05
2.15
0.92
0.89
0.13
-0.11
-0.01
-0.02
0.70
-0.06
0.72
-0.31
-0.01
-0.59
-0.11
-0.40
-0.32
19.21
1.04
2.14
0.93
0.90
0.13
-0.25
-0.01
0.00
0.65
-0.09
0.68
-0.41
-0.04
-0.47
-0.12
-0.44
0.36
19.02
1.00
2.12
0.94
0.91
0.13
0.05
-0.02
0.02
0.62
-0.08
0.69
-0.31
-0.04
-0.48
-0.02
-0.33
0.31
19.03
1.02
2.22
0.94
0.91
0.13
0.00
-0.03
-0.07
0.65
-0.08
0.74
-0.29
0.00
-0.48
-0.03
-0.41
-0.48
18.93
1.05
2.22
0.94
0.91
0.13
-0.02
-0.02
-0.09
0.73
-0.09
0.71
-0.17
0.00
-0.55
-0.09
-0.43
-0.25
19.26
1.04
2.19
0.94
0.91
0.13
-0.11
-0.02
-0.06
0.63
-0.09
0.71
-0.32
-0.02
-0.40
-0.09
-0.45
0.40
19.14
1.07
2.07
0.91
0.87
0.17
0.27
-0.01
0.02
0.61
-0.08
0.70
-0.16
0.01
-0.43
-0.04
-0.36
-0.03
19.18
1.05
2.13
0.94
0.90
0.16
-0.07
0.01
-0.01
0.65
-0.09
0.72
-0.33
-0.02
-0.53
-0.06
-0.40
0.04
19.02
1.03
2.19
0.94
0.91
0.13
-0.02
-0.02
-0.05
0.66
-0.09
0.71
-0.27
-0.02
-0.48
-0.06
-0.41
0.00
19.09
0.09
2.46
0.03
0.07
1.89
0.02
0.11
2.03
0.00
0.10
2.32
0.00
0.10
2.45
0.06
0.11
1.95
-0.03
0.09
2.01
0.00
0.10
2.25
0.01
0.08
2.43
0.01
0.08
1.97
0.00
0.09
2.05
0.00
0.10
2.28
0.02
0.09
2.17
0.01
0.10
2.16
0.01
0.09
2.18
0.01
8.63
1.38
3.79
0.55
1.93
18.87
9.19
1.47
3.71
0.54
2.25
19.15
9.22
1.48
3.75
0.53
2.35
19.47
8.92
1.40
3.94
0.52
2.04
19.23
8.60
1.36
3.95
0.60
1.96
19.09
8.86
1.47
3.75
0.52
2.11
18.75
9.07
1.49
3.80
0.44
2.29
19.19
8.80
1.39
3.95
0.48
2.02
19.01
8.61
1.37
3.98
0.55
1.99
19.03
8.91
1.45
3.79
0.54
2.19
18.93
9.12
1.47
3.79
0.48
2.26
19.26
8.85
1.40
4.02
0.49
1.99
19.14
8.99
1.43
3.80
0.54
2.14
19.18
8.83
1.43
3.86
0.51
2.10
19.01
8.87
1.42
3.90
0.51
2.11
19.09
................................
9.36
9.99
9.87
8.55
8.74
8.99
9.30
8.42
8.95
9.22
9.33
8.66
9.44
8.86
9.04
359.2
9.4
72.9
87.2
22.6
225.0
81.9
143.1
42.2
146.8
40.7
54.4
1,060
727
2.0
365.5
11.5
119.9
84.2
20.5
215.6
71.8
143.8
44.8
157.9
42.7
52.3
1,115
727
2.0
362.8
11.9
141.4
83.3
18.9
219.3
70.2
149.0
46.8
166.7
40.1
43.4
1,135
727
2.0
333.4
12.5
108.3
80.6
19.4
219.4
63.3
156.2
43.2
164.3
41.3
45.0
1,068
727
2.0
362.6
10.8
68.7
87.4
23.2
214.9
60.8
154.1
40.0
148.5
37.1
49.6
1,043
727
0.0
358.5
15.3
105.3
91.9
21.2
215.2
56.4
158.8
42.3
143.7
37.4
50.5
1,081
727
0.0
363.6
15.8
136.2
84.9
20.4
212.3
56.0
156.3
43.8
157.4
38.9
42.9
1,116
690
0.3
342.8
13.0
105.8
81.0
19.8
218.6
55.5
163.0
41.9
157.5
37.9
44.0
1,062
690
1.0
362.3
12.2
75.4
90.0
21.8
219.0
53.1
165.9
42.0
137.6
39.4
53.3
1,053
690
1.0
353.5
13.8
115.6
86.5
20.9
217.9
56.0
161.9
42.6
147.3
39.7
50.6
1,088
690
1.0
338.7
14.5
141.4
85.8
21.4
212.3
56.0
156.3
43.7
156.4
38.6
43.5
1,096
690
1.0
324.7
12.0
106.1
80.1
20.9
220.5
56.2
164.3
41.2
156.9
39.0
44.4
1,046
690
1.0
333.4
12.5
108.3
80.6
19.4
219.4
63.3
156.2
43.2
164.3
41.3
45.0
1,068
727
2.0
342.8
13.0
105.8
81.0
19.8
218.6
55.5
163.0
41.9
157.5
37.9
44.0
1,062
690
1.0
324.7
12.0
106.1
80.1
20.9
220.5
56.2
164.3
41.2
156.9
39.0
44.4
1,046
690
1.0
- = no data available
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Crude oil production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).
(c) Net imports equals gross imports minus gross exports.
(d) Crude oil adjustment balances supply and consumption and was previously referred to as "Unaccounted for Crude Oil."
(e) Renewables and oxygenate production includes pentanes plus, oxygenates (excluding fuel ethanol), and renewable fuels.
(f) Petroleum products adjustment includes hydrogen/oxygenates/renewables/other hydrocarbons, motor gasoline blend components, and finished motor gasoline.
(g) "Other Oils" inludes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still
gas, and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
SPR: Strategic Petroleum Reserve
HC: Hydrocarbons
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 4b. U.S. Petroleum Refinery Balance (Million Barrels per Day, Except Utilization Factor)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
1st
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
13.98
0.14
0.30
0.88
0.41
0.48
0.00
16.20
15.24
0.15
0.24
0.97
0.58
0.73
0.00
17.91
15.13
0.16
0.24
0.98
0.66
0.86
0.00
18.03
14.54
0.17
0.37
0.99
0.71
0.61
0.00
17.38
14.23
0.17
0.34
0.96
0.48
0.60
0.00
16.78
14.81
0.18
0.26
1.01
0.63
0.82
0.00
17.72
15.39
0.16
0.27
0.96
0.77
0.74
0.00
18.29
14.66
0.17
0.38
0.94
0.68
0.60
0.00
17.43
14.47
0.16
0.31
0.94
0.51
0.62
0.00
17.01
15.11
0.15
0.25
0.97
0.68
0.74
0.00
17.91
15.19
0.16
0.26
0.95
0.74
0.75
0.00
18.05
14.54
0.17
0.38
0.96
0.68
0.61
0.00
17.34
14.72
0.16
0.29
0.96
0.59
0.67
0.00
17.38
14.78
0.17
0.31
0.97
0.64
0.69
0.00
17.56
14.83
0.16
0.30
0.96
0.65
0.68
0.00
17.58
1.03
1.06
1.10
1.08
1.03
1.06
1.05
1.04
1.00
1.02
1.05
1.04
1.07
1.05
1.03
0.58
8.59
1.35
3.68
0.61
2.40
17.22
0.86
9.13
1.47
4.31
0.59
2.61
18.97
0.75
9.36
1.47
4.39
0.57
2.59
19.13
0.44
9.14
1.38
4.50
0.56
2.44
18.46
0.52
8.76
1.37
4.21
0.53
2.41
17.80
0.81
9.12
1.49
4.31
0.55
2.50
18.78
0.77
9.33
1.51
4.55
0.57
2.61
19.34
0.43
9.13
1.41
4.43
0.59
2.48
18.48
0.53
8.81
1.41
4.24
0.59
2.43
18.01
0.82
9.14
1.45
4.38
0.58
2.57
18.93
0.76
9.23
1.48
4.44
0.56
2.62
19.10
0.42
9.11
1.39
4.42
0.58
2.46
18.38
0.66
9.06
1.42
4.22
0.58
2.51
18.45
0.63
9.09
1.45
4.38
0.56
2.50
18.60
0.63
9.07
1.43
4.37
0.58
2.52
18.61
14.32
17.59
0.81
15.66
17.57
0.89
15.65
17.59
0.89
15.06
17.55
0.86
14.69
17.70
0.83
15.14
17.72
0.85
15.75
17.74
0.89
15.03
17.74
0.85
14.81
17.74
0.84
15.42
17.74
0.87
15.52
17.74
0.88
14.91
17.74
0.84
15.18
17.57
0.86
15.15
17.72
0.86
15.17
17.74
0.86
- = no data available
(a) "Other Oils" includes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still
gas, and miscellaneous products.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
218
210
227
267
309
297
281
282
293
291
282
217
289
287
278
276
269
284
304
281
286
265
270
257
279
304
272
277
288
286
272
279
311
288
294
329
326
314
311
353
329
335
377
380
365
365
400
380
385
365
365
351
354
375
364
370
347
343
332
344
372
347
353
347
341
334
339
374
348
353
357
353
345
354
390
360
365
357
354
343
358
388
359
365
347
341
333
345
376
348
354
275
274
264
276
303
278
283
355
354
341
344
375
356
361
352
347
339
349
382
354
359
60.1
49.3
72.5
6.4
27.3
215.6
55.3
52.5
73.9
6.5
31.1
219.3
52.7
49.1
78.4
7.0
32.3
219.4
55.0
50.5
70.3
6.5
32.7
214.9
55.1
49.5
73.5
6.6
30.4
215.2
55.5
48.7
73.9
6.4
27.8
212.3
56.9
49.7
74.8
6.9
30.2
218.6
56.9
51.3
74.6
6.7
29.6
219.0
57.5
50.5
73.4
6.2
30.2
217.9
55.8
49.9
71.2
6.3
29.0
212.3
57.9
50.7
74.6
6.9
30.4
220.5
52.7
49.1
78.4
7.0
32.3
219.4
56.9
49.7
74.8
6.9
30.2
218.6
57.9
50.7
74.6
6.9
30.4
220.5
71.8
70.2
63.3
60.8
56.4
56.0
55.5
53.1
56.0
56.0
56.2
63.3
55.5
56.2
143.8
149.0
156.2
154.1
158.8
156.3
163.0
165.9
161.9
156.3
164.3
156.2
163.0
164.3
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD).
See Petroleum for Administration Defense District in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2011
2012
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
60.59
1.16
6.67
52.77
57.93
11.42
9.87
1.55
3.12
8.29
0.20
16.26
82.68
0.70
83.38
61.27
0.98
6.22
54.07
58.56
9.65
8.44
1.22
2.77
6.89
0.16
-11.94
53.67
0.74
54.41
61.97
0.89
5.94
55.14
59.28
9.95
9.01
0.94
2.71
7.23
0.19
-8.22
58.48
-0.55
57.92
63.46
1.11
5.82
56.54
60.66
10.00
8.97
1.03
3.85
6.14
0.19
4.08
71.07
-2.08
68.99
63.83
1.12
5.60
57.10
61.05
11.07
9.84
1.23
4.50
6.57
0.20
16.97
84.80
-0.89
83.90
65.99
1.00
5.24
59.75
63.01
9.03
7.98
1.05
4.13
4.90
0.14
-10.45
57.61
-1.35
56.26
66.47
0.95
5.08
60.45
63.47
9.50
8.65
0.85
3.81
5.69
0.17
-9.60
59.73
-1.91
57.83
66.85
1.07
5.28
60.50
63.83
9.18
8.31
0.87
4.11
5.07
0.19
3.37
72.46
-1.07
71.40
66.31
1.14
5.35
59.82
63.32
10.53
9.34
1.19
4.47
6.06
0.19
14.41
83.98
-0.09
83.89
66.80
0.94
5.40
60.47
63.79
8.85
7.87
0.98
4.19
4.66
0.16
-11.67
56.94
-0.94
56.01
67.03
0.97
5.09
60.97
64.01
9.20
8.36
0.84
4.01
5.18
0.17
-9.26
60.09
-1.00
59.10
67.57
1.09
5.20
61.28
64.52
8.76
7.88
0.87
4.27
4.49
0.19
3.99
73.19
-1.45
71.74
61.83
1.03
6.16
54.64
59.12
10.25
9.07
1.18
3.11
7.13
0.18
-0.01
66.42
-0.31
66.11
65.79
1.03
5.30
59.46
62.85
9.69
8.69
1.00
4.14
5.56
0.17
0.01
68.59
-1.31
67.29
66.93
1.03
5.26
60.64
63.91
9.33
8.36
0.97
4.24
5.09
0.18
-0.64
68.54
-0.87
67.67
7.32
5.73
17.12
19.11
3.62
1.43
0.09
54.41
3.76
4.24
17.01
27.66
3.66
1.52
0.09
57.92
16.73
10.46
18.53
17.62
3.75
1.81
0.09
68.99
26.14
14.72
20.20
16.79
3.77
2.20
0.09
83.90
7.52
5.87
17.73
19.68
3.90
1.47
0.09
56.26
3.58
3.93
17.27
27.44
3.92
1.60
0.09
57.83
17.39
10.58
18.69
18.80
3.95
1.91
0.09
71.40
25.67
14.46
20.25
17.18
3.91
2.33
0.09
83.89
6.70
5.54
17.71
20.42
3.94
1.60
0.09
56.01
3.62
3.95
17.42
28.43
3.96
1.62
0.09
59.10
17.40
10.63
19.05
18.66
3.99
1.91
0.09
71.74
13.57
8.78
18.08
20.21
3.65
1.73
0.09
66.11
13.61
8.75
18.46
20.70
3.88
1.79
0.09
67.29
13.33
8.64
18.60
21.18
3.95
1.87
0.09
67.67
2,741
962
1,330
450
3,500
1,092
1,913
495
3,107
1,077
1,591
439
1,581
738
618
225
2,530
992
1,188
350
3,413
1,081
1,853
479
3,103
1,049
1,644
410
1,791
764
754
274
2,853
1,037
1,394
422
3,705
1,163
2,047
496
3,338
1,116
1,774
449
3,107
1,077
1,591
439
3,103
1,049
1,644
410
3,338
1,116
1,774
449
2010
Year
2011
1st
2012
- = no data available
(a) Marketed production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico.
(b) The balancing item represents the difference between the sum of the components of natural gas supply and the sum of components of natural gas demand.
(c) Natural gas used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(d) For a list of States in each inventory region refer toMethodology for EIA Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Estimates (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/methodology.html).
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
LNG: liquefied natural gas.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; and Electric Power Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
1st
Wholesale/Spot
U.S. Average Wellhead ......
Henry Hub Spot Price ........
Residential
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
Commercial
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
Industrial
New England .....................
Middle Atlantic ...................
E. N. Central ......................
W. N. Central .....................
S. Atlantic ..........................
E. S. Central ......................
W. S. Central .....................
Mountain ............................
Pacific ................................
U.S. Average ..................
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
4.79
5.30
4.07
4.45
4.11
4.41
3.67
3.91
4.06
4.31
4.10
4.50
4.08
4.28
3.88
4.22
3.95
4.38
3.78
4.32
3.93
4.32
4.35
4.69
4.15
4.52
4.03
4.33
4.00
4.43
14.33
12.79
9.54
9.08
12.61
10.50
9.80
9.24
10.43
10.59
15.56
15.17
12.24
11.90
18.74
14.81
14.06
9.83
10.47
12.55
17.73
18.46
16.66
16.65
24.07
17.75
18.30
13.03
11.10
15.49
14.29
12.74
9.37
9.34
12.28
10.73
10.22
9.25
9.89
10.56
13.99
11.85
8.87
8.83
11.97
9.91
8.60
8.87
9.98
9.97
14.28
14.08
10.97
11.04
17.38
13.69
14.31
9.77
10.91
11.94
17.99
18.85
16.47
16.96
24.16
18.32
18.67
13.26
10.93
16.28
15.06
14.21
10.21
9.58
15.17
12.76
11.24
9.35
10.12
11.74
14.40
12.89
9.39
8.83
13.25
11.95
9.96
8.45
10.21
10.73
15.27
14.23
11.49
11.42
17.88
15.01
14.27
9.46
10.13
12.41
18.33
18.31
16.83
17.55
24.86
19.17
19.04
13.29
10.89
16.39
15.68
14.57
11.09
10.27
16.05
13.53
11.89
9.92
10.76
12.39
14.78
13.46
10.24
9.92
13.71
11.33
11.01
9.63
10.37
11.19
14.65
13.31
10.01
9.81
14.35
11.58
10.75
9.51
10.32
11.23
15.19
13.92
10.61
10.08
15.40
13.13
11.76
9.42
10.43
11.87
11.68
10.76
8.85
8.36
10.53
9.42
8.52
8.33
9.48
9.31
11.68
9.77
9.24
8.38
10.74
10.12
9.09
8.11
8.97
9.26
11.45
9.51
9.67
9.53
10.74
10.23
9.19
8.89
9.21
9.63
11.01
9.70
8.14
7.70
9.50
9.08
7.62
8.12
9.10
8.66
11.14
9.85
8.42
7.93
9.80
8.80
7.33
7.99
9.15
8.74
10.64
9.55
8.98
8.44
10.82
9.55
8.58
7.98
9.19
9.14
11.21
9.53
9.72
9.63
11.26
10.62
9.28
8.85
9.04
9.81
11.88
10.69
8.80
7.90
11.11
10.56
8.80
8.35
9.17
9.60
11.92
10.35
8.70
8.00
10.75
9.96
8.14
8.06
9.00
9.31
12.03
9.98
9.14
8.18
11.01
10.40
8.51
7.82
8.39
9.34
12.06
9.96
9.61
9.70
11.34
10.96
9.37
8.77
8.71
9.90
12.48
11.12
9.34
8.38
11.55
11.23
9.32
8.61
9.65
10.08
11.47
10.15
8.76
8.28
10.28
9.51
8.50
8.29
9.21
9.14
11.26
10.00
8.72
8.13
10.65
9.57
8.23
8.19
9.15
9.20
12.09
10.45
9.02
8.26
11.12
10.47
8.68
8.25
9.00
9.62
11.41
10.04
7.98
6.73
7.61
7.21
5.58
7.32
7.77
6.51
9.74
9.01
7.01
5.65
6.14
5.64
4.36
6.36
7.01
4.98
9.07
9.01
6.96
5.53
6.28
5.61
4.59
6.59
7.01
5.07
10.21
9.54
6.88
5.74
6.09
5.44
3.98
6.40
6.92
4.89
10.67
9.58
7.39
6.28
6.52
5.83
4.24
6.81
7.45
5.41
9.81
9.27
7.19
5.75
6.24
5.58
4.46
6.42
7.22
5.13
10.09
9.08
7.33
5.47
7.11
6.34
4.75
7.09
7.14
5.38
11.24
10.20
7.16
5.85
7.37
6.79
4.43
7.75
7.96
5.57
11.97
10.00
7.49
6.32
7.34
6.92
4.41
7.67
7.75
5.76
11.19
8.63
7.09
5.26
6.69
6.11
4.63
6.61
6.40
5.26
10.61
8.72
7.35
5.45
7.18
6.59
4.71
7.01
6.49
5.32
11.82
10.57
7.65
6.18
7.87
7.29
4.79
7.96
8.03
5.91
10.37
9.60
7.38
6.00
6.61
6.06
4.62
6.72
7.21
5.40
10.59
9.64
7.28
5.85
6.86
6.17
4.48
7.02
7.47
5.38
11.55
9.73
7.45
5.87
7.30
6.76
4.64
7.39
7.26
5.58
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130.
Natural gas Henry Hub spot price from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
265.3
84.4
37.7
143.3
-2.4
4.8
17.8
14.2
3.6
249.9
265.1
84.4
37.8
142.8
1.5
5.1
22.0
15.6
6.4
249.7
278.2
83.5
41.4
153.3
6.2
4.7
21.1
13.0
8.0
268.0
276.6
83.8
40.7
152.1
0.3
4.8
20.9
13.3
7.6
260.8
273.6
87.3
41.5
144.8
4.8
3.4
26.6
17.2
9.5
255.2
258.1
84.2
38.3
135.7
-1.7
3.5
27.0
17.8
9.1
232.9
260.4
81.3
38.4
140.7
1.0
4.5
23.3
15.7
7.7
242.5
269.1
86.0
40.2
143.0
1.2
4.6
22.1
15.1
7.1
252.7
269.3
80.5
38.3
150.5
-4.6
4.4
19.5
15.2
4.3
249.6
256.5
79.0
36.7
140.8
0.5
4.4
23.1
15.8
7.2
238.3
270.8
83.4
36.7
150.7
3.8
5.2
22.5
14.0
8.5
257.3
264.3
81.7
36.3
146.3
-0.2
4.8
21.5
14.3
7.3
247.3
1085.3
336.1
157.6
591.6
5.6
19.4
81.7
56.1
25.6
1028.5
1061.2
338.7
158.3
564.2
5.2
15.9
99.1
65.8
33.3
983.3
1060.9
324.6
148.0
588.3
-0.5
18.8
86.6
59.4
27.3
992.6
13.1
3.1
266.1
-3.8
3.3
249.1
18.1
3.2
289.4
-12.5
3.2
251.6
7.2
3.2
265.6
2.5
3.2
238.5
16.4
3.2
262.0
-4.5
3.2
251.4
7.3
3.2
260.1
-9.9
3.2
231.5
12.6
3.2
273.1
-4.5
3.2
246.0
14.9
12.7
1056.1
21.6
12.7
1017.6
5.5
12.8
1010.8
4.9
246.3
13.4
1.0
12.4
264.6
5.4
229.8
12.3
0.6
11.7
247.4
5.5
267.9
12.8
0.6
12.1
286.1
5.4
231.6
13.2
0.8
12.4
250.1
5.2
235.1
14.4
1.0
13.3
254.7
5.7
223.7
12.4
0.6
11.8
241.8
6.7
263.9
12.4
0.6
11.8
283.1
6.4
232.2
12.9
0.8
12.0
251.4
6.3
240.3
13.5
1.0
12.5
260.1
6.0
212.6
13.0
0.8
12.2
231.5
6.6
253.8
12.7
0.8
11.8
273.1
6.2
226.5
13.3
1.2
12.1
246.0
21.1
975.6
51.6
3.1
48.5
1048.3
24.0
954.9
52.1
3.1
49.0
1030.9
25.1
933.2
52.5
3.9
48.6
1010.8
1.5
1.7
3.2
1.4
11.0
-3.2
-21.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.8
-13.3
0.0
48.7
187.8
181.1
4.3
2.0
42.4
169.7
162.8
4.5
1.9
42.2
182.2
175.2
4.5
1.9
37.3
174.9
167.0
5.5
2.0
39.1
172.4
165.8
4.1
2.1
38.1
156.1
148.9
4.6
2.0
36.9
160.6
153.1
4.9
2.1
41.5
153.3
146.7
4.2
1.8
41.0
163.3
155.9
4.5
2.2
37.2
150.6
142.8
5.1
2.2
37.4
155.1
147.0
5.4
2.2
42.2
182.2
175.2
4.5
1.9
36.9
160.6
153.1
4.9
2.1
37.4
155.1
147.0
5.4
2.2
5.58
5.58
5.59
5.60
5.57
5.57
5.57
5.57
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.70
5.59
5.57
5.70
0.234
0.253
0.245
0.237
0.257
0.261
0.267
0.250
0.261
0.273
0.264
0.254
0.242
0.259
0.263
2.26
2.26
2.28
2.25
2.35
2.41
2.39
2.33
2.40
2.38
2.35
2.31
2.26
2.37
2.36
Discrepancy (c)
- = no data available
(a) Waste coal includes waste coal and cloal slurry reprocessed into briquettes.
(b) Coal used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(c) The discrepancy reflects an unaccounted-for shipper and receiver reporting difference, assumed to be zero in the forecast period.
(d) Primary stocks are held at the mines and distribution points.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Quarterly Coal Report , DOE/EIA-0121; and Electric Power Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0226.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2011
3rd
4th
1st
12.65
12.22
0.40
0.02
0.06
12.71
0.70
10.58
10.19
0.37
0.02
0.04
10.62
0.70
11.04
10.65
0.37
0.02
0.08
11.12
0.52
11.62
4.74
4.09
2.76
0.02
0.39
12.01
9.56
3.48
3.45
2.61
0.02
0.36
9.92
2.28
4.88
12.36
16.18
12.02
10.71
7.17
2nd
2012
2010
Year
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2012
10.93
10.54
0.37
0.02
0.10
11.03
0.85
12.64
12.21
0.40
0.02
0.12
12.76
0.78
10.72
10.32
0.38
0.02
0.08
10.80
0.74
11.11
10.70
0.40
0.02
0.08
11.19
0.58
11.02
10.61
0.39
0.02
0.08
11.10
0.89
12.65
12.21
0.42
0.02
0.11
12.76
0.79
10.78
10.37
0.39
0.02
0.07
10.85
0.74
11.29
10.88
0.38
0.02
0.07
11.36
0.72
11.33
10.93
0.38
0.02
0.10
11.43
0.73
11.40
10.97
0.40
0.02
0.08
11.48
0.75
10.25
4.15
3.45
2.62
0.02
0.35
10.60
9.82
3.52
3.58
2.70
0.02
0.35
10.17
11.60
4.68
4.12
2.78
0.02
0.38
11.98
9.69
3.51
3.54
2.63
0.02
0.36
10.05
10.23
4.08
3.48
2.65
0.02
0.38
10.61
9.84
3.46
3.61
2.75
0.02
0.37
10.21
11.57
4.63
4.08
2.83
0.02
0.40
11.97
9.74
3.54
3.52
2.67
0.02
0.37
10.12
10.27
3.97
3.64
2.64
0.02
0.37
10.64
10.34
3.96
3.67
2.68
0.02
0.36
10.70
10.35
3.93
3.67
2.73
0.02
0.38
10.73
2.25
4.69
14.19
17.94
2.35
5.05
15.88
20.99
2.41
4.94
18.42
23.37
2.39
4.97
18.19
23.26
2.33
4.92
17.96
23.22
2.40
5.09
18.25
22.96
2.38
4.87
18.49
22.91
2.35
4.93
18.55
23.09
2.31
5.36
18.67
23.34
2.26
5.08
12.63
16.60
2.37
4.97
17.70
22.68
2.36
5.04
18.50
23.08
11.50
10.06
6.67
11.24
10.01
6.68
11.97
10.37
6.83
12.35
10.90
7.30
11.73
10.24
6.77
11.23
10.06
6.69
12.14
10.51
6.79
12.44
11.02
7.17
11.82
10.35
6.73
11.58
10.26
6.79
11.84
10.40
6.90
11.92
10.51
6.85
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) Includes transmission and distribution losses, data collection time-frame differences, and estimation error.
(c) Direct Use represents commercial and industrial facility use of onsite net electricity generation; and electrical sales or transfers to adjacent or colocated facilities
for which revenue information is not available. See Table 7.6 of the EIA Monthly Energy Review .
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 7b. U.S. Regional Electricity Retail Sales (Million Kilowatthours per Day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
1st
Residential Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Commercial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Industrial Sector
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
Total All Sectors (a)
New England ...............
Middle Atlantic .............
E. N. Central ................
W. N. Central ...............
S. Atlantic .....................
E. S. Central ................
W. S. Central ...............
Mountain ......................
Pacific contiguous .......
AK and HI .....................
Total ..........................
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
141
394
579
337
1,129
405
595
243
424
15
4,261
114
326
456
250
878
291
514
227
346
13
3,414
150
444
639
350
1,232
428
771
325
391
13
4,742
122
335
481
261
891
294
467
225
390
15
3,482
145
405
577
331
1,042
373
574
248
441
15
4,152
116
329
457
252
910
295
566
227
354
13
3,518
146
430
627
354
1,178
416
811
310
396
13
4,681
126
343
485
268
877
287
475
233
398
15
3,506
143
398
575
326
1,016
371
545
245
444
15
4,079
115
325
455
256
875
294
530
235
358
13
3,457
142
423
595
341
1,184
415
762
332
418
13
4,626
124
342
495
273
882
298
484
230
393
15
3,536
132
375
539
300
1,032
354
587
255
388
14
3,975
133
377
537
301
1,002
343
607
254
397
14
3,965
131
372
530
299
990
345
580
261
404
14
3,925
123
443
490
266
792
220
442
234
420
17
3,447
120
434
491
267
852
228
479
251
432
16
3,571
137
506
555
302
965
271
578
285
478
17
4,092
119
425
481
261
804
213
450
241
442
17
3,453
123
435
497
268
789
216
447
237
425
18
3,454
119
421
486
262
861
226
504
250
432
17
3,577
138
502
558
303
968
270
592
283
488
17
4,119
123
434
491
268
824
216
463
247
452
17
3,535
126
447
498
266
802
214
447
235
428
17
3,481
122
434
499
268
860
226
496
254
438
17
3,613
136
495
549
301
969
263
578
286
488
18
4,084
121
430
488
265
824
213
467
245
444
18
3,515
125
452
504
274
853
233
487
253
443
17
3,642
126
448
508
275
861
232
502
254
449
17
3,673
126
451
508
275
864
229
497
255
450
17
3,674
76
178
523
222
360
336
397
195
214
13
2,514
77
186
544
235
397
334
432
209
228
14
2,655
83
192
551
245
406
334
464
232
245
14
2,765
76
181
534
233
379
334
421
207
229
14
2,607
75
195
539
233
377
343
420
204
221
14
2,620
77
194
545
237
400
342
448
217
233
13
2,705
81
192
540
243
399
350
469
240
250
14
2,778
75
179
531
236
377
346
429
211
229
14
2,629
75
186
542
234
379
360
430
209
223
13
2,652
77
190
549
240
401
357
457
228
233
14
2,746
80
196
557
252
407
359
474
244
251
14
2,835
76
185
535
241
380
364
434
216
226
14
2,671
78
184
538
234
385
334
429
211
229
14
2,636
77
190
539
238
388
345
442
218
233
14
2,683
77
189
546
242
392
360
449
224
233
14
2,726
342
1,027
1,594
825
2,286
960
1,433
672
1,061
45
10,246
312
957
1,492
752
2,130
854
1,425
687
1,008
43
9,660
371
1,152
1,746
897
2,606
1,032
1,813
842
1,117
44
11,620
318
952
1,498
755
2,078
842
1,338
673
1,063
45
9,562
345
1,047
1,614
832
2,211
932
1,441
688
1,089
46
10,247
313
954
1,490
751
2,174
863
1,519
693
1,020
43
9,820
366
1,135
1,727
900
2,548
1,036
1,873
833
1,137
44
11,599
325
968
1,509
772
2,081
849
1,368
691
1,081
46
9,691
346
1,043
1,617
827
2,201
945
1,422
690
1,098
46
10,235
315
960
1,505
764
2,141
876
1,484
717
1,032
44
9,837
360
1,127
1,703
895
2,564
1,038
1,815
862
1,160
45
11,568
322
969
1,519
779
2,090
875
1,386
691
1,066
46
9,744
336
1,022
1,583
808
2,275
922
1,503
719
1,063
45
10,274
337
1,026
1,585
814
2,254
920
1,551
727
1,082
45
10,341
336
1,025
1,586
816
2,249
934
1,527
740
1,089
45
10,347
- = no data available
(a) Total retail sales to all sectors includes residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sector sales.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Retail Sales represents total retail electricity sales by electric utilities and power marketers.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
16.56
14.82
10.50
8.33
10.46
8.81
10.28
9.71
12.03
10.88
16.60
16.16
11.88
10.08
11.31
9.90
11.00
10.83
12.47
11.90
16.46
16.65
11.82
10.61
11.42
10.02
10.79
11.22
13.37
12.02
16.43
15.39
11.38
9.45
10.94
10.05
10.46
9.97
12.20
11.50
15.99
15.20
11.01
9.06
10.86
9.77
10.08
9.76
12.02
11.24
16.13
15.96
12.02
10.49
11.51
10.31
10.77
10.84
12.49
11.97
16.87
16.96
12.11
10.96
11.80
10.44
11.09
11.33
13.81
12.35
16.79
15.42
11.55
9.58
11.35
10.30
10.56
10.30
12.17
11.73
16.86
15.04
10.94
8.96
10.74
9.50
10.25
9.95
11.97
11.23
17.08
16.39
12.15
10.49
11.52
10.41
10.94
11.07
12.70
12.14
16.94
17.35
12.19
10.94
11.84
10.40
10.98
11.49
14.04
12.44
16.89
15.78
11.65
9.64
11.39
10.27
10.47
10.47
12.41
11.82
16.51
15.79
11.39
9.61
11.03
9.66
10.64
10.50
12.51
11.58
16.45
15.92
11.67
10.03
11.39
10.20
10.67
10.61
12.61
11.84
16.94
16.17
11.72
10.01
11.39
10.13
10.69
10.81
12.78
11.92
15.27
13.23
9.17
7.08
9.13
8.86
8.95
8.20
10.78
9.87
14.71
13.93
9.51
7.93
9.33
9.33
8.80
9.04
12.20
10.30
15.33
14.60
9.59
8.60
9.42
9.54
8.74
9.25
14.05
10.71
14.46
13.43
9.28
7.58
9.35
9.75
8.53
8.40
11.40
10.06
14.41
13.23
9.29
7.60
9.45
9.67
8.57
8.32
10.97
10.01
14.40
13.55
9.64
8.43
9.55
9.80
8.66
9.04
12.33
10.37
15.08
14.76
9.57
8.79
9.75
9.90
9.06
9.34
14.07
10.90
14.51
13.24
9.31
7.63
9.67
9.86
8.69
8.76
11.81
10.24
14.95
13.08
9.18
7.49
9.42
9.44
8.82
8.48
11.25
10.06
14.91
13.90
9.51
8.32
9.58
9.76
8.86
9.17
12.70
10.51
15.21
15.03
9.66
8.88
9.83
9.88
9.01
9.42
14.38
11.02
14.62
13.49
9.40
7.73
9.75
9.86
8.66
8.85
12.10
10.35
14.96
13.83
9.40
7.83
9.31
9.38
8.75
8.76
12.17
10.26
14.62
13.74
9.46
8.14
9.61
9.81
8.77
8.89
12.36
10.40
14.93
13.91
9.44
8.13
9.66
9.74
8.85
9.01
12.66
10.51
12.33
8.50
6.34
5.43
6.45
5.31
6.08
5.69
7.29
6.53
12.91
8.52
6.48
5.74
6.53
5.85
6.00
6.17
7.84
6.75
12.78
8.71
6.71
6.45
7.00
6.33
6.14
6.87
8.73
7.17
12.62
8.30
6.52
5.67
6.54
5.97
5.80
5.65
7.68
6.67
12.68
8.62
6.41
5.75
6.53
5.85
5.77
5.60
7.43
6.68
12.62
8.38
6.49
6.10
6.73
6.07
6.00
6.07
7.74
6.83
12.93
8.58
6.90
6.65
7.19
6.36
6.40
6.80
8.68
7.30
12.88
8.34
6.54
5.74
6.69
5.95
6.05
5.74
7.75
6.77
12.77
8.77
6.46
5.73
6.62
5.78
5.88
5.77
7.42
6.69
12.59
8.40
6.50
6.00
6.52
5.88
6.02
6.25
7.88
6.79
12.78
8.35
6.74
6.54
6.90
6.20
6.27
6.94
8.79
7.17
12.87
8.25
6.51
5.72
6.62
5.86
6.01
5.83
7.90
6.73
12.66
8.51
6.51
5.84
6.64
5.87
6.01
6.13
7.91
6.79
12.78
8.48
6.59
6.07
6.79
6.06
6.07
6.08
7.93
6.90
12.75
8.44
6.55
6.00
6.67
5.93
6.05
6.22
8.02
6.85
15.12
13.01
8.72
7.14
9.37
7.60
8.71
8.02
10.57
9.47
14.92
13.63
9.13
7.96
9.63
8.16
8.74
8.76
11.30
9.89
15.19
14.40
9.50
8.80
9.99
8.70
8.95
9.35
12.64
10.40
14.74
13.13
8.97
7.64
9.52
8.36
8.35
8.08
10.89
9.66
14.66
13.13
8.94
7.66
9.62
8.30
8.35
8.03
10.76
9.66
14.57
13.32
9.22
8.38
9.85
8.50
8.67
8.70
11.33
9.97
15.29
14.53
9.65
9.06
10.30
8.92
9.27
9.35
12.78
10.63
14.98
13.09
9.05
7.73
9.84
8.41
8.51
8.36
11.08
9.84
15.23
13.04
8.89
7.57
9.55
8.07
8.48
8.18
10.75
9.65
15.10
13.63
9.21
8.32
9.80
8.39
8.73
8.87
11.60
10.04
15.33
14.71
9.59
9.01
10.30
8.82
9.12
9.51
13.03
10.64
15.05
13.27
9.11
7.78
9.88
8.34
8.46
8.44
11.31
9.89
15.00
13.58
9.09
7.91
9.64
8.21
8.71
8.60
11.37
9.88
14.89
13.56
9.23
8.23
9.92
8.55
8.74
8.65
11.51
10.05
15.18
13.69
9.21
8.19
9.90
8.42
8.73
8.80
11.70
10.08
- = no data available
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Volume-weighted average of retail prices to residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric
Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
Table 7d. U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel and Sector (Billion Kilowatthours per day)
Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2011
2010
Electric Power Sector (a)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Other Gases ................................
Petroleum ....................................
Residual Fuel Oil .......................
Distillate Fuel Oil .......................
Petroleum Coke ........................
Other Petroleum .......................
Nuclear ........................................
Pumped Storage Hydroelectric .....
Renewables:
Conventional Hydroelectric ........
Geothermal ...............................
Solar .........................................
Wind .........................................
Wood and Wood Waste ............
Other Renewables ....................
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Subtotal Electric Power Sector .....
Commercial Sector (c)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Petroleum ....................................
Renewables (d) ............................
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Subtotal Commercial Sector .........
Industrial Sector (c)
Coal .............................................
Natural Gas ..................................
Other Gases ................................
Petroleum ....................................
Renewables:
Conventional Hydroelectric ........
Wood and Wood Waste ............
Other Renewables (e) ...............
Other Fuels (b) .............................
Subtotal Industrial Sector .............
Total All Sectors ...........................
2011
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
5.028
2.118
0.009
0.074
0.020
0.015
0.034
0.005
2.230
-0.016
4.436
2.479
0.010
0.080
0.028
0.015
0.034
0.003
2.181
-0.015
5.206
3.467
0.010
0.088
0.034
0.014
0.037
0.003
2.321
-0.019
4.668
2.308
0.009
0.076
0.023
0.016
0.033
0.003
2.152
-0.015
5.017
2.461
0.008
0.094
0.039
0.020
0.033
0.002
2.211
-0.011
4.908
2.510
0.009
0.079
0.029
0.016
0.032
0.003
2.135
-0.015
4.835
2.595
0.010
0.080
0.026
0.015
0.034
0.004
2.221
-0.016
0.637
0.044
0.002
0.319
0.030
0.044
0.020
10.316
0.754
0.045
0.003
0.351
0.032
0.046
0.020
10.696
0.890
0.044
0.009
0.400
0.029
0.049
0.021
10.614
0.667
0.046
0.010
0.304
0.039
0.052
0.021
12.211
0.643
0.045
0.003
0.374
0.037
0.049
0.020
10.370
0.700
0.043
0.004
0.259
0.032
0.044
0.019
10.880
0.844
0.045
0.005
0.319
0.029
0.045
0.019
10.932
0.738
0.045
0.006
0.357
0.034
0.049
0.020
10.975
0.003
0.014
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.024
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.004
0.002
0.022
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.004
0.002
0.022
0.003
0.011
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022
0.003
0.014
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.024
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.004
0.002
0.022
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.023
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022
0.047
0.211
0.022
0.005
0.052
0.228
0.025
0.006
0.049
0.214
0.023
0.006
0.051
0.227
0.024
0.006
0.051
0.220
0.024
0.005
0.055
0.237
0.026
0.006
0.051
0.220
0.024
0.006
0.051
0.216
0.023
0.006
0.049
0.216
0.023
0.006
0.052
0.226
0.024
0.006
0.006
0.067
0.002
0.009
0.370
10.928
0.003
0.074
0.002
0.011
0.401
12.639
0.004
0.073
0.002
0.009
0.380
10.718
0.006
0.072
0.002
0.009
0.397
11.115
0.006
0.071
0.002
0.010
0.389
11.025
0.003
0.077
0.002
0.011
0.418
12.653
0.004
0.075
0.002
0.010
0.392
10.784
0.004
0.072
0.002
0.010
0.385
11.288
0.005
0.070
0.002
0.009
0.380
11.334
0.005
0.074
0.002
0.010
0.399
11.396
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5.181
2.011
0.009
0.094
0.034
0.023
0.034
0.003
2.249
-0.008
4.750
2.306
0.009
0.095
0.042
0.016
0.034
0.002
2.116
-0.008
5.450
3.329
0.008
0.111
0.054
0.019
0.035
0.002
2.314
-0.015
4.688
2.188
0.006
0.078
0.027
0.020
0.028
0.003
2.164
-0.014
4.887
2.059
0.008
0.082
0.025
0.017
0.037
0.003
2.258
-0.011
4.619
2.349
0.008
0.068
0.028
0.017
0.026
0.002
1.943
-0.016
5.364
3.316
0.009
0.095
0.042
0.016
0.033
0.003
2.248
-0.019
4.757
2.305
0.009
0.071
0.022
0.014
0.032
0.003
2.093
-0.015
0.697
0.044
0.001
0.235
0.032
0.042
0.017
10.605
0.797
0.043
0.005
0.291
0.029
0.045
0.020
10.497
0.658
0.042
0.005
0.221
0.034
0.044
0.020
12.221
0.647
0.043
0.002
0.290
0.030
0.045
0.019
10.187
0.900
0.046
0.003
0.329
0.030
0.042
0.017
10.650
1.050
0.044
0.007
0.372
0.025
0.047
0.019
10.537
0.794
0.044
0.007
0.257
0.031
0.047
0.020
12.214
0.003
0.011
0.000
0.004
0.002
0.022
0.003
0.011
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022
0.003
0.014
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.025
0.003
0.012
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.022
0.003
0.011
0.000
0.004
0.002
0.022
0.002
0.011
0.000
0.005
0.002
0.021
0.052
0.216
0.022
0.007
0.047
0.211
0.023
0.007
0.055
0.228
0.024
0.007
0.048
0.211
0.022
0.006
0.049
0.209
0.022
0.006
0.006
0.072
0.002
0.009
0.384
11.011
0.005
0.072
0.002
0.010
0.377
10.897
0.003
0.075
0.002
0.011
0.404
12.650
0.004
0.072
0.002
0.009
0.374
10.583
0.005
0.067
0.002
0.008
0.368
11.039
1st
- = no data available
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) "Other" includes non-biogenic municipal solid waste, batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, tires and miscellaneous technologies.
(c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants.
(d) "Renewables" in commercial sector includes wood, black liquor, other wood waste, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass,
geothermal, solar thermal, photovoltaic energy and wind.
(e) "Other Renewables" in industrial sector includes black liquor, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass, geothermal, solar thermal,
photovoltaic energy and wind.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Values of 0.000 may indicate positive levels of generation that are less than 0.0005 billion kilowatthours per day.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual ,
DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
2.72
15.48
0.17
0.06
0.04
0.07
0.01
2.51
18.25
0.17
0.07
0.03
0.07
0.00
2.90
26.72
0.20
0.09
0.04
0.07
0.00
2.51
16.78
0.14
0.04
0.04
0.05
0.01
2.60
15.83
0.15
0.04
0.03
0.07
0.00
2.45
18.81
0.12
0.05
0.03
0.05
0.00
2.86
26.42
0.17
0.07
0.03
0.06
0.01
2.51
17.70
0.13
0.03
0.03
0.06
0.01
2.63
16.06
0.14
0.03
0.03
0.06
0.01
2.33
19.39
0.14
0.05
0.03
0.07
0.01
2.75
27.29
0.16
0.06
0.03
0.07
0.01
2.45
17.55
0.14
0.04
0.03
0.06
0.01
2.66
19.33
0.17
0.07
0.04
0.06
0.00
2.60
19.71
0.14
0.05
0.03
0.06
0.01
2.54
20.09
0.14
0.04
0.03
0.07
0.01
0.00
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.02
1.48
0.01
0.02
1.44
0.01
0.02
1.57
0.01
0.02
1.44
0.01
0.02
1.48
0.01
0.02
1.47
0.01
0.02
1.57
0.01
0.02
1.46
0.01
0.02
1.60
0.01
0.02
1.53
0.01
0.02
1.63
0.01
0.02
1.50
0.01
0.02
1.48
0.01
0.02
1.49
0.01
0.02
1.56
0.01
2.75
17.05
0.18
2.53
19.79
0.18
2.93
28.40
0.21
2.53
18.32
0.15
2.62
17.40
0.16
2.47
20.36
0.13
2.88
28.09
0.18
2.53
19.25
0.13
2.65
17.76
0.14
2.35
21.01
0.15
2.77
29.02
0.17
2.47
19.14
0.14
2.68
20.91
0.18
2.63
21.30
0.15
2.56
21.75
0.15
175.2
16.7
17.1
5.4
167.0
15.6
16.8
2.8
165.8
15.4
16.8
2.8
148.9
14.3
17.0
3.2
153.1
12.7
17.2
3.1
146.7
13.1
16.7
3.2
155.9
15.0
16.7
3.2
142.8
14.6
16.8
3.2
147.0
14.0
17.1
3.1
175.2
16.7
17.1
5.4
153.1
12.7
17.2
3.1
147.0
14.0
17.1
3.1
- = no data available
(a) Electric utilities and independent power producers.
(b) Petroleum category may include petroleum coke, which is converted from short tons to barrels by multiplying by 5.
(c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Physical Units: mmst/d = million short tons per day; mmb/d = million barrels per day; bcf/d = billion cubic feet per day; mmb = million barrels.
Values of 0.00 may indicate positive levels of fuel consumption that are less than 0.005 units per day.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power
Annual , DOE/EIA-0348.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2nd
2011
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
0.618
0.053
0.025
0.208
0.490
0.270
0.011
0.110
1.786
0.713
0.053
0.029
0.261
0.491
0.275
0.012
0.115
1.949
0.593
0.053
0.029
0.200
0.508
0.284
0.010
0.114
1.792
0.585
0.054
0.026
0.263
0.497
0.298
0.007
0.115
1.844
0.795
0.055
0.026
0.292
0.478
0.293
0.014
0.111
2.065
0.941
0.071
0.030
0.333
0.471
0.290
0.024
0.117
2.278
0.723
0.101
0.030
0.233
0.512
0.291
0.026
0.121
2.039
0.582
0.101
0.026
0.289
0.505
0.295
0.027
0.116
1.940
0.682
0.101
0.027
0.315
0.503
0.294
0.026
0.116
2.063
0.804
0.099
0.033
0.358
0.490
0.295
0.026
0.123
2.229
0.608
0.103
0.033
0.275
0.539
0.299
0.027
0.131
2.015
0.587
0.103
0.027
0.339
0.527
0.298
0.028
0.123
2.032
2.509
0.212
0.109
0.933
1.986
1.128
0.039
0.454
7.371
3.041
0.327
0.113
1.147
1.967
1.169
0.091
0.464
8.322
2.680
0.406
0.119
1.288
2.059
1.186
0.107
0.493
8.339
0.618
0.038
0.001
0.208
0.048
0.060
0.975
0.715
0.038
0.005
0.261
0.044
0.064
1.127
0.596
0.038
0.005
0.200
0.049
0.063
0.952
0.587
0.039
0.002
0.263
0.046
0.064
1.001
0.798
0.041
0.003
0.292
0.045
0.061
1.239
0.942
0.056
0.006
0.333
0.037
0.067
1.441
0.720
0.086
0.006
0.233
0.047
0.067
1.158
0.578
0.086
0.002
0.289
0.046
0.064
1.065
0.676
0.087
0.003
0.315
0.049
0.066
1.195
0.798
0.085
0.008
0.358
0.044
0.071
1.363
0.605
0.088
0.009
0.275
0.059
0.076
1.112
0.583
0.088
0.003
0.339
0.056
0.071
1.140
2.516
0.153
0.013
0.933
0.189
0.252
4.055
3.037
0.268
0.016
1.147
0.175
0.259
4.903
2.662
0.347
0.023
1.288
0.208
0.283
4.810
0.005
0.001
0.321
0.041
0.372
0.005
0.001
0.324
0.042
0.376
0.003
0.001
0.335
0.042
0.385
0.003
0.001
0.326
0.042
0.378
0.005
0.001
0.312
0.041
0.363
0.005
0.001
0.311
0.042
0.363
0.003
0.001
0.343
0.045
0.395
0.004
0.001
0.337
0.043
0.389
0.005
0.001
0.332
0.042
0.384
0.006
0.001
0.324
0.044
0.379
0.003
0.001
0.357
0.047
0.412
0.004
0.001
0.348
0.044
0.401
0.016
0.004
1.307
0.168
1.511
0.016
0.004
1.303
0.171
1.510
0.018
0.004
1.361
0.177
1.576
0.000
0.005
0.017
0.008
0.031
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.009
0.033
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032
0.000
0.005
0.017
0.008
0.031
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.031
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.009
0.032
0.000
0.005
0.018
0.008
0.032
0.001
0.019
0.070
0.034
0.127
0.001
0.018
0.071
0.033
0.127
0.001
0.018
0.071
0.033
0.128
0.009
0.104
0.024
0.136
0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138
0.009
0.106
0.024
0.140
0.009
0.106
0.024
0.140
0.009
0.104
0.024
0.136
0.009
0.105
0.024
0.139
0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138
0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138
0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138
0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138
0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138
0.009
0.105
0.024
0.138
0.037
0.420
0.097
0.554
0.037
0.418
0.096
0.551
0.037
0.419
0.097
0.553
0.251
0.009
0.275
0.011
0.280
0.010
0.284
0.008
0.263
0.015
0.277
0.025
0.281
0.024
0.285
0.025
0.276
0.026
0.287
0.026
0.285
0.027
0.288
0.027
1.091
0.039
1.107
0.090
1.136
0.106
1.765
1.948
1.788
1.831
2.036
2.262
2.023
1.928
2.045
2.221
2.001
2.022
7.332
8.250
8.288
- = no data available
(a) Conventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy.
(b) Fuel ethanol and biodiesel supply represents domestic production only. Fuel ethanol and biodiesel consumption in the transportation sector includes production, stock change, and imports
less exports. Some biodiesel may be consumed in the residential s
(c) Other renewable energy sources include municipal solid waste from biogenic sources, landfill gas, sludge waste, agricultural byproducts, and other biomass.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226 and Renewable Energy Annual , DOE/EIA-0603; Petroleum
Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2011
2012
2010
Year
2011
2012
13,651
13,088
13,290
13,548
10,426
10,448
10,062
10,217
10,403
1,814
1,838
1,861
1,648
1,735
1,825
5.84
5.94
3.40
3.98
20.26
21.10
4.79
123.5
123.5
123.6
123.6
123.6
123.5
123.5
123.6
131.2
131.4
131.8
132.3
132.7
133.1
129.8
131.1
132.5
89.1
89.3
89.6
90.1
90.7
91.1
91.4
87.8
89.2
90.8
92.8
90.6
103.1
89.7
93.0
90.8
102.5
87.9
93.6
91.6
102.5
87.8
93.6
92.0
102.9
88.0
94.2
92.7
103.4
88.2
94.8
93.6
104.1
88.6
95.3
94.5
104.7
89.3
95.8
95.2
105.3
89.8
90.1
87.3
102.3
89.0
93.3
91.3
102.8
88.4
95.0
94.0
104.4
89.0
87.0
98.0
69.1
85.3
79.1
92.5
87.5
88.6
96.2
67.5
90.3
78.8
99.6
89.0
88.8
96.4
69.7
90.3
74.7
97.2
88.0
88.9
97.1
69.6
90.8
74.9
96.7
88.2
89.0
97.4
69.5
91.1
75.0
96.1
88.3
89.3
97.6
69.6
91.3
75.4
95.6
88.5
89.8
97.8
70.5
91.9
75.7
95.8
88.9
90.5
98.1
72.3
93.2
76.4
96.3
89.7
91.0
98.3
74.3
94.2
76.9
96.4
90.2
86.7
96.5
67.6
83.3
77.0
94.0
86.5
88.8
96.8
69.0
90.6
75.9
97.4
88.4
90.2
97.9
71.7
92.6
76.1
96.0
89.3
2.18
2.19
2.22
2.25
2.26
2.27
2.27
2.27
2.29
2.30
2.18
2.25
2.28
1.83
1.82
1.90
1.99
2.02
2.01
2.00
1.99
1.98
1.99
2.02
1.85
2.00
2.00
2.17
2.26
2.20
2.38
2.74
3.22
3.04
2.95
2.94
2.99
3.00
2.97
2.25
2.99
2.98
110.4
110.8
111.2
111.7
112.4
113.0
113.7
113.9
114.1
114.1
114.5
115.0
111.0
113.3
114.4
7,663
8,555
8,523
8,127
7,657
8,391
8,401
8,042
7,728
8,448
8,481
8,107
8,219
8,125
8,191
491
530
546
526
519
545
542
523
523
556
553
535
523
532
542
293
330
341
323
307
339
340
314
301
347
344
320
322
325
328
266.4
282.0
282.2
282.2
298.2
308.1
310.3
318.0
318.9
317.5
305.4
301.9
278.2
308.6
310.9
0.234
0.253
0.245
0.237
0.257
0.261
0.267
0.250
0.261
0.273
0.264
0.254
0.242
0.259
0.263
599
283
543
1,425
593
338
474
1,405
575
403
483
1,461
577
272
457
1,306
590
283
536
1,409
584
350
477
1,411
577
407
494
1,477
579
271
440
1,290
591
289
518
1,398
588
351
467
1,407
2,349
1,286
1,990
5,625
2,326
1,308
1,953
5,588
2,335
1,319
1,919
5,572
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
12,938
13,059
13,140
13,216
13,228
13,270
13,308
13,354
9,923
10,058
10,114
10,152
10,170
10,189
10,222
1,582
1,654
1,664
1,694
1,699
1,723
12.38
4.84
24.17
39.65
33.28
123.5
123.6
123.6
123.5
129.3
130.0
129.9
87.3
87.6
1st
2nd
3rd
13,437
13,520
13,585
10,287
10,337
10,403
1,746
1,773
1,787
25.72
14.97
10.42
123.5
123.5
123.5
130.1
130.5
131.0
87.9
88.2
88.6
89.5
86.9
101.4
89.5
91.0
88.1
103.3
88.8
91.7
89.0
103.9
89.1
85.5
86.3
96.9
68.0
84.1
74.7
93.2
86.2
86.5
98.0
68.8
82.1
78.1
89.5
86.6
2.18
2.17
1.85
4th
Macroeconomic
Real Gross Domestic Product
- = no data available
(a) Natural gas share weights of individual sector indices based on EIAManufacturing Energy Consumption Survey, 2002.
(b) Total highway travel includes gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17; Federal Highway Administration;
and Federal Aviation Administration.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy and Regional Economic Information and simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.
2011
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
2010
Year
2011
2012
723
1,949
1,828
868
2,423
619
1,539
885
2,370
725
1,955
1,831
871
2,433
621
1,547
888
2,378
727
1,959
1,833
873
2,441
623
1,553
890
2,385
729
1,966
1,840
875
2,450
625
1,560
893
2,393
732
1,976
1,851
880
2,467
629
1,572
899
2,406
736
1,987
1,862
885
2,484
633
1,585
905
2,420
738
1,995
1,869
889
2,497
636
1,594
910
2,432
741
2,003
1,874
892
2,512
640
1,604
915
2,447
717
1,932
1,815
860
2,397
614
1,514
874
2,341
726
1,957
1,833
872
2,437
622
1,550
889
2,381
737
1,990
1,864
887
2,490
634
1,589
907
2,426
93.0
90.6
87.4
94.1
86.3
87.2
95.5
90.1
91.6
92.9
90.7
87.4
94.2
86.3
87.5
95.7
90.3
91.8
93.6
91.3
88.0
94.9
86.9
88.5
96.7
91.2
92.8
94.0
91.6
88.3
95.3
87.3
89.2
97.3
91.7
93.5
94.4
92.0
89.0
96.0
87.8
90.2
98.2
92.5
94.2
94.9
92.7
90.0
97.0
88.6
91.5
99.3
93.2
94.9
95.5
93.5
90.9
98.0
89.5
92.8
100.3
94.1
95.6
95.8
94.1
91.7
99.0
90.1
93.8
101.1
94.7
96.1
89.5
87.4
84.0
90.4
83.8
84.2
91.3
86.2
88.3
93.4
91.0
87.8
94.6
86.7
88.1
96.3
90.8
92.4
95.1
93.1
90.4
97.5
89.0
92.1
99.7
93.6
95.2
644
1,729
1,603
739
2,132
565
1,275
735
1,938
644
1,733
1,604
741
2,138
566
1,281
737
1,944
646
1,740
1,605
743
2,146
568
1,287
740
1,950
649
1,752
1,610
744
2,161
570
1,297
745
1,963
653
1,763
1,616
748
2,178
574
1,307
751
1,975
657
1,777
1,627
754
2,194
578
1,317
757
1,989
659
1,785
1,632
756
2,203
581
1,325
761
1,998
661
1,792
1,636
758
2,214
583
1,332
766
2,007
632
1,697
1,571
719
2,088
553
1,241
720
1,897
646
1,739
1,605
742
2,145
568
1,285
739
1,949
657
1,779
1,628
754
2,197
579
1,320
759
1,992
5,497
15,240
17,687
8,094
22,374
7,123
12,950
7,998
17,056
5,493
15,240
17,672
8,100
22,403
7,125
12,976
8,015
17,075
5,493
15,247
17,669
8,110
22,443
7,132
13,012
8,036
17,102
5,495
15,254
17,666
8,123
22,487
7,144
13,055
8,061
17,137
5,501
15,264
17,683
8,142
22,548
7,160
13,107
8,096
17,186
5,510
15,283
17,713
8,166
22,630
7,180
13,165
8,135
17,246
5,520
15,303
17,746
8,190
22,721
7,203
13,226
8,175
17,308
5,532
15,325
17,783
8,215
22,820
7,227
13,292
8,218
17,370
5,498
15,231
17,697
8,085
22,342
7,117
12,921
7,980
17,033
5,495
15,254
17,666
8,123
22,487
7,144
13,055
8,061
17,137
5,532
15,325
17,783
8,215
22,820
7,227
13,292
8,218
17,370
6.8
18.0
20.0
9.9
24.8
7.4
15.1
9.1
19.3
6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
24.9
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.3
6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
25.0
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.4
6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
25.0
7.4
15.3
9.1
19.4
6.8
18.2
20.1
10.0
25.1
7.4
15.3
9.2
19.5
6.8
18.2
20.2
10.0
25.2
7.5
15.4
9.2
19.5
6.8
18.3
20.3
10.0
25.3
7.5
15.4
9.3
19.6
6.8
18.3
20.3
10.1
25.4
7.5
15.5
9.3
19.7
6.7
17.9
20.0
9.8
24.7
7.3
14.9
9.0
19.2
6.8
18.1
20.1
9.9
24.9
7.4
15.2
9.1
19.3
6.8
18.2
20.2
10.0
25.3
7.5
15.4
9.2
19.6
- = no data available
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.
2010
1st
2nd
Heating Degree-days
New England ................
2,948
634
Middle Atlantic ..............
2,805
477
E. N. Central .................
3,217
523
W. N. Central ................
3,475
536
South Atlantic ...............
1,804
144
E. S. Central .................
2,297
169
W. S. Central ................
1,608
79
Mountain .......................
2,313
780
Pacific ...........................
1,312
678
U.S. Average ............
2,311
422
Heating Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a)
New England ................
3,219
930
Middle Atlantic ..............
2,968
752
E. N. Central .................
3,227
798
W. N. Central ................
3,326
729
South Atlantic ...............
1,523
247
E. S. Central .................
1,895
299
W. S. Central ................
1,270
112
Mountain .......................
2,321
741
Pacific ...........................
1,419
556
U.S. Average ............
2,242
543
Cooling Degree-days
New England ................
0
129
Middle Atlantic ..............
0
261
E. N. Central .................
0
282
W. N. Central ................
1
320
South Atlantic ...............
34
772
E. S. Central .................
8
679
W. S. Central ................
27
950
Mountain .......................
11
370
Pacific ...........................
7
120
U.S. Average ............
12
445
Cooling Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a)
New England ................
0
81
Middle Atlantic ..............
0
151
E. N. Central .................
1
208
W. N. Central ................
3
270
South Atlantic ...............
113
576
E. S. Central .................
29
469
W. S. Central ................
80
790
Mountain .......................
17
383
Pacific ...........................
10
171
U.S. Average ............
34
353
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
2012
3rd
4th
1st
2nd
Year
3rd
4th
2010
2011
2012
81
57
99
142
7
11
2
116
93
62
2,280
2,116
2,369
2,430
1,264
1,516
833
1,745
1,086
1,665
3,314
3,023
3,306
3,517
1,501
1,866
1,273
2,338
1,481
2,285
846
609
755
769
179
247
101
773
675
517
158
104
129
141
24
31
8
129
93
82
2,257
2,051
2,302
2,484
1,055
1,373
865
1,923
1,145
1,625
3,255
2,994
3,258
3,359
1,515
1,874
1,220
2,332
1,439
2,250
929
748
794
727
242
290
102
727
556
538
184
124
155
182
24
32
9
167
107
98
2,242
2,037
2,276
2,474
1,040
1,352
875
1,923
1,138
1,612
5,942
5,455
6,209
6,583
3,219
3,993
2,521
4,954
3,170
4,460
6,575
5,787
6,492
6,911
2,759
3,517
2,247
5,163
3,394
4,509
6,610
5,903
6,483
6,742
2,821
3,548
2,206
5,149
3,240
4,498
190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101
2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638
3,219
2,968
3,227
3,326
1,523
1,895
1,270
2,321
1,419
2,242
930
752
798
729
247
299
112
741
556
543
190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101
2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638
3,219
2,968
3,227
3,326
1,523
1,895
1,270
2,321
1,419
2,242
930
752
798
729
247
299
112
741
556
543
190
127
156
183
25
33
9
183
108
101
2,272
2,064
2,316
2,512
1,058
1,377
896
1,964
1,145
1,638
6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524
6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524
6,611
5,911
6,497
6,750
2,853
3,604
2,287
5,209
3,228
4,524
526
730
684
787
1,292
1,256
1,593
991
495
930
0
5
10
15
168
61
179
78
33
68
0
0
0
1
99
9
113
11
2
33
111
216
227
294
789
653
1,091
316
68
432
443
637
680
836
1,230
1,157
1,730
942
550
920
0
5
8
13
208
62
183
66
41
77
0
0
1
3
114
33
90
15
7
37
70
141
198
263
574
468
805
382
151
347
353
517
502
653
1,090
1,009
1,431
866
513
777
0
5
8
12
213
63
177
75
41
77
656
996
976
1,123
2,265
2,005
2,749
1,450
655
1,455
554
858
915
1,144
2,326
1,881
3,117
1,335
661
1,462
423
663
709
931
1,991
1,573
2,503
1,338
712
1,238
361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775
1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80
0
0
1
3
113
29
80
17
10
34
81
151
208
270
576
469
790
383
171
353
361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775
1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80
0
0
1
3
113
29
80
17
10
34
81
151
208
270
576
469
790
383
171
353
361
508
511
661
1,081
1,002
1,424
839
526
775
1
7
10
14
213
66
185
68
49
80
443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242
443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242
443
666
730
948
1,983
1,566
2,479
1,307
756
1,242
- = no data available
(a) 30-year normal represents average over 1971 - 2000, reported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIAs Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Projections: Based on forecasts by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.