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Stock Valuation
The worth of something is its benet stream divided by an appropriate discount rate
Not just one benet stream Not just one discount rate
Steps
Determine benet stream Compare benet stream to its history Compare benet stream to its industry Adjust forecast as necessary based on analysis Choose discount/multiple consistent with the benet.
Enterprise vs Equity Market approach vs Income approach vs Cost Approach
Steps (cont)
Determine value at chosen level Adjust for non-participants at chosen level Further adjust for control, marketability, and liquidity
Earnings
Easy to identify
Requires cash to earnings conversion factor Ignores balance sheet requirements Morgan&Company
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Historical vs Projected
Historical
Linear benet stream Capitalization Tax or divorce valuation
Projected
Non-linear benet stream Discount rate
Mature company
The difference between discounting and capitalizing is in how we reect changes over time in expected cash ows:
In discounting: Each future increment of return is estimated specically and put in the numerator. In capitalizing: Estimates of changes in future returns are lumped into one annually compounded growth rate, which is then subtracted from the discount rate in the denominator.
Source: Shannon Pratt
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What is a constant growth stock? One whose free cash flow is expected to grow forever at a constant rate, g.
Source: Brigham Ehrhardt
If g is constant, then:
=
Source: Brigham Ehrhardt
$2.12 0.07
$30.29.
What is the stocks market value one ^ year from now, P1?
D1 will have been paid, so expected dividends are D2, D3, D4 and so on. Thus,
$32.10.
If we have supernormal growth of 30% for 3 years, then a long-run ^ constant g = 6%, what is P0? k is still 13%.
Can no longer use constant growth model at t = 0. However, growth becomes constant after 3 years.
1
g = 30%
2
g = 30%
3
g = 6%
4 4.6576
2.60
3.38
4.394
Approaches
Income Market Cost
Ibbotson Build-Up
ks = rf + ERP + SP + SCR
ks = cost of equity rf = expected return of riskless asset ERP = expected equity risk premium SP = size premium SCR = specic company risk
Customer concentration, key person dependence, supplier concentration, abnormal competition, unstable regulatory environment, pending lawsuits, etc.
Morgan&Company
A Strategy Implementation Consulting Group
Morgan&Company
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CAPM
ks = rf + (B*ERP)
ks = cost of equity rf = expected return of riskless asset ERP = expected equity risk premium B = beta
Morgan&Company
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Determining WACC
WACC = (kd * % of debt to total capital) + (ke * % of common to total capital) + (kp * % of preferred to total capital)
Morgan&Company
2007. All rights reserved. A Strategy Implementation Consulting Group
Morgan&Company
2007. All rights reserved. A Strategy Implementation Consulting Group
Levels of Value
Public ly Trad ed Eq
uivale
nt
Morgan&Company
A Strategy Implementation Consulting Group