DAILY COMMODITY OUTLOOK

16 Sep, 11

th

MCX SILVER DEC. CONTRACT OPEN `64775

HIGH

`64897

LOW

`63031

CLOSE

`63257

MCX SILVER DEC Contract Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy As we had mentioned in our previous few notes, the price of silver have been trading in a well defined rising channel since 05th Jul, 2011. The first bearish sign was when the rally that had began from the lows of `58882 levels as on 25th Aug, 2011 couldnt cross the resistance placed between the `66650`66890 zones. The second and the most important bearish event played out during the previous session of trade as the selling pressure dragged the price of silver below its key ascending trendline support on a closing basis. This ascending trendline had been providing strong support for the prices on every pullback. The MACD indicator is also trading in sell mode. We believe that sustenance below the trendline for the upcoming few sessions can lead to severe corrections in the price of silver and open up downside targets of `61250 and/or `59000.

We recommend traders to sell 50% on rise between `63790--`64000 levels and 50% again between `64275--`64350 with a stop loss placed above `64727 levels for downside targets mentioned above.

DAILY COMMODITY OUTLOOK

COMMODITIES TO WATCH

16 Sep, 11

th

NCDEX Guar Seed Oct CMP`4528.00

Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy:-

The price of Guarseed has registered an inverted head & shoulders pattern breakout on its intraday charts. The prices have also registered a close above the neckline resistance placed at the `4490 levels on a closing basis. The key momentum indicators are trading in bullish mode. Thus, we recommend traders to buy between `4540--`4515 levels with a stop loss placed below `4437 levels for upside targets of `4630 / `4720 levels expected to be achieved in 2-3 sessions.

INVENTORY DATA

LME Warehouse Stocks (Inventory) and Volume

15 Sep 2011 METALS

Inventory MT 4,588,400 132,240 151,500 466,150 322,675 98,220 21,195 837,300 +/-7,125 140 -180 -625 -325 -486 -110 -1,450

Volume MT 5,233,125 117,400 135,480 4,566,700 1,267,500 178,896 24,425 1,719,675 +/-1,759,125 -127,200 39,140 986,400 281,575 -75,576 -980 -64,800

Aluminum Al Alloy NASAAC Copper Lead Nickel Tin Zinc

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