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IDEA
September 2011
IV - Opportunities and strategies for defence manufacturing and strategic electronics VII - Risk mitigation: what did the industry learn Which role for distribution? VIII - FBDi: Pictorial and Mandatory Data IX - The more the merrier in the electronics value chain X - Industry metrics the book-to-bill ratio XII - A decade of upheaval
enjoy
FORTRONIC
electronics f o r u m
Percent
ASSOCIATIONS
International Distribution of Electronics Association
-4.1%
-3.2%
-8.6%
-7.6%
-1.9%
0.8%
5.4%
ARDEC - Russia
co mp trend. Firstly, Graphic T6 below, are d w ith sa me p e rio d p rio r yea r The IDEA statistics are taken from actual this shows the growth/decline in bookings and billings returns made by a substantial percentage of the electronic component quarterly sales for each country compared 15% distributors in Europe, including all the major with the same quarter last year. Whilst all distribution groups. Their sales represent Circa 10% the countries are still showing a billings 70% of the total European distribution market so the trends shown are truly representative. growth5% between 8% and 12%, clearly of Q1 the rate of growth has declined sharply. Q2 performance across most of Europe and 0% a lesser degree of weakening in Germany However, it is still a growth! At least for -5% overall helping the trend. this quarter, as we all know next quarter, Q3, is always the worst each year so -10% ECONOmIC BACKGROUND it will be interesting to see whether Q3 -15%a growth over last year! Secondly, Eurostat shows that the euro area remains Avg F r ance U K & E i re I taly No rd i c G erm an y seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate Graphic T5 shows that bookings for most was 9.9% in June 2011, unchanged of Europe have faltered when compared compared with May. with last year despite a strong Emech
8.3% 10.2% 16.5% 20%
G ra p h ic T -6
Just to remind readers. If you would like to have theoriginal graphics G rap h ic T -5 used YTD Bookings Trend 2nd Qtr. 2011 Total Com ponents in this article just email to the IDEA secretary at segreteria@ideaelectronics.com wo charts clearly show the current
C umu la tive o rd er s fo r E lectro n ic co mp o ne nts via distri bu tion by co un try for cu rr en t ye a r to d ate
ECAANZ - Australia
2nd Qtr. 2011 To tal Co m pon ents Tend ential Index b y C oun try Q2 2011 TOTAL COmpONENTS - Total components tendential index by country (Q/QY-1) Graphic T6 (Q/QY -1)
Tre nd sho w in g g ro w th/d ecli ne % in q ua rter ly sale s of a ll co m p on en ts th ro u gh distri bu tion spl it b y co un try com pa re d w i th sam e q ua rte r pr ior ye a r
70%
50%
FBDI - Germany
30%
-13.4%
7.2%
A ll Fra n c e UK
Tunisian Federation of Electric and Electronic Industries The Swedish Electronics Trade Associations
10%
It a ly No rd ic
-1 0 %
Ger ma ny
FORTRONIC
electronics f o r u m
JEpIA - Japan
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-3 0 %
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INTERNATIONAL ELECTRONICS SUPPLIERS
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International Distribution of Electronics Association
G rap h ic T -5
G r aph ic T -1
Q2 2011 TOTAL COmpONENTSTotal BOOKINGS TREND Bookings Trend Graphic T5 2nd Qtr. 2011 YTD Com ponents YTD
C umu la tive o rd er s fo r E lectro n ic co mp o ne nts via distri bu tion by co un try for cu rr en t ye a r to d ate co mp are d w ith sa me p e rio d p rio r yea r
16.5% 20%
Q2 2011 TOTAL COmpONENTS BOOKING, BILLING & BOOK-BILL RATIO Graphic T1 ratio
To tal d istrib utio n e le ctron ic co mpo n en ts bo oki ng , b ill ing an d Bo ok:b ill ra tio fo r G e rma ny, Fra nce , Ital y, UK , Sw ed en , Nor way, De nm ar k & Fin lan d
1.15 1. 30 1. 20 1. 10 1.16 1.00 0.95 1. 00 0. 90 0.91 0. 80 0. 70 500 0. 60 0. 50
the electronic community
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0.96
10.2%
7.2%
10%
8.3%
Percent
5% 0.8%
Q1
electronics
Q2
f o r u m
0.98
FORTRONIC
1000
5.4%
1.09
1500
0.96
1.24
1.08
15%
1.11
2000
Billing
0% -1.9% -3.2%
the electronic community
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B2 B
-4.1%
-5%
-10%
-8.6%
-7.6%
-13.4%
No rd i c
G erm an y
0. 40
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G ra p h ic T -6
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Percent change k
0.94 -9.2%
-12.0%
-13.0%
-1 0 %
-23.0%
Consorzio Q2 was still -3 0 % di attivit e servizi a growth quarter per Associazioni -5 0 % 3 Q4 Q 1 -0 9 Q2 e Qgruppi dimprese Q 3
-12.0%
0.92
0.96
It was Tre nd sho w in g g w th/d ecli ne % in ua rter of a ll co m p on en ts th ro u gh distri bu tion spl it y However, Eurostatroestimates qpa re d ly isale s Europe,iorEurostat shows bthat co un try com w th sam e q ua rte r pr ye a r that over 22 million men the annual rate of inflation and women in the Eu were actually dropped from 2.7% unemployed in June 2011. in June 2011 to 2.5% in July Compared with May 2011, 2011! the number of persons unemployed fell by 38.000. ELECTRONIC Ger ma ny
INTERNATIONAL ELECTRONICS SUPPLIERS
2nd Qtr. 2011 To tal Co m pon ents Tend ential Index b y C oun try 10.2% in June 2010. (Q/QY to food and fuel prices across -1)
h ic T -2
Graphic P-1
Q2 2011 pASSIvE BOOKING, BILLING & BOOK-BILL RATIO 2nd Qtr 2011 Passives booking, billing & book:bill ratio Graphic P1
D istrib u ti on o rd e rs for E le ctron ic co m po n en ts by c o un try com pa rin g Q 4 2 0 10 w ith p rio r qu a rter (Q /Q 1) an d sa m e q u ar te r p rio r yea r (Q /Q Y-1 )
INTERNATIONAL ELECTRONICS SUPPLIERS
70%
5%
Passive components Bookings, billings & book:bill ratio for Germany, France, Italy, UK, Sweden, Norway, Denmark & Finland
0.8%
250
0%
1.40 1.30
-1.7%
50%
30%
A ll
200
-5.4%
1.20 1.10
1.14
1.11
1.13
Fra n c e UK It a ly
-5 % -6.5% -6.2%
Billing
Q / Q -1
electronics
1.08
-7.0%
1.06
-6.9%
10%
0.98
0.97
No rd ic Consorzio
-1 0 %
1.01
1.01
150
Q / Q Y -1 FORTRONIC
f o r u m
Booking
-1 5 %
100
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Q4
Q 1 -1 0
P ercent
-0.7%
The latest European Industrial production figures released by Eurostat on the 12th August Page | 6 are for June 2011 and show that, compared with June 2011, although production increased by 2.9%, it fell by 0.7% when compared with the prior month (May). Also, surprisingly when one considers what is happening
Graphic T1 shows that, on a quarterly basis, total billings were 12.6% up on the same quarter last year but 5% down on Q1, which is historically always the strongest quarter. What is of greater concern is that book:bill which has been positive or flat since Q3 2009, has dropped to 0.95:1.00 in Q2 2011. Within this total semis dropped to 0.93:1.00, Passives dropped
-2 0 % 50
0.60 0.50
G er m an y
Associazione Nazionale Fornitori Elettronica
-2 5 %
Q3
A vg
Q4
Q1-09
Fr a nc e
Q2
Q3
U K & E i re G r ap
Q4
Q1-10
Ita l y
Q2
Q3
No r di c
0.40
Q4
Q1-11 Q2-11
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Graphic P-2
-20%
Distribution semiconductor bookings, billings & book:bill ratio for Germany, France, Italy, UK, All France UK & Eire Italy Nordic Germany Sweden, Norway, Denmark & Finland 1.40
1.31
1400
-16.7%
Graphic S-1
2nd Qtr. 2011 Semiconductor BILLING & Billings & RATIO ratio Q2 2011 SEmICONDUCTORS BOOKING, Bookings, BOOK-BILLbook:billGraphic S1
-14.9%
-15%
-10.5%
to 0.97:1.00 and it was only QUARTERLY SALES BY Distribution orders for passive components by country comparing Q3 2010 with the prior quarter emech components (Q/Q-1) and the same quarter pRODUCT FAmILY that prior year (Q/QY-1) 10% bucked the trend by remaining Each quarter we look at both positive at 1.02:1.00. booking and billing trends by 5% both product and by market. 0% Book:bill decline Firstly product. must be viewed as Breaking the product totalQ/Q-1 into -5% a sign of difficult the main elements, initiallyQ/QY-1 the -10% times ahead largest: semiconductors.
INTERNATIONAL ELECTRONICS SUPPLIERS
-4.0%
-2.7%
7.8%
-6.7%
-7.9%
-8.7%
-8.3%
-9.1%
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1200
1.30 1.20
1.19 1.17 1.12
1.13
1000
1.10
1.08
Billing
800
0.97
1.00
0.98 0.93
Booking
electronics f o r u m
600
0.89
0.95
0.95
B2B
the electronic community
400 200
Source: eurostat
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II
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Graphic S-2
Distribution orders for semiconductors by country compared with the prior quarter (Q/Q1) and the
Fornitori Elettronica
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International Distribution of Electronics Association
Gr 1st Qtr. 2011 Total TREND Q1 aph ic T -3TOTAL COmpONENTS BILLING Components Billing Trend 2011
Graphic T3
32.2%
Total Com ponents Booking, Bil ling & Book:bill Q2 2011 1st Qtr.COmpONENTS BILLING TREND TOTAL 2011 2nd Qtr. 2011 Total Components Billing Trend Graphic T3 ratio
D istr ib utio n sa le s o f E lectro n ic Com po ne n ts b y Cou n try comp a rin g cu rre nt q tr w ith p rio r qu a rter ( Q en ) nd sam , q ua rte an d Bo ok:b Q/Q -4 To tal d istrib utio n e le ctron ic co mpo n/Q1tsabo oki nge b ill ing r pri or ye a r (ill ra tio )fo r G e rma ny, Fra nce , Ital y, UK , Sw ed en , Nor way, De nm ar k & Fin lan d 25%
1.24 1.16
20% 2000 15% 18.6%
D istr ib utio n sa le s o f E lectro n ic Com po ne n ts b y Cou n try comp a rin g cu rre nt q tr w ith p rio r qu a rter ( Q /Q1 ) a nd sam e q ua rte r pri or ye a r ( Q/Q -4 )
35%
1. 30 1. 20 1. 10
26.0%
26.4%
26.4%
1.02
1.15
30%
1.05
1.09
1.11
8.5% 0.98
20.2%
19.9%
20.4%
0.96
8.5%
0.99
25%
22.6%
12.9%
1.01 7.9%
0.91
Percent change
14.9%
14.7%
0.98
0.98
electronics
f o r u m
0.97
FORTRONIC
Q/Q-1 11.3% Q/Q-4
the electronic community
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5.2%
20%
Percent change
17.6%
1500 10%
5%
1.08
1. 00
Billing
FORTRONIC 0. 90
electronics f o r u m
15%
1000 0%
-5%
0.96
Q/Q-1
Boo king
0. 80 Q/Q-4
the electronic community
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-3.5%
10%
0. 70
-5.2% -4.5%
B2 B
-5.0%
500
5%
- 10%
-5.2%
0. 60 0. 50
- 15%
-9.0%
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International Distribution of Electronics Association
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Avg Q 1- Q 2 07
Q3
F ran ce Q 4 Q 108
Q2
Q2
Italy Q3
Q4
No rd ic Q 1- Q 2 10
Q3
G er m an y Q 4 Q 111
0. 40Fornitori Elettronica
Associazione Nazionale
Gr aph ic T -4
Percent
Percent
Percent change
15.6%
20%
Graphic S1 shows that, after six quarters of positive book:bill ratios, Semis in Q1 dipped to 0.96:1.00 and Q2 to 0.93:1.00. This must be viewed as a sign of difficult times ahead, particularly in Q3. 5 only Germany is still showing a cumulative ytd growth in bookings with a 5% growth for 2011 year to date compared with last year.
15% 10% 5% 0% Avg F ran ce
12.9%
5% 15% 0% 10%
14.2%
14.3%
10%
20%
5.0%20.4%
20.4%
8.1% 19.3%
20.2%
UK & Eir e
passive Components Graphic P1 covering Passives, for the first time since Q2 2009, showed a negative
Graphic E-1
0.91
Q1 Electromechanical components Emech & other components showed a growth in bookings of 6.8% compared with last year. However, the % growth has declined for the last five quarters dropping from 33% growth in Q2 10 to 25% in Q3, 16% in Q4 and 15% in Q1 2011. It is, however, still a growth!!
Italy N o rd ic Ger m an y
17.6%
17.6%
Bookings for
1st Qtr. 2011 Total Components YTD ratio ofTrend book: bill Billings 0.97:1.00
Gr aph ic T -4
G r a ph i c T -2
Cu mu la tive sa les o f Ele ctro nic co mp on en ts via d istrib utio n b y cou n tr y fo r cu rre nt ye ar to da te com pa re d wi th sam e p er iod pr ior ye a r
INTERNATIONAL ELECTRONICS SUPPLIERS
10.2%
25%
10.8% 21.0%
10.5%
with Germany again showing the only year to date growth of bookings over last year with plus 7.8%.
32.2% 26.4%
1st Qtr. 2011 BOOKING TREND Q1 2011 TOTAL COmpONENTSTo tal C om p o n en ts Bo o kin g
16.6%
26.2%
15%
14.1%
27.1%
30%
25.2% 16.0%
20%
32.2%
Cu mu la tive sa les o f Ele ctro nic co mp on en ts via d istrib utio n b y cou n tr y fo r cu rre nt ye ar to da te com pa re d wi th sam e p er iod pr ior ye a r D istrib u ti on o rd e rs for E le ctron ic co m po n en ts by co un try com pa rin g Q 4 2 0 10 w ith p rio r qu a rter (Q /Q 1) an d sa m e q u ar te r p rio r yea r (Q /Q Y-1 ) 35%
Graphic T2
INTERNATIONAL ELECTRONICS SUPPLIERS
Q1
Q / Q -1 Q2 Q / Q Y -1 FORTRONIC Consorzio
electronics
f o r u m
G r aph ic T -1
-11.8%
Consorzio di attivit e servizi 2nd Qtr. 2011 Total C omponents Booking, B illing & B ook:bill -1 0 % per Associazioni ratio 0% Avg F ran ce UK & Eir e Italy N o rd ic Ger m an y e gruppi dimprese To tal d istrib utio n e le ctron ic co mpo n en ts bo oki ng , b ill ing an d Bo ok:b ill ra tio fo r G e rma ny, Fra nce ,
-2.3% -5 % 5% -3.2% -2.5% -1 5 % A vg Fr a nc e
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No r di c
G er m an y
0.96
0.96
1.16
1.00
Page | 4
1.24
and the Graphic T3 below 1500 shows it in Q2. The change in trend1000 clearly be seen with can the comparisons with the same quarter prior year showing a 500 worsening trend. The Graphic T2 (the shows the 0 picture in QQ1 Q 4 Q 1-09 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 and the showing 3 Q2 below it) cover bookings
k
1.09 0.98
trends comparing current Billing 1.00 quarter with the last quarter 0.90 Boo king (Q/Q-1) and the same quarter 0.80 last year ( Q/QY-1). B2 B 0.70 The shape of this graphic, 0.60 with the current quarter mostly 0.50 below the line indicates the 0.40 Q 1-10 worsening 4booking trends in Q2 Q3 Q Q 1-11 Q 2-11 each country.
0.95
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1.08
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1.11
2000 www.ideaelectronics.com
1.15
2nd Qtr 2011 Emech components Booking, Billing & Book:bill ratio Q2 2011 E-mECh BOOKING, BILLING & BOOK-BILL RATIO Graphic E1
Emech bookings, billings & Book:bill ratio for Germany, France, Italy, UK, Sweden, Norway, Denmark & Finland
400 350 300 1.11 1.09 1.09 1.07 1.06 250 1.02 1.03 1.10 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10
h ic T -2
Q2 2011 TOTAL 2nd Qtr. 2011 Total Com ponents B ooking COmpONENTS BOOKING TREND
Trend
Graphic T2
D istrib u ti on o rd e rs for E le ctron ic co m po n en ts by co un try com pa rin g Q 4 2 0 10 w ith p rio r qu a rter (Q /Q 1) an d sa m e q u ar te r p rio r yea r (Q /Q Y-1 )
5%
0.8%
0%
-1.7% -5.4%
Billing Booking
Percent change
-5%
-6.5% -6.2% -7.0%
1.01
1.01
1.01
1.02
Q / Q -1
0.97
-6.9%
FORTRONIC
electronics f o r u m
-9.2%
B2B
-10%
FORTRONIC
electronics f o r u m
Q / Q Y -1
-12.0%
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-15%
-13.0%
-12.0%
enjoy
-20%
-23.0%
Q3
Q4
Q1-09
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-10
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1-11 Q2-11
No r di c
G er m an y
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Distribution orders for electromechanical components through distribution split by country comparing Q2 2010 with the prior quarter ( Q/Q-1) and with the same quarter prior year ( Q/QY24.2% 30% 25%
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III
1)
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n India, the defence and aerospace sectors are growing at an unprecedented rate and emerging as key participants in the Asia Pacific region. united States and European aerospace companies are now recognizing India as a critical market as well as a potential manufacturing partner. India is becoming one of the largest military spenders in the world and catching worldwide attention, with the third-largest Consorzio defense procurement budget in di attivit e servizi Asia. per Associazioni
e gruppi dimprese The key drivers of Indian aerospace and defence industry are high domestic demand, offset policy, cost advantages, talent base and leveraging IT competitiveness. There are challenges too, such as infrastructure, customs clearances, complex tax laws, certifications, quality assurance, setting up measures like supply chain management, security and various legislations etc. (Source: Deloitte. com).
6840 Crores in 2008-09 and is estimated at over Rs 7500 Crores during 2009-10. Some industry estimates put this figure even higher at about Rs 9000 Crores ! This growth is fuelled by the expanding budgetary allocation for defence sector which grew by 12% from Rs.147,344 Crores in 2010-11 to Rs.164,415 in 2011-12. of this, Capital expenditure, which mostly caters for modernisation requirements, accounts for Rs.69,199 crores. Deloitte-CII report says that Indias current defence expenditure will rise to an estimated $42 billion by 2015. The capital expenditure on new weapons platforms will rise from the current $13.04 billion to $19.2 billion in 2015. The total defence budget accounts for about 13.29% of the total Central Government expenditure. As per the projected estimates, India is likely to spend nearly uSD 100 billion on military procurement during the current five year plan (2007-12) and uSD 120 billion in the next plan period (2012-17), the latter coinciding with the last phase of Indias ambitious military modernization plan. This works out to a massive uS$ 22 billion per annum (Rs 99,000 crores per annum) over the 10 year period ! By simplistic but robust logic, at 10 jobs for every Rs 1 Crore, such requirements have the potential to create almost 1 million jobs annually. As per reports from Stockholm International peace Research Institute (SIpRI), the most
credible monitor of the international arms market, India continues to import rather than build its defence equipment.
Naval acquisitions
will have greater degree of indigenisation
by Indian companies of which 25% are components and subassemblies. If the target of 70% local content is to be achieved by 2015, the Indian industry needs to double in size, a huge challenge, but also a huge opportunity.
India is likely to spend USD 100 billion on military procurement (from 2007 to 2012)
Today the Strategic Electronics sector presents an opportunity which the Indian industry cannot overlook. The production of strategic electronics in India has been growing steadily since 200708 from Rs 5700 Crores to Rs
From 2005-2009, Indias annual arms imports doubled from $1.04 bn in 2005; $1.25 bn in 2006; $2.2 bn in 2007; $1.8 bn in 2008 and $2.1 billion in 2009. This is an unfortunate situation as we have not been able to utilize the opportunity provided by the defence sector for our own benefit. In contrast, Chinas dependence on arms imports has been decreasing and its imports declined from uS$ 3.5 Billion in 2005 to a mere 0.6 Billion in 2009. India currently procures approximately 70 percent of it equipment needs from abroad, but the Governments aim is to reverse this balance and manufacture 70 percent or more of its defence equipment needs in India. About 30% of the requirement is supplied
IV
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the purchase mechanism. The scope of the offset policy guidelines has been expanded to include civil aerospace, internal security and training within the ambit of eligible products and services for discharging offset obligations. With 40 per cent of the allocation reserved for capital acquisition, this offers an immense growth opportunity for domestic electronics manufacturers serving defence. There is a realisation that the acquisition model of building weaponry in India, through Transfer of Technology (ToT), has failed to generate indigenization and has kept us dependent on foreign companies. once we invest in R&D and design our own equipment, this dependence will be overcome. This should also save us precious resources and get more for our money. For the first time in India, a Defence production policy has been announced and the same is effective from 1st January, 2011. The objectives of the Policy are to achieve substantive self reliance in the design, development and production of equipment/ weapon systems/ platforms required for defence in as early a time frame as possible. The policy also creates conditions conducive for the private industry to take an active role in this endeavor and to enhance potential of SMEs in indigenization.
model of building weaponry in India, through Transfer of Technology, has failed to generate indigenization
This policy is very encouraging for domestic industry as it intends to reduce dependence on foreign weapons. The MoD Secretary for Defence Production, R K Singh, has told media that the countrys first-ever Defence Production Policy mandates that weaponry and military systems will be identified several years into the future, to allow Indian companies the time needed to develop and manufacture them. The identified systems will be allocated to specific Indian defence companies as development projects. The MoD will lay down clear time targets and provide 80 per cent of the cost that will be incurred.
The acquisition
This policy when implemented could make a significant impact on encouraging local manufacturing for defence sector. It is also recommended that India should gradually increase the local content requirement from 30% to 40% and possibly to 50% in the next few years. There is also a need for a clear policy on Intellectual Property Rights for defence equipment and technologies, i.e. how they would be transferred to the Indian entity, the time period required, royalties payable, etc. Ideally IPRs should vest with the Indian company.
Stop preSS!
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For the last 20 years the IDEA News has been supported by the Trade Associations across the World but increasing costs have led us to offering a single sponsorship for each of our issues. The sponsor will have their name on every page as a sponsor together with their company logo. They will also have a quarter page allocated for advertising. In 2012 there will only be one sponsor per issue. Just to remind you, the IDEA News is circulated to over 4000 named individuals in over 3000 electronics companies in 10 major countries across the Consorzio World.
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(unmanned Aerial Vehicles) and 300 helicopters for Army Aviation. Naval acquisitions are likely to have greater degree of indigenisation than the other services with foreign shipbuilders having potential to modernize Indian shipyards to enable them to produce large, advanced battleships. By 2022, the Indian Navy plans to have a 160-plus ship Navy, including three aircraft carriers, 60 major combatants (including submarines) and about 400 aircraft of different types. Indias Coast Guard too is highly short of its requirements and plans
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to double its equipment in the next few years. Its current fleet of 76 ships and 45 aircraft is likely to be ramped up in five years to 217 ships and 74 aircraft. Some INTERNATIONAL ELECTRONICS 70 of these new ships would be SUPPLIERS large vessels. Current deals in the pipeline include 7 Scorpene Submarines (uS$ 3.5 Billion), 12 Stealth Frigates (uS$ 7.6 Billion) and 16 Multi Role Helicopters (uS$ 1.0 Billion). India is struggling and needs to indigenise aerospace production which has been historically dependent upon Russia and the IAF is looking to diversify its vendor base for combat and transport aircraft. (Source: Business Standard) demand for passenger air travel and freight and to replace ageing fleets with new more fuel-efficient aircraft. on similar lines as Airbus, Boeing expects a demand of between 900 to 1,000 commercial aircraft worth uSD100 billion approximately in the next 20 years. This also suggests that a significant portion of business opportunity could accrue to India, due to the associated offsets. There is also a strong feeling among Indian private companies that defence policies are in favour of DPSus, which have been the main beneficiaries so far. It is important that with the new focus on R&D rather than Transfer of Technology, both DPSus as well as private players get equal opportunity and can work in cooperation rather than in confrontation. This is important because the strengths of the private sector can complement those of DPSus and add great value for the country. Similarly, another area which needs attention is the need to address the capability and the capacity to meet certification and quality assurance requirements of existing laboratories. The procedure for obtaining the requisite approvals is not only cumbersome but the lack of sufficient capacity results in long lead times. It is well known that there is no laboratory for EmC/ EmI Testing in North India and those of DPSus and SAmEER in Chennai are heavily overburdened. This causes delays and avoidable loss to the industry. overall, the opportunities for private participation in defence and civil aviation procurements are immense.
All segments within aerospace are showing tremendous growth, including civil aviation, military aviation and Space research: CIvIL AvIATION - In 2007 and 2008, India assumed the ninth position in the worlds civil aviation market, an increase from twelfth place in 2006. Indias air passenger travel has been growing at almost 25% a year. According to Government estimates, growth in this sector will outpace the global average until 2025. mILITARY AvIATION Secondary research indicates that India will spend about uSD35 billion on military aviation over the next 20 years because most of its existing fleet needs to be replaced. Deals in the pipeline include 197 light utility Helicopters valued at uS$ 3 Billion and 127 Multi Mission Role Combat Aircrafts (MMRCA) valued at uS$ 10 Billion. In addition there are ambitious plans to add Transport Aircraft and Heavy lift Helicopters which are currently in the news SpACE - India is one of the six countries in the world that undertakes Space launches. The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) under the Department of Space, Government of India, implements the Indian space programme involving the
Consorzio The defense offset policy has been di attivit e servizi under implementation since 2006 per Associazioni and a formal civil offset policy is e gruppi dimprese also expected to follow shortly. The total spending in the next 5 years is expected to be between uSD25 billion (assuming uniform demand) for commercial aircrafts and USD100 billion as defense expenditure. out of the defense expenditure, approximately 15-20 percent (uSD15-20 billion) is expected to be spent on military aircraft. Assuming an offset of 30 percent for the civil sector too, the total offset opportunity for the aerospace sector is valued to be at least USD10-15 billion. As Indian manufacturing capabilities mature over the years, it is expected to capture a large share of this opportunity.
development and operation of satellites, launch vehicles and ground systems, for carrying out research and applications related to communications, remote sensing, meteorology and space sciences. Indias 200809 budget allocated a 16 percent increase in science spending from the previous year. The 200809 budget also includes an increase in funds for manned space missions. The total science budget is over uSD6 billion, compared with the previous years budget of uSD5 billion.
The Indian aerospace industry is one of the fastest-growing aerospace markets in the world with airlines, corporates and HNIs placing orders for an increased number of aircraft. The growth of this industry has attracted global aerospace majors to India.
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Risk mitigation: what did the electronic industry learn, what role for Distribution?
INTERNATIONAL ELECTRONICS SUPPLIERS
ver the past 2 years our industry supply chain had to face more extraordinary events than over the past 30 years. We had been used to a few years overproduction, the so called buyers market, followed by an equivalent period of supply constraint the sellers market.
So whats the future from here, since the unpredictable happened a few time the last 2 years? As lead time decrease or stabilize, as the industry aftermath of the Japanese crises is better understood, some go back the previous behavior, compromising security for cost saving going back to the previous logic and walking inevitably toward the next, some would say, industry cycle, Id say inevitable disaster. outsourcing the hot potatoes in a VMI (Vendor Managed Inventory) agreement. This time a series of events changed the script that was written in advance. First the high tech industry recovery came sooner than expected defeated all prognoses biding on a W or a square root shape. account not only Environment and cost aspect but also customer service. Along the way of this extraordinary market recovery, natural disaster stressed further stretched supply chains sending some clear signals and wake up calls. The Icelandic Volcano with the unpronounceable name not only produced pretty pictures it put on hold for over a week air traffic on most of Europe. Many companies discovered the over dependency on expensive fast air transport and the little to no alternative they had with suppliers ten thousand miles away.
2 years our industry supply chain had to face more extraordinary events than over the past 30 years
Focus was moving from ppv (purchase price variance) to component allocation. In the script between the various actors, buyers and sellers played the role of the circumstance, maximizing the opportunity with the certitude that time will come when the tide will turn. Supply Chain objective was more outsourcing cost than building resilience and sustainability. When the economy and market crashed in 2008, oEM and EMS providers went on the cyclical cost crushing mission where PPV, low cost labor rule. Supply chain mission was to create the conditions of mobility, stretching transport time and cost while decreasing inventory, or more appropriately,
De risking Supply Chain should be the N1 ambition of all companies, it requires continuity in strategy and partnership. It needs to include all actors from component manufacturers to distributors and to end customers. It puts extended S&oP right in the center of every conversation and when it includes inventory holding, its not an accident or a compensation for inefficient processes, its a forward thinking conscious investment to support better flexibility and responsiveness and overall improve customer experience. How distributors will position themselves as an solution enabler and credible partner to address risk management challenges will have a key impact on their future.
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Sustainability
The Japanese tsunami, beyond the human tragedy, highlighted the dependence of our industry over a small number of actors where the second and third tier suppliers were taking vital importance in the supply chain sustainability.
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eID NewS
DIStrIBUtIoN TTI has announced the INTERNATIONAL ELECTRONICS appintment of Jamie Furness SUPPLIERS to the position of general Manager for uK, Ireland and South Africa.
FCI, a supplier of connectors and interconnect systems, has entered into an agreement with Zahavi Technologies, an electronic sales company of electromechanical components in Israel. Arrow Electronics reported first quarter 2011 net income of 136.5 million dollars on sales of 5.22 billion dollars. Global components sales increased of 21% year over year. Future Electronics and ADD Consorzio Semiconductor have extended theirdi attivit e servizi agreement for distribution of per Associazioni ADDs powerline communication e to global franchise. SoCs gruppi dimprese mouser Electronics and Luminus Devices announced a global distribution agreement enabling Mouser to bring luminuslEDs quickly to lighting design engineers and buyers around the world. Avnet Abacus is to support its sister companies EBv Elektronik, Silica, Avnet memec and Avnet Embedded at the recently-announced Design Strategies for ARm Systems seminar program which will play in 16 cities across Europe in may and in june. Digi-Key announced the availability of electronic components from parallax Semiconductor. Gennum has added Leading Light Technologies (L2Tek) as a design rep and distributor for its complete line of analog and mixed signal ICs in the uK, ireland and Norway.
Source: Electronics Industry Digest
European formalities and regulations. pictorial provides an overview of product groups and generally applicable formalities, while mandatory Data reveals any other required documentation.
product may only be distributed and operated in the Eu if it complies with the provisions of all Eu directives applicable to the product. The sheer mass of what is currently over 30 EU directives makes keeping track a somewhat hard job. It is specifically in this field that the FBDi (Fachverband der Bauelemente Distribution) comes into play with new assistants specifically designed for use in the distribution industry - namely Pictorialand Mandatory Data for managing
Data, it is important to limit the data to a minimum so that the requirements remain clear and realistic
Both sets of information have been designed for use in distribution and limit themselves to the information that is actually required. These are not
static documents; rather, the FBDi keeps them constantly up-to-date to reflect the everchanging regulations. Because these assistants aim to provide assistance with respect to international cooperation, they are provided in English. In order to ensure that the assistants provide as secure a legal basis as possible in respect of the regulations, plans are underway to also have these documents discussed with the various competent market watchdog authorities in several European countries.
The FBDi is currently working under the auspices of Avnet to develop further assistants
Steps required for the assessment of the conformity of products in terms of environment and CE (general overview)
I.#Denition of
actor's role
Ib Who#is# manufacturer
So8ware
Battery / accumulator
Component#(+#Ba>ery)
Electrical#Device,#EEE#(+# ba>ery)
CustomerGspecic# product
III.#CE# concernment
IV.#Analysis of
RoHS requirements
V.#Additional
substance regulations
POPGdirecHve
Waste#direcHve
Ba>eryGdirecHve
VI. REACh##product#informaHon Restriction of substances as per annex XVII Information of SVHC 'list of candidates'
Ba>eries#&#accumulators
Packaging#materials
VIII.#Requirements
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in order to provide distribution and the entire supply chain of the electronics industry with a complete modular package. categorisation system with respect to e.g. REACH, RoHS, CE, ADR/IATA and other ordinances of relevance to the product type. In practice, the assistants are used as follows: the user consults Pictorial in order to gain an initial overview of the required product categorisation and the formalities that apply as a result.
the goal of improving the provision and flow of information along the supply chain
FBDi is pursuing
In order to determine which other information and documentation is required, the user then has the more detailed Mandatory Data at his disposal. With the Mandatory Data, it is also important to limit the data to a minimum so that the requirements remain clear and realistic, realisable for manufacturers on other continents. Should users need additional assistance in the handling of the applicable Eu formalities, the guidelines also contain further help specifically tailored to the distribution industry. In this way, FBDi is pursuing the goal of improving the provision and flow of information along the supply chain. When it comes to the applicable Eu regulations, these new measures enable all participants in the supply chain to speak the same language when determining which data is necessary and required to meet statutory requirements for each product irrespective of the form in which it is transmitted. This is of enormous assistance to small and medium-sized companies in particular.
fter a history of two separate organisations for the distributors and the manufacturers, there was a desire to meet on common ground. Last year we merged the two associations into one. The Swedish Electronics Trade Association now organises a wider spectrum of the value chain; constructors/ designers, consultants, manufacturers, distributors of components, test & measurement, production equipment and embedded technology - you name it, weve got it. When we look back after this first year, we are happy to conclude that we made the right move. What did we do, how did we do it and what did we gain? 1) How: preparation democratic process First of all we prepared well. The project was discusses and continuously confirmed by the members in a process over two years, one step at the time. There was a common understanding on what we wanted to achieve and how we wanted to do it. 2) What - add new value on top We made sure to keep the best bits of the old organisations and added on new value on top. The good bits that we wanted to keep, was the vertical Sections. The members still want to meet colleagues within the same specific line of business, so we have six different sections with separate meetings. We have added on horizontal
working groups and task forces, with special focus on e.g. EUDirectives and our new trade show Scandinavian Electronics Event - S.E.E. We also have spiced it up with more general meeting, seminars, visits and studies at different sites Consorzio and companies. The view can be di attivit e servizi per Associazioni broader when more perspectives e gruppi are included. dimprese 3) Why: ambitions and goals The motives behind this merger were several, but in short: the more the merrier! More business - finding undone business with known and new partners in the value chain, with the end consumer in focus. More information - the more who share the better. More impact - representing the industry with a stronger voice. The urge of more collaboration is probably not specific for Sweden or for the electronic industry. Its more of a general trend and business terms how to keep the competitive edge on a global market. Much is to be gained by embracing the perspective of being business partners in the same boat rather that on opposite sides of the table.
mANDATORY DATA
Mandatory Data expands upon the Pictorial, creating a link to the required information and query criteria with respect to the relevant regulations. It contains a list of necessary information for each product
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Industry Metrics, the Book to Bill Ratio Why is the electronic industry interested in this?
by Adam Fletcher Chairman of IDEA and ECSN
www.ecsn-uk.org
ll organisations use a wide range of metrics to assist their management and investors to benchmark their Consorzio performance within their market di attivit e servizi and so guide decision making. per Associazioni let me start by defining some e gruppi dimprese of the most common metric terms used and the value of their application.
The remaining bookings value is added as a proportion in each future month until it is consumed.
BILLINGS
Billings is defined as net sales invoiced less credits - the value of goods sold to customers, minus any credits that may have been due within the period. often shown in reports as the B2B, the Book to Bill Ratio is a rather crude but effective guide to both customer
BOOKINGS
Bookings is the value of new customer sales orders entered by an organisation in a defined period, minus any cancellations or changes. Well managed organisations will have a defined policy on order entry.
demand and the ability of supplying organisations to meet it. Its very easy to calculate: Simply divide the Bookings figure by Billings figure. i.e. Bookings = 100 Billings = 96 gives a B2B of 1.04:1.
In a Utopian
BACKLOG
The number between unity and any other value is referred to as the Backlog, which is said to be growing if the B2B is positive or declining when it is negative.
Despite its
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metric does provide some very valuable data and plotted over time, provides a significant insight into the market. second quarter of 2011, an unwelcome pattern that that is likely to be mirrored by the other afdec product groups. an average. The really useful part is the ability it provides to compare the way a business sector or organisation is deviating from the average. Its great news and happy days when youre outperforming the average but if youre underperforming and thereby eroding Backlog it should be an urgent call to action Note: Additional information about The Electronic Components Supply Network and afdec INTERNATIONAL ELECTRONICS may be found at the following SUPPLIERS website: www.ecsn-uk.org with regular industry updates available to all on the Breaking News pages.
FINAL ThOUGhTS...
Despite its crudity, the B2B ratio is a surprisingly accurate guide to the balance of supply and demand but it is only
A negative B2B
Consorzio di attivit e servizi per Associazioni e gruppi dimprese
The graph shows a steady improvement in the B2B from April 2009 with an average B2B of 1.11:1 for the second half of the year. This was maintained for the first half of 2010 suggesting that further growth could be expected. However in the third quarter of 2010 the ratios declined slightly followed by a further decline in the fourth quarter but overall remained just above unity. The use of a second order polynomial trend line (Poly.) to smooth the data, clearly shows that afdecs overall B2B peaked in March 2010. The ratio for semiconductors (Semi Ind) generally considered to be a lead market indicator dropped to 0.99:1 in october 10, to 0.96:1 in December 10, 1.05:1 in January 11, declining to 0.98:1 in February 11 and 0.95:1 in March 11, which suggests a decline in customer demand into the
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A decade of Upheaval
INTERNATIONAL ELECTRONICS SUPPLIERS
Table 1
% Change 10.6% 10.0% 10.3%
World connector sales were $12,051 million in 2Q11, up 10.0% over 1Q10. Through the first six months of 2011, world connector sales were $23,403 million, up +10.3% over the first half of 2010.
largest connector companies in the first half of 2011. Note: TE is organic growth without ADC acquisition or the effect of currency fluxuations.
six months of 2011, world connector sales were $23,403 million, up +10.3% over the first half of 2010
Consorzio The Table 1 shows connector di quarter. sales by attivit e servizi per +10.3% in Growth of Associazioni the first e gruppi dimprese half is excellent performance, especially considering the industry just finished its best year ever, growing +28.4% in 2010. However, orders in the first half were up only +4.3%, meaning we are eroding order backlog.
first half were up only +4.3%, meaning we are eroding order backlog
The Graph 1 displays sales performance since 1Q08 for the connector industry and the three largest connector companies. You will note the industry has achieved growth for seven consecutive quarters beginning in 4Q09. However, the industry growth rate has declined in the last five quarters. TE and molex has also experienced five consecutive quarters of lower year over year increases in sales growth with 2Q11 up only single digits (TE = 5.0%; Molex = 7.8%). Amphenol also has experienced a declining sales growth rate in the past three quarters, but still achieved double digit growth in 2Q11 (15.0%).
Graphic 1
Orders in the
CONNECTORS - BIG 3 FIRST hALF SALES (in % change year over year)
Company TE Molex Amphenol Industry 1Q11 7.0% 15.6% 22.0% 10.6% 2Q11 5.0% 7.8% 15.0% 10.0%
Table 2
Table 3
industry growth of +4.9%. If we achieved a modest +5.0% year over year growth in the second half, the industry would achieve full year growth of +7.5%. The Bishop full year forecast is for growth in 2011 of +8.5%. Considering orders are up only +4.3% in the first half of 2011, slowing u.S. GPD, debt problems in Greece and other European countries, the problems in Japan, and the cooling off of China, our forecast is probably optimistic. Assuming no radical change in world economies, we believe it is more reasonable to plan on full year 2011 growth in the +5.0% to +7.0% range. The third quarter of 2011 will most likely be flat to slightly down, but if we have a strong 4Q11, sales results for the full year could be better than growth of =5.0% to +7.0%.
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The first major new member benefit from the recent formation of the Electronic Components Industry Association (ECIA) is the creation of an inventory search website. While there are several such websites on the Internet, this is the first website that is industry-owned and managed. That means that participant data is not subject to the uncertainties about the website owners business models, direction, data integrity and data safety. Check it out at www.eciaauthorized.com
The website provides a number of benefits for ECIA members. For all members, it furthers the mission of the association to promote and improve the business environment for the authorized sale of electronic components. It is a key component in the industrys efforts to combat counterfeit parts by providing customers with a place to find authorized product. The benefits for distributor members are: Through July 30, it is free to participate during 2011. Beginning July 1, the annual cost of participation is $2,500; Search results are listed randomly, so search results are not influenced by ads or site sponsorship; The association subsidies part of the cost of on-boarding the data; All selling is done through the distributors website. The site does not compete with its participants by offering its own inventory; The cost of participating is significantly lower than other sites since the service is provided as a member service and not as a profit center. The benefits for manufacturer members are: The website provides a convenient one-stop location to direct buyers to find available inventory from the companys authorized distributors; It ensures that customers can find product that meets the
The benefit for field sales representatives is the website provides a convenient location to find available inventory for a customer, particularly when calling on a customer who is ready to make a purchase. The cost of operating and marketing the website will initially be supported through a combination of participant fees and sponsorships. Advertising may be an option down the road, but it will not affect the search results. Sponsors will be featured on the home page and on website promotional material, but sponsorship will not alter the randomness of the search results.
he Assodel Award is the recognition that Assodel (the Italian association of electronic distribution) assigns every year to the best electronic manufacturers. At its nineth event, the presentation of the 2011 Awards took place within the traditional Assodel Gala dinner in Milan on the 17th June.
More than 450 people (managing directors, sales directors and Consorzio marketing managers) have taken di attivit e servizi part in the event that, once per Associazioni again, gruppi dimprese gather e has been able to the top players of the electronic distribution and supplier world. Born in the uSA and introduced in Italy in 2003, the Distribution Award has decades of tradition and is a prestigious prize for the electronic industry. The awards have been handed over by Domenico Caserta, Assodel President, and Silvio Baronchelli, IDEA President, to the following suppliers for each of the eight product categories: Infineon Technologies Semiconductors Murata - Passives FCI - Electronics Division Connectors Panasonic Electric Works Electromechanicals Seoul Semiconductor lEDs Hitachi Displays - Displays Power-One - Power NXP Semiconductors RF & Wireless Yokogawa - Instrumentation The special career award was given to Angelo Di Benedetto.
As a member benefit, the ECIA inventory search website is open to ECIA distributor members only. This site is limited to authorized inventory only. Which means, customers looking to avoid the gray market and counterfeit electronic components may turn to the ECIA search site which only lists inventory that is genuine and backed by manufacturer warranty.
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real success for the first Fortronic uK event supported by IDEA! The uKs first free one day Fortronic technical forum was specifically dedicated to wireless technology and took place on 28th June 2011 at the williams F1 Conference Centre near oxford. This inaugural event was oversubscribed by both sponsor and attendees, it not only attracted in more than 120 designers and engineers Consorzio from a broad market base who, di attivit e servizi by the per Associazioni way, were required to register gruppi dimprese with e and had to meet a selection criteria but all the sponsorship slots were taken! A few of the comments by the sponsors tell the story!
the UKs first one day free technical forum specifically dedicated to wireless
In partnership with
FortroNIC ForUM
wIreLeSS
A very well organised day in a superb location; an excellent quality of delegate; the agenda provided a good range of topics, presented from specialists to specialists which
stimulated a lot of interest for angliaM2M and our partners; will be pleased to sponsor further Fortronic events. John Bowman - Marketing
Director (Semiconductors)Anglia M2M Excellent Day. All attendees showed a keen interest in our products. Found it to be a very productive day and we will be interested in any future events Gary Young - Director -MSC Gleichmann uK ltd.
This inaugural
My feedback to you is that it was an excellent event, there were many discussions in the room from engineer to engineer and that is what this country needs. Well done. Ing Dr Simon Sherratt - Senior lecturer Electronic Engineering university of Reading To add to the excitement during
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Fortronic
The Fortronic Technical Forum concept has been proven over 5 years of events in Italy and is supported by IDEA, an International association founded in 1987 with the express intent to spread good practice within the global electronic component industry. The Fortronic Technical Forums have been extended Internationally in 2010 to Turkey & Tunisia and in June 2011 the first event was held in the uK. why Fortronic Forum 1. QUaLItY Fortronic guarantees the quality of the contents of the conferences and the organization of the whole event. 2. teCHnICaL dIreCtor An expert of the sector who coordinates the conferences and the speakers. 3. SHare WItH US A program of cooperation with the sponsors of the event to plan, promote, communicate, verify the promotion of the event. 4. edUCatIonaL A training seminar to transfer design competences to the attending technicians.
At least three
Due to the outstanding success of the 2011 RF & Wireless Forum the next Wireless Forum will take place on Tuesday 26 June 2012, again at the Williams F1 Conference Centre. Sponsors for this event are reserving their places now!. Two additional Fortronic Forums are taking place at the Williams F1 Conference Centre next year; lED & lighting will take place on Tuesday 17 April 2012
with Power Management and Control scheduled for Tuesday october 23 2012. For further information on programme content and sponsorship packages please contact: Chris osborn Fortronic uK Director +44 (0)7824444612 or email chris@motiv8uk.com Further information can be found at www.fortronicuk.com
IDeA NewSLetter
INTERNATIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRONICS ASSOCIATION EDIToR IN ChIEf: Gary Kibblewhite EDIToRS: Adam fletcher (UK); Robin Gray (USA); Silvio Baronchelli and franco Musiari (Italy); Lena Norder (Svezia); Wolfram Ziehfuss (Germany); Amy Wang (China); PUBLIShER: Silvio Baronchelli
INTERNATIoNAL PRoMoTIoN By: CoNSoRTIUM ELETTRIMPEX
PUBLIShED By: Tecnoimprese Scarl - Via C. flaminio, 19 - 20134 Milan - Italy
PRINTED By: Servizi Tipografici Carlo Colombo - Rome
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