Convergence

A Universal Term with

Specific Applications
 What is Convergence?
• One of the most overused terms in the
communications business.
• Everybody wants it, but nobody is very clear
about what it is.
• Telco, CATV, Satellite, Wireless, Cellphone all
talk about convergence, which one is right? Could
they all be right?
• At this point convergence is a ubiquitous term that
could easily apply to any of them.
 Most basic definition
• Voice, video and data services, also known
as the “triple play” all combined into one
delivered mechanism or technology.
• Also known as the promise of broadband,
but is not exclusive to broadband.
• We need to identify in some detail what
services can and will be provided over what
technology.
 Technology Convergence
• The first tenant of Convergence is the delivery mechanism.
• Today there clearly are convergence plays being made in many
technologies
– FTTH fiber to the home
– Twisted pair delivery
– Coax delivery
– Wireless delivery
– Misc. other technologies, powerline, PTP Wireless Fiber
• Which technology is best will depend on the geographic region,
population density, and services to be covered.
• More is always better…more data bandwidth means more
opportunities.
 More is not just better
All Video on Demand
Unicast per Subscriber

100 High Definition

Video on Demand
90
Video
80
Megabits per Second

Blogs

70
per Subscriber

Podcasting
Online-
60 Games

50 Video
Mail
40 Video on
Demand
30 Digital
Photos
20 VoIP
Web Digital Music
10 Browsing Napster
E-Mail
0
 Fiber Optic Transport
• Fiber rich environments are the most costly per
user and per service.
• Most future proof, but future proof is not revenue
generating.
• Currently plays a role in all the technologies, but
mostly as a “backbone technology”
• Is the most reliable infrastructure, and the highest
capacity. Ideally suited to network segmentation.
• Fiber’s role is changing from one that transports
services in their native format to one that
transports data.
 Fiber Can Do It All
Commercial Residential

6/8 MHz 6/8 MHz

CBR Voice T1/E1 Data Video CBR Video Digital Analog Web CBR
Services Services Conferencing On Demand Television Television Gaming Surfing Telephone
 Twisted Pair Delivery
• Most common delivery method in the world
• Densest deployed technology
• At the simplest is voice and dial up data
• At the best is VDSL2 with max speed of
100 MB/s, but is fixed in provisioning
between video, voice and data.
• Still the lowest data rate per line
• Heavily distance dependant
 Twisted Pair Options
Family ITU Name Ratified Maximum
Speed capabilities
ADSL G.992.1 G.dmt 1999 7 Mbps down, 800 kbps
up
ADSL2 G.992.3 G.dmt.bis 2002 8 Mb/s down, 1 Mbps
up
ADSL2plus G.992.5 ADSL2plus 2003 24 Mbps down, 1 Mbps
up
ADSL2-RE G.992.3 Reach Extended 2003 8 Mbps down
1 Mbps up
SHDSL G.991.2 G.SHDSL 2001 5.6 Mbps up/down

VDSL G.993.1 Very-high-data-rate 2004 55 Mbps down, 15

DSL Mbps up
VDSL2 G.993.2 Very-high-data-rate 2005 100 Mbps up/down
DSL 2
 Coax Delivery
• More correctly Hybrid Fiber Coax network
• Delivers the most flexible solution
• Highly configurable
• Switched digital offers the highest data rates and number
of services.
• There is currently 5.1Gb/s available in an 870MHz system.
• Segmentation is widely configurable.
• Can be limited by the deployment of “backbone”
• Not future proof, but future migratable easily convertible
as the fiber future comes further.
 Data Rate per 6 MHz
DOCSIS Key Features Benefits/
Services
DOCSIS 2.0 • Mandatory S- • Symmetric services
CDMA/ TDMA • Peer-to-peer
(30 Mbps u/s)
• Best of DOCSIS • Business-to-business
(20 T1 capacity)
DOCSIS 1.1 • QoS • Tiered service
(10 Mbps u/s) • Pre-EQ • Double u/s capacity
• Operations • Lower op’s costs
• Security • Better than competitor
DOCSIS 1.0 • Spec’d for retail • High speed data
(5 Mbps u/s) • Standard spec • Internet access
 Wireless Delivery
• Welcome to the future
• It can serve the two extreems well
– Low data rate over massive numbers of subscribers
– High data rate over one or very few subscribers
• Fixed wireless in high end applications
• Mobile Wireless, 3G, Wi-Fi, even Wi-Max
• Drawbacks
– High data rates over many subscribers requires large
bandwidth which can cost billions in licensing, if
available at all $$$$
– Latency-problem to be overcome
 Infrastructure Battle
• Bandwidth vs Density
– More frequency available results in more “per user data”
– Low density, ideally 1:1 results in more “per user data”
– Look for future technologies to allow wider bandwidth
over existing infrastructure
• 1GHz or 3GHz over HFC
• DWDM over FTTH and Deep Fiber
– Improved compression could result in better data rates,
don’t look for Moore's law to help with this one.
– Fiber solves all the problems, except for expense.
– This battle is an ongoing evolution in the industry.
 Best positioned technology
• To get to the consumer is HFC.
• It can be scaled, eventually scaled to exclude coax. FTTH.
• The scale and density is driven by “data rate demand”.
• DATA, DATA, DATA
• Safest infrastructure investment today is a cable modem
and CMTS.
– Can serve a system of thousands today, down to tens in
the future.
– Cable modem will always be able to provide data rates
that are sufficient for voice, video, and internet.
– CMTS will eventually become cheaper as density
decreases and volumes increase.
 Halfway there !
• Look at technology – as you can tell the best
technology is dependant on what is there already.
• If you have twisted pair to the customers, but plan
a fiber deployment, not going to be successful
• Almost any converged technology in use that is
useful today when thinking about convergence
requires a physical connection.
– Wireless is a great dream, but requires just too much
bandwidth at a cost that is exceptional.
• OK so we have a network…
Convergence really comes down
to SERVICES !
• Ever heard of the “quest for the killer app”?
– Order a pizza anyone?
• Video, analog today, digital tomorrow
• Telephone, analog today, digital tomorrow
• Music, Games, Government
• P2P, Podcasting, E-gambling
• Blogging, Created Content, VR
 It is the services that are really
converging
• Even though some technologies are best at data
(HFC), broadcast TV (Wireless/Satellite) and
Telephone (twisted pair). It is unlikely that
technologies will ever fully converge.
• More likely one will become sufficiently good at
providing the other services to take a lead.
• So far HFC has the lead…because it has such a
flexible footprint and deployment position.
• The services are converging around the concept of
flexible data.
 Converged Services
• The clear lines between Voice - Video - Data are becoming
blurred or even disappearing.
• Video phone – ever use Skype?
– By changing the expectations of services in the eyes of the
consumer, the service creators are pre disposing the consumer to
certain technologies.
– Can’t deliver the video call over an analog phone line or over a one
way broadcast technology.
• Interactive TV – American Idol – Weather Channel – even
online shopping.
• SMS Chatrooms - Interesting twist that came early here.
Interactive SMS and TV programming. Otherwise chatting
requires a computer. Innovative to chat with only a cell
phone and a TV.
 Digital Migration to Data
HFC Bandwidth Allocation

700
Analog
600 Broadcast Digital
500 Broadcast
MHz

400
VHSD
300
200 VoIP & HSD Digital On-
100 Dem and
0

Tim e
Upstream
 Just the beginning
• Interactive Shopping – TV - Cell phone Could be
a killer app here.
• IVR Television – talk to your TV or cable box.
How and where driven by state of deployment.
Think of a call center that instead of just talking
you some instruction set, can show you the
instruction set over some dedicated video link.
• Gaming - PC – TV – Video Games another form
of Interactive TV
Look at existing services that are
driving the future into today
• Video On Demand
• Online Gaming
• Video Calling
• Automated Consumer Shopping (groceries)
• Interactive Television
• P2P Applications
• Applications are the driving force behind
convergence.
 Video on Demand
• Probably all going to be video on demand.
• Streaming video and stored video.
• Is it a local technology (PVR) or a central
technology (VOD Server).
• Or is it a combination of the two like P2P
 Online Gaming
• The Xbox and Playstation are not any
longer just for playing game on TV.
• Last models converged voice and video into
the gaming experience.
• Today's models are full entertainment
consoles with the ability to download
movies, act as cable set top boxes, surf the
internet and even record TV shows.
 Video Calling
• Video conferencing used to be just for
corporate boardrooms, now it is for every
living room.
• What is interesting is that this still needs a
killer app. 20 + years after the first video
conference, consumers still do not know if
they want this technology in their living
room or not.
 Automated Consumer Shopping
• Great example of an application driving the
technology.
• Refrigerators have TV’s and computers in them
know so that they can automatically order
groceries.
• First grocery services were very limited and for
the most part not successful, until this technology
made it easier, and more useful.
• Not the only one though, automated top off, e-
billing, online banking are all forms of ACS.
 Interactive Television
• American Idol – vote on the outcome of the
TV show.
• Buy products featured in a TV show, “if
you want a t-shirt like Sylvester Stalone was
wearing send $24.99 to….
• TV shopping services
• Online education services
 Applications are converging
• Forcing technology to advance to allow it
• Wait for an item of tremendous appeal.
– Killer App
– E-mail was not enough to sell interactive TV
• The application may be socially developed
not just software compiled