Thayer Consultancy

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Cambodias Developing Military Ties with China and the United States Carlyle A. Thayer September 20, 2011

[clientnamedeleted] I'mwritingaboutthegrowingnumberofChinaCambodiaandUSCambodiamilitary exercisesandexchanges.ThisisthefirstyeartheUShashostedthe"EllipseCharlie" militaryexerciseinCambodia(whichAustraliaisparticipatingin).BrigadierGeneral Richard Simcock visited the Kingdom late lastmonth and met with the Cambodian MinistryofNationalDefense.Basedonmyresearch,thisisquickincreaseinmilitary exchangesbetweenthetwocountries. At the same time, China is maintaining or possibly increasing it's military exchangeswithCambodia.LastmonthahighlevelChinesedelegationsignedoffon nearly200millioninloanstoCambodiaformilitaryhelicopters.ChinesePresident tobeXiJinpingvisitedtheCambodianMoNDinJunetodiscussgrowingcooperation. ChinahasalsoprovidedCambodiawithmilitarytraining. 1.HowuniqueisthissituationinAsia(ortheworld)?Aretheremanycountriesthat domilitaryexerciseswithboththeUSandChina?IsCambodiaeasilycomparableto thesecountries? ANSWER:ChinasmostrecentDefenceWhitePaperstates,AsofDecember2010, thePLAhasheld44jointmilitaryandtrainingexerciseswithforeigntroops.These exercises are mainly with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation involving Russia andCentralAsia.Chinaisrelativelynewatthis.In2003itconducteditsfirstsearch andrescueoperationwithaforeigncountry,Pakistan.In2007,Chinaconductedits first joint marine training program with a foreign country, Thailand. Also in 2007, Chinaconducteditsfirstlandexerciseswithaforeigncountry,Thailand. China conducts joint military exercises with countries that also exercise with the United States. China conducts land exercises with the armies of India, Pakistan, Singapore, Mongolia, Romania and Thailand. It has lso conducted bilateral and multilateral joint naval exercises with Australia France, India, Japan, New Zealand, Pakistan,Russia,Thailand,theUK,UnitedStates,Vietnamandundertheauspicesof theWesternPacificNavalSymposium. Chinas defencecooperation, other than joint military exercises, is more extensive. Chinas growing relationship with Cambodia is in line with Chinas developing defencetieswithotherSoutheastAsianstates.ButCambodiahasnotyetconducted

2 jointnavalorjointlandexerciseswithChinaasThailandhasdone.Thailandstands outastheregionalexception.Navaljointexercisesaremorecommon. 2.WhatdoesthesituationsayaboutthestrategicimportanceofCambodia? ANSWER: Between 1999 and 2000 China negotiated long term cooperative framework agreements with all ten members of ASEAN. Seven of them contained clauses ondefencecooperation(Brunei,Laos,Malaysia,thePhilippines,Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam). Cambodia was one of the countries that did not include a defence clause. Bilateral relations have developed since then to include defence cooperation.InonerespectChinatriestodealwithallregionalstatesonarelatively equalbasisanddevelopmentoftieswithCambodiafallswithinthiscontext.Chinais also opportunist. When relations between the US and Cambodia soured following the1997coupandlastyearwhenCambodiaexpelledtheUighurbacktoChinaand theU.S.suspendedmilitaryassistance,Beijingsteppedintothevoid.Thirdly,Chinas growing commercial interests in Cambodia have provided it with greater political influenceandthishasbeenleveragedinmilitarytomilitaryrelations.WithHunSen inpowerthemilitaryplaysanimportantroleinCambodiaandChinaisnotadverse to using this as a conduit to influence policy. Finally, there is an element of rivalry withVietnamandChinahasnotbeenshyaboutplayinginVietnamsbackyard. 3.WhatdoesitsayaboutCambodia'spoliticalandmilitarystrategy? ANSWER: Cambodia has always needed to balance its relations with Thailand and Vietnam. After 2001 when Thaksin and his political party took power, Thailand movedclosetoChina.Cambodiariskedbeingisolated,amatterofimportancewhen borderissuesflaredin2008andsubsequently.Cambodiahasalsosoughttoleverage its relations with Beijing to offset Thailand. As a Mekong River downstream state Cambodia stands to loose the most from dam construction in China on the Upper Mekong (as well as downstream). Cambodia thus has material interests in developinggoodtiesincludingmilitarytieswithChina. More fundamentally, Cambodia, like other members of ASEAN and the ASEAN RegionalForum,mustadjusttoChinasriseandgrowingmilitarypower.Developing militarytieswithChinamaybeviewasanormaloutcomeofengagement.Cambodia canenhanceitsnationalsecuritybymaintaininggoodrelationswithitsneighbours andthemajorexternalpowers. In 2012 Cambodia will become Chair of ASEAN and thus exercise a potentially influentialpositionasASEANnegotiatesitsrelationswithChinaincludingtheSouth ChinaSea. It should be noted that Cambodias military relations with the United States have grown markedly in recent years. This has naturally attracted Chinas attention particularlyasCambodiaisalittoralstateontheGulfofThailand.Sihanoukvilleisa portofinteresttoChinaaspartofitssocalledstringofpearls. The Hun Sen government is in a position to leverage its relations with Beijing and Washingtontoenhanceitsnationalsecurity. 4.CouldtheUnitedStates'growinginterestbeareactiontoChina'sgrowingmilitary influenceintheregion?

3 ANSWER: Quite clearly the Obama Administration looked at the diplomatic deficit left by President Bush and decided to reengage with Southeast Asia, both multilaterally via ASEAN and the ASEAN Regional Forum, and bilaterally. Cambodia became an obvious target of opportunity. Hillary Clinton launched the Lower Mekong Initiative and routinely began meeting with the foreign ministers of the LowerMekongstates.TheU.S.wasabletoplayontheirconcernsabouttheimpact of Chinese dam activities and their desire to develop the Greater Mekong Region. The Obama Administration moved to fill the gaps in its bilateral relations with Cambodiaandmilitaryengagementpickedup.PartofUSmotivationwastorecover itsregionalinfluenceandrelatedtothattoofferanalternativetoChina. 5.CouldthemostrecentSouthChinaSeaproblemhaveexpeditedgrowingUSand Chineseinterests? ANSWER: Chinas challenge to US primacy has caused the US to reconfirm its engagement to Southeast Asia. So yes the China factor accounts in part for US re engagementwithCambodia.HillaryClintonsinterventionatlastyearsARFmeeting wasinresponsetoconcernsbyregionalstatesaboutChinasgrowingassertiveness in the South China Sea. But the US has larger strategic interests in engaging with Cambodia,suchaspreventingaworseningofThaiCambodiarelations. 6.IntheeventofaconflictintheSouthChinaSea,wheredoesCambodianallegiance lie? ANSWER:CambodiaisconspicuousforitssilenceontheSouthChinaSea.Itisoneof the minority members of ASEAN that has not raised concerns about China. In part Cambodia can use its relations with China to leverage a settlement with Thailand over overlapping claims in the Gulf of Thailand. Cambodia can always invite in Chinesecommercialinterests. Cambodia will duck for cover and not take sides between the claimant states and ChinaoverSouthChinaSeaissues.