Importance of UCG in Indias Energy Strategy

by Dr. Kirit Parikh, Member, Planning Commission Kabini River Lodge, Karapura Wednesday, the June 18th, 2008

The Challenges
India needs 8% to 10% economic growth to meet its economic and human development goal Ensuring access of clean, convenient and reliable energy for all Sustained growth of 8% through 2031 needs to grow Primary Energy supply by 3 to 4 times to Grow Electricity Supply by 5 to 7 times to improve Quality and quantity of supply Coal shall remain the main leading energy source till 2031-32 & beyond

The Energy Scene

Per capita consumption is low Cross-country comparisons of energy use and efficiency are full of pitfalls Consumption Per Person of Primary Energy in 2003 Region/Country TPES Per E lectricity Capita (kgoe) Consumption Per Capita (kWh) India 439 550 China 1090 1380 US 7835 13070 World 1688 2430

Energy Use Efficiency Per GDP $PPP-2000

Region/Country Primary Energy kgoe India China US World 0.16 0.23 0.22 0.21 kWhr 0.20 0.29 0.37 0.31

Use of Traditional Fuels

Causes indoor pollution NSS 1999-2000 reveals
86% of rural households use firewood and dungcakes 20% of urban households use firewood and chips

LPG
5% - Rural households 44% - Urban households

Kerosene
2.7% - Rural households 22% - Urban households

Burden of Traditional Fuels in Rural India

85 million households spent 30 billion hours in fuel wood gathering Respiratory symptoms
24 million adults (17 million have serious symptoms) 5% Bronchial asthma 16% Bronchitis 8.2% Pulmonary TB 7% Chest infection Eye diseases also increases

Economic burden of traditional fuels is around Rs.300 billion

Energy Requirements
Long-term projections based on
Assumptions vis--vis the growth of the economy Population growth Progress of energy conservation Increase in energy efficiency and Availability of different fuels

Energy Use Elasticity w.r.t. GDP

(Percentage change in commercial energy use for one percent change in GDP)

Regression Using Indias Time Series

Per Capita

Total Primary Commercial 1980-81 - 2003-04 Energy Supply (TPCES) 1990-91 - 2003-04 w.r.t. GDP (Rs. Crores 1993-94) Electricity Generated w.r.t. GDP (Utilities + Captive) 1980-81 - 2003-04 1990-91 - 2003-04

1.08 0.82

1.30 1.06

Energy Use Elasticity w.r.t. GDP from Cross-Country Data of 2003

TPES (kgoe/capita) w.r.t. per capita GDP ($ PPP 2000) All Countries 2000 <GDP <8000 GDP >8000 All Countries 2000 <GDP <8000 GDP >8000 0.83 0.79 0.76 1.24 1.25 1.09

Electricity Consumption (kWh/capita) w.r.t. per capita GDP ($ PPP 2000)

Some Energy Supply Scenario for 8% GDP Growth

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. Scenario Coal-Based Development Maximise Nuclear Forced Hydro Maximise Hydro & Nuclear 4 plus forced Natural Gas 5 plus Demand Side Management 5 plus Higher Coal Power Plant Efficiency 6 plus Coal Power Plant Efficiency 8 plus higher freight share of Railways 9 plus vehicle efficiency increased 10 plus renewables

Range of Commercial Energy Requirement, Domestic Production and Imports for 8 Percent Growth for Year 2031-32
Fuel Range of Requirement in Scenarios (R) Oil (Mt) Natural Gas- Mtoe including CBM Coal (Mtoe) TCPES 350-486 100-197 632-1022 1351-1702 Assumed Domestic Production (P) 35 100 560 Range of Imports* (I) 315-451 0-97 72-462 387-1010 Import (Percent) (I/R) 90-93 0-49 11-45 29-59

* Range of imports is calculated as follows: Lower bound = Minimum requirement Maximum domestic production Upper bound = Maximum requirement Minimum domestic production

Indias Hydro Carbon Reserves

Resources Extractable Coal Extractable Lignite Oil (2005) Gas (2005) Proved Reserve/Production No of Years 86 136 23 38

The Approximate Potential Available from Nuclear Energy

Particulars Uranium-Metal In PHWR In FBR Thorium-Metal In Breeders
Source: Department of Atomic Energy

Amount 61,000-t

Electricity MWe

10,000 5,00,000 2,25,000-t Very Large

Possible Development of Nuclear Power Installed Capacity in MW

Year 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
* It

Unit Optimistic* GWe GWe GWe GWe GWe 11 29 63 131 275

Scenario Pessimistic 9 21 48 104 208

is assumed that India will be able to import 8000 MW of Light Water Reactors with fuel over the next ten years.

Source: Department of Atomic Energy

Renewable Energy Resources

Resources Hydro-power Wood Biogas Bio-diesel Ethanol Solar Photovoltaic Solar Thermal Wind Energy Small Hydro-power Unit MW Mtoe/year Mtoe/year Mtoe/year Mtoe/Year Mtoe/year Mtoe/year Mtoe/year Present 32,326 140 0.6 0.1 <1 <1 <1 Potential 1,50,000 620 4 15 20 10 1,200 1,200 10 5

Strategic Imperatives
Energy Efficiency and DSM Augmenting Resources Energy Security including Households Environmental Sustainability A Carbon Free Scenario Energy Independence

Energy Efficiency and Demand Side Management

Promote urban mass transport Increase share of railways in freight movement Benchmarking energy consumption for all energy intensive sectors Annual audits for specified energy intensive industries Distributed Gener & CHP systems

Augmenting Resources
Accelerated exploration for coal, oil & gas Accelerating Nuclear Developing the thorium cycle for nuclear power Exploiting non-conventional energy sources Solar energy In-situ coal gasification Enhanced recovery of oil & gas

Energy Security Including for Households

Diversification Buffer Stock Clean fuels/Electricity for all/DG systems Poor Need to be Subsidised Give entitlements for each family through Smart Card
30 kWhr/Month 10 Kg LPG/Month or 10 Lts. Kerosene/Month

Environmental Sustainability
From global point of view - Carbon emissions are main concern From local point of view Degradation of natural resources are important Our CO2 emissions would rise by 2031-32
5.3 billion tonnes per year in the high coal use projection 3.8 billion tonnes per year in the low coal and renewable projection

US CO2 emissions today are in excess of 5.5 billion tonnes

Importance of UCG
Can substitute transport fuels Can be converted to liquid fuels Augments our Energy Reserves Cleaner technology Carbon capture

A Carbon Free Energy Scenario

Electricity
Nuclear Hydel Solar Electric Traction Electric Vehicles Cellulosic Ethanol Biodiesel

Oil Substitutes

Technically feasible Costs high Needs Technological breakthrough

Energy Independence Realizing Former President Kalams Vision

To augment total domestic energy supply To replace natural gas
By Industrial Use of Naphtha, Fuel Oil(FO) and High Speed Diesel Oil (HSDO) By domestic use of LPG and Kerosene

Gas to be used for power generation after above demands are met To decentralize production of bio-diesel To encourage blending of ethanol with petrol To reduce the need for diesel used for standby generators and diesel pumps by providing adequate quality power

Energy Independence. (contd.)

To expand electrification of railways To improve railways freight service To promote urban mass transport To improve fuel efficiency of motorised vehicle To encourage hybrid vehicles To eliminate oil dependence over the next 40-50 years by
Developing cheap batteries with high storage density Developing solar power Developing nuclear power based on Thorium