Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
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Never again get locked out from access to
China’s treasures
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Introducing
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Greater China Fund Contents
II. Case for Greater China (China, Hong Kong & Taiwan)
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I) Fund Objectives & Features
Greater China Equity Fund Objective
The Fund aims to achieve
It is a feeder
fund investing at least 95% of its NAV in the Schroder ISF
Greater China (a Luxembourg-domiciled fund) which invests in equity
securities of People’s Republic of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan companies.
The Fund will also maintain up to a maximum of 5% of its NAV in liquid assets.
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For Internal Use Only
Schroder ISF Greater China: Fund Performance since Fund Inception (12/5/97 to 30/4/0
Schroder ISF Gtr China A Acc (OS) 77.9%
175 75
160 60
P
P
145 45 e
r
r
i 130 30 c
c
e
e 115 15 n
100 0 t
I
n
85 -15 C
d
h
e 70 -30 a
x
n
e 55 -45
g
d
40 -60 e
25 -75
10 -90
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
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Schroder ISF Greater China Fund Performance (as at 30/4/07)
Cumulative Performance (US$ Class)
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For Internal Use Only
Standard & Poor’s Evaluation of Schroder ISF Greater China
Source: Schroders
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For Internal Use Only
Award Winning Fund: Schroder ISF Greater China
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China
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The Case for Investing in Greater China: China (The future superpower house)
1. China
iii Domestic consumption boom driven by urbanization & rising middle income class
v Continued investment growth – check out the up & coming IPOs in 2007
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For Internal Use Only
1i) China Has Underperformed other Major Emerging Markets
Performance of China equity vs other BRIC Performance of Greater China equity and
markets and Emerging Markets over the its component vs Asia ex Japan in 2006
% past 5 years (April 2002 to April 2007)
36
Calendar Year
32 China led the pack in 2006 return in 2006
China 78.1%
28
Hong Kong 36.3%
Taiwan 16.3%
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Greater China 35.0%
20 Asia ex Japan 28.5%
India Brazil Russia China Emerging
Markets
Source: S&P Micropal, USD, bid-to-bid, dividend reinvested
¾ China equities have under-performed broad emerging markets equities during the
early equity rally during 2003-2005
¾ 2006’s stellar equity performance was due to (i) successful “A” share market reform,
(ii) strong liquidity inflows to RMB denominated assets, and (iii) strong macro
economic fundamentals despite US economic slowdown.
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For Internal Use Only
PUZZLE: Is China a Bubble or an Economy
Supported by Strong Fundamentals & Earnings?
1ii) Strong Economic Growth + Insulated from US Economic Slowdown
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For Internal Use Only
1iii) Domestic Consumption Boom Driven by Urbanization
Increasing migration from
%
rual to urban areas million China’s urban population lags
45 550 behind other countries
500 Urban population as % of total population
40
450 110
35 100
China’s urbanization rate
400
is about 45% in 2005 vs
90
30 350 US’ 80%
80
300
25
70
250
20 60
200
50
15 150
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 40
30
Urban population (rhs)
20
Ratio of urban population
Philippines
Hong Kong
Latin America
Pakistan
Thailand
Indonesia
Malaysia
Singapore
Vietnam
Europe
China
World
India
Japan
USA
Korea
Asia ex-Jpn
Africa
Source: NBS, Merrill Lynch, as at 31 December 2004
Result:
Increasing domestic consumption trend in China
Source: UN, CEIC, Merrill Lynch calculations, as at 31 December 20
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For Internal Use Only
1iii) Domestic Consumption Boom Driven by Rising Middle Income Class
Urban dwellers enjoy Will Lead To
Rmb higher income
12,000 3.3
3.2
10,000
3.1
8,000 3.0
Urban dwellers spend more,
2.9
6,000 helping retail sales & GDP to grow
2.8 RMB bn
800
4,000 2.7
700
2.6
2,000 600
2.5
500
0 2.4
400
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
300
Rural annual net income per capita (lhs)
200
Urban annual disposable income per capita(lhs) 100
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For Internal Use Only
1iv) Chinese Exports are Moving Up the Value-Added Chain
% total exports
Breakdown of China’s exports Exports of Hi-Tech
35 US$ m Products Surging
More China’s exports are coming 240,000
30 from higher margin businesses
210,000
25
which offer stronger growth
180,000
20 150,000
15 120,000
10 90,000
60,000
5
30,000
0
0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Office M ach & Autom atic Data Proce s s ing M achine s
Te le com & Sound Re cording Apparatus & Eq High-Tech Exports
Te xtile s and Te xtile Artice s
Source: CEIC, ABN AMRO, as at 31 December 2005
Source: CEIC, Datastream (IMF Trade), ABN AMBO, as at 31 May 2006
¾ This leads to higher margins, i.e. more profits + stronger competitive edge vs other
countries i.e. more profits
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For Internal Use Only
1v) Continued investment growth – check out the up & coming IPOs in 2007!
Issuer Sector Size (US$m) Timing
China CITIC Bank Financial 2,000 2007 At least US$ 14 billion
China Everbright Bank Financial 1,000 2007 worth of exciting IPO in
China Heavy Duty Truck
China Pacific Insurance
Automotive
Financial
500
1,000
2007
2007
2007
China Shipyard Group Industrial 600 2007
Chongqing Machinery Industrial 300 2007
Datong Coal Energy 300 2007
Five Stars Retail 100 2007
¾ Strong IPO pipeline is
Guangxi Agriculture Agriculture 300 2007 positive for growth of market
Hunan Prince Dairy Food & Beverage 200 2007
Jiatong Tyret Auto parts 400 2007
despite the impact on
Jinjiang Hotel Hotel 300 2007 liquidity in the short term.
Kunming Steel Steel 200 2007
Ningbo Ports Transportation 300 2007
Pudong Development Bank Financial 1,000 2007 ¾ Increasing access to
Shandong Energy Energy 300 2007
Shanghai Automotive Corp Automotive 2,000 2007
capital and greater scrutiny
Shanghai Ports Transportation 750 2007 of international investors will
Shanxi Coking Energy 1,000 2007
Shenzhen Energy Energy 500 2007
lead to better quality
Sinotrans Shipping Transportation 550 2007 management.
Western Mining Basic Material 400 2007
Remarks: For illustration purposes only. It does not
Xu Fu Ji Retail 100 2007
represent any recommendation to invest in the
above-mentioned securities.
Total 14,110
*As at October 2006
Source: Schroders
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For Internal Use Only
1vi) Reasonable Valuation in Regional Context
CHINA INDIA ASIA ex JAPAN
2006E 2007E 2006E 2007E 2006E 2007E
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1vii) Will China Stop Growing after 2008 Olympics? NO!
¾Beijing expects to spend almost USD 40 billion on new stadiums, subways and
a new airport terminal. This is more than 3x Athen’s estimated USD 12 billion
infrastructure tab for the 2004 Olympics.
¾Shanghai World Expo 2010: China will also spend billions of USD on the World
Expo 2010. 200 countries & organizations will participate this major event called
“Economic Olympics”. It is likely to generate the largest number of visitors in the
history of the world’s fairs (more than 70 million!)
¾All these key events will bring about dramatic change to airports, roads,
water systems and other public work projects. We expect these massive
projects will help China’s economy continue its double-digit growth for
at least the next 4 years, not just in 2007 and 2008.
Source: Commerzbank, Schroders
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For Internal Use Only
1vii) Will China Stop Growing after 2008 Olympics? NO!
Economy Size – 2005 Economy Size – 2050
(Index US = 100) (Index US = 100)
100 100
Developed Markets Developed Markets
n n
USA Jap
a y USAJapa y a p a in a
man China a
UK France Italy Spain anad India man Chin UK France Italy S Canad I ndi
a
Ger C Ger
Source: PriceWaterhouseCoopers
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For Internal Use Only
1vii) Will China Stop Growing after 2008 Olympics? NO!
700 KOSPI
GNI/capita US$
growth % *
600
200
GNI/capita 2004
100 US$
0
China $1,500
-100
1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121
Month
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For Internal Use Only
Hong Kong
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For Internal Use Only
The Case for Investing in Greater China: Hong Kong (Riding on China)
2. Hong Kong
ii Hong Kong and China should be considered as one market as the close proximity will
complement each other’s success
iii Hong Kong is also the financial hub for North Asia which is the key beneficiary of the
opening up of financial markets in Taiwan, China and South Korea
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For Internal Use Only
Taiwan
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For Internal Use Only
The Case for Investing in Greater China: Taiwan (The Laggard & Tech Play)
3. Taiwan
ii Telecom & technology sectors look favorable and continues to support growth
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For Internal Use Only
3i) Laggard Growth Play for 2007 & 2008
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For Internal Use Only
3ii) Telecom & Tech Sectors Look Favourable and Continues to Support Growth
Capex Discipline Likely to Relative P/B Also Near Bottom of
Boost Tech ROE in 2006 (x) Historical Range
4 20,000 3.5
0 3.0
15,000
6 2.5
10,000
2 2.0 10 Year average =
5,000 1.5x
8 1.5
0
4 1.0
¾ Tech companies in Asia in general are enjoying rising earnings and cash flow due to
higher sales and better capex management.
¾ With valuations at the low end of historic ranges, we continue to find the sector attractive
and funds retain an overweight position.
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For Internal Use Only
3ii) Telecom & Tech Sectors Look Favourable: Taiwan is Tech Centric
Industry Mainstays Industry Drivers
Manufacturing mostly in
low cost China
Æ Enabling Taiwan to
concentrate on Tech
Innovation & Research
Source: CIMB-Principal
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For Internal Use Only
3iii) Growing Private Equity Interest in Taiwan
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For Internal Use Only
3iv) Potential Positive Surprise on the Political Front
Presidential Elections in
March 2008
Source: CIMB-Principal
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For Internal Use Only
Investors’ Dream: Growth at the Right Price
Strong Growth at the Right Price
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For Internal Use Only
Diversification Benefits: Low Correlations Between the 3 Greater China Markets
Correlations between the China, Hong Kong and Taiwan over the
past 10 years (April 1997 to April 2007)
Source: S&P Micropal, USD, bid-to-bid, dividend reinvested. Period: 30 April 1997 to 30 April 2007
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For Internal Use Only
INVESTMENT PROCESS & STRATEGY
Investment Process
• Quantitative & qualitative screening
1. Screen Stock • 700 company meetings p.a. in Hong Kong, China and Taiwan
Universe • Strategic Assessment
• Research Coverage List of 165 stocks
• Classification
2. Shareholder ¾ Superior, Positive Transition, Negative Transition, Inferior
Return
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For Internal Use Only
Investment Process
• Position size relative to benchmark:
4. Stock ¾ Shareholder Return
Selection
¾ Analyst Fair Value Target & Grade
¾ Contribution to Risk
• 50 to 80 stocks held
6. Model
• Client guideline compliance
Portfolio
• PRISM risk analysis
Source: Schroders
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For Internal Use Only
Company Analysis: Proprietary Fundamental Research
Source: Schroders
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For Internal Use Only
Greater China Fund Sell Discipline
¾ Company is trading at or above top of analyst’s assessment of its fair value target
Source: Schroders
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For Internal Use Only
Summary: The Schroder Advantage
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For Internal Use Only
Investment Theme in 2007: Favor Defensive & Value Stocks:
Expect momentum’s out-performance over value to end in 2007
Momentum outperformance close to 2 SD – Reversal is likely
¾ Many Asian markets in our view have moved to the last stages of a bull market where hot money
is chasing momentum and speculative stories, and fundamentals are increasingly ‘forgotten.’
¾ This situation could continue for some time (probably as long as “goldilocks” remains in vogue)
however we would view further rises from here in Asia as chance to profits.
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For Internal Use Only
Schroder ISF Greater China Sector/Country Allocation (as at 31/3/07)
Cash Others
Others Cash
7% 4%
10% 7% 2% 4%
Energy Financials 17%
Singapore 4% 25% Hong Kong
2% Co nsumer Red Chips
27%
China Staples H Shares
Source: Schroders
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For Internal Use Only
Schroder ISF Greater China Top 10 Holdings (as at 31/3/07)
Source: Schroders
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For Internal Use Only
Definition of terms
¾ H Shares: Companies incorporated n mainland China and are listed on the Hong Kong
Stock Exchange
¾ Red Chips: Companies incorporated and listed in Hong Kong with controlling Chinese
shareholders
Source: Schroders
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For Internal Use Only
FUND FEES & INFORMATION
Fees & Investment
Annual
Minimum investment of 1.8% Management
RM1,000 Fee
Trustee
0.08% Fee
Application
5.5% Fee
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Disclaimer
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For Internal Use Only
THANK YOU