Solar Data and Energy Management Infrastructure for the Electricity Grids

Marcel Suri GeoModel Solar s.r.o Bratislava, Slovakia http://solargis.info

GETCO meeting, Jodhpur 14 Sept 2011

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About GeoModel Solar

Expert consultancy: Solar resource assessment and PV yield prediction Performance characterization Country optimization potential Grid integration studies SolarGIS: Real-time solar and meteo data services for: Site selection and prefeasibility Planning and project design Monitoring and forecasting of solar power Solar data infrastructure http://geomodelsolar.eu

26th European Photovoltaics Sept Energy GETCO meeting, Jodhpur 14 Solar 2011 Conference and Exhibition, 5-9 September 2011, Hamburg

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Timeline
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

PVGIS
Research and demonstration project Promotion of PV Public awareness in Europe by European Commission, Joint Research Centre

SolarGIS
Commercial database, Professional software Industrial applications by GeoModel Solar

26th European Photovoltaics Sept Energy GETCO meeting, Jodhpur 14 Solar 2011 Conference and Exhibition, 5-9 September 2011, Hamburg

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Solar data infrastructure

solar radiation
satellite, models + ground

meteo data

ancillary data

solar power plants

Solar power simulation models

solar technology parameters

Web interface Corporate IT historical data Planning, administration, Management of permitting Grid integration studies Monitoring Antifraud

real-time data - nowcasting - forecasting Management of power generation Energy trading

performance data
GETCO meeting, Jodhpur 14 Sept 2011

market analysis technical development

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Solar data infrastructure

solar radiation
satellite, models + ground

DATA
ancillary data solar power plants

meteo data

Solar power simulation models

solar technology parameters

Web interface Corporate IT historical data Planning, administration, Management of permitting Grid integration studies Monitoring Antifraud

real-time data - nowcasting - forecasting Management of power generation Energy trading

performance data
GETCO meeting, Jodhpur 14 Sept 2011

market analysis technical development

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Database: Solar and meteo data, parameters of each power plant

Database should integrate: Satellite-based solar data update every 30 minutes Ground-measured solar and meteo data Sites with technical specification of each power plant

GETCO meeting, Jodhpur 14 Sept 2011

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Solar data infrastructure

solar radiation
satellite, models + ground

SOFTWARE
ancillary data solar power plants

meteo data

Solar power simulation models

solar technology parameters

Web interface Corporate IT historical data Planning, administration, Management of permitting Grid integration studies Monitoring Antifraud

real-time data - nowcasting - forecasting Management of power generation Energy trading

performance data
GETCO meeting, Jodhpur 14 Sept 2011

market analysis technical development

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Performance under STC (Standard Test Conditions): 1429 kWh/kWp

Global irradiation (module surface) Shading by terrain

Air temperature

SolarGIS PV simulation models

-0.0%

Angular reflection Performance outside STC DC losses Inverters

-3.1%

-8.5%

-6.5% 2.5%

-2.5% 0.5%

AC and transformers -1.0% 0.5% Availability

-0.5% 0.5%

-10.0% 2.5%

Output: 1141 kWh/kWp

DC losses: mismatch, cabling, dirt, dust, snow, icing, self-shading, Simulations for a variety of PV modules (c-Si, CdTe, CIS/CIGS, a-Si, ) Simulations for fixed and tracking systems - # -

GETCO meeting, Jodhpur 14 Sept 2011

Solar data infrastructure

solar radiation
satellite, models + ground

APPLICATIONS
ancillary data solar power plants

meteo data

Solar power simulation models

solar technology parameters

Web interface Corporate IT historical data Planning, administration, Management of permitting Grid integration studies Monitoring Antifraud

real-time data - nowcasting - forecasting Management of power generation Energy trading

performance data
GETCO meeting, Jodhpur 14 Sept 2011

market analysis technical development

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Online system for management of PV and solar energy

Interactive and automated tools: Support to planning, permitting, inventory and reporting Monitoring, performance assessment and fraud detection Solar power forecasting Expert consultancy Grid integration studies

Example: http://solargis.info

26th European Photovoltaics Sept Energy GETCO meeting, Jodhpur 14 Solar 2011 Conference and Exhibition, 5-9 September 2011, Hamburg

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Support to planning and reporting

Interactive access to high resolution maps and the database Map-supported system Customer technical data Long-term solar radiation and energy production estimates, for 1 system or regional clusters Support to permitting Support to solar-roof programs All info at hand

example: http://solargis.info
26th European Photovoltaics Sept Energy GETCO meeting, Jodhpur 14 Solar 2011 Conference and Exhibition, 5-9 September 2011, Hamburg

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Power monitoring
Power production and monitoring for each system or regional cluster of systems Protection against fraud Inventory of the performance of individual systems and grid

http://solargis.info
26th European Photovoltaics Sept Energy GETCO meeting, Jodhpur 14 Solar 2011 Conference and Exhibition, 5-9 September 2011, Hamburg

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Grid integration 1/4 Power generation of a single PV system

fixed 35

1x tracker 35axis

GETCO meeting, Jodhpur 14 Sept 2011

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Grid integration 2/4: Spatial and time correlation

Simulation of daily profiles at the level of TS
Power generation from 1000 MWp capacity which is concentrated in the territories with radius 10, 50, 150, and 500 km, centered in the opposite regions of the Czech Republic Simulation period: 17.05.2005 to 24.05.2005

Capacity concentrated in Western Bohemia Southern Moravia

GETCO meeting, Jodhpur 14 Sept 2011

Capacity concentrated in

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Spatial and time correlation

17.05.2005 a 24.05.2005

Variable weather ruffles/undulates power generation profile at the level of TS (blue line)
GETCO meeting, Jodhpur 14 Sept 2011

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Short-term variability in a Transmission system

17.05.2005 a 24.05.2005

Daily profiles (above) and variability (below): Transmission System 10 randomly selected 1MWp PV plants

July 2009

GETCO meeting, Jodhpur 14 Sept 2011

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Forecasting
tatistika SolarGIS Database of solar power plants Monitoring of seected power plants

data SolarGIS

forecast NWP

GETCO meeting, Jodhpur 14 Sept 2011

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Forecast for horizon 0 to 5 hours

Satellite data are used with geometry-statistical approach of cloud movements Time step up to 30 minutes Data integration 1 hour

200 180 160

RMSE (W/sq.m)

persistencia predikcia pohybu oblakov predikn model ECMWF

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1h 2h 3h 4h 5h 6h Time Horizon 2d 3d 4d

GETCO meeting, Jodhpur 14 Sept 2011

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Forecast for horizon 5 to 48 hours

postprocessing of numerical weather forecast model update every 12 hours forecast horizon: 0 72 hod

200 180 160

RMSE (W/sq.m)

persistencia predikcia pohybu oblakov predikn model ECMWF

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1h 2h 3h 4h 5h 6h Time Horizon 2d 3d 4d

GETCO meeting, Jodhpur 14 Sept 2011

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Forecast validation example

GETCO meeting, Jodhpur 14 Sept 2011

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Marcel Suri
GeoModel Solar, Slovakia suri@geomodel.eu

Thank you!

GETCO meeting, Jodhpur 14 Sept 2011

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