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Sector: Textiles
What Happened Last Quarter
Page Industries Limited (PAG.IN/PAGE.BO)
Market Perform with Outperform bias
(CMP: Rs.481.3, Mkt. Cap: Rs.5.4 bn, US$135 mn Feb 1, ’08)
Relevant Index: S&P CNX Nifty: 5315.65 (Feb 1, ’08)

Q3 performance along expected lines…

Rapid expansion of distribution network to aid top line
growth ahead…
Last report’s recommendation: MarketPerform with OP bias (MP: Rs.411.9 Dec 4 ’07)
Relevant Index: S&P CNX Nifty: 5858.35 (Dec 4,’07)
Relative performance since last rating change: S&P CNX Nifty down 9.2%, Page up 16.8 %

February 1, 2008
Research Contact: Associate Director, Research: Hitesh Kuvelkar Mob. +91 9833 732633
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Price and Rating History Chart

Ratings Key
B = Buy BD = Buy at Declines OP = Outperform
Positive Ratings S-OP = Sector M-OP = Market Outperform MO-OP = Moderate
Outperform Outperform
Neutral Ratings H = Hold MP = Market Perform SP = Sector Perform
S = Sell SS = Sell into Strength UP = Underperform
Negative Ratings
A = Avoid MO-UP = Moderate Underperform S-UP = Sector Underperform

ST: Short Term MT: Medium Term LT: Long Term

Page Industries Limited (PAG.IN/PAGE.BO)

550
16-Mar-07 = 100 (LHS)
160 30-Jan-08
MO -O P 500

145
450

130
400

(INR)
115 4-De c-07 350
MO -O P

100 300

85 250

70 200
16- 4- 23- 11- 30- 18- 4- 20- 7- 24- 11- 27- 16- 1- 19- 5- 24- 10- 28-
Mar- Apr- Apr- May-May- Jun- Jul- Jul- Aug- Aug- Se p- Se p- O ct- Nov- Nov- De c- De c- Jan- Jan-
07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 07 08 08
Re lative to NIFTY (LHS) FG Re co Page Industrie s (RHS)

Represents an Upgrade

Represents a Downgrade

Represents Reiteration of Existing Rating

Details of First Global’s Rating System given at the end of the report

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Financial Snapshot
Key Financials
(YE Mar 31st) (Rs. mn) FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08E FY 09E
Operating Revenue 625 747 1,013 1,362 1,848 2,480
Revenue Growth (Y-o-Y) 25.9% 19.5% 35.8% 34.4% 35.7% 34.2%
EBIDTA 87 76 189 273 384 533
EBIDTA Growth (Y-o-Y) 34.3% -12.1% 147.8% 44.1% 40.7% 39.0%
Net Profit 53 42 114 170 248 334
Net Profit Growth (Y-o-Y) 68.9% -19.5% 168.6% 49.5% 45.6% 34.9%
Proforma Net Profit (Excl.Extra-ordinaries) 53 42 114 166 248 334
Proforma Net Profit Growth (Y-o-Y) 68.9% -19.5% 168.6% 45.9% 49.1% 34.9%
Shareholders Equity 52 67 125 677 849 1,107
Number of Diluted shares (mn) 9.8 9.8 9.8 11.2 11.2 11.2
Key Operating Ratios
(YE Mar 31st) FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08E FY 09E
Proforma Diluted EPS (INR) 5.4 4.3 11.7 14.9 22.2 30.0
EPS Growth (Y-o-Y) 68.9% -19.5% 168.6% 27.7% 49.1% 34.9%
CEPS (Rs.) (Excl. Extra-Ordinaries) 6.2 5.1 12.5 16.3 25.0 33.3
EBIDTA (%) 13.9% 10.2% 18.7% 20.0% 20.8% 21.5%
NPM (%) 8.4% 5.7% 11.2% 12.2% 13.4% 13.5%
Tax/PBT (%) 26.0% 30.0% 34.3% 34.2% 31.3% 33.0%
RoE (%) 65.5% 58.0% 92.0% 38.7% 30.9% 32.9%
RoCE (%) 33.1% 25.3% 46.5% 28.8% 24.8% 26.3%
Book Value per share (INR) 5.3 6.8 12.8 60.7 76.1 99.2
Debt/Equity (x) 2.1 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.3
Dividend Payout Ratio (%) 104.2% 65.1% 48.6% 32.6% 30.8% 22.8%
Valuation Ratios
(YE Mar 31st) FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08E FY 09E
P/E (x) 21.7 16.1
P/BV (x) 6.3 4.9
P/CEPS (x) 19.3 14.5
EV/EBIDTA (x) 14.2 9.9
Market Cap. / Sales (x) 2.9 2.2
Div. Yield (%) 1.2% 1.2%
DuPont Model
(YE Mar 31st) FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08E FY 09E
EBIDTA/Sales (%) 13.9% 10.2% 18.7% 20.0% 20.8% 21.5%
Sales/Operating Assets (x) 3.8 3.7 4.0 3.4 2.7 2.6
EBIDTA/Operating Assets (%) 52.3% 38.2% 75.1% 67.6% 55.5% 55.9%
Operating Assets/ Net Assets (x) 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7
Net Earnings/ EBIDTA (%) 60.6% 55.5% 60.2% 61.0% 64.6% 62.7%
Net Assets/ Equity (x) 1.9 2.6 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.3
Return on Equity (%) 65.5% 58.0% 92.0% 38.7% 30.9% 32.9%

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Common Sized Profit & Loss Account

(YE Mar 31st) FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08E FY 09E
Total Revenues 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Less: Raw Material 56.4% 58.5% 51.9% 51.0% 49.2% 47.5%
Less: Personnel 11.8% 12.2% 11.6% 14.3% 14.5% 14.7%
Less: Advertisement and sales promotion Exp. 17.9% 19.0% 17.8% 14.7% 15.5% 16.3%
EBITDA 13.9% 10.2% 18.7% 20.0% 20.8% 21.5%
Less: Depreciation and Amortization 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 1.1% 1.7% 1.5%
Less: Interest 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.5%
Add: Non-Operating Income 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 1.4% 2.2% 1.6%
PBT 11.4% 8.1% 17.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Less: Tax 3.0% 2.4% 5.9% 19.0% 19.5% 20.1%
PAT 8.4% 5.7% 11.2% 6.5% 6.1% 6.6%
PAT (Excl. Extra-ordinaries) 8.4% 5.7% 11.2% 12.5% 13.4% 13.5%

Top Management Team Capital Issue History

Equity
Equity shares
Designation Name Date Capital
Issued
Managing Director Sunder Genomal (INR mn)
Director Ramesh Genomal 27/02/1995 4.2 Equity shares issued
Alternate Director V Sivadas 26/07/1995 7 Further Issue
Chairman Nari Genomal
20/02/1998 10 Further Issue
30/03/1998 12.5 Further Issue
Alternate Director P V Menon
18/03/2000 19.6 Further Issue
Director Timothy Ralph Wheeler
20/03/2002 24.4 Further Issue
Director Ravi Uppal
29/09/2006 97.4 Bonus Issue
Director G P Albal 10/3/2007 111.5 Public Issue
Company Secretary R Vijayakumar

Key Statistics
Share Holding Pattern - Dec '07 Industry: Textile
Public & 52 Week Hi: Lo: Rs.511.3/245
Others
6%
Foreign CMP: Rs. 481.3
7%
Avg Daily Vol (20 days): 2,000

Avg Daily Val (20 days): Rs.1.08 mn

Institutions
13%
Performance over 52 weeks:
T otal Non
Promoters Promoter
PAGEIND: Up 70.1 % *
73% Corporate
Holding
2% Nifty: Up 26.6 %

* Page Industries’ performance since listing (March 16,’07)

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Page Industries’ Business in Pictures…(FY07)

(All figures are in Rs. mn except where stated otherwise) All percentages are percent of revenues, unless otherwise stated)

Operations/ Value added Segmental break-up: Jockey

Total Revenues: Rs.1362 mn (100%) Men – 72 %
Raw Material – Rs 476 mn Women – 14%
(34.9%) Leisurewear – 14%
Manf. Exp. – Rs 219 mn
(16.1%) Raw Material – Rs 695mn (51.0%)
Selling and Distribution Exp– Rs. 198 mn (14.5%) Revenue distribution (Format –wise):
Raw Material: Personnel exp – Rs. 195 mn (14.3%) Hosiery stores – 45 %
Indigenous – 98% Miscellaneous exp – Rs. 2 mn (0.2%) Multi-brand stores– 22%
Import – 2% Departmental stores – 15%
Chain stores – 10%
Exclusive stores – 8%
Raw Material, primarily yarn
sourced by the company’s EBIDTA – Rs 273 mn (20.0%)
dedicated suppliers, with
which the company stands
long-term relations
Interest – Rs. 24 mn (1.8%) Pricing Competition
Basics – Up to Rs. 80 Neva, Hanes
Depreciation – Rs 15 mn (1.1%) Premium – Rs. 80-150 Cromozome,
Below Non-Operating Income – Rs 19 mn (1.4%) Super Premium – More Playtex, Maxwell
Operating than Rs. 150 (VIP, Frenchie-X,
Line Extraordinary Income – Rs 6 mn (0.4%) Feeling, Lovable),
Body Care,
Triumph, Rupa,
Lux, Rivolta,
Profit Before Tax- Rs 259 mn (19.0%)
Tommy Hilfiger,
Van Huesean,
Calvin Klein &
other international
Taxes- Rs 89 mn (6.5%) brands

Profit After Tax - Rs. 170 mn (12.5%)

Balance Sheet
Assets Rs 1211 mn (100%) Liabilities

Fixed Assets – Rs. 188 mn (15.3%) Equity – Rs. 112 mn (9.2%)

Investments – Rs.137 mn (11.3%) Debt – Rs. 253 mn (20.9%)

Capital WIP – Rs. 61 mn (5.0%) Reserves – Rs. 566 mn (46.7%)

Current Assets – Rs 721 mn (59.5%) Deferred Tax – Rs 8 mn (0.1%)

Loans & Advances – Rs 103 mn (8.5%) Current Liabilities– Rs. 272 mn (22.5%)
Current Assets-
Inventory - Rs 364 mn (50.5%)
Receivables - Rs 56 mn (7.8%)
Cash & Bank – Rs 302 mn (41.9%)

Loans & Advances: Current Liabilities:

Operating Loans & Advn – Rs 101 mn (98.1%) Creditors – Rs 106 mn (39.0%)
Non-Operating. Advn – Rs 2 mn (1.9%) Provisions –Rs 28 mn (10.3%)
Others – Rs 138 mn (50.7%)

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What Happened Last Quarter…

Page Industries Limited’s (PAG.IN/PAGE.BO) performance in Q3 FY08 was in line with our
expectations. The company recorded a top line growth of 37% Y-o-Y to Rs.518 mn, as against our
estimate of Rs.524 mn. The Men segment grew by 35% Y-o-Y (a top line contribution of ~72%), the
Women segment grew by 43% Y-o-Y (a top line contribution of 14%), while Others, which
primarily includes shorts and socks, grew by 46% Y-o-Y (a top line contribution of ~14%) in Q3
FY08.

Page’s EBIDTA margin improved by 180 bps sequentially to 20.5% in Q3 FY08, as against 18.8%
in Q2 FY08. The company came out with a public issue in March ’07 and thus historical quarterly
data for prior period is not available, hence Y-o-Y comparison of the quarterly numbers is not
possible. The net profit grew by 46% Y-o-Y to Rs.65 mn in the quarter, as against our estimate of
Rs.67 mn.

Page has further strengthened its distribution network and increased its distributors from 143 in
FY07 to 232 in Q3 FY08, catering to the
requirements of around 15,000 retail outlets. The
Page has further strengthened its company also added around 200 ‘Jockey Comfort
distribution network and increased its Zone’ stores, which primarily retails Jockey products
distributors from 143 in FY07 to 232 in
(~90%) in a semi-exclusive retail format. Jockey
Q3 FY08, catering to the requirements of
around 15,000 retail outlets. The currently operates through 30 exclusive brand outlets
company also added around 200 ‘Jockey (EBO), which it plans to 35 by the end of FY08.
Comfort Zone’ stores, which primarily
retails Jockey products (~90%) in a Jockey launched its International premium collection
semi-exclusive retail format and added 13 new products in the men innerwear
segment and 5 new products in the women innerwear
segment in the quarter. Earlier, Jockey marketed its
International collection only through Exclusive brand outlets
(EBO), although the company now plans to retail the same Apart from EBOs and multi-
through other retail formats as well. Apart from EBOs and brand stores, Jockey had
multi-brand stores, Jockey had already entered into an already entered into an
agreement with format stores, such as Pantaloon, Reliance, agreement with format stores,
Shopper’s Stop, Globus, etc. such as Pantaloon, Reliance,
Shopper’s Stop, Globus, etc.
On the valuations front, the stock currently trades at a P/E of
16x and an EV/EBIDTA of 10x our FY09 estimates. On
account of its premium product positioning, Page
commands much superior margins and return ratios,
On account of its premium product in comparison to its peer, Maxwell. We believe that
positioning, Page commands much the rapid expansion of Page’s distribution network
superior margins and return ratios, in will aid its top line growth in the coming quarters.
comparison to its peer, Maxwell… We expect Page to record a top line of Rs.370 mn
… we believe that the rapid expansion and a diluted EPS of Rs.4.2 in Q4 FY08. We
of Page’s distribution network will aid reiterate our rating of Marketperform with
its top line growth in the coming Outperform bias on Page.
quarters. We expect Page to record a top
line of Rs.370 mn and a diluted EPS of
Rs.4.2 in Q4 FY08. We reiterate our
rating of Marketperform with
Outperform bias on Page
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Comparative Valuations – Indian Innerwear Segment

Company Year P/E P/S EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EBITDA RoE RoCE Annual Annual
P/BV
End (x) (x) (x)
(x) (x) Margin (%) (%) EPS Sales
(%) Growth Growth
(%) (%)
FY08EFY09EFY08EFY09EFY08EFY09EFY08EFY09EFY08EFY09E FY08E FY08EFY08E (09/08) (09/08)
Page Industries Mar 21.7 16.1 2.9 2.2 6.3 4.9 2.9 2.1 14.2 9.9 20.8% 30.9% 24.8% 34.9% 34.2%
Maxwell * Mar 16.7 14.8 0.7 0.6 1.8 1.6 0.7 0.7 6.4 6.3 11.0% 10.7% 7.9% 13.0% 13.0%

Source: FG Estimates

* Quick Estimates for Maxwell Industries (VIP Innerwear)

Earnings Model
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
(YE Mar 31) (Rs. mn) FY08 FY08 FY08 FY08E FY08E
Net Sales 474 481 518 370 1,848

Less: Net Raw Materials (incl. Manf. cost) 235 230 267 178 910
Less: Personnel 66 72 77 53 268
Less: Selling, general & admin expenses 71 89 67 60 287
Total Cost 373 391 412 291 1,465
EBIDTA 101 90 107 79 384
Less: Depreciation 7 7 11 6 31
EBIT 94 84 96 72 353
Add: Other Income 11 13 11 6 41
Less: Interest 8 7 10 8 33
PBT 96 90 98 71 361
Less: Total Tax 30 27 32 24 113
Profit After Tax 66 63 65 46 248

Diluted Earnings Per Share (In Rs.) 6.0 5.7 5.9 4.2 22.2
Weighted average Shares Outstanding (mn) 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.2

EBIDTA Margin (%) 21.4% 18.8% 20.5% 21.3% 20.8%

EBIT (%) 19.8% 17.4% 18.5% 19.6% 19.1%
PBT Margin (%) 20.3% 18.6% 18.8% 19.1% 19.5%
NPM (%) 14.0% 13.1% 12.6% 12.6% 13.4%
Effective Tax Rate (%) 31.1% 29.6% 12.6% 12.6% 13.4%

* The company was listed in March 2007, thus historical quarterly financials are not available.

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Price Target
Price targets (if any) are derived from a subjective and/or quantitative analysis of financial and non-
financial data of the concerned company using a combination of P/E, P/Sales, earnings growth,
discounted cash flow (DCF) and its stock price history.

The risks that may impede achievement of the price target/investment thesis are -
Change in regulatory environment affecting the policies of the government towards textiles
industry.

Higher than expected increase in raw material prices, primarily cotton may impact the
demand of the consumers and thus impact the profitability of the company.

Shift of demand due to unanticipated price cuts/discounts/special offers made by competitors.

Entry of new & aggressive competitors – particularly overseas brands not available in India
currently

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First Global’s Rating System

Our rating system consists of three categories of ratings: Positive, Neutral and Negative. Within each
of these categories, the rating may be absolute or relative. When assigning an absolute rating, the
price target, if any, and the time period for the achievement of this price target, are given in the
report. Similarly when assigning a relative rating, it will be with respect to certain market/sector
index and for a certain period of time, both of which are specified in the report.
Rating in this report is relative to: S&P CNX Nifty
Positive Ratings
(i) Buy (B) – This rating means that we expect the stock price to move up and achieve our specified
price target, if any, over the specified time period.
(ii) Buy at Declines (BD) – This rating means that we expect the stock to provide a better (lower)
entry price and then move up and achieve our specified price target, if any, over the specified time
period.
(ii) Outperform (OP) – This is a relative rating, which means that we expect the stock price to
outperform the specified market/sector index over the specified time period.

Neutral Ratings
(i) Hold (H) – This rating means that we expect no substantial move in the stock price over the
specified time period.
(ii) Marketperform (MP) – This is a relative rating, which means that we expect the stock price to
perform in line with the performance of the specified market/sector index over the specified time
period.
Negative Ratings
(i) Sell (S) – This rating means that we expect the stock price to go down and achieve our specified
price target, if any, over the specified time period.
(ii) Sell into Strength (SS) – This rating means that we expect the stock to provide a better (higher)
exit price in the short term, by going up. Thereafter, we expect it to move down and achieve our
specified price target, if any, over the specified time period.
(iii) Underperform (UP) – This is a relative rating, which means that we expect the stock price to
underperform the specified market/sector index over the specified time period.
(iv) Avoid (A) – This rating means that the valuation concerns and/or the risks and uncertainties
related to the stock are such that we do not recommend considering the stock for investment
purposes.

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