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1

Research on the Visibility of the Shawwal Crescent, (Eid-ul-Fitr) 1429 A.H.


Mon. 29th Sept. 2008: (Pakistan: 28th Ramadhan / Saudi Arabia: 29th Ramadhan, according to announcement / According
to Ummul-Qura: 29th Ramadhan 1429 A.H. also).

The birth of the Shawwal 1429 A.H. lunar crescent will take place on Mon. 29th Sept. 2008 at 08:12 UT/GMT. In Pakistan
the time will be 14:12 Monday afternoon and in Saudi Arabia it will be 11:12.

As the age & the other factors affecting upon the visibility of the crescent, e.g. Lag, Rel.Azi. and Elongation
etc. will be extremely defective in the whole inhabited world on Mon. 29th Sept. 2008, Therefore the Astronomy
Department of Jamia-tur-Rasheed, in consonance with the researches of Al-Beruni, Yaqoob-bin-Tariq, Babylonians and
the ancient Indians, as well as more than eighteen ancient and modern criteria of sighting the moon, predicts that there
is no possibility of sighting the crescent with the naked eye anywhere in Pakistan, Hindustan, Iran, Afghanistan or Saudi
Arabia as well as in the entire inhabited world.

The defectiveness of the crescent’s conditions on 29th Sept. 2008 can be judged by the fact that the crescent
will set before, or at exactly the same time as the sun, in Australia, Asia, Europe, in the northern countries of Africa, and
in the entire North American continent. In Pakistan the age of the crescent will hardly be 5 hours and in Saudi Arabia
hardly 7 hours. On 29th Sept. the crescent will set before the sun everywhere in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. In Peshawar,
for example it will set 15 min. before the sun; in Karachi, 10 min. and in Makkah Mukarramah 6 min. On this day if a man
were to climb a height of 10,000 ft. even the moon set would occur before the sun from there.

Tues. 30th Sept. 2008. (Pakistan: 29th Ramadhan/ Saudi Arabia “???” According to announcement/ According to Ummul-
Qura: 30th Ramadhan 1429 A.H.

As the declination of the crescent on 30th Sept. will be entirely southern, for example, in Karachi, at the time of
sunset i.e. at 19:19 the declination of the crescent will be “-13.3o . Thus in spite of being more than 24 hrs. old, the
conditions of the crescent will be extremely defective in all the areas lying along the Northern Latitude and it will be
extremely difficult to see it. In fact, according to nearly all old and new criteria, there are no chances of sighting the
crescent with the naked eye anywhere in Taiwan, Central China, Bangladesh, Northern India, the entire Pakistan,
Afghanistan, Iran, Northern Saudi Arabia, the northern-most parts of Africa, Canada, and in all the areas lying further
north to the countries just mentioned.

The areas in which, according to all modern and ancient criteria, there is a clear possibility of sighting the moon
on 30th Sept. 2008 are: 1) Australia, 2) the central and Southern areas of the continent of Africa 3) South America 4)
Central America.

Experts are of different views about whether the crescent will be visible or not in Southern India, Southern
Saudi Arabia, the Northern areas of Africa and the United States of America. Al-Beruni, Yaqoob-bin-Tariq, the
Babylonians and Forthringham etc. are of the view that there is no possibility of sighting the crescent with the naked eye
in these areas on 30th Sept. 2008, whereas Bernard Yallop (Britain) Khalid Shaukat (U.S.A) and Shaukat Odeh (Jordan) have
predicted a very slight chance of sighting the crescent with the naked eye in the above-mentioned countries.

Meanwhile in the opinion of Dr. Omar Afzal, Chairman of the Committee for Crescent Observation
International, [an American Institute of Astronomy established since 1978, among whose members are Dr. S. K. Abdali,
Dr. Monzur Ahmad, Dr. Rauf Imam, Charles Evans (Abu Bakr)] there is no possibility at all of sighting the crescent in
Southern Hindustan, Southern Saudi Arabia and in the Northern areas of Africa on 30th Sept. 2008. He has predicted the
ruet to be very sensitive in the Southern states of America i.e. Florida, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona etc.

Wed. 1st Oct. 2008. (Pakistan: ??? / Saudi Arabia: ????? according to announcement / According to Ummul-Qura: 1st
Shawwal 1429 A.H.
2

As on 1st Oct. 2008 (in fact from 1st till 12th Oct.) the declination of the crescent will tend towards the south (e.g. in
Karachi, at the time of sunset ……19:19, the declination of the moon will be -18.20) therefore there is no possibility of
sighting the crescent in any of the countries lying 45 or 500 above the northern latitude. However in most of the
inhabited areas lying at a lower latitude the crescent will be clearly visible to the naked eye.

Conditions of the Crescent in Karachi on Wed. 1st Oct. 2008:

According to Dr. Monzur Ahmad’s software, Mooncalculator6.0, the conditions of the crescent in Karachi on
st
Wed. 1 Oct. 2008 at the time of sunset, i.e. at 19:19, will be as follows:

Altitude: 11.5

Rel. Azi. = -23

Elongation = 25.9

Age = 53 hrs. 06 min.

Lag. = 1 hr.

In the light of the findings given above, as there is a clear possibility of sighting the crescent with the naked eye
in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Iran etc. only on the 1st of Oct. 2008 and not before, Eid-ul-Fitr in these countries
(and specially in Pakistan) should fall on 2nd Oct. 2008.

As through different criteria of sighting, there is a possibility of moon sighting in Southern Saudi Arabia and
Southern Hindustan on Tues. 30th Sept. 2008, hence, Eid-ul-Fitr may fall on Wed. 1st Oct. there.

It is to be noted here that as the conditions of the moon will be extremely defective in the entire inhabited
world on 29th Sept. and in most of the Northern Hemisphere, especially in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Iran etc. on
30th Sept. therefore if any person claims to have seen the crescent with the naked eye in any part of the world on Mon.
29th Sept. and in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran, Afghanistan etc. on the evening of 30th Sept. and if his claim is accepted
without the verification and investigation of experts of Fiqh and Astronomy then that will be an extremely surprising and
incomprehensible decision.

Note: Every month, an up-dated report on the possibility of sighting the moon of the new Islamic month can be
downloaded in three languages ….. English, Urdu and Arabic, from the following website along with important maps and
pictures: http://www.esnips.com/web/MoonnewsofJamiaturrasheed/

Muhammad Sultan Alam/Head of Research Committee

Astronomy Department, Jamia-tur-Rasheed/Ahsanabad, Karachi. Pakistan.

Sultanalam_74@yahoo.com

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