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March 2003
Wagner discusses how the war on terrorism has changed our world and the impact that unpredictability of future events has on global politics and economics.
by Daniel Wagner1 Asian Development Bank
Enhanced Security?
In the 18 months that have passed since the events of 9/11, the world has changed in many profound ways. A small band of terrorists, a tiny fraction of a percent of the global population, have succeeded in changing most of our lives, perhaps forever. Questions of security now permeate our lives. When considering a business trip or holiday, we now routinely factor into the equation whether a destination is considered safe', what is the least potentially dangerous route and method of travel to get there, and what additional time must be added to account for the now routine' enhanced security checks. While the security apparatus' in place at airports is much more thorough and sophisticated than it was two years ago, it is truly shocking how large the gaps in security in other modes of transportation are, and how vulnerable to attack we remain. There is virtually no meaningful security on trains and buses, outside cities, or for soft' targets. And the cyber' risks to our civilian and military communication networks are enormous, the impact of a successful attack being too catastrophic to contemplate. These vulnerabilities will continue to exist for the foreseeable future, for the costs associated with seriously addressing the gaps are exceedingly high. No matter how good security becomes, it will never be good enough to thwart all of the terrorist threats we face. It is not just security procedures that have in some cases become more sophisticated. Complicating the fight against terrorist organizations is their increasingly sophisticated nature, not just from an operational perspective, but also in terms of how they are funded. For example, Jemaah Islamiahthe Indonesia-based terrorist organizationhas created at least 50 commercial businesses in Asia that provide a plethora of sources of finance for its operations. Hence, law enforcement and intelligence agencies must now identify these sources of funding in order to destroy their ability to operate.
A Changed World
There is no doubt that we are at a pivotal moment in history. How the world's civilized nations collectively fight against terrorism will determine the future course of international relations. The stakes are extremely high in a war on Iraq, for a variety of reasons. If the United Nations Security Council is unable to reach a majority consensus on the best path for eliminating the threat of weapons of mass destruction from Iraq, it stands little chance of achieving the same where North Korea and other problem nations are concerned. That the UN passed a series of resolutions demanding the disarmament of Iraq over the past 12 years, that Iraq ignored them, and that there was no consequence for having ignored them, raises the question of the relevance of UN-sponsored diplomacy. As was the case in the 1990s, when the UN failed to impose an effective, acceptable solution to the atrocities in Rwanda and Bosnia, the organization risks becoming irrelevant in determining the course of international affairs today. There has already been a significant shift in bilateral relations between the United States and Europe, Russia, and China as a result of the debate on the war on Iraq. At issue where Europe is concerned is the fissure that has arisen in NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization). France and Germany's opposition to a U.S.-led war against Iraq has brought into question the very essence of NATO. By thwarting NATO's ability to protect Turkey (a NATO member) against attack in the war, France and Germany have broken a central tenet of the NATO Charterthat an attack against one NATO member is an attack against all NATO members. While attempting to create a counterweight to U.S. power, France and Germany may succeed in shattering an alliance that the Soviet Union could not destroy. This may have serious consequences in the West's ability to wage a war on terrorism, and on future actions involving NATO. What is likely to emerge as a result is an enhanced role for individual European countries in international affairs, while the role of NATO could diminish with time.
Korea
The real wild card, in my view, is what happens on the Korean Peninsula. Kim Kong Il may just be posturing with his latest nuclear antics. That is what history would suggest. But the United States is less likely than before to succumb to Kim's blackmail and Kim is probably more likely to lash out as a result. His regime is increasingly desperate for cash and more restrictions will inevitably be placed on North Korea's missile and weapons exports. Kim has already terminated the nuclear monitoring regime of the International Atomic Energy Agency; he has threatened to nullify the 1953 armistice ending the Korean War; and he has restarted the nuclear reactor at Yongbyon. Backed into a corner, with an increasingly hungry population, fewer and fewer financial resources, more bellicose rhetoric, and a raised ante, it is not inconceivable that Kim will cross the line and elicit a harsh response from the United States. Should this happen, a very serious situation would develop on the Korean Peninsula, which could turn catastrophic.