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Pakistan2010Floods DamageandNeedsAssessment DraftFindings

CONTENTS

ObjectiveandMethodology Summaryoffindings

FloodExtent31st ofJuly(InitialStagesofFlood)

TotalInundationExtentoftheFloods

THEPURPOSEOFTHEDNAISTOASSESSTHEDAMAGEANDLOSSESCAUSED ANDCALCULATETHECOSTOFRECONSTRUCTION

TheDNAIS
anoverviewofsectorlevelprogram strategiesandpolicyoptions basedoncostofreplacingwhatwas lostwithabuildbackbetter/smarter factor basedonreplacingpermanent assetsandservices aquantificationofpublicneeds requirements

TheDNAisNOT
prescriptive,doesnotpresenta menuofprojects

inclusiveofdevelopmentcosts EarlyRecovery definedas transitionalservices theseare coveredinUNreport Inclusiveofprivateneeds requirements

ObjectiveoftheDNA: Toprovidethestrategicunderpinningsformedium tolongtermpostfloods reconstructionandrecoveryplanning,prioritization,andprogramming

DAMAGEASSESSMENTHASBEENCONDUCTEDTHROUGHDATAVERIFICATIONS WHILENEEDSASSESSMENTISBASEDONANALYSISANDPOLICYDECISIONS

Datacollection&verification

Dataanalysis&policydecisions DirectDamages:monetaryvalueofthecompletely orpartiallydestroyedassetsimmediatelyfollowing thedisaster IndirectLosses:incomelosses,changeofflowof goodsandservices,increasedexpenses,curtailed productionanddiminishedrevenue,arisingfrom directdamagetoproductioncapacityandsocialand economicinfrastructure ReconstructionCosts:costofrebuildinglostassets andrestoringlostservices.Generallyassessedatthe replacementcostwithapremiumaddedforbuild backbetter/smarterbasedonpolicydecisions

Sectoralprofilesbasedon: 1. Datafromquestionnaires 2. Secondarydata Verificationthrough: 1. Fieldvisitsbysectorteams 2. Interviewswithstakeholders 3. Deskreviews 4. Satelliteimagery 5. Otherplausibilitychecks

THEDNAUSESTHEECLACMETHODOLOGYWHICHHASBEENUSEDINPOST DISASTERASSESSMENTFOROVERTHIRTYYEARS

SnapshotofDNAMethodology
*Recovery& Reconstruction *Macro

*Sectorbysector

*Predisaster performance

EXPERTTEAMSHAVEBEENWORKINGTOGATHER,VALIDATEANDANALYSE DATAACROSSSEVENTEENSECTORSSINCEAUGUST20,2010

Housing Transport Energy Water&Sanitation Education Health Social Agriculture,LivestockandFisheries SocialProtectionandLivelihoods Governance Environment EconomicAssessment DisasterRiskManagement IrrigationandFloodManagement PrivateSector&Industries FinancialSector ImplementationArrangements

WB ADB ADB ADB WB ADB ADB WB WB ADB WB WB WB ADB WB WB ADB

Scope
17Sectors CompositionofSectoralTeams MixofWB/ADBstaff RelevantOneUN organizations Bilateralsengagement through20experts

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

THEDNATEAMHASBEENWORKINGWITHTHEGOVERNMENTATALLLEVELS THROUGHOUTTHEPROCESS
DNACoreTeam WB/ADB

Governmentof Pakistan PC,EAD,NDMA

OneUNEarly RecoveryTeam

PCDNA Committee

DNAData CollectionTeam

SectorTeams

ProvincialFocal Points

DNAFieldData CollectionTeam

FieldValidation

UpwardsDataFlow

Districts&Tehsils
SupportFunctions SatelliteImageryteam Institutional ArrangementsTeam DonorCoordination Team CommunicationsTeam DNAWritingTeam

CONTENTS

ObjectiveandMethodology Summaryoffindings

SUMMARYOFDAMAGE+LOSSES
Sector Irrigation Housing Agriculture Transport&Communications Energy LivelihoodsSupport PrivateSector Education Health Water&Sanitation Governance Financial Environment DRM TotalUSDmillions TotalPKRmillions Damages+Losses USDmillions 278 1,588 5,045 1,328 309 282 311 50 109 70 674 12 10,056 854,771

IrrigationandFloodSector

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IRRIGATION,DRAINAGEANDFLOODSECTOROVERVIEWOFDAMAGES
Barrages/ dams (No) Canal systems/ breaches (No) 6(80 locations) Flood Irrigation Embankment schemes / (No) Spurs(No) 58 30 50 66 136 14 1 13systems 7(315 locations) 6main systems 4(25 breaches) 7 87 6main systems 5 8 5 1 55 52 9 Drainage system (No)

Province

AJK Balochistan FATA GilgitBaltistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Punjab Sindh WAPDA 1

IRRIGATIONANDFLOODSECTORPOLICYOPTIONS

BaseCase

Reconstructionwithremodelingofselecteddamaged infrastructure

BuildBack Safer

ReconstructionPLUS measuresforimprovedflood protectionandmanagement: buildingbacksafer forcriticalsettlementsand urbanareaspronetoflashfloodsandriverbankerosion inAJK,GBandKP expansionoftheFloodEarlyWarningSystemtoSwat, PeshawarandDGKhanareas revisitthecountrysoverallfloodmanagement strategy

IRRIGATIONANDFLOODSECTORDAMAGESCOST

Province/Region/Agency AJK Balochistan FATA GilgitBaltistan KhyberPakhtunkhwa Punjab Sindh WAPDA SectorTotal

Damage USDMillions 0.2 29.6 3.0 1.6 68.4 33.1 136.9 4.9 277.6

Housing

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HOUSINGSECTORESTIMATEDDAMAGES Number of houses damaged 6,843 79,720 5,419 3,157 257,294 375,773 879,978 1,608,184 Damage Value USD millions 10 97 4 5 226 322 925 1,588

Province AJK Baluchistan FATA Gilgit Baltistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Punjab Sindh Sector Total

HOUSINGSECTORPOLICYOPTIONS

Support Hazard Resistant Reconstruction to secure future investments

BaseCase: Restoretoprefloodconditions; uniformkatchastandard notrecommended Option2: Restoretofloodresistantstandard. RecommendedforPunjab&Sindhonly

Build-Back-Smarter to optimize costs

Option3: Restoretomultihazardresistant standard.Recommended

Transport&Communication

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TRANSPORTSECTORESTIMATEDDAMAGES
Provinces National Highways Provincial District& Highways Municipal Roads 35 3,540 5 33 402 53 265 Total Railways 793 259 281 1,925 3,125 367 294 1,705 963 349 5,850 2,485 6,277 21,170 Total(Kms)

AJK Baluchistan FATA GilgitBaltistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Punjab Sindh

3,575 2,077 1,257 382 6,511 2,819 8,467 25,088*

1,224Kmrailwaylinedamaged

Telecommunicati Damagesto734kmtransmissionline,284transmissionstationsand 594exchangecentre on Minordamagesto4airports Aviation


*10%ofthetotalroadnetworkisaffectedoutofwhich8%roadsarecompletelydestroyed **Thelengthfiguresshowbothcompletelyandpartiallydamagedroads

TRANSPORTSECTORSTRATEGYANDPOLICYRECOMMENDATIONS

Principlesfor reconstruction

Restorationofconnectivity complementaritieswith

earlyrecovery Strategicplanning floodrisksandtransport infrastructurevulnerability

Strategyfor reconstruction

Fieldverification,needsassessment,disasterriskanalysis

andconditionsurveyspriortocommencement Synergyinfloodprotectionanddesignofnational, provincialandstrategiccommunicationlinks

TRANSPORTSECTORDAMAGECOSTS Province ROADS AJK Baluchistan FATA GilgitBaltistan KhyberPakhtunkhwa Punjab Sindh RAILWAYS TELECOMMUNICATION AVIATION Total 35 38 23 15 338 179 605 60 35 0.7 1,328* Damages USDmillions

*Includesdirectdamagesof$735millionwhicharecalculatedonthebasisofdepreciatedreplacementcostofdamaged infrastructure

Agriculture,Livestock&Fisheries

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AGRICULTURESECTORESTIMATEDDAMAGES
CropArea SmallAnimals Damaged(000 LargeAnimals (incl.sheep, ha) (000head) goal)000 33.1 132.4 7.2 7.9 121.4 746.8 1,043.5 2,092.6 0.3 139.6 6.2 1.3 72.4 2.3 93.7 315.6 0.3 1,036.7 8.4 10.8 67.8 2.5 81.9 1,208.3 Poultry Perished (000) 11.7 625.5 101.2 12.9 621.3 2012 6,895.1 10,279.7

Province AJK Balochistan FATA Gilgit Baltistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Punjab Sindh Total

Watercourses DamagesNos 657 47 n/a 960 1,790 2,598 6,990 13,042

LargeAnimals=Cattle,Buffaloes,Camels,Horse,Donkey Fishery/PondslostinFATAincludedinestimatesforPakhtunkhwa

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AGRICULTURESECTORPOLICYOPTIONS

Compensation Strategy

Crops :Inkindcompensationinformofseeds,fertilizeretc Livestock :Inkindcompensationforpoor Onfarmirrigation:Rehabilitationofdamagedwatercourses Fisheries :Compensatedintheformofsubsidy

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Environment

ENVIRONMENT SECTORSTRATEGY&POLICYRECOMMENDATIONS
Short Term Addressimmediate issuesrelatingto environmental health Contaminateddrinkingwater,

Diseasevectors, Safewastedisposal, Debrisdisposal, Hazardouswastes

Medium to Long Term

Initiatenon structural interventionsto controlfloods

Forestrestoration Riparianvegetationrestoration WetlandRestoration

Technical Assistance

Includefloodprotectionplans,landuseplans,

regulatoryandinstitutionalstrengthening,phased recoveryofnaturalsystems,andothers.

DisasterRiskManagement

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DISASTERRISKMANAGEMENTSECTORSTRATEGYANDPOLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Institutional developmentand capacitybuilding Developclimate changestrategy

Integrationofpreexistingparallelstructuresfor DRMatFederalandProvinciallevelsforsynergizing andincreasedcoordinationandcapacitybuilding Developmentofanationalclimatechangestrategy frameworkbackedbypolicylegislation&capacity buildingofkeyinstitutionsandraisingawareness Restoringandenhancingtheperformanceofkey elementsofthecountrysfloodearlywarning systemanddevelopmentofanationalmultihazard Integrateddecisionsupportandalertsystem Promotingcommunitybaseddisasterrisk management(CBDRM)andeducation increasing awarenessonDRM Earlyinitiationandcompletionofnationalmulti hazardriskmappingtodefinethenationalhazard riskenvironmentandalsodevelopastrategyfor catastropheriskfinancing

Enhanceearly warningsystems
Increasecommunity preparedness& awareness

HazardMapping andrisktransfer mechanisms

DRMSECTORNEEDS
Interventions 1 2 Management study of NDMA and existing parallel DRM structures for assimilation Development of a central MIS System at NDMA with appropriate linkages with Federal, Provincial and District Response Agencies including aid tracking and management systems at all levels Technical assistance and hardware support for NDMA, PDMAs and operationalization of DDMAs in 30 priority districts Social mobilization and training communities on preparedness/response in 30 priority/high-risk districts (including equipment for first responders) Flood hazard mapping GIS-based inundation profiling and of coastal districts Development of a multi-hazard national Integrated Decision Support and Alert System with focus on Flood-related Disaster Management (NIMS) Assessment and identification of potential disaster risk insurance options and development of a strategy for catastrophe risk financing mechanisms and solutions including some piloting Strengthening the capacity of national climate change centers and creating awareness on climate change issues Development and Integration of DRM in education and awareness building at all levels Develop capacity for carrying out various assessments, such as multi-hazard risk assessments and damage and needs assessments (DNA)

3 4 5 6 7 8

9 10 11

InstitutionalArrangements

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INSTITUTIONALARRANGEMENTS PRINCIPLESANDRECOMMENDATIONS Putinplacecoreinstitutionalarrangement(nodalagencies)at federalandprovinciallevels Clarityofrolesinpolicy, Efficient coordination,M&E/reporting,fundflow/managementand Delivery implementations Equity Policy/strategy/criteriaforequitableresourceallocation amongprovinces/regionsbasedondamagessustainedand theassociateddisasterrisksforreconstruction Proactiveprogramandstrategiccommunications(disclosure)on RehabandReconstruction(RR),selectioncriteria,identification methodology,designstandards,procurements,implementation andindependentoversightandmonitoring publicdomain,Public AccountsCommittee,civilsociety Enhancedfiduciarysafeguardsandriskmitigationcapacities andmeasures establishinternalandexternalcontrols countrysystems,specialsystemsforRRprojectsbuildingon whatexiststomeetdonorrequirement/harmonization upfrontchallenge

Transparency

Accountability

INSTITUTIONALARRANGEMENTS PRINCIPLESANDRECOMMENDATIONS Coordination Effectivecoordinationbetweenagencies(donors),sectors andgeographicareas,throughsectoral,national, provincialanddistrictlevelcoordinationfora Fasttracking proceduresandsystemsforRR implementation procurement,approvalsandhiringof humanresourceandconsultants trainingtouseexisting andnewfasttrackingsystems Implementationresponsibility,systemsandcapacities delegatedtothelowestlevelofgovernment more ownershipandaccountability Timelyandeffectiveresponsetosafeguards,grievances andcomplaints tocarrytheadditionalRRload (individualandinstitutional

Indiginizingbest practices

Subsidiarity

Socially responsive

INSTITUTIONALARRANGEMENTS PRINCIPLESANDRECOMMENDATIONS Planningand Budgeting Realisticplanningandbudgeting basictoolstofix responsibilityforachievingresults weakestlink Effectiveinternalandexternal(thirdparty)monitoringand evaluationofRRinputs,outputs,processandresults clearlydefinedrolesatthefederalandprovinciallevelsand foroutsourcingbuiltonandintegratewithwhatwehave

Monitoringand Evaluation

INSTITUTIONALARRANGEMENTS PRINCIPLESANDRECOMMENDATIONS

Questions

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