Estudio Tesis Universidad Delf

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina
Civil Engineering Ports and waterways M.Sc. thesis report G.A.J. Frima Student number: 9247183 Octobre 2004
Thesis commission: Prof. Ir. H. Ligteringen Delft University of Technology Prof. Ing. R.S. Escalante Buenos Aires University, Engineering faculty Ir. R. Groenveld Delft University of Technology Dr. Ir. R. Verhaeghe Delft University of Technology
Preface
This report is the result of my graduation thesis performed at the Civil Engineering faculty of Delft University of Technology (DUT). The curriculum of this course prescribes a thesis performed by the student in the fifth year, with duration of approximately eight months. This study was performed within the section of Ports and Waterways. The objective of this thesis was to study the capacity of the waterway in the Rio de la Plata in Argentina. The capacity study was performed by us of the computer simulation model Harboursim. My special gratitude goes out to Professor Escalante, who accompanied me during my stay in Buenos Aires and to Professor Ligteringen who gave me the opportunity to perform this thesis. To Mr. Groenveld i owe gratitude for the day-to-day assistance at DUT, especially on the subject of Harboursim and modelling. Thanks to Mr. Verhaeghe who assisted me in the end on the subject of economic time-appreciation. In addition I would like to address Mr. Garcia who assisted me during my two months research in Buenos Aires, thank you Sebastian for your support. My special thanks go out to Francisco who showed me the great life in Buenos Aires and invited me for an Argentinean Christmas with his family in Neuquen.
Anton Frima Octobre 2004, Delft University of Technology
Anton Frima
TU Delft, 2004
Summary
The Rio de la Plata waterway is an essential link to numerous ports in Argentina. The waterway provides access to the ports of Buenos Aires and La Plata, and the many ports situated on the Paran river. Argentina and its economy are for a large part depending on the export of grain and agricultural by-products. 75% Percent of all export is transported through the Rio de la Plata to the Atlantic Ocean with destinations all over the world. The Rio de la Plata waterway system has a length of around 350 kilometres and is dredged at certain parts to allow passage of cargo vessels. Two companies, Hidrova S.A. and Riovia S.A., are responsible for the maintenance of the waterway. In return for their efforts cargo ships pay toll. Vessels passing through the waterway are subject to navigation rules. These rules prescribe how ships are to sail the Rio de la Plata and where encounters between ships are prohibited or allowed. To obey the rules present in the waterway, ships are forced to wait at different points. This thesis has simulated the traffic flow in the Rio de la Plata by use of the simulation model Harboursim. This software, developed at Delft University of Technology, is designed to study capacity of wetinfrastructure and ports. Capacity is defined as the maximum traffic intensity still satisfying a certain level of service. The level of service is related to delay experienced by passing cargo ships. The created model describes the traffic in the main channels of the Rio de la Plata. Twenty-five fleets have been distinguished by size, cargo and destination/port. During various studies, the model calculated the average waiting time experienced per fleet when negotiating the Rio de la Plata. The developed model can be used to study the impact of changes in the set-up of the wet-infrastructure. The main subject of study, performed with the model, was the response of the waterway to an increase of traffic intensity. Predictions show that in the future more bulk carriers and container ships are to be expected to travel through the Rio de la Plata. In year 2002 around 1300 bulk carriers travelled the waterway and 875 container carriers. Predictions show that these numbers respectively will increase to 2100 and 1150 in year 2020. The model showed that the mean waiting time per ship, averaged over all fleets, will increase from 134 to 180 minutes on one round-trip through the Rio de la Plata. Considering the total time vessels need to sail the Rio de la Plata, approximately twenty hours per round-trip, the increase of waiting time is considered small and acceptable to vessels. Based on the created model, the Rio de la Plata waterway is able to facilitate passage of cargo vessels with a sufficient service level. A special group of vessels is formed by passenger vessels (cruise-ships) that demand passage through the waterway without encountering cargo vessels. This demand causes cargo vessels to wait long times at waiting areas. By use of the created model the delay time caused by these vessels was studied. The average waiting time per ship increased with 60 minutes when fifty passenger vessels were introduced per year. The passenger vessels are considered an important factor in the traffic flow of cargo vessels. To link economic damage to the delay experienced by a vessel is difficult. This is caused by the players involved in the shipping sector and the complicated financial structure. This thesis sketched a frame for such damage assessment.
Anton Frima
TU Delft, 2004
Table of contents
PREFACE ........................................................................................................................................................2 SUMMARY .....................................................................................................................................................3 TABLE OF CONTENTS .....................................................................................................................................4 1. 1.1 1.2 INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................................7 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................7 PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE RIO DE LA PLATA ..................................................................10 1.2.1 Channel description...............................................................................................................10 1.2.2 Emilio Mitre versus Martin Garcia........................................................................................11 CONCESSIONS ON WATERWAY MANAGEMENT .................................................................................12 1.3.1 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................12 1.3.2 Hidrova S.A..........................................................................................................................12 1.3.3 Riovia S.A. ............................................................................................................................12 1.3.4 Toll income ...........................................................................................................................12 ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE .................................................................................................................13 1.4.1 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................13 1.4.2 Economic situation: present and future .................................................................................13 1.4.3 Grain, oil and by products .....................................................................................................14 1.4.4 Other products .......................................................................................................................15 1.4.5 Container and vehicle transport.............................................................................................15 1.4.6 Passenger ships......................................................................................................................16 SEDIMENTATION AND MAINTENANCE OF THE WATERWAYS .............................................................16 PORTS AND TRAFFIC ........................................................................................................................17 1.6.1 Ports.......................................................................................................................................17 1.6.2 Bulk carriers ..........................................................................................................................18 1.6.3 Container traffic ......................................................................................................................18 1.6.4 Tankers....................................................................................................................................19 1.6.5 General cargo ..........................................................................................................................20 THESIS DESCRIPTION..................................................................................................................21 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................21 PROBLEM DESCRIPTION ...................................................................................................................21 THESIS OBJECTIVE ...........................................................................................................................22 SCOPE OF INTEREST AND INVOLVED PARTIES ..................................................................................22 CAPACITY AND CONGESTION ...........................................................................................................22 METHOD OF APPROACH ...................................................................................................................23 2.6.1 Thesis steps ...........................................................................................................................23 2.6.2 Collection of information ......................................................................................................24 DESCRIPTION HARBOURSIM ....................................................................................................25 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................25 HARBOURSIM LOGIC ........................................................................................................................25 3.2.1 Logic description......................................................................................................................25 3.2.2 Definitions.............................................................................................................................25 3.2.3 Waiting times in reality .........................................................................................................26 COMPONENTS ..................................................................................................................................26 HARBOURSIM FLOW SCHEME ...........................................................................................................28 INPUT ...............................................................................................................................................29 OUTPUT ...........................................................................................................................................29 PLATASIM .......................................................................................................................................31 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................31 SYSTEM BOUNDARIES ......................................................................................................................31
1.3
1.4
1.5 1.6
2. 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6
3. 3.1 3.2
3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 4. 4.1 4.2
Anton Frima
TU Delft, 2004
4.3
CHANNEL DESCRIPTION ...................................................................................................................32 4.3.1 Channels for navigation ...........................................................................................................32 4.3.2 Zona contigua Norte and Sur.................................................................................................33 4.4 PORTS, WAITING AREAS AND BOUNDARY POINTS .............................................................................33 4.5 PREFECTURA NAVAL ARGENTINA ...................................................................................................35 4.6 TRAFFIC FLOW .................................................................................................................................36 4.6.1 Classification by cargo ..........................................................................................................36 4.6.2 Classification by route and destination..................................................................................37 4.6.3 Classification by size and draught .........................................................................................38 4.6.4 Loaded vs. In Ballast .............................................................................................................38 4.6.5 Generated fleets.....................................................................................................................39 4.7 SHIP VELOCITY ................................................................................................................................39 4.8 NAVIGATION RULES .........................................................................................................................39 4.8.1 Rules on encounter ................................................................................................................39 4.8.2 Typical points in Rio de la Plata............................................................................................40 4.8.3 Distance between vessels ......................................................................................................41 4.8.4 Passenger vessels...................................................................................................................41 4.9 EXTERNAL PARAMETERS .................................................................................................................41 4.9.1 Fog.........................................................................................................................................42 4.9.2 Storm .....................................................................................................................................43 4.9.3 Tidal windows .......................................................................................................................44 4.10 PORT SERVICE TIMES...................................................................................................................47 4.10.1 Service times.....................................................................................................................47 4.10.2 Port availability.................................................................................................................47 4.11 SHIP INTER ARRIVAL TIME...........................................................................................................47 4.12 CONCLUSIONS SET-UP PLATASIM ................................................................................................47 4.12.1 Assumptions and conditions .............................................................................................47 4.12.2 Schematic representation Platasim ...................................................................................49 5. 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 PLATASIM ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................51 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................51 BASIC STATE INPUT..........................................................................................................................52 OUTPUT DEVIATIONS BETWEEN SIMULATIONS .................................................................................52 WAITING TIME AT SERVICE POINTS ..................................................................................................53 5.4.1 All service points...................................................................................................................53 5.4.2 Interpretation fleet 4: Batankl................................................................................................55 TOTAL WAITING TIME ANALYSIS ......................................................................................................56 INFLUENCE EXTERNAL PARAMETERS ...............................................................................................58 5.6.1 Fog.........................................................................................................................................58 5.6.2 Storm .....................................................................................................................................58 5.6.3 Tidal windows .......................................................................................................................59 INFLUENCE OF PASSENGER VESSELS ................................................................................................60 INFLUENCE DIFFERENCE SAILING SPEED ..........................................................................................62 CONCLUSIONS..................................................................................................................................63 CAPACITY STUDY RIO DE LA PLATA .....................................................................................65
5.5 5.6
5.7 5.8 5.9 6. 6.1 6.2
INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................65 POINTS OF REFERENCE .....................................................................................................................66 6.2.1 Turn around time.......................................................................................................................66 6.2.2 Velocity vs. sail time................................................................................................................66 6.3 CASE STUDY I: REPEATED 10% INCREASE NUMBER OF SHIPS ..........................................................67 6.3.1 Set-up and results ......................................................................................................................67 6.3.2 Result analysis...........................................................................................................................69 6.3.3. Conclusions..............................................................................................................................71 6.4 CASE STUDY II: CHANGE OF TRAFFIC BASED ON PREDICTIONS TO YR. 2020 ....................................72 6.4.1 Set-up and results ....................................................................................................................72
Anton Frima
TU Delft, 2004
6.4.2 Result analysis..........................................................................................................................73 6.4.3 Conclusion.............................................................................................................................76 6.5 CASE STUDY III: REROUTING ...........................................................................................................78 6.5.1 Set-up and results .....................................................................................................................78 6.5.2 Result analysis..........................................................................................................................79 6.5.3 Conclusions............................................................................................................................79 6.6 CASE STUDY IV: TRAFFIC CHANGE AS PREDICTED WITH PASSENGER SHIPS .....................................81 6.6.1 Set-up and results ..................................................................................................................81 6.6.2 Result analysis.......................................................................................................................81 6.6.3 Conclusions ...........................................................................................................................81 6.7 CAPACITY CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................83 7. 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT ON THE VALUE OF TIME .........................................................84 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................84 DEFINITIONS ....................................................................................................................................85 BULK: CHARTER SHIPPING ...............................................................................................................86 CONTAINER: LINER SHIPPING ...........................................................................................................87 CHARTER RATE ................................................................................................................................88 7.5.1 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................88 7.5.2 Bulk in charter sector ............................................................................................................88 7.5.3 Container in charter sector.....................................................................................................89 7.5.4 Charter party..........................................................................................................................89 7.5.5 Lay-time, demurrage and despatch........................................................................................90 COST OF CONGESTION ......................................................................................................................90 7.6.1 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................90 7.6.2 Approach: delay cost as function of charter-rate ...................................................................91 7.6.3 Discussion .............................................................................................................................91 SHIP OWNER CASH FLOW .................................................................................................................92 7.7.1 Cost classification..................................................................................................................92 7.7.2 Voyage cash flow analysis : an example ...............................................................................93 FUEL CONSUMPTION, SHIP SPEED AND TIME .....................................................................................95 CONCLUSIONS..................................................................................................................................97 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..........................................................................98
7.6
7.7
7.8 7.9 8.
8.1 THESIS OBJECTIVE ..................................................................................................................................98 8.2 CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................................................................98 8.3 RECOMMENDATIONS AND FURTHER STUDIES .................................................................................100 8.4 POSSIBLE WATERWAY ADJUSTMENT ..............................................................................................101 APPENDICES A. REFERENCE MAPS ..........................................................................................................................102 B. FLEETS IN PLATASIM .....................................................................................................................104 C. SEASONAL DISTRIBUTION OF TRAFFIC 2002...................................................................................106 D. EXAMPLE WEEKLY DEPTH INDICATION ..........................................................................................107 E. SQUAT CALCULATION ....................................................................................................................108 F. RECORDED WIND-DIRECTIONS 2002 ..............................................................................................109 G. WIND SET-UP EXAMPLE .................................................................................................................110 H. RECORDED CHANNEL CLOSURES 2000-2003..................................................................................111 I. SAIL TIME - VELOCITY TABLE.............................................................................................................112 J. ERLANG-2 AND WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION ..........................................................................113 K. INTER ARRIVAL DISTRIBUTIONS .....................................................................................................114 L. NAVIGATION RULES PER SECTION ..................................................................................................115 M. DELAY COST CALCULATION ...........................................................................................................116 N. SIMULATION RESULTS CASE I, II, III AND IV .................................................................................117 O. LIST OF REFERENCES......................................................................................................................122 LIST OF TABLES..........................................................................................................................................123 LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................................123
Anton Frima
TU Delft, 2004
1. Introduction
This chapter provides with basic information on Argentina and its economic situation in relation to the Rio de la Plata waterway system used for maritime cargo transport.
1.1 Introduction
Argentina is a country that occupies a vast region in South America with fertile plains and is one of the largest grain producers of the world. Through the ports situated on the Paran river, more than 70% of the grain exports are shipped to Europe, Brazil, Asia, North of Africa and the Middle East. These fluvial ports of Paran are reached from the Atlantic Ocean through Rio de la Plata and the delta of the Paran river by ocean-going vessels. At the end of this section a map is added that shows the essential locations mentioned in this introduction. Appendix A provides with more related maps. Ocean going vessels navigate the Paran river to the loading terminals in the Rosario region, 300 km upstream the Rio de la Plata. In the Rio de la Plata estuary the ports of La Plata and Buenos Aires also harbour ocean-going vessels. Both Paran river and Uruguay river flow into the Rio de la Plata.. Rio de la Plata is the estuary that provides the entrance route to the Hidrova Paraguay-Paran. Hidrova Paraguay-Paran can be defined as a multinational transport system, based on a fluvial transport strategy throughout the system of the same name, in a stretch comprised between Porto Cceres (Brazil, Appendix A) in its northern extreme and Nueva Palmira port (Uruguay) in its southern extreme. With a total length of 3.302 km this system is the principal fairway for the transport of products exported from Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay and a part of Brazil to the final destinations around the world. As mentioned earlier, the Rio de la Plata estuary provides entrance to the important inland Paran river and ports situated on the Rio de la Plata. It can be described as a shallow inland sea with natural depths between one to six meters. The distance from the mouth of the Paran river to the deep ocean waters is approximately 250 kilometres. The Rio de la Plata has a width of 40 kilometres on the upstream side near Buenos Aires and about 200 kilometres where it meets the Atlantic Ocean. The channels in the Rio de la Plata are dredged in order to provide access to the Paran river and ports situated on the Rio de la Plata. Dredging and maintenance of the wet infrastructure is performed by two companies, Hidrova S.A. and Riovia S.A., who receive toll by passing cargo ships. At present two possible navigation routes exist for the ocean-going vessels to enter the delta of the Paran river. One is the Martin Garci channel that links with the Uruguay river and with Paran river through the branches of Paran Guazu and Paran Bravo (location on page 9). The second waterway is the Emilio Mitre channel that enters the Paran river through Paran de la Palmas branch. The Emilio Mitre channel and Paran de la Palmas branch form a part of a larger system under concession with the main purpose of connecting the port of Santa F with the Atlantic Ocean. Martin Garca channel, under another concession contract forms part of this system and plays a fundamental role for certain types of vessels and for future developments. These two channels that link the Rio de la Plata with the Paran river have different features: depths and widths, river morphology, navigation characteristics, maintenance costs, concessionaires of the waterways, regulation authorities and others. Therefore the unique situation is created for the navigation in the area. Sufficient capacity of the waterway system in the Rio de la Plata and the inland rivers is the link to a successful system of waterways for waterborne transport. Being subject to navigation rules related to draught and ship-size, prohibited encounters between vessels, and meteorological conditions, vessels possibly experience delay times during their voyage through the Rio de la Plata. The capacity of the Rio de la Plata waterway system is defined as its capability to provide passage to a given traffic intensity with a certain level service. The level of service is related experienced delay times by traffic when negotiating the Rio de la Plata waterway.
Anton Frima
TU Delft, 2004
Chapter two will describe that this thesis was set up to create a computer model to simulate the traffic flow in the Rio de la Plata waterways and to study the experienced congestion for different traffic intensities. This model will be created by use of Harboursim, simulation software developed at Delft University of Technology. Chapter three describes the logic and set-up behind the Harboursim model. It described the components and processes used to imitate the life of a vessel in the waterway. Chapter four shows how the characteristics of the Rio de la Plata were modelled into Harboursim. It describes what navigation rules are applied and how meteorological conditions influence traffic. The twenty-five fleets that are defined in the model are described. Chapter five investigates the working of the created model and interpreted the results. This chapter helps to understand the results of the studies that were performed in chapter six. Chapter six studies four different cases with the model. The main case was the implementation of the expected traffic intensity in year 2020 and the response of the model. Chapter seven indicates the players and costs involved in shipping. The chapter related the costs of vessel to the delay times that resulted from chapter six. Chapter eight shows the conclusions and recommendations that can be drawn from this report.
Anton Frima
TU Delft, 2004
Figure 1-1 Area map
Km.100
Anton Frima
TU Delft, 2004
1.2 Physical characteristics of the Rio de la Plata 1.2.1 Channel description

The waterway in the Rio de la Plata is build up by seven channels as shown in Figure 1-2. Each channel has its own characteristics on width and depth . Within the picture the kilometre points indicate the distance to the port of Buenos Aires through the waterway. The channels Emilio Mitre and Martin Garcia connect the Rio de la Plata with the Paran river. The extended map of the Paran river is displayed in Appendix A.
Figure 1-2 Rio de la Plata waterway channels The stretch that connects the Atlantic Ocean with Canal de Accesso that leads towards the port of Buenos Aires is 202 kilometres long. This section is formed by Punta Indio, Intermedio, Paso Banco Chico and Rada Exterior. Rada Exterior has an area of natural depth called Zona Comun that allows the anchorage of vessels waiting for various reasons. Ponton Recalada This point situated at km.239 is the entrance/departure point of ocean going vessels. When entering the Rio de la Plata, vessels register to Prefectura Naval Argentina who monitors and directs cargo-ships through the waterway. Water level The reference water level is called 0 LIMB (Limite Inferior de la Media de las Bajamares) translated as the Inferior Limit of the Mean Lower Tides. The water level is influenced by mainly three factors: Flow of the rivers Paran and Uruguay Astronomic tides Wind set-up and set-down. The channel characteristics shown below are indications. Throughout each channel section the values vary.
Anton Frima
TU Delft, 2004
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Channel
From
To 37 48 145 57 81 121 239
Access channel Buenos 0 Aires Port Emilio Mitre Channel 12 Martin Garcia Channel 37 Rada Exterior 37 Paso Banco Chico 57 Intermedio channel 81 Punta Indio channel 121 *Depths are referenced to LIMB Table 1-1 Channel dimensions
Length [km] 37 36 107 20 24 40 118
Width [m] 75-100 110 90 110 150 200 250
Depth [m]* 10.0 10.0 9.4 10.6 10.8 10.7 10.7
varying varying varying varying
Martin Garcia channel The Martin Garcia channels starts at km.37 where Rada Exterior is connected to Canal de Accesso and is orientated towards the north. Finally it ends near Nueva Palmira port (~km.145). This waterway is an international navigation route, regulated by an international treaty between Argentina and Uruguay. The Martin Garcia channel has been deepened by dredging. The total length is around 110 kilometres. The limiting depth of the channel is 32 feet to the reference water level. At km.130 the Martin Garcia channel gets to Paran Guazu, a delta branch and an important access to the Paran river. At km.140 the channel gets to the port of Nueva Palmira and the Paran Bravo branch leading towards the Paran river as well. These two branches leading to the Paran river, due to natural depth, do not need maintenance dredging. Throughout the Martin Garcia channel the bottom mainly consist of soft silt and clay. However some parts exist where granite banks are present. Emilio Mitre channel and Canal de Accesso The second option to reach the Paran river from the ocean is the Canal de Accesso/ Emilio Mitre route. This routes starts at km.37, the point where Martin Garcia is set towards the north. At km.12 this route is separated into the Emilio Mitre channel with north-west orientation and the access channel towards the port of Buenos Aires. Both channels are dredged throughout the year. The mean limitation depth is 34 feet related to the reference level. This route can therefore be used by vessels with a larger draught in reference to the Martin Garcia route. At km.48 the Emilio Mitre channel gets to the Paran de la Palmas branch that provides access to the Paran river. Due to the presence of numerous curves within the Paran de la Palmas, this route can only be used by vessels with a length up to 230 meters. The types of soil present in the bottom of this waterway consist of silt and clay, with no presence of hard soils.
1.2.2 Emilio Mitre versus Martin Garcia

What followed from the previous sections is the fact that important differences exist between both the Emilio Mitre and Martin Garcia routes. These differences are important to understand the traffic flow through the Rio de la Plata. Although the Martin Garcia channel provides with a faster connection towards the Paran river and its ports, its depth is dredged 32 feet. Paran de las Palmas, being more curved than the Bravo and Guazu branches, provides a relative slow connection towards the Paran river when the Emilio Mitre route is used. However the dredged channel depth up to 34 feet allows larger draughts of cargo vessels and therefore the transportation of more tonnage. Also because of the presence of granite banks in parts of the Martin Garcia channels, pilots prefer not to use this channel when sailing towards the ocean in order to prevent accidents. The differences between both routes towards the Paran river and its port creates the situation in which the Martin Garcia route is preferred by unloaded vessels on their way to the inland. The Emilio Mitre route is mainly used by loaded vessels on their way towards the Atlantic Ocean.
Anton Frima
TU Delft, 2004
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1.3 Concessions on waterway management 1.3.1 Introduction

The waterway system of the Rio de la Plata and the Paran river are governed by two concessionaires: Hidrova S.A. and Riovia S.A. After privatisation that started in 1993, both organizations with related (dredging) organizations were set in charge of the management of different parts of the waterway system.
1.3.2 Hidrova S.A.

The waterway within the concession of Hidrova S.A. extends from Punta Indio (km.239) in the external part of the Rio de la Plata up to Santa F (km.584) on the Paran river. The total distance is over 800 kilometres. The concession was signed in 1995. The objectives defined for Hidrova S.A. are as follows: To project and execute the modernization, extension, operation and maintenance of the system of aids to navigation and works of dredging and maintenance of the principal navigation waterway. This waterway is situated between the kilometre 584 of the Paran river and natural deep waters of the exterior River Plate (Rio de la Plata), kilometre 239,1 of the Channel Punta Indio, through the Ingeniero Emilio Mitre channel. Within this concession Hidrova S.A. is empowered to collect toll for the use of the waterway described. The tariff of paid toll is related to the Net Register Tonnage (NRT) transported by a cargo vessel. Hidrova S.A. maintains, in addition to the waterway described earlier, the aids and signs to navigation through the Paran Bravo and Paran Guazu branches.
1.3.3 Riovia S.A.

The concession contract for Riovia S.A. was signed in 1996. The objectives defined for Riovia are as follows: The works, tasks, and other activities related to dredging, buoying and maintenance of the channels of the River Plate (Rio de la Plata) between km37 (Barra del Farralln) and the km.0 of the River Uruguay. The concession contract prescribes the collection of toll by Riovia S.A. for the use of the assigned waterway. The tariff of paid toll is related to the NRT transported by a cargo vessel. A part of the toll collected by Riovia goes to the Argentinean government, because the Guazu and Bravo branches are maintained by Hidrova in contract with the Argentinean government.
1.3.4 Toll income

As an indication, the toll collected from bulk carriers in 2001 are displayed in Table 1-2. The term principal waterway refers to the waterway straight from Ponton Recalada up to Rosario through the Emilio Mitre channel.
Vessels that entered trips shiptype # # Babycape 15 30 Panamax 509 1018 Handymax 233 466 Handysize 466 932 * NRT =Net Register Tonnage [Source: M. Pea Thesis, 2003] Average NRT * ton 42.451 22.609 13.349 9.169 2001 Average design Total toll draught collection feet US$/vessel 54 19.287 43 12.214 37 8.273 33 6.255 in principal Martin waterway Garcia Total tolls US$ US$ US$ 512.100 66.510 578.610 11.184.300 1.249.552 12.433.852 3.359.338 495.880 3.855.218 5.360.562 469.098 5.829.660
Table 1-2 Toll income 2001
Anton Frima
TU Delft, 2004
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1.4 Economic perspective 1.4.1 Introduction

Although the world economy is not subject to study in this thesis, this section sketches a frame that shows the importance of maritime transport, both for the world economy as well as the economy of Argentina. Over the past years, despite the troublesome economic situation, the world maritime transport has shown an increase in handled tonnage. The table below shows how for the year 2000 the import-export ratios were distributed over regions. Typically is the export character of Latin America. Exports Imports Total region Asia 1,395,048,612 2,106,116,904 3,501,165,517 Europe 673,405,518 1,421,793,751 2,095,199,269 North America 536,183,767 910,728,180 1,446,911,947 Latin America and Caribean 948,292,825 313,012,648 1,261,305,473 Persion Gulf 832,325,214 76,224,353 908,549,566 Other 829,195,627 386,575,726 1,215,771,353 Total 5,214,451,562 5,214,451,562 [source:Anuario Portuario y Maritimo 2003, Puerto Buenos Aires] Table 1-3 World exchange 2002 in metric tons The world shipment of cargo by percentage of tonnage is heavily dominated by maritime transportation as can be seen in Figure 1-3.
9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Metric ton in millions
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Maritime 4503,3 4673,6 4673,6 5214,5 5214,5 5341,2 5483 Air Other 12,6 13,5 13,6 2311 14,6 15,4 15,9 16,8
2220,2 2311
2708,1 2804,4 2818,8 2880,6
[source:Anuario Portuario y Maritimo 2003, Puerto Buenos Aires] Figure 1-3 World transport in metric tons by mode of transport
1.4.2 Economic situation: present and future

Considering the current problematic world economy and its uncertainty it is typical to see from Figure 1-3 in the previous section that from 1996 up to 2002 the world maritime transport has increased or remained equally. Information provided by Hidrova shows predictions on the traffic intensity of the Rio de la Plata waterway. Table 1-4 shows that both an increase of bulk carriers and container carriers can be expected. The number of tanker vessels is predicted not to change, and the larger general cargo vessels will decrease in number.
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TU Delft, 2004
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Predicted number of vessels Design draught range
Type
year 2005
year 2010
year 2015
year 2020
147 15-32 147 147 32-38 623 718 825 >38 665 765 879 523 15-32 523 523 Tanker 32-38 276 276 276 >38 144 144 144 238 15-32 238 238 Container 32-38 229 255 284 >38 410 458 509 685 15-32 685 685 General cargo 32-38 260 203 151 and others >38 87 68 50 [Source: Proyectado desde estudio de trfico 2001 HDRV/055/2002 ("predicted based on the 2001 traffic")] Table 1-4 Predicted number of vessel to year 2020
Bulk
147 947 1010 523 276 144 238 316 567 685 104 35
Based on these predicted figures, this thesis will perform simulations to study the capability of the Rio de la Plata to facilitate the passage of vessels.
1.4.3 Grain, oil and by products

Figures on imported and exported tonnage are abstracted from Anuario; Portuario y Martimo 2003, XXIII Edicion Puertos Argentinos y del Mercosur. The most important export products of Argentina are grains, by-products and oils. The grains mainly consist of wheat, maize and soybean. The by-products are the residues after pressing oil-seeds, like sunflower or soybean. The figures on export for the past few years of grains, oils and by products are given in . From Table 1-5 it can be seen that the past few years the exported volume has increased.
grain by-products oil 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 29,491,657 12,814,660 4,609,959 2002 25,084,485 18,531,689 4,741,287 values in tonnage not further specified total 27,369,044 32,507,339 42,068,984 37,649,984 42,766,237 46,916,376 48,357,461
Table 1-5 Exported volumes of grain, by-products and oil in tons by Argentina Destinations The most important export destinations of Argentinean agricultural products are Brazil, China, Iran and the European Union. For maize, Chile is ranked as the principal buyer. Also very important are the volumes
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exported to Japan, South Korea, Egypt, Peru, Malaysia, Spain, Portugal, Jordan, Algeria and Iran. Argentina is the second world largest maize exporter after the United States. From the exported soybean, fifty percent of the production is sent to the European Union, with Italy, Spain, The Netherlands and Denmark as the principal destinies. Argentina is the world largest exporter of soybean pellets. Approximately eighty percent of the exported agricultural products are shipped at some port on the Paran river, mainly at ports near the Rosario area.
1.4.4 Other products

Other products are shipped through the Rio de la Plata. Paper Steel Fertilizer Wood Iron/ore Sand Fruits The products are shipped by bulk carriers.
1.4.5 Container and vehicle transport

Next to the agricultural products exported by Argentina, an important role is played by containerised transport. The main container port in Argentina is situated in the capital Buenos Aires (km.0) on the Rio de la Plata. The Buenos Aires port is the 77th port in the world, when ranked on the number of containers handled in the year 2002. With a number of 745.600 TEUs in 2002 this places the port fourth within LatinAmerica behind Panam, Brasil, Jamaica and Bahamas. As a reference, the port of Hong Kong handled over more than 19 million TEUs in 2002. The port of Rotterdam handled over more than 6.5 million TEUs in the same year. Although
Position 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 77 Port Hong Kong Singapour Pusan Shanghai Kaohsiung Shenzen Rotterdam Los Angeles Hamburg Antwerp Buenos Aires Country Teus 2002 China 19,144,000 Singapour 16,800,000 South Korea 9,453,356 China 8,611,890 Taiwan 8,493,000 China 7,613,754 Netherlands 6,515,449 USA 6,105,864 Germany 5,373,999 Belgium 4,777,151 Argentina 745,658
Table 1-6 Container ports in the world ranked 77th within the world, the number of container carriers towards the Buenos Aires port varies around 750 (for 2002) and is therefore an important party in the waterway occupation of the Rio de la Plata. As well as the agricultural products, the number of handled containers by Buenos Aires has changed over the past year. As an indication Table 1-7 shows the number of TEUs handled by the port of Buenos Aires from 1996 to 2002. The economic set back experienced in Argentina in 2001 can clearly be seen.
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year TEUs 1996 779,554 1997 1,029,569 1998 1,181,970 1999 1,079,304 2000 1,102,189 2001 962,965 745,600, 2002 Table 1-7 Number of handled TEUs by Buenos Aires
A new player in the shipping of containers is the Zarate port situated at km.100 in the Paran river. Next to its car terminal, new facilities have been created with a capacity to handle 50 thousand TEUs annually.
1.4.6 Passenger ships

Each year over fifty passenger vessels visit the Buenos Aires port. Foreign tourists with a high economic level enter Argentina through this port. In 2001 over 80.000 tourists visited Buenos Aires. An important aspect of passenger ship is the fact that they demand passage through the Rio de la Plata waterway without the encounter of cargo vessels. Considering the length of the waterway sections, this feature forces cargo-vessels to wait for a long time on occasion. The visits of passenger ships to Buenos Aires takes place from October to March. How the number of passenger ships that annually visits Buenos Aires will develop in the future is uncertain. Although the world-population increases, the economic situation and threat of terrorism have their effect on tourism.
1.5 Sedimentation and maintenance of the waterways

What can be seen from the satellite picture on the front page is the large amount of sedimentation that colours the water in the Rio de la Plata. The shallow estuary and its origin rivers Paran and Uruguay river are subject to dredging activities throughout the year to upkeep sufficient depth for cargo vessels. This section briefly indicates the volume dredged on a yearly basis and estimations for the costs related to this dredging. Indications on dredged volumes and related costs on a yearly basis are presented below. Dredged volumes Martin Garcia channel The estimated mean annual volume of sediment dredged within the Martin Garcia channels various around 6.2 million cubic metres. The volume dredged over the past years is shown in the table below. Studies have shown that the dredged volume per year is approximately the same as the sediment supply.
dredged volume* [m3] year 1999 5.9 2000 6.9 2001 5.9 2002 6.0 * in million Table 1-8 Martin Garcia channel dredging volumes
The largest part of this volume (80%) is dredged within the water section km.39 to km.66 within the channel (Figure 1-4). This section is orientated perpendicular to the current in the Rio de la Plata. The branches Guazu and Bravo have natural depth and are not dredged.
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Figure 1-4 stretch km.39 to km.66 subject to dredging Emilio Mitre channel The Emilio Mitre channel is situated in an area of very shallow water. The mean annual sedimentation between the period of 1997 to 2002 is 6.9 million m3, 0.7 million more than the mean volume dredged from Martin Garcia channel.
1.6 Ports and traffic

This section briefly indicates how the traffic through the Rio de la Plata is build in size, cargo and destination. The schematisation of traffic for simulation purposes is described in chapter four of this report.
1.6.1 Ports
Over more than fifty ports are situated throughout Argentina. For the traffic that navigates through the Rio de la Plata, 95% of all vessels are serviced by the following ports. The location of the ports can be found on page 9. San Lorenzo (and San Marin) The complex of San Lorenzo port (including San Martin) is situated at 448 km from Buenos Aires. The port is used for the loading of grains, vegetable oils and agricultural by-products. Rosario Rosario port is situated at km.420 in the Rio Paran. The port assists the traffic of agricultural bulks, fertilizers, vegetable oils, steel products, sugar and fruits, minerals, cars and containers. San Nicols Situated at 343 kilometres from Buenos Aires, the port of San Nicolas imports a series of products. Raw materials for the steel industry: Iron ore, minerals, scrap and mineral coal. Also imported are fertilizers. Exported commodities are wood, vehicles and general cargo. Zrate Port Zrate port is port terminal of national capitals, which has specialized in the movement of solid bulk such as fertilizers, minerals of coal, paper pulp, sand, wood and chemicals for the soap and glass industry. A carterminal and a container terminal are also situated at Zrate. Zarate port is situated approximately 100 kilometres from Buenos Aires. Campana Port Situated at 95 kilometres from Buenos Aires is the Campana port. Export products from Campana port consist of steel pipes, wood, hydrocarbons, chemical products, fruits, general load, raw petroleum and fuels. Nueva Palmira The port of Nueva Palmira mainly focussed on the transportation of agricultural products. This port is situated in Uruguay. Buenos Aires and Dock Sud Both situated near the Argentinean capital, these ports handle a large variety of products. The main function is the transhipment of containers. In addition its port has a chemical section and a passenger terminal for cruise-ships. The Dock Sud port is situated a couple of kilometres to the right of Buenos Aires and has a separate access channel.
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La Plata port Compared to many other ports La Plata port occupies a privileged position. The port is located close to the Atlantic Ocean and has space to develop new port facilities. Handled cargo consist of oil and chemical products.
1.6.2 Bulk carriers

Within 2002 approximately 1250 bulk carriers entered the Rio de la Plata at Ponton Recalada, coming from the Atlantic Ocean. Mainly directed towards the Rosario area these vessels navigate the Martin Garcia on their inland direction and leave through Emilio Mitre towards the Atlantic Ocean. To indicate the size of bulk carriers, the ships that passed at arrival point Ponton Recalada in 2002 have been divided in groups by their design draught (Figure 1-5). In total around 1250 bulk carriers sailed through Rio de la Plata coming from the ocean. A classification is used to address the different sized vessels. The classification as shown below can be used as reference figures (Table 1-9). The design draught is reference to the channel depths within the Rio de la Plata cause the largest part of bulk carriers not to leave the Rio de la Plata fully loaded. These vessels complete their cargo (top-off) at others ports in the region, for instance in Brazil.
Bulk 400 300 200 100 0 0- 15- 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 5015 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 design draught range [FT]
Figure 1-5 Design draught bulk carriers at Ponton Recalada in 2002

Design draught [FT] Length over all [m] (LOA) Beam [m] DWT* [tons] min max min max min max min max Handysize 30 35 150 200 20 27 20,000 35,000 Handymax 35 39.9 170 210 27 31 35,000 50,000 Panamax 40 47 190 250 32 33 50,000 80,000 Baby Capesize 47 57 250 270 39 43 100,000 150,000 * DWT: (dead weight tonnage) gives the mass of cargo, crew, fresh water, passengers etc. (Ligteringen,2000)
Table 1-9 Bulk carrier classification
number of ships
1.6.3
Container traffic
Earlier sections already described the role of Buenos Aires port and the upcoming role of Zarate port for container transport. The 850 container vessels that arrived at Ponton Recalada in 2002 have a mean design draught around 42 feet ( Figure 1-6).
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container
number of ships 400 300 200 100 0 15- 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 5020 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 design draught range [FT] number of ships
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 100- 125- 150- 175- 200- 225- 250- 275125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 Length over all [m ]
Figure 1-6 Size indication container carrier at Ponton Recalada 2002 The corresponding length distribution is roughly indicated in the same figure. Because the design draught for certain vessels exceeds the channel depths in the Rio de la Plata, these vessels are not loaded to their full capacity. The container carrier have increased in size over the years. [Source: Ligteringen, 2000] Table 1-10 shows a classification by generation. Class TEU DWT capacity (average) 1st generation 750-1100 14.000 2nd generation 1500-1800 30.000 3rd generation 2400-3000 45.000 4th generation 4000-4500 57.000 Post Panamax 4300-4600 54.000 Jumbo >6000 80.000 [Source: Ligteringen, 2000] Table 1-10 Container carrier characteristics LOA [m] 180-200 225-240 275-300 290-310 270-300 310-350 Draught [ft] 29.5 37.7 41 41 39.4 46 Width [m] 27 30 32 32.3 38-40 42.8
1.6.4
Tankers
Where container and bulk traffic is mainly directed towards ports across the Atlantic Ocean, numerous tankers operate within the confinement of the Rio de la Plata and the Paran river. Both figures below represent show the ship size (design draught and LOA) for the tankers that passed at Ponton Recalada in 2002.
tanker
number of ships 400 300 200 100 0 0-15 1520 2025 2530 30- 3535 40 4045 4550 5055 number of ships 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 50- 75- 100- 125- 150- 175- 200- 225- 25075 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 length over all [m ]
design draught range [FT]
Figure 1-7 Size indication tankers at Ponton Recalada 2002 The vessels with a draught between 15 and 25 feet operate mainly within the Rio de la Plata and the Paran river.
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1.6.5
General cargo
Size indications for the general cargo carriers that passed Ponton Recalada in 2002 are given below. General cargo ships transport non-containerised commodities such as steel, wood, paper and machinery.
General cargo
number of ships number of ships 250 200 150 100 50 0 0-15 1520 2025 2530 3035 3540 4045 4550 200 150 100 50 0 5075 75- 100- 125- 150- 175- 200- 225- 250100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 length over all [m ]
design draught range [FT]
Figure 1-8 Size indication general cargo carriers at Ponton Recalada 2002
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2. Thesis description
2.1 Introduction
Chapter one has described the Rio de la Plata waterway system and its role in the Argentinean economy. This chapter describes how this thesis was set-up and performed in relation to the traffic flow in the Rio de la Plata estuary (Figure 2-1). Navigation channel
Figure 2-1 Rio de la Plata estuary and channel
2.2
Problem description
The Rio de la Plata waterway system fulfils a vital function in the import and export of cargo in and out of Argentina. The complex system of the Argentinean wet infrastructure with a length of over more than 1000 km is build up by numerous waterway sections. Each section with its own characteristics allows ships to pass if a number of rules are met. Because the Rio de la Plata estuary and its channels is the heart of all wet traffic, it is important to understand its capability to facilitate certain traffic intensity. In other words, it is important to know if the wet infrastructure is capable to provide passage for a number of vessels without reaching a limit of congestion. Congestion is defined as waiting time experienced by traffic (ships) when using the wet infrastructure. Each waterway system, at operational level, inflicts a certain congestion to passing traffic. Since each ship carries his own characteristics such as destination, route, size and cargo, the accepted level of congestion is different for each user. To study the capacity of the waterway system, use can be made of computer software in order to simulate the traffic flow. Since the behaviour of traffic is build up by numerous random factors (e.g. arrival patterns, weather conditions) it is not possible to analyse the level of congestion by hand calculations. The waterway is build up by stretches each with their own navigation rules. The visiting vessels each carry their own characteristics on size, speed and destination. This complexity can well be build up in simulation programming languages. At present, no simulation model has been developed in order to simulate traffic and study possible points of congestion for the Rio de la Plata. The problem to be solved within this thesis can be defined as follows: At present no capacity studies have been performed by use of simulation software on the Rio de la Plata waterway system. No model has been set up to study congestion behaviour of the Rio de la Plata and estimate the experienced waiting times.
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2.3
Thesis objective
Based on the problem described above the following thesis-objective was set: To perform capacity studies for the Rio de la Plata waterway system by use of the computer simulation model Harboursim. To analyse the traffic flow of cargo-vessels through the different channels as they are used in present. To analyse the traffic navigation rules that cargo-vessels are bound to during their stay in the studied waterway system. To analyse traffic behaviour to external conditions (storm, fog etc). Describe the traffic flow of cargo vessels in simulation model Harborsim. Performs studies by use of the created model, implementing possible changes in traffic intensity in the Rio de la Plata and studying their influences on the traffic flow. Capacity studies performed by simulation model Harboursim relate the waiting-time of vessels experienced in the Rio de la Plata to the traffic intensity (number of ships per unit of time). Capacity definition: Capacity is the maximum traffic intensity that can be facilitated in the waterway with a certain level of service. The level of service can be expressed in waiting time (delay time) experienced by traffic when using the waterway system. Whether a level of service is high, low, acceptable or unacceptable is interpreted differently by each user (ship/port). Further thoughts on capacity and congestion are given in section 2.5.
2.4
Scope of interest and involved parties
This thesis was not performed in relation to one specific party with specific interest. It was defined, under supervision of the University of Buenos Aires (UBA) and Delft University of Technology (DUT), as a scientific approach towards the performance of the Rio de la Plata wet infrastructure. The set up was not designed to improve the financial situation of one of the many parties that are involved in the use and exploitation of the area. The performance of Rio de la Plata is of essence to many players, from large to small. The direct players are the ports that export and import through the Rio de la Plata and the Paran river. Both have interest in a fluent flow of traffic through the area. Strongly related to these ports and their moved cargo are both the concessionaires that receive toll and in return maintain the wet infrastructure. Both concessionaires are related to the governments of Argentina and Uruguay. In its widest scope, the results of this thesis are of interest to the economic development of Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. If the Rio de la Plata waterway system cannot facilitate passage of maritime and fluvial transport, this will impact the economic performance of these countries.
2.5
Capacity and congestion
This section is partially based on the paper A Survey of Waterway Capacity and Policy Issues, by S.M. Neill (April the18th 2001). A large variety of definitions for capacity exist in the sector of transportation. Indications are stated below, which relate to the definition mentioned earlier. The maximum potential volume of movement or throughput. The maximum volume in this expressed as cars/day or ships per day etc. In the paper by the same author, the PIANC definition is mentioned as well. This definition is based on terms of: Throughput (vessels per unit of time) Ship waiting times
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Ship turn around times
On the subject of capacity and congestion of the waterway, questions can be formulated from different perspectives: Does the current waterway system have the capacity, coverage, and flexibility to serve current patterns of demand? If not, who is unserved or underserved? Does the current waterway system have the capacity, coverage, and flexibility to service future patterns of demand? If not, who will be left behind? Does the waterway system capacity support or degrade other national interests? (environmental quality, economic growth, national security, surface transportation, congestion, land use, quality of life) The most clear link between capacity and congestion is seen in the delay time experienced by passing units. The approach in this thesis is based on that principle.
2.6
Method of approach
2.6.1 Thesis steps

The method of approach that was applied in this thesis consists of the following steps.
Step 1. Boundary definition Question What area is to be studied? How does traffic navigate through the studied area and by what rules? How many vessels with what size and cargo travel towards different destinations? How can the traffic flow be best simulated? Does the model create output that can be accepted? What congestion is experienced with a specific traffic intensity? How does a delay time of X minutes inflict economic damage to what party? Content Determine the waterway to be studied and simulated by Harborsim Collection of navigation rules, meteorologic influences and external parameters Determine the different routes, ports and wateways used by ship with different sizes and cargo Create model with results of step 1,2 and 3 Interpretation and study of results created by model possible validation and verification Studies by use of created model for predicted traffic intensity up to year 2020 Study to the parties involved in shipping and indications on daily costs and rates
2. Traffic behaviour
3. Traffic analysis
4. Implementation
5. Model analysis
6. Capacity study
7. Appreciation of time
Ad. Step 1
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During this step, meetings took place with experts on the Rio de la Plata traffic in order to determine the area and wet infrastructure to be studied within this thesis. The details on the specific boundaries used are described in chapter four with accompanying assumptions and considerations. Ad. Step 2 To be able to simulate traffic with accuracy (close to reality) is it imperative to understand the rules that direct the flow of traffic. These rules consist of all parameters than influence a vessel on his voyage from the point of origin towards his destination (navigation rules, weather conditions, pilot decisions, hydrologic conditions, directions by authority/coast guard). This step consists of the collection of navigation rules that are present in the studied waterway and interviews with pilots and the coastguard that assist vessels during navigation. Ad. Step 3 In this step a quantitative analysis of ships visiting the different ports by using different routes is made. Fleets are distinguished by size, route, cargo and destination. Ad. Step 4 Within this step, the collected information from step 1 to 3 is translated into a computer model. By use of software it is tried to simulate the behaviour of vessels in a realistic manner. Ad. Step 5 The model that resulted from step 4 is now reviewed based on the results it generates. If possible, the model is validated based on the real-life results it is trying to simulate. Ad. Step 6 With the created model studies are performed. Predicted traffic intensities can be inserted into the model. Simulation by the model is used to analyse how the system and its traffic flow respond to different traffic intensities. Ad. Step 7 A perspective on the economic value of time within the shipping sector is given. The involved parties in shipping and the role they play is described.
2.6.2 Collection of information

In order to collect information on the first three steps described in the previous section, Buenos Aires was visited. During meetings with personnel from Hidrova S.A. , Prefectura Naval Argentina and pilots operating in Rio de la Plata, insight was gained on the behaviour of vessels in the channels. In short the collected information consisted of the following: Navigation rules for waterway sections in the Rio de la Plata Data on meteorological events of influence to traffic flow Reported traffic in 2002 describing destination, cargo, size and the departure time at ports and check points. Predictions on traffic intensity for 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 Tide-predictions and water level recordings for 2002 measured at several points in the Rio de la Plata.
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3. Description Harboursim
3.1 Introduction
As a tool to perform capacity studies on ports and waterway systems, the program Harboursim was created at Delft University of Technology (DUT). Harboursim is a simulation model based on the simulation language Prosim. The model covers the wet infrastructure of a system build up by ports and waterways. It simulates the vessel movements in the area. In general, the capacity of a waterway system is dependent on the dimensions of the area, tidal conditions, traffic intensities, navigation rules and terminal facilities. Prosim is based on a process-orientated method. The behaviour of all relevant components and the interactions between the components are described in different modules of the model. This chapter describes the idea Harboursim is based on. The various components, input files, output files and application possibilities are explained. In chapter four it is described how Harboursim was modified to the model Platasim, describing the traffic in the Rio de la Plata area. Note: The book Manual model Harboursim, a tool to estimate port capacities ( Ir. R. Groenveld, April 2004) describes the complete set up, working and schemes of Harboursim.
3.2
Harboursim logic
3.2.1 Logic description

Harboursim generates at a defined rate various numbers of ships, each ship with their own characteristics. After entrance in the system, the ship is placed in a queue quay, awaiting the availability of its destination quay. Once the destination quay is available, the ship is placed queue waterway. At this point is checked whether the waterway to the destination quay can be sailed without conflict of navigation rules. Since the encounter between vessels is not always allowed in all sections of the waterway, this check has to be performed. If the waterway to the destination quay cannot be sailed due to conflict, the model tells the ship to hold and checks if other ships in queue waterway can sail since they may be subject to different rules. The model keeps re-checking the ships in queue waterway and their possibilities to sail. After a ship has received green light to sail towards its port of destination he makes reservations in the different sections of the waterway for the time he will occupy them. After arrival at the destination quay, the ship waits a certain service time. After this time, the ship is placed in the queue departure. Placed in this list, the model checks again if the ship can sail to its next destination without conflicts. This system is repeated for the ship until it leaves the model. When a ship leaves the model, his registered data on experienced waiting-times are added to the results of the simulation run. Harboursim is used to calculate waiting times caused by quay-occupation, waterway-occupation and hydrologic influences such as current, waves and water levels. This thesis, as further described in chapter four, will mainly focus on waiting-times caused by waterway-occupation.
3.2.2
Definitions
For good explanation of Harboursim and the use of the model, some definitions are clarified: Encounter: cross and overtake Ships can encounter (meet) each other in two manners: cross and overtake. Cross is defined in this thesis as the situation in which two ships encounter each other sailing in opposite direction. Overtake is the situation in which two meeting ships are sailing in the same direction with a different velocity causing one ship to pass the other. Stretch and section These definitions are used to describe what part of the waterway is used by a ship.
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Stretch is used to address the complete waterway between two points where a ship is idle (port or waiting area). Each stretch is split up into sections in order to be able to define traffic rules for different parts of a stretch.
3.2.3
Waiting times in reality
The description of the logic behind Harboursim showed that ships are checked at points in the model to determine whether they can proceed on their voyage without conflict. If a conflict will occur (e.g. crossing in section where crossings are prohibited) the ship is told to wait at the check point. Where the model simulates this delay as a full stop at the check point, in reality this delay is possibly build up by a reduction of sailing speed. Contact with coastguard, Vessel Traffic System or other monitoring authorities will provide vessels with speed recommendations in order to proceed on their voyage without conflicts. Of course waiting times cannot always be compensated by velocity reduction. Cargo ships are bound to a minimum sail velocity for safety reasons. When speed reduction cannot prevent a conflict, a vessel might be forced to drop anchor. Acceleration The principal of creating a waiting time by sailing a certain section with reduced speed in reference to the preferred speed is clear. It can however be expected that in reality vessels will receive directions to increase their velocity in order to prevent the occurrence of conflicting situations. If a vessel/pilot has to chose between slowing down within a section or increase speed, the latter seems more profitable. Harboursim at present is not capable to adjust speed or look into the future. Simulating possible ship accelerations in order to avoid conflicting situations can therefore not be simulated.
3.3
Components
The model Harboursim is build up by modules that describe the behaviour of various components. Components are parts of the model to which specific characteristics can be attached, for instance a ship, quay or VTS (vessel traffic system). Components can be permanently, temporarily, single or multiple. Permanent components are present during the whole simulation. Temporal components are generated, than exist for a certain period in the model and in the end are terminated. Single components are components of which only one exists in the model, where from multiple components more than one can be present in the model. E.g. a ship is a temporal multiple component; more than one exist and with various characteristics. They are generated to walk a certain path and terminated after a ' life' in the model. The following modules are written in Harboursim and are the corner stones on which the model is build. Main Module Main starts the model. Main opens files that will be used for input and out. From the input-files data is read into the memory, e.g. waterway configuration and ship data. Hereafter Main starts the real simulation by activating the ship-generators. Input files tell Main how many runs to simulate and the duration of each run. For Harboursim the duration of one run is mostly set to one year. After simulation Main tells all running processes to hold and creates output files containing registered data that have been stored by other modules. Termprocess The module Termprocess describes the process of the terminals where ships are serviced. In this module the available quay length is monitored and changed after departure or arrival of ships. Genprocess The module Genprocess describes how generators create ships with sets of characteristics (fleets). Following a inter arrival pattern the ships are created. These patterns are described by statistical functions that can be specified for each fleet. Qmasterprocess In the module Qmasterprocess the quaymaster checks the availability of sufficient quay length for requesting ships. The quaymaster checks if any of the ships in queue 'quay' can be received at his quay of destination. VTS_process
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This module checks tidal conditions and traffic situations for vessels requesting to sail a certain stretch. Alterations of Harboursim for this thesis will allow VTS_process to check weather conditions. Tide process This module describes the tidal conditions (water levels, currents) in the model. This process can relate tidal windows for vessels to the waterlevel. These tidal windows consist of time-frames is which vessels are allowed to sail because the tide provides them with sufficient waterdepth.
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3.4
Harboursim flow scheme
The flow scheme shown in Figure 3-1 shows the main procedure executed by Harboursim. In addition, Figure 3-2 shows are more detailed scheme on the 'life' of ship when walking through the model. If a ship is scheduled to visit more than one port, steps will be repeated as shown by the loop-arrow.
main
t=0 start simulatie open in- and output files activate ship generators create terminal operators create VTS's wait simulation time
ship generator x
draw inter arrival time IAT for fleet x create ship A with characteristics activate created ship A
ship A
take place in anchorage take place in quay queue activate terminal operator of destination terminal terminal operator check quay availability available: activate ship A not availabe: check quay queue for other ships
ship A
VTS Y
check if ship can sail to destination without conflict possible: make reservations waterway sections activate ship A not possible: check waterway queue for other ships
ship A
leave anchorage and waterway queue register departure time travel waterway sections (arrival at destination) wait service time at destination enter departure queue activate VTS Z VTS Z check if ship can sail to destination without conlict possible: make reservations waterway sections activate ship A not possible: check departure queue for other ships
ship A
leave departure queue travel waterway sections leave system repeated many times for all generated ships
main
after simulation time: end simulation write output to output file close all
Figure 3-1 Harboursim flow scheme
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repeat if visiting more ports
leave quay queue take place in queue 'waterway' activate VTS Y
ship actions generator create ship ship take place in quay queue 1
actions others terminal operator check availability quay when available
time
waiting time caused by quay occupation
ship leave quay queue take place in wateway queue
vts check if ship can sail to quay without conflict when possible waiting time caused by waterway occupation
ship departs leave queue waterway travel through sections to destination
sail time
ship enter port/terminal wait service time at quay
4 service time
ship enter departure queue
vts check if ship can sail to next destination without conflict when possible
ship depart leave departure queue travel through sections to final destination ship leave system
waiting time cause by waterway occupation
sail time
Note: Step 1 to 5 are repeated if more than one port is visited Figure 3-2 Ship flow scheme
3.5
Input
The input of data in Harboursim is done by the use of three input-files. Portdata This file is used to describe all points where ships are serviced when they exist in the model. The name of all terminals are specified as well as the length of different quays. From this file the model also reads the duration of a simulation run and how many runs are to be performed. Shipdata All characteristics of the fleets to be generated are defined in this file such as: destination, arrival patterns, terminals to be visited and service times at terminals. This file determines how many ships belonging to a fleet are generated. This file also prescribes in what rate vessels are generated and how the time between the arrival of vessels varies. Rulesdata This large file describes for each fleet what stretches are to be sailed and how long each section is occupied in minutes. For each section this file prescribes the rules for cross or overtake between the different fleets.
3.6
Output
Through the output file, Harboursim writes results of simulation runs to a text-file. Throughout the simulation, records are kept on the following: Total number of ships generated by the model per fleet per Mean waiting time per fleet per terminal/port/waiting area Mean waiting time on arrival (anchorage area) Occupation of quays
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Occupancy of anchorage areas Occupancy of waterway sections
This thesis will focus on the waiting times created by occupation of the waterway sections and weather conditions. The occupation characteristics of quays is therefore not of interest.
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4.
Platasim
4.1 Introduction
After the description of the simulation-model Harboursim in chapter 3, this chapter shows how the behaviour of traffic was translated into Harboursim. Some adaptations have been made to Harboursim. The adjusted model will be referred to as Platasim. In the various sections assumptions are implemented. An overview of assumptions is given at the end of this chapter. Note: Nautical descriptions of the Rio de la Plata use distance-references to the port of Buenos Aires. Distances are expressed in kilometres measured through the channels and rivers.
4.2 System boundaries

As the first step to study the capacity of the Argentinean inland waterway system, the boundaries for Platasim were set at points where cargo traffic leaves and enters the Rio de la Plata (Figure 4-1). Behaviour of traffic with inland destinations outside the studied area is simply represented by a fictive service-point (port) created on the model boundary. The implementation of ports and other service-points is described in section 4.4.
RIO DE LA PLATA
Figure 4-1 Platasim described area Extra notion should be put to the choice of boundary. The extensiveness of the Rio de la Plata and the connecting Paran river and Uruguay river does not allow to model traffic in all wet infrastructure within the scope of this thesis. The behaviour of traffic further inland than the Rio de la Plata is not modelled. Future studies should investigate if the capacity of the inland waterway will be a point of concern to the traffic flow.
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4.3 Channel description 4.3.1 Channels for navigation

The channels used by ships to sail the Rio de la Plata can be divided in to seven channels, which are described in Table 4-1 and drawn in Figure 4-2. As an indication, values for width and depth of the channels are given. These values are indications and vary throughout the channel. The locations of the channel can be found in section 4.2. Channel Length Width [m] [km] Buenos Aires channel 0 12 12 75 Canal de Accesso 12 37 25 110 Emilio Mitre Channel 12 48 36 110 Martin Garcia Channel 37 130 93 90 Rada Exterior 37 57 20 110 varying Paso Banco Chico 57 81 24 150 varying Intermedio channel 81 121 40 200 varying Punta Indio channel 121 239 118 250 varying Depths are referenced to zero level (0.8 metres below mean tide) Table 4-1 Rio de la Plata channels From To Depth [m]* 9.5 10.5 10.0 9.4 10.6 10.8 10.7 10.7
Emilio Mitre versus Martin Garcia (repeated from chapter 1) A typical feature of the Rio de la Plata waterway system, as it is used at present by cargo traffic, is caused by the difference in bathymetric of the Emilio Mitre and Martin Garcia channel and their connections to the inland. Where both channels allow traffic in both directions and provide passage towards the Paran River, an important difference in use exists. The Martin Garcia channel allows passage of outbound loaded vessels up to a draught of 31 feet and Emilio Mitre allows a draught of up to 33 feet. Therefore the majority of outbound loaded vessels prefers to use the Emilio Mitre channel on their voyage towards the Atlantic Ocean. The majority of the inbound (mostly unloaded) vessels prefers to navigate the Martin Garcia channel. This is caused by the fact that the Martin Garcia channel connects the inland via the Paran Bravo and Paran Guazu rivers. In reference to the Paran Las Palmas, these rivers allow higher ship velocities for these branches are less curved. La Plata entrance channel The channel towards La Plata is not described in detail in this thesis.
Figure 4-2 Rio de la Plata waterway channels
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4.3.2
Zona contigua Norte and Sur
From km.239 to km.57 next to the main channel, two areas exist called Zona Contigua Norte (north) and Zona Contigua Sur (south) (Figure 4-3). Both areas exist of a 300 metres wide stretch with natural depth, facilitating passage of vessels with relative small draught (< 24 ft). Zona Contigua Norte is used by traffic inbound which is not restricted to sail the main channel. Zona Contigua Sur is used by outbound traffic that is not limited to the use of the main channel.
Figure 4-3 Zona Contigua Norte and Sur
4.4 Ports, waiting areas and boundary points

The life of a ship within the system consist sailing times and times when the ship is idle (inactive). The points where the ships are idle are represented by: Ports; a ship is a quay for a given service time Boundary point; where a ship leaves the system to return after a certain dwell time Waiting area; where ships are held for a certain time until proceeding to a next point is allowed. Within the studied area two ports and three boundary points are distinguished. Also waiting areas are present. Figure 4-4 shows the locations. In Platasim, all points are described by a VTS (Vessel Traffic System). A VTS can be seen as a PNA employee that monitors the voyage of a ship trough the system. It registers the arrival/departure times of ships and checks if vessels can proceed towards their next destination. Ports: Buenos Aires port VTS 2 Situated in the capital of Argentina, this port handles all types of cargo. In addition, the port is visited by tourists, which arrive on passenger vessels (cruise-ships). The port is build up by two parts: Buenos Aires port and Dock Sud. These two parts are simulated as one service point. La Plata Port VTS 3 Situated rather close to the Atlantic Ocean, this port is mainly used by tankers. Also bulk carriers and general cargo ships visit the port on occasion. Boundary points: Ponton Recalada VTS 1 On arrival from the Atlantic Ocean, ships enter the channels of Rio de la Plata at Ponton Recalada. From this point on, ships are registered and monitored by PNA and assisted by pilots. Ponton Recalada is also the point where vessels heading for the Atlantic Ocean leave the Rio de la Plata. Inland Point 80 (IP80) VTS 4
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On the west-boundary of the Rio de la Plata, the created model used a fictive service-point representing the life of vessels on the inland waterways of Argentina. This point is situated 80 kilometres from Buenos Aires. IP80 represents the inland ports Campana, Zarate, Rosario, San Lorenzo and San Nicolas. Inland Point 130 (IP130) VTS 7 Situated in the north-west of the Rio de la Plata, another fictive service-point is used by the model. The point is situated at 130km in the Martin Garcia channel. IP130 represents the inland ports Rosario, San Lorenzo, San Nicolas, Nueva Palmira and ports in the inland of Uruguay. Note: The feature of the system that ships leave towards the inland through Martin Garcia and re-enter through Emilio Mitre will be simulated through a fictive connection between IP130 and IP80. In Figure 4-4 this is shown by a red dotted line.
Figure 4-4 Rio de la Plata VTS-points Waiting areas: Zona Comun VTS 9 Central in the Rio de a Plata, situated around km.57 in front of La Plata port is the area called Zona Comun. This large area is provided with natural depths sufficient for all vessels. Zona Comun is used by empty bulk carriers with inland destinations waiting on port availability. WA64 VTS 5 WA64 is the waiting area situated inland in the Paran de las Palmas at the west-side of Rio de la Plata, 64 kilometres from Buenos Aires through Emilio Mitre channel. At this point an anchorage area exist for ships heading towards the Rio de la Plata. WA64 is used to check if vessels are allowed to proceed towards Emilio Mitre channel. WA120 VTS 8 Situated in the northern point of Martin Garcia channel, km.120 from Buenos Aires, is anchorage area WA120. WA120 is used to check if vessels are allowed to proceed in southern direction through Martin Garcia channel.
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WA99 VTS 6 WA99 is situated at km.99 in Canal Intermedio. This point is used to check if vessels can sail to Ponton Recalada without conflicts (tidal restrictions, prohibited encounters). At WA99 anchorage is possible. The waiting areas are defined in Platasim as terminals where ships experience a service time of zero minutes. These points are used to check the possibility of ships to continue on their voyage. Figure 4-5 shows the schematic location of ports and waiting areas (VTSs). This image is not on scale. It should be stressed that if a vessel is checked by a certain VTS on its ability to proceed its voyage, a occurring waiting time of x minutes is written to the result-file of the model. This time does not necessarily represent a full stop but can be represented by a speed-adjustment. By speed adjustment the ships is possible to proceed without laying idle.
IP130 VTS 7 WA120 VTS 8
IP80 VTS 4 WA64 VTS 5
ZONA COMUN VTS 9 WA99 VTS 6
PONTON RECALADA VTS 1
BUENOS AIRES PORT VTS 2

Figure 4-5 Rio de la Plata scheme
LA PLATA PORT VTS 3
Waiting area capacity The waiting areas as used by Platasim are points where the possibility to proceed towards a next destination is checked. Although ships are simulated to wait sometime at a waiting area, in reality they possibly only adjust their speed. E.g. if a vessel is told to wait ten minutes at Zona Comun on its way to Buenos Aires, it will reduce its speed to cover these ten minutes. By Platasim this ship will be registered to occupy a space at Zona Comun, where in reality the ship is not there. To study the occupation of Zona Comun and its capacity is possible if the maximum time that can be won by speed-adjustment is known. Because a ship cannot reduce its speed infinitely (speed is acquired for control of the ship) he will be forced to drop anchor if speed-adjustment cannot prevent conflict. For Rio de la Plata the location where a ship receives indications from PNA is not set at one point. For instance, when a container vessel is to leave from Buenos Aires, a bulk-carrier to Buenos Aires possibly receives indications on his speed long before reaching Zona Comun. Further study should point out how and when a ship is forced to anchor due to channel occupation.
4.5 Prefectura Naval Argentina

The traffic flow of cargo vessels through the Rio de la Plata is managed by the authority Prefectura Naval Argentina (PNA). This authority is the overhead organisation to all VTS points in Platasim described in the previous section. The VTS points are not real physical check-points. They are set up to model the traffic. In reality PNA at Buenos Aires monitors and directs all traffic. Vessels are obliged to call in through radio with PNA to report their presence in the area. When calling in, specifications on the vessel are reported to
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PNA. PNA monitors all traffic in the waterways and provides vessels and their pilots with recommendations and directions on their passage through the channels. In reality PNA knows that certain vessels, especially container carriers that are on a tight schedule, are set to depart a port at a certain time. This knowledge on future requests is not simulated by Platasim. Each ship that requests departure from a certain service-points is new to PNA, and its request has not been anticipated. For instance, it can be well understood that the container vessels requesting departure from Buenos Aires to sail towards Ponton Recalada will announce their departure before they are actually ready to depart. They will report their estimated time of departure to PNA. This knowledge provides PNA with the possibility to direct other traffic with less priority to adjust their velocities or even hold in order to stimulate quick departure of the container vessel.
4.6 Traffic flow

This section describes the ships that are simulated in Platasim with their belonging routes. The fleets are distinguished in order to be able to program the different routes and ship characteristics with related rules in Platasim.
4.6.1 Classification by cargo

The main traffic flow through the Rio de la Plata (RP) is classified by four types of cargo. Table 4-2 shows cargo-classification as it is used in Platasim as well as cargo specification and the percentage number of ships . Number of ships to total shipment for 2002 [%] 1310 875 780 463
Cargo type Bulk
Cargo description Fertilizer, sand, coal, minerals, grain, wood, paper pulp, chemicals, steel Container Containers, car-carriers Tanker Raw petroleum, vegetable oil, chemicals, General cargo Fruits, sugar, agricultural by-products, steel products Table 4-2 Cargo classification
Next to these types of cargo, the Rio de la Plata is used by various other vessels witch are not simulated by Platasim. They are considered not of interest to the traffic flow of the cargo-vessels described above. Many of the ships have a small draught and are able to make way for the large cargo vessels by navigation next to the main channel. (small vessels, small draught, no priority) Recreational vessels (small draught) Dredgers ( low priority, navigates outside channel) Push-barges (small vessels, small draught) Fishery vessels (vessel outside or on rim of channel, small draught) Buoy tenders (maintenance) (small vessels, manoeuvrable, small draught) Tug vessels Passenger vessels As special group of traffic is formed by passenger vessels. Although no strong rules about encounters exist on paper, encounters between cargo-traffic and passenger vessels in the Rio de la Plata are prevented by Prefectura Naval Argentina. Section 4.8.4 describes how this behaviour is described in Platasim. As was already stated in chapter one, the number of passenger ships to visit Buenos Aires that can be expected in the future is uncertain. The model created within this thesis creates 50 passenger ships, as were recorded in 2002. It is recommended to investigate the number of passenger ships that can be expected in the future.
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4.6.2 Classification by route and destination

Thorough analysis of data recorded for the year 2002, a classification was made based on destination and route. An important feature of the waterway-system is the difference in bathymetric between Martin Garcia and Emilio Mitre as mentioned earlier in section 4.3. The routes are shown in Table 4-3. As mentioned earlier, a large group of ships enter the inland through Martin Garcia channel but leave the inland through Emilio Mitre channel. These ships leave the system at IP130 to proceed to ports on the Paran river and re-enter at IP80. These points are connected by Platasim via an imaginary channel . Entrance Port Departure Note PR BsAs PR PR La Plata PR PR IP80 PR In: EM ; Out: MG PR IP80 PR In: MG ; Out: EM PR IP130 PR In: MG ; Out: MG LA PLATA BsAs LA PLATA LA PLATA IP80 LA PLATA In: EM ; Out: EM LA PLATA IP130 LA PLATA In: MG ; Out: MG Table 4-3 shipping routes PR = Ponton Recalada EM = Emilio Mitre channel MG = Martin Garcia channel In = navigating towards the inland of Argentina Out = navigating towards Ponton Recalada (Atlantic Ocean) The routes as described above do not cover all the routes used by cargo vessels. Since 95% of all ships sail one of the routes from Table 4-3, the other routes are not defined and used by Platasim. Figure 4-6 shows the destinations of traffic. The dotted red-line indicates the fictive connection used by the model to simulate traffic leaving the Rio de la Plata at IP130 and re-entering after a period at IP80.
Figure 4-6 Traffic destinations
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4.6.3 Classification by size and draught

Traffic rules as they are applied to the waterways in the Rio de la Plata are described in section 4.7. Navigation rules are related to the size and draught of a vessel. In order to create different behaviour for different size of vessels, classifications are made for draught and length as shown in Table 4-4. The notations s,m,l and xl are used for the identification of fleets as will be explained later on. Draught [ft] LOA* [m] > 15 <24 60 - 100 S >24 <29 110 170 M >29 <33 120 - 200 L >33 150 - 280 XL Table 4-4 classification by length and draught *LOA= length over all Due to depth limitations, vessels with a design draught over 33 feet are simulated to be loaded up to 33 feet when leaving the inland through Emilio Mitre channel. Navigation rules prescribe 34 feet, 33 is used as an average in Platasim. The draught rules for outbound loaded vessels through Martin Garcia are stricter and allow these ships to sail with a maximum loaded draught of 32 feet. Interviews with Pilots learned that the water level in the Paran river influences the choice of captains to load to a certain draught when visiting inland ports. Extra draught means extra cargo which is preferable, but makes the vessel more dependent on tidal movement of the water level. This phenomenon is not simulated in Platasim.
4.6.4 Loaded vs. In Ballast

The navigation rules will show that a large section of 33 kilometres in the Punta Indio channel (Figure 4-7 page 41 )prohibits the crossing of two vessels when both their draughts exceed 29 feet. Next to this section, two smaller sections exist that do not allow the encounter of any traffic navigating the main channel. The presence of Zona Contigua Norte and Sur provides passage next to the main channel from Ponton Recalada to Zona Comun for vessels not forced within the channel by their draught (partially loaded, in ballast or small vessels). In order to simulate the influence of this section and the present rule on the traffic flow, it is important to accurately describe the number of vessels that are forced to navigate inside this section. The available records on 2002 show the design draught for the vessels and not their actual draught on entrance at Ponton Recalada or departure from one of the ports. Detailed research should point out the exact number of vessels using the main channel or Zona Contigua. In order to describe the incoming (towards Zona Comun) and outgoing (towards Ponton Recalada) number of ships with draughts over 29 feet the following assumptions are made, based on interviews with pilots and basic figures on import and export. Platasim will simulate that all container traffic towards Buenos Aires and back to Ponton Recalada are loaded up to the design draught with a maximum of 32 feet, forcing them to sail within the main channel. Platasim will simulate that bulk carriers and tankers enter at Ponton Recalada with a draught allowing them to navigate through Zona Contigua Norte. These vessels are set to leave at Ponton Recalada with their design draught with a maximum of 32 or 33 feet. The small number of container and general cargo traffic towards the Paran river is set to enter at Ponton Recalada not forced within the channel by their draught. Outbound towards the Atlantic Ocean, these ships are set to sail loaded. Based on these assumptions, one third of all vessels entering at Ponton Recalada are simulated to be loaded and forced within the main channel. Traffic from Zona Comun towards Ponton Recalada is set to be loaded to their design draught or the allowed maximum draught (Table 4-1).
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from
to
Draught [ft]
number of ships
>29 910 > 24 ...<29 0 Zona Comun Ponton Recalada >29 2750 > 24 ...<29 226 Table 4-1 Draught indications between Zona Comun and Ponton Recalada
Ponton Recalada Zona Comun
Note: The capability of the Punta Indio channel to facilitate passage of traffic is strongly depending on the rules related to draught of vessels. The set-up of traffic as assumed above is therefore critical. This should be held in mind when interpreting the results generated by Platasim. Conclusion: Platasim will simulate that one third of incoming ships at Ponton Recalada are loaded, forcing them to use the main channel. Two third in set to be empty on entrance, creating the possibility to use Zona Contigua Norte. Outbound towards Ponton Recalada and the Atlantic Ocean, all vessels are simulated to be loaded forcing them to use the main channel.
4.6.5 Generated fleets

Based on the differences between vessels in destination, route, cargo and size, a total of 25 fleets are defined and generated by Platasim (Appendix B). The different fleets have a name (identification in Platasim) that specifies their destination/port, cargo and size. For the bulk carriers the difference between the use of Martin Garcia (MG) of Emilio Mitre channel (EM) is specified within the name as well. The exact description of the fleet IDs as they will be used in further chapters is found in this appendix.
4.7 Ship velocity

To define the time spend by a vessel in a certain waterway section, its speed has to be defined. For each type of cargo the velocities for the different channels as they will be used by Platasim are shown in Table 4-5. The locations of the channels are shown on page 31. Channel Punta Indio, Intermedio, Banco Chico, Rada Exterior Container 14 Tanker 12 Bulk carrier 11 General Cargo 12 Passenger 15
Emilio Mitre 10 10 Martin Garcia 10 10 Canal de Accesso 10 10 Table 4-5 Ship velocity [knots] used in Platasim
10 10 10
10 10 10
14 14
Small variations in speed for embarking/disembarking pilots are not taken into account. The velocities from Table 4-5 are applied for both loaded and unloaded vessels. For the different types of cargo, no distinction for velocities is made between the different shipssizes. The time spend in each section by a vessel is fixed in Platasim. The model does not adjust ship velocities.
4.8 Navigation rules 4.8.1 Rules on encounter

Definitions:
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Cross Overtake
: two vessels passing each other in opposite direction : One vessel passes a slower vessel, both vessels navigate in the same direction
Navigation rules prescribe for each waterway section the rules that apply between vessels when encountered. Through input files read by Platasim is defined in what section which fleets are allowed to cross or overtake each other. Appendix L shows what rules are applied for the sections in which the Rio de la Plata waterway system has been divided. At the end of this chapter (page 50) the schematic set up of the model and section numbers is found. An important rule is set for the section 5 between km.150 and km.183 within the Punta Indio channel. Two vessels are prohibited to cross each other within this section when both their draught exceeds 29 feet.
4.8.2 Typical points in Rio de la Plata

The waterway in the Rio de la Plata is subject to numerous rules for different sections. The following remarks can be made to understand the traffic flow and its obstacles. Figure 4-7 indicates the sections with prohibited encounters by red lines. Km.0 to Km.16 The channel from Buenos Aires to the two km.16 points (one in Emilio Mitre, one in Canal de Accesso) prohibits the crossing of cargo-ships. Km.37 At this point, where Martin Garcia and Canal de Accesso come together, traffic is not allowed to cross within a distance of four kilometres to this point. Km.140 to km.150 This section in the Punta Indio channel prohibits the crossing of all traffic that navigates in the channel. Km.150 to km.183 This section in Punta Indio channel prohibits the crossing of vessels when both have a draught over 29 feet. Km. 195 to km.201 This section in Punta Indio channel prohibits the crossing of vessels when both have a draught over 29 feet. Km.42 to km.48 This section in Emilio Mitre channel prohibits the crossing of all vessels. Martin Garcia The crossing of vessels within the Martin Garcia channel is prohibited in various sections.
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Figure 4-7 Navigation rules indication
4.8.3 Distance between vessels

When two vessels are navigating behind each other, a distance between them of one nautical mile is prescribed. For the average speed of twelve knots, this distance in time is calculated to be five minutes. For Platasim a minimum distance in time between vessels navigating behind each other, is set to be six minutes.
4.8.4 Passenger vessels

On an annual basis, the port of Buenos Aires is visited by 50 passenger vessels (cruise-ships). These passenger vessels request to PNA to ensure that the passenger vessels does not encounter cargo-vessels on the total channel length of km.239 (Ponton Recalada to Buenos Aires). To simulate this strong demand, checks are performed by VTSs to check the possibility of encounter between a passenger ship that has announced arrival at Ponton Recalada or departure at Buenos Aires. Modifications have been created in the model in order to simulate the demand for an empty channel issued by passenger vessels before they arrive from the Atlantic Ocean at Ponton Recalada. Also on departure from Buenos Aires, the passenger vessels issues a premature request to PNA to be able to sail to the Atlantic Ocean without conflict.
4.9 External parameters

External parameters are factors influencing the traffic flow next to the traffic rules for crossing and overtaking as they were described in section 4.5. The external parameters, defined by Platasim, that influence the traffic flow in the Rio de la Plata are the following: Fog Storm Tidal windows How these parameters influence the life of ships is explained in the following sections. The analysis of the created model described in chapter 5 shows how these parameters influence the results. To reduce the complexity of the model, some external influences are left out. Pilot availability
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At various points, pilots embark and disembark. The model as created assumes that pilots are always available to board and assist cargo-vessels. Further studies should point out if pilot-capacity can evolve to be an issue after a change of traffic-intensity. Channel closing events Information on channel closings, caused by channel maintenance and accidents, shows that in the period 2000-2003 eleven times sections of the Rio de la Plata and Rio Paran were closed for traffic. Due to this low rate of occurrence and missing information on their exact cause, groundings are not simulated by Platasim. Appendix G shows the registered closure events, their duration and location. Channel maintenance By buoy-tenders and dredgers the channels are maintained. Obstruction of channels caused by maintenance vessels is not simulated by the created model. River current Influence of current in the Rio de la Plata on the behaviour of traffic flow is not used in the model. Interviews with pilots learned that currents present in the river influence the sailing speed of vessels. Vessel require a minimum speed of 6 knots in reference to the ground for sufficient steering ability. Although on occasion vessels adjust their speed depending on current, it is not considered a troublesome aspect to traffic flow. Wave conditions Due to the shallowness of the Rio de la Plata estuary, no large waves exist that are considered a disturbance to cargo vessels. On occasion, waves prevent the embarking and disembarking of pilots since they are transported by small pilot vessels that experience trouble by lining up next to cargo vessels. This problem is implicitly simulated by the external parameter storm in 4.9.2.
4.9.1 Fog
Regulations issued by Prefectura Naval Argentina (PNA) prescribe that sailing is allowed with a visibility of more than 1 kilometre. During navigation this visibility is interpreted by both captain and pilot. Throughout the year, especially in the months May up to August, periods of fog create situations of low visibility. During these periods the ports of Buenos Aires, La Plata, the Emilio Mitre and Martin Garcia entrance points are closed. Ships at quay are to wait. Ships already on their way from Zona Comun (checkpoint) are to finish their course. Servicio Meteorologico Nacional (SMN) has provided with registrations of periods of fog for the year 2002. However, these registrations (Table 4-6) do not show fog-intensity (e.g. visibility distance) or the length of the fog-periods. Based on this limited data and interviews with various pilots that operate in the Rio de la Plata, estimations were made for fog periods causing delay-times.
Number of fogperiods La Plata Port 45 Buenos Aires 4 Table 4-6 Fog registration by Servicio Meteorologico Nacional Argentina, recorded at airport Buenos Aires and La Plata in 2002 From the table above it follows that the registrations differ for both ports. Additional data provided by SMN is based recordings at Buenos Aires for the period between 1991 and 2000. Over these years, a maximum 11 fog periods per year was recorded which also differs from the year 2002. Since the ports of La Plata and Buenos Aires and waiting areas WA64 and WA120 are located within 100 kilometres of each other, they are assumed to experience heavy fog at the same time and are therefore closed by Platasim at the same time. Conclusion The records for 2002, the survey over 1991-200 and the estimations of pilots contradict each other. After interpretation of the different sources, the weather component in Platasim is set to generate 20 periods of
Year 2002
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fog per year. These periods are uniform distributed over the year and their duration is uniform sampled between two to five hours. Pilots indicated that fog periods occur approximately four times per month over five months. It has therefore been assumed that fog periods do not occur within days of each other. The uniform distribution over a year is therefore applied.
4.9.2 Storm
The Rio de la Plata estuary is subject to storms that cause delays to waterway traffic. Winds with high velocities coming in from the Atlantic Ocean cause closures of the La Plata and Buenos Aires ports. During the closures, ships are not to enter or leave the ports. Ships heading for Buenos Aires, which have already passed Zona Comun and embarked a pilot, usually proceed on their voyage and wait in the areas outside Buenos Aires port. Ships arriving at Zona Comun, coming from Ponton Recalada, are troubled by the fact that pilots are not available to assist, since the pilot ships coming from La Plata port are held as well. Traffic coming into the Rio de la Plata from IP80 are set to hold at WA64 during storms. Traffic coming into the Rio de la Plata from IP130 are set to hold at WA120. Traffic coming in from Ponton Recalada is set to sail to Zona Comun during all weather conditions. Note: This section describes the input of complete port closures due to storm. In reality the situation occurs that ships with a large freeboard (container, ship-carrier) are bothered by winds with a lower velocity than storms. This distinction is not made in Platasim. The rate of occurrence for storm was determined by analysis of meteorological data provided by SMN and pilot interviews. The data from SMN show the daily highest recorded wind-velocity and its direction. The duration of these high-velocity winds cannot be extracted from the records. In Platasim it is assumed that closures occur for all points at the same time (WA64, WA120, La Plata, Buenos Aires). In reality each storm is unique and interpreted differently by PNA and port authorities. Table 4-7 shows the limit still allowing navigation as they are used for Platasim. These limits are rules of thumb used by authorities and are not issued by law.
Limit [km/hr] Times exceeded in 2002 * Buenos Aires 60 51 La Plata 50 24 *Recorded by Servicio Meteorologico Nacional in 2002 Table 4-7 Wind velocity limits for port closures
To estimate the number of closures per year, only the wind-directions from south to west are considered problematic. These directions allow the wind to reach its full speed in front of the ports and Rio de la Plata entrance points.
In 2002 12 4 3 3 22 Table 4-8 Wind-direction recorded at Buenos Aires with velocity > 60 km/hr * E = East S = South Direction * ESE S SE E
Since the recorded data only show the highest recorded value per day, the duration of storms cannot be extracted. Based on pilot interviews, the storm duration is set to be uniformly distributed between five to ten hours with a frequency of twenty times per year. Conclusion:
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Based on the wind-velocity limit at Buenos Aires of 60 km/h for port closure, Platasim is set to generate 20 periods of closing per year with a uniform distributed duration between five to ten hours. The number of periods is based on the estimations from interviewed pilots. During these periods, La Plata port and Buenos Aires port close simultaneously as well as the waiting are WA64 and WA120. Traffic coming from Ponton Recalada is allowed to continue to Zona Comun.
4.9.3
Tidal windows
As described in chapter 3, it is possible to assign time-frames in which a certain vessel has to pass a certain point (critical point) in the waterway in order to have enough keel-clearance. These frames, called tidal windows, are created by tidal movement of the waterlevel. Because the tidal differences in water levels are rather small for the Rio de la Plata, the influence of wind on the water-levels (set-up and set-down) is also important and discussed in this section. If turned on in Platasim, tidal windows will be applied for the bulk fleets with a design draught >33 feet (XL) and directed outbound through Emilio Mitre ( fleets 14,16,17). These vessels are set to be loaded to 33 feet. In reality, an factor of influence to the loaded draught of bulk carriers is the water level in Rio Paran rivers. This influence is not used in this thesis. Keel clearance Keel clearance is the space between the bottom of a channel and the ships hull. For all waterway sections is the Rio de la Plata the minimum keel-clearance is prescribed to 0.6 metres. Points of critical depth On a regular basis, Servicio de Hidrografia Naval (SHN) issues directions on depths. These directions describe the minimum depths in the Rio de la Plata channels (example in Appendix D). Due to dredging, erosion and sedimentation the location of these points change throughout the year. In order to simulate possible tidal windows, two points were set based on the issued directions shown in the appendix D. Table 4-9 shows the points in the waterway system used to define tidal windows in Platasim for XL bulk carriers. For further reference:
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CP1 : critical point 1 situated in Emilio Mitre at 37 km CP2: critical point 2 situated in Punta Indio at 193 km KM KM FROM
239.1
WIDTH CANAL (m)
DEPTH ZERO (m)

-10.00 -10.00
KM TO
121.0 CANAL PUNTA INDIO
CRITICAL
193
100 100
12.0 42.0 CANAL ING.EMILIO MITRE 37 Table 4-9 Points critical depth Issued 8 juni 2004 by Subsecretaria de Puertos y Vias Navegables (www.mecon.gov.ar/transporte/direccion.htm)
Figure 4-8 Location of points with depth=-10.0 m ref. to L.I.M.B. used for tidal windows Squat When sailing through a channel, a ship creates return-currents. Water pushed aside by the ships hull flows next to the ship opposite to the ships direction. This current creates a water-level depression causing the ship to be positioned deeper in the waterway than at zero-speed. The extra draught is called squat (Figure 4-9). Calculations based on the following parameters show a squat of 0.35 metres. Appendix E shows the detailed squat calculations. : 33 feet ( 10 metres) Static draught (at rest) : 6 knots ( 11.1 km/hr) Navigation speed at critical points : 35 metres Ship width
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Water-level Keel clearance Squat Bottom
Figure 4-9 Squat and keel clearance The mean water-level in Rio de la Plata is 0.8 metres above the zero-level used in Table 4-9. Based on tidal estimations for 2002, the mean low water level is 0.5 meter above L.I.M.B. The mean high water level 1.0 to 1.1 meter above L.I.M.B. Small differences exist between various locations in the Rio de la Plata. The maximum difference is 10 centimetres. Wind set-up and set-down Next to tidal variations, an important factor to the water-level is the set-up and set-down caused by wind. Wind directed into the Rio de la Plata estuary is assumed to create enough depth for XL bulk carriers to sail at all times. As an example, Appendix G shows a graph with set-up for Rio de la Plata at a wind-velocity of 10 km/hr coming from the east. Records provided by SMN show that 73% of the recorded days, wind is directed into the Rio de la Plata (north-east to south). During these periods, the bulk carriers are considered to be able to sail at all times due to wind set-up. When wind is directed in ocean direction, a six-hour window is set for fleet 14, 16 and 17 at WA64. 66 times a year, a period of one to two days is simulated with tidal windows. During these periods, wind setdown is neglected. Due to the large distance between both critical points, a phase-difference of 460 minutes is present. E.g. the critical point in Punta Indio channel experiences high water 460 minutes earlier than the critical point in Emilio Mitre. This phase difference is implemented in the tidal windows as used by Platasim. Conclusion: Platasim is set to create 66 times per year a tidal-window for xl bulk carriers sailing outbound through Emilio Mitre and Punta Indio channel. The tidal window is a six hour frame in which a xl-bulk carrier is expected to sail a critical stretch with sufficient keel-clearance. Note: The use of tidal-windows by Platasim is described above. It is important to understand that the use of tidalwindows in reality is based on a lot of factors and that each encountered situation is unique and interpreted by pilots, captain and PNA. When interpreting simulation results, the assumptions and considerations made above should be kept in mind.
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4.10 Port service times 4.10.1 Service times

To determine the period of ships spend in ports, the recordings for 2002 were analysed. Since the arrivaltime of ships at Ponton Recalada as well as the departure-time at the visited port are present, subtraction of a single voyage time results in the port service times. The service-times (ST) were determined for each type of cargo (Table 4-10). The statistic analysis program BestFit was used. For each type of cargo, all vessels are set to be subject to the same service-time distribution. ST distribution function [hours] 24 110 65 71 ERLANG 2 WEIBULL ERLANG 2 ERLANG 2
Mean Service Time [minutes] Cargo type Container 1452 Bulk 6590 General cargo 3877 Tanker 4269 Table 4-10 Service time per type of cargo
The Erlang-2 and Weibull distributions represent a large variation around the mean service time. This implies that at a random pace vessels request departure from the service points. Appendix J shows the graphical interpretation of the Erlang-2 and Weibull 1.1 distribution functions.
4.10.2
Port availability
To study the exact behaviour of vessels in the various ports is beyond the scope of this thesis. This thesis focuses on congestions due to channel occupation. In the model no restrictions are set to quay-occupation. Port availability does not play a role in the performed capacity studies.
4.11 Ship inter arrival time

Analysis of data show that no large seasonal differences in traffic exist (Appendix C). Drawn from statistical functions, each ship belonging to a certain fleet is generated with certain inter arrival times. Through analysing the recorded traffic in 2002, statistical functions were assigned to each fleet (Appendix J). The three statistic distributions used are Erlang-1 , Erlang-2 and Weibull. All functions show are large deviations around the mean inter arrival time. This means that vessels enter the model at a random pace. The density functions are shown graphically in Appendix J.
4.12 Conclusions set-up Platasim 4.12.1 Assumptions and conditions

System behaviour: Changes in traffic intensity do not influence the distribution of vessels over the different fleets. (if predictions show an increase of 10% for bulk carriers, this is applied to all fleets) Changes in traffic intensity do not influence the distribution of vessels over different sizes. Changes in traffic intensity do not influence the distribution over the various routes. Operational time Platasim simulates the traffic in the Rio de la Plata as continuous flow running 365 days times 24 hours. No difference is set between day and night traffic. Inter arrival times and port-service times are connected to one distribution function per fleet for simulation. Seasonal change in traffic is low and not simulated. The sampled service time is distributed per type of cargo. No distinction is made between the size of vessels. E.g. all bulk carriers are subject to the same service-time distribution when in port. Simulation runs representing future years (after change of traffic intensity) use the same distributions of service- and arrival times as defined for 2002.
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Navigation assistance Pilots are available at all times as well as pilot vessels. Delay time caused by the embarking and disembarking of pilots is neglected. Tug-vessels are available at all times. Delay time caused by the attachment of vessels to tugs is not taken into account. Port and waiting area availability Port availability is no restriction in Platasim. This implies that waiting times are never caused by quay-occupation. Waiting area capacities are not studied in this thesis. Waiting areas are set to be able receive an infinite number of ships. Zona Contigua vs. main channel Container and general cargo traffic to Buenos Aires are set to be loaded sailing in both directions. Bulk carriers and tankers are set to be empty (in ballast) if entering Rio de la Plata at Ponton Recalada and loaded in the opposite direction. They navigate up to Zona Comun through Zona Contigua Norte. All fleets with draught larger than 24 feet (m, l or xl) are set to navigate within the main channel from WA99 towards Ponton Recalada. External parameters not simulated to influence traffic flow Currents in the Rio de la Plata Channel closure caused by dredging activities Channel closure caused by buoy maintenance Channel closure by accidents or groundings. Storm During simulation 20 periods of storm in each year occur with a duration that is uniform distributed between five to ten hours. Storm closes the ports of Buenos Aires and La Plata as well traffic coming into the Rio de la Plata from WA64 and WA120. Fog During simulation (one year) 20 periods of fog occur with a time that is uniform distributed between two to five hours. Fog closes the ports of Buenos Aires and La Plata as well traffic coming into the Rio de la Plata from WA64 and WA120. Passenger ships If turned on in Platasim, 50 passenger ships are generated. Although most passenger vessels visit the port of Buenos Aires in the months December, January and February, the ships are set to arrive uniform distributed over the year. Implicitly is assumed that passenger vessels do not encounter each other and at maximum one passenger vessel is in the studied system. How the number of vessels to visit the port of Buenos Aires annually will develop should be subject to further investigation. Tidal windows Tidal windows are applied only for bulk carriers with a design draught over 33 feet leaving the inland through Emilio Mitre with destination Ponton Recalada. 21 % of the time, one year, these ships are bound to two six-hour-windows per day to pass two points of 10.0 metres depth below zero-level. La Plata entrance channel The channel towards the port of La Plata is not described in detail by Platasim. The channel is set not to create congestion (encounters and overtakings are allowed). Buenos Aires entrance channel The channel towards the port of Buenos Aires, from km.0 to km.12, in reality splits into two channels at km.7. From this point vessels either go to Buenos Aires Port of Dock Sud. This split is not simulated by Platasim.
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4.12.2 Schematic representation Platasim

This chapter has described the rules, fleets and traffic-flow Platasim simulates. On the next page the schematic representation of Platasim is shown. Notes
The waterway section S34 has been created to allow ships to leave at IP130 and re-enter the model at IP80. This waterway section is no representation of a real channel or river. It was marked by a red-dotted line in Figure 4-6. The schematisation is not on scale. The different waiting areas are also labelled by terminal numbers in order to use them in Platasim. These waiting areas are not real terminals where vessels port. The red dots indicate as critical points for the use of tidal windows. S13 represents Zona Contigua Norte and Zona Contigua Sur. It is especially used by fleets that are assumed to enter unloaded of with a small draught not forcing them to use the main channel.
Abbreviations IPX VTS Syy Cont Bulk Tanker WA.Z Genca
Inland Point simulated at X kilometres from Buenos Aires Vessel Traffic System Section number Container terminal Bulk carrier terminal Tanker terminal Waiting Area situated Z kilometres from Buenos Aires General Cargo
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IP130
Terminal 13 BULK Terminal 14 TANK
Figure 4-10 Schematic representation of Platasim (not on scale)
VTS 7 S44
Figure 4-10 Schematic representation Platasim
IP80
S42 VTS 8 Terminal 18 W.A. 120
Terminal 9 CONT S43 S41 S40 S39 MARTIN GARCIA CHANNEL S38
S34
VTS 4
Terminal 10 BULK
S33
Terminal 11 GENCA
S32
VTS 5
Terminal 12 TANK S45 S37 S36 S35 S18 S20 S19 S12 VTS 3 Terminal 4 TANK Terminal 3 GENCA Terminal 2 TANK S14 S17 S15 S10 S16 S11 S9 S8 S5 S4 S3 VTS 9 Terminal 16 W.A. 54 = ZONA COMUN S13 Zona Contigua Norte/Sur
S31
S30
Terminal 17 W.A. 64
S29
S28
EMILIO MITRE CHANNEL
S27
PONTON RECALADA VTS 1
S26
S25
S21
S23
S2
S1
S22
S7 S6 VTS 6 Terminal 15 W.A. 99
VTS 2
S24
OCEAN Terminal 1 BULK
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Terminal 8 BULK
BUENOS AIRES
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Terminal 7 PASS
Terminal 5 CONT
Terminal 6 GENCA
LA PLATA PORT
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5.
Platasim analysis
5.1 Introduction
Chapter three and four described how Harboursim can be used to study traffic-flow of cargo ships in a system of waterways and how Platasim was created to describe the traffic-flow in the Rio de la Plata estuary. This chapter studies the performance of Platasim. Since data is only available on the arrival and departure times of vessels at ports, no data on waiting times experienced at different points is at hand. To perform a good validation, check if the model is showing realistic results, is therefore difficult. This chapter studies the results of Platasim and evaluates these on level of realism. At first is analysed the results of Platasim for a basic state. As a basic state, the traffic-intensity recorded in 2002 is used without the use of external parameters (no fog, storm, tidal windows or passenger vessels). The output is studied on 4 subjects: Output deviation between simulations Waiting time at port or waiting area(VTS) Influence external parameters Chapter four showed that Platasim is build up by nine VTS points (Figure 5-1) where ships are serviced or checked during their existence in the model. The passing ships are divided into 25 fleets with their own size, cargo, route and destination. For the analysis of Platasim in this chapter, not all fleets and points are reviewed in detail.
Figure 5-1 Platasim service points
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5.2 Basic state input

The input used for the basic state simulation is based on the number of ships recorded in 2002.
Nb. Ships in year 2002 Nr. Fleet Nr. 1 BACONTL 803 14 2 BAPAS 0 15 3 BABULKL 57 16 4 BATANKL 205 17 5 BATANKM 42 18 6 BAGENCAL 144 19 7 BAGENCAM 40 20 8 RLPBULKL 74 21 9 RLPTANKL 76 22 10 RLPTANKM 46 23 11 RLP_IP80TANKS 44 24 12 RLP_BATANKS 71 25 13 RLP_IP80GENCAS 123 Nb. Ships in year 2002 Fleet IP80EMBULKXL 195 IP80EMBULKL 88 IP80MGBULKXL 509 IP80ZCMGBULKXL 90 IP80MGBULKL 126 IP80TANKL 138 IP80TANKM 61 IP80CONTL 98 IP80GENCAL 104 IP80GENCAM 45 IP130BULKXL 91 IP130TANKS 72 total 3342
Table 5-1 Number of ships generated in Basic Sate
5.3 Output deviations between simulations

This section reviews if large deviations exist between the results of simulation runs. A run represents the simulation of one year of traffic. Because each simulation run uses different seeds for the generation of ships and service times, the average waiting time might differ. For 10 runs (years), the results on average waiting times are compared. For four typical service points, the results are compared: : departure of container vessels outbound towards Zona Buenos Aires Comun : departure of loaded bulk carriers towards Ponton Recalada WA99 : departure of loaded bulk carriers outbound towards Zona WA64 Comun : departure of large tankers to Emilio Mitre channel (IP80) Zona Comun What Figure 5-1 and Table 5-2 show is that over ten runs the simulation results vary around a mean value with a certain standard deviation (SD). The deviations that exist vary sometimes up to 30% from the mean value between runs. To analyse Platasim in this chapter, results of four or more runs will be used. Capacity studies in chapter six will use four runs for each set up. Four runs are used for this is the maximum that can be simulated by Prosim due to memory limitations. Considering the small deviations, four runs is expected to be sufficient. What the results also show is that the first run (year) does not create significantly other results that the following runs. The first run could be subject to 'start' differences because it starts with an empty system. However, based on the result differences, the first run and its results can be used as well.
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Fleet 1 Location Buenos Aires RUN MWT 1 63 2 56 3 58 4 58 5 55 6 63 7 61 8 64 9 59 10 68 MEAN 60.5 SD 4.0 16 WA99 MWT 25 24 25 24 25 26 25 25 25 23 24.7 0.8 16 WA64 MWT 27 20 31 28 24 27 25 30 24 23 25.9 3.3 19 Zona Comun MWT 41 40 34 47 30 43 38 33 40 41 38.7 5.1
Table 5-2 Mean waiting time per run

Mean waiting time per run
80 Mean waiting time [minutes 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 RUN 7 8 9 10
Fleet 1 at BsAs Fleet 16 at WA64
Fleet 16 at WA99 Fleet 19 at Zona Comun
Figure 5-1 Comparison mean waiting time between runs
5.4 Waiting time at service points 5.4.1 All service points

This section describes what waiting times are experienced by each fleet at the different ports and waiting areas in Platasim for basic state. The figures used are averaged results of 10 simulation runs with each a duration of one year. Table 5-3 shows how much waiting time on average per ship per fleet is experienced at what point. The identification of fleets is elaborated in appendix B. To the left the minutes are shown, where on the right the percentage to the total waiting time is written. The location of ports and waiting areas is found at the beginning of this chapter. Again it should be mentioned that certain waiting time expressed in minutes should not be considered a full stop of navigation. In reality these vessels reduce their speed in order to sail a certain sections without conflict. Reduction of speed causes delay time. The sequence in which vessels visit the different ports and waiting areas is given in Appendix B on page 104.
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Waiting time at service points basic state 2002
Ponton Recalada
Ponton Recalada
Buenos Aires
Buenos Aires
Zona Comun
Zona Comun
La Plata
La Plata
WA120
TOTAL
WA120
TOTAL
WA99
WA64
WA99
WA64
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
BACONTL BAPAS BABULKL BATANKL BATANKM BAGENCAL BAGENCAM RLPBULKL RLPTANKL RLPTANKM RLP_IP80TANKS RLP_BATANKS RLP_IP80GENCAS IP80EMBULKXL IP80EMBULKL IP80MGBULKXL IP80ZCMGBULKXL IP80MGBULKL IP80TANKL IP80TANKM IP80CONTL IP80GENCAL IP80GENCAM IP130BULKXL IP130TANKS
53 33 61 8 11 11 41 16 8 14 11
35
181 124 129 120 153 119 58 67 57 68 95 74 86 90 77 87 74 97 85 110 106 82 96 81
29 18 33 6 8 9 27 13 13 20 19
19
30 62 24 35 56 27 37 53 19 31 59 23 35 53 16 27 0 24 29 0 24 32 14 49 1 18 42 53 1 56 0 18 7 38 23 18 8 39 26 17 8 26 25 19 7 36 25 19 7 26 24 18 13 39 23 23 10 41 12 23 9 44 31 26 12 41 28 25 12 36 12 22 9 23 24 40 0 38 43 Minutes at service points
24 50 19 27 44 21 31 44 16 20 38 15 30 44 13 46 0 41 44 0 36 57 24 73 1 27 44 55 1 75 0 24 8 44 27 21 9 43 29 19 10 33 32 24 8 41 29 22 9 35 32 24 14 40 23 23 11 47 14 27 8 40 28 24 11 39 26 24 15 44 15 27 10 24 25 42 0 46 53 Percentage to total waiting time
100 0 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 101 100 99 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Table 5-3 Platasim output on waiting times Basic State (no fog, storm, passenger vessels or tidal windows) averaged over 10 runs Comments on results from Table 5-3: Service point Zona Comun is used to check traffic towards BsAs, IP80 or IP130. No passenger vessels are used within this run therefore no results on this fleet are produced. On arrival at Ponton Recalada, waiting times for the container vessels to BsAs (fleet 1) and the general cargo vessels to BsAs (fleet 6) are relatively large considering the other fleets. This can be explained by the fact that these fleets are simulated to be loaded and therefore forced to use the main channel. Here they encounter traffic in opposite direction, possible forcing them to wait. The other fleets are set to be empty on entrance and sail the Zona Contigua Norte. Their (relative) small waiting times are build up by prescribed sailing distances and prohibited overtaking near Zona Comun. Traffic at WA64 waiting to enter the Rio de la Plata through Emilio Mitre experience rather the same waiting time. Small differences can be explained by the fact that, on their way to next checkpoint (WA99) not always overtaking is allowed, causing delay time as a result of velocity differences between ships. At WA99, used to check vessels towards Ponton Recalada, clear differences can be seen between the waiting times for medium vessels, with a loaded draught between 24 and 29 feet, and the large vessels with draught over 29 feet. The large vessels are bothered by the rule that prohibits them to
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encounter other large traffic between km.150 and km.183. This rule is not valid for the medium vessels. Traffic leaving from BsAs experiences waiting time caused by the fact that from km.0 to km.16, no encounters are allowed. Fleet 1 and 6 (container and general cargo to BsAs) experience a difference in waiting times, although they travel exactly the same track with the same rules. This difference can easily be explained by their difference in navigation speed.
5.4.2 Interpretation fleet 4: Batankl

For fleet 4, large tanker to Buenos Aires coming from Ponton Recalada, the waiting time at Buenos Aires port, when requesting to depart again, shows an average value of 56 minutes. This represents the mean waiting time experienced by a large tanker vessel requesting to leave the port of Buenos Aires with subdestination W99. Since the access channel towards the port of Buenos Aires (km.0 to km.16) is a channel where crossings and over-takings are prohibited, significant waiting times were to be expected here. Now it is important to understand how the value of 56 minutes is distributed. How do the waiting times experienced by fleet 4 vary around this average and what are the causes? To analyse the waiting times in detail, two simulation runs (two years) were performed creating around 400 ships belonging to fleet 4. The waiting time experienced at departure from Buenos Aires for each ship was written to output files. Through analysis of the output, graphs were created.
W a iting tim e distribution BATANKL a t Bue nos Aire s Port
300 250 number of ships 200 150 100 50 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 Waiting tim e r ange [m inute s ]
Figure 5-2 Waiting time distribution Batankl at Buenos Aires after a two year run What clearly can be deduced from Figure 5-2 is that 240 vessels have to wait less than 25 minutes on departure from Buenos Aires. Other vessels have to wait mainly between 25 to 200 minutes. This can be explained as follows. A ship requesting permission to depart from Buenos Aires in order to sail to Ponton Recalada via WA99, will be mainly delayed by ships in opposite direction that have reserved the waterway sections km.0-km.16.
During the period that a ship has to await his permission for departure, another ship from Zona Comun with destination Buenos Aires may receive permission to sail. He is not troubled because the tanker at Bs As is not allowed to sail and therefore has not reserved waterway section. For the waiting vessel at Buenos Aires possibly another conflict is created by this new vessel. These unlucky events create the larger waiting times. The tanker ship keeps missing a good window to depart. In reality it can be expected that these large waiting times will be prevented by PNA by directing traffic in a manner that creates better possibilities for
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the departure of the container vessels leaving Buenos Aires. The current model is not capable of directing the traffic in such a manner that large unrealistic waiting times are prevented. Are these large values realistic and should they be used for capacity studies? In reality, a ship will not be forced to wait three hours at port caused by channel occupation. It can be expected that traffic managing authorities (i.e. PNA) will direct the flow of traffic in a manner to prevent these long delay times. Long periods of delay are caused by external parameters such as storm, fog, mechanical problems, pilot-absence and others. Since external parameters are not used in the basic state simulation used above, the long waiting times as shown above are only created by ships that keep failing to receive permission to sail since ships from Zona Comun to Buenos Aires keep departing. Although these unlucky ships do not seem realistic, they allow ships from Zona Comun to Buenos Aires to proceed on their voyage with less delay time. In other words, the waiting of vessels at Buenos Aires allows the ships towards Buenos Aires to sail with less delay. It should be understood that in reality the waiting times experienced by ships requesting departure from Buenos Aires are partially distributed over arriving vessels. Based on this consideration, the output values that seem unreasonable are to be used as well when performing capacity studies for the Rio de la Plata by use of Platasim. Note: When during simulations the external parameters will be used, the waiting times created by these parameters will be mixed with the occasional large waiting times as they are already created without external parameters. This complicates the analysis of the output when external parameters are used.
5.5 Total waiting time analysis

This section analyses how the total mean waiting experienced by a ship is build up. 'Total' refers to the entire life of one ship in Platasim. What Table 5-3 showed were, for basic state, the mean waiting times at different points in the system. Section 5.3 analysed how the mean waiting time at service points is distributed over the passing vessels. Now the variation around the total mean waiting time will be looked at in detail. Table 5-4 shows again the total mean waiting time (tmwt) as resulted by Platasim for basic state simulation. For fleet 1, 14 and 16 for each ship the total waiting time in Rio de la Plata were recorded. How these times are distributed around the mean-value is shown in the following figures.
Total mean waiting time Basic State 1 BACONTL 181 2 BAPAS 3 BABULKL 124 4 BATANKL 129 5 BATANKM 120 6 BAGENCAL 153 7 BAGENCAM 119 8 RLPBULKL 58 9 RLPTANKL 67 10 RLPTANKM 57 11 RLP_IP80TANKS 68 12 RLP_BATANKS 95 All values in minutes
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
RLP_IP80GENCAS IP80EMBULKXL IP80EMBULKL IP80MGBULKXL IP80ZCMGBULKXL IP80MGBULKL IP80TANKL IP80TANKM IP80CONTL IP80GENCAL IP80GENCAM IP130BULKXL IP130TANKS
74 86 90 77 87 74 97 85 110 106 82 96 81
Table 5-4 Total mean waiting time Basic state The cumulative distribution functions (Figure 5-4) can be used to determine the percentage of ships experiencing waiting time below a certain value. E.g it can be read that 60% (0.6 in figure) will experience a waiting time below 200 minutes.
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The distribution of waiting times at service points has the character of a steep descending line. This means short waiting times for a large number of vessels towards high waiting times for a small number of vessels. Examples were given within the previous sections. When ships are simulated to travel through the model, they visit a number of service points where checked to proceed. With every point they have a large chance to experience a short waiting time within the range of 0 to 25 minutes. When visiting multiple ports and waiting areas in the model, the chances of meeting a large waiting time increase. This explains that a more gradual distribution of the total waiting time is to be expected.
Bacontl
number of ships 100 80 60 40 20 0
0 50 10 0 15 0 20 0 25 0 30 0 35 0 40 0 45 0 50 0 55 0 60 0
Bacontl
1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0
0 50 10 0 15 0 20 0 25 0 30 0 35 0 40 0 45 0 50 0 55 0 60 0
total w aiting tim e range [m inutes]
Percentage
total w aiting tim e range[m inutes]
mean total wt: 181 minutes Figure 5-3 Bacontl total waiting time per ship
Figure 5-4 Cumulative distribution function

Ip80embulkxl
1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0
0 50 10 0 15 0 20 0 25 0 30 0 35 0 40 0 45 0 50 0 55 0 60 0
Ip80embulkxl
number of ships 50 40 30 20 10 0
0 50 10 0 15 0 20 0 25 0 30 0 35 0 40 0 45 0 50 0 55 0 60 0
Percentage
total w aiting tim e range
mean total wt: 86 minutes Figure 5-5 Ip80embulkxl total w.t. per ship
Ip80mgbulkxl
number of ships 200 150 100 50 0
0 50 10 0 15 0 20 0 25 0 30 0 35 0 40 0 45 0 50 0 55 0 60 0

Ip80mgbulkxl
1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0
Percentage
total w aiting tim e range [m inutes
mean total wt: 77 minutes Figure 5-7 Ip80mgbulkxl total w.t. per ship
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5.6 Influence external parameters

This section reviews the influence of external parameters on the simulation results.
5.6.1 Fog
Based on analysis of meteorological data and pilot experience, fog periods are set to occur 20 times per year with a uniform distributed duration between two to five hours. Ten runs are performed in order to compare the fog influence in reference to the basic state. For three different fleets the results are compared between fog and no fog. Bacontl fleet 1 Ip80mgbulkxl fleet 16 Ip80tankl fleet 19 Table 5-5 shows the mean waiting time after ten runs for three fleets at different points in the Rio de la Plata.
Fleet ID 1 Bacontl 16 Ip80mgbulkxl 19 Ip80tankl Zona Comun no fog fog 32.6 33.9 25.8 28.3 38.1 43 All values in minutes Buenos Aires no fog fog 60.8 62.2 WA64 no fog fog 18.9 22.5 NB SHIPS 769 19.8 546 24.4 136
Table 5-5 Mean waiting time with and without fog (Over ten runs) The influence of fog seems rather low in comparison to the runs where no fog was simulated. It is however important to understand that fog can create a train effect in the waterway. When a ship is told to hold at a port or waiting area, the departure queue will become more crowded over time by other vessels also requesting departure. When the fog period is over and the vessels in queue are given clearance to proceed on their voyage, they will form a train of vessels. Throughout the waterway system, these trains block certain sections for a longer period of time. This possibly forces other ships to pile up at different queues, creating a train of vessels themselves. The frequency of departure from, for instance, the port of Buenos Aires is three vessels per day in 2002. Considering this rate in reference to the fog duration, a large train is not to be expected.
5.6.2 Storm
The simulation of storm in Platasim is similar to the simulation of fog, however the duration of storm periods are larger. They are set to vary uniform between five to ten hours. Ten runs are performed in order to compare the storm influence in reference to the basic state. The weather component fog is turned of in this simulation.For three different fleets the results are compared between storms and no storms. Bacontl fleet 1 Ip80mgbulkxl fleet 16 Ip80tankl fleet 19 Table 5.5 shows the mean waiting time after ten runs for three fleets at different points in the Rio de la Plata.
Fleet ID 1 Bacontl 16 Ip80mgbulkxl 19 Ip80tankl Zona Comun Buenos Aires WA64 no storm storm no storm storm no storm storm NB SHIPS 32.6 39.6 60.8 68.1 769 25.8 32.7 18.9 23.7 546 38.1 49.7 22.5 27 136 All values in minutes
Table 5-6 Comparison mean waiting time storm and no storm (Over ten runs) The influence of storm is significant and will be taken into account for capacities studies performed by Platasim.
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5.6.3 Tidal windows

In Platasim the tidal windows are set to be applied for xl bulk carriers in the direction of Ponton Recalada. In order to pass two points in the waterway with small depth at km.37 in Emilio Mitre channel and km.189 in Punta Indio channel, six-hour windows are used. These windows are checked at WA64 and WA99 (Figure 5-9). Due to wind set-up the windows are applied 27 percent of time per year.
WA64 no tw tw 18.3 45.5 18.9 50 19.4 52.2 values in minutes tw = tidal window WA99 no tw tw 22.7 73 24.6 77.7 24.9 75.8
Fleet ID 14 Ip80embulkxl 16 Ip80mgbulkxl 17 Ip80zcmgbulkxl
Table 5-7 Comparison mean waiting time with and without tidal windows (tw) (over one run)
Figure 5-9 Tidal window: Check points WA64 and WA99 First the increase of waiting time experienced at WA64 is reviewed. 27 Percent of time per year an xl-bulk carrier passes this point during a day in which a tidal window is active. A tidal window holds the departure of these vessels 2 times 6 hours per day. If a vessel is to arrive in a closed window, his average delay will be 3 hours. Simple math shows that the average waiting time at WA64 purely caused by tide would be 40.5 minutes. Table 5-7 shows an increase of waiting time, however relative small to the waiting time that already exists without tidal windows. This is explained by the fact that if more than one xl-bulk carrier is waiting for a tidal window, the first ship helps the other vessels to leave without conflict. The waiting times experienced at WA99 are larger due to the fact that window are based on critical points at different places. Therefore, if a ship is allowed to leave from WA64 towards WA99, he has less better chance to arrive there with an open tidal window.
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400 350 number of ships 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

20 0 25 0 40 0
TIDAL WINDOWS NO TIDAL WINDOWS
45 0
30 0
50 10 0
15 0
waiting time range [minutes]
Figure 5-10 Comparison mean waiting time at WA64 with and without tidal windows for fleet 16 xl bulk carriers Figure 5-10 shows how the waiting time distribution experienced at WA64 for fleet 16 varies if tidal windows are used or not. Typical is the bulb around 330 minutes recorded during simulation with tidal windows. This area shows the vessels forced to wait by tidal windows. The mean point of this bulb is located to the right of 300 minutes. These extra thirty minutes are due to waterway occupation. Conclusion: The inserted tidal window creates results have been reviewed and match the expected behaviour. The tidal windows create logical waiting times.
5.7 Influence of passenger vessels

Approximately fifty passenger ships (Cruise-ships) visit the port of Buenos Aires each year. As already explained in chapter four, the Maritime Agent onboard the passenger vessels requests at PNA a passage through the Rio de la Plata without the encounter of other vessels. Considering the length of the channel towards Buenos Aires, this is bound to put stress on traffic flow. This section evaluates the results of simulation runs in which 50 passenger vessels are created. The created passenger vessels are simulated to arrive uniform distributed over the year. Table 5-8 shows the large increase in mean waiting time for almost all generated fleets. The figures are averaged over four simulations. Fleets that arrive and leave through Ponton Recalada experience the largest increases caused by the long waterway towards Zona Comun. In detail the waiting time distribution at WA99 for the outbound going vessels of fleet 16 (xl bulk carriers) are studied.
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50 0
55 0
60 0
60
Mean waiting time increase no pas pas 1 BACONTL 182 300 118 2 BAPAS 0 30 30 3 BABULKL 134 210 76 4 BATANKL 125 228 103 5 BATANKM 139 217 78 6 BAGENCAL 128 257 129 7 BAGENCAM 123 183 60 8 RLPBULKL 74 117 43 9 RLPTANKL 63 148 85 10 RLPTANKM 63 126 63 11 RLP_IP80TANKS 75 86 11 12 RLP_BATANKS 106 133 27 13 RLP_IP80GENCAS 76 113 37 14 IP80EMBULKXL 80 179 99 15 IP80EMBULKL 93 177 84 16 IP80MGBULKXL 84 164 80 17 IP80ZCMGBULKXL 83 166 83 18 IP80MGBULKL 81 151 70 19 IP80TANKL 108 206 98 20 IP80TANKM 90 172 82 21 IP80CONTL 118 213 95 22 IP80GENCAL 120 207 87 23 IP80GENCAM 92 172 80 24 IP130BULKXL 89 187 98 25 IP130TANKS 105 102 -3 values in minutes pas = passenger vessels
Table 5-8 Comparison mean waiting time with and without passenger vessels
Basic state
Fleet 16 at WA99
400 350
Number of ships Passenger vessels Number of ships No passenger vessels
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Passenger vessels No passenger vessels
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600
0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600
w aiting time range[minutes]
w aiting tim e range [m inutes]
Figure 5-11 Comparison waiting time fleet 16 at WA99 with and without passenger vessels Figure 5-11 shows how a significant number of vessels experiences large waiting times at WA99 caused by passenger vessels that request entrance at Ponton Recalada.
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Conclusion: The large waiting times caused by the passenger vessels that are experienced by a few ships per fleet heavily influences the mean waiting time. The rules around passenger vessels are set very strong in Platasim. However the rules on crossing between passenger and cargo vessels are not on paper. Each situation is interpreted by PNA which directs the cargo traffic to allow safe passage of passenger vessels. The large influence of passenger vessels on the model are therefore questionable, considering the fact that PNA will create a more fluent flow of traffic than is now simulated by Platasim. A more thorough study should analyse the exact system behaviour to these vessels. Capacity studies in chapter six will performed with and without passenger vessels. The results of Platasim are twisted by the passenger vessels, making it difficult to study the behaviour of the model in a normal state. Normal state refers to the situation where only cargo vessels navigate the waterway.
5.8 Influence difference sailing speed

In chapter four the sailing speeds for each type of cargo vessels were set to different values for different waterway sections (Table 5-9).
Channel Punta Indio, Intermedio, Banco Chico, Rada Exterior Container 14 Tanker 12 Bulk carrier 11 General Cargo 12 Passenger 15
Emilio Mitre 10 10 Martin Garcia 10 10 Canal de Accesso 10 10 Table 5-9 Ship velocity [knots] used in Platasim
10 10 10
10 10 10
14 14
Especially between Zona Comun and Ponton Recalada, the sailing speeds are set to vary. This will result in faster ships being denied departure from certain check-points (e.g. WA99) for they would overtake slower vessels in prohibited sections. Since they are told to wait, other slower vessels might receive permission to sail possibly creating another conflict for the faster vessel still waiting for departure. It reality it can be expected that the faster vessel would receive permission to depart with a reduced speed, not allowing other slower vessels to jump the queue (push in). This section compares the waiting times experienced from basic state to a simulation where navigation speeds are the same in each section for all types of vessels. Therefore, the resulted waiting times will be caused by crossing conflicts only and no overtake-conflicts. All sections from km.37 to km.239 are to be sailed by all vessels with a speed of 12 knots.
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Basic state
Mean waiting time Different Same speed speed Change 1 BACONTL 182 132 -50 2 BAPAS 0 0 0 3 BABULKL 134 96 -39 4 BATANKL 125 106 -19 5 BATANKM 139 99 -41 6 BAGENCAL 128 138 10 7 BAGENCAM 123 89 -34 8 RLPBULKL 74 87 13 9 RLPTANKL 63 71 8 10 RLPTANKM 63 57 -6 11 RLP_IP80TANKS 75 69 -6 12 RLP_BATANKS 106 78 -28 13 RLP_IP80GENCAS 76 74 -3 14 IP80EMBULKXL 80 99 19 15 IP80EMBULKL 93 105 12 16 IP80MGBULKXL 84 92 8 17 IP80ZCMGBULKXL 83 87 4 18 IP80MGBULKL 81 85 4 19 IP80TANKL 108 107 -1 20 IP80TANKM 90 87 -3 21 IP80CONTL 118 107 -11 22 IP80GENCAL 120 110 -10 23 IP80GENCAM 92 85 -7 24 IP130BULKXL 89 117 28 25 IP130TANKS 105 67 -38 All values in minutes
Table 5-10 Comparison mean waiting time with uniform navigation speed Table 5-10 shows how for fleets the mean waiting time changes both positive and negative when sailing speeds are set to one value for all ships. For instance, the loaded bulk carriers from WA99 towards Ponton Recalada are obstructed more by inbound loaded container vessels since they occupy the waterway for a longer period (14 12 knots). For these inbound container carriers, the waiting time on arrival is reduced because the outbound loaded bulk carriers travel at slightly higher speeds occupying the channel for a shorter period (11 12 knots). Also should be mentioned that although a large reduction in total waiting time for fleet 1 (container) is shown, this fleet sails with reduced speed (14 12 knots). Between Zona Comun and Ponton Recalada this fleet experiences shorter waiting times since no overtaking issues occur. The reduced speed however increases the total time in the system for this fleet. Conclusion: It is clear that significant differences exist in results between the simulation with uniform and different speed. Setting all vessels to one speed changes the total turn around time for some ships. Due to the complexity of fleets and sections it is difficult to determine what is most realistic for simulation purposes. Platasim will use the different navigation speeds as they were set in chapter 4.
5.9 Conclusions
Throughout this chapter various aspects of the Platasim model were reviewed. For the use of Platasim for capacity studies in chapter six, the following conclusions are drawn:
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Small differences in results exist between simulation runs of one year. The results of a small number of simulations can be used to determine trends. The passenger vessels put a heavy load on the waterway system. How passage without crossing of cargo vessels takes place is directed by PNA. The exact behaviour of the system to passenger vessels is not known. As currently implemented in Platasim, the total waiting times increase very heavily. This behaviour is questionable. Passenger vessels will not be used for capacity studies, since they blur the behaviour of the model in the normal situation. Tidal windows will be used for xl bulk carriers outbound through Emilio Mitre. The external parameter fog closes certain waiting areas and ports for a period between two to five hours. The external parameter storm closes certain waiting areas and ports for a period between five to ten hours. Analysis of the waiting times show that on occasion vessels keep missing a window to depart from a certain check-point (port or waiting area). These vessels experience a waiting time that in reality is unlikely to occur. However, the waiting of a vessel is always related to departure/sailing of another vessel. The large values that seem unrealistic are therefore not neglected and are used for the determination of total average waiting times.
The records on traffic in 2002 show the time of departure from Ponton Recalada and the ports situated in the Rio de la Plata and Paran river. This information is not sufficient for a validation of the model and the generated results. Based on the evaluation of results as they are discussed in this chapter, the model is accepted and will be used in chapter six for capacity studies.
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6.
Capacity study Rio de la Plata
6.1 Introduction
To study the traffic flow through the Rio de la Plata waterways, the simulation model Harboursim is used. Described in earlier chapters Platasim, a Harboursim model, was created to simulate the traffic flow of cargo vessels and the experienced waiting times at ports and waiting areas. After analysis of the performance of Platasim performed in chapter five, the model will now be used to study the capacity of the waterway system in the Rio de la Plata. First the capacity definition is repeated. Capacity: Capacity is the maximum traffic intensity that can be facilitated in the waterway with a certain level of service. The level of service can be expressed in waiting time (delay time) experienced by traffic when using the waterway system. Whether a capacity is high, low, acceptable or unacceptable is subjective for each different user. As a point of reference, section 6.2 describes the turn around times for the twenty five fleets that are defined in Platasim. Chapter seven will look into the economic aspects of maritime transport for both bulk and container carriers. Three capacity studies are performed by Platasim: Case I: repeated increase of annual number of ships for all fleets with 10% Case II: change of traffic based on predictions to year 2020 and extended to 2030 Case III: Rerouting dry-bulk carriers through the Emilio Mitre-Martin Garcia channels Case IV: Use of Platasim with fifty passenger vessels per year and increase of traffic as predicted to 2020 and extended to 2030. Ad 1. In case I the number of ships for each fleet per year is increased with 10% each simulation run. Although this increase is not expected at present, this study is performed in order to investigate the response of the Rio de la Plata traffic to this increase. This case can also indicate the maximum number of ships that can travel through the Rio de la Plata without a traffic jam. Ad 2. Case II simulates the behaviour of the traffic flow after changes of traffic intensity as predicted up to year 2020. In addition the predicted rate of change from 2015 to 2020 has been extended to 2025 and 2030 for which no predictions are available. The predictions show (page 14, Table 1-4) that both increase in bulk and container traffic is to be expected. The number of annual tankers through the Rio de la Plata remains the same. The number of general cargo vessels declines. Ad 3. In this study the rerouting of dry bulk carriers with inland destinations is applied. This study is performed in order to determine if waiting times can be reduced if less vessels have to cross each other within the Martin Garcia and Emilio Mitre channels. Ad 4. In section 5.7, the influence of passenger ships on the traffic flow was reviewed. The strong rule of noencounter with cargo-vessels heavily increased the waiting-times for almost all fleets. Further study should be performed to be able to describe the passage of passenger vessels in detail. In this case-study, the traffic intensity is changed as in study II (year 2002 to 2030). Fifty passenger vessels per year are set to travel from the Atlantic Ocean to Buenos Aires and back.
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The results of simulation are shown by graphs in this chapter. Appendix N shows the results in numbers behind these graphs. The combined conclusion of the cases are written in section 6.7 at the end of this chapter.
6.2 Points of reference 6.2.1 Turn around time

In order to create a point of reference for the interpretation of the results as they will be described in this chapter, the total turn around times for all fleets are written in Table 6-1. These turn around times are the summation of the voyage time towards a certain destination, the mean service time at port and the voyage time back to point of origin. The turn around times, based on the records on ships in 2002 as used previously, vary from two to seven days. It should be noted that within the turn around times, also the time spend inland is taken into account. E.g. the turn around time of fleet 18 ( bulk carrier to inland) also includes the voyage time towards Rosario/San Lorenzo/San Nicolas and back to IP80.
days 1 BACONTL 1.9 2 BAPAS 1.5 3 BABULKL 5.6 4 BATANKL 4.0 5 BATANKM 4.0 6 BAGENCAL 3.8 7 BAGENCAM 3.8 8 RLPBULKL 5.3 9 RLPTANKL 3.7 10 RLPTANKM 3.7 11 RLP_IP80TANKS * 3.6 4.9 12 RLP_BATANKS 3.3 13 RLP_IP80GENCAS 3.3 4.6 * Different inland destination
Table 6-1 Turn around times
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
days IP80EMBULKXL 7.2 IP80EMBULKL 7.2 IP80MGBULKXL 6.7 IP80ZCMGBULKXL 6.7 IP80MGBULKL 6.7 IP80TANKL * 4.2 5.5 IP80TANKM * 4.2 5.5 IP80CONTL 2.2 IP80GENCAL * 4.0 5.2 IP80GENCAM * 4.0 5.2 IP130BULKXL 6.9 IP130TANKS 3.9
In addition to the turn around times within Rio de la Plata and the inland wet infrastructure, rough indications on intercontinental voyage times vary from 15 days for Brazil to Europe up to almost 40 days for vessels from Australia to Europe. The results of case II will be compared to the turn around times from the table above.
6.2.2 Velocity vs. sail time

When considering the waiting times, as they will be produced by simulation described in the upcoming sections, it is important to understand how a waiting time is build up. Chapter three mentioned that a waiting time as recorded by Platasim does not imply a full stop (laying idle) in reality but a speed reduction in order to avoid conflict by rules in certain sections. The studied set of waterways from the Rio de la Plata has a total length of over more than 300 kilometres. This extensiveness of the waterways therefore creates a lot of possibility to avoid prohibited encounters by speed reduction or increase. Appendix I shows a table that can be used to compare sail times over different distances with different velocities. A short example is given below.
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Example Suppose a tanker vessel at Zona Comun that is directed towards IP80 has to wait for thirty minutes simulated by Platasim. This time can be created by sailing the distance from Zona Comun (km.57) to km.37 with a sail velocity reduced from 12 to 8 knots. In Figure 6-1 the section sailed with reduced speed is marked yellow. This example briefly indicates that the extensiveness of the studied waterways creates large possibilities to avoid conflicts by sail speed adjustment. Figure 6-1 Section sail with reduced sailing speed
6.3 Case study I: Repeated 10% increase number of ships 6.3.1 Set-up and results
In this capacity study, Platasim is used to calculate the mean waiting times for vessels after repeated increase of generated ships with 10% for all fleets. The external parameters fog, storm and tidal windows are used as described in chapter four. The number of passenger vessels is set to zero. Each simulation increases the number of ships per fleet with 10% in reference to the previous one ( Figure 6-2). Appendix N shows the number of ships specified for each fleet for each simulation. Simulation number 1 represents the number of ships recorded in year 2002. It should be stressed that an annual increase of 10% of the number of ships is not expected at present. This case is performed as a background for case 2 (section 6.4) where predictions on traffic intensity are used for simulation. It also indicates the maximum traffic intensity that can travel through the model without a traffic jam.
7868 Sim ulated traffic increase 7134 8000 5941 Total number of ships 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Sim ulation run 5394 4914 4454 6540
4047
3681
Figure 6-2 Number of ships per run with 10% increase
3349
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Mean waiting time [minutes]
mean waiting time [minutes]
1000 800 600 400 200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Sim ulation run Bacontl Batankm Babulkl Bagencal Batankl Bagencam
1000 800 600 400 200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 sim ulation run Rlp_ip80tanks Rlp_ip80gencas Rlp_Batanks Rlp130tanks
Figure 6-3Results for traffic to Buenos Aires
Figure 6-4Results for traffic from La Plata
600 400 200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Sim ulation run
800
800 600 400 200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Sim ulation run Ip80tankl Ip80gencal Ip80tankm Ip80gencam Ip80contl
Ip80embulkxl Ip80zcmgbulkxl
Ip80embulkl Ip80mgbulkl
Ip80mgbulkxl Ip130bulkxl
Figure 6-5 results for bulk carriers to IP80 and IP130
Figure 6-6 Results for tankers and gen. cargo to IP80
1000 Mean waiting time [minutes] 800 600 400 200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 sim ulation run Rlpbulkl Rlptankl Rlptankm
Figure 6-7 Results for traffic to La Plata from Ponton Recalada
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6.3.2 Result analysis

Reviewing the results as presented in the figures above, the following remark can be made: The graphs show a clear ascending line throughout the simulation runs as could be expected. Around run number five, where almost 5000 vessels use the Rio de la Plata, the total mean waiting times for almost all fleets exceed 200 minutes. After run 10, with almost 8000 vessels per year, Platasim calculates total mean waiting times varying from ten to thirteen hours for different fleets. It has to be stressed that these results represent mean values. In general it can be seen from the results that up to run five, where 4900 vessels use the Rio de la Plata, the mean waiting times have increased relatively small in reference to the results of run 1. Comparing the waiting times between run 1 and 10, the fleets towards Buenos Aires show an increase of mean waiting time by 400%. Comparing the waiting times between run 1 and 10, the cargo vessels to IP130 and IP80 show an increase of mean waiting time by 300%. Comparing the waiting times between run 1 and 10, the cargo vessels to La Plata show an increase of mean waiting time by 800%. An 11th simulation producing 8700 vessels created an average waiting time of 1300 minutes. These results were not added in the graphs. Based on these results Platasim is expected to jam at around 9000 vessels per year. To interpret the large increase of waiting times around run 10, it is interesting to review at what service points in the model these waiting times are experienced. In other words, it is interesting to see where the congestion exist that leads to large total waiting times. To study the distribution of waiting times over the service points, for 4 different fleets the results of simulation runs one and ten are compared in Table 6-2 .
Ponton Recalada
Buenos Aires
RUN WT % WT % WT % WT % WT 1 53 25.1 41 19.4 66 31.3 51 10 212 24.0 298 33.7 228 25.8 146 Ip80mgbulkxl 35 20.6 57 33.5 78 1 309 56.4 93 17 146 10 Ip130bulkxl 1 36 28.3 29 10 307 55.2 130 Ip80tankm 1 31 33.7 27 29.3 34 10 367 64.0 90 15.7 116 WT= waiting time [minutes] % = percentage of WT at service point to total WT Bacontl
Table 6-2 waiting time at service points for run 1 and 10 The table above shows that a shift exist in the distribution of waiting times over the service-points. An important part is played by service-point Zona Comun where inbound traffic towards BsAs, IP80 or IP130 is checked to sail without conflict. The traffic increase from run 1 to 10 multiples the waiting times by ten at Zona Comun. The waiting times at WA99 for vessels towards Ponton Recalada are increased with a ratio of four. The largest congestion after traffic increase is experienced by vessels that are 'checked' on their inbound voyage towards Canal de Accesso/Emilio Mitre and Martin Garcia channel. The bottlenecks, points of congestion, that are cause to this congestion are: Points km.37 : At this point in the waterway system where the channels Martin Garcia, Canal de Accesso and Rada Exterior meet, traffic rules prohibited encounters within the proximity of this point.
Zona Comun
WA120
WA64
WA99
% WT % TOTAL WT 24.2 211 16.5 884 45.9 170 26.6 548 22.8 62 48.8 127 23.4 119 21.4 556 37.0 92 20.2 573
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Point km.12: At this point the channels Emilio Mitre and Canal de Accesso meet. Encounters are prohibited within four kilometres to this points. The traffic inbound through Martin Garcia channel is bothered by the few outbound vessels (tankers and large bulk carriers). Logically an increase of traffic intensity increases this congestion. Oppositely, traffic outbound is bothered by traffic inbound.
Additionally, the increases of waiting times per simulation are discussed. What can be seen from Figure 6-8 and Figure 6-9 below, are the increases of waiting times in minutes in reference to the previous run. Up to run five the waiting times keep increasing up to around 50 minutes per run. From run 6 and further, the increase of waiting time per run increases more rapidly with 50 to 100 minutes per simulation. This is asymptotic behaviour is logic and to be expected in congestion problems.
300
waiting time increase [minutes]
250 200 150 100 50 0 1 2 3 4 5

Simulation number
10
BAPAS BATANKM RLPBULKL RLP_IP80TANKS IP80EMBULKXL
BABULKL BAGENCAL RLPTANKL RLP_BATANKS
BATANKL BAGENCAM RLPTANKM RLP_IP80GENCAS
Figure 6-8 Increase of mean waiting time per simulation for fleet 1-12
waiting time increase [minutes] 250 200 150 100 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Simulation number 8 9 10
IP80EMBULKXL IP80ZCMGBULKXL IP80TANKM IP80GENCAM
IP80EMBULKL IP80MGBULKL IP80CONTL IP130BULKXL
IP80MGBULKXL IP80TANKL IP80GENCAL IP130TANKS
Figure 6-9 Increase of mean waiting time per simulation for fleet 13-25
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6.3.3. Conclusions
For ten simulations the number of ships through the system has been increased with 10% in reference to the previous simulation. The first simulation was set to be the year 2002. The large waiting times of around 300 and more minutes are unlikely to be accepted as an average. The results indicate the number of ships where the Rio de la Plata, as imitated by Platasim, does not allow fluent passage of vessels. The following conclusions can be drawn after analysis of the results. Around run 5, where almost 5000 vessels were set to be generated by Platasim, the waiting times for approximately all fleets had doubled in reference to run 1 where around 3300 were generated. At run 10, that generated eight thousand vessels, the waiting times for the various fleets had increased varying from three to eight times in reference to run 1. Heavy traffic increase as simulated by run 10 shows that congestion is experienced by ships that are to sail towards Canal de Accesso, Emilio Mitre and Martin Garcia. These vessels experience this congestion when 'checked' at Zona Comun. This congestion can be assigned to the rules on encounters that exist around points km.12 and km.37. The traffic through Martin Garcia in both directions is bothered by traffic in the opposite direction. Increase of traffic intensity therefore leads to increase of waiting times for vessels in both directions. A complete jam of traffic is expected at 9000 vessels.
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6.4 Case study II: Change of traffic based on predictions to yr. 2020 6.4.1 Set-up and results
The capacity study for the Rio de la Plata is now performed based on the number of ships predicted to travel through the system in the years 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 (Table 6-3). Comparing the data used in this thesis for 2002 with the total predicted number of vessels in 2005 shows a difference of almost 800 for the total number of vessels. This can be explained by the fact that small vessels (<24 feet draught) on certain routes are not taken into account, since they are not considered to influence traffic flow.
Predicted number of vessels
Type
Range design draught [ft]
recorded 2002
year 2005
year 2010 147
year 2015
year 2020
Bulk carrier
Tankers
Container carrier
General cargo and others
15-32 32-38 >38 total 15-32 32-38 >38 total 15-32 32-38 >38 total 15-32 32-38 >38 total
1310
780
875
463 3428
147 623 665 1435 523 276 144 943 238 229 410 878 685 260 87 1031 4287
718 765 1629

523
276 144 943

238
255 458 951

685
203 68 955 4478
147 825 879 1851 523 276 144 943 238 284 509 1032 685 151 50 886 4712
147 947 1010 2104 523 276 144 943 238 316 567 1121 685 104 35 824 4992
[source: Hidrova S.A.] Table 6-3 Predicted number of cargo vessels The number of vessels belonging to 'general cargo and others' differs relatively very much between the extracted number for 2002 and the predicted numbers of 2005. This is assigned to the fact that several types of other cargo are not considered to influence the flow of traffic. E.g. the arener-vessels (push-barge sand carriers) have low priority in the system. Also the small vessels (draught <24 feet) on certain routes are not simulated. Since the predicted numbers of vessels is not specified by port or destination, this capacity study will assume proportional change of traffic for all distinguished fleets. Table 6-3 uses a different classification by draught then are important for the navigation rules valid in the waterway, because the exact distribution per range of draught is not given, proportional change of traffic will be applied for each type of cargo.
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year 2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
BULK % 0.0 9.5 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.7
TANKER % 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CONTAINER % 0.0 0.3 8.3 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.6
GENCA % 0.0 0.0 -15.1 -17.6 -19.1 -19.1 -19.1
Table 6-4 Percentage change of number of ships referenced to previous year (five years earlier) Table 6-4 shows how the number of ships per type of cargo change as a percentage to the previous predicted year. The change rates have extended the number of ships to 2030. Table 6-5 shows the number of ships that will be created during the simulations.
Bulk carrier year 2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1310 1435 1629 1854 2104 2392 2720 Tanker 780 780 780 780 780 780 780 Container carrier 875 875 951 1032 1121 1217 1322 General cargo 463 463 393 324 262 212 172 total 3428 3553 3753 3990 4267 4602 4994
Table 6-5 Number of ships per year per type of cargo The external parameters fog, storm and tidal windows are used as described in chapter four. The number of passenger vessels is set to zero. The results for this case are based of four runs for each simulated year. The results in numbers are presented in Appendix N. The number of ships generated in simulation on occasion differs from the numbers table above. This can be explained by the random generation of vessels.

Figure 6-10 to Figure 6-14 show the mean waiting times for different fleets after the change of trafficintensity as predicted to 2020 and interpolated to 2030. Comparison of the results from 2002 and 2030 shows percentage increase of waiting times varying from 60 to 160 percent (Table 6-6). The result figures show a slow increase of waiting times. Note: The results presented by Figure 6-10 to Figure 6-14 show for certain fleets on occasion a drop in waiting time. These drops are caused by the fact that some fleets profit from the decrease in the number of general cargo vessels.
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total mean waiting time [minutes]
400 300 200 100 0 2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 simulated year BACONTL BATANKM BABULKL BAGENCAL BATANKL BAGENCAM
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 simulated year
IP80EMBULKXL IP80ZCMGBULKXL
IP80EMBULKL IP80MGBULKL
IP80MGBULKXL IP130BULKXL
Figure 6-10 Results for ships to Buenos Aires
Figure 6-11 Results for bulk carriers to IP80 and IP130
250 200 150 100 50 0 2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 sim ulated year RLPBULKL RLPTANKL RLPTANKM
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 sim ulated year RLP_IP80TANKS RLP_IP80GENCAS RLP_BATANKS LP_IP130TANKS
Figure 6-12 Results for ships to La Plata
Figure 6-13 Results from La Plata to other port
300 200 100 0 2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 sim ulated year IP80TANKL IP80GENCAL IP80TANKM IP80GENCAM IP80CONTL
Figure 6-14 Results ships to IP80 general cargo, tanker, container
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
BACONTL BAPAS BABULKL BATANKL BATANKM BAGENCAL BAGENCAM RLPBULKL RLPTANKL RLPTANKM RLP_IP80TANKS RLP_BATANKS
2002 207 143 146 133 175 147 98 93 76 95 135
2020 274 174 193 181 225 191 126 137 137 129 167
% 32.1 21.9 31.6 36.8 28.2 30.0 28.7 47.3 80.2 36.0 23.9
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
RLP_IP80GENCAS IP80EMBULKXL IP80EMBULKL IP80MGBULKXL IP80ZCMGBULKXL IP80MGBULKL IP80TANKL IP80TANKM IP80CONTL IP80GENCAL IP80GENCAM IP130BULKXL IP130TANKS
2002 101 179 130 178 186 114 147 114 142 142 118 121 110
2020 121 223 177 211 221 154 197 161 198 212 153 187 170
% 19.0 24.3 36.5 18.6 19.0 35.2 33.4 40.8 39.0 49.5 29.9 53.8 55.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
BACONTL BAPAS BABULKL BATANKL BATANKM BAGENCAL BAGENCAM RLPBULKL RLPTANKL RLPTANKM RLP_IP80TANKS RLP_BATANKS
2002 207 143 146 133 175 147 98 93 76 95 135
2030 335 229 244 279 289 235 191 213 200 155 186
% 61.8 60.5 67.0 110.4 64.6 60.6 95.6 128.5 163.4 64.0 37.6
13 RLP_IP80GENCAS 14 IP80EMBULKXL 15 IP80EMBULKL 16 IP80MGBULKXL 17 IP80ZCMGBULKXL 18 IP80MGBULKL 19 IP80TANKL 20 IP80TANKM 21 IP80CONTL 22 IP80GENCAL 23 IP80GENCAM 24 IP130BULKXL 25 IP130TANKS
2002 101 179 130 178 186 114 147 114 142 142 118 121 110
2030 160 265 219 255 260 206 263 224 258 264 239 254 253
% 57.8 47.9 68.7 43.4 39.9 81.1 78.6 96.3 81.0 85.9 102.5 109.7 130.6
All values in minutes Table 6-6 Comparison total waiting time 2002 to 2020 and 2030 To assess the increase of waiting times between 2002 and 2030, it is imperative to review where which waiting times are experienced. For four typical fleets the distribution of total waiting time over the various service-points in the system are compared. Both the absolute values of waiting time are shown as well as the percentage to the total waiting time (Table 6-7). What this table shows, is that the distribution of the total waiting over the VTS points does not change very much. A small shift can be seen towards Zona Comun where vessels are checked to sail towards Buenos Aires, IP80 or IP130.
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Bacontl Ip80mgbulkxl Ip130bulkxl Ip80tankm
YEAR WT % WT % WT % WT 2002 53 25.1 41 19.4 66 31.3 2030 103 30.8 70 21.0 87 26.0 35 20.6 57 2002 61 27.2 64 2030 2002 36 28.3 2030 60 26.9 2002 31 33.7 27 2030 96 44.7 53 WT= waiting time [minutes]
Table 6-7 Waiting time at service point for 2002 and 2030
6.4.3 Conclusion
This case study used Platasim to calculate waiting times after implementation of changes in traffic intensities as predicted to the year 2020 and extended to 2030. The following conclusions can be drawn from the simulation results. Up to the year 2020 the increase of total waiting per fleet increased varying from 18 to 80%. The simulation of the year 2020 generated 800 vessels more than 2002. The simulation of 2030 showed increases of waiting times varying from 60 to 160%. This simulation generated almost 5000 vessels; 1600 vessels more than generated in 2002. Although the increases of waiting times seem large, they are still relatively small in reference to the turn around times shown in section 6.2. Table 6-8 on the next page compares the waiting times as a percentage of the total time a vessels is within the system.
Ponton Recalada
Buenos Aires
Zona Comun
WA120
WA64 % 33.5 28.6 29.3 24.7
WT 51 74 78 99 29 58 34 66
WA99
% WT % TOTAL WT 24.2 211 22.2 334 45.9 170 44.2 224 22.8 62 48.8 127 26.0 105 47.1 223 37.0 92 30.7 215
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TTAT* Nr. Fleet [days] 1 BACONTL 1,9 2 BAPAS 3 BABULKL 5,6 4 BATANKL 4,0 5 BATANKM 4,0 6 BAGENCAL 3,8 7 BAGENCAM 3,8 8 RLPBULKL 5,3 9 RLPTANKL 3,7 10 RLPTANKM 3,7 11 RLP_IP80TANKS 4,2 12 RLP_BATANKS 3,3 13 RLP_IP80GENCAS 4,2 14 IP80EMBULKXL 7,2 15 IP80EMBULKL 7,2 16 IP80MGBULKXL 6,7 17 IP80ZCMGBULKXL 6,7 18 IP80MGBULKL 6,7 19 IP80TANKL 4,9 20 IP80TANKM 4,9 21 IP80CONTL 2,2 22 IP80GENCAL 4,9 23 IP80GENCAM 4,9 24 IP130BULKXL 6,9 25 IP130TANKS 3,9 *TTAT = Total Turn Around Time ** ST = Service Time in port
Total mean waiting time [in minutes and percentage of TTAT] 2002 2020 2030 value % value % value % 207 7,4% 274 9,8% 335 12,0% 143 146 133 175 147 98 93 76 95 135 101 179 130 178 186 114 147 114 142 142 118 121 110 1,8% 2,6% 2,3% 3,2% 2,7% 1,3% 1,8% 1,4% 1,6% 2,9% 1,7% 1,7% 1,3% 1,8% 1,9% 1,2% 2,1% 1,6% 4,4% 2,0% 1,7% 1,2% 2,0% 174 193 181 225 191 126 137 137 129 167 121 223 177 211 221 154 197 161 198 212 153 187 170 2,1% 3,4% 3,2% 4,2% 3,5% 1,6% 2,6% 2,6% 2,1% 3,6% 2,0% 2,2% 1,7% 2,2% 2,3% 1,6% 2,8% 2,3% 6,2% 3,0% 2,2% 1,9% 3,0% 229 244 279 289 235 191 213 200 155 186 160 265 219 255 260 206 263 224 258 264 239 254 253 2,8% 4,3% 4,9% 5,3% 4,4% 2,5% 4,0% 3,8% 2,6% 4,0% 2,6% 2,6% 2,1% 2,7% 2,7% 2,1% 3,7% 3,2% 8,0% 3,7% 3,4% 2,5% 4,5%
Mean ST** [days] 1,0 4,6 3,0 3,0 2,7 2,7 4,6 3,0 3,0 3,0 3,0 2,7 4,6 4,6 4,6 4,6 4,6 3,0 3,0 1,0 2,7 2,7 4,6 3,0
Table 6-8 Comparison results case II to total turn around time per fleet
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6.5 Case study III: Rerouting 6.5.1 Set-up and results

In chapter four it was described how a large number of vessels enter the inland through the Martin Garcia channel and leave through the Emilio Mitre channel. This is caused by mainly two conditions: 1. Martin Garcia connects the inland (e.g. Rosario, San Lorenzo) through the rivers Paran Bravo and Paran Guazu. These rivers provide a faster connection to the inland for they are less curved than the river Paran de las Palmas that connects the Emilio Mitre channel to the inland. 2. The Emilio Mitre channel allows passage of vessels with a draught up to 33/34 feet, where the Martin Garcia channel allows passage of vessels with a draught up to 31/32 feet. This difference creates economic benefit when the Emilio Mitre is travelled outbound towards Ponton Recalada. Records on traffic in the year 2002 show that still a number of cargo ships use the Emilio Mitre channel to sail towards the inland. Since the use of Emilio Mitre channel is limited to vessels up to a length of 230 meters, a number of bulk carriers leaves the inland loaded through Martin Garcia on their way to Ponton Recalada.
Emilio Mitre Martin Garcia ships % ships % to inland 272 25 836 75 to ocean 1023 92 85 8 Table 6-1 Number of bulk carriers for Emilio Mitre and Martin Garcia as recorded in 2002 (inland = ports on Paran river represented by IP80 and IP130)
What already was shown in case study I, was the fact that a heavy increase of traffic will create large congestion at both ends of Emilio Mitre and Martin Garcia channel. This study will reroute all bulk carriers with inland destinations. Bulk carriers that at present still enter the inland through Emilio Mitre will be set to use Martin Garcia. Also the large bulk carriers that normally leave the inland through Martin Garcia (LOA>230 m) are now set to leave through Emilio Mitre. ( note: this is not allowed at present time). The rerouting of certain traffic involves the following changes: All bulk traffic is set to use Martin Garcia in inland direction. All bulk traffic is set use Emilio Mitre when re-entering the Rio de la Plata with destination Ponton Recalada. ( in reality not allowed for vessels over a length of 230 m) Tanker, general cargo carriers and containers are set to hold their normal routes. Bulk carriers to Buenos Aires and La Plata are not rerouted. It should be stressed that this study is performed to research the behaviour of the model and the occurring congestion after rerouting of bulk carriers. It does not represent a realistic situation at present. During this study an increase of traffic with 10% per run will be used, as was done with case I. Run 1 again represents the traffic as recorded for 2002 (Figure 6-15). The simulation results for the different runs are shown in Figure 6-16. The result figures compare the total mean waiting times for four typical fleets. The results of this case in numbers are presented in Appendix N.
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7387
6806
8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
6220
5673
total number of ships
5233
4785
4369
3998
3672 2
Figure 6-15 Number of ships per run case III

3357 1
10
sim ulation num ber
800 600 400 200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 sim ulation num ber Ip80mgbulkxl case 1 Ip80mgbulxl case 3
1000 800 600 400 200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 sim ulation num ber Bacontl case1 Bacontl case3
1000 800 600 400 200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 sim ulation num ber Babulkl case I Babulkl case III
800 600 400 200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 sim ulation num ber Ip80tankl case 1 Ip80tankl case 3
Figure 6-16 Results Case III rerouting bulk carriers compared to case I

The results show again an increase of waiting time as a result of increase in traffic. What typically can be seen from the results is the fact that up to run 4 the difference in results between case I and case III are small. The rerouting of certain bulk carriers does not influence the experienced waiting times. From run 4 and further the rerouting creates lower waiting times in reference to case I where routes were applied as in 2002.
6.5.3
Conclusions
This case studied the behaviour of traffic and waiting times after a rerouting of bulk traffic with inland destinations. Based on three characteristics of the present use of the Emilio Mitre and Martin Garcia channel, this case was simulated:
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At present the majority of bulk carriers sail towards the inland unloaded using the Martin Garcia channel and leave the inland loaded through Emilio Mitre. A small number of bulk carriers uses the Emilio Mitre channel also on their way to the inland. A small number of bulk carriers leave the inland loaded through Martin Garcia. Their ship length, being larger than 230 meters, prohibits them to leave loaded through Emilio Mitre. This case rerouted all bulk carriers to the inland destinations through Martin Garcia channel on their voyage to the inland ports. They were set to leave the inland through Emilio Mitre. The results of this case study were compared to the results of case I. Based on the simulation results the following conclusions could be drawn: Up to run 4 where 4300 vessels use the Rio de la Plata no large difference exist between the results of case I and III. From run 4 and up to 10 the advantage of rerouting bulk carriers is clearly shown from the generated results. The mean waiting times for several fleets are 30% smaller in comparison with the mean waiting time as generated by case I. With increasing traffic, rerouting of bulk carriers is proven useful to reduce waiting times.
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6.6 Case study IV: Traffic change as predicted with passenger ships 6.6.1 Set-up and results
In this study fifty passenger vessels are set to pass every year. They demand from PNA to be able to navigate to and from Buenos Aires without the encounter of cargo-vessels. The change of traffic will be as predicted and used in study II, and shown in table below. In this simulation the external influences such as fog, storm and tidal windows are used in the same way as the three previous studies.
Bulk carrier year 2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1310 1435 1629 1854 2104 2392 2720 Tanker 780 780 780 780 780 780 780 Container carrier 875 875 951 1032 1121 1217 1322 General cargo 463 463 393 324 262 212 172 total 3428 3553 3753 3990 4267 4602 4994
Table 6-5 Number of ships per year per type of cargo The results from simulation are presented on the next page. The results are based on one run (one year) for every simulation. The results are commented in the next section. The results in numbers are displayed in Appendix N.

When reviewing the results a gradual increase again can be seen up to 2030. On occasion a drop in waiting time occurs. This can be explained by the fact that fleets consist of a small number of vessels and that one run (year) per simulation was performed. For small groups of vessels the influence of meeting a passenger vessel or not is relatively large. Only one run was simulated to stress this deviation. In order to interpret the results, the fleets that consist of a large number of ships should be reviewed. The fleets container ships to Buenos Aires (BACONTL) and the large bulk carriers (IP80MGBULKXL) respectively consist of around 800 and 500 ships per year. The results for the container fleet is shown in Figure 6-17. The bulk fleet is shown in Figure 6-20. Both fleets show a gradual increase as could be expected. The waiting time for the container vessels to Buenos Aires increases with 120 minutes from 2002 to 2030, an increase of 34%. In case II, with the same traffic increase but without passenger vessels, the waiting time increased by 135 minutes, being an increase of 61%. The waiting time for the bulk fleet increases with 100 minutes from 2002 to 2030, an increase of 40%. In case II, same traffic increase but without passenger vessels, the waiting time increased by 77 minutes, being an increase of 43%.
6.6.3 Conclusions
The following conclusions can be drawn: For fleets that consist of a small number of ships, the waiting time is heavily depending on the times a vessels is obstructed by a passenger vessels. For the container vessels to Buenos Aires the absolute increase of waiting time from 2002 to 2030 is approximately the same, with or without passenger vessels. However in proportion to the waiting time in 2002, the increase is less for the simulation with passenger vessels. For approximately all fleets the proportional increase in waiting time from 2002 to 2030 is smaller for the simulation with passenger vessels. The absolute increase in waiting time is in the same order, with or without passenger vessels. This is logical, considering the fact that when a fleet
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consists of more ships, an equal amount of ships will be troubled by a passenger vessel as those who are not troubled.
mean waiting time [minutes] 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 sim ulation run BACONTL BAGENCAL BABULKL BAGENCAM BATANKL BATANKM
RLPBULKL RLPTANKL RLPTANKM
300 mean waiting time [minutes] 250 200 150 100 50 0 2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 sim ulation num ber
Figure 6-17 Ships to Buenos Aires

300 mean waiting time [minutes] 250 200 150 100 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 sim ulation num ber RLP_IP80TANKS RLP_BATANKS RLP_IP80GENCAS IP130TANKS
Figure 6-18 Ships to La Plata

mean waiting time [minutes] 400 300 200 100 0 2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 sim ulation num ber IP80EMBULKXL IP80ZCMGBULKL IP80EMBULKL IP80MGBULKL IP80MGBULKXL
Figure 6-19 Ships from La Plata to other ports

mean waiting time [minutes] 500 400 300 200 100 0 2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 sim ulation number IP80TANKL IP80GENCAL IP80TANKM IP80GENCAM IP80CONTL IP130BULKXL
Figure 6-20 Bulk carriers to IP80
Figure 6-21 Non-bulk carriers to IP80 and IP130
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6.7 Capacity conclusions

This chapter has shown and discussed the results of four simulated cases. From analysis of the results, the following conclusions can be stated: When more than 5000 vessels, distributed over the 25 fleets, are simulated by the model, the waiting times increase heavily. At this point the average waiting time over all fleets exceeds the 200 minutes, where it was 134 minutes in 2002 (3300 vessels). Increasing traffic from 3300 vessels to 5000 increases the mean waiting time by 100% . The waiting times are fairly equal distributed over the different ports and waiting areas. Congestion is created by the rules in the Punta Indio channel, km.37, km.0-km.16, the Martin Garcia and the Emilio Mitre channel. The results after simulating traffic as predicted up to 2020 and extended to 2030 show an increase of waiting time varying from 60 to 160% for different fleets. Year 2030 simulates the passage of almost 5000 vessels. When comparing these waiting times to the total turn around time of a ship in the system, they are still relative small. For almost all fleets the waiting time increases from 2 to 4% of the turn around time. For the container carriers to Buenos Aires, the waiting time is relatively large considering the short turn around time. From 2002 to 2030, it increases from 7 to 12 % of the total turn around time of this fleet. Rerouting of bulk carriers was simulated to see if waiting times can be reduced by decreasing the number of ships that cross (meet in opposite direction) in the Emilio Mitre and Martin Garcia channels. All bulk carriers were set to sail to the inland trough Martin Garcia and leave through Emilio Mitre. Results show that after 4300 vessels the waiting times are less than without rerouting. The waiting times for some fleets were reduced by 30%. This shows that when the traffic intensity increases, rerouting is an option to decrease waiting times. If rerouting is possible should be investigated. The waiting times for 2002 with 50 passenger vessels are, averaged over all fleets, 60% larger than without passenger vessels. The increase in waiting times from 2002 to 2030 are in absolute value the same with or without passenger vessels. The relative increase of waiting time is smaller when the passenger vessels are simulated.
Discussion: Acceptable waiting times? After simulating four different cases, the ability of the Rio de la Plata waterway to facilitate a fluent flow of traffic can be discussed. One of the main aspects, that can be seen from the results, is that when more than 5000 vessels are to travel through the waterway, the waiting times start to increase significantly. The predictions on traffic intensity used to simulate 2020 and 2030 show that a intensity of 5000 vessels is not reached. From 2002 to 2020 the waiting times increase on average by 33%. From 2002 to 2030 the waiting times increase on average by 75%. When passenger vessels are simulated, these percentages are respectively 24% and 54% percent. The results of case II, 2002 to 2030, were compared to the total time a ship is in the Rio de la Plata, the Paran river and port. Expressed in percentages of this turn around time, the waiting times are small (1 to 4 %).
Discussion: Maximum capacity? At 7800 vessels the waiting times are very large with an average over all ships of 720 minutes (12 hours). The step from 7100 ships to 7800 increased the mean waiting time over all ships by 200 minutes. Although these times will never be accepted by ships, the waterway is still capable to facilitate passage. Based on the results and graphical interpretation of case I, the maximum capacity likely to be reached at 8000 to 9000 vessels. Inserting 8700 vessels per year in the model results in an average waiting time of 1300 minutes.
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7.
Economic assessment on the value of time
7.1 Introduction
Chapter six showed that a change of traffic intensity results in a change of experienced waiting times by cargo-vessels when navigating through the Rio de la Plata estuary. Whether occurring waiting times are acceptable is difficult to determine. A complete economic analysis for each visiting cargo vessel can point out how a waiting time of x minutes will influence the ships behaviour and create economic consequences. To study the complexity of the Argentinean economy, its ports, waterways and cargo transport is beyond the scope of this thesis. Creating a cost indication for the delay of a cargo ship is of interest when considering adjustments to the waterway. In order to determine if an adjustment to the waterway is profitable, the managing companies, Hidrova S.A., Riovia S.A., should investigate the willingness of the shipping sector or government to pay for the adjustment. For instance, if dredging activities to allow encounters in a certain stretch will bring costs , the profit gained by reduction of delay for the passing ships should be expressed in money. The fundamental question arises: If Hidrova S.A. decides to invest in an improvement of the waterway to allow faster passage of vessels, what are the costs related to the adjustment and what are the profits by delay reduction? A clear answer to this complex question will not be given in this chapter. To create a reference-frame for the interpretation of experienced delay times by cargo vessels, this chapter will focus on the costs involved in shipping bulk and containers . This chapter indicates the basic market principles within the sea-born trade for both types of cargo. Within these markets the charterer needs the transportation of cargo(demand) and the shipowner provides this service(supply). Note: This thesis focuses on the congestion occurring due to waterway occupation. The availability of quays and cargo-handling equipment in ports and related delay times are not studied. Considering the many ports and the complex systems within each port, this is beyond the reach of this thesis. When this chapter refers to waiting time and delay, it is related to waterway occupation and the influence of ports and quay capacities is not modelled. When a delay time (congestion) is experienced by a vessel, this causes economic damage (loss of revenue, increase of costs etc.) to a certain party. Considering this, four questions arise concerning this damage: 1. Who is responsible for the delay time and the financial consequences? Can a responsible party be pointed out? 2. What parties experience the damage caused by delay time? 3. Is the damage experienced by the party that is responsible for it? 4. Can damage be expressed in a quantitative manner? 5. If an adjustment to the waterway decreases the amount of experienced delay of vessels, can the costs the investment be compared to the value of the decrease in delay? Ad.1 In order to determine who is responsible for economic damage by congestion, the cause of congestion should be reviewed. This thesis is based on congestion within the Rio de la Plata waterway caused by occupation of sections in channels. This occupation causes vessels to wait/slow down at certain points in order to prevent the encounter with other vessels in sections where this is prohibited. It could be said that congestion is therefore directly created by the presence of other vessels. Each added ship creates extra congestion to other users, and implicitly itself. Indirectly however, congestion can be related to the navigation rules set for the wet infrastructure. By prohibiting the encounters of vessels in certain waterwaysections, the rules possibly force vessels to wait. When relating congestion to the physical set-up of the waterway system, the question arises who is responsible for this set-up and the applied rules. Within the Rio de la Plata, Hidrova S.A. and Riovia S.A. both maintain and manage parts of the wet infrastructure. In exchange for their operations and efforts, cargo vessels pay toll fees for passage. The navigation rules are issued by coast guard organisations such as Prefectura Naval Argentina.
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The organisations Hidrova S.A. and Riovia S.A. are assigned by the governments of Argentina and Uruguay to maintain the waterway. Both governments are, in the largest scope, responsible for the economic performance of both countries. Since 80% of the moved cargo in Argentina is shipped through the Rio de la Plata, the economic development of the country is depending on the ability of the Rio de la Plata to facilitate a fluent traffic flow. A congested waterway will decrease the amount of export and the willingness of shipping companies to ship cargo through the area. From the economic perspective the governments of Argentina and Uruguay are responsible for the waterway and its performance. Ad. 2 The maritime transport of cargo knows different market set-ups. Within these markets, the supply side is formed by ship-owners who provide the service of transportation and the demand side by shippers/charterers who need the transportation of a commodity over a certain distance. Between these parties wide variety of contracts are used to define the role of each party within the transportation of goods. Both the supply of service by ship-owners as the demand for transportation by charterers is related to the freight rate. This is defined as the cost per unit of cargo (ton, cubic metre, barrel etc.) or deadweight capacity of a vessel that the charterer has to pay the shipowner on a voyage basis. It can be understood that if a charterer is in need to rent a vessel for a longer period of time, without transporting more cargo, some costs will go up. The shape of the contract between both parties prescribes who is financially responsible for different aspects of the cargo-shipment. Ad. 3 Comments on question one and two above show that it is not possible to identify a clear party, which is responsible for congestion. Although the delay time is most directly experienced by the shipper, his responsibility for the delay is not clear. Ad. 4 To quantitatively define the damage (costs) of delay time relates to the first three questions and considerations from above. Although these questions are difficult to answer, a quantitative indication will be given in relation to the charter-rates for bulk and container carriers. Ad. 5 This question is essential to any company maintaining a waterway. The fact that these companies receive fees from passing vessels is important to consider. The willingness to pay of passing vessels for an improvement of the waterway is essential. If a vessel does not experience a decrease of waiting time of, for instance, twenty minutes as beneficial he will be reluctant to pay extra fee. Another consideration is the willingness of the government to pay for possible improvements, for they will be possibly beneficial to the economy. As such, will an improvement of the waterway always result in more trade and economic improvement? Considering these issues the complexity becomes clear. Focus in this chapter The above has shown the complexity of players involved in shipping. The focus in this chapter is set towards the direct costs of shipping. Through the principle of charter, where a company in need of transport rents a ship, the costs will be explained.
7.2 Definitions
The following definitions are used to define the involved parties in the shipping process and the related costs. The definitions are based on the charter-principal. In this principal the companies that are in need of transportation do not own ships themselves. They will charter one or more vessels from a shipping company for the transhipment of their commodities. Shipping company (shipowner) Within the shipping sector, the shipping company is defined as the company that provides in maritime transportation. The company is in possession of vessels or hires them from shipowners. The company lets the vessels to a second party in need of transportation. In this chapter the term shipowner will be used.
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Charterer or shipper A company that desires the transportation of cargo between ports. The charterer rents a vessel or part of the vessel from a shipowner for a certain time or trip. Charterparty Contract between shipowner and charterer/shipper. In this contract is defined the period of use of a vessel by the charterer and many other details. Lay-time Time allowed by the shipowner to the voyage charterer to carry out loading and/or discharging operations. Laytime is commonly expressed in days. Demurrage Compensation payable by the shipper/charterer or port to the vessel/shipowner due to excess time taken for loading or unloading a vessel. Demurrage refers to situations in which the charterer or shippers is at fault. The rate of demurrage is stated in the charterparty in dollars or euros per day. Despatch Despatch is the money which the shipowner agreed to repay if the ship is loaded or discharged in less time than the laytime allowed in the charterparty. The rate of despatch is stated in the charterparty in dollars or euros per day. Despatch in general is fifty percent of the demurrage rate. Freight rate The cost per unit of cargo (ton, cubic metre, barrel, etc.) or deadweight capacity of a vessel that the charterer had to pay the shipowner on a voyage basis. The freight rate can be interpreted as the costs for a charterer (who wants to have a cargo shipped from A to B) per unit of cargo on a given voyage. A higher freight rate means a charterer has to pay more to transport a unit of cargo. Daily equivalent time charter rate Tariff per day paid by shipper to charter/rent a vessel for the principle of time charter. What costs are included and excluded is explained later. Time charter equivalent (TCE) The Time Charter Equivalent or TCE are the revenues/profits for a shipowner for a vessel per day based on a voyage basis. Time charter equivalent, or TCE, is a measure for the average daily revenue performance of a vessel on a per voyage basis. [source: General Maritime Corporation, 2004]
7.3 Bulk: charter shipping

[Source: Economics of Maritime Transport, McConville 1999] Within the bulk transport, shipowners and shippers use a wide variety of contracts in their dealings with each other. These contracts are called charterparties. They are complex legal documents with two elements which are of interest. The length of time the contract is operable and secondly the method of establishing freight or charter rates. For the bulk-market, four types of charterparties can be classified. They are described below to provide insight in the roles that can be played by both shipowner and charterer and their interest in the time aspect of transportation. 1. Single voyage charter Within this charter, the shipowner undertakes to provide a vessel to carry cargo for a specific voyage between one or more ports. The shipper pays a certain freight rate per ton of loaded cargo. The shipowner pays all operational costs. Variations exist on who pays for the (un)loading of cargo. This charter relates to the spot market, being the segment of the shipping market where deals are made for a single voyage. The shipper pays per ton of transported cargo and the shipowner for the running and operational costs. The latter is most likely to experience extra cost if the vessel has to be operated for instance half a day longer. The shipper pays for the tonnage which does not change. 2. Time charter This form of charter provides the charterer with exclusive use of the vessel for the charterers business. Short charters run for two years, medium charters run for five years. The shipowner provides the vessels and crew and pays for all capital charges, running costs and maintenance. The charterer is responsible for
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the voyage expenses, port and handling costs. This charter relates to the long-term market, clearly different from spot market. Within this form of charter is can be expected that expenses caused by delay time are for the charterer. He has rented the vessel for a long period for a fixed price. The use of the vessel and related operational costs are for his account. The aspect of trip-loss can be mentioned within the long-term charters. When a charterer operates the vessel for five years on a given route and the time needed to sail this route increases, the number of trips that can be made within five years decreases. 3. Bareboat charter The shipowner solemnly provides with the vessel and takes no active part in the proceedings. The charterer becomes the manager of the vessel on all aspects. This charter is rarely used. 4. Contract of affreightment The shipowner is now responsible for the transport of quantity of cargo over a given time period on a particular route. The use of ships (size, number) is all managed by the shipowner. Limitations for the shipowner are set by the quantity of cargo and restraints by destination ports on the arrival and (un)loading of cargo. A freight rate per ton is agreed on with the charterer. These form of contracts are used for bulk on a long term basis (two to five years). Within this contract the role of the shipowner is significant compared to the other charter forms. Since the shipowner runs the operation of transport, financial damage by delay will be born by him. How the cost of transportation are distributed between both parties for the four charter-forms can be shown schematically. For each form of charterparty, both shipowner and charterer are responsible for different costs.
Capital charges Loan repayments Loan interest Taxes Return after tax Depreciation Daily running costs Crew Expenses Maintenance and repair Stores Insurance Administration Voyage costs Fuel costs Port charges Canal dues Cargo expenses Cargo handling Cargo claims
Owner
BAREBOAT CHARTER
Charterer
Owner
TIME CHARTER
Charterer
Owner
VOYAGE CHARTER
Charterer
Owner
CONTRACT OF AFFREIGHTMENT
Charterer
[source: Buxton, Engineering Economics and Ship Design] Figure 7-1 Cost distribution between shipowner and charterer/shipper Within the dry bulk market, the shipowners and shippers/charterers are in close contact and information on rates are exchanges freely. Considering this, in general there only exists one freight rate as a equilibrium between the supply of shipping companies and the demand of shippers. Both parties are not able to influence the freight rate.
7.4 Container: liner shipping

Opposite to the charter-forms of bulk transport described in the previous section, the liner shipping conveys high-value cargo. An important group is formed by container shipment. The freight rate is around ten times
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higher compared to bulk cargo. The main feature that distinguishes the liner sector from the bulk sector is that it provides scheduled services between specific ports. Ships are set to sail along a specific trade route and they will (un)load at pre-arranged ports. The cargo transported on a trip is on behalf of multiple shippers. Through consignments each shipper uses a small part of total capacity of the vessel. Two important distinctions can be mentioned between liner transport and bulk. 1. The freight rates are set in different manners. In the bulk sector the rates are set in competitive way between a lot of players (bulk carriers). The liner sector uses complex fixing of rates, with price discrimination for different shippers/charterers. A relative closed market exists. 2. Liner vessels are bound to trip schedules and related scheduled services (port handling etc.). The vessel will depart full, part cargo or empty in accordance to the schedule. Being bound to a tight schedule creates problems in reference to capacity utilisation ( e.g. loading equipment, waterway capacity). Related to the tight schedule of visiting ports and related services, clear rules exist that describe who is to pay when either a ship runs in late or a port does not service as planned. The freight rates for liner shipping are determined by closed markets and conferences. In these conferences liner operators act collectively to limit competition. They institute freight rates on certain routes.
7.5 Charter rate 7.5.1 Introduction

[source: Review of Maritime Transport 2003, UNCTAD secretariat] The different rates that are discussed within this section are one to two years behind on the publication date of this thesis. To obtain recent figures and predictions is expensive and not the main aim of this thesis. The essence of this chapter is to indicate the size-order of rates involved within the chartering of vessels. The charter rates described in the upcoming sections are annual averages based on analysis of world sea borne trade.
7.5.2 Bulk in charter sector

The charter rates for bulk carriers are very exposed to changes in the world economic situation. The unstable economic situation over the past years has influenced the daily equivalent charter rates (DECR). These rates can be interpreted as the costs paid by the charterer/shipper to the shipowner. The graph below shows the DECR values from 1994 to 2002.
[ Source: Clarkson, Shipping Review & Outlook, various years ] Figure 7-2 Bulk carrier daily equivalent charter rate Reports by UNCTAD show that at in December 2002 the rate for a Cape-size vessel from Brazil to China ran up to US$ 29,000 per day on a voyage basis. In the same period, a Cape-size vessel on long-term basis was set on a US$18,000 rate per day. A Panamax started at US$ 7,500 per day in January 2002 and ended in December with an increase of almost 75%.
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The rates per day mentioned in this section are based on time-charter. Figure 7-1 showed how the costs for transport by ship are distributed between owner and charterer. Next to the charter-rate paid towards the shipowner, the charterer has to pay for fuel, fees and port-related costs. It can be concluded that the charter-rates for bulk carriers fluctuate heavily, even within one year. This can be troublesome when trying to answer the question how a delay time will financially damage a party involved in shipment. This sections has indicated the size of figures related to the charter-sector of bulk carriers.
7.5.3 Container in charter sector

Although the transportation of container is mostly a liner shipping market, the daily equivalent charter rates can be used to indicate the daily costs for chartering a complete container carrier. As seen for the bulk carriers, also a decline in DECR exist over the past few years. The figure below shows the values for different sized container carriers.
[ Source: Clarkson, Shipping Review & Outlook, Spring 2002.] Figure 7-3 Container carrier daily equivalent charter rate Reports by UNCTAD show that the return point has been passed in mid 2002 and that charter rates have gone up in the beginning of 2003. For instance, over the first period of 2003, the charter rates expressed in 14-ton slot/day (TEU/day) have show an increase from US$ 6.0 to US$ 7.6. This corresponds to a charter rate of US$ 17.500 for a 2300 TEU carrier. The rates per day mentioned in this section are based on time-charter. Figure 7-1 showed how the costs for transport by ship are distributed between owner and charterer. Next to the charter-rate paid towards the shipowner, the charterer has to pay for fuel, fees and port-related costs. The DECR values show that they are able to change within a relative short period of time. When relating financial damage caused by delay time this should be held in mind.
7.5.4 Charter party

When a shipowner and a charterer have found each other in the market, their agreement is fixed within a charter-party. This contractual agreement provides good guidance on who is responsible for the costs related to the transhipment and possible events. Since standard charter-parties exist, both shipowner and charterer know what terms are valid and who is to cover certain expenses. The general charter-party is build up by six components. 1. Details on ship, shipowner and charterer 2. A description of cargo to be carried
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Terms on which cargo is carried. This important part states: - The dates on which the vessel will be available - Loading port or area - Discharging port - Laytime (time allowed for loading/unloading) - Demurrage rate per day - Payment of loading and discharge costs 4. Terms of payment 5. Penalties for non-performance, defining who is to pay when either party fails his responsibilities 6. Administrative clauses, specifying matters that request further elaboration This short list in reality is formed by large legal documents trying to cover all possible events and mishaps during transport of cargo across the world.
3.
7.5.5 Lay-time, demurrage and despatch

Two important elements of the charterparty are the lay-time and the demurrage rate. The lay-time is set for the time spend in port(s) (un)loading. If this time is exceeded, the charterer is responsible and has to pay demurrage to the shipowner. After all, the ship is in duty of the charterer for a longer time. Opposite, when a charterer has managed to (un)load in a shorter time than the agreed lay-time, he will receive despatch from the shipowner. The rate of demurrage is set on a per day value and is in the order of the daily charter-rate. The rate on despatch is commonly set to fifty percent of te demurrage rate.
7.6 Cost of congestion 7.6.1 Introduction

When reviewing the costs classification of shipment in figure 7.1, it can be questioned which components change when congestion occurs. One of the costs that fluctuates is that of fuel consumption. Section 7.8 indicates exemplarily calculations. For the shipowner the daily costs of 'owning' the ship with a certain crew does not change. For the charterer, assuming he uses the same route and port, the channel fees and port charges remain the same. The only thing that changes is the time the ship is working for the purpose of the charterer. So what changes when a ship is delayed for example two hours, on his voyage through the Rio de la Plata waterway with a length up to 250 km? As mentioned, a direct impact is change fuel consumption. A secondary impact is the fact the ship will be in use for the charterer two hours longer and returned to the shipowner two hours later. It is questionable whether these 'two hours' delay will result in demurrage obligations towards the shipowner. The fact that rates in the charterparty (charter-rate, demurrage) are on a daily scale makes it difficult to estimate the impact of a two hour delay. In each form of congestion, the possibility is present that delay times propagate through a system. When a set of vessels is scheduled to arrive at a port in a give sequence, the late arrival of the first ship is possibly passed on to the other cargo vessels. The rate of occupation of the port and his quays determines if and how delays are passed on to other vessels. Within the charterparty the freight-rate is fixed. This implies that the charterer pays a fixed price for the shipping. Considering the long periods that cargo is underway, the aspect of loss through interest will come to mind. This is however largely depending on the contracts between the shipper and the buying party at the port of destination. It is unlikely that a delay of two hours on a trip, for instance from Argentina to Rotterdam, of 14 days will influence this aspect.
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Another aspect to consider when defining the cost of delay is related to the shipping of perishable commodities such as fruit and meat. Since these products are shipper by refrigerated vessels, perishing is banned to a certain extent. In an effort to define the cost of congestion, the waiting time experienced is directly related to the daily equivalent charter rate. This rough approach assigns all costs to the charterer/shipper. The approach is from the point of view of the charterer.
7.6.2 Approach: delay cost as function of charter-rate

A (too) simplistic approach is to relate delay-time directly to the charter-rate paid by the charterer to the shipowner. As an example, with an estimate charter-rate for a Handymax vessel of US$ 10.000 per day, a two hour delay would result in an extra cost of US$ 833 to be paid by the charterer for transporting the same cargo. Because the charterparty is set in days, it is difficult to define how a relative short period of delay (some hours) will effect the money paid to the shipowner. When a charterparty is set for the transport of grain from Argentina to Europe with 14 days at sea, 4 days in port in Argentina for loading and 4 days in Europe for unloading, than a two hour delay does not seem of interest for this one trip. Based on the demurrage agreement stated in charterparties, only delays in order of days will result in penalties. Although the approach of relating the waiting time to the daily charter-rate is simplistic, an exemplarily calculation is made based on the results of capacity study II in chapter six. This study simulated traffic and its waiting times in 2002 and the predicted traffic in 2020. For calculation the following assumptions are made: Average tanker, general cargo and bulk daily charter rate: US$ 15.000 Average container daily charter rate: US$ 20.000 Each minute of delay time is directly resulting in cost through the charter-rate. The charter rates heavily fluctuate as previous sections showed. The detailed calculation sheet is shown in Appendix M.
Average cost per ship per total cost by delay year Nb of ships TMWT-all* trip [US$] [Mln.US$/year] 2002 3350 134 1,907 6.39 2020 4152 180 2,471 10.26 *TMWT-all = total mean waiting time averaged over all ships [minutes] Table 7-1 Annual cost by delay based on charter rate for 2002 and 2020 in Rio de la Plata (waiting times used from results capacity study II, chapter six)
Based on the approach described above the annual costs related to delay time increase with almost 4 million dollars from year 2002 to 2020. Distributed over the passing vessels this adds up to an increase of around 500 dollar per ship on each trip made in the Rio de la Plata. Within the margins used for sea-borne shipment, an increase of costs for the charterer with 500 dollar per trip seems small. Conclusion: Based on the approach that a delay-time can be expressed through the DECR's, the increase of traffic from 2002 to 2020 creates an average additional cost to charterers of 500 US$ per round-trip through the Rio de la Plata. This approach has set the delay-time to be paid for by the charterer. In reality it can be understood that extra costs are distributed over all the different users (from farmer to consumer) that are related to the transhipment.
7.6.3 Discussion
Some comments are made below, in relation to delay time and involved parties. Anticipation of congestion The duration of a voyage charter is written in the contract between charterer and shipowner. A charterer does not want to make use of the vessel longer than necessary for his cargo-shipment. However the late
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returning of the vessel might force him to pay extra (demurrage)to the shipowner. The time scale of trips of the sea-borne sector reaches up to weeks and months. Within the planning of a trip, a time spend in the Rio de la Plata, Paran river and its ports will be set based on past experiences. Analysis of traffic records used in previous chapters already showed that for vessels, even with the same size, large deviations exist in turn around times (total time in Rio de la Plata and Paran river). In this light, the anticipation of congestion is important. If it is generally known to both shipowner and charterer that the Rio de la Plata is a 'busy' waterway and that it creates delay times of significance, both parties will translate this knowledge into the set-up of the charterparty. Time before start of charter The charterparty defines that at a given time a shipowner will have a vessel available at port for loading (first port) of the charterers commodity. His activities before arriving at this port are not of interest to the charterer. The time a shipowner has to sail from the end of an assignment to the beginning point of his next assignment will be for his account. If arriving too late at the port of his next destination, the charterparty between him and the shipowner will determine possible penalties. Port availability Cost of congestion in maritime transport is commonly related to port availability, because the demurrage and despatch are depending on the time in port. The port and its ability to receive ships performs a vital function in the sea-borne trade. One of the core problems of ports is the fact that ships arrive at random, this applies to bulk carriers and partially to liner vessels. Also the time to load or discharge a vessel varies widely for different reasons. A high berth/quay occupation can only be achieved by creating queues and congestion in the approach towards the port. By these queues, ships are delayed by the presence of other vessels. Common delay-times are in the order of 10 minutes to a couple of hours. Delay-times in the order of days occur by failing cargo-handling equipment or accidents. For instance, a port failing to discharge a ship due to equipment-failure will pay the shipowner or the charterer demurrage in the order of the D.E.C.R. per day. Although not subject in this thesis, the level of service provided by ports is important for the time-schedule of charterers and plays a role in their planning.
7.7 Ship owner cash flow 7.7.1 Cost classification

This section describes the cost of operating a ship from the perspective of the shipowner. The relation to time/delay will not be made. From the point of view of shipowners, three key variables determine the financial performance of its operations: 1. The revenue received from chartering/operating ships 2. The cost of running the ship 3. The method of financing the business How these cash flow items interact can be shown diagrammatically in Figure 7-4.
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running costs Operating costs Depend on: Crew numbers Crew wages Stores Lubricants Repairs Maintenance Insurance Administration Voyage cost p.a. Depend on: Fuel consumption Main engine Auxiliary engine Fuel price Speed Port charges Canal dues Tugs etc. Cargo handling cost p.a.. Depend on: Cargo type Ship design Cargo handling gear Unitization Organization skill TAXES
Ship revenues p.a. Depend on: CARGO CAPACITY Ship size Bunkers & stores SHIP PRODUCTIVITY Operational planning Backhauls Operating speed Off hire time DWT utilization Port time FREIGHT RATES Market balance Quality of service Competition
FREE CASH FLOW
DIVIDENDS capital cost p.a. Capital repayment Depend on: Size of loan Length of loan Moratorium Currency Interst payments Depend on: Source of loan Size of loan Market interest rate Terms of loan Periodic maintenance Depend on: Age of ship Maintenance policy Special survey cycle Regulations
p.a. = per annum [source: Martin Stopford, 1997] Figure 7-4 Cash flow model From the revenues earned by a ship, both the running and capital costs must be deducted. The result is subject to taxes and possible payment of dividend. The revenues most left in the diagram are strongly dependent on market movement.
7.7.2 Voyage cash flow analysis : an example

[source: Stopford 2000] For the shipowner it is important to chose trips with the largest profits. Through brokers, intermediates between shipowner and charterer, the shipowner receives knowledge on possible trips to undertake. Important for the shipowner is the route and destination. Since the ship will end at the discharging port of the charterer, it is has to investigated if good other trips can be scheduled from that point on. Another aspect for the decision of shipowner to engage a voyage are the freight rates that fluctuate even within days. Note: The voyage charter principle is applied here. The shipowner is responsible for the transhipment of cargo. Figure 7-1 showed that in this concept the shipowner pays for all expenses except the cargo-handling in port. For a set freight rate, price per ton of cargo paid by charterer to shipowner, cargo is shipped over a certain track. To decide whether to accept a certain voyage, a voyage cash flow analysis (VCF) can be made. This provides insight to the shipowner on his costs and revenues. A VCF is build up by five parts. 1. Ship information: calculation on fuel consumption. 2. Voyage information: Description of distances, cargo and freight rates. 3. Days on voyage: calculation of total time at sea and in port. 4. Voyage cash flow: Freight earnings. Also a deduction of voyage costs to determine the ongoing cost to pay for running and financing the ship. 5. Operating costs: Based on annual cost and divided over 350 operational days. The table below shows an example the VCF of bulk carrier on a four leg voyage. Typically the shipowner is considering to sail leg 2 and 4 in ballast (empty). In its route, ECNA represents the East Coast of North
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America. The order of size of the figures is indicative. The table shows the importance of both the freight rate and fuel prices. Both are known to fluctuate under influence of world economy.
1 Ship information Ship type Bulk carrier dwt 66000 bunker (tons/day) knots main auxiliary design 15 laden 14 33 1 ballast 14 31 1 in port 0 3 2 bunker price US$/ton 109 169 speed
2 Voyage information Route leg 1 leg 2 leg 3 leg 4 US Gulf-Japan Japan - Australia Australia - Europe Europe - ECNA
Distance Days Days Cargo Freight (miles) at sea in port US$/ton 9,123 28.6 19 54,500 19.5 4740 14.8 0 ballast 0 12,726 39.9 10 62,375 10 4500 14.1 0 ballast 0 31,089 97.4 29 116,875 1,686,500
3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 4 4.1 4.2 4.3
Days on voyage calculation Charter party speed less sea margin Actual average speed Voyage distance Loaded days at sea Port time/ canal transit TOTAL Voyage cashflow Freight earnings US$ less broker's commission less voyage costs bunker oil for main engine Diesel oil for auxiliaries Port costs Canal dues Net earnings US$ memo: daily earnings less operating costs Net voyage cash flow Contribution to capital (US$/day) Operating costs Manning costs US$ Stores Maintenance Insurance Administration TOTAL ANNUAL COST Cost per day
14 5% 13.3 31,089 97.4 29 126
Average for trip Allowance for weather From section 2 From section 2 From section 2
1,686,500 33,730 353,508 26,262 418,000 80,000 775,000 6,131 710,710 64,290 509
At 2 percent
4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 5 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7
116 days at US$ 5.623/day
1,068,000 195,000 270,000 220,000 215,000 1,968,000 5,623
Crew at US$ 35.600 per annum
At 350 days on hire per annum
[source: stopford 2002] Table 7-2 Voyage cash flow analysis (example) The average daily surplus for this shipowner if US$ 509. Since this is a small revenue, the shipowner will look for other options. For each trip the shipowner has to decide what vessel (age, size) is best. Each ship has its own fuel consumptions, maintenance requirements and capacity.
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7.8 Fuel consumption, ship speed and time

Fuel consumption is an important component to the voyage costs. Economic fluctuations, especially in the oil-business, effect the rates within the shipping sector. An important feature within shipping is the difference in fuel-consumption for various sail-velocities. For instance, for a Capesize vessels of DWT130.000 the fuel consumption per day increases by a factor 7 when increasing the speed from 7 to 14 knots. At 7 knots the daily consumption is 6 tons and for 14 knots 47 tons. Since waiting times can be interpreted as speed-reduction, it is interesting to review the related fuel consumption and costs. Through radio-contact with the local coast-guard (Prefectura Naval Argentina for the Rio de la Plata), vessels receive indications on speed-adjustment. The table below (Table 7-3) indicates how loss of time corresponds to profit by reduction of fuel consumption. The costs of delay-time is related to the daily charter-rate. Based on the voyage-charter principle, the charters pays for both the fuel and the time the vessel is working for him.
Capesize Dead weight tonnage Length over all

Bunker price Bunker consumption at service speed Service speed Distance round-trip Rio de la Plata Daily equivalent charter rate
130,000 ton 190 [m] 230 US$/ton 80 ton 15 knots 450 km 15,000
US$
Economic perspective: sail-time versus fuel consumption

Roundtrip Fuel Speed consumption in Bunker Costs Days in Rio Hours in Rio fuel costs [US$] tons per day at $230/t de la Plata de la plata knots Loss of income at US$ 15,000 per day
Net US$
7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0
6 7 9 10 12 15 17 20 23 26 29 33 37 42 47 52 58
1,346 1,656 2,010 2,411 2,862 3,365 3,925 4,544 5,225 5,970 6,783 7,667 8,624 9,658 10,771 11,967 13,248
1.45 1.35 1.26 1.19 1.12 1.07 1.01 0.96 0.92 0.88 0.84 0.81 0.78 0.75 0.72 0.70 0.67
35 32 30 29 27 26 24 23 22 21 20 19 19 18 17 17 16
1,946 2,234 2,542 2,870 3,217 3,585 3,972 4,379 4,806 5,253 5,720 6,206 6,713 7,239 7,785 8,351 8,937
11,564 10,119 8,854 7,738 6,746 5,858 5,059 4,337 3,680 3,080 2,530 2,024 1,557 1,124 723 349 0
-4,574 -3,416 -2,459 -1,671 -1,026 -506 -94 221 451 604 688 707 668 574 429 237 0
[source: www.itf.org] Table 7-3 Cost perspective fuel consumption and sail time Values are calculated for a two way trip through the Rio de la Plata with a total of 450 kilometres for a Capesize carrier. The duration of such a trip is calculated for different speeds and related consumptionlevels. The service-speed of 15 knots is set as reference point for the calculation of added cost of time. The final column shows profit or loss related to a given speed. What can be concluded from the table above is that a reduction of speed, possibly caused by congestion, can be beneficial when reviewing the consumed fuel. For instance, when navigating the entire trip at 10 knots instead of 15, the money saved by less fuel consumption levels with the loss of time based on the charter-rate.
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Considering the length of the Rio de la Plata, speed adjustments will take place in stretches of around 10 to 100 kilometres. Table 7-4 shows, for different distances and speeds, the related costs due to loss of time based on a charter-rate of US$ 15.000 per day. The last column shows the profit by reduction of speed and related decrease of fuel consumption.
Distance Speed Sail time Fuel consumption difference to [ ton per 14 knots hour] 0.00 2.0 0.64 1.2 1.54 0.7 0.00 2.0 0.32 1.2 0.77 0.7 0.00 2.0 0.06 1.2 0.15 0.7 cost of time
(charter rate :US$15.000)
Cost of fuel
(cost US$230 / ton)
km 100
50
10
knots 14 12 10 14 12 10 14 12 10
hours 3.85 4.50 5.40 1.93 2.25 2.70 0.39 0.45 0.54
Absolute [US$] 2409 2811 3373 1205 1405 1686 241 281 337
Ref. to 14 knots 0 402 964 0 201 482 0 40 96
Absolute Ref. to 14 [US$] knots 1730 0 1271 -459 883 -847 865 0 636 -229 441 -424 177 0 124 -53 87 -90
Table 7-4 Cost perspective sail speed - distance - fuel consumption for Capesize carrier Based on the used charter-rate and fuel price, the cost of delay (lower speed) is in the same order of the 'profit' caused by the reduction of fuel consumption. Conclusion: This section indicated the cost of fuel related to different navigation speeds. Indicative figures have shown that when a vessel reduces his speed, his fuel consumption decreases exponentially. When interpreting a waiting time as speed reduction, the benefit of less fuel consumption is in the same order of the cost of time. Although this approach is simplistic, it shows the costs of fuel and its proportion to time and speed. Considering the length of the Rio de la Plata, this phenomenon can be interesting for further research.
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7.9 Conclusions
This chapter sketched a frame for interpretation of waiting times with an economic perspective. The following aspects have been described: Shipping markets: liner and charter shipping Charter-rates: indications on the cost for a charterer to rent a vessel from a shipowner Cost of congestion: waiting times related to daily charter rates Shipowner: example of cash-flow analysis by shipowner to accept a voyage or trip Fuel consumption, ship speed and time: basic calculations for comparison of fuel consumption, speed and sail time in relation to congestion. The following can be concluded: Congestion is caused by restricting rules on encounters between ship and therefore the presence of other vessels. All ships together are responsible for a traffic intensity that causes a level of congestion. The rules applied to the waterway are set by authorities. A clear party responsible for congestion can not be pointed out. The bulk sector is formed by the principle of charter where charterers rent a complete vessel to transport cargo on one or multiple trips. Different charter forms are used to describe who is responsible for the different costs. The bulk sector is an open market with many players. Freight rates are free and determined by the supply of vessels and demand of transport. The container sector is former by liner shipping. Charterers rent only a part of ships capacity. The vessels are set to sail scheduled routes. The market is formed by a few players that control freight rates. Charter-rates fluctuate heavily, even within years. The cost of congestion has been related to the daily charter rates for bulk (US$ 15.000) and container (US$ 20.000). The rates are used based on UNCTAD publications. Following the assumption that each minute results in extra costs through these charter rates, the total damage of waiting-time based on the simulations is as follows:
total cost by delay year Nb of ships TMWT-all* [Mln.US$/year] 2002 3350 134 6.39 2020 4152 180 10.26 *TMWT-all = total mean waiting time averaged over all ships [minutes] (results used from case study II in section 6.4) Average cost per ship per trip [US$] 1,907 2,471
By this approach, the cost of delay when navigating the Rio de la Plata for an average ship increases with US$ 500 per trip. Reduction of speed by a vessel significantly changes the fuel consumption per distance. The profit of using less fuel over the distance is in the same order of the costs of a waiting time, when directly relating the waiting time to the daily charter rate of the vessel.
This chapter has given a view on the costs of maritime transport. It remains difficult to label a delay time with a value of money. The many players in the sector with different demands and roles create a nontransparent system. More thorough studies should be performed to define the value of time in the maritime transport sector.
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8.
Conclusions and recommendations
8.1 Thesis objective

Before posing the conclusions on this thesis, the objective as it was set in chapter 2 is repeated. To perform capacity studies for the Rio de la Plata waterway system by use of the computer simulation model Harboursim. The thesis was performed in wide perspective and not to the interest of one specific party. Many parties are involved in the Rio de la Plata waterway and its performance of facilitating traffic flow. The conclusions described below are not of interest to one party but are conclusions on the complete behaviour of the waterway.
8.2 Conclusions
Rio de la Plata The Rio de la Plata waterway system is of vital interest for the Argentinean economy. For the export of mainly grain and agricultural by-products the wet infrastructure with a length over 350 kilometres is responsible for the passage of over 3300 sea-borne vessels per year. Dredging activities by two companies, Hidrova S.A. and Riovia S.A., provide in sufficient depth for cargo-ships. Both companies, partially related to the Argentinean and Uruguayan governments, provide the maintenance service and receive toll fee from passing vessels. The Rio de la Plata is build up by seven channels. Each channel has its own rules on encounters between cargo-ships. The rules prescribe in what parts of the channels vessels are allowed to cross or overtake each other. Obeying these rules, possibly forces vessels to adjust speed in order to prevent conflicts. Other parameters such as weather conditions and water levels are influences to the traffic flow as well. It can be concluded that the Rio de la Plata estuary is important for the export/import of Latin America. It is used by a wide variety of ships. The traffic flow is directed by rules on navigation, weather conditions and other influences. The ability to allow fluent passage to a given number of ships is therefore important. Predictions show that the number of vessels using the waterway in the future will increase. Passenger vessels The Rio de la Plata is used by fifty passenger vessels each year. These vessels accept no encounter of any kind on voyage through the estuary. The application of this behaviour in Platasim heavily influences the waiting times for cargo vessels. Capacity studies and results Four capacity studies were performed in chapter six. The main conclusions are stated below. Traffic increase in steps of 10% I. Within this study the number of ships for all fleets was set to increase for ten simulations (ten years) with steps of 10 percent. This increases is not expected. It was performed to study the limits and behaviour of the model. From this study can be concluded that from 5000 vessels and more the mean waiting times for fleets start to increase rapidly. Around 8000 vessels the model is still able to allow traffic but the waiting times are unrealistic (600 to 800 minutes waiting time) to be accepted by traffic. Based on the model, the waterway system of Rio de la Plata is no longer able to allow passage of over 9000 vessels. Traffic increase as predicted up to 2020 and extended to 2030 II. The number of ships predicted up to 2020 shows an increase for the bulk and container carriers and drop for the general cargo vessels. Predictions indicate the expected traffic in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020. The change rate from 2015 to 2020 was extended to 2025 and 2030. From this study it can be concluded that in year 2020, 800 vessels more will travel through the Rio de la Plata. This resulted in increases of mean waiting times by 18 to 80% for different ships, adding 20 to 70 minutes. When inserting the 5000 ships estimated for 2030, the increases were 60 to 130%, adding 80 to 120 minutes for different fleets. For most
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fleets this extra time is around 1 to 2 % of the turn-around-time, the total time spend by a vessel in the system. For the container vessels to and from Buenos Aires, which have a tight schedule and short turnaround-time, the increase is relative large. This is caused by the Punta Indio channel and the entrance channel towards Buenos Aires. Rerouting of dry bulk carriers in Emilio Mitre and Martin Garcia channel III. The two connections from Rio de la Plata towards Paran river are the Martin Garcia and Emilio Mitre channel. The former is used by unloaded inland directed bulk carriers because it provides a faster connection to the Paran river. The latter is mainly used by loaded bulk carriers on their way to the Atlantic Ocean because it allows vessels to navigate with a larger draught and hence more cargo. There are however still vessels (25% of the bulk carriers) that used the channels in the opposite directions creating delay to themselves and others. This study rerouted all bulk carriers to go inbound (to Paran river) through Martin Garcia and outbound (to Ocean) through Emilio Mitre. The simulations increased again the traffic by 10 % as in case I over ten simulations. What can be concluded from the results is that when more than 4300 vessels use the Rio de la Plata, the model indicates profit from the rerouting. For 4300 vessels or more the model shows waiting times around 30 percent below the results under study A. Influence of passenger vessels IV. Passenger vessels demand from PNA to sail the Rio de la Plata without encounters with cargo-vessels. This demand forces cargo-vessels to wait long periods at ports and waiting areas. When no passenger vessels are simulated, the mean waiting time per ship in 2002 is 134 minutes and for 2020 180 minutes. With fifty passenger vessels per year, the results are respectively 203 and 253 minutes. The rule on passage of passenger vessels dominates the waiting times experienced by cargo vessels. Main conclusion Considering the working of the Platasim model and the results from simulations, it can be concluded that waiting times start increasing rapidly when the level of passing ships per year exceeds 5000. The congestion is equally distributed over the km140-183 stretch in the Punta Indio channel, the intersection points at km.37 and km.12 and the large stretches that prohibit encounters in the Martin Garcia channel. There is not one explicit bottleneck. In proportion to the turn-around-time, the increase in waiting time up to year 2020 is considered acceptable for all fleets. This is based on the simulation without passenger vessels. The large waiting times for container carriers to Buenos Aires are expected to be distributed over vessels with less priority. Based on the study performed in this thesis, the Rio de la Plata is still able to facilitate passage of cargo-traffic in 2020 with a sufficient service level (acceptable waiting times). Time value perspective Chapter seven related the economic value (cost) of delay time to the daily charter rate of vessels. Although this approach is simplistic, it indicated the order money involved in the sector of maritime transport.
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8.3 Recommendations and further studies

A) This thesis has focussed on the performance of the Rio de la Plata waterway. It has not studied the capacity of the Paran river and its branches. It is recommended to investigate the ability of this river to facilitate passage of the increased number of ships as is predicted for years to come. B) The reduction of encounters between vessels navigating in opposite direction in the Emilio Mitre and Martin Garcia channels has proven to reduce waiting times. Profit can be made when more vessels are directed to use Martin Garcia when sailing towards the inland and use Emilio Mitre when sailing towards the Atlantic Ocean. Further study should be done to determine the feasibility and desirability of rerouting traffic in this manner. Subjects related to this issue are the differences in toll-fees paid for both channels, the difference in bathymetric, and the connection to the Paran river. C) The records on traffic used for modelling consisted of the departure times at ports and the arrival times coming from the Atlantic Ocean for vessels in 2002. Based on these records the reality is approached by the model. For a good validation of the model, more data-records are needed on the locations of vessels at multiple times in the waterway. The current model is based on the departure times of vessel at ports and Ponton Recalada. D) The influence of passenger vessels on traffic flow has shown to be strong. The demand of no-encounter with cargo-vessels increases the average delay of these vessels. It is recommended to further look into the directions issued by PNA to cargo-vessels when a passenger vessel is set to arrive or leave at Buenos Aires port. E) When using the predicted traffic intensity, it was assumed that changes per type of cargo are proportional for all fleets used by the model. This implies that if the number of bulk carriers increases by 10%, this accounts for the bulk carriers to Buenos Aires as well as the bulk carriers to Rosario. It can be understood that ports will perform different in the future, and possibly shifting will occur in the number of ships to the different ports. It is recommended for further capacity studies to see if the distribution over the various ports and routes will change. F) This thesis and the created model have focused on the waiting-times caused by occupation of the waterway. The many ports connected to the Paran river and the Rio de la Plata have not been simulated in detail. It is recommended to study the ability of these ports to receive the predicted number of vessels in the future. The ports and their capacity are an important link in a fluent traffic flow. G) The simulation model Harboursim was used in this thesis. Two possible alterations to the software might improve the model. 1. Speed adjustment At present Harboursim attaches per fleet one sail time to a certain section. If a VTS notices that a vessel cannot proceed directly, it is put on hold creating a waiting time. It is in reality however possible for a vessel to increase speed to avoid a certain conflict of rules. Implementation of this aspect can be subject to further study. 2. Ship priority and predictive ability E. Goemans, a former student at DUT, created the possibility in Harboursim to attach priority to a certain fleet. A extra check was created for the VTS to take the ship with highest priority from its queue and check its ability to leave and start sailing. However the model is not yet capable to compare vessels coming from different directions. This can be explained by an exemplarily situation that is known within the Rio de la Plata (reference map: Figure 4-4 on page 34 ): When a bulk carrier coming from IP80 re-enters the Rio de la Plata, he is checked at WA64 to proceed. If the vessel receives permission to proceed, a container carrier towards Buenos Aires might arrive at Zona Comun one minute later to be checked on his ability to proceed. If the container carrier has to wait for x minutes because he cannot meet the departed bulk carrier at km.12, the model notes this waiting time of x minutes to the container carrier. Considering the tight schedule involved in container shipment, it is likely the bulk carrier will be told by PNA to hold still or reduce speed so the container carrier can proceed. But
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since the bulk carrier has already passed the WA64 VTS, his route and speed are fixed. If the VTS at W64 would have been able to look 1 minute into the future, he could have held the bulk carrier for some time to help the passage to the container carrier. If this extra intelligence can be added to Harboursim can be investigated. Alteration of the Harboursim software can be useful for modelling waterways where the essence is put in waterway occupation.
8.4 Possible waterway adjustment

This thesis has studied the waiting times experienced by cargo ships on their voyage through the Rio de la Plata. This section briefly indicates what alteration might decrease these waiting times. Further study should point out the details and feasibility of this alteration. Within the Punta Indio channel, the stretch from km.150 to km.183 prohibits the encounter between two vessels in opposite direction, both with a draught over 29 feet. In addition the stretch from km.140 to km.150 prohibits all encounters. For the vessels with a draught over 29 feet, an extra section of several kilometres in the middle of km.150-km.183 where encounters are allowed will reduce waiting times. The exact location, impact, the length and related costs can be subject to further study.
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A.
Reference maps
South America
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B.
Fleets in Platasim
The following fleets are used by Platasim. They are classified by route, ship design draught and destination. For each fleet the number of ships recorded in 2002 are given. The specific route for each fleet can be read from the map and table on the next page. The fleet-identity can be read as follows: The first part consists of the destination when coming from Ponton Recalada: BA = Buenos Aires LP = La Plata IP80 = inland point km.80 (fictive port) IP130 = inland point km.130 (fictive port) An exception exist for fleet 11,12,13 and 25. These fleets start at La Plata and their port of destination is defined secondly in the name. The second part is the type of carried cargo (BULK, TANK, GENCA, CONT or PAS). GENCA=general cargo and PAS=passenger ship. For fleet 14,15,16,17 and 18, the second part is the route used towards the inland. EM=Emilio Mitre and MG=Martin Garcia. For these fleets the route when coming from IP80 towards the Ocean is always Emilio Mitre. The third part is the size of vessel by draught as explained in chapter four. Fleet 17 holds ZC in his identification. This represents a service-time spend at Zona Comun at km.57. Fleets 24 and 24 both use Martin Garcia in both directions.
NR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 IDENTITY BACONTL BAPAS BABULKL BATANKL BATANKM BAGENCAL BAGENCAM RLPBULKL RLPTANKL CARGO CONTAINER PASSENGER BULK TANKER TANKER GENERAL CARGO GENERAL CARGO BULK TANKER TANKER TANKER TANKER GENERAL CARGO BULK BULK BULK BULK BULK BULK TANKER CONTAINER GENERAL CARGO GENERAL CARGO BULK TANKER ENTER PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR LP LP LP PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR LP DESTINATION DEPART SIZE BSAS BSAS BSAS BSAS BSAS BSAS BSAS LP LP LP IP80 BSAS IP80 IP80 IP80 IP80 IP80 IP80 IP80 IP80 IP80 IP80 IP80 IP130 IP130 PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR LP LP LP PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR LP L L M L M L L M S S S XL L XL L L L M L L M XL S L NB 2002 772 50 54 194 42 138 28 60 74 43 41 76 131 189 83 518 100 133 138 63 103 100 50 85 65
10 RLPTANKM 11 RLP_IP80TANKS 12 RLP_BATANKS 13 RLP_IP80GENCAS 14 IP80EMBULKXL 15 IP80EMBULKL 16 IP80MGBULKXL 17 IP80ZCMGBULKXL 18 IP80MGBULKL 19 IP80TANKL 20 IP80TANKM 21 IP80CONTL 22 IP80GENCAL 23 IP80GENCAM 24 IP130BULKXL 25 IP130TANKS
The map (next page) shows the location of VTS points (waiting areas and ports) and the table shows the sequence in which they are travelled by each fleet.
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Sequence VTS points VTS 1 VTS 2 VTS 3 VTS 4 VTS 5 VTS 6 VTS 7 VTS 8 VTS 9 Buenos Aires Zona Comun Ponton Recalada
END AT PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR LP LP LP PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR LP
La Plata
WA120
WA64
WA99
IP130
IP80
Nr. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 LP PR EM MG
Identification BACONTL BAPAS BABULKL BATANKL BATANKM BAGENCAL BAGENCAM RLPBULKL RLPTANKL RLPTANKM RLP_IP80TANKS RLP_BATANKS RLP_IP80GENCAS IP80EMBULKXL IP80EMBULKL IP80MGBULKXL IP80ZCMGBULKL IP80MGBULKL IP80TANKL IP80TANKM IP80CONTL IP80GENCAL IP80GENCAM IP130BULKXL IP130TANKS La Plata Ponton Recalada Emilio Mitre channel Marting Garcia channel
Note
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 1
4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
2 2 2 2 2 2 2-4 2-4 2-4 2-5 2-4 2-4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2-5
3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
3 3
4 4
both directions: EM both directions: EM to IP80: MG from IP80: EM to IP80: MG from IP80: EM to IP80: MG from IP80: EM both directions: EM both directions: EM both directions: EM both directions: EM both directions: EM both directions: MG
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C.
Seasonal distribution of traffic 2002
Based on traffic records in 2002 the following chart was created to study seasonal differences in traffic intensity. Based on the graph, no seasonal changes were simulated by Platasim.
MONTH DISTRIBUTION OF SHIPS as recorded in 2002
14,0
MONTHLY/ANNUAL [%]
12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0
CONTAINER BULK CARRIER TANKER GENERAL CARGO
Graph on monthly-distribution of traffic per type of cargo based on 2002 records
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MONTH
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D.
Example weekly depth indication
The table below is an example of the issued data on depths issued to assist pilots to navigate the different channels with sufficient keel clearance.
PROFUNDIDADES MINIMAS AL DIA KM DESDE KM HASTA PASO KM ANCHO (m) PROF. CERO (m)
CRITICO CANAL
239.1 121.0 CANAL PUNTA INDIO 192.5 121.0 81.0 CANAL INTERMEDIO 92.5 81.0 57.0 PASO BANCO CHICO 76.6 57.0 37.0 RADA EXTERIOR 48.3 37.0 12.0 C.ACC.PTO.BUENOS AIRES 35.4 12.0 42.0 CANAL ING.EMILIO MITRE 36.9 42.0 46.3 CANAL ING.EMILIO MITRE 44.3 46.3 48.0 CANAL ING.EMILIO MITRE 47.2 48.0 179.4 PARANA DE LAS PALMAS 57.4 232.0 274.5 266.3 274.5 292.7 ABAJO LOS RATONES 289.7 292.7 295.3 LOS RATONES 293.6 315.0 317.0 ABAJO LAS HERMANAS B.I. 316.1 320.0 324.7 LAS HERMANAS B.I. 320.2 330.0 332.9 TONELERO 331.4 334.0 340.5 338.1 ISLA NUEVA 341.0 343.4 343.0 ABAJO SAN NICOLAS 352.0 354.4 354.3 ABAJO YAGUARON 354.4 362.0 357.4 ARROYO YAGUARON 381.0 386.0 382.5 ISLA PARAGUAYITO 386.0 390.8 390.8 PARAGUAYO 399.0 401.0 399.6 ABAJO ALVEAR 405.5 407.8 407.5 ALVEAR B.I.
100 100 100 100 100 100 130 100 140 116 116 116 116 116 116 130 116 116 116 116 116 116 116
-10.00 -10.20 -10.40 -10.10 -10.40 -10.00 -12.20 -10.80 -10.10 -9.80 -9.20 -9.40 -9.60 -9.00 -9.20 -9.00 -9.20 -9.70 -8.80 -10.30 -8.50 -8.80 -8.40
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E.
Squat calculation
To determine the squat of xl bulk carriers when crossing the two defined Critical Points (-10.0 m below zero-level) the following procedure was used. The method is valid for channels. Since the depths in the Rio de la Plata next to the main channel are small (1 to 3 metres), the squat is calculated as was the ship navigating a closed channel. Where different methods exist for the calculation of squat, the large variety in ships in the Rio de la Plata create unique squat for each different ship. Two methods for the calculation of squat are used below. The first method is as described in Inland waterways by R. Groenveld, 2000. The second method used the empirical formula by Eryuzlu (1994). Width of ship Draught Depth = 35 m = 10 m = 10 m
Method 1: Schijf-method 300 m 10 m 100 m
AC = 100*10 + (200 / 2) *10 = 200m2 AS = 35*100 = 350m AS = 350 / 2000 = 0.175 [-] AC
2
Wet cross-section of channel Ships underwater cross-section
By use of a ship-speed of 6 knots and the Schijf-diagram the return-current was calculated to U R = 0.925m / s . The squat follows :
Z=
(VS + U R ) 2 VS 2 (3.1 + 0.925) 2 3.12 = = 0.35m 2 xg 2 xg 2 x9.81 2 x9.81 h 2 V 2.289 h 2.972 ( ) ( ) Kb T T gT
Method 2: Formula by Eryuzlu (1994)
S b = 0.298
Sb h T V g W B
= maximum squat = water depth (m) = ship draught (m) = ship speed through the water (relative to the undisturbed water) (m/s) = accelartion due to gravity (9.8 m/s2) = channel width, measured at bottom (m) = ship beam (m)
Kb =
3.1 W B
when
W < 9.61 B
Kb=1 when
W 9.61 B
Sb= 0.33 m
Both calculated squats are in the order of 0.3 to 0.35 meters for a velocity of 6 knots.
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F.
Recorded wind-directions 2002
The table below shows an extract of the recorded data on 2002 by Servicio Meteorologica Nacional at Buenos Aires Airport. The data consists of the direction with the highest wind velocity per day. Direction E ENE ESE N NE NNE NNW NW W WNW WSW S SE SW SSE SSW
NB DAYS 35 4 77 28 12 38 14 14 16 7 10 17 20 18 29 26 YEAR % 9.6 1.1 21.1 7.7 3.3 10.4 3.8 3.8 4.4 1.9 2.7 4.7 5.5 4.9 7.9 7.1
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G.
Wind set-up example
[Source: Hidrova S.A. Documentary, based on measurements and calculations]
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H.
Recorded channel closures 2000-2003
Information provided by Hidrova S.A. has shown that in the period 2000 to 2003 at various points in the Rio de la Plata waterway system events occurred in which the certain channels were closed. The events, not further specified here, are caused by the following situations: Dredging activities in which a dredger is situated within the main channel Grounding of deep loaded vessels Engine failure of vessels Interviews with pilots that operate in the Rio de la Plata channels learned that these are the main reasons of closing events. The table below shows the recorded duration of the events and where they occurred. The exact cause for each event is not specified. Four of the events occurred in sections of the Paran River. Nr. of times per year 7:26 1.0 3:15 3.0 8:00 2.0 6:20* 1.0 13:15* 2.0 9:30* 1.0 2:00* 1.0 * Event in inland Paran River Duration River or channel Punta Indio channel Canal de Accesso Canal Emilio Mitre Paran de las Palmas Paran Inferior Paran Medio Pasaje Talavera
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I.
Sail time - velocity table
Table below can be used to compare sailing time over a certain distance with various velocities.
sailing time [minutes] length [km] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 150 200 300 400
* 1 knot = 1.853 km/h
knots* 16 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 61 81 101 121 142 162 182 202 304 405 607 809
14 2 5 7 9 12 14 16 19 21 23 25 28 30 32 35 37 39 42 44 46 69 93 116 139 162 185 208 231 347 463 694 925
12 3 5 8 11 13 16 19 22 24 27 30 32 35 38 40 43 46 49 51 54 81 108 135 162 189 216 243 270 405 540 809 1079
10 3 6 10 13 16 19 23 26 29 32 36 39 42 45 49 52 55 58 62 65 97 130 162 194 227 259 291 324 486 648 971 1295
8 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 121 162 202 243 283 324 364 405 607 809 1214 1619
6 5 11 16 22 27 32 38 43 49 54 59 65 70 76 81 86 92 97 103 108 162 216 270 324 378 432 486 540 809 1079 1619 2159
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J.
Erlang-2 and Weibull distribution function
Both figures below show the Erlang-2 and Weibull-1.1 density functions. Both functions display a large deviation around the mean value indicated by the dotted line. These functions are both commonly used for simulating the random arrival of vessels (inter arrival time) and the service-times in port.
Erlang-2 density graph, mean value= 10.000
Weibull-1.1 density graph, mean value= 5000 ( for example 5000 minutes =3.47 days)
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K.
Inter arrival distributions
In order to simulate the arrival of ships belonging to the different fleets, statistical functions are used from which Platasim randomly draws the arrival times. The table below shows what functions are used for the fleets defined in Platasim. Parameter 1 ( the mean inter arrival time) is not given for it changes when the traffic intensity is changed.
Statistic Parameter function 2 WEIBULL 1.04 UNIFORM WEIBULL 1.2 ERLANG 2 ERLANG 2 ERLANG 2 ERLANG 2 WEIBULL 1.19 WEIBULL 1.19 WEIBULL 1.12 ERLANG 2 WEIBULL 1.1 WEIBULL 1.21 ERLANG 2 ERLANG 2 WEIBULL 1.1 ERLANG 2 ERLANG 2 WEIBULL 1.08 ERLANG 2 ERLANG 1 WEIBULL 1.18 ERLANG 2 ERLANG 2 WEIBULL 1.31
NB ID. 1 BACONTL 2 BAPAS 3 BABULKL 4 BATANKL 5 BATANKM 6 BAGENCAL 7 BAGENCAM 8 RLPBULKL 9 RLPTANKL 10 RLPTANKM 11 RLP_IP80TANKS 12 RLP_BATANKS 13 RLP_IP80GENCAS 14 IP80EMBULKXL 15 IP80EMBULKL 16 IP80MGBULKXL 17 IP80ZCMGBULKL 18 IP80MGBULKL 19 IP80TANKL 20 IP80TANKM 21 IP80CONTL 22 IP80GENCAL 23 IP80GENCAM 24 IP130BULKXL 25 IP130TANKS
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L.
Draught [ft] > 15 <24 S >24 <29 M >29 <33 L >33 XL Draught classification
S S M L XL RULE : A M L XL S
Navigation rules per section

LOA* [m] 60 - 100 110 170 120 - 200 150 - 280
S M L XL
XL S M L XL
XL S M L XL
XL
B WHITE GRAY
C Crossing and overtaking allowed Crossing and overtaking prohibited
Rules by draugth classification
SECTION FROM TO L [km] 1 210 239 29 2 201 210 9 3 195 201 6 4 183 195 12 5 150 183 33 6 140 150 10 7 121 140 19 8 99 121 22 9 98 99 1 10 60 98 38 11 59 60 1 12 54 60 6 13 60 210 150 14 53 54 1 15 56 59 3 16 41 56 15 17 37 41 4 18 36 37 1 19 33 36 3 20 16 33 17 21 12 16 4 22 0 12 12
RULE A A C A C B A A A A A A A A A A B B B A B B
SECTION FROM TO L [km] 23 12 12 0.5 24 0 1 1 25 12 16 4 26 16 38.5 22.5 27 38.5 40 1.5 28 40 42 2 29 42 48 6 30 48 64 16 31 64 65 1 32 65 80 15 33 80 80 1 34 IP80 IP130 140 35 37 41 4 36 41 58 17 37 58 60 2 45 60 88 28 38 88 93 5 39 93 99 6 40 99 104 5 41 104 120 16 42 120 121 1 43 121 130 9 44 130 131 1
RULE B B B A B A B A A A A A B B D B A B A B A A A
Rules for different sections
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M. Delay cost calculation

Table below relates the waiting time for year 2002 and 2020 (Case II) to the daily equivalent charter rate.
TMWT [minutes] 2002 2020 BACONTL 207 274 BABULKL 143 174 BATANKL 146 193 BATANKM 133 181 BAGENCAL 175 225 BAGENCAM 147 191 RLPBULKL 98 126 RLPTANKL 93 137 RLPTANKM 76 137 RLP_IP80TANKS 95 129 RLP_BATANKS 135 167 RLP_IP80GENCAS 101 121 IP80EMBULKXL 179 223 IP80EMBULKL 130 177 IP80MGBULKXL 178 211 IP80ZCMGBULKXL 186 221 IP80MGBULKL 114 154 IP80TANKL 147 197 IP80TANKM 114 161 IP80CONTL 142 198 IP80GENCAL 142 212 IP80GENCAM 118 153 IP130BULKXL 121 187 IP130TANKS 110 170 Mean 134 180 TMWT = total mean waiting time DECR = daily equivalent charter rate DECR [US$] 20,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 20,000 20,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 20,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 15,000 15,000 Delay cost per ship [US$] 2002 2020 2875 3799 1484 1810 1523 2005 1380 1888 2434 3122 2035 2646 1016 1307 969 1427 789 1422 984 1339 1406 1742 1406 1674 1865 2318 1349 1841 1849 2193 1932 2299 1182 1599 1534 2047 1188 1672 1976 2747 1972 2948 1639 2128 1263 1943 1141 1773 Total Number of ships 2002 781 55 205 45 142 38 65 73 49 47 75 126 199 87 544 91 128 135 62 107 94 48 85 69 3350 2020 981 91 205 45 78 22 102 73 49 47 75 70 319 141 874 148 213 135 62 137 53 27 136 69 4152 Cost per fleet per year [US$] 2002 2020 2,245,375 3,726,438 81,641 164,701 312,305 411,068 62,109 84,961 345,632 243,479 77,319 58,208 66,016 133,344 70,719 104,177 38,664 69,672 46,266 62,911 105,469 130,664 177,188 117,153 371,052 739,349 117,359 259,602 1,005,833 1,916,427 175,839 340,323 151,333 340,578 207,070 276,328 73,625 103,656 211,399 376,274 185,389 156,240 78,667 57,469 107,357 264,208 78,703 122,367 6394330 10261616
1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
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N.
Simulation results Case I, II, III and IV
This appendix displays the results of simulated cases from chapter six. Case I In case I the number of ships for each fleet per year are increased with 10% each simulation run. Although this increase is not expected at present, this study is performed in order to research the behaviour of the Rio de la Plata traffic to this increase. Case II Case II simulates the behaviour of the traffic flow after changes of traffic intensity as predicted up to year 2020. In addition the predicted rate of change from 2015 to 2020 has been extended to 2025 and 2030 for which no predictions are available. The predictions show that both increase in bulk and container traffic is to be expected. The number of annual tankers through the Rio de la Plata remains the same. The number of general cargo vessels declines. Case III In this study the rerouting of dry bulk carriers (not tankers) with inland destinations is applied. This study is performed in order to determine if waiting times can be reduced if less vessels have to cross each other within the Martin Garcia and Emilio Mitre channels. Case IV The simulations as in case II have been repeated with the passing of fifty passenger vessels from the Ocean to Buenos Aires and back. These vessels demand to sail this stretch without the encounter of cargo vessels. This puts extra stress on the waterway system. The results are displayed on the following pages.
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Number of ships Simulation number 1 2 3 779 850 930 55 205 45 142 38 65 73 49 47 75 126 199 87 544 91 128 135 62 107 94 48 85 69 3349 63 225 49 156 42 73 81 54 51 85 140 222 96 596 100 140 145 68 118 104 52 93 76 3681 70 249 53 172 47 79 91 58 56 93 156 242 106 655 111 157 159 75 129 113 58 101 84 4047 4 1022 78 270 60 190 51 88 100 64 62 101 168 264 116 722 122 175 178 83 142 124 64 113 93 4454 5 1127 85 295 65 211 57 96 108 73 70 111 186 290 129 795 134 194 200 92 157 137 71 123 103 4914 6 1237 93 332 71 230 63 105 122 78 75 124 208 323 141 872 148 209 211 100 172 150 77 135 112 5394 7 1385 97 365 79 247 66 117 129 89 84 135 221 350 159 955 165 226 240 112 185 165 85 152 126 5941 8 1526 108 401 87 276 73 125 142 94 93 146 247 386 171 1058 179 249 265 122 206 184 95 165 134 6540 9 1686 116 439 95 297 85 154 155 106 96 170 267 421 189 1099 196 275 286 134 227 199 102 175 156 7134 10 1863 128 478 104 330 91 164 173 120 108 181 291 463 204 1217 213 308 326 150 245 222 112 196 171 7868
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
BACONTL BAPAS BABULKL BATANKL BATANKM BAGENCAL BAGENCAM RLPBULKL RLPTANKL RLPTANKM RLP_IP80TANKS RLP_BATANKS RLP_IP80GENCAS IP80EMBULKXL IP80EMBULKL IP80MGBULKXL IP80ZCMGBULKL IP80MGBULKL IP80TANKL IP80TANKM IP80CONTL IP80GENCAL IP80GENCAM IP130BULKXL IP130TANKS Total
Mean waiting time [minutes] Simulation number 1 2 3 1 BACONTL 209 227 267 2 BAPAS 3 BABULKL 149 176 181 4 BATANKL 157 177 199 5 BATANKM 144 168 193 6 BAGENCAL 189 192 226 7 BAGENCAM 150 166 186 8 RLPBULKL 110 96 119 9 RLPTANKL 99 111 127 10 RLPTANKM 85 110 115 11 RLP_IP80TANKS 82 111 136 12 RLP_BATANKS 124 137 154 13 RLP_IP80GENCAS 100 107 122 14 IP80EMBULKXL 179 197 208 15 IP80EMBULKL 130 151 167 16 IP80MGBULKXL 180 192 207 17 IP80ZCMGBULKXL 184 193 220 18 IP80MGBULKL 116 129 148 19 IP80TANKL 139 158 180 20 IP80TANKM 130 127 169 21 IP80CONTL 148 177 199 22 IP80GENCAL 148 169 192 23 IP80GENCAM 127 141 181 24 IP130BULKXL 134 150 161 25 IP130TANKS 92 111 148
4 306 214 233 235 262 213 147 157 148 175 209 155 254 181 228 250 163 216 202 238 214 191 203 174
5 353 263 285 269 312 268 207 194 186 183 262 192 296 224 259 277 195 248 208 267 257 241 215 230
6 415 319 332 309 358 309 235 238 233 220 290 228 327 269 288 317 224 298 243 315 297 290 262 260
7 480 0 390 384 379 432 394 285 296 331 277 345 308 358 350 328 344 266 370 314 352 345 317 318 313
8 570 0 475 477 472 524 436 423 398 427 372 435 369 455 386 404 435 372 418 370 470 429 423 406 422
9 700 566 620 544 624 582 513 567 578 560 617 573 554 519 534 614 516 569 590 583 574 515 526 589
10 885 0 769 822 772 833 742 796 813 868 720 858 769 739 652 671 698 627 726 715 734 683 664 700 767
Result Case study I: Number of ships increase 10% to previous simulation
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number of generated ships Simulated year 2002 2005 1 BACONTL 781 781 2 BAPAS 3 BABULKL 55 62 4 BATANKL 205 205 5 BATANKM 45 45 6 BAGENCAL 142 142 7 BAGENCAM 38 38 8 RLPBULKL 65 73 9 RLPTANKL 73 73 10 RLPTANKM 49 49 11 RLP_IP80TANKS 47 47 12 RLP_BATANKS 75 75 13 RLP_IP80GENCAS 126 126 14 IP80EMBULKXL 199 221 15 IP80EMBULKL 87 96 16 IP80MGBULKXL 544 593 17 IP80ZCMGBULKL 91 100 18 IP80MGBULKL 128 140 19 IP80TANKL 135 135 20 IP80TANKM 62 62 21 IP80CONTL 107 107 22 IP80GENCAL 94 94 23 IP80GENCAM 48 48 24 IP130BULKXL 85 93 25 IP130TANKS 69 69 total 3350 3474 total mean waiting time Simulated year 2002 2005 207 209 143 146 133 175 147 98 93 76 95 135 101 179 130 178 186 114 147 114 142 142 118 121 110 141 152 136 177 136 93 113 85 104 138 109 191 142 173 188 115 155 140 166 146 138 122 122
2010 840 72 205 45 118 32 81 73 49 47 75 106 248 110 676 113 161 135 62 117 79 40 104 69 3657
2015 904 82 205 45 99 26 93 73 49 47 75 89 280 123 767 130 185 135 62 125 66 33 118 69 3880
2020 981 91 205 45 78 22 102 73 49 47 75 70 319 141 874 148 213 135 62 137 53 27 136 69 4152
2025 1072 105 205 45 65 17 118 73 49 47 75 58 363 162 993 172 247 135 62 148 44 22 156 69 4502
2030 1159 117 205 45 52 13 136 73 49 47 75 46 412 187 1128 197 284 135 62 159 37 18 176 69 4881
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
BACONTL BAPAS BABULKL BATANKL BATANKM BAGENCAL BAGENCAM RLPBULKL RLPTANKL RLPTANKM RLP_IP80TANKS RLP_BATANKS RLP_IP80GENCAS IP80EMBULKXL IP80EMBULKL IP80MGBULKXL IP80ZCMGBULKXL IP80MGBULKL IP80TANKL IP80TANKM IP80CONTL IP80GENCAL IP80GENCAM IP130BULKXL IP130TANKS
2010 231 147 175 147 199 181 107 115 113 135 155 108 206 161 185 189 127 167 137 179 159 150 146 132
2015 252 154 183 170 235 169 117 129 143 120 140 133 208 142 194 218 146 171 155 195 191 164 159 144
2020 274 174 193 181 225 191 126 137 137 129 167 121 223 177 211 221 154 197 161 198 212 153 187 170
2025 306 210 218 210 263 277 151 190 156 170 169 146 247 194 223 243 183 220 195 240 215 213 224 213
2030 335 0 229 244 279 289 235 191 213 200 155 186 160 265 219 255 260 206 263 224 258 264 239 254 253
Result Case study II: Traffic change on predictions to 2020, extended to 2030
Anton Frima
TU Delft, 2004
119
Number of ships Simulation number 1 2 3 781 846 915 55 205 45 142 38 65 73 49 47 75 126 62 224 49 155 41 73 80 54 51 84 139 69 245 52 170 46 77 89 58 55 91 153 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 997 1098 1196 1310 1449 1584 1737 76 265 58 187 50 85 97 62 60 99 166 82 287 63 204 55 93 106 69 66 108 180 87 314 70 226 59 99 118 76 73 119 196 91 350 74 237 64 112 121 84 81 128 211 103 383 83 259 68 120 135 91 88 138 234 112 416 90 287 77 133 148 98 95 152 255 118 452 96 305 87 157 159 109 101 172 274
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
BACONTL BAPAS BABULKL BATANKL BATANKM BAGENCAL BAGENCAM RLPBULKL RLPTANKL RLPTANKM RLP_IP80TANKS RLP_BATANKS RLP_IP80GENCAS IP80EMBULKXL IP80EMBULKL IP80MGBULKXL IP80ZCMGBULKL IP80MGBULKL IP80TANKL IP80TANKM IP80CONTL IP80GENCAL IP80GENCAM IP130BULKXL IP130TANKS total
840 91 209 135 62 107 94 48
920 1001 1096 1198 1311 1425 1549 1699 1820 99 110 118 130 143 159 169 185 200 233 255 282 306 335 352 388 423 446 144 157 173 192 213 226 251 273 302 68 73 80 89 96 108 117 126 139 118 127 139 153 166 175 194 217 232 104 112 121 133 146 158 175 189 206 51 57 63 69 76 81 89 97 105
69 75 83 91 99 108 119 129 141 160 3357 3672 3998 4369 4785 5233 5673 6220 6806 7387
Total mean waiting time [minutes] Simulation number 1 2 3 1 BACONTL 204 227 267 2 BAPAS 3 BABULKL 158 176 181 4 BATANKL 152 177 199 5 BATANKM 136 168 193 6 BAGENCAL 180 192 226 7 BAGENCAM 139 166 186 8 RLPBULKL 80 96 119 9 RLPTANKL 91 111 127 10 RLPTANKM 78 110 115 11 RLP_IP80TANKS 88 111 136 12 RLP_BATANKS 121 137 154 13 RLP_IP80GENCAS 96 107 122 14 IP80EMBULKXL 15 IP80EMBULKL 16 IP80MGBULKXL 162 192 207 17 IP80ZCMGBULKL 176 193 220 18 IP80MGBULKL 109 129 148 19 IP80TANKL 151 158 180 20 IP80TANKM 105 127 169 21 IP80CONTL 146 177 199 22 IP80GENCAL 154 169 192 23 IP80GENCAM 120 141 181 24 IP130BULKXL 25 IP130TANKS 119 111 148
4 292 196 223 195 260 192 121 136 133 145 167 135
5 327 250 263 236 298 263 170 178 150 168 210 175
6 374 278 292 292 324 258 194 217 168 172 236 197
7 430 320 356 349 401 371 260 259 240 252 289 257
8 508 394 407 407 463 385 308 338 308 282 381 297
9 617 535 539 506 582 491 425 449 436 348 448 391
10 733 580 670 616 669 525 547 596 549 503 602 515
202 218 155 198 179 201 198 199 187
225 262 184 234 194 248 236 210 214
250 274 199 262 242 279 264 203 247
288 330 239 293 286 321 326 286 325
339 390 295 346 353 406 391 342 382
440 454 382 473 443 481 486 471 460
518 526 482 574 552 614 586 583 676
Results Case III: Rerouting bulk traffic and number of ships increase 10% ref. to previous simulation
Anton Frima
TU Delft, 2004
120
Mean waiting time [minutes] SIMULATED YEAR 2002 2005 1 BACONTL 338 336 2 BAPAS 0 0 3 BABULKL 237 272 4 BATANKL 227 242 5 BATANKM 348 348 6 BAGENCAL 261 282 7 BAGENCAM 237 239 8 RLPBULKL 174 154 9 RLPTANKL 143 147 10 RLPTANKM 137 133 11 RLP_IP80TANKS 104 92 12 RLP_BATANKS 178 208 13 RLP_IP80GENCAS 132 147 14 IP80EMBULKXL 273 273 15 IP80EMBULKL 205 247 16 IP80MGBULKXL 249 268 17 IP80ZCMGBULKL 258 278 18 IP80MGBULKL 197 178 19 IP80TANKL 239 228 20 IP80TANKM 186 178 21 IP80CONTL 217 221 22 IP80GENCAL 214 212 23 IP80GENCAM 187 194 24 IP130BULKXL 212 195 25 IP130TANKS 127 142 Mean over all fleets 203 209 Total number of ships per year 2002 805 50 57 205 42 144 40 74 76 46 44 71 123 195 88 509 90 126 138 61 98 104 45 91 72 3394 2005 805 50 63 205 42 144 40 81 76 46 44 71 123 217 94 564 99 137 138 61 98 104 45 98 72 3517
2010 359 0 196 246 384 276 261 253 182 146 105 225 147 285 258 275 297 239 276 223 244 299 237 208 137 230
2015 374 1 258 286 373 377 232 168 167 209 173 216 165 301 253 285 315 225 288 240 294 300 263 262 157 247
2020 399 28 312 308 320 348 292 211 203 206 105 261 150 303 261 300 320 240 293 243 331 302 168 251 174 253
2025 424 1 296 278 342 376 260 262 244 244 138 221 173 366 307 315 335 261 322 249 360 356 422 277 234 283
2030 453 57 334 327 425 397 489 253 241 258 183 261 173 358 304 349 334 325 331 305 380 338 345 325 220 311
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
BACONTL BAPAS BABULKL BATANKL BATANKM BAGENCAL BAGENCAM RLPBULKL RLPTANKL RLPTANKM RLP_IP80TANKS RLP_BATANKS RLP_IP80GENCAS IP80EMBULKXL IP80EMBULKL IP80MGBULKXL IP80ZCMGBULKL IP80MGBULKL IP80TANKL IP80TANKM IP80CONTL IP80GENCAL IP80GENCAM IP130BULKXL IP130TANKS total
2010 862 50 74 205 42 119 33 90 76 46 44 71 100 246 109 647 112 156 138 61 102 90 39 109 72 3693
2015 927 50 81 205 42 100 27 102 76 46 44 71 83 277 122 722 128 180 138 61 116 75 33 122 72 3900
2020 1002 50 92 205 42 77 24 116 76 46 44 71 70 315 137 822 143 202 138 61 128 61 26 135 72 4155
2025 1083 50 102 205 42 63 18 131 76 46 44 71 55 351 159 930 168 231 138 61 139 46 20 148 72 4449
2030 1192 50 115 205 42 47 14 146 76 46 44 71 44 407 181 1062 191 263 138 61 154 38 17 169 72 4845
Results case IV: increase of traffic predicted to 2030 with passenger vessels
Anton Frima
TU Delft, 2004
121
O.
List of references
Anuario, Portuario y Martimo 2003, XIII edition, auspices Buenos Aires Port, Argentina Anuario, Portuario y Martimo 2003, Special edition, auspices Buenos Aires Port, Argentina McConville, J.(1999), Economics of Maritime Transport: Theory and Practice, London, Witherby, United Kingdom Goemans, E.C.J. (2003), Maasvlakte II, Capaciteit natte infrastructuur, beoordeling bij veschillende alternatieven, M.Sc. Thesis report, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Delft UT, The Netherlands Groenveld, R. (2000), Inland Waterways, Lecture notes CT4330, Delft UT, The Netherlands Groenveld, R. (2004), Manual model Harboursim, a tool to estimate port capacities. Delft UT, The Netherlands Groenveld, R. (2001), Service Systems in Ports and Inland Waterways, Lecture notes CT4330/5306, Delft UT, The Netherlands Ligteringen, H. (2000), Ports and Terminals . Lecture notes Ctwa4330/5306, TU Delft, The Netherlands Meester, L.E. (2000), De procesbeschrijvingsmethode en simuleren met Prosim, Lecture notes WI4070, Delft UT, The Netherlands Pea, I.M. (2003), Paran del Plata Waterway system: Present situation and alternatives for future development. M.Sc. thesis-report UNESCO-IHE Delft , The Netherlands Prefectura Naval Argentina (2002, Ordenanza Martima N4-2000(DPSN) "Regimen operativo del buque", Buenos Aires, Argentina Prosim B.V. (1999), Prosim Modelling Language, Tutorial, The Netherlands Riovia S.A. (2002), Reglamento de uso y navegacin de los Canales de Martn Garca. Version Corregida Diciembre 2002 (www.Riovia.com) Stopford, M.(2000), Maritime Economics, London, United Kingdom UNCTAD (2003), Review of Maritime Transport 2003. Reference to internet: www.itf.org.uk/ www.hidro.gov.ar www.unctad.org www.mecon.gov.ar/transporte/direccion.htm Software: Bestfit (statistical analysis) Prosim (simulation software by Prosim B.V. Netherlands)
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TU Delft, 2004
122
List of tables
Table 1-1 Channel dimensions ......................................................................................................................11 Table 1-2 Toll income 2001 ..........................................................................................................................12 Table 1-3 World exchange 2002 in metric tons ............................................................................................13 Table 1-4 Predicted number of vessel to year 2020 ......................................................................................14 Table 1-5 Exported volumes of grain, by-products and oil in tons by Argentina..........................................14 Table 1-6 Container ports in the world.........................................................................................................15 Table 1-7 Number of handled TEUs by Buenos Aires ..................................................................................16 Table 1-8 Martin Garcia channel dredging volumes ...................................................................................16 Table 1-9 Bulk carrier classification ............................................................................................................18 Table 1-10 Container carrier characteristics ...............................................................................................19 Table 4-1 Rio de la Plata channels ...............................................................................................................32 Table 4-2 Cargo classification......................................................................................................................36 Table 4-3 shipping routes..............................................................................................................................37 Table 4-4 classification by length and draught .............................................................................................38 Table 4-5 Ship velocity [knots] used in Platasim ..........................................................................................39 Table 4-6 Fog registration by Servicio Meteorologico Nacional Argentina, recorded at airport Buenos Aires and La Plata in 2002..........................................................................................42 Table 4-7 Wind velocity limits for port closures ...........................................................................................43 Table 4-8 Wind-direction recorded at Buenos Aires with velocity > 60 km/hr.............................................43 Table 4-9 Points critical depth.....................................................................................................................45 Table 4-10 Service time per type of cargo.....................................................................................................47 Table 5-1 Number of ships generated in Basic Sate .....................................................................................52 Table 5-2 Mean waiting time per run ...........................................................................................................53 Table 5-3 Platasim output on waiting times Basic State (no fog, storm, passenger vessels or .....................54 Table 5-4 Total mean waiting time Basic state .............................................................................................56 Table 5-5 Mean waiting time with and without fog.......................................................................................58 Table 5-6 Comparison mean waiting time storm and no storm ...................................................................58 Table 5-7 Comparison mean waiting time with and without tidal windows (tw) ..........................................59 Table 5-8 Comparison mean waiting time with and without passenger vessels............................................61 Table 5-9 Ship velocity [knots] used in Platasim ..........................................................................................62 Table 5-10 Comparison mean waiting time with uniform navigation speed.................................................63 Table 6-1 Turn around times.........................................................................................................................66 Table 6-2 waiting time at service points for run 1 and 10.............................................................................69 Table 6-3 Predicted number of cargo vessels ...............................................................................................72 Table 6-4 Percentage change of number of ships referenced .......................................................................73 Table 6-5 Number of ships per year per type of cargo .................................................................................73 Table 6-6 Comparison total waiting time 2002 to 2020 and 2030................................................................75 Table 6-7 Waiting time at service point for 2002 and 2030 ..........................................................................76 Table 6-8 Comparison results case II to total turn around time per fleet .....................................................77 Table 7-1 Annual cost by delay based on charter rate for 2002 and 2020 in Rio de la Plata .....................91 Table 7-2 Voyage cash flow analysis (example) ...........................................................................................94 Table 7-3 Cost perspective fuel consumption and sail time ..........................................................................95 Table 7-4 Cost perspective sail speed - distance - fuel consumption for Capesize carrier .........................96
List of figures
Figure 1-1 Area map ......................................................................................................................................9 Figure 1-2 Rio de la Plata waterway channels .............................................................................................10 Figure 1-3 World transport in metric tons by mode of transport..................................................................13 Figure 1-4 stretch km.39 to km.66 subject to dredging.................................................................................17 Figure 1-5 Design draught bulk carriers at Ponton Recalada in 2002.........................................................18 Figure 1-6 Size indication container carrier at Ponton Recalada 2002 .......................................................19 Figure 1-7 Size indication tankers at Ponton Recalada 2002.......................................................................19
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TU Delft, 2004
123
Figure 1-8 Size indication general cargo carriers at Ponton Recalada 2002 ..............................................20 Figure 2-1 Rio de la Plata estuary and channel ...........................................................................................21 Figure 3-1 Harboursim flow scheme.............................................................................................................28 Figure 3-2 Ship flow scheme.........................................................................................................................29 Figure 4-1 Platasim described area ..............................................................................................................31 Figure 4-2 Rio de la Plata waterway channels .............................................................................................32 Figure 4-3 Zona Contigua Norte and Sur .....................................................................................................33 Figure 4-4 Rio de la Plata VTS-points ..........................................................................................................34 Figure 4-5 Rio de la Plata scheme................................................................................................................35 Figure 4-6 Traffic destinations......................................................................................................................37 Figure 4-7 Navigation rules indication.........................................................................................................41 Figure 4-8 Location of points with depth=-10.0 m ref. to L.I.M.B. used for tidal windows ........................45 Figure 4-9 Squat and keel clearance..............................................................................................................46 Figure 4-10 Schematic representation Platasim ............................................................................................50 Figure 5-1 Comparison mean waiting time between runs.............................................................................53 Figure 5-2 Waiting time distribution Batankl at Buenos Aires .....................................................................55 Figure 5-3 Bacontl total waiting time per ship .............................................................................................57 Figure 5-4 Cumulative distribution function.................................................................................................57 Figure 5-5 Ip80embulkxl total w.t. per ship ..................................................................................................57 Figure 5-6 Cumulative distribution function.................................................................................................57 Figure 5-7 Ip80mgbulkxl total w.t. per ship..................................................................................................57 Figure 5-8 Cumulative distribution function.................................................................................................57 Figure 5-9 Tidal window: Check points WA64 and WA99............................................................................59 Figure 5-10 Comparison mean waiting time at WA64 with and without tidal windows for fleet 16 xl bulk carriers..................................................................................................................................................60 Figure 5-11 Comparison waiting time fleet 16 at WA99 with and without passenger vessels......................61 Figure 6-1 Section sail with reduced sailing speed.......................................................................................67 Figure 6-2 Number of ships per run with 10% increase ...............................................................................67 Figure 6-3Results for traffic to Buenos Aires ...............................................................................................68 Figure 6-4Results for traffic from La Plata ..................................................................................................68 Figure 6-5 results for bulk carriers to IP80 and IP130 ................................................................................68 Figure 6-6 Results for tankers and gen. cargo to IP80 .................................................................................68 Figure 6-7 Results for traffic to La Plata from Ponton Recalada .................................................................68 Figure 6-8 Increase of mean waiting time per simulation for fleet 1-12.......................................................70 Figure 6-9 Increase of mean waiting time per simulation for fleet 13-25.....................................................70 Figure 6-10 Results for ships to Buenos Aires ..............................................................................................74 Figure 6-11 Results for bulk carriers to IP80 and IP130 .............................................................................74 Figure 6-12 Results for ships to La Plata .....................................................................................................74 Figure 6-13 Results from La Plata to other port...........................................................................................74 Figure 6-14 Results ships to IP80 general cargo, tanker, container ............................................................74 Figure 6-15 Number of ships per run case III...............................................................................................79 Figure 6-16 Results Case III rerouting bulk carriers compared to case I ....................................................79 Figure 6-17 Ships to Buenos Aires................................................................................................................82 Figure 6-18 Ships to La Plata ......................................................................................................................82 Figure 6-19 Ships from La Plata to other ports ...........................................................................................82 Figure 6-20 Bulk carriers to IP80.................................................................................................................82 Figure 6-21 Non-bulk carriers to IP80 and IP130........................................................................................82 Figure 7-1 Cost distribution between shipowner and charterer/shipper ......................................................87 Figure 7-2 Bulk carrier daily equivalent charter rate ..................................................................................88 Figure 7-3 Container carrier daily equivalent charter rate..........................................................................89 Figure 7-4 Cash flow model..........................................................................................................................93
Anton Frima
TU Delft, 2004
124

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Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

Anton Frima Octobre 2004, Delft University of Technology

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

2. 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6

3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 4. 4.1 4.2

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

5.7 5.8 5.9 6. 6.1 6.2

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

Figure 1-1 Area map

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

1.2 Physical characteristics of the Rio de la Plata 1.2.1 Channel description

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

To 37 48 145 57 81 121 239

Length [km] 37 36 107 20 24 40 118

Width [m] 75-100 110 90 110 150 200 250

Depth [m]* 10.0 10.0 9.4 10.6 10.8 10.7 10.7

varying varying varying varying

1.2.2 Emilio Mitre versus Martin Garcia

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

1.3 Concessions on waterway management 1.3.1 Introduction

1.3.2 Hidrova S.A.

1.3.3 Riovia S.A.

1.3.4 Toll income

Table 1-2 Toll income 2001

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

1.4 Economic perspective 1.4.1 Introduction

2708,1 2804,4 2818,8 2880,6

1.4.2 Economic situation: present and future

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

Predicted number of vessels Design draught range

1.4.3 Grain, oil and by products

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

1.4.4 Other products

1.4.5 Container and vehicle transport

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

1.4.6 Passenger ships

1.5 Sedimentation and maintenance of the waterways

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

1.6 Ports and traffic

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

1.6.2 Bulk carriers

Figure 1-5 Design draught bulk carriers at Ponton Recalada in 2002

Table 1-9 Bulk carrier classification

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

design draught range [FT]

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

design draught range [FT]

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

Figure 2-1 Rio de la Plata estuary and channel

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

Scope of interest and involved parties

Capacity and congestion

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

Ship turn around times

2.6.1 Thesis steps

Capacity study for the Rio de la Plata waterway, Argentina

2.6.2 Collection of information