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Global ice cream industry strategic market, international trade & production review

Report # 1 in Dairymark.coms Strategic global industry review series of publications February 2008

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Dairymark.com is a division of Shainwright Consulting & Research Group Pty Ltd, and is a specialist dairy industry intelligence and consulting organization. The company has completed a number of strategic, market and business development dairy research assignments for Australian and international clients. Recent examples include: Bangladesh dairy market study An overview of global dairy supply and demand A longitudinal dairy pricing study A strategic review of dairy industry patent activity A strategic review of dairy R&D activity A strategic review of trends in whey permeate utilization A study of the Australasian dairy industry Strategic research identifying trends and opportunities in Asian feed markets for dairy ingredients

In addition the company has published multi-client reports, including: Milk ingredients a strategic review of opportunities and applications in the oral care industry Dairy carbohydrates a strategic review of opportunities and applications Dairy permeates a strategic review of opportunities and applications Buttermilk a strategic review of opportunities and applications Colostrum a strategic review of opportunities and applications

Contact details are advised as follows: Dairymark.com A division of Shainwright Consulting and Research Group Pty Ltd PO Box 3274 Norwood, SA 5067 AUSTRALIA Email: info@dairymark.com Internet: www.dairymark.com Telephone/Facsimile: +61-8-8339 8185

Global ice cream industry strategic market, international trade & production review A new report on the global ice cream industry is the most current definitive report on the size and trends in the industry, with coverage of all major countries. The report is predicated by the fact that the global ice cream industry is large and growing, with yet more opportunities for market development by key players and participants including processors, equipment suppliers, ingredient suppliers, packaging companies, international traders and retailers. This is especially the case as the rapidly developing China market comes on stream, and the bright prospects of the sleepy Indian market awakening to what much of the rest of the world is fondly embracing. This embrace is ice cream consumption. Global ice cream consumption shows recent trends of strong year-on-year growth in worldwide ice cream consumption, with continuing prospects for strong ongoing growth and development. International trade in ice cream is significant, and again this business is increasing in size. Current global ice cream trade is approaching 1 billion litres per year, with significant prospects for further expansion. Ice cream capacity is responding well to this growth in consumption. However the report suggests that there could be pressure on product availability through 2008, which will provide some impetus to growth in international trade as major players realign their sourcing options and high demand markets pull stock from other regional sources. The report highlights the promise that the U.S. is expected to be best positioned to exploit the opportunities in export trade for ice cream, with a forecast that the U.S. will usurp the EU and become the leading ice cream exporter (excluding intra-EU trade) due to various factors, including: The present low value of the U.S. dollar, providing competitive cost supply options Growth opportunities on its doorstep including markets such as Mexico, Latin America, Canada, as well as an established track record in supply of dairy products to key Asian markets The positive image of ice cream emanating from the U.S. The U.S. as the home to innovation in ice cream The well-recognized ability of the U.S. to produce quality takehome products/desserts that are growing niches in many export markets The report highlights the role of global innovation as an important driver in the expansion of the world ice cream market, and suggests that this will differentiate companies from a competitive perspective.

Examples of the types of information presented in the report are advised as follows: Global Production, Consumption and International Trade million litres, over the period 1998 to 2012 Ice cream consumption trends key markets (million litres)
Market U.S. China Japan Germany Italy U.K. Russia Canada France Australia S. Korea Mexico Spain Chile Sweden N.Z. Poland India Philippines S. Arabia Finland Switzerland Denmark Czech. Rep. Taiwan Singapore Hong Kong UAE Sub-total All others 1998 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 1999 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2000 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2001 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2002 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2003 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2004 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2005 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2006 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2007(e) XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX

Total XXX XXX XXX world Source: Various, as indicated in the current report

Trends in market share global ice cream consumption (volume %)


Market U.S. China Japan Germany Italy U.K. Russia Canada France Australia All others Total world 1998 XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% 100% 2002 XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% 100% 2007(e) XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% 100%

Source: Various, as indicated in the current report

Major ice cream producers (volume, 000 litres p.a.)


Producer United States China Japan Germany Italy Russia France United Kingdom Canada Australia South Korea Belgium Brazil Spain Mexico India Chile Netherlands Argentina Poland New Zealand Sweden Philippines Switzerland Finland Sub-total All others Total 2004 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2005 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2006 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2007(e) XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX

Source: Various, as indicated in the current report

Production estimates key global ice cream manufacturers


Company Nestl Unilever Coolbrands Blue Bell Yili Lotte (Reika & Snow) Fonterra Co-operative Group Ezaki Glico Morinaga Milk Industry Meiji Dairies Inmarko Sammontana Masterfoods Richmond Ice Cream Annual production volume estimates (000 litres) XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX Geographic focus Global Global North America U.S. China Japan Australasia Japan Japan Japan Russia Italy EU U.K.

Source: Various, as indicated in the current report

Per capita consumption of ice cream selected countries (2006)


Country
New Zealand U.S. Australia Finland Sweden Canada Ireland Italy Belgium Netherlands Switzerland Chile U.K. Germany Denmark Japan Singapore France South Korea Spain Russia Argentina China Poland Hong Kong Mexico Taiwan Brazil Philippines India Total world

Population (000)
4,076.1 298,444.2 20,264.1 5,231.4 9,016.6 33,098.9 4,062.2 58,133.5 10,379.1 16,491.5 7,523.9 16,134.2 60,609.2 82,422.3 5,450.7 127,463.6 4,492.2 60,876.1 48,846.8 40,397.8 142,893.5 39,921.8 1,313,973.7 38,536.7 7,040.9 107,449.5 23,036.1 188,078.2 89,468.7 1,095,352.0 6,637,694.9

Ice cream consumption (000 litres)


XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX

Per capita consumption (litres p.a.)


XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Source: Various, as indicated in the current report

Global ice cream imports recent trends and forecasts key markets (000 litres)
Market Mexico EU US China Australia Japan Singapore Switzerland Brazil Canada Russia Hong Kong Taiwan Norway Venezuela Sub-total All others Total 2004 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2005 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2006 XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2007(e) XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2008(f) XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2009(f) XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2010(f) XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2011(f) XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX 2012(f) XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX

Source: Various, as indicated in the current report; Dairymark.com forecasts

Example from report:

INDIA Country overview


Volume (000 litres) Production Imports Exports Apparent consumption 2004 120,334.7 14.1 248.8 120,100.0 2005 134,425.0 7.9 132.9 134,300.0 2006 152,943.5 26.8 170.3 152,800.0 2007(e) 172,201.7 3.7 205.4 172,000.0

Key national population centres:


Mumbai (Bombay) (aggl.) Mumbai (city) New Delhi (aggl.) Delhi Calcutta (aggl.) Calcutta (city) Madras (aggl.) Haidarabad (aggl.) Ahmadabad (aggl.) Bangalore (aggl.) Kanpur 19,000,000 people 10,000,000 people 12,300,000 people 7,500,000 people 13,000,000 people 4,500,000 people 4,000,000 people 3,200,000 people 3,000,000 people 2,800,000 people 2,100,000 people

2007 Prof. Werner Antweiler, University of British Columbia, Canada

Key seasonal climatic trends: 36 29 24 16 5 39 31 53 35 3 34 34 38 1 34 28 23

43 2

21

69 51 42 15 _ _ _ _ Jan Feb Mar Temperatures C 16 _ _ _ _ _

79

3 _ _

13 _ Dec

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Rainfall (mm) in Delhi (Average values for each month)

India has a very poorly developed ice cream industry. Total consumption is growing very strongly, standing at 172 million litres per year. However, with the sheer population size, this means that per capita consumption is only 0.14 litres per year, among the lowest in the world Constraints on consumption are subject to economic conditions, affordability, and product availability (an inadequate cold chain). However, growth in per capita consumption will lead to tremendous volume increases and there is little doubt that this will occur in the short- to medium-term (and beyond). A small volume is imported, and there is some exports to regional markets but generally India plays a minor role in any aspect of ice cream global trade

Example from report:

CANADA ice cream exports


Export volume trends
30,000

Export value trends


70,000

Trends, average export value


6
U.S.

Volume ('000 litres)

Value (US$ '000)

Value (US$/litre)

60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 2004

S.Arabia

25,000

Total

20,000

15,000 2004

0 2005 2006 2007(e) 2004 2005 2006 2007(e)

2005

2006

2007(e)

Market share by key destination (%, volume): 2004 2006

2007(e)

U.S. 80% Australia 4% All others 16%

U.S. 65% S. Arabia 8% Kuwait 8% UAE 6% All others 13%

U.S. 62% S. Arabia 10% Kuwait 9% UAE 8% All others 11%

Export trends, key destinations: U.S. S. Arabia


20,000 3,000

Kuwait
3,000

Volume ('000 litres)

Volume ('000 litres)

15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007(e)

2,000

Volume ('000 litres)


2004 2005 2006 2007(e)

2,000

1,000

1,000

0 2004 2005 2006 2007(e)

UAE
3,000

Australia
1,000

Malaysia
600

Volume ('000 litres)

Volume ('000 litres)

750 500 250 0

2,000

Volume ('000 litres)


2004 2005 2006 2007(e)

400

1,000

200

0 2004 2005 2006 2007(e)

0 2004 2005 2006 2007(e)

Source: Statistics Canada

A strong growth trend is evident for Canada exports up from 18.5 million litres 2004 to 28 million litres 2007(e), growing an average 3.2 million litres (+17%) p.a. U.S. imports achieved 17.4 million litres 2007(e), although volume share fell from 80% 2004 to 62% 2007(e) - much of the share fall is attributed to supply growth to Arab markets, with S. Arabia (10% share), Kuwait (9%) & UAE (8%) joining Australia & Malaysia as key growth destinations Average value of supply strengthened from US$1.92/l 2004 to US$2.43/l 2007(e) and reflects inflation in world dairy trade

Extracts from report:

FRANCE ice cream consumption


France ice cream consumption recent trends
400
Volume Value

2,000

Volume (million litres)

380

1,600

370

1,400

360

1,200

350

1,000

Sources: Trade interviews; trade press

Product mix key categories (volume)


Category Takehome Novelty/impulse Prepared onpremise [1] Other [2] Total
Notes:

19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 0 20 6 07 (e )

1998 Million Share litres (%) 193.0 49.9 110.0 28.5 65.5 16.9 18.0 386.5 4.7 100.0

2002 Million Share litres (%) 163.5 45.9 108.2 30.4 62.5 17.5 22.0 356.2 6.2 100.0

2006 Million Share litres (%) 171.0 46.3 115.0 31.2 65.0 17.6 18.0 369.0 4.9 100.0

RSP value ( million)

390

1,800

2007(e) Million Share litres (%) 176.5 47.0 115.0 30.7 65.5 17.5 18.0 375.0 4.8 100.0

[1] Includes soft serve, artisanal, home-made ice cream products, etc [2] Includes frozen yoghurt, gelato, sherbet, etc. Sources: Trade interviews; trade press

Channel mix key categories (volume)


Category Retail multiples Independent retailers Convenience shops Forecourt outlets [1] Internet sales Discounter stores Food service Total 1998 Million Share litres (%) 202.9 52.5 3.9 1.9 15.5 0 17.4 144.9 386.5 1.0 0.5 4.0 0 4.5 37.5 100.0 2002 Million Share litres (%) 187.1 52.5 2.8 1.8 17.8 0 17.8 128.9 356.2 0.8 0.5 5.0 0 5.0 36.7 100.0 2006 Million Share litres (%) 195.6 53.0 1.8 1.8 24.0 0 22.2 123.6 369.0 0.5 0.5 6.5 0 6.0 33.5 100.0 2007(e) Million Share litres (%) 198.8 53.0 1.9 1.5 24.4 0 22.4 126.0 375.0 0.5 0.4 6.5 0 6.0 33.6 100.0

Notes: [1] Principally gas stations Sources: Trade interviews; trade press

Extracts from report:

FRANCE ice cream consumption (cont.)


Brand share trends (volume)
Brand Magnum Carte dOr La Laitire HagenDazs Extrme Vienetta Mars Mystre Cornetto Flipi Solero Pilpa Romantica Tropicana Carambar Oasis Candia Unbranded Housebrand All others Total Global brand principal Unilever Unilever Nestl General Mills Nestl Unilever Mars, Inc Nestl Unilever Rolland Unilever Alliance AgroAlimentaire Unilever PepsiCo Cadbury Schweppes OranginaSchweppes Sodiaal 2003 Million Share litres (%) 30.9 8.0 30.0 23.2 14.7 17.0 13.1 8.1 6.2 6.2 4.3 4.3 2.3 2.7 1.9 0 1.2 0.8 91.2 56.0 72.3 1,620.0 7.7 6.0 3.8 4.4 3.4 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 0 0.3 0.2 23.7 14.5 18.7 100.0 2004 Million Share litres (%) 27.8 7.8 26.7 20.7 15.3 16.0 11.8 7.5 6.1 5.0 3.9 3.2 2.1 2.1 1.8 0 1.1 0.7 89.0 50.6 64.8 1,665.0 7.5 5.8 4.3 4.5 3.3 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0 0.3 0.2 25.0 14.2 18.2 100.0 2005 Million Share litres (%) 28.4 7.7 26.9 21.4 16.2 16.2 12.9 7.4 5.9 4.8 4.4 2.6 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.1 1.5 0.7 94.5 51.3 66.2 1,670.0 7.3 5.8 4.4 4.4 3.5 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 25.6 13.9 17.9 100.0 2006 Million Share litres (%) 28.6 7.6 270 21.4 17.6 16.5 12.4 7.1 5.6 4.9 4.5 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.1 97.1 52.9 66.0 1,685.0 7.2 5.7 4.7 4.4 3.3 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 25.9 14.1 17.6 100.0

Various

Sources: Trade interviews; trade press

Table of Contents:
1. Executive Summary. 1
1.1. A strategic precursor to the report 1.2. Executive Synopsis 2.1. Volume trends international market, trade & production 2.2. Comparative per capita consumption 2.3. ARGENTINA Country overview 2.4. AUSTRALIA Country overview 2.5. BELGIUM Country overview 2.6. BRAZIL Country overview 2.7. CANADA Country overview 2.8. CHILE Country overview 2.9. CHINA Country overview 2.10. DENMARK Country overview 2.11. FINLAND Country overview 2.12. FRANCE Country overview 2.13. GERMANY Country overview 2.14. HONG KONG Country overview 2.15. INDIA Country overview 2.16. IRELAND Country overview 2.17. ITALY Country overview 2.18. JAPAN Country overview 2.19. MEXICO Country overview 2.20. NETHERLANDS Country overview 2.21. NEW ZEALAND Country overview 2.22. PHILIPPINES Country overview 2.23. POLAND Country overview 2.24. RUSSIA Country overview 2.25. SINGAPORE Country overview 2.26. SOUTH KOREA Country overview 2.27. SPAIN Country overview 2.28. SWEDEN Country overview 2.29. SWITZERLAND Country overview 2.30. TAIWAN Country overview 2.31. UNITED KINGDOM Country overview 2.32. UNITED STATES Country overview 3.1. Global analysis 3.2. Major ice cream producing countries 3.3. Production volume key global players 3.4. Nestl SA brief profile 3.5. Unilever brief profile 4.1. Global overview export trade 4.2. EU export trade 4.3. AUSTRALIA ice cream exports 4.4. BELGIUM ice cream exports 4.5. CANADA ice cream exports 4.6. CHINA ice cream exports 1 3 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 49 52 54 56 57 58 59

2. Global Industry Review.. 11

3. Ice cream production.. 43

4. Export trade volume, value & trend analysis 52

Table of Contents (cont.):


4.7. DENMARK ice cream exports 4.8. FRANCE ice cream exports 4.9. GERMANY ice cream exports 4.10. ITALY ice cream exports 4.11. MALAYSIA ice cream exports 4.12. NETHERLANDS ice cream exports 4.13. NEW ZEALAND ice cream exports 4.14. POLAND ice cream exports 4.15. RUSSIA ice cream exports 4.16. SPAIN ice cream exports 4.17. SWEDEN ice cream exports 4.18. SWITZERLAND ice cream exports 4.19. THAILAND ice cream exports 4.20. UNITED KINGDOM ice cream exports 4.21. UNITED STATES ice cream exports 5.1. Global overview import trade 5.2. EU import trade 5.3. AUSTRALIA ice cream imports 5.4. AUSTRIA ice cream imports 5.5. BELGIUM ice cream imports 5.6. BRAZIL ice cream imports 5.7. CANADA ice cream imports 5.8. CHINA ice cream imports 5.9. DENMARK ice cream imports 5.10. FINLAND ice cream imports 5.11. FRANCE ice cream imports 5.12. GREECE ice cream imports 5.13. HONG KONG ice cream imports 5.14. IRELAND ice cream imports 5.15. ITALY ice cream imports 5.16. GERMANY ice cream imports 5.17. JAPAN ice cream imports 5.18. MEXICO ice cream imports 5.19. NETHERLANDS ice cream imports 5.20. NEW ZEALAND ice cream imports 5.21. NORWAY ice cream imports 5.22. POLAND ice cream imports 5.23. PORTUGAL ice cream imports 5.24. RUSSIA ice cream imports 5.25. SINGAPORE ice cream imports 5.26. SOUTH KOREA ice cream imports 5.27. SPAIN ice cream imports 5.28. SWEDEN ice cream imports 5.29. SWITZERLAND ice cream imports 5.30. TAIWAN ice cream imports 5.31. THAILAND ice cream imports 5.32. UNITED KINGDOM ice cream imports 5.33. UNITED STATES ice cream imports 5.34. VENEZUELA ice cream imports 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108

5. Import trade volume, value & trend analysis. 75

Table of Contents (cont.):


6. Ice cream consumption.. 109
6.1. Global analysis 6.2. AUSTRALIA ice cream consumption 6.3. CANADA ice cream consumption 6.4. CHINA ice cream consumption 6.5. FRANCE ice cream consumption 6.6. GERMANY ice cream consumption 6.7. ITALY ice cream consumption 6.8. JAPAN ice cream consumption 6.9. MEXICO ice cream consumption 6.10. RUSSIA ice cream consumption 6.11. SOUTH KOREA ice cream consumption 6.12. UNITED KINGDOM ice cream consumption 6.13. UNITED STATES ice cream consumption 7.1. Global demand forecasts 7.2. International trade 7.3. CHINA 7.4. Health positionings 7.5. Indulgent positioning 7.6. Local flavors 7.7. Other Innovations 7.8. Concluding comments 109 112 115 118 122 125 128 131 136 139 143 146 150 153 154 157 158 161 163 164 166

7. Conclusions & strategic analysis 153

Attachment 1: Statistical data import trends by country... 167 Attachment 2: Ice cream export trends statistical data sheet.. 181

Global ice cream industry strategic market, international trade & production review
Report # 1 in Dairymark.coms Strategic global industry review series of publications

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