Disaster Risks Assessment of the ASEAN Countries

Adapted from the presentation made by RMSI

Agenda
Scope of the study S f th t d Background Country Profile (an example) Key Study Findings
Disasters Vulnerability
Social Vulnerability Economic Vulnerability Urban Vulnerability

Climate change impact

Limitations of the study Way Forward and recomendations

Scope of study
Part of the memorandum of cooperation (MoC) between ASEAN Secretariat, World Bank and UNISDR under the AADMER Based on desk review of existing data, studies, maps, analyses and assessments Review of existing hazard vulnerability and economic data at country and regional level eg o a e e Main data sources consulted are: CRED EM-DAT, ADRC, NGI, GSHAP, MRC, WAMIS, Munich Re, World Bank, GAR, InTerragate, IFNet, CCFSC, DesInventar and country reports y p

Study Area: ASEAN

Country Risk Profiles: Criteria

Assessment conducted - hazard-specific and country-level perspectives Reported disaster data for various hazards- used for risk assessment Physical and social settings of each country - provided in brief Country-level Socio-economic Indicators Sources: World Fact Book (CIA, 2010; http://www.cia.gov); the World Bank (2010; http://web.worldbank.org); Asian Development Bank (ADB 2010; http://www adb org); UNDP (http://esa un org/unup/; (ADB, http://www.adb.org); (http://esa.un.org/unup/; http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/); and IMF (http://www.imf.org) Criteria for a disaster event (EM-DAT) 10 or more people reported killed 100 people reported affected Declaration of a state emergency Call for international assistance

Country Overview : Indonesia (as an Example)..

y ( ) Country-level Information (2009) Geographic Area (km2) Population Population density Population growth (annual %) Urban population (% of total) Poverty headcount ratio, USD 2 a day (PPP) (% of population) GDP (current USD) ( ( ) (billion) ) GDP growth (annual %) GNI per capita, PPP.(USD)
Forest Fire 3% Volcano V l 10% Landslide 12% Flood 36%

2,724,900 15,480,000 6 1.1 56 (2006) 13.8

103.84 8.5 9,700 7 44 49 0.807 (2006)

Agricultural GDP (%) Industry GDP (%) Service GDP (%) Human Development Index (HDI)

Earthquake 24%

Drought 2% Storm 3%

Disaster Risk Statistics (1970-2009) Total Deaths/ Relative Disaster type No. of disasters di t no. of f year vulnerability l bilit /year deaths (deaths/ year/ million)
Flood Drought Storm Epidemic Tsunami Earthquake Landslide Volcano Wildfire 3.20 0.20 0.23 0.83 0.08 2.10 1.03 0.93 0.23 5,420 1,329 1,692 3,886 83,525 97,166 1,845 661 300 135.50 33.23 42.30 97.15 2088.13 2429.15 46.13 16.53 7.50 0.56 0.14 0.18 0.40 8.69 10.11 0.19 0.07 0.03

Tsunami 1%

Epidemic 9%

Percentage distribution of reported disasters in Indonesia

Country Profile: Indonesia

Drought D ht 15.7 Tsunami 113.0 Flood 83.5 Landslide 3.6 Volcano 20.6

Amongst th ASEAN I d A t the ASEAN, Indonesia i one of th most i is f the t vulnerable countries to natural hazards September 1997 Forest fire of Sumatra Island killed p p , , p p 240 people, affected 32,070 people and caused an estimated loss of $8.0 billion The December 26, 2004 earthquake (magnitude 9.1) and tsunami events killed 165,708 people, affected more th 0 5 million people and caused an ff t d than 0.5 illi l d d economic loss of $4.45 billion Earthquakes and tsunamis (combined) caused ( , ) y maximum deaths (180,691) followed by floods (5,420), landslides (1,845). It also caused the highest economic loss ($9.412 billion) in last 40 years Floods had the highest frequency (3.20), followed by earthquakes (2 10) l d lid b th k (2.10), landslides (1 03) and (1.03) d volcanoes (0.93) The relative vulnerability was highest for q ( ), y ( ) earthquakes (10.11), followed by tsunamis (8.69) and floods (0.56)

Earthquake 249.9

Forest Fire 440.1

Average annual economic loss ($ million) of Indonesia

Economic Loss Potential Annual exceedance Economic loss probability ($ million)

Percentage to GDP (2009)

0.5% 5.0% 20.0%

10,639.52 3,623.14 1,314.69

1.10 0.37 0.14

Country Profile: Indonesia(Contd.)

Number of deaths
120000

Events
140

Affected Population
10000000 1000000

Events
140

Economic Loss

Events
140

N Number of events

Num mber of deaths

Affected population p

80000 60000 40000 20000 0

100 80 60 40 20 0

100000 10000 1000 100

10 1

100 80 60 40
20 0

100 80 60 40 20 0

Disaster events and number of deaths (by hazard type)

Disaster events and affected population Di t t d ff t d l ti (by hazard type)

Disaster events and economic loss Di t t d i l (hazard type)

Number of Deaths

Events

A Affected population (in thousands)

1000000 100000

90 80

8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

Affected Population

Events

12,000

90 80

Economic Loss

Events

90 80 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 70

Number of events

Number of events

Number of deaths

10000 1000 100 10 1

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0

Disaster events and number of deaths (by 5 years- period)

Disaster events and affected population (by 5 years- period)

Disaster events and economic loss (5- year period)

Number of events s

70

Ec conomic loss in million (US SD)

10,000

Num mber of events

Num mber of events

100000

120

120

Economic lo in million (USD) oss

10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

120

Key study findings ASEAN - hi t history of d f devastating di t ti disasters with h t ith huge socio-economic l i i losses Almost all types of natural hazards are present, including:
Cyclones (tropical strong), floods, landslides, eqs., tsunamis, droughts, forest-fires

Cyclonic storm most dominant disaster followed by Eqs tsunamis floods stormdisaster, Eqs, tsunamis, floods, epidemics, landslides, droughts, volcanic eruptions and forest-fires During (1970-2009), 1,211 reported disasters have caused 414,927 deaths
Country Earthqua ke Landslid e Drought Flood Hazards Storm (typhoon / cyclones Tsunami
XXX X X X X X XX

Volcano

Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Th il d Vietnam ASEAN

X X XXX X X XX XXX X X X XX

X XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XXX XX XXX XXX XXX

X X XXX XX XX XX XXX

X XX XX XX X XX XX

X X XX XX X XXX XXX X XX XXX X

XX XX XX

XX XX XX

XX XXX XXX XX

Disaster Matrix by Country, ASEAN

Forest Fire
X X XX X XX X X X X XX

Key study findings(Cont.)

Reported di R t d disasters: 36% - fl d 32% - cyclonic storms, 9% -earthquakes, 7% t floods, l i t th k Landslides Quantitative risk assessment performed confirms the following risk patterns:
Country Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia M l i Myanmar Philippines Thailand Vietnam Risk Patterns Floods represent the dominant risk followed by drought Forest (wild) fires, earthquakes and tsunamis represent the dominant risk followed fires by floods, volcanoes, droughts, and; landslides Cyclonic storms, floods and drought are the dominant risks flood d f fl d and forest fires are the dominant risk t fi th d i t i k Cyclonic storms are the dominant risk followed by tsunamis, floods and forestfires Typhoons (cyclonic storms) are the dominant risk followed by floods, earthquakes floods earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, and droughts Floods are the dominant risk followed by tsunamis, and storms Storms are the dominant risk followed by floods, and droughts

Brunei and No disaster data is available Singapore

Key Study Findings - Social Vulnerability (SV)

Relative SV ranking estimated based on Av number of people killed/year/million rankingAv. Period 1970-2009: Myanmar (highest) relative SV, more than 3.5 times that of Indonesia (the second highest) SV ranking: Myanmar (highest) followed by Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Malaysia
Combined Disaster Risk from Natural hazards Killed per year (Killed per year) per million

Country

Population (Millions) 0.38 0 38 14.49 240.27 6.83 25.71 48.137 97.97 4.65 65.99 88.57 593.05

Total Killed (1970-2009)

Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam ASEAN

2,063 195,824 1,155 1,300 139,317 46,761 12,215 16,292 , 414,927

52 4,896 29 33 3,483 1,169 305 407 10,373

3.56 20.38 4.22 1.26 72.35 11.93 4.63 4.60 17.49

Comparative analysis of social vulnerability for ASEAN

Key Findings Economic Vulnerability (EV)

Economic vulnerability (EV): measured in terms of likelihood of the economic losses resulting from the various disasters (in terms of relative SV ranking) EV ranking of each country: estimated in terms of likely economic losses that an event with a 200-year return period (0.5% AEP) would impact as a % of country GDP Myanmar (highest) EV ranking followed by Lao PDR, Indonesia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia Due to paucity of economic loss disaster data, the EV analysis could not be carried out for g p Brunei and Singapore
Percent of GDP
Myanmar Laos Indonesia Cambodia Vietnam Philippines Thailand ASEAN Malaysia 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Thailand Th il d Myanmar Philippines Vietnam Malaysia Laos Cambodia 5,000 10,000 15,000 Indonesia

USD Million
ASEAN

Economic Loss Potential for annual probability of exceedance of 0.5 per cent

Key Findings Urban Vulnerability

In terms of earthquake risk Manila is at highest risk followed by Jakarta Yangon Bangkok and risk, Jakarta, Yangon, Bangkok, Ho chi minh Taking into account the cities hazard zonation and populations, earthquakes represent a substantially greater risk than floods and landslides In terms of flood risk, Manila is also at highest risk followed by Jakarta, Bangkok, Ho chi minh, and HaNoi In terms of Overall risks from these hazards, Manila is at highest risk, followed by Jakarta, Yangon, Ho chi minh, Bangkok, HaNoi, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Naypyidaw, Phnom Penh, Vientiane, and Bandar Seri Begawan
Population growth trend in major cities
16 15 1 14 13 12 Phnom Penh Jakarta Vientiane Kuala Lumpur Nay Pyi Taw y y Manila Singapore Bangkok Ha noi

Population in millions

Population trend in ASEAN major cities (1950 - 2030)

11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Hazard Risk Management Framework Status of ASEAN

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Limitations of the study

Not rigorous as probabilistic risk assessment Dependent on availability of historical loss data p y Damage estimates of large catastrophic events tends to be over estimated And for small and medium scale events underestimated Not intended for designing catastrophe insurance schemes Accuracy and completeness of historical data (e.g. historical data on earthquakes and tsunamis are limited to 40 years where as 100 years years, data is desirable for such analysis)

Way Forward
Addition Analyses: Three levels to further refine the results Should emphasize more on Floods, Typhoons, and Earthquakes and Tsunamis - most damaging quick-onset disasters Level 1: An analysis similar to this one based only on historical records should be repeated at a higher level of resolution Level 2: Using the same methodology, worst-case scenarios should be g gy considered for highly populated cities Level 3: Fully probabilistic analysis containing all elements of standard risk analysis should be performed for the hazards and regions identified as high risk in levels 1 and 2

Way Forward
Drought hazard should be addressed in the context of climate change and long-term adaptation strategies should be considered Climate risk assessment study should merge traditional risk assessments with climate change assessments Use of Open Source Risk Models are recommended

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