IE 265 Engineering Statistics I Study Set 1

1. A charity club has five members who have different birth years. A committee consisting of 3 people will be formed. The person who is older than the other two will be the leader of the committee. a. What is the probability that the oldest person of the club will be the leader? b. What is the probability that the 2nd oldest person of the club will be the leader? c. Assume that the club has members and a committee of people will be formed. What is the probability that nth oldest person will be the leader? 2. A president, a treasurer and secretary, all different, are to be chosen from a club consisting of 10 people: A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J. How many different choices of officers are possible if: There are no restrictions A and B will not serve together C and D will serve together or not at all E must be an officer F will only serve if she is the president

a. b. c. d. e.

3. How many ways can four married couples sit on a park bench if; a. Every husband and wife must sit together? b. The men and women must alternate?

4. How many square regions are there on a chessboard? What about on an n*n chessboard? What
about on an m*n chessboard?

5. How many ways are there to arrange the letters in COMPANIES; a. With vowels in alphabetical order? b. With vowels together? c. With no consecutive vowels?
6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K. In how many ways can 5 cards be chosen, so that they contain; Five cards of successive kinds from the same suit? Four cards of the same kind? Three cards of one kind and two cards of another kind? Five cards of the same suit? Five cards of successive kinds? Three of the five cards of the same kind? No more than two cards of the same suit?

6. In a standard poker deck, there are 4 suits including ,,,, and 13 kinds including A, 2, 3, 4, 5,

a. b. c. d. e. f. g.

7. An industrial engineer is about to take on two projects, say A and B. He knows that project A will end with success with probability 0.70. If he also knows that project B will end with success with probability 0.60 and the probability of both projects ending in success is 0.50, a. What is the probability that at least one of the projects will end in success? b. What is the probability that only project A will end in success? c. What is the probability that project B will not end in success? d. What is the probability that exactly one project will end in success? e. What is the probability that none of the projects will end in success?

8.

A gambler has in his pocket a fair coin and a two-headed coin. He selects one of the coins at random; when he flips it, it shows heads. a. What is the probability that it is the fair coin? b. Suppose that he flips the same coin second time and again it shows heads. What is now the probability that it is the fair coin? c. Suppose that he flips the same coin a third time and it shows tails. What is now the probability that it is the fair coin?

9. An urn contains 9 blue and 6 red balls. a. Five balls are removed without replacement. What is the probability that three of the balls are blue and the other two are red? b. Five balls are removed with replacement. What is the probability that three of the balls are blue and the other two are red? c. Five balls are removed from the urn and discarded. Then a sixth ball is drawn. What is the probability that the sixth ball is red?

10. Die H has 4 red and 2 white faces, whereas die T has 2 red and 4 white faces. A fair coin is flipped
once. If it lands on heads, the game continues with die H; if it lands on tails then die T is to be used. a. Show that the probability of red at any throws is 1/2. b. If the first two throws result in red, what is the probability of red at the third throw? c. If red turns up at the first two throws, what is the probability that it is die H that is being used? 11. A new antivirus software is being developed, which detects a virus with probability 0.90 when it enters the computer. In addition, when the computer is not infected, the software has a probability of 0.99 of indicating that the computer is clean (that is, the software cannot detect a virus when it enters with probability 0.10 and when the computer is not infected, the probability of a false alarm is 0.01). If it is known that a computer has a probability 0.05 of getting infected by a virus, what is the probability that a computer is not infected when the software indicates infection?

12. According to simplified model for weather forecasting, suppose the weather (either wet or dry)
tomorrow will be the weather today with probability p (with probability (1-p) the weather will be different). If the weather is dry on November 1st and wet on November 4th, what is the probability that it is wet on November 2nd. 13. A cab was involved in a hit-and-run accident. Two cab companies serve the city: the Green, which operates 85% of the cabs, and the Blue, which operates the remaining 15%. A witness identifies the hit-and-run cab as Blue. When the court tests the reliability of the witness under circumstances similar to those on the night of the accident, he correctly identifies the color of a cab 80% of the time and misidentifies it the other 20%. What is the probability that the cab involved in the accident was Blue, as the witness claimed? 14. Every Saturday, Jones and Smith play either golf or tennis. Jones beats Smith at golf 80% of the time, whereas he beats Smith at tennis only 40% of the time. Each Saturday, they look for a tennis court; if they find an available court (which happens 30% of the time), then they play tennis; otherwise they play golf. Suppose that last Saturday, Jones won. What is the probability that they played tennis? 15. A machine produces 15 items, 12 of which is non-defective. The items are randomly selected without replacement. The sixth selected item is found to be non-defective. What is the probability that this is the third non-defective one?