Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA.

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http://www.valuengine.com/pub/Unsubscribe? Oct 21, 2011 Weekly Closes above the Five-week MMAS are Positive. The daily charts for the major equity averages remain overbought, and we need weekly closes above the five-week modified moving averages to keep the weekly charts positive: 11,301 Dow Industrials, 1184.6 SPX, 2542 NASDAQ, 2236 NDX, 4515 Dow Transports, 690.28 Russell 2000 and 362.43 SOX. We could have weekly closes straddling these levels which would be overall neutral. A weekly closes above 2.140 for the 10-Year US Treasury favors higher yields. Gold stays negative on its weekly chart with a close below $1700.4. Crude oil will likely have rising weekly MOJO with the key level being the 200-week SMA at $83.54. The euro versus the dollar will also show rising weekly MOJO with its 200-week at 1.3991. Fundamentally stocks remain cheap with more than 80% of all stocks undervalued. My call remains that the October 4th lows are the lows for the year, but we will not see higher highs in 2011. 10-Year Note (2.159) Daily, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 2.301, 2.414, 2.669 and 2.690 with my monthly pivot at 2.222, and weekly, and semiannual risky levels at 2.033 and 1.672, which was tested on September 23rd. The 50-day SMA is 2.060.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold ($1622.3) Semiannual and annual value levels are $1469.9 and $1,356.5 with weekly, daily and semiannual pivots at $1625.8, $1638.3 and $1644.8, and quarterly and monthly risky levels at $1738.4 and $1811.4, and the September 6th all time high at $1923.7. The 200-day is $1546.0 with the 50-day at $1745.1.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil ($86.31) The October 4th year-to-date low is $74.95 with my weekly pivot at $87.14, the 200-week at $83.54, the 50-day at $85.17, a daily pivot at $86.58, and monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at $98.51, $100.34, $99.91 and $101.92.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro (1.3778) Weekly, and quarterly value levels are 1.3202 and 1.2598 with daily, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.3888, 1.4579, 1.4752 and 1.4872. The 50-day, 200-day and 200-week SMAs are 1.3890, 1.4084 and 1.3991.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Daily Dow - (11,542) The October 4th YTD low is 10,404.49 with annual, daily and weekly pivots at 11,491, 11,594 and 11,650, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 12,091 and 12,507 with the YTD high at 12,876.00. Semiannual value levels are 9,635 and 8,468. The 50-day is 11,235 with the 200day at 11,965.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

S&P 500 (1215.4) The October 4th YTD low is 1074.77 with semiannual value levels at 981.3 and 855.7, the 50-day at 1177.0, my annual pivot at 1210.7, daily and weekly risky levels at 1226.9 and 1230.6, and monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 1259.8, 1303.7 and 1562.9. The YTD high is 1370.58. NASDAQ (2599) The October 4th YTD low is 2298.89 with my annual value level at 2335, semiannual value levels at 2199 and 2049, the 50-day at 2518, daily, monthly, weekly, and quarterly risky levels at 2667, 2680, 2717, and 2807, and the YTD high at 2887.75. My annual risky level is 3243. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2306) The YTD low is 2034.92 with semiannual and annual value levels at 1951, 1861 and 1723, the 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 2215 and 2294, my monthly pivot at 2312, daily, weekly, and quarterly risky levels at 2372, 2427, and 2440, the YTD high at 2437.42 and annual risky level at 2590. Dow Transports (4710) The October 4th YTD low is 3950.66 with semiannual value levels at 4335 and 3868, the 50-day at 4462, my weekly pivot at 4687, and daily, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 4755, 4980, 5179 and 5359, and the YTD high at 5627.85. Russell 2000 (696.42) The October 4th YTD low is 601.71 with semiannual value levels at 577.47 and 530.04, the 50-day at 684.58, my weekly pivot at 713.00, and daily, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 711.94, 778.77, 784.16 and 802.96, and the YTD high at 868.57. The SOX (363.88) The October 4th YTD low is 322.24 with annual and semiannual value levels at 270.98, 258.97 and 204.67, the 50-day at 356.66, my monthly pivot at 363.01, and daily, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 375.26, 392.52 and 417.63, and the YTD high at 450.79. Equity Fundamentals Stocks are extremely undervalued. 82.1% of all stocks are undervalued / 17.9% of all stocks are overvalued. In March 2009 we saw 91.1% of all stocks undervalued. All sixteen sectors are undervalued, fifteen by double-digit percentages, eight by 20.1% to 25.2%, as the 30-Year bond yield starts to rise putting a drag on valuations. Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. Check out and subscribe to www.ValuEngine.com. VE Morning Briefing If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a Fearless Prediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D ValuTrader Model Portfolio If you want to learn how to Buy and Trade use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=V ETF Weekly If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds use this link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=C

Definition of MOJO This is my term for technical momentum. I use whats called 12x3x3 slow stochastic readings from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0 is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold. Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions Value Level The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level. Risky Level The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level. Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions Value Level The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level. Risky Level The price at which you establish an addition short position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level. Richard Suttmeier Chief Market Strategist ValuEngine.com (800) 381-5576 To unsubscribe from this free email newsletter list, please click http://www.valuengine.com/pub/Unsubscribe? Send your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our products and services visit www.ValuEngine.com
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.