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ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price `404 `452
12 Months
Angel est. 1,091 195 17.9 143 % Diff 8.7 7.1 (26bp) 3.4
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
FMCG 13,069 0.2 463 / 325 33,298 1 16,786 5,050 GOCP.BO GCPL@IN
Godrej Consumer (GCPL) posted a modest set of numbers for the quarter, largely in-line with our estimates. Consolidated top-line growth was strong at 24.5% yoy. The domestic business grew by healthy 24% yoy, led by all three categories, household insecticides, soaps and hair colors. On the international business front, Indonesia and Latam grew strongly. We maintain Accumulate on the stock. Key highlights of the quarter: Consolidated top line grew by 24.5% yoy with domestic sales and international business posting healthy growth of 24% and 19% yoy, respectively. Soaps, household insecticides and hair colors performed well for the company. On the operating front, the company reported a marginal decline in its margins (down 23bp yoy) and came in at 17.6%. Recurring PAT grew by 13.3% yoy; whereas on a reported earnings basis, the company posted a decline of 2.5% yoy in earnings and stood at `128cr (`131cr). The quarter saw robust growth in its hair colors and household insecticides categories, growing by more than double the category growth rates (32% yoy and 29% yoy), respectively. Outlook and valuation: During the quarter, GCPL completed the acquisition of a 51% stake in Darling Group in South Africa and Nigeria. We have revised our estimates, as we factor in Darling Groups acquisition in our numbers. GCPLs recent acquisitions have been in-line with its 3X3 strategy and enable the company to spread its footprint and grow inorganically. At the CMP of `404, the stock is trading at 18.8x FY2013E earnings of `21.5. We maintain an Accumulate rating on the stock with a revised target price of `452 (`457), based on 21x FY2013E EPS. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net Sales % chg Net Profit (Adj.) % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 67.3 5.5 19.7 7.5
3m (9.0) (8.9)
FY2010 2,041 46.5 339.6 96.7 20.0 10.5 38.5 13.0 44.5 41.5 6.3 31.4
FY2011 3,643 78.5 481.6 41.8 17.6 14.9 27.1 7.6 38.4 25.0 4.1 23.2
FY2012E 4,470 22.7 534.8 11.0 17.5 16.5 24.4 6.1 36.6 18.9 3.2 18.4
FY2013E 5,503 23.1 696.3 30.2 18.1 21.5 18.8 5.1 29.4 22.8 2.6 14.3
Sreekanth P.V.S
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6841
sreekanth.s@angelbroking.com
(` cr)
(` cr)
( %)
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Top-line (LHS)
Revenue of the international business stood at `419cr (`337cr), registering growth of 24% yoy, aided by impressive performance from Indonesia and Latam. International operations now contribute ~36% revenue to the companys consolidated top line.
(` cr)
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2Q10
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4Q10
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2Q12
(%)
150.0
(%)
180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 (20.0)
(` cr)
PAT (LHS)
On the operating front, GCPL reported a marginal decline in its operating margin (down by 23bp yoy) and came in at 17.6% for the quarter. Despite higher other expenditure (up by 319bp yoy), the company managed to curtail the slippage in operating margin by reducing the staff cost (down by 153bp yoy) and by reducing ad spends (down by 92bp yoy).
(` cr)
(%)
20.0 10.0 -
50 30 10
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OPM
Gross Margin
2Q12
(%)
19.4 19.6
70
( %)
50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 (%)
160 110 60 10
2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12
70 50 30 10
Africa: Sales from the African region registered growth of 47.7% yoy. Numbers of the current quarter include numbers from Darling Group. Operating profit for the quarter stood at `17cr. LatAm: LatAm business includes sales of both Issue Group and Argencos. During the quarter, GCPL recorded revenue of `66cr. The company launched Diamond black hair color cream kits and Roby Glam & Gloss hair serum. Also, 919 and Issue Professional Color Natural Shine were relaunched.
Investment rationale
Acquisitions to drive a 16% CAGR in earnings over FY201113E and add to EPS: Management has constantly reiterated that all recent international acquisitions have been EPS-accretive. Over FY201113E, we expect GCPL to post a 16% CAGR in earnings, driven largely by consolidation of the recent acquisitions. Dependence on soaps to decline, home care to emerge as the largest category: Over FY2011-13E, we expect contribution of personal wash (including soaps) to total consolidated revenue at 24-25% and home care to increase to 50-51%. We believe the shift in revenue mix is likely to help GCPL de-risk its dependence on the highly competitive soaps market and increase its focus on the high-margin, high-growth insecticides business. Synergistic benefits and cross-pollination opportunities: We believe there are significant synergistic benefits in terms of distribution and supply-chain networks through integration of GHPL, which is likely to reflect over FY2011-13E. Moreover, GHPLs strong presence in Southern India complements GCPLs strong presence in Northern India extremely well, giving GCPL a balanced presence.
% chg FY2012E
6.5 (200) (8.6)
FY2013E
4,681 19.9 20.8
FY2013E
5,503 18.1 21.5
FY2013E
17.5 (180) 3.5
At the CMP of `404, the stock is trading at 18.8x FY2013E earnings of `21.5. We maintain an Accumulate rating on the stock with a revised target price of `452 (`457), based on 21x FY2013E EPS.
Reco
Neutral Accumulate Neutral Buy Neutral Accumulate Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral
Mcap (` cr)
28,922 5,297 13,477 17,860 9,926 13,069 71,145 157,586 9,339 41,464
CMP (`)
3,015 443 991 103 2,360 404 326 204 152 4,300
TP (R`)
495 115 457 -
Upside (%)
12 12 13 -
CAGR # Sales
17.3 17.3 14.9 20.5 17.3 22.9 12.7 17.6 15.7 16.1
FY13E
23.9 19.7 26.2 22.2 24.0 18.8 24.5 22.9 24.1 35.8
FY13E
2.6 0.9 4.4 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.7 5.1 2.4 4.9
FY13E
38.3 46.0 108.0 41.6 31.8 29.4 85.3 31.5 28.6 72.9
EPS
19.8 36.0 12.9 18.8 17.5 20.2 17.1 17.4 27.6 18.9
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10
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Returns (%) RoCE Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC (ex-cash) (days) 5.3 63.4 16.9 96.2 (4) 4.9 43.9 15.8 76.5 6 5.7 47.3 20.6 95.2 9 5.5 44.0 38.5 84.6 41 5.2 48.7 22.1 95.3 3 5.3 48.7 21.9 93.1 5 58.5 171.4 108.5 30.8 109.0 46.6 41.5 166.7 44.5 25.0 122.1 38.4 18.9 117.6 36.6 22.8 155.2 29.4 7.1 4.9 7.9 4.1 7.6 6.7 5.3 7.5 4.0 22.2 11.0 10.5 11.8 4.1 31.0 14.9 14.9 16.4 5.0 53.3 16.5 16.5 18.4 6.0 66.5 21.5 21.5 23.8 7.0 79.8 82.1 51.4 53.2 1.0 12.0 61.6 35.9 75.7 54.1 18.2 1.0 9.3 62.6 15.2 38.5 34.3 13.0 1.0 6.3 31.4 12.8 27.1 24.6 7.6 1.2 4.1 23.2 4.0 24.4 21.9 6.1 1.5 3.2 18.4 3.7 18.8 16.9 5.1 1.7 2.6 14.3 3.4 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2012E
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
GCPL No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
12