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The Global Rail Market Now to 2016

UNIFE Study Key Findings & Future Outlook


UNIFE press conference at Innotrans Berlin, September 24, 2008

We have updated our first rail market study (2006)


Rationale behind the update of the rail market study After successful reception and feedback to the first study, UNIFE decided to update and enlarge the scope of the study The country scope was extended from 41 to 50 countries (>95% of the market) Trends and their impact on the industry were investigated in more depth The forecast now includes a bottom-up validation to incorporate short-term project demand into the model Overall methodology and the approach for long-term forecasting have remained unchanged as they have proven to deliver very good and stable results
2

Total rail supply market volume exceeds EUR 120 bn


Key data Worldwide Rail Market Study

TOTAL MARKET
1231) 10
22

ACCESSIBLE MARKET2)

Average market volumes 05-07 Growth p.a. Average market volumes 05-07 Growth p.a. Rail control Infrastructure Rolling stock 2.0-2.5% 3.0-3.5% 2.5-3.0%
Rail control

861) 10
17

2 5-3 0% 2.5 3.0% 3.0-3.5%


2.5-3.0% 2.0-2.5%

37

2.0-2.5%

Infrastructure Rolling stock

31

Services

53

2.0-2.5%
Services 27 3.5-4.0%

1) Figures are including market volume for project integration, Growth rates are 9-year average growth rates 2) ACCESSIBLE MARKET: Part of the market open to any external supplier 3

Expected growth per product category ranges from 2% to 4%


Annual growth rates accessible market volume 2007-2016 [% p.a.]

Infrastructure
Above average growth foreseen for electrification in the mainline segment

Rolling Stock
High growth expected for (V)HS trains, intercity multiple units and light rail vehicles slight decline in demand for coaches 2.0% 2.5%

Rail control
Significant growth foreseen for ETCS (within and outside of Europe) and CBTC systems

Services
Solid, global development and increasing accessibility expected, also due to increasing rolling stock base 3.5% 4.0%

2.5% 3.0%

3.0 3.5%

35% of the rail market volume originates from Western Europe


Accessible market volume rail market [EUR m] average 05-071)
REGIONS [%] Other
20

Infrastructure

Rolling stock

Rail control

Services

Western Europe 35
24

Western Europe Eastern Europe CIS

6,307 0,986
0,639 0 639 5,702 0,238 2,652 0,570 17,094

10,718 1,615
2,500 2 500 5,260 0,787 8,335 2,090 31,305

4,641 0,587
0,421 0 421 1,098 0,187 2,217 0,502 9,653

7,651 1,709
2,004 2 004 8,739 1,508 4,976 0,349 26,936

29,317 4,897
5,564 5 564 20,799 2,720 18,180 3,511 84,988

Asia/ 21 Pacific

NAFTA
Rail Control
11 Infrastructure 20

NAFTA Rest of America Asia/Pacific Africa/ Middle East

Rolling 37 Stock

Services

32

SEGMENTS [%]

1) Excluding market volume for project integration 5

Common market segmentation is the basis for further proceeding


Overall study methodology ANALYSIS of market volumes and installed base in status quo MARKET SEGMENTATION 50 countries i in 7 regions 5 transport segments >30 product segments
Research of installed base Analysis of studies and UNIFE member data Verification and comprising of data and elimination of inconsistencies Analysis of major industry trends

DEVELOPMENT of market model and FORECAST of market volumes


Review and selection of model drivers Determination of factors and formulation of forecasting equations Model calibration to calculate market volumes Project-based bottom-up validation
6

The accessible rail market is expected to grow around 2.9%


Growth rates accessible market product categories 2007-2016 [% p.a.]
NAFTA Western Europe Eastern Europe CIS

All: 1.9
1.6 2.2 2.8

All: 2.1
2.6 2.8 3.5

All: 4.1
6.7 2.2 3.3 2.4

All: 4.5
5.8 4.4 1.7 4.6

0.5

0.3

Infra RS

RC

Serv

Infra RS

RC

Serv

Infra RS

RC

Serv

Infra

RS

RC

Serv

Rest of America

Africa/Middle East

Asia/Pacific

World

All: 6.0
5.0 5.9 3.5 6.6

All: 2.7
6.2 -0.1 5.7 4.9

All: 3.8
5.6 3.3 3.3 3.7

All: 2.9
2.8 2.2 3.1 3.6

Infra RS

RC

Serv

Infra RS

RC

Serv

Infra RS

RC

Serv

Infra

RS

RC

Serv

Infra Infrastructure RC Rail Control

RS Rolling Stock Serv Services 7

Example: In Asia/Pacific the strong growth is expected to continue


Annual growth rates accessible market volume 2007-2016 [% p.a.] Asia/Pacific
All: 3.8

Asian very high speed countries are China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan growth mainly originates from first three
10.5 3.5 Mainline Light rail

5.7

2.8 Metro

Very high speed

Above average growth within the mainline segment stems from Superstructure and electrification High speed and intercity trainsets Electric locomotives The urban sector will continue its strong development due to the lasting need of urban transport
8

Overall trends favor the industry's development


Selection of relevant major trends Ecological awareness & energy consumption results in additional favour rail as an environand lasting demand for mentally friendly public rail transport, esp. transport mode in emerging megacities and metropolitan areas d t lit ERTMS opens European markets and creates Shortage of engiadditional demand from neering capacity implementation outside may become the of Europe bottleneck for growth
Indicates impact on the industry 9

Urbanisation

Leasing & Financing facilitates operators' demand and generates additional demand through internationalisation of ti li ti f leasing companies Deregulation and liberalisation higher competition for rail operation increases demand for new rolling stock

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