CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Tuesday, October 25, 2011 7:00 am (ET) The Race

for the Republican Nomination October 19-24, 2011 Herman Cain and Mitt Romney continue to the lead the pack of Republican candidates for the partys nomination, with the edge going to Cain in this poll. These two candidates were tied for the lead earlier this month. Interviews for this poll were conducted after last Tuesdays debate. Rick Perry - who led the field a month ago - has now slipped to fifth place, just behind Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul. Only 6% of Republican primary voters would like to see Perry as the Republican nominee just a quarter of the support he received in September. Cain, however, has vaulted to the top. A month ago, only 5% of Republican primary voters supported him; that number has risen to 25% today. Romneys support has risen 5 points since September. 2012 Republican Nomination for President (among Republican primary voters) Now 10/3/2011 Herman Cain 25% 17% Mitt Romney 21 17 Newt Gingrich 10 8 Ron Paul 8 7 Rick Perry 6 12 Michele Bachmann 2 4 Rick Santorum 1 3 Jon Huntsman 1 2 Undecided/Dont know 14 18

9/16/2011 5% 16 7 5 23 7 1 1 22

Cains rise is largely due to Tea Party supporters within the Republican primary electorate. 32% of that group backs him now, more than four times the number that supported him in September. Romneys support among Tea Partiers is similar to what it was earlier this month, and up 6 points from September, while Perrys support has declined. Just 7% of Tea party supporters back Perry now, compared to 30% in September. Cain leads among self-identified conservatives, while he and Romney are virtually tied among moderates. Tea Party Supporters: 2012 Republican Nomination for President (among Republican primary voters who support the Tea Party) Now 10/3/2011 9/16/2011 Herman Cain 32% 24% 7% Mitt Romney 18 17 12 Newt Gingrich 15 13 8 Ron Paul 9 2 6 Rick Perry 7 12 30 Michele Bachmann 2 4 8 Jon Huntsman 1 1 0 Rick Santorum 1 1 1 Undecided/Dont know 8 16 18

However, the race remains fluid: Just 19% of Republican primary voters with a candidate choice say their minds are made up, while 80% say its too early to say for sure who they support for the nomination. This is similar to the state of the race in late 2007. Mind Made Up Whom to Support? (among Republican Primary Voters with a Choice) Now 10/3/2011 12/2007 Yes 19% 19% 23% Too early 80 76 76 They may want President Obama to be a one-term president but Republican primary voters have yet to find an alternative that a majority enthusiastically supports. At this early stage in the campaign, Republican primary voters are not especially enthusiastic about Herman Cain, Mitt Romney or Rick Perry as potential nominees for president, but there is more enthusiasm for Cain than for Romney and Perry. 32% of Republican primary voters say they would enthusiastically back Cain if he became the partys nominee, while 30% would have reservations about him. 13% would support Cain only because he was the Republican partys nominee, while a similar percentage would not support him at all. Fewer Republican voters would enthusiastically support Romney (18%) or Perry (14%), far more say they would have reservations about each of them. One in five Republican primary voters says they would support Romney or Perry only because they were the partys nominee. 14% would not support Romney if he were the nominee, while 19% say that about Perry. If . Were the Republican Nominee Would you ? (among Republican primary voters) Cain Romney Enthusiastically support him 32% 18% Support him with reservations 30 42 Support him only because he is the nominee 13 19 Not support him 14 14

Perry 14% 40 18 19

Americans are getting interested in the 2012 race for president. 70% of registered voters nationwide are paying at least some attention to the 2012 election campaign, including 31% who are paying a lot of attention. Majorities of both parties are tuning in, but 78% of Republicans are paying attention, compared to 68% of Democrats. Attention to the 2012 Campaign (among registered voters) All Reps Dems Inds 31% 34% 35% 24% 39 44 33 41 21 12 25 24 10 10 8 10

A lot Some Not much None

______________________________________________________________________________________________ This poll was conducted by telephone from October 19-24, 2011 among 1,650 adults nationwide. 1,475 interviews were conducted with registered voters and 455 with voters who said they plan to vote in a Republican primary. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three points and five points for the sample of Republican primary voters. The error for subgroups may be higher. An oversample was conducted for this survey which will be analyzed in a future poll release. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL The Race for the Republican Nomination October 19-24, 2011 q26 How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2012 presidential campaign -- a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 31 34 35 24 39 44 33 41 21 12 25 24 10 10 8 10 0 0 0 1

A lot Some Not much None DK/NA

Sep11b % 32 38 22 8 0

q27 Which one of these candidates would you like to see the Republican Party nominate for President in 2012 - Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, or would you like to see someone else nominated? ** REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ** 25 21 10 8 6 2 1 1 12 11 na 3 Sep11b* 17 17 8 7 12 4 2 3 10 8 2 10

Herman Cain Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Ron Paul Rick Perry Michele Bachmann Jon Huntsman Rick Santorum Someone else Undecided (Vol.) No one DK/NA

q28 Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure? * REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS WITH A CANDIDATE CHOICE * Cain Romney Total Supporters Supporters Mind made up 19 18 23 Still too early 80 82 76 DK/NA 1 0 1

Sep11b 19 76 5

q29 If Mitt Romney became the Republican nominee for President next year, would you: 1. Enthusiastically support him, or 2. Support him but with reservations, or 3. Support him ONLY because he is the Republican party nominee, or 4. Not support him? ** REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ** Enthusiastically support 18 Support with reservations 42 Support only because he is the nominee 19 Not support him 14 DK/NA 7

q30 If Herman Cain became the Republican nominee for President next year, would you: 1. Enthusiastically support him, or 2. Support him but with reservations, or 3. Support him ONLY because he is the Republican party nominee, or 4. Not support him? ** REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ** % Enthusiastically support 32 Support with reservations 30 Support only because he is the nominee 13 Not support him 14 DK/NA 11 q31 If Rick Perry became the Republican nominee for President next year, would you: 1. Enthusiastically support him, or 2. Support him but with reservations, or 3. Support him ONLY because he is the Republican party nominee, or 4. Not support him? Enthusiastically support Support with reservations Support only because he is the nominee Not support him DK/NA 14 40 18 19 9

q104 Think about past elections in which you have voted, including national and statewide elections. Would you say you always vote Republican, usually vote Republican, vote about equally for both parties, usually vote Democratic, or always vote democratic? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 8 26 1 2 19 52 1 14 27 17 13 45 20 1 38 16 17 0 45 3 7 3 2 13 2 1 0 7

Always Republican Usually Republican Equally for both Usually Democrat Always Democrat Never vote (vol.) DK/NA

q105 Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or not? Sep11b % 26 68 6

Yes No DK/NA

24 66 10

47 45 8

8 84 8

23 65 12 WEIGHTED 1329 419 (25%) 574 (35%) 657 (40%) 422

Total Respondents Total Registered Voters Total Republicans Total Democrats Total Independents Total Republican Primary Voters

UNWEIGHTED 1650 1475 399 583 668 455

Note: An oversample was conducted for this survey which will be analyzed in a future poll release.