Académique Documents
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Gordon Hughes
University of Edinburgh
Water & wastewater resources, networks, treatment & flood prevention Social infrastructure
Health & education hospitals, schools, etc Urban esp. storm water drainage
Significant variations across North Asia for different climate variables and scenarios
Apply dose-response cost models to baseline projections for a given climate scenario
How does climate affect the costs of building or maintaining infrastructure design standards? Adjust operating efficiency for physical processes Higher maintenance costs for existing assets?
When does the PV of the costs of not adapting exceed the costs of adaptation?
Variations in costs & investment timing across scenarios Construct pay-off matrix investment strategy x outcome Decision based on degree of risk aversion
None min-mean loss vs High min-max loss
Demand model
Projections for population, GDP per capita, urbanisation to 2050 used to generate baseline infrastructure projections Unit infrastructure costs & dose-response to climate change adapted from EACC using additional data for China (esp. for roads)
Port capacity
Airport capacity
Railway length
Paved roads
Electricity consumption
Generating capacity 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Indices, 2010=100
NoCC
Global Wet
Global Dry
PV of investment in adaptation
Pow er & telecoms Water & sew ers Other transport Health & schools
Roads
Urban
Housing
0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 -7.0 -8.0 2011-15 2016-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35
0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 -7.0 -8.0 2011-15 2016-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35
Timing of adaptation by region, asset type & discount rate min-mean loss
Investment period Discount rate A. Region North North East East South East South West West B. Asset type Power & telecoms Water & sewers Roads Other transport Health & schools Urban Housing Adapt NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC Adapt Adapt NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC Adapt NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC Adapt Adapt NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC Adapt NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC Adapt NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC Adapt NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC Adapt NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC 0% 2011-15 2% 5% 0% 2021-25 2% 5% 0% 2031-35 2% 5%
Timing of adaptation by region, asset type & discount rate min-max loss
Investment period Discount rate A. Region North North East East South East South West West B. Asset type Power & telecoms Water & sewers Roads Other transport Health & schools Urban Housing Adapt Adapt NoCC NoCC Adapt NoCC Adapt NoCC Adapt NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC Adapt Adapt NoCC NoCC Adapt NoCC Adapt NoCC Adapt NoCC NoCC Adapt NoCC Adapt NoCC Adapt NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC Adapt Adapt Adapt Adapt Adapt NoCC Adapt NoCC Adapt NoCC Adapt Adapt NoCC Adapt NoCC Adapt NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC Adapt Adapt NoCC Adapt NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC Adapt Adapt Adapt NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC Adapt Adapt Adapt Adapt Adapt Adapt Adapt Adapt Adapt NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC NoCC 0% 2011-15 2% 5% 0% 2021-25 2% 5% 0% 2031-35 2% 5%
Damage modelled as a power function of wind speed or flood depth above existing level of protection Cyclones: Current 1 in 50 year storm is 195 kph equivalent design standard would be 215 kph over life of structures built in 2040-50
Floods: Large differences between climate scenarios some provinces (Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian) face big increase in risks for at least one scenario. But, risks may decrease for many people Overall, uncertainty about run-off flooding is the most important & expensive aspect of climate change in China - concentrated in provinces in the E & SE regions