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Sterlite Industries
Performance Highlights
BUY
CMP Target Price
2QFY11 % chg (yoy) 6,029 1,529 25.4 1,013 68.1 62.3 (87)bp 0.9 1QFY12 % chg (qoq) 9,824 2,758 28.1 1,640 3.2 (10.0) (358)bp (37.7)
`116 `154
12 months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Base Metals 38,973 1.3 196/104 799885 1 16,939 5,098 STRL.BO STLT@IN
Sterlite Industries (Sterlite) consolidated net sales for 2QFY2012 grew by 68.1% yoy. However, subdued performance from the aluminium and energy segments dragged the companys profitability. Adjusted PAT grew by 0.9% yoy to `1,022cr. Robust 2QFY2012 sales performance: For 2QFY2012, Sterlites net sales increased by 68.1% yoy to `10,134cr, slightly above our estimate of `9,726cr. Net sales growth was driven by higher zinc sales volumes as well as higher realization of zinc, lead and copper. Revenue of the copper, zinc and power segments grew by 76.5%, 66.3% and 282.3% yoy, respectively. Aluminium and power segments dent profitability: EBIT of the copper and zinc segments grew by 95.8% and 64.5% yoy, respectively. However, EBIT of the aluminium and power segments declined by 93.9% and 6.9% yoy, respectively. Aluminium cost of production at Balco increased by 22.0% yoy to US$2,133/tonne on account of increased prices of alumina and carbon. Sterlites associate, Vedanta Aluminium (VAL) reported loss of `624cr in 2QFY2012 compared to loss of `196cr in 2QFY2011. Thus, adjusted net profit increased by 0.9% yoy to `1,022cr, significantly below our estimate of `1,641cr. Outlook and valuation: Sterlite is currently trading at 3.1x and 2.3x FY2012E and FY2013E EV/EBITDA, respectively. We expect Sterlite to benefit from the expansion of zinc-lead smelting capacity during FY2012-13. Furthermore, Sterlites expansion in the silver-rich Sidearm Khurd mine should result in robust bottom-line growth. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with an SOTP-based target price of `154.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 53.2 8.9 12.4 25.5
3m
1yr
3yr 94.7
122.3
(9.5) (16.0)
(31.3) (31.1)
FY2010 24,501 15.9 3,744 5.8 11.9 25.7 9.8 1.1 12.0 11.8 1.0 3.9
FY2011 30,248 23.5 5,043 34.7 14.3 26.0 8.1 0.9 12.9 11.5 0.9 3.5
FY2012E 36,843 21.8 4,895 (2.9) 14.6 23.0 8.0 0.8 11.2 9.6 0.7 3.1
FY2013E 43,285 17.5 6,233 27.3 18.5 25.1 6.3 0.7 12.6 11.0 0.6 2.3
Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6821 bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
2QFY12 10,134 4,821 47.6 1,057 10.4 397 3.9 1,439 14.2 7,714 76.1 61.9 2,482 24.5 356 445 597 (30) 2,248 22.2 505 22.5 1,744 998 1,022
2QFY11 6,029 2,771 46.0 574 9.5 223 3.7 988 16.4 4,555 75.6 55.4 1,529 25.4 (0) 212 578 (21) 1,874 31.1 456 24.3 1,418 1,008 1,013
1QFY12 9,824 4,526 46.1 764 7.8 385 3.9 1,428 14.5 7,102 72.3 36.7 2,758 28.1 174
%qoq 3.2 6.5 38.3 3.1 0.8 8.6 68.6 (10.0) 104.5 6.0 (29.0) (25.1) (17.7) (27.0) (39.2) (37.8)
420 842 (4) 3,002 30.6 614 20.4 2,388 1,640 1,643
Segmental performance
Copper segments EBIT increases by 95.8% yoy
During 2QFY2012, copper cathode production at the Tuticorin smelter increased by 28.0% yoy to 87,000 tonnes, while mined metal from the Australian mine declined by 28.5% yoy to 5,000 tonnes. Nevertheless, revenue for the copper segment increased by 58.1% yoy to `5,575cr due to higher metal prices. Copper TC/RCs increased by 11.0% yoy to USc13.00/lb. The company reported cost of production of USc(3.70)lb in 2QFY2012 compared to USc7.30/lb in 2QFY2011. Lower cost of production was mainly on account of higher operational efficiency and higher realization of by-products. Consequently, EBIT increased by 95.8% yoy to `309cr in 2QFY2012.
(` cr)
100 50 0
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
EBIT (LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
2QFY12
(%)
150
(`cr)
80 40 0
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
EBIT (LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
2QFY12
(%)
120
(`cr)
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
EBIT (LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Investment rationale
Zinc-lead expansion and power to aid growth: Sterlite had commissioned a 100ktpa lead smelter at Rajpura Dariba in 1QFY2012. Expansion at the silver-rich Sindesur Khurd mine is expected to result in robust sales volume growth in FY2013. Further, we believe Sterlite will benefit from increased merchant power sales from Balco. SEL to reach full production capacity in FY2013: SEL has already commissioned two units of 600MW each at Jharsuguda. SEL will synchronize the remaining two units of 600MW each at the Jharsuguda power plant during 3QFY2012 and 4QFY2012, respectively, the benefits of which will be witnessed in FY2013.
2QFY12
(%)
30
Valuation
Sterlite is currently trading at 3.1x and 2.3x FY2012E and FY2013E EV/EBITDA, respectively. We expect Sterlite to benefit from the expansion of zinc-lead smelting capacity during FY2012-13. Furthermore, Sterlites expansion in the silver-rich Sindesar Khurd mine should result in robust bottom-line growth. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with an SOTP-based target price of `154.
(` cr)
Valuation technique EV/EBIDTA EV/EBIDTA EV/EBIDTA EV/EBIDTA FCFE P/BV Target multiple (x) Equity value % Stake Sterlite's value Value/share 3.5 3.5 4.0 5.0 1.0 1.0 11,876 3,748 1,575 67,286 3,821 1,009 100% 51% 29.5% 64.9% 100% 100% 11,876 1,912 465 43,668 3,821 1,009 35 6 1 97 11 3 154
14x 11x 8x 5x 2x
Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11
(`)
Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11
3.5x
2.5x
300 200 100 0 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11
1.5x
0.5x
- Neutral 15,605
55.3 (297.0)
(1,483) (1,974)
(6,898) (5,349)
10
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio (%) Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 0.1 0.3 22.8 0.0 0.1 10.1 0.1 0.7 19.6 0.0 0.1 23.3 0.0 0.1 7.5 (0.0) (0.1) 8.5 1.8 71 23 29 46 1.4 54 15 52 44 1.5 59 8 57 83 1.2 83 19 89 111 1.1 83 19 89 93 1.1 83 19 89 81 27.2 31.6 27.5 10.6 13.9 14.6 11.8 16.3 12.7 11.5 16.4 13.0 9.6 14.2 11.2 11.0 16.3 12.6 29.4 75.2 0.8 18.6 4.9 0.1 20.0 18.9 85.3 0.7 12.0 5.6 0.0 12.2 23.2 81.4 0.6 11.2 2.9 0.1 12.2 23.1 80.2 0.7 12.9 2.3 0.0 13.1 18.2 84.0 0.7 11.1 6.1 0.0 11.2 20.2 78.0 0.8 12.1 12.1 15.7 15.7 17.8 1.6 78.6 12.3 12.3 14.8 1.4 90.4 11.9 11.9 14.1 1.3 110.1 15.0 14.3 18.2 1.8 123.3 14.6 14.6 19.8 1.7 137.8 18.5 18.5 25.0 2.2 156.4 7.4 6.5 1.5 1.4 0.8 2.4 0.6 9.4 7.8 1.3 1.2 0.9 3.9 0.4 9.8 8.2 1.1 1.2 1.0 3.9 0.4 8.1 6.4 0.9 1.5 0.9 3.5 0.4 8.0 5.9 0.8 1.5 0.7 3.1 0.4 6.3 4.6 0.7 1.9 0.6 2.3 0.3 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Sterlite Industries No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) :
12