Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

Jos Ignacio Llorente October 2011

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

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Introduction
Metalic Material Components Composite Material Components New Trends and Future

INTRODUCTION

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o World Market Update 2010: Forecast 2011-2015
- Market Status Demand & Supply Side - Market Forecast Forecast until 2015 Predictions 2016-2020 - Customers in the market - Production & Tariffs - Special Theme Wind turbine technology the shift towards direct drive

INTRODUCTION

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o World Market Growth rates 2005-2010

Year: Installed MW 2005 11,542 2006 15,016 2007 19,791 2008 28,190 2009 38,103 2010 39,404 Average growth - 5 years

Increase % Cumulative MW 59,399 30% 74,306 32% 94,005 42% 122,158 35% 160,084 3% 199,520 27.8%

Increase % 25% 27% 30% 31% 25% 27.4%

Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting - March 2011

INTRODUCTION

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

Installed Wind Power in the World

- Annual and Cumulative 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 r a e y r 20,000 e p W M 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Year Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting - March 2011
1983 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

200,000 175,000 150,000 125,000 W M e v t 100,000 i a l u m u 75,000 C 50,000 25,000 0

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Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o Installed capacity in 2009 and 2010 (Global)
Installed MW 2009 11,433 10,738 14,991 622 318 2 Accu. MW 2009 40,351 76,553 37,147 4,890 1,014 129 Installed MW 2010 6,639 10,980 21,130 478 98 79.0 Accu. MW 2010 46,990 87,565 58,277 5,368 1,112 208 % of installed MW 2010 16.8% 27.9% 53.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2%

Total Americas Total Europe Total South & East Asia Total OECD-Pacific Total Africa Total other continents and areas: Annual MW installed capacity Cumulative MW installed in the world

38,103 160,084

39,404 199,520

Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting - March 2011

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Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o Average size WTG (kW) installed each year
Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 China 897 931 1079 1220 1360 1,469 Denmark Germany 1381 1634 1875 1848 850 1879 2277 1916 2368 1976 2,514 2,047 India 780 926 986 999 1117 1,293 Spain 1105 1469 1648 1837 1904 1,929 Sweden 1126 1138 1670 1738 1974 1,995 UK 2172 1953 2049 2256 2241 2,568 USA 1466 1667 1669 1677 1731 1,875

Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting - March 2011

Global Average Annual WTG in kW

1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000
W k

Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting - March 2011

800 600 400 200 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

INTRODUCTION

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o The 10 largest markets in 2010 (Annual MW)

Country P.R. China USA India Germany UK Spain France Italy Canada Sweden Total Percent of World 2008 6,246 8,358 1,810 1,665 869 1,739 1,200 1,010 526 236 23,659 83.9% 2009 13,750 9,922 1,172 1,917 1,077 2,331 1,104 1,114 950 512 33,849 88.8% 2010 18,928 5,115 2,139 1,551 1,522 1,516 1,186 948 690 604 34,199 86.8% Share % Cum. Share % 48.0% 48% 13.0% 61% 5.4% 66% 3.9% 70% 3.9% 74% 3.8% 78% 3.0% 81% 2.4% 84% 1.8% 85% 1.5% 87%

Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting - March 2011

INTRODUCTION

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o Growth rates in the Top-10 markets

Accu. end 2007 5,875 16,879 22,277 14,714 7,845 2,471 2,394 2,721 1,845 2,150 79,171 Accu. end 2008 12,121 25,237 23,933 16,453 9,655 3,671 3,263 3,731 2,371 2,829 103,263 Accu. end 2009 25,853 35,159 25,813 18,784 10,827 4,775 4,340 4,845 3,321 3,474 137,191 Accu. Growth rate 3 years end 2009-2010 average 2010 % % 44,781 96.8% 73.2% 40,274 33.6% 14.5% 27,364 7.1% 6.0% 20,300 11.3% 8.1% 12,966 18.2% 19.8% 5,961 34.1% 24.8% 5,862 34.8% 35.1% 5,793 28.6% 19.6% 4,011 29.5% 20.8% 3,837 21.3% 10.4% 171,149 24.8% 29.3%

Country P.R. China USA Germany Spain India France UK Italy Canada Portugal Total "Ten"

Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting - March 2011

INTRODUCTION

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

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Top-10 Suppliers (Global) in 2010

% of the total market 39,404MW
GE WIND (US) 9.6% GOLDWIND (PRC) 9.5% ENERCON (GE) 7.2% SINOVEL (PRC) 11.1% SUZLON GROUP (IND) 6.9% DONGFANG (PRC) 6.7%

GAMESA (ES) 6.6% VESTAS (DK) 14.8% SIEMENS (DK) 5.9% UNITED POWER (PRC) 4.2%

Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting - March 2011

Others 20.9%

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Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

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o Segmentation of product sizes in 2008-2010

Year Total MW supplied Product (Size range) "Small WTGs" <750 kW "One-MW " 750-1499 kW "Mainstream" 1500-2500 kW "Multi-MW Class" >2500 kW Total

2008 31,281 0.5% 13.1% 80.4% 6.0% 100.0%

2009 37,117 % of total MW 1.1% 12.0% 81.9% 5.1% 100.0%

2010 40,437 0.2% 8.3% 83.1% 8.4% 100.0%

Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting - March 2011

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Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

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o Forecast for wind power development 2011-2015 (Global)

Cumulative installed capacity (MW) by end of 2010

Forecast 2011-2015
(incl. Offshore)

2010 Total Am ericas Total Europe Total South & East Asia Total OECD-Pacific Total other areas 46,990 87,565 58,277 5,351 1,338

2010 6,639 10,980 21,130 478 177

2011 10,200 12,650 21,200 1,250 700

2012 12,800 16,175 22,350 1,550 1,000

2013 11,600 18,025 27,150 2,250 1,450

2014 19,700 20,625 27,800 2,450 1,900

2015 20,400 24,050 31,550 2,850 2,500

Sum 74,700 91,525 130,050 10,350 7,550

Total MW every year:

new

capacity

39,404 46,000 53,875 60,475 72,475 81,350 314,175 513,695 199,520 245,520 299,395 359,870 432,345 513,695

Accu. capacity (MW)

Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting - March 2011

Cumulative installed capacity (MW) by end of 2015 Accu. 121,690 179,090 188,327 15,701 8,888

Installed capacity (MW) in 2010

Installed between 2015

capacity 2011-

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Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

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Annual Wind Power Development

Actual 1990-2010 & Forecast 2011-2015
90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000

MW
40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1990 1995 2000
Europe USA Asia

2010
Rest of World Existing

2015

Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting March 2011

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Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

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The Global Wind Power Market in EURO

Expected development 2011-2015
125,000 500,000

100,000

400,000

mill. Euro

75,000

300,000

50,000

200,000

25,000

100,000

0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Offshore 2010 Cumulative market

0 2015
Onshore 2010 Forecast world

Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting - March 2011

Forecast onshore

Cumulative mill. Euro

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Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

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Annual Global Wind Power Development

Actual 1990-2010
150,000

Forecast 2011-2015

Prediction 2016-2020

125,000

100,000

MW

75,000

50,000

25,000

0 1990 Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting - March 2011

Prediction

2010
Offshore (Forecast)

2015
Forecast

2020
Existing capacity

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Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

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Cumulative Global Wind Power Development

Actual 1990-2010
1,100,000 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000

Forecast 2011-2015

Prediction 2016-2020

MW

600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1990 2010

Prediction Forecast

2015

2020

Source: BTM Consult - A Part of Navigant Consulting March 2011

Existing capacity

INTRODUCTION

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o WTG LAYOUT (G5X-0,85 MW)
GEARBOX MAIN SHAFT & MAIN BEARING HOUSING

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GENERATOR

HUB MAIN FRAME BLADE YAW RING

INTRODUCTION

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o WTG LAYOUT (G8X-2MW)
1 Blade 2 Hub 3 Pitch 4 Spinner 5 Hub 6 Blade Bearing 7 Tower 8 Main Shaft 9 Torque Arms 10 Gearbox 11 Brake 12 Cover 13 Coupling 14 Generator 15 Transformer 16 Windvane 17 Service crane 18 Cover 19 Hydraulic Unit

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Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

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1 2 3 4

Introduction

Metalic Components
Composite Components New Trends and Future

METALIC COMPONENTS

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o FORGED, MAIN SHAFT (42CrNi) G5X:

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METALIC COMPONENTS

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o FORGED, MAIN SHAFT (42CrNi) G8X:

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METALIC COMPONENTS

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o CASTED, HUB (EN-GJS-400-18U-LT): G5X

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METALIC COMPONENTS

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o CASTED, HUB (EN-GJS-400-18U-LT): G8X

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METALIC COMPONENTS

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o CASTED, FRAME (EN-GJS-400-18U-LT): G5X

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METALIC COMPONENTS

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o CASTED, FRAME (EN-GJS-400-18U-LT): G8X

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METALIC COMPONENTS

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o CASTED, MAIN BEARING HOUSING (EN-GJS-400-18U-LT): G5X

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METALIC COMPONENTS

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o CASTED, MAIN BEARING HOUSINGS (EN-GJS-400-18U-LT): G8X

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METALIC COMPONENTS

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o FORGED: TOWER FLANGES (EN-S355)

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METALIC COMPONENTS

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

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o GEARBOX

METALIC COMPONENTS

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o GEARBOX

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METALIC COMPONENTS

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

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o GEARBOX

METALIC COMPONENTS

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o GEARBOX

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Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

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1 2 3 4

Introduction Metalic Components

Composite Components
New Trends and Future

COMPOSITE COMPONENTS

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o COMPOSITE: ROOT JOINTS (EPOXI+GF)

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COMPOSITE COMPONENTS

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o COMPOSITE: ROOT JOINTS (EPOXI+GF)

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COMPOSITE COMPONENTS

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o TOOLING FOR BLADE MANUFACTURING: MOULDS

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Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

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1 2 3 4

Introduction Metalic Components Composite Components

New Trends and Future

NEW TRENDS AND FUTURE

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o G10X: MAIN SHAFT

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NEW TRENDS AND FUTURE

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o G10X: MAIN SHAFT

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NEW TRENDS AND FUTURE

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

o Drive train
Integrated LSS Shaft and Gearbox: LSS supporting 1st stage Planet Carrier. Two stages planetary gearbox. Ratio: 37.88 Cantilever mounting of Generator. Medium speed generator: 450 rpm Drive Train Main dimensions: L = 6 m; W = 3.00 m; H = 3.00 m (without generator). Weight max. : 72.5 Ton

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Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

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o G10X: MAIN FRAME

NEW TRENDS AND FUTURE

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

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- Nominal weight: 23.5 T

NEW TRENDS AND FUTURE

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

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NEW TRENDS AND FUTURE

Wind Energy: Future Trends and Machining Needs

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- HUB Nominal weight: 16.5 Ton

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