World Trends & Forecasts

Computers Culture Design Therapy Learning Nanotechnology

Computers | Sci /Tech

The Troubling Future of Internet Search

Data customization is giving rise to a private information universe at the expense of a free and fair flow of information, says the former executive director of Moveon.org.
By Eli Pariser Someday soon, Google hopes to make the search box obsolete. Searching will happen automatically. When I walk down the street, I want my smartphone to be doing searches constantlydid you know? did you know? did you know? did you know? In other words, your phone should figure out what you would like to be searching for before you do, says Google CEO Eric Schmidt. This vision is well on the way to being realized. In 2009, Google began customizing its search results for all users. If you tend to use Google from a home or work computer or a smartphonei.e., an IP address that can be traced back to a single user (you)the search results you see incorporate data about what the system has learned about you and your preferences. The Google algorithm of 2011 not only answers questions, but it also seeks to divine your intent in asking and give results based, in part, on how it perceives you. This shift speaks to a broader phenomenon. Increasingly, the Internet is the portal through which we view and gather information about the larger world. Every time we seek out some new bit of information, we leave a digital trail that reveals a lot about us, our interests, our politics, our level of education, our dietary preferences, our movie likes and dislikes, and even our dating interests or history. That data can help companies like Google deliver you search engine results in line with what it knows about you. Other companies can use this data to design Web advertisements with special appeal. That customization changes the way we experience and search the Web. It alters the answers we receive when we ask questions. I call this the filter bubble and argue that its more dangerous than most of us realize. In some cases, letting algorithms make decisions about what we see and what opportunities were offered gives us fairer results. A computer can be made blind to race and gender in ways that humans usually cant. But thats only if the relevant algorithms are designed with care and acuteness. Otherwise, theyre likely to simply reflect the social mores of the culture theyre processinga regression to the social norm. The use of personal data to provide a customized search experience empowers the holders of data, particularly personal data, but not necessarily the seekers of it. Marketers are already exploring the gray area between what can be predicted and what predictions are fair. According to Charlie Stryker, a financial services executive whos an old hand in the behavioral targeting industry, the U.S. Army has had terrific success using social-graph data to recruit for the militaryafter all, if six of your Facebook buddies have enlisted, its

THE FUTURIST

September-October 2011

www.wfs.org

likely that you would consider doing so, too. Drawing inferences based on people like you or people linked to you is pretty good business. And its not just the Army. Banks, too, are beginning to use social data to decide to whom to offer loans. If your friends dont pay on time, its likely that youll be a deadbeat, too. A decision is going to be made on creditworthiness based on the creditworthiness of your friends, says Stryker. If it seems unfair for banks to discriminate against you because your high-school buddy is bad at paying his bills or because you like something that a lot of loan defaulters like, well, it is. And it points to a basic problem with induction, the logical method by which algorithms use data to make predictions. When you model the weather and predict theres a 70% chance of rain, it doesnt affect the rain clouds. It either rains or it doesnt. But when you predict that, because my friends are untrustworthy, theres a 70% chance that Ill default on my loan, there are consequences if you get me wrong. Youre discriminating. One of the best critiques of algorithmic prediction comes, remarkably, from the late nineteenth-century Russian novelist Fyodor Dostoevsky, whose Notes from Underground was a passionate critique of the utopian scientific rationalism of the day. Dostoevsky looked at the regimented, ordered human life that science promised and predicted a banal future. All human actions, the novels unnamed narrator grumbles, will then, of course, be tabulated according to these laws, mathematically, like tables of logarithms up to 108,000, and entered in an index in which everything will be so clearly calculated and explained that there will be no more incidents or adventures in the world. The world often follows predictable rules and falls into predictable patterns: Tides rise and fall, eclipses approach and pass; even the weather is more and more predictable. But when this way of thinking is applied to human behavior, it can be dangerous, for the simple reason that our best moments are often the most unpredictable ones. An entirely predictable life

isnt worth living. But algorithmic induction can lead to a kind of information determinism, in which our past clickstreams entirely decide our future. If we dont erase our Web histories, in other words, we may be doomed to repeat them. Exploding the Bubble Eric Schmidts idea, a search engine that knows what were going to ask before we do, sounds great at first. We want the act of searching to get better and more efficient. But we dont want to be taken advantage of, to be pigeonholed, stereotyped, or discriminated against based on the way a computer program views us at any particular moment. The question becomes, how do you strike the right balance? In 1973, the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare under Nixon recommended that regulation center on what it called Fair Information Practices: You should know who has your personal data, what data they have, and how its used. You should be able to prevent information collected about you for one purpose from being used for others. You should be able to correct inaccurate information about you. Your data should be secure. Nearly forty years later, the principles are still basically right, and were still waiting for them to be enforced. We cant wait much longer: In a society with an increasing number of knowledge workers, our personal data and personal brand are worth more than they ever have been. A bigger step would be putting in place an agency to oversee the use of personal information. The European Union and most other industrial nations have this kind of oversight, but the United States has lingered behind, scattering responsibilities for protecting personal information among the

JEN CAMPBELL

Eli Pariser

Algorithmic induction can lead to a kind of information determinism, in which our past clickstreams entirely decide our future. If we dont erase our Web histories, in other words, we may be doomed to repeat them.

Eli Pariser, author of

The Filter Bubble

THE FUTURIST

September-October 2011

www.wfs.org

World Trends & Forecasts

Federal Trade Commission, the Commerce Department, and other agencies. As we enter the second decade of the twenty-first century, its past time to take this concern seriously. None of this is easy: Private data is a moving target, and the process of balancing consumers and citizens interests against those of these companies will take a lot of fine-tuning. At worst, new laws could be more onerous than the practices they seek to prevent. But thats an argument for doing this right and doing it soon, before the companies who profit from private information have even greater incentives to try to block it from passing.
Eli Pariser is the board president and former executive director of the 5 million member organization MoveOn.org. This essay is excerpted from his book, The Filter Bubble: What the Internet Is Hiding From You. Reprinted by arrangement of The Penguin Press, a member of Penguin Group (USA), Inc. Copyright 2011 by Eli Pariser.

In a society with an increasing number of knowledge workers, our personal data and personal brand are worth more than they ever have been.

Eli Pariser

Culture | humaniTy

Finding Connection And Meaning in Africa

A doctor discovers meaningfulness in a simpler, survival-oriented culture.
By Tom Murphy As a radiologist physician, I went to Moshi, Tanzania, in June of 2007 to spend three and a half weeks teaching and working with radiology doctors in training at Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Center (KCMC) Hospital at the base of Mt. Kilimanjaro. As I said in my e-mails home, Every minute was an adventure and every day a safari. The medical milieu was one in which we dealt with basic human existence. We encountered a spectrum of problems, from extreme and untreatable infectious disease to the new plague of Western disease (di-

abetes, early obesity, heart attack, and stroke), and the growing presence of cancer. There were also wild cards, such as the curse of inexpensive but toxic Chinese drugs, as well as infants with congenital and rheumatic heart disease that were on waiting lists for surgical repair in India. Disease crossed all ages, from babies to teens to a 26-year-old male with terminal parasitic Echinococcus filling his lungs to old men with testicular tumors the size of a grapefruit. The hospital was open-air, Christian, 500 beds, and a major training center for nursing, anesthesia, radiology, dermatology, and other specialties. It was also a research center for Duke University (AIDS, dermatology, and medical students). But I went there for another purpose. I had been working with the Millennium Project, a futures think tank in Washington, D.C., for which I had been studying global issues for seven years. Africa, and particularly sub-Saharan Africa, has been at the forefront of many issuesAIDS, poverty, corruption, and so on. I had heard so much about Africa that I was more intrigued by what I could learn than what I could teach. What do the African people have to teach the rest of us about the future? Besides thousands of years of history and culture, there is the magical attraction of Africa, which is a palpable sense of connectionconnection to the past, connection to the earth, and connection to each other. It is simply people expressing themselves honestly while living in a world where meeting the basic needs for food, shelter, clothing, and human kindness fill up the day. The human kindness is broad. It encompasses the solidarity of survival of everyone and the spirit of the individual. These are a proud people in their demeanor, their voice, their language, and their respect for each other. They are self-confident enough for the young to say Schiamoo (I place myself at your feet) to the elders and mean it, and to welcome all into their homes to get to know people and their personalities. When I asked Korakola, one of the radiology residents, to review a talk I was going to give to the staff, she said, Say whatever you wish and we will decide what to take

THE FUTURIST

September-October 2011

www.wfs.org

Copyright of Futurist is the property of World Future Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use.