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H1 AJC Prelims 2011

Qn Solution
1(a).
( )
( )
( )
( )
( ) ( )
( )
7 7
2 2
3 3
3
2 2
2
3
2
2
3
1
2
1 3 1 3
dx dx
4 4
4 1
1
= 1 3 1
8
1
3
= (1 )
24 4
x x
x
x
x x
x
x C

+ +

+
+
+ +
+
+ + +

(b)(i)
Since
d
0
d
y
x
, it must be a point of inflexion.
(ii)
( )
2 d
3
d
y
x
x

( )
3 1
3
3
y x C +
At stationary point, ( )
2 d
3 0
d
y
x
x

3 x 1 u
( ) 3, 1 is a point on the curve.
1 C
( )
3 1
Equation of Curve: 3 1
3
y x +
2(i)
Area of square base
2
x
2
dA
x
dx

By Chain Rule,
dA dA dx
dt dx dt

Given that 0.5
dA
dt

When 5, 10
dA
x
dx

0.5 10
dx
dt


1
20
dx
dt

(ii) 15
15
l x
dl
dx

When 5 x ,
1
15
20
3
4
dl dl dx
dt dx dt

(iii)
3
15 V x
2
1
45
20
dV dV dx
dt dx dt
x


When 5 x
225
4
dV
dt

3(i) ln(1 ) 1 ln x x + +
ln(1 ) ln ln ln x e x ex + +
1
1 x xe +
1
1
1
x
e

From the above diagram,


ln(1 ) 1 ln x x + +
1
1
0
1
x
e
<

4.
2
2
1
Area
2 2
(1)
8
x
xy
x
xy

_ _
+

, ,
+
( ) Time (2 )(4) 10
2
x
y x
_
+ +

,
x=-1
x=0
( )
1
, 0 e

(0,0)
( ) (2 )(4) 10 200
2
x
y x
_
+ +

,
200 4 5
(2)
8
x x
y


Sub (2) into (1)
2 2 2
2 2
200 4 5
Area
8 8
25
2 2
x x x x
x x
x


+

d
25 0
d
A
x x
x

25
1
x


+
or 6.03 (3sf)
2
2
d
1 0
d
y
x
<
25
1
x


+
will give a maximum area.
Maximum Area
2 2
6.0326325 6.0326325
25(6.036325) 75.5
2 2


5(i).
4 12
2 3
x
y
x

+
18
2
2 3 x

+
(ii)
(iii)
4 12
2 3
x
y
x

+
18
2
2 3 x

+
( )
2
36
2 3
dy
dx
x

+
At A(3,0),
Gradient of normal
9
4

Equation of normal: ( )
9
3
4
y x
2 y
3
2
x
(3, 0)
(0, 4)
0 x
(iv)
Qn Section B
6(i).
3 5 5
Probability
5 6 6
5
12
_ _ _


, , ,

(ii)
Prob (2nd throw is successful/exactly 2 of the 3 throws are successful)
Prob(second throw is scuccessful and exactly 2 throws are successful)
=
Probability that 2 throws are successful
3 5 1
5 6 6
_ _

, ,

2 1 5
5 8 6
3 5 1 2 1 5 3 1 1
5 6 6 5 8 6 5 6 8
1
10 8
11 11
80
_ _ _ _
+

, , , ,
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
+ +

, , , , , , , , ,
_

,

_

,
(iii) Probability that player score on second throw
3 5 2 1 11
5 6 5 8 20
_ _ _ _
+

, , , ,
Probability
5 11 3
2
12 20 5
_ _ _


, , ,

11
40

7(i). ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P A P B P A B +
2 1 1
( ) ( )
3 3 3
P A P A + [since A & B are independent]
2 1
( )
3 3
P A
1
( )
2
P A
Area bounded
( )
3
0
9 18
3 2 dx
4 2 3
x
x
_


+
,

3
2
0
9
3 2 9ln(2 3)
4 2
x
x x x
1 _
+ +
1
,
]
= [ ]
9 9
9 6 9ln9 0 9ln3
4 2
1
_
+ +
1
, ]
33
9ln3
8
+
(ii) ( ') ( ) ( )
1 1 1
3 3 2
1
6
P B A P B P B A
_ _


, ,

(iii)
1
( ' | ) ( ')
2
P A B P A
8(i) Let X be the number of lemon candies in a randomly selected packet of 20.
(20, 0.24) X B :
( ) 20 0.24 4.8 E X
( ) 20 0.24 0.76 3.648 Var X
Since
60 ( 50) n >
, by Central Limit Theorem,
3.648
4.8,
60
X N
_

,
:
.
( 5) 0.20865208 P X =0.209 (3sf)
(ii) Let N be the population size and therefore 0.04N is the sample size.
Sampling interval =
0.04
N
N
=25
Randomly choose the initial strawberry candy from the first 25 strawberry candies as
it comes out from the production line for strawberry candies. Thereafter choose every
25
th
strawberry candy from the first strawberry candy until the end of the production for
the day.
(iii) The sample is biased, as only students are surveyed. Not all age groups have an equal
chance of being surveyed.
It will be difficult to get an exhaustive list of people of all age groups to do a proper
stratification. (no sampling frame)
9(i). Let X and Y denotes the lifespan of a LCD and Plasma television respectively.
2
~ (45000, 2000 ) X N
2
~ (30000,1850 ) Y N
1 2
2 ( ) ~ (30000, 22845000) X Y Y N +
( )
1 2
2 25000 0.85224 0.852 P X Y Y >
(3 sig fig)
Assumption: The lifespan of each television is independent of the lifespan of all other
televisions.
(ii) Let W denotes the number of plasma televisions out of 50 with a life span of more than
30000 hours.
~ (50, 0.5) W B
(14 22) (15 21) P W P W < <
( 21) ( 14) P W P W
0.16112 0.0013011
0.15982
0.160
(iii)
2
2000
~ 45000, X N
n
_

,
( 46500) 0.99 P X
46500 45000
0.99
2000
P Z
n
_




,
3
0.99
4
n
P Z
_



,
3
2.32635
4
n


9.6212 n
Least 10 n
(iv) (I) will be greater as A+B > 50000 takes into account all cases in (II) and more, such
as A < 5000 and B > 50000.
10.
(i) Let X be the number of pages in Section A that have errors.
(10, ) X B p :

( 7) P X
7 3
10
(1 )
7
p p
_


,
( )
3
7
120 1 p p
(ii)
For
1
4
p ,
7 3
1 3 405
( 7) 120
4 4 131072
P X
_ _


, ,

Let W be the number of pages that contain errors in Section B.
1
(60, )
4
W B :
Let T be the total number of pages that contain errors in the textbook.
1
(70, )
4
T B :
( 7) ( 13)
( 7 / T 20)
( 20)
P X P W
P X
P T


0.0030899 0.1033538
0.00383
0.08338134


(iii)
Let Y be the number of pages that contain errors out of the k pages read.
1
( , )
4
Y B k :
( 1) 0.75 P Y >
( 0) 0.25 P Y
3
0.25
4
k
_


,
ln 0.25
4.819
3
ln
4
k
_

,
.
Least k is 5 pages.
(iv)
1
(70, )
4
T B :
Since
1
70 17.5 5
4
np > and
3
70 52.5 5
4
nq > ,
( ) 17.5.5,13.125 T N :
approximately.
(23 42) P U < < (24 41) P U

(23.5 41.5) P U < <
(Continuity Correction)
=0.04884497
= 0.0488 (3sf)
(i)
Unbiased estimate of the population mean
228
3.8
60
x
Unbiased estimate of the population variance
( )
2
12.733
0.2158135593
59 59
x x

= 0.216 (3sf) [B1]


(ii) Let X be the time, in hours, that a randomly chosen customer spends shopping at
Takayama Shopping Complex, and

be the mean time.



Test
: 4
o
H
(public relations managers claim)
vs
1
: 4 H (superiors suspicion) [B1 ]
Test Statistic:
Since sample size is large, by Central Limit Theorem,
2
4,
60
s
X N
_

,
: [B1- CLT,
X
or Z]
Use a two-tailed test at 6%, and reject
o
H if 0.06 p < .
Using GC, with
3.8 x
,
0.2158135593 s
, n=60

0.000854 0.06 p < [B1-p]
We reject
o
H
. There is sufficient evidence at 6% significance level to confirm the
superiors suspicion.
(iii)
If we test
: 4
o
H
(public relations managers claim)
vs
1
: 4 H < (superiors suspicion)

The conclusion would remain the same. Since the value of p in part (ii) is less than 6%,
the new value of p would be half of the value in (ii), therefore it would still be less than
6%. Thus, we still reject
0
H
[B1]
(iv)
Test
0
:
o
H (the Publicity Campaign Managers claim)
vs
1 0
: H < (whether he has overstated the average time) [1]
Test Statistic:
0
X
Z
n

Use a one-tailed test at 6%, and reject


o
H
if
0.06 p <
.
For Publicity Campaign Manager to justify that he has not overstated the average
time,
i.e. do not reject
0
H
at 6% (z calc does not lie in critical region)
0
4.2375
1.5547736
0.466 8
calc
z

>

0
0.466
4.2375 1.5547736
8

_
>

,

0
4.493658 < hrs

0
4 < hrs 29.62 mins
Largest possible value of
0

is 4 hours 29 mins
12(i) From GC, the product moment correlation coefficient = 0.968 (3 sig fig)
(ii)


r is close to 1, and the points on the scatter diagram lie close to a straight line of
positive gradient, indicating a strong positive linear correlation between ground
temperature t and rate of chirps x. Increased ground temperature is associated with a
higher rate of chirps.
(iii)
Regression line is 0.885 3.88 x t
(iv) 0.88492972(25.0) 3.8837484 x
( ) 27.0, 20.0
18.239 x
18.2 x
This estimate is reliable as r is close to 1, and 25.0 t lies within the data range of x.
Interpolation for 2 strongly linearly correlated variables is reliable.
(v) If t is increased by 5, x increases by 5 0.8848297 4.42
This result is not reliable because we are extrapolating beyond the region where the data
is collected and analyzed.
(vi) The value of
r
remains the same since it is not affected by any translation or scaling.
OR r measures the correlation between the variables x and t, and is unaffected by the
unit of measurement of t.