Nicole Bachelard-Cheseaux

T206

T206 Energy for a sustainable future

Name: Title of project: Chosen topic: Date: Word count:

Nicole Bachelard-Cheseaux Key measures to reduce CO2 emissions by 10% over 10 years in Eysins Energy sustainability in a village 15 September, 2011 4088 (excluding texts in figures, tables, reference, bibliography, acknowledgments and appendices)

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Table of content
Synopsis ................................................................................................................................................... 4 Introduction............................................................................................................................................. 4 Energy demands by households in Eysins ............................................................................................... 5 Key factors ........................................................................................................................................... 5 Current energy consumption by type of use....................................................................................... 8 Heating ............................................................................................................................................ 8 Electricity ....................................................................................................................................... 11 Transport ....................................................................................................................................... 12 Estimated CO2 emissions for 2010 and 2020 target ......................................................................... 13 Proposed measures ............................................................................................................................... 15 Heating .............................................................................................................................................. 15 Electricity ........................................................................................................................................... 17 Transport ........................................................................................................................................... 18 Options appraisal................................................................................................................................... 19 Costs and benefits ............................................................................................................................. 19 Other advantages and disadvantages ............................................................................................... 20 Recommendations ................................................................................................................................ 21 1. Reducing energy requirements in buildings .................................................................................. 21 2. Promoting energy efficiency and a shift to new energy sources for electricity generation ......... 22 3. Mix of measures for transport ...................................................................................................... 23 Estimated CO2 savings in 2020 ......................................................................................................... 24

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Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................. 25 References ............................................................................................................................................. 26 Bibliography, further reading ................................................................................................................ 28 Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................................. 28 Appendix................................................................................................................................................ 28

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Synopsis
This report is destined to the municipality of Eysins and suggests measures to reduce Eysins' global CO2 emissions by 10% in the next ten years, despite the village's anticipated population growth. It uses various federal, cantonal and communal official statistics to make assumptions about current energy use and related CO2 emissions at the household level. It further uses past trends to make predictions about the future of Eysins (population growth) and identify fields for CO2 abatement. This report advocates the deployment of strong measures based on 3 main axes: (i) reduce energy demand for heating by better isolating the existing housing stock and set strong insulation standards for new constructions, (ii) promote and support the installation of decentralised electricity production systems and (iii) provide strong financial incentives to gradually establish a vision of transport less dependent on cars.

Introduction
The municipality knows my concern about sustainability issues linked with today's energy use, but does not necessarily share my sense of urgency. However, improving the environmental impact of energy use in Eysins could be beneficial in several aspects: 1. Decreasing the dependency of inhabitants on fossil fuels could prepare the village for future unpleasant potentialities (e.g. mandatory measures to reduce CO2 emissions at the national or international level) 2. Decreasing energy use could help inhabitants save money, especially as energy costs may significantly increase in the coming years, due to internalization of environmental costs of fossil fuels and the finite nature of traditional fuels. 3. Eysins could become a model for surrounding villages

In accordance with the mayor of Eysins, the aim of this report is threefold. First, it proposes an overview of the actual energy situation in Eysins and estimates current CO2 emissions. Second, it proposes a series of measures aiming to reduce CO2 emissions by 10% in 10 years. Third, it

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recommends measures based on the appraisal of options (Appendix B, that can be usefully kept for future decisions) and estimates the level of difficulty to achieve the 10% reduction target. This report is interested in CO2 emissions savings that can be done by tackling the energy use at the level of individual households in the village of Eysins. This means that it will not consider potential savings from improvements in public buildings and resulting energy use. In a more comprehensive study, this should of course not be neglected. There are 3 main axes to consider: (i) electricity, (ii) space and hot water heating and (iii) transportation needs. Priority should be given to reduction in transport emissions as in 2009, 39% of total CO2 emissions in Switzerland were due to transport alone (FSO, 2011: 26), of which 69% are due to private cars (ibid. 27).

Energy demands by households in Eysins

Key factors
It is first necessary to understand key factors that influence energy demands today and will impact future energy demands in the village. First, Eysins geographical situation (see Figure 1) doubtless influences transport patterns and choices. Situated at 2.7 km from Nyon and the nearest railway station, and at 2 minutes by car from the motorway linking Geneva with Lausanne, the high majority of journeys are done by car. Probably up to 30% of the population owns at least two cars. As you might well be aware, given that only two buses an hour link Eysins to Nyon and that no direct bus links Eysins to the nearest shopping mall in Signy (only 3 minutes by car), unless measures are taken to change this situation, there is not much chance for change.

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Figure 1: Situation of Eysins in relation to major surrounding cities

Second, Eysins population has sharply increased recently amongst others due to the lack of vacant apartments in Geneva. Consequently, as you know, Eysins is now part of a zone declared as first priority for urbanisation. Thus, the population is likely to continue its growth and further increase the village's energy demands in 2020. Below, Figure 2 presents the past and forecasted evolution of Eysins population between 1950 and 2020. Table 1 similarly presents evolution of household size in comparison with the Swiss average between 1900 and 2020.

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Figure 2: evolution of population in Eysins 1950-2010, forecast 2015-2020. Source: years 1950-2010 (SCRIS, 2011), 2015-2020: personal forecast.

Due to its proximity both with Nyon and the countryside and its family oriented new constructions, Eysins managed to attract many families since 2000 as suggested by cantonal statistics. This report thus assumes that in 2020 the household size will remain unchanged (i.e. 2.6 persons/household) (see Table 1).

Average size of households, Switzerland, 1900-2020 1900 Switzerland Vaud Canton Eysins (3) (5) (6)
[1] (1) (4) (2)

1980 2.51

1990 2.33

4.5 4.2
[2]

2000 2.24 2.2 2.4

2010 2.18 2.6

2020

2.6

Sources: (FSO, 2011a) except for 2010, Assumptions:

(4) (5)

(SCRIS, 2000a),

(3)

(SCRIS, 2000b) except for 2010 and 2020

Data indicated under Switzerland 2010 corresponds in fact to data from 2009 (FSO, 2011a)

Data indicated under Eysins 2010 corresponds to data for 2011 (Monthennex, 2011). Forecasts:
(6)

2020 Data is a personnal assumption

Table 1: average size of households, Switzerland, 1900-2020

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Based on the above assumptions about population (P) and household size (HS), this report assumes the following number of housings (H) in Eysins based on the calculation :

Population, household size and housings, Eysins, 2000-2020

(1)

population size houshold size (2) number of housings Sources:

(1) (2)

2000 813 2.4 339

2010 1229 2.6 473

2011 1303 2.6 501

2020 1586 2.6 610

2000 and 2010 (SCRIS, 2011), 2011 (Monthennex, 2011), 2020 forecast 2000 (SCRIS, 2000), 2010 assumption, 2011 (Monthennex, 2011), 2020 forecast

Table 2: housings in Eysins: evolution 2000-2020

These assumptions will be used to calculate energy demands as "the number of household is a key factor in energy use" (T206, Book 4: 86).

Current energy consumption by type of use

Hereafter, this report presents assumptions about current domestic energy consumption for 3 main types of energy use at the household level: 1) heating, 2) electricity, and 3) transport. Heating Energy consumption for space heating purposes depends on several factors: the quality of insulation, the volume to be heated, the level of comfort sought by inhabitants, their habits and the type and efficiency of the heating system. Eysins housing stock can be considered more generous in surface, but better isolated than the Swiss average given that a higher number of landlords live in their own dwelling. Consequently, an average household in Eysins will require less energy for heating than the Swiss average. This report uses a simplified approach to estimate heat energy consumption. It assumes four types of dwelling (see repartition in Figure 3) differentiated by an average fuel oil equivalent requirement (Oreq, determined by the year of construction or renovation) and an average surface (S). The average 8

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energy requirements (Ereq) for each type of dwellings is then obtained with the calculation (see Table 3).

Figure 3: Repartition of dwellings by type, Eysins, 2010 [%]

Average heating requirements by dwelling type, Eysins, 2010 Households Type of dwelling A1: A2: B1: B2: badly insulated house well-insulated house badly-insulated appartment well-insulated appartment year of construction or renovation average surface (1) [m2] < > < > 2000 2000 2000 2000 118 118 98 98 average space + water heating requirements per m2 per household [burning oil eq. [Kwh litres year-1] (2) year-1] (3) 19 23,115 7 9,235 19 20,817 7 7,669

nb 131 58 175 109 473

Total

(1) my assumption; based on an average surface of 98m2 for Swiss housing stock and 105m2 for Swiss rural housing stock (FSO, 2011a: 15) (2) my assumption of average burning oil requirement, based on (energie-environnement.ch, 2011) burning oil conversion factor: 10.31 kWh per litre, source: (Carbontrust, 2011) Table 3: Heating requirements by dwelling type, Eysins, 2010
(3)

In order to estimate annual energy consumption and CO2 emissions for Eysins, we still need to link heating requirements with the type of heating system. Indeed, traditional fuel oil or electric heating systems, very common in Switzerland, emit more CO2 than more environmental friendly heating systems (e.g. ground source heat pumps - hereafter GSHP- or pellet). For instance, a dwelling of type

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A1 (i.e. badly-insulated house) heated with fuel oil emits around 6147 kg of CO2 / year, whereas a similar type of dwelling heated with wood pellets emits up to 85% less (976 kg of CO2 / year). The best energy savings occur when the house is correctly insulated (and become of type A2) and is heated with GSHP or pellet systems (see Figure 4 for further differences or Table A.1 and A.2 in Appendix A for details).

Figure 4: Estimated CO2 emissions due to heat energy demands by type of dwelling and type of heating system, Eysins, 2010

Energy consumption and CO2 emissions for Eysins in 2010 are estimated in Table 41.

Estimated energy consumption [kWh] for heating purposes and associated CO2 emissions [kg], Eysins, 2010 (A) number of households Eysins (village level) Average (household level) 473 N/A (C) (F) Energy CO2 consumption emissions [k Wh [k g] year-1] 7,940,187 1,852,172 16,798 3,918

Table 4: Estimated energy consumption and CO2 emissions for heat delivery at household level, Eysins, 2010
1

Calculations to arrive at these results are explained in Table A.2 in Appendix A.

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Concerning heat, it is important to notice that the bulk of CO2 emissions (85%, in dark blue and dark violet, Figure 5 below) is due to badly insulated dwellings (types A1 and B1), representing 65% of the housing stock in Eysins (see Figure 3).

Figure 5: CO2 emissions due to heat energy consumption by dwelling type, Eysins, 2010

Electricity Concerning electricity, energy consumption is easier to estimate as federal statistics are available for year 2010. This report assumes that the electricity consumption per household in Eysins is about 15% higher than the Swiss average (see Table 5).

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Electricity consumption [kWh] and CO2 emissions [kg] in Switzerland and Eysins, 2009-2010 Switzerland 2009 2010 Electricity consumption total [kWh] (1) 1.792E+10 1.862E+10 Electricity consumption per capita [kWh] (2) 2,277 2,366 Electricity consumption per household [kWh] (3) 4,964 5,157 conversion factor [k g CO2 /k Wh] Total emissions (village level) [kg] Average emissions (household level) [kg] 0.154 764 794

Eysins 2010 2,803,404 2,281 5,931

431,724 913

Source: (1) data for Switerland (FOEN, 2011b: 5) (2) data for Switerland calculated with (1) and population size (FSO, 2011d) (3) data for Switerland calculated with (1), (2) and household size (FSO, 2011e)
Table 5: Estimation of electricity consumption, Eysins, 2010

Indeed, in villages, the population is usually wealthier than in cities. Consequently, households in Eysins often own a complete set of domestic appliances (fridge, refrigerator, microwave oven, dishwasher, washing-machine and tumble dryer). Similarly, the number of other electronic devices (TV, phones, DVD player, and computer) and lighting commodities per household tend to be higher too2.

Transport FSO states that "the sum of all the distances covered on road and rail by residents and foreigners in Switzerland was 122 billion person-kilometres in 2009 (including non-motorised traffic)" (2011b: 17). Thus, an average Swiss citizen totalises 15'502 kilometres per year outside air travel3. Eysins population uses the car more often than the Swiss average. On the one hand, Eysins is further away from working places, shopping centres, and so on. On the other hand, households are wealthier

As the households are bigger in Eysins (see Table 1), notice that the electricity consumption per capita will however be lower than the Swiss average (see Table 5). 3 This report assume that the kilometres done by foreigners in Switzerland are more or less equivalent to the kilometres done by Swiss citizens in foreign countries.

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than the Swiss average; thus, as suggested by FSO (2007: 3), Eysins inhabitants will tend to travel more. This report consequently assumes that a citizen from Eysins: travels in average 18'000 km / year (not taking into account air travel) is more dependent of the car (87% of distances) than the Swiss average (73.8%) is much less eager to take the bus than the Swiss average due to insufficient frequencies (1% of distances compared with 4.1% of distances) (Table 6 below for Eysins can be compared with Table A.4 in Appendix A for Switzerland).

Transport, Eysins, 2010 2010 Average annual distance Population Household 18,000 1,229 2.6 km / person persons person / household

Estimated CO2 emissions due to transport [kg], Eysins, 2010 modal share 82.0% 11.3% 5.7% 1.0% distances [km person-1 year-1] 14,760 2,034 1,026 180 18,000 modal [g km-1] (1) 167 65 0 66 CO2 emissions per person [kg year-1] 2,465 132 0 12 total [kg year-1] 3,029,387 162,486 0 14,601 3,206,473 6,783

Modal share car train walk ing / cycling bus

Total 100.0% Average CO2 emissions (household level) source:

(1)

data from (T206, book 3, table 1.9, p.24) except for car (WWF, undated: 4).

Table 6: Estimated CO2 emissions due to transport, Eysins, 2010

FSO also mentions two facts that most probably apply to Eysins too and that you should keep in mind while evaluating options to reduce CO2 emissions: 70% of distances travelled are due to daily travel, of which the majority concerns leisure. 30% are due to holidays (FSO, 2007: 2) 30% of journeys by car are made for distances below 3 km (ibid.:4)

Estimated CO2 emissions for 2010 and 2020 target

Having formulated and clarified assumptions about energy consumption in 2010 in Eysins for heat, electricity and transportation purposes at the household level, this report summarizes the resulting 13

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CO2 emissions below to allow you to anticipate the magnitude of change required by 2020 (see Table 7). Given a predicted increase in population from 1229 inhabitants in 2010 to 1586 inhabitants in 2020, meeting the objective of 10% reduction in CO2 emissions for the village requires an average reduction in CO2 emissions of 30,5% at the household level (see Table 7 below).

CO2 emissions by type of use, Eysins (2010- 2020) compared with Switzerland (2005-2007) In [t/year -1 ] and [%] Eysins, 2010 Eysins, 2020 target total CO2 emissions Heat Electricity (excl. heat) Transport (excl. air travel) Total
(1) (2)

HH 3.9 0.9 6.8 11.6

total (-10% target) 1,667 389 2,886 4,941

HH 2.7 0.6 4.7 8.1

avg. HH reduction [%]

1,852 432 3,206 5,490

Switzerland 2005 2007 average average HH (1) HH (2) 5.2 4.1 0.8 4.2 6.6 8.3 12.6

30.3%

source: calculated with total CO2 emissions (FSO, 2005) and population (FSO, 2011d) ref: http://www.leclimatentrenosmains.org

Table 7: Comparing CO2 emissions by type of use in Eysins and Switzerland

It is also useful to understand the contribution of each type of energy use to total CO2 emissions in Eysins (highlighted in Figure 6). As transport is the main source of CO2 pollution in Eysins, measures aimed at influencing transport habits will be crucial.

Figure 6: Domestic CO2 emissions by type of use, Eysins, 2010

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Compared with available Swiss figures (see Table 7, Figures 7.a and 7.b), Eysins is ahead in energy and CO2 savings concerning stationary emissions (heat and electricity) but much more energy-greedy concerning transport.

Figure 7.a and 7.b: Domestic GHG emissions per capita by type of use, Switzerland, 2005-2007 Source: 2005 data: calculated with total CO2 emissions (FSO, 2005) and population (FSO, 2011d), 2010. 2007 data: obtained from my personal account on website http://www.leclimatentrenosmains.org.

Proposed measures
Given the magnitude of change required at the household level, it is clear that meeting the target of 10% reduction for the village is a challenge. The measures proposed below include options to reduce energy use (i.e. taking into account energy efficiency as well as reducing energy demand) and options to shift to less polluting energy sources.

Heating
Swiss politicians all agree that renovating badly-isolated buildings should constitute a priority. Therefore, the federal office for the environment (FOEN) set up a programme called "Programme Btiments" to reduce energy losses in buildings (2011: 28). Experts such as Professor Chuard from EPFL estimate that up to 70% could be saved with better insulation (quoted in Bloch, 2011). Eysins, with its 306 dwellings that can be considered as rather badly insulated (Table 3) still has a huge potential for improvement. 15

Nicole Bachelard-Cheseaux Proposed measures

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This report proposes differentiated measures for the existing building stock and new constructions. Concerning the former, I would suggest strong measures supporting in priority dwelling insulation projects and as second priority supporting shifts to less polluting heating systems: BUILD_1: Widespread communication and support for the federal programme Btiments. Information about potential subventions at the cantonal and federal level and administrative support to help Eysins citizens ask for subventions for insulation projects. BUILD_2: Fiscal reduction for insulation projects on a building's envelope that has been achieved during the fiscal year under scrutiny (with priority given to dwellings heated with burning oil). BUILD_3: If needed, starting 2015, introduction of a tax on households that own a burning oil or direct electric system with the aim first to promote a change of heating system and second to provide financial income for insulation projects. Concerning the latter, I would suggest strong measures to make sure that energy savings done on existing stock are not counterbalanced by new poor insulation or bad heating system choices. These would include: BUILD_4: Minergie standard mandatory4 to obtain new constructions permits. BUILD_5: Review in priority construction demands that have as a feature less polluting heating systems (i.e. not based on burning oil or electricity). BUILD_6: Strongly discourage new construction entrepreneurs to choose oil or direct electricity based heating systems. If needed, starting 2015, refuse construction permits for dwellings whose heating system is burning oil or direct electricity unless they show a very high efficiency.

Which sets a maximum of 3,8 liters / m of burning oil equivalent requirement for new constructions (energieenvironnement.ch, 2011)

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The aim of these measures is thus first to increase significantly the number of well-insulated dwellings within the existing building stock, second to minimise the CO2 emissions of future new constructions and third to promote a shift away from fuel oil and traditional electric heating systems to less polluting heating systems.

Electricity
Figure 6 showed that CO2 emissions due to electricity are rather small compared with emissions caused by heating and transport. There are however some opportunities for energy savings in reducing electricity consumption from households. But, the main contribution to reducing CO2 emissions, at least in the long-term, will come from shifting to new energy sources. Proposed measures I would thus propose the following measures: ELEC_1 (similar to measure BUILD_1): Information, promotion and administrative support about federal and cantonal subventions for decentralized electricity production from renewables ELEC_2: Facilitated processes and regressive fiscal reduction for the installation of decentralized electricity producing systems (PV, small wind turbine for instance) ELEC_3: Inform on and promote the purchase of efficient electric appliances 5 ELEC_4: Inform on and possibly subsidize efficient lighting devices

The website www.topten.ch, set up by the federal program Suisse Energie, can prove a valuable resource for this and the following measure.

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Transport
Transport is a very sensitive domain, especially when it comes to private cars. Indeed, cars are highly symbolic objects as Freund and Martin suggest (quoted in Warren, 2007: 96); furthermore, people see many benefits in cars (e.g. flexibility, convenience, low cost [ibid.]) and changed their lifestyle accordingly, nonetheless by moving to more remote places outside city centres. Yet the high dependency of Eysins inhabitants towards the car is not sustainable. To ensure that appropriate measures are taken, public approval is essential. Therefore, I would suggest that, apart from the proposed measures below, the municipality includes the inhabitants in the decision making process (i.e. about how changes in transport might contribute to meet the 10% reduction objective).The municipality should highlight the fact that transport makes up 54% of 2010 emissions in Eysins and should present the 10% reduction objective as non-negotiable. But it should let inhabitants have a say about the means to achieve this objective. For instance, it could invite inhabitants to a workshop where it could present some measures from which the inhabitants could choose and to which they could add their own propositions. Proposed measures Potential measures could be: TRANS_1: increase bus frequency: instead of 2 journeys to Nyon per hour, increase to 4 journeys an hour. TRANS_2: subsidize bus season tickets by 30%: 220 CHF for annual bus passes (value 660 CHF) TRANS_3: subsidize train season tickets: 300 CHF for owners of a annual pass Eysins-Geneva (value 1575 CHF) or Eysins-Lausanne (value 2300 CHF) TRANS_4: build a secured bike lane linking Nyon to Eysins and further villages TRANS_5: subsidize an electric bicycle: 300 CHF for households who decide to give up one car (value 1500-3000 CHF) 18

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TRANS_6: promote combined modal options (e.g. first trip by car to the station, then longer distance with the train)

TRANS_7: If needed, starting 2015, introduction of a communal tax for each car owned.

Options appraisal
All measures are described and evaluated with the help of several criteria in Appendix B. This appraisal of options will use costs and other advantages and disadvantages as criteria.

Costs and benefits

To be able to decide which measures should be adopted, it is necessary to estimate costs and contrast them with resulting benefits. The most costly measures (e.g. BUILD_1, BUILD_2, ELEC_1b) are those that happen to be the most effective in terms of environmental benefits. They also have the potential to create employments and have positive effect on the local economy. Hence, they should be seriously considered. To limit communal expenses (or fiscal revenue losses), the municipality could set a maximum budget for each measure (as proposed in Appendix B). BUILD_2 and ELEC_1b measures seem unreasonable and redundant at first. Indeed, monetary incentives already exist at national and cantonal level. However, it should be emphasized that renovation and renewable energy installation are costly; their uptake can be only be favoured initially by subventions as demonstrated by the REFIT-scheme introduced in Germany (T206, DVD 2). A REFIT-scheme exists in Switzerland too, but the number of demands exceeds the yearly funds at disposal at the federal level. These two measures could remedy this lack.

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Happily, there are also some easy wins at low cost. 10 years should be enough to create stock turnover of inefficient appliances. If continuous communication and promotion of efficient appliances is done by the municipality, CO2 savings will happen at negligible costs for the commune.

Other advantages and disadvantages

Apart from costs and employment, there are other advantages and inconvenients associated with the proposed measures. Response of the electorate is of course a factor that the municipality wishes to consider. In this view, only BUILD_3 and TRANS_8 measures face the risk of being unpopular to Eysins inhabitants. They indeed add up to many environmental taxes existing at the national level, but they should be considered as a backup solution (i.e. in case the uptake of previous measures does not show enough CO2 reduction) in a policy of carrot and stick. Wider considerations, such as potential health improvement and reducing risks of accidents should also be considered. For instance, measures TRANS_4 and TRANS_5 promoting bikes, apart from favouring modal mix, can also have positive effects on health. Securing a bicycle lane can help reduce the vulnerability associated with this mode of transportation. Furthermore, even if the uptake might not be proportional to the costs, it is a symbolic move towards a more sustainable future.

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Recommendations
Taking into account previous remarks on the limits and the strengths of the proposed measures, I would advise the municipality to adopt measures consistent with the following objectives: a. all together, measures lead to lasting CO2 savings of 10% compared with 2010 b. each measure is socially acceptable c. each measure is in adequacy with the concept of sustainable energy use. My recommendation is based on 3 scenarios described hereafter and for which I estimated CO2 savings.

1. Reducing energy requirements in buildings

First, a HEAT scenario aims to reduce CO2 emissions by reducing primarily energy requirements for heating purposes. It imagines the following measures, and expected results:

Measures 2020 HEAT scenario

Expected results

About 50% of 2010 badly-insulated dwellings (A1 and B1) with a fuel oil heating system (i.e. 122 dwellings) are renovated insulation improved to A2/B2 level. Around 30 fuel oil heating systems are changed (i.e. to either ( BUILD_3 or GSHP or pellet system) BUILD_6 ) All new constructions since 2012 meet the Minergie standard and chose a GSHP, pellet system or equivalent for heating.
BUILD_1 BUILD_2 BUILD_4

Table 8: 2020 HEAT scenario

According to this scenario, the change in the housing stock between 2010 and 2020 would appear as follows (see Figures 8a and 8b) and total savings could be estimated to more than 500 tonnes of CO2, or 29% of 2010 CO2 emissions due to heat (see Table A.5 in Appendix A for details).

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Figure 8.a and 8.b: Structural changes in housing stock, Eysins, 2010 estimate, 2020 HEAT scenario

2. Promoting energy efficiency and a shift to new energy sources for electricity generation
My second recommendation concerns electricity. It imagines the following measures, assumptions and results as the basis for an ELECTRICITY scenario:

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Measures 2020 ELECTRICITY scenario ELEC_1a ELEC_2 ELEC_3 ( ELEC_1b Assumption Improvement in efficiency

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Expected results 10% of buildings are equipped with decentralised electricity producing systems (PV, small wind turbine) 70% appliances meet A+/A++ standard (10% in 2010?) Increase in number of electronic devices par household (ipad & co) ) 90% of the population know about energy efficiency and associated energy and cost savings. In 10 years, the "natural" stock turnover is sufficient to bring about energy savings due to more efficient appliance and, stronger national regulations. No subsidies are needed, but communication is primordial to allow inhabitants to make informed choices over the long-term.

Table 9: 2020 ELECTRICITY scenario

Actually, Swiss electricity is provided almost entirely by hydroelectricity (56,5% ) and nuclear power plants (38,1%) (OFEN, 2011c: 15). The latter, following popular voting, should be shut down in 2025. Shifting energy source to renewables will thus be necessary to keep electricity at a low level of CO2 emissions when the nuclear power plants will be shut down after 2025 and should thus be promoted early enough. However, by 2020, they might only marginally help to decrease CO2 emissions, as they are more likely to replace electricity from hydroelectric power plants. Indeed nuclear or traditional thermal power plants function more efficiently when used at full load (Boyle, 2004). Thus, this scenario would rather rely on energy efficiency to reduce electricity consumption by 10% and save 43 tons of CO26.

3. Mix of measures for transport

Third, my recommendation concerning transport imagines the following measures, assumptions and results as the basis for a TRANSPORT scenario:

However, future CO2 savings due to higher efficiency is highly uncertain; a rebound effect is possible (e.g. due to an increase in the number of electronic devices per household with the probable explosion of sales of devices such as the iPod, iPhone, iPad and their competitors).

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2020 TRANSPORT scenario Measures TRANS_1 TRANS_3 TRANS_4 TRANS_6 ( TRANS_8 ) Assumption Improvement in efficiency Expected results

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2% decrease of total distances travelled per person per year decrease car use by 10% increase train use by 30% increase walking or biking activity by 10% increase bus use by 50% an average of 135 g of CO2 emitted by the Swiss car pool (assuming Switzerland to be aligned with the European target for 2020)

Table 10: 2020 Transport scenario

This scenario achieves 40 tonnes of CO2 or 1.3% of 2010 CO2 emissions due to transport (see Table A.6 in Appendix A for details). Given the highly emotional dimension of transport, it seems very challenging to expect more contribution from transport to meet the 10% reduction target. However, a mix of measures is critical to sufficiently decrease CO2 emissions from transport use in order not to hinder the 10% overall reduction target and prepare a long-term and lasting change in transport patterns.

Estimated CO2 savings in 2020

The following table summarises the expected CO2 savings. Altogether, the measures could achieve a reduction of 10.9 % in CO2 emissions at the level of the village. Given the assumptions about population increase, this would correspond to an average reduction in carbon intensity of 31% at the household level, which is ambitious (see Table 11).

Summary of CO2 potential savings, Eysins (2010- 2020) In [t year-1 ] CO2 emissions, 2010 CO2 emissions, 2020 HH level HH level total total heat 1,852 1,336 3.9 2.2 electricity 432 389 0.9 0.6 transport 3,206 3,166 6.8 5.2 total 5,490 11.6 4,891 8.0

CO2 savings HH level total 516 1.7 43 0.3 40 1.6 600 3.6

Savings [%] HH total 27.9% 44.1% 10.0% 30.3% 1.3% 23.5% 10.9% 31.0%

Table 11: Summary of potential CO2 savings, Eysins 2010-2020

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Conclusion
As this report illustrated, reducing CO2 emissions by 10% over 10 years in Eysins is a challenging task. Population might grow by almost 30% and transport by car would tend to increase. In this context, it is important to take ambitious measures and explain to the inhabitants why these are important. As highlighted in the scenarios, a step-by-step approach should be taken to ensure public approval. Incentives should be favoured at first (e.g. subventions, fiscal reductions), but if these do not lead to sufficient uptake, they should be complemented by discouraging measures such as taxes. To conclude, I would insist on 3 key objectives. Two objectives concern the medium term: (i) reduce energy demand for heating by better isolating the existing housing stock and set strong insulation standards for new constructions, (ii) promote and support the installation of decentralised electricity production systems. A final objective concerns the long-term and advocates the provision of strong financial incentives to gradually establish a vision of transport less dependent on cars.

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References
Bloch, G. (2011), 'Les pionniers de lnergie verte: Il traque le gaspillage nergtique ', in Le Temps, published 27 July, [online] http://www.letemps.ch/Facet/print/Uuid/76486cae-b7b4-11e0-951495fdaaddf9dc/Il_traque_le_gaspillage_%C3%A9nerg%C3%A9tique (accessed 13 September 2011) Boyle, G., Everett, B. and Ramage, J. (eds) (2004), Energy Systems and Sustainability: Power for a sustainable future, Oxford, University Press/Milton Keynes, The Open University. Carbon Trust (2010), 'Resources - conversion factors ', [online] http://www.carbontrust.co.uk/cutcarbon-reduce-costs/calculate/carbon-footprinting/pages/conversion-factors.aspx (Accessed 17 August 2011) Energie-environnement.ch (2011), ' nergie de chauffage par m2', [online] http://energieenvironnement.ch/economiser-le-chauffage/situer-sa-consommation-de-chauffage/energie-dechauffage-par-m2 (accessed 12 December 2011) Eysins (2011), "Eysinfos 53", [online] http://www.eysins.ch/home_eysinfos.htm (accessed 31 August 2011) Publications by FSO (Federal Statistical Office) FSO (2011a), 'Statistique des btiments et des logements 2009: Donnes structurelles sur les btiments et les logements', published 27 January, [online] http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/fr/index/themen/09/22/publ.html?publicationID=4254 (accessed 1 September 2011) FSO (2011b), 'Mobility and Transport: Pocket Statistics 2011', published 28 July, [online] http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/en/index/themen/11/22/publ.html?publicationID=4418 (accessed 17 August 2011) FSO (2011c), 'Consommation finale d'nergie selon les catgories de consommateurs' (xls) [online] http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/fr/index/themen/08/02/blank/key/verbrauch/verbrauchgruppe n.html (accessed 8 September 2011) FSO (2011d), 'Population size and population composition', [online] http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/en/index/themen/01/02/blank/key/bevoelkerungsstand.html (accessed 8 September 2011) FSO (2011e), 'Households according to number of persons per household', [online] http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/en/index/themen/01/04/blank/key/haushaltsgroesse.html (accessed 8 September 2011) FSO (2011f), ' Households according to number of persons per household', [online] http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/en/index/themen/01/04/blank/key/haushaltsgroesse.html (accessed 17 August 2011) FSO (2007), 'La mobilit en Suisse Rsultats du microrecensement sur le comportement de la population en matire de transports', [online] www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/fr/index.Document.91827.pdf (accessed 14 September 2011)

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FSO (2005), 'Comptabilit environnementale', [online] http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/fr/index/themen/02/05/blank/ind22.indicator.130217.224.html (accessed 31 August 2011) Publications by FOEN (Federal Office for the environment) FOEN (2010), 'Programme Btiments: un pilier de la politique climatique suisse', [online] http://www.bafu.admin.ch/dokumentation/fokus/10001/10136/index.html?lang=fr (accessed 13 September 2011) FOEN (2008), 'Quelle est la quantit de CO2 mise par la consommation d'un kilowattheure (kWh) d'lectricit en Suisse?', published 7 September, [online] http://www.bafu.admin.ch/klima/09608/index.html?lang=fr&download=NHzLpZeg7t,lnp6I0NTU042l 2Z6ln1ae2IZn4Z2qZpnO2Yuq2Z6gpJCFeX19hGym162epYbg2c_JjKbNoKSn6A-- (accessed 17 August 2011) Publications by SCRIS (Vaud cantonal service for statistical research and information) SCRIS (2000a), 'Eysins - Fiche communale - Recensement fdral de la population 2000', [online] http://www.scris.vd.ch/Default.aspx?DomID=831 (accessed 25 August 2011) SCRIS (2000b), 'Canton de Vaud en 2000', [online] document 'RFP2000_Fiche_Vaud.pdf' http://www.scris.vd.ch/Default.aspx?DomID=2617, (accessed 25 August 2011) SCRIS (2008), 'Numerus-01-2008_Mobilite', http://www.scris.vd.ch/Default.aspx?DomID=2435 (accessed 25 August 2011) SCRIS (2011), 'Population rsidante permanente par commune et origine, Vaud, 1950-2010', [online] http://www.scris.vd.ch/Default.aspx?DomId=33 (accessed 25 August 2011) Publications by SFOE (Swiss Federal Office of Energy) SFOE (2011a), 'Statistique globale suisse de lnergie 2010', [online] http://www.bfe.admin.ch/themen/00526/00541/00542/00631/index.html?lang=fr&dossier_id=0076 3 (accessed 8 September 2011) SFOE (2011b), 'Aperu de la consommation d'nergie en suisse au cours de lanne 2010', [online] http://www.bfe.admin.ch/themen/00526/00541/00542/00631/index.html?lang=fr&dossier_id=0086 7 (accessed 8 September 2011) SFOE (2011c), 'Statistique suisse de llectricit 2010', [online] http://www.bfe.admin.ch/themen/00526/00541/00542/00630/index.html?lang=fr&dossier_id=0076 5 (accessed 12 September 2011) The Open University (2007), T206 Energy for a sustainable future, Book 4, 'Energy saving in buildings', Milton Keynes, The Open University. The Open University (2006), T206 Energy for a sustainable future, DVD 2, 'European Sustainable Energy Futures', Milton Keynes, The Open University. Warren, J. (2007), Managing Transport Energy, Oxford, University Press/Milton Keynes, The Open University.

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WWF (undated), 'Transport: rail et route', [online] http://www.wwf.ch/fr/lewwf/notremission/climat/savoir/railetroute/ (Accessed 24 August 2011)

Bibliography, further reading

Some background reading relating to the topic, that I found useful, but does not appear in the references: FSO (2011), ' Swiss Tourism in Figures 2010: Structure and Industry Data', [online] http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/en/index/news/publikationen.html?publicationID=4445 (accessed 1 September 2011) useful in order to tackle emissions linked with leisure transportation within and outside Switzerland. http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/Topics/c02emissions.html international comparisons (NB: data dates from 2008). useful to make

Acknowledgments
I would like to thank the following persons: Mr Menthonnex, statistician at SCRIS, for his guiding on statistics reading and his updated information on the village of Eysins. My husband, Jrme Bachelard, for our useful discussions on the viability of proposed measures. Bernard Bachelard, for sharing his knowledge on Eysins and his understanding of future trends. Werner Rickli, for his explanations and figures on the PAC sytem that he installed some years ago in his house in Eysins. Jacqueline Bachelard, for sharing information on her household electricity consumption.

Appendix
Appendix A: details about assumptions and calculations (document Appendix_A_final.doc) Appendix B: appraisal of proposed measures (document Appendix_B_final.doc)

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