Académique Documents
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Table of Contents
I. Key Findings ................................................................................................................ 1 II. Scanning Product ........................................................................................................ 2 III. SWOT Analysis .......................................................................................................... 5 IV. Indicator Analysis ....................................................................................................... 8 V. Geospatial Analysis .................................................................................................. 12 VI. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses ......................................................................... 15 VII. Response ................................................................................................................ 18 VIII. Evaluation .............................................................................................................. 20 IX. Contact Information.................................................................................................. 21
I. Key Findings
Requirement:
Descriptive: What is the nature of methamphetamine problems that currently exist in Northwestern Pennsylvania? o What circumstances make methamphetamine production more prevalent in some counties/towns over other areas? o How have law enforcement techniques to prevent and combat methamphetamine problems evolved and have they been successful? Estimative: What will likely happen with the methamphetamine problems in Northwestern Pennsylvania over the next 24 months? o Will methamphetamine production decrease due to regulations on Sudafed (pseudoephedrine)?
Findings:
Methamphetamine problems are unlikely to increase in Northwestern Pennsylvania in the next 24 months. Law enforcement has increased its pressure through creating a Meth Task Force and targeting pill shoppers. Even with the decrease in local production, methamphetamine remains a problem because of trafficking into the area from Ohio and Mexico. o It is likely that the Northwestern Pennsylvania Meth Task Force will continue to shut down clandestine meth laboratories. Strengths and opportunities exist with the regulation of precursor chemicals and a program to track its sales. Weaknesses and threats occur with the nature of meth labs and their movement into other jurisdictions. o It is likely that precursor chemical regulations have caused changes in the manufacturing of methamphetamine. Indicator analysis suggests that changes have occurred in the means of which producers acquire pseudoephedrine. While the characteristics of clandestine meth labs remain the same, the location has moved from urban to rural areas, and some production has even shifted to rolling meth labs. The production difficulties resulting from these regulations have also affected the price and purity of methamphetamine. o It is highly likely that Erie County will remain a hot spot for methamphetamine manufacturing and trafficking in Northwestern Pennsylvania. The hot point in Albion, as well as increase in manufacturing methods with the rolling lab in the City of Erie, suggests that methamphetamine activities are on the rise in Erie County. The number of seized labs between 2001 and 2006 increased in Erie County, despite the decline in all other Northwestern Pennsylvania counties.
Northwestern Pennsylvania continues to suffer from methamphetamine problems despite indications of the drugs retreat. Local drug manufacturers and outlaw motorcycle gangs are responsible for the majority of methamphetamine production within the area, as well as acting as the primary transporters for methamphetamine from other sources, such as Mexico. The location of methamphetamine labs varies from private residences to motel rooms, and they create extreme safety risks due to their explosive and flammable nature. Law enforcement has increased their efforts to combat the methamphetamine problems by establishing the Northwestern Pennsylvania Meth Task Force.
Discussion:
Methamphetamine remains a problem for Northwestern Pennsylvania despite signs of the drug being in retreat. Domestic methamphetamine production has decreased significantly due to increased law enforcement pressures, public awareness and federal regulations on precursor chemicals. On the contrary, methamphetamine production in Mexico has increased to levels sufficient to offset domestic production decreases, maintain distribution in already established markets and facilitate further expansion of the drug.1 Besides the methamphetamine that originates from Mexico, local traffickers manufacture and produce much of the methamphetamine in Northwestern Pennsylvania. Rural areas are the most popular sites for small laboratories due to reduced risk of detection.2 The location of methamphetamine laboratories in Northwestern Pennsylvania vary from private residences to hunting cabins and motel rooms; in one instance in Venango and Mercer counties, authorities located an underground lab in a man-made cave, hidden in a hillside near the perpetrators residence.3
Meth Task Force members inspect the area of an underground meth lab build in a man-made cave. http://tinyurl.com/3bsasms
Local independent dealers and outlaw motorcycle gangs, such as Breed, Hells Angels, Pagans and Warlocks, are responsible for most of the production of methamphetamine in Northwestern Pennsylvania.4 These groups use multiple production methods including iodine/red phosphorus, Birch reduction, and phenyl-2propanone methods. These groups are the principal wholesale level and retail-level distributors of methamphetamine. At the retail level, producers package the methamphetamine in folded pages of pornographic magazines, small plastic bags, or the cellophane from cigarette packs.5 Distribution of the drug occurs at private residences, hotel rooms, bars, and occasionally at public parking areas of shopping centers and malls. Even with these wholesale level and retail-level distributors, most of the methamphetamine distribution involves gram and ounce quantities.6
Local independent dealers and outlaw motorcycle gangs not only produce methamphetamine, but also act as the primary transporters for methamphetamine coming from other sources such as Mexico, California and Florida.7 These groups transport the drug on major highways in private vehicles, rented vehicles, commercial bus luggage, or they ship the methamphetamine into Pennsylvania via express mail and parcel services.8 The production of methamphetamine causes multiple safety concerns, creating toxic waste that is a threat to law enforcement personnel, emergency response teams, and the environment. On average, methamphetamine laboratories produce five to six pounds of waste for every pound of methamphetamine.9 Manufacturers typically dump the waste in the local area, which in return contaminates the group water and kills vegetation. Cleanup of methamphetamine laboratories, which federal law mandates, can cost between $5,000 to $6,000 USD for a single site.10 Besides creating a toxic byproduct, the production of methamphetamine contaminates carpet, appliances, furniture, clothing, drywall, insulation, and the building in which the production is taking place.11 Methamphetamine labs are highly explosive and flammable; therefore, they pose a threat to any nearby properties and law enforcement officers. If the methamphetamine lab is located in a residence, children often suffer burns, respiratory problems, toxic blood levels, neglect and abuse.12
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Law enforcement has increased their efforts to combat the growing methamphetamine problem in Northwestern Pennsylvania. At a summit in 2005, local law enforcement personnel and prosecutors identified the local methamphetamine problems and devised a plan to combat such problems, resulting in the creation of the Pennsylvania Attorney Generals Meth Task Force. This task force includes permanently assigned The graph depicts the number of methamphetamine narcotics agents from the Attorney General's labs that have exploded during the various years in Pennsylvania. Office, Pennsylvania State Police troopers, http://tinyurl.com/3p35c5d and a Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) special agent that acts as a liaison to assist in investigations. Within its first year of operations, the Meth Task Force raided 28 methamphetamine labs in Northwestern Pennsylvania.13
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http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs11/18862/meth.htm http://www.nationalmethcenter.org/STATES-PA.html 3 http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=3903 4 http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs6/6180/meth.htm 5 http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs6/6180/meth.htm 6 http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs6/6180/meth.htm 7 http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htm 8 http://www.methresources.gov/pa.html 9 http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htm 10 http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htm 11 http://www.eriealert.com/drug_tf.html 12 http://www.eriealert.com/drug_tf.html 13 http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=1259
III. SWOT Analysis Meth Task Force Likely To Successfully Combat Clandestine Laboratories
Executive Summary: It is likely that the Northwestern Pennsylvania Meth Task Force will continue to shut down clandestine meth laboratories over the next 24 months. Strengths and opportunities exist with the regulation of precursor chemicals and a program to track its sales. Weaknesses and threats occur with the nature of meth labs and their movement into other jurisdictions. Discussion: SWOT analysis indicated that the Northwestern Pennsylvania Meth Task Force has strengths in its training programs provided to local police agencies. The task force offers training in chemical field-testing that includes the use of drug field testing kits, allowing law enforcement officers to quickly and easily identify suspected methamphetamine encountered in the field. Clandestine laboratory site training, offered by the task force, teaches local police how to recognize the signs of a possible meth lab while on patrol.1 These training programs offer a means of combating the threat of meth labs caused by their explosive nature.2 Another strength of the task force is its increased information sharing via electronic bulletins. The Attorney General's Office publishes these Northwestern Pennsylvania Methamphetamine Initiative Bulletins regarding meth activity, with the purpose of the bulletin to provide information about recent seizures and arrests and upcoming training. All local, state and federal law enforcement officers and prosecutors in Northwestern Pennsylvania receive the bulletin, ensuring that all parties are up to date on the most recent meth activity.3 The task force improved its own tactics to combat meth labs through aiding in the creation of the Meth Hunter software. The program analyzes purchase logs from pharmacies and identifies patterns in order to pinpoint pill shoppers.4 The combination of this program, along with the opportunity produced via the pseudoephedrine regulation from the Combat Methamphetamine Epidemic Act (CMEA), allows the task force to target a new member in the methamphetamine organization: the pill shopper.5 Pill shoppers pose a threat as they not only purchase excessive amounts of pseudoephedrine, but also commit crimes, such as thefts of both drugs and identities.6
An opportunity is present through the regulation of pseudoephedrine sales via the CMEA. This ingredient, commonly found in cold medications such as Sudafed, is a precursor chemical for methamphetamine production: the CMEA mandates the collection of information on every sale of this chemical as well as the purchasers information, allowing for the tracking of this methamphetamine ingredient. Independent meth dealers commonly use methods that utilize
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pseudoephedrine, but outlaw motorcycle gangs prefer a production method that involves phenyl-2-propanone (P2P) as the main ingredient.7 P2P is a highly regulated chemical, providing an opportunity for tracking the sales of the precursor just as the CMEA tracks pseudoephedrine.8 The community and its members have provided opportunities for the task force in various forms. A local company, DAGIR Co., developed the Meth Hunter program now utilized by the task force.9 Mercyhurst College has been the site for multiple forums, including the forum that created the task force.10 Mercyhurst also offers student interns to the task force to help with data input and link analysis that would otherwise require an additional paid staff member.11 Other threats have arisen from the efficiency of the Northwestern Pennsylvania Meth Task Force. Clandestine labs have moved over the state border into Ohio in order to avoid the increased pressure of the task force. This moves the labs out of the task forces jurisdiction, making it difficult to combat the meth organization in its early stages of production. Massive law enforcement layoffs in Ohio have increased this threat, as there is a limited effort to combat these meth labs.12 Information sharing with police agencies in Ohio may alleviate the initial workload that the police agencies may not originally have the manpower to conduct. Due to the manufacturing of the drug out of state, the meth is trafficked into Pennsylvania. This poses as a weakness for the Northwestern Pennsylvania Meth Task Force focuses the majority of their tactics and strategies on combating methamphetamine organization via the production stage.13 Combating methamphetamine at all stages of the process, such as transport and distribution, may help mitigate this issue. The Northwestern Pennsylvania Meth Task Force is experiencing more activity with the increased movement and production of methamphetamine in the area. Because of this increased activity, the task force has exhausted its funding midyear in the past, ceasing any crime busting for that year.14 Another weakness to the task force is the expense endured from shutting down a meth lab; because of the toxic waste created by methamphetamine production, federal mandates the clean-up of meth lab sites, which can cost anywhere from $5,000 to $60,000 USD for a single site.15 Analytic Confidence: Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. The analyst used one structured method, SWOT Analysis. Source reliability is medium and source corroboration exists. The analysts expertise is low and the analyst worked alone. Subject complexity is medium and the time available for the task was adequate.
Strengths 1. Chemical field-testing 2. Clandestine laboratory site training 3. Increased information sharing through electronic bulletins 4. Meth Hunter Program
Weaknesses 1. Lack of funding for task force 2. High cost of meth lab cleanup 3. Limited resources to limit meth trafficked into PA
Opportunities 1. Pseudoephedrine regulations via CMEA 2005 2. Main ingredients such as P2P (Phenyl-2-Propanone) are highly regulated 3. Added efforts from community members (Mercyhurst College and local company DAGIR Co.)
Threats 1. Explosive nature of clandestine meth labs 2. Production moved over the state border into Ohio 3. Massive law enforcement layoffs in Ohio 4. Pill shoppers committing thefts (drugs and IDs)
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http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=1259 http://www.eriealert.com/drug_tf.html 3 http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=1259 4 http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11400&type=News 5 http://www.stargazette.com/article/20110305/NEWS01/103050337/Cold-medication-sales-easy-money 6 http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11398 7 http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htm 8 http://www.nevadaobserver.com/Reading%20Room%20Documents/Organized%20Crime%20in%20Pennsylvania %20(1988).htm 9 http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11400&type=News 10 http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=1259 11 http://intel.mercyhurst.edu/content/david_grabelski 12 http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11398 13 http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11400&type=News 14 http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/s_448347.html 15 http://www.justice.gov/ndic/pubs0/670/meth.htm
IV. Indicator Analysis Precursor Chemical Regulations Likely Cause Changes in Methamphetamine Manufacturing
Executive Summary: It is likely that precursor chemical regulations have caused changes in the manufacturing of methamphetamine. Indicator analysis suggests that changes have occurred in the means of which producers acquire pseudoephedrine. While the characteristics of clandestine meth labs remain the same, the location has moved from urban to rural areas, and some production has even shifted to rolling meth labs. The production difficulties resulting from these regulations have also affected the price and purity of methamphetamine. Discussion: Indicator analysis suggests that the manufacturing of methamphetamine has altered since the implementation of the Combat Methamphetamine Epidemic Act in September 2006.1 Before the government enacted the CMEA, an individual purchasing mass amount of pseudoephedrine at a single pharmacy was an indicator of methamphetamine manufacturing.2 The act has altered this indicator to now being multiple individuals who purchase the allotted amount of pseudoephedrine at multiple pharmacies in the area.3 Another indicator that has evolved from the enactment of the CMEA is an increase in the theft of pseudoephedrine. Due to the inconvenience of needing multiple purchasers, some methamphetamine producers have resorted to stealing pseudoephedrine.4 The theft of ID cards, such as licenses and passports, has also increased as individuals can purchase pseudoephedrine under these false identities.5 Although the CMEA has not changed the indicators of a clandestine meth lab, the geographic location of these labs has changed over the year. Urban areas were the common location for meth labs, as it allowed easy access to customers.6 Rural or secluded areas are now the most likely location for these clandestine labs as it allows producers to have a decreased risk of detection caused by the laboratorys pungent odors and a decreased law enforcement presence.7 Because of the odors and obvious indicators that correspond with meth labs, more producers have chosen to use a rolling meth lab, characterized by producing meth in the truck on a vehicle.8 An indicator of this method of production is the presence of plastic bottles with rubber tubing of the side of major roadways. These bottles contain the waste product of producing methamphetamine.9
Lastly, the CMEA has altered the methamphetamine drug itself. Because of the increased risk, high demand, and low supply of precursor chemicals, the price of methamphetamine has significantly increased. A quarter gram of methamphetamine (referred to as a hit) used to cost $25 USD, but since the CMEA, the price is almost ten times the price of gold.10 The restrictions on precursor chemicals have affected the purity of meth with a decline in drug purity from 70% in March 2006 (before the CMEA) to 43% in June 2007.11 Analytic Confidence: Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. The analyst used one structured method, Indicator Analysis. Source reliability is medium and source corroboration exists. The analysts expertise is low and the analyst worked alone. Subject complexity is medium and the time available for the task was adequate.
Before 2006
1 3 1 2 1 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 3
After 2006
3 1 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 3
Comment: The indicators listed in the chart above are ranked on a scale from 1 to 3, with 1 being low and 3 being high. * Denotes indicator of clandestine methamphetamine laboratory 10
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http://www.whitehousedrugpolicy.gov/publications/pdf/Pseudoephedrine.pdf http://health.howstuffworks.com/wellness/drugs-alcohol/meth4.htm 3 http://www.stargazette.com/article/20110305/NEWS01/103050337/Cold-medication-sales-easy-money 4 http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11398 5 http://www.wicu12.com/news/index.vnss?newsid=11398 6 http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/doj/dea/product/meth/threat.htm#labs 7 http://methlabhomes.com/2008/09/meth-lab-statistics-pennsylvania/ 8 http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=6048 9 http://www.portlandonline.com/police/index.cfm?c=38594 10 http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/meth/faqs/ 11 http://www.justice.gov/dea/concern/meth_prices_purity.html
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V. Geospatial Analysis Erie County Highly Likely to Remain a Hot Spot for Methamphetamine
Executive Summary: It is highly likely that Erie County will remain a hot spot for methamphetamine manufacturing and trafficking in Northwestern Pennsylvania. The hot point in Albion, as well as increase in manufacturing methods with the rolling lab in the City of Erie, suggests that methamphetamine activities are on the rise in Erie County. The number of seized labs between 2001 and 2006 increased in Erie County, despite the decline in all other Northwestern Pennsylvania counties. Discussion: Geospatial analysis, specifically hotspot analysis, suggests a hot point in the town of Albion. In March 2008, authorities dismantled the largest methamphetamine organization in Northwestern Pennsylvania in Operation Family Cook-Out. James and Ronald Frey headed this large-scale organization out of their Albion residences where they manufactured, packaged and sold methamphetamine.1 Also, in April 2010, authorities arrested an Albion couple constructing a functional methamphetamine lab in their home.2 Besides the hot point in Albion, hotspot analysis indicates a hot spot in Erie County. In February 2007, authorities arrested twelve suspected drug dealers accused of trafficking methamphetamine into Erie County from California.3 The trend of manufacturing methamphetamine within the county continues to evolve with new manufacturing methods. In March of 2011, authorities discovered a rolling methamphetamine lab during a traffic stop in the City of Erie. The three suspects had been driving back and forth between Ripley, New York and Erie on Interstate 90, producing methamphetamine in the trunk of their vehicle and disposing the waste product on the side of the road.4 Hotspot analysis shows a dispersion of methamphetamine labs in the remaining counties of Northwestern Pennsylvania. In September 2008, authorities arrested twenty-three people in connection to a methamphetamine lab located in a man-made cave in Stoneboro, Venango County.5 The Meth Task Force arrested five people in May 2010 suspected of operating a meth lab in an apartment complex in Titusville, Crawford County.6 During the same month,
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authorities arrested a Venango County man for manufacturing methamphetamine in his Oil City home.7 Chart mapping also suggests an increase in the methamphetamine activity in Erie County. The counties of Crawford and Venango peaked in 2004 with the most labs seized (fourteen and eleven labs respectively), and then declined into 2006.8 Production in Warren and Forest counties also declined in 2006, with their peaks at seven and five labs in 2005.9 Erie County did not decline leading into the year 2006, but rather had an influx of labs from nine labs in 2005 to twenty-two labs in 2006.10 Analytic Confidence: Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. The analyst used one structured method, Geospatial Analysis. Source reliability is medium and source corroboration exists. The analysts expertise is low and the analyst worked alone. Subject complexity is medium and the time available for the task was adequate. Annex 1: Hotspot Analysis
Comment: Red dots and/or paths indicate the location of a meth lab.
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Comment: The chart map shows the number of meth labs seized from 2001 to 2006. Legend: Erie County = red Crawford County = blue Venango County = green Warren County = purple Forest County = orange
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http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=3514 http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=5208 3 http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=2248 4 http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=6048 5 http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=3903 6 http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=5316 7 http://www.attorneygeneral.gov/press.aspx?id=5310 8 http://www.titusvillecityhall.com/methstats.htm 9 http://www.titusvillecityhall.com/methstats.htm 10 http://www.titusvillecityhall.com/methstats.htm
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VI. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Meth Problems Unlikely to Increase in Next 24 Months
Executive Summary: Methamphetamine problems are unlikely to increase in Northwestern Pennsylvania in the next 24 months. Law enforcement has increased its pressure through creating a Meth Task Force and targeting pill shoppers. Even with the decrease in local production, methamphetamine remains a problem because of trafficking into the area from Ohio and Mexico. Discussion: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) indicates that chances are better than even that methamphetamine problems will not increase in the next 24 months. Overall, there has been a decrease in domestic methamphetamine production due to increased law enforcement pressure and public awareness.1 The creation of the Northwestern Pennsylvania Meth Task Force has thus far been a success with the group seizing 28 labs within its first year of existence.2 The Combat Methamphetamine Epidemic Act has contributed to the decrease in production; after the implementation of this act that put regulations on pseudoephedrine, methamphetamine labs in Northwestern Pennsylvania experienced a 19% decrease.3 Due to these regulations on precursor chemicals, the means of methamphetamine production have altered with the introduction of individuals whose sole purpose is to purchase pseudoephedrine. With this alteration also comes a change in law enforcement strategy that now focuses on searching for pill shoppers.4 The Northwestern Pennsylvania Meth Task Force utilizes a program called Meth Hunter that tracks all pseudoephedrine sales and purchasers, and identifies any patterns or unusual activity that could indicate purchases for methamphetamine production.5 Even with law enforcement efforts, methamphetamine continues to move eastward into the state.6 The availability of methamphetamine is higher in northwestern parts than compared to the rest of Pennsylvania. Specifically, there are increasing levels of methamphetamine production in Crawford, Erie, and Venango counties.7 The Meth Task Force has continued to combat much of the local production, but that has not eliminated the methamphetamine problem. Production and trafficking from Mexico has increased, and at such levels that can offset the domestic production decrease to maintain a steady supply of methamphetamine.8 Local production has moved across the state border into Ohio where law enforcement pressure is low; this allows production to occur outside of the Meth Task Forces jurisdiction.9
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Analytic Confidence: Analytic confidence for this assessment is medium. The analyst used one structured method, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). Source reliability is medium and source corroboration exists. The analysts expertise is low and the analyst worked alone. Subject complexity is medium and the time available for the task was adequate. Annex 1: ACH
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IX. Contact Information Please contact the analyst with any questions or comments:
Name: Michelle Clemens Email: mcleme61@lakers.mercyhurst.edu Phone: (814) 824-3888
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