NVTC Newsletter071109

NextVIEW Traders Club Weekly Newsletter
Published by NextView Sdn. Bhd. (574271-D) Ph +6 03 27139388 Fax +6 03 27139366

Add B-9-12, Block B, Level 9, Megan Avenue II, 12 Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Newsletter for the week ending 12 November 2007
THIS WEEK’S CONTENTS:

Page
1. Investment/Trading Related Articles:

Weekly Food for Thoughts …… 2
by YH Wong, BH Global Advisers Sdn Bhd
2. Market Commentaries
i) Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) …….. 5
Additional KLCI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 6
ii) Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) …….. 7
Additional STI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 8
iii) Thailand SET Index (SETI) …….. 9
Additional SETI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 10
iv) Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI) …….. 11
Additional HSI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 12
v) Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) …….. 13
Additional DJI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 14
3. Regional Market Forecast Group …….. 15
4. Regional Traders Education Events …….. 16
Disclaimer and Copyright …….. 20
© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 1

1. Trading/Investment Related Articles:
Weekly Food for Thoughts
By YH Wong, BH Global Advisers Sdn Bhd
Well, no one would blame you if today's financial headlines made you a skittish investor. At the time
of writing, the US dollar dived to a fresh 26-year low against Sterling, which breached the $2.10
barrier, while it hit another record low against the Euro, which went above $1.47 for the first time.
Gold meanwhile hit US$846 an ounce, while oil went above US$98 a barrel. US stocks dropped
heavily overnight and unsurprisingly, Asian markets fell rather sharply this morning as investors
worried about the extent of fallout from the global credit crisis. More interestingly, Fed Chairman
Ben Bernanke finally acknowledged that the US economy is appreciably slowing.
We're not out of the woods yet but the financial whiz kids especially those who draw hefty paychecks
from their employers who hold lots of interests in the booming equity markets in Asia, will probably
tell us that in any worst case scenario, what we are going to have is a "positive" bubble in the region.
Also, I don't think we have been increasingly dismissive with our Perma-Bull friends. In the real
world, one has to balance greed with fear. And the challenge is even more complicated by the fact
that humans always make mistakes during both good and bad times. Yes, that includes Warren
Buffett who made losses in previous years. Fortunately, he was diversified enough in his portfolio.
Talking about risk, we think there is some time before the China bubble finally implodes. The China
stock market still has an upside bias although volatility is likely to be higher with sharp corrections
along the way. We need to watch investment flows very carefully for guidance about how to proceed.
China is desperate to maintain double-digit GDP and a rising stock market going into 2008.
While some of our critics seem to be having a hard time figuring out why the oil price is not trading
at US$30, in this week's edition of the Weekly Thoughts, let us review briefly and selectively our
analysis on the global economy and markets which have been published in recent weeks for our
clients. Enjoy the read.
September 24, 2007:

The Fed's aggressive half-point rate cut to 4.75% knocked the US dollar below the key 80-level,
which was a level that the Greenspan Fed tried to defend in 2005 until Bernanke took over the job.
It's been on a downward slide ever since Ben got control of the US money printing press. We
suggest to close several trades on Euro/dollar for a huge profit although we believe the ECB is
expected to accept a Euro rally to $1.45, to help shield the Euro zone from the upward spiraling
costs of crude oil and other key industrial commodities. For investors with cash, we suggest to take
another look at existing profits when oil hits US$85 for a review.
October 2, 2007:
Considering the troubled times financial markets are going through, we continue to suggest that
investors should hold on to their existing strategies and those with ample cash should consider our
existing range of Asian equity strategies as the Asian bubble increasingly builds up for the coming
quarters. We have moved to higher speculative positions on Hong Kong in recent weeks betting on
further US rate cuts.

October 4, 2007:
A bad employment number might trigger an initial knee-jerk selling spree, but bargain hunters
looking for another aggressive Fed rate cut on Oct 31st could swoop into the marketplace, to buy on
pullbacks to as low as 13,600, where strong horizontal support is seen. Longer term, the most
expedient method to lift US stocks would be a dollar devaluation which also means an incredible
opportunity in the commodities sector. Our reading on the US dollar will influence our views on the
gold trades. Although sentiments remain bullish on global equities, volatility will likely increase as
leveraged bettings "insured" by the Fed and Bank of Japan are slowly back into the picture.
October 9, 2007:
Perceptions are important. The Fed has started to play mind games with investors. So far, it shown
its willingness to sacrifice the US dollar in order to boost the US economy and stock markets, but it
also wants to avoid a crash in the US dollar. Thus, the Fed's Donald Kohn on October 5th, tried to
cast some doubt in the minds of traders, about the certainty of another Fed rate cut. And with big
profits sitting on the table, uncertainty leads to selling, and profit taking. We wonder whether the
Friday's surprising US employment report has been "modified" to suit the strategy of the poker
players to make sure that there is more uncertainty over the Fed's next move on interest rates.
October 16, 2007:

In the short-term, our technical analysis points that the Relative Strength has been making lower
tops as the US stock market has been moving higher since last October. This is a negatively
divergent condition that investors should watch in the coming days as it depicts higher risks
conditions developing. Meanwhile in the bigger picture, investors are confounded at the US equity
market's ability to continue to rally despite all of the negatives. How do they keep it going? The
equity markets, particularly in America, have never been more manipulated than they are now.
October 24, 2007:

Merrill Lynch & Co. (one of the big dogs on Wall Street) reported the biggest quarterly loss in its 93-
year history after $8.4 billion of writedowns, the most by any securities firm. However, US equities
bounced back supported by a major PPT's rescue operation overnight. At the same time, our screens
continue to indicate that Shanghai is looking toppy at the moment. Last week, the rise in crude oil
above US$85 per barrel might have broken the camel's back. Fed rate cuts could lead to yet another
US dollar devaluation and higher oil prices, creating havoc for the US stock markets. Our new long-
term target for oil is at US$128. The sharp decline in global stock markets, shaved -2% off our new
model portfolio to a net gain of +5% in the previous month.
October 28, 2007:

We have a short-term target at US$825 for gold. Oil price should touch US$95 while the Euro should
be targeting the 1.47 area. Rising stocks in Asia carry higher risk from the risk and reward point of
view. Equity investors should have short term profit targets and have exposure to commodities as a
hedge.
October 31, 2007:

Bern Bernanke didn't surprise the markets with a larger cut but we believe that the Fed is going for
more rate cuts in the future. The Fed probably has a pretty good idea what the next problem will
turn out to be. Also within Fed governors' individual speeches since September, we see repeated
references to shrinking liquidity, growing credit problems, etc.

November 2, 2007:
Our short-term indicators remain bearish for US equities. Ben Bernanke will cut rates again in
December and Euro is looking at 1.50 while oil should touch US$100 in the coming weeks. Gold
could undergo a correction before going higher again above US$820+. We suggest buying on dips
approach for the yellow metal as the Fed will cut interest rates again. The British pound is on an
upward course, due to a widening interest rate advantage over the US dollar. Pullbacks in the pound
should be limited to $2.06, where bargain hunters would swarm into the high yielding currency.
November 4, 2007:
Global monetization is effectively what the planet is doing in order to cheapen its debt, and to
increase GDP (Grossly Deceptive Product). Inflation is being used as a tool to increase GDP and
reduce the value of debt that is being serviced. That is the whole idea behind monetization. The
problem with monetization is that when you start down that road, if the institutions who are pushing
it have themselves become weakened, you have to be careful because there is no way ultimately to
control the inflation. Despite our gloomy outlook for the US dollar, we don't expect a crash over the
coming months. We don't favor bonds as central banks look likely to print more money to cope with
rising oil.
YH Wong is Head of Strategy with BH Global Advisers Sdn. Bhd., a licensed

investment advisory firm. You may reach him or his team at (603) 2166 8896.

2. Market Commentaries
i) Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI)
Technical Analysis as of 12/11/2007
Basic Price information

Close: 1,382.35
Trend Analysis
MACD (13.2047)
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is bearish. The momentum of the trend is strong.
Moving Averages 10-day(1,401.6990), 30-day(1,379.5140), 60-day(1,330.4563), 100-day(1,339.6014).

SHORT-Term Trend: Very bullish
LONG-Term Trend: Very bullish
Support and Resistance Analysis

Immediate Support: 1,339.3600
Longer term Support: 1,266.6000

Immediate Resistance: 1,423.8101
Longer term Resistance: 1,423.8101
100 day SMA Support: 1,339.6014

Stochastic(69.4426) is currently in neutral zone and is getting lower.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bullish Candlestick pattern: No bullish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Bearish Candlestick pattern: No bearish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Bar Chart Patterns

Bar Chart Bullish Price Reversal Pattern: No bar chart bullish price reversal detected for the last 3 days
Bar Chart Bearish Price Reversal Pattern : No bar chart bearish price reversal detected for the last 3 days
Stochastic
Stochastic Bullish Price Reversal : No bullish reversal in the last 2 days.
Stochastic Bearish Price Reversal : No bearish reversal in the last 2 days.
Volatility Analysis
Short term volatility: The 3-period ATR (21.3323) has increased therefore price action is more volatile
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are expanding therefore price action is more volatile
Volume Analysis
Volume: 67,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 62,367 shares.
Volume strength is moderate. The On Balance Volume is declining, indicating distribution of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________
Additional KLCI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView
Technical rebound expected
Asian markets including Kuala Lumpur took a plunge today (Monday) after a steep fall in the US
market. The KLCI tested the KLCI support level at 1,385 and closed at 1382.35 after making a low
of 1379.39. It is currently right above the short term 30-day moving average level. The averages
are still increasing and therefore the up trend is still up. The momentum indicator, RSI is showing
bearish divergence on the up trend which means that there is a weakness in the up trend
momentum.
With price near the short term support level, the KLCI is expected to rebound upwards but because
of weak momentum, the rebound may just act as a support and the KLCI shall move sideways.
Short term support level is at slightly lower this week at 1,380 while resistance is at 1,412. The KLCI
is expected to trade within this range.

ii) Singapore Straits Times Index (STI)

Close: 3,511.12
Trend Analysis
MACD (-20.4866)
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is very bearish. The momentum of the trend is
strong.
Moving Averages 10-day(3,707.9890), 30-day(3,758.6470), 60-day(3,612.9370), 100-day(3,572.3291).

SHORT-Term Trend: Very bearish
LONG-Term Trend: Very bearish


100 day SMA Resistance: 3,572.3291
Stochastic(10.4862) is currently oversold and is getting lower.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bar Chart Patterns

Stochastic
Volatility Analysis
Volume Analysis
Volume: 258,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 240,600 shares.
market.
________________________________________________________
Additional STI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView
STI near 50% retracement support level
On a week to week basis, the STI falls about 200 points or 5.4% following dismal performances in
the US and China markets. The STI closed 3,511.12 after making a low of 3,483.18. The STI has
gone below all short to long term 30 to 90 day moving averages. The long term trend is still up but a
reversal is happening on the short term trend. The STI is also near the 50% retracement level at
3,431 from the mid August up trend rally. While market is bearish, the long tail on the candlestick
chart today shows some buying support.
The STI may rebound from here or test the 50% retracement level before it rebounds upwards. With
weak momentum, the rebound is expected to be short and the STI may move into a sideway market.
Support is at the 50% retracement level of 3431 while resistance is at 3,690 to 3,700 level.

iii) Thailand SET Index

Close: 861.93
Trend Analysis
MACD (4.6594)
Moving Averages 10-day(886.0660), 30-day(878.6086), 60-day(843.3729), 100-day(835.0009).

SHORT-Term Trend: Bearish

Immediate Support: 856.5600
Longer term Support: 790.4900
Immediate Resistance: 924.7000
Longer term Resistance: 924.7000
100 day SMA Support: 835.0009

200 day SMA Support: 766.6335
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bar Chart Patterns

Bar Chart Bullish Price Reversal Pattern: Island Reversal UP was detected 2 days ago
Stochastic
Volatility Analysis
Volume Analysis
Volume: 145,760,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 196,644,592 shares.
market.
________________________________________________________
Additional SETI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView
SETI may rebound on this support level
Like any other Asian markets, the Thailand Stock Exchange is not spared with the steep down fall of
the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday. The SETI closed at 861.93 today, after testing the
support level of 856. The SETI was at 894.34 just a week ago (Friday’s close). The SETI is now
below the short term 30 day moving average but above the longer term 60 and 90 day average. The
short and long term trend is still up as there is still no decline even in the short term average.
However, the momentum indicator RSI is indicating a very weak trend and therefore the SETI may
face heavy resistance. The SETI may rebound upwards because of the support level, but it may not
create a rally upwards because of strong resistance, which it may find at 880. Support level remains
at 856.

iv) Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Close: 27,665.73
Trend Analysis
MACD (359.5753)
Moving Averages 10-day(29,825.0762), 30-day(29,153.5723), 60-day(26,542.8477), 100-

day(24,910.1914).
SHORT-Term Trend: Bearish


Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bar Chart Patterns

Stochastic
Volatility Analysis
Short term volatility: The 3-period ATR (1,076.8257) has increased therefore price action is more volatile
Volume Analysis
Volume: 2,892,817,920 shares, 30-day average volume: 2,922,125,824 shares.
market.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Additional HSI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView
HSI short term trend is still up
The Hong Kong market fell steeply last week, shedding more than 4,000 points, or 12.5% in just
about 2 weeks. This steep correction is expected because the HSI has gone far above its average,
short and long term. This steep correction has cause the HSI to move below the short term 30-day
moving average at 29,150 level. The HSI closed at 27,665.73 on Monday. However, the correction
has not gone to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level which most of the other markets have
already penetrated. So the correction is not as bad as the other markets, relatively.
While short and long term trend is still up, the momentum of the trend is weak. The HSI may start
to rebound immediately or go a little lower to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 27,100
before making the rebound upwards. The rebound may not turn into a strong upward rally because
of the weak momentum. It may find resistance at 30,000, while support level is at the Fibonacci
retracement level at 27,100.

v) Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)

Close: 13,042.74
Trend Analysis
MACD (-122.8712)
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is very bearish. The momentum of the trend is
strong.
Moving Averages 10-day(13,556.9102), 30-day(13,797.5400), 60-day(13,597.7383), 100-

day(13,566.9063).
SHORT-Term Trend: Very bearish
LONG-Term Trend: Very bearish



Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bullish Candlestick pattern: Long Lower Shadow was detected yesterday
Bar Chart Patterns

Stochastic
Volatility Analysis
Short term volatility: The ATR has declined therefore price action is less volatile
Volume Analysis
Volume: 356,840,992 shares, 30-day average volume: 237,092,976 shares.
Volume strength is strong. The On Balance Volume is declining, indicating distribution of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Additional DJI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView
Sideway movement for DJI
The DJI shed about 1,100 points or 7.7% in about 1 month despite the Fed cutting interest rates to
support the financial market. However, write-off that results in loses by institutional funds have
caused the market to worry again about the credit market and rising commodity prices, particularly
crude oil. The DJI closed at 13,042.74 last Friday near the major trend support level is at 13,000.
Therefore, the trend is still up in the long term, but down in the short term.
At the current level, the DJI is expected to rebound upwards because it is near the support level.
The short term down trend resistance is at 13,600. With uncertainty and weak momentum, the DJI
is expected to trade within the price range of 13,000 to 13,600.

3. Regional Market Forecast Group
AVERAGE FORECAST SUMMARY as at 12 November 2007

KLCI STI HSI SETI
TODAY'S CLOSE 1,382.35 3,511.12 27,665.73 861.93
A Forecast (Direction) S S S S
Forecasted Weekly Trading Range
B Support (Low) 1362.5 3470.3 27025.0 849.0
C Resistance (High) 1420.5 3760.0 30250.0 900.0
A FORECAST DIRECTION
Benny Don Richard Li Xin Jing Steve AVG
1 KLCI S D S S S
2 STI S D S D S
3 HSI S S D S S
4 SETI S S D S S
B FORECAST RANGE (SUPPORT / WEEK LOW)

1 KLCI 1380.0 1370.0 1340.0 1360.0 1362.5
2 STI 3431.0 3500.0 3550.0 3400.0 3470.3
3 HSI 27100.0 27000.0 27000.0 27000.0 27025.0
4 SETI 856.0 850.0 840.0 850.0 849.0
C FORECAST RANGE (RESISTANCE / WEEK HIGH)

1 KLCI 1412.0 1435.0 1425.0 1410.0 1420.5
2 STI 3690.0 3900.0 3850.0 3600.0 3760.0
3 HSI 30000.0 31000.0 30000.0 30000.0 30250.0
4 SETI 880.0 920.0 900.0 900.0 900.0
Note:
Forecast Direction S = Sideway U = Up D = Down
Sideway market is considered if the index falls between 0.4% of the index close on Friday
Sideway Range Calculation Close Sideway Range
KLCI 1382.4 1376.8 to 1387.9
STI 3511.1 3497.1 to 3525.2
HSI 27665.7 27555.1 to 27776.4
SETI 861.9 858.5 to 865.4
Direction is based on next Fridays close. If next Friday's close is above the sideway range, direction is considered up
and vice versa for price below sideway range

4. Regional Traders Education Events this week
MALAYSIA

SINGAPORE

________________________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER AND COPYRIGHT NextView Sdn. Bhd. (574271-D) and NextView Traders Club (NVTC) are NOT a licensed
investment advisors. This publication, which is generally available to members of NVTC, falls under Media Advice provisions. These
analysis notes are based on our experience of applying technical analysis to the market and are designed to be used as a tutorial showing
how technical analysis can be applied to a chart example based on recent trading data. This newsletter is a tool to assist you in your
personal judgment. It is not designed to replace your Licensed Financial Consultant, your Stockbroker. It has been prepared without
regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs because readers come from diverse
backgrounds, with diverse objectives and financial situations. This information is of a general nature only so you should seek advice from
your broker or other investment advisors as appropriate before taking any action. The decision to trade and the method of trading is for
the reader alone to decide. The author, contributors and publisher expressly disclaim all and any liability to any person, whether the
purchase of this publication or not, in respect of anything and of the consequences of any thing done or omitted to be done by any such
person in reliance, whether whole or partial, upon the whole or any part of the contents of this publication. Neither NextView Sdn Bhd
(including offices in other countries) nor its officers, employees and agents, will be liable for any loss or damage incurred by any person
directly or indirectly as a result of reliance on the information contained in this publication. The information contained in this newsletter is
copyright and for the sole use of NVTC Members. It cannot be circulated to other readers without the permission of the publisher. This is
not a newsletter of stock tips. Case study trades are notional and analyzed in real time on a weekly basis. NextView Sdn Bhd does not
receive any commission or benefit from the trading activities undertaken by readers, or any benefit or fee from any of the stocks reviewed
in the newsletter. NextView Sdn Bhd is an independent financial education organization and research is supported by NVTC annual
membership fees.
OFFICES;
Head Office Malaysia: B-9-12, Block B, Level 9 Megan Avenue II, 12 Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Singapore: 5 Shenton Way,
#02-03/05 UIC Building, Singapore 068808. Thailand: The Millennia Tower, 18th Floor, Unit 1806, 62 Langsuan Road, Lumphini, Pathumwan Bangkok,
10330, Thailand. Hong Kong: Room B, 16/F, Crawford Tower, 99 Jervois Street, Sheung Wan, Hong Kong. China: 98 Liuhe Road, 16A GangLu
HuangPu Center Building, Shanghai 200001

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NextVIEW Traders Club Weekly Newsletter

Published by NextView Sdn. Bhd. (574271-D) Ph +6 03 27139388 Fax +6 03 27139366

Newsletter for the week ending 12 November 2007

THIS WEEK’S CONTENTS:

1. Investment/Trading Related Articles:

3. Regional Market Forecast Group …….. 15

4. Regional Traders Education Events …….. 16

Disclaimer and Copyright …….. 20

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 1

September 24, 2007:

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 2

October 16, 2007:

October 24, 2007:

October 28, 2007:

October 31, 2007:

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 3

YH Wong is Head of Strategy with BH Global Advisers Sdn. Bhd., a licensed

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 4

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(1,401.6990), 30-day(1,379.5140), 60-day(1,330.4563), 100-day(1,339.6014).

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 5

100 day SMA Support: 1,339.6014

Stochastic(69.4426) is currently in neutral zone and is getting lower.

Bar Chart Patterns

Additional KLCI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView

Technical rebound expected

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 6

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(3,707.9890), 30-day(3,758.6470), 60-day(3,612.9370), 100-day(3,572.3291).

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 7

Stochastic(10.4862) is currently oversold and is getting lower.

Bar Chart Patterns

Additional STI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView

STI near 50% retracement support level

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 8

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(886.0660), 30-day(878.6086), 60-day(843.3729), 100-day(835.0009).

Support and Resistance Analysis

100 day SMA Support: 835.0009

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 9

Stochastic(18.9546) is currently oversold and is getting lower.

Bar Chart Patterns

SETI may rebound on this support level

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 10

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(29,825.0762), 30-day(29,153.5723), 60-day(26,542.8477), 100-

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 11

Stochastic(8.5396) is currently oversold and is getting lower.

Bar Chart Patterns

Additional HSI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView

HSI short term trend is still up

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 12

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(13,556.9102), 30-day(13,797.5400), 60-day(13,597.7383), 100-

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 13

100 day SMA Resistance: 13,566.9063

Stochastic(9.0468) is currently oversold and is getting lower.

Bar Chart Patterns