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paints market with a 17% market share, is expected to benefit from the long-term steady demand in paints industry
Expect revenue and earnings CAGR of 19% and 20% over
FY11-13E, leading to a comfortable cash flow position; Rule out additional fund raising despite planned capex of Rs140bn
Increasing shift towards water-based paints to augur well for
Price Performance
(%) Absolute Rel. to Nifty
Source: Bloomberg
1M (3) 1
3M 19 21
6M 12M (5) 8 32 34
operating margins, not factored in margin expansion due to higher raw material cost; Expect margins at 10.4% in FY13E price of Rs 109/share, valuing it at 17.5x FY13E (30% discount to Asian Paints) EPS of Rs 6.2/share
103
26
92
14
81
70 Jun-10
Source: Bloomberg
Stock Details
Sector Bloomberg Equity Capital (Rs mn) Face Value(Rs) No of shares o/s (mn) 52 Week H/L Market Cap (Rs bn/USD mn) Daily Avg Volume (No of sh) Daily Avg Turnover (US$mn) Consumers BRGR@IN 692 2 346 123/73 34/756 165353 0.4
Pritesh Chheda, CFA pritesh.chheda@emkayglobal.com +91 22 6612 1273 Sweta Jain sweta.jain@emkayglobal.com +91 22 6624 2479
EBITDA (Core) 1,991 2,373 2,802 3,456 (%) 10.5 10.2 9.7 10.4
EPS APAT 1,204 1,501 1,733 2,153 (Rs) 3.5 4.3 5.0 6.2
Initiating Coverage
Berger Paints
Initiating Coverage
Company Background
Second largest paints company in India Berger Paints started operations in 1923 in a small unit in Kolkata as Hadfields India Ltd. The current promoters, the Dhingras , entered the company in 1991 after acquiring UB Groups stake in the company. Berger Paints is the second largest decorative paints company in the country. It derives almost ~80% of revenue from decorative paints and the balance from industrial paints -largely automotive and protective coatings. It has a wide variety of product portfolio including interior and exterior wall coatings as well as metal and wood paints. It has strong and well established brands like Berger Silk, Berger Rangoli, Berger Illusions, Berger Weather Coat, Jadoo Enamel, etc that span across mass to premium category of the market. It has eight manufacturing facilities with a total capacity of 306,000 MT across India and four facilities overseas. It has 82+ depots with a widespread distribution network of 14,000 dealers across the country. Berger Paints has six subsidiaries and two JVs located across geographies including Cyprus, Russia, Poland and Nepal. The company has undergone many change of hands - In 1947, it was acquired by British Paints (Holdings), UK, which renamed the company as British Paints (India). The UK company was then acquired by Celanese Corporation, which later sold the Indian company to Berger, Jenson Nicholson Ltd in 1969. In 1983, the company was rechristened as Berger Paints India and it started using the trade name of Berger. Management profile
Name Kuldeep Singh Dhingra Designation Chairman Remarks Mr. Dhingra, the Chairman, has been a director of the company since July, 1991. Mr. Dhingra is a graduate and promoter of the company and has a long standing experience in paints and related industries. Gurbachan Singh Dhingra Vice Chairman Mr. Dhingra has been the director of the company since 1993. He is a graduate and has considerable experience in the paint industry, especially in its technical aspects. Mr. Bose is a B.Tech (Chemical) from IIT, Kanpur & PGDM from IIM, Ahmedabad having over 36 years of work experience. He started his career with Asian Paints and prior to joining Berger in 1984, he was associated with Abukon Nigeria Ltd. Mr. Roy is a B.E (Mech) from Jadavpur University, Kolkata & PGDM from IIM, Bangalore having over 19 years of work experience. He started his career with Asian Paints Limited and prior to joining Berger, he was associated with ICI (India) Limited. Mr. Dasgupta is a B.Sc (Hons) from Calcutta University, AICWA & Company Secretary having over 27 years of work experience.
Subir Bose
Managing Director
Abhijit Roy
Director and Chief Operating Officer Director and Chief Financial Officer
Srijit Dasgupta
100% 100%
49% 49%
A joint venture with Becker Industrial Coatings, it offers a range of wood coating products The Companys joint venture with Nippon Bee Chemicals Co. Ltd. of Japan (NBC) for manufacture of coatings for plastic substrates of automobiles.
Emkay Research
27 June 2011
Berger Paints
Initiating Coverage
Investment Rationale
Second largest player in the decorative paints market
Holds 17% market share with 14,000 dealers and 7,700 tinting machines Berger Paints , with a 17% market share, is the second largest company in the Rs120bn worth decorative paints market. This market is characterized as an oligopoly with 4-5 players constituting majority of the market. Berger Paints has a strong foothold in the eastern markets with strategically located plants there. Moreover, it has a strong distribution network including 80+ exclusive stock points and 14,000 dealers to service the decorative paint market across India. Rising consumerism in the country is expected to drive higher demand for decorative paints in future, and we believe Berger Paints is well placed to benefit from this. Competitive landscape
Company Berger Paints Asian Paints Kansai Nerolac Akzo Nobel Decorative market share 17% 53% 10% 9% Competitive position Second largest player in the decorative market. In industrial coatings, it is the leader in the protective coatings market It is the market leader in the decorative segment but lags second in the industrial segment Kansai is the largest player in the industrial segment and is the third largest player in the decorative segment Strong player in the premium decorative paint segment
Industrial paints
Emkay Research
27 June 2011
Initiating Coverage
Berger Paints East and North with increasing presence in South 14,000 7,700 306,000 MT 160,000 MT*
Asian Paints South and West with a pan India presence 27,000 17,000 595,000 MT 300,000 MT
We expect revenue momentum to continue with 19% revenue CAGR over FY11-13E
Moreover, we believe Berger Paints, with a strong second position in the decorative paints market, is well placed to benefit from the rising paint consumption in the country. The paints market is poised for a robust growth momentum in the long term, driven by increasing per capita consumption- currently at 1.5 kg/year compared to 20 kg/year in developed countries . Berger Paints has recorded strong 18% revenue CAGR over FY06-11 and we expect it to sustain its growth momentum going ahead. We expect the company to post a 19% revenue CAGR over FY11-13E, gaining a considerable revenue base of Rs 33 bn. (When Asian Paints was at this run-rate in FY06/07, it had recorded a 21% CAGR over FY06-11, gaining a critical size of Rs 77 bn.) While we are not factoring market share gains for Berger Paints, we believe the inherent growth in paints industry and the companys aggressive focus on increasing its distribution reach will aid Berger Paints in attaining considerable size and scale in the future. Gaining considerable revenue size
120 100 80 Rs bn 60 40 20 -
Berger Paints
Asian Paints
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
40%
growing at 6-10%
Emkay Research
27 June 2011
Berger Paints
Initiating Coverage
11.0
10.0 9.0 Rs bn
8.0
7.0
Howrah (28,560 MT) V V N (48,840 MT) Pondicherry (18,150 MT) Sikandrabad (21,639 MT ) Goa (44,654 MT) Rishra (33,450 MT) Jammu (95,920 MT) Surajpur (14,916 MT)
Source: Company, Emkay Research
6.0
FY12E
Emkay Research
27 June 2011
FY13E
FY09
FY10
FY11
5.0
Berger Paints
Initiating Coverage
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12E
FY13E
Free cashflow
Emkay Research
27 June 2011
Berger Paints
Initiating Coverage
Key Risks
Raw material cost volatility
TiO2, 23% of raw material costs, is on a structural uptrend Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is one of the main raw material inputs , constituting 23% of the total input cost and 10% of sales in FY10. The prices of titanium dioxide have been on an uptrend since FY10 and have increased by 32% YoY for 1QFY12. While c ontinuing demand-supply mismatch is likely to keep the prices of titanium dioxide firm in the near future, prices of other raw materials like vegetable oils, crude oil, etc. continue to witness an inflationary scenario. Thus , firm prices will keep margins under pressure, owing to lag in product price increases . Uptrend in vegetable oil (index) price movement
700 Indexed Rs/ 10kg 650 600 550 500 450 400 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12
GDP growth
Source: Co mpany, Emkay Research
Emkay Research
27 June 2011
Berger Paints
Initiating Coverage
Financials
Revenues to register 19% CAGR over FY11-13E
We expect volume growth of 15% over FY11-13E Berger Paints witnessed 18% CAGR over FY06-11, driven by a strong up-tick in the paints demand leading to a healthy volume CAGR of 13%. While concerns on the short-term demand scenario persist, we believe over a longer term, the company is poised for a healthy growth. We have estimated 19% revenue CAGR over FY11-13E aided by healthy volume growth of 15% (at 1.9x GDP growth assumption of 8%). The company has already undertaken a 7% price hike in 1QFY12, which will further aid overall sales growth in coming quarters. We expect the subsidiaries to contribute 7% to the consolidated sales by FY13E. Our assumptions for paints growth
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Sales (LHS)
Source: Company, Emkay Research
Rs bn
EBITDA
Source: Company, Emkay Research
PAT margin
Emkay Research
27 June 2011
Berger Paints
Initiating Coverage
Emkay Research
27 June 2011
Berger Paints
Initiating Coverage
PER (x) FY12E 19.9 30.1 21.2 18.9 FY13E 16.0 25.8 18.5 17.9
EV/EBITDA (x) FY12E 11.6 18.1 12.9 16.1 FY13E 9.6 15.6 11.1 17.3
RoE (%) FY12E 23.1 38.2 21.9 14.4 FY13E 24.3 35.0 22.4 12.7
Emkay Research
27 June 2011
10
Berger Paints
Initiating Coverage
PER band
150 120 90 60 30 0 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 20x 15x 10x 5x
Berger Paints
Asian Paints
PER discount
Emkay Research
27 June 2011
11
Berger Paints
Initiating Coverage
Annexure - I
Industry overview
Per capita consumption of paints is low at 1.5 kgs/year The Indian Paints Industry, estimated at USD 3.8 bn, is growing at 1.8-2x GDP growth since the last few years. This industry is characterized with many players in the unorganized sector. However, the organized segment that cons titutes 80% of total paint industry is concentrated with top 4 players commanding more than 90% share of the organized market. The per capita consumption of paints in India remains very low at 1.5 kgs, against 15-20 kgs in developed countries. This industry is categorized in two segments decorative, which contributes 70% and industrial that contributes 30% to the total industry size.
70% Driven by rising purchasing power, increasing re-painting cycle and higher economic growth
Emkay Research
27 June 2011
12
Berger Paints
Initiating Coverage
Estimated demand for 2010-14 4.25 mn units 240 mn sq ft 55 mn sq ft 78mn room nights
For Industrial paints Demand for industrial paints is derived from its application in the user-industries like automotive, consumer durables and the capital goods industries. As automotive segment constitutes 40% of total industrial paints, operating environment in this segment is a major demand driver for the industrial paints category. Further, infrastructural development in sectors like power, ports, roads, oil and gas etc, will be another key driver of volume growth in industrial paints. Automotive segment While rising macro headwinds like increase in interest rates, fuel prices and inflation will lead to subdued demand in 1HFY11, it is likely to recover from 2HFY11 once the consumer makes the psychological adjustment for higher fuel prices and interest rates. We expect growth rates to revert to healthy levels from FY13E. Our auto team estimates a 10% YoY growth agains t ~30% growth in passenger cars and 9% YoY growth against 36% growth In M&HCV segment for FY12. In FY13E, the growth rates are expected to recover to 17% and 12% for passenger cars and M&HCV segment, respectively. Trend in passenger car segment
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e % YoY Cars (mn units)
Source: Company, Emkay Research
0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12e FY13e % YoY
Consumer durables segment According to CEAMA, the consumer durable market is currently pegged at around Rs 350 bn and has witnessed a growth of approximately 13% in the last few months. However, with tightening credit situation, it is likely to witness some short term pressure. Nevertheless, over a longer period, consumer durables market is poised to grow at healthy double-digit growth driven by increasing per capita income and higher discretionary spend in the country.
Emkay Research
27 June 2011
13
Berger Paints
Initiating Coverage
Annexure - II
Growth comparison
Berger Paints Growth (%) FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Volume 15.3 11.4 13.0 14.0 3.2 14.7 19.0 14.6 15.0 Revenue 23.0 18.8 18.9 15.0 12.6 11.7 24.5 26.0 15.0 EBITDA 16.1 27.9 13.9 16.6 (5.4) 38.8 19.6 20.4 24.0 PAT 31.1 22.1 17.7 11.1 (3.9) 35.4 23.4 15.6 23.7 Volume 13.2 13.8 17.8 17.5 13.4 16.4 16.8 15.1 15.1 Asian Paints Revenue 15.2 18.7 21.7 21.2 24.9 20.0 23.4 25.9 14.8 EBITDA 8.1 20.3 19.5 31.7 3.4 75.6 13.0 16.7 17.3 PAT 13.3 26.4 21.1 40.4 (3.3) 86.5 14.1 13.7 17.0
Asian Paints Others 13.4 13.6 15.3 16.3 14.7 13.9 Pigments 15.8 14.7 15.8 14.7 16.2 17.0 Solvents 7.1 7.4 8.1 7.1 7.7 5.8 Resins and Oils 7.6 7.3 8.6 8.4 8.8 7.2 Others 17.8 16.6 16.2 16.5 17.0 16.1
Highlights
Volumes for Berger Paints and Asian Paints have grown at an average velocity of 1.6x and 1.9x to GDP, respectively. Only remarkable difference between the growth rates has been in FY09, when Berger Paints witnessed a weak volume growth of 3.2% against 13.4% for Asian Paints. Historically, Berger Paints has witnessed lower margins than Asian Paints. However, with increasing scale, higher backward integration and shifting product mix towards premium -end of water based paints; there is a possibility that the margin gap could narrow in future. Similarly, due to Berger Paints lower margin profile, the company has relatively lower RoE compared to Asian Paints. Nevertheless, we expect it to remain at healthy levels of 24%.
Emkay Research
27 June 2011
14
Berger Paints
Initiating Coverage
Consolidated Financials
Income Statement
Y/E, Mar (Rs. m) Net Sales Growth (%) Expenses Growth (%) Raw Materials % Of Sales Employee Cost % Of Sales Other Expenditure % Of Sales Ebidta Growth (%) Ebidta% Other Income Interest Depreciation PBT Tax PAT (Before EO Item) Growth (%) Net Margin% E/O Item Reported PAT FY10 18,913 16.5 16,922 13.5 11,931 63.1 1,246 6.6 3,745 19.8 1,991 49.8 10.5 238 152 358 1,720 516 1,204 45.3 6.4 0 1,204 FY11 23,281 23.1 20,909 23.6 14,686 63.1 1,448 6.2 4,775 20.5 2,373 19.1 10.2 428 238 401 2,161 660 1,501 24.7 6.4 0 1,501 FY12E 28,967 24.4 26,165 25.1 18,936 65.4 1,641 5.7 5,587 19.3 2,802 18.1 9.7 437 297 450 2,491 759 1,733 15.5 6.0 0 1,733 FY13E 33,174 14.5 29,718 13.6 21,531 64.9 1,867 5.6 6,320 19.1 3,456 23.3 10.4 448 297 498 3,109 956 2,153 24.3 6.5 0 2,153
Balance Sheet
Y/E, Mar (Rs. m) Equity Share Capital Reserves Networth Secured Loans Unsecured Loans Loan Funds Net Deferred Tax Minority interest Capital Employed Gross Block Less: Depreciation Net Block Capital Work In Progress Goodwill Investments Current Assets Inventories Debtors Cash & Bank Loans & Advances Other Current Assets Current Liabilities & Prov Net Current Assets Miscellaneous Expenditure Capital Deployed FY10 692 5,273 5,965 2,673 0 2,674 264 0 8,903 6,757 2,462 4,295 326 0 1,282 6,567 3,299 2,423 413 432 0 3,566 3,001 8,903 FY11 692 6,203 6,895 3,022 0 3,022 263 0 10,180 7,196 2,863 4,333 826 0 526 9,015 4,437 2,753 1,265 560 0 4,520 4,495 10,180 FY12E 692 7,415 8,107 3,022 0 3,022 263 0 11,393 8,046 3,314 4,733 1,026 0 526 9,994 4,818 3,204 1,305 668 0 4,886 5,108 11,393 FY13E 692 8,925 9,617 3,022 0 3,022 263 0 12,902 8,446 3,812 4,635 1,676 0 526 11,551 5,519 3,664 1,605 764 0 5,486 6,066 12,902
Cash Flow
Y/E, Mar (Rs. m) Pre-Tax Profit Depreciation Non Cash Chg in Working Cap Tax Paid Operating Cash Flow Capex Free Cash Flow Investments Equity Capital Loans Dividend Others Net Change in Cash Opening Cash Position Closing Cash Position FY10 1,720 358 236 35 -502 1,846 -622 1,224 -1,237 1,255 -1,002 -191 0 49 364 413 FY11 2,161 401 0 -642 -660 1,260 -940 320 756 -579 348 -450 458 852 413 1,265 FY12E 2,491 450 0 -573 -759 1,610 -1,050 560 0 0 0 -520 0 40 1,265 1,305 FY13E 3,109 498 0 -657 -956 1,994 -1,050 944 0 0 0 -644 0 300 1,305 1,605
Key Ratios
Y/E, Mar Profitability % Ebidta Mgn PAT Mgn ROCE ROE Per Share Data EPS BVPS DPS Valuations (X) PER P/BV Ev/Sales Ev/Ebidta Dividend Yield (%) Turnover (X Days) Debtor TO Days Inventory TO Days Gearing Ratio Net Debt/Equity (X) Total Debt/Equity (X) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3 44.6 60.2 40.6 60.6 37.5 58.3 37.8 56.9 28.6 7.4 2.0 16.6 1.1 22.9 5.6 1.6 13.4 1.3 19.9 4.7 1.3 11.6 1.5 16.0 3.9 1.1 9.6 1.9 3.5 13.4 1.1 4.3 17.8 1.3 5.0 21.3 1.5 6.2 25.6 1.9 10.5 6.4 22.6 24.7 10.2 6.4 25.1 23.3 9.7 6.0 25.9 23.1 10.4 6.5 28.0 24.3 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
Emkay Research
27 June 2011
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Berger Paints
Initiating Coverage
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Emkay Research
27 June 2011
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