NVTC Newsletter080201

NextVIEW Traders Club Weekly Newsletter
Published by NextView Sdn. Bhd. (574271-D) Ph +6 03 27139388 Fax +6 03 27139366

Add B-9-12, Block B, Level 9, Megan Avenue II, 12 Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Newsletter for the week ending 1 February 2008
THIS WEEK’S CONTENTS:

Page
1. Investment/Trading Related Articles:

Be Realistic …… 2
by Stuart McPhee, Private Trader, Author and Trading Coach
2. Market Commentaries
i) Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) …….. 4
Additional KLCI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 5
ii) Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) …….. 6
Additional STI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 7
iii) Thailand SET Index (SETI) …….. 8
Additional SETI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 9
iv) Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI) …….. 10
Additional HSI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 11
v) Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) …….. 12
Additional DJI analysis by Benny Lee …….. 13
3. Regional Market Forecast Group (N/A this week) …….. 14
4. Regional Traders Education Events …….. 15
Disclaimer and Copyright …….. 16
© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 1

1. Trading/Investment Related Articles:
Be Realistic
By Stuart Mcphee, private trader, author and trading coach
Unfortunately for many people who take up the endeavour of trading, they end up losing money. This is
despite the existence of many reputable share trading education companies, an abundance of trading
books available and the presence of solid trading rules that have stood the test of time. These rules are
not secret to anyone either – almost any book will refer to some of them. Yet despite all this, many
people still find it difficult to achieve long term profitable trading.
So what is it that separates the successful from those who fail? If you ask anybody who has studied
trading for any period of time, they will answer ‘psychology’. Essentially, your mental ability to manage
losses and profits and the good and the bad times in trading, manage risk, to not become too greedy and
many others are all encapsulated under the heading of ‘trading psychology’. There have been numerous
professional articles and books written on the subject of ‘the psychology of trading’ and therefore this
article is not intended to elaborate any further on an already well debated and discussed topic, except for
one area.
One thing that many people struggle to come to terms with is their expectations of their trading. Too
many people have unrealistic expectations and expect to make triple digit returns consistently, for
example.
Having high expectations of yourself is a good thing however, unrealistic expectations is not. Many
traders when presented with the wonderful opportunities that the market offers can be very easily led to
setting unrealistic goals for their trading. This can be devastating.
At various trader’s exhibitions and similar events, it is surprising to hear the number of people who
demand trading systems that can produce several hundred percent return and won’t settle for anything
less. These people sometimes then have the audacity to scoff at solid methodologies on offer that can
reasonably expect to achieve a consistent 25 – 35% per year return.
Unfortunately for these people, their expectations are often too high and unrealistic. There will be times
when they will suffer several losing trades in a row and when this occurs, they potentially will not be able
to get back on track. With a slight drawdown in their trading capital and with their unrealistic goals in
their mind, they will start to bend the rules and assume unacceptable levels of risk in order to regain the
losses quickly and achieve their lofty goals.
Another problem that some traders face is even when they set themselves a realistic goal of 20% per
year for example, they then expect to achieve that return in the first few weeks as opposed to taking a
longer term view over the 12 months. 20% per year is only just over 1.5% per month yet some traders
will expect to achieve that quickly and may adopt some of the poor habits similar to described earlier.
It is vital to set yourself goals with your trading but it is equally vital to ensure that those goals are
measurable, and realistic.

About the Author:
Stuart McPhee is a private trader, author and trading coach. He has written numerous articles and texts
including Trading in a Nutshell, 2nd Edition. He also conducts trading courses throughout South East
Asia and has presented at trading expos in Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Ho Chi Minh City, Shenzhen and
Bangkok.
Visit Stuart’s ‘Develop your Trading Plan’ website (www.trading-plan.com) for detailed information on
how to develop a trading plan that is right for you and that you will implement with confidence. Also
available is a regular ezine full of useful trading tips and ideas.

2. Market Commentaries
i) Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI)
Technical Analysis as of 31/01/2008
Basic Price information

Close: 1,393.25
Trend Analysis
MACD (-11.4803)
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is very bearish. The momentum of the trend is
however, weak.
Moving Averages 10-day(1,399.8400), 30-day(1,430.6440), 60-day(1,412.5038), 100-day(1,384.4938).

SHORT-Term Trend: Very bearish
LONG-Term Trend: Bearish
Support and Resistance Analysis

Immediate Support: 1,340.2900
Longer term Support: 1,338.1400
Immediate Resistance: 1,524.6899
Longer term Resistance: 1,524.6899
100 day SMA Support: 1,384.4938

200 day SMA Support: 1,361.1946
Stochastic(26.2039) is currently slightly oversold and is getting higher.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bullish Candlestick pattern: No bullish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Bearish Candlestick pattern: No bearish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Bar Chart Patterns

Bar Chart Bullish Price Reversal Pattern: No bar chart bullish price reversal detected for the last 3 days
Bar Chart Bearish Price Reversal Pattern : No bar chart bearish price reversal detected for the last 3 days
Stochastic
Stochastic Bullish Price Reversal : Stochastic crossed above its %D today.
Stochastic Bearish Price Reversal : No bearish reversal in the last 2 days.
Volatility Analysis
Short term volatility: The ATR has declined therefore price action is less volatile
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are expanding therefore price action is more volatile
Volume Analysis
Volume: 215,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 232,800 shares.
Volume strength is moderate. The On Balance Volume is increasing, indicating accumulation of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________
Additional KLCI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView
Short upward rebound expected
The KLCI together with the rest of the market have been very volatile in the past 2 weeks and the
steep downward correction in the mid of January for one week in the Asian markets forced the US
central bank to cut their overnight interest rates by 75 basis points. This prevented the US from
panicked but did not encouraged the financial market. Last week the Central bank cut another 50
basis points. The KLCI did not react to the additional cut and moved sideways last week with a tight
trading range of between 1,370 and 1,410 points. The KLCI closed at 1,393 points last Thursday.
There is a holiday on the 1st of February.
The KLCI may have found some support last week and a short term bullish momentum is seen
forming. The KLCI is expected to have a short term upward rally if it is able to break above 1,410.
Resistance is at 1,460 points while support level is at 1,370 points. If the KLCI breaks below 1,370
points, then more downward correction is expected.

Sii) FT Singapore Straits Times Index (FTSTI)

Close: 3,007.80
Trend Analysis
MACD (-98.6462)
MACD has just crossed above its trigger line today, indicating a bullish reversal in the short term trend.
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is bullish. The momentum of the trend is strong.
Moving Averages 10-day(3,002.8411), 30-day(3,224.9150), 60-day(3,353.4929), 100-day(3,495.2158).

LONG-Term Trend: Very bearish


100 day SMA Resistance: 3,495.2158

Stochastic(44.7948) is currently in neutral zone and is getting higher.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bar Chart Patterns

Stochastic
Stochastic Bullish Price Reversal : No bullish reversal in the last 2 days.
Volatility Analysis
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are contracting therefore price action is less volatile
________________________________________________________
Additional STI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView
Crucial Support level at 2,950
Despite the additional rate cut by the US central bank in 2 weeks, the Singapore market did not
react positively. The STI was in a bearish mode last week and fell about 100 points to close at 3,002
points last Friday. A short term bullish momentum is formed on the STI last week despite being
bearish. Therefore a short term upward technical rebound is expected. However, the underlying
trend is still bearish so the expected rebound may be a minor one with a possible target of 3,200
points.
The Chinese New Year holiday and celebration at the end of this week may cause investors to stay
out of the market this week. The 2,950 points level remain as the crucial support level and if this
level is being tested and breached again, we may see more downward correction in the Singapore
market. Immediate resistance is at 3,200 points level.

iii) Thailand SET Index

Close: 810.86
Trend Analysis
MACD (-11.9504)
Moving Averages 10-day(759.4820), 30-day(795.3280), 60-day(818.6533), 100-day(833.1727).

SHORT-Term Trend: Bullish

Immediate Support: 728.5800
Longer term Support: 728.5800
Immediate Resistance: 811.3900
Longer term Resistance: 860.6900

100 day SMA Resistance: 833.1727
200 day SMA Support: 803.1130
Stochastic(73.1462) is currently slightly overbought and is getting higher.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bar Chart Patterns

Stochastic
Volatility Analysis
Short term volatility: The 3-period ATR (23.3954) has increased therefore price action is more volatile
Volume Analysis
Volume: 654,204,992 shares, 30-day average volume: 219,398,464 shares.
Volume strength is strong. The On Balance Volume is increasing, indicating accumulation of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________
Additional Thailand Stock Market analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist,
NextView
SETI expected to challenge down trend resistance
The SETI has been very bullish and investor confidence has returned in the last two days of last
week. The SETI climbed about 50 points (6.5%) in only two days to close at 810.86 points. The SETI
may try to break its down trend by testing the down trend resistance at 820 points and if the SETI is
able to break and stay above this resistance level, then we may see a change in trend. If the SETI is
unable to break above 820 points, then we may expect a short downward reversal with support level
at 770 points.

iv) Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Close: 24,123.58
Trend Analysis
MACD (-892.6052)
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is very bearish. The momentum of the trend is
however, weak.
Moving Averages 10-day(23,790.6719), 30-day(25,859.4063), 60-day(26,965.6113), 100-

day(27,296.2852).



Stochastic(37.2016) is currently in neutral zone and is getting higher.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bar Chart Patterns

Stochastic
Volatility Analysis
Volume Analysis
Volume: 6,841,160,192 shares, 30-day average volume: 2,529,509,632 shares.
Volume strength is strong. The On Balance Volume is increasing, indicating accumulation of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Additional HSI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView
HIS may test resistance
The HSI was trading in a sideway range last week despite the additional rate cut by the US central
bank to boost investors confidence in the already weak property and finance market. The HSI which
closed at 24,123.58 points last Friday, is currently in between the down trend channel with a support
and resistance level of 20,000 and 25,000 points respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
closed higher last Friday and this may prompt the HSI to test the resistance level. If the HSI is able
to break and stay above the 25,000 points resistance level, then we can expect a change in trend.
However, the Chinese New Year celebration and holiday is at the end of this week and we may
expect investors to take a break this week because trading days are lesser. Therefore, the HSI may
not be able to rally upwards if it is able to break the resistance.

v) Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)

Close: 12,743.19
Trend Analysis
MACD (-142.5737)
Moving Averages 10-day(12,362.7012), 30-day(12,765.9580), 60-day(13,010.4902), 100-

day(13,317.5498).
SHORT-Term Trend: Bullish



Stochastic(79.8336) is currently slightly overbought and is getting higher.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bar Chart Patterns

Stochastic
Volatility Analysis
Volume Analysis
Volume: 379,576,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 313,015,520 shares.
Volume strength is moderate. The On Balance Volume is increasing, indicating accumulation of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Additional DJI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView
DJI is expected to trade sideways
After 2 rate cuts by the Central Bank which brings down the overnight interest rate by 1.25% in 2
weeks to buffer and encourage battered investor sentiments in the US, the stock market has started
to trend upwards in the short term. However, the rally is not as big as expected. The underlying
trend is still bearish and the DJI, which closed at 12,743.19 last Friday is right at the resistance level.
Investors may be a little cautious this week and the DJI may react to this resistance and pause its
upward rally. Therefore the DJI is expected to trade sideways this week with a support and
resistance levels of 12,550 and 12,850 points respectively.

3. Regional Market Forecast Group
Not Available this week

4. Regional Traders Education Events this week
NONE THIS WEEK
_________________________________________________________________
May the Year of the RAT brings you good health and
wealth. Happy Chinese New Year!

________________________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER AND COPYRIGHT NextView Sdn. Bhd. (574271-D) and NextView Traders Club (NVTC) are NOT a licensed
investment advisors. This publication, which is generally available to members of NVTC, falls under Media Advice provisions. These
analysis notes are based on our experience of applying technical analysis to the market and are designed to be used as a tutorial showing
how technical analysis can be applied to a chart example based on recent trading data. This newsletter is a tool to assist you in your
personal judgment. It is not designed to replace your Licensed Financial Consultant, your Stockbroker. It has been prepared without
regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs because readers come from diverse
backgrounds, with diverse objectives and financial situations. This information is of a general nature only so you should seek advice from
your broker or other investment advisors as appropriate before taking any action. The decision to trade and the method of trading is for
the reader alone to decide. The author, contributors and publisher expressly disclaim all and any liability to any person, whether the
purchase of this publication or not, in respect of anything and of the consequences of any thing done or omitted to be done by any such
person in reliance, whether whole or partial, upon the whole or any part of the contents of this publication. Neither NextView Sdn Bhd
(including offices in other countries) nor its officers, employees and agents, will be liable for any loss or damage incurred by any person
directly or indirectly as a result of reliance on the information contained in this publication. The information contained in this newsletter is
copyright and for the sole use of NVTC Members. It cannot be circulated to other readers without the permission of the publisher. This is
not a newsletter of stock tips. Case study trades are notional and analyzed in real time on a weekly basis. NextView Sdn Bhd does not
receive any commission or benefit from the trading activities undertaken by readers, or any benefit or fee from any of the stocks reviewed
in the newsletter. NextView Sdn Bhd is an independent financial education organization and research is supported by NVTC annual
membership fees.
OFFICES;
Head Office Malaysia: B-9-12, Block B, Level 9 Megan Avenue II, 12 Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Singapore: 5 Shenton Way,
#02-03/05 UIC Building, Singapore 068808. Thailand: The Millennia Tower, 18th Floor, Unit 1806, 62 Langsuan Road, Lumphini, Pathumwan Bangkok,
10330, Thailand. Hong Kong: Room B, 16/F, Crawford Tower, 99 Jervois Street, Sheung Wan, Hong Kong. China: 98 Liuhe Road, 16A GangLu
HuangPu Center Building, Shanghai 200001

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NextVIEW Traders Club Weekly Newsletter

Published by NextView Sdn. Bhd. (574271-D) Ph +6 03 27139388 Fax +6 03 27139366

Newsletter for the week ending 1 February 2008

THIS WEEK’S CONTENTS:

1. Investment/Trading Related Articles:

3. Regional Market Forecast Group (N/A this week) …….. 14

4. Regional Traders Education Events …….. 15

Disclaimer and Copyright …….. 16

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 1

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 2

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 3

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(1,399.8400), 30-day(1,430.6440), 60-day(1,412.5038), 100-day(1,384.4938).

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 4

100 day SMA Support: 1,384.4938

Stochastic(26.2039) is currently slightly oversold and is getting higher.

Bar Chart Patterns

Additional KLCI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView

Short upward rebound expected

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 5

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(3,002.8411), 30-day(3,224.9150), 60-day(3,353.4929), 100-day(3,495.2158).

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 6

100 day SMA Resistance: 3,495.2158

Stochastic(44.7948) is currently in neutral zone and is getting higher.

Bar Chart Patterns

Additional STI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView

Crucial Support level at 2,950

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 7

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(759.4820), 30-day(795.3280), 60-day(818.6533), 100-day(833.1727).

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 8

Stochastic(73.1462) is currently slightly overbought and is getting higher.

Bar Chart Patterns

SETI expected to challenge down trend resistance

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 9

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(23,790.6719), 30-day(25,859.4063), 60-day(26,965.6113), 100-

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 10

100 day SMA Resistance: 27,296.2852

Stochastic(37.2016) is currently in neutral zone and is getting higher.

Bar Chart Patterns

Additional HSI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView

HIS may test resistance

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 11

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(12,362.7012), 30-day(12,765.9580), 60-day(13,010.4902), 100-

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 12

100 day SMA Resistance: 13,317.5498

Stochastic(79.8336) is currently slightly overbought and is getting higher.

Bar Chart Patterns

Additional DJI analysis by Benny Lee, Chief Market Strategist, NextView

DJI is expected to trade sideways

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 13

Not Available this week

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 14

© 2006 - 2008 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 15