Developing an integrated renewable energy, water supply and carbon management system in Australia as an alternative to fossil fueled systems

Robert Samuel Baker

Robert Samuel Baker, Student Number 205 165 386 18,721 words in text without references.

This document is a reformatted copy of R Bakers NR 490 project report that was submitted on 11/2/2009. Marks were deducted for the original formatting; this re-formatted copy is closer to the format required for Honors theses at the University of New England but the original text content has been retained and still includes some formatting errors. Students are advised to pay close attention to their study guides and supervisors advice in formatting their documents so that marks are not deducted for easily avoidable errors of style or format.

Despite errors of form, the author stands behind the information and ideas contained in this document. Any researcher interested in effectively addressing the manifold issues of anthropogenic climate change in Australia and other Nations, should read and understand the concepts presented within this document regarding the impacts of land use on regional climate and possible methods of regional climate modification by proactive landscape management. The author also contrasts the regional climate impacts of coal mining compared to the potential climate moderating effects of an integrated renewable electricity and fuel supply system. Many other practical methods of addressing climate change are also presented in this paper. It must also be remembered that the global climate is the sum and average of regional climates and we can moderate regional climates by proactively managing the landscape.

Most of the so called controversy and debate about climate change, energy and water supply and use and other related issues has been generated by vested interests disseminating misinformation designed to perpetuate the general populations ignorance of the subjects. For example; renewable electricity supply systems such as solar photovoltaic, solar thermal and wind systems operated in suitable areas can provide electricity more economically than coal fired systems and occupy less land than equivalent sized coal fired power stations and their associated mines. Renewable technologies can also supply base load power.

The author hopes that this paper will contribute to constructive discussion and effective action on climate change and needless environmental destruction.

Cover images: Goonyella coal mine, Bowen Basin Qld, BHP Billiton, source: GA (2004), image by Bill McKay, and the PS 10 solar thermal power station in Seville, Spain, source: Gonzalez-Aguilar (2007)

Abstract
Recent climate change projections predict that Australia is likely to continue to become drier and warmer, even when modeled on emission scenarios that consistently underestimate the rate of greenhouse gas emissions growth. The global availability of energy resources identifies that Australia has the worlds best solar resource and good potential for wind power generation, but we continue to deplete conventional energy resources.

A heuristic model of a sustainable energy/water supply/carbon management system is presented as an alternative model for power generation in Australia; the alternative model is called the EWCS (energy/water/carbon system) for convenience. The EWCS includes a capacity to desalinate all Australias water requirements to define a maximum scale, as, if managed properly, use of seawater desalination is probably far less damaging than damming and draining our rivers. For example the land area requirements of the electricity generating technologies examined are highest for hydroelectricity followed by coal fired systems, then solar thermal, then photovoltaic cells (PV) and wind power requiring the least land (in a suitable area). Similarly, hydroelectricity evaporated the most water and degrades water quality, followed by coal which also pollutes water, solar thermal uses less (or none) water than coal systems, with PV and wind systems not requiring any water.

The EWCS model is scaled to provide all of Australias projected water and energy requirements in 2020 and is based on currently available renewable energy technologies such as solar thermal power tower systems with molten salt energy storage, wind turbines and PV systems integrated with advanced adiabatic compressed air energy storage systems [AACAES] and CAES (see page 83) to provide electricity. The EWCS employs algae cultivation ponds fed with sewage, CO2 and desalinated water to produce carbon neutral biomass for conversion to liquid, solid and gaseous fuels. Ultimately, when internal combustion powered transport is replaced by electric and compressed air powered transport, the biomass output from the algae farms can be converted to synthetic crude oil which can then be stored in exhausted oil and gas formations, thus actively removing CO2 from the atmosphere and geosequestering it in a stable form. Waste heat from solar thermal systems will be passed through thermal desalination units, anaerobic digestors, temperature swing CO2 scrubbers to refine biogas and/or similar systems. Finally, waste heat will be rejected into the algae cultivation ponds where it will enhance biomass productivity and evaporation. Evaporation from the algae ponds will directly cool regional climate and increase atmospheric moisture content. i

Increased atmospheric moisture will reduce water stress in plants and enhance primary productivity, thus increasing ecosystem resilience. Increased humidity of sufficient magnitude will also enhance cloud formation and precipitation which will further enhance ecosystem resilience, productivity and carbon sink function. Increased moisture, precipitation and cloud cover will cool regional climates; however detailed climate modeling will be required to estimate the magnitude of climate modification. Cooler soil and increased primary production will enhance the accumulation of soil organic matter, thus enhancing fertility and physical structure, thus reinforcing agricultural and ecosystem resilience. The EWCS will also obviate the need to withdraw water from rivers and groundwater, (which are intimately linked) allowing rivers to return to their natural flow regimes, thus enabling effective rehabilitation of the rivers and their associated riparian zones and floodplains. EWCS enhanced rainfall and infiltration may even allow rivers to return to their pre-European-impact flow regimes and condition (except for extinct component species). The EWCS will also replace the need to treat sewage before dumping it into rivers or the ocean by using it, rivers will cease to be part of human effluent treatment systems and can be managed for their own sake and their many ecosystem services.

The climate moderation effect of the algae farms can be extended by radiating revegetation (buffer zones) outwards from the algae farms, thus further enhancing regional hydrological cycles. Desalinated water will be used to establish and maintain revegetation, thus ensuring that carbon stored in soil and vegetation remains stored and is not lost due to droughts. The bulk of the algae farms should be located in far western NSW to maximise hydrological cycling, revegetation should radiate mainly towards the east (downwind of algae farms). Revegetation with suitable species will provide habitat for native animals including pest predators etc.

Overall, the review identified the environmental impacts of the electricity generating technologies, identifying hydroelectricity to have severely detrimental impacts only exceeded by coal fired systems impacts. The negative impacts of renewable technologies were found to be negligible in comparison if managed cautiously. Evidence was found that renewable technologies could be deployed and managed in a fashion that may significantly moderate regional climate towards cooler and wetter climatic conditions and enhance ecosystem productivity, resilience and carbon sink function. Mainstream climate change responses were evaluated against the serious response represented by the EWCS and it was judged to be theoretically possible for Australia to become carbon neutral or even carbon negative in and beyond 2020. ii

Contents Abstracti 1.1 Climate change scenarios..1 1.2 Fossil fuels and energy production7 1.3 Future energy supplies.....15 1.4 Conceptual outline of a sustainable energy/water/carbon and climate management system.16 1.5 Focus of this report...18 2.1 Energy demand in Australia in 2020....20 2.2 Water demand in Australia in 2020..21 3.1Australias conventional energy resources.....24 3.2 Australias solar energy resources....29 3.3 Wind resources in Australia.33 3.4 Implications of energy resource distribution in Australia39 4.1 Land area requirements of various electricity generating technologies...40 4.2 Definition of an indicatively sized power station.42 4.3 Areas required for various electricity generating technologies....43 5.1 The coal fired electricity generation process....46 5.2 General biophysical impacts of the coal fired electricity generation process..46 5.3 Coal Consumption in Australia....47 5.4 General impacts of coal mining....48 5.5 Effects of coal mining on regional aquifers..51 5.6 Effects of coal mining in relation to climate change.55 6.1 Comparative hydro-ecological effects of fossil and solar/algae energy sources.56 7.1 General impacts of coal fired power station operation..63 7.2 General impacts of wind powered electricity generation..64 7.3 General impacts of operating solar electricity generating systems...65
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7.4 General impacts of hydroelectricity generation and water supply in Australia.....67 7.5 General scale and impacts of an algae farms for fuel supply...69 7.6 Impacts of algae farms in the context of climate change.72 8.1 General impacts of desalination relevant to this project..73 8.2 Water pumping energy requirements...77 9.1 The EWCS model parameter summary and discussion...80 10.1 Carbon emissions in 2020 Australia: Various scenarios....83 Conclusions.89 Recommendations...90 Acknowledgements.90 References...91 List of figures
Figure 1: Global mean temperature trends...2 Figure 2: Modelled land use change effect on temperature during summer..3 Figure 3: Land use change effect temperature during 2002/03 El Nino......3 Figure 4: Range of global CO2 emission projections from fossil fuel use to 2030..4 Figure 5: Comparison of total greenhouse gas emission growth models to 2030...4 Figure 6: Range of global emission projections to 21005 Figure 7: Temperature increase impacts on selected indicators..6 Figure 8: Historical and projected global crude oil production...7 Figure 9: Estimated future Australian black coal reserves......8 Figure 10: Simple estimate of longevity of Australian natural gas resource..9 Figure 11: Simple estimate of longevity of Australian uranium resource..9 Figure 12: Potential global energy sources and annual human energy use..10 Figure 13: Global solar radiation areas suitable for solar thermal power plants.11 Figure 14: Average solar radiation on 10 continents...11 Figure 15: comparative cost of electricity from fossil and solar sources12 Figure 16: Time required to commission new power plants13

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Figure 17: Conceptual layout of a sustainable energy and water supply system..17 Figure 18, PV efficiencies24 Figure 19: Distribution of Australias conventional energy resources...28 Figure 20: Australian annual Average daily global insolation30 Figure 21: Annual average daily insolation on fixed, north-facing collector....31 Figure 22 & 23: Air density at height,calculation and graph.....33 Figure 24: Indicative wind to electricity energy losses....35 Figure 25: General windspeed distribution in Australia.36 Figure 26: Topographic effect on wind flow.37 Figure 27: NSW wind-speed map..38 Figure 28: Effect of resolution on Wind-speed maps...38 Figure 29: Areal requirements of electricity generating technologies43 Figure 30: Areal requirements for 1,000MW equivalent electricity generation44 Figure 31: Coal fired electricity generation process.46 Figure 32: Physical groundwater impacts of coal mining52 Figure 33: Some physical effects of longwall mining53 Figure 34: Some NSW Rivers threatened by coal mining54 Figure 38: Artists impression of the impact of CSP + desalination on a part of Egypt65 Figure 39: Indicative distribution of algae farms.71 Figure 40: Australian annual evaporation71 Figure 41: The Neodren intake system...74 Figure 42: Constructed sea-floor filter intake..75 Figure 43: Two types of brine discharge structures.76 Figure 44: Hazen-Williams pipe friction chart.78 Figure 45: Australias historical and projected CO2 e emissions..83 Figure 46: Change in net CO2 e emissions by gas, 1990 2005.84 Figure 47: Trend of CO2 e emissions by industry sector 1990 2005...84 Figure 48: Australias net CO2 e emissions in 2005 by sector...85 Figure 49: net Australian energy sector CO2 e emissions in 2005.86 Figure 50: Projections of CO2 e emissions in Australia for 2020..87 Figure 51: CO2 e emissions from Australia 2020: various scenarios...88

List of tables
Table 1: Projected final energy consumption in Australia to 2030 by 'fuel'20 Table 2: Projected domestic water consumption in 5 Australian cities to 2031..21 Table 3: estimate of water demand in Australia 2020 by state..23 Table 4; Compilation of ABARE economically recoverable energy resource......27 Table 5: Average daily direct beam insolation in Australian locations.....31 Table 6: Air density at standard atmospheric pressure over a range of temperatures...34 Table 7: Power of wind over a range of velocities in standard atmosphere..34 Table 8: Some elements contained in world average and Australian average black coals..48 Table 9: Air dried analysis of Collinsville coal and derivations.49 Table 10: Elements found in Collinsville coal...49 Table 11: Some operating parameters of Macquarie Generation power stations.63 Table 12: Summary of hydroelectric dam areas and generating capacity in Australia68 Table 13: Energy requirements of various desalination technologies73 Table 14: EWCS model components and parameters..80

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1.1 Climate change scenarios

The IPCC (Alley et al. 2007:1) have identified human use of fossil fuels as the primary cause of increasing concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere, with land use change also causing a lesser, but significant amount of net CO2 emissions. The net effect of anthropogenic emissions of CO2, and other greenhouse gases and aerosols has been determined with very high confidence to be causing global warming [climate change] (Alley et al. 2007:5).

Australias climate is expected to warm overall; southern Australia is expected to receive less precipitation, rainfall projections for northern Australia are less certain, However all climate stimulations examined in Christensen et al. (2007) indicate an increase in potential evaporation and most of them show an increasing moisture balance deficit which strongly indicates that Australia will become drier and thus subject to increasingly frequent and severe droughts and water shortages. Gunasekera et al. (2007) report that months of drought will increase by 20% over Australia by 2030, and by 2070 40% more drought months are predicted for eastern Australia and up to 80% more in south western Australia. A recent report on the impacts of climate change by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology (Hennessy et al. 2008) also predicts that Australia will experience increasingly frequent droughts of increasing severity into the future based on CO2 emission scenarios that are now known to underestimate current emissions and trends (Hennessy et al. 2008:12). The latest report on water availability in the Murray Darling basin reveals that average total flow has reduced by 21% over the last ten years compared to the historical average, and projects that by 2030 average flow could increase by 16% or decrease by a further 33%, with a decrease being most likely (Chiew et al. 2008).

Furthermore; a group of Australian and US scientists have recently found that over the last 40 years the oceans have warmed at a rate 50% higher than published in the IPCC AR4 2007 assessment (CSIRO 2008). There is also evidence that the IPCC have underestimated the rate of climate change and thus the severity of the adverse impacts caused by the warming (Pearman 2007). The following figure illustrates the accelerating trend of global warming.

Figure 1: Global mean temperature trends from Pearman (2007) The impact of vegetation cover change on regional climate in Australia has been modeled by McAlpine et al. (2007), their results indicate that land clearing and vegetation cover change since the arrival of Europeans may have caused mean summer precipitation to decrease by up to 12% in south east Australia, 8% in south west Australia and mean temperature to increase by up to 20 C, the most pronounced areas of change coincide with the most extensively cleared land. McAlpine et al. (2007) state that; the protection and restoration of native vegetation should be a critical management and policy consideration in respect to climate change mitigation.

McAlpine et al.s (2007) results indicate that the effects of land-use change on regional climate are apparently most pronounced during El Nino events, (following figures) when ecosystems are probably most vulnerable - already under maximum heat and water stress, and near [or beyond] the limits of their tolerance.

Figure 2: Modelled land use change effect on temperature during an average summer Source: McAlpine et al. (2007)

Figure 3: Land use change effect on temperature during 2002/03 El Nino, source: McAlpine et al. (2007)

Note: The scale in figure 2 ranges from 1 to -10C, the scale in figure 3 ranges from 2.5 to -2.50C.

The Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics [ABARE] has projected that Australia will be one of the regions most adversely affected by climate change in terms of agricultural production. Agricultural exports are expected to decline by 11 63% by 2030 and 15 79% by 2050 compared to the ABARE reference case, and GDP is expected to decline by 2.8% by 2030 and 5% by 2050 due to climate change (Gunasekera et al. 2007). The recently released Draft Garnaut Climate Change Review (Garnaut 2008a & Garnaut et al. 2008b) has acknowledged that previous climate models have underestimated anthropocentric emissions of greenhouse gases, and so the Garnaut review developed their own emission projections for use in their models (Garnaut 2008a:122) which are reproduced in the following figures. Note: figure 4 illustrates fossil fuel emission models with actual emissions during 2000 2005, figure 5 represents total greenhouse gas emission models (includes landscape emissions) with actual total emissions during 2000 2005.

Figure 4: Range of global CO2 emission projections from fossil fuel use to 2030 with historical data, from Garnaut (2008a) The following figure compares the total greenhouse gas emissions growth projections used in mainstream climate models with historical data and Garnauts (2008) projections.

Figure 5: Comparison of total greenhouse gas emission growth models to 2030 with historical data from Garnaut (2008a)

It is important to note that the recent Australian drought report used mid range SRES emission projections to inform their climate models (Hennessy et al. 2008:12) labeled above as SRES median which projects a 1.7% pa growth in total greenhouse gas emissions, yet recent historical emissions growth is 2.4 %.

When we consider that actual emission growth figures are nearly 50% higher than those used to model future droughts, it is likely that droughts will be even more severe than currently indicated. A comparison of greenhouse gas emission models to 2100 are shown in the following figure.

Figure 6: Range of global emission projections to 2100 from Garnaut (2008a) Note again the discrepancy between the Platinum age projections in figure 6 and the SRES median projections used in recent drought modeling for Australia. Global emissions currently appear to be following the platinum age projections (see Canadell et al. 2008).

The Garnaut review (2008) presents a bleak picture of Australias future prospects in a world profoundly affected by climate change. For example by 2050 it is possible that the Great Barrier Reef will be devoid of living calcareous corals and thus effectively destroyed, and that by 2100 farming would be virtually impossible in the Murray Darling Basin. 5

The Murray Darling River itself would be reduced to a trickle occasionally subject to destructive floods, vast areas of inland Australia will become uninhabitable deserts (Garnaut 2008) and in the worst case 94 % of endemic species may be extinct by 2100. The following figure summarises the probable impacts of a range of global average temperature increases.

Figure 7: Temperature increase impacts on selected indicators, Garnaut (2008:139) Note that all mitigation scenarios listed in figure 7 include the possibility of terrestrial carbon sinks becoming sources of CO2 and if this happens global warming may accelerate beyond any possible human mitigation efforts leading to unimaginable impacts and the possible extinction of the human race.

Most climate change literature from the IPCC nominate an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 450 ppm as the threshold beyond which dangerous and irreversible climate change is likely to occur, however Hansen et al. (2008), after performing extensive analysis of paleo-climatic data suggest that atmospheric CO2 must be reduced from its current concentration of ~ 385 ppm to 350 ppm or less if we are to avoid possible irreversible catastrophic impacts from climate change. The current CO2 equivalent [CO2 e] warming potential of anthropocentric greenhouse gases is about 455 ppm which is slightly offset by anthropocentric aerosol emissions that tend to reduce the warming effect of total greenhouse gas concentrations to a value of about 375 ppm CO2 e Hansen et al. (2008). 6

1.2 Fossil fuels and energy production

Greenhouse gas emissions must be greatly reduced in order to avoid dangerous climate change, as human fossil fuel use has released, and continues to release the largest amounts of greenhouse gas to the atmosphere. Oil production is expected to peak in Australia during 2007-08 and then decline by 0.3% a year but Australian oil demand is projected to increase by 1.4 1.5% a year (Cuevas-Cubria & Riwoe 2006). The peak may be preceded by a 4% rise in domestic crude production in 2007-08 but prices are still expected to increase due to strong international demand (Wright 2007). Global oil production seems likely to peak around 2012 and decline thereafter (Clark & Trinnaman 2007:51) - see figure 8.

Figure 8: Historical and projected global crude oil production from Clark & Trinnaman (2007:51). As the price of fossil fuels increases the cost of constructing renewable energy facilities will also increase as we will initially have to use fossil resources to construct the renewable energy facilities. However once sufficient clean energy sources are constructed their output can be directed towards constructing more renewable energy facilities and we will be able to disconnect our energy use from carbon emissions. The sooner we begin to construct clean energy facilities the cheaper they will be, alternatively if we wait too long we may not have the resources to manage the transition to clean energy sources and the climate may then also be beyond control.

The use of coal to generate electricity is the largest single source of greenhouse gas emissions in Australia (DCC 2008b). Australia has about 40 gigatons [GT] of black coal reserves or around 5.4 % of global black coal reserves and our reserves are expected to last for about 100 years at current rates of extraction (ABARE 2008) but as the rate of extraction for export is expected to increase into the future the author has developed a simple model which takes coal washing and increasing extraction into account. Coal washing causes about 23% loss of weight from run of mine [ROM] coal (derived from DPI 2008 & DME 2007) which reduces the 40 Gt of reserves to 30.8 Gt of saleable coal. Projections of black coal extraction in Donaldson (2007:11) indicate a linear increase in black coal extraction to 2030. So we will start in 2006 and use 300 Mt/ year extraction as a starting point and increase this by 12.5 Mt /year which will bring the rate of extraction up to 600 Mt /year in 2030, we will then continue to increase the extraction rate by the same amount and see what happens to our reserves. The effect of increasing extraction by 25% from 2015 is also calculated and graphed to see what effect increased coal consumption caused by the adoption of clean coal technology may have on reserves.
Australian saleable black coal reserves after projected extraction and 'clean coal' supplement
33000 30000 27000 24000 Reserves minus 23% wash loss Projected annual extraction Extraction +25% 'clean coal' allowance from 2015 Reserves after wash and 'clean coal' allowance

Million tons.

21000 18000 15000 12000 9000 6000 3000 0

Figure 9: Estimated future Australian black coal reserves Figure 9 indicates that Australias black coal will be consumed by 2056, ~ 48 years hence, however if carbon capture & sequestration [CCS] technology is adopted, coal fired power stations may have to consume up to 40% more coal to power the CCS systems (Rochon et al. 2008:5). 8

20 07 20 09 20 11 20 13 20 15 20 17 20 19 20 21 20 23 20 25 20 27 20 29 20 31 20 33 20 35 20 37 20 39 20 41 20 43 20 45 20 47 20 49 20 51 20 53 20 55

Year

If extraction is increased by 25% from 2015 to partially service the fuel demands of clean coal systems, Australias black coal may be exhausted by 2050. Garnaut (2008:103) also mentions that China and the USA are considering processing coal into liquid fuels and Donaldson (2007:31) states that coal to liquid fuel plants are being considered in Australia. If CCS and coal to liquid fuels technology is adopted in Australia, coal extraction rates may also increase and our black coal reserves may be exhausted even sooner than indicated above.

A similar analysis based on data available in mid-2007 (Author, unpublished) was performed on the projected depletion of Australias total reserves of gas and uranium; the results are presented in the following figures.
Projected Australian natural gas reserves and extraction
3000
Natural gas reserve Natural gas extraction

Billion cubic metres gas...

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

Figure 10: Simple estimate of longevity of Australian natural gas resource

Projected Australian uranium reserves and extraction
800 700
Uranium reserves Uranium extraction

Thousand tons U...

600 500 400 300 200 100 0

20 06

20 08

20 10

20 12

20 14

20 16

20 18

20 20

20 22

20 24

20 26

20 28

20 30

20 32

Year

Figure 11: Simple estimate of longevity of Australian uranium resource 9

20 34

20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 20 21 20 22 20 23 20 24 20 25 20 26 20 27 20 28 20 29

Year

As shown in Figures 10 & 11, Australias gas reserves may be gone before 2030, and uranium reserves may be gone by 2036 when projected extraction rates are considered.

Australia had 37 GT of brown coal reserves in 2006 which was expected to last for ~500 years at the [then] rate of extraction (ABARE 2008). Brown coal has a low energy content (Donaldson & Wells 2005), is a relatively inefficient fuel for electricity generation (Passey & MacGill 2003, Akmal et al. 2004) and it is not valuable enough to export. Most ABARE reports (e.g. Akmal et al. 2004) project a relatively low growth of 1.2% /year in the use of brown coal while Denniss et al. (2004) predict that brown coal use will be totally phased out by 2040 as it emits more pollution and CO2 than all other fossil fuels. Considering the finite and dwindling reserves of conventional fuels and the damage that their use is causing it is apparent that we must switch to using cleaner forms of energy as soon as possible if we are to minimise environmental impacts.

The following figure illustrates the magnitude of global energy sources that are potentially available for human use, compared to human annual energy use in 2004.

Figure 12: Potential global energy sources and annual human energy use, from Silvi (2004) 10

As shown in figure 12, the solar radiation intercepted by the earth each year is far greater than our remaining conventional energy reserves and orders of magnitude greater than human annual energy use. The relative global distribution of solar radiation is shown in the following figures. On average, Australia has the worlds best solar resource (Lovegrove and Dennis 2006).

Figure 13: Global solar radiation areas suitable for solar thermal power plants, from Silvi (2004)

Figure 14: Average solar radiation on 10 continents from NSEC (nd) 11

The following graph illustrates the current and projected costs of electricity generated by concentrated solar power systems [CSP] compared to the cost of electricity generated by fossil fuelled systems. The author has added a red line to the graph to indicate the cost of electricity if CCS technology is used on Australias coal fired power stations.

Figure 15: comparative cost of electricity from fossil and solar sources modified from Sandia (2001) Note that the Authors of figure 15 assumed that the cost of fossil fuels would not increase, however the cost of fossil fuels is rising as shown in Garnaut (2008:102) the international price of thermal coal has nearly tripled, gas prices have doubled, crude oil prices increased by 250% between 2001 & 2008 and the price trend of all of these fuels is increasing steeply. The CSIRO (2007:15) have predicted that the cost of electricity from CSP would be equal to the cost of coal fired electricity by 2013, and as figure 15 shows, the cost of CSP is then expected to decrease further. If coal fired power stations adopt clean coal technology they will not be able to compete with CSP at all.

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Given the apparent advantages of concentrated solar power over coal power in terms of sustainability, affordability and greenhouse emissions it is likely that concentrated solar power will be increasingly adopted in Australia. The following figure indicates the relative time needed to gain approval for, and construct various types of power stations, it can be seen that renewable technologies also have the advantage of being able to be constructed quickly when compared to non renewable technologies.

Figure 16: Time required to commission new power plants, from DOE (2007)

The use of nuclear power irreversibly degrades rare radioactive elements that were created in supernovae and cannot be economically replaced, and releases many dangerous short and long lived radioactive isotopes in the processes of extraction, refinement, use and disposal of waste. Nuclear power stations also use about 1.26 times more cooling water than an equivalent sized black coal fired power station (Rose 2006:2). Given the many problems involved with the use of uranium as an energy source, the long implementation period as represented in figure 16 and the looming shortage of uranium in Australia; it is unlikely that Australia will use uranium as an energy source.

As crude oil supplies are becoming more expensive, biomass is increasingly being used as a feedstock for the manufacture of transport fuels. However there is growing concern that the use of terrestrial biomass for fuel will increase the price of food as land used to grow food is converted to grow biomass for fuels and thus less land, labor and water is available for growing food which increases the scarcity and price of food (Batten & OConnell 2007:ix,x). 13

The use of algae to provide biomass feedstock for the production of fuels was investigated by the US Dept Of Energy [DOE] and it was found that algae production systems had the potential to produce 30 times more biomass per hectare than any terrestrial crop while using less water per unit of biomass produced than terrestrial crops (Sheehan et al. 1998). Sheehan et al. (1998) also found that algae could be grown in saline or fresh water ponds in deserts and that CO2 could be directly bubbled into the growing medium and about 90% of the CO2 was absorbed and utilised by algal photosynthesis to create biomass.

Since the report by Sheehan et al. (1998) public funding in the USA for research into algae derived biofuels seems to have ceased, however several private algae to fuel projects have recently been initiated such as the sewagefed algal production system in Marlborough New Zealand which will produce ~ 1 million litres of biodiesel per year (Aquaflow 2006). In Texas, the recently constructed commercial algae/biodiesel plant owned by Petro-Sun is set to produce 5,000 to 8,000 [US] gallons of biodiesel per acre/year for a total yearly production of 9 15 million [US] gallons from its 1,830 acre algae farm (Lane 2008 & Petro-Sun 2008). An algae/fuel plant designed to use CO2 from coal-fired power-plants was also proposed for Australia (LaMonica 2007, BCC 2007) but its progress is unknown.

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1.3 Future energy supplies

Australia is becoming hotter and drier, our fossil fuelled energy systems are unsustainable in terms of fuel supplies, greenhouse gas emissions and the extraction, processing and use of fossil fuels consumes huge amounts of increasingly scarce freshwater (SOE 2006:8), the cooling of power stations alone consumed 247 gigalitres [GL] of water in 2005 while coal mining consumed 118 GL (Trewin 2006: 90, 94,15).

Increasing food and water scarcity and widespread extinctions due to the effects of climate change are almost certain to occur in Australia in the near future unless some very serious measures are taken. Such measures will inevitably include the extensive adoption of clean renewable energy technologies, the desalination of seawater using renewable energy (Melbourne Water 2007:vi ) and possibly, the extensive re-planting of native and introduced perennial woody species for the purposes of providing habitat for increasingly threatened species and to modify regional hydrological conditions in order to force regional climate [back] towards cooler and wetter conditions.

The cultivation of algae for fuels and chemical feedstocks represents a possible transitional step away from fossil fuels, offers a method of safely removing CO2 from industrial processes and the atmosphere for storage as oil or charcoal etc, while not competing for land used for food production and ecosystem services.

If extensive enough areas of algae are grown in ponds, the presence of large areas of water may moderate regional climate towards cooler and wetter conditions, and this effect could be directed by integrated modeling and planning with the aim of moderating regional climates towards enhancing ecosystem resilience, primary productivity, organic carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation outcomes. Algae cultivation may offer a swift means of air conditioning Australia while perennial vegetation is re-established, and as such offers an effective unilateral response to climate change which does not depend on international action and collaboration. The effective integration of; renewable energy technologies, seawater desalination, algal biomass cultivation and re-vegetation could offer a powerful sustainable tool against the worst impacts of climate change. This report will examine what some components of an integrated energy/water/carbon management system for Australia might look like in 2020, their functions and probable biophysical impacts compared to the impacts of our existing systems. 15

1.4 Conceptual outline of a sustainable, integrated energy/water/carbon & climate management system
A basic characteristic of a sustainable practice is that the practice can continue to be used into the foreseeable future without irreversibly depleting any environmental, social or economic resources. Our current energy supply system negatively impacts environmental resources, it directly degrades ecosystems, groundwater and surface water resources, and irreversibly degrades the energy stored in fossil fuels by oxidising them to CO2 at a rate that threatens human existence and releases sulfur, mercury, cadmium and other toxic elements and compounds into the atmosphere which directly impact on human, biological and ecosystem health. It is obvious that our current energy supply system is inextricably integrated with the biosphere in an unsustainable and very destructive fashion although the interconnections are usually ignored in mainstream discussions of the problem.

To be sustainable, an energy supply system must employ renewable sources of energy and recycle the physical resources used within its processes, the energy system must also account for any environmental, social and economic impact that its operation will cause, in short, a sustainable energy supply system must employ consideration of the impact of its integration with the whole biosphere and all relevant human activities within the biosphere. The following figure is a conceptual representation of how renewable energy technologies might be integrated within the biosphere in a sustainable fashion designed to ameliorate the impacts of climate change in Australia.

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Figure 17: Conceptual layout of a sustainable energy and water supply system 17

1.5 Focus of this report

The EWCS model is being developed as an example of a sustainable energy/water supply system which also manages carbon flux and human waste. Other combinations of renewable energy technologies may also provide comparable utility but in order to evaluate the possible impacts of a deliberately integrated system it is necessary to define a system from a myriad of possible combinations of technologies. This report does not address the feasibility or impacts of constructing the EWCS model however some comment may be made on those aspects where appropriate

Some of the basic technologies proposed for use in the EWCS system will be examined in terms of their operational characteristics, resource availability and use, and the major biophysical impacts their use may cause. The use of coal as an energy source will also be examined under similar terms and then the comparative impacts of the various energy and water supply technologies, scaled to demand in 2020, will be explored with reference to a range of carbon emission scenarios which will include:

Business as usual [BAU] continued reliance on fossil fuels and natural freshwater supplies All electricity to be sourced from Solar thermal, PV and Wind-power integrated with Advanced Adiabatic Compressed Air Energy Storage [AACAES] and Compressed Air Energy Storage [CAES] (to be described), all fuels sourced from algae and all water sourced from desalinated seawater. As above, but transport fuel use replaced by electric and compressed air vehicles sourcing renewable electricity and algae farm output transferred to storing carbon

The implications of varying the proportional contribution of electricity from of renewable electricity sources will also be discussed.

A total examination of the biophysical impacts of the EWCS model is beyond the scope of this report however the probable major impacts of operating such a system will be broadly evaluated in terms of: Land area required for solar thermal power systems compared to coal power systems and the major biophysical impacts of operating the respective systems.

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Land area required for algae cultivation and the probable major biophysical impacts of operating large algae farms.

Some of the major biophysical impacts of operating thermal or RO desalination plants scaled to provide all human water requirements in 2020 plus additional water for revegetation and algae farms.

The biophysical impacts of returning Australias surface water resources to their natural flow regimes without regulation, extraction or sewage disposal.

The possible hydrological impacts of the EWCS on temperature, precipitation and river flow trends.

The changes in CO2 flux that may result from the operation of the EWCS compared to current Australian CO2 flux projections for 2020. As is true of most projections of an intrinsically unknown future this report must draw from other projections based on assumptions and the author must also define some assumptions about the future. For example future water consumption can only be estimated due to the variable availability of our current supply system and numerous other factors.

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2.1 Energy demand in Australia in 2020

The EWCS energy supply model parameters are based on energy demand in 2020 as projected by ABARE (Syed et al. 2007). Table 1 (below) is extracted from Syed et al. (2007) and lists Australia's projected final energy consumption by 'fuel' up to 2030. Table 1: Projected final energy consumption in Australia to 2030 by 'fuel', extracted from Syed et al. (2007)

The EWCS final energy consumption parameters for 2020 are derived from table 1 as follows: Electricity consumption for the year to 2020 is projected to be 1,078 petajoules [PJ, 1 PJ = 1015 Joules], 1,078 PJ of electricity = 299.4 TWh [TWh = terawatt hour, 1 TWh = 1012 watts x 3,600 seconds = 3.6 x 1015 Joules or 1 TWh = 3.6 PJ]. Fuel consumption is derived by subtracting electricity demand from the total final energy demand in the year to 2020 as follows: 4,550 PJ 1,078 PJ = 3,472 PJ. So the basic EWCS energy demand parameters for the year to 2020 are; 1,078 PJ of electricity [or ~300 TWh] and, 3,472 PJ of fuels and feedstocks which we will round up to 1,100 PJ of electricity and 3,500 PJ of fuels and feed stocks for convenience as the figures are projections.

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2.2 Water demand in Australia in 2020

Domestic water demand in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth was modeled by Birrell et al. (2005) employing 2001 water consumption figures as a baseline for extrapolating water demand out to 2031 under 4 water usage scenarios. Population growth was the main driver of increased domestic water consumption and all cities evaluated are expected to grow and increase their consumption of water significantly by the year 2031. Birrell et al.s (2005) projections are summarised in Table 2 which includes estimates of water consumption in 2020 interpolated by the author by simple linear regression using the data from Birrell et al. (2005).

Table 2: Projected domestic water consumption in 5 Australian cities to 2031, adapted from Birrell et al. (2005) Range of increased water consumption from 2001 to 2031 33 to 43% 33 to 47% 58 to 73% 13 to 20% 48 to 62% 37 to 49% Interpolated range of water consumption in 2020-21 22 to 29% 22 to 31% 39 to 49% 9 to 13% 32 to 41% 25 to 33%

City Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Average

Regional water demand has also been modeled by various authors, for example; McFarlane (2005) reports water use [all sectors] and projected demand in Western Australia to 2031, DNR&M (2005) have modeled water demand by all sectors in SE Queensland to 2050, Purves (2006) has modeled water demand in the ACT to 2052 and Kirono et al. (2007) have modeled water supply and demand in the ROUS county [NE NSW] to 2030. Water demand/supply modeling has also been performed for Sydney (IPART 2002:5, SCA 2005:3) Melbourne (Howe et al. 2005) and other Australian Cities and regions.

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All water supply/demand models examined above predict decreasing water supply due to climate change, and increased water demand within ranges similar to those projected by Birrell et al. (2005) with regional water demand roughly correlating to water demand in the nearest city.

In 2000 01 total human water consumption in Australia was 21,703 gigalitres [GL], in 2004 05 Australians consumed 18,767 GL (Trewin 2005:8). Water consumption is defined as water that is withdrawn from the environment [surface and groundwater] and not directly returned to surface or groundwater systems. Consumed water therefore, is mainly evaporated into the atmosphere although some unmeasured amount of consumed water may find its way back into groundwater systems whereas in stream water use such as is used for hydroelectricity generation is not considered to be consumed as it is returned directly to surface water systems. The construction of reservoirs for water storage and to feed hydroelectric power stations increases the surface area of the water body and thus increases evaporative water loss. Increased evaporation from hydroelectric water storages is counted as consumptive water use in the USA (Torcellini et al. 2003:2) but is not counted as water consumption in Australia in Trewin (2005:150).

The decline in water use in Australia in 2004 -05 from water use in 2000 01 was due to less water availability which was the result of drier than average weather in 2004 and preceding years (Trewin 2005:1), NSW and the ACT experienced the largest decline in water availability in 2004 05 (Trewin 2005:2) however, water consumption increased in 2004 05 in Queensland, Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern territory over their respective water consumption in 2000 01 (Trewin 2005:10 13). As water use in Australia is often limited by water availability, and water demand is probably greater than water supply in many cases [thus the need for water restrictions], and future water demand is subject to unpredictable demographic and cultural shifts, water demand is difficult to quantify as is reflected in the ranges included in future water demand projections.

Given the difficulties of predicting water demand it was decided that a simple method would be used to define water demand for 2020. The method used here is simply to choose each States highest water usage year [2000 01 or 2004 05] as reported in Trewin (2005) and increase the chosen figures by 30% to provide an indicative model of water demand in 2020. The resultant water demand model for 2020 is summarised in Table 3.

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Table 3: estimate of water demand in Australia 2020 by state, adapted from Trewin (2005)

State NSW & ACT Victoria Queensland SA WA Tasmania NT Total

Water consumption 2000-01 or 200405 (GL) 8,783 5,735 4,361 1,383 1,495 434 141 22,332

Year of data used 2000 - 01 2000 - 01 2004 - 05 2000 - 01 2004 - 05 2004 - 05 2004 - 05

Water consumption + 30% (indicative of consumptive water use in 2020) 11,418 7,456 5,669 1,798 1,944 564 183 29,032

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3.1 Australias conventional energy resources

ABARE is the Australian Government department responsible for gathering and disseminating information on Australian agricultural and energy resources. ABARE also produces projections relevant to future agricultural and energy production, use and trade with reference to models of future Australian and global economic activity such as the Global Trade and Environment Model [GTEM] (Gurney et al. 2007:93) which was also developed by ABARE.

ABARE has been criticised for producing unrealistic projections of future energy pricing, availability and use, see for example Keane (2008), Ward (2006) and Copeland and Kendall (2008:379 - 381). ABAREs projections and reviews often seem biased towards supporting fossil fuel use, for example; Gurney et al. (2007:14) state that solar photovoltaic [PV] systems have electrical efficiencies of 10 15%, but as shown in the following graph, some PV efficiencies are much greater than implied by Gurney et al. (2007).

Figure 18, PV efficiencies, source: (Goswami 2007:388)

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It can be seen in Figure 18 that the University of NSW [UNSW] were developing photovoltaic [PV] cells with efficiencies exceeding 20% (device efficiency) 17 years ago and the NREL exceeded 30% efficiency more than a decade ago. As of August 2007 [a month before the completion of Gurney et al.s (2007) report], PV devices with efficiencies of 37% were commercially available and research PV cells had achieved 40.7% conversion efficiencies (DOE 2007:34), both figures are more than double that reported in Gurney et al. (2007). It is acknowledged that it is needed to draw a distinction between PV device efficiency and PV system efficiency, the latter was reported to be 17% for the commercially available system with 37% device efficiency. The discrepancy is mainly due to the way the cells are arranged on their frame and (DOE 2007:34) expects that commercial systems will achieve efficiencies of 29 33% by 2015. The author has included this brief critique of some of ABAREs apparent bias towards minable energy resources as it is apparent that ABARE ignores the fact that the world uses far more solar energy than any other energy resource but ABARE presents the opposite view and ABAREs information is used to inform public opinion and government decisions. For example, the solar energy used to grow our crops far exceeds the energy Australians use from all fossil resources, and the solar energy that maintains life on earth is annually orders of magnitude greater than the earths total conventional energy resources, yet ABARE takes solar energy for granted and estimates that only uses about 0.1% of Australias energy use is solar energy.

ABARE also publishes estimates of stocks of fossil and nuclear fuels and projections of their reserves to production (Donaldson and Wells 2005:3, Donaldson 2007:6, ABARE 2008:6) which means time to depletion in years, of the energy resources based on estimates of economically recoverable resources depleted at the rate of extraction current at the time the information was compiled. Estimates of reserves to production based on current rates of extraction will obviously overstate the longevity of the resource when rates of extraction of resources are predicted to increase, as is the case for Australian energy resources. Therefore the reserves to production tabulated in (Donaldson and Wells 2005:3, Donaldson 2007:6, ABARE 2008:6) may overstate the longevity of all resources listed with the possible exception of brown coal which is not exported and has seen a steady rate of extraction over the last few years (ABARE 2008:7).

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The process of privatisation and deregulation in the global energy sector has caused much formerly available resource data to become confidential (Clarke and Trinnaman 2004:xi). As many energy-related companies are publicly traded on the share market there may be a temptation to overestimate resources in order to inflate the apparent value of a resource company and thereby inflate the prices of shares in that company. Therefore published estimates of energy stocks must be treated with caution.

Table 4 (following page) is a compilation of the information provided by ABARE, Note for example, how uranium resources were estimated to last 87 years in 2004 but 2 years later uranium reserves declined to 72 years despite new resources being identified. Table 4 is included to inform the urgency for the need to reform our energy supply systems as it is apparent that average Australians feel complacent (if they can ignore climate change) that Australia has large fossil and nuclear resources, but in reality we will soon run out of these resources if planned extraction proceeds (see figures 9 to 11).

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Table 4; Compilation of ABARE economically recoverable energy resource estimates, sources: Donaldson and Wells (2005:3), Donaldson (2007:6) & ABARE (2008:6) Australia Black coal (Gt) 2004 2005 2006 Brown coal (Gt) 2004 2005 2006 Crude oil (GL) 2004 2005 2006 Condensate (GL) 2004 2005 2006 LPG (GL) 2004 2005 2006 Natural gas (bcm) 2004 2005 2006 Uranium (kt) 2004 2005 2006 38 40 40 38 38 37 Share of world (%) 4.9 5.4 5.4 20 23.7 24.1 Time to depletion (years) 106 >100 >100 570 >500 >500

186 0.3 (inc Cond' & LPG) 8 158 0.3 (inc Cond' & LPG) 21 (inc'Cond' & LPG) 173 0.3 10 247 (included with oil) 301 (included with oil) 257 (included with oil) 210 (included with oil) 214 (included with oil) 214 (included with oil) 2,462 2,587 2,429* 702 701 714 1.4 1.4 1.4 29 26.5 27 33 (included with oil) 36 34 (included with oil) 45 67 63 57 87 63 72

* Includes Timor Leste 90% share of Bonaparte Basin (ABARE 2008:6) which also adds to Australias stated [above] reserves of oil, condensate and LPG (ABARE 2008:16), bcm = billion cubic metres [109 m3], kt = 1,000 tons, U extractable for $ 80 US/kg.

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The following figure from ABARE (2008:4) illustrates the distribution of Australias conventional energy resources.

Figure 19: Distribution of Australias conventional energy resources, source; ABARE (2008:4) 28

3.2 Australias solar energy resources

Solar energy also called solar irradiation or insolation, can be measured in different ways depending on the purpose, for which the measurement is being taken. For example; the solar energy falling on a horizontal plate can be measured, recorded and analysed to derive the total insolation falling on the study area at any time during the measuring period. Insolation energy is commonly expressed as megajoules / m2/ day [MJ/m2/day] or kWh/m2/day for solar power calculations, 1 kWh = 3.6 MJ. The insolation falling on a horizontal plate is called global irradiation (Morrison and Litvak 1999, BOM 2008a) because it measures sunlight falling directly on the plate as well as diffuse sunlight reflected from clouds, dust and the atmosphere. These data may be used to derive the total insolation falling on the area over any hour, day, week, month or year of interest that is included within the measurement period. Insolation may also be recorded for several years and the resultant data can then be analysed to derive average daily insolation for any given day, week or more commonly month of a typical year (Morrison and Litvak 1999). The instrument used to measure global irradiation is called a pyranometer (BOM 2008a). Horizontal plate insolation values are useful for informing hydrological [meteorological] energy calculations and are also be useful for predicting the performance of solar hot water systems and fixed solar photovoltaic [PV] systems, especially near the equator.

Direct beam insolation is a measure of the radiation that comes directly from the sun and does not include diffuse global radiation reflected from clouds and the atmosphere unless the diffuse radiation coincides with the direct sunbeam. Direct beam radiation is measured by using an instrument called a pyrheliometer (BOM 2008a) that tracks the sun as it moves across the sky, this ensures that the direct insolation beam is always normal to the measuring sensor and thus measures the insolation that a solar tracking device [heliostat] would receive, which is useful for predicting the energy collected by solar energy devices that concentrate direct insolation such as solar thermal power stations.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology [BOM] maintains a network of pyranometers and pyrheliometers across Australia. The BOM have also developed a computer model that uses images from geostationary satellites to estimate the amount of global solar radiation falling on Australia. The satellite/computer derived models are calibrated from the ground-based network and the resultant global insolation maps are made available through the BOM (BOM 2008a). A BOM global insolation map of daily solar exposure, averaged over a year, is reproduced on the next page. 29

Figure 20: Australian annual Average daily global insolation, source (BOM 2008b)

Figure 21 [modified from Lovegrove (2006)] represents of Australias daily insolation measured from fixed plates inclined towards the north at an angle = to location latitude, averaged over a year. The values are consistant with Morrison and Litvak (1999) and Blakers (2000) however there is some variation due to differing methods of averaging. The author is unable to find a map of direct beam insolation for Australia, however; a comparison of direct beam insolation to fixed plate angle=latitude data provided in Morrison and Litvak (1999) for Sydney Melbourne and Perth reveals only slight insolation differences.

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Figure 21: Annual average daily insolation on fixed, north-facing collector tilt angle = latitude (ANZSES 2006), modified from Lovegrove (2006)

The following table, extracted from Blakers (2000), lists Australias landmass-averaged, mean daily direct beam insolation and average daily direct beam insolation for 28 sites in Australia.

Table 5: Average daily direct beam insolation in Australian locations, source: Blakers (2000)

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Solar radiation can also be modeled using computerised Geographic Information Systems [GIS] with the aid of computer programs such as that developed by Kumar et al. (1997) which calculates fine scale insolation on the landscape using a raster format Digital Elevation Model [DEM] and evaluates each pixel of the DEM at pre-set time intervals where the position of the sun relative to the landscape at each time interval is modeled and the computer calculates whether each pixel is shaded or exposed to the sun, allows for cosine losses due to the slope and aspect of each pixel then records each reading then integrates successive readings to yield a virtual map of fine-scale solar exposure over pre-set time intervals. The basic GIS model developed by Kumar et al. (1997) is able to calculate the position of the sun relative to any location on earth at any time of the year and day and the model can be modified to account for clouds and atmospheric moisture content (Kumar et al. 1997).

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3.3 Wind resources in Australia

Wind turbines use kinetic energy = mass x velocity2, therefore; a wind speed of 3m/s at a mass of 1.2kg/m3 will have; 1.2kg x (3m/s)2 = 5.4 joules/m2 energy every 1/3 second, timed over a second, each m2 normal to the wind will receive 3 x 5.4 joules/s or 16.2 watts of energy each second. Note energy is a quantity measured in Joules or Calories, power is energy expended over time, (eg: Watts = joules per second).

The formula for calculating the power of wind (from Danish 2003) in Watts is: Power (Watts) = (density air [kg/m3]) (velocity [m/s])3

The density of air decreases with increasing altitude and increasing temperature (Stull 1995), air density at a height under uniform temperature conditions can be estimated with the following equation from (Stull 1995): = o x e (/T) x z

Where = density [kg/m3], o = air density at sea-level, x = multiply, e = exponent, = atmospheric constant = -0.0342K/m [Kelvin/metre], T = temperature [Kelvin], Z = height, see following figures.

Figure 22 & 23: Air density at height, calculation and graph, source: Stull (1995)

Air density is also dependant on temperature as shown in the following table.

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Table 6: Air density at standard atmospheric pressure over a range of temperatures, source: Danish (2003) Temperature o C -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Density dry air kg/m3 1.423 1.395 1.368 1.342 1.317 1.292 1.269 1.247 1.225 1.204 1.184 1.165 1.146 1.127

Velocity is the major factor in determining the power of wind. The following table lists the power/m2 of wind at industry standard atmospheric temperature and density at sea level [15oC, 1.225kg/m3] (Danish 2003).

Table 7: Power of wind over a range of velocities in standard atmosphere, source (Danish 2003) Velocity m/s 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Watts/m2 0 0.6 4.9 16.5 39.2 76.2 132.3 210.1 m/s 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 W/m2 313.6 446.5 612.5 815.2 1058.4 1345.7 1680.7 2067.2 m/s 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 W/m2 2508.8 3009.2 3572.1 4201.1 4900 5672.4 6521.9 7452.3

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According to Betzs theorem; a wind turbine can theoretically extract a maximum of 59% of the power of wind and convert it to mechanical energy (Danish 2003b, Piggott 2000). Friction and drag will further reduce the extracted energy and electrical iron and copper losses in the alternator will further reduce the final electricity output (Piggott 2000). Indicative wind-power losses are shown in the following figure.

Figure 24: Indicative wind to electricity energy losses, source Piggott (2000)

Coppin et al. (2003) have assessed the wind resources in Australia at several scales using a variety of methods, and evaluated the methods, outcomes and implications of previous surveys done by others. Coppin et al. (2003) show that there are broad distributions of average windspeeds over large areas caused by major atmospheric circulation systems such as the roaring 40s wind belt which affects southern Australia and the trade winds which affect northern Australia, features such as the great dividing range and coastal areas which also broadly affect regional windspeeds are also identified. The following map shows the general distribution of windspeed in Australia at a coarse resolution.

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Figure 25: General windspeed distribution in Australia, source: Coppin et al. (2003)

At finer resolution, wind-speed in the troposphere is affected by topography and the roughness of the surface. Large mountain ranges can force the wind to go around them, smaller hills may cause the wind to accelerate as it squeezes over the obstruction. A rough surface such as a hilly forested area will cause the wind near the ground to slow, causing a steep difference in windspeed between the lower layers of air, this causes wind-shear and turbulence. Wind passing over smooth surfaces such as a lake will be much less turbulent than wind traversing rough terrain. Some of the effects of topography on wind are illustrated in the following figure.

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Figure 26: Topographic effect on wind flow, source: Coppin et al. (2003)

The different thermal characteristics of land and water can also cause local convective winds such as sea breezes, contrasting land surfaces and the differential heating of slopes in complex terrain can also generate localised winds (Sturman & Tapper (1996:272). When modelled [and verified] on a finer scale, additional areas with high wind-speeds can be identified as shown in the following figures.

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Figure 27: NSW wind-speed map, source: Coppin et al. (2003)

Figure 28: Effect of resolution on Wind-speed maps, source Coppin et al. (2003) 38

3.4 Implications of energy resource distribution in Australia

Abundant solar energy can be accessed almost anywhere in mainland Australia, especially in the arid regions. Tasmania receives lesser insolation than the mainland in general.

Australias useful [for electricity] wind energy resources are mainly located near the south coast of the continent, along the Great Dividing Range, and along the far north-east coast, Tasmania has excellent wind resources. Usable wind resources can also be found in localised areas such as hills and ridges even when the background wind is generally low energy.

Australian coal can only be found in limited areas which are mostly located in or near Australias most productive and biodiverse regions. Australias human population is also concentrated near the same areas where most coal is found and used. Therefore; in contrast to renewable energy resources: the mining and use of coal is likely to affect Australias most valuable natural assets and a fair proportion of its citizens.

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4.1 Land area requirements of various electricity generating technologies

The land area requirements for electricity generating technologies depends on the type of technology used, the size [capacity] of the power station and the availability of the resources consumed by the power station as well as the operational lifespan of the facility. For example; a coal fired power station [CFPS] requires land for the actual power station which includes the coal stockpile, coal handling and grinding facilities, the boilers, the steam turbines and generators, electrical transformers, cooling towers and water reservoirs, (if used). The CFPS also requires one or several coal mines and coal washing plants to supply fuel for the CFPS and a transport route from the mine/s to the power station, the CFPS may also require a catchment and storage area to supply water for cooling and steam as is the case for Bayswater and Liddell power stations which utilise Plashett dam and Lake Liddell as part of their cooling system (Macquarie generation 2006, Coleman 2007).

The land area required for a solar power station [SPS] will depend on the solar technology used and the available insolation at the SPS location. If PV systems are used to construct a SPS, the PV systems area will represent most of the area required as PV systems do not require cooling. If solar thermal technology is used to construct the SPS there may be a need for cooling water reservoirs, or space may be needed for air cooling equipment.

The area occupied by a wind farm could be derived by adding the area of the turbine tower foundations, but it would possibly be more correct to simply include the whole area that is occupied by the wind farm as the wind turbines have some noise and shade impact on their surrounds and there is also a visual impact. The size and number of wind turbines will depend on the desired generating capacity and the availability and power of the wind resource. Wind turbines do not require water or separate cooling infrastructure.

The author does not consider geothermal energy to be renewable so it was not evaluated, nor was gas and oil evaluated because Australia is likely to exhaust these commodities within the next few decades. Nuclear energy was not evaluated as it is unlikely to be used in Australia and economic reserves will be soon exhausted, energy crops were not evaluated as they require fertile land that would be much more useful for ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation and food production.

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To compare the areal requirements of different electricity generating technologies it is useful to define a representative size of power station in terms of generating capacity and annual generator availability which, when multiplied together, yield the total annual electricity output of the power station. Diesendorf (2007) uses a hypothetical 1,000 megawatt [MW, - 1,000 MW = 1 gigawatt [GW] CFPS with an average output 850 MW as a basis for comparison with a wind farm of similar capacity, we will expand on Diesendorfs power station model in the following section.

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4.2 Definition of an indicatively sized power station

The model used by Diesendorf (2007) implies that the 1 GW power station has an availability factor of 85% which reduces the 1,000 MW power stations average output to 850 MW [1,000 x 0.85 = 850]. A 1,000 MW model is reasonable as most of NSW CFPSs are between 1,000 to 2,640 MW capacity and Wallerwang power station is 1,000 MW (DPI 2008:171). A capacity factor of 85% is also reasonable as Macquarie Generations availability for Liddell and Bayswater power stations has been within 1% of 85% from 2004 to 2006 (Macquarie generation 2006) and was 88% in 2007, Delta Electricitys availability averaged over 4 CFPSs over 5 years to 2007 is 86.1% (Delta Electricity 2007).

Macquarie Generation is Australias largest electricity generator, it supplied 12.9% of Australias electricity in 2007 (Macquarie Generation 2007) and Delta Electricity is Australias second largest generator (Delta Electricity 2007). When combined, Delta and Macquarie supplied about 22.7% of the national electricity market in 2006 07 (ABARE 2008) so they may be considered to be fairly representative of Australias black CFPSs.

If we define a year as having 365 x 24 = 8,760 hours, then multiply 850 MW by 8,760 hours we get 7,446,000 MW hours [MWh] or 7,446 GWh of electrical output over a year from a 1,000 MW power station with 85% availability. We can express the energy equivalent in Joules by multiplying the 7,446 GWh by 3,600 [seconds in an hour] as follows: 7,446 x 3,600 = 26,805,600 GJ [gigajoules] or 26.806 x 1015 joules or 26.806 petajoules [PJ].

So a 1,000 MW power station with 85% availability will generate approximately 7,446 GWh [7.446 terawatt hours (TWh)] or 26.806 PJ of electricity over a year.

It is also necessary to define the operational lifespan of an electricity generating facility because fossil fuelled systems require fuelling and the area of mining required to support the generator will increase over time. Sargent & Lundy (2003) use a 30 year generating facility economic life to inform their comparative calculations of generating technologies. Saddler et al. (2004) state that CFPSs have about 30 35 years economic life without major overhauls, Mills (2006) uses 40+ years, yet Delta Electricity (2007) have just celebrated the 50th anniversary of the operation of Wallerwang CFPS and consider 50 years to be the useful life of a power station, so this model will use 40 years as a representative lifespan of a generating facility.

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4.3 Areas required for various electricity generating technologies

The following graph, modified from Trieb (2005) compares the land area requirements of various electricity generating technologies in terms of km2/(TWh/year), multiply by ~7.5 to estimate the areal requirements of a 1,000MW power station.

Figure 29: Areal requirements of electricity generating technologies, modified from Trieb (2005) Algae area in figure 29 [~ 22.8 km2] was calculated from projected algal fuel yields from Sheehan et al. (1998) and 30% conversion efficiency was assumed. Of the technologies listed in Figure 29; hydroelectricity, coal, wind, PV, solar thermal and algae were evaluated for areal requirements under Australian conditions. Results from my evaluations [illustrated in figure 30] are consistent with the areas shown in figure 29 but the area of PV may be overstated in figure 29 because PV collectors can be installed on roofs or even be a roof structure and so PV could require zero land area.

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Figure 30: Areal requirements for 1,000MW equivalent electricity generation using various generating technologies The land occupied by hydroelectric dams per TWh/year electricity generated was derived from the ANCOLD (2002) register of large dams in Australia which lists average annual electrical output, but southern Australias hydro stations [where most hydro is located] have suffered reduced flows due to drought [& climate change] (Snowy Hydro 2007 & 2008, Hydro Tasmania 2008) and therefore reduced electrical output. The hydro area only includes dam surface area, not the thousands of km of rivers and catchments that are also impacted.

The calculations and discussion behind the electricity generating areas for coal, solar and wind, were supplied separately to my Supervisor as they were quite lengthy especially the derivation of the area required for CFPS which was derived from information on the NSW black coalfields and NSW CFPS which are comparable to Queenslands CFPS infrastructure. Brown coal CFPS were not evaluated but are expected to require more land than black coal CFPSs because brown coal has very low energy density and many impurities which leads to much reduced conversion efficiency and increased water use when compared to black coal systems. Calculations on algae and hydroelectric areas are included later in text. 44

The following is a list of the references used to derive figure 31: (ABARE 2008), (AGO 2006), (ANCOLD 2002), (ALSTOM 2001), (Blakers 2000), (Boulton & Brock 1999), (Clarke et al. 2007), (Coal & Allied 2008), (Conrads 2002), (Coxs River CMC 2002), (Danish 2003a, b, c, & d), (DECC 2007), (Delta Electricity 2006), (DeMeo and Galdo 1997), (Diesendorf 2007), (DIPNR 2003), (DNR 2002), (DOP 2007), (DOP 2008a & b), (DPI 2008), (DPI 2008b), (Eraring 2005), (Eraring water nd), (Eraring 2006), (Eraring 2007), (Eraring 2008), (Gonzalez-Aguilar 2007), (Google maps 2008), (Griffith 2004), (Gurney et al. 2007), (JORC 2004), (Lake Macquarie visitors centre 2008), (Leitner 2002), (Lovegrove 2004), (Lovegrove and Dennis 2006), (Macgen 2002), (Macquarie Generation 2005), (Macgen 2006), (Macgen 2007), (McLean 2003), (McConnell & Thompson 2005), (PB 2006), (Saddler et al. 2004), (Sargent & Lundy 2003), (Sunlab 2001), (Torcellini et al. 2003), (Umwelt 2006:1.3), (URS 2004a, b & c), (Weis-Taylor & Moon 2004), (Wildi 1981), (Young et al. 2000a), (Young et al. 2000b).

As many of the references listed above are also used in the main text they are included in the main reference list.

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5.1 The coal fired electricity generation process

Coal is mined, washed and transported to a power station to be burned in order to provide heat to create pressurised steam which is fed into steam turbines coupled to alternators which generate electricity. The power station process is illustrated below.

Figure 31: Coal fired electricity generation process, source: Eraring (2005)

From figure 31 we see that CFPSs require land to situate the CFPS and also to store coal and ash, as well as a supply of water to cool the CFPS - air cooling can be used but most Australian CFPSs are water cooled.

5.2 General biophysical impacts of the coal fired electricity generation process
Many impacts result from mining, washing and transport of coal, and further impacts occur when coal is burned to provide steam for electricity generation. These major processes and their general impacts are discussed in the following section.

Coal is a biogenic sedimentary rock, comprised of <50% carbon, formed from an accumulation of mostly plant material combined with salts and sediments from the landscape where the coal was formed (Skinner et al. 2004). Coal usually begins formation in waterlogged environments such as swamps where anoxic conditions allow the accumulation of organic material, anaerobic decomposition by methanogenic and other bacteria serves to concentrate the carbon content of the material forming peat which if buried may further decompose and concentrate carbon, eventually forming lignite [brown coal] and then black coal if conditions remain suitable (Skinner et al. 2004).

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5.3 Coal Consumption in Australia

Average brown coal production from 2002 to 2007 has been about 70 million tons [MT] a year (ABARE 2008:7) as brown coal [Lignite] is not exported; all 70 million tons of lignite are burned in Australia each year. Black coal production in 2005 06 was 303.4 MT (ABARE 2008:7) of which 231.3 MT was exported leaving 72.1 MT for domestic consumption. In 2006 07 black coal production was 320.1 MT (ABARE 2008:7) of which 243.59 MT was exported (ABARE 2008:9) leaving 76.5 MT for domestic consumption.

A cross check on coal consumption can be performed by deriving the coal tonnage from the stated coal energy released in Australia as follows: In 2005 06 1,639 PJ of black coal and 705 PJ of lignite was burned in Australia (ABARE 2008;63) [figures were not supplied for 2006 07], as most of the coal was burned for electricity generation we will use the figure of 23.4 GJ/ton as the gross energy content of the black coal (ABARE 2008:80) and perform the following calculation: (1,639 x 1015 J) / (23.4 x 109 J/ton black coal) = 70,042,735 tons of black coal.

The energy content of brown coal varies from 9.8 GJ/ton for unprocessed Victorian brown coal, 15.2 GJ/ton for South Australian brown coal to 22.1 GJ/ton for Victorian brown coal after processing into briquettes, for comparison, dried wood is listed as containing 16.2 GJ/ton (ABARE 2008:80). As the brown coal energy content varies we can check for consistency by employing the following calculation: (705 x 1015 J) / 70,000,000 tons lignite = 10.07 x 109 J or ~ 10.1 GJ/ton.

The derived figures for black coal are consistent and the figure for the average energy of lignite consumed is within the range of energy content values for lignite, therefore we can conclude that in 2005 06, 70 to 72 MT of black coal and ~ 70 MT of lignite was consumed in Australia.

The following table lists some of the elements contained in world average and Australian average black coal and multiplies the concentration of elements by the annual tonnages of coal burned at Macquarie Generation, and by 100MT of coal from which representative emission figures can be derived.

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5.4 General impacts of coal mining

Tables 8 to 10 are included as an indication of the composition of coals, and the mass of elements potentially mobilised into the biosphere, however coal is a heterogenous material and the actual composition of coals may vary considerably.

Table 8: Some elements contained in world average and Australian average black coals
Derived annual emissions* from Macquarie Generation** (tons) @ 13.2 MT/year 5.148 13.86 11.88 1.452 3960 132 52.8 1504.8 39.6 1650 0.528 79.2 6.6 36.96 14.52 66,000

Element Antimony Arsenic Beryllium Cadmium Chlorine Chromium Cobalt Flourine Lead Manganese Mercury Nickel Selenium Thorium Uranium Sulphur***

Concentration in average shales (g/ton) 1 15 15 0.2 200 100 20 740 20 850 0.5 70 0.6 12 4

World average coal concentration (g/ton) 0.36 3.2 0.9 0.08 300 14 4 103 6 53 0.06 10 1.6 3 1.3

Average Australian coal concentration (g/ton) 0.39 1.05 0.9 0.11 300 10 4 114 3 125 0.04 6 0.5 2.8 1.1 5,000

Derived emissions* from 100MT Australian coal (tons) 39 105 90 11 30000 1000 400 11400 300 12500 4 600 50 280 110 500,000

Source; CSIRO ET ( X ) 2006 2007 2007a 2007b 2007c 2007d 2007e 2007f 2007g 2007h 2007i 2007j 2007k 2007l 2007m ***

*Emissions, as listed in table 8 are defined as the tonnage of element likely to be released into the environment by the total dispersal of either 13.2 or 100 million tons [MT] of Australian coal, the elements will usually be dispersed as compounds via dust, leachate, sediment, ash, exhaust gases and exhaust dust, some emissions will be immediate, and others, eg the leaching and oxidation of a derelict mine, ash heap or tailings dam may occur over a longer time. **Macgen (2006) ***Most Australian coals in DPI(2008) and DME (2007) are about 0.5% sulfur.

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Many other elements are contained in coal, as shown in tables 9 and 10 [adapted from Boyd (2002) who analysed coal from the northern Bowen basin, Queensland].

Table 9: Air dried analysis of Collinsville coal and derivations, adapted from Boyd (2002) Collinsville pulverised coal 1.1 21.2 742,000 2,798,400 21,200,000 Derived emissions* from 3.5 MT Derived emissions* from 13.2 MT (tons) Derived emissions* from 100MT (tons)

Air dried analysis Moisture % ISO 5068-1983 Ash % ISO 11711981 Volatile matter % ISO 562-198 Fixed carbon % Sulphur %

17 ** 60.7 7,788,417 0.5 535,937

29,373,458 222,526,200 2,021,250 15,312,500

*Ash emissions may be airborne or collected from boiler, carbon emissions as CO2 derived by multiplying C by 44/12 [weight CO2/C], sulphur emissions as sulphuric acid derived by multiplying S by 98/32 [weight H2SO4/S] assumes total reactions. Table 10: Elements found in Collinsville coal, adapted from Boyd (2002) World coal ranges (g/ton) Collinsville* pulverised coal concentration (g/ton) 60,000 39,000 7,400 470** - 100,000 270 3,910 2,700 1,200 140 570 4,800 0.0516 0.3 23 9.7 Amount in 100 MT coal 6,000,000 3,900,000 740,000 27,000 391,000 270,000 120,000 14,000 57,000 480,000 5.16 30 2,300 970 49

Element Major elements Si Al Fe Ca Mg Na K Ti Mn P S Trace elements Au Ag As B

10 - 2,000 5 - 300 10 - 3,000

0.02 - 2 0.5 - 80 5 - 400

Table 10 continued Collinsville* World coal pulverised coal Amount in 100 Element ranges (g/ton) concentration (g/ton) MT coal Ba 20 1,000 550 55,000 Be 0.1 -15 1.5 150 Br 0.5 - 90 7.96 796 Cd 0.1 - 3 0.07 7 Ce 2 - 70 170 17,000 Co 0.5 - 30 43 4,300 Cr 0.5 - 60 84 8,400 Cu 0.5 - 50 18 1,800 Cs 0.3 - 5 2.2 220 Eu 0.1 - 2 3.94 394 Hf 0.4 - 5 19 1,900 Hg 0.02 - 1 0.5 50 Ir 0.1 10 La 1 - 40 93 9,300 Li 1 80 37 3,700 Lu 0.03 - 1 2.08 208 Mo 0.1 - 10 13 1,300 Nd 3 30 81 8,100 Ni 0.5 - 50 36 3,600 Pb 2 80 19 1,900 Rb 2 50 5.7 570 Sb 0.05 - 10 2.6 260 Sc 1 10 52 5,200 Se 0.5 - 10? 19 1,900 Sm 0.5 - 6 13 1,300 Sn 1 10 4.5 450 Sr 15 - 500 1,900 190,000 Ta 0.1 - 1 2.1 210 Tb 0.5 - 4 2.7 270 Th 0.5 - 10 25 2,500 Ti 0.2 - 1 0.3 30 U 2 - 100 26 2,600 V 0.5 - 5 5.6 560 W 2 50 6.1 610 Y 0.3 - 3 11.5 1,150 Yb 5 - 300 210 21,000 Zn 5 - 200 144 14,400 * Values except for Ti from Collinsville, **High Ca value possibly from added lime which may also add other elements [not clear in Boyd (2002)], where 2 figures given for Collinsville due to differing assay methods larger figure used. 50

5.5 The effect of coal mining on regional aquifers

Mobilisation of the elements associated with coal can commence as soon as mining exposes the coal to oxygen, water and micro-organisms which mediate many chemical reactions forming numerous toxic compounds which may then disperse as dust, spillage and via ground and surface water flows. Mining methods may be open-cut, underground or a combination of the two techniques. When mining commences aquifers are either dug through in open-cut, or dug through to access the coal and undermined when the coal is removed using underground mining, the rock above the coal collapses and all aquifers above maybe ripped apart by the settling earth.

While the mine is active, all water draining into it is pumped out, draining all affected aquifers to the extent of their connection with the mine, which may partially or totally empty the aquifers. Other users of the aquifers such as farmers and phreatophytic vegetation [groundwaterdependant vegetation, eg trees (Eamus and Froend 2006)] are deprived of water which may bankrupt or kill the affected parties and have ongoing impacts on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Aquifers intersected by mining may also be connected to rivers, and draining them may cause a loss of water from the river, or salts and compounds may be transported from the mine to the river (Hancock et al. 2005) which could have serious impacts all the way to the sea. If the mine is an open-cut of sufficient size, water will continue to drain into, and evaporate from the pit and regional aquifers may never recover (Hancock et al. 2005).

The drainage of aquifers may also cause resident anaerobic bacterial communities to change to aerobic communities which are not as effective at denitrification of nutrient inputs as anaerobic communities (Boulton and Hancock 2006). This could lead to human water supplies being poisoned with nitrates, or the nitrates could pass into river systems and trigger algal blooms. Trees may also access phosphate and other nutrients (Wilson et al. 2007). Phosphate, in solution in anoxic groundwater, may become insoluble if oxidised [or dried], and remove phosphate input to the soil surface from leaf litter when the trees decline or die, this could lead to profound degradation of the effected ecosystems. An indication of the estimated extent of groundwater disruption expected from 1 NSW coal mine is shown in Figure 32.

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Figure 32: Physical groundwater impacts of coal mining, adapted [green lines and question marks added to indicate potential unknown watercourses and effects] from DOP (2008a) 52

After mining and de-watering has ceased, there is a potential for the mined earth to become saturated and/or acidic, and leach salts and heavy metals from the broken earth which may then be exported via previously sweet aquifers to other parts of the landscape. It is also possible that poor quality water from some aquifers will contaminate better quality aquifers via the mining void and cracks. Ground movement may occur up to 3km from an underground mine (DECC 2008). Coal mining can also release methane CO2 and other gases which can move through aquifers and the soil and can cause anoxic conditions to develop within the soil and kill plants (DECC 2008). In steep terrain, underground coal mining can cause; valley sides to bulge and collapse, river beds to crack and drain or become contaminated and perched water tables and swamps to drain, altering the ecosystems which depended on previous conditions (DECC 2008).

Figure 33 illustrates some of the effects that mine subsidence can have on rock strata and aquifers. Figure 35 shows some NSW Rivers that are threatened by coal mines, note that the coloured areas indicating directly threatened parts of the watercourses could be extended all the way downstream from the direct mining impact.

Figure 33: Some physical effects of longwall mining, adapted from MGS (2007)

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Figure 34: Some NSW Rivers threatened by coal mining, source TEC (2007)

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5.6 Effects of coal mining in relation to climate change

A full outline of the impacts of coal mining is beyond the scope of this paper, however the potential interactions of coal mining with surface/groundwater systems and ecosystems, terrestrial ecosystems, soil, vegetation, and regional climate may be significant and profoundly negative for ecosystems and agriculture. In the context of climate change, the anthropogenic desiccation of the landscape may have even more serious repercussions as it enhances aridity and heat.

In 2004-05 coal mining consumed 154,972ML of water and electricity generators consumed a further 271,035ML water most of it in coal fired power stations (ABS 2006). There is a definite need to review coal mining in Australia in relation to its effects on; ground and surface water resources, their dependant ecosystems and regional climate, especially in the context of projected climate change.

As discussed in section 1.1, the effects of land-use change on regional climate are apparently most pronounced during El Nino events when ecosystems are probably most vulnerable to heat and water stress. Molders (1998) modelled the effects of open-cut mining on regional climate and found that the presence of dry, open-cut mines in the German landscape had a significant effect on regional climate, causing it to be drier and warmer. The effects of land-use change on regional climate are described in (Pielke and Cotton 1992, Pielke nd, Pielke 2001, Sturman and Tapper 1996, Stull 1995, Stull 1998, Tomasetti et al. 2003, Brutsaert 2005, and McAlpine et al. 2007), yet despite the extensive work by the Authors above and others, the effects of land-use change on regional climate are largely ignored in mainstream discussion.

Molders (1998) only considered the direct effect of the open-cut coal mine in his regional climate model but ignored the potential of the mine to drain the surrounding aquifers and groundwater mediated impacts on regional vegetation and climate. Figure 35 in the following section provides a conceptual outline of the way the landscape interacts with regional climate in inland NSW, Figure 36 shows how coal mining is likely to affect the same area and Figure 37 indicates the potential impact that some components of the EWCS may have on regional climate. The graphs in Figures 35 to 37 indicate the temperature, absolute and relative humidity of the lower atmosphere [within the mixed boundary layer] and are provided for conceptual purpose only.

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6.1 Comparative hydro-ecological effects of fossil and solar/algae energy sources

This section summarises the expected general hydro-ecological impacts of coal mining compared to operating a hybrid solar thermal power station / algae farm energy system. A reference landscape is used as a basis for comparisons. The reference landscape represents a vastly simplified west to east section of NSW, extending somewhere between the ~ SA border to ~ Tammworth. The reference landscape does not include topography or surface water features and has a flexible scale. The reference, and two modified landscapes are presented in figures with stacked graphs positioned above the landscapes to illustrate the changes to atmospheric temperature, water vapor content [Mixing Ratio g water / kg (moist) air] and relative humidity. The values for temperature and mixing ratio [MR] are indicative estimates only; the relative humidity is roughly derived from T & MR.

The landscape / graph figures represent moisture and energy changes in a parcel of air moving from west to east across the landscape between about 8 am to 4 or 5 pm in late spring early summer. The figures vastly simplify the situation and detailed hydrological modeling would be required to fairly define real situations: however the basic physical processes behind heating and evaporation are well understood and some reactions are simple. For example if air passes over a hot dry surface, the air will be warmed and relative humidity will be reduced, and the opposite may occur if the air passes over a cool wet surface.

Figure 35 is the reference landscape, all aquifers are undisturbed and the trees and shrubs have access to groundwater and are able to transpire moisture which reduces temperature [compared to no water] and increases humidity, thus reducing water stress on shallow rooted plants and ecosystems. Humidity accumulates in the air until clouds form which cools the surface by shading and rain begins to condense and fall, latent heat is released as sensible heat upon condensation in the clouds where it may be better radiated towards space than if it was released at ground level. Ecosystems function as they have evolved and ecosystem resilience is maximised. Not shown is the westward flows of surface and ground water that occur on the western slopes of NSW and provide recharge water to wetlands, aquifers riparian and floodplain vegetation and maintains inland south-east Australias Air conditioner.

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Figure 35: Basic landscape hydro-ecological interactions 57

Figure 36 shows some of the potential impacts of coal mining and their interactions with landscape hydro-ecological functions. As shown; the mining has drained several aquifers, some of which may then drain connected rivers, swamps, lakes and billabongs etc. A contaminated aquifer [saline or containing undesirable minerals] is also drained, and the water then drains into a lower aquifer which may be connected to a river lower in the landscape and contaminants may adversely impact on the river. If the water is retained in the pit it will gradually evaporate and concentrate any minerals within it, periodic flooding due to storms may then cause the contaminated water to flow into cleaner aquifers/rivers and contaminate them. In any case it is likely that surface [unconfined] aquifers will be permanently drained.

Deep-rooted vegetation that depends on groundwater during frequent and prolonged arid periods will suffer or die because the aquifers it depended on are dry or contaminated leading to reduced latent heat flux and increased sensible heat flux, therefore the air becomes warmer and relatively drier as it passes over the degraded landscape. When the air then passes over the dry mine pit and overburden areas, moisture flux ceases and sensible heat flux increases and the air becomes even hotter and drier.

The hot dry air then passes over vegetation that is already water stressed and increases water stress. Trees and plants that struggle to lift water from deeper in the ground are subject to increased atmospheric water demand. Warmer temperatures cause the hydrogen bonds between water molecules in the xylem of plants to weaken and eventually break as water stress increases, causing leaf loss or plant death. Loss of vegetation can lead to unsustainable soil erosion, loss of shade leads to increased soil temperatures and accelerated loss of soil carbon. The degraded landscape loses its ability to use water and degrades further leading to drier conditions. Crops will suffer as does the rest of the vegetation leading to increased water use, reduced yields and possibly crop failure.

Figure 36 is indicative only, however rainfall is a threshold event, and one degree C may make the difference between getting 20mm of rain or no rain at all. Ecosystem survival is also a complex of threshold events, a wetland may miss several flood events and survive, but several plus one missed flood may totally destroy the system. Farming is also subject to thresholds, for example, one missed shower may cause crop failure and one missed crop too many may cause bank foreclosure.

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Figure 36: Mined landscape, hydro-ecological interactions 59

Figure 37 shows some of the potential hydro-ecological interactions that may be expected from locating solar thermal power stations combined with algae farms in the landscape. Co-location is preferred as the solar thermal plant can supply waste heat for desalination, algae processing, and algae pond heating to enhance productivity. The algae farms also serve as evaporation ponds which are enhanced by the addition of waste heat. About 1/5 to 1/3 of the solar energy intercepted by the solar thermal plant is exported as electricity and the remainder is rejected as waste heat. If the majority of the waste heat is ultimately rejected as water vapour via the algae farms, then the solar thermal heliostats [sun tracking mirrors] may be viewed as behaving like a forest in that most of the energy they intercept is rejected as latent heat, although the heat rejection may be ~ a kilometre/s removed from where it was intercepted. The heliostats would provide shade and reduce the water demand of plants beneath them. If the heliostats were an array of dishes that tracked normal to the sun all day, the area of shade cast would be greater than the area of the dish / heliostat due to the cosine effect [eg, a 1m2 board will shade about 2m2 of flat ground if the board is held flat towards the sun at about 8am or 4pm. If the solar thermal plant was of the power tower type, the heliostats would provide slightly less efficient shading than a direct tracking heliostat because the heliostat must bisect the angle between the sun and the power tower receiver. If multiple power tower receivers were used and heliostat focus was switched to maximise efficiency, shading would also be maximised. If climate modelling was performed, the solar thermal plants operating characteristics would have to be defined and included in the model.

The algae ponds are shallow ponds filled with water that is green with microalgae, as such they would absorb most incident insolation and release most of it as latent heat. In an arid setting, algae ponds would tend to cool and humidify the air. It is assumed that leakage to aquifers can be minimised from algae ponds, but investigations of the implications and impacts of leakage should be done before construction. As it would require about 6,700 km2 of algae ponds to provide Australias projected fuel use in 2020 there is a lot of potential for air conditioning and rainfall enhancement which should be worth starting investigative scenario modelling to explore the potential to minimise the impacts of climate change on several levels while providing clean energy. Power generation may be coordinated with irrigation timing across the landscape to maximise humidification of target bodies of air and thus maximise precipitation to target areas.

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Figure 37: landscape Hydro-ecological interactions with solar power plants & algae farms 61

In summary, mining would tend to dry and warm landscapes compared to their more natural condition and the use of algae ponds combined with solar thermal power plants should tend to humidify and cool the landscape.As several thousand square kilometres of land will be impacted by coal mining in Australia if we continue to use coal as an energy source, the hydro-ecological impacts of future [and past] coal mining could be very significant. As most coal mining would be in productive agricultural areas, the hydro-ecological impacts on agriculture and farm income may also be significant and must be taken into account.

Landscape change can cause cumulative degradation and this can be seen in Australia. Our ecosystem functions and associated water cycles are severely degraded and vulnerable to the impacts of climate change but the effects of land use on climate and the carbon cycle are usually ignored. Any genuine attempt to address the problems of climate change must seriously consider the impacts of land use change on the climate. Proactive landscape management is probably the most powerful tool available for managing the manifold impacts of climate change.

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7.1 General impacts of coal fired power station operation

Some operating parameters of Macquarie Generations two power stations; Bayswater and Liddell, for the year 2006, are listed below as an example of the resources consumed by CFPSs. Table 11 gives and indication of the magnitude and types of resource use and emissions sufficient for comparison with the resources used by other electricity generating technologies.

Table 11: Some operating parameters of Macquarie Generation power stations, adapted from Macgen (2006), * means derived from figures in table. Coal burned (tons) Electricity sent (GWh) Availability (%) Forced outage (%) Biomass use (tons) Biomass coal equivalent (tons) Waste oil fuel (tons) Start up oil burned (tons) Water from Hunter River Water used *Water use per kWh sent out CO2, kg/MWh *Total CO2 (tons) Sulfur dioxide kg/MWh *Total SO2 (tons) *Derived H2SO4 (tons) Oxides of nitrogen kg/MWh *Total NO2-e (tons) Particulate matter kg/MWh *Total particulates (tons) Liddell Total 2006 Bayswater 7,979,109 5,140,863 13,199,972 16,540 10,057 26,597 90.14 76.89 2.03 7.29 56,926 40,410 23,232 6,418

3,892

10,310 50,101 ML 58,172 ML 2.19 Litres 24,330,188 136,226.5 208,597 65,679

897 14,836,380 5.5 90,970 139,298 2.39 39,531 0.025 413.5

944 9,493,808 4.5 45,256.5 69,299 2.6 26,148 0.08 804.5

Note: 2006 data were used because all other available Macquarie Generation reports only list water drawn from the Hunter but do not list water use.

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7.2 General impacts of wind powered electricity generation

Operating wind turbines consume no water at all, and as their foundations are generally less than 10m deep and cover a very small area they do not interfere with ground or surface water systems. Wind turbines do not require millions of tons of coal to be ripped from 100s of metres below the earth and many more millions of tons of earth and water to be permanently displaced and contaminated. Nor do operating wind turbines require that millions of tons of fuel be transported to them nor all of the resource use associated with transport. Wind turbines emit some noise and a lot of electricity when the wind blows but nothing else.

The main biophysical impacts of operating wind turbines seems to be their potential to kill birds and bats if the flying creatures impact on the turbine blades or towers, and the potential to cause habitat alteration or loss due to construction, access and maintenance impacts. The potential for wind turbines to damage birds and bats has been reviewed in the USA by their Federal Government Accounting Office (GAO 2005) who found that about 1,000 raptors were killed by collision with wind turbines each year in a region of northern California were there are more than 5,000 wind turbines. And 2,000 bats were estimated to be killed each year by wind turbines in the Appalacian mountains, but most other areas reported relatively few bird or bat deaths caused by wind turbines (GAO 2005). For comparison the US Federal Wildlife service estimated that each year; 97 976 million birds are killed by collisions with windows, 4-50 million more by collision with communication towers, at least 72 million more killed by pesticides, and hundreds of millions more killed by cats (GAO 2005). (GAO 2005) found that the impacts of new wind farms could be minimised by careful site selection, and that newer wind turbines which are taller, with rotors higher above the ground than the earlier turbines, were less likely to kill raptors in northern California than the older turbines [and less new turbines are needed to replace the output of the smaller, older turbines]. In Australia, the Department of the Environment and Heritage commissioned Biosis Research Pty Ltd (Biosis 2006) to provide an overview of the cumulative models that have been developed to assess the risk of windfarm collision for birds(DEH 2006) with a focus on windfarms in east Gippsland, Victoria. As well as modeling the risk to 33 species of birds, Biosis also evaluated the risk to the Grey-Headed Flying Fox (Smales and Venosta 2005). Smales and Venosta (2005) concluded that of the 34 species evaluated, the threat of damage to Australian populations from wind turbines was negligible to 22 and low to 12 species.However Smales (2005) and GAO (2005) state that more information is needed on the distribution and habits of bird and bat species.

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7.3 General impacts of operating solar electricity generating systems

Photovoltaic cells are effectively inert during operation due to the fact that they are sealed units and are unlikely to leach any compounds or elements in normal operation, but fire or explosions may cause the release of some compounds (Summers and Radde 2003). Lenardic (2008) lists many URL links to further information on the environmental impacts of PV systems, all papers viewed agree with (Summers and Radde 2003) regarding the inertness of PV systems in operation. The main impact of operating PV systems is shade, which in the context of global warming, may be beneficial, as found by Trieb (2006) who suggests that the shade from solar thermal heliostats would be useful shelter for horticulture and parking etc.

Solar thermal power systems [STPs] were found to be environmentally beneficial in California because they can generate electricity without harmful emissions and may be used to replace older fossil fuelled systems and thus reduce overall emissions (Stoddard et al. 2006). Trieb (2005) also found that solar power systems generate no emissions during operation and states that the energy invested in constructing wind, and solar thermal systems can be recouped within 3 13 months of operation. Trieb (2005) also found that solar thermal systems require less land than coal fired systems. The following figures show the possible impacts of solar thermal power coupled with desalination on the Mediterranean region.

Figure 38: Artists impression of the impact of CSP + desalination on a part of Egypt [RH image], source: Trieb (2006)

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Solar thermal electricity systems seem to be very beneficial, especially in context of global warming. However Trieb (2005) identified some operational hazards, such as the risk of spillage of synthetic heat transfer fluid that is used in some solar trough plants. Trieb (2005) also states that solar thermal systems can require cooling water [some are also air cooled] but Trieb (2005) suggests that plants near the coast may use thermal desalination in place of their condensers, and produce potable water with their waste heat instead of consuming cooling water. Sargent & Lundy (2003) found that if water cooling was used in STPs, water consumption was similar to CFPS cooling water consumption. Sargent & Lundy (2003) also found that regardless of the cooling system used, STPs need to have their mirrors cleaned, and this used 22 litres of water per m2 of mirror per year, in context; if the system was steam driven and water cooled, the proportion of water used for washing mirrors would be 0.4% of the total water use.

In summary, undesirable environmental impacts from operating STPs could be considered negligible except if fresh cooling water is used from an arid environment. On the other hand, the shade provided by STPs Mirrors may be very useful for cooling the local environment and reducing moisture stress in crops or pasture that may be cultivated beneath the heliostats, buildings and other facilities could also benefit from heliostat shading. In context of climate change, STPs could provide multiple benefits.

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7.4 General impacts of hydroelectricity generation and water supply in Australia

The construction of large [and small] dams on rivers, river regulation, water withdrawals and diversions for human use have severely detrimental impacts on aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems in Australia (Bunn and Arthington 2002, Arthington and Pusey 2003, Boulton and Brock 1999), Ryder and Boulton (2005) also acknowledge the tight linkages between surface and groundwater systems and provide an overview of limnology in Australia. Arthington and Pusey (2003) summarise research on rivers in Queensland where it was found that 80 90% of natural flow was required to maintain the studied rivers environmental resilience, however they also state that the same flow requirement should hold for southern rivers.

If we consider that climate change will probably severely deplete most Australian rivers flows (Hennessey et al. 2008), it may soon be damaging to take any amount of water from our rivers or aquifers, and that many of those systems may totally dry up in any case. As much of populated Australia is already short of water, it is apparent that our current water supply system is environmentally unsustainable, and temporally unreliable. Furthermore, the sum of the surface area of the 499 large dams in Australia (ANCOLD 2002) is 5,436 km2 with a total storage volume of : 93,656.536 GL or ~93.657 km3. If we simply divide the volume of the total area of large dams by the surface area we get an average depth of 17.2 metres, if only 1 metre of stored water evaporated each year, the dams would lose about 5.5 km3 of water a year, or about of Australias total human water use in a normal year. Of course, as the dam level drops, surface area will diminish and most dams are currently very low, however; evaporation is generally significantly higher than 1 metre in Australia and will probably increase with climate change.

The following table provides a brief summary of some basic physical characteristics of hydroelectric dams in Australia.

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Table 12: Summary of hydroelectric dam areas and generating capacity in Australia, derived from ANCOLD (2002) Number of hydro' dams 20 4 14 27 2 67 Total hydro' generation capacity (MW) 4,092.1 642.2 530 2257 32 7,553.3 Average* total annual output (GWh) 6,191.9 769.5 1,087.7 9,466 Total km2 surface km2 /GWh /TWh area /year /year (km2) 885.3 0.143 143.0 93.27 0.121 121.2 353.14 0.325 324.7 749.68 0.079 79.2 4.743 4743.3

State NSW Queensland Victoria Tasmania Western Australia Totals Averages from totals

**km2 /7.446 TWh 1064.6 902.52 2417.5 589.7 35319 0

210 996.1 17,725.1 3077.49

0.17

173.6 1292.8

* Average output may no longer apply due to climate change. ** Nominal annual output of 1,000MW CFPS.

If we allow 1 metre of evaporation from the total hydroelectric dam area, 3,077.5 GL of water would be evaporated, divided by the total annual output of 17,725,100,000 kWh yields a figure of 173.6Litres/kWh, which is much higher than the figure of 68L/kWh evaporation quoted in Torcellini et al. (2003) for US Hydroelectric installations, but probably reasonable given the lower topographic relief in Australia and its relative aridity.

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7.5 General scale and impacts of an algae farms for fuel supply
According to Sheehan et al. (1998:iii) it will take about 200,000 hectares algae pond surface area to grow enough algal biomass to produce one quad of fuel. A quad is a quadrillion British Thermal Units [BTU] or 1015 BTU, which is equal to 1,055 PJ [petajoules].

In 2020 Australia is expected to use 3,286 PJ of fuels & chemical feedstock, which we will round to 3,300 PJ for convenience. If we used algae to produce 3,300 PJ of fuels we would require 625, 600 ha of algae growing ponds, or 6,256 km2 which is equivalent to a square area with sides 79.1 km long.

However, Sheehan et al. (1998) are not clear on algae to fuel processing energy requirements and budding commercial operations are not forthcoming with details of their processes, so we will allow for an extra ten percent area of algae farms to provide processing energy and a margin for maintenance and repairs. Ten percent extra area is considered to be more than reasonable because conventional fossil fuel refineries consume about 8.5% of the energy embodied in crude feedstock for use within the refinery (derived from Donaldson 2007;22) and Scheer (2004:210217) provides convincing evidence that processing biodegradable biomass into fuels and chemical feedstocks requires less energy than processing toxic crude oil into the equivalent compounds when suitable biomass is used.

The three main components of algal biomass are carbohydrates, proteins and natural oils, the latter may account for up to 60% of the biomass in some species of algae (Sheehan et al. 1998:6). The carbohydrate component may be fermented into alcohol [releasing CO2] which can be combined with the oil component via a transesterfication reaction (Sheehan et al. 1998:7) using potassium hydroxide or sodium hydroxide as a catalyst (Tickell 2003) the alcohol can also be directly used as a transport fuel. Proteins have many uses, however in the context of a fuel production system the protein and residual algal biomass component could be fed into an anaerobic digester with sewage input to produce methane and CO2, which can then be separated (Metz et al. 2005). The methane can be stored and used to provide chemical feedstock or processing energy, either by direct combustion or preferably; subsequent to being combusted in a combined cycle gas turbine which generates electricity as well as process heat.

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Digester sludge and effluent would provide a nutrient recycle into the algae ponds, residual biomass could be used as soil conditioner, or be pyrolysed to provide syngas for chemical synthesis (Spath & Dayton 2003:i) or be combusted to provide heat.

We will assume that 75% of the processing waste heat will be recycled back into the ponds and 85% of CO2 released is recycled into the algae ponds; where 90% will be reused by algal photosynthesis (Sheehan et al. 1998:12). The provision of extra pond area would also increase evaporation and thus increase evaporative cooling and the opportunities for cloud formation and precipitation. With the 10% buffer the area of algae farms becomes: 6,256 * 1.1 = 6,882 km2 .

If we allow for roads and infrastructure, to occupy a quarter of the area of an algae farm, the total area required to produce all of our fuels and chemical feedstocks in 2020 would be: 6,882 * 1.25 = 8,603 km2, which is equivalent to a square area with sides about 93 km long.

Figure 39 shows how the area of algae farms might be distributed to enhance rainfall and reduce plant water stress in Australia. Modelling similar to that done by McAlpine et al. (2007) would be required to define the probable effects on climate, and several configurations should be explored and developed. Figure 39 is indicative only, if used the algae farms might actually be located closer to population centres. However figure 39 gives an impression of probable scale and allows for initial estimations of evaporative water loss.

Estimations of annual evaporation were made with reference to figure 40 and yielded figures of 2.754 km3 for the Western Australian and 11.744 km3 for the NSW farms for a total annual evaporative loss of ~14.5 km3.

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Figure 39: Indicative distribution of algae farms

Figure 40: Australian annual evaporation, source BOM

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7.6 Impacts of algae farms in the context of climate change

The presence of algae farms in the landscape should humidify the air and possibly enhance cloud formation, and rainfall while reducing water stress on regional vegetation and regional temperatures. Wallace (2000) states that humid microclimates can enhance the water use efficiency of plants [more carbon is fixed per unit of water use], which should enhance the terrestrial carbon sink, as should cooler temperatures. Sheehan et al. (1998) state that algae is capable of producing 50g/m2/day of dry organic matter [OM]. If we allow for 50% of OM to be carbon as estimated in Robertson et al. (1999) and allow for a bit of loss, we may estimate that the algae may be capable of fixing 20g/m2/day carbon. Multiplying the area of algae ponds [6,882 x 106m2] by 20g/m2/day carbon times 365 days yields a figure of 50.239 x 1012 g C, or 50,238,600 tons of carbon fixed annually, if the ~50 million tons of carbon was then processed into a form of crude oil [possible once transport is electric] and pumped into exhausted oil and gas formations, we could remove the equivalent of (44/12)(50,238,600) = 184,208,200 tons of atmospheric CO2 annually. Algae ponds require ~10 kWh/ha/day electricity for stirring power, multiplied by 688,200 ha and 365 days yields 2,511.93GWh or 9.04PJ of electricity less than 1% of expected Australian electricity use in 2020.

Lovelock (2000) discusses the cloud nucleation potential of dimethyl sulphide [DMS], which is emitted from lysed or dying halophytic algae. The DMS decomposes to form a sulphate/methane sulphonate aerosol which can enhance cloud formation. Although saline water should not be added to inland Australia, it may be possible to use the abundant supply already there to cultivate some aerosol producing algae strains and manipulate the process to induce cloud formation when possible/useful. Large areas of algae ponds distributed across the landscape, coupled to the waste heat output from STPs/desal-plants could be coordinated to reject maximum latent heat when a target air parcel passes to stimulate cloud or rain formation. Algae can grow in saline or freshwater, but the danger of saline water leaking into the landscape should be avoided, therefore we will assume that all water used will be desalinated. The following section deals with some major aspects of desalination relevant to this project.

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8.1 General impacts of desalination relevant to this project

Buros (2000) gives a concise account of desalination technologies, as space is limiting I refer the reader to Buros (2000) for a basic description of the processes. However Buros (2000) understates the thermal energy required for thermal desalination plants, the following table gives an accurate account of the energy required by various desalination technologies.

Table 13: Energy requirements of various desalination technologies, source: Burgess et al. (2006)

This paper will only evaluate Reverse osmosis [RO] and Multiple Effect Desalination [MED] in a broad fashion, focussing mainly on the physical aspects of the process and some related environmental aspects. Using data from Burgess et al. (2006); we will assume that both MED and RO systems will require 3kWh/m3 water desalinated of electricity, and the MED process will require an additional 25kWh/m3 [90MJ/m3] water desalinated of thermal energy and we will allow 50% recovery [ratio of freshwater produced to seawater processed] for each process. Referring to table 3, projected water consumption in Australia in 2020 is in the order of 29km3, at 3kWh/m3 we would require 87 x 109 kWh, or 313.2PJ of electricity about 28.5% of the total expected electricity consumption in 2020 in Australia to desalinate all 29km3.

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If all electricity was sourced from STPs in 2020 we would reject at least 1,100PJ of waste heat, which would be sufficient to desalinate 12.2km3 of water. However, most STPs would be inland [where they might be used to leach saline landscapes or reduce stream salinity] so it would be likely that RO systems would be deployed to treat seawater.

As it is desirable to minimise impact on coastal systems, desalination plants should be constructed away from the shore and use horizontal directional drilling and a Neodren style intake system [following figures] which ensures very clear intake water and minimises or eliminates the need to pre-treat the water, thus minimising the discharge of potentially harmful compounds (Peters & Pinto 2008).

Figure 41: The Neodren intake system, source: Peters & Pinto (2008)

The offshore intake also avoids potential impacts to coastal freshwater groundwater systems (Peters & Pinto 2008), which may be disrupted by onshore intake wells that draw seawater from ground connected with freshwater aquifers (Cooley et al. 2003). In areas where the seafloor geology is unsuited to filtration, a sea floor filter can be constructed as shown in figure 42.

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Figure 42: Constructed sea-floor filter intake, source Peters & Pinto (2008)

Once the seawater is passed through the desalination plant and half of the freshwater has been withdrawn, the remaining water [called brine], which now contains; double the solutes, additional chemicals if added, metals and compounds from corroding plant, and secondary compounds formed during passage through the plant, must be discharged to the sea [or salt production system, land disposal is environmentally damaging]. Concentrated salt solution, heavy metals such as copper, chlorine and secondary compounds can be harmful to the marine environment (Latterman and Hopner 2008b). particularly to seagrass [Posidonia spp] (SanchezLizaro et al. 2008).

Brine discharge from thermal plants can be warmer than ambient temperature and have very low dissolved oxygen [DO] content, if intake water is sourced from wells or the seabed, it may also have an initial low DO with the result that the discharge will also have low DO. Even if RO plants are used both high temperature and low DO can adversely impact on the marine environment (Latterman and Hopner 2008). When discharging brine to the sea it is best to pipe it some distance from shore and preferably into deep water subject to high energy waves to enhance dilution and dispersion and minimise the potential for environmental damage (Einav et al. 2002).

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Dilution of the brine discharge can also be enhanced by ejecting the brine as a jet directed about 600 from horizontal towards the sea surface, the exact design depending on seafloor topography etc, (see Bleninger and Jirka 2008), as shown below.

Figure 43: Two types of brine discharge structures, source: Bleninger and Jirka (2008),

Note: Figure 43a is not recommended, and the pipe in figure 43b would ideally be installed in a tunnel drilled as in the Neodren system, with only the discharge nozzle protruding and no infrastructure visible from the shore.

The further environmental implications of operating desalination plants [membrane replacement/recycling, chemical use and corrosion products and maintenance etc] will not be discussed here. However Latterman and Hopner (2008, 2008b) give a good introduction and URS (2002) give an accessible account of the details of major desalination processes, the following section discusses the additional pumping energy associated with desalination plants.

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8.2 Water pumping energy requirements

As it is preferable to site a desalination plant away from coastal ecosystems, we will allow for feedwater to be lifted to a height of 48m asl and a distance of 1 km from the shore [= 50m head see following]. Providing sufficient head will also allow gravity to provide sufficient energy to produce a good jet of water at the discharge sites. As we require 58km3/year of water to be supplied to the plants in order to desalinate 29km3/year of water at 50% recovery we will begin by calculating the pumping energy requirements of the feedwater supply.

In simple terms the energy required to lift a cubic metre of water with 100% efficiency is given by: Energy = gh (Young and Freedman 2000), where = density of water (we will allow 1,050 kg/m3 for seawater, 1,000kg/m3 for freshwater), g = the acceleration of gravity (9.8m/s2) and h = head (height that water is pumped to), for seawater g becomes 10,290 Joules per metre of head per m3, freshwater g becomes 9,800 Joules m/m3.

However, pumps are not 100% efficient, large centrifugal pump-sets (including electric motor efficiency) efficiencies range from 60% to 85% (Hammer and Hammer 1997:104), however three cylinder or triple throw ram pumps can achieve efficiencies of up to 95% (Twort et al. 1985:421). As centrifugal pumps are commonly used in water supply systems (Twort et al. 1985) we will allow 80% pumping efficiency for calculations.

Pumps must also supply the kinetic energy of flow velocity and energy to overcome pipe friction (Twort et al. 1985), as the nominal design velocity is 1m/s the kinetic energy component is relatively low and we shall assign it an energy value equivalent to 1m head. Pipe frictional energy loss can be expressed as headloss per length of pipe, headloss depends on the smoothness of the pipe and the velocity of the water flowing through it, various calculations can be used to calculate headloss (Twort et al. 2000) but we will use the following graph for an estimate of headloss. Interested readers should see Twort et al. (2000) for accessible [and metric] information on water supply systems.

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Figure 44: Hazen-Williams pipe friction chart, source: Twort et al. (2000)

Using whatever multiple number of the 2,100mm diameter, smooth pipes (C value: 100) required to transport any given volume of water at 1m/s velocity, as a basis for estimation, we derive from figure 43; a friction loss, expressed in m/km of 0.5m head per km of pipe length. Therefore, a desalination plant situated 2km from its intake and 48m asl would require pumping energy equal to that required to lift its source water about 50m.

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Using 80% efficient pumps, and the previously derived lifting energy for seawater over 50m head we derive a figure of: (100/80)(10,290 J/m/ m3)(50m) = 643,125 joules or 0.178645833 kWh per m3 of water lifted. Applying 643,125 J/m3 to the 58 x 109 m3 required seawater [at 50% freshwater recovery], yields 37.3PJ of energy required each year.

The product water must then be pumped to the user, a simple model for the distance to, and height above the desalination plant of the average user will be estimated as 100km away and 300m asl [~250m above the desalination plant].Using the same pipe diameters and velocity as the seawater supply over 100km we get 50m friction loss, added to the 250m head and neglecting velocity energy gives an estimated virtual head of 300m on which to base our freshwater supply pumping energy requirements. Applying our 80% efficient pumps to the freshwater with a g of 9,800 Joules per m3 of freshwater lifted per metre, to the 300m virtual head yields: 100/80(9,800J/m/ m3)(300m) = 3,675,000 joules/ m3, which or ~1.02 kWh m3. The figure seems reasonable as Anderson (2006) quotes a figure of 2.4MWh/m3 [2.4kWh/m3] energy to lift water 600m from Shoalhaven to Wincarribee dam as part of Sydneys water supply. Applying 3,675,000 joules/ m3 to 29 x 109 m3 yields 106.575PJ total energy (as electricity) required to lift 29km3 water to its virtual 300m high destination.

Adding the desalination energy totals to the feedwater energy and freshwater distribution energy totals yields a total energy requirement of: 313.2PJ + 37.3PJ + 106.575PJ = ~457.1PJ total energy needed to desalinate and lift 29km3 of water to a destination 100km distant and 300m asl or about 41.5% of Australias projected electricity consumption in 2020.

As the algae farm locations in figure 39 are ~several hundred km inland but only about 100m asl we will assign the same total desalination + pumping energy per m3 as for our virtual desalinated water supply and adjust it to the 14.5km3 of water required for supplying the algae farms as follows: (14.5/29)(457.1PJ) = 228.8PJ, estimated energy required to supply algae-farm/airconditioner with water each year.

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9.1 The EWCS model parameter summary and discussion

Table 14 shows the basic components, and parameters of the EWCS scaled to Australias energy and water demand in 2020. Figure 17 provides a conceptual overview of the EWCS, energy, water and carbon fluxes are not added to figure 17 because Table 14 provides an outer estimate of water and energy use and supply. Actual figures would most likely be reduced due to the contribution of increased energy efficiency, solar hot water, water recycling and perhaps increased rainfall and reduced temperatures could also reduce energy and water demands.

Table 14: EWCS model components and parameters EWCS Component/parameter, year 2020 Base electricity demand (PJ/ year) Base water demand (km3/ year) Electricity to desalinate base water (PJ/ year) *Electricity to pump base water supply (PJ/ year) Algae farm water requirements (km3/ year) **Buffer wetland/ revegetation water requirements (km3/ year) Electricity to desalinate and pump algae and buffer water (PJ/ year) Electricity to power algae farms (PJ/ year) Cooling water volume if thermal power systems used (km3/ year) ***Electricity to supply desalinated cooling water (PJ/ year) Total electrical energy (PJ/ year) Total desalinated water supplied (km3/ year) Algae pond area (km2) Algae farm area (km2) Algae farm buffer area (km2) Solar thermal electricity plant area (km2) Percentage of 2020 flux base 1,100 100 29 100 313.2 28.5 144 13 14.5 50 14.5 457.6 9 1.687 26.6 2,050.4 59.7 6,882 8,603 17,206 3,825. 50 41.6 0.8 6 2 186 206

*Includes desalination plant feedwater and freshwater delivery, a more accurate model would subtract BAU pumping energy. **Sewage input should provide excess water for uses such as transporting brine back to the sea or augmenting buffer water. ***Cooling water not calculated for coolant electricity supply.

The distribution of the algae farms may be arranged as shown in Figure 39. Or the farms may be distributed across the landscape in a grid pattern to facilitate weather control.

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Alternatively algae farms may be located near population centres. Algae farms and buffer zones could also be integrated within a system of Sustainable population hubs across Australia supported by sustainable mosaic ecosystems Scott (2002).

The actual distribution of the algae farms should be defined by modelling that considers hydrological, ecological, social and engineering constraints and be designed to maximise utility under those constraints. Buffer areas containing wetlands and revegetation should be located adjacent to the algae farms and be about twice the area of their associated algae farms, the buffers would provide habitat for native fauna and help control potential negative biological and hydrological impacts such as mosquitoes and adverse waterlogging. Wetlands are also the most effective carbon sink of the biomes listed in Watson et al. (2000), thus their maintenance and creation should be a priority consideration when managing carbon in the biosphere.

Land-use impacts on regional climate were discussed in section 6.1 and the potential to manipulate algae farms to stimulate rainfall and enhance primary productivity are discussed in section 7.6. As most of the rainfall that falls in the lower Murray Darling Basin [MDB] comes from air masses moving from a westerly direction, it is logical to assume that locating algae farms towards the west of NSW would maximise the cooling and wetting potential of additional water vapour as potential clouds would travel across a larger land area. There may also be greater potential for rainfall recycling if algae farms are located further inland as post-rainfall evaporation would be recycled into the westerly airflow and may condense, rain, evaporate, transpire multiple times across the landscape. Adding water is the key to cooling the landscape. Conversely, our current system holds water in storages that are predominantly towards the east of eastern Australia and severly restricts flows to the west of the MDB, Queensland also restricts flows into the MDB. It would be very useful to model the impact of river regulation (and groundwater disruption) as well as land use change on regional climate in Australia as the impact of river regulation and diversion may be significant.

Compressed Air Energy Storage [CAES] is a proven technology that uses excess electricity [eg from wind farms] to compressed air into a vessel or cavern, the heat of compression is wasted, later when electricity is demanded the compressed air is released through a modified gas turbine where the air is expanded to produce electricity and the wasted heat is replaced by burning gas in the expanding air (Bullough et al. 2004). Advanced Adiabatic CAES [AACAES] stores the heat of compression and requires no fuel (Bullough et al. 2004). 81

CAES could be integrated within the EWCS in several ways, for example the heat of compression could be used to drive gas from hyper-oxygenated algae process water as part of a thermal desalination stage of algae processing [if used]. The oxygen rich air could then be stored and compressed into discharge from the desalination plant when air is expanded through staged turbines inter-heated by cooling water prior to discharge to the ocean. The cool discharge air may also be useful for cooling local areas. If used for cooling CAES would require no fuel and might be reguarded as an off peak air conditioner as well as an energy/electricity storage device. AACAES would be useful in any electricity grid. The use of pipes linking a CAES air grid may also facilitate virtually lossless transmission of stored energy as well as efficient energy storage.

Seawater desalination is advocated as a water supply as its environmental impacts can be managed far more easily than the impacts of withdrawing water from freshwater ecosystems. There is also much scope for improvement of desalination plants, for example, in thermal plants metal surfaces could be vitrified [as in hot water tanks] and thus heavy metal contamination and pre-treatment could be reduced. A desalinated water supply would add water to the landscape where our traditional water supply system holds, stagnates and evaporates much of the water that would be better used to maintain the natural landscape. The impacts of seawater desalination may be felt at estuaries, however careful siting and engineering solutions can eliminate most impacts. Conversely the impacts of river regulation and water withdrawal are felt along the length of a river, throughout its catchment basin as well as at its estuary and the impacts are sometimes impossible to manage.

Many other factors could be proactively modelled within the EWC [management]S, for example, the effects of legislating that all urban roofs be clad or painted with reflective paint instead of dark colours to reduce the urban heat island effect could be investigated. Cladding our roads in toxic waste [bitumen] could also be reviewed. Our existing water and energy supply systems are already impacting on the environment and these impacts must be acknowledged and carefully accounted for.

There are many proven energy supply technologies that do not emit CO2 or other pollutants and it is not useful to simply equate energy use with carbon emissions. It follows that having an abundant supply of energy can be a good thing if managed carefully and that using clean energy to add new water to the landscape could help ameliorate climate change. 82

10.1 Carbon emissions in 2020 Australia: Various scenarios

The document tracking to the Kyoto target 2007 (DCC 2008a) summarises Australias calculated CO2 and CO2 equivalent [CO2 e] emissions data from 1990 to 2005 from the more detailed National Inventory Report 2005 Revised (DCC 2008b) and also includes projections of Australias emissions through the Kyoto accounting period [2008 to 2012] to 2020 under business as usual [BAU] and with measures scenarios, as shown in the following figure from (DCC 2008a).

Figure 45: Australias historical and projected CO2 e emissions, source: DECC (2008a) Note that figure 44 indicates that CO2 e emissions in 1990 were 554 Million tons [Mt] yet DCC (2008b) which was released in the same month as DECC (2008a) states that Australias CO2 e emissions were 516.4 Mt in 1990 (DCC 2008b: 2) and repeats the figure in a table and graph on page 24 [reproduced on the following page]. The discrepancy between the documents is ascribed to different methods of accounting for forestry sinks under the Kyoto rules [which yield the higher figure] and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC] (DCC 2008a). Australia nominated 1990 as the base year for the purpose of accounting for the Kyoto agreement and used 553,773.80 gigagrams [Gg] or 553.7 Mt as the base year emission figure (DCC 2008c) in its official submission to the UNFCCC [under the Kyoto rules].

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Figure 46: Change in net CO2 e emissions by gas, 1990 2005, source: DCC (2008b)

Figure 47: Trend of CO2 e emissions by industry sector 1990 2005, source: DCC (2008b) 84

Note that the discrepancy between net emissions calculated under the Kyoto and UNFCCC rules narrows from /553.7/516.4 = 107.2 % in 1999 to 580/555.3 = 104.4 % in 2005, - the figure of 580 Mt was measured off figure 44 as no tables were available to directly compare the figures calculated by the different methods. As the purpose of this paper is to project the impacts of operating a totally renewably powered energy system in 2020 and projections are inherently uncertain we will assume that Australias net CO2 e emissions will be 5% higher if calculated by the Kyoto method than they would be if calculated using the UNFCCC method, and the main discrepancy will occur in the land use change category, this will allow some comparison between the detailed information provided in DCC (2008b) calculated by the UNFCCC method and the projections in DCC (2008a) calculated by use of the Kyoto rules.

The following figure illustrates the proportion of CO2 e emissions by industry sector in 2005.

Figure 48: Australias net CO2 e emissions in 2005 by sector, source: DCC (2008b)

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As shown above [figure 47], stationary energy [mainly coal fired electricity generation] is the greatest source of CO2 e emissions in Australia, the more general energy sector which aggregates stationary energy, transport, and fugitive emissions [e.g. methane released by coal and gas extraction] was responsible for 71 % (395.9Mt) of Australias CO2 e emissions in 2005. Emissions from biomass combustion in the energy sector in 2005 was said to decrease from 1990 to 2005 by 39.2 % [0.8 Mt CO2 e] (DCC 2008b) which implies that total biomass combustion emissions in 2005 were 1/0.392 * 0.8 = 2.04 Mt, which amounts to 2.04/395.9 = 0.5 % of total emissions from the energy sector in 2005. The remaining 99.5 % [393.86 Mt] of emissions were from fossil fuel use. The following table provides a breakdown of emissions from the energy sector in 2005.

Figure 49: net Australian energy sector CO2 e emissions in 2005, source: DCC (2008b)

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Figure 49 provides information on the proportions of CH4 and N2O released when combusting fuels which will be used to inform projections of the impacts on emissions caused by replacing fossil fuels with carbon neutral fuels derived from algae and other biomass [which also release CH4, N2O and other greenhouse gases when burned (DCC 2008d:27)] and an alternative scenario where all transport would be powered by electricity or compressed air energy storage and conversion devices which would have zero greenhouse gas emissions.

The following table from DCC (2008a) summarizes the proportional contribution of CO2 e emissions in Australia under BAU and with measures scenarios and will provide a basis for a projection of emissions under a serious measures scenario where all fossil fuels are replaced with carbon neutral renewable energy and fuels.

Figure 50: Projections of CO2 e emissions in Australia for 2020, source: DCC (2008a) Figure 50 reveals that projected emissions from the stationary energy sector are expected to be reduced by 20% in 2020 compared to BAU projections for 2020, but emissions from stationary energy will still increase under the with measures scenario. The only genuine emission reductions from 1990 levels planned under the with measures scenario occur in the Waste and Land use, Land use change and Forestry sectors, all other sectors will increase their emissions under the with measures scenario. 87

We shall designate 2020 BAU [Business as usual] from figure 50 as scenario 1, and 2020 with measures as scenario 2. Using scenario 2 as a base, I define the following numbered scenarios:

3) = Scenario 2 with all stationary energy replaced by carbon neutral systems and half fugitive emissions ceased due to cessation of coal mining [fugitive emissions will continue from coal mines for years after closure].

4) = As above with all transport fuels supplied from carbon neutral algae.

5) = As above with all transport powered by carbon neutral; electric, compressed air, or hydrogen vehicles [sourced from renewables] and algae farm output of 184 million tons [discussed on page 67] of CO2 equivalent fixed carbon [syn-crude howzat] sequestered in exhausted fossil formations

The following graph illustrates Australias CO2 e emissions in 2020 under the 5 scenarios.
CO2 - e emissions from Australia, year 2020, under various scenarios
900 800 700 600

MT CO2 - e

500 400 300 200 100 0

3 Scenario

Figure 51: CO2 e emissions from Australia 2020: various scenarios Note: enhanced primary productivity would probably enable scenario 5 to be carbon negative.

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Conclusions
There is overwhelming evidence that use of coal and other fossil energy sources cause devastating environmental damage on many spatial and temporal scales. Coal mining in particular has the potential to destroy surface and groundwater systems and the damage may not (apparently) spatially or temporally coincide with mining activities due to cryptic groundwater connections and processes which may be delayed by flow rates, climate variability and biological cycles within the ground/surface aquatic/terrestrial ecosystems. Furthermore the very presence of a coal mine especially an open-cut mine, is most likely to dry and warm the regional climate which concurrently reduces ecosystem and agriculture water use efficiency and thus reduce the landscapes carbon sink function. Groundwater contamination and destruction of aquifers can lead to a severance in the water cycle between the; physical (aquifer/river), biological (microbes to trees) and atmosphere (micro to macroclimate) leading to further regional aridity, loss of organic carbon and damage to ecosystem and agricultural productivity and resilience. Damage from coal mining can be effectively permanent.

Renewable technologies such as solar and wind power systems usually require far less land than coal power systems and their primary and subsequent impacts are negligible compared to the damage done by fossil fuelled systems. Furthermore; renewable technologies could be deployed so as to air condition Australia, and if some desalinated water was used to grow trees on top of the emission reductions outlined in scenario 5 [figure 50] Australia could conceivably become carbon negative we might reverse [slowly] our emissions.

Hydroelectricity and our current water supply system are not sustainable and severely damage the environment, renewably powered seawater desalination could replace our unsustainable system (augmented by water tanks, recycling etc) and the rivers and estuaries could be returned towards their natural condition. The environmental impacts of desalination can most likely be better managed by eco/engineering techniques than can the impacts associated with our current major water supply systems, provided best practice is applied.

The mounting devastation of anthropocentric climate change demands humanities full attention, the time to act was 1970~ish but now would be good. There are many things that we could do to turn the tide, it is not a question of your money or your life? more a pittance or your childrens lives and the subsequent extinction of humanity? Let us be worthy of our assumed status of masters of the Earth. 89

Recommendations
Australia must actively investigate using solar thermal/algae hybrid farms as a fuel source and a means to remove CO2 from the atmosphere while modifying regional climate and usefully utilising sewage. Coal mining and use should be stopped in Australia. Seawater desalination should be used in preference to withdrawing water from freshwater ecosystems.

Acknowledgements
I would like to thank my supervisors for all of their inspiration and support, unfortunately, due to illness causing reclusive-ness, I did not avail myself of their support as much as I should have. The original document was virtually unreadable but thanks to Dr Darren Ryders extensive review and comments the paper now has a focus, even so, the poor quality of my writing is entirely my own fault. Thanks also to all of the academic, library and administrative staff at the University of New England who have all been extremely helpful, especially the staff at Ecosystem Management.

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