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Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation 13 (2008) 2328–2336

www.elsevier.com/locate/cnsns

Water resources planning based on complex system

dynamics: A case study of Tianjin city
X.H. Zhang a, H.W. Zhang a, B. Chen b,*
, G.Q. Chen c, X.H. Zhao a

a
School of Environmental Science and Technology, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
b
State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment,
Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
c
National Laboratory for Turbulence and Complex Systems, Department of Mechanics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

Received 5 February 2007; received in revised form 10 April 2007; accepted 1 May 2007
Available online 27 June 2007

Abstract

A complex system dynamic (SD) model focusing on water resources, termed as TianjinSD, is developed for the inte-
grated and scientific management of the water resources of Tianjin, which contains information feedback that governs
interactions in the system and is capable of synthesizing component-level knowledge into system behavior simulation at
an integrated level, thus presenting reasonable predictive results for policy-making on water resources allocation and man-
agement. As for the Tianjin city, interactions among 96 components for 12 years are explored and four planning alterna-
tives are chosen, one of which is based on the conventional mode assuming that the existing pattern of human activities will
be prevailed, while the others are alternative planning designs based on the interaction of local authorities and planning
researchers. Optimal mode is therefore obtained according to different scenarios when compared the simulation results for
evaluation of different decisions and dynamic consequences.
Ó 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

PACS: 89.65.Lm

Keywords: System dynamics; Water resources; Strategic planning; Decision-making; Tianjin

1. Introduction

The population growth and the economic expansion have been increasingly stimulate the demands for
water supplies, which results in serious water shortage and water quality degradation in many cities of China.
Effective planning and management for water resources has been one of the major concerns with regard to
sustainable urban economic development.
SD, proposed by Jay W. Forrester, aims at solving the simulating problems of large-scale systems by inte-
grating systems theory, cybernetics, information theory and computer technology. SD method consists of

*
Corresponding author. Tel./fax: +86 10 62754280.
E-mail address: chenb@pku.edu.cn (B. Chen).

1007-5704/$ - see front matter Ó 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.cnsns.2007.05.031
 X.H. Zhang et al. / Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation 13 (2008) 2328–2336 2329

dynamic simulation models embracing information feedbacks that govern interactions in a target system.
Through simulating the development trends of the system and identifying the interrelations and information
feedback relations of each factor of the system, the SD model can obtain more detail informations, which will
be helpful for exploring the hidden mechanism and thus improving the performance of the total system. Since
initially reported in 1960s, SD has been applied to global scale [1,2] and national and regional scales [3–9] sys-
tems with sustainability assessment.
A better understanding of the significant contributors to urban water resources supply-demand balance and
of the way the water resources system reacting to certain policy is necessary for the government to make
proper decision. Water resources is an integral part of the socio-economic-environmental system, which is a
complex artificial sub-ecosystem dominated by human. The study of sustainable water resource strategic plan-
ning should be conducted in view of general systems theory through dynamic interactions amongst the related
social, economic, environmental, as well as regulatory factors, which are characterized by non-linear and
multi-loop feedbacks. Due to the dynamic, multi-objective and multi-reaction characteristics of urban water
resource system with cause–effect relationship dispersed in time and space scales, system dynamics (SD) was
considered to be an appropriate method to illustrate the complex dynamics and analyze the relative implica-
tions of regulatory policies [1,2].
Researches in multi-objective planning of water resources [10], environmental planning of watershed [11],
and urban water system planning [12] has been done in recent years. This study is an extension of the previous
SD applications, focusing on the environment management of the urban complex socio-economic-environ-
mental (SEE) system. A SD model as a case study is developed in this paper for the water resources strategic
planning of Tianjin city, China.

2. Methodology

2.1. Concept of SD

The SD model takes certain steps along the time axis in the simulation process. At the end of each step, the
system variables denoting the state of the system are updated to represent the consequences resulting from the
previous simulation step. Initial conditions are needed for the first time step. Variables representing flows of
information and initials, arising as results of system activities and producing the related consequences are
named as level variables (described as in the flow diagram) and rate variables (described as ), respec-
tively. Auxiliary variable means the detailed steps by which information associated with current levels are trans-
formed into rates to bring about future changes. In addition, the symbol represents the sinks or sources.
Fig. 1 is a sample flow diagram for the total population, in which the total population (TP) is a level var-
iable; birth population (BP), death population (DP), and net migrated population (NP) are rate variables; and
birth rate (BR), death rate (DR), and net migration rate (NR) are auxiliary variables.
How a SD level equation is related to the system’s dynamic variations is shown in Fig. 2. Three time points
are denoted as J (past), K (present), and L (future). The step from J to K is referred to as JK and that from K
to L as KL. The duration period between successive points is named DT. Therefore, a level variable could be

Total
population
Birth population Death population

Birth rate Net migration Death rate

population

Net migration rate

Fig. 1. Flow diagram for population subsystem.

2330 X.H. Zhang et al. / Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation 13 (2008) 2328–2336

J K L
RATE.JK RATE.KL
LEVEL.J LEVEL.K LEVEL.L

Time
DT DT

Past Present Future

Fig. 2. Sketch of the level equation.

referred to as LEVEL.J, LEVEL.K, or LEVEL.L at a time point, RATE.JK and RATE.KL will function in
the duration period.

2.2. Steps of applying SD model to water resources planning

The procedures for applying SD model to water resources planning are as follows:

(a) Constructing SD model through analyses of the total system, and identifying whether the model can be
in line with the real situations by the validity test and sensitivity analysis. Accordingly, parameters and
relevance can be modified and confirmed.
(b) Identifying the sensible point of the system relative to water resources supply-demand balance based on
the results of the sensitivity analysis. In the real system, sensible points constitute the sensible set of
points (SSP), and the contents of SSP of the target systems are different from each other.
(c) Running the SD model based on the current situations (termed as base run), and then, based on the
strategies of the master plan (termed as master plan running). Thus, it is possible to distinguish the state
variables with significant differences during the original running and master plan running periods. Sub-
sequently, the strategic sensible factors within the SSP can be determined.
(d) Based on the strategic sensible factors, experiences of researchers and comments of decision-makers, the
SD model can be run with different scenarios, and thus the optimal one can be decided. The optimal
scenario can achieve the coordinated development of the society, economy and environment, and par-
ticularly, realize the water resources supply-demand balance in this study.

3. Case study of Tianjin city

3.1. Study area

Tianjin is a municipality directly under the central government of China, located at latitude 38°34 0 –40°15 0 N
and longitude 116°43 0 –118°4 0 E, and covers an area of 11,900 km2, 189 km long from south to north and
117 km wide from east to west. The annual rainfall is about 550 mm to 680 mm, 75% of which is concentrated
in June, July and August. The water resource per capita in Tianjin is 160 m3/a, which is only about 7% of the
average level in China. The total population of Tianjin in 2004 was 10.2367 million, with the gross domestic
product (GDP) being 293.188 billion RMB and the GDP per capita 31.55 RMB in 2004.

3.2. Construction of the TianjinSD model

The TianjinSD model is developed through examination of interactions among a number of system com-
ponents, production of flow diagrams that link different subsystems, and formulation of SD modeling equa-
tions using a Professional Dynamo (PD) compatible language.
The boundary of the TianjinSD model is the total administrative area of Tianjin city. The strategic planning
period ranges from 2004 to 2015. The model includes four major subsystems, i.e., population subsystem,
 X.H. Zhang et al. / Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation 13 (2008) 2328–2336 2331

economy subsystem, water pollution control subsystem and water resources subsystem. The flow diagram for
Tianjin city is shown in Fig. 3.
The population subsystem is introduced here as an example of the total urban system. Population in Tianjin
is divided into three groups as follows:

(1) Agricultural and non-agricultural populations as level variables depending on the relevant birth and
death rates.
(2) Urban population converted from the agricultural population.
(3) Net migrate population from external systems.

The main PD compatible equations for population subsystem are as below:

L; P:K ¼ P:J þ DT ðBP:JK  DP:JK þ NM:JKÞ; ð1Þ

R; BP:KL ¼ P:K BR:K; ð2Þ
R; DP:KL ¼ P:K DR:K; ð3Þ

R; NM:KL ¼ P:K NMR:K; ð4Þ
N; P ¼ Pi; ð5Þ
C; Pi ¼ 10:23; ð6Þ
A; TWDDL:K ¼ EWDDLP P:K ð7Þ

where L is the level equation, R is rate equation; N is the initial assignment value for the L equation; A is
auxiliary equation; C represents the base year assignment constant; P is population (level variable, unit:
10 000 persons); BP is birth population (level variable, unit: 10 000 persons/a); DP is death population (rate
variable, unit: 10 000 persons/a); NM is net migrants from external systems (rate variable, unit: 10 000 per-
sons/a); BR is birth rate of P (auxiliary variable); DR is dearth rate of P (auxiliary variable); NMR is net
migration rate of P (auxiliary variable); TWDDL is total water demand for daily life (auxiliary variable, unit:

IRGL
GL
NAP UR
AP IGL
Q4 LRA
ACR
DR TDWD PCAUDWD

TP
DP EWD
BP PCARDWD
CAE-W-D
Q5
NMR BR
NM SIWD WRSDB
Q1
PP VAI Q2
TWD
PCVASWC QWC
VAI PVAIWC
GVAI
EIC TWRS
GRVAI CWR WPI
IWD VASI PCVAS DWT
CCA GVAS AWD TVDS
PCDWWD DRW
CA IEP
IRVAS WCPCA
CRCA
Q3
PCCA RRSIWW TIWWD TAWW
PAVAA VAA
GVAA
PVAIWWD AWWD
VIWT VPW
GRVAA TVWT

Fig. 3. Flow diagram for Tianjin SEE system.

2332 X.H. Zhang et al. / Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation 13 (2008) 2328–2336

10 000 m3); EWDDLP is average water demand for daily life per capita (auxiliary variable, m3/person-a), and
Pi is the total population in Tianjin 2004 (constant variable).

3.3. Verification and sensitive degree analysis of TianjinSD

TianjinSD model was verified using the data of 1996–2004 by historical examination. The variables being
examined include population (P), value added of industry (VAI), industrial water demand (IWD), value added
of agriculture (VAA), and the total water demand in Tianjin (TWD). Table 1 shows the verification results, in
which all the variables examined have low relative errors (<10%).
A series of sensitivity analyses has been conducted to examine the system’s responses to variations of input
parameters and/or their combinations. To quantify the sensitivity analyses, a concept of sensitivity degree is
defined as follows:
 
DQ 
 ðtÞ X ðtÞ 
SQ ¼    ð8Þ
 QðtÞ DX ðtÞ 

where t is time; Q(t) denotes system state at time t; X(t) represents system parameter affecting the system state at
time t; SQ is sensitivity degree of state Q to parameter X; and nQ(t) and nX(t) denote increments of state Q and
parameter X at time t, respectively.
For the n state variables (Q1, Q2, . . . , Qn), the general sensitivity degree of a parameter at time t can be
defined as follows:
1 Xn
S¼ : SQ ð9Þ
n i¼1 i

where n denotes a number of state variables; S Qi is sensitivity degree of state Qi; and S is general sensitivity
degree of the n states to the parameter X.
For Tianjin city, seven variables are identified to represents the system states of the population growth,
industrial development, and the water price, and 27 parameters are analyzed to examine their impacts on
the system states. To examine the sensitivity degree of each state variable, each parameter is increased by
10% every three years over the study horizon of 2004–2015. Based on Eq. (8), four sensitivity degree values
can be obtained for each parameter–variable pair, with the average value of them depicting the general sen-
sitivity degree of the parameter to the variable. Further, according to Eq. (9), an average for all seven state
variables can be calculated for each parameter, representing the general sensitivity degree of the six system
states to the parameter. The result of the sensitivity degree analyses is shown in Fig. 4, where except the sen-
sitivities of four parameters, i.e., NMR (net migration rate), AVI (added-value of industry), PVAIWC (per
VAI water consumption) and RRSIW (rate of reaching the standard of industrial wastewater), are higher than
10%, while the others are lower than 10%, indicating the target system responds in a lower degree sensitivity to

Table 1
Verification results
Year P (104) VAI ð104 –Y Þ IWD (104 m3) VAA ð104 –Y Þ TWD (104 m3)
H S R H S R H S R H S R H S R
1996 948 948 527 527 3.66 3.66 68 68 23.35 23
1997 953 954 0.001 580 588 0.014 3.08 3.08 0.002 69 71.4 0.028 24.14 24 0.006
1998 957 960 0.003 588 656 0.117 2.79 2.78 0.002 74 74.97 0.013 21.53 23 0.046
1999 959 965 0.006 640 733 0.144 5.34 4.91 0.002 71 77.97 0.098 25.52 25 0.020
2000 1001 971 0.030 747 818 0.094 4.49 4.91 0.081 74 80.31 0.092 22.64 24 0.044
2001 1004 977 0.027 821 912 0.111 4.5 4.9 0.092 79 84.32 0.073 19.14 20 0.045
2002 1007 983 0.024 909 1018 0.120 4.98 4.95 0.090 84 88.54 0.054 19.96 21 0.052
2003 1011 989 0.022 1136 1136 0.000 5.2 4.95 0.006 90 92.97 0.037 20.87 22 0.054
2004 1024 995 0.028 1437 1300 0.095 3.67 3.66 0.048 105 97.61 0.07 22.06 23 0.043
Note: H – historical data; S – simulated data; R – relative error (%).
 X.H. Zhang et al. / Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation 13 (2008) 2328–2336 2333

30

Sensitivity value(%)
25
20
15
10
5
0

S
C

L
R
R

PC SIW

W
BR

RW
D

G
SW
D

IW
W

SI
RV

RV

IR
N

D
D

RR

RR
V

G
R
PA

V
A
PC
Parameter

Fig. 4. Results of sensitivity analyses.

most of the parameters. In addition, PNM, PVAIWC and RRSIW are identified as the system sensitive points
(SSP) of the target system.

3.4. Decision alternatives of Tianjin water resources planning

According to the SSP, the decision alternatives are introduced. The TianjinSD model is run for a period of
12 years with 2004 chosen as base year. Four alternatives are considered, one of which is the base run (TBR)
assuming that the existing pattern of human activities will be kept in the future, whereas the others are stra-
tegic alternative planning designs provided by the local authorities focusing on the SSP variables, i.e., master
plan running (MPR). MPR1 offers a balance between economic objective and water resources sustainable uti-
lization; MPR2 focuses on rapid economic development that may lead to stresses on water supplies; MPR3
emphasizes on improving the water resource management, such as water pollution control, local water policy
adjustment, and water resource allocation. Also, MPR1 to MPR3 all enhance the environmental invest rate.
Meanwhile, the decision variables considered include industrial development, cropping areas, water manage-
ment approach and migration policy.
Table 2 presents the simulation results of the four planning alternatives. Fig. 5 shows the water resources
supply-demand balance (water-supply ability divided by water-demand amount) in four alternatives. Fig. 6
Table 2
Major indices in simulation of the four planning alternatives (from 2004 to 2015)
Alternatives P (104) I ð108 –Y Þ S ð108 –Y Þ A ð108 –Y Þ O ð108 –Y Þ GDP ð108 –Y Þ PCI ð108 –Y Þ B (%) WI (%)
TBR 1270 5511 5040 165 613 11329 113 0.88 1.3
MPR 1 1170 3024 5040 165 337 8566 94 1.03 1.0
MPR 2 1270 7352 5553 174 817 13 896 153 0.79 1.1
MPR 3 1270 5956 5447 168 662 12 233 183 1.07 0.8
Notion: I: value-added of industry; S: value-added of the service industry; A: value-added of agriculture; O: value-added of other insectors;
GDP: gross domestic product; B: water resources supply-demand balance; PCI: the investment using in water resources management and
pollution control; WI: water pollution index; P: total population.

1.2
Supply-Demand index

1
0.8
0.6 TBR
MPR 1
0.4
MPR 2
0.2 MPR 3
0
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20

Year

Fig. 5. Water resources supply-demand balance in four alternatives.

2334 X.H. Zhang et al. / Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation 13 (2008) 2328–2336

1.4000

water pollution index(/)

1.2000
1.0000
0.8000
T BS
0.6000 MPR 3
0.4000 MPR 1
0.2000 MPR 2
0.0000

04

06

08

10

12

14
20

20

20

20

20

20
Year

Fig. 6. Water pollution indices in four alternatives.

shows water pollution index (pollution discharged in 2015 divided by pollution discharged in 2004) in four
alternatives.
It is implicated in Table 2, Figs. 5 and 6 that the highest GDP will be achieved through implementing MPR
2, which results the lowest volume of the water supply – demand index as well as the highest volume of the
water pollution index, and need the largest amount of fresh water and discharge the largest water contamina-
tion except TBS. It can be concluded that MPR 2 will lead to the highest risk of water pollution amongst the
MPRs.
In general, MPR 2 would obtain a higher economic return from the industrial sector (the average amount
of contamination discharging in the industrial sector per GDP value is higher than other sectors), under an
optimistic estimation of the system’s environmental conditions, expecting that economic return will in turn
provide funding to enlarge the volume of water available and to mitigate the water pollution through purchas-
ing the outside water authority, building desalinate systems, and developing waste water treatment systems.
Therefore, when economic objective is emphasized, MPR 2 would be a possible alternative.
MPR 1 would keep a balance amongst the economic return, water supplies and water quality. The overall
economic return in MPR 1, although improved water environmental quality can be obtained and could realize
water supply-demand balance, is lower than that in MPR 2.
In MPR 3, water management approaches and optimal distribution are preferred, and the overall economic
return is a little lower than that in MPR 2 due to the relative large investment to develop new technology to save
fresh water consumption per GDP value, thus achieving water supply-demand balance with higher water quality.

4. Conclusions

As an important component of the human-dominated urban SEE ecosystem, the quality and quantity of
water resources interact directly with the human being behaviors. Water resources sustainable strategic
research should be conducted based on the comprehensive understanding of the total urban complex system.
In this study, a system dynamics model (TianjinSD) is developed for water resources strategic planning in
Tianjin city. Interactions amongst a number of system components during a period of 12 years are dynami-
cally examined. Based on the SSP analysed, three proposed planning are presented according to different sce-
narios, and accordingly, the results are provided by the simulation of the TianjinSD model. Through
simulation and comparison, relative results for different decision-making procedures are obtained, implying
that the TianjinSD model can lay solid foundation for reasonable decision based on dynamic simulation with
scenario analysis.

Acknowledgements

This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 50578108), National
Key Program for Basic Research (973 Program, Grants Nos. 2006CB403304 and 2005CB724204), Sci and
Tec Development Foundation of Tianjin (No. 033113811 and No. O5YFSYSF032) and in part by the Beijing
Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. 8061002).
 X.H. Zhang et al. / Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation 13 (2008) 2328–2336 2335

Appendix

Abbreviations for variables and parameters in the TianjinSD model

No. Abbreviation Description Unit
1 AP Agricultural population (104 people)
2 NAP Non-agricultural population (104 people)
3 DP Death population (104 people/year)
4 TP Total population (104 people)
5 BP Birth population (1/year)
6 DR Death rate (1/year)
7 NMR Net migration rate (1/year)
8 NM Net migration (104 people/year)
9 BR Birth rate (1/year)
10 UR Urbanization rate
11 PCAUDWD Per capita average urban domestic water demand (l/people)
12 TDWD Total domestic water demand (104 ton)
13 PCVASWC Per capital VAS water consumption (ton/104 yuan)
14 SIWD Service industry water demand (104 ton)
15 EIC Effective irrigation coefficient
16 IWD Industrial water demand (104 ton)
17 AWD Agriculture water demand (104 ton)
18 VAI Value-added of industry (108 yuan)
19 GVAI Growth of value-added of industry (108 yuan/year)
20 GRVAI Growth rate of VAI
21 CA Cultivated area (104 mu)
22 CCA Change of cultivated area (104 mu)
23 CRCA Change rate of cultivated area (104 mu/year)
24 PCCA Per capita cultivated area (mu/people)
25 VAA Value-added of agriculture (108 yuan)
26 PAVAA Per area VAA (108yuan/mu) (108 yuan/acre)
27 GVAA Growth of value-added of agriculture (108 yuan/year)
28 GRVAA Growth rate of VAA
29 IIEP Investment in environment protection (108 yuan)
30 PCVAS Per capita VAS (108 yuan/people)
31 GVAS Growth of value-added of service (104 yuan/year)
32 VASI Value-added of the service industry (108 yuan)
33 IRVAS Increase rate of VAS
34 RRSIWW Rate of reaching the standard of industrial wastewater
35 VIWT Volume of industrial wastewater treated (104 ton)
36 TAWW Total volume of wastewater (104 ton)
37 VPW Volume of polluted water (104 ton)
38 TVWT Total volume of wastewater treated (104 ton)
39 PVAIWWD Per VAI wastewater discharge (ton/104 yuan)
40 TIWWD Total industrial wastewater discharge (104 ton)
41 AWWD Agriculture wastewater discharge (104 ton)
42 PCDWWD Per capita domestic wastewater discharge (ton/year)
43 DRW Disposal rate of waste
44 TVDS Total volume of domestic sewage (104 ton)
45 DWT Domestic wastewater treated (104 ton)
46 WPI Water pollution index
47 CWR Change of water resources (104 ton/year)
2336 X.H. Zhang et al. / Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation 13 (2008) 2328–2336

Appendix (continued)
No. Abbreviation Description Unit
48 TWRS Total water resources supply (104 ton)
49 WCPCA Water consumption per cultivated area (ton/mu)
50 TWD Total water demand (104 ton)
51 WRS-DB Water resources supply-demand balance
52 EWD Ecological water demand (104 ton)
53 CAE-W-D Change of EWD (104 ton/year)
54 ACR Annual change rate
55 LRA Lake and river area (104 mu)
56 PCARDWD Per capita average rural domestic water demand (liter/people. day)
57 TDWC Total domestic water consumption (104 ton)
58 GA Green area (mu)
59 VIWT Volume of industrial wastewater treated (104 ton)
60 PPVAI Per person VAI (104 yuan/people)
61 QWC Quantity of water changing
62 AWD Agriculture water demand (104 ton)
63 ACR Annual change rate
64 PCVIWC Per VAI water consumption (ton/104 yuan)

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