Politics Updates KCKCC

Shawnee Mission East Debate 2011
C.C.C. Politics Updates KCKCC

1
Politics Updates KCKCC
Politics Updates KCKCC ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1

```China Bashing``` .................................................................................................... 2
1NC China Currency....................................................................................................................................................................................... 3
Won`t Pass.But it Would ............................................................................................................................................................................. 6
Would PassVote Count ............................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Passage Sparks Trade War ............................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Boehner Space Links .................................................................................................................................................................................... 10
Boehner Alternative Energy Links .............................................................................................................................................................. 11
Sioux Falls Shuttles AII ................................................................................................................................................................................ 12
DeIense/Military AIIs ................................................................................................................................................................................... 13

``Àff China Currency```` ....................................................................................... 14
UQ Overwhelms Link ................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
Will PassVote Count................................................................................................................................................................................. 16
Boehner Likes New Spending ...................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Boehner Likes DeIense ................................................................................................................................................................................. 18
DeIense Link Turn ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 19

```1obs Bill``` ............................................................................................................ 20
Payroll Tax Won`t Pass ................................................................................................................................................................................ 21
Payroll Tax Cuts Don`t Help Econ .............................................................................................................................................................. 23
InIrastructure Bill Won`t Pass ...................................................................................................................................................................... 24

```Political Capital``` ............................................................................................... 25
No Political Capital ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 26

``Ècon Updates``` ................................................................................................... 27
Credit Downgrade UQ Overwhelms Link ................................................................................................................................................... 28
Credit Downgrade Inevitable ....................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Credit Downgrade Coming........................................................................................................................................................................... 30
Credit Downgrade Not Coming ................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Credit Downgrade Good ............................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Consumer ConIidence Low .......................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Consumer/Investor ConIidence Answer ...................................................................................................................................................... 38
No Super-Committee Compromise.............................................................................................................................................................. 39
No Impact To Super-Committee Failure ..................................................................................................................................................... 40
AT: Government Shutdown ......................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Econ High ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Econ Low ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Collapse Inevitable ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 45
Double Dip Now ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 46

```Space Funding``` ................................................................................................. 48
Climate Sats/Polar Orbiting Non Inherent? YUP ....................................................................................................................................... 49
AT: New Laser Tech Solves Debris ............................................................................................................................................................ 52
No Space Funding Now/NASA Cuts Now ................................................................................................................................................. 53

```NATO-U.S. Relations``` ...................................................................................... 54
#elations Low................................................................................................................................................................................................ 55

```Riders``` ............................................................................................................... 56
AT: #iders ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 57

```Covert Passage``` ................................................................................................. 58
AT: Plan is Covert/Secret ............................................................................................................................................................................. 59

2
```China Bashing```
3
1NC China Currency
China currency legislation would pass if it was brought to a vote but Boehner is blocking a
vote in the squo
Dorn 11/3
ames A., Vice President Ior academic aIIairs and Editor oI the Cato ournal, PhD in Economics, CATO Institute, 'China Looms
Large in U.S. Presidential Campaign, http://www.bjreview.com.cn/world/txt/2011-10/31/content401812.htm
The passage oI the Currency Exchange #ate Oversight #eIorm Act by the U.S. Senate, which penalizes
China Ior its "Iundamentally misaligned" currency, sends a signal that bashing China will be an
important part oI the political landscape oI this election cycle. The legislation had
bipartisan support, with 63 Senators agreeing that sanctions should be used against countries like China that
purposeIully undervalue their currencies to gain a competitive advantage. High U.S. unemployment and
sluggish growth going into an election year make China, with its solid growth and large trade surplus
with the United States, an easy target Ior politicians who are looking Ior a scapegoat Ior their
own Iailures in taking prudent actions to solve long-term problems. #epublican Senator Olympia
Snowe, one oI the co-sponsors oI the reIorm act, asserted, "China's currency manipulation has been among the greatest
impediments to our manuIacturing sector." She never mentions that high union wages and high taxes on capital Iormation
have been Iar more important in destroying U.S. jobs. Likewise, Democratic Senator Charles E. Schumer, another sponsor,
accused China oI "getting away with economic murder." He does not mention that U.S. consumers, including Iirms that rely
on intermediate goods Irom China, have greatly beneIited Irom a policy oI engagement. Such hyperbole is normal during
elections, especially presidential elections, but at this juncture there is a danger that the rhetoric will turn into reality and end
with increasing protectionism. Last year when the Democrats controlled the U.S. House oI
#epresentatives, a bill similar to the Senate's was passed by a wide margin. Although current
House Speaker ohn Boehner, a #epublican, has called the reIorm act "dangerous," there are many
#epublicans who support sanctions on China. Meanwhile, President Barack Obama has accused
China oI "currency manipulation," though he later retracted that statement, and blames China Ior "gaming the
trading system." Imposing tariIIs on China Ior undervaluing its currency, which the reIorm act considers a Iorm oI
subsidy and an unIair trade practice, would not solve the U.S. economic malaisebut it would invite retaliation.
Schumer already sees the United States in a "trade war" with China. He doesn't seem to recognize that trade is not a
zero-sum game, in which one party wins and the other loses. That type oI mercantilist
thinkingthat exports (trade surpluses) are good and imports (trade deIicits) badis at the heart oI today's
vitriolic attacks on China. The rhetoric coming out oI Washington, including by #epublican
presidential candidate Mitt #omney, blaming China Ior cheating and Ior unIair trade practices,
has resonated with many voters who see a rising China as a threat to U.S. economic and
military power.

The plan is unpopular with Boehner and causes him to put the bill up for a vote
Moskowitz 10
Clara, #eporter, Space.com, 'Election #esults Could Put NASA`s Future Under Fire, http://www.space.com/9483-election-results-
put-nasa-Iuture-Iire.html
With #epublicans set to lead the House Iollowing the recent midterm elections, new doubts are rising
over the state oI NASA's 2011 budget. A bipartisan NASA authorization bill signed by
President Obama last month allocated $19 billion Ior NASA next year ? a modest boost Irom NASA's 2010 budget oI
$18.3 billion. But Iunds Ior that bill have not yet gone through the appropriations process by
Congress. Newly elected GOP leaders say they will work to cut government spending and
reduce the deIicit. House #epublican leader ohn Boehner (#?OH) said his party will aim to cut non-
military discretionary spending back to 2008 levels. That would take NASA's budget down
to $17.3 billion ? a move some say would risk the United States' competitiveness in space

4
Recent arms sales to Taiwan put relations at the brink - passage would kill relations,
increase unemployment, cause a trade war, and send the global economy back into
recession
Martina 10-10
Michael Martina, 10-10-2011, 'China: Currency law would hurt U.S. jobs growth, http://news.yahoo.com/china-u-vote-
currency-bill-result-trade-war-083939139.html
BEIING (#euters) - China warned the United States that it would damage relations, and
American jobs, iI it Iorces Beijing to let its currency rise under a law to be voted on in the
U.S. Senate on Tuesday. Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai on Monday underlined
Beijing's opposition to the bill, saying it could trigger a trade war and hold back global
economic recovery. He said that relations could also be hurt by U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. "(The currency bill)
in no way represents the reality oI the economic and trade relationship between China and
the United States, and it might have an adverse impact on the development oI the relations
between the two countries," he said. "Should the proposed legislation become law, the only
result would be a trade war between China and the U.S. and that would be a lose-lose
situation Ior both sides," said Cui, who currently heads the China delegation Ior G20 negotiations. China's central
bank, and commerce and Ioreign ministries last week jointly warned that enactment oI the proposed currency law could lead
to a trade war between the world's two top economies. "II this type oI situation occurs, oI course it would be
detrimental to the development oI economic and trade relations between China and the U.S.
and detrimental to U.S. economic and job growth," Cui said. "At the same time, it would
hinder global economic recovery." The White House has voiced concerns that the legislation, which calls Ior
tariIIs on imports Irom countries with deliberately undervalued currencies, could violate international trade rules. Many
economists say China holds down the value oI its yuan to give its exporters an edge in
global markets. Beijing says it is committed to gradual reIorm oI the yuan, which has risen
30 percent against the dollar since 2005. U.S. supporters oI the bill say the Senate is almost certain to approve
it. But the bill Iaces stronger opposition in the House where it may never Iace a vote. PE#SISTENT I##ITANT Cui also
reiterated China's stance that U.S. arms sales to Taiwan seriously undermine the nation's
core interests and would harm ties between Washington and Beijing, weeks aIter the United States
said it would sell $5.85 billion in military hardware to the island China calls a breakaway province. The sales to
Taiwan have been a persistent irritant in Sino-U.S. ties, adding to economic strains
between Washington and Beijing. "These arms sales are not consistent with the trend and
requirement oI peaceIul relations currently prevailing across the Taiwan Strait," Cui said. "From
a long term perspective, I also don't think it serves the United States' own interests." The Obama administration said last
week that it is weighing Iresh arms sales to Taiwan as part oI a sweeping eIIort to deter any Chinese attack on the island.
Such supplies would be on top oI plans sent to Congress on September 21 to sell new hardware and deIense services,
including upgrades Ior Taiwan's 145 F-16 A/B Iighter aircraIt, bought in 1992. Cui said China welcomed a
positive and constructive U.S. military presence in the PaciIic, but added that "some
outside powers" had inIlamed tensions in the disputed South China Sea. He did not speciIy which
countries he was reIerring to. "I think some people are stirring up the issue. That is to say, some people don't want to see
stability in the region or the development oI relations between China and relevant countries," Cui said. China, the Philippines,
Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan have conIlicting claims oI sovereignty over parts oI the potentially oil-and gas-rich
body oI water crossed by key shipping lanes and dotted with uninhabitable small islands, rocks and reeIs. China's growing
military might at sea is triggering regional jitters that have Ied into long-standing territorial disputes, but Beijing insists it is
merely holding to its centuries-old sovereignty over the waters.
Collapse of relations cause US-China War
Kerr 99
Paul, #esearch analyst at the Arms Control Association 'Taiwan: Maintain the Current Ambiguity, CSIS Prospectus, Volume 1,
Number 1 - Fall 1999,http://www.csis.org/pubs/prospectus/99FallKerr.html
Stable U.S.-China relations can also help prevent Chinese aggression towards Taiwan. The
bottom line is whether or not Beijing can be persuaded to accept the status quo between the two countries. The U.S.
commitment to Taiwan inextricably links relations between Taipei and Beijing to the
relationship between Beijing and Washington. II the P#C perceives other areas oI its
relationship with the United States to be strong, such as U.S.-China trade and negotiations over China's
membership in the WTO, it has less incentive to disrupt the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.
5
Provocative U.S. actions may lead Beijing to believe that it has little to gain by
maintaining peaceIul relations with the United States.
Extinction
Straits Times 00
Ching Cheong, 'No One Gains in War Over Taiwan, une 25, Lexis Nexis.
THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait war escalating into a Iull-scale war
between the US and China. II Washington were to conclude that splitting China would better serve its national
interests, then a Iull-scale war becomes unavoidable. ConIlict on such a scale would embroil other
countries Iar and near and -horror oI horrors -raise the possibility oI a nuclear war. Beijing has
already told the US and apan privately that it considers any country providing bases and logistics support to any US Iorces
attacking China as belligerent parties open to its retaliation. In the region, this means South Korea, apan, the Philippines and,
to a lesser extent, Singapore. II China were to retaliate, east Asia will be set on Iire. And the conIlagration may not end there
as opportunistic powers elsewhere may try to overturn the existing world order. With the US distracted, #ussia may seek to
redeIine Europe's political landscape. The balance oI power in the Middle East may be similarly upset by the likes oI Iraq. In
south Asia, hostilities between India and Pakistan, each armed with its own nuclear arsenal, could enter a new and dangerous
phase. Will a Iull-scale Sino-US war lead to a nuclear war? According to General Matthew #idgeway, commander oI the US
Eighth Army which Iought against the Chinese in the Korean War, the US had at the time thought oI using nuclear weapons
against China to save the US Irom military deIeat. In his book The Korean War, a personal account oI the military and
political aspects oI the conIlict and its implications on Iuture US Ioreign policy, Gen #idgeway said that US was conIronted
with two choices in Korea -truce or a broadened war, which could have led to the use oI nuclear weapons. II the US had to
resort to nuclear weaponry to deIeat China long beIore the latter acquired a similar capability, there is little hope oI winning a
war against China 50 years later, short oI using nuclear weapons. The US estimates that China possesses about 20 nuclear
warheads that can destroy major American cities. Beijing also seems prepared to go Ior the nuclear option. A Chinese
military oIIicer disclosed recently that Beijing was considering a review oI its "non Iirst use" principle regarding nuclear
weapons. Major-General Pan Zhangqiang, president oI the military-Iunded Institute Ior Strategic Studies, told a gathering at
the Woodrow Wilson International Centre Ior Scholars in Washington that although the government still abided by that
principle, there were strong pressures Irom the military to drop it. He said military leaders considered the use oI nuclear
weapons mandatory iI the country risked dismemberment as a result oI Ioreign intervention. Gen #idgeway said that
should that come to pass, we would see the destruction oI civilisation. There would be no victors in
such a war. While the prospect oI a nuclear Armaggedon over Taiwan might seem inconceivable, it cannot be ruled out
entirely, Ior China puts sovereignty above everything else.

6
Won`t Pass.But it Would
Elections will put pressure on Congress to act on China currency manipulation but Boehner
is holding strong a preventing a vote
Hui 11/1
u, #eporter, People`s Daily Online, 'US gearing up Ior trade war with China?,
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90780/7632067.html
Beijing, Nov. 1 (PD Online) --The U.S. House Ways and Means Committee recently held a hearing on China-U.S. trade
relations. At the hearing, the #MB exchange rate issue again became the Iocus oI intense debate, and certain Congress
members even threatened a trade war with China. The long-running #MB exchange rate issue has been central
to Washington's most recent political struggles since the U.S. Senate passed the Currency Exchange #ate Oversight #eIorm
Act oI 2011 on Oct. 11. In order to win the 2012 presidential election, presidential candidates oI
both the #epublican and Democratic parties are competing to show oII their tough stance. Former
Massachusetts Governor Mitt #omney, who is regarded as the #epublican Party`s Irontrunner Ior the 2012 presidential
race, promises to designate China as a currency manipulator iI he is elected to the
presidency. Demetrios Marantis, deputy U.S. trade representative, said that since China joined the World Trade
Organization, the U.S. exports to China have been growing Iaster than its exports to any other country, making China the
third biggest export market oI the United States, only aIter Canada and Mexico. Moreover, the United States sold 113 billion
U.S. dollars worth oI products and services to China in 2010. The U.S. Department oI Commerce has estimated that every 1
billion U.S. dollars worth oI goods exports can create 6,000 job opportunities Ior the United States and China`s continued
rapid economic growth will undoubtedly bring the United States more job opportunities. U.S. President Barack Obama once
said that the success oI one country should not be at the price oI other countries, and they could achieve win-win results.
Marantis noted that the precondition Ior the United States and China to achieve win-win results is that both must reach a
strong consensus on challenges and opportunities in their bilateral ties and work together to deal with them. Speaker oI the
US House oI #epresentatives ohn Boehner recently reaIIirmed his opposition to the bill passed by
the Senate on China's alleged #MB exchange rate manipulation and stressed that it would be "a very
dangerous policy." Boehner said that Obama ought to "stand up and take a position" in terms
oI the #MB exchange rate issue. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson recently said in Washington D.C. that it was
not a right approach to threaten other countries through legislation.
Pressure from the Senate and Romney increase the likelihood of a vote-China will be used
as a scapegoat
Tatlow 11/2
Didi Kirsten, #eporter, The New York Times,
It`s 'too sensational, he said wryly, borrowing a line about currency Irom the Irish writer`s play 'The Importance oI Being
Earnest to reIer to a bill passed recently by the U.S. Senate that aims to label China a currency manipulator. Both the
Senate and Mitt #omney, a leading #epublican candidate Ior president, say that China is
deliberately keeping its currency low to liIt exports, thereby gaining an unIair advantage in
international trade. Ballooning trade surpluses, in turn, have swelled China`s coIIers at a time when other countries
are looking under soIa cushions Ior coins to balance their budgets. For nearly a decade, the value
oI the renminbi has been the subject oI increasingly acrimonious debate on Capitol Hill, a
source oI Irustration Ior China`s trading partners and a topic on which many Chinese and resident Ioreign
economists have a very diIIerent perspective Irom their counterparts in the West. This diIIerence, which is likely to
be much in evidence at the Group oI 20 meetings in Cannes this weekend, leads to expectations
that China is willing and able to help the world out oI its economic problems a perception that Ilared, then sputtered, aIter
Europe sent envoys to China to solicit Iinancing Ior the euro zone`s bailout and came away empty-handed.

China currency bill won`t pass but pressure is mounting
Qingfen and Yanrong 11/1
Ding and Zhao, #eporters, China Daily, 'Govt warns oI payback iI yuan bill is passed, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/usa/us/2011-
11/01/content14016229.htm
He was directing his stern comments toward legislation passed earlier this month by the US Senate. The bill will allow the
US to impose tariIIs on Chinese goods iI it Iinds that China is manipulating its allegedly undervalued currency. The bill,
which US lawmakers claim will help protect American jobs Irom Iiltering into China, will now be sent to the
House oI #epresentatives Ior their approval, which is unlikely to happen. "Nations worldwide
always like to target China and its policies, including its currency, when they have their own problems," He said. The US
7
unemployment rate has remained above 9 percent since April, although the country's economic growth returned to 2.5
percent in the third quarter, easing Iears that the US economy was Ialling into a deeper recession. Economists have warned
that the US recovery is precarious. Chinese experts said US lawmakers are pushing oII their economic
problems to China by blaming the central government's policies on the yuan exchange rate, especially as the 2012
US presidential election draws near. China's yuan has so Iar appreciated 3.7 percent this year, and the nation
continues to work at reducing inIlation, said Vice-Minister oI Finance Zhu Guangyao on Friday. Zhou
Xiaoyan, director oI the Bureau oI Fair Trade Ior Imports and Exports at the Ministry oI Commerce, said recently that new
trade protectionism measures targeting Chinese exports is rising, citing the US economic slowdown and Europe's debt woes.
Cheng Siwei, Iormer vice-chairman oI the Standing Committee oI the National People's Congress oI China, called on the US
to stop pressuring China on its economic policies "Putting political pressure on Chinese currency is nonsense," Cheng said at
the US-China Innovation and Cooperation conIerence on Monday. China is reIorming its currency policy, Cheng said, and
the ultimate goal is to make the yuan Ireely exchangeable. "The Congress' passing oI the bill last month
may be related to the coming election year, but the political pressure cannot really work on
yuan's appreciation," he said. Ceasing to hype up trade issues between China and US is an important way to solve the
US' massive deIicits, he added.

8
Would Pass-Vote Count
Currency reform would pass if it came to a vote
Roys 11/2
Louise, Contributing #eporter, All Voices.com, 'Visclosky Speaks Out Against Chinese Currency Manipulation,
http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/10772501-visclosky-speaks-out-against-chinese-currency-manipulation
H.#. 639, the Currency #eIorm Ior Fair Trade Act, would address the issue oI currency
manipulation by recognizing in law what we already know that currency misalignment is
an export subsidy. The measure would take commonsense steps to ensure our Treasury Department appropriately
identiIies countries that engage in this unIair policy, and allow the United States to place countervailing duties on imports
Irom oIIending nations. The Currency #eIorm Ior Fair Trade Act has 230 cosponsors, more than
enough to pass the House. In Iact, just over a year ago, drawing on the support oI
American labor and manuIacturing, the House expressed its intent to Iorce China to allow
the Yuan to reIlect an exchange rate set by the open market. On September 23, 2010, the House
approved the Currency #eIorm Ior Fair Trade Act (H.#. 2378) by an overwhelming, bipartisan
vote oI 348 to 79. UnIortunately, the Senate did not act on this legislation. More than 260
oI the Members who voted in Iavor oI that measure remain in the House. This is a
bipartisan issue. I serve as Vice-Chairman oI the Congressional Steel Caucus and I am proud to say that the one oI the
lead sponsors oI H.#. 639 is Caucus Chairman, #epresentative Tim Murphy.
9
Passage Sparks Trade War
Passage of China Currency legislation sparks a trade war-statements prove
Qingfen and Yanrong 11/1
Ding and Zhao, #eporters, China Daily, 'Govt warns oI payback iI yuan bill is passed, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/usa/us/2011-
11/01/content14016229.htm
BEIING / NEW YO#K - Chinese government will not sit idle iI a United States bill targeting the
yuan becomes law, said the Ministry oI Commerce on Monday, warning that retaliation will come
swiItly. "The currency legislation proposed by the US would hurt the interests oI both China and
the US. We are strongly against it," said He Ning, a director-general at the Ministry oI Commerce. "II it
eventually passes and becomes law, we cannot ignore it and will deIinitely reciprocate in kind," said
He, who reIused to elaborate. "We have readied ourselves with measures to deal with the possible
outcome Irom the US." He's remarks came as President Hu intao is expected to attend the G20 summit Irom Nov 3-
4 in Cannes, France. Leaders Irom the 20 nations will discuss how to address the global economic recession and the
spreading European debt crisis, among other pressing economic problems. "I am not sure whether the Chinese currency
(issue) will be talked about or not" during the G20 meeting, He said. But oIIicials Irom the European Union
said last weekend they will pressure China to Iurther appreciate the yuan during the G20.

10
Boehner Space Links

Boehner doesn`t like space spending - has voted against it
Klamper 10, Amy, Writer Ior Space News, 'Election #esult Could Increase Pressure on NASA Budget 11-5-10,
http://www.spacenews.com/policy/101103-election-brings-new-leadership-nasa-oversight-committees.html
Opinions vary on what the House leadership change means Ior NASA, although there is some
agreement that the agency, already struggling with a mismatch between the programs it is charged with executing and the
Iunding it has available, will Iace additional downward pressure on its budget. House Minority Leader ohn Boehner (#-
Ohio), Ior example, the presumptive speaker oI the House, has pledged to cut domestic Iederal spending to
2008 levels, a move that could put the $19 billion authorized by Congress Ior NASA in 2011 in
jeopardy. Boehner voted against that measure, which ultimately passed and was signed into law by
U.S. President Barack Obama Oct. 11. 'We`re ready to cut spending to pre-stimulus, pre-bailout
levels, saving taxpayers $100 billion almost immediately, Boehner said in a weekly #epublican address Oct. 30.
'And we`re ready to put in place strict budget caps that limit spending Irom here on out, to ensure that Washington is no
longer on this spending binge.
Boehner against new NASA spending
Douglas 10, William, Heraldnet, 'Boehner's challenge: Uniting establishment lawmakers, emboldened Ireshmen, 11-3-10,
http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20101103/NEWS02/711039802/-1/taxonomylist
Boehner also has called Ior extending tax cuts and reining in Iederal spending to be priorities. On spending, he's
called Ior ending the practice oI rolling many Iederal programs into comprehensive spending bills in Iavor oI requiring speciIic votes
agency by agency. "Members shouldn't have to vote Ior big increases at the Commerce Department just
because they support NASA," he said last month in a speech at the American Enterprise Institute. "Each department
and agency should have to justiIy itselI each year to the Iull House and Senate, and be judged on its own." Some Boehner allies
suggest that he'll propose a package oI substantial spending cuts in the $100 billion range to keep
conservatives and tea party supporters happy.
11
Boehner Alternative Energy Links
Boehner HATES alternative energy
On the Issues 8
'#ated 0 by the CAF, indicating opposition to energy independence,
http://www.issues2000.org/OH/ohnBoehnerEnergyOil.htm#06n-CAF
#ated 0 by the CAF, indicating opposition to energy independence. Boehner scores 0
by CAF on energy issues OnTheIssues.org interprets the 2005-2006 CAF scores as Iollows: 0 - 30:
opposition oI energy independence (approx. 206 members) 30 - 70: mixed record on energy independence
(approx. 77 members) 70-100: support Ior energy independence (approx. 183 members)

Boehner hates capping carbon emissions and prefers offshore drilling
Harding 11
Alison, #eporter, CNN Political Tracker, 'Boehner: Obama causing energy costs to rise
Washington (CNN) - House Speaker ohn Boehner said Thursday that the Obama administration is
exacerbating rising energy costs and adding an extra Iinancial burden to struggling
American Iamilies and small businesses. "The Obama administration has consistently blocked
American energy production that would lower costs and create jobs in our country,"
Boehner said at a press conIerence announcing a House GOP initiative to push Ior more
domestic energy production. "They've canceled new leases Ior exploration, jeopardized our
nuclear energy industry, and imposed a de Iacto moratorium on Iuture drilling in our
country. They've even pushed a cap-and-trade energy tax that the president himselI admitted would
cause the price oI energy to skyrocket," Boehner said. #epublicans have repeatedly criticized the
administration and congressional Democrats Ior what they perceive to be a lackluster response to the rapidly rising cost oI oil.
12
Sioux Falls Shuttles Aff

Boehner hates the shuttle program
Plate 4/30
Emily, #eporter, Simpleton Times, 'Space Shuttle Launch Delayed to #etrieve Camcorder,
http://m.jacksonville.com/opinion/blog/424404/empty-plate/2011-04-29/space-shuttle-launch-delayed-retrieve-camcorder
On Friday, NASA scrubbed the Iinal launch oI the space shuttle Endeavour and delayed it Ior at least 48
hours. NASA originally scheduled liItoII Ior 3:47 PM. On its Iinal mission, Endeavor will carry a $1.5 billion spirograph to capture stardust
and use it draw Iancy spirograph representations oI the universe. Scientists have long wondered how spirograph images generated on shuttle
missions would diIIer Irom spirograph images drawn by children on earth. The oIIicial reason Ior the delay was two dysIunctional heaters in
one oI the three auxiliary power units. NASA said the hydrazine is super cold and that it may Ireeze the rudder controls iI the shuttle launch
took place as scheduled. They have built redundant systems into the shuttle in case one system Iails, but they said all systems should be "go" at
launch time. Back at Ground Control, one oI our crack reporters, im Talbot, overheard an unidentiIied NASA administrator yelling at one oI
the astronauts while standing outside his oIIice. Apparently, the astronaut Iorgot his camcorder and wanted to retrieve it. He reasoned that it
was the last Endeavor mission and that he needed to record it Ior posterity. When the administrator suggested the mission needed to go Iorward
and that NASA would record everything, the astronaut went into a screaming Iit. Eventually, the administrator relented, agreed to delay the
mission and advised the raging astronaut to take some Lexapro. Talbot swears he heard sobbing and back patting Irom behind the closed door.
Talbot was unable to identiIy the astronaut and reIuses to divulge the administrator's name, but he says the big boss was high up the chain oI
command. He was almost certain the astronaut in question was not Mark Kelly, the husband oI U.S. #epresentative Gabrielle GiIIords. Kelly is
the leader oI a crew that includes pilot Gregory H. ohnson; mission specialists Michael Fincke, Greg ChamitoII and Andrew Feustel; and
European Space Agency astronaut #oberto Vittori. When asked about the delay, President Barack Obama said he understood the need to
capture the history oI this launch, but that the appropriate time to retrieve the camcorder would have been beIore leaving home Ior a shuttle
launch-not when you're about to board the spacecraIt. The Honorable ohn Boehner saw the whole incident in a
diIIerent light: "This yet is another example oI government waste," said Boehner, "Now the
President has told us we need this shuttle mission, but the American people have clearly
said we need to slash this excessive kind oI spending. I call on the President to scrub this
mission and permanently end these wasteIul government handouts to NASA."
13
Defense/Military Affs
Even if Boehner would normally support your plan he hates it in the squo-statements
prove that he wants to cut defense
Allen 11/3
onathan, Senior #eporter and winner oI the National Press Foundation Award, Politico, 'ohn Boehner bound` by trigger iI super
committee Iails, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/67567.html
House Speaker ohn Boehner (#-Ohio) said Thursday that he intends to abide by automatic cuts to
deIense and domestic programs iI the congressional supercommittee can`t come up with $1.2 trillion cuts over 10 years. 'I
would Ieel bound by it, Boehner said. 'It was part oI the agreement. And so either we succeed or we are in the
sequester. The sequester is ugly. Why? Because we don`t anybody to go there. That`s why we have to succeed. When
Boehner, President Barack Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry #eid (D-Nev.) cut a deal this summer to raise the
nation`s debt limit, they created the supercommittee and charged it with Iinding between $1.2 trillion and $1.5 trillion in
deIicit-reduction measures. They also put in place a process, called sequestration, that would Iorce automatic cuts in 2013 iI
the supercommittee Iailed to hit its mark. But deIense-minded oIIicials are working to make sure that Congress acts to avert
such serious cuts to the Pentagon`s budget, which would be in line to take about halI the pain. DeIense Secretary Leon
Panetta has told lawmakers that the sequestration would be debilitating Ior the DeIense Department, and longtime Boehner
ally Buck McKeon, the chairman oI the House Armed Services Committee, has been rallying lawmakers to the idea that
Congress should write legislation overturning the sequestration in the event that the supercommittee Iails to act.
Complicating matters is concern in the deIense industry that supercommittee cuts to
deIense programs could also go beyond slashing Iat. While Boehner said he would Ieel
bound by the deal he made with Obama and #eid, he also made clear he spoke Ior himselI
'personally a qualiIication that could leave wiggle room iI his colleagues decide they are not willing to let the cuts
go into eIIect.
14
``Àff China Currency````

15
UQ Overwhelms Link
Uniqueness overwhelms the link and G-20 pressure solves the impact
-Obama veto
-GOP leaders block
-other countries stop China
King & Spalding 11/1
International Law Firm, #eporters, Association oI Corporate Counsel, 'Passage oI China currency legislation uncertain, but could the
ongoing debate lead to helpIul changes Ior manuIacturers?, http://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?gc7539908-2b4I-4d6c-
bI29-eacd53dc307e
Other key elements oI the legislation include a more robust requirement Ior Treasury to inIorm Congress oI misaligned
currencies that could ultimately lead to the request Ior dispute settlement consultations in the World Trade Organization
('WTO) absent appropriate elimination oI currency practices by the country in question. The bill`s prospects Ior
passage are uncertain. House #epublican leaders have given no indication that the bill will
be considered in that chamber, and the Obama Administration has also signaled its
concerns about whether certain aspects oI the bill meet the international trade obligations
oI the United States. These attitudes and positions do not bode well Ior the legislation,
although this is a Iluid situation. For example, #epublican presidential candidate Mitt #omney stated recently his intent on
his Iirst day in oIIice to direct the U.S. Department oI Commerce ('Commerce) to assess countervailing duties on Chinese
imports iI China Iails to move quickly to Iloat its currency. He also has stated his belieI that no new legislation is required to
proceed in this manner. Thus, it is possible that many oI the bill`s objectives may be realized even
in the absence oI Iinal passage, though thus Iar the Obama Administration has declined to
take the necessary steps. The spotlight on China`s currency practices will continue to intensiIy. China`s currency
practices have been at issue in multiple investigations, although, to date, Commerce has declined to initiate a countervailing
duty investigation oI currency undervaluation practices despite the presentation oI inIormation to initiate such an
investigation. As a result, even iI The Currency Exchange #ate Oversight #eIorm Act oI 2011 does not become law as a
stand-alone bill, it is possible that certain elements oI the legislation could be implemented
through trade remedy proceedings or other means should the U.S. trade agencies modiIy
their practices. U.S. manuIacturers are not alone in attempting to deal with China`s
currency practices. Brazil has undertaken an initiative designed to spark a currency
discussion at the WTO. Mexican steel producers are urging the government oI Mexico to place
currency issues on the agenda oI the 2012 G-20 summit, which will take place in Mexico. In sum, this issue will
be Iront and center around the world Ior months to come
16
Will Pass-Vote Count
Currency reform will pass now-bipartisan support
Roys 11/2
Louise, Contributing #eporter, All Voices.com, 'Visclosky Speaks Out Against Chinese Currency Manipulation,
http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/10772501-visclosky-speaks-out-against-chinese-currency-manipulation
H.#. 639, the Currency #eIorm Ior Fair Trade Act, would address the issue oI currency
manipulation by recognizing in law what we already know that currency misalignment is
an export subsidy. The measure would take commonsense steps to ensure our Treasury Department appropriately
identiIies countries that engage in this unIair policy, and allow the United States to place countervailing duties on imports
Irom oIIending nations. The Currency #eIorm Ior Fair Trade Act has 230 cosponsors, more than
enough to pass the House. In Iact, just over a year ago, drawing on the support oI
American labor and manuIacturing, the House expressed its intent to Iorce China to allow
the Yuan to reIlect an exchange rate set by the open market. On September 23, 2010, the House
approved the Currency #eIorm Ior Fair Trade Act (H.#. 2378) by an overwhelming, bipartisan
vote oI 348 to 79. UnIortunately, the Senate did not act on this legislation. More than 260
oI the Members who voted in Iavor oI that measure remain in the House. This is a
bipartisan issue. I serve as Vice-Chairman oI the Congressional Steel Caucus and I am proud to say that the one oI the
lead sponsors oI H.#. 639 is Caucus Chairman, #epresentative Tim Murphy.
17
Boehner Likes New Spending
Boehner is committed to new spending
Wingfield 10/27
Brain, #eporter, Bloomberg, 'Boehner Demands $2 Billion Ior Ohio Plant AIter Solyndra, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-
10-27/boehner-wants-2b-Ior-ohio-plant-post-solyndra.html
House Speaker ohn Boehner attacked the Obama administration Ior Iinancing Iailed solar-panel
maker Solyndra LLC, saying government shouldn`t pick winners and losers. That hasn`t
stopped him Irom demanding that the U.S. make a winner oI a nuclear-Iuel plant in Ohio,
his home state. Boehner is backing a $2 billion Energy Department loan guarantee sought by
USEC Inc. (USU) Ior its American CentriIuge Plant in Piketon, Ohio, aimed at enriching uranium Ior commercial
nuclear reactors. 'When it comes to emerging energy technologies, the #epublicans don`t want
to pick winners and losers -- unless it`s nuclear power, Ellen Vancko, nuclear energy and climate-
change project manager in the Washington oIIice oI the Union oI Concerned Scientists, said in an interview. The collapse oI
Solyndra, which Iiled Ior bankruptcy protection last month, two years aIter receiving a $535 million Iederal loan guarantee,
isn`t a reason to withhold Iinancing Irom USEC, Boehner said in a Sept. 30 posting on his website. He cited a promise by
Obama in his 2008 presidential campaign to aid the company. 'In the midst oI the Solyndra controversy that has raised
serious questions about the Obama administration`s oversight oI taxpayer dollars, hundreds oI Southern Ohio workers stand
to lose their jobs iI the Obama administration reneges on the president`s promise to support an energy project in the small
town oI Piketon, Ohio, Boehner wrote. 'I urge the administration to not betray the citizens oI Ohio.
18
Boehner Likes Defense
Boehner hates defense cuts and loves military spending
Eaglen 11/1
Mackenzie, #eporter, The Heritage Foundation, 'Speaker oI the House Draws a Bright #ed Line: No More DeIense Cuts,
http://blog.heritage.org/2011/11/01/speaker-oI-the-house-draws-a-bright-red-line-no-more-deIense-cuts/
The U.S. military has already contributed more to debt and deIicit reduction than any other Iederal agency. Speaker oI the
House ohn Boehner (#OH), recently sent a clear message to the congressional 'super
committee charged with producing additional debt reduction plans: The deIense budget
has already coughed up enough. Notingcorrectlythat members oI the military have 'taken
more than their Iair share oI the hits this year alone, Speaker Boehner urged politicians to
look elsewhere Ior savings. This is a welcome acknowledgement by leadership to the entire House oI
#epresentatives that deIense budgets have not simply just been 'on the table. The military`s spending plans have been
drastically cut over the past three years. UnIortunately, too many Members oI Congress and the American public are unaware
oI the deIense cuts oI the past several years and their consequences, including job losses Ior highly skilled workers in the
shipbuilding, deIense, and aerospace production workIorces. Now that the Speaker oI the House has drawn a
clear line in the sand against additional deIense cuts, the pressure is on Ior Congress to Iocus its eIIorts
exactly where they belong: reIorming the Big Three entitlements.
19
Defense Link Turn
Even if lawmakers vote for defense cuts they would restore funding for the plan
Chaddock 11/11
Gail #ussell, #eporter, Christian Science Monitor, 'What happens iI deIicit super committee Iails? Maybe nothing,
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2011/1103/What-happens-iI-deIicit-super-committee-Iails-Maybe-nothing
It`s common Ior lawmakers to vote deIense cuts, Ior example, then restore them in a
subsequent 'emergency spending package. Few labels are as Iatal in congressional
politics as the charge oI being weak on deIense. 'Everyone comes to the deIense oI
deIense, says ulian Zelizer, a congressional historian at Princeton University in New ersey. A Congress elected
on a pledge not to cut deIense is not likely to enIorce the cuts mandated by an outgoing
Congress, he adds. 'They`re setting up a political dynamic that will make it very diIIicult to go
through with it. Another Iactor in this mix is how seriously lawmakers take the threat oI sanctions Irom Wall Street
and a downgrade Irom rating agencies, iI Congress Iails to IulIill its own plan to get the nation back on a sustainable Iiscal
path. 'Wall Street works oII expectations, not events, says Stan Collender, a longtime congressional budget analyst with
Qorvis Communications in Washington. 'I don`t think there`s any expectation that the super
committee is going to succeed. 'Allowing the cuts to be triggered doesn`t mean they will
take eIIect immediately . not until 2013, he adds. Members oI Congress and the candidates eager to
replace them "will have a year to talk about it going into the 2012 elections.
20
```1obs Bill```
21
Payroll Tax Won`t Pass
Payroll tax cuts extension won`t pass-star this card, gives a gazillion reasons
-won`t be pushed until December, only political posturing
-GOP uses new tactics to block and Iilibuster
-won`t be included in Super Committee, they Iail
-gridlock and partisan Iighting
-perceived as expensive
-GOP not supportive oI temporary relieI
Beutler 11/1
Brian, #eporter and Washington Correspondent, Talking Points Memo, 'Senate Dems Face Major Challenge On Key Part oI Obama
obs Bill, http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/11/senate-dems-Iace-major-challenge-on-key-part-oI-obama-jobs-bill.php
Senate Democrats will continue to Iorce #epublicans to Iilibuster popular pieces oI President
Obama`s jobs bill in the days weeks ahead to bolster their narrative that #epublicans would
rather see the economy Iail than help Obama, or raise taxes by even a Iraction oI a percent on millionaires
and billionaires. But sometime between now and the end oI the year, Dems will either have to interrupt their strategy or risk
watching as two key provisions that helped bolster the economy this year lapse, and threaten what`s already expected to be
modest economic growth in 2012. Two months Irom today, a two percent payroll tax cut Ior employees,
and a measure extending unemployment beneIits Ior people unable to Iind new jobs are both set to expire. They were part oI
the deal Obama negotiated with #epublican leaders at the end oI last year to extend all oI the Bush tax cuts Ior two years. Together, they put nearly $200 billion in consumer pockets, and prevented
lapsing unemployment and stimulus bill beneIits Irom harming the economy in 2011. These temporary beneIits are now built into the country`s economic baseline, and many experts warn that iI they
expire, it will act as 'anti-stimulus at a time when the economy needs more, not less juice. For these reasons, extending payroll tax cuts and UI beneIits is distinct Irom inIrastructure, state aid, and the
other provisions oI Obama`s jobs bill. II #epublicans block the latter, nothing changes and Democrats can take the argument to the public. II #epublicans block the
Iormer, it will hurt the economy at a time when Democrats are desperate to improve it. That means Iresh tactics.
According to a top Senate Dem aide, Democrats probably won`t put the issue on the Iloor until later
in the year, to increase the public`s sense oI urgency about renewing both programs. And they hope, too,
that negative press and public hostility about the #epublicans` continued patten oI obstruction will make them more willing
to deal on must-pass measures. 'The point oI holding it back is to soIten #epublicans up beIore we get to that vote and get
closer to the deadline, the aide said. But the Iact is, #epublicans have mastered the technique oI using
hard deadlines as leverage over Democrats. And iI they Iollow suit now, Dems will probably have
to negotiate new ways to pay Ior the plans without raising taxes. 'It`ll be tough because 75 percent oI
the country agrees with |taxing millionaires|, the aide said. Obama has actually proposed to deepen and broaden the payroll
tax holiday reducing the tax by an additional percent on employees and dropping it three percent Ior employers. Taken
together with extending unemployment beneIits, this constitutes signiIicantly more than halI the cost oI Obama`s jobs bill.
It`s possible the deIicit Super Committee will include these policies in recommendations
due by November 23 iI members are able to identiIy signiIicantly more than the $1.2 trillion in
deIicit reduction required by the debt limit law. A big iI. II the Committee gridlocks or can
only agree on a small package, then both measures could easily become tangled in another
partisan Iight over budget cuts during the holidays. House GOP sources didn`t comment on this dynamic,
or the leverage they may have over Democrats iI the Iight over the renewing the provisions comes down to the wire. But in
September, House GOP leaders issued a memo to #epublicans listing both unemployment insurance
and payroll tax cuts as potential points oI common ground with Democrats. But they added many
caveats. 'The President has proposed a number oI reIorms to the Unemployment Insurance (UI)
system, including bridge to work` programs that allow the unemployed to pursue work-based training and enhanced
reemployment assistance programs to target those most likely to be unemployed Ior an extended period oI time, the memo
read. '.While the President links these reIorms to a blanket extension oI extended (up to 99 weeks) UI beneIits and new
Iederal spending, there is no reason we cannot move Iorward on these areas oI agreement. The payroll cuts may be
even more problematic iI only because they`re expensive, and require siphoning money out
oI Social Security`s dedicated revenue stream. 'The President has proposed an extension and a signiIicant expansion oI the current payroll tax holiday. The
President would more than double the amount oI the holiday (up Irom $110 billion this year to $240 billion in 2012, including an expansion oI this proposal to some oI the employers` share oI these
taxes), and would sunset the entire payroll tax holiday eIIective anuary 1, 2013, the memo read. So while employees would see an additional temporary beneIit Irom this proposal in 2012 (the
President would modestly expand the current payroll holiday), they would experience a larger eIIective tax increase 12 months later when the payroll tax reverted back to its Iull level. There may be
signiIicant unIoreseen downsides to large temporary tax cuts immediately Iollowed by large tax increases. Compounding this negative eIIect is the scheduled increase in all individual tax rates, capital
gain and dividend rates, and the elimination/reduction oI various individual credits and deductions. In short, we are creating signiIicant new uncertainty in an already uncertain economy. Moreover, the
proposal increases general Iund transIers to Social Security, something that needs to be careIully considered given the long-term challenges Iacing that program and the implications oI those challenges
Ior taxpayers. Finally, the President proposes to pay Ior this one-year expanded tax holiday by permanently limiting the ability oI those earning more than $200,000 a year to take Iull advantage oI their
itemized deductions, including their charitable deductions. With over 40 oI charitable deductions being claimed by those impacted by this proposed policy, the practical eIIect is a tax on and a
reduction in charitable giving. This will negatively impact thousands oI churches and non-proIits. House #epublicans are supportive oI tax relieI Ior
working Iamilies and small businesses, but the temporary relieI proposed by the President must not
cause unIoreseen harm to the economy 15 months Irom now and it shouldn`t be oIIset with
permanent tax increases; and it shouldn`t come at the expense oI the nation`s charities. That
22
said, a commitment to honest and IruitIul discussions between the White House and Congressional Leaders could lead to
potential bipartisan agreement on a plan that avoids these downsides and provides tax relieI Ior the middle class that
encourages short- and long-term economic growth and job creation. Add these to an already long list oI things
Congress must do beIore the end oI the year Iund the government, pass Super
Committee recommendations and we`re in Ior a long two months.
Payroll tax cuts won`t pass-too much GOP opposition
Baker 11/1
DeAnna Stephens, #eporter, Pallet Enterprise, 'It`s Time to Prepare Ior Tax Season,
http://www.palletenterprise.com/articledatabase/view.asp?articleID3535
Still unknown is what portions oI President Obama`s jobs bill will get passed. The $447 billion
bill which recently Iailed to advance in the Senate included several tax credits geared toward small
businesses. However, the President and Democratic leaders are still pushing to have Congress
hold separate votes on diIIerent portions oI the proposal. Senate Majority Leader Harry #eid and
Minority Leader Mitch McConnell immediately started looking Ior speciIic provisions that they
could get enough support to pass. The bill has been sharply contested by #epublicans
because oI extensive expenditures that are also included. Small business tax cuts in the
President`s proposal include: A payroll tax cut to businesses. The plan would extend payroll tax cuts
by cutting in halI payroll tax on the Iirst $5 million in payroll. As a result, instead oI paying 6.2 on their payroll expenses,
businesses would pay only 3.1. A complete payroll tax holiday Ior new jobs or wage increases. This is intended as a direct
incentive to encourage Iirms to hire additional employees or raise wages Ior their current employees. The plan would reIund
payroll taxes paid on added workers or wage increases Ior current workers above the level oI last year`s payroll. An
extension oI 100 business expensing through 2012. The President believes this would encourage companies to make
investments that would strengthen them economically
23
Payroll Tax Cuts Don`t Help Econ
Payroll tax cut won`t motivate hiring or help the economy
Laffer 10/31
Mr. LaIIer, chairman oI LaIIer Associates, is co-author, with Stephen Moore, oI #eturn to Prosperity: How America Can #egain Its
Economic Superpower Status, National #eview, October 31, 2011 , Four-Point Plan Ior Failure - The president would tax work and
subsidize unemployment
Because our payroll tax drops dramatically at a little over $100,000 oI earned income, the people most strongly
aIIected by it tend not to be the economy's decision makers. Decision makers more oIten
are those who earn well over $100,000 per year and whose income is disproportionately in
the Iorm oI capital gains or dividends. Most payroll taxes are "inIramarginal," i.e., they don't enter
into people's choices about whether to work or not to work. As taxes go, the payroll tax is a big revenue
raiser and one oI the least damaging to work incentives. So cutting it is a poor choice iI jobs are the objective.
24
Infrastructure Bill Won`t Pass

Not enough votes for infrastructure bill - every Republican rejected it
Taylor 11/3
Andrew 'Senate GOP blocks Obama inIrastructure plan, http://news.yahoo.com/senate-gop-blocks-obama-inIrastructure-plan-
195413661.html
WASHINGTON (AP) #epublicans in the Senate Thursday dealt President Barack Obama the third in a
string oI deIeats on his stimulus-style jobs agenda, blocking a $60 billion measure Ior building and
repairing inIrastructure like roads and rail lines. Supporters oI the Iailed measure said it would have created tens oI
thousands oI construction jobs and liIted the still-struggling economy. But #epublicans unanimously opposed it Ior its tax
surcharge on the wealthy and spending totals they said were too high. The 51-49 vote Iell well short oI the 60
votes required under Senate procedures to start work on the bill. Every #epublican
opposed the president, as did Democrat Ben Nelson oI Nebraska and Iormer Democrat oe Lieberman, I-Conn., who
still aligns with the party. Obama's loss was anything but a surprise, but the White House and its Democratic allies continue
to press popular ideas Irom Obama's poll-tested jobs package in what #epublicans say is nothing more than a bare-knuckle
attempt to gain a political edge by invoking the mantra oI jobs but doing little to seek compromise.
Won`t pass-zero GOP support
Litvan 11/4 StaII Writer Ior Bloomsberg Businessweek~
Laura Litvan, 'Senate Fails to Advance Competing InIrastructure Bills, Bloomsberg Businessweek
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-04/senate-Iails-to-advance-competing-inIrastructure-plans.html
The U.S. Senate blocked two competing proposals to boost construction on roads,
bridges and other inIrastructure as Democrats and #epublicans escalated their Iight
over President Barack Obama`s $447 billion jobs plan. The Senate voted 51-49, short oI the 60 needed to begin debate, on
a Democratic measure to provide $60 billion Ior construction work and an 'inIrastructure bank to leverage capital Ior more
projects. It would be Iinanced by a 0.7 percent tax surcharge on millionaires. The Senate then reIused, on a 47-
53 vote, to advance a #epublican plan to extend Iederal highway, public transportation
and surIace transportation programs Ior two years, ease some environmental rules and give Congress more
oversight oI agency rulemaking. It would be paid Ior by rescinding $40 billion in unspent Iederal Iunds. 'One hundred
percent oI Senate #epublicans said no to the proposal, Obama said in a statement.

Senate won`t reach agreement on Infrastructure Bill- key leaders opposed
Calvan 11/3 <StaII Writer Ior Boston Globe~ Bobby Calvan, 'Senators Kerry and Brown Split on Doomed obs Bill Boston
Globe http://www.boston.com/Boston/politicalintelligence/2011/11/senators-john-kerry-scott-brown-split-doomed-jobs-
bills/nDbBdkUQx8lQMIuCMv1Ue/index.html
A sharply divided Senate rejected two opposing jobs bills today, putting in doubt whether
any agreement could be reached that would help put some oI the 14 million unemployed Americans back to work,
with disagreement generally along party lines. Massachusetts Senators ohn Kerry, a
Democrat, and Scott Brown, a #epublican, split their votes accordingly. Kerry supported a $60
billion package promoted by President Obama intended to improve the country`s crumbling inIrastructure. It would have also
included seed money Ior a $10 billion loan program likened to an 'inIrastructure bank. The vote on the Democratic
bill was 51-49 -- Iar short oI the required 60 to advance the legislation. #epublicans
objected to its tax surcharge on the richest Americans. Brown voted against the president`s plan and in
Iavor oI a GOP version that would have extended Ior two years the current Iederal highway program. #epublicans said
their plan would have reduced costly red tape and environmental regulations.
25
```Political Capital```
26
No Political Capital
Obama has lost ALL of his political capital due to this economic crisis and even other
nations recognize the depletion of political capital
Horsley 11/3, White House Correspondent Ior NP# News, 'Cannes plays host to an economic crisis,
http://www.npr.org/2011/11/03/141953727/cannes-plays-host-to-an-economic-crisis
The International Monetary Fund, which is partly bankrolled by the U.S., could play an important role in the rescue plan. But
otherwise, says Undersecretary Lael Brainard oI the Treasury Department, this is Europe's problem to Iix. The U.S. is
oIIering moral support, but not cash. "We are, along with other members oI the G-20, going to stand with Europe and support
Europe," she said. "Europe has substantial resources that it can bring to bear to address the challenge and we have a lot oI
conIidence that they will do so." Whenever that conIidence wavers, U.S. stock markets take a beating, and the administration
scolded Europe earlier this year Ior "scaring" the rest oI the world. Kirkegaard says President Obama is in no
position to lecture at this summit, though, given his own trouble in keeping America's
economy and Iederal budget on track. "He will unIortunately come to the G-20 with a very
depleted arsenal oI political capital," Kirkegaard said. Meanwhile, Europe is looking to
China as a possible source oI cash Ior its Iinancial Iirewall. Some argue that any gain in China's
inIluence must come at the expense oI the United States. But Mike Froman oI the National Security Council disagrees,
saying it's a natural progression in a world where economic power is shared more broadly. "The whole idea oI the G-20 is to
recognize that emerging economies have an important role to play, commensurate with their size in the global economy; that
they need to have a seat at the table and that there are certain responsibilities that go along with having that seat at the table."
Still, any money that China supplies to Europe is likely to come with strings attached. And that could make it harder Ior
European countries to press Ior reIorms like a revaluation oI Chinese currency. Still, the Chinese currency, banking reIorm
and all the other business that usually occupies leaders at a G-20 summit will have to settle Ior second billing this week.
There's just one big spotlight at Cannes, and it is shining brightly on the European debt crisis.

27
``Ècon Updates```
28
Credit Downgrade UQ Overwhelms Link
No committee agreement but Moody admits no downgrade either way
Press TV 11-2, 'Moody's: US downgrade not inevitable iI super committee Iails, http://www.presstv.ir/usdetail/208044.html
Failure by a U.S. congressional committee to agree on $1.5 trillion in budget deIicit cuts would be negative,
but not a "decisive'' Iactor in the review oI the United States' AAA rating, Moody's Investors
Service said Tuesday. The agency, which revised the U.S. rating outlook to negative in August, said in a
statement that inability by the committee to reach an agreement would indicate that
Congress is less likely to pass any signiIicant deIicit reduction measures beIore the November 2012
presidential election. "However, as $1.2 trillion in Iurther deIicit reduction has already been
legislated through automatic spending caps iI no agreement is reached, Iailure by the
committee to reach agreement would not by itselI lead to a rating change,'' Moody's said.
Investors are Iocused on Moody's assessment oI the United States because the agency could be the second to downgrade the
country aIter Standard & Poor's. Fitch #atings also intends to review the U.S. AAA rating aIter the deIicit-reduction
committee concludes its work, but it has a stable outlook on that rating. The bipartisan congressional committee Iormed to
address the deIicit issue and known in Washington as the "super committee'' needs to break an impasse between #epublicans
and Democrats to reach a deal by Nov. 23 to reduce the U.S. budget deIicit by at least $1.2 trillion. II a majority oI the 12-
member committee Iails to agree on a plan, $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts will be triggered, beginning in 2013.
#euters
29
Credit Downgrade Inevitable
Super committee will fail causing Moody`s to downgrade our rating anyway
Petruno 10/23
Tom, Columnist and StaII Writer, The Los Angeles Times
America`s credit rating is likely to take another hit beIore the end oI 2011, threatening
renewed market turmoil, Bank oI America Merrill Lynch economists warn. In a report on Friday, BoIA
Merrill said it sees little hope oI a breakthrough by the congressional 'super committee on
deIicit reduction. The bipartisan group has until Nov. 23 to identiIy $1.5 trillion in deIicit cuts over the next 10 years --
through reduced spending, tax hikes or both. 'The not-so-super` deIicit commission is very unlikely to
come up with a credible deIicit-reduction plan, wrote Ethan Harris, North American economist
at BoIA Merrill. 'The committee is more divided than the overall Congress. #atings Iirm Standard
& Poor`s on Aug. 6 shocked global markets by cutting its U.S. debt rating to AA Irom AAA, marking the Iirst time in
history that the nation`s creditworthiness was considered less than top-rung. S&P at the time said that the plan Congress had
just worked out to raise the Iederal debt ceiling Iell short oI what was needed to stabilize the nation's longer-term Iinances.
The ratings Iirms are likely to draw the same conclusion iI the super committee Iails in its task, Harris warned. 'The
credit rating agencies have strongly suggested that Iurther rating cuts are likely iI Congress
does not come up with a credible long-run plan, Harris wrote. 'Hence, we expect at least one
credit downgrade in late November or early December when the super committee crashes.
But it`s unclear whether the ratings Iirms would want to move that quickly, based on the language they`ve used in recent
months when assessing the U.S. debt situation. S&P has a 'negative outlook on its U.S. rating. The Iirm warned when it cut
the rating to AA on Aug. 5 that 'we could lower the long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years iI we see that less
reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new Iiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general
government debt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case. S&P`s two main rivals -- Moody`s Investors Service
and Fitch #atings -- still rate the U.S. AAA. But Moody`s, like S&P, has a 'negative outlook on its rating.
30
Credit Downgrade Coming
Credit downgrade is coming by either November or December
Matthews 10/31 (Kavin, Iinancial writer, IB Times, 'Experts Ioretell another IearIul credit downgrade Ior the US,
http://www.ibtimes.com/blogs/articles/31953/20111031/experts-Ioretell-another-IearIul-credit-downgrade-Ior.htm, October 31, 2011)
MAT
It was just on the 5th oI August, 2011 that the top notch credit rating oI the US was downgraded by one notch by the
Standard & Poor's credit rating agency. All the consumers, investors and Iinancial analysts were worried about the impact oI
the credit downgrade on the investment market and are now habituated with it. Though experts suggested that the interest
rates on personal loans would increase, there has been no serious eIIect that is seen within the industry. Though this
credit downgrade resulted Irom the inability oI the Obama administration and the
Congress, there are Iears oI yet another downgrade by the end oI 2011 provided the
Congress Iails to agree to a long term plan that can tame the nation's $14.9 trillion. The
previous downgrade was a decision oI the ace credit reporting agency Standard & Poor's
but research reveals that the Bank oI America units predict that the next credit downgrade
would be a decision oI either Fitch or Moody's. The stock and bond markets swooned aIter the Standard &
Poor's curbed the nation's bond rating in the month oI August, aIter the long months oI bickering by the Congress on how
best to reduce the expenses and also curb the budget deIicit. #esearch reveals that the United States spends almost 40 more
in a year than it collects on taxes. All the major credit rating agencies strongly Ieel that another
credit downgrade is round the corner iI the Congress emerges unsuccessIul and can't come
up with an authentic plan to reduce and curtail the deIicit. This is the reason why the
experts are predicting at least one more credit downgrade by the last week oI November,
2011 or the Iirst week oI December. Instead oI agreeing to cut down the deIicits, or add new taxes, the president
Barack Obama and the Congress appointed a bipartisan "super-committee" so that they could reach the deal and lower the US
debt deIicit by at least $1.2 trillion by the last week oI November, 2011. II there's no Iurther deal, there will be some
automatic across-the-board cuts through which there will be a restriction on discretionary spending. The Congress would be
Iree to stop all oI these reductions iI it wanted. ThereIore, iI you're a debtor who is worried about the Iuture interest rates, you
must look at the big picture. Take Iirm decisions so that you don't Iall in trouble in the near Iuture. Make sure you save
enough money and Iorm a cushion on which you can Iall back during uncertain times.
A credit downgrade is on the way - new housing bubble proves
Lillpop 10/28 (ohn W., StaII Writer and Opinionist, The Post Chronicle, 'Obama to #e-InIlate Housing Bubble; Another Credit
Downgrade Likely!, http://www.postchronicle.com/commentary/article212388217.shtml, October 28, 2011) MAT
In a sign oI increasing exasperation with #epublicans who will not, "Pass this bill now!" President Obama has decided to go
around the reticent party oI NO! and Iix the economy on his own. As reported at reIerence 1, Obama will announce two
tinkering initiatives that will hopeIully help repair the entrenched mess created by the disastrous Stimulus-1, which, as it
turns out, was all about Iunding doomed-to-go-bankrupt ventures Ior campaign donors with sun worshiping Iixations.
Obama's new initiatives will Iocus on the housing and student loan crises. The housing mess will be addressed by
downgrading the requirements Ior reIinancing mortgages, with less emphasis oI loan-to-value considerations and more Iocus
on empathy, leveling the playing Iield, closing the wealth gap, minority rights and other social justice actions best handled by
moon bats in big government. Hmmm. Is it not true that that sort oI Iuzzy thinking is directly responsible Ior the Iact that
millions oI Americans are currently Iacing Ioreclosure on their homes? Even more disconcerting, in order to
assure a seamless program Ior "#e- inIlating the Housing Bubble," the President has
decided to call on experts at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Ior help. A curious choice, given
the Iact that Fannie and Freddie are bankrupt entities that thrive on greed and corruption
while operating under the guise oI helping the poor and near-poor. In truth, these liberal-inIested rat
holes have created more 'poor and near poor' than they have helped. Again, Mr. President, America has "Been There, Done
That" with Fannie and Freddie: Millions are still paying Ior the malIeasance resulting thereIrom! With respect to student
loans, the president has yet to announce speciIic goals or plans. However, it is a lead-pipe cinch that Obama's reach out will
become a "hand out" that will encourage less accountability and individual responsibility on the part oI the beneIiciaries. In
other words, another progressive program made necessary by the lingering Iailures oI George W. Bush! The Iact that the
student loan crisis is a red hot issue with Occupy Wall Street retards has NOTHING to do with Obama's move-- #ight?
While Obama prepares to jolt the American economy back to liIe by killing it with love,
the pristine credit rating that America has always enjoyed, until Obama invaded 1600
Pennsylvania, is about to be downgraded AGAIN! As reported at reIerence 2, in part: The United
States is in Ior another credit downgrade by year's end iI Congress Iails to agree on a long-
term plan to tame the nation's $14.8 trillion debt, Merrill Lynch warned. In a research note,
the Bank oI America unit predicts that either Moody's or Fitch will move to downgrade the
31
U.S. AAA rating. Standard & Poor's cut the nation's bond rating in August, causing the stock and bond markets to
swoon, aIter months oI bickering by Congress on how to best reduce spending and cut the deIicit. The United States spends
about 40 percent more annually than it collects in taxes. "The credit rating agencies have strongly
suggested that Iurther rating cuts are likely iI Congress does not come up with a credible
long-run plan" to cut the deIicit, Merrill's North American economist, Ethan Harris, wrote in the Friday report.
"Hence, we expect at least one credit downgrade in late November or early December when
the super committee crashes." Gloom and doom everywhere, right? However, bear in mind that this warning was
issued beIore the Obama plan was announced. Perhaps Obama's "#e-inIlating the Housing Bubble" and student loan
handouts will help America avert the second historic downgrade on Obama's watch?
Merrill Lynch warns of a future credit downgrade by either Moody`s or Fitch
McGuire 10/24 (Bill, StaII Writer and News #eporter, ABC News, 'Merrill Lynch Warns oI Another U.S. Debt Downgrade,
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/business/2011/10/merrill-lynch-warns-oI-another-u-s-debt-downgrade/, October 24, 2011) MAT
The United States is in Ior another credit downgrade by year`s end iI Congress Iails to
agree on a long-term plan to tame the nation`s $14.8 trillion debt, Merrill Lynch warned. In
a research note, the Bank oI America unit predicts that either Moody`s or Fitch will move to
downgrade the U.S. AAA rating. Standard & Poor`s cut the nation`s bond rating in August, causing the stock and
bond markets to swoon, aIter months oI bickering by Congress on how to best reduce spending and cut the deIicit. The
United States spends about 40 percent more annually than it collects in taxes. 'The credit rating agencies have
strongly suggested that Iurther rating cuts are likely iI Congress does not come up with a
credible long-run plan to cut the deIicit, Merrill`s North American economist, Ethan Harris, wrote in the Friday
report. Hence, we expect at least one credit downgrade in late November or early December
when the super committee crashes. Instead oI agreeing on spending cuts or new taxes,
Congress and the president appointed a bipartisan super committee to reach a deal to
reduce the U.S. deIicit by at least $1.2 trillion by Nov. 23. II there`s no deal, automatic across-the-board
cuts mostly in discretionary spending would occur. Congress would be Iree to stop any or all oI those reductions, iI it chooses
and the president agrees. Moody`s Investors Service hasn`t said what it will do iI there`s no deal, but it has placed
U.S. credit under review Ior a possible downgrade. 'It`s not that we`re waiting just Ior this
committee to decide on the rating, Steven Hess, Moody`s lead analyst Ior the United States, told #euters last
week. Failure to come up with a deal 'would be negative inIormation but it is not decisive in our view about the rating.
Likely inaction by the Debt Super Committee will lead to a credit downgrade
Pendergraft 10/31 (#ick, Analyst and Editor oI Cabot Options Trader, Cabot Institution, 'Another U.S. Debt Downgrade?,
http://www.cabot.net/en/Issues/CWA/Archives/2011/10/Debt-Downgrade.aspx, October 31, 2011) MAT
Back on August 5 aIter the market closed, Standard & Poor's downgraded the United States debt rating Irom AAA to AA.
This was an important date Ior investors because the S&P 500 dropped the Iollowing Monday and Tuesday, establishing the
lower rail oI the trading range we were in Irom the beginning oI August until recently. When the downgrade was announced,
politicians were in an uproar. #epublicans blamed President Obama and the Democrats Ior their spending. Meanwhile, the
Democrats blamed #epublicans and their insistence that taxes not be raised. Let's Iace it, both parties are more a part oI the
problem than the answer. #egardless oI who and what were to blame, there are now rumblings
that the U.S. may be Iacing another downgrade. The so-called Debt Super Committee has a
Iew weeks beIore they have to release their suggestions on how to get our budget under
control. From what I've seen, they're playing the same old games as beIore and it's unlikely that
anything groundbreaking will come out oI this brain trust. Given that last statement, it wouldn't
surprise me to see another downgrade and I wouldn't blame the ratings agencies. What I am
anxious to see is the reaction Irom investors iI there is a second debt downgrade. AIter the August 5 downgrade, investors
Ilocked to Treasuries as a deIensive move. Take a look at the chart oI the iShares Trust Barclay's 20 Year Treasury Fund
(TLT). This exchange-traded Iund (ETF) represents long-term treasury bonds. The TLT jumped Irom around 105 on August
8 to the 125 level on October 4. It's not rational that investors were rushing into an investment that yields approximately
3.4. Instead, investors were moving into Treasuries out oI Iear, and this sent the TLT on a huge two-month rally that saw
the Iund gain almost 20. Should Standard & Poor's decide to lower the U.S. rating Irom AA to
AA or should Moody's or Fitch decide to lower their ratings on the U.S. credit, I would not
count on a similar rush oI buyers into Treasuries. At the time oI the Iirst downgrade, investors were worried about Iar more
than just the credit rating. There was the Iear oI the U.S. dipping into another recession, the political wrangling over the debt
ceiling in the U.S. and the ongoing debt problems in Europe. II there is another downgrade, Ioreign investors may not view
U.S. treasuries as the same saIe haven they have considered it in the past. Foreign investors are the biggest buyers oI U.S.
debt and iI they start shying away, bonds could start Ialling Iast. When there is a lack oI buyers, only sellers are leIt.
32
Credit Downgrade Not Coming
Downgrade not inevitable - Super Committee doesn`t matter
PressTV 11/2 ('Moody's: US downgrade not inevitable iI super committee Iails, http://www.presstv.ir/usdetail/208044.html,
November 2, 2011) MAT
Failure by a U.S. congressional committee to agree on $1.5 trillion in budget deIicit cuts
would be negative, but not a "decisive'' Iactor in the review oI the United States' AAA
rating, Moody's Investors Service said Tuesday. The agency, which revised the U.S. rating outlook to
negative in August, said in a statement that inability by the committee to reach an agreement would
indicate that Congress is less likely to pass any signiIicant deIicit reduction measures
beIore the November 2012 presidential election. "However, as $1.2 trillion in Iurther
deIicit reduction has already been legislated through automatic spending caps iI no
agreement is reached, Iailure by the committee to reach agreement would not by itselI lead
to a rating change,'' Moody's said. Investors are Iocused on Moody's assessment oI the United States because the
agency could be the second to downgrade the country aIter Standard & Poor's. Fitch #atings also intends to
review the U.S. AAA rating aIter the deIicit-reduction committee concludes its work, but it
has a stable outlook on that rating. The bipartisan congressional committee Iormed to address the deIicit issue
and known in Washington as the "super committee'' needs to break an impasse between #epublicans and Democrats to reach
a deal by Nov. 23 to reduce the U.S. budget deIicit by at least $1.2 trillion. II a majority oI the 12-member committee Iails to
agree on a plan, $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts will be triggered, beginning in 2013. In August, Lawrence Summers,
Iormer top White House economic advisor, Nariman Behravesh, chieI economist at IHS Global Insight, and Martin Feldstein,
a Harvard economist, all warned that the U.S. economy could slip into another recession. China's top credit rating agency, the
Dagong Global Credit #ating Company, which had already downgraded the United States Irom AAA to A in November
aIter the Federal #eserve loosened its monetary policy, lowered the U.S. government's rating Iurther, to A, on August 3.
Despite the debt ceiling deal, Standard & Poor lowered the U.S. long-term sovereign debt rating Irom AAA to AA on
August 5, citing Washington's inability to rein in its mounting deIicits with spending cuts and #epublican's resistance to
raising revenues.
Credit downgrade not coming - the automatic budget cuts will keep the credit rating high
Gongloff 11/1 (Mark, StaII Writer, Wall Street ournal, 'US Might Avoid Moody`s Downgrade, But at What Cost?,
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/11/01/us-might-avoid-moodys-downgrade-but-at-what-cost/, November 1, 2011) MAT
So the market is once again getting a bit a very little bit oI a late-aIternoon liIt Irom an FT report, only this time it`s
about the US, not Europe. This story suggests that the US might be at a little less risk oI a
downgrade than people might Iear, even iI the Super Committee in Congress Iails to come
up with $2 trillion in budget cuts that both parties can live with. (Hint: they will Iail to do that. I
would bet money on it, iI I were allowed to bet money, or had any money to bet with.) #emember, $2 trillion is the arbitrary
number that the universe decided should be the target oI any budget deal. S&P downgraded the US when the budget deal
struck this summer didn`t hit that magic target. Today, the FT reports, Moody`s suggested it wasn`t so hung
up on that number. Instead, it said the $1.2 trillion in automatic budget cuts that will
automatically Iollow iI the Super Committee completely Ialls Ilat on its Iace will be
suIIicient): 'Agreement ... on a larger amount oI deIicit reduction would be Iavourable,
but the smaller amount triggered by the spending caps is still a step in the same direction,
said Steven Hess, senior credit oIIicer at Moody`s. 'Thus, the committee outcome will not necessarily
lead to any change in our rating stance. Moody`s, like Fitch, still has a AAA rating on the US, though it has
put the US on notice it was at risk oI a downgrade. Moody`s holding its Iire could be a relieI, as it would leave S&P alone in
downgrading the US, which would make it easier Ior everybody to say the S&P downgrade really doesn`t matter. So, that`s
great news, but how about that $1.2 trillion in budget cuts? That will take eIIect in 2013 and will be across the board,
aIIecting everything government does, whether we like it or not. The market might not be so thrilled to discover the eIIects oI
cuts like that.
Moody`s says a downgrade is not coming
Thorp 11/1 (Frank, NBC News #eporter, MSNBC News, '#atings agency: No change in U.S. credit,
http://Iirstread.msnbc.msn.com/news/2011/11/01/8582525-ratings-agency-no-change-in-us-credit, November 1, 2011) MAT
The nation's AAA credit rating will likely stay put no matter what the outcome oI the
DeIicit Supercommittee later this month, according to a report released today by the ratings
agency Moody's. On Aug. 2nd, just days beIore S&P's downgrade oI the nation's credit rating Irom AAA to AA,
33
Moody's conIirmed it's AAA rating but assigned it a negative outlook. According the Moody's report, due to the Iact
that the nation's deIicit will be reduced both iI the Supercommittee reaches an agreement or
not, Moody's does not anticipate any change in their credit rating oI the U.S. "Agreement by the
oint Select Committee and the Congress as a whole on a larger amount oI deIicit reduction would be Iavorable, the report
states, 'but the smaller amount triggered by the spending caps is still a step in the same direction. Thus, the committee
outcome will not necessarily lead to any change in our rating stance." According to the Budget
Control Act passed in August, iI the Supercommittee does not come to an agreement on at least $1.2 trillion in deIicit
reduction by Nov. 23rd, an automatic "trigger" will result in almost a $1 trillion in automatic cuts to programs such as
deIense and entitlements. The Moody's report will likely come as a relieI to Supercommittee members, who are scheduled to
hear a dire warning Irom Iormer Sen. Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles during an open congressional hearing today.
According to prepared testimony, the two plan to warn the Supercommittee that "a Iailure by this committee might result in
another downgrade."
34
Credit Downgrade Good
Credit downgrade won`t happen and even if it does it will only stimulate the economy
Detrixhe 11/1 (ohn, StaII Writer, Washington Post, 'Supercommittee Iailure would not alone cause U.S.`s credit to be
downgraded, Moody`s Says, http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/supercommittee-Iailure-would-not-alone-cause-uss-credit-to-
be-downgraded-moodys-says/2011/11/01/gIQA01tKdMstory.html, November 1, 2011) MAT
A Iailure by a congressional supercommittee to reach agreement on deIicit reduction
wouldn`t on its own cause the U.S. to lose its top credit ranking, Moody`s Investors Service said.
While the Iailure 'would be more negative, the lack oI an agreement isn`t decisive in the
U.S.`s AAA rating because the government`s August agreement to reduce the deIicit
includes $1.2 trillion in automatic cuts to discretionary spending that would begin in
anuary 2013, Moody`s said today in a statement. Since August, when Moody`s aIIirmed its U.S. rating, the
New York-based Iirm`s outlook has been negative. A negative outlook is usually removed or leads to a rating change in
about 12 to 18 months, though changes to the credit grade and outlook may happen outside that range, Hess said. The
bipartisan committee held a hearing today on previous debt proposals. 'That`s not to say that the outcome is completely
irrelevant, Steven Hess, senior credit oIIicer at Moody`s in New York, said today in a telephone interview. 'All I`m saying
is that it would not by itselI lead to a downgrade oI the rating. We would view an agreement
by the committee and subsequent passage as a positive. The supercommittee is to vote on measures to
reduce U.S. debt by $1.5 trillion on Nov. 23. At least $1.2 trillion in debt reductions must be enacted by an. 15 to avoid the
automatic cuts. 'II they leave it to the trigger, we would view that in a negative way, but it
wouldn`t have a rating implication immediately, Hess said. 'It would indicate that between now and a
national election next November, the likelihood oI major reIorms to reduce the deIicit would be very unlikely. Arizona
Senator ohn McCain, a #epublican, has said the provision Ior automatic across-the-board
spending cuts could be removed. 'II they undo the Budget Control Act, that would be a negative, Hess said.
'We`re not expecting that. Erskine Bowles, a co-leader oI President Barack Obama`s Iiscal commission, today told the
congressional supercommittee, 'I`m worried you`re going to Iail. Bowles, a Iormer Clinton Administration White House
chieI oI staII, said the deIicit stems Irom Iour major sources: the costs oI health care and national deIense, the 'ineIIective
tax system and interest on the national debt. 'I believe iI you all go big, iI you`re bold and you do it in a smart manner, that
the American people will support you in cutting the deIicit, he told the supercommittee. Lawmakers agreed on Aug. 2 to
raise the nation`s $14.3 trillion debt ceiling and put in place a plan to enIorce $2.4 trillion in spending reductions over the
next 10 years. The U.S. lost its AAA ranking by Standard & Poor`s Ior the Iirst time on Aug. 5. The rating Iirm cited the
political Iailure to reduce record deIicits and weakening 'eIIectiveness, stability and predictability oI American policy
making and political institutions. America has an AAA ranking Irom Fitch #atings with a stable
outlook. A Iailure by the supercommittee to agree on at least $1.2 trillion oI cuts would 'likely result in negative rating
action, which carries a more than 50 percent chance oI downgrade during the next two years, Fitch said Aug. 16 in a
statement. Instead of eroding the value of U.S. government debt, investors sought
Treasuries and the world`s reserve currency after the S&P rating cut sparked
financial market turmoil. Treasuries gained 6.4 percent last quarter, their best
perIormance since the last three-months oI 2008, according to Bank oI America Merrill Lynch index data.
A credit downgrade would increase investment in Treasuries and lead to huge profits
Pendergraft 11/1 (#ick, StaII Writer and Financial Advisor, Seeking Alpha, 'An ETF Strategy To ProIit From A Second U.S.
Debt Downgrade, http://seekingalpha.com/article/304209-an-etI-strategy-to-proIit-Irom-a-second-u-s-debt-downgrade, November 1,
2011) MAT
Given that last statement, it wouldn`t surprise me to see another downgrade, and I wouldn`t blame the ratings agencies. What
I am anxious to see is the reaction Irom investors iI there is a second debt downgrade. AIter the August 5
downgrade, investors Ilocked to Treasuries as a deIensive move. Take a look at the chart oI the iShares
Trust Barclay`s 20 Year Treasury Fund (TLT). This exchange-traded Iund represents long-term
Treasury bonds. The TLT jumped from around $105 on August 8 to the $125 level
on October 4. It`s not rational that investors were rushing into an investment that yields
approximately 3.4. Instead, investors were moving into Treasuries out oI Iear, and this sent the TLT on a huge two-
month rally that saw the Iund gain almost 20. Should Standard & Poor`s decide to lower the U.S. rating Irom AA to AA,
or should Moody`s or Fitch decide to lower their ratings on the U.S. credit, I would not count on a similar rush oI buyers into
Treasuries. At the time oI the Iirst downgrade, investors were worried about Iar more than just the credit rating. There was
the Iear oI the U.S. dipping into another recession, the political wrangling over the debt ceiling in the U.S. and the ongoing
debt problems in Europe. II there is another downgrade, Ioreign investors may not view U.S. Treasuries as the same saIe
haven they have considered it in the past. Foreign investors are the biggest buyers oI U.S. debt, and iI they start shying away,
35
bonds could start Ialling Iast. When there is a lack oI buyers, only sellers are leIt. How can you beneIit? The ProShares
UltraShort 20 Year Treasury Fund (TBT) is a double inverse ETF that is the counterpart to the TLT
mentioned above. TBT is designed to move up twice as much as the TLT moves down. In
other words, iI the TLT drops 15 Irom its current level, the TBT should rise 30. A move
oI this nature would erase the gain the TLT experienced Irom August until the beginning oI October, and would move the
TBT Irom the $21.50 level up to the $27.50-$28 range. A possible downgrade isn`t the only thing that
would liIt the TBT. II the economic data continues to improve, we could see investors
selling bonds and re-entering the stock market. Should inIlation start to rise (the Producer Price
Index jumped 0.8 in September) the Fed could start raising interest rates sooner than they had
planned. Any oI these developments would cause selling in the bond market and would
cause the TBT to jump, meaning that you would profit. Disclosure: I purchased the TBT Ior my
investment management clients in early October.
36
Consumer Confidence Low
Consumer confidence at an all time low signaling economic downturn
Rugaber 10/26
Christopher S., #eporter, Detroit Free Press, 'ConIidence in U.S. economy low,
http://www.Ireep.com/article/20111026/BUSINESS07/110260360/ConIidence-U-S-economy-low
NEW YO#K -- Americans say they Ieel worse about the economy than they have since the
depths oI the Great #ecession. And it's a bad time Ior a bad mood because households are
starting to make their holiday budgets. It might not be all doom and gloom, though. Sometimes what people
say about the economy and how they behave are two diIIerent things. Consumer conIidence Iell in October to
the lowest since March 2009, reIlecting the big hit that the stock market took this summer
and Irustration with an economic recovery that doesn't really Ieel like one. The ConIerence
Board, a private research group, said its index oI consumer sentiment came in at 39.8, down about
six points Irom September and seven shy oI what economists were expecting. The reading is still well above where
the index stood 2 1/2 years ago, at 26.9. But it's not even within shouting distance oI 90, what it takes
to signal that the economy is on solid Iooting. Economists watch consumer conIidence closely because
consumer spending accounts Ior about 70 oI U.S. economic activity. The index measures how
shoppers Ieel about business conditions, the job market and the next six months. It came exactly two months beIore
Christmas, with retailers preparing Ior the holiday shopping season, their busiest. Almost twice as many people
now expect a pay cut over the next six months as expect a raise. "II people think their income is
declining, they're not going to be inclined to spend," said acob Oubina, an economist at #BC Capital
Markets.
Consumer confidence is low now
Willis 10/25
Bob, StaII Writer, SF Chronicle, 'U.S. Consumer ConIidence Unexpectedly Drops to Two-Year Low, http://www.sIgate.com/cgi-
bin/article.cgi?I/g/a/2011/10/25/bloombergarticlesLTMLAM1A1I4H.DTL
Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer conIidence unexpectedly slumped in October to the lowest
level since March 2009, when the U.S. economy was in a recession, as Americans'
outlooks Ior employment and incomes soured. The ConIerence Board's sentiment index
decreased to 39.8 Irom a revised 46.4 reading in September, Iigures Irom the New York-based private research
group showed today. This month's reading was less than the most pessimistic Iorecast in a
Bloomberg News survey in which the median projection was 46. Limited job availability, deteriorating home
values and the threat oI a European debt deIault are weighing on sentiment. A drop in
optimism helps explain concern among some companies like Levi Strauss & Co. that spending
will be restrained during the holiday shopping season. "The outlook continues to deteriorate," said Yelena
Shulyatyeva, a U.S. economist at BNP Paribas in New York. "This is not good Ior the holidays, which won't
be horrible but will deIinitely be worse than last year." Estimates in the Bloomberg survey oI 76 economists
ranged Irom 42.5 to 52. The index averaged 53.7 during the 18-month recession that ended in une 2009. Stocks held
earlier losses and Treasuries gained aIter the Iigures. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index Iell
1 percent to 1,241.58 at 10:21 a.m. in New York. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note declined to 2.18
percent Irom 2.23 percent late yesterday.
Consumer confidence at an all time low
Nazareth 10/25
#ita, #eporter, San Francisco Chronicle, 'U.S. Stocks Fall as Consumer ConIidence Slumps, UPS Declines,
http://www.sIgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?I/g/a/2011/10/25/bloombergarticlesLTMKMO6K50YZ.DTL
"It's hard to get excited in this environment," Timothy Ghriskey, who oversees $2 billion as chieI investment
oIIicer oI Solaris Group LLC in BedIord Hills, New York, said in a telephone interview. "You have very anemic
growth and you have a big a question mark about the debt situation in Europe." The S&P
500 has risen 11 percent in October through yesterday, Iollowing a Iive-month decline. It rose Irom the
threshold oI a bear market early in October on steps by European leaders to support banks and higher-than-estimated earnings.
The rebound brought the index above a price range where it had traded since August. Consumer ConIidence Stocks
37
extended losses aIter consumer conIidence Iell in October to the lowest level since March
2009, when the U.S. economy was in a recession, as Americans' outlooks Ior employment
and incomes soured. The ConIerence Board's sentiment index decreased to 39.8 Irom a revised
46.4 reading in September, Iigures Irom the New York-based private research group showed today. A separate report showed
that home prices in 20 U.S. cities dropped more than Iorecast in August, highlighting one oI
the obstacles Iacing the economic recovery in its third year. A meeting oI European Union
Iinance ministers scheduled Ior tomorrow has been canceled, the U.K. said in an e-mailed statement.
Consumer confidence low now
Faux 10/25
Zeke, StaII Writer, Bloomberg, 'U.S. Corporate Credit #isks Benchmark #ises as ConIidence Sinks,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-25/u-s-corporate-credit-risk-benchmark-rises-Irom-september-low.html
A benchmark gauge oI U.S. corporate credit risk rose Irom the lowest level in more than a month as consumer
conIidence unexpectedly sank and home prices Iell. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade
Index, which investors use to hedge against losses on corporate debt or to speculate on creditworthiness, added 1.9 basis
points to 128.1 basis points at 12:18 p.m. in New York, according to index administrator Markit Group Ltd. The
measure, which typically Ialls as investor conIidence improves and rises as it deteriorates,
climbed Irom the lowest level since Sept. 16 as data showed that the recovery oI the U.S.
economy is Ialtering. The New York-based ConIerence Board`s household sentiment index dropped to 39.8 in
October, less than the most pessimistic Iorecast in a Bloomberg News survey. 'Economic recovery hopes took a punch in the
stomach this morning, Chris #upkey, chieI Iinancial economist at Bank oI Tokyo-Mitsubishi UF, wrote in a note to clients
and reporters. Property values in 20 cities in August Iell 3.8 percent Irom a year earlier, more
than analysts had Iorecast, according to S&P/Case-Shiller. The credit swaps index has declined Irom 150.1 on Oct.
3, the highest level in more than two years, as investors wager that Europe`s leaders will prevent the region`s Iiscal crisis
Irom inIecting bank balance sheets.
38
Consumer/Investor Confidence Answer
Their impacts are inevitable, recent numbers prove that there is no correlation between
consumer and investor confidence
Brennan 10/25
Henry, StaII Writer, FundWeb, 'US consumer conIidence sinks, investor conIidence returns, http://www.Iundweb.co.uk/us/us-
consumer-conIidence-sinks-investor-conIidence-returns/1040229.article
Perceptions oI business and employment conditions are worsening in the US, as reIlected
in the results oI the consumer conIidence index which have come in under analyst expectations Ior September.
The index was at 39.8 Ior September lower than analysts` predictions oI a level between 40 and 50.
Unusually, consumer conIidence has been declining while retail sales remain at consistent
levels. The latest Iigures may signal a change in retail Iigures as the two sets oI results generally share a
relationship. The latest Iigures Irom the State Street Investor ConIidence Index, however, have revealed that investors
are Ieeling more conIident in their attitude to equities. The investor conIidence index reached
96.7 in September, up Irom 90 in August as investors become more willing to take up
equity positions. The index reveals that the latest Iigures are showing a strong move back towards
the 12 month high oI 104.3.
39
No Super-Committee Compromise
No deal, Obama not involved
Politico, 11-3, 11, http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/67497.html
With the supercommittee`s time running short and a bare-minimum deal worth $1.2 trillion
looking like a tall order a major player is sitting out the Iight. President Barack Obama Both
politically and substantively, Obama isn`t interested in getting dragged into another death match
with #epublicans over deIicits and spending cuts aIter the debt ceiling debacle. He turned his attention to
jobs in September and with the blessing oI Hill Democrats adopted a hands-oII approach to the supercommittee. The
sidelines strategy is a notable political and tactical shiIt Ior Obama, who personally negotiated the
debt-limit agreement and staked the Iirst two years oI his presidency on reaching bipartisan deals with Congress, only to see
his eIIorts largely Iail and his job approval numbers tank. Obama hasn`t dialed up members oI the committee. Administration
oIIicials aren`t yet engaged in substantive talks with Speaker ohn Boehner (#-Ohio). And White House aides don`t
have a seat at the table, either with the oint Select Committee on DeIicit #eduction or
during Democratic strategy sessions, sources said.

No agreement on the Supercommittee now
Marketwatch 11/1
The budget experts' testimony came about three weeks beIore the supercommittee's Nov. 23 deadline. Its six
Democrats and six #epublicans are tasked with identiIying at least $1.2 trillion in deIicit
reduction. II they can't agree, $1.2 trillion in automatic cuts kick in by 2013, divided equally between deIense and non-
deIense programs. In public, at least, supercommittee members still appear Iar apart on how to
achieve savings. Co-chair #ep. eb Hensaling, a Texas #epublican, said the supercommittee can't
"tinker around the edges" oI entitlement programs like Medicare and Medicaid.
Committee deadlocked
Business Insider 11/2
The committee is deadlocked over Democrats' insistence on including revenues increases
as part oI the deIicit reduction package, over strong #epublican insistence that tax
increases are "oII the table." Instead #epublicans say they want to overhaul the tax code in a revenue neutral way
and have Iocused on cuts to healthcare beneIit programs. Previous negotiations between the White House
and congressional #epublicans and Democrats collapsed over taxes.
Committee stalled, no plan
Market News 11/2
The congressional deIicit panel is likely to meet nearly every weekday over the next several weeks to try to assemble a deIicit
reduction agreement. Lawmakers have said they need an agreement several weeks in advance oI
the Nov. 23 deadline so any package could be scored by the Congressional Budget OIIice. In recent
weeks, there have been numerous reports that the panel is stalemated and may not reach an
agreement by its Nov. 23 deadline.

40
No Impact To Super-Committee Failure
No impact to super committee failure and cuts get rolled back by the next Congress
Chaddock 11/11
Gail #ussell, #eporter, Christian Science Monitor, 'What happens iI deIicit super committee Iails? Maybe nothing,
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2011/1103/What-happens-iI-deIicit-super-committee-Iails-Maybe-nothing
II the super committee Iails, will there be any real consequences? Or will a Iuture Congress take one
look at the draconian automatic cuts set to take hold in 2013 $600 billion to deIense, $600 billion to entitlements and say,
no way. That`s the latest rumor in Washington this week, as the 12-member joint deIicit reduction committee struggles to
Iind a $1.2 trillion package oI cuts that can pass the panel and the Congress. What iI they Iail and nothing
happens? AIter all, the automatic cuts kick in aIter the 2012 elections when a new Congress
will be in Washington. Will that Congress Ieel bound by the decisions oI the previous
Congress? #ECOMMENDED: Who's who on the deIicit super committee Speaker ohn Boehner (#) oI Ohio told a
roundtable oI reporters Thursday that he Ieels morally bound to carry out the automatic cuts known as the sequester option
should the super committee Iail. 'Yes, I would Ieel bound by it, he said. 'It was part oI the agreement. Either we succeed,
or we`re in the sequester. The sequester is ugly. Why? Because we don`t want anybody to go there. That`s
why we have to succeed. But some GOP colleagues have already signaled that they are not
prepared to preside over what would be more than $1 trillion in deIense spending cuts over
10 years and will call to repeal the mandatory cuts. #ECOMMENDED: Tax the rich: Should
millionaires really pay more? 'The sequester is an absolute national security disaster, says Sen.
Lindsey Graham (#) oI South Carolina, a member oI the Senate Armed Services Committee, who has pledged to
replace it. 'There will be virtually no support when the new Congress understands what it
does. In Iact, the practice oI restoring deIense cuts aIter Iirst claiming them as part oI deIicit reduction has settled into
habit on Capitol Hill.

Supercommittee failure won`t cause a downgrade
Marketwatch, 11-1, 11
On Tuesday, Moody's analysts said Iailure by the supercommittee to produce a deIicit-reduction deal
would not result in a change in U.S. ratings. "As $1.2 trillion in Iurther deIicit reduction has
already been legislated through automatic spending caps iI no agreement is reached, Iailure
by the committee to reach agreement would not by itselI lead to a rating change," analysts
wrote.
41
AT: Government Shutdown
Shutdown will be avoided-no riders and Boehner has the votes
Russert 11/1
Luke, #eporter, NBC, 'Policy Iights could mean another shutdown threat,
http://Iirstread.msnbc.msn.com/news/2011/11/01/8584534-policy-Iights-could-mean-another-shutdown-threat
While the super committee and its Nov. 23 deadline commands most oI the attention on Capitol Hill, another important
deadline looms in the near Iuture: Nov. 18th, the day when the government runs out oI money. The most recently-passed
continuing resolution -- or short-term extension oI government spending -- is set to expire in 18 days, and it's unclear whether
#epublicans and Democrats can come together in time to avoid (again) a dreaded government shutdown. And so-called
"policy riders," measures that are attached to spending legislation to advance a policy agenda, could threaten to
ensnare a new agreement despite little interest among Democrats or #epublicans in a
shutdown. Political squabbling has kept Congress Irom passing a Iormal, yearlong budget Ior over 900 days now,
meaning the government has continued to be Iunded be a series oI these short-term Iixes. Aides on both sides oI the aisle on
Capitol Hill are cognizant oI the low public appetite Ior a shutdown; previous budget Iights have contributed to poor approval
oI lawmakers work. For instance, 82 percent oI Americans expressed disapproval oI Congress in an
October AP-GIk poll. Nevertheless, because the contemporary political environment is so heated, some on Capitol Hill
Iear the needed government Iunding bill could Iall victim to well-worn political dividing lines between the two parties. At
the heart oI this Iear lie the riders. They are routinely attached to appropriations bills,
though they oIten have nothing to do with Iunding the government. For example, during the last
showdown earlier this spring, the issue oI abortion and whether or not groups like Planned Parenthood should be eligible Ior
Iederal Iunds played a central role up until an 11th hour agreement was reached. Sensing these types oI issues could come up
again, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) has sent House Speaker ohn Boehner (#-OH) a letter
asking that controversial riders not be included in any budget deal. 'While not all policy riders are
objectionable, many oI those included this year are not only controversial but blatantly partisan," Hoyer wrote. "Included
riders would block the implementation oI the AIIordable Care Act, roll back important clean air and clean water protections,
and place new restrictions on women`s access to a Iull range oI medical and health services, among others." Last month
Boehner dismissed talk oI policy riders saying they had been included in appropriations
bills Ior years. A House GOP aide tells NBC News, 'The Democrats who run Washington are trying to pick a Iight on
unrelated issues because they can`t Iace the Iacts: we aren`t going to get our economy moving again and
create jobs until we get government spending under control. advertisement The question becomes,
then, which side has an upper hand in the Iight? House Democrats are banking on the notion that
Boehner will not be able to secure enough #epublican votes to pass a budget without
Democratic support. II this is the case, the GOP won`t be able to include any controversial
policy riders in order to attract the Democratic support they`ll need to avert a shutdown.
But iI #epublicans stick together, and can produce 218 votes Ior any budget deal out oI the
House, Hoyer will be stymied, and Boehner will negotiate a more Iavorable deal with Senate
Democrats.

42
Econ High

Econ recovering - growth just doubled
Lenzner 10-28, #obert, Forbes, 'At 2.5 GDP Growth Maybe The Bears Will Go Hibernate For The Winter,
http://www.Iorbes.com/sites/robertlenzner/2011/10/28/a-recession-seems-more-unlikely-now/
ust when the bears were in the ascendance came the rather shocking Ilash that the nation`s third quarter growth
just about doubled Irom the second quarter to 2.5. At 2.5 I am told the economy can absorb all the
NEW entrants to the job market thus holding the unemployment rate to 9.1. By the way, with this 2.5 gain
in GDP growth the US has miraculously gotten back to the GDP level 4 years ago in October, 2007 but with 8 million less
jobs, according to businessinsider.com, my Iavorite new hip website. The proIits oI leading companies like
Caterpillar and other name brands were certainly not sinking, but rather seemed to have momentum. A scary
wealth destroying September was Iollowed by a Iantastic and unexpected rally, punishing the short sellers but good. The
plummeting price oI necessary commodities like crude oil suddenly turned up on a dime
and was streaking again toward $100 a barrel. Exxon, Shell, Chevron the big boys oI the oil patch saw
their shares spike only in part because oI huge share buybacks planned with their incredible excess cash Ilow earned on the
leverage Irom cheap oil in the ground or sea. In support oI this turnaround came the preliminary bailout plan Ior Greece and
the required recapitalization oI the banks. The EFSF will be leveraged up 5 to 1, which could be dangerous but not like the
American investment banks in 2008 when they were in debt 30 times more than their equity capital.
43
Econ Low
The economy is failing - low consumer confidence, bad housing market, high
unemployment, and limited wage growth
Homan 10/27 (Timothy #., StaII Writer and #eporter, Bloomberg BusinessWeek, 'Consumers in U.S. Are Most Negative on
Economy Since #ecession, HYPE#LINK "http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-27/consumers-in-u-s-are-most-negative-
on-economy-since-recession.html" http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-27/consumers-in-u-s-are-most-negative-on-
economy-since-recession.htm
Consumer conIidence declined last week as Americans` views oI the economy sank to the
lowest since the recession, highlighting the challenges Iacing the recovery. The Bloomberg
Consumer ComIort Index Iell to minus 51.1 in the week ended Oct. 23, the lowest in a month,
Irom minus 48.4 the prior period. Ninety-Iive percent oI those surveyed had a negative opinion
about the economy, the worst since April 2009 and one percentage point shy oI a record high.
Morass in the housing market, slow hiring and limited wage growth that have soured attitudes
may contain consumer spending aIter a third-quarter pickup. The Obama administration and some Federal
#eserve oIIicials said shoring up residential real estate would help speed the recovery. 'Consumer sentiment remains
mired knee-deep in the big muddy oI an epic housing mess, household deleveraging and a
broken labor market, said oseph Brusuelas, a senior economist at Bloomberg LP in New York. 'The specter oI a
European debt crisis and the likelihood oI no additional policy support here at home will
probably keep sentiment at or near historically low levels. The U.S. economy grew in the third quarter at
the Iastest pace in a year as gains in consumer spending and business investment helped support a recovery on the brink oI
Ialtering. Gross domestic product rose at a 2.5 percent annual rate, matching the median Iorecast oI economists surveyed by
Bloomberg News and up Irom a 1.3 percent gain in the prior quarter, according to Commerce Department Iigures. Household
purchases, the biggest part oI the economy, increased at a more-than- projected 2.4 percent pace. A separate report
showed that Iewer Americans Iiled applications Ior unemployment assistance last week, while
those on beneIit rolls dropped to a three-year low, signaling limited improvement in the labor
market. First-time jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to 402,000 in the week ended Oct. 22, the Labor
Department said. The number oI people collecting unemployment beneIits Iell in the previous week
by 96,000 to 3.65 million, the Iewest since September 2008. Stocks climbed aIter the reports and as
European leaders agreed to expand a bailout Iund to $1.4 trillion in a bid to tame the region`s debt crisis. The Standard & Poor`s
500 Index rose 2.5 percent to 1,273.15 at 9:39 a.m. in New York. The weekly comIort index declined in all three
oI its components. The measure oI Americans` views oI the current state oI the economy Iell
to minus 90 last week Irom minus 85.8 in the prior period. The gauge oI personal Iinances
dropped to minus 11.6 Irom minus 7.7. The buying climate index declined to minus 51.8 Irom
minus 51.5. Positive ratings oI the U.S. economy dropped to 5 percent, the lowest since April
2009, Irom 7.1 percent the prior week. 'Indeed, more than two years aIter the recession oIIicially ended, consumer relieI is
nowhere in sight, Gary Langer, president oI Langer #esearch Associates LLC in New York, which compiles the index Ior
Bloomberg, said in a statement. 'Long-term unemployment, underemployment and the still-lagging
housing market all help explain the dire state oI consumer sentiment. The Bloomberg comIort index,
which began in December 1985, has averaged minus 46.2 this year compared with minus 45.7 Ior all oI 2010 and minus 47.9 in
2009, the year the recession ended, the report showed. Other data point to erosion in conIidence. The Thomson #euters/University
oI Michigan preliminary index oI consumer sentiment dropped in October as Americans` outlooks Ior the economy and their
Iinances slumped to the lowest level since 1980. The ConIerence Board`s conIidence gauge slumped this month to the lowest
level since March 2009. Positive ratings oI the U.S. economy dropped to 5 percent, the lowest since April 2009, Irom 7.1 percent
the prior week. 'Indeed, more than two years aIter the recession oIIicially ended, consumer relieI is nowhere in sight, Gary
Langer, president oI Langer #esearch Associates LLC in New York, which compiles the index Ior Bloomberg, said in a statement.
'Long-term unemployment, underemployment and the still-lagging housing market all help explain the dire state oI consumer
sentiment. The Bloomberg comIort index, which began in December 1985, has averaged minus 46.2 this year compared with
minus 45.7 Ior all oI 2010 and minus 47.9 in 2009, the year the recession ended, the report showed. Other data point to erosion in
conIidence. The Thomson #euters/University oI Michigan preliminary index oI consumer sentiment dropped in October as
Americans` outlooks Ior the economy and their Iinances slumped to the lowest level since 1980. The ConIerence Board`s
conIidence gauge slumped this month to the lowest level since March 2009. 'We see a challenging economy and
pressure on consumer spending continuing, Dorvin Lively, chieI Iinancial oIIicer oI consumer-electronics retailer
#adioShack Corp., said on an Oct. 25 conIerence call with analysts. The Fort Worth, Texas-based consumer-electronics retailer
reported weaker-than-projected third-quarter earnings. About 76 percent said it was a bad time to purchase goods and services
they want and need, today`s conIidence Iigures showed. The share has exceeded 70 percent since early 2008, the longest such run
44
on record. Some 56 percent oI Americans said they had a negative view oI their Iinances, the most
since May and Iive points Irom the all-time high set in une 2009. Consumer sentiment among homeowners
declined last week, approaching the lowest on record. Federal #eserve Bank oI New York President William
C. Dudley this week said Ialling home prices pose 'a serious impediment to a stronger economic recovery. President Barack
Obama unveiled a plan to let homeowners reIinance mortgages regardless oI how much their houses have dropped in value,
expanding a government eIIort to chip away at one oI the economy`s most unyielding problems.
45
Collapse Inevitable
Collapse inevitable - slow growth, European dysfunction, market instability
Financial News 10-31, 'Experts downbeat on global economy, http://www.Iinancialnewsusa.com/Iinance/archives/24453-experts-
downbeat-on-global-economy
Business leaders and Iinance experts gathered in Italy oIIered a downbeat assessment oI the global economy
Friday -- with several predicting another recession due to a calamitous cocktail oI sluggish
growth, eurozone dysIunction, and Iinancial market volatility. The year's events -- Irom natural
disasters and violent uprisings to Iears oI debt deIaults -- have not only sent shock waves through the Iinancial world but also
caused a slump in conIidence among consumers and industry. "There is a signiIicant probability oI a
double-dip recession," pronounced New York University economist Nouriel #oubini, in opening remarks that lived
up to his nickname oI "Dr. Doom" -- earned Ior Iorecasting a Iinancial crisis years beIore the 2008 crash, even as many
reveled in the boom times. On this occasion #oubini seemed to reIlect prevailing sentiment at the annual Ambrosetti Forum
on the shores oI an overcast Lake Como -- although some Ielt that at least the emerging economies and a Iew countries in
northern Europe would do Iine. Much oI the concern Iocused on the United States. "The numbers that we've seen
recently Ior the U.S. on manuIacturing, on construction, on consumers' sentiment tell me
that the odds have gotten much greater that the U.S. is going to continue to decline and that we
are going to be in a Iormal recession beIore the end oI the year," Harvard University economic proIessor Martin Feldstein, a
member oI the President Barack Obama's Economic #ecovery Advisory Board, told the Associated Press. #oubini blamed
the mostly unexpected events oI 2011 -- the Arab Spring Iueling oil prices, the turmoil in Greece spreading through Europe,
the apanese natural disasters upsetting global supply chains and "signiIicant worries about the U.S. system and the political
Iight (over the debt ceiling) between the Democrats and the #epublicans." Because oI this series oI shocks, he estimated
advanced economies had reached a stall speed oI around 1 percent annual growth, a Iigure that is lower than oIIicial
expectations in many countries. #oubini said that governments and central banks, which have already made multitrillion-
dollar stimulus moves, had no more "bullets." The gathering opened amid growing concerns over a slowdown in
manuIacturing -- the main pillar oI growth in developed economies in the years since the global Iinancial crisis -- and about
European banks' exposure to sovereign debt. Global stock markets slumped Friday aIter an oIIicial
report showed the U.S. economy had Iailed to create new jobs in August, reigniting Iears that
the world's largest economy may be heading back into recession. "The market is
Iorecasting two years oI recession," said Italian economy analyst Gianluca Garbi.
46
Double Dip Now
Eurozone failure will cause a double dip-experts agree
The China Post 10/26
StaII #eporter, The China Post, 'Eurozone Iailure could lead to 2nd recession: economist,
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/business/europe/2011/10/26/320949/Eurozone-Iailure.htm
PE#TH, Australia -- The world's advanced economies Iace a more than 50-percent chance oI
plunging into recession in the next year as the eurozone crisis rattles markets, an economist
dubbed 'Dr. Doom said Tuesday. New York University economics proIessor Nouriel #oubini said without
meaningIul reIorm by European leaders, the eurozone could start to Iall apart and lead to
another Iinancial meltdown worse than in 2008. The severity oI the downturn hinges on
whether the eurozone could avoid a messy break-up as Greece and other nations struggle
with crippling debt. #oubini, who earned the 'Dr. Doom moniker Ior predicting the last global
economic crisis long beIore it hit, also warned China Iaced a 'hard landing and could not
maintain its status as the world economy's growth engine. 'In my view, there's a signiIicant
probability, more than 50 percent, that over the next 12 months , he told a Commonwealth business Iorum in
Perth. 'Whether you call it a double-dip recession, a continuation oI the Iirst recession or a second recession doesn't matter,
it's semantic. #oubini said much depended on a meeting oI European Union nations this week that will seek to thrash out a
deal to avoid a Iull-blown Greek deIault and limit contagion within the eurozone. He said markets were looking
Ior policies that would kickstart real economic growth in struggling eurozone countries,
rather than 'Iinancial engineering that saw wealthy EU nations take on the debt burden oI poorer ones. Unless
Europe's leaders enacted serious changes the eurozone could start to crumble, potentially dragging
down the world economy in the same way the collapse oI U.S. investment bank Lehman
Brothers did in 2008, he said. 'In a situation where it becomes disorderly, with deIaults by a number oI countries and
a resulting exit oI a number oI states Irom the eurozone and its eventual break-up, the shock that could occur ...
could be as large, iI not larger, than the Iall oI Lehman in 2008, #oubini said. 'A recession that
is severe in advanced economies, the collateral damage even on emerging markets could be signiIicant.
#oubini recommended devaluing the euro to stimulate exports Irom the eurozone and slashing interest rates. 'II they
were serious about restoring growth in the short-term, they would cut rates down to zero,
he said. While China is oIten seen as one oI the world economy's bright spots, #oubini said the prospect oI recession in
Europe and the United States underscored the 'unsustainable nature oI its export-driven growth model. He said
dwindling demand Ior Chinese goods in cash-strapped advanced economies would leave it
vulnerable, exposing high levels oI bad debts the country's Iinancial sector has made in
areas such as real estate. 'There could be a hard landing in China over the next two or three years,
he said. 'There's not a single episode oI coming out oI an over-investment boom with a soIt landing.
Double-dip recession coming now-Eurozone crisis and China growth prove
Curran 10/25
Enda, #eporter, Market Watch, '#oubini sees double-dip slump in major economies, http://www.marketwatch.com/story/roubini-
sees-double-dip-slump-in-major-economies-2011-10-25
PE#TH (MarketWatch) -- Nouriel #oubini, the economist best known Ior predicting the global
credit crash, said Tuesday the advanced world is sliding toward another recession and Europe
could experience a series oI sovereign deIaults triggering market disruption on a scale witnessed aIter
the crash oI Lehman Brothers in 2008. The U.S.-based economist also warned that China's growth path
is unsustainable and a massive banking crisis and hard landing in two years time is possible, robbing the world oI it's
major growth engine. His bleak outlook comes as Europe's leaders inch toward a deal to shore up the euro zone and the
region's banks. "There's a signiIicant probability there's going to be another recession in most
advanced economies ," #oubini told business leaders gathered here Ior the Commonwealth oI Nations conIerence.
He singled out the euro zone, the U.K. and the U.S. as prime targets Ior economic contraction. #oubini
said regardless what agreement is reached in Europe, the single currency could still Iall apart
with Greece likely the Iirst to leave and the biggest risk is Ior a disorderly series oI deIaults in the euro zone stretching Irom
Portugal to potentially Spain and others. "The shock that could occur could be as large, iI not larger, than the disorder aIter
the collapse oI Lehman," said #oubini, who teaches at New York University and is sometimes known as Dr. Doom. He said
Europe's leaders must embrace much deeper Iiscal cooperation. For the world's second-biggest economy, China, which has
47
been enjoying growth rates above 9.0 helped by massive stimulus through the Iorm oI bank lending, #oubini said the
property sector there poses a severe risk and could turn sour, leaving both banks and the government burdened with heavy
debts. "There could be a hard landing in China over the next two or three years," he said. "There's not a
single episode oI coming out oI an over-investment boom with a soIt landing. #eal estate booms
always end up in busts
48
```Space Funding```
49
Climate Sats/Polar Orbiting Non Inherent? YUP
Polar orbiting satellites were just launched by NASA, solves your aff
McLaughlin 11/1
Brian, #eporter, Wired, 'NASA Launches a Next-Generation Weather Satellite, http://www.wired.com/geekdad/2011/11/nasa-
launches-a-next-generation-weather-satellite/
Early on Friday morning the night sky was brightened around Vandenberg Air Force Base by the launch
oI a Delta II rocket carrying the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental
Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project, or NPP, satellite into space. This marks the start oI the
next generation oI space-based weather and climate observations. The satellite carries Iive
science instruments Ior making various measurements oI the Earth and its atmosphere.
Four oI the instruments are brand new, and one continues a mission cataloging our planet`s
climactic changes. Visible InIrared Image #adiometer Suite (VII#S) Advanced visible and inIrared imaging and
radiometric capabilities. Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) Observes the Earth`s atmosphere across 22
channels in the microwave spectrum. These observations provide inIormation on the atmosphere`s
tempterature and moisture proIile. Cross-track InIrared Sounder (CrIS) Observes the Earth`s
atmosphere across 1305 inIrared channels using a Fourier TransIorm Spectrograph. This instrument also provides
inIormation on the atmosphere`s temperature and moisture proIile in concert with ATMS. Ozone Mapper ProIiler Suite
(OMPS) Extends the research and assesment oI ozone in the atmosphere. Clouds and the Earth`s #adiant Energy System
(CE#ES) A three channel radiometer that observes how much solar energy the Earth reIlects away and also how much
thermal radiation the Earth itselI emits. This is the sixth time the CE#ES instrument has been built and Ilown and will
continue the data record.
NASA just launched the NPP AND boosted funding
Stephen 11/3
Max, #eporter, United Nations Spider, 'NASA Finally Launches New Climate Satellite, Highlighting Need For Funding Monitoring,
http://www.un-spider.org/about-us/news/en/5415/2011-11-03t135200/nasa-Iinally-launches-new-climate-satellite-highlighting
In the predawn hours last Friday, the National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System
Preparation Project satellite (let`s just call it NPP Ior short) was launched Irom Vandenberg Air Force
Base in CaliIornia, Iive years aIter its originally scheduled launch date. The SUV-sized satellite, a joint eIIort
between NASA and NOAA, Ieatures Iive new instruments that will collect more detailed
inIormation about Earth`s atmosphere, land, and oceans and contribute to both weather and
climate Iorecasting. While the NPP launch should be applauded by scientists, Iorecasters, and anyone who relies on
accurate weather and climate data, it`s important to note the NPP is just a stopgap the satellite is designed to test
new monitoring instruments and serve as a bridge between NOAA`s current polar orbiting satellites
and the next generation, the oint Polar Satellite System (PSS), which is tentatively
scheduled Ior launch in 2017 pending Iunding. But that is a huge unknown. As we`ve elucidated beIore, many oI
the weather satellites currently in orbit are aging beyond their liIe expectancies and experiencing technical problems. Unless
the PSS is Iully Iunded, our ability to predict and prepare Ior extreme weather events will be compromised. NPP is
designed with a liIe expectancy oI just Iive years, meaning NOAA still expects there to be a gap in
coverage: The originally planned launch oI PSS has been set back due to delays in Iunding over the past couple oI years.
This means there will be a data gap between the time NPP begins to degrade Irom the harsh space environment and the time
PSS is successIully placed into operation. The length oI that gap depends on Iuture years Iunding and the agency remains
optimistic that current year Congressional support will carry over into a Iinal appropriation and outyear Iunding. NPP is the
Iirst probe ever designed to collect data Ior both short-term weather Iorecasting and long-term climate monitoring, and never
beIore has such data been so critical. NOAA Administrator Dr. ane Lubchenco explained, 'This year has been one Ior the
record books Ior severe weather . The need Ior improved data Irom NPP and the next generation satellite system under
development by NASA and NOAA has never been greater. They will enhance our ability to alert the public with as much
lead time as possible. Between severe drought and widespread wildIires across Texas, Hurricane Irene, devastating tornado
in Missouri, overwhelming Ilooding throughout the Midwest, and many others, by September 2011 we had already set the
record Ior most Federal Emergency Management Agency declared disasters. Each disaster comes with an astronomical price
tag. A study released earlier this year by the National Center Ior Atmospheric #esearch estimates that the bottom-line cost oI
the nation`s increasingly severe and destructive weather is an astounding $485 billion per year in the US alone, as much as
3.4 oI the country`s GDP. The current iterations oI the House and Senate spending bills that Iund
NOAA and NASA include a boost oI hundreds oI millions oI dollars Ior NOAA`s satellite
program Ior Iiscal year 2012, but both Iall well short oI the nearly one billion dollars the agency has requested.
50
NOAA polar satellite was just launched to fill the gap between current and future climate
monitoring satellites, solves the aff
Castillo 11/3
Dava, #eporter, All Voices, 'U.S. Launches the Most Advanced Weather Forecasting Satellite,
http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/10784524-us-launches-the-most-advanced-weather-Iorecasting-satellite
National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced last week that America`s
newest polar-orbiting satellite was blasted into space to orbit the earth, setting the stage Ior
enhanced weather data NOAA scientists will use to develop liIe-saving severe weather
Iorecasts days in advance. The NASA Earth-observing satellite Ieatures Iive new instruments
that will collect more detailed inIormation about Earth`s atmosphere, land and oceans.
NASA will use NPP as a research mission, while NOAA will use the data Ior short- and
long-term weather Iorecasting and environmental monitoring, according to the press release. Dr. ane
Lubchenco, under secretary oI commerce Ior oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator said, 'This year has been one
Ior the record books Ior severe weather. The need Ior improved date Irom NPP and next generation satellite system under
development by NASA and NOAA has never been greater. They will enhance our ability to alert the public with as much
lead time as possible. The NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite will orbit the Earth every 102 minutes, Ilying 512
miles above the surIace and monitoring atmospheric conditions below. The Iirst oI the NPP data will become available in
about 90 days and begin replacing data Irom the NOAA-19 satellite in the aIternoon orbit, passing over the United States
during Iull daylight hours. Advances Due to Partnership Between NASA and NOAA Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, assistant
secretary oI commerce Ior environmental observation and prediction and NOAA deputy administrator, hailed the successIul
launch oI NPP as a credit to the long-standing partnership between NOAA and NASA. 'This partnership works, Sullivan
said. 'For more than 40 years, we have worked together Iielding observation satellites to provide the nation with critical
environmental intelligence to protect lives and livelihoods. BeneIits oI Advanced Warnings In addition to saving lives and
property, advanced warning mechanisms can save money Ior the transportation industry. For example, weather-related
incidents and delays cost the airline industry billions oI dollars every year. A combination oI accurate, advanced Iorecasting
can bring signiIicant savings to the air transport industry, which will help them pass the savings on to consumers. Another
beneIit is Ior Iarmers, who know how weather patterns at various times aIIect day to day Iarming operations. Advisories can
prepare them on how to stage and protect crops, agricultural operations in progress, intervene Ior possible insect and diseases
sensitive to weather changes, the immediate impact on crop growth and long range seasonal planning. The NOAA provides
marine Iishing conditions Ior commercial Iishermen. The Marine Program deals with marine Iorecasts (winds and waves) and
observations sites in southern Alaska. Quality marine Iorecasts are oI the utmost importance to commercial Iisherman, with
two oI the Iour largest Iishing ports in the United States located in Southern Alaska. Cruise ships also depend upon accurate
Iorecasts during the tourist season. Marine Iorecasts can be Iound on the marine page, on the Alaska Weather Line. The
new satellite promises to increase the accuracy and extend the length oI time Ior advanced
warnings in order to save lives, property and better serve the needs oI commercial interests.

NASA just launched the NPP, solves your aff. AND it acts as a transition to future missions
that are ALREADY PLANNED for the end of the decade
Roop 10/31
Lee, #eporter, The Huntsville Times, 'New NASA weather satellite could put a Iog app on your smartphone,
http://blog.al.com/space-news/2011/10/newnasaweathersatellitecou.html
HUNTSVILLE, Alabama -- Imagine you're pulled to the side oI Interstate 65 at night in heavy Iog between Huntsville and
Birmingham. You're due in Montgomery and you're wondering how Iar the Iog extends. Does it get worse? Or maybe lighter
in a Iew miles? There should be an app Ior that in a Iew years based on new technology NASA is developing with the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville is working
on the science now. Instruments aboard NASA's NPP satellite launched Friday should produce the
most detailed images yet oI key weather Ieatures, leading to better Iorecasts and
understanding oI the weather and its impact on the planet, according to Dr. Gary edlovec oI Marshall's
Earth Science OIIice. "It adds additional instruments that are really cutting edge technologies,"
edlovec said Monday. Among the Ieatures the satellite should "see" in greater detail are water vapor,
clouds, land surIace temperature and sea temperature. NPP stands Ior National Polar-orbiting Operational
Environmental Satellite System Preparatory Project, and the satellite is actually a working
transitional model to test technologies the government hopes to fly on a
greater scale by the end of the decade. Weather Iorecasters won't have to wait until then Ior new data.
edlovec said his oIIice will begin sharing data with weather oIIices in a matter oI months. It will also develop
training so meteorologists can incorporate the new data in their Iorecasts. One oI the
instruments can provide a better picture oI air quality near Iorest Iires, changes in ground
vegetation that lead to drought, snow cover and sea ice coverage. "(Sea ice coverage) is
51
particularly challenging in Alaska and the North Pole region in the wintertime when there's
no sunlight there," edlovec said. The new instrument's inIrared scanners will solve that
problem. A low-light sensor on the satellite will use moonlight reIlected oII clouds and surIace Ieatures to map clouds, sea
ice and Iog at night. "A Iorecaster can more quickly and easily understand where Iog is developing and monitor that Iog (in
real time) and issue the various travel advisors and warnings that they need to do," edlovec said. "Down the road, as
technology changes, this technology will be available to the public on smartphones and
web apps." The Huntsville oIIice working with NOAA is located on Sparkman Drive in the National Space Science and
Technology Center. NASA scientists and University oI Alabama in Huntsville researchers and students will team up on the
project. The Delta II rocket that launched the satellite was built by United Launch Alliance in Decatur. There's another
Alabama connection to Friday's launch. The same Delta rocket also carried AubieSat-1, a small research satellite designed
and built by Auburn students.
52
AT: New Laser Tech Solves Debris
New laser technology cannot be used to clean up debris
The Star 11/2
#eporter, 'It`s not science Iiction: NASA Iunding tractor beam technology,
http://www.thestar.com/business/sciencetech/article/1079927--it-s-not-science-Iiction-nasa-Iunding-tractor-beam-technology
'Though a mainstay in science Iiction, and Star Trek in particular, laser-based trapping isn`t
IanciIul or beyond current technological know-how, head researcher Paul Stysley said. Stysley and his
team Irom NASA`s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. have identiIied three diIIerent approaches Ior
transporting particles, as well as single molecules, viruses, ribonucleic acid, and Iully Iunctioning cells, using the power oI
light. 'The original thought was that we could use tractor beams Ior cleaning up orbital
debris, Stysley said. 'But to pull something that huge would be almost impossible at least
now. That`s when it bubbled up that perhaps we could use the same approach Ior sample
collection. NASA and the researchers say it`s akin to 'a vacuum using suction to collect and transport dirt to a canister
or bag.
53
No Space Funding Now/NASA Cuts Now
NASA budget being slashed, means our disads provide a unique way that the plan would
change the status quo
Orlando Business 1ournal 11/4
StaII Writer, 'Experts expect NASA budget cuts, http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/news/2011/11/04/experts-expect-nasa-
budget-cuts.html
With Congress under pressure to reduce the Iederal budget, NASA won't get the $18.7
billion requested in the 2012 budget, reports Florida Today. Congressional leaders must Iind a
compromise between the $16.8 billion approved by the House and the $17.9 billion
approved by the Senate. With Iunding less than the budgeted amount, the agency will have
to cut back on some programs, including Mars exploration and the Webb telescope. In other
spaceIlight news: At the SunComm 2011 conIerence held yesterday in Cocoa Beach, space program leaders discussed how
Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station can be used by commercial spaceIlight companies. The Mars
Science Laboratory is on a launch pad at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, reports #euters. The $2.5 billion spacecraIt is
being prepared Ior a Nov. 25 launch aboard an Atlas V rocket. It contains Curiosity, a rover the size oI a small car.
NASA budget cuts coming in the squo-no new space spending
Bosch 10/27
Torie, #eporter, Slate.com, 'Does Obama`s New Budget Doom NASA?,
http://www.slate.com/blogs/Iuturetense/2011/10/27/nasadoomedbyobamasnewbudgetarguesspaceexplorationexper.html
In the Washington Times today, #obert Zubrin, author oI The Case Ior Mars: The Plan To Settle the #ed Planet and Why
We Must, sounds a scientiIic alarm: The Obama administration plans to massively cut
Iunding Ior NASA`s planetary exploration program. Zubrin writes that Obama`s 2013 budget
would permit the continuation oI a couple oI projectsthe MAVEN orbiter and the Mars Science
Curiosity Labbut would otherwise leave planetary exploration without much oI a budget. The
space astronomy program, too, Iaces deep cuts. This is 'an oIIense against science and civilization, Zubrin
writes; slashing the budgets oI the planetary exploration and space astronomy programs 'portends the destruction oI the
entire American space program. Without those two divisions oI NASA, the agency will be weakened,
vulnerable to complete elimination. Zubrin vigorously disputes the idea that such cuts are necessary
given the government`s Iinancial straits. NASA, he says, 'helps the economy through scientiIic discoveries, technological
innovation and the inspiration oI youth to pursue careers in engineering. Zubrin has elsewhere spoken in Iavor oI private
space entrepreneurship, saying in uly, 'NASA's astronauts have gone nowhere new since 1972, but these Iour decades oI
wasteIul stagnation need not continue. II President Obama were to act decisively and embrace |private ventures|, we could
have our Iirst team oI human explorers on the #ed Planet by 2016. But his Washington Times piece makes
clear that he still sees a role Ior NASA even iI private enterprise enters space exploration.
54
```NATO-U.S. Relations```
55
Relations Low
US no longer supports NATO-relations low
Ashdown 11/01
Paddy, British politician and Iorm British Marine, 'Europe`s Iree ride on the back oI NATO is over, The Telegraph,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/deIence/8862810/Europes-Iree-ride-on-the-back-oI-Nato-is-over.html
These are conIusing times Ior supporters oI Nato. On the one hand, the alliance has completed its mission in
Libya without a single casualty. On the other, its Iuture looks less certain than ever in the Iace oI Iiscal
austerity, increasingly uneven burden-sharing between members, and America`s dwindling
Iaith in its utility. The Iact that the US Ieels this way is understandable. In 2000, America`s
share oI Nato deIence spending was around 50 per cent. Today, it has risen to 75 per cent. With
peace at home, many European nations have redirected spending towards other priorities, Iree-
riding oII the US when it comes to threats overseas. And this problem is set to get worse, since
every European Nato member is set Ior severe deIence cuts including France, whose own
equivalent oI Britain`s deIence review begins next year. This decline in capability has come about not just
because we are spending less, but because we continue to spend badly. Military Iunding is channelled through dozens oI separate
national programmes and structures, creating enormous duplication and Iailing to achieve economies oI scale. While Europe
has halI a million more military personnel than America, it can deploy just a Iraction oI them
overseas. Nato is also being weakened by changes in US Ioreign policy: as the then deIence secretary,
#obert Gates, said earlier this year, his country is starting to look west as much as east. What
America sees in Nato is yesterday`s vision oI the Iuture: allies with declining capabilities,
reluctant to put troops in harm`s way, and an institution ill-suited to addressing US interests
especially with deIence cuts looming in Washington as well. To see where this is leading, consider what happened
in Libya.
Libya mission killed relations
Klaussner 10/31 (Miriam, 'Mission accomplished?: Taking stock oI NATO's Libya legacy, Arab World
Publications, http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,15499330,00.html)
OI the 28 alliance members taking part, only 12 were directly involved - led by Britain, France
and the United States. Germany did not vote Ior the mission in the UN Security Council, something
that has proved to be a source oI irritation among the allies. NATO aircraIt Ilew 26,000 sorties over
Libya since the end oI March, allowing NATO to enIorce the No-Fly Zone and bomb GadhaIi's troops and weapons
caches - paving the way Ior the rebel takeover. Not a single NATO soldier was killed during the mission, although
the number oI Iighters killed on the ground in the Iighting between the sides remains unclear. It could be tens oI
thousands. Without doubt, the NATO mission in Libya appeared to be great success Irom a military
point oI view, according to Thomas ger, ProIessor oI International Politics at the University
oI Cologne, Germany. "Politically, however, it appears quite diIIerent," he told Deutsche Welle.
"The Libya resolution has caused a deep riIt between those who were in Iavor - Britain, France
and the USA - and those who abstained Irom the Security Council vote such as Brazil, China,
India, #ussia - and Germany." The mission and subsequent bombing oI Libya Iailed to gain support Irom
various nations In addition, the European Union has good reason to Ieel embarrassed, as it once again Iailed to
speak with one decisive voice. "The EU was not in a position to deal with a crisis right there on its own doorstep,"
he said. "The mission will exert a heavy diplomatic price." Overstepping the mark In any case, ger
contends, the NATO operation over Libya should not be seen as a model Ior the Iuture. Clearly,
not all missions can be conducted Irom the air with relatively low risk and without ground troops. According to the
Iormer US deIense secretary #obert Gates, the Libyan operation had made the problems oI NATO
particularly visible. There were some NATO states, he said, that were prepared to shoulder their share oI
the burden and the risks oI operations. Then, Gates said, there were others that wanted the beneIits, but none
oI the risks. ger sees a Iurther problem in that, as he argues, NATO overstepped the UN mandate. UN Security
Council #esolution 1973 authorized "all necessary measures" to protect the civilian population oI Libya Irom
attacks by GadhaIi's troops.
56
```Riders```
57
AT: Riders

Riders wouldn`t be attached to the plan-just political posturing and too partisan
Russert 11/1
Luke, #eporter, NBC, 'Policy Iights could mean another shutdown threat,
http://Iirstread.msnbc.msn.com/news/2011/11/01/8584534-policy-Iights-could-mean-another-shutdown-threat
At the heart oI this Iear lie the riders. They are routinely attached to appropriations bills,
though they oIten have nothing to do with Iunding the government. For example, during the last
showdown earlier this spring, the issue oI abortion and whether or not groups like Planned Parenthood should be
eligible Ior Iederal Iunds played a central role up until an 11th hour agreement was reached. Sensing
these types oI issues could come up again, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) has sent House Speaker
ohn Boehner (#-OH) a letter asking that controversial riders not be included in any budget
deal. 'While not all policy riders are objectionable, many oI those included this year are not only
controversial but blatantly partisan," Hoyer wrote. "Included riders would block the
implementation oI the AIIordable Care Act, roll back important clean air and clean water
protections, and place new restrictions on women`s access to a Iull range oI medical and
health services, among others." Last month Boehner dismissed talk oI policy riders saying
they had been included in appropriations bills Ior years. A House GOP aide tells NBC News, 'The
Democrats who run Washington are trying to pick a Iight on unrelated issues because they
can`t Iace the Iacts: we aren`t going to get our economy moving again and create jobs until
we get government spending under control.
58
```Covert Passage```
59
AT: Plan is Covert/Secret
1. Nothing is covert-the plan would be leaked and Congress would still know about it
PAUL C., 'THE P#ESIDENT`S AGENDA: DOMESTIC POLICY
CHOICE F#OM KENNEDY TO CLINTON, THI#D ED, OHNS HOPKINS UNIV.
P#ESS, PG 5
Within the nesting set oI items both 'in accordance with the President`s program and the subject oI White House attention,
there is a Iinal set oI items that are central presidential requests. These are the President`s
personal priorities, the ideas discussed and reIined in the Oval OIIice. These are the items
that absorb the Present`s time and expend the greatest resources. They are uniquely
'presidential. An administration may choose to identiIy the agenda in a public statement,
as Kennedy did in a press conIerence scarcely two weeks Iollowing his election. An administration may
underscore its agenda in a major address to Congress, as Nixon did when he announced his Six Great
Goals in his 1971 State oI the Union message. In other years and other administrations, the agenda might not be
openly publicized, but it is always known to the key participants. The executive staII
knows, the press knows, and the Congress knows.

2. Modern technology has made the suppression of information impossible
Kurasawa 4
Fuyuki, Assistant ProIessor oI Sociology at York University, 'Cautionary Tales, Constellations Vol 11 No. 4
None oI this would be possible without the existence oI global media, whose speed and range make it
possible Ior reports oI an unIolding or upcoming disaster to reach viewers or readers in most
parts oI the world almost instantaneously. Despite the highly selective character oI what is deemed
newsworthy and state and commercial inIluence on what is broadcast, several recent attempts to hide evidence
oI acts oI mass violence (Tiananmen Square, East Timor, Chechnya, etc.) and crises (e.g., during the Chernobyl
nuclear accident in the Soviet Union or the SA#S outbreak in China) have Iailed; Iew things now entirely
escape Irom the satellite camera, the cellular telephone, or the notebook computer. And
although the internet may never become the populist panacea technological determinists have been heralding Ior years, it
remains a key device through which concerned citizens and activists can share and spread
inIormation. While media coverage almost always Iollows a crisis rather than preceding it, the broadcast oI shocking
images and testimonies can nevertheless shame governments and international organizations into taking immediate steps. The
CNN or BBC eIIect,` to which we should now add the Al-azeera eIIect,` is a surprisingly powerIul Iorce in impacting
world public opinion, as the now notorious Abu Ghraib prison photographs remind us. The possibility that the threat oI media
exposure may dissuade individuals and groups Irom enacting genocidal plans or reckless gambles with our Iuture is one oI
the lynchpins oI prevention in our inIormation-saturated age.

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Shawnee Mission East Debate 2011

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